Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/31 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Trout Trades, Legitometer, Tue. Recap

Episode Date: May 31, 2017

We start the show with some Mike Trout trades and Scott and Chris can't seem to agree on what to give up for Trout. Then it's on to Jose Quintana's struggles (12:45) and the awesome performances of Trevor Bauer, Eric Skoglund and Dinelson Lamet (14:00) ... We're getting the Legitometer out today (27:15)! How legit are Brett Gardner, some surprising shortstops, Robbie Ray and others? ... We're grading your trades (55:40), ranking starting pitchers and discussing the changing baseball landscape ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Wednesday show. It's Hump Day. Adam Azer, Scott White, and Chris Towers, humping around. Bobby Brown style here, right? I don't know that I like this intro. No, come on. It's Chris, stay or go? I don't understand the reference. Ain't nobody humping around. You never heard that song? No, I feel like the context is very different.

It is completely different. Absolutely. Well, welcome to the Wednesday show. We'll grade some trades later on in the show, including some Mike Trout Trades. Actually, let's create a Mike Trout trade right now. Oh, I'm feeling crazy today. This is from Anthony. Give up Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Barrios. Get Mike Trout.

I think that's a win for the guy getting Gonzalez and Burrios. Hmm. I kind of felt the opposite. I think it's a win for the guy getting Trout. But it does depend largely on circumstance. Like if the guy giving up Gonzalez and Barrios is 7 and 1 or 6 and 2, Yeah, he can afford to take his lumps while Trout's out and in the hopes that then he clearly has the best team when Trout returns. So, Chris would not give up Carlos Gonzalez and Burrios for Trout.

What would you give up for Mike Trout? This is the same thing as the Noah Cindergarde and Madison Bumgarner thing, where you're not just trading for a guy who's definitely going to come back and be himself. Like, you hope so, but if he has surgery on his thumb, like, that's the type of injury that can really derail it. season and that's that's my concern with my trout i'm not necessarily saying he's definitely going to struggle when he comes back but it's absolutely in the cards i give him like a 90% chance i mean it's not a shoulder really the shoulder is the only thing it's the thing with which you grip the bat though you know like that's we see a lot of guys i i don't struggle coming back from and and then that's the that's the stability thumb right that's the thumb that you're holding on to at the end of your swing

that's your follow through i i don't feel like we see it a lot with thumb injuries though and and we don't like mike trout's basically slump proof right how there there was that one august three years ago where he hit like 200 and he was injured when he did it he was but he won't be injured and theoretically when he comes back from that i actually think i'm much more willing to pay for trout in this situation again if i was already had a nice lead built up then i would cinder guard a because i feel like it's a more predictable return and b because it's mike trout Let's have some more fun. Let's create another Mike Trout trade while we're at it.

This one is from Gmail. It's all it said was Gmail. Maybe it was pronounced Gamal. Maybe it's a person. Gamile. Gamile Weeks. 14 team head-to-head categories league. Send Scott Shebler, Matt Kemp, Michael Paneda, get Mike Trout.

Shebler, Kemp, and Paneda get Trout. 14 teams. That's going to be really hard. Like, you're, you're kind of screwing your team over for two months. It's a lot. Like, you're giving up three must-start players in a 14-team league. It could be giving up Kemp. Shebler and Paneda.

You could be giving up three sell-high candidates. I actually wanted to talk about Kemp because, you know, he had a good game yesterday, but I don't know if we ever talked about the impact that Freeman's loss could have on them. But there's no question you're starting, Matt Kemp. Yeah. And especially in a 14-te-te-team. I don't think there's any question you're starting Scott Shebler in a 14-te-le. I think Kemp was the only one you actually drafted as a charter.

Sheppler, you basically got for free. He's bonus. Oh, yeah, you heard that, right? Do we have to enjoy that? I don't think so. What did I do? What did I do? You meant to say a starter for Matt Kemp, and you said something else that was just incredible.

You've ever seen the movie along came Polly. I have no, I don't know. I have no idea what I said. I'm glad I wasn't the only one who caught that. But thank you for that. Sure. So do you think you'd do this, Shebler, Kemp, and Paneda for Trout? Shebler, Kemp, and Paneda for Trout in a 14-team league.

It's a lot. I mean, I don't know what the roster looks like. If Shebler was just a spare part for me, which is highly plausible. Yeah. In a 10-team league, I think I'd do it. Sure, because then there's a chance Panetta is not a starting caliber player in a 10-team league. Shebler might not be either. but in a 14 team league

And you said it was Roto, right? Categories, yeah. Okay, yeah. So, like, that you're looking at, you need nine pitchers, you need five outfielders, you need a utility. That's potentially two months. I think the bottom line is, like, Trout still holds value. He could be back right after the All-Star break. It might not be until start of August.

But, you know, particularly if it's the league where playoffs don't begin particularly early for you. He still has a He'll still have time to make a monster contribution Now they said six to eight weeks I probably should have at least considered the sixth part of it more I've always been, you know, two months, I've always since yesterday Two months, two months, eight weeks Could be six weeks

I'll take the over but it's possible All right, we got a lot to talk about from yesterday Jose Cantana with another dud Trevor Bauer making Masahiro Tanaka, well, putting his start in perspective, because Tanaka had 13 strikeouts against the A's on Friday. Bauer goes 14 against the A's yesterday.

Denelson Lemette, Eric Skogland. Talk about those guys, but really a lot of hitters today. Brett Gardner went double-dong, so did Matt Holiday. I think Zach Kozart did. One other player do it. But let's start with this. Is the following, a must-add player? Eric Young Jr.?

No. What if I need steals? No. He stole two in one game. How available is Cameron Mabon? Yeah, exactly. Must add. Not super available.

He was 45% owned yesterday. Well, that's, for a steals, okay, for a guy that you're picking up only for steals, I wouldn't expect him to be more than 45% on. Because of all the head-to-head points we have on CBS? So to answer the question, he's definitely not a must-ad player. But if you absolutely need steals, he's a can. ad player. I don't think there's any guarantee that he plays every day over Ben Revere. I'd still rather have De Shields than him. And DeShields is probably like 20% owned, right?

Shields hasn't been doing much. I don't expect Eric Young's going to do much. All right. Eric Young did lead off yesterday, and Cameron Maven was out for the Angels. I'm not going to spend that much more time talking about Young, but he and Ben Revere... Just at the start of the show. Yeah. Well, we did some trout trades. Now? All right. Here's a tweet. Tweet of the day is from Buster Only of ESPN, and he is in his tweet citing Elias, the Elias Sports Bureau, if there are 47 home runs today, then May, the month of May, will set a record for the most home runs in any calendar month in baseball history.

First of all, do you think there will be 47 home runs today? It's three per game. That's a little higher than the league average. I think teams are averaging 62 home runs in 51 games, so you'd need everyone to play over their heads just a little bit. I want to know how many games we've got in Miller Park and minute made and none. I mean, when it's... Are we playing an 18-T tonight? There, no cores. They're in Seattle. We're going to get there. Yeah, I think the brewers are on the road. I'm honestly not sure. All right, but look, we spent a lot of time this offseason talking about

was last year legit. How do we approach it? All those home runs. Looks like it's the same thing. saw us that yesterday that we're on pace to, for this season to have the most plate appearances finish in strikeouts or walks, which we set a record last year. It's becoming a three true outcomes league. And I think they said it's been a record like four years in a row or something. I think I was on the ESPN broadcast last night. But even if it's not, we know what the trend is. Strikeouts, walks, homers.

Yeah, the three true outcomes nature. Something I wrote about a while back how that's, and that's kind of, why I think pitching has evolved the way it has where you get this chasm between the pitchers who are able to throw strikes and miss bats and not give up home runs versus the ones who suffer in one of those areas, if not multiple, and how it creates like some of the most dominant pitchers we've ever seen

and yet the majority of pitching around. baseball is very vulnerable. And this is also, I would say, this is a trend that is being exacerbated by the trend towards more shifts. And Joey Votto actually talked about this in a Fangraph piece yesterday where he says, he's part of the fly ball revolution because of how much he's getting shifted. He doesn't want to hit the ball on the ground to the right side ever. You know, the first person I heard talk about that was actually Mark Tashara,

that one bounce back year he had before, uh, It all fell apart, and he retired. Two years ago, I guess it was, that recently. He talked about, you know, his stat line that year was like as many home runs as singles or something, and it seemed completely unsustainable. And he was just like, look, the way they're shifting on us, you have to hit it over the shift. That's the way to do it. It's a different game.

I look forward to an adjustment. And as defense's fans don't really like it as much. As defense has become more efficient, though, you're going to have offensive. of players need a way to to overcome that. I'm starting to come close to the point where I wouldn't hate a rule saying you can only have X amount of infielder. That's what I'm talking about. I've been campaigning for that. That's a bad rule.

I love it. I mean, there's no analog in baseball for that rule. I mean, look, sometimes you have to make bad rules or look like bad rules for the sake of bettering the game. How about you call the high strike? Why would that change the shift? Because you're still, you're giving too much value to hitters, especially on those low pitches, where hitters are able to hit those out of the park. Our perception of what a bad pitch is needs to be changing.

Because you see, there was something, I retweeted something yesterday that shows that basically success is all middle and low now. And part of that is hitters know that the high strike's not going to be called, so they just pass on it. And also, more hitters are finding it easier to hit for power on pitches low in the zone now. That's part of the whole uppercut swing. And so if you start calling that high strike, you're going to take a little bit away from the hitters and force them to adjust, maybe take away some of that power. Interesting. Certain pitchers, look at Robbie Ray yesterday.

they're taking advantage of how, and I guess the most famous example is Marco Estrada, they're taking advantage of how pitchers have been conditioned to hit that low strike, and they're throwing these quote unquote rising fastballs that hitters are just flailing at. The Dodgers, Rays, and Red Sox are all making that an organizational philosophy as well of throwing more high fastballs and getting away from sinkers. Robbie Ray. Robbie Ray, I mean... He threw like a 95-mile-per-hour fastball to end the game last night. And he was...

He got so many swings and misses on the fastball, and I just watched on MLB.com, they have like, whenever somebody has a big strikeout game, they have... In Robbie's race case, it was 10 strikeouts in 10 seconds. And you just, one right after another, they were swinging through a high fastball. Yeah, a lot of fastballs.

He basically... Yeah, he threw 76 of his 115 pitch. just for Slider or for fast pass. All right, so let's get into the action. And that'll be on the Legitometer. We're putting Brett Gardner. Zach Co's are actually three short stops on the Legitometer. Cody Bellinger, in case you haven't noticed,

he's been a little cold lately. Yonder Alonzo's been great. Robbie Ray, Luis Severino. So Legitometer coming up later. Let's talk about Jose Cantana. And 10 hits seven runs and two and two thirds against the Red Sox. This followed a four-and-a-third eight-run outing at Arizona. Now, Cantana's only walked one batter over three starts, which was only 15 innings,

but that's encouraging. Rick Rantoria says the velocity is the same. It's not the stuff. It's the location for Jose Cantana. Do you guys feel that going forward, Jose Cantana will be a mid-3 ZRA guy and, you know, Jose Cantana? So, by low, in other words? Absolutely.

Yeah, I do. and right there's not a lot of underlying factors that suggest regression has happened here so i mostly buy the explanation the white socks are giving even though you know it's probably dumbed down a little for the masses um i think the bipolar uh the way his cantana seasons unfolded in this bipolar way where you know several starts he looks like the cantona we all know and he all know he looks like the cantana we all in love, and then there are these seven earn run outings mixed in, I think that's even more reason to believe the true Kintana is still there. We just need to see it. He's just not pitching well right now. Right. Yeah. All right, let me give you three names of pitchers who are, you know,

anywhere from very available to somewhat available. Trevor Bauer, seven innings, three runs, 14 strikeouts, and 19 walks, 73 strikeouts this year for Bauer in 57. 57, really? 73 strikeouts, 57 innings? Is that a typo? I know, but... And the, what, 1.4 whip also helps in that regard? And three quality starts, that's it, all season long. I had not given Bauer. In fact, I thought maybe he should be the one to be removed for Clevenger before

Salazar got his temporary removal. But now I think Bauer's pretty safe and secure in that role. Not as a fantasy option, necessarily. But I don't know. I don't know what to make at this start. I can understand just picking them up in let's see where it goes kind of way, especially since pitching is such a need. But he did some interesting things in this start. All three of the runs were in his first four innings.

And then from that point forward, it's like he got angry because his average fastball velocity went up two miles per hour. And he threw like twice as many, he threw his curveball like twice as often in this start as he normally does. Got a lot of swings and misses on it. He basically went Lance McCullors on the athletics, and it'll be interesting to see where it goes. I think it's not like Bauer's never faked us out before. Yeah, I think the key point there is on the athletics. Yeah, they strike out a lot, and they're not, they don't have a great lineup for sure. So the three pitchers I was going to give you with Bauer, 64% owned,

Denelson Lammett with a nice start against the Cubs. He's 42% owned, and Eric Scogland, major league debut against the Tigers. He goes six and a third. two hits, no runs, one walk, five strikeouts. Eric Skogland, 7% owned for the Royals. And after the game, Miguel Cabrera said, you know, he's so tall that he throws, you know, 90 miles per hour looks like 93. I don't remember the exact quote. Did you see the, the nice moment between Cabrera and Skoglund?

No. Cabrera steps in the batters box for his first pitch. He kind of smiles at him and gives him a thumbs up. Really? Yeah. He did that earlier in the year. I saw they gave like a hat tip to somebody who made it through a great pitch at him. He's just loving life.

Yeah, he's just like this late career gregarious, you know, Cabrera. All right, so rank them. Bauer, Lemaet, Scogland. In terms of how eager I am to roster them, I would go Lament first, Bauer, second, and Skoglund, probably a distant third, just because, I mean, in the minors, the strikeout rate was only so-so. The home run rate was not so great. Nice debut, but I need to see a lot more from Skoglin. Lament, though, kind of reminded me of Michael Fulner.

Elmer last year he came up with the reputation as a two-pitch pitcher, but then unfurls this change-up that puts them over the top. And it doesn't have to be like an amazing change-up. We see this a lot with younger pitchers. If you have that third pitch just to keep hitters guessing, get you through the third time through the order, which we haven't necessarily seen from Lamet yet, but, you know, the stuff is impressive.

You got 17 swinging strikes again yesterday. Doesn't Eric Scoglin, like, don't you feel like he should be pitching for the twins? Or the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Would you guys rather have Denelson Lamet or Brad Peacock? Lema. Lament.

Scott? I agree, Lament. Lament or anybody on the Rockies, including John Gray. I'd rather have John Gray. Uh-huh, yeah. How about Tyler Anderson? How about our model? Oh, Tyler Anderson was a big letdown yesterday.

It was at Colorado, but he's, you know, kind of the appeal for him was he's supposedly, supposedly better at Colorado. There's still some interesting underlying numbers there for Anderson, the combination of whiff rate and weak contact. But the lack of consistency is, yeah, he's behind Lament for me. Joe Ross or Lomet? Joe Ross. Um, hmm. I, yeah, I guess Ross for now, but that, that, that, That weird midgame velocity issue for Ross is making it a close call.

Mike Fultenevich or Skoglund? Like, would you drop somebody that you just sort of know who he is? Yeah, I'm looking at the most dropless. Patrick Corbin, Mike Fulton Nevitz. Sure. Yeah, I don't think you're going to get behind that. You're not going to miss guys like that. Right, right.

And you may not even keep Skoglund, but let's give him a shot. How owned is Chris Tillman? He's 54% owned. That's another guy that I would be fine. Like, there's a lot of guys that are just guys. Yeah, exactly. Okay. So, any other big time standouts for you?

Or we can go to, let's go to the big news, and then we'll get to the Legitomeeter, actually. Okay, here we go. The big news, Bryce Harper suspended four games. Did I say, I think I said over three yesterday. Yeah. I thought it would be more like five. I'm telling you would have been probably 20 or so if he hit him with the helmet. Not 20.

Hunter Strickland, six game suspension. Both are appealing these suspensions. James Paxton will still. start today against Colorado. I've been getting a lot of questions. Start or sit at home. James Paxton against the Rockies. I think you start them. I know we're usually a little iffy about pitchers coming off to DL, but I think you start him. Nelson Cruz left with calf tightness, but he is expected to play today. Tomorrow, so today I want to look at good players and look at the Legitometer. Tomorrow, usually it's Woriometer Wednesday, but Memorial Day threw everything off.

It'll be a... Yeah, today's Wednesday. It's Worryometer Thursday, but there's got to be a better. Like a TH word for Thursday. Anyway, Manny Machado, 0 for 5 with four strikeouts yesterday. O for 13 with 8Ks in his last three games. So we'll talk Machado tomorrow. Adam, I got a question for you. Yes, sir. Would you rather drop Delino DeShields or Jason Worth?

In our categories league? Yeah. OVP? Yeah. Oh, gosh. I guess DeShields. Do we ever win steals? We have some steals.

Yeah, we have some steals. With Polanco and Desmond. Did you suggest to Marger gave Michael Morris a concussion? Yes. We're picking up Skagland. Okay. Cool. I like that.

Yeah. Heath isn't underhanded Heath isn't here to stop us. So Dustin Bidroyo is on the DL with a wrist injury. He might only miss 10 days. There's no structural damage. We'll see. Vince Velasquez has a right elbow flexor strain and Velazquez is on the DL. Yep.

See that. That was, his velocity fell a lot in the middle of that start, I believe. And we've got Cameron Mabin was out with pain And his side Tyson Ross could be ready next week Anybody buy this John Carlos Stanton

12 for 29 with three homers As the number two hitter in the order Anybody buy that batting second Would be better for John Carlo I mean there's the theory now That batting second is Second is where you

Second is where you put your best hitter So I don't know that it helps Stanton necessarily But I understand understand why the Marlins are doing it. And by the way, Stan's having a pretty awesome year, like a 45-home or 120 RBI pay. He's cut his strikeout rate and his walk rate, so he's being more aggressive, which is a trend that we've seen over the last couple years. But now he's doing the sort of Joey Votto thing where he's swinging more at pitches inside of the zone,

swinging a little less at pitches outside of the zone. That's drunk Carlos Stanton. The Phillies have discussed sending Mike El Franco to the miners, according to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly. I own Franco in three of five leagues. Am I crazy for still owning him? There's this weird sub-tier of third baseman that we all really liked to varying degrees coming into the season who have all just been kind of trash. Bregman, Franco, I guess Beltray, but he's been hurt. Longoria Frazier.

That's just like, I don't know how low to move them in my rankings. I've got Franco 17th, but that's just more like, I hope. I hope who's the most dropable in that group. Frazier is the one that stood out when you said the names. I'd be more likely to drop Frazier. I mean, Franco? Franco than Frazier because of track record. I'd be more likely to...

Franco's had a good half season. Yeah, it's true. And I guess I'm just thinking about... I guess I'm just thinking about... Because Franco, for me, he's not even a third basement. He's just a utility. You know, he's a bench player. But I don't need him to play third necessarily.

So these are guys that have a lot of upside. Why not Breggman versus Franco? Like you say, Franco's only had a half good season. Breggman's had a half of a half of a good season. Right. But there's been a lot. There's been a lot. Games for Breggen, by the way.

Franco's in, like, that perfect place where he's had long enough. He's disappointed us long enough that we feel like we should know better when he disappoints us again. But there's also been that short period of time. Like, it's almost like it's been too long for Franco, for me to. keep buying into him. Well, Breggman, it's been just a couple months this season. It could just be a slow start.

Okay. Why don't you rank these four players, just rest of season? Justin Boer. Okay. Yonder Alonzo, Alex Breggman, Justin Smoke. I'm still going to take Breggman one, but then I'll go Alonzo, Boer, Smoke. Man, I can't believe I've been putting Boer third at that group. Alonzo's been so good.

He's slugging like six something. Yeah. He does occasionally. He still might sit against lefties, but... Which is why I'm surprised you went with him. But they're all lefties, all three first basemen. I don't... At least before the injury, he had stopped sitting against lefties.

Alonso had. Let me double-check that. It was a little inconclusive. Yeah. It was pretty recent. Would you put Bregman ahead of all three of those first baseman? Chris? That's a tough one just because, like, the argument for...

it is that it's harder to find a third basement, but none of these guys are starting at their primary position for you anyway, most likely. They're either utility or corner infield or anyway, so at that point, you're just comparing all of them. And yeah, I think I'd rather have, I guess I'll go Alonzo Borr Bregman Smoke. Alonzo Borr Bregman Smoke. Heath's not here, so it doesn't feel quite as good, but I did write about Justin Smoke yesterday. I actually think it's really interesting. You should go read it. Okay. All right.

And a couple more notes real quick here. The Giants called up Orlando Collekees Day, who has a pretty good Game of Thrones team name, last name. Yeah. At AAA, he batted at 838. 838 OPS, didn't hit 838. 838 OPS with 11 steals. That was in the PCL. So Calixte Day led off for the Giants and played all three outfield positions yesterday.

But he's shortstop eligible. So who's interested in? in Orlando Colleckes Day. This isn't the first time we've seen him in the majors, for what it's worth. You got three at-bats for the Royals in 2015. Oh, I remember them well. No, and that's kind of the point. Like, he's a non-prospect who's with his second organization now,

and it just feels like a journeyman to me. A little bit of speed there, I guess. But, yeah, so that's Orlando Colleagues Day. We're not so interested. Finally, Robert Giselman could have. end up closing. I told you he was a sleeper. For the Mets. For the betts. See, the weird thing about that is he's been god-awful in the first inning.

I don't know. I don't know. We'll see. I don't have any reason to take Addison Reed out of that role. Addison Reed hasn't been good. He's turned it around. A couple good ones in a row. But he hasn't been good this season. Gasselman could play up in a smaller role, but nothing we've seen so far really should make you very confident in that. Well, if you want to go to a net's game or you want to watch Eric Skoglin pitch for the Vikings even and go to a baseball slash football game. You should use Seat Geek. I have the Seat Geek app on my phone. I think we all have the Seek app on our phones. I use it every single time I need tickets. With just a few taps I can instantly find seats. We're talking sports. We're talking comedy, theater, concerts. Anything you

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All right, time for the legit ometer. Zero to ten. How legit are these guys? We can also frame this in a buy low, buy high sort of way. Brett Gardner, 80% owned. Two homers yesterday. He is the number 16 outfielder in points leagues. Number 14 in Roto.

Gardner's struggle slumped earlier in the year, but really you could sort of attribute it to a collision he had at first base. He was bad after that, and it's been pretty hot since. I don't think he's stolen a base since. He's not stealing. He's still got five steals, but 11 home runs. I was going to say earlier, you know why it's, you know it's a record-setting month for home runs in MLB

when Brett Gardner's hit nine for May. He's one of these guys. We saw, I guess, a lot of these last year, because I just remember doing the research and how many times I wrote in my notes pre-season. a lot more fly balls and the home run to fly ball ratio was way up yeah i can't remember off the top of my head who it was like who but there were so many of them and breck gardner right now which is that description not necessarily something you would expect you would actually just from a math

perspective you would expect the more fly balls you hit the more the number will normalize um move towards the mean and so i would expect he'll probably go back to about 11 home run 11% home run to fly ball rate, which is half of what he's been this season. But I guess Yankee Stadium can boost that a little bit. He is hitting the ball a little harder, but he's hot. It doesn't feel legit to me. I'd be fine just enjoying it. It's worth trying to sell high.

It's going to be very difficult to do in the outfield. Maybe you target the Mike Trout owner or something. All right, listen, you're the Mike Trout owner. I am. Podcast Points League, people, you want Brett Gardner? Come and see me. So Legitometer, what, like a five? He's not bad, but he's not bad.

Yeah, but like I would, he's hit nine in May. I would expect him to hit nine the rest of the season. Okay. Which would probably, I'm pretty sure that would be a career high for him. Yes, 17 is his career high, home runs, and he's got 11 right now. So, Zach Cozart is next on the Legitometer. Then it'll be Elvis Andrews. Then it'll be Chris Owings.

That's so weird. Cozart is 88% owned. He's the number two shortstop in both points in Roto. He is batting. 350 with seven home runs, two steals and two attempts, a great walk to strikeout ratio, 26 walks, 32Ks, 13 doubles, 4 triples. And I looked at the batted ball profile. It looks very similar to last year, but the Babbitt is at 3.94.

Yeah. So, Zach Cozart, legitometer, zero to 10. I'll go, like, if we went five on Gardner, I'll go, I'll go six on Cozart. I still think, like, I mean, just from the Babbitt, it's clear he's performing well over his head. That doesn't mean he can't flirt with a 300 batting average. It kind of goes without saying he's not going to hit 350. But I like the strikeout to walk ratio. I like that there's a little bit of power there.

And mainly I like that he's the shortstop. I think that makes him very difficult to even try to sell high on because what are you going to do a shortstop after you trade him? I think he's a very low-end starting shortstop. but, like, I would still expect him to hit around 250, 260. Are you taking Addison Russell or a Cozart recipe? With as little as he strikes out, you think it'll be that low? Yeah, he's, there's no real reason to think that he's changed this dramatically, and he's always been a really low Babbap guy.

And so, like, 282 for his career, he's at 294 now. So I would expect even when that normalizes, he didn't strike out much last year. He had the same strikeout rate, and he had a 252 average. Yeah, but there was. it was a really bad Babbitt last year. It was his highest in three years. Okay. Like, he's a low Babbat hitter.

Zach Cozart. Zach Cozart. We're talking about. Cozart to Russell. I would still take Addison Russell. Me too. It's... But I think they're pretty close in my rankings at this point.

Yeah, like, when I was going through shortstop yesterday, I was really torn on where to rank Cozart. and I could be talked into moving him ahead of Russell probably. Elvis Andrews is the number three shortstop in points league is number one in Roto. He has 12 steals. He had stolen 24, 25, and 27 bases in each of his last three years, over his last three years. So he's going to blow that away at this pace. He's on like a 36-steal pace.

Seven home runs. His career high has eight hit last year. And 13 walks, 34 strikeouts. That probably looks fairly normal for him. So Elvis Andrews, he's killing it right now. Legitometer on Andrews, zero to ten. Chris? You know, the change started happening last season.

Come on, hit me with a number. Hit me with a number. Five. Thank you. And yes, he did have a great, didn't he have a big second half last year? Yeah, I think he started hitting for power in the second half last year. And that's a game changer. If he's, you know, going to have a profile similar to what we saw from.

like Jose Ramirez or even Francisco Lendor last year, that's what would make him a legitimate stud and not the de facto stud he was for most of his career because shortstop's so terrible. Well, what do you think? You think it's legit? It's kind of the same thing I'm saying with Cozard. I almost don't even care.

I'm just willing to start him at shortstop and enjoy it for as long as it lasts. I really hate to cop out, but aren't there some things where it's just like, I'm going to ask you guys what you think. And who knows? Well, that's most of it. It's like some things we have a pretty good idea about.

We're taking educated guesses on most of this stuff. There's a lot more uncertainty involved in what we're doing than the way we talk about it. Typically. But this is a guy who's never hit more than eight home runs, Zelva Sanders, in his season. He has seven right now. Yeah. But you think about how far we've come in terms of player evaluation, you know, and the transformation by way of advanced stats of that process.

I mean, we've been podcasting seven years or so, Adam. Seven, right? Yeah. And, like, the discussions we have about these players, just how dramatically they've changed during that time. Well, for me, it's like every year I had a new website. Like, one year it was baseball reference. Then it was Brooks baseball.

This year, I've been on fan graphs a little bit more. So, yeah. Well, and things like fly ball rate, even Babbip, even Babip was completely foreign when we first started. So we have a lot more information. And the whole world... We sound a lot smarter when we talk about it. I don't know that we're any more accurate.

The whole baseball world's understanding of all of these things has changed, too. Like, you know, Babib used to be something that we were just like, it's just luck. And now we're like, no, certain players are just going to be high Babbip guys. Certain players are going to be low Babbip guys. With Elvis Anderson, it is worth noting, Scott, you've talked about this lot this season. Stealing bases is, you know, what, 75%? intent. Okay.

He is on pace for about 15 more stolen base attempts than he had last season in the same number of opportunities. Okay. He had 219 stolen base opportunities last season, attempted 32. At his current pace, if he had 219 stolen base opportunities, he would attempt 46 steals. I'm looking at your rankings. Are you going to move Elvis Andrews ahead of Jonathan VR?

No. I that was another one I like I really had trouble with that about eight through 14 range at shortstop where you have like the Owings all the bad players and Andrews and VR like players who

some of them have performed really well for one third of a season and some of them performed really well last year and haven't performed so well for one third of a season like like a Ledmas Diaz being another and just when are you willing to to make that leap and put the the Johnny come lately.

But, Alet M. D.S. is a good example of why even a full season may not be enough to tell us about a player's skill set. So are you pulling the plug on Alibniz Dias? No, I still have him, I think, a little bit ahead of these guys. But I'm certainly less confident. But Elvis Andrews was a top ten shortstop last year, too. Right. So, I mean, de facto. Like, you got to put it.

I feel like he should be ahead of Toulowitzky, Chris, and he's not. At least in points, he's not. And Roto, he is. All right. All right, last shortstop here. Chris Owings. Number seven in points, number three in Roto right now. Chris Owings, batting 315 with six home runs, nine steals in 11 attempts. He has had a Big May with a 32-bting average, but a 397 Babbitt. This one feels the least sustainable to me. Would you guys agree between Cozart, Andrews, and Owings that Owings is the least sustainable? He was on our radar the earliest of these three, which I, the other two have been kind of slow burners. Except Cozart was like the best hitter in baseball for the first three weeks of the season or something crazy. Right, but it seemed like all batting average.

But now lately it seems like Owings has been all batting average, right? How many home runs does he have in May? In May he's batted at 322 with two home runs. Somehow only eight runs scored. I'll give him a four. I know I haven't ranked ahead of Cozart. probably need to change it. Yeah, three.

I've had a lot of trouble with him in general, just like I'm not sure whether I should buy into him when you guys have. Okay, that's Chris Owing, so not quite as legit as the other two. I'll tell you what is legit, though. Fantasy baseball is legit. It's awesome, and so is Draft. Play Fantasy on Draft, a simple daily fantasy app where you can do snake drafts, just like the ones you do at the beginning of the season all year long.

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code FB today for that 100% bonus on up to $600. Back to baseball. Legitometer on Cody Bellinger, who went 0 for 6 with four strikeouts yesterday, and in the eight games prior, he batted 179 with three walks and 14 strikeouts, only two extra base hits. They were both homers. Those two home runs kind of saved Bellinger a little bit. So let me frame it as like Bellinger has been a serious impact player since being called up. How legit is that? Zero to 10. Strikeout rates up to 32%.

Give me a number. Hit me with a number. I'll say he as an impact player. Like big time. Has been or is going to be? Four. That's low on Ballinger. I tried to sell high on him before this uptick and strikeouts happened in the podcast league

and didn't get anywhere. I wish I had because I agree. I'll give it a five. I still think he's probably a starting caliber player. but not as a first baseman. More is like a utility player. Utility low-end outfielder. Is it?

Yeah, he's maybe 40th in my outfield rankings, so we're talking kind of a fringe starter in three outfields. Yeah, like in the league where I have Mike Trout in, I feel okay about my outfield regardless because I picked up Conforto, because I picked Belanger, because I picked up Eric Thames. There's been so many strikeouts lately, man. Yeah, it's crazy.

It's been bad. That's why I don't dock guys the way I used to. I feel like Bellinger, look, pitchers are adjusting to him right now. Let's see if he can make the adjustment back. And there's no guarantee. Those two home runs. There's no guarantee he can't. And I only own Bellinger in a Roto League, which makes it easier.

I don't lose points for strikeouts. He will continue to hit home runs. Like, I don't want to bury him either. Like, he's probably going to be the NL rookie of the year, right? Am I forgetting somebody obvious? Like, I feel pretty confident saying that already. But at the same time, time, you probably, at the height of Bellinger, hysteria, it would have been a good time to trade him.

All righty. But it's probably a good time to trade anyone at the height of hysteria. Right now, it's probably still a good time to trade Aaron Judge. Like, there's still stuy and I agree with that. Like, I legitimately think Aaron Judge is a top 10 outfielder, and I understand he's probably not going to sustain this batting average, probably not going to sustain this OPS. But when the dust settles, I still think what kind of upgrade are you going to get from that? But his perceived value is probably still higher than his current value. Not if he's a top 10 outfielder.

I mean, would you trade him for Ryan Braun? No. No, but Ryan Brown's hurt. Would you trade him for Stanton? Yes. I have Stanton's one spot ahead of Judge. So yes. Okay.

But I think he's basically Stanton 2.0. Would you trade him for Price? Would you trade Aaron Judge or David Price? No. Depends on need. I might have a lot of outfield depth. And David Price is too risky. All right, Legitometer on Robbie Ray, who just threw a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts at Pittsburgh.

In his last three starts, no runs in 23 and two-thirds, only three walks. But they've all been on the road at San Diego, at Milwaukee, at Pittsburgh. At home, Robbie Ray is a 675 ERA. So, like, first legitometer. He's the number 12 starting pitcher right now. So what do you think on Robbie Ray? Forget the legitimator. Let's do buy those so high.

This is just so interesting with Robbie Ray. Or do you try to sell them because the last three starts a bit? I need pitching so bad, like, unless I can trade him for a better pitcher, which we always say are the kind of deals that don't actually happen. I'm not going to trade. You'd have to trade him for price. I don't care about the – like, you'd have to, right? But the interesting thing about Robbie Ray and the way he's pitching this year is he's introduced this curveball. And I think Zach Granky – he's talked – Robbie Ray's talked about how Zach Granky's helped him develop this curveball.

And curveball is usually not a great swing and miss pitch. What you're looking for with the curveball. ball is a lot of ground balls. You're hoping guys will get on top of it with that downward movement. His ground ball rate has gone down. So it's like, it's kind of hard to, it's just, he's such a difficult pitcher to figure out. It's so hard to figure out. Well, but I think my main point here with Ray is that 0.6.4 on the road, 675 at home.

Last three starts, 23 and 2 3rd scoreless innings. All on the road against two bad lineups and the, Milwaukee, it was obviously a big star for him, San Diego, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh. So do you look at that and say, when he pitches at home, he's going to stink again? Or are we waiting for the humidor? Like, I've never, and I own Ray in a couple leagues. I've never sat him. You know, like, home or away.

Would you trade him for Jose Cantana? Not right now, no. Yeah, I don't think I would either. They're kind of parallel each other in my rankings. they're right next to each other. Would you like to know a reason to be really skeptical of Robbie Ray? He has a 42.9% hard hit rate, which is the highest in baseball. Now, I'm skeptical of how much pitchers have control over hard hit rates,

although he's always been a very high hard hit rate guy. He's just an impossible, like before the season when I wrote, you know, my series on guys who could be aces, he was one of the ones I wrote about. And I tried to find, like, what could this guy do to get there? And with Robbie Ray, it's just like, I don't know, pitch better? Like, that's just like...

He has. I mean, he has pitched better. Like, you look at his numbers. I think at least Heath and I had him as a breakout pitcher this year, and you look at his numbers, and it seems like, okay, this is exactly what we hoped Robbie Ray would be. A lot of his peripherals are identical. Like, his fly ball...

Like, if I told you that someone's strikeout rate went up a little bit, but his walk rate and his ground ball rate, moved in the wrong direction. He's just a weird pitcher. Well, I think what's encouraging is... Three walks in his last three starts. Yeah. And zero in his last two.

That's going to take a while for me to buy into that he's like stopped walking people. Right. But... I mean, that... He's pitching better right now. You can live with the home runs. You can live with the bad home park

if he's not walking guys. Yeah. If that's strikeouts are so elite. Yeah. It's a game changer. But that's Robbie Ray. Who's more legit? Robbie Ray or Luis Severino?

Severino. I would say Severino. Okay. Another really good star for Severino yesterday with eight strikeouts in Baltimore. He gave up one run on three hits in an inning and a walk. All three of them were infield hits. Pathetic infield singles to shortstop. So frustrating.

So, like, in theory, this could have been four hits and no runs instead of seven hits. What about Robbie Ray or Michael Panetta? I'd take Ray. Me too. Would you? He's been the Panetta down. are all doubt or a year.

They are mirror images of one another. Yeah, they're pretty similar, except Pineda doesn't walk anybody. Yeah, and he gets more ground balls, but he also tends to get hit even harder. All right, is this the start of something big?

Alex Bregman with a home run in two straight games? And actually look at May, now the numbers look a lot better after the two games. 272, 306 on base. That's weird. 5-11 slugging.

I didn't, like, he never walks, huh? 15 walks and 201 at bats last year for Bregman I feel like he walked a decent amount in the minors His plate discipline And it may have been mostly strikeouts But he was a guy who walked more than he struck out in the minors It was really really good plate discipline Which was part of the reason

I've been so enthusiastic about him from the beginning Is this the start of something or is this too not enough yet? Yeah I still think it's just a couple of good games Okay How about 28 days of Chase Utley hitting 349 with a 432 on base and 635 slugging percentage? Seven walks, 10 strikeouts, two steals. For a 3% owned second baseman Chase Utley, killing it over the last month. Is this the start of something or is this just a good month?

Well... He probably should be owned more than 3%. That probably means there are like a decent number of NL-only leagues where he's not owned, which seems silly. I mean, at the same time, he's only playing because both Turner and Peterson are on the DL. So he's not a long-term solution. Okay. And is this the start of something for Albert Pujols? A six-game hitting streak with three home runs, a home run in two straight games.

He's at $599 for his career. And this is really encouraging because you look at the peripherals, Albert Poulos has the worst strikeout to walk ratio of his career, but it's really turned around. Six walks, 22 strikeouts in April, eight walks, 11. strikeouts and an 838 OPS in May for pool holes. So the plate discipline's back. So he's been a little streaky last few years. We didn't talk about that much, but he was also coming off that plantar fascist surgery.

That could explain the slow start in April. I still view him as a very low-end starting first basement. I think I have Boar and Alonzo ahead of him. Not smoke. I'm the only one with smoke ahead. Yeah, I don't have smoke ahead. All right. So pool holes is...

Smoke just has the long. track record of not being as good. All right. So he's in that mix. And is this the start of something for Jackie Bradley? Two home runs in his last four games. He only had three hits in his previous six games. But he homered yesterday.

Everybody homered yesterday for the Red Sox. Even Bogarts. Bradley's 82% owned. I wouldn't mind picking him up if it's obviously shallow leagues. He should be universally owned. I started Bradley. He was just like, come on. I think there might be something here.

So far, so good. He's going to get hot at some point, but his 82 versus Bregman's 86% ownership, I would rather own Bregman if I was given that choice. Oh, I'd definitely rather own Bradley. I need more outfield spots, too. You need more outfielders? I need more outfield spots to fill, and I think he's a better hitter. What does that mean?

You need... You have five outfield spots plus an infield. So you have too many outfielders. No, no, no. I'm saying you just have more outfield spots to fill, so I'm more likely to draft a guy or, But if you've been playing the waiver wire, like I...

There are some five outfielder leagues where I can honestly say I need outfield help with the three outfielder leagues which I imagine are the only leagues at 82% of the same way about corner infield though. All right, just real quick on this, more streaking outfielders. Melkei Cabrera had three more hits. Jorge Bonafacio went two for three with a double and a strikeout.

Steven Souza ride it while he's hot. He homered yesterday. Last six games before that, he batted 478 with three home runs. so that's now four home runs in his last seven games, and Hunter Renfro doubled against the Cubs. These are all players we talked about yesterday. Matt Holiday went double-dong,

Devin Marrero, Red Sox's third baseman, who's going to platoon with Sandoval. He went double-dong. And rotation stuff here. Sunny Gray, ew. Nine hits and seven runs, and all fell apart for him in the fifth. He only had five swinging strikes.

Such a letdown. Him and Tyler Anderson, man. Yeah, it's bad. Bummer dudes. The Indians are good. So let's not bury him too much. It's a tough matchup. I feel like last week was the prime time to sell on Sunny Gray.

We did it, boy. We did. For another done. I forgot we had done it. Jeff Savarja. Man, our ER and it's already messed up again. We did it before that start. But here's the thing about Gray.

His previous two starts, each of them, had a higher swinging strike total than any start he had last. year. So I still think he is trending the right direction, like Chris was saying. Yeah, I don't know that he's, I'm not saying he's bad. He's 93% owned. I'm not dropping Sunny Yeah, he should be universally owned still. Jay Hap came back through four endings. Let's wait a little while. Lossie was a lot better for Hap. Oh, was okay, that's good. He was on the deal with an elbow injury. Justin Verlander, I wish I had seen more. I watched him throw three or four innings.

Just like, I don't know. I guess he got a little bit better as the game went on. But Verlander got hit kind of hard. He had a couple of really loud outs. They only struck out five royals, so that's now 14 strikeouts in his last 19 and two-thirds over three starts. 13 swinging strikes last night, though, and 116 pitches, so the rate's not quite as good as it looks. But his velocity really is up this year. It's weird. I mean, he was throwing about 95 in the first two innings. He usually gets faster.

Yeah, he averaged 95.7. Last night. All right, so Verlander still, like, we're cool with him. Top 10 starting pitcher. Samarja struggled against the national. Did he struggle with singles? Because that's kind of what the line makes it look like. Nine hits.

One home run, maybe? I don't think he allowed a home run. Let me pull it up. The game log wasn't, hadn't updated yet. I think you're right. I think he gave up three home runs in his most, in his tough matchup. Yeah, but I mean, the fact he had more than a strike upper inning again and zero walks again, like I still. I love this podcast.

A guy can give up, only six swinging strikes, though. A guy can give up three runs and nine hits and four innings, but, you know. No walks five strikers. He allowed one of those... Oh, no. It's still not updated. It's just more than a strikeout per inning doesn't really apply when you give up nine hits and four. You say that, but I still like it.

It's true. I still like to see it. He's facing twice as many batters as you would normally expect or something like that. But he could have had two strikeouts and then... Sure. Five is better than two. All right, let's do rankings. Samarja Gonzalez. Samarja Sunny Gray, Gio Gonzalez.

Rank him. Samarja Gray Gonzalez Yes Joe Gonzalez to me is He's fine If you can't If you haven't already Like please sell

Joe Gonzalez That might be too late to sell He's got a 303 ERA And he's 4 and 1 His whip is horrendous I don't even know if people look at whip They look at ERA They should look at WISH

Especially when it's walk inspired Like his is He's got 35 walks in 68 and a 30 He walks three batters every start now Geo Gonzalez Other rotation members Michael Waka Tenta Maeda, Jose Barrios.

They all struggled yesterday. Although I think Maeda, really, it was just the first inning. And then he looked pretty good after that from what I saw. Burrios struggled against Houston. And Yvonne Nova had a very Yvonne Nova start. Honestly, the thing with Nova in the points leagues is, does he get a winner or a loss? It's like, because you know you're getting innings and no strikeouts. The only way he's going to give you a ton of points is if he gets a win, he's not going to do it through strikeouts.

But he doesn't get blown up either. Right. He's not giving you those Tyler Anderson starts. You got $2.92 already. And by the way, Jose Berrios, it was encouraging that in a game where he didn't have the command in a game where his command was much like it was last year, he didn't get blown out either. Paul Molitor actually said he was proud of him because of that. What do you think about Waka, guys?

So, well, he had gotten worse every season as a starting pitcher, but still was pretty good for three years. And then was terrible last year. And now all of a sudden Waka's got a 399 ERA. But it's all because of the last two stars, which are both against the Dodgers, who are one of the hottest teams in baseball. So what do you think about Michael Waka right now? I think he's a mid-3 ZRA guy. Okay, I'll take that.

Yeah, I think he's definitely worth outing. In this pitching landscape especially. All right, news and notes. Pablo Sandoval, off the D.L. Matt Andres left with a groin injury, I believe. Miguel Sino had an illness. Joe Musgroves on the D.L. He might miss only one start.

David Paulino will start today. Anyone care? David Paulino? He's a prospect who was great last year in the minors, but I don't think he was so good, has been so good this year. I'm just, like I'd rather... I'm waiting for Francis Martis has to turn it around in the miners, but he feels like the guy I'm waiting for in Houston still. Not rushing to pick up Polina, but keeping an eye on him. Francisco Liriano should be back Friday against the Yankees. Any interest?

Not in starting him, but I'll definitely... I've got him stashed in a couple places. I presented you with DeShields and Worth because I didn't want to drop Liriano. I want to see how that Friday start goes now that we have him in that 16-team league. D.D.I. Gorgias was hit by a pitch on the hand. X-rays were negative. Jacoby Ellsbury making progress from his concussion and his neck injury. I'm not sure if I mentioned the Adam Jones thing, but he has a sore hip in his missed four straight games. Taiwan Walker should start on Sunday.

Quit Merrifield has a 15-game hitting streak. Does anybody care? I care because he's less than 10% owned, or at least he was yesterday, and that should probably be more... I mean, on the one hand, I'd rather own Jed Lowry, and I know he's less than 50% owned, but Whitmerfield needs to be more owned than he is, just to ride the high hand. Mike Napoli sat for the second straight game with back stiffness. Ben Zobris is having trouble hitting from the right side because of a wrist injury, but it's improving. So you might want to sit Zobrist in daily leagues if he's facing a lefty.

and Adam Frazier has sat two straight games, and he's in a slump right now. I'd rather be starting Maryfield than Frazier right now. Because I don't think Frazier's upside is, like, he's hollow batting average guy. All right, let's grade some trades from Paul. Give up Michael Waka, get Stephen Mats. I think that's a B minus. Like I just said I like Waka, but ultimately he's probably somewhat replaceable. But Mats, if he hits his upside, could be very good.

He could be a top 20 pitcher. Yeah, I can go with that. This is from Matthew, 10-team points league. Give up McCullors and Mania. McCullors and Mania get Cluber and Nova. McCullors and Mania for Cluber and Nova. I know Cluber's the one coming off the D.L Stint, but I think just for...

I still think he's significantly safer than McCullors over the course of a full season. So a good chance to make this swap. I'll give it a B. I was thinking B plus. And actually we were talking about McCullors in the office yesterday and whether we think there's the chance for an innings limit. We haven't really discussed it, but there's probably a chance.

I don't. Only through like 89 last season, his career highs 157. He's never thrown more than 104 before that. I could see it being a situation where in the second half, they like bring in a six starter to skip starts here and there. But, I mean, the Astros are going to the playoffs. They're not going to shut down McCulloch. No, but I'm saying if you're talking about a head-to-head points league,

Kluber should have a pretty big advantage rest of season. Yeah, sure. Okay. Steve in Long Island, I was offered Jose Kentana and Oduble Herrera in a 14-te-to-head points league. Get Kentana and Oduble. Give up Kenta Maeda and Paraza. Give up Maeda and Paraza.

Get Kintana and Oduble Herrera. We don't get to look at it. You don't have them in the notes anymore, right? So I just got to go off. What the listeners are doing, give up Maeda and Paraza, get Kentana and Oduble Herrera. They can zone out, though. Yeah, I think that's a C.

I feel like the best player is on the second side of that deal, right? The pitcher, who isn't Maida? Kentana. Kentana. Yes, yes. Kentana is clearly the best player in that deal, so I give it a B-plus. And finally, this is from Isaac, 12-team. head-to-head league, give up David Price, get Matt Carpenter.

He currently has Starlin Castro and Devin Travis playing second base. Carpenter would be an upgrade. So, David Price for Carpenter. Carpenter would be a very, very big upgrade. Well, not so far. I mean, yeah, so far. Castro's been better than better. But we know that's not real.

Yeah, no, I mean, it's definitely an upgrade. I think Price is too much to give up. I waited all season for a pitcher who would be something in the neighborhood of reliable or at least have a chance of that. I think with the way Price's velocity was spiking first start back, I feel pretty confident in him right now, and I wouldn't want to sell him. I think it's a good trade. Ryan traded Corey Dickerson for Tanaka. Ryan Blicker. Do you think that's a good trade?

Give up Dickerson for Tanaka? Yes. C to C plus. James wants to know if we should all pick up new. Tigers pitching prospect, Donald C-O-F-F-F-E. I don't know. C-O-V-E-F-E. Did you miss this? Is this a joke?

Yes. What is it? You'll hear about it. What is it? No comment. Did I just say something that I have to bleep? Not bleep, no. Just usually not territory we tread on.

What is this? You don't know, Scott, do you? I don't. I'm not as plugged into the internet memes as Chris is. Oh. Oh, come on. No, I got to, ah. You got to cut it out?

I might have to cut that out. Cut it out. No, I'm not going to cut it out. I'm just going to say that I truly had no idea what I was quoting. Look, it's nothing. It's nothing. It's really nothing. Was it worse than what I said?

It's just a, everyone makes typos. It was a typo. It was a typo. So, thank you for that question. I didn't screen the email before I read it. And have a great day, everybody. Go watch a long came Polly.