Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/30: Hot Hitters, Most Traded, Shop Paxton? (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 30, 2019

Beginning the show with a discussion about Edwin Diaz and closers in general (1:40) and why it's hard to rank them. And who stood out yesterday (5:00)? Is Bryce Harper still a Top 10 OF? We debate Betts vs. Trout, discuss Kevin Gausman's terrible start (8:55), Griffin Canning's ownership (10:00) and Wade Miley's strikeouts (11:55) ... Hot hitters (14:52)! Scott Kingery, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Renato Nunez and more. Who do you need to add? Plus we have news and notes (23:00) which includes some prospects talk followed by a look at the Most Traded list (28:40). Can Manny Machado and Paul Goldschmidt still carry your team? ... Some emails about our rankings (37:30) and a debate about the Top 5 hitters in Fantasy, and our thoughts on Shohei Ohtani and Luis Severino. Then we play Start, Sit or Drop (47:25) for some struggling hitters like Victor Robles and Josh Donaldson. Finally, a look at yesterday's pitching performances (54:10). Is Aaron Nola back? Should you think about trading James Paxton? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled, and fast, Alvarez, and toward the corner. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now, here's Adam, Scott Heath, and Chris. Some trade talk on this Thursday morning.

Welcome to the May 30th edition of Fantasy Baseball today. I'm Adam Azer with Scott White Heath Cummings, and we'll give you Bilo, sell high, and buy high. And today we're going to look at the most traded list. And I believe Posey Ramirez is number one of that list. If he's not number one, he's up there. But we'll talk about him. We'll talk about Austin Riley.

And in fact, yesterday I said that the previous night's games, Tuesday nights games, were boring. Last night, anything but so much to talk about. As we welcome Scott Whiteback. Hey, Scott, what's up, man? Adam. How's it going? It's going pretty well.

Remember everybody who are on video if you want to watch us. Scott's in his house with his cool little background. So am I. You want to know it, though. I've got a nifty background now. Yeah, I don't even good. I'm actually in a hallway, Adam. I don't know what you mean by my house.

This is not what my house looks like. You've a long hallway in your house. I haven't got the same similar setup. Heats in the Fort Lauderdale office. What's up, Heath? Yeah, I have that hallway in my house as well. It's weird how we all had the same designer. Yeah, you're all pretty sharp.

All right, so let's talk about yesterday's games because there was a lot. First, this email of the day is from Zach H from Houston, Texas. Dear Sandler, Hemsworth, Ledger, and Wanger, Scott Wenger. I know who three of those people are. I don't know what connects them.

They're Adam, Heath, Chris, and Scott. Or Adam, Chris, Heath, and Scott. Oh, okay. Do you know? Who don't you know? Scott Wenger? Wenger? He was Steve in Full House and the voice of Aladdin.

And that is a strange reference. I'm pretty sure he went to my high school. Yeah, he did. Almost. Is he an Adam? So he's the Adam? No, he's the Scott. He's the Scott.

It's weird that he's the Scott, but it kind of looks like he could be your big brother. Yeah, yeah, definitely. I'm going to confirm that he went to my high school. You know I do this a lot. Okay, here's the email. from Zach. Last night of my fantasy league, Edwin Diaz was rage dropped

based on his blown save and awful performance against the Dodgers. I think this was a fluke performance and he's still really good, but I don't know who I should drop for him. Should I drop Fried Montas? Yeah, right? Freed, Montas, Gialito, Keikl, or Kimbril for him? My choice would be Keikle.

Yeah, I think Keikl's probably the right answer. That's what I said. But I don't even care about that part. I just think it's hilarious that somebody rage dropped Edward T. Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me? That's terrible. Yeah, this is the first time he allowed more than two runs in a game since last May, I think.

The first time more than one this season, you know, he had worked. This was his fourth time pitching in five days and eighth time pitching in 12 days. So, you know, this stuff happens sometimes. I don't think there's anything to be concerned about. No, he's not been what he was last year, but we didn't really expect. expect him to. Well, where does he rank? You might wonder. He's 20 among relief pitchers, R.P.

eligible players. 20th in points, 23 in Roto. If you remove the starting pitchers who are relief pitcher eligible, Diaz is 13th in points and 17th in Roto. In Roto, there are some non-closers like Ryan Presley.

Yes, Presley and the guy on the Red Sox. Is it Workman, maybe? Waldman. Yes. Walden, who has six wins. I know so many baseball things. Top 12, he is not right now. I bet he was yesterday, though, Edwin Diaz. There's so much elasticity in the, you know, among the relievers who are actually good

and consistently getting saved chances. His ratios are still, you know, they're elite, they're elite. The only, he's second in my closer ranking behind Kirby Yates, who, you know, is debatable he deserves to be first. You can really debate probably 10 guys for the top spot in the relief pitcher rankings. My top relief pitcher has not changed since the start of the year. It was who? Ozuna? Yeah.

That's such a strange call. I think he's number one or number two right now, right? He's not number one, Heath. He's number two. He's number two. He's number two. So he's been kind of shaky recently himself. Okay, so that was our Edwin Diaz email. What stood out to you guys yesterday?

Heath kicked off. Who's a Wednesday standout? You know, it was weird because I did a pretty big rankings update yesterday, and this happens often, and it's just happenstance. I don't have any control over anything, but guys that I move up are just absolutely terrible right after I move them up, and guys that I move down have monster performances. And there were a couple of those in Kevin Gosman and Bryce Harper. So you move Gosman up? Move Gosman up to just borderline top 60 pitcher. I had been mildly impressed with what he had done lately,

and he delivered the worst performance of his career. And I dropped Harper out of my top 10 outfielers, and he remembered how to hit again. Wow. It's two good games in a row, I guess, for Harper, but still a ton of strikeouts. Dropped them out of your top 10. Let's start on Harper. You dropped them out of your top 10 outfielers, like for who? Do you want me to just like, you know that, let's go for points.

Okay. So, Mookiee Betts, Mike Trout, Christian Yellich, Cody Bellinger, J.D. Martinez. There's five where you can't even consider, Harper. You still have bets ahead of Trout? Yes. He scored like 10 less points than Trout this year. Yeah, Mike Trout was on the IL, or he was injured. Did he go on the IL or did he just missed some time?

Then Blackman, Acuna, Brantley, Hoskins, and Chris Bryant. Okay. Brantley ahead of Harper. Yeah, that one. I had a feeling that was going to be. I had a feeling Brantley was going to be on that list. I mean, he has been fantastic so far this year and always better in the points format. Yeah, but so is Harper.

Yeah. Harper didn't use to strike out 30% of the time. That's true. Yeah. And that's, you know, after a jump in strikeout rate last year, too. So he has Harper 13th. have Harper 13th. I'm not remorseful because he had

a couple good games. I mean, first of all, 13th is still pretty high. I hope he should have some good games every now and then. But yeah, I'm still I'm still thinking Harper's not going to live up to

even second round expectations this year. Would you take, Scott, would you take Harper or Brantley? I had Brantley 11th in points leagues. And I believe I believe I have Brantley ahead of him in the Roto too. Oh, wow. Okay. Interesting.

Keith, you got it like, come on. You got to put Mike Trout ahead of Buckey Betts. I'm sorry, you have to. I don't know why I do. Because Mike Trout has... They've been virtually the same player so far in Fantasy this year. Okay, Trout did not have an IL stint. He's played 51 games.

Betts has played 55 games. Mike Trout has... And his... In fairness... He's 449. What's that? He's got a 449 OBP, and he's not even playing that well. Hayes not even playing that well is the reason for moving him ahead of Mookiee Betz?

Yes, he's been better than Mookie Betts in four fewer games, and he's not even playing that well. And I guess Betts isn't really either, you know, what we can get from bets. I think they're both playing very well. They're both like top 10 hitters. Well, I think Adam's saying there's, there's, it's clear there's regression coming for Trout when in Betts case, you know, it's a good kind of regression. And in the Bet's case, there's not. I mean, I think that both of them are going to be a lot better or certainly better.

But I think Trout is going to be like a lot, a lot better because I just, I just can't see an argument. The only thing is played appearances. That's it. If you think Betts is going to get, be a much better lineup and get more played appearances. But I just, okay. All right, all right. So your standouts, your other standout was Kevin Gosman.

He is 68 percent own. He gave up eight runs in one inning. And I saw this, I was just like, God, this is just so Kevin Gosman, an exaggerated version, but he can just never be consistent, I feel. How, you know, 68% Owen, how do you guys feel about that for Gosman? I hope people didn't start him for a one-start week. I don't think he's the kind of pitcher, you know, unless it's a great matchup that you'd ever turn to for that. But, you know, this doesn't erase the fact that he was coming off three quality starts.

I think he can still be useful, but he's not trustworthy. And the Braves have been connected to Dallas Keiko recently. I think they're less likely to get him than Kimball. But I think there's a good chance they get one because they're one of the few teams linked to both. And if they do get Keikle, I imagine Gosman would be the one on the thinnest ice, at least until maybe the inning start to catch up for Max Freed. Okay. All right. So, Gosman, 68% owned.

Griffin Canning, 67% owned. He's one of my standouts from yesterday. Who would you guys rather own at this point? Gosman or Canning? Canning. Yeah, I'd probably say Canning. Yeah. Canning, yeah.

I'd pick him up anywhere that he were available. Fair? I wouldn't go that far, but. Well, I can't know, really. I can't imagine why he would still be available. I mean, coming off three good starts, with one of the top swinging strike grades in baseball. This was actually his worst swinging strike game,

and yet it was one of his best games in terms of results. He was pitching from behind a lot of the time and still ended up having a quality start winner and run aloud. So, I mean, he looks like the real deal, as they say. I think if someone was making an argument about him, it would be looking at his peripherals. they're all basically north of four. The Sierra, I think, is just under at 3.93.

And he hasn't exactly, I mean, he's averaging about five innings per start. So the peripherals say he's a 4ERA pitcher that's not really pitching deep into games. Yeah, well, Kannie's not going to pitch deep into games. They're just, I think six innings is what you should hope. Like hope for seven, I guess. But it's kind of like paddock, but, you know, not as good. He's not going to pitch deep into games. They're just not going to let him go that deep in the games.

but still a guy who can give you six good innings. It's hard to find these days. Yeah, I just don't think we know that he's that guy yet. He's done it twice. Yeah, he's had three good starts in a row, though. Three starts worth putting in your lineup. So other standout, Scott, anyone else you want to talk about? Gosh, I mean, Wade Miley with two good strikeouts in a row.

Kyle Hendricks has been great. Austin Riley, Holbert, again. I mean, there's so many ways we can go with this. It was a fun day in baseball, a lot of good storylines. What you got? Yeah, Miley's, Miley's a good one to point out His last five starts

Have been Much different than the ones preceding it He has really up the whiffs And I don't I haven't really read anything Regarding a change or There's not really a clear thread from start to start You know

Showing a different pitch selection or anything And yet he is getting more whiffs And at Astros are a team known For getting more whiffs out of their pitchers So I wonder if something's up there But it's too early to say Yeah You know there were a couple of interesting things

With bench hitters who you know might have a path to playing time now Both of them had good games Scott Kingery and Philadelphia And Dominic Smith for the Mets Obviously needs aren't as great You know among hitters and fantasy people don't have as much need at those positions as they do at pitcher. But they're both interesting.

I mean, they're both former prospects. King are getting to play center field. The Mets tried Dominic Smith and left field, which is something they hadn't done yet this year. But obviously they have a need for hitting. And they both have great numbers so far in limited appearances. A lot of it is Babbitt driven so far. But there are enough skills there to at least keep an eye on those too.

Well, I don't think Kingery is a bench player anymore, right? I mean, he's going to play regularly with Oduble out. Well, that's what I'm saying. They have been bench players, and now there's a path to playing. Oh, okay, okay. I'm sorry, I misinterpreted. So what's the pet... I think Kingery is one of the most under-owned hitters in fantasy right now.

He's 33% owned. I have a section here called Hot Hitters, and we'll just go through them all and tell me who's under-owned. Most of these guys are owned fewer than 40% of leagues. But just to go back to Dominic Smith, Canoe and McNeil might not be out that long when they're back. Does that mean Dominic Smith goes back to being a bench player? Not necessarily.

I mean, Jeff McNeil can play anywhere, just about, except shortstop. And Robinson Canoe, I mean, that's, we're talking about left field. That's not going to impact whether or not Robinson Canoe plays. Sure. Okay. I mean, obviously, it's not a given that Dominic Smote is now the Mets starting left fielder, but they've opened that door to him playing, and every time they've played him,

he's done good things this year. So it's possible he could find himself in that role. All right, good stuff. We need more guys who are under-owned. So let's take a look at the hot hitters, and then we'll talk about the world's most dangerous in-home massage that broke Carlos Correa's ribs. So that's coming up in a little bit with a lot of news and notes.

Okay, first guy is Kyle Schwaber. Kyle Schwaber in his last 15 games, he's only batting 228, but he has six home runs. and weird thing about Swarber is he's got a 973 OPS against lefties this year. So I'm going to give you guys a name, and I just want you to give me a quick analysis. How owned should he be? Would you pick him up? That kind of is there, big potential, whatever it is.

Let's start. Kyle Schwerber, go ahead, Heath. 45% owned? Like, he's still been mostly bad this season. It is encouraging that he's doing some things against lefties and may play more against them. But I am not yet convinced that he's going to be a, he's certainly not a must start and I'm not even sure he's got my stone yet. Scott, Lordus Gurriel Jr., since being called up, you know, for the second time this season was a second stint.

Gouriel is crushing it. In six games, he has four homers, three doubles, one walk and four strikeouts for the Blue Jays. What are your thoughts on Lordus Gorell Jr., 35% owned? Yeah, I mean, it probably should be a little higher than that. But I don't think there's an especially high ceiling. here. There's a little bit of pop. There's some contact ability. There's very little on base ability.

And I'm trying to think of a good comp for him. But, you know, considering you've got guys like Marcus Simeon and Danesby Swanson, close to falling outside my top 20 at shortstop, you know, it's just a deep position. And I don't think Lordus Gurriel makes the cut except me. maybe in deeper, like 15-team rotisserie leagues. But he is actually second-base-eligible. Well, that helps a little, but even so, I'm just not sure. Like, I'd rather have Cabin Biggio,

and he's a guy outside my top 20 at second base. All right, I'll say if you're in a real deep league, Gurriel is now second-based shortstop, outfield-eligible, and middle-infield eligible. He's two games away from being first-base eligible, which would also give him corner infield. eligibility, so he could have a bunch of eligibility. All right, next up, Heath, we'll go to you.

Renato Nunez for the Orioles. He had a 632 OPS before his last 10 games, and in those 10 games, he has a 361 batting average and six home runs in three doubles. 37% own Renato Nunez. 37% sounds about right. This has been a nice hot streak, but I haven't seen enough yet to make me believe

that this is close to sustainable. Okay, then we have Scott Kingery, who we can skip for now, as we just talked about him. Heath, I'll go back to you for Howie Kendrick. 31% owned, nine hits in his last four games. He did start, he usually plays only against lefties, but yesterday we saw him.

I mean, this goes back to what Scott was saying. Bench players may be playing more. He started at second base against the righty, and that was with Brian Dozier on the bench. Quite frankly, Kendrick's been so much better than Dozier. He's 31% own batting 328 with nine home runs. When he hits his 10th, it'll be his most in six seasons. Heath on Howie Kendrick.

Yeah, if you told me that Brian Dozier just recognized that he's terrible at baseball now and retired, then I would say that he should probably be like 60, 65% owned. But I don't expect that that's going to happen. And I think the National is probably going to run him out there several more times. So I don't expect that Kendrick will have the playing time to deserve much more ownership than this. Scott, Oscar Mercado is 37% owned. He has two steals. They both came in one game a couple of nights ago.

but he's batting now 333. He's actually got a pretty good slash line. And only eight strikeouts in eight games. It's not terrible, right, for a rookie? What do you think about Mercado at 37%. Yeah, I don't know that it needs to be much higher than that. Obviously, there's interest in every Rotisserie League where you're talking about five outfielder spots to fill

and a scarcity of stolen bases. But even if you own him in that league, you're probably not starting him, since he hasn't delivered on much of that stolen base promise yet. But it's easy enough to envision him becoming a regular for Cleveland, and he does have some bad on ball skills. The strikeout rate was, you know, we're talking eight games, so it's hard to assess much there yet.

Yeah, I mean, maybe like 45% on is where I'd go with him. Okay, Mercado, by the way, is bad at second and four straight games for the Indians, so maybe he can help you out with some runs. He has 12 runs in eight games. That's pretty good. I think he's played 12 games, hasn't he? 12 games. Okay, that makes more sense.

Okay, so eight strikeouts and 12 games sounds a lot better. His strikeout rate is just 17%. It's actually very good. That's why I paused when I saw that I wrote eight games. Are we at the end of the list, or can I throw in one more that I think is like very important? Yeah, go. Malick Smith. Two nights ago, he had four stolen.

bases hitting ninth. The next day he led off three hits. Next day he leads off three hits. He is on fire right now. He's still just 46% own and he's a guy that was essentially universally drafted at the beginning of the year. I think there's a very good chance in another month we're looking at a 90% own Malick Smith. Yeah, I just wonder about the batting order. I hope he stays there. D. Gordon is on the mend. He doesn't have a super serious wrist injury, but he's got a chance to claim that number one spot. I mean, Malick Smith has served an IL stint this year, granted, it only cost of the two games of Japan. But he's also spent a ton of times in the minors.

He's on pace for more than 40 steals in spite of that. So I don't know why he's so big. Like all rotisserie leagues he needs to be owned, probably all head-to-head categories leagues he needs to be owned. Jackie Bradley, Carson, Kelly, Brandon Dixon are the last three guys on the list. Jackie Bradley has a 10-51, well, he had a 10-51 OPS in nine games before homering last night. He's still having a dreadful year. But Bradley's hot. Carson Kelly doesn't play that much, but can give you just like some decent numbers,

it seems, at catcher. And Brandon Dixon has started more. Yeah, he needs to play more. His numbers are looking impressive for a catcher. Hey, maybe it'll happen. All right, so Kingery, it seems like Kingery is probably our favorite that I said, other than Malick Smith maybe. I don't know that there's a...

I'm pretty interested in Mercado if he's going to bat second. Yeah, I like Mercado more than Kingery personally. Okay. The batted ball profile for Kingery... You're mostly just investing an upside at this point because it's production to date. I mean, he's got a... I think a bad bit verging on 500.

So there's, you know, so few of bats, it's hard to make anything of it, really. But the batted ball profile, you know, a lot of strikeouts, not many walks. I have doubts about Kingery. I'm interested in seeing him play because we know there's upside there, but I have doubts about him.

Mercado, I think, has a better chance of making an impact. And it is time to take a break here on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, Carlos Correa's weird injury. Update on Jose Altuve, Chris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Mike Trout. We will be right back on fantasy baseball today. All right, Carlos Correa. Get a new masseuse out four to six weeks with a broken rib. very weird and honestly

I have a roster crunch in the podcast league and I don't know that I can justify keeping Carlos Correa is that crazy or what but that is shortstop for you I can drop Jeff McNeil I guess

yeah I think you can drop Jeff McNeil over Carlos Correa Jeff McNeil is pretty underrated in a points league he really is but I gave yeah but Carlos Carraya was like top where did I put him in

rank you like my top 30 top 40 overall I know but he's like so prior to his injury like he's basically been a borderline number one shortstop this year exactly it's yeah but it's it's it's just because shortstop is so deep like you start him at your utility and you know he's he's obviously has a much better track record than some of the guys ahead of him it's more believable or more bankable I guess than what he was doing can we try to guess the shortstop who has scored exactly the same number of fantasy points as Carlos Correa this year? Well, I'll let Scott do it because I'm looking at it right now.

Is that a fun game? It is a fun game. You like him quite a bit, Scott. Do I? But not in a fantasy perspective. Is it Dansby Swanson? It is. Danzby Swanson. Sorry I made that so easy.

Nice clue. Nice clue, Adam. Let me fire through the notes here. Chris Bryant returned. Tim Anderson returned. He got Beaned, but he's okay. Jose Altuve is out indefinitely. Joey Gallo sat with a sore wrist. Good chance he plays today. If they play today, I'm not sure.

Either today or tomorrow. Mike Trout sat with a sore foot. That's why Boogie Betts is ahead of him. Mike Trout's hurt right now. Yeah, okay. Yet still, Betts has a bit as good. Pedro Strope could be back this weekend. Jeremy Helixen has been shut down from throwing.

Mitch Morland's on the IL with a lower back strain. J.P. Crawford's on the aisle with a sprained ankle. Jordan Liles was able to play catch and might be able to avoid an I. Stint. Joey Votto expected to return tomorrow. It's kind of interesting. Derek Dietrich. Of course, after I said, he's not going to play against lefties. He started against a lefty yesterday at first base, but that was with Joey Votto out. But Dietrich went two for four. Is Derek Dietrich better than Joey Votto now? Probably. Probably. I'm not going to say that. I'm so doubt about that. He's more

startable than Joey Votto right now. De Nelsso and Lament started a rehab assignment today. That's kind of interesting. Deeper leagues. Coming back from Tommy John. Chris Davis started hitting. Miami and Cleveland. They triple. They both tripled yesterday. They ended the longest season opening triples of droughts in baseball history. Justin Turner's little beat up might get a day off. Dee Gordon's going to begin baseball activities soon.

All right. So Nick Povetta, I added him two days ago. I dropped him yesterday. Nick Povetta, and I'll tell you why. But he's going to start at the Dodgers on Sunday, and he's not guaranteed anything after that. So I dropped him. Remember I said I picked him up because I'd need a ton of upside. I dropped Nick Povetta for Kyle Tucker, who I think has even more upside. And Scott thinks Kyle Tucker is going to be back soon, up soon. Speak, Adam? Yeah. So. I mean, I've been thinking that for a month, so what do I know? But I actually think Carlos Correa going down. You mentioned Jose Out Tuve. There's not a timetable for his return. George Springer is out for. more than a month. The Astros just lost three of their four bats or their big bats. I guess they have five now with Brantley, but they lost a lot from their lineup. So the argument that, well, they don't really need to call Tucker or Jordan Alvarez because their offense is performing

so well. That's going out the window here. And right now, their lineup currently consists of Tyler White, who's deserved to be out for a while now. It consists of Derek Fisher, who knows what they're going to get from him. Josh Redick is fine, but not great. And then there's somebody who, somebody else, they have a few different options, but none of them good to play second base shortstop. So they have four spots that they could stand to upgrade

in their lineup right now. Kyle Tucker has actually been, since I think it's April 24th, he heated up. And since then he's been more productive than even Jordan Alvarez, whose season-long numbers are just ridiculous. Tucker's already on the 40-man roster. Alvarez's natural position is first base.

So, you know, they move Bregman to shortstop to fill in for Correa. They move Gouriel to third base, as they did yesterday. Instead of Tyler White, they could have Jordan Alvarez in the lineup now. I just think there's a clear path for both of these guys, or at least one of them, to enter the lineup, you know, once the Astros realize they are hurting for offense, they could stand to upgrade. Yeah, and I think it's pretty interesting to think about

if they're a tough matchup right now, or if you can start kind of fringy pitchers against them. I'm thinking that you probably can. Jose Martinez is not looking good right now. He has started one of the last five games for St. Louis after starting 29 of the previous 30 games. I'd still like to. I know he's the best hitter in that group,

you know, the right field group, but obviously not the best fielder. And good news, everybody. Aaron Sanchez is going to be able to start on Sunday, it seems, bad news at Colorado. Okay, hey, let's take a look at the most. The most traded list on CBSSports.com. We'll talk some trade right now.

I haven't made as many trades as I'd like to make. Trades are fun. Most fun part of fantasy baseball. Jose Ramirez is number one on the most traded list. By far. Max Scherzer 2, Bryce Harper 3, Austin, Riley, and Jacob de Grom tied for fourth in terms of most trades. So Jose Ramirez, he has two good games in a row, I think. not great

but yeah I don't know all right go ahead and react to that top five Jose Ramirez Scher Harper Austin Riley Jacob de Grom well I think it's interesting

like the entire list of names you've shown here are basically like a who's who of by low opportunities except for Austin Riley who is clearly being sold high

I would suppose yeah I imagine a lot of the people who picked up Austin Riley don't actually need him and obviously he's a trendy name right now. Top prospect who's called up and who's gotten called up in seven home runs in 14 games. I know we've been shopping him in the podcast for the People League at him

that we have yet to pull the trigger on any of the offers to come our way. I mean, there's definite downsides to Riley. He's struck out in a third of his plate appearances. If that continues, you know, it's really going to hurt his batting average at the same time, he has like Pete Alonzo level power and that kind of power is what can overcome

a high strikeout rate. Double, dual eligible third base in the outfields. I can understand being both on the buying and the selling end of Riley. Okay, so I'm glad you mentioned Peter Alonzo's. I got an interesting

Alonzo stat. Alonzo hit two run homers last night. He is the number five first basement of points, number four in Roto. Got off to an amazing start. And as we compare Alonzo to Austin Riley, April 12th, April 12th, okay, pretty early in the season. Since then, Pete Alonzo was batting 2.30 with 13 home runs, 12 walks, 48 strikeouts. I mean, he's been really good, but he's the number 15 first basement and points and number 14 in Roto since that time, since April 12th, pretty early in the season.

So I think exactly what you said, the strikeouts caught up to Alonzo, the batting average has plummeted, and he's batting 2.30 in that stretch. So Riley has even worse play discipline than Alonzo, right? So far. Yes. So far, yeah. So it's not like Alonzo's been useless, but he hasn't been a stud, believe it or not, since April 12th. He hasn't, but, I mean, he also hasn't been, you're talking about a top 14 first baseman, what's obviously the deepest position in fantasy. See, that's still, I would still call that someone you're starting in every 12-team league.

You know, just... Yeah. You're saying since that time, he's the top 14th first baseman, not including the hot stretch at the start of the year. No, including the hot stretch, he's top five. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah. Right, oh, totally worth starting. And Austin Riley's probably going to be worth starting.

I mean, you know, but sell high. It's less certain with him. I mean, Alonzo's strikeout rate is bad, but it's not, it's not like worst in baseball type bad like Riley's is so far. We're talking 14 games for Riley, so it's hard to make too much of it. But Riley struck out a lot more in the minors than Alonzo did as well, right? Well, this year in the minors, Riley didn't strike out much at all. But yeah, over his minor league career, there have been a lot of strikeout. All right, so you said Heath that that top five, Ramirez, Scherzer, Harper, Riley, DeGrom,

Four of them, not Riley, are bylaws. So the way you just talked about Bryce Harper, I'm not really sure I agree that he's a by-low. I mean, look, there's always the obvious, like, hey, I'm going to trade Michael Conforto, who's hot right now for Bryce Harper, you know, okay. But if he's outside the top 10 outfielders, he might not be that easy to get.

No, I don't think he's a, like, bi-low in the sense of, you're buying, expecting him to turn, like, Scherzer, I'm buying, expecting him to be the best pitcher in baseball. So I can buy high and buy low at the same time. With Harper and Jose Ramirez, you've got to actually buy very, very low. Okay, if to lower your expectations, certainly. Which got much harder the last two days with Harper. And maybe with Ramirez. So, Cindergarde is number six.

Cindergarde 6, Machado 7, Goldschmidt, Andrew Benintendi and Joey Votto. Yeah, those are all by lows and maybe even clearer by lows than Harper. Are you sure about Machado? No, I'm not sure he's good. And Scott, I know you have some reservations. You're not sure he's good? You're not sure Machado is good.

I'm not sure he's a starting shortstop and a points league. Well, that's a bold take. That is a bold take. He really has been one year in his career. career outside of Camden Yards. It's true. I mean, I understand what you're saying. At the same time,

a really good strikeout rate. He's had horrible bad bit luck, it looks like, still on pace for 26 home runs, which I understand in today's environment. Maybe it doesn't mean what it did. But my point is he's just not that far off. Well, he's a... From beating up to our expectation.

He has a 299 babbip. His career is 301. His 5 is only 299? And he's struck out more than he has at any point in his career. Okay. Well, that's part of it. But at the same time, it is a good strikeout rate. Yeah, I'm surprised.

I'm surprised as bad if it is that high. I guess maybe being, his home run pace being off is also affecting the batting average somewhat. Well, I still don't think it would take much for him to get back on track. Could you see Machado or Goldschmidt or Benintendi or Vado carrying your team? for the next like two months. I see all of them doing that. You know, I'm actually the most concerned, I think, about Ben Intendi because he hit his sixth home run yesterday,

and that's with a much higher fly ball rate than ever before. Theoretically, he should be showing more power. His strikeout rate is way up this year. It's 23%. Like, it's certainly higher than Machado's, but it's not that much different. Compared to earlier in his career? It was 16 and 17 just like Machadoes.

Yeah. And now it's 23. That's a big jump. That's a big jump. I mean, Ben and Tendi just, you know, he did have one streak last year where he was, like, great. But other than that, he's just kind of a steady-eddy 17-homeward 20 steel guy. Probably, you know, I saw people buy, I saw someone buy Ben and Tendi low in one of my leagues. And yeah, he's probably got some regression coming.

He's good. But I don't know that he's like. capable of going on a huge tear for an extended period of time. He's just not that good of a hitter. I'm sorry to say it. He's a 20 homer guy at best. You know, like you want to, the Goldschmidt's a 35 homer guy maybe. Votto could be a 12 homer guy, you know, in a good year.

The only guy I'm confident could carry your team over the next month is Goldschmidt. Yeah, that was a joke about my time. Yeah, I mean, it's, but they all could. Like the only one I've given any thought to that. benching in the leagues where I own them is Botto. The others, you know, they haven't underachieved enough for me to say,

okay, I'm going to risk missing out on the Monster Week to start, you know, Dan's B. Swanson instead, whatever. All right, why don't we save the, since we did some good trade talk there, unless you guys are just dying to give me a buy, low, or sell high, we can save it for

tomorrow. That sounds great. All right, we'll save for tomorrow. Well, how many games do we have on the schedule? day. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. That's good. That means more time for for free period tomorrow. So I got an email here that I think is really cool. Pretty sharp. One of our loyal listeners, Mike in New York, or Nueva, York, as he likes to say.

You know, he kind of attacked us a little bit. I understand guys like Bellinger and Yellich have been great, but I don't agree with moving them ahead of guys who've been better for way longer like Betts and Aeronado. This is actually mostly addressed to Scott. The trade charts have bets behind both of these one-hit wonders. Ooh, Mike, I'm not sure I can support you on Yewitch being a one-hit one-h. Maybe this is... On the MVP last year.

Maybe this is who Bellinger and Yelich are now, but Betts has been the best player in fantasy, two out of three years, and hasn't hit that level yet this year, but certainly hasn't been bad. Aronado's just doing what he always does. I'm not sure I'd put them above J.D. Martinez, Scherzer, or Verlander, either, them being Bellinger and Yelich. Can't help but remember when Harper was number one overtrout a few years back,

or when Trey Turner was overrated as a first rounder in points traps a few years back. Can we be a bit less reactive? I love reacting to change and recognizing breakouts, but putting guys on a hot streak over the best players in fantasy still seems both premature and like a mistake to me. Love you, Mike. Yeah, I mean, it doesn't look like a hot streak at this point. It looks like a skill change.

And a big part of it is that of the three, Beths, Yelich, and Bellinger, I would say that seems like the the least the lowest steel source of the three uh

bellinger has been you know bellinger and yellow both have been running a lot and have been successful enough that I think it's going to continue both of them a bellinger especially

like he's cut his strikeout rate in half like a third of the way into the season it's hard to dispute that anymore uh yeah it's It's interesting because more often I think we're accused of being too patient and not making these changes fast enough. I could understand why, you know, as a Bellinger owner, you might be willing to trade him for bets. I personally would not.

So, you know, obviously my own personal feelings are reflected in my rankings. And if you feel differently, I'm not saying you're wrong. I get it. But I disagree. Heath, you want to jump in there? I still have bets over both these guys. So I just, good email, Mike. Well, the one thing I don't agree with you on, Scott, is that Bell, is, I don't think that Betts, if he steals fewer bases than Bellinger, I think it's going to be pretty negligible.

Like, they both, Betts has six and Bellinger as seven. And I just feel like. You're probably right. You're probably right. But who's the clearer power source? Definitely, Bellinger. Yeah, Bellinger. I think if he's closed the gap and steals to any degree and he's, you know, obviously.

closed the gap in batting average with a much lower strikeout rate than ever before. It's, you know, weigh the two, who has the biggest advantage, Bellinger with the power. Yeah, I would take, but I would take bets to hit for a better average than Bellinger rest of season. Like, starting right now? Uh, maybe if I, maybe if I was put, that's a close call. That's a close call. They both have more walks than strikeouts. I think the strikeout rate is similar. but if there is a difference, it would probably be, if there's a difference,

if Betts is able to pass Bellinger and he has like, you know, he's 80 points behind him right now. No, but I don't think he's not passing. I just think from this point forward. Yeah, from this point forward. Yeah, he's not going to pass. Maybe, but it'd probably be negligible looking at the bat at ball profiles.

And I'm not really... Maybe that would be a little better. I'm not really sure I see a reason to doubt Christian Yellich anymore. Like, I think he's... I think he's the number two player in fantasy. fire drafting today, especially in a roto league. So you put him ahead of Bellinger even? Yelich, yeah.

I got Yelich ahead of Bealager. Yeah, because I do think Yelich will have more steals. I mean, Bellinger, there's still the home run to flyball issue with Yelich, which we know he's going to have a good home run to fly ball rate. But right now it's like 40%, which is just, it's 36.8%. Yeah, but he's on pace for like 60 homerlyboles this year. He's on base for like 60 home runs or whatever. So that's not going to happen.

But these guys just does. I mean, obviously I have him third. So what would wife and bother making this argument? Yeah. All right. So I don't know. Maybe it's just, do you buy the batting average with Cody Bellinger? And it's, do you buy that he's like a 300 hitter?

You know? If you do, then he's a top five player. I think he's tracking out 13.3% of the time. I mean, that, I don't know what kind of. a frame of reference the audience has for that, but that's an incredible strikeout, right? He's making so much contact. Question. If that continues, yeah, if that continues, he's probably going to be the best hitter in fantasy.

That's the question. His batting average is actually higher than his bathe. Bellinger. Right, but the thing is, like, can he keep, you know, okay, so basically 146 strikeouts and 132 games is a rookie, 151 strikeouts and 162 last year, 31 strikeouts of 54 games. We saw it with John Carlos Danton. Like, you seem to be really buying into the strikeout rate. I don't know that I am yet.

I would probably set the over-under at 18% for the rest of the year. And he hit 267 and 260 in his first two seasons. So he's going to steal some bases. He's going to probably lead first baseman or come close to it. He's going to hit a ton of home runs, obviously. Is he a 260 hitter? I guess not. He's obviously made improvements, and he's hitting lefties this year.

So I don't really agree with my. Mike's email, to be quite honest. Mike's always got a lot of good emails. I don't really think that Scott's overreacting, especially with him. I thought it was a very good email, Mike. Wasn't a bad email. All right, here we go. Next email is from branded in the Tri-Cities in Washington.

I don't know where that is. Can you weigh in on Shohei Otani? Is he worth owning? He is 91% owned, 51% started, and pretty bad so far, but hitting the cover off the ball. What do you think about Otani? Yeah, I mean... There's too much potential here to, I think, with his few of bats as he has, to really worry about anything that's happened in those at bats at this point.

And there's been enough reason to be encouraged that I'm not really changing my stance on. I think there's five category potential. I think he's going to play close to every day. And I'm happy to keep starting him. All right. This is from Garrett. What do you guys think about Luis Severino? What is the probability of Severino coming back and being the ace that he was down the

fantasy home stretch. 22%. Well, it's pretty low. It's an and. You have to put an and in there. You have to get the intersection of the two. It's not an or.

Oh, of coming back and being... What am I talking about? I don't even know what I'm talking about. I have no idea what you're talking about. Those logic exercise, remember where it's the union and the intersection and, like, if it's an and you're talking about an intersection in that, you know. I just gave the probability.

I'm doing like eighth grade math or something. What's the probability, Scott? 22% of Severino being an ace. Yeah. Well, if it's, will he come back, then I'd put the chances over 50%. But when he has to come back and be an ace, it's probably about where he passed it. Okay. Let's see.

Hey, real quick from Scott. Would you drop Willie Calhoun for Scott Kingery? I wouldn't. I would. Okay. And thank you guys. And Will from Virginia, haven't heard much about Sean Mania,

who's making some progress, but where would his peak ranking be in 2019, top 50, top 30, question mark, on Sean Mania, who's only 10% owned, but is, you know, making progress. Yeah, part of the problem is he wasn't must own before getting hurt.

I think there's probably some untapped potential there. And if I had a need at starting pitcher, pick him up and see where it goes, but I wouldn't be ranking him inside my top 60 even on the day he came off the IL. To answer the question, I think his Pete starting pitcher ranking if he comes back and performs well is probably somewhere in the top 40. We're going to take a quick break on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, we'll play start, sit or drop.

We'll look at Aaron Nola and Kyle Hendrix and Chris Paddock and James Paxton and Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Madison Bumgarner, John Means, Pablo Lopez, all these guys that we have not talked about yet. Coming up, we'll recap pretty much everything you need to know from Wednesday. We'll be right back. Start, sit or drop for the following players. Victor Robles, 39th best outfielder in points, 33rd in Roto, 21.4% hard contact rate.

Yikes, and so many strikeouts for Robles. Start, sit, or drop? Start and roto sit in points. Sounds good to me. Yeah, I'd be more concerned about the batt and ball profile if he wasn't one of the few genuine steel sources out there. How about this, start and roto dropping points, Victor Robles? I'm not there yet.

I think you can make the case. It's hard to roster bench hitters in a points league I've found. Josh Donaldson. Josh Donaldson is the number 21 third basement in Points League's number 26 in Roto. He is pretty cold. He's slugging 402 in May with two home runs and five

doubles. Start, sitter, drop Josh Donaldson. Drop? It's probably like when you're dealing with a corner infield spot in a Roto league, I can't imagine too many of his owners in that format could make a case for sitting him.

Points League, I mean, third base is a lot. deep position. I'd be more likely to stash him away than Robles. You know, he's obviously still getting on base a lot as an elite track record. And a 53.8% hard contact rate for Donaldson.

That's twice as much, more than twice as much as Robles. You said drop, Donaldson, Heath? He's been awful. He hasn't been awful. He's based on a 380 clip. He's on base to be a five-war player this year. He just needs the power.

He's been good defensively, I guess. He's been pretty bad in fantasy. If you're outside of the top 20 at your position and you have not had a significant injury, you are mostly bad. I can't really argue with that. That's kind of the argument I would make. But has he been unlucky because he's hitting the ball so hard

and there's not much power there for Donaldson? It's possible he's been a little bit unlucky. But like Scott said, it's hard. I'm not dropping him in a league with a corner infielder. I agree with Scott there. All right, next up. Robbie Ray. Roby Ray, terrible start at Colorado, not surprising.

One quality start all season for Robbie Ray, who has a... Start, obviously, move on. No, drop, obviously. He's got a 359 ERA, Adam. ERA matters. He has a 3-38 ERA over the last three seasons. He has one quality start. He does it for five innings.

You're starting Robbie Ray. You're not starting. You're dumb if you're starting Robbie Ray. You're starting Robbie Ray. For five innings, you're starting. You're starting right. One quality start. One quality start all season long for Robbie Ray.

And the Dodgers are going to light above. One, four, five, whip. One, four, five whip. Yeah. He's a strange one. He's a strange one. Agreed. He's great at certain things, and he's terrible at other things.

And I think that makes him less than must start. I think that also makes him must own, though. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe in a category of league, it depends how you, are in your category. Like, if you need strikeouts, I could see starting Robbie Ray, but he's going to kill your whip. It just is.

But also, he, like, he has five ERA downside. Like, we've seen the worst of Robbie Ray. Marcus Simeon. Like four years ago. I mean, last year, he was pretty disappointing, pretty hard to use, and yet he still had a 393 ERA. Okay, that, 393 ERA with a bad whip and no quality starts, he needs to have a 350 ERA. or so.

He also had 165 strikeouts and 123 inning. Yeah, he strikes guys out. He does. I'm not sure I trust, because I'm looking at it now, 359 ERA, 328 Fibb. Oh, 328 Fibs really good. But his home run rate is so low. For a guy who tends to give up hard contact,

or at least he has historically. Let me see how it's looking this year. Robbie Ray is definitely odd. people we fight about list. His Sierra is 420. So, you know, if that's a more predictive number than fit to you, it's a run higher. Marcus Simeon is next on the start, sit, or drop list. 79% O'N is heating up a little bit.

Marcus Simeon, start, sit, or drop? I mean, if you're somebody who makes the case to sit Machado, I can't. imagine you're starting simian if you're but at the same time like i think he's start a bowl i just don't think there's reason to get excited about using him ever on not a high power ceiling hasn't proved his strikeout rate this year and that's helped keep him afloat but he's he's pretty fringy yeah you can you can start him as a middle infielder if you want i guess you could drop him in shallowly leagues i'd say 684 oBS in may yeah yeah i was going to go with the fourth option ignore I had no idea he was 79% owned.

Yeah, all right, exactly. Nomar Mazarra, the perennially most overrated player in fantasy baseball. Number 47 outfielder and points, number 49 in Roto. That's amazing. I think he's played a fewer games, 48 games. A lot of players are like 53-ish games. And he's actually hitting lefties well this year. But Mizarra is just not that good, I'm sorry.

Start, sit or drop 83% on Mizarra. You drop him in a three outfielder league and start him in a five outfielder league. It works for me. And Christian Walker, 46% owned. Start, sit or drop? Well, you're not starting him. You know, whether or not you sit him or drop him probably depends on the depth of the league again. Kevin Krohn started for the second time since getting called up.

So they've been sticking with Walker at first base for the most part in spite of his struggles. But Kevin Kroen did start yesterday and had two doubles, which is a lot more production than Walker has provided recently. I still think the skill set of Walker is interesting enough that as long as the Diamondbacks stick with him, there are better days ahead, and he could end up being a useful fantasy option again. But the crone wrinkle is something to keep an eye on. Yeah, I'm fine dropping him.

Yeah, a lot of people are. He's 46% own. Christian Walker in May is batting 170 with one home run and 32 strikeouts. Rotation time. Okay, so yeah, didn't wait too long. agees. Aaron Nola, good start. He keeps alternating good and bad, it seems.

Kyle Hendricks has just been outstanding lately. Eight innings, one run, seven strikeouts at Houston. Chris Paddock gave up three home runs. His first three home runs allowed to writeies all year. He gave up a season high in hits, which was six, by the way. He struggled at the Yankees.

You know, unfortunately for Paddock, like he strikes out a good amount of batters per inning. He's 39th in baseball in strikeouts. and you got to figure before he makes his next turn in the rotation, he's probably going to be, I don't know, 45, 50, who knows. So I'm not sure how much he's helping you in strikeouts, just because he doesn't throw a lot of innings. James Paxton, pretty interesting stuff.

Four hitless innings with seven strikeouts against the Padres. They strike out a lot, but he was at home, and apparently they were like, we're doing something to adjust the dirt on the mound to compensate for his bulky knee. I don't know if they're going to be able to do. that in road starts, and he's pretty much said he's going to have to deal with this knee issue all season long. Cindergarde was good last night. Bueller was bad, and Bieber was terrible.

So I don't know. I know there's a lot of names there, but you guys go for it with Nola, Hendrix, Paddock, Paxton, Cindergarde, Bueller, Bieber. Anyone you really want to talk about? Scott, I'll go to you first. I think Nola, maybe his start was the most revealing of these because, you know, His previous start wasn't so great, but he has been much better overall recently and equal to season high with 14 swinging strikes at it. This was arguably his best start of the season. I think he's trending the right direction. And I'm back to considering him a must start. Hopefully, now, I don't know if you could buy low on him still, but if that was a possibility, I'd pursue it.

Yeah, Cinderguard's been a really interesting pitcher this year. 20 swinging strikes in this start But his strikeout rate is down His home run rate has been a real issue In an environment where more home runs are being hit ZRA is around like 490 I think It's gonna be better than 490 But his ex-fip and Sierra have him with a high threes

ERA right now And You know without genuine skills improvement Meaning the strikeout rate going up Or You know keeping more balls in the park. That might be what he projects for.

And that might still be good enough to make a must start. I mean, he pitches a lot of innings. He's going to have a high strike at total, but he's not, it's going to be underwhelming compared to where you drafted him this year. Cinderguard, I was reading before the start yesterday that Mickey Callow was just like, you've got to be more confident. He doesn't feel like Cindergarde is throwing with conviction, trusting his stuff out there, and he's just like, I don't know, maybe it's just a mental block.

Heath, did you learn anything about Shane Bieber in this start? Six runs in five innings, three homers allowed at Boston. And now that's 13 home runs allowed in 68 and 2 thirds. He allowed 13 home runs in 114 and 2 thirds last year. Yeah, I didn't really. It's nice that he didn't walk anybody and he had six strikeouts in five innings. You have three home runs against the Red Sox that's going to happen to a lot of pitchers. This does not give me any concern at all.

Do you guys think you would field some offers for James Paxton based on, I know it was only four innings, so obviously he was on an innings limit, a pitching out rather, but it was great, and he's been really good this year, but it's got this knee issue, you know, what would you want for Paxson if you were going to give him up? Nola, Cinderguard? I mean, I'd do those deals, sure. I don't think, I don't think in a general sense I'm looking to shot Paxon. It's an interesting point you bring up with the mound and what kind of control he's going to

have over that and his road stuff. but it's just like giving up a bankable like a starting pitcher who I feel comfortable starting and who has genuine upside like Paxton does is not really something I am in a position to consider in any league I'm in and I don't think many fantasy owners like who has who has excess starting pitcher I imagine I imagine it's a very small number of people out there I wonder if you could get someone to think they were selling high on Hyun Jen Ryu for him you'd rather have Rue than Paxson? That's what I'm not sure.

I'm not sure. The concern with Riu is he's going to have problems with innings because he always has these little minor injuries. Well, Paxons currently has one of those injuries and has a history of them as well. I kind of think I'd rather have Rew. Yeah, I looked at Paxon at the beginning of the year based on his walk to strikeout ratio and his home run luck, I thought was bad luck last year. I looked at Paxon as a guy who could take that next step and become an end. And I think it's played out.

59 strikeouts, 281 ERA in 41 and 2 thirds. Like he's been unbelievable. So I actually think when he's healthy, James Paxton is top five to top 10 pitcher. And I don't know, you know, sometimes these injuries go away. But he does have a knee issue that he pretty much said he's going to have to deal with all year

because it just didn't get good enough to go away completely. So it's a tough call. if you're going to trade Paxon, you've got to get someone that you feel like is going to be great. You have to. But just keep in mind what he's dealing with. But he has been pretty amazing. And finally, we'll end the show. I wish you could pitch a little deeper in games.

Fair. We got on the show with John Means, Pablo Lopez, Annabal Sanchez, Rinaldo Lopez. Any interest in those guys? They're pretty available. Pablo Lopez is still the most interesting to me. It's been hit or miss this year, and it was a hit. Yesterday. Yeah, the others, I don't really have much hope for it all.

This was basically Annabal Sanchez's first good start of the year, and Rinaldo Lopez has been getting crushed lately. Yeah, the word after Anabal's start was that he looked like he did last year. He was pitching down in the zone. He was mixing his pitches. And last year, he had a 283RA and a strikeout per inning. So, yes, I'm sure we're all going to be very hesitant to buy into it, but just something to keep in mind in case he does throw another good one.

next time, Annabal Sate. Let's see him do two or three more of those, and then maybe we could talk. Okay. All right, we'll talk to you tomorrow. On our Friday show, we will have Scott and Heath give us buy low, sell high, and buy high. We'll talk about two-star pitchers, Pablo Lopez next week, Milwaukee on the road and then Atlanta at home, so probably want to avoid him even after a good start. Yeah, you know what we'll do. We'll give you some weekend streamers and have a little fun on fantasy baseball today.

Thanks for listening for Scott and Heath. I'm Adam. We'll talk to you tomorrow.