Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/22: Worryometer, ACES Update, Tue. Recap (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 22, 2019

Looking for the hitter that is about to dominate MLB for the next month? We've got three suggestions (1:50). Then it's on to Tuesday's standouts (5:45) including Clint Frazier, German Marquez, Lance Lynn and Marwin Gonzalez ... Evaluating Francisco Lindor (20:40), news and notes (25:00), bullpen updates (28:40) as we dissect an interesting Joe Maddon quote, and then it's Worryometer Wednesday (31:00) which of course starts with Jose Ramirez and Trevor Bauer but also includes Chris Archer, Andrew Benintendi, Daniel Murphy and more ... "Hey, Real Quick," (47:00) an update on the ACES metric (49:00) which attempts to determine which pitchers have great stuff. There are some surprising names near the top of the list. And we finish the show with more from yesterday (52:50) as we debate Zach Eflin, Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez. Plus a look at today's matchups  (58:10) ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. He never wants to talk about Lance Lynn again, but unfortunately we have to talk about Lance Lynn.

But we also get to talk about Clint Frazier, who doubled on yesterday and was a great call by Mr. Heath Cummings. Yes, Heath is here. I am Adam. Chris Towers is also here. What's up, guys? What do you think of the Tuesday night around baseball? It was fun.

We got a Juan Soto home run. He's starting to heat up. Caleb Smith was awesome again. Wait. And who's starting to heat up? Juan Soto. I think that you say Juan. He does say Juan.

Yeah, it's, yeah. I'll just throw that out there. It's a W.H. Town. Which maybe it is. I don't know. Maybe. Okay. Just throw that out there.

That's all. Actually, I want to be in the mood for the year. No, it's just I'm being, I'm, I'm, me, the only person on the show with any Hispanic heritage who grew up in Miami, not Coral Springs, Miami. Right. Different, different countries. So are you saying it is actually, Juan? And I'm being lectured from the guy from Kansas. I'm not lecturing you.

Adam did it. And the seventh member of newfound glory. That's me. About, I'm just... Also, I'm not from Kansas. I mean, Kansas City. Not even in Kansas. What kind of city is that?

Have we been saying it wrong? Is it Juan? Oh, I don't know. Hey, look, I didn't say it was wrong. I don't know how to pronounce anyone's name. I didn't say it was wrong. But I did ask you guys before the show, hey, give me one hitter that's just going to go crazy over the next month. And that was Chris's guy, Juan Soto.

So would you like to elaborate on that? He has eight hits in his last five games, and he did Homer yesterday. This didn't have to be a necessarily fantasy-relevant segment just for fun. Pick your guy who's going to go crazy over the next month, and Chris is picking Juan Soto. Yeah, well, first off, he's due, and that's very important. But, I mean, Juan Soto is an incredibly talented hitter who, you know, I think there have been some flaws pointed out in his game. that pitchers have picked up on. Last season, he was really, really incredible against fastballs,

and he really couldn't hit anything else all that well. You're probably starting to see him get a lot more breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Now it's time for him to adjust, and I believe in his talent level, and I believe in the work that he's willing to put in enough to say that we're going to see a monster stretch at some point from him. He's too talented not to, and why not now?

Okay, so Chris is going with Soto. Heath, I'm crossing my fingers that you're right on this one, but I'm getting a little worried. In fact, it's Worryometer Wednesday. This guy almost was on the Wariometer, but your player, to have a big month to go crazy over the next month is David Dahl of the Rockies. There's a couple of reasons for this.

One, I wrote about him in Regression Alert two days ago, saying that he had the highest BABIP in baseball, and other than that, he'd mostly be. been bad. And a lot of times the Babbip can regress while his actual performance may just go back to what it was before this terrible start and he could still be good. But more importantly,

it's that the Rockies have a 10-game homestand coming up starting, I believe, Friday, and they get the Orioles pitchers and the Blue Jays pitchers at Corse Field. And so if you're ever going to go in a hot streak, it's either going to Camden Yards

or at Corse Field against those bad pitchers. Yeah, he is striking out 34% of the time, David Dahl, and still has a 432 Babbitt. He's just struggling and sometimes sits against lefties, but this is that, you know, once that homestead start, it's basically, it could be make or break because they just, they're not committed to playing him every day. That's maybe a little drastic, but it's an important week for David Dahl. My guy's J.D. Martinez, he's got nine home runs in 44 games.

He's hit 43 and 45 home runs in his previous two seasons. His home run to fly ball rates, 14.5%. been around 30% each of the previous two seasons. J.D. Martinez has been good. He has not been great. He is about to be great. In fact, he probably already started. Four home runs at a three-game stretch last week. You missed yesterday's game with an illness.

I pretty much blew an opportunity to trade Jose Ramirez for J.D. Martinez. It wouldn't have been straight up, but I probably could have done that, and now I don't think I can do that anymore because J.D. Martinez is going to go off. Would not surprise me if he has one of those 30-game stretches with like a 1,300 OPS. That's my guy. Yes.

I agree. Our listener should start J.D. Martinez. No, you should acquire J.D. Martinez. You should give up something really, really good for J.D. Martinez because he's going to be really, really amazing. He's going to blow everybody. I should give up Mike Trout. Should not give up Mike Trout. You should give up...

Just for the next 30 days. Then I trade him right back. You could give up Freddie Freeman for J.D. Martinez. Well, yeah. Well, what do you mean? Well, yeah. Freddie Freeman... You should have always done that.

Okay, but you could actually pull it off now. Freddie Freeman, by the way, is awesome. Oh, he's great. Yeah. But so is J.D. Martinez. Tuesday standouts. And yes, we have the Worryometer coming up. And we have our stats versus Baltimore segment.

But who stood out? Heath, I'll throw it to you. Who stood out to you on Tuesday? Do we want to talk about Clint Fraser now? Is it a good time? You know what? Or you'd like to wait? I mean, if we're talking about standouts and somebody double-dong,

it seems like they would be the standout of the day. There you go. The Heath is on, ladies and gentlemen. Okay, Clint Frazier. So I have Frazier in three or four leagues, and I only started him in one league. And I'll tell you why. He, in his previous 12 games,

have been batting 150 with 15 strikeouts. He sat on Monday. So when I saw he was out of the lineup on Monday, I said, all right, get him out of the lineup for the week. And he homered and drove in five, he won't twice and drove in five runs yesterday at Baltimore. So what are your thoughts on Clint Frazier, who's 62% own? I think he's mostly a pretty good hitter,

who should be a pretty good hitter and close to a much-start outfielder until all the Yankees are healthy. Okay, so my stats, my versus Baltimore stat, I have Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez, but we'll focus on Frazier right now. Batting 409 with five home runs in six games against Baltimore, batting 233 with three home runs and 25 games against everyone else. Sanchez, meanwhile, top five catcher, fifth and points, second of Roto, has an IL stint, probably the number one catcher per game.

But 308 with eight home runs and nine games against Baltimore, 241 with six home runs and 22 games against everyone else. So it's, you know, I bring this up with Labor Torres all the time. It's hard for me to evaluate some of these Yankees because they are beating up on the worst pitching staff in baseball history that's already given up 100 home runs. They are going to shatter the record. And yeah, I guess what do you think about that? So you said it's 241 with six home runs and 22 games against non-Oreals? Yeah, for Sanchez. Okay, so that would be 36 homers over 132 games with a 241 average.

That's pretty much what I was hoping for from Gary Sanchez. So he still has seven games left against the Orioles. So you can add on four or five more home runs. Actually, I think it's only six now. Before four home runs on top of that gets you to 40. So I think it's been pretty awesome for Gary Sanchez. Okay, fair. What about Frazier?

I generally, it's hard to know the cause and effect on these things. Yes, the Orioles are very bad. But they will face other bad teams. And it's always hard to know whether it's, he got hot and had a stretch of five good games in a row and it happened to coincide with the Orioles. Or he got hot and then the Orioles exacerbated the heat. So the sample sizes are so small in both instances. How many games for Clint Frazier not against the Orioles?

25. Yeah, like it's just hard to say one way or the other on that. I think there, obviously, I think Gary Sanchez is an elite fantasy option. I think Clint Frazier's a very good hitter. I think what worries me about Frazier just getting rid of the whole Orioles thing because he played the Orioles earlier in the year and then he stayed hot for 13 games after that

before going on the IL but he has six walks of 31 strikeouts and 31 games he doesn't steal basically has to Homer and he might have a limited shelf life and he's terrible on defense so he's 62% owned does he need to be more owned than that

that seems fine I think he needs to be more own than that Okay. Well, obviously, you know he has a ton of potential. Other standouts. Chris, who you got? Well, let's do the yo-yo thing with Erman Marquez, who had a 380 ERA after his last start. Now it's 338, eight shutout innings, seven strikeouts, one walk against the pirates, notably on the road. And that's the thing is he's going to need to be, like we can't have too many more starts like his previous one on the road.

He needs to be Max Scherzer good on the road in order to be a top 25 starting pitcher. And I think that's what he is. The question for me is I'm not so sure he's a borderline ace like we might have hoped based on the last 20 starts of last year.

Yeah, he's now made six starts away from Corse Field has a 2.08 ERA averaging more than seven innings per start with a whip of 0.74. So he's been super Mac Scherzerz. At home, 5.34 ERA with a 1.67 whip. I would guess those two things come back towards each other a little bit. You know, probably more like a 27 ERA on the road and a four, five ERA at home. That's high.

That's bad. Yeah, that's... I just, I think it comes out to like a 3-8 ERA with a ton of strikeout. Which isn't an ace, but it's a very good pitch. Right. It would be a little disappointing for my... perspective. What I wonder is going to happen with Marquez. His next two starts are home, Baltimore and Toronto. He could be great in those two starts. We could sit here and say,

well, he's cured, and then realize it was just the competition. But so, again, like it's a big week for David Dahl or a big stretch for David Dahl. The next two home starts for Marquez are important. If he struggles against Baltimore and Toronto, that could be problematic. Those will be home starts. So how about this? I had a segment called Rank These Starting Pitchers Part 1. I'll save part two for later, but let's do part one. These were the must-start guys, probably top 30. I don't know where you have Armand-Marquez, but the rest of them are top-30 pitchers. Rank these pitchers rest of season.

Zach Rankie, Clayton Kershaw, Domingo Erman, Arm-Marquez. Ooh, that's like a before and after on Wheel & Fortune. On Wheel of Fortune, Domingo-Ramon-Marquez. Zach Wheeler. Zach Granky, Clayton-Kershaw, Domingo, Armine, Marc-Marquez, and Zach Wheeler. rank them. Is Domingo Armand Marquez the best version of that that you could do in Major League Baseball right now? Of a before and after? Yeah. Oh, okay, I'm going to think about that while you guys rank these pitchers. I'll rank them Kershaw, Granky, Marquez, Wheeler, Erman. That's exactly

how I'd rank them. Is that one better than Garrett Cole Hamels? Damn it, you thought about that immediately and I'm sitting here. I had done it. Gerard Cole Hamels, Yeah, that's probably the better one. Better hell. That's how I would put it, but I would say, like, for me, Kershaw and Grinky are both in the ace tier. And then Marquez and Wheeler are kind of in the same tier. And then Hermon is below the rest of them.

Domingo Ramon is 9-1 with a 260 ERA, still struggling to get through the order three times. He's faced such an easy schedule. I know he's a sell high, but to what degree? Because I do think he's good. And I think if there's one team where you can pitch five, six innings every time and get a lot of wins, it's probably the Yankees with their bullpen. Not one team. This is one maybe that will kind of, I don't know if it would work or not.

I would rather sell him for Jack Flaherty. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, I feel like 30% of our listeners could pull that off. I would sell him for wheel. Yeah, I was thinking that was an obvious one. It's just, it's a question of like, how good do we think Armand Marquez is moving forward?

Do we think he's a... Who? Three point two? Domingo Armand. There you go. Do we think he's like a three point two ERA guy? If he is and he doesn't pitch deep into games, I think you could probably still expect a decent amount of wins.

But last season, Masahera Tanaka had a 375 ERA. He wasn't bad. And he had 12 wins in 27th starts. So I think the success in wins so far is, I would say 50% of it is probably just randomness, because nobody else on the team is winning games like that. Right. Well, okay, so what do you think are Monzi R.A is the rest of season? Three-five.

Yeah, I would say something in that range. Okay. Certainly you don't have to feel like, you know, you got to get rid of him. You're not going to be able to start him. He's good. Okay. Lance Lynn is my standout, and he's 34% on. His last three starts. So yesterday's 120 pitches over seven innings with 11 strikeouts against Seattle.

Last three starts for Lynn, 21 innings, six earn runs at Houston at Kansas City and Seattle. 24 strikeouts to three walks in those 21 innings. I mentioned Kansas City and Seattle. Those just happened to be his two matchups next week. At Seattle, without D. Gordon, and home against Kansas City. He is a two-star pitcher. Is Lance Lynn a must-own for next week at 34% own right now? Okay, I was willing to accept the premise of this whole discussion

and just knowing that as soon as Homer Bailey has two good starts in a row, we get to talk about him again because you've broken our pact. I will say Lance Lynn is a fairly good streaming option for next week in a points league. I would not come anywhere close to saying Lance Lynn is a must-own for next week. Okay, we're not... I'm just caught up on you saying we get to talk about Homer Bailey. We made a deal. That seems...

Maybe we have to talk about Homer Bailey might be the better way to phrase it. Get to. We are blessed. I don't think that's how it works. I think the deal was I said, can we never talk about Homer Bailey again? And Heath said only if we never talk about Lance Lynn again. But here we are talking about Lance Lynn. So he's 34% owned.

And then, you know, it's a lot of pitchers on today's show. But I got to throw a hitter out there. Marvin Gonzalez in his last 16. games. He's batting 381 with three homers and four doubles, a 1038 OPS, a 467 Babbip there, but still some power. Marwin Gonzalez is only 42% own. He's eligible just about everywhere. What do you think about Marwin right now? I wrote about him in WaverWire today, not as an ad, but as a winner. I think the interesting thing is I believe this was his first start since Miguel Sino came back. So they have got a bit of a roster crunch right now. They have about 17 DHS on that

team and only so many positions you could play a DH. So I'm encouraged by the fact that he's starting to hit again like he did in Houston. But I don't know that he has everyday playing time. I mean he, so he's, this 16 game stretch has taken place over 20 games for the twins. So that's actually a little better than I would have thought. Right. It's just the Suno came back four days ago and he sat the bench. No, no, that's, I'm sorry.

I don't mean to jump all over. but Sano came back. He started four of six games since Sano came back. Now, now, that's it. He had a couple days off then? He's, maybe it was, no, I don't know. He didn't start Sunday or Monday, but he did start Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with Sano.

But, and the thing with the twins is, playing time's been a little harder to come by for him than we might have expected, but this is a team that's had everything go right for them so far this season. Pretty much across the board. I guess Miguel Seno getting hurt in spring training is the one exception. That's not going to be the case moving forward.

Someone, you know, someone's going to slow down or someone's going to get hurt and they're going to have to fill more spots. And so I think Marvin Gonzalez is probably going to play a little more. I just think the question is he good. Is he? Yeah. Like right now his season line looks like what it did last year. Which is it good.

If that's the case, he's worth owning almost exclusively because he's eligible at five positions, not because he's particularly valuable in and of himself. All right. We've got a lot to get to today. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez on the Woriometer, also Starling Marte, Tommy Fam, Chris Archer, Andrew Benintendi, Daniel Murphy. They're all on the Wariometer. That's coming up. A few things to promote.

We're all, Chris, let me get a look at you. Are you wearing blue today, Chris Towers? Double, triple blue. Two pants, blue shirt, blue jacket. We're all wearing blue today. How do you know? How can you believe me? You think I'm lying?

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Well, we do have a show on Monday, sort of. No typical show on Monday. It's Memorial Day. We're going to record a mailbag on Friday and publish that on Monday. So send in your emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. All right, let's take a break. And when we come back, we're going to read an email of the day. is calling us out for not talking about a great player quite enough.

We'll get to that right after this break on fantasy baseball today. Brandon's got our email all the day, fantasy baseball, CBSI.com. Hey, Mike, Mookie, Jose, and Francisco. Those are the Beatles. Yes. Why haven't you guys talked about Francisco Lindor? He was a projected top four pick before the injury, and that's what Mike, Mookie, Jose, and Francisco are. And he has looked like himself since coming back, hitting for power and stealing bases.

parentheses, Scott. Where does he rank overall rest of season? And for dynasty purposes, Francisco Lindor. Okay, so Lindor is homered twice in a row, or two games in a row. Since coming off the DL, sorry, the IL on April 20th, he is only the number nine shortstop in points leagues and number six in Roto, despite pretty much doing what he did last year, except he is not walking at all.

What do you guys think about Lindor, rest of season, and Dynasty? This makes me think of, I'm going to go back a little ways. We used to do player. We used to do the player news on CBSSports.com, and I was part of that team. And one thing we would always struggle with is like, we wanted to get to every player at least once per week, so that everybody had something relatively fraught. But what do you do with Mike Trout?

What could Mike Trout do that's newsworthy, that is worthy of something new? And that's kind of how I feel about Francisco Lindor. Like, he's been himself. So I don't know what there is to talk about, except I guess that he's maybe falling a little short of the pace based on the rest of the shortstop crop, uh, crop. But yeah, and I had, I tweeted about this last week, I think. Shortstop has just been absurd so far this season. Carlos Correa is the number 12 shortstop.

Um, and he's basically been healthy. He missed a couple of games. And has like a 940 OPS. Right. Yeah. he's been absolutely awesome. So, yeah, I don't really worry about the he has not walked as much in 28 games. I mean, he still has eight of them.

It's not like he's just not walked. I think he's going to be very, very good. I would expect if he continues at this pace, he'll be better than the number nine or number six shortstop because a few of these guys are going to cool off at some point. Yeah, he should be better than Tim Anderson for sure. Better than Paul DeYoung for sure. Better than Elvis Andrews. I don't know for sure that he'll be better than all those guys. One of them may stay hot for most of the season.

But one-on-one, he's going, you would pick him above all of them. Maybe you don't pick him over Mondesier's story. Maybe it's more of a coin flip with Baez or Bregman. But I think the point is he's performed like an elite shortstop in a way that seems more sustainable than what half the guy in front of him. The one thing that is a lot different besides the walks that I think might continue to be a lot different is he scored a hundred and twenty-nine runs last year. he scored 17 and 28 games.

I was going to say that. That's a pace for 95. Yeah, I was going to say that. And there's no Michael Brantley. Like, that makes a difference. And there's no Jose Ramirez, wherever that guy is. No, you're right. That is the big difference.

He's not getting on base as much, and the runs pace is, like he's basically on pace for a very similar season of last year. But I think you're missing the storyline. He is himself. That's a huge deal coming back from the calf injury. And the fact that he's run, he's stolen five bases in six of ten. But himself is not going to be a top five player this year. No.

Probably not. Even from the point that he started, if he doesn't score 130 runs. But the problem is that that was impossible to see coming. Right. Like we obviously did not expect Jose Ramirez drafting him third overall to turn into... Nikki Lopez? I wish he was Nikki Lopez. Yeah, so it's...

That's the kind of unforeseen thing that you just can't really account. for and you just kind of have to, if you're Francisco Lindoran or hope for better things coming in the run production category. Who would you rather have rest of season, Lindor or Jose Ramirez? Lindor. Oh, Lindor. He was one spot behind him before the season and he's been himself. He's been good.

Okay. So Worryometer coming up in a bit. Let's do the news and notes now. Christian Yelwich was scratched with back spasms. Chris Davis is on the I.L. with an injury, you know, it was a hip. He says he feels it in his oblique. So, not good.

Don't know how long he'll be out. If you're in a deep league, Mark Kana. Mark Kana's got some pop. I don't know how much he'll play. He did replace Chris Davis yesterday. They have weird lineups in Oakland, but maybe Kana gets more run. I think he can help you in a fail only.

Jose Altovae could begin a rehab assignment soon. D. Gordon is on the I.L. with a wrist contusion. So he heard his wrist on May 9th and he's been bad since, three for 24 and he's out. So he's on the IAL. Shed Long was called up. Any interest in Shed Long who had a brief call up and was

bad, got sent back down, but, you know, it was brief. Shed Long? He's a not uninteresting prospect but I don't think he's a must add. If he's out there in your A.L. Only league, you know, he's probably going to play a little bit. Best dog I ever had

was a poodle mix and he definitely shed along. You know, I thought you were going to say something like I think you could shed him from your team but it went a different direction, good for you. Ryan Healy is on the IL, so again, we'll see if that means

Dan Vogelbach starts playing against lefties. But Kyle Seeger should be back, I don't know, fairly soon. Brendan Rogers has sat each of the last two games for Ryan McMahon. I'm starting to think I may have wasted a lot of fab on Brendan Rogers, but we'll see. Same! Angelton Simmons is on the IL

with an ankle sprain. Shohei Otani. You may be done for the year. Oh, the year, really? It's a grade three sprain, which is the worst kind. Complete tear, they said. Oh, God, don't call it a sprain then. Well, a sprain is a tear.

That's got to be... A tear is a sprain. Okay. Shohei Otati returned to the lineup. Javier Baez did pinch it yesterday, but he's still going to have an MRI on his heel. He can't run. He can hit. David Peralta left with a

shoulder injury. He's had like a trap injury, so it might be related. Paralta, yeah, we've got to keep an eye on that. John Carlos Stanton had leg tightness, but not a big deal. He could resume his rehab assignment today. So, L.OL. L.L. LHop injury to a shoulder injury to leg tightness now? Well, yeah, the bicep bones connected to the shoulder bone is connected to the leg bone. He got hit by a pitch in the leg. He missed the game. He'll be fine, at least from that injury, I think. Scooter Jeanette, hoping to come back in a couple of weeks. I got an interesting email. Who would you rather have rest of season as their timetables look fairly similar. Scooter, Jeanette, or Didi Gugorius? Scooter.

That's what I said, too. Wait, what did you say, Heath? It mostly comes down to second base, which is shortstop. Like, if Dee-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-E has the same season as he had last year, and Scooter has the same season, D-D-D-E, or Scooter is probably a much better player. Yeah, you said Scooter, right, Heath? We all did, yeah. Okay. Gregory Polanco sat with a jam finger. Francisco Mejia is going to begin a rehab assignment. Brandon Nimmo as a stiff neck. Jeremy Hellickson's on the IL, but could be back soon. Hunter Strickland is hoping to return in mid-June. Not a bad guy to stash.

Yassil Pueg hoping to return today. Yandy Diaz sat with a hand contusion. Masahiro Tanaka is going to start at Baltimore tomorrow. Mike Clevenger continues to make good progress. J.D. Martinez sat with an illness. He's likely to play today and be the best hitter in baseball for the next month. And Gerard Dyson started against a lefty, but he did not lead off. But that is good.

Dyson's probably still underone. All right. Here are some bullpen. notes for you. Sean Kelly is off the IL and he got the save. He did give up a run. Jose LeCloric pitched a scoreless eighth. Who do you want in the Rangers bullpen? Leclerc. Leclerc. Hector Nerris was not used in a save situation. I do not think he was available. He had pitched three of the previous four days. Here's something I read in the recap of the Cubs Phillies game, same

game. Joe Madden said he's prepared to finish the season without a designated closer. As long as Pedro Strope returns effectively from a strained left hamstring and Carl Edwards Jr. rounds back into his 2018 form. Brandon Morrow has started to throw off flat ground, summarizing there. I don't know what that means.

A lot of managers say this. More managers than used to are doing it now, but I don't, I would guess he'll settle in with one person who gets the majority still. That's always been right. So far this year, that has mostly been wrong.

But I don't think, like... Not with the Cubs. I think that they've gone... I think they went to Strope. Yeah. And then they went to C-Chi. No, I meant that's been right universally around the league. Oh.

Right. But Madden has a pretty long track record. And I... There might have been one year where they really did use a bullpen by committee in Tampa, but I think he's pretty much had a guy. All right. Cody Allen is back. He says five straight appearances with no earn runs.

He does have one walk in each of those appearances. Who do you want in the Angels bullpen? I'd still probably take Cody Allen. Okay, it's either him or Robless, obviously. And then Luke Jackson is maybe reminding us that he is not that good. He gave up three runs on four hits yesterday. Blue his fourth save. I definitely, you got to pick up Sean Newcomb, if you need saves.

If you're speculating anywhere, I think that's an easy place to speculate that Newcomb takes over there. Yeah, I'm sorry, Luke Jackson. Newcomb's for real. So it's Worryometer time. Here we go. It's Worryabiner Wednesday. I don't like that song, by the way. It's a fantastic song, and you are a terrible person.

Like, you know we're recording this and sending it out to the general public. Yeah, I know. I don't like that song. I'm sorry. I mean, it's better than Old Town Road, but I don't like it. It is obvious. Don't even put that in the same sentence in the Midtown Road. I'm beyond the point of being disappointed.

This is going in the thread. I didn't say it was bad. I just said I didn't like it. I like him. I know. Okay. All right, a couple of Cleveland Indians to start the Wariometer. I think Jose Ramirez is going to be a mainstay here until he turns it around.

He's batting 194. He was the number one hitter in points leagues last year, number four in Roto. And we know last 38 games he had a 577 OPS. That's 38 games. This is 47 games. That's a total of 85 games with a like a 175 batting average or so. Wariometer 0 to 10 on Jose Ramirez.

17. I don't know what the Worryometer means anymore with Jose Ramires. Like, what new do we have to say? You are worried. He's not a 194 hitter. There's no way that he's a 194 hitter. So I don't know. I just I don't really have anything

It was a number Chris No I will not 17 no So he's not a Juan Oroirometer He's closer to a 10 Yeah

Something like that Okay fine If you were going to draft today When would you draft Jose Ramirez He does have 12 steals You couldn't Oh he's not draftable Bif the round

Yeah I was thinking fourth but fifth round maybe maybe six do his past stats for the season count towards my total so it's just what he is the rest of the way okay yeah then then fourth you know when chris asks a question like that heath i'm the one who answers i set the parameters for the games of the questions okay well it doesn't seem like it why i said yes okay heath doesn't give you a chance yeah right worryometer on trevor bower zero to ten gave up four runs in six headings through, again, 123 pitches. Why not? Stop that.

Why not, Frank Cota? Like, he, he believes that he's indestructible, and that's why he keeps taking these one-year deals, and that's great, but I don't know, man. Like, he threw a lot of pitches last season as well, but this is starting to get ridiculous, especially because it's not like he's been affected. Zero to 10.

So I have looked into the numbers a little bit. I think it's like a three. He's stopped throwing his curveball quite as much, and that's historically been his best pitch. So I think that's a pretty easy change that he could make. And I think Adam a couple of starts ago, you said they said on the broadcast he didn't have the feel for the curveball maybe. Yeah.

I think that's relatively correctable. I would just, I would rather see him throw 107 pitches in five innings next timeout. It may be nice if he could get through six innings on less than 100 pitches. It would. That would be very good. I would say it depends on what, like, the worryometer on Trevor Bauer being a top eight starting pitcher is probably up to like a six now. But the worryometer and him being part of that ace tier of the top 15 or 16, yeah, I'm with Chris. It's two or three.

I think there's an obvious thing we haven't mentioned yet. He's just, he's not throwing strikes. He's got four and a half walks per nine. That's a career high. I was watching the start yesterday and he'd melted down in the second inning because he just could not throw strikes. So I think you look at three straight years between 2.9 and 3.3 walks per 9. It's not elite, but that's good.

I mean, that's perfectly fine. I think if he starts throwing more strikes, he'll be better. Look, I have a team with Jose Ramirez and Trevor Bauer. And certainly... How's that team doing? Okay. You know, I'm like three roto points away from being in the third place. You know, so...

But I think I'm probably in like 6th or 7th. I'm going to write it out with Bauer. With Ramirez, you know... I'm not too. Yeah, with Ramirez, you know, I said this last week. I said, could you actually sell high on Jose Ramirez? With the thought of he's not that good, but a lot of people might think he is.

And I don't even know how I feel about Jose Ramirez right now. Like, I still think he's good. Yeah, that's the thing. I don't think you're going to get fair value for what I would expect from him moving forward, which is not... To be clear, the number one player in fantasy, because there's clearly something going wrong. But I would still expect him moving forward to be more of like a 270 guy with, like, maybe what we hope for from Tommy Fam is what I'm expecting moving forward.

But let's take Juan Soto, just for example, third round pick. You know, he was off to a good start. Then he went on the IL. Then he struggled. Hopefully he's snapping out of it. Who would you rather have, Soto or Jose Ramirez? Ramirez. Soto.

How can you say Ramirez when you just said he's like a fourth or a fifth round pick? You would take Soto before that, wouldn't you? I think Ramirez has a lot more ups, especially in a Roto. Well, that's the thing. That's why I don't know if you're going to get fair value for Ramirez, because you could probably get Juan Soto for him. That might end up being a great trade or might end up being a terrible trade because there's always a possibility that you trade Jose Ramirez,

and he ends up being one of the best hitters. I mean, he's been two years in a row. You know what I'm saying? I don't know what fair value is for Jose Ramirez, as we don't know what... I'm kind of in the same spot. I was with Chris Sale after the first month of the season. I just...

I don't see any value in trading him. And it's really hard to justify trading for him, unless you could give up someone who's not very good, but we can't give advice hoping for someone being irrational. You know, like if someone's willing to give him up for a cheap price, like a sixth round value, yeah, go get him. But it's going to be hard to actually do that.

All right. How about Chris Archer on the Worryometer? He now has a 555 ERA and a 143 whip after a bad start against Colorado. Chris Archer, Worryometer 0 to 10. What was at course? No, it was not. I know.

I mean, with his track record, it can't be higher than a 3 or 4, right? You mean his ERA can't be higher than a 4? because yes, it actually can be. No, seriously, no, Archer. What do you got? Four. Yeah, I'm not...

Probably a six or seven. Does he throw hard anymore? I feel like that's sort of a lost storyline with Chris Archer. He used to be a pretty hard thrower. I think he's like a 93-ish kind of thrower. Yeah, his average velocity is actually down this season about one and a half miles per hour. Yeah, he doesn't have the arsenal to get away with that.

No, and I think this, uh, this let's throw a slider and keep the ball on the ground thing is a really, really bad idea with his sinker. He, uh, he's given up a 752 expected slugging percentage on his sinker so far this year. So we might want to scrap that one, I think. As I argued with Scott last week about, Archer and his track record. I did agree that he was a buy low, but I am going to, because my argument was more about the past, not the future. I am going to amend that I really

don't, I'm just going to be the anti-Christ Archer guy. I'm only buying low on Archer if it's like Zach Eflin for Chris Archer. If it's someone that I picked up off waivers, don't have a lot of faith in going forward. Like I'd trade Jago to Reasy for Chris Archer. I would, I do not, I really don't know what to say anymore. And his next two starts are against the Dodgers and the Brewers. So I don't think I want to start Archer anytime soon. Yeah, that's a fair point. Andrew Benintendi, he is the number 39 outfielder in points leagues, number 52 in Roto. Andrew Benintendi, zero to ten on the Worryometer.

Six. There's some stuff in the profile that looks pretty bad. He's chasing more often. He's swinging more often. He's missing more often. And some of that could just be a little bit of chicken or egg. He's struggling, so he's pressing, so he's chasing. In terms of the exit velocity, it's down just a little bit.

He actually have a little better launch angle, but I'm not totally convinced that he's going to snap out of this soon. Yeah, and I would say he has a higher launch angle, but as a left-handed hitter in Fenway, who has, I mean, really just kind of average pop. I would think a higher launch angle in his instance might be a bad thing. He was in the 12 degree range last year. He's up to 17 degrees. I think that might lead to more infield fly balls and poorly hit fly balls than you would hope for. He should probably be more of a line drive guy.

And the Red Sox are only sixth and runs scored this year, so the counting stats don't look as good, plus he's not hitting quite as well. All right. I still think you could be worried about Benintendi, but I've seen some Benintendi trades lately that make me think you could still buy low on him and get a good must-start player,

maybe not a star, but someone that you're not taking out of your lineup. Starling Marte, zero to 10 on Starling Marte. My hunch is that it should be pretty low. Because he's still on pace for 30-ish steals. Most of the other things look pretty similar as far as his plate discipline. He has a 1.8 walk percentage,

which is incredibly low. Yeah, I know. Yeah, I would say I'm a three or a four. I still think he mostly looks like what I hoped he would. Yeah, I'd give him a four. I'd like it if he'd run just a little bit more. Keep the rhyme going. What's his floor?

All right, Starling Marte. You're a bore. Starling Marte is batting 244 with four home runs. and seven steals. Would you rather have Marte or Benintendi? Marti. Benintendi. Would you rather have Marte or Marcel Ozuna? Ozuna.

Ozuna. How about Daniel Murphy on the Worryometer? Zero to 10 for Murphy who's batting 176 right now. The Rockies just finished a stretch of eight straight games against left-handed starters, and he sat six of them with Mark Reynolds starting. Murphy, yeah, all right, 88% own, 46% started. and only played 23 games this year. Zero to 10 for Daniel Murphy.

11D 500. He has a 250 Wobah and a 222 expected Wobah. There's just nothing good going on right now. Yeah, 10. I'd prefer not to drop him, but if he's a straight platoon player, I'm not sure how much value he's going to have. It's really scary because the Rockies have a very obvious situation

that literally everyone who hopes they will do, and that's play Ryan McMahon at first and Brennan Rogers at second and Trevor Story at short. I disagree. I still think the best version of Daniel Murphy's a lot better than the best version of Ryan McMahon. That's true, but we don't have a time machine.

He was really good last year, a lot better than even Ryan McMahon's been this year. So I don't think Daniel Murphy just lost it all of a sudden in the office. He might have. He might have. I'm not going to say it's impossible. but I would want to give him more than, what, 80 at bats or whatever he's had? 74 at bat.

Yeah, okay, so where is he, where is Daniel Murphy in your first base, right? Oh, he's second base eligible, right? So where's he in your second base rankings? Heath, I see you have him 12 behind Senzel and Chavez, ahead of Jeff McNeil, Robinson Canoe. Yeah, it gets kind of ugly. Cotel Marte. It's just a terrible, terrible position.

Well, Scott has Cotel Marte 7th. You have Marte 14th. 16th. I think I'd rather have Canoe than him. Yeah, I haven't updated them since last week. Today is my day to update them. I will probably move Canoe ahead of him. I will probably move Marte ahead of him.

Is that because he's a part-time player? Because I think if you want to talk about an aging second baseman who's done, I think Canoe is more likely to have. Cano's profile looks much better than me. Wrong. disagree on that one, Adam. He is hitting the ball extremely well. But he can't hit lefties.

And neither can Daniel Murphy. I don't know that's true about Murphy. He might not get the chance to do it, but I don't know that that's true about Murphy. Why do you think it's not true about Murphy but is true about Canoe? It's not the strongest argument, so I'll give you that. Murphy was bad. Hold on, hold on, hold on. I'll tell you why.

PS against lefties last year. Yeah, but the year before he was really bad. So it's basically two out of three years now for Canoe. being able to hit lefties. Murphy had been very good against lefties in recent years. I don't know if he was last year. You know what? I can't really make that case. It's probably a toss-up. At least Canoe gets to play against lefties. I don't think Cano is that good. That's the thing. He is basically an accumulator. I think that Murphy at his best is an elite hitter. Canoe is nowhere near that. So that's why I would take Murphi.

Murphy over Canoe. But if Murphy's going to sit against lefties, then it's obviously changed just the story there. And the Rockies have faced the most lefties in baseball. Most of the bats against lefties, which is an unusual. But they will. They will. They will be up there.

And that's, you really have to keep that in mind. Last guy on the Wariometer is Tommy Fam. Zero to 10 on Tommy Fam. One or two. Yeah. I mean, he's not that far. He is in one of the formats. But what he's number 32 in Roto, is that right?

Yeah, 32 in points, 48th in Roto. He's got good plate discipline. and 31 walks to 36Ks for FAM. Yeah, and like on pace for 20 homers and 25-ish steals and hitting 280. Like, that's pretty much what I expect from Tommy FAM. And all of his bat-of-ball data through Stackast at least is all across the board very good, except he's hitting the ball on the ground just a ton. But he always has.

Yeah, I don't have any zero, I guess. For FAM? I think, yeah, I think FAM is a weird player. Like, is it possible that still at this point in his career, we don't really know what Tommy Fam is. Well, yeah. Has he played like a full season yet? What's his career high in games played?

I don't know. We're still dealing with relatively small sample sizes for a, what, 29, 30-year-old? Yeah, it's kind of weird. Plus he's had the eye history. Mm-hmm. So, all, Chris. I think it was Dayton Moore that said

you need 1,500 plate appearances, to know what a player is. And he's at 1660. So we know what he is. Low $800. OPS with a bit of pop and a bit of steel? Yeah. Speed.

Yeah. A bit of steel. All right, hey, Chris, I really wanted to talk about the Aces story that came out. You know, we talked about it in the spring training. Can I say preseason? Can I say preseason? It's baseball. We talked about it before the season started.

The Aces article was a metric that kind of measures the stuff of pitchers. And we had a re-release a few days ago. So we're going to get to that after Hey Real Quick. So let's do Hey Real Quick and let's really do it real quick. I'm going to give us a minute. and a half to do this. Hey, real quick, Trey Turner or Mookie Betts?

Mookie Betts. Mookie. I think they're pretty, they're basically even. Turner is going to steal. Yeah, Turner has six steals in nine games, so he could be the best in that category. And it's hit in 297,

so I think they're pretty even. Okay. Yeah, I would expect, over the rest of the year, Mookie, to get on base a lot more. I don't think that Trey Turner is going to have a higher slugging percentage or hit as many home runs as Mookie. Oh, hell. Heck no, no way.

I'll take Mookie. Yeah, I think it could be close in Rota. There's, Heath, there's a reason you had him, Trey Turner is your number one player in 2017, 2018. Right. In points, it's not particularly close to it. Yeah, I think in points, that's where the gap emerges. Agreed. Yoa Moncada or Max Muncie, real quick.

Munkata. I'll go Mankata just because I do always have concerns about Muncie's playing time. and I don't really about Munkata. I think Monsi's probably a better hitter against left-handed pitching than Munkada is, though. I wish the Dodgers would acknowledge that. Hey, he started 15 of the last 16 games, Muncie, but I still share your concerns. You never know what's going to happen down the stretch, or, you know, throughout the rest of the season. But I brought it up because he has been playing more.

And Mokata has cooled off. The last two weeks been pretty good, but he certainly has cooled off from that hot start. Hey, real quick, Pete Alonzo or Joey Votto? I think it has to be Pete Alonzo. It does. I will just point out that in the last 28 days, Pete Alonzo is the number 20 first basement in points, number 17 in Rodo.

He's still hitting for power. He's still hitting home runs, but the batting average is way down. He's batting 207 in his last 26 games. Yet I don't even know. What's Joey Votto done in the last 28 days? I can't find Votto on the last 28 days list. I'm not even sure he's the top 40 first base.

Okay. So we're taking a lot of Vado. It's a tough one? it's a tough look for our guy Joe Evato luckily for him I think he still has like four years and $85 million on his contract so he's going to be okay Aces Alright so the

The article came out Why don't you talk about it Chris you're much more well versed than this But what were your major takeaways from the re-release of the Aces story Yeah so Aces is a metric that attempts to quantify stuff So it takes into account velocity movement And command and to one metric. And the nice thing about it is that you look at the top of the leaderboard,

Noah Cinegarra, Jacob Bagram, and Garrett-Culler right there. So it automatically passes the sniff test in that regard. And so what's really interesting is when you get to guys who are a little less obvious, Frankie Montas, is the number seven pitcher in baseball based on that. And it's largely, I mean, he rated out okay by this metric before this season, but the splitter has taken him into the elite level. That's a big part of why I really do believe Frankie Montas can be a very good pitcher moving forward.

And then you've got Brandon Woodruff, number 11. That's really impressive. He's had sort of an up and down start to the season, but the stuff is obviously very good. Tyler Glass now, Chris Paddock up there. Maybe the most interesting one is right ahead of Luis Castillo, who obviously has great stuff is his teammate Tyler Malley. Yes. Has integrated a new, I believe it's a curveball. Yep.

And that pitch has rated out extraordinarily well. It's in the 89th percentile among all curveballs by this metric. And so that's a really good sign because he's someone who's always had great control and command. Now he might have a swing and miss pitch that he can go to. And I think that's why what we're seeing from him might not be a fluke. Yeah. Okay. So the three that really jump out are Montas, Woodruff, and Malley.

Also, Jonathan the Wise ago is sixth. He's got great stuff. He does. He's fifth, actually. No idea where it's going? Yeah, and he's on the IL. So, you know, Nathan Avaldi is on there too. Velocity is obviously important on this list. Yeah.

Which is why, and we talked about this with, we talked about this at the beginning of the season with Aaron Souseda, who writes the story. Lefties don't show up well on this list because velocity, because they have a lower velocity typically. So, you know, keep that in mind. Facts. Yeah, and if you go to the story on CBS Sports,

we have the top 10 percentile listed in the story. The rest of it, you can find on Sportsline. There's only one lefty inside the top 90, the 90 to 100 percent range. And that's James Paxton. He's like 15th, I think. So that gives you a hint of the edge that right-handed pitchers typically have here. And, you know, Aaron's talked about he wants to find a way to wait lefties

so that they're given a little more value, but you also have to keep in mind that left-handed starting pitchers just generally aren't as good as the best right-handed pitchers, and so that might be a part of it. Okay, and we should mention Zach Wheeler is fourth, and he is good.

And the walks are down for Wheeler, so you probably missed your chance to buy low, but maybe not. So there you go. He was coming off a bad start. No, he was good yesterday. He was coming up. Oh, the one before this was bad.

Yeah, yeah. It's 11 hits and six runs in six innings against Washington. All right, that's good stuff. Make sure you check out that story. If you want to see the rest of it on Sportsline, you want a promo code, use the promo code pitch to get your first month for only a dollar. Let's go through the rest of yesterday's action here. We did rank these starting pitchers part one.

Let's do rank these starting pitchers part two. Caleb Smith. Zach Eflin, Marcus Strowman, Julio Tehran, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jose Quintana. If you're watching the video, you only see five pictures there. There's a sixth one. It's Tehran.

I'm going to skip good the names again, Heath, sorry. The graphics guys were like you can't put Julio. Yeah, Taran was taking Taran out was the right choice. Okay, fine. So if we put Tehran last, even though he has a strikeout parading in a 367 ERA. He's not on the list. look at it

He's on my list But I mean I think you could make the case From him over Eflin or Stroben But you wouldn't do that I would put Caleb Smith in a I think he belongs in the part one Like I don't see why we put Domingo Armand

Ahead of him Oh I'd rather have him than Hermon And I'd rather have him than Wheeler I think I'd probably still rather have Wheeler But it's very close I really worry about Lippet Is legitimately good I worry about a couple things with Caleb Smith

I worry about wins. And what's his inning situation? Because it's two starts in a row where he's throwing five innings and five in a third. Now, one of them, he threw 106 pitches. But yesterday, why did they take him out? It was an AL park, five innings, seven strikeouts, 89 pitches at Detroit. So I don't know what his inning situation is. I know he threw 77 last year, 119 and a third the year before that.

He's going to be limited. Right. Wheeler won't be. But most to Ming-Hormon's inning situation. Yeah, I also don't know. But I know Wheeler won't be limited. I could see Armand and Smith. I personally would definitely take Wheeler over both of them,

but I mean, I get it. Smith is really, really good. Yep. Yeah, I think he has made some real improvements. And his change up especially has looked a lot better this season. So what about the rest of the list? You might have three plus pitches. What about Eflin, Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Kintana?

Cantana is far ahead of the rest of the group. Yeah. I think I would probably go Cantana. Shrug emoji. Yeah, maybe Stroman, Rodriguez, Eflin. I think I'd go Eflin, Stroman, Rodriguez. Just because I don't, like, Eflin and Stroman have been really weird. And Rodriguez has to a certain extent now as well.

But I feel pretty confident unless they're facing one of the two or three best offenses in baseball, I'm going to start Eflin in his next start. I'm going to start Strowman. I don't know how anyone could start at Wadar Rodriguez right now. Yeah, I think he's probably just more talented but that's not that might not necessarily matter.

I mean, you got Eflin and Stroman who have sub three ERAs and then you have Rodriguez who has 61 strikeouts in 54 and a third. I feel like we like we would typically like the profile better for Rodriguez over Eflin and Stromen.

it's hard to justify starting Rodriguez now. His next starts at Houston and then he's at the Yankees. Eflin, I'm not going to start at Milwaukee. Stroman, I probably am going to start against San Diego this weekend. Yeah, I think with Rodriguez, you're right in that we would like the profile more. And we have liked the profile more for five years now. Last year was a good year, though. Last year was a good year.

One year, well, I guess technically two with a 385 and a 382 ERA. Right. He's got a career four, two. five in 550 innings, and he doesn't stay healthy, and he doesn't pitch deep into games. He's kind of like Robbie Ray. Except he's never had the good year.

He's never had the good year. Yeah. So I think Eflin, not for my leagues, not for a lot of listener leagues, but, because I can't sell Zach Eflin for anything in my leagues.

Like, everybody knows. He's got 39 strikeouts and 68 innings. It's not going to happen. But I do think he's like a great sell. high just based on his numbers, you know? 100% agree.

Interesting thing is he does rate out very well by the Aces metric. So maybe the thing that's going to regress is that he's going to start getting more strikeout. It's possible. His velocity is down from where it was last season, but he does rate out as having five above average pitches, which

can go a long way. His whiff rate. They may be above average. None of them have been elite. You want any of these guys? Fringy starting pitchers. Chris Bassett, Dreadful. Spencer Turnbull, bad. Matt Strom, fine, but doesn't strike guys out.

But he's got a 306 ERA, 2.28 ERA since opening day, or his first start. Michael Paneda, Sunny Gray, Gio Gonzalez. Bassett, Turnbull, Strom, Paneda, Gray, Gio Gonzalez. I think Gray and Strom should be pretty close to universally owned. Okay. All right. That works. What about Bassett?

I know it was one bad start, but he'd been a pretty good story. Yeah, that's really tough because he's been. really good this season in a way that he never had been before. Right. And my assumption is typically to just say that's not going to happen, but his stuff is pretty good. I think he's 69% owned, which is right about where I would say that he should be. And so if you had picked up Chris Bassett because he'd been good so far,

this start would not be enough to make me drop him. But if he's on your waiver wire, I'd just leave him there. All right. Finally, we're going to end the show. We got about two minutes left, guys. with the matchups for today, start or sit. Frankie Montas at Jeffrey Rodriguez.

Montas. Luis Castillo at Zach Davies. Castillo. I'm only starting Castillo. I don't buy anything that's happened with Zach Davis so far. Brad Keller and Michael Waka. I wouldn't.

Yeah. Maybe Waka in a points league, but probably not. Marco Gonzalez at Jesse Chavez. I don't know. They're using an opener here? No. Yeah, I'll bench Marco Gonzalez at this point.

point. Okay, Merrill Kelly at Eric Lauer. No. John Gray at, I think an opener for Pittsburgh. Montana Durapew? Durapeau? Durapeau? Look, that's what it says right here. I'm going to go with John Gray.

Okay, I'll start John Gray, although he's been John Gray again this year. Sabathia at Dan Straeli. Sabathia. Yeah. And a lot of hitters against Dan Strelie. Rick Porcelo at Aaron. Sanchez. I think I'd start Porcelo.

Yeah. Shers are at the ground. We'll start them both. Jose Urania, Daniel Norris. No. Rich Hill against an opener. Tampa Bay. Yeah, you start Richel.

Yeah. Homer Bailey and Adam Wainwright. No. I thought we were never talking about him. Yeah, sorry about that. Lump of Cole. Cole Irvin versus Cole Hamels. Cole Hamels.

And Yvanovnava versus Garrett Cole. Eric Cole. Martine Perez at Matt Harvey. I'm starting Perez. I'm starting Perez. I'm not. I might. Max Fried at Jeff Samarja.

Perfect. Freedom. We're out of here. We'll talk to you tomorrow. He's got great stories about regression candidates, hitters and pitchers. Check it out on the website. And we'll talk about those on Thursday

along with some trade talk. Talk to you then.