Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/22: Ranking Rookies, Fun With Fangraphs, Regression Candidates (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 22, 2018

"Hey, Real Quick" with two elite players (2:20) to start the show, then we're ranking rookies (7:35)! How do we rank Ronald Acuna, Walker Buehler, Gleyber Torres, Tyler O'Neill and Juan Soto? ... What history tells us about Miles Mikolas (19:05), how good Nick Pivetta can be (22:53), Jose Berrios' consistency (26:55) and Worryometer for Paul Goldschmidt (28:20) and Cody Bellinger (30:40) ... More from yesterday (38:42) including our thoughts on Matt Carpenter, Aaron Hicks, Jorge Soler, Masahiro Tanaka, Chase Anderson and Gio Gonzalez. Then we have Team Name Tuesday (45:30) and Fun With Fangraphs (46:06) as we look at regression candidates based on BABIP. What do owners of Odubel Herrera and Anthony Rizzo need to know? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I care about statistical scarcity more than positional scarcity. Have I killed fun? Yes. Podcast is going off the rails already. They're pop-ups. They're not infield fly balls. These guys told you look at Bip, not E-R-A. So wait for Glover's sale,

but pass on Robbie Rumidor. And pick your milk for breakfast cereal. Mount Rushmore. They'll be there for you. Fun show today. A lot of fun. segments. Heath's regression candidates. We're going to talk about those guys. We got some, hey, real quick, we're ranking rookies. It's team name Tuesday, and we got a little bit of news for you. Welcome,

everybody. I am Adam Azer. This is fantasy baseball today. We say hello to Chris Towers. Hello, Chris. Hey, what's up? Hey, chilling. Hello, Heath Cummings. You were anything but chilling. The argument that was had before the show, Chris was not chill. You were not chill. I was extremely chill. No, you were doing your thing that makes people just want to reach through the community. Okay, but... But, but if you are doing it on

purpose and the other person is reacting and they are serious about their reaction, then you're... Are you the chill one? Like, you are on purpose to make someone raise their voice to an octave that only dogs can hear.

That'd be me. That's typical. Chris and I had it out during the bike check. debating the NBA versus the NFL playoffs, which we're not. That's not what the debate was. We're not going to rehash the argument. I will not mislead anybody. Hey, I got to start with Team Name Tuesday, part one. This is from Tim.

Laurel Chorinos. Sure. You don't think that's amazing? Yeah, yeah, no. I mean, I heard Yanny, Chirino's, but yeah. Laurel Chirino, I think it's great. Thank you, Tim. Why would you name your team after?

just a regular player in baseball. Hey, real quick. Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, rest of season? Bryce Harper. We're going to talk about Bryce Harper in just a little bit, but I'll say Bryce Harper as well. All right. Well, you know, one's a shortstop. That is true.

Shortstop is the best position in fantasy baseball. So far this season, that is also true. Yeah, Machado's on pace for 52 home runs. He's usually right around 35, 37 home run. run, something like that. You know, it's interesting. Like, there's a clear reason why Machado is hitting so well. He's the number three hitter in fantasy.

It's obviously because he's in a contract here. He's hitting 343. And I think there's a reason why Harper's been struggling lately. I think it's because he's in a contract year and he's pressing trying to get that new contract. So it's just interesting the way that those things work opposite. Yeah? I think you missed the obvious answer.

Oh, what was that? Manny Machado was due. Oh, he is due. He was due. He's come due. He has a whole season of Dunez. Are we going to do this with Matt Carpenter today, please? We might. No. Like, Matt Carpenter is proving Adam right.

No, no. Look, there are definitely instances that would make me look right and instances that would make Chris look wrong. Here's my question, and actually it is relevant. And this is a serious question. This is not a troll question. It's not a let's start a fight like we did during the bike check. It's like a great question already. If you think that, you know, a guy gets off to a hot start, you expect them just to

hit like what we normally expect from him rest of season not to kind of cool off and bring the numbers back down then what is what is regression then because we because for several years I got it okay because you you had a it was not a the question was not stated well

all right you said if you expect him to just hit like we normally expecting to hit not to cool down if he got up to a hot start hitting like we normally expecting to hit would be cooling down but let's like let's define the terms of the debate.

When we talk about regression, we're talking about regression to the mean. Right. Which is probably a bad way to, I mean. No, but the mean is your mean expectation. That's your default. But that's what the term means. We can argue about whether that should or should not apply to fantasy baseball. But that is when we're discussing that, that's what the term means. So my interpretation of that was like, you do worse. to get back to the mean. That's wrong.

But that's how it was always used. You know, a guy would slump, oh, it's regression. You know, he was due for some regression. Right. It's used poorly, and that's in the lead of my column. All right. That's coming out today on cbsports.com. You should read it.

I will. Keith, give me your favorite guy from your regression column. Well, if you say favorite, I'm going to say someone that I think will actually regress in a positive way, because I don't really like saying this guy who's been really good is not going to be really good moving forward. That's no fun for anyone. I will just say that I think there probably are some people who look at Bryce Harper and think he's definitively fallen behind Mookie Betts

and maybe he's fallen behind Manny Machado and maybe he's fallen behind J.D. Martinez. Like those guys have been better than him so far this year. He's awesome. It is incredible what he's done so far this year. I mean, the odds of putting up a 924 OPS with a 196 BABIP. I saw something on Twitter last night, and it was a fun... I don't remember exactly how they worded it,

so I'm just going to word it in my own ways and steal their idea without actually stealing all of their words. Bryce Harper walks in 21% of his plate appearances. He gets a hit on 19% of his ball is in play so far this year. Sounds like he should walk less. No, that's not what that would lead you to believe. But it's kind of interesting. Like, does he walk so much where the hitting numbers aren't going to be?

No. No. No. If he keeps walking at 21%, which he probably won't, but let's assume for the sake of the conversation, that would hurt his counting stats. Yes. but it's not going to make them bad. No problem.

And his counting stats are already pretty good. It's not the reason. He's not walking so much, and that's why he's hitting 231. And he's on pace for 100 runs and 100. He has a career babbip of 316. Yeah. It's 196 right now, and he's hitting 231. He is struggling against lefties, Bryce Harper.

He is batting 189 against lefties this year, but 12 walks, 14 strikeouts. His career OPS against lefties is just 7.000. 776. But when you destroy Ritees, you can get away with 776 is not so bad. And right now, 189, very, very low for Harper against lefties. Harper is the number eight hitter in points leagues, number 14 hitter in Roto. He looks like he's always going to be better in points leagues because he just walks so much. All right, so that's one guy from the regression story. We'll come back to that.

We'll talk about it a little bit later. Let's do some rookie rankings. It's all about the rookies this year. It's a great year for the youngsters. Rank these rookies. Ronald Acuna. Walker Bueller, Glaber Torres, double-donged yesterday, Tyler O'Neill, three home runs in three straight,

a home run in three straight games for Tyler O'Neill, for the Cardinals, he's 28% owned, and Juan Soto. I gave you four hitters and a pitcher. Acuna, Bueller, Torres, Tyler O'Neill, Juan Soto, who homered yesterday off a lefty. Rank them, rank those rookies. Acuna, Torres, Soto, Bueller, O'Neill.

Wow, Bueller, 4th. Okay, Acuna, Torres, Soto, Bueller, O'Neill. Heath, you go. I'm going to say Acuna, Bueller, Torres, Soto, O'Neill. Okay, so O'Neill's last. Is that on purpose? Were you doing a thing? No. Okay. Acunia's first.

You will know when I'm doing a thing. Bueller, second for Heath, fourth for Chris. He's the only pitcher on this list. He is not walking batters. He has nine walks in 34 innings. He has two walks over his last three starts. Walker Bueller has also faced Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, Cincinnati, Miami, and Colorado at home. So he's had easy matchups.

He's got San Diego this week. Walker Bueh will go at Colorado next week. I don't know. It's an interesting group, guys. It really is, especially Glabertores. And here's the most interesting thing about Glaibre Torres. This guy is batting 321 with six home runs and a respectable eight walks to 21 strikeouts in 25 games. He has three homers in his last four games.

Since being called up, he's only the number 10 shortstop in points, number six in Roto. Why? Because he bats ninth. 27th most of the batts at the position. It actually is hurting him. Even before this three homers in three games for Glaibra, he was. 19th and points 10th in Roto, batting 329 with three home runs in less than a month. So the batting 9th thing is actually hurting Glaver Torres more than I expected, and I'm not

sure that's going to change. They probably like him batting 9th. Yeah, so I'll give you guys the floor. Talk about these guys and who really jumps out of you right now. So, Bueller, the thing we do have to keep in mind, and the reason that I, with a view for the rest of the season, rank him fourth among this group, is because he only threw 98 innings last season. And that probably means he's not going to throw much more than about 150 at the most.

And we know the Dodgers will come up with ways to stretch him out. They might move him to the bullpen for a couple of weeks like they've done in the past with other pitchers. They might put him on the DL for a couple of weeks. But at the end of the day, he probably only has about 100 innings left. He's thrown 47. He's thrown 47 so far this season. I just wonder when you're comparing him, like looking at the peripheral so far,

among starting pitchers that have thrown at least 30 innings, he is top 10 in basically everything in terms of FIP, Sierra, XFIP, all of them right around 2.3, 2.5. He's been incredibly good. So I have a hard time not looking at him in the same way that I look at somebody like Otani. Otani probably has 100, maybe 110 innings left. McCuller's probably face on his career. But those guys don't actually have like 100 innings left.

We think they might only throw 100 more innings, but that's a different thing. Because that Shohei Otani doesn't have any more injury risk than Walker Bueller. No. But we know. I mean, we don't know. But we can look at his track record and the fact that he's only thrown 98 innings as a career high in the professional and say that in the best case scenario, he probably only throws 100 morenings.

That's without accounting for maybe he misses a month with an elbow. And like that, that stuff. He has that same risk, though. Sure, but Otani doesn't have a ceiling. Yes, he does. Because we know he's only going to pitch once a week. Maybe there will be one. I don't want to say there's no chance he makes it too.

start week, but he's going to get one this year the most. If he pitches on Sunday every week, as he has, he's not, like, he makes what? I don't know that he makes 20 more starts. Okay. So I think there's...

Although 20 more starts for him is probably 125. It could be, right, if he gets 20 more starts. What do you guys think about Glaver Torres? Do you think now is the time to sell, or you just want to ride this out? I just, nobody needs a short stop, right? I don't know. Paul, the young owner might. Yeah, I mean, if someone needs a shot,

I don't think there, like, there is regression coming to a certain extent, but this is an elite prospect. Like, he's not a Ronald Ocuna prospect, but he was the top prospect in baseball at this point last year, right? Before his injury, you pretty much considered that. Yeah, right up there. You know, you look at the 362 Babbitt, and that'll probably come down. somewhat, but he ran high Babbat in the minors and he has a 31% line drive rate. Like, it's not fluky that he's succeeding right now. I don't think it's fluky that he's succeeding, but I think he's probably, instead of being a 320 hitter, he's probably more of a 280, 290 hitter.

I don't think, like, the two home runs were great. I don't think he's a 24% home run to fly ball guy. He's probably a 280 hitter that it's maybe 10 to 12. more home runs the rest of the year. Glaver Torres. All right. We're ranking rookies. Let's get to the big news.

And then we'll talk about Monday standouts, which have to include Nick Povetta. He was awesome. Miles Michaelis. I'm going to tell you what history says about whether Miles Michaelis can have a 350 ERA. Right now, it's well below that, with a strikeout rate under seven. Just going to look at the last couple of seasons. But first, the big news. Roberto Ozuna's administrative leave was extended to May 28th.

He is expected to appear in court on June 18th. So we still don't really have a concrete timeline for Ozuna, do we? I'm assuming that he's not coming back. I would say June 18th would be the very earliest. Rich Hill is going to ask MLB if he can put tape on his fingers when he pitches. He probably won't be able to, but he's doing anything he can. And urination, by the way, has not been ruled out. That's for real, to fix those blisters.

So, you know, there you go. Alex Reyes will be in the rotation when he gets called up by the Cardinals, which could be very soon. Yeah, May 29th was the day I saw yesterday. And there was a comment from the Cardinals GM yesterday that said that he's going to be. He's coming to the rotation. Yeah, right. And the Blue Jays, okay, according to Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal, the Blue Jays have not called up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. because of his defense.

Can we not? Can we not? Let's not indulge the Blue Jays in their obvious lie. You don't believe that? Of course it's not the reason. Why? It wasn't the reason Chris Bryant didn't get called up after 10 days in 2015. Are we still at that point, though?

The service side of point? Yeah. The Super 2 deadline's not for like another month. All right. Yeah. Well, they're working on his third base defense. If he comes up now, he'll be a full-time DH that they don't want that. That's what Jared Diamond reported. You take it up with Jared.

I go to Jared. I am not doubting Jared Diamond's sourcing or his reporting. I'm just, that's not. It is possible that Vlad's not very good defensively. Yeah, but like, if they had no contract concerns, they would live with him not being able to play defense. Like that. I don't know if they were contending, maybe, but they're not contending. Also, he went to Jared.

Okay, Greg Bird is not going to return this week. Steven Sousa, day-to-day with pectoral soreness. He could end up on the D.L. We'll see. This is what he missed time. with the beginning of the year, Stephen Sousa. Ryan's, okay, there are a lot of things that are happening right now that are bad for Matt Adams. Ryan Zimmerman could begin a rehab assignment soon.

Mark Reynolds is crushing lefties. He hit two home runs yesterday, one off of Ritey, and Juan Soto is up. So is it time to drop Matt Adams? Are you okay dropping Matt Adams? Yes. Clayton Kershaw is going to throw a bullpen session tomorrow. Freddie Freeman stole his fifth base, and he stole eight last year in 117 games. That was a career high.

It's Freddie Freeman the new Paul Goldschmidt? Freddie Freeman has been on base 88 times in 46 games. Ooh. Harper S? That's incredible. Yeah. Do you think he's going to steal 15 bags? He's on pace.

Probably not. All right. Maybe 10, 12. The Brewer sent Freddie Peralta to the miners, and Sean Casey hit Billy Ripkin in the face with a line drive on live TV on MLB Network. Did you guys catch that? No. Do they use, like, soft?

I don't think so. They don't use, like, real baseballs. I don't know. They might. He was, so Billy Ripkin was, like, on a knee pitching underhand to Sean Casey who was doing something, trying to, you know, give an example of something. And he lined one right back up the box, right off Ripkin's face. It was, uh, it was great because Ripkin didn't get hurt. Let me just clarify that.

Not as great as my Indochino suit. It is really important. We're at the age now. I'm 30. I'm almost 34. Chris is like 24. And he's our boss. Heath is almost 40.

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379. That's a great deal for a made-to-measure premium suit. Use the code FBT at checkout. Any premium suit for 379 with the code FBT at checkout at Indochino.com. Monday's standouts. Hit me with it. Heath Cummings. I think we should do the Miles Michaelist thing.

Okay. Complete game. Shutout, one walk, nine strikeouts against the team that doesn't strike out, the Kansas City Royals. But on the year, 46 strikeouts in 60 and a third. So am I right? Is it really only 6Ks per 9? Yeah, that sounds right.

Yeah, 6.9. 6.9. Okay, that's more than I thought. But either way, he's less than 7. So I looked at the last two seasons. How many starting pitchers had a sub-350 ERA with less than 7 strikeouts per 9? And there are 3.

Mike Montgomery, Andrew Cashner, both last year, and Bartolo Colon in 2016. Now you want to lower the standards a little bit and just say between seven and eight strikeouts per nine? There were plenty. There were 14 of them in 2016 who had a sub 350 ERA. There were only four in 2017. Now, of course, the strikeouts keep going up every year. The bottom line is you get between seven and eight, you got a chance, you got a solid chance to be under 350 ERA. Miles Michael's, Miles Michaelis right now is a 224 ERA by the way.

You get under seven strikeouts per nine, it's pretty tough. There's only been three over the last two seasons with an ERA under 350. All right, what do you make of Miles Michaelis right now? This guy's been absolutely incredible. Six and O, 224 ERA, only six walks and 60 in a third. I'm going to flip this discussion on its head because I think the real story with Miles Michaelis is just the incredible control. He walks nobody.

0.90 walks per 9. I don't know if that's completely sustainable. It would be his current walk rate of 2.5% would be the third lowest of the last decade. There have only been two pitchers walk less than a batter per nine and have an ERA over 3.5. And actually it was just one, Phil Hughes, twice, in the last 10 years. So the path to being a pitcher that starts

strikes out as few hitters as he does and post a good ERA is not a very easy one. But it's made easier by the fact that he walks no one. Yeah, Phil Hughes does strike me as a potential comp for Miles Michaelis just because of the walk rate, except that Phil Hughes was a fly ball pitcher. Right. And Michaelis has been a ground ball pitcher so far this season. I don't think he can continue to sustain this level of success No, but 3.5 ERA is well with the race.

Yeah, and that, you know, his strikeout rate 6.9 per 9 is super low. His 19.4% strike rate is still below average, but it's a little closer to average. Average is right around 21, 22%. Part of that is just he's got a low BAB opinion. walks anyone, so he's going to have a low K-per-9 as well, just because he faces fewer batters per inning. Sure.

He's good. Yeah, he's good. Now, who would you rather have Miles Michaelis or Nick Povetta? Pavetta, for sure. I'll take Povetta. I would not be that surprised if Michaelis scores more points. How about this as a comp for Miles Michaelis? Hasashi Iwakuma.

In 2013, he had 7.6K per 9, 1.7 walks per 9, and 266 ERA. In 2015, he had a 770K per 9, 146 walk per 9, 354, ERA. And he was a groundball pitcher. I actually a pretty good comp. What do you guys make of Nick Povetta? Do you think this is a legit breakout? This is a bit of a fooled you guys sometimes. He's a little inconsistent, but there's a lot to like for Povetta.

12-walk, 60 strikeouts, and 53 innings. And right now he has a 323 ERA. He's already faced the Braves, by the way, four times. Ray's have been one of the best lineups in baseball so far. He's a stud. He wasn't really a fool-jue guy last year. He was just bad. He had like one good start last season. I think he had like back-to-back really good starts and I bought in.

I bought in too. But this year he's basically had one bad start. He allowed six earned runs and one inning to the Nationals. But there's not really, there doesn't appear to be anything in his profile that looks particularly fluky. getting a ton of strikeouts. He's not walking anyone. He's getting a lot of swinging strikes. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher, but not an extreme one. I think Nick Povetta's really good. And he has, like, he reworked his curveball last season. There was a piece in the athletic talking about that. He's introduced a reworked changeup as well. I think he got like three swinging

strikes with the change up yesterday, which is a really good sign as well. I am very much bought into Nick Povetta. I am more and more buying into Nick Povetta. I wasn't as quick to get excited about him as Chris was, but it gets harder and harder to doubt. He's he's been

extremely good. He did have a five-start stretch last year where he was good, but it wasn't anything like this. And the swinging strikes weren't there. He wasn't throwing the curve balls off, and it's a different version of Nick Povetta.

All right, Heath, let's get those rankings out. Right now, you have Nick Povetta's 65th. She's going up today. I haven't updated my rankings in his last two starts. Let's jump 20 spots to 45th. That's Tanner Oark. I'm moving him up as we speak. I'm in the Roto rankings, so he'll probably move more than 20 spots.

I would say he's going to end up right in the 35 range. Ooh, Nick Povetta, 35th. Excellent. Would you rather have Nick Povetta or? Mike Clevenger. I'm going to stick with Clevenger. I still believe in him just a little bit more. I've got him at 31 in Roto.

But it's getting closer by the day. All right, let's give me your quick thoughts on Mike Fultenevich. 272 ERA. 62 strikeouts, only five homers and 53 innings, but he does have 26 walks on a 134 whip. Mike Fultenevich is allowed two runs or fewer in all, but one start this year. However, he does not pitch.

deep in a game. He's a little like Eduardo Rodriguez in that regard. But he just walks everybody. Anyway, what do you think about Fulton average? Fulton average is 91% owned. What do you think? I think that's too high. I think that will go down. I don't believe he is somebody that you start on an every week basis. Yeah, he's somehow getting even fewer swing strikes than he did last year, which is amazing because he was already really low.

It's nice while at last, but I think he's probably still the same. guy he was last year. Okay, so we don't buy the ERA for Fultenevich 272. There's regression coming. It is, oh, is there any other big standout you guys want to talk about from Tuesdays, from Monday's games? Juan Soto. I mean, he wasn't the rookie section, but sure.

Jose Boreos was awesome. Jose Boreos was awesome. Yeah, Juan Soto, pretty good debut. First pitch he sees in the majors. No, no, no, no, no, it wasn't the first pitch. pitch hit and struck out Sunday, I think. First pitch in his first start goes oppo off a lefty. He looks impressive.

That's good stuff. And he started against the lefty, and he homered against the lefty, which was good. Berrios will get to in a moment. You can talk about him now, Heath. Like I said, in his last start, which was incredible, Jose Berrios. It was seven and a third, 10 strikeouts, one run against St. Louis. I said, this guy, when he looked at, good, you wonder how Jose Bridos ever has a bad start.

He looks at that dominant, and now he's backed it up. This wasn't a huge surprise against the Tigers. Eight innings, two runs on three hits, two walks, nine strikeouts. Yeah, and eight innings are the part that I really love. He has pitched deeply into games. Not every start. He's still not as consistent as I would like to see. I expect that will come with a little bit more seasoning.

But he is, what's that, six starts of at least, seven innings so far this season? That's pretty good. Okay. Why can't he be more consistent? That's what's so hard to figure out. When he looks good, he looks incredible. Four strikeouts.

He's 23. Both those things, yeah, way on my mind with Jose Perrios. When he's good, he's incredible, when he's bad. I mean, four starts before this two-star stretch, he gave up like 18 runs and 18 and two-thirds. And as Chris said, getting any strikeouts or swinging strikes during that stretch. In three of those four, yeah, yeah.

So, all right, we'll see what happens with Jose Brrios. Would you, Berrios or Pavetta? I'll say Brios. Burios, but I think it's closer than anyone thinks. Let's do a quick Wariometer, and it's Tuesday, so we'll get out the Turyometer. Turyometer Tuesday, Paul Goldschmidt. Buster only noted in his Friday column, I believe, that Goldschmidt has been terrible against fastballs. And this is a trend that we usually see with old.

older players, and it's a sign of aging. And I don't know. He's only 30, for goodness sake. He's also been terrible at home. We know that. But Goldschmidt, soft contact rate has doubled. It's up to 22%. He went 0 for 3.

He's batting 201. He hasn't homered at home. Yikes, guys. Turyometer on Paul Goldschmidt. Turyometer? That's Tuesday. He explained it. I don't get it.

You weren't listening. He's just, though, how Tuesday do I think? He's just going for an alliteration. just play along with the game Tuesday Turi Oliver Everybody else gets it How much of a turd is he? Yeah, how much?

How much? How word are you? We're an eight on Goldsmith? Eight. This is legit. I have to be lower Just because I can't make sense of it So I'm going to go four.

Like it just It seems like a bad month and a half. Right? It's got to be. Come on. Like Paul Goldsmith. Yeah, it's just The track record is too good

to think that he just lost it to this extent. You know, we have these skill-based indicators and, you know, the hard hit, the hard hit rates down, the soft contact rate is up, the strikeout rate is up, all these things. And those things happened. He is hitting the ball less hard. I just, when it comes to a player with Paul Gulchman's track record, I have a hard time saying, well, that's the new normal. I don't think this is the new normal, but I think that there is, especially if he steals eight bases this year, I think there's a chance that he is more of a top eight first baseman than a top four first baseman. He's not anywhere, like he's, I'm not sure he's top 20 right now at first

base, but... Oh, no, no chance. I mean, we obviously, okay, so Goldsmith, if we were just starting the season over today, knowing what we know about Arizona and the Humidor, you have to lower your expectations. And he's only got two steals. Now, hasn't been on base much, but he's only got two steals. He's striking out a ton. A third round, you say? I'll go third round just because I still do believe there's good to come but I don't man he's got a lot of work to do to show me that he's still got first round potential okay and a tureometer Tuesday for Cody Bellinger I'll be higher on Cody Bellinger than I am on on Paul Goldschmidt because there isn't the track record and we did see he struggled on

the postseason the strikeout rate was up as the season went on Sugar right's actually down so far, but he just doesn't have the track record Paul Goldschmidt does. He doesn't have that to fall back on. So I'll say a five or a six. Yeah, I'm probably going to be a little bit lower on Bellinger just because the initial cost was so much lower

and he's been better than Goldschmidt has so far this year. I'll say a five. Not hitting lefties at all. Right now, Bellinger has a 678. OPS against lefties, and only 785 against righties, but he's been really bad against lefties. And the splits were pretty good last year. It was over 900 OPS against both lefties and righties. All right, so we're somewhat worried about Cody Ballinger.

He's like a four or a five, and Goldschmidt looks like a third round pick in a 12-team league at this point. Quick news and notes for you. The Mets could be interested in Jose-Bautista. Zach Davies will be back on Thursday. Houston released one-time top prospect, Jonathan Singleton. Zach Britton is scheduled to make a rehab appearance on May 30th. Dustin Padroia could return this weekend. What is your interest level in Dustin Padroia?

Two. A.L. only. Clay Buckholtz is going to make another start for the Diamondbacks, and Jammer Candelario could begin a rehab assignment this week. Tonight's the night. I'm going to win it. I'm going to do it. I'm going to beat you all on draft.

Very excited. Wish I had played yesterday. But I'll be back on it today. Get on the draft app. Play for cold hard cash. you get paid out the next day with some money and just have fun. Who cares about the money? You can play for $1.

You can play baseball. You can play basketball. You can play golf. Play hockey. A lot of stuff you can do on the draft app. It's DFS. It's daily fantasy sports. You play every day, but it's not like the other guys.

You do stake drafts with other people, just like in your season long league. The best part of fantasy, the draft. You get to do it as many times as you want. I do love the draft app, getting great feedback on it. And here's what you do. You download draft or you go to draft.com. and use the promo code FB Today. Play a real money game for free

just by using our promo code FB Today when you make your first deposit. Again, it's FB Today. That will automatically get you following me, Big Cain 2 on draft. You'll see the challenges that I post. We'll compete. You'll beat me probably,

except for tonight. Tonight is my night on the draft app. Let's get it done. Use that promo code FB Today. We are going to do fun with fan grabs in a little bit. We got more from yesterday to talk about, including Aaron Judge's home road splits. Aaron Hicks is red hot streak right now.

Masahiro Tanaka. It's not all going to be Yankees. Masa Tanooga. Zach Granky, Chase Anderson, and some bullpen notes. And team name Tuesday. But let's do eight emails in four minutes. Are you up for the task? Let's do it. Okay.

Jared in Brooklyn, why is nobody talking about Dustin Fowler? Dustin Fowler is only owned in 31% of leagues, and he's been delivering a complete stat line. since May 14th, and now Keras Davis could go on the DL. He might get everyday playing time, Dustin Fowler. Why is nobody talking about Dustin Fowler? Because he hasn't been getting everyday playing time. But he might now.

Yeah. Yeah, no. If he does get everyday playing time, he should be owned more than he is, especially probably in all Roto leagues, because this is someone who could potentially hit 15 homers and steal 15 bases for the rest of the season. And, you know, that's a valuable skill set in Roto. I would take him up with the other fowler right now. Oh, yeah.

Right, that's the thing about... That guy might have just lost his job. Tyler O'Neill might be usurping. They still owe him $50 million. From Ryan, dear, Mark Edward and Lou. Mark Edward and Lou. I don't know. I have picked up Mack Williamson, Juan Soto, and Tyler O'Neill.

Will I win my league by smashing a million home runs or be dropping all these guys in two weeks? I don't think you'll be dropping Soto. Yeah, and I would... bet against that you'll be dropping Tyler O'Neill. Not so convinced Mac Williamson's going to be a contributor, but that's the hierarchy. From Blake, my patience is wearing thin. I'm getting ready to drop Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce in a 12-team OPS Roto League.

Seventh place is no fun. Should he be dropping Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce in a 12-team OPS Roto League? Not if it's five outfielders, for sure. In a three outfielder league, it's possible. Like if Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce were sitting there on my team And I didn't have anybody worse And the Juan Soto call-up happened I'd have been dropping one of them

See like I got this kind of middling I wish I could even call it middling Roto team I just don't see it happening for this team Like we're just not that good I think Jay Bruce for me I'm gonna try to trade for Jay Bruce He might be done

But I think he's just in a cold slump Because that's what he does I don't think he's like a great, obvious by-low. But I think there's a chance that Jay Bruce gets like super hot and hits 10 home runs in a month or something like that. We've seen this from Jay Bruce. I don't think Chris thinks you should be complaining about your team in that league. I mean, my team's better than Chris's, yes, that is true.

All right, moving on. Next email. From Mason, 12-team 5-by-5 Roto Keeper League. I'm currently in sixth place. Would you give up Vladimir Guerrero? whose contract hasn't started yet, and everybody's on a five-year contract, for one year of Jose Al-Tube.

Would you give up Vladimir Guerrero's first five MLB years for just the rest of this year for Jose Al-Tuve? No, I don't think you can. I would not. Yeah, you can't do it. Same thing with Juan Soto, right? Correct. Yeah.

Don't do it. All right, this is from Tom from Appleton. Dear Sub-Zero, Buzzsaw, Dynamo, and Fireball. Is that like a moral combat action in Game of Thrones? No, it's not Game of Thrones. Feels Mortal Kombaty. No, I don't think it's Mortal Kombat. Tom says,

My nephew Mark loves fantasy baseball and has a couple of pretty creative team names. Watch me whip. Watch me K-K. I like it. Luke Skyweaver. Love it. I cane, I shaw, I homered. That's good.

The best one yet. Mark is turning 11. We're celebrating by heading to watch the mayor of Ding Dong City and the rest of the Brewers at Miller Park. Would you mind wishing, Mark, a happy birthday. I'm jealous, Mark. Happy birthday, enjoy the best ballpark in baseball. Happy birthday, Mark. Thank you for great team names.

This is from Jeff, a sad, sad white stocks fan. What is the deal with Brian Dozier? How are his advanced stats looking? I feel like you guys haven't talked very much about his putrid stat line. If I tried to trade Dozier, who would be some good offensive players to target? It's a bad time to trade him. Don't trade him. Trade for him.

You can't get you own him. My response is like, welcome to the Brian Dozier experience. He's done this three years in a row. He gets off to these bad starts. But he's a super talented hitter. He's going to steal some bases. His Babbat Biss 252. I'm not concerned about it at all.

There's not really all that much. His hard hit rate is low. Yeah, but he's popping up too much. All right. Guys, 20 seconds for two emails. Bobby and Iowa, grade the trade. Rooney, Mantle, and Mouse. Those are Mickeys.

12 team points league, gave up Luke Weaver, got Brad Boxburger. I think it's fine. C-plus. From Landon, A. E. Oh, Haneo Suarez or Matt Carpenter, rest of the season? Cwaris. Ooh. All right.

Double dongs yesterday. Mark Reynolds, 12% owned. Do you care? Nope. No. Three up from yesterday. Aaron Judge Homerd. That's his second.

What do you mean by that, Heath? On the Sportsline DFS podcast yesterday, you chimed in, which you rarely do. You're generally just do an outstanding job running that show. Right, right, not at all. And you thought it was important when we were talking about the Yankees and Aaron Judge to chime in and tell us that Aaron Judge has been terrible on the road so far this year. It was true. It still is. And he donned.

He did. He's batting on the road 218 with two home runs. He is a 359 slugging percentage. It was 301 yesterday. He's still a top five outfield or fifth and points, fourth in rodeau. By the way, I just thought it was interesting. That's what it was. It was interesting.

It was fun. Matt Carpenter, three up number two. He's 82% owned. He went three for four with a home run and two runs scored. He's on fire right now. But Chris would take Ehio Hano Suarez over Matt Carpenter. And that's not necessarily a huge knock on Matt Carpenter. I think A. E. Johanio Suarez is just good.

Yeah. Chris, or no, Heath, rather, your Heath. Is Matt Carpenter in your regression column? I started off with Matt Carpenter to illustrate Chris's point that this is not what we meant when we said Matt Carpenter was due for regression, but even with his current stat line, I think he's still a good by-low and a good regression candidate. His numbers compared to what they look like they should be are still awful. And this streak will continue for as long as this streak continues, but when it's over, I expect him to be a good hitter in fantasy baseball for the rest of the year. Okay. Matt Carpenter, 82% owned. And what do you think about Aaron Hicks?

The one stat that we love is walk to strike, not the one stat. One stat that we love is Aaron Hicks's walk to strikeout ratio. 20 walks, 24Ks. That's been the case all season. He was 9 for 24 with two home runs and six games before yesterday, and he homered and walked. So I don't know what to make of him. I thought he was a sleeper coming into the year. I don't really think Hicks is all that good.

He's 66% owned. He is going to get on base, though. Steal some bags. He has five home runs. Two of them are inside the park jobs. What do you guys think about Hicks? 66% own. He is, in fact, a Yankee.

He should be owned in most category leagues. I wonder if he's better in points leagues. Maybe because of the plate discipline. But I just worry about playing time a little more in that format. And I just think he's probably going to end up 20-20 by the end of the season. I will say he should be owned his. most five outfielder weeks. Aaron Hicks.

All right. One down. Jorge Solair, 85% owned. He's struggling. Two for 26 with nine strikeouts in his last seven games. Only one walk. That came after 17 games with a 397 batting average. And he was a high bad-bip guy.

What should Jorge Solair owners be doing right now? This is the problem with Solair power is that when we get a week or two like I have in the last couple weeks where it's just seemingly raining. every day, you don't get quite enough energy. Nya, yeah, yeah, yeah. That was a delicious joke. That was great. No, would you rather have Jorge Solera or Aaron Hicks?

Solera. Solera. Solera or Matt Carpenter in a vacuum? Carpenter. Carpenter. Solera or Soto. Soto. Soto.

All right. Any rotation members you'd like to talk about before we have some fun with Fangra? We got Granky, who's got a little bit of a home run problem. Right now he's the number 26 starting pitcher in fantasy. He's been amazing at home. He's struggled on the road. 694 ERA for Granky on the road. Tanaka got a little bit of a home run problem,

and he has been terrible third time through the order, and Tanaka has not pitched seven innings. This is amazing to me. Masahiro Tanaka has not thrown more than 93 pitches in a game yet this year. Chase Anderson came back and had a qualified. quality start, but only three strikeouts, and he's 90% owned. And Gio Gonzalez still exists. He's walking everybody.

He's got a high whip, but he keeps runs off the board. Fellas? Tanaka's a guy that will be going down in my rankings. He was a regression candidate coming into the year for me, and he just keeps getting don't know that I can expect it to stop anytime soon. Well, how would you rank? Granky's number one. How would you rank Tanaka, Chase Anderson, Gio Gonzalez?

Tanaka, Geo, Chase. Yeah, probably. Although I do want to point out, Chase Anderson's velocity had been down pretty substantially at the start of the season. You know, last season he was working in the 94-95 range at times. He was, he averaged 93.9 miles per hour with his fastball last night. So that's something I'll be keeping an eye on with him. If he can consistently throw in the mid-90s,

he has shown that he can be a good pitcher. That's really interesting, because Anderson right now, the total numbers look a lot more like pre-2017 when Anderson wasn't really worth using. And there's so many guys that are out there that people might want to pick up, and I just wonder if Chase Anderson deserves to be owned in 90% of leagues. But the velocity thing does throw a little bit of a...

Yeah, I would say he's over-owned. But if you're looking for a reason to hang on to him, Based on the upside he showed last, because he was really good last season. Yeah. The velocity is one reason to consider hanging on to him. Okay. Armand Marquez is one guy I just want to point out. He's 21% owned.

Marquez has a 206 ERA in six road starts. Might not be the best time to pick him up. In a daily league, he's got a home start against Cincinnati this weekend. And in a weekly league, he gets the Dodgers at home next. week. So at least the next two starts for Marquez are home where he is a 1034 ERA. Hector Nerris got a save. Sir Anthony Dominguez set him up.

That's probably going to be a bit of a fluid situation. But we would still project Nerris for the most saves going forward? Probably. Corey Canable got a save and Brad Brock got another save as they're still waiting for Darren O'Day to come off the DL. And I don't know what's going to happen when he does come off the DL. plus they're bad and Britain's working his way back. Team name Tuesday. Heath, it's your favorite band, Three Dong Night.

I like it. Yeah, I do too. It's good. Sir Anthony Hoskins, like Sir Anthony Hopkins. Sure, yeah. Sir Anthony Hoskins and the Navabines. Okay. You get it like Faba Beans from South of the Lambs?

Yellow polka dot Mancini. I like it. Soto, a tout war's story. I get it. That's it. That's all I got for Team Name Tuesday. Okay. Laurel Chorinos won the day.

All right, let's do fun with fan graphs. Babit leaders. J.D. Martinez. Malik Smith. Oduble Herrera. Matt Kemp. These guys are all 390 or better. J.D. Martinez, Malik Smith, Oduble Herrera.

Matt Kemp. Nick Castellanos, Noan Aronado, Tommy Fam, Brandon Belt, Yuan Moncada, and then a three-way tie, Aaron Judge,

Jorge Soler, and Brandon Crawford. So it's J.D. Martinez, Malik Smith, Odubo Herrera, Matt Kemp, Castianos, Aeronado, fam, Belt, Moncada, Judge Solair, and Brandon Crawford.

Any, uh, anything jump out of you guys there? Well, this is the kind of thing where the initial reaction is to just scream BABIP or regression and then walk away. But a handful of these guys are among the two in particular among the highest Babbup hitters in baseball history. Uduba Herrera has a 362 career Babbup. So he's got some regression coming, but not that much. Oduble is actually in the regression column. Because I think he has regression coming in multiple areas.

Like if he has 30 to points of BABIP regression coming, I'd probably guess 40, but 30 to 40% of BABIP progression coming, that's fine. He's got a 27% hard contact rate, which is actually down just a little bit. He's got a 17% home run to fly ball rate. The line drive rate's not crazy. It's good. He's also got a 15% infield fly ball rate. So I don't really buy.

Like, I've always thought Oduble Herrera was underrated. The problem now is that he's probably a little bit overrated because of some good fortune. Yeah, Heath, as we talk about all these stats and all these guys, please mix in your regression candidates, you know, as you see fit. So, okay, so who does worry you from a BABIP standpoint other than O'Dubel? I mean, Matt Kemp Matt Kemp and Malick Smith are the two Just because If their Babbitt progresses

There's not a whole lot else they do I mean Malik Smith will at least steal bases But he strikes me as someone Who's probably going to hit like 270 at best He does have a high Babbitt For his Major League career I believe And he's the kind of player that you would expect to I think Castellanos is an interesting one

Because he does have have a babb that's way too high, but he also, based on the type of contact he's making, has a home run to fly ball rate that's too low. So it might be that he's kind of due for some conflicting regression. I like Castiano. I just feel comfortable starting him every week.

You know? Yeah, I think that's fair. I don't know that I expect him to be amazing. Maybe if he were on a better team and had more... I don't even know what his county stats are. But I can't imagine tigers are helping him. Yeah. Yeah.

So are you not worried at all that Jorge Soler just goes back to being not even worth rostering? I'm somewhat worried about that, but I believe in the talent. I think the batted ball data is very positive. 21% line drive rate, 39% hard contact rate. I just, I believe in the pedigree, and I believe in the fact that he's hit consistently well at triple. It just makes me think there's more talent there than we've seen in the majors. But is he a must-owned guy in a three-outhood or league? Not necessarily.

Okay. All right. That's Jorge Salere. So we expect a little bit of regression from Oduble Herrera. Interesting thoughts there. Let's look at the babbib losers, the 10 lowest babips among qualified hitters. Dexter Fowler, Carlos Santana, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper, Adam Duval, Anthony Rizzo

Lewis Brinson Cole Calhoun Yonder Alonzo and Jason Kipnis This is a boring list But Harper He talked about at the top of the show Dexter Fowler Carlos Santana

Ian Desmond Bryce Harper Adam Duval Anthony Rizzo I guess that's pretty interesting Yeah I think the Rizzo one is really interesting because I do think there are probably people

that are kind of putting him in the same classification as Paul Goldschmidt, and I'm less worried about him than I am Goldschmidt. He's still just striking out 13.9% of the time. You can just move right past that. No one heard that. His hard contact rate is actually at a career high. His home run to fly ball rate is at a career low.

I'm not worried about Anthony Rizzo at all, and I would be actively trying to acquire him. Okay. Sam's. Sam's about Rizzo. Lewis Brinson and Cole Calhoun. Yonder Alonzo, Jason Kipness. You know, Adam Duvall, is it just that he's just not going to play enough?

Because he's better than this. And he'll get hot, right? I mean, he's like a must-start roto outfielder. Yeah, he's been, he's mostly been himself, right? The problem is the Reds don't view of him. He's been terrible. Right. He doesn't start every day.

They have the... No, but, like, besides the Babbab, which is the point in this conversation, he's been himself. Like, he's straying at a normal rate. He's hitting for power at his normal rate. He's just been a little bit unlucky. Okay. The one guy on the list that, like, Ian Desmond has a 189 Babbup. How do you do that?

He's got a 64% groundball rate and a 25% soft contact rates. He's lucky he has the home runs he does so far, or he probably already would have been benched or cut. So how about pitchers who have been Babbitt victims? High Babbitt pitchers. Marco Gonzalez. We talked about this. He also has a very high line drive rate, as I recall, from what Scott was saying.

But he is a 328 X-FIP, Marco Gonzalez. John Gray, 371, Bavitt, Brandon McCarthy, Noah Cindergarde, Ian Kennedy, Clayton Richard, he's a big-time groundball pitcher. Mike Leak, Luis Castillo, Yvonne Nova, and Armand Marquez. Do have a couple of Rockies on there. Marco Gonzalez, John Gray, Brandon McCarthy, Noah Cindergarde, Ian Kennedy, Clayton Richard, Mike Leak, Luis Castillo, Yvonne Nova, and

Armand Marquez. I know there's no chance anybody can remember all those names, but who stands out to you as a pitcher who maybe has been a little unlucky? So Marco Gonzalez does have a 30% line drive rate. That's not something that I care a ton about. I just, I don't think there's a ton of evidence that shows that

pitchers have a high degree of control. Like, pitchers can control whether the ball's hit in the air or on ground to a certain extent. But most of that comes from hitters. And so I don't, the fact that he has a 30% line drive rate, that doesn't necessarily say anything to me as far as his Babbitt, like he'll, he'll maybe have a higher Babbitt than a typical pitcher, but 380 is still 50 to 60 points higher than you

would expect. I think for the most part, the various defense independent pitching stats point to, like, Like, this is the perfect example of why we invented defense independent pitching stats. Everything else pretty much points to him being like a mid-3 ZRA guy. So this is Marco Gonzalez. Would you drop Chase Anderson for him? I would not. I think there's probably similar upside there.

I think the other guy on this list, we've already seen him start to turn it around, but it's Luis Castillo. He doesn't just have a 322 bad against. He's got a 19.6% home run to fly ball rate as well. Luis Gustavo still good. All right. How about the guys who have benefited from Babbitt? Maybe they've been a little bit lucky. Chase Anderson is number one.

He's a 200 Babbitt and an 86.1% strand rate. Justin Verlander, Bartolo Cologne. Well, when you give up a bunch of home runs, you're not going to get a lot of balls in play. Sean Minia, Rinaldo Lopez, Francisco Liriano, Corey Klober, Charlie Morton, Trevor Williams, and Jose Berrios. Chase Anderson, Justin Verlander, Cologne, Mania,

Rinaldo Lopez, Liriano, Cluber, Morton, Trevor Williams, and Jose Burrios. It's a pretty interesting list because it's a bunch of guys who are either like total studs. Actually, there's three of those. And then a lot of guys we think have been kind of lucky this year. Who are the lucky ones here? Who's the third stud? Charlie Morton. Charlie Morton, Cluber, and Verlander.

Yeah, I think you can kind of easily separate this into the guys who have struck out twice as many batters as they walked. And that would be Brios, Morton just or Morton, Trevor Williams just barely, Corey Klover, Shamaniah, Justin Verlander. That, to me, that's the good pitchers on this list. Now, there are wide ranges of good. Trevor Williams is very much on the mediocre side of good, but everyone else on the list I think is probably not that good. Like, Rinaldo Lopez has moments. We keep seeing these moments, but...

Yeah, I'm not giving up on him yet. The sum total of what he's done has been... I know he has a 2.98 ERA, but it's been underwhelming. How about we take a look at today's matchups? Trevor Bauer at Tyler Chatwood. I will start Bauer. Yep. Brandon McCarthy at Vince Velazquez.

Sure. Velasquez uncomfortably. Yeah. Eric Lauer at Jeremy Hellickson. I would prefer not to start either, but I guess is Hallexen a two-start pitcher? I don't think so. I don't mind starting Hilloxin against the Padres. In a points league.

Garrett Richards at Jayhap. Yes. I'm not going to talk about Jayhap because everything I say about him turns out to be the opposite. so I will start Garrett Richards. Caleb Smith and Zach Wheeler. I don't hate starting both in a deeper league. Yep. Yeah, I mean, look what Jason Vargas did yesterday.

Wow, and Eliezer Hernandez. And Zach Wheeler is throwing a splitter that he's been working on. I don't know if it's going to be a good pitch, but he's had a very weird start to the season. His other secondary pitches haven't worked, but it's just an interesting thing to watch. And he's got enough talent to go through the Marins order a couple times. If Caleb Smith struggles tonight, maybe don't be so quick to drop him. He's got at San Diego and at Arizona next week. That's not bad.

Let's see who else we got here. We got Pirates Reds. Jamison Tyone at Matt Harvey. Jamison Tyone. Yeah, I'll sort him. Chris Sale at Jake Faria. Chris Sale. Matt Cook at Yolice Chasine.

No, thank you. Yeah. Domingo Arman at Cole Hamels. That's interesting. I'll start Hermon. Cole Hamill's. He's got to show off for his future teammates. Seriously. Chris, would you start Cole Hamels? Yes.

Okay. I mean, it's a bad matchup. Well, Aaron Judge sucks on the roads. Terrible matchup. But I think, like, Cole Hamill's is pretty good. Matt Boyd at Lance Lynn. Heath? I don't want to start either of these.

I would rather start Matt Boyd. I am going to be watching this Matt Boyd start very, very closely because I spent the first six weeks of the season saying Matt Boyd isn't actually good. And then in his last couple of starts, he's actually started to pitch well. And that's one thing when it comes to all this regression stuff too. A lot of times we're saying this guy isn't this good and it's assuming that his peripherals are going to remain the same. Sometimes what happens is the peripherals change. And that's what's happened with Boyd lately. So I'll be watching closely.

Okay, but we're not starting him. Right. Probably not. All, finishing up, Andrew Suarez at Garrett Cole. Okay, that's easy. Garrett Cole. Kevin Gosman at James Shields. I would start Cosman.

Yeah. Jason Hamill and Luke Weaver. Probably Weaver. Yeah, start Weaver. The Royals are just hot garbage. Mike Leak at Trevor Cahill. I would... Cahill, maybe, as a two-start guy,

but if you're just playing matchups, I want to see him get some more strikeouts after that first start back. I'm kind of interested in starting Mike Leak. It's at Oakland, right? Yeah. Yes. And they may not have Chris Davis. Right.

I think I might chance it with Mike Leak. And Chad Bettis is at Brock Stewart. No, thank you. All righty, guys. Thank you very much. Great show today. Fun stuff. Thank you all for listening.

Email us at Fantasy Baseball at Cbsi.com, and we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Baseball today. Thank you.