Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Wed. Recap, New Closer, Regression Talk

Episode Date: May 25, 2017

Is Sonny Gray back (3:50)? Is Rich Hill a buy low candidate or someone to avoid? Is Mike Leake legit? We review yesterday's action and reveal a new bullpen arm you need to know about (10:50) ... Our t...houghts on Kyle Seager and Jose Quintana (21:10). Will they get back to their career norms? We're also searching for SPs that could be the next big thing and discussing Adam Frazier (12:00) ... Xander Bogaerts' lack of power (37:05), Milwaukee's crowded OF (38:40), Didi Gregorius' lack of respect (46:15) and more ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:14 Welcome to the show. It is Thursday, May something. May 25th. That's not right. Yeah. Good? I have no idea. All right. It's May 25th. I'm pretty sure. Just go with it. Getting ready for Memorial Day weekend. I'm going to tell Heath and Chris this right now. It's going to be a big surprise. I'd like to record two podcasts tomorrow. A little mailbag. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, for Monday, since we won't be in on Monday. It'll be a Friday mailbag. You're airing on Monday, so a lot of stuff's going to happen over the weekend we won't know about.
Starting point is 00:00:42 But anyway, we'll have fun with it. And good morning to you, fellas. It's an excellent morning because you're here. And I love the fact that when you come into the office, you wear a professional-looking shirt. I'm a little bit sad about the fact that I missed that it was Plaid Thursday. Yeah, we were talking. Well, I think Adams is more of like a gingham. It's more of like a picnic table cover.
Starting point is 00:01:03 Yeah, I think that's gingham. Geez, I used to love this shirt. Now it's gangham style. No, I'm not a picnic table cover. Gingham's just a style. Okay, yeah, gingham style. Did anybody ever say that? Both of these shirts are like a decade old, right?
Starting point is 00:01:16 No, this is a... You know what? Leave me alone. This shirt is great. Now, I want you to tell me... We're taking shots with your Arizona Cardinals shirt. Yeah, I've seen that shirt quite a bit. That was a regular rotation.
Starting point is 00:01:29 I want you guys to tell me what to lead the show with today. What jumped out at you? What's the big stuff to take away from Wednesday's games? Luis Severino was absolutely amazed balls. Really? He was And I've seen him pitch some this year I saw a lot of him last night
Starting point is 00:01:49 And as I was watching the start I was thinking yes I'm too low on him Because it wasn't a situation Where it was just the Royals He was really really good Not necessarily getting A huge amount of swinging strikes
Starting point is 00:02:02 But it's just so difficult To make hard contact On what the stuff he had last night I believe he said this was His best start of his career And I don't know if he meant like, you know, by the numbers or how he felt? There was an antidote on the broadcast last night that his meeting with Pedro Martinez
Starting point is 00:02:22 was the thing that turned things around for him. Well, yeah, and the change-up, obviously, for Severino. Actually, I had a section here called Crazy Aates, and Severino was part of it, and so is Jose Barrios. And Chris said, what's Crazy Ates? Have you figured it out yet? Those are the two guys in it, Burrios and Severino. always pitch into the eighth inning?
Starting point is 00:02:43 They both had ERAs over eight last year. Oh. Oh, okay. And now they both pitched yesterday, and they both pitched very well. Berrios, I mean, he gave up... Do you have two or three home runs yesterday? I think three solos, right? Yeah, I think so. He probably got left...
Starting point is 00:02:58 Because I think two of them were in the seventh inning. He probably got left in that game a little too long, even though the pitch count wasn't very high. Either way, seven strikeouts, four hits, three runs, in six and a third for Brios, who has a 166 ERA, four. four walks, 22 strikeouts in three starts. Severino now, 311 ERA, 14 walks, 61 strikeouts in 55 innings, and a great whip. But his previous four starts, he had a 450 ERA.
Starting point is 00:03:24 So this was nice to see, who would you guys rather own Severino or Burrios? Severino. Yeah, I've got Severino higher. The relief pitcher eligibility especially gives him the edge in head-to-head leagues, but just a bit more of a track record. We've seen him be good across parts of two seasons. this is the first time we've ever seen Jose Brillo's pitch while in the majors.
Starting point is 00:03:46 Would you rather have them or Sunny Gray? Both of them than Sunny Gray. What the heck was that Sunny Gray yesterday? Yeah, there's something interesting going on with him. He threw his slider like 35% of the time and got like 11 swinging strikes with it or something crazy. Nine swinging strikes with it. I'm very impressed by what Sunny Gray is doing.
Starting point is 00:04:06 I don't think he has the upside that either of those guys do, but I would like all three of them. them. I think he's got like 31 swinging strikes or 32 swinging strikes in his last two starts, and that's crazy. That's not the kind of pitcher Sunny Gray has been in the past. And I wonder if it's because he's throwing the slider more. Maybe. I was, so I was traveling yesterday. I didn't really watch that much, but I had that game on, and all I heard were the Marlins broadcaster is just glowing about how good Sunny Gray looked, and 11 strikeouts, one run and seven innings. I moved Gray up this morning, as updated my rankings, but it was. It was
Starting point is 00:04:41 It was up into the Shoemaker Wood Nova range, which is number five starting pitcher. And he could go higher if he keeps this up, but two starts is not enough to put him. Like, I've got Brrios and Severino in my number three starter range. Because Jose Brrios has made three good starts. Yep. I mean, it's just, you agree that Brio's, you're arguing something that you don't agree with. No, I absolutely. You have Burrios for entirely than grade.
Starting point is 00:05:07 I absolutely think Sunny Gray belongs in the conversation with Burrios. I haven't updated my rankings yet, but I think Severino is a clear step ahead. What are you waiting for, Chris? We're doing a podcast right now. But I think Severino is a step ahead of the two of them, but I think Gray and Burrios are in the same range. We've seen Gray be very, very good in the majors. Just not like this at all in a way that was completely different with a very good defense. If you look at these just like season long numbers, walk to strike.
Starting point is 00:05:38 Well, no, no, that's not really true anymore. more. Never mind. Scratch that on Sunny Gray. I was going to say they look kind of similar, but they don't. Not after yesterday. But anyway, like, you look at starting pitching, right? And every day, it just seems like we are, okay, it almost seems like the fringy starting pitchers. That segment that we do, that we've done for years, used to be the most important segment in the show. And now I feel like it's the least important. I thought now it was the only segment, because we talk about it so incredibly much. They're all fringe starting pitchers. But, like, Severino isn't anymore. He's an absolute must-own, and he's an absolute must-start.
Starting point is 00:06:17 Berrios is an absolute must-owned or an absolute must-start. I mean, and the guys that are fringy starting pitchers are almost all match-up guys. They're all the same. They all kind of stink, and you only want to play them in good match-ups. Now, when you get a guy like Joe Ross, who was, like, 60% owned yesterday, or 50%-0, whatever it was. Okay. And Berrios was there two starts ago. That's the thing is that I think with starting pitcher,
Starting point is 00:06:41 and maybe especially this season, we're more willing to react quickly. Jose Brrios has made three starts this season. Yeah. One of them was really good. The other two have been pretty good. And all of a sudden, we're like, this is a top 30 starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:06:57 This guy's must start. And it's like, this is still only 18% of his major league career. Now, he's clearly made some changes. But this was a guy who, while he was a top starting pitcher, pitching prospect was not necessarily viewed as the same way someone like maybe Alex Reyes was viewed coming into the season. He was viewed as maybe a bit more polished, but someone who a lot of people thought might end up in the bullpen in the long run.
Starting point is 00:07:21 And that's kind of the same thing with Severino. Okay. But you agree that right now you have to treat Burios as a must start, just given what your lineup's your roster looks like. I mean, the other fringy starting pitchers that I had in today's show were like Erasmal Ramirez, who had a nice start. Great pickup for Team Creth. Yeah, well, 12% owned.
Starting point is 00:07:41 I would have a brother started Lance Lynn. That's who we vinched for him, but... Still, great pick up. You benched Lance Lynn for Raspoor-Rabez? He had a Tud matchup, right? He had the Dodgers. Lance Lynn had two starts. Oh, one of them's in Colorado.
Starting point is 00:07:53 It's the right call. Okay, okay. Charlie Morton's 84% owned. He's barely fringy at this point. I think he's most on at this point, yeah. Charlie Morton? Yeah, all right. Daniel Norris had a good start, but he's been bad.
Starting point is 00:08:06 Jeremy Helixen, he's got 22 strikeouts of the show. here. He was terrible, right? Last night, yeah. He was awful. He gets the Rockies. I think he's got 16 strikeouts in his last five games or something, or 11, some crazy low number. Jason Hamill, since starting to pitch exclusively out of the stretch, has had two good starts and two terrible starts. He had a good one yesterday, and has a 540 ERA in those four starts. And Chris Tillman's been bad. He's got a 443 ERA and nine walks, 15 strikeouts. So again, it's like every day this fringy starting pitcher section is so lackluster, but you guys
Starting point is 00:08:39 tell me if there are any pitchers out there that could be the next Barrios or the next Severino. Severino was probably I don't know, 50% drafted? Just a guess. But he was at one point a waiver wire pickup. Oh yeah. I mean, we didn't think Severino or Burrios would necessarily
Starting point is 00:08:55 be the versions of themselves that they have been. So who's next? Joe Ross, I think. Yeah, Joe Ross is the most likely to jump into that top 40. I don't think there's anyone that pitched last night. that's going to get that high.
Starting point is 00:09:10 Maybe Rich Hill. Oh, well, he's already up there. He's 92% owned. Yeah, Richel was terrible yesterday, and he said the blisters were not an issue. We'll get the Rich Hill in a second. I do think it's like you mentioned Hamill. He did look very good last night,
Starting point is 00:09:25 had a lot of swinging strikes, and he's got two starts next week, both at Kaufman Stadium. He's probably somebody that was dropped almost everywhere. He's 18% owned. He's going to be a two-star sleeper heading into week nine. Okay. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:39 that's, and I kind of says something about pitching, doesn't it? Because I don't really want to trust Hamill. Do you? Well, you don't, like, again, it's a different expectation than what we've had in years past. Yeah. But he's been terrible, Heath. He has not been good this year. He was just good in his last start.
Starting point is 00:09:59 He's had, what, three good starts all year? All right, I'll give you some names here. Mike Fultenevich, 48% owned. Joe Ross is 58% Oh and that's the winner How about like every Rockies pitcher When they're on the road? Yeah I was thinking Tyler Chatt
Starting point is 00:10:15 Would pitch really well yesterday Walked four but allowed one hit over seven innings It's against the Phillies So who knows how much to take out of that But yeah they've got a lot of guys Who look interesting if nothing else Yeah I like Marquez I mean in road starts anyway
Starting point is 00:10:32 He's been very good on the road All right guys We'll get into all that I want to talk about Brad Hand. Brad Hand is 10% owned. These are his numbers. He's 0-3, but it's got a 173 ERA, 10 walks, 35 strikeouts in 26 innings. That's Brad Hand, who got the save for the Padres last night.
Starting point is 00:10:52 And inspired a wonderful string of tweets from Scott White's with Talk to the Hand Jiffs. Oh, really? Dad learned how to do Jiffs. It was very nice. I'm sure some of his cranky readers told him that he shouldn't be doing that. that. But no, is he the closer? Brandon Mauer pitched the eighth?
Starting point is 00:11:11 As of right now, I would expect that he is. I would assume so. Brandon Mauer is so mediocre. Bradhan's been really good since moving to the bullpen full-time last season, 292 ERA over 89 innings. Yeah, I like Brad Hand a lot. We've got him on Team Creith. He is on Team Creith.
Starting point is 00:11:26 With every reliever on Team Creeth. Exactly. San Diego is not good. They are 17 and 31, so don't expect a ton of save chances, but there's someone you can go for. And Adam Fraser's, 26% owned, getting a lot of emails and tweets about Adam Frazier, who is leading off for the pirates. I'm not sure if you saw what the pirates did yesterday, but they really improved their lineup.
Starting point is 00:11:45 Like, big development here, because they sat Andrew McCutcheon. It was huge for them. Boom. And they scored like 13 runs. Frazier's 26% owned. He's batting 370 with two home runs and two steals and six attempts. But nice one-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. He's got a 958 OPS and 107 plate appearances.
Starting point is 00:12:05 Tell me your thoughts on Adam Frazier. I wrote about him yesterday in Waverwire, and it's funny because we wrote about him right after Marte got suspended and how he may have a lot of playing time. And then like four or five days later, he got hurt. He got hurt. Went on the disabled list. Since he's come back, he's been unbelievably good. And I say unbelievably with heavy emphasis because I don't believe it. But I think he's probably a 300 hitter.
Starting point is 00:12:29 Yeah. And I think if he's leading off for the pirates, he's going to score a decent number of runs. So he has value in all deep leagues. He has value in all NL only leagues. I'm not there yet in a standard, even five outvillard. He's got a decent amount of positional versatility. I think he's outfield and at least second base, if not more than that. I think that makes him a pretty viable.
Starting point is 00:12:58 Second base at outfield. And middle infield. Oh, that is a reasonably viable. roto option. If we think he's a 300 hitter, and in 260 Major League plate appearances, he's a 328 hitter. He's got six steals in that time, four home runs. So, you know, over the course of a full season, I think you could view him as someone who might steal 15, 20 bases,
Starting point is 00:13:20 probably is a 300 hitter. Not a ton of power for Frazier. Adam Frazier or Devin Travis. Travis still. Adam Frazier or Jorge Bonafacio. That depends solely on what I. need. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:34 If I need some pop, then I'm going with Bonifossio. But it's more likely you need what Adam Frazier brings. It's a little rare. Yeah, the batting average, yep. Yeah. If you need a middle infielder, would you go with Adam Frazier or the guy who is the number four second baseman in points leagues, number 12 in Roto? It's a big difference.
Starting point is 00:13:53 Jed Lowry. Lowry. Probably Lowry. Jet Lowry, 21% owned. 4-4 with two doubles yesterday. Bob Melvin, his manager said this is the best Lowry. has felt, I think he said ever. I don't think he meant ever, but, you know, but let's just say in a long time. Four doubles in his last two games. Not great against left. He's just a switch
Starting point is 00:14:13 hitter, so, you know, if you're daily, you probably want to start Lowry against Ritees. But yeah, I mean, I never really believe in Jed Lowry. I feel like, I feel like for the past four or five years, there's been a Jed Lowry stretch and somebody, Al or Scott has been like buying it a Jed Lowry. But we are almost two months into the season. And like I said, he's the number four second basement in points leagues. He's number 12 in categories of Roto, batting 300 with six home runs, no steals. But Jed Lowry, anybody believing in this? There's not too much that's fluky about what he's doing so far.
Starting point is 00:14:49 The peripherals all look pretty good, walk and strikeout rate are in the brains that he's been in the past. And you do have to go back to 2013 to the last time he was good, but he did hit $290 over a full season with 15 home runs that year. I think that's the key is that's the only year in his career he's ever played 150 games. Yeah. And so you have to expect an injury for Jed Lowry at some point. Yeah. But that one year that he played 150 games, the slash line was 290, 344, 446. That's not too far from what he's doing this year.
Starting point is 00:15:22 So would you take Jed Lowry or Devin Travis? Travis. Travis. All right then. We have a lot more for you today. I'm going to ask you a bunch of questions. I'm going to give you guys some friendly advice because I like you. I'm your friend and I think I'm noticing something that I just think you guys are doing wrong
Starting point is 00:15:37 and I want to help you. So I look forward to giving you that advice. I've been like putting on deodorant stuff. I know you're in the office for the first time in a few weeks, but jeez. I mean, we'll talk about it a little bit later. But fellas, you need a good shave. You need to stop wasting money on razor blades. You need Harry's razors.
Starting point is 00:15:55 Trust me, give it a shot. I use my Harry's razor every time I shave. it's a great shave and it saves me a lot of money. And you know what else you need? A Father's Day gift. Those could be tough to get. He's a dad. He needs a Father's Day gift.
Starting point is 00:16:07 Check this out. Our friends over at Harry's have a special offer that you're going to love and Dad's going to love it too. Get $5 off one of their shave sets, including a limited edition Father's Day set at Harries.com slash FBT. You want that $5 discount? Harries.com slash FBT, as in Fantasy Baseball today. I'm actually going to do this.
Starting point is 00:16:27 Join me. I'm going to get this for my dad. It's tough shopping for $1. dad. It's a pain, but this is a perfect gift. Harries.com slash FBT for the Father's Day set and $5 off. Look, it's a close, comfortable shave. I love the shave ball, but saves you money, so why not use Harry's? Shave sets start at just $15 on Harry's, and you get that $5.
Starting point is 00:16:47 discount. So, again, go to harries.com slash FBT, get the special offer for fans of the show. Harry's going to give you $5 off one of their shave sets. A limited time only act now. That's harries.com slash FBT to get $5 off and to help support our show, Fantasy Baseball, today. All right, tell me if you think these guys are stud starting pitchers. Sunny Gray, Rich Hill, who said his fingers were fine, but his mechanics were a mess. Tanner Roark, who bounced back nicely yesterday.
Starting point is 00:17:18 And Mike, oh, two more. Mike Leak, who has a 191 ERA. Is he the – he's got to be the NL ERA leader. and Julio Taran, who had a good start at home against the McCutcheonless pirates. So we got Gray, Rich Hill, Tanner Roark, Mike Leak, Julio Taran, do you consider them studs? No. None of them are studs. There are, well, there are just, there are red flags with all of them.
Starting point is 00:17:46 And I view a stud as someone that I trust. I don't trust any of these guys, but I like all of them to varying degrees. I'll say, let's just do the stud index. I'm going to put Tehran at the top, followed by Rourke. You know, Rich Hill can't be a stud because a stud would have built up calluses from all that hard work, and he clearly hasn't. I'm still putting leak last. I get it. I understand why we keep getting tweets and emails saying, look at what Mike Leak has done.
Starting point is 00:18:20 Why don't you move him up? I don't think it's going to last. Everything for him is exactly the same as it was last year. His strikeout rate is within one-a-half percentage points. His walk rate is 0.2% of points up. Last year was a terrible year for Leak. But if you look at Leake on Cincinnati, he had three seasons. Look at his roadie R.A.
Starting point is 00:18:40 281, 407, bad, 2-91. So in two out of three seasons on the road, and this was a big-time fly-ball pitcher, right, Mike Leak? No, he's a groundball guy. so why was he so much worse at home? Well, Great America Ballpark is not a good place to pitch. Bad to begin with. And his margin for error is not going to be pretty, very high.
Starting point is 00:19:01 You know, he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, so he's going to allow a pretty high number of hits. All right, so even if you have Leak last on this list of Roark, Tehran, Gray, Hill, I don't remember how you ranked it. Are you going to move Mike Leak up? Where is Mike Leak? Leak in your race. Is he a top 50 pitcher?
Starting point is 00:19:22 I almost certainly have to move him up, I would guess. Let's just do it live on air. Mike Leak was 72nd for me before this most recent start. He's going up past Jason Vargas, up past Charlie Morton, up past Zach Wheeler, and he's going to settle in right behind Ian Kennedy at 66th. All right, Tanner, or Mike Leak, rather, 66th. That's not that good, but... That's in Bodo. He'll go higher in points. Give me number 45.
Starting point is 00:19:55 In those same rankings. You know what? I'm going to move him one spot ahead of you. 62. 62? Yeah. Okay. Number 45 in those same rankings is Lanslin.
Starting point is 00:20:07 46. 46 is Jared Eichoff. That's an interesting one. 47 is Irvin Santana? No, I think I'd have to go Santana there. 48 is John Lackey? I kind of feel like lackey might be done. 49 is Sean Manaya.
Starting point is 00:20:24 A lot of hype, not a lot of production. 50 is Rich Hill. Pitchell sucks. Rich Hill, all right. Look, Rich Hill, when he's on, he's one of the best pitchers of baseball. Is he a by-low candidate? Or is he a lose-your-spot in the rotation candidate, or what? He's a 10-day D-L candidate at all times.
Starting point is 00:20:42 This is the thing with, like, what are the Dodgers going to do with all their pitchers while we've seen? This is going to work itself out. Well, so you've got to be a little concerned that Rich Hill doesn't stay in the rotation. I would not give up anything of great value for Rich Hill. But if you could trade somebody on your bench that you don't really care about, sure. It's a big time upside play. We know that. Agreed.
Starting point is 00:21:06 But it's also a downside play, so you have to make sure that whoever you're giving up for Rich Hill, you're not in love with. All right, moving on. The two most predictable mid-round picks and fantasy are having horrible years. That would be, in my opinion, Kyle Seeger and Jose Cantana. Kintana got lit up yesterday at Arizona. I gave up eight runs in four and a third. And while Seeger did struggle last year, it was really for a month. Now it's almost two months where Kyle Seeger is batting 252 with four home runs.
Starting point is 00:21:33 You've got to like the 20 walks to 30 strikeouts, but look, this is a bad year. He had a 1050 OPS in May last year, so Seeger had snapped out of it much earlier. I always felt like Seeger and Kintana are just like two guys. You could draft. You know what you're getting. Right. Do you still feel that way with Seeger and Contana? Taeger? I did a lot of polls earlier in the week on who people want rest of season.
Starting point is 00:21:55 And what I found is the public perception on Kyle Seeger is still higher than the Heath perception. I've dropped him down to 12th at third base in Roto, behind Jake Lamb, behind Rendon, behind Travis Shaw. Interesting. Why? Oh, come on. I couldn't. No way.
Starting point is 00:22:15 You can't take Travis Shaw over Kyle Seeger. No, I'm serious. I'm seriously asking. I'm trying to understand your reasoning here. We're talking about someone who has been a consistent 25 to 30 home run guy, which is what you're hoping Travis. He's like a top eight third baseman every year. Last year was even better.
Starting point is 00:22:33 What's changed? He has been dreadful for almost two months now. Okay. It's like you believe in Nick Castellanos. You believe in Nick Castellanos. But even you said I'm going to have to move him down because he just continues to be bad. Right, but Nick Castellanos doesn't have near the track record Kyle Seger does. Kyle Seger's had a bad month and a half. Nick Castellanos, I'm
Starting point is 00:22:56 hoping that the bad month and a half is not just a continuation of his career. Kyle Seeger, I'm assuming that the bad month and a half is just what it almost certainly is, which is an aberration. I don't think there, like I had him below Rendon at the start of the year anyway, so I guess that wasn't really a move. Jake Lamb has been amazing. Homer off a lefty yesterday. Homered off a lefty. It was Kitata. I've just slowly moved him up like two spots at a time, and he's finally gotten to that point past him.
Starting point is 00:23:26 So I guess the one guy that you're not sure why I would have him is Travis Shaw. Like, you don't have any problem with Lamb ahead of Seeger, do you? I don't love it or hate it. I think they're in the same range. Yeah, Shaw's, you know, that's a big downgrade for Seeger to be behind Shaw. And because a big part of what you're. loved about Travis Shaw isn't happening this year. He's not hitting fly balls.
Starting point is 00:23:52 No, but he is getting the production in Miller Park. Sure. But do you, yeah, I just, I don't know. How confident are we that Seeger's going to turn it around? I'm very confident. I don't see any reason not to be. I feel he's going to have the worst year that he's had in the last five. Okay.
Starting point is 00:24:12 How confident are we that Jose Cantana is going to turn it around? Pretty confident. I think this is the one that confused me. I was talking about Sunny Gray earlier. Kentana is the guy that if you look at a lot of his ratios, his batted ball profile, it looks pretty similar. The walks are way up, though. But that wasn't a problem yesterday. He didn't walk anybody in four and a third.
Starting point is 00:24:32 But less hard contact than last year, more fly balls, but more pop-ups. I don't know. I looked at his fan graphs page. I don't see anything from Jose Cantana peripherally that says he should be this bad at 482 ERA. That's the same thing with both Seeger and Katana. I just think it's probably, I'm sure both of these guys had stretches like this last season that were just buried. At what point, though? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:24:54 And we got this email yesterday. It was like the third one about y'all play scared. And I don't remember the exact email, but the guy was asking, okay, April's too early. May, mid-May, which now, I mean, May is over next week. May is too early. At what point do we say, okay, this guy is having a bad year? I think it's easier to say that about a hitter. because he's had so many more played appearances than a pitcher who's made eight starts,
Starting point is 00:25:20 nine starts. But yeah, look, it's getting to the point where it's concerning. However, this does happen. I mean, because I want to talk about Carlos Gonzalez, right? Jose Cantona last season from May 20th to July 9th had a 4.570 RA over 10 starts. Okay, that's 482 over probably nine starts this year, something like that. Like, I just, when do I get concerned when the underlying skill set appears to have changed? But there are years where, like, the reason we do regression candidates in March each year is because there are years where guys just don't snap out of it.
Starting point is 00:25:54 But that's, yes. But that's, assuming that they're not going to play to the skill set that they're showing, moving forward, I think, like, unless there's, like, a compelling reason to believe it, like, Michael Panetta. Michael Panetta is someone that, for his entire career, has just not pitched to his peripherals. So I think that's a reasonable thing to. continue to assume moving forward. That's never been a thing for Jose Cantana. That's never been a thing for Kyle Seeger. These are guys that you look at the underlying skill sets,
Starting point is 00:26:24 and they look exactly the same this season. No, Kentana's got a 383 FIP. It's a half run higher than his career. It's the walks. He's got a 4-38X FIP. Okay, sure. The walks. Yeah, but that's just weird.
Starting point is 00:26:35 And I think the walks have been trending in the right direction for him. So that's giving me a little. But that's what I said about Tanaka, too. I was like, oh, Tanaka is going to be. fine, he's just walking people, and then he stopped walking people, and he still got hammered. Yeah, I still think Tanaka's going to be fine, too. Tanaka's pitching tonight against the Royals, if you believe in Tanaka, now it's time to make offers.
Starting point is 00:26:54 I think that game's already been rained out. Really? Yeah. The Yankees wanted no part of Miguel Almonte? Oh, that sucks. Tanaka versus Almante? That got raided out? I believe we got an email saying that now I'm sure that I'll end up being wrong.
Starting point is 00:27:08 I hope so. But, uh... Let's move on. All right. Anyway, let's move on. Speaking of Yankees, let's talk about the Yankees with the rest of the show. Jacoby Ellsbury left with a concussion. He's going on the 7-Day DL and a sprain neck, which might be something that keeps him out longer than the concussion.
Starting point is 00:27:24 He ran into the outfield wall in the first play of the game. Aaron Hicks, 58% owned. Now he has cooled off, Aaron Hicks. Last 10 games, he's batting 167. He does have two home runs. One of them was as a Yankee Stadium as it gets. He does have eight walks and nine strikeouts, which is nice. and on the year, Aaron Hicks has, what's it, like his OBP, 426.
Starting point is 00:27:49 He's just so many walks, 24 walks at 22 strikeout. All right, 58% owned. He was available in two leagues. I didn't pick him up yesterday, but what do you think? I believe he is swinging less than any batter in baseball currently. 34.2% is his swing rate, which is really low. And I don't know how much, like he's always been relatively low. he's 41% for his career.
Starting point is 00:28:15 I don't know how much of that. It's just pitchers aren't throwing him anything in the zone. But I don't know. I haven't been buying the Aaron Hicks breakout, and I'm going to continue to not buy it. He is certainly more interesting if Ellsbury misses a chunk of time. And this is one of the things I'd been saying about him that I wasn't really buying into it. But to his credit, with the hit of, like, Holiday Gardner, Ellsbury,
Starting point is 00:28:43 It was really hard to believe that those three were going to stay healthy all year long. He gets the opportunity, then he becomes a borderline number five outfielder. I mean, he's a power speed guy as it is right now. He's got eight home runs and six steals in 103 at bats. And again, a 426 on base percentage. Yeah. He has cooled off. But also a 27% hard contact rate and a 27% soft contact rate.
Starting point is 00:29:05 Well, six of Hicks's eight home runs, I believe, have come at home. So if he's going to take advantage, and he's a switch hitter, but if he's going to take advantage of the short porch, you know, Maybe he can outperform his hard contact, like Didiogorius did last year? Oh, I think, yeah, you don't – Miller Park, Yankee Stadium, if you're a left-handed hitter, you don't need the hard contact. He has not, of his eight home runs, none have traveled more than 396 feet. But you don't have to hit home runs more than three-eighths. He hit like a 320-foot home run.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Yeah, five have been 360 feet or less. I don't know if it was 320, but it was very small. All right. Would you rather have Aaron Altair or Aaron Hicks? Altair. Altair. Aaron Hicks or Hunter Renfro Homer yesterday's
Starting point is 00:29:46 Keeping it going Probably Renfro Okay Let's check in on the aaces Corey Klober will make a rehab start today Dallas Kikev expects to start Saturday David Price could start next week That might have been
Starting point is 00:29:58 Night had been his last rehab start I just could be He got lit up May Yeah he got He got rocked and Left to the park Without speaking to anybody
Starting point is 00:30:07 I've seen so many bad rehab outings That just haven't mattered He's throwing 94. Okay. Yeah, putting it out there. Christian Yewitch Day to Day, Today, Jake Lamb, Homeroffel, lefty. Houston Street began a rehab assignment.
Starting point is 00:30:20 We talked about this yesterday. I don't know. If you're desperate for a closer, it's not the worst person to stash, but probably but Norris? Probably pretty close to the worst person you could stash. There's at least 40 worst pitchers to stash. In terms of his skill set and the chances that he becomes closer, you put it all together. It's bad.
Starting point is 00:30:38 Yeah. Go get Brad Hand if you need a closer. Toronto Outfielder. Anthony Alford will be out a while with a fractured wrist. Yonder Alonzo expected back Friday. Travis Darno off the DL, but René Rivera started for the Mets. That's just not going to last that long. Once he stops hitting, it'll be Darno again.
Starting point is 00:30:55 Margo, Manuel Margo, left with lower leg tightness. Nate Carnes is on the DL with nerve irritation in his arm. That could be a quick one. Mitch Hanager nearing a rehab assignment, and Homer Simpson is being inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame. That is tremendous. He played one game. He drove in the winning run. We're going to talk about, like, you know, oh, some people think Kirby Puckett shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.
Starting point is 00:31:19 Homer Simpson played one game. Give me a break. I want you to know how lame I am. First of all, I'm here in Florida now where I actually have friends in a social life, people who still live here. I live in Westchester County without a car. I have, like, no friends and no life. So I stay home all the time, basically. And over the weekend, I made a 32-person bracket.
Starting point is 00:31:42 I guess, like, 32-team bracket of the best Simpsons characters of all time. Okay. I want to actually, like, make it part of the podcast. Because what this started from was that, you know, I tweeted, or somebody tweeted me about the Mount Rushmore of Simpsons characters. I retweeted it, got a ton of response. It has to just be the family, right? Almost nobody said that. So I actually think if you're going to do this 32-person, 32-character tournament, it should be who's the second best Simpsons character of all time.
Starting point is 00:32:09 Homer's a Hall of Famer. I mean, nobody's beating Homer. But I put that together. I think I'm going to try to make it part of the show. I want people to participate. I see if I can post it online somewhere. Can we just do that on Wednesdays? What?
Starting point is 00:32:20 You're not here? We can try. But who's the second best Simpsons character of all time? Yeah, it's got to be Bart. For me, it's Burns. Most people go like Burns, Flander. Who? I'll abstain.
Starting point is 00:32:38 You don't like Simpsons? Yeah. I don't like it. It's never really got into it. Your elitist. East Coast. All right, lineup stuff. Trevor's story was back in the lineup for the Rockies.
Starting point is 00:32:50 I'm going to tell you something. You tell me how significant it is. Logan Forsyth, 49% own, has let off both games since coming off the DL. Both against Ritey's. Also got third base eligibility, which no one would ever play him at because there's like 45 other third baseman. Minorly significant? Yeah, minorly? Minorly.
Starting point is 00:33:09 Is that a word? It is now. It might be a word. You've got big league significant and minor league significant. Bider League significant. Jacques Peterson sat after his Tuesday collision with the Osseopuig. Chris Taylor was in center field. Let's see if...
Starting point is 00:33:24 I believe that's the first time he's ever played the outfield as a professional. They like Chris Taylor, I guess. Javier Baez led off Ben Zobras sat. Significant? Byaz, by the way, over the last almost month, he's like the number one shortstop in Roto. or yeah, Rodo. You don't believe that?
Starting point is 00:33:45 I don't. I'm almost positive. It's true. And I'll tell you why in a little bit. But he's hit, look at his slash line. Yeah, he has, he started to look like someone that if he played every day would be my stone. That's why he's not number one in points. Because the bats aren't there.
Starting point is 00:34:02 But at Roto, Baez, over the last almost month, I think he's number one. I'll sell as that. All right. Michael Franco sat for the second straight game as they're trying to get. him right. Nicholas Castellanos, same thing. He's going to sit the next two games. I would assume that's kind of the same thought process.
Starting point is 00:34:18 Bullpen stuff. Edwin Diaz walked two, but he did not give up a run in a non-save situation. So that's three-scorless inning since losing the closers role. He'll be back. Justin Wilson gave up his second home run in three games. We don't care, right? Team Creth dealt him away just in time. Coda Glover pitched the ninth inning of a four-run game through a score.
Starting point is 00:34:37 He's so clearly, he threw a scoreless inning with a strikeout. Glover so clearly. Well, there was a dusty bacon. quote basically saying it's his. Okay. I believe what he said was this is the job he's wanted and now he's got it. Glover or hand? Glover.
Starting point is 00:34:49 Glover. You sure? Just by dint of having... He's going to lose that job soon when they make a trade. If Brad Hand pitch for the Nationals, it would definitely be Brad Hand. Listen, you all have to pick up Tommy Conley because he's so good and there's a very good chance that he's the closer in a month for the White Sox. And even if he's not, y'all stop playing scared and pick up Tommy Conley.
Starting point is 00:35:11 Fernando Rodney, last eight appearances. One hit, no runs. Opponents have a 197 OPS against Fernando Rodney, 58% O. And it didn't even happen after he got cut this time. Rodney or Glover? Glover. Rodney or hand? Cody Allen.
Starting point is 00:35:29 Anybody who pitches in a safe situation, I will put over Fernando. He is the absolute bottom of that list. Cody Allen struggled yesterday. We don't care, right? Nope. Okay. All right, here are some questions for you. and some friendly advice in just one second,
Starting point is 00:35:44 because I have to tell you about a promise I broke to the listeners. I lie to them. I told you listeners that if you challenged me in draft, that I would whoop you, that I would destroy you. I lost all three of my draft contests against listeners on Tuesday, and I was traveling yesterday so I didn't get to accept any. But my username is Big Cain, too. Please keep following me, and I will accept some.
Starting point is 00:36:05 I can't play 15 a day, but I will accept some requests. Anyway, download the draft app. Search Draft in the App Store. It's going to come up first. Compete against me or your friends or strangers. Beat them, win money, or play for free. Great offer for you on Draft. Download the app and use the promo code FB Today.
Starting point is 00:36:24 You're going to get a 100% bonus on up to $600. $600 when you deposit and you use the offer code FB Today. Draft is the best daily fantasy app because you can do snake draft every single day. And your chances of winning money on draft are almost three times better than on Fandor or Draft Kings. But seriously, the snake drafts, such a fun way to play daily fantasy. Big Kane 2, challenge me. I'll accept some requests.
Starting point is 00:36:48 Let's play for a dollar or for free. But you have to download draft, and you have to use the promo code FB Today to get that bonus money. The promo code is FB Today. Sounds like if they challenge you, they're playing for free either way. Pretty much. No, they're making money. Right.
Starting point is 00:37:02 I was actually doing quite well on draft before Tuesday, bad day. Some questions and some friendly advice. Can someone tell Zander Bogarts to hit a freaking home run, please? He and Dustin Padraea are the only two players in baseball with at least 100 batted balls who do not yet have a barreled ball, according to baseball savant. Interesting. But Bogartz is the number four shortstop in points leagues. However, he is number nine in Roto.
Starting point is 00:37:30 He's hitting 331 with no home runs, seven steals, which is great. He's having a good year. He's not even getting any home runs. And he's going to hit some home runs. So is Bogarts Top five, right? Shortstop? I think I have...
Starting point is 00:37:44 Yes, I have him fifth. Bogarts or story rest of season. Bogarts. Yeah. Bogarts or Lindor. Lindor. All right, so basically his value hasn't changed. Yeah, the interesting one for me, I think, is between Bogart's, Sagarra, and Turner.
Starting point is 00:38:02 Oh, they're all stealing now. Yeah. Those three, I think, are... kind of in a tier. I'd put Lindor ahead of those three, and everybody else is quite a ways behind them. Who hits the most home runs? Bogarts, this going forward. Bogarts, Turner,
Starting point is 00:38:17 or Seigura? I guess I'd have to say Sigura. Really? Not Bogart's. Bogart's Lindor? No, Bogart's Turner, Segura. Yeah, I'd have to go Sigura. Okay. I mean, Bogart's got
Starting point is 00:38:35 a 125 career so we've really only seen him decide to be a power hitter once. Yeah, all right. What is your take on the Milwaukee outfield? Since Ryan Braun has returned, Braun is sat, Santana has sat, and the other guy. Broxton? Broxton has sat. Meanwhile, Arnon Perez is playing all the time.
Starting point is 00:38:56 Maybe he'll sit today if they play today. That's just kind of my assumption is that everybody's going to get a lot of time off. And at some point they have to, I mean, I don't know if they have to figure it out. It's working. Would you rather have Keon Broxton or Aaron Hicks? I'm going to say Broxton, but it's We're getting really close to the point
Starting point is 00:39:16 To where you have to wonder why I'm assuming Ellsbury will go on the 7th ADL Oh yeah he they got rid of the 7DL No no no, concussion We'll see how long it takes Because that's the thing with concussions It's really from what I read this morning It might be the neck injury that's
Starting point is 00:39:33 Yeah Like they'll put them on the 7th ADL but the neck injury might keep Ellsbury out. Ellsbury, I mean, he does things that other players do. Other players get up, miss a day. He misses five weeks, you know? All right, but you're right. I mean, Broxton certainly, Hicks could be, again, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:51 playing two out of three, two out of four games in 10 days. So could Broxton? Yeah, I guess. He did Homer yesterday. He's still hitting well. Yeah, well, it's really weird. He's got a 271 batting average with a 434 bad. Bip. He strikes out almost 40% of the time.
Starting point is 00:40:10 He's got to hit home runs. Yeah, I'd rather have Hicks. All right. You talked me into it. What's your take on Mark Reynolds, Hararopara in Desmond? I've been waiting for Mark Reynolds to start losing playing time and for his ridiculous over-the-top hot streak to end, and both seem to be happening. So that's good.
Starting point is 00:40:30 Well, Reynolds has a last 12 games. He's batting 273, but no extra. base hits, but he's still walking a lot, Reynolds. 407 OVP. I don't, he's better than PARA. I think he's better than PARA. I think he's relatively safe until Dahl gets back. And, like, we keep hearing Dahl's getting closer. He's getting closer,
Starting point is 00:40:54 but he's not, I don't think he's even taking batting practice. I mostly just don't, like, see much of a reason for Mark Reynolds to be owned as a first basement. I'd rather have Justin Bore. I've got a reason. Why? He plays at Gorsfield. that's fine but he like he played a course field last year and we didn't own him yeah we didn't really play that well last year
Starting point is 00:41:14 that's kind of my expectation all right the walks are interesting for reynolds but okay fair enough he has sat the last two games against righties uh do lorry garcia or max kepler interest you i think max kepler's interesting he's 39% home which was higher than i expected he has a seven game hitting streak kepler's hitting pretty well right now i think he's probably
Starting point is 00:41:34 he was someone that we got really excited about last year when he had that ridiculous hot streak and I was poo-pooing it because that's what I do. But now that nobody's very excited about him. Yeah, exactly. I liked him after he was cool. Exactly. No, I think he's got an interesting skill set and he is hitting more fly balls and more line drives this season. He's hitting the ball consistently harder.
Starting point is 00:41:58 So I think there's enough to like about Max Kepler that I'm definitely keeping an eye on him. Max Kepler or Cole Calhoun? Calhoun still. Yeah. Okay. Interesting. I think Calhoun stinks. But Max Kepler or Melki Cabrera?
Starting point is 00:42:17 Probably Kepler. Yeah. Cabrera's just so average. Unless you're in like a deep league where if Cole Calhoun gets dropped, he's definitely getting picked up. Wouldn't you just rather just play the hot hand? Calhoun has been miserable this year, and he's just not that good. He was the hot hand just a week ago. He was?
Starting point is 00:42:34 I think so. I don't even... Okay, I guess I missed that, but... It didn't last a long time. It's not that... He's, you know, he's upside as like the 30th best outfielder. Right. Max Kepler, I don't think, has any higher upside than that. I disagree.
Starting point is 00:42:47 I mean, because it sounds lofty, but having a year where you're the 30th best outfieler might not be that great. You know, like Brett Gardner's done that three times. It depends. If it's one of those situations, like we've talked about with Hosmer or Hunter Pence. There's a lot of situations where you might end up ranked fairly high, but that's just because you were here the whole time. You were never one of the 30 best outfielders. I would rather have Kepler or Maven. I would rather have Kepler. Maven and Roto. Next question. How dropable is Oduble Herrera? He's 70% owned.
Starting point is 00:43:17 I'm benching him, but not dropping him. Chris has an interesting Oduble Herrera fact that I won't steal his thunder. Yeah, I saw this yesterday. We knew his walk rate went really high last season and I believe he has been, he has the highest increase in swing rate from last year to this year. He's gone up from 48.4% last year to 55.2. That can explain a lot of why his walk rate's gone down. Well, Aduba Herrera has one walk, 23 strikeouts in May. Outfield is pretty amazing, so I think, I personally think he's quite droppable. In April last season, he had 23 walks. Last five months, he had 40 walks. So to me it seems like one.
Starting point is 00:44:01 But he did hit 15 home runs at 25 steals. I don't want to take that away from him. But as far as just the walks go, it seems like one month, last April he had 23 walks. I think that's relatively fair. I expect that he will get hot at some point, but he's not going to match last year's production. I would rather have him than Kepler. For sure.
Starting point is 00:44:18 Okay. That's Oduble Herrera. Give me two starting pitchers you would trade Chris Sale for. And I don't mean, I mean at the same time. I was thinking about this, like, you can't sell Chris Sale or whatever. because he's just too valuable. But would you trade Chris Sale for Carlos Carrasco and someone similar to Carlos Carasco? You know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:44:39 Lance McCullors and Zach Grinky. You would do that for Chris Sale. Let me read you this trade. I got to go searching through the emails. I do want to spend the last 10 minutes or so on emails because we just haven't done enough of that. But it was a Kershaw trade. And, okay, here it is. This is from Addison.
Starting point is 00:44:55 Give Kershaw. Get Dallas Kikell and Kuykel and Kekyll. Corey Kluber. Kiko and Kluber for Kersh. I mean, my whole thing is that you don't want to invest heavily in pitcher because they're so injury prone and you're trading for two pitchers who are currently on the disabled list. I don't see how I could do that. That's the only reason why, because they're both on the DL and you just never know. Like, especially Kluber. I'm pretty confident Kikos coming back on Saturday. But Kluber is making his rehab start today. He's been a little slower than we thought. I guess my problem, or the thing I like about it, is if we're saying all pitchers are injury risks,
Starting point is 00:45:38 I'd rather have two good ones than one great one maybe. And I would say that if they were not currently hurt. Philosophically, I think that with the way pitcher stacks up now or there just aren't that many that you can start every week, the way that you would trade one of the top, three pitchers right now, maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but Kirshaw, Shurzer, Sale, they seem to be sort of ahead of the rest at the moment, is to get two top 15 pitchers. I think that's an interesting strategy.
Starting point is 00:46:12 That's probably true. Yeah, think about it. All right, finally, here's some friendly advice, guys. This is an exciting opportunity I'm going to offer you guys. I'm selling tickets to the DD train. I need you guys to hop on. I think I am the current high guy on D in our ranking. I looked at the rankings.
Starting point is 00:46:34 They're shameful. What do you mean? I've got him like 19th. He's better than that. Since returning from the DL, he's the number four shortstop in fantasy. And that is how I know that Javier Baez is number one since April 28th. All right. So who does he deserve to be ahead of?
Starting point is 00:46:51 Addison Russell. No. What has Addison Russell done? And I know that D.D. Gorgias is going to do most of his work at Yankee Stadium. But he hits lefties really well. So that's not an issue anymore. He doesn't hit for a lot of power against them, but he's hitting like 3.30 or something. He's a good player.
Starting point is 00:47:08 When you say he hits lefties well. The average. Right now. Last year. Last year. All year. What has Addison Russell done? Nothing.
Starting point is 00:47:19 95 RBI, 21 homers last year. Yeah. I don't see the RBI. I don't see him. But what did he hit? 240? Yeah. He's just...
Starting point is 00:47:30 Who was better in Roto last year? D.D. or Addis and Russell? D.D. was like 14th or 12th or something like that. They were probably pretty close. You know what? I'm just telling you, fine. You want to keep Russell?
Starting point is 00:47:42 That's fine. You got to get on the D.D. trade. He's good. I've moved him up. I think he's fine. I've got him in my top 20. I'll move him up. All right, good.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Walk over the trade. Just to get him in your top 30? No, he's inside my... Yeah, he's definitely inside my top 30. I've got him ahead of Danes B Swanson. As well you should. Hmm. Okay, let's see.
Starting point is 00:48:02 What are we going to do with the rest of the show? We're going to talk about yesterday. I forgot to talk about a couple guys yesterday. Danny Duffy and Dylan Bundy, I love that they pitch on the same day all the time. They both pitched well on Tuesday. Danny Duffy pitched well at the Yankees. He apparently has fixed the mechanical issue with his hip. His hips were flying open, and the velocity's been very good.
Starting point is 00:48:22 And he was throwing like 94 late in the game on Tuesday. So I think that's a great sign for Duffy. And Bundy, I don't really know what to say about Dylan Bundy, but I may have spoken about him a little bit yesterday. But I did want to bring that up about Danny Duffy. I thought that was interesting. Fix the mechanical flaw. Velocity is better now. That's good information to have.
Starting point is 00:48:42 I mean, he's had two very good starts against the Yankees back-to-back. One at Yankee Stadium, very encouraging. I've got Duffy as a top 25 starting pitcher. And I feel more – like I'd never – really dropped him too far, but I got to the point to where I felt like, do I have Duffy too high? And now I just feel comfortable with it. Okay. Did you, oh, Joe Be Ageny is another guy I wanted to talk about, just because I watched
Starting point is 00:49:08 the start, and the fifth inning was like the most unlucky inning I've ever seen, seeing eye single after seeing I single, and he had a shutout going into that, so I don't know. I'm not saying that Joe Be Ageny needs to be owned, but if you just looked at the line at Milwaukee on Tuesday, three runs and four in a third. You were disgusted by it. It wasn't, it was not nearly that bad. There's a, there's a term for this. What's that?
Starting point is 00:49:34 Confirmation bias. I mean, but we don't know anything about Joe Beijini. No, I haven't. I just, I've decided that you like the song. Yeah, I like the song. And so you're, you're gonna, you want to keep singing the song. So you're gonna keep pushing this Joe Bea Jeannie thing. I just like, have you seen Aladdin?
Starting point is 00:49:52 I have, yeah. How many wishes do you get? You get three? Yeah. Well, I think he's used two of them. Okay, well, I'm just saying he was so unlucky in that fifth inning that he would have had to be a genie to get out of it unscathed. I just, he, well, thank. He's yet to go more than five innings.
Starting point is 00:50:11 He's yet to face more than 20 batters. Yeah, I know. It's an uphill battle for Joe Beagee. I don't. I don't know. Okay. Double don'tongs and cargo shorts. I don't know why, but Cargo had to make this list.
Starting point is 00:50:25 Anthony Rizzo doubledonged. He's got four homers in his last four games. Stephen Sousa said that he just relaxed to play. He was putting too much pressure on himself when he was terrible for about a month. And he had a two-homer game yesterday against the Angels. And Carlos Gonzalez appears to be heating up. 392 with two home runs in his last 13 games. And he looks like a glorified Justin Upton last few years.
Starting point is 00:50:49 Very streaky. Carlisles Gonzalez could be one of the worst hitters in baseball for weeks at a time but he seems to always turn it around Anthony you know what let's talk about this some other time what are you going to say about Rizzo Was Stephen Sousa putting too much pressure on him the previous two full seasons as well This is who he is he strikes out way too much to take advantage of What are some really interesting skills?
Starting point is 00:51:15 He's an athletic guy who's got power but It's really hard to take advantage of that if you strike break out 35% of the time. You have to be elite at pretty much everything else. And he's not. He's not Miguel Snow. He's not Aaron Judge. If, if Anthony Rizzo continues this tear for like another two weeks, I'm going to bring up that discussion we had a week or two ago about the, he's going to go on a tear to get his numbers back to the, whatever you're going on. I know. And I've thought about that multiple times since we had that discussion. because I think I was kind of right in the middle and still right in the middle of, I understand math-wise Chris is right and you were wrong. And not just like math-wise, but like major league history-wise.
Starting point is 00:52:03 Like your whole argument about Kyle Seeger is that he's not going to make up for the lost time, right? I don't think I said that. Well, you said you think it's pretty clear. You think he's going to have the worst. You said you think he's going to have the worst career of season of his career because of what he's done so far. Okay, yeah. But you don't think the underlying skill set has changed. I mean, there's...
Starting point is 00:52:23 So you're applying that... Some struggling... Okay. But I think Carlos Gonzalez is sort of an example of what I would say. I think Carl... Hitters have... No, it's definitely not. ...carrible cold streaks and extreme hot streaks.
Starting point is 00:52:37 Right, but that's not... But that's not the argument. That is... The argument is that because he's been cold, he has to get hot to make up for. I think a guy like Anthony Rizzo, yeah. You don't adjust... your expectations up because a players had a cold streak.
Starting point is 00:52:52 Maths-wise, Chris is right. No, I don't think you... You expect Anthony Rizzo to be Anthony Rizzo moving forward. That will mean some hot streak, but it also means... What about Carlos Gonzalez? That's kind of like semantics, though. Like, yeah, of course, there will be hot streaks. That's what I'm saying.
Starting point is 00:53:06 But what you're saying is that to get to a 920 OPS by the end of the season, which is where we expect Anthony Rizzo to be every year, he has to hit a 970 OPS for the rest of season. No, you should expect him to have a 920 OPS. Carlos Gonzalez from now on, I would expect to have an 850 OPS or whatever his baseline. But that's not what he's going to do. He's going to have a 1,000 OPS for a month. But your expectation should be that he should be the person that he is moving forward. No, I don't know. I see that I don't agree with.
Starting point is 00:53:31 But I also think it depends how long into the season you are. I mean, like if it's a long slump, then you have to reconsider. Maybe there's something more serious. You look at the underlying skill set. And that's why I wasn't ever worried with Carlos Gonzalez because he's just. No, or Rizzo. You weren't worried about Rizzo either. And that's why I'm not worried about Kyle Seeger.
Starting point is 00:53:47 But Kyle Seeger's not getting up any riso or Carlos Consulate. But if I'm saying... But Chris, like if Jose Cantana, right, had the very similar ERA stretch in the 10 starts mid-season last year. And then I get, I'm guessing if you took that away and you looked at his numbers in the other 20 starts, you're looking at an amazing pitcher. Yes. So three ERA probably. Why do I not look at, if you expect Jose Cantana to be the 330 ERA guy that he's been every year?
Starting point is 00:54:12 Because you don't expect him to, you expect him to be a 330 ERA guy. moving forward. You don't expect him to be a 25 ERA guy to get to a 330. I mean, you should expect the- With that particular case, I agree. But with Rizzo's case, I felt like there was a, like, 1,200 OPS hot streak coming over a few weeks. Sure, definitely was. But that's always true.
Starting point is 00:54:34 Like, within that 920 OPS, you expect a 1,200 hot streak. Yeah, I know. I think we're arguing the same thing. If you know a player is, you expect him to have a 920 OPS, and you expect him to have hot streaks and old-street. And my argument is... And he's already had his cold streak. But my, no, my argument is that you don't, like, it's not like you check off a box.
Starting point is 00:54:52 He had his cold streak. Okay, now he has his hot streak. Sometimes you have two cold streaks. That's kind of... Yeah, but sometimes you have two cold streaks instead of just one. Sometimes you never have the cold streak. Sometimes, Bryce Harper's 2015. I'm talking about Rizzo.
Starting point is 00:55:07 I'm talking about Rizzo, though. But you shouldn't just change your expectation for a player because he's been good or because he's been bad. You should expect him to play to the skill set. Whatever you think that skill set is and reasonable people can disagree on that. But when I look at Kyle Seeger, I don't think Kyle Seeger is going to have a 950 OPS for the rest of the season to make up for lost ground. I think he's going to be Kyle Seeger moving forward. And if I'm trading for Kyle Seeger, I'm not trading for him with the expectation. Well, look, he's got his cold streak out of the way.
Starting point is 00:55:37 Now it's all hot streaks from here. He's just rolling downhill. If I trade for Kyle Seeger, I am expecting better than standard Kyle Seeger. I don't know if it's going to be I'm not tremendous. I think I think I think that's a fallacy. But he's going to get hot. And he's going or he could just have another.
Starting point is 00:55:53 He could. From now on he could have the same production. Like that's your expectation should be that he is who he is. I don't know. I get that he'll be who he is. I get that you don't agree. I get that you don't agree. But like.
Starting point is 00:56:08 But the logic and history is on my side. I don't agree that. No, no. Like I can find out. I will go home. Give me Carlos Gonzalez. Right there. Like Carlos Gonzalez is a perfect example.
Starting point is 00:56:19 He's a streaky hitter. Yeah. But you should expect him to be a streaky hitter. I honestly feel like we are saying the same thing. We're not different. We're definitely saying different things. They're both going to get hot. I will find my baseball prospectus by the numbers book.
Starting point is 00:56:32 They have a piece in that. I will bring it in tomorrow. This has been studied. All right. And I'm not saying it applies to everyone. I'm just saying I look at Anthony Rizzo. He's super cold. His numbers are going to be where we expect them.
Starting point is 00:56:44 be at the end of the year. And if you are, I guess his OPS will be a little lower. We will keep this, we will look at the end of the year and see what happened with Anthony Rizzo. He will be the one that determines who is right and who is wrong. All right, emails. John in Boston.
Starting point is 00:56:57 Who has the single most devastating pitch in baseball? Cinderguard slider, McCullors' curbball, a Kirschaw pitch, or other? It's Cindergard Slider. Did you guys see Burrios' curveball yesterday? Yeah, you know, the Jose Fernandez comps like makes sense to a certain extent. partially it's one's Puerto Rican, one's Cuban, and people just kind of assume that's the same thing.
Starting point is 00:57:20 But also, like, Breas''s curveball, it's bigger than Jose's. It doesn't move quite as hard, and I think it's just not quite as good, but it's really good. Yeah, it was nasty. It's Cindergarde sliders. It has, like, a 35% swinging strike rate. That pitch is ridiculous. This is from Sean and Kingston.
Starting point is 00:57:37 Dear Peter, Joe, and Chris. Okay. Family guy. Yep. Would you trade Cody Bellinger and Johnny, Quato, Cody Bellinger and Quedo, for a catcher eligible Kyle Schwerber and Dallas Keikle. Bellinger and Quato for Swarber and Keogel.
Starting point is 00:57:52 Yep, I would. I would. This is from John. He says, hey, Brett, David and Zach. Royals? Royals pitchers, Brett Saberhagen, David Cohn, and Zach Granky. Royals saw Young winners. Ah.
Starting point is 00:58:04 I was hoping Heath could clear something up for me that's been nagging at me. I commend him for his lifetime loyalty to the Chiefs and Royals. But what's up with KU? Heath is from Missouri. He should be a Missou fan, not a fairweather bandwagon KU fan. If he went to KU, that is far worse. So what's the story with that? I actually spent one semester at Emu. You are such a bandwagon fan.
Starting point is 00:58:29 That will make it even worse. I'm not a bandwagon fan. I've been a KU. At least you went to UM, right? Of course I went through that. You're one of those. But I also grew up at you like. You're like the only person who went to UM and reached for them. We got 10,000 undergrad.
Starting point is 00:58:41 I became a KU fan at nine years old watching Danny Manning, and I just always stayed a KU fan. Okay. And I actually, I mean, Kansas campus is very close to the border. I lived much closer to the campus than I did to Columbia. State lines are mostly arbitrary. I just went with the college that was closest to me. Okay. The question that John had from fantasy baseball, 16 team headhead points league, please rank these.
Starting point is 00:59:11 hitters. Give me your top three rest of season. Position eligibility does not matter. Oduble, Justin Boer, Maibon, Matt Adams, Devin, Travis, Tommy Joseph, Geryel. I think I'm going Oduble, Boer Joseph. Yeah, that's probably right. Over Devin Travis. Yeah. And Boer, you have Herrera number one over Boer? In a points league, yes. That one's tough, because Boer does actually have pretty good play. But he doesn't walk.
Starting point is 00:59:43 Oduble. Yeah. I mean, we might have to dispel that. Yeah. Bore over a doble. Okay. Heath? Still O'Dobo?
Starting point is 00:59:51 No, because Boar's had a hot streak, and so I know he has a nice cold streak coming. This is from Jay Lou in New York. Devin Travis or Jose Ramirez? Oh, Ramirez. All right, this is from, I'll say this one for last. This is from Bob in Chicago. What's up with Aledmus Diaz? That's a tough one to answer.
Starting point is 01:00:08 I've dropped to Ledmus Diaz in my rankings. We don't have the long track record with him. Let's talk one hit wonders tomorrow. That's a topic we need to discuss. Kevin in Texas, would you drop Poo-Holes for Boar? No. Maybe? It's not an answer.
Starting point is 01:00:29 It was an answer. Maybe. Thanks, Chris. I think they're both in the 17 to 23 range at first base. This is from Coach Mack. he says, Dear Mr. Feeney, Mr. Garrison, and Mr. Finn. Teachers.
Starting point is 01:00:48 Who's Mr. Finn? I don't know. I'm assuming they're teachers. Well, it's got to be teachers. He's a teacher. I'm a geometry teacher in Greenville, South Carolina, a long-time listener. Sometimes in class, I will pose questions
Starting point is 01:00:57 just to see how the students arrive at an answer. More concerned about the critical thinking part of this exercise more than anything. So with that said, is just an up and dropable for the likes of Gardner, Shebler, Morrison, smoke, holiday, or Kepler, 12-team 7-by-7 category league is just an Upton-droppable for Gardner, Shebler, Morrison, Smow, Colliday, Kepler?
Starting point is 01:01:19 Nope. No. We did not give him our thinking. You know, I'll critically think it and say if all those guys are available, that means you've got decent waiver wire, play the hot hand, Upton's not that good anymore.
Starting point is 01:01:33 He's just not. He was really good. Yeah, that's like six months ago. That's, this is, and, okay, let's, let's, let's steer into the, to the question. The critical thing is, okay, we'll play the hot hand. You want to play Justin Upton when he's hot, sit in when he's not. How do you tell? Well, he goes into prolonged stretches. Like right now he's unbelievably cold. Sure. But it might last, it might last, another two months.
Starting point is 01:01:58 I don't think it's going to last night. It might. Last year, he got dropped. I remember he got dropped in one of my leagues and I picked up Upton and he had a huge finish. Yeah, he was great. But what's the trigger? Oh, I don't. Like, no, I'm asking your decision. you're the one who's saying you're going to play the high hands. Right now, I'm sitting. Okay, but when do you decide to hit him? When you start hitting. He's a good week. I'll put him back in.
Starting point is 01:02:18 What, okay. Yeah, that's not that. It's not rocket science, honestly. Yeah. I'm just not sure. It's not rocket science, but it's not any kind of science. And that's what I struggle with. He's an annoying player.
Starting point is 01:02:33 Yeah. So like, and I think you just kind of, you should probably just ride it. I think, well, you definitely sit him. I think at the end of the day, he's going to be better than all these guys. That's fair. I would not drop him for these guys. I would be sitting him, and I don't mind the idea of with streaky players like this, you make them show something before you put him back in the light up.
Starting point is 01:02:50 I think what Chris is trying to say, I'll just paraphrase to end the show, is that Justin Upton, we can guess where his numbers will be at the end of the year. So he's really cold right now. His history shows he will get high. Yeah, he's got to make up. Yeah, exactly. I flipped a coin five times. It came up heads for, so the next one's definitely going to be tick.
Starting point is 01:03:07 Coins play baseball. Exactly. All right. Thank you, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.