Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/27: Memorial Day Mailbag! (Recorded Friday) (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 27, 2019

Check out our pre-recorded mailbag show as we give you some bold predictions that hopefully came true over the weekend and read your emails including Grade the Trade and Fantasy Regulators. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Hey, what's up? Thank you for spending your Memorial Day with us, everybody. We are recording on Friday, May 24th.

You are hearing this on Monday. And hope you're having a great holiday and a great three-day weekend. And we'll be back with our typical show on Tuesday. Adam Azer here with Heath Cummings and Chris Towers. Thank you guys for being on the Mailbag show. Oh, anytime. You know, it's a day off, but we're here because we're dedicated to the show and to our listeners. I've already had 17 beers.

Oh, that would be fun. So, actually, that would be kind of a lot. That would require a lot of cheers. It is. It's a lot. Yeah. What's your record? I don't.

That's childish to keep track of those types of things. Please. We used to play a game. in college where it was it was I care it was something about wizards and you would tape your 12 ounce cans together and the goal was to try to build a tower it was a wizard staff right taller than yourself the stupidest thing I ever did was well not the stupidest thing I ever did but the stupidest thing I did related to this somehow we got into some sort of argument my senior year of high school about who could drink

the highest number of beers in one hour. And so for that particular event, I believe 14 in one hour was my record. Oh, my gosh. 14 in an hour. Yeah. It's too many. Yeah. Andre the Giant.

I had to clear out space once during the process. Oh, once? But I did finish. Wow. My goodness. The stories about Andre the Giant drinking. I never got to finish the documentary. But they are pretty amazing.

But 14 in an hour, I'm not even sure if he pulled that off. A beer every four minutes? It was awful. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, it was terrible. Here we go with baseball.

Email of the day is from David. I have an idea for Friday's mailbag show. You should each predict two big, bold storylines that will happen over the weekend. When you return on Tuesday, you'll either be right or we'll get to laugh at your poor prediction. Must be a bold guess, though. Am? Yes. I have an even better idea for the Friday mailbag

Can you send us the notes so we can I'm reading the notes I said that I didn't know I didn't know He's in them just to me yeah I didn't really didn't want you to be here I don't know how you didn't get that impression earlier I feel like I should clarify that no one should ever do what I just told the story about doing it's irresponsible Oh no you have no you should not have done it

I agree I agree I just want to make sure it's no one thinks I'm endorsing it It was bad yeah Okay, so bold prediction number one, because this is the way things generally go for me. I made a big thing this morning about dropping Joey Botto for Vizio. I am going to predict that Joey Botto has seven hits in the next three days, and three of them are home runs. Okay, that's pretty bold. My first prediction is that Tyler Malley is the most added player in CBS Sports League after seven innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts at the Cubs this weekend.

The Marlins extend their MLB-long winning streak to nine games, and Dave Martinez loses his job as a result. That is not bad at all. All right, round two. The Royals sweep the Yankees in Coughman Stadium. And... Get your own narrative. Domingo Hermon.

gives up six runs. Okay. Now we're just talking crazy. My next bold prediction is that David Dahl, picking back, piggybacking off of Heath and his somewhat bold call the other day, David Dahl, three home runs over the weekend against the Orioles.

Is that even bold? Four home runs over the weekend against the Orioles. Okay. Okay. Vladimir Gerels. has his first multi-homer game in the majors twice. Oh, four home runs. Wow, okay. All right, good stuff.

Thank you for that idea, David, and thank you for your thoughts, fellas. And we have three categories of emails. We have the regular old-fashioned emails. We have the grade of trade, and we have the fantasy regulators today. Let's start with a regular old email. I need to correct something.

It's fashioned, isn't it? Fact check. Vladimir Guerrero has already had a multi-homeowner. Oh, I think I'm going to correct my grammar. He's going to have a second. And it's third. Okay. Are you sure?

Yes, at San Francisco on May the 14th. That's right. That's because I said, oh, he just needed to escape that cavernous Toronto Stadium. What the hell is it called? Roger Center. To go to Central. Oracle Park? Oracle Park.

Yeah, Centra. Okay. First email is from John. What is up with Brian Reynolds? I've heard zero about him and he's hitting 320. How does Brian Reynolds compare to some of the other rookies? I don't see a ton of reason to be excited about him. In the minors, he was routinely hitting 300.

But without a ton of power, now he's hitting for power, both in the majors and in the minors so far. But it's 146 plate appearances total. So it's hard for me to get too excited about that. He might kind of fit into the same profile we were talking about with a couple of guys earlier, maybe even the Nikki Lopez type profile, except for the fact that he does strike out a lot more than he walks or has in the minors and has so far in the majors. So it may not be quite as helpful in points and doesn't do enough in categories besides batting average.

A 15-team five outfielder league, he should definitely be rostered and probably started. Ryan Reynolds, not an everyday player for the pirates. Close to it, but not every day. John from Virginia, standard 5x Categories league with OPS instead of batting average. Obviously, highly owned players like Joey Gallo and Junk Peterson have more value in a league like this, but it's hard to find Steele's guys who hit with a respectable OPS.

Here's the most impossible question we've ever gotten. Who were some players with lower ownership percentages that you would recommend to pick up for steals without hurting my OPS? Oh gosh, I don't, I don't, Byron Buxton, he's probably owned in that. format already, maybe Colton Wong. He's slowed down on the hitting side considerably, but he does have seven stolen bases. But most of the guys who aren't owned are already going to be... If you were a good hitter and you steal bases and you have a good OPS, you're owned.

There is one possible exception. Kevin Kiermeyer is hitting 242, but he does have a 748 batting average or OPS. That's not a great OPS. OPS, but it's probably not killing you. And he does have six deals and five homers and, you know, has 20-20 potential if you can just

stay healthy. Okay, that's a pretty good call. Great job. Thank you. You're welcome. Next email. It's from Adam. Dear Zach, Tom, Tim, and Brad. These are... These are... The male members of the

Taylor family in Tooltime? Or a full house? No. Probably. Home improvement? Yeah, yeah. I was going to say, these are actors I look like, Zach Ephron, Tom Hanks, Brad Pitt. I didn't have a Tim.

Why'd you go with Tom Hanks, though? Was there like a hunky Tom? That's the only one he kind of looks like. It seemed like you were going for like heartthrobby guys. And like Tom Hildston's an attractive man. Who the hell is that? Like you could definitely play Tom Hanks' son who lives at home. Tom Hilson?

Like the run. It lives at home. Oh, yeah. That is rage against the machine. Oh, okay. So I was wondering if you guys could talk about Alex Reyes working his way back as a starter. He had a start in the minors and was around 97 and hit 99. Alex Reyes.

He's going to need an opportunity to open up in the Cardinals rotation first, but given how Michael Waka has pitched so far this season, that might not be too difficult. So it's mostly, as it always is with Alex Reyes, a question of whether he can. hold together. And, you know, right now he's only thrown, I think five innings is the most he's thrown in the start this season. So we're still probably a couple of weeks away from him getting that opportunity, especially because he was really having trouble throwing strikes, both in his very brief major league time and then his first five appearances at AAA.

Okay. Email from Weston. What are your projected stat lines for Whitmerfield and Adelberto Mondesie? And is there really any trade that you wouldn't take for Joey Votto right now? I'm trying to swing something to replace him, and I'm honestly targeting players just better than WaverWire material. Yeah, I'd take most any player better than Waver Wairoar Material. That's like 220 guys.

You're saying there are 220 players you would trade Joey Votto for right now? I'm not sure if Joey Votto is good anymore. I mean, fine. So you have moved him outside of your top. 18 at first base? I think he's 14th. Okay. So,

like there's probably some, like it depends on in a 10-team league, I would take anyone. In a 12-team league, there's probably 40 players or so that I wouldn't take for him. Okay. And what are your projected stat lines for Merrifield and Mondesie? I don't think we've really

seen much from either of them so far this season that is unsustainable. I would think, Monasty, I would guess, probably hits closer to 260 than 290. Yeah, at Merrifield, I would say, 295 with 20 home runs, and 35 stolen bases, and 100 runs scored. Okay. Okay. Thank you.

Let's take a break from the regular emails and do some grade the trade. grade the trade from Brandon from Edmonton Canada that's Brendan not Brandon grade the trade give up Blake Snell and Nick Senzel for Ronald Acuna and John Gray Snell and Senzel for Acuna and Gray I it probably depends on what your need is but I think it's pretty close to fair I would probably take Senzel over Gray and Snell versus Akunia I I think it's pretty close to a toss-up. So I think you're probably more on a C-minus area, but it's not terrible.

Yeah, I think C-minus is fun. Travis Seidel, I gave up these three players for these three players. Josh Bell, Tanaka, and Robbie Ray. Four, Blake Snell, Patrick Corbyn and Hunter Dozier. A. Yeah, that's awesome. Good job. Yeah, definitely.

From Rob, subject line is Karea. for Meadows. Is Carlos Correa for Austin Meadows a fair trade in a dynasty categories league with OBP and slugging? I have plenty of infield, but I'm having to start guys like Marwin and Renfro in my five outfielder league. So I gave up Carlos Correa for Austin Meadows. Yeah, that's really bad. There was an interesting question on the end of the last grade the trade that I would like to have Chris answer. Oh, should I drop Hunter Dozier for Joey Votto? I think so. Yeah. Heath? I assume you have Hunter Doja

ranked lower than Joe Yvada. I think they might be 14 and 15. You have Joey Vada ranked higher. So you would have to drop Hunter Doge? Or you're just a huge liar. I could be a huge liar. Wait, why is this Correa for Meadows trade so bad? Meadows is, you know, having a great year.

Shortstop, super deep. I wouldn't do it either. But when you factor in that he's, starting Marwin Gonzalez and Hunter Renfro, maybe you have to overpay for a young outfielder in a dynasty league in Meadows. I think if you shop Carlos Correa around the league, you can do better than Austin Meadows. Well, first of all, like, it's an auction league, so you do have to take into account age. And Austin Meadows is young.

He is about eight months younger than Carlos Correa, who is a proven elite player. Austin Meadows is having a very good start to this season. But he had a sub-800 OPS last season. mostly ran up sub 800 OPSs in the miners. And Meadows, I've been lower on him, and maybe that's just incorrect. But I don't see a superstar profile there for fantasy. All right, those are some grade the trades.

What should we do next? The regulators or back to some regular old emails? Let's regulate. Let's do it. I'll make the music a little louder. All right. Put in fantasy regulators in the subject line and send us an email at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. We will regulate your commission disputes.

And here we go. The first one, I'm going to name for you. Hey, shut up. First one is Pat and Indy. And Pat says, Uh, Pat says, I play at a weekly points league.

Roster's lock on Monday when the first game starts. This is, okay, this is by the way, two lineup locks ago, but still appropriate. I started Cole Calhoun, hoping to capitalize on his hot hand. Later in the day, after the rosters had locked,

the Angels announced that Calhoun would be missing games this week due to paternity leave. I messaged my commissioners asking if they would consider allowing me to sub Castellanos into my lineup in place due to the unforeseen circumstances. Castellanos had already played but scored zero points on Monday. The commissioner said absolutely not I had to stick with Calhoun. Rosters were locked and that was that. I would not expect a roster sub in the event of an injury, and I'm not even sure I'm right to expect one here. For paternity leave, what say you? Your commissioner handled this correctly.

Marion Webster Dictionary defines lock verb as to restrict access to the full functionality or data of a computer, mobile phone file, etc. Especially by requiring a user to verify their identity. So that's not really irrelevant. But Locke means Locke. Good job, Commissioner. Anytime. Okay. Back to some old-fashioned emails.

This is no name here. Dear Jack, Shelley, Danny, and Scatman. Those are the Beatles. Do you know who they are? Yeah. They're from Liverpool, England. I have no idea who they are. It's the Shining.

I don't know who Scatman is, but pretty sure. That's the... Shining. Is DJ LaMayhew a top 12 second baseman rest of season in a points league? DJ LeMayhew. I'm thinking about trading Brandon Lau for pitching while the iron is hot, but not sure about LeMayhew's playing time or production when the Yankees get back from the I.L. Playing time, I think, is the bigger concern.

He's playing pretty much every day right now. He's playing very well. But what's it going to look like when D.D.E. Rigorius is back. and that could be, you know, within the next three or four weeks. But it's really going to come down to DJ LaMayhew or Shella, right? Probably. I would think LeMayhew would win that battle,

especially as well as he's been playing. I have him 13th rest of season in head-to-head points. I think there's a very good chance he's a top 12 second base. He's currently number six in points. which is cool. Let me see where he is in Roto. But it's all batting average. I mean, does that concern you at all?

Because it's right now on Friday, DJ Lemayhew has a 127 ISO. It's all batting average. He's walking, too. Yeah, but that's generally what DJ LaMahue does. He's having a very DJ LaMahue season, which I was surprised. I didn't expect that out of course field.

But, you know, he's on pace for 90-plus runs and 75 or so RBI. So you'd like to see him steal a little bit more, but he's having a very good season. And he has led off basically every game since April 23rd. Yeah, okay, so he's actually sixth in Roto. I apologize. I'll try to look up where he is in points,

but I guess it's conceived why. I don't think he's going to lose that much playing time. Because I think he can play some first base as well when they want a DH Voight, stuff like that. Plus somebody else will get hurt. Jake from Ontario. Is it good to be? tactics or foul play to trade your excess of player depth to the worst team in your league,

rather than dropping those players so other teams can grab them? I think it's brilliant. I think it's, yeah, it's very smart. Okay, this is from Marshawn. I'm finally giving up on Robinson Canoe. Rank these guys going forward in a 10-team categories league are any of them must add. C.J. Cron, Hunter Pence, Scott Kingery, Shinsu, Chon, and Miguel Cabrera.

Robinson Cano is better than all of them. I get that you want to give up on Robinson Canoe, but his batted ball data all pretty much across the board suggests that he should continue to hit like he did last year at the very least. Yeah, he was one of the guys

that I featured in my regression column that Adam teased three times this week and never actually discussed. It's so true. Yeah, it's true. I sent it out in a newsletter. Believe me, if Chris had written it, we would have discussed it. Let me just see where Canoe...

One of the benefits of being the boss. Last year, Canoe only played 80 games. He had 303 with 10 home runs. Did not steal a base. Great plate discipline. 22 doubles. So you multiply it by two. You're talking 303 with 20 homers and 44 doubles.

You know, without any steals, I just think, I just don't think. think he's that valuable in a category. That's fine, but let's compare him to these guys. Chew is the one guy I think could be better. And to me, like, in a 10-team categories league, I'm fine streaming hitters and playing the hot hand, and right now, I'd pick up C.J. Crone. Yeah, I mean, I kind of look at him very similarly to how I look at Robinson,

how you framed Robinson Connell. Like, Robinson Canoe only gives you batting average. C.J. C. Crohn only really gives you home runs. This guy has hit 30 homers consecutive seasons. There's a reason nobody's ever excited about having him on their fantasy team is because he is very much a one-trick pony. And also he's not hit 30-home-runners in consecutive seasons. He's only done it once in his career.

Yeah, definitely not. But no, I'm just saying like in a shallow format, hitters are plenty. Like, I guess maybe it depends on your record. If you're 7-1, then keep Canoe. If you need to win right now, I'm going with Crone. Okay, from Zach, dear Bram. Brett, Mike, and John. Hmm.

I don't know. Famous Farves. Common first names. Brett, Mike, and John. I'm seeing a lot of political stuff here. Okay. Question is, 10 team head-to-head categories league

with offensive strikeouts. I have too many rookies, and I can't fit Max Muncie or Corey Seeger into my lineup, and nobody wants them in trade. So please rank these rookies. Michael Chavis, Eloy Jimenez, Nick Sender,

Zell, Austin Riley. And this is where it gets in. Are we ranking these guys as if they're all four in the utility spot? Or do we give Chavez and Senzell the bonus of having second base eligibility? You give them the bonus because he really wants to know who to trade. I think you, this is not to say that I think they're going to be the worst of the two, but I think they probably have the most value right now. I would try to trade Travis and Riley and get.

What kind of player could you get? You have to get someone really good. Who's Travis? I'm just going to go get my food. Chavis. I would trade Austin Riley. Okay. He really left to go get his food.

He just did a dope. He ordered food right before he went on the podcast. So now it's here. All right, we're going to take a quick break. I'll be back. I just have to go pick up. Okay, okay. Go get your pizza.

We'll take a quick break on fantasy baseball. When we come back, a lot more of your questions, your grade the trade and your fantasy regulators. Welcome back, everybody. Question from Matt. There we go, from Matt. Gosh, you can't speak. What's the dropletometer on Cody Allen and Colin McHugh

in a 16-team league with 28-man rosters? Ooh. Now, he doesn't tell us if it's a Categor's League, but I'm assuming that it is. I would say that McHugh is at like a 3, and Allen's at a 4. Here's one from Big Tom Callahan from Ohio. Subject, insert Heath's scy before and after.

What a stupidly fun game before and after is. That was when we took like Garrett Cole Hamels. What was the other one? Oh, Domingo Armand Marquez, et cetera. I was absolutely shocked that baseball reference has no player with the last name of Kevin and equally shocked that I could not find a Frederick for both a first name a last game. I feel dirty about the last one too, but I wanted to win.

What is he talking about? Dear Kevin, Frederick, Tyler, Austin, Riley, and Pint. Oh, thank you. Dear Kevin, Frederick, Tyler, Austin, Riley, and Pint. Okay, there you go. That helps. That was from...

Chris came back with no food. Oh, I left it at my desk. There's a sign right there that says no food or drinks. Okay. Also, Big Tom wants to know. No, I butcher this email. Our quick thoughts on Chris Bryant. I think at this point, you have to consider that he's mostly back.

You know, most of the battle ball data supports that. He doesn't seem hindered at all by the shoulder. He's running the bases really well. So, yeah, I think he's back. And, like, maybe back and better than ever. Maybe. He's got a career best strikeout rate. he's got a career best ISO

he's got a career best walk rate I don't know that I'll hold up but yeah I don't have the preseason concerns seem to be not concerned anymore I know Scott was the most concerned about him but I think he wrote this week in one of his pieces that he's pretty much gone past that

PS Shield or Game of Thrones pick one and as the only one who's seen both shows the shield's better Game of Thrones is more fun. Game of Thrones is the most fun show I've ever seen. The budget is just, you know. Your reactions to this season of Game of Thrones have been completely baffling. I could see how you would say that.

They have not been the popular opinion. Well, like... I like the season. You hated episode two. Yeah, so boring. You loved episode five. Yes. Go watch a Michael Bay movie, man.

No, it's not that. I mean, I like the episode... I... I liked episode four. Okay, well, whatever. You like the big stuff smashing together. I've not watched either of these shows. So which one's better?

Probably Shield, because not as many people tweet about it. The Shield. It's amazing. Ryan D. from Loma Linda, California. What are your thoughts on Cory Klober? Is he worth stashing? So I think I had seen initially that there was a chance he might not pitch at all this season,

but he got the cast off his arm, I think. And, you know, that's a good sign. Yeah, I mean, the rest of the email asked if you had an aisle spot available, would you add him in hope to a late season boost? And absolutely 100%. Yes, I would. I would drop someone from my aisle to add. Corey Klover. I really enjoy, like, reading the second part of the email. I really like taking part in the discussion as it's happening naturally.

This one's from John. Subject, Marcus Stroman's dad will kick. Josh Bell's dad around the yard. Yes, Marcus Schroman also has a very, very large adult dad. Yeah, it's crazy. Jeremy and Canada, I'm rostering Cervelli and Astur Dio in a 16-team one catcher league. Would you drop Cervali for Elias right now? Yeah.

Yeah, I think I dropped Cervali in one of my one catcher leagues recently. I think I'd rather have Cerville than Dias. Okay, let's go back to some grade the trades. It's Travis from the Charm City, which is Baltimore, but also a great burger place in South Florida. I've still never had tried it. It's terrific. Cowboy style. Freaking great. Trade it away Chavis, or Travis, as some people say. Chavis, freed, Castillo, and Acuna.

It's a big one here. Chavis, freed, Castillo, and Acuna. From Mike Trout, Javier Baez, and Austin Meadows. 10 team league. Don't you mean Aviar Baez? Wavier Baez, like Juan Soto. Chavis-Fried, Castillo, and Acuna for Trout, Baez, and Meadows.

We're assuming this is Luis Castillo? Yeah. I mean, I guess it could have been like Diego Castillo? Is that? Wellington. F, if it's Wellington. Maybe give her away. Yeah. A plus. I think that is probably a B.

Especially in a 10-team league. Because I think there's a chance. We're really impressed with what Chavis and Freed have done. Chavez and Fryde have done. But the sample size is still very small. And there are still questions about the skill sets for both. So you're getting two confirmed studs in Trouton-Bio. So yeah, you do it.

I'll go B-minus. Okay, from Addison. I give up Manny Machado. and Lucas Gialito. I get Josh Donaldson and Shane Bieber. So Machado and Gialito for Donaldson and Bieber. I think the difference between Bieber and Gialito is bigger than the difference between Machado and Donaldson.

So I will give this one a B plus. I think C minus. I'm with Heath. I'm going to give it a B minus though. Because you guys think Manny Machado is going to be a lot better than he has been? No, no, I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm with you, Heath.

Oh, you're with me? Okay, good. From Darren, dear dog, blog, frog, frog, and log. Four words that rhyme. No, clearly they don't. In a head-to-head categories league, I give up Marcus Stroman and Austin Riley for Zach Wheeler. I think it's a B-minus.

Yeah, this might even depend on the depth of the league, but in a 12-team league, I think it's a slight win, C-plus. Yeah, I like it. From Mark, in a head-to-head dynasty league, give up Yandy Diaz, I get Joe Musgrove. I think that's a B plus. You don't like Yandi.

I think he's fine. B. All right, these are good trades. Good job, people. All right, let's go back to some regular emails. Adam from Toronto. My guy in my league is trying to trade for my Jose Altuve. He keeps offering me Walker Bueller and someone like Will Myers.

I've been trying to get Scherzer, but he won't budge. He also owns Sale. Would it be smart for me to trade trade Altuva for sale? I say yes. So you give up Altuve. You give up Altuve to get Chris Sale is the trade. There were a lot of other names included in this email. But I think that's where it comes down on. Altuvae or sale, who would you rather have?

I still think I'd rather have Altuvei. I'll go with the guy who is not currently injured. Okay, one more quick break on fantasy baseball today. when we come back, I got one more regulators and a few more emails, including a fun one, about advanced stats. I really want to hear what Chris and Heath have to say about it, and we'll be right back.

Here we go. A few more emails to finish the show. This is from Nick. I know you have some mailbags coming up, so here's a thought on advanced pitcher metrics, specifically how they tend to minimize or completely exclude balls in play. FIP and XFIP completely ignore balls in play other than home runs, which aren't even in play.

While the only aspect of balls in play, Sierra incorporates, is ground balls. And while it makes sense to more heavily wait the things more directly in the pitchers control, and Babbeth has shown to be highly volatile year to year, I just feel uneasy about ignoring balls in play, considering they occur in more than two-thirds of all plate appearances. Ex-Woba incorporates exit velocity and launch angle, but this metric appears to be more of a description of what should have happened rather than hold predictive value.

I think a better solution would be to incorporate the pitchers, FX data to analyze balls in play, specifically look at all of the pitches that were put into play against the pitcher and categorize them based on their location, velocity, movement, and spin rate, and then based on all historical pitches thrown in the same category, calculate what the expected Wobba or BABIP should have been, given the characteristics of all balls in play against similar pitches. Then incorporate this into a FIP-like metric that includes pitchers, strikeouts, and walks, and now you've got yourself a more comprehensive pitcher metric that incorporates all outcomes.

I think that there's a lot of interesting thoughts here. The one thing that I would say right off the bat is while batted ball data does matter for pitchers, they control a lot less of the, one of the reasons why, you know, FIPP and XFIP and the, you know, the big thing that Boris McCracken like 20 years ago came away with when he created defensive independent pitching stats was that pitchers just don't have that much control over what happens when the ball is hit. That's not to say they don't have any control, but I think there's been studies. I believe the number is like maybe 20% of, or no, I think it's something like 15% of

the batted ball variance on any given pitch is controlled by the pitcher. So the hitter and what they're doing has much more of an impact on the batted ball. outcome and so including like exit velocity you're saying yeah yeah pitchers just don't have a ton like they definitely do control it to a certain extent but there is a much tighter cluster of exit velocity for pitchers than there is for hitters um which is just to say that there's more skill involved with the the hitting aspect of it so then the other point that I would get to and thank you for letting me filibuster. There isn't a lot to suggest that incorporating batted ball data really improves the performance

of these metrics. You know, there have been studies that compare FIPP, XFIP, Sierra, DRA, which is baseball prospectus's version. And Wobha just doesn't, X Woba or batted ball data just doesn't really improve. prove on them at all, really. In term of predictiveness. Predictiveness, yeah. And so what he's talking about isn't necessarily bad at ball data, but he's talking about

velocity, location, spin rate movement. Those things would be interesting to look at. And someone much smarter than me should probably do that. But my guess is that it would be really hard to control for, you'd also have to account for where the pitch was released, you know, how far from the plate, what the perceived velocity is and the angle. The angle of the spin is just as important as

the spin rate. So there's a lot that goes into it and I'm not sure it's, I'm not sure the, is it the juice is worth the squeeze? Yeah, I think that's Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, cool. I hope that was helpful. That was helpful for me.

I enjoyed that. Good stuff, good thoughts from our emailer and from Chris. Three more grade the trades and then a regulator's. Dear Adavino, Slocum, Casimir, and Sale. Adam Heath, Scott, and Chris. That's right. I took Adam's advice and offered Freeman for J.D. Martinez. And then I threw in Domingo Santana for Nelson Cruz.

So we ended up giving up Freeman and Santana, Domingo, for J.D. Martinez and Nelson Cruz. Grade the trade. B plus and B plus. And then B plus. C. plus. Which one? Freeman and Martinez? Yes.

Interesting. I mean, I had Freeman as like the number 10 pick and Martinez as the number five pick, I think, of my preseason ranking, so they're both great players. Twice as good. And B. Oh, B. You didn't quite finish the letter there. From Sam and Springdale.

Give Ben and Tendee, get Vlad. Five by five categories. C. Yeah. Minus. From Jeremy, grade the trade, head-to-head points league, give up Ryu and Brantley. Get Nola and Soto. B plus.

In a points league? Rew and Brantley for Nola and Soto. C. Hey, by the way, we're here on Friday, and J.D. Martinez has missed like four games in a row. So just in case is on the IL, you know, with a back injury, then you probably shouldn't have traded Freeman for him. But maybe B minus then. Okay.

But I think Domingo Santana for Nelson Cruz is like a huge win. I can't believe that he does not see it. Cruz is also on the aisle. He's coming. He'll be right back after these messages. He'll be right back. He's a 40-year-old guy. As a 40-year-old, you know, they heal very.

I do not at all. Your wrist heals quickly. I injured my ankle in a 5K a year and a half ago, and it's still swollen and discolored. The ankle bone's not connected to the wrist bone. All right, this is from Brian. 10 team head to head points league on Monday at 106.51, like 51 seconds p.m. At 106 p.m. on Monday, I, uh, dropped Jose Martinez to pick up Mitch Morland. I immediately went to move Morland into my starting lineup, but to my surprise, I was on

able to. After a few minutes, I realized that Boston had an early game with the first pitch at 107 p.m. 9 seconds after he made the ad drop. I had no other options at first base, so I immediately emailed the commissioner and asked him if he would move more than into my first base slot. He did not get back to me until the following day and told me it was too late. I then asked him if he would reverse my ad drop so I could start Martinez instead, since he didn't play on Monday. It wasn't playing until later that night on Tuesday. He told me to go pound sand. I hear you guys talk a lot about intent when you're regulating to me it's clear as day what my intent was but maybe i'm wrong for being upset what do you think it seems your intent was to add Mitch morland after the ad drop

deadline it was before the ad drop it was it was before the start sit i know so i know scott would definitely make this trade which one or this move which one morland oh i think he'd let you put morland in your line i would too i would let you put morland i think i would too but i'm not going to say that everyone should i will say this if this is a league where not having a first baseman makes your lineup illegal and causes you to get a zero, the commissioner should make one of these two moves. Or the commissioner should just put in like a minor league first baseman

so you get zero points from that spot, but don't have an illegal lineup. I'm not a fan of that. Well, then that's ridiculous. You're all or nothing. I have the compromise solution. I think you should put more than in his lineup. But if not, you should- Generally, the compromise solution is the worst solution.

Kick Keith out of the league. To quote Tyrion Lannister, everyone's mad about it. So that means it's a good compromise. Whatever. All right, thanks for listening. I'm sure. Don't look at me.

He said a lot of things. What show is that? Over the last eight seasons, what show is that? Okay, we are out of here. Thanks for listening to this bonus show. We'll talk to you on Tuesday on Fantasy Baseball today. Oh.