Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Underachievers, Buy or Sell, 1B Replacements

Episode Date: May 18, 2017

After starting the show with our weekly Matt Harvey debate, we talk about some hot-hitting first basemen who could help Freddie Freeman/Miguel Cabrera owners (8:35). Also, is Zach Cozart really this good (18:15)? ... It's Underachievers Day (32:00) on today's episode as we look at six players who just aren't getting the job done. Are Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen replaceable? Has Addison Russell just been unlucky? ... We play Buy or Sell (26:00), discuss surprising strikeout numbers (42:55), hype up David Phelps, look at fringey starting pitchers (46:20) and preview today's matchups at the end of the show ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Well, anytime Matt Harvey pitches, you know it's going to be a fun podcast. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Are you hiring with ZipRecruiter.com? You can post your job to 100 plus job sites, including social media networks like Facebook and Twitter, all with a single click. Try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. That's ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. All right. Non-zero chances back together. Adam Azer, at Adam Azer as he are on Twitter. Heath Cummings at Heathcoming Senior at Heath Cummings SR at CBS Scott White and at C-Towers CBS. Okay, let's do our favorite segment. Three people disagree about Matt Harvey and Adam doesn't commit to an opinion. Go ahead, guys.

Scott had to show up for the podcast today just to defend Matt Harvey. He knew that he's not supposed to be on the show on Thursdays, but he knew Matt Harvey pitch you. And he had to. He came running into the office wearing his Matt Harvey. Harvey jersey. Oh, you have a Matt Harvey? I don't have a Matt Harvey. That part is fabricated.

Hey, you'll be happy to know Scott White that I picked up Matt Harvey this morning in a league he was dropped in. Oh, well, I hope I have the opportunity to do that soon. I am all about Matt Harvey disappointing for the next several weeks. I would be perfectly fine with that because every time he doesn't go out and dominate, he becomes all the more affordable. and I think we're getting close to the point where people will think about dropping him, and I won't have to pay anything for him.

He's throwing 97, 98 miles per hour again. His command is all off, so of course he's not doing well, but it's only a matter of time, I think, before that gets back on track. Wow. Very interesting moment yesterday. Scott is the propaganda minister of the Democratic public of Matt Harvey. I didn't know if he was going to defend him today that he did. Very interesting.

No, it was established yesterday. in the first inning of that starts. As he gave up a triple and a double. I asked Scott at what point does his performance matter? And Scott basically said not this year. Like it does not matter if he's ever good this year. I will still believe in Matt Harvey. Is that true, Scott, this year?

I will still believe him. If he doesn't regain the command at any point this season, I will consider him a sleeper going into next season. of course there's some other injury. What about next season? Or he somehow loses velocity. I would date. Yeah, I mean, eventually, eventually there comes a point where...

Well, April next year will be too early in the year. Uh-huh. So, like, May 15th, one year from today. May 17th, 2018. My wife doesn't defend me as much as you can defend Matt Hart. Well, Justin Verlander. Justin Verlander. Yeah.

He maintained good stuff throughout a rocky two-and-a-half-year period, and suddenly he was back to Sa-Young-form. day of 2019? I don't know. I don't know exactly. I can't put, obviously his value is going to shift with perception, but. Here's what I'll say. I think it's going to happen at some point this year.

Otherwise, I wouldn't be so interested in acquiring him. What I will say is if I owned Matt Harvey, which I don't, and Chris is a fraud because he does and he won't trade him away. Nobody will trade him to me. But I literally, there is no trade. We all tried to come out. There might be now that Freddie Freeman's heard. Jared I call.

Maybe. Jared Ikoff or Matt Harvey, that's a good question. I'd rather have Ikev. I've dropped Harvey to about 50, 55 somewhere in my rankings. Oh, it makes it sound like it's lower. I pretty much decided I'm not dropping him any further. Whatever. He's not going down any more than that because...

Because you think I'm right to an extent. The performance doesn't really matter. It's all just... No, not because of that. Okay. Because I don't think there are very many pitchers. Like maybe when Matt's is fully healthy, I move him ahead of Harvey. I don't necessarily believe that Harvey's going to figure it out and ever being as good as he was before.

But there's still that chance and there aren't pictures below him. That's basically what I'm saying. You're just using different words. That's not really what you're saying. I have him 44th. How different is that really? I view him like Taiwan Walk. It's someone that like if he figures.

it out could potentially be good. But there's no reason to believe he will. Well, except that he's been amazing. No reason. Yeah, except that Matt Harvey was once one of the best pitchers at baseball. Taiwan Walker never was. It's a spotty record from what he's recovering from. Three years ago, he has a 486 ERA last year, where he actually, I will say,

pitched better than that. His peripherals indicated that he had a bit of better. And this season, coming off of a major surgery, he has a 5-5-6 ERA. and you can argue he's been lucky because he has a 642 FIP. Matt Harvey has arguably been the worst pitcher in baseball this season. He hasn't fits very well. Excuse me. He's been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball.

I'm not going to start him. I wouldn't be starting him right now. And his velocity's not where it was three years ago. It's back to where it was last year. He threw 97 yesterday and Ann Harvey did say it was the best he's felt in two years. So if you want to believe... That's been three times. If you want to believe, then you can believe.

If not, then you can be Chris. He's average 9.4.7 miles per hour with his fastball last year, or yesterday, which is where he was last year for the most part, and not where he was at his peak when he was averaging 96, 97 with his fast. Okay. So, anyway, to wrap this up, I dropped Francisco Leriano for Matt Harvey. Hopefully you all will have the opportunity to do something like that. I think even Chris would probably drop Francisco Leriano.

from Matt Harvey. I'm not on the DL yet. And I also think that Chris should really think about calling him the worst pitcher in baseball when Robert Giselman is his teammate. Robert Selman's not in the rotation anymore. But he pitched poorly out of the bullpen yesterday. Chris currently has Matt Harvey ranked higher than I do. Yeah, I need to update my ranking.

Wow. What a fraud. Lesson learned. Okay, welcome to the Thursday show, everybody. Here we go. We have a lot more to talk about, including today is Underachievers Day. I have six underachievers that people are not considering dropping, but they are underachieving. Christian Yelich, Addison Russell, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutcheon.

Of course, McCutcheon goes out and steals two bags yesterday. Kyle Schwaber, who hopefully is turning it around, and Dee Gordon, who is the number 18 second baseman. I'll get your thoughts on those guys. We've got some buy or sell for you, which I got through Twitter and one through email. We will talk about the standouts from yesterday, the big news, including the said, diagnosis for James and Tyone, but you know what? It's, you know, very, very treatable. So we knew that was likely to be the case, but he does have testicular cancer. You know, I just got to talk about that real quick because, you know, I kind of hate putting it this way, but I've gotten a lot

of questions and I've somewhat ignored them on dropping James and Tyone. What should fantasy owners do? It's, that's an impossible question to answer. We just don't know what it means. He was cleared yesterday to begin throwing again and working out. But how do we say whether he's going to pitch again this year? I would be trying to hold for now. I'd be trying to hold probably for now. I mean, you could put him on the DL. If you're out of DL spots,

I mean, it would just depend on how many pitchers you have on the DL. If he's the only player of my team that's on the disabled list that I don't have room for on the DL, then I'd probably keep him. If you're one of those teams with five guys in the DL and two slots, then you'll probably drop them. I think we might get more of a timetable on James and Tyone fairly soon. So if you could wait a week maybe, that might be a good idea. Okay, Wednesday standouts.

What did you guys think of Matt Harvey yet? Who stood out to you on Wednesday? Chris Towers, why don't you kick it off? Can someone else go? Keith Cummings, why don't you kick it off? Who stood out to you on Wednesday? Scott's ready. I'm ready.

I'm ready. I've been wanted to – I missed my chance. to talk about this guy Tuesday. I want to talk about him now. Justin Smoke at only, I think, 27% ownership. He is a highly available Freddie Freeman replacement if you're in the market for one, which I imagine a lot of people will be. That looked like a bad injury. We don't know the extent of it yet, but even if it's just a bruise, D.L. Stens probably in order. So Justin Smoke, four home runs in his last seven games, nine overall. Now, Justin Smoke is a lot of been a bad player in fantasy.

Hitting home runs wasn't necessarily his problem, just hitting any other type of hit was an issue. His strikeout rate is way down this year. And that's not the explanation in and of itself. There's an explanation for why the strikeout rate is down this year. Matt, Justin Smoke came up as a top prospect for the Rangers during the height of the money ball era when walks were all anybody cared about from hitters.

So he was naturally one of those hitters who, he walked a lot in the minors. He worked the count a lot in the majors. And, you know, that seemed like a good thing. Now he has made the adjustment looking for fastballs earlier in the count so that he doesn't leave himself vulnerable to a pitcher's off speed arsenal, breaking balls and such. And he's having a much better time hitting the ball and hitting the ball with authority as a result. It makes sense because, you know, in the minor, leagues, a lot of pitchers are basically only throwing fastballs. So you can work deep in the count and not have that much of an issue still remain an elite prospect. But in the majors,

he had more trouble and it's taken him a long time to figure it out. So I feel like it's another Yonder Alonzo situation, guy who was once a top prospect, went a long time without living up to his pedigree and then makes an adjustment that allows him to take off, Justin Smoke might be doing that this year. Okay, Smoke is 27% owned. He is the most added first baseman right now. If we look at the top five, most added first basement, and we consider that Freddie Freeman, as you guys mentioned, left with the guy hit by a pitch on the wrist yesterday, and

Miguel Cabrera has a grade one oblique strain and is expected to miss a few days, and I think we all should be a little skeptical about that. It's an oblique strain. So people should probably be looking for first baseman right now. Also, Yanor Alonzo, who happens to be the second, the second most added first baseman left with an injury, that one might just be minor. But the other four, other than Alonzo in the top five, are Justin Smoke, Logan Morrison, who homered again yesterday, Justin Boar, and Tommy Joseph. They're all pretty available. They go from 27% owned to 41% own.

Smoke, Logan Morrison, Justin Boer, and Tommy Joseph. Who would be your top two in that group? Smoke and Joseph. Yeah, I guess. Yeah, I have not, I don't have any Freddie Freeman. The only place I have Miguel Cabrero is where Team Crease drafted him, unfortunately. So I'm not probably going to be adding any of these guys, but I guess Smoke's the hottest right now. I'd rather have Joseph than Smoke.

I just, I don't buy it with Smoke, like the track record's too long. Oh, but you buy it with Yonder Alonzo? though? Because he's made... Because you just like the explanation more. Well, because he's made legitimate changes. Wait, I didn't just explain a legitimate change. Scott was talking for a long time. But I don't know if that's a change

that's a change that sticks quite as much. You didn't say fly ball. Because it's... I didn't say. I didn't say the magic buzzword of 2017. I literally wrote a piece yesterday about someone who's doing really well while hitting fewer volleyball. But it's still, the flyball was still included in it. Thanks, guys.

Who, who, who, who? Yonder Alonzo. No, he was Monty Grondal. Or yeah, he was Monty Grondal, sorry. See, I read it. Both hurricanes, don't worry about it. So, actually, I was reading on... My point is Yonder Alonzo's doing something he is controlling.

Justin Smoke, like, okay, he's getting more fastball. He's attacking more fastballs early in the count. And if a pitcher throws him a curveball early in the count, does that just screw up the whole thing? We'll find out. We'll see. Find out if the pitchers adjusts in a way that It's sustainable for them.

But, I mean, Joseph's hot too. And, you know, he had a good OPS as a rookie last year. I think he's a worthy pickup. I did feature Morrison in today's waiver wire. Well, it won't go up until this afternoon. But Logan Morrison just more as a hot hand play. I mean, 11 home runs. I don't really buy the changes he's making, but I think he's usable right now.

And then he's not most added, but Josh Bell is only 53% owned. He hit his eighth home run. yesterday, which puts them on pace for more than 30 with good strikeout to walk ratio. Could stand to gain some batting average points, his batting, his bad-bip says. So I think he's also a good pickup. All right, that's Josh Bell. So there are some, it's just tough. I mean, it's not tough.

It's nice that we have a lot of corner infield options, but sometimes it's tough to justify rostering them, like, you know, just because it's a deep position. But with the recent injuries, it opens things up a little bit. guys get hot and I think, man, I've got to move them up in my rankings, even though I'm not really buying it. And I have a hard time getting them into my top 30 at first base. Who's so many first basemen? Who's at the end of your top 30 at first base? That's a great question.

I will get my first base rankings pulled up shortly, but I was not directly looking at them. I think Tommy Joseph is right in that range. You have them 33rd. You have Ryan Healy 30th. Yeah, I have Tommy Joseph 30th. Yeah, I have Healy 29th and Joseph 30th. So we're all about the same range. That's, you know, getting 30 deep at an infield position.

That's getting pretty hard to roster in a mixed league. I have Brad Miller 32nd. Like, the first base is just ridiculous. And you're playing a lot of those guys at different positions. But obviously, if you had Freddie Freeman, you were probably missing all the other pickups at first base because you're like, oh, I have first base solved. So they need to go to. that deep at the position. And you might as well just ride the hot hand.

I'm not sure the differences in the rankings are so significant. Just, you know, pick up who's contributing now. Chris, Heath, any standouts? We should talk about Garrett Cole's continued run of solid pitching. He doesn't look like the 2015 version of himself, mostly because the strikeout rate's not there. But he looks much improved from last year, I would say. Yeah, he's had a very good stretch, Garrett Cole.

How much Garrett Cole have you guys watched this year? Not a ton. I've watched a couple starts. I don't think he's pitched at Miller Park yet. I'm not sure how I feel about his breaking pitches. He still concerns me as a guy that just relies so much on his fastball and doesn't have this great... I'm just wondering if now's the time to sell Garrett Cole. He's throwing his fastball less than he ever has, actually.

How, what are the swinging strike rates good on the curveball or on the breaking pitches? I'm actually looking at his page right now. It looks like he's relying much more on the curveball than ever before. Okay. Another guy that's not striking people out even less than Garikol is or not striking them out more. I mean, Garikol's strikeout rate is still above after. Right. This guy's is not, but Andrew Cashner has a 245 ERA now.

And more walks than strikeouts. What's that? 21 walks, 19 strikeouts. for Andrew Castro. He only walked one and seven innings yesterday. Right, but he's striking out like two guys at start. And like he wasn't striking people out when he was throwing 97. We're not letting.

We're considering a like, we were making as many be a genie puns as we could because we thought he was going to be on our fantasy teams for a long time. And I think everybody's done with that. Like we're considering a lot of bad pitchers. This is a guy that's got it. But most of them don't have a 510 FIPP. I understand. So it's like Helixson.

You know? Off a 48-4-fip. Okay. Just completely ignore it. I'll look forward to the next terrible pitcher that we'll get convinced by one good start. Okay. How about this one? How about Matt Garza, 26%?

There we go. Yes. Much better than Andrew Cashner. I like Garza and better than Andrew Cashner. Yeah. I mean, this guy did change his approach. He being less aggressive with a fastball, using the breaking pitches more. More sliders.

More swings and misses. Yeah. And look, he faced the Padres and only struck out three of them last night, and he's not exactly tearing it up with strikeouts. Look, I'll be consistent here. I am also not buying Matt Garza. I'm not buying Matt Garza, but I'm not sure that he's not someone that you want to use in a good matchup.

I don't know that he's one of the worst options like he's been the last couple of years, Matt Garza. I'll put it this way. I'll keep Beagini over them. Okay. Both. All right, yeah, Beagini got roughed up by the Braves. That's a tough ballpark to pitch in.

Man, that is a hitter's haven right now, that new Braves ballpark. He had a one-whip in that game. So that kind of puts it in perspective. All right. You know what? Let's do this last standout, and then we'll move on with the show. We've got a lot of buy or sell to get to. How about Zach Cozart, guys?

Cozart, apparently he homers like every game at Wrigley Field, and he's done that twice in a row now. But he's 77% own. Cozart is the number three shortstop in points leagues. Number six in Roto. He's batting 3.50 with four homers, two steals. but 20 walks, 24 strikeouts, 11 doubles and 4 triples for Zach Cozart. Who's had some pop in the past?

So is this a legit breakout for Cozart? This started in 2015, really. He started walking more in 2015. He sustained that and continued to improve on it ever since. He's been hitting for more power over the last three seasons as well. Now, he only has four home runs, but he also has four triples and 11 doubles. So there's been plenty of power there for him.

And his hard hit rate has risen four years in a row now. I'll give you some comparisons. Zach Cozart or Didi Gagorius? Cozart. Yeah, I'll say Cozart. Cozart or Jed Jerko. Jerko. Jerko.

Scott? Actually, I think, yeah, I have Cozart ahead of him. Yeah, I think I'll say Cozart. And Peralta's about to come back. I worry a little about Jerko's playing time still. Cozard or Addison Russell. Russell. Russell.

All right. Let's do the big news. So Cabrera, Grade 1, Obliak Strain, a few days, they say. Freeman hit by the pitch on the wrist. Josh Donaldson did not suffer a setback but won't be back this weekend. So let's hope for this week, or next week, rather. And Troy Toulouewiczki was supposed to come back today. He needs a few more days.

Mark Malanson is back. I just want to say this that I picked up Matt Harvey, as I mentioned, and I could have dropped Derek Law. But I have Malanson. I'm keeping law. I just want to see like one or two good outings from Malanson because I hate when pitchers convince managers that they're ready to come back, which is what happened here. Who did that just happen with where he said he came? Oh, was Zach Britton. He came back early, went back on the DL.

So they were planning on activating Malanson Friday. Instead, they took him off the DL last night. He said he's ready. I'm going to be cautious. You all do what you want. I need to see something for him this weekend before I start up next week, I think. But it's just that he, Bruce Bochy said Malanson insisted that he's adamant that he's ready to come back. And that I think is kind of a little, just a bit of a red flag.

So anyway. Trevor Cahill on the D.O. with a shoulder strain. Do we have any timetable for this? It sounds like a short-term injury. But no, not a clear time table. Gregory Polanco is on the deal with a hamstring injury, and Adam Frazier has been off the DL, and he has led off in four straight games. So maybe NL only.

You want to take a look at Adam Frazier. And the Marlins are considering moving David Phelps to the rotation. Phelps, by the way, has been great in his last 10 appearances. He's allowed three hits and no runs, but five walks. And last year, as a starter, David Phelps had a 222 ERA and a 184 opponent's batting average in 24 and a third. He was really interesting last year when he made the jump, because he saw his velocity jump way up in the bullpen,

and it actually sustained when he moved over the rotation. And then after like four starts, he pretty much immediately got hurt. But he's interesting. Yeah. How about this? Be a genie or Phelps if Phelps goes to the rotation? Phelps. Yeah, I'd say Phelps.

All right. David Phelps. He's out there. He might be somebody. And he's obviously RP eligible. He might want to. They haven't made an official, but they need some rotation. I saw somebody pick him up in one of my deeper leagues last night, and I wondered what that was about.

Apparently, this is what it's about. Now, we know. Okay, this I just copied and pasted right from the AP stories. I didn't know the best way to phrase it. So a South Korean court upheld a suspended prison sentence for pirates infielder Jung Ho Gong over a drunken driving conviction, a ruling that may complicate his plans to rejoin the pirates for the baseball season. Oh, he's still planned to do that? Yes, so we can drop Jung Hong Kong.

Like three months ago. Okay, dokey. It wasn't quite three months ago, but... Let's see. Alex Rodriguez is going to make his color commentary debut tonight. That's going to be great. And Yohan Moncada is expected to go on the deal with a sore thumb. And Albert Pujol is left with hamstring tightness.

They're calling it precautionary, but just be aware. You might not be getting Pujolson your lineup for a while because he's got 10 road games coming up, and six of them are in NL. parks. So he'll be on the bench a lot, it seems, Albert Pooleholz. Can we go back? Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, go ahead. I didn't hear any outrage over

that possibly being on purpose. Oh, there were a couple bench clearing incidents. Right. Before that. Oh, this is the Kevin Pilar thing. No, the Bautista thing. Bautista bat flipped and Freeman said something to him as he was going around first base and Bautista turned and looked at him. Oh, really? And that caused

one of the incidents. I just can't imagine that it wasn't on purpose. You get mad at the Blue Jays, Scott. Freddie Freeman learned at the school of Brian McCann baseball policing. Well, I think it may have been interpreted as on purpose, maybe, but I mean, if you look at how he hit him, like, yeah, the back hand is a very small target to try and hit. Wouldn't you try and hit the shoulder or the bud or whatever?

It didn't look that intentional. No. It is, I will say, I did write a big. long piece about how Freddie Freeman's elite now, and it never got edited or published. Good thing. That just might die. Sorry, guys. So.

You know, kind of like a eulogy for him, yeah. How about the, I don't know if it's hypocrisy, but the, like, double standard of, yeah, but world baseball classics, great. Baseball players need to express themselves more. They need to make it more fun for the kids. and then Jose Bautista shouldn't flip that damn bat. I don't think the same people are doing those two things. The main thing I saw was like people were comparing,

because they were down like five when he hit that home run. Yeah. And people were comparing it to a safety celebrating a big hit when his team's down 35 to 0. Yeah, it's got it true. It looks dumb. Except that bat flips are always good and should be celebrated at all times. Like, I don't think of a bat flip as being really like something preconceived in a player's head. This one was.

This one was not a random bat flip. It was, yeah. It was epic. Aflips after every home run. So let's do some buyer sell, part one. We'll try to do a little bit more later. But first I got to tell you about ZipRecruiter. And that website, again, is ZipRecruiter.com slash strike.

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Just screen, rate, and manage candidates all in one place on ziprecruiter.com. And right now, our listeners can start forming their own winning team on ZipRecruiter for free. Go to ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. That's ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. Try it for free today at ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. Buy or sell, part one. First, this cool tweet from Aiden. I love this family feud stuff.

Aidan says, I'm in first place in my league and I'm beating my dad. He listens to the podcast, so you should read this on the show. Done. Thank you, Aidan. I thought you meant Family Feet the game show. Well, there's that, too. You missed that, Scott, by the way. We did Fantasy Feud this week.

I got crushed. Okay, now, buy yourself. Buy yourself. Tim Akri. Reese Hoskins will be the Trey Turner, Gary Sanchez of 2017. Hoskins is a mustache in competitive leagues. I don't want to call him a bust for 2018 yet. I think there's a chance that...

Well, I mean, you're disappointed right now because he got hurt. Yeah. I think that could absolutely happen in the second half. And he could be awesome, and people will overgraft him based on 200-plate appearances, and we'll go from there. It's very... Like, it reminds me a lot of Goldschmidt, his minor league ascension. Like, nobody was really giving him any credit until, like, the last days before he was. was called off. I know it's stupid to compare any minor league or two of a player as good as

Goldschmidt, but that's just what I always think of when I see somebody doing this. Hey, I don't know if you guys want to look at Gary Sanchez's page, but I've seen a lot of ground ball singles since he's come back. Maybe a little bit lucky. Yeah, he did crush a home run two days ago, but a lot of ground ball singles. I felt like he's top three catcher pretty easily. Is he top two, though? Borderline top three, a catcher, Scott. Is Gary Sanchez number two? Maybe? I just don't rather have a crore.

Okay. All right. Buy yourself from Ed. Megal Cabrera, top five first baseman. Finishes. Hard sell. So?

I sell. I don't know that it's a hard sell, but I sell. I don't think I have a ring. No. Freeman's out for three months. That might give him a shot. Not a hard sell.

It's still hard sell. Yeah, I've ranked out of the top five. Oh, I've had him eighth for about a month now. From Justin. Jose Abraeu. Buy or sell, Jose Abraeu, who finishes the year with at least 25. homers and 100 RBIs and a 290 batting average for the fourth straight year.

290, 25, and 100 for a brayu. 2 out of 3 ain't bad. Which one are you? I'm not going to give him 100 RBI. Yeah, I'm not sure where he's at right now. I know he's up to 7 home runs, which puts him on pace for at least that many home runs. I'll buy it. He's a little under the pace.

I'll buy it, though. Okay, we got Owen. Owen T. By herself, Garrett Cole finishes the season with a sub three. ERA and he's a top 15 starting pitcher. I got to sell the ERA and I'll probably sell top 15 too, though. That'll be pretty close. Yeah, I think I buy the top 15 and sell the sub three R.A.

Bye. Guys, I offer you my Jake Areeta for your Garrett Cole. Which button do you click? What's my record? You are three and three. I probably accept it. You take Arietta?

Yep. Yeah. Yeah. All righty. From Brad Green, Byer Sell, Bellinger and Conforto are second round picks next year. Whoa. Marksill. Yeah, that's...

Ask me again in August, but I'm selling for now. I'm going to rephrase it. Buy or sell, Bellinger and Conforto are fifth round picks in 2018. Ooh. Maybe one, but not both. I could see it with Conforto more likely. Right. Yeah.

I would still sell it right now, but it's certainly more possible. obviously. Who would you rather own, Bellinger or Conforto? Conforto. Conforto. Conforto. Buy herself from John. Wilson Contreras will get playing time and become a top five catcher. I'll still buy it. Yep.

I buy it also. Okay. And from Matthew? Are you going to check inside of him? That's kind of, yeah. Again, I'm a borderline top five catcher. Okay, there you go. From Matthew, buy or sell Cody Bellinger is a top 12 first baseman.

Sell, like we said earlier. The position is way too deep. Yep, I also sell. I got to pull up the first base ranks here because I'm thinking... We all just said we think Jose Bray who's going to finish with $2.90, $25, and $100. Do any of us have them in the top $12 in the top $12? I don't think so. The position's just...

Yeah, I have him 14. I have him 15. Wow. And Heath has him 15. I mean, when you start to consider guys that you're playing at other positions, maybe. Well, certainly Posey. Carpenter. I don't know.

Yeah, with Thames. I think Bellinger's basically must start now, and normally we're only including guys within the top 12 at an infield spot. But first base is, of course, different. And he's dual eligible. Yeah, he's a must-start outfielder, I would say. Okay. And Stephen from a remote island in the North Atlantic. Yeah, no idea.

Okay, thank you. Dear Pennywise, Bill, Georgie, and Richie. That was all from it? I know Pennywise is. They're redoing it. I'm very excited. I think it actually looks good. I cannot wait to see it.

Yeah, I'm pretty pumped. That was the first big book that I read. Pennywise was a punk band also. Maybe that's what they're referring to. That would mess you up if that was the first big book. I think it was 12. It was like 1,100 pages. It explains a lot.

It was awesome. By or sell, Andrew McCutcheon is back. Just joking. No, Sal. Just joking. By or so Josh Bell is heating up and becoming the power threat we thought he could be. I will buy that. I thought all the scouts.

Did you see that home run last year? Just the sound when it came off the bat in the moment and he hit the ball and you just felt something. Yeah, no, he's not. He has a 27% hard contact rate and a 28% home run to fly ball rate. No. All right, so we got two sales and a buy. I think that brings us to our underachievers for the day. Underachievers day, all right.

I'm going to tell you, an AMU. tell me what you think about him. Christian Yelich, and these aren't just like the slow start guys that, you know, we've talked a lot about Incarnazion and other players like that. Let's talk about some guys we haven't discussed all that much. Christian Yelich is batting 272, 323 on base, and just a 391 slugging percentage. Five home runs this year. You know, I looked at the contact rates, soft, medium hard contact rates. They look almost identical.

But, yeah, I don't know. You tell me, Christian Yelich, reason to worry here, or just a small? slow start or what? I view him as exactly the same guy he was coming into the season. I think he's actually moved up. I don't think I've moved. Well, I think he's moved up because other people have moved down, but I have not. I have moved

him neither up nor down. He's moved down because other people have moved up for me. Like Judge and Sinoe and Thames is the only person that's jumped him. They're all ahead of him. I think in Fordo I have ahead of Yelich now. What's up with Thames? He didn't play again last night. Strep throat.

Strap throat. I did not see that. By the flip. Spread from his legs to his throat? No, well, he's had a strep throat. He's been sick for like four days, actually. Thames Watch today. He's losing strength. Oh, no. Yeah, he is.

He said he's losing some strength. You know, he's been sick. So get well soon. That's okay. I got to tell you, Scott and everyone, if someone offered me Christian Yellich for Aaron Judge, I think I'd accept. Yeah, I would do. I would decline.

Give me the tracker. I don't, in Roto, I don't know that I would. Yeah. It might make a difference. In points, I would. In points I might play it safe and go yellage. I probably wouldn't do. It would probably depend on who I already owned, actually, because they're basically the same tier for me. It's really hard to trade same position, same tier guys. Yeah. Like that, at that point, it's just a coin flip. For some, for some reason, shooting myself in the foot by inaction bothers me less than shooting myself in the foot by pro action. I think that's like a natural human psychological trait. I think there's a term for it.

Yeah. Thank you, Doctor. Okay, Addison Russell. It'd be nice if Addison Russell, you know, ever hit. He's betting 220 right now with three home runs and two steals. And it wasn't very good last year, but I know there were some positive indicators. Scott, you had Russell as a breakout. Are you losing hope?

Yeah, a little bit. I am. But at the same time, if he's your starting shortstop, like how are you going to replace him he's he's still going to be a startable shortstop all year i think the babbips crazy low the strikeout rates even lower all right i need to look at this closer i just kind of answered off the cuff but he's also not hitting the ball hard at all he's a tired 3% tired from the hard hit rate although his soft contact rate is also down so yeah it's all right maybe i spoke too soon there is there is definitely a monstar's thing going on here um with the

Cubs and the Yankees, I think is the answer. Is that every player on the Yankees stole every player on the Cubs? Powers. I'm all for that. So you don't think that Addison Russell's drop-in-law? You guys said you'd take him over Zach Cozart. No, and looking at the peripherals, I'm actually even more encouraged than when I first started speaking about him 45 seconds ago.

I still have him as a top 12 shortstop, and the mid-teen short stops are so absolutely gross that I can't imagine ever moving in below them. So you wouldn't drop Russell for Ernan Perez? Nope. I've got him 18. Okay. Come on. All right, moving on to two outfielders, Adam Jones and Andrew McCutcheon. Two outfielders that I kind of think are very similar except McCutcheon walks, but they don't

stand out in any category anymore. And their home runs don't really stand out the way they used to. And I just think they are declining. and I don't understand the stubbornness with Andrew McCutcheon. He is so clearly in decline. So tell me... What did you say? Nobody's ever said he's not in decline, Adam.

Accept it. Like, he's... He's... He's free-falling! And there's a difference between done and in decline. Okay, go ahead. The pirates think he's just been unlucky, and for the most part, they are right.

He's got a 225. babb it. And a two... He's got an 18% strikeout rate. 214 batting average here. Not worried about him. He's going to hit 25-ish home runs.

He's going to have 80 to 100 runs in RBI. Is he? They got one of the worst lineups in baseball. He's going to steal 10 to 15 bases. Everything's going to be fine. Yeah, look,

he's not the 315, 950 OPS guy anymore. Nope. he's not an absolute must-start stud. But I'm probably still starting him. He's kind of killing... I think he's Team Creeth right now. Still pretty close to Mustard.

I think he's so replaceable, Andrew McCutcheon. Like, season long... No, he's not going to be replaceable. Season long, he's going to play, you know, 150-something games, and he's not going to be replaceable when you look... Oh, he's top 30 outfielder. Week to week, like, I'd play the hot hand. I'd play Brett Gardner over Andrew McCutcher.

It annoys me when we inconsistently apply these standards because you guys made the same case for Eric Cosmer being like a top 12 first baseman a couple years ago because he's finished as a top 12 a bunch of times. But it's mostly just that he's playing 150 games. If we don't think these guys are top 30 guys when they're playing, then they're not. I think Adam Andrew McCutcheon is. But we're applying these standards inconsistent. I disagree with you. I mean, you talk about what I just recently said about Eric Osmer. I said, Eric Hosmer is a by-low, this was like a month ago, Eric Hosmer is a by-low candidate in a league where you have to start a corner infielder because he's solid and at the end of the day he's going to put up his numbers in a rototype league like that. I never, and I said that Eric Hosmer doesn't even need to be, hold on, he doesn't even need to be rostered in like a 12-team points league because he is replaceable on a week-to-week basis. He is very similar to Andrew McCutcheon.

I agree with that analogy. I don't think I've applied the logic differently. We've been so many arguments folded in. into one here. It's hard for me to even keep up. I don't agree with much of what's being said here. I think I'll just leave it at that. I don't necessarily, not you specifically, but most people's, I don't necessarily believe in your ability week to week to pick the random outfielder that's going to finish below McCutcheon or the first baseman that's going to finish below Hosmer that's going to be better than them that week. I think if you play that game, you will be wrong more often than you're right, even if you're really, really smart. That's true. I don't agree. But I will say getting back to your original point about McCutcheon and Jones,

like if you've been aggressive on the waiver wire with outfielders, there's a good chance you've added Judge, you've added Conforto, you know, maybe you drafted J.D. Martinez or Ian Desmond, and they've since come back. Like Jones and McCutcheon, kind of like Yelich for me, they've both slid down my rankings because of all the changes that have happened at outfield early on here. But my opinion of them,

themselves hasn't necessarily changed. So yeah, they may be bumped out of must-start territory in three outfielder leagues for me, depending on what else I have at that position. I guess last thing on this is that Adam Jones was like an eighth, ninth round pick this year. Andrew McCutcheon was still a fifth round pick. And I just, I don't really get that. I feel like if you're going to value him, it should be like Adam Jones. It seems like people have recognized that Jones is a solid player that it's not spectacular

in anything anymore. And it seems like they don't feel that way about McCutcheon. Adam Jones also wasn't falling from as high a spot. Right. And I think that there was still, I still had hope that McCutcheon's batting average is going to bounce back to the 280-290 range this year. I still kind of think it should. Okay.

All right. And then Kyle Schwaber. Kyle Schwerber, is he turning it around two good games in a row? The Cubs have backed him. They have faith in him. He's still leading off. 24 walks is great. but 188 batting average.

He's just been an underachiever that Kyle Schwerber. Let me find the numbers, because I've been a Koshwarber skeptic. In the month of May, he has cut his strikeout rate to 18.6%. He has increased his ISO to 235. He has increased his hard contact rate to 45%. And yet he has a 1.30. 35 Babbitt. So basically, Kyle Schwerber has been the guy we hoped he would be in the month of May,

except that his batting average has not cooperated. And that means what? Coucherber's about to break out. He's fine. I don't think he's going to live up to the expectations some people had for him as, like, a must-start stud outfielder. But I think he's going to be very good moving forward. Bravo.

Finally, we have D. Gordon, who is the number 18. second baseman in both points and roto. Gordon is hitting 250, 304 on base, 308 slugging percentage, yak. He does have 12 steals. Yeah. So, he's giving you what you drafted him for, right? If I told you he had a higher walk rate than 2015, a lower strikeout rate, a higher line drive rate, and a higher hard contact rate. What would you say about D. Gordon?

That wasn't even that good in 2015, by the... 16 or 15? 15. Oh, he was very good then, sorry. Yeah, I would say partially he got really lucky in 2015, and partially he's been unlucky in 2017. Yeah, like he's probably got 30 to 40 points of Babbat progression coming. He's at a 291 right now. He's at 3.38 for his career. Yep. I think he's probably a 290 hitter.

And once that happens, I think he's going to be a must-start second baseman in Roto, and probably pretty... He's already must-start in Roto. But more beyond just the fact that he steals base. Because right now he's just a one category guy. I think he's going to be a three-category contributor moving forward. Yep. 290, 50 steals, 100 runs.

All right, then. All right, then. I'm a fire cell. There is your underachievers day. Thank you very much. Let's do, dude, where's my strikeouts? Parentheses, Rick Porcelo stole them. Rick Porcelo has a better K-rate than Clayton Kershaw and Steven

Strasberg. What is your reaction to that statement? Well, surprising. He's also has an enormous home run rate, which is also surprising. But, like, I just don't know what the standard, like, what it would take for me to not value Rick Porcelo as a top 25 starting pitcher, given how hard it is to break that threshold. I mean, he's eating innings for a really good team and getting strikeouts. So, I don't know.

It's been a mixed bag. He's been hard to figure out this year, but I'm not exactly discouraged. Well, when you look at Strasbourg and Kershaw, do you see anything that makes you think they just won't be as good as you expected this year? In Strasbourg's case, I believe, we talked about it a couple weeks ago. I think he's ditched his slider for the most part. Yeah, he's throwing it 10% less. That was a big swing and miss pitch for him.

His curveball is not really a big swing and miss pitch. So he's just, he's not going to get as many swing and miss pitches or swings and misses. And that's by design. He's during his slider less because he believes it played into the forearm issues he had last year. All right. So you think the strikeouts could legitimately be less than elite from him from Strasbourg? That would be my expectation, yes. Okay.

Guys, how about Johnny Quedo? Quato has a 450 ERA now. I think that, you know, the ERA is still inflated by six runs at Colorado, but he's just, you know, he's not having a great year. Any concerns about Quato? You look at the game log, and I feel like two-thirds of his starts are exactly what you expect from Johnny Quato. So I have a hard time getting concerned, even though it's led to an inflated ERA. Are you feeling Kyle Hendrix is back on track? He's got a 182 ERA in his last five starts.

The velocity is still not back, right? Like, not at all. Not according to what I read this morning. They said it's coming back, or it might be back. I think where he is for the season overall, I think he's got like a 3-5 ERA right now. That's pretty much where I would expect him to be moving forward. Kyle Hendricks.

Is it 3-5? I thought it was a little lower. It might have been lower. 335. Yeah, that's, yeah, in that range is certainly where I would expect him to be. All right, well, that's, I'll take that for a good team. A solid number three starter. Yeah.

Lance McCullors or Kyle Hendricks? McCullors easily. Yes. Dude, yes. Let's take McCullors, too. Fifteen walks for McCullors in 54 and a third. He is three scoreless starts in a row. He's cut his walk rate in half and doing great.

I think a league round ball pitcher now, too. But we do know that he's injury prone, so does that factor into your evaluation of Lance McCullors? A little, but I think it's earlier when I was talking about the changing pitching landscape and how we've only really seen one pitcher breakthrough as an ace level pitcher who wasn't there before. And it was James Paxton. I think we can add Lance McCullers to that group now safely.

I think we can probably add, you know, if we're stretching the definition of ace a little, we could probably add Michael Fulmer as well. Okay. And let's talk about these starting pitchers. The fringy starting pitchers from yesterday, and you tell me who you like from this list. Matt Shoemaker, Alex Cobb, are 75% owned each.

Do you think that's low for Shoemaker and Cobb? I do, especially for Shoemaker. I was pretty encouraged by this start. It got up to a very rocky start, but the defense wasn't helping him out. The strikeouts are there. The swinging strikes are there. I think Shoemaker's pretty close to a must-down. Yeah, I think so, too.

I've kind of come around on this. He's had bad bad luck this year, and his walk rate is completely out of character. If those both correct at once, then you're talking about very reliable pitcher, probably. And he's back to throwing the splitter a bunch. Yeah, Shoemaker, again, 75% own. He struck out nine white socks with 17 swinging strikes and six and a third yesterday. Alex Cobb, I always struggle with him. I feel like I never know when to start him and when to sit him,

but maybe I should just start Alex Cobb. Last four starts, he's a 263RA, but the strikeouts are so low. What do you think? I'll be very interested to see Alex Cobb's next start. I believe he threw 113 pitches in this one, which was the most he. thrown in several years. Let's get through the next one and then I'll start to get excited. Well, I think he's going to be a two-star pitcher.

Let's confirm that. Yes, the Angels and at the Twins next week. I'm starting him. Yeah. Shoemaker is at Tampa Bay and at Miami next week. Ooh, pick him up. 75%. I'm looking at Shoemaker's page again, and it looks like he hasn't actually had Bad Babbitt blood.

So I take that part of the evaluation. No, early in the season, he was... I think he was throwing his curveball a lot more. He was throwing his splitter a lot less. Like we've said a lot, he has one good pitch. He needs to throw it as often as possible. Once he does that, that's when I get excited about. All right, that's Matt Shoemaker, again, two starts next week.

What else we got here? Okay, a little bit deeper. Patrick Corbyn, Gnzales, Jesse Hahn, Joe Be a Jeannie. Had to do it. Patrick Corbin, Miguel Gonzalez, Jesse Han, Joe Be a Jeannie. Fultenevich, Arana, Arania, rather, Cashner, Garza, Christian Bergman for Seattle, who did a great job yesterday, and Yolishasin. Did I say any names? I mean, like Corbin is obviously much more owned than the rest. Right, he's the only guy that I'm really interested in having on my team. And even that is very borderline. I would drop Shoemaker for, or I would drop him for Shoemaker. Yes, yeah, but be a Jeannie back in the bottle.

Did you mention Alex Cobb in this group? He was within the Shoemaker group. Oh, all right, sorry. Well, what about Fultenevich? Fultenevich has kind of had like one bad start. Yeah, he's been... What was the comparison? I made a comparison to myself this morning,

and now I can't think of it. You know, a comparison I think actually makes a lot of sense is kind of like sub-peak Andrew Cashner, because, like, Andrew Cashner had a few good years and it was always like, man, with that fastball, this guy could really ramp that strikeout rate up and it just never really happened. I feel the same way about Fultonovic. Oh, you know what it is? Matt Harvey is currently Mike Fultenevich. That was the comparison. I was thinking to myself. Mike really mean to Mike Fultenevich. Mike Fultonovich is peak Tom Kohler, is what I was

thinking. But he's got, he's still got a 477 Fib. It doesn't sound like any of us feel very good about Mike Fultz. Yeah, it doesn't sound like that at all. Jose Orania would throw in the same bucket of just like guys that when you watch them pitch, they'll go stretches where they look really good. But there's just no sign that it's actually going to happen. He's got some added than Volquez in him. Sure. Okay, so anyway, back to, how about this, be a genie or Fultenevich? Who else is on the waiverware?

Probably be a genie. Yeah, I guess. Man, it's really hard. I don't think either are like unruly. rosterable. Like, you know, they're much better than Christian Bergman or Andrew Cashner or Rainia, Garza. I'm not sure that Voltaevich is much better than Andrew Kestner. Okay.

Or be a genie, for that matter. Should we finish with some buyer sell here, part two? Yeah, it can't be worse than that last two minutes was. Andrew McCuller's top 18 start. Yeah, I know. Did we talk about some bad pitchers or what? Start right. Sell Iglesias in your starting pitcher spot instead of those guys.

I think I just called him Andrew McCullors. Lance McCuller's top 18 starting pitcher. Buy it. I am 19, but there are some injured guys ahead of him, so yeah. I think I'm 20th, so I'll sell, but, you know, kind of a technicality. Josh Bell, best hitter on the Pirates. Sell. Sell?

I also sell. Who is the best hitter on the Pirates? Andrew McHutch. Ryan Bronze injuries linger all year, and he finishes outside the top 30 outfielders. I'll sell I don't have it ranked that way and you couldn't but I understand

I kind of want to buy it It's just it's so hard to actually predict injuries But he currently has one sure One that doesn't seem like a big deal But Byer sell Amir Garrett having a better season than Tanner Roark in a head-to-head points league Garrett better than Roark

I sell it I'm really skeptical of Garrett's success so far. I will sell it solely because I think Roark's going to throw a ton more. Yeah, especially in head-to-head. Buy herself from John. Greg Holland will finish the year as the National League saves leader. It's got a nice... It's kind of like 13 right now?

Head start. The Rockies have been smoking mirrors with their pitching so far, so I don't know that they're really as good as they've shown. But then again, they're getting John good. Gray back and Tyler Chatwood and Tyler Anderson may have underperformed a little. I'm still going to sell it. I'm not sure that he can get 51 to Top Wade Davis, so I will sell. Today, Thursday, May 18th, let's take a look at the schedule.

If you hear this podcast early, are you starting Tanner Roark? You're not starting Tyler Glass now, but Tanner Roark at Pittsburgh. 100%. Dylan Bundy at Detroit. Yeah. Anxiously. Well, no Cabrera, so that helps. Right.

There's a lot of regression due on both sides of that equation. The Tigers have been one of the unluckiest offensive teams in baseball. Jordan Zimmerman on the mound. We're not going to start him. Nope. All right, this is a fun one. Erman Marquez at Irvin Santana, Colorado at Minnesota, first of two today. Well, definitely Santana.

Yeah, I think I'd start both. I probably would, too. I don't, you know, if we're talking DFS is like a... We're talking daily lineup settings. Yeah, standard fantasy. It just seems too risky to start Marquez. I started Marquez. I've got a feeling, but we'll see if it works.

I mean, this is like an opportunity to see if he's going to be worth starting on the road. We got Phillies at Rangers, Nick Povetta, Martine Perez. Nope. Amir Garrett at the Cubs against John Lester. Just Lester. You must it. Zach Davies and Jared Cozart, Brewers at Padres. Nope.

Rockies at Twins, the nightcap. Tyler Chatwood, Jose Burrios. I'm starting Burrios. Yeah, and I think that's the only one. We got Marcus Stroman and Julio Taran, Blue Jays at Braves. I'll go both. Yeah, I'm starting them both. I'm worried one of them's going to get ejected in the first inning.

Yankees are at the Royals, Jordan Montgomery, and Danny Duffy. Sort of both. I don't know that I'd start Montgomery. I wouldn't against a different lineup, maybe. If you like Montgomery at all, he has the Royals and the A's at home next week in a two-start week. So you might want to pick him up before this start, because there's a good chance. Well, there's a chance that's good. He's interesting-ish.

His whip is so high. What's that? Do you think he's have seven games next week? I don't know. Right now we haven't listed as a. two-star pitcher, so I do not know what their schedule is. Jordan Montgomery has a 140 whip, just so you know. The Yankees do play seven games next week.

All right, six and one. Very excited. Let's see, Red Sox, a lot of games today. We have Velazquez making, Hector Velasquez making his debut against Sunny Gray, Red Sox at A's. I would prefer not to start either. At A's? Yeah.

I might. It's possible I'll start to Gray. I won it. Ah, man, who are these Mariner's pitchers? Sam Gaviglio against Dylan Covey. Yep. And Edinson Volquez and Hyunjin Ryu. Nope.

Oh, so the Dodgers are sticking with the six man. Yeah, pass. Yeah, I also. Marlins hit lefties well. And Stan has like a 1400 career OPS at Dodgers. Oh, yeah, he kills it there. He's going to hit three home runs off for you. Zach Cozart is to Wrigley Field as Jean-Card Losanthin is to Dodgers Stadium.

Important thing that you need to check out on the internet today, Adam. Someone tweeted a picture of Matt Holliday and Aaron Judge flexing. Oh. And Matt Holliday's bicep dwarf Aaron Joneson. Yeah, he's completely jacked. He's dad's strong. He is dad strong. Aaron Judge isn't a dad.

He has monster bikes. Matt Holliday's been carrying kids around for years. All right, guys. Thank you very much. This is the Thursday show. We'll come back tomorrow and get you ready for week eight. Wow. And much more on fantasy baseball today.

See you.