06/05: Worryometer, Rookie Watch, Tue. Recap (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
00:00Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.One one pitch.Basketball pulled and fast.Alvarez and twilight.Get a fantasy question.Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com.Get ready to win your league.Where fantasy.
00:20Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris.Pedro Severino, triple dongs.Two other players, double dong last night.Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today.We're going to recap all the Tuesday action.and try to grade some trades as well.Your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.I'm Adam Azer.
00:39Chris Towers is back after ditching me yesterday.What's up with that, Chris?I don't think I ditched.Yeah.I had a doctor's appointment that I had been putting off for...In quotes.Like a month.I think my original appointment was like May 10th.
00:59And so I finally reached the pointwhere I would have either had to goor find a new doc.Are you okay?Are you okay?Yeah, yeah.It was just, you know,just go to the doctor sometime.
01:12Sure, fair enough.Do you, though?When it's only a guy with Chris on this show, of course.So I should, too?I mean, I'm not a doctor.You can't tell me that I should?I can't answer that question.Unfortunately.
01:27I can.You should.Yes, you should.Okay.Andrew McCutcheon's out for the season.Jay Bruce.Oh, I forgot.He doubled on.
01:33Two. That's three doubles and one triple dong from last night. How about that? We'll talk aboutthe Philly situation who might be replacing Andrew McCutcheon and who you could add as a replacementif you need an outfielder. It is, of course, Wariometer Wednesday, and Paul DeYoung is in abrutal slump right now. He'll be on. He's three for his last 40. We'll talk about him. We'lltalk about Blake Snell, Noah Cindergard, Chris Paddock, Max Fried, and a lot more. Let's get tothe Tuesday standouts. Let's start with page.Severeina. Baltimore's catcher, 7% owned.Yesterday he was the number 21 catcher in fantasy.
02:11Now he is the number 16 catcher in fantasy.It wasn't that big of a jump.He doesn't play that much, but he actually had an 835 OPS on Tuesday morning,and now it's a 937 OPS.He's having a pretty good year.He doesn't play as much as a lot of regular catchers,but he does play more than a year.He plays more than any Baltimore catcher.
02:36I'll say that.Give me your take on Pedro Severino.He's a catcher who's doing stuff.He hit three home runs last night,and I didn't notice until I read the notes this morning.You kidding.And he's kind of doing stuff.Like, he's fine.
02:54He does not play anywhere close to every day,which catchers don't,but he doesn't play as much as the normal catcher.He's played three starts in the last week, I think.what I said in the Waverwire column after your notesalerted me to the fact that he had three home runswas at the very least you could speculate on him in a two catcher leaguebut I don't think you're like picking him up thinking okay I found my second
03:17catcher in a two catcher league I do want to point out one I think he's more like a sixlike he was ranked 16th he's ranked 16th now he was 21st before I think that's anokay range for him but that also means that he could be a week away from being the 30thFrank Catcher. That's just kind of the deal with that position. But most importantly, I do want topoint out that there was a bit of a discussion last night. Scott White was getting somecriticism for not being prepared for podcasts. And I think that was a little unfair. And I justwant to point out that Heath is usually the one doing the criticism. And here we are. Did Ididn't even know. Pager Severino hit three home run. Turnabout's only fair play, Heath.
04:00Yeah. I criticize Scott for not knowing about the segment.that we do every single week.No need to defend yourself.But yeah, I definitely should have known that Pedro,but I did know it before the show started.No, you didn't.Yeah.Like, literally, I wrote this before the show started,
04:15so obviously I knew it.But five seconds before the show started, basically.Right.I don't need more than five secondsto process Pedro Severino.Fair enough.Let's read that critical tweet.Oh, is it no longer available?
04:29I didn't.I didn't send any critical tweets last night.Not yours.No, no, no.I wasn't even drinking this.There's no chance it was me.The guy who was ripping us.It was your burner account.
04:37It was really funny.I don't think it's available anymore.He was like, don't listen to the CBS Fantasy Baseball podcast.They are wrong all the time.Go somewhere else.And we are wrong all the time.Everyone that talks about this sport is wrong all the time.That's the way this job works.
04:52Not a bad point.Of course, I wrote, this is what happens when two guys on our show say that Butterfinger is good.So I blame Chris and Scott.Okay.Excuse me.Excuse me.Three of the four people on this show think.Old Town Road is bad.
05:04So that's really what he's talking about.It's definitively bad.In fact,we're taking our family to Orlando,and there is a place there called Old Town that has like some...Probably some roads.Probably.Yeah.
05:17Like arcade stuff and the car shows,and it's a fun,cheap thing to do when you're not spending $5 million everywhere else.And I was like,I don't know.They're probably going to be playing that song.I don't think I want to go.All right, guys.
05:30So this is actually,this is why people don't like our show.So Pedro Strope is my next standout, 49% owned.I love it.I mean, he comes off the IL, first appearance in right around a month,and he gets his save for the Cubs.Is this a Hector Nero situation where, hey, we're not sure if he's been closer,but it turns out he's pretty much the closer,
05:50and Hector Neras is now owned in like 85% of leagues.Pedro Strop is 49% owned.Does Pedro Strope deserve to be getting close to that 80% range?It's hard to say after one outing,but it's a very good sign for Pedro Strope.It was a three-run game.I don't know how much.He didn't even strike anybody out.
06:15I actually don't know how much we can take away from it.I'm trying to see who was coming up for the Rockies.It was something like the top of the line up.He's like almost every other closer.He's must own in a categories league,and you probably don't need him in a points league.Yeah, but see, that's the third.thing, like, if he's the closer for the Cubs, then you do need him in a points league.
06:39You know?If he's going to get 85% of the saves for the Cubs, then you need him in a points league.Maybe.Like, if you're a Luke Jackson owner, there's a good chance Craig Kimbril is going to get signedby the, by the Bra.There's a decent chance to get signed by the Cubs, I guess.But, you know, if you are nervous about your closer situation, keep an eye on Pedro Stroke.My next standout, my last one, I'll turn it over to you guys.
07:02Then we'll talk about McCutcheon in just a bit.is Pablo Lopez just so much inconsistency, but when he's good, he's really good.This was at Milwaukee.The Mighty Marlins won 16 to nothing.Lopez six shutout innings with seven strikeouts.He still has a 452 ERA, but I'm sure there's a lot of stuff we like about Pablo Lopez,and he's only 38% owned, made his first of two starts this week.He gets Pittsburgh next week.
07:28Who's excited about Pablo Lopez?Gonna take my horse to the old tower.No, no, it's awful.You know that I did put Pablo Cito in the waiver wire column.He is so much fun to watch.Control has been very good this year.The ground ball rate's good.The strikeouts are okay.
07:49The peripherals are a little bit mixed on him.I don't think he has like Caleb Smith breakout or Lucas G. Alito breakout coming,but I do think he should be owned in more than 32% of leagues.And I own him in a couple of 12-team points leagues.He's Sorderman one this week.So, yeah, he's definitely under-owned.Yeah, I think he's going to be likely a sub-4 ERA guy moving forward with pretty good strikeoutnumbers, and that's going to, I mean, you're probably not going to get many wins.
08:16That's true of everyone on the Marlins, so that limits the ceiling.But I think he can be a top 60 or top 50 type of starting pitcher moving forward.The Marlins do not have the worst record in baseball.It should be noted.The Orioles do.Would you rather have Lopez or actually at a single.I had to make yesterday, Zach Plyzac.Lopez. Yeah, Lopez.
08:40Okay, I made the other decision.Plezac's still only 28%.Like, if you started Devin Smelter or Chase Andersonin their two start weeks, you drop them and you pick up Lopez orPleasac, I'd say, right? Make that swap?Oh, yeah. Yeah.Would you rather have Pablo Lopez or Nick Povetta?Lopez.
09:03Povetta did actually make some interesting changes.in this one start, but it was only one start.He actually, when he was behind in the count, in the count, he,through his fastball less than 50% of the time, which is,it's usually around 70% fastball usage when he's behind in the count.So that's a promising sign.I think they're very similar pit.I think Pavetta probably has a little more upside.
09:29Are you going to pick one?I just said Pavetta has a little more upside.Okay.That doesn't always mean that's the guy you go with.No.No. No.No. Right? It doesn't.Yeah.
09:42Okay. No.Standouts for you guys? Who you got?There were a lot last night.Like I felt like there were a lot of very important happenings in baseball.I'll start with Garrett Cooper, who had just a monster night at the play, and has actuallybeen very good since the Marlins called him back up.And I just, I wrote about it today.I think it's interesting because he was.
10:05so good at AAA, his minor league track record, very good.He's had a lot of injury problems, has a pretty good bat at ball profile, and makes enoughcontact.I think he's interesting as a corner infielder, and he's just 11% out.I have a segment called Miami now has three hitters with an OPS over 800, and Gary Cooper'sone of them.Harold Ramirez is another one.He's batting 370 with a 109 ISO.
10:32One home run, no steals in 19 games for Harold Ramirez.I get mad every time I see Harold Ramirez's name in a box score because I see H. Ramirezand I think, yes, the Marlins brought Hanley back.This is going to be so much fun.No, they haven't brought Hanley back.Harold Ramirez hit well in AAA this year.He was a former top 100 prospect.He's got a little speed.
10:54But I don't think there's enough power there to be more than an animal only guy.I do think Jorge Alfaro is a top 12 fantasy catcher in like a Mike Zunino.kind of way, like the good year, Mike Zunino.And I do think Gary Cooper is interesting.You know, not in anything more than like a five outfielder league.I'm not even sure in like a 12-team league you should be adding him.But anything deeper than that, I do think there's pretty good contact skills and enough, pal.Would you look at that graphic?
11:27Fishing for offense with a question mark.I mean, this is strong stuff.Our video team's really bringing it lately.Please watch our video, by the way.Go to YouTube.YouTube.YouTube.com.Search for CBS Sports, and you'll find our full-length shows.
11:41You can also see VODs on our website.www.w.com.Okay, so, yeah, the three Marlins with an OPS over 800 are Garrett Cooper,Harold Ramirez, and Jorge Alfaro.And Cooper and Ramirez are widely available.Alfaro, I think, is 59% owned.And I think we've basically summed up the hitting stallions for today.And then there was another.
12:04hitter who had a pretty good game, but I did not realize how incredibly hot he had been.Ramon Loriano, who has been spectacular with the glove and the arm most of the year.But it kind of looks like his bats starting to catch up a little bit.He homered and stole a base on Tuesday.He's got a 15-game hitting streak that includes 12 extra base hits.Yes.And he's young enough and prospecty enough at 27% owned, at the very least, he should be owned in allfive alpha.
12:35But he was terrible before this streak.You know, the article that I read, the AP Recap said he had a 17 game hitting streak,and I didn't think that was true.So he thank you for confirming it is in fact a 15 game.It might be 16.Maybe we're both wrong.I think it's 15.I think it's 15.
12:51But yeah, no, it's good.And it's three home runs in his last five or six games.A ton of doubles for Luriano.So would you rather have Jay Bruce or Ramon Luriano?Luriano.Really?I think I'dYeah, I think I'd rather have
13:09What you...And I, like, if you just lookat Lurianowhat he's done in the major league so far,he's played 108 games.He's got a 274 averagewith 13 home runs and 12 steals.Yeah, I suppose if you need steals.
13:26How, how valuable is Kevin Kiermaier?Is he better than Kevin Kierremer?I don't, I don't,I think that there's, we haven't seen him fail as much as Kevin Kiermire, right?I don't think Kevin Kiermire has failed that much.He just hasn't been able to stay.He has failed to stay healthy for sure, but.He's in nothing.
13:44He, um, he's, he's a pretty good player.He's a jag.Well, I mean, when you factor in his defense, he's a, he's a very good player.No, no.I mean, for fantasy, like, if you look at it's like 150 game pace and he never plays 150games, but he's been like a 2020 guy, I think.Right, but it's like the least impact.I'm just not sure Loriano has much more upside.
14:03than that.Luriano had a 630 OPS before this hitting streak, you know, or 633 OPS for the hitting streak.He had an 830 OPS last year.Okay, 27% own.Chris, I'm not going to let you do a standout.Sorry, we have time to talk about other players.We'll get to them later.Smooth transition.
14:26Injuries, news and notes.Andrew McCutcheon out for the season with a torn ACL.Pretty interesting where he ranked at the end of his.season.14th in points at outfield, 34th in Roto.But just leading off for a great lineup,getting on base all the time,able to compensate for a low batting average,
14:45only two steals.So,you know,a good year for him in points leagues in Roto leagueswhere OVP doesn't count,you know,he was fine.So Jay Bruce-
14:55It's tough.It's tough.He was a very useful player.He was someone you didn't really have to think aboutthat's true.Sitting at any point.Jay Bruce.is he started yesterday.
15:07He sat against the lefty.He started against the rightyand his two games of Philadelphia.If you take a look at our video here,you've got sort of what's going on with the Phillies.Adam Haisley got called up.Scott Kingery.He can play the outfield.
15:21He played third base yesterday.Nick Williams was sent to AAA,and Roman Quinn is on the IL with a groin injury.So internally, what do you see the Phillies doing nowwith McCutcheon out for this season?I would think Scott Kingery plays pretty much every day somewhere.And he pretty much has been, I think, since coming back from the DL.He's capable of playing short, second, third, outfield.
15:49Hazley, from what I've been able to gather reading scanning reports,he's kind of like a fringy defensive center fielder,so not necessarily an upgrade over Kingery,the conferreded infielder.and I don't know if he has either enough pop or enough speed to really matter much for fantasy.I would wager that it's more likely that he is back in the minor leagues than he is fantasy relevant.Yeah, the one thing I will say, and we've talked about this a lot with prospects who come up,who have a really good contact profile, and he, you know, 154 strikeouts in 223 games,
16:29career 293 hitter in the minors.I think you can probably say that's a good contact profile.Those guys tend to outperform expectations as far as power,but I still think you're probably looking at more of like an 18 to 20homer guy over the course of a full season at his peak.And that just doesn't sound all that interesting.I think Kingery has more potential because he has the potential to be a power speed back.Okay, not so interested in Haisley.
16:57interested in Kingery, he's 39%owned. Andwho's a better guy to speculate onright now? Kingery or Loriano?I think Kingery. I think he has a more interesting profile for fans.Heathside. Yeah, I mean,Loreano'sprobably been better over the last two years.
17:21But Kingery does have a lot more eligibility.Kingery's been better this season. I mean, it's been limited, but it's 92plate appearances now, but 944 OPS.And, you know, a lot of the batted ball data does back it up at least to a certain extent.You know, 291 expected batting average, 461 expected slug.That'll definitely play.And he's a guy who, you know, might have 25 to 30 steal potential.Okay.
17:47Trade targets that the Phillies could consider, do you think maybe that they bring in an outfielder?I think Jim Bowden gave us some trade targets.Former GM who works for CBS Sports.He's on HQ all the time.Make sure you're watching HQ.Kevin Pilar,Gerard Dyson, Yassil Pui.That'd be fun.
18:07Billy Hamilton,Manuel Margo,Tony Kemp, Michael Taylor,and Delano to Shieldswho started yesterday and stole a base.Maybe he's being showcased a little bit.So you know what?We're going to have to do fantasy analysis here.
18:19Just keep an eyesome of these guys might be on the move.The Phillies certainly could add an outfielderand they probably need to at this point.Miguel Cabrera is going to DH exclusivelydue to some,some changes in his kneeand he DH yesterday
18:32and hit a grand slam off Blake Snell.Brian Dozier left after being hit by a pitch on the arm.John Carlos Stanton hit in a simulated game.The Yankees apparently like Dallas Keikle.Would that be a good or a bad landing spot for Dallas Keikle?I think it'd be fine.Fine.A lot of wins.
18:50Not good.Not the greatest park, butbeing a ground ball pitcher.Right in the middle of the possible option.Buster Posey could be back today.The Astros sent Quint.Corbin Martin to AAA.Framberra Valdez is going to replace him in the Houston rotation.
19:04Your interest level in Framber Valdez.Six in the interestometer.How does that correlate to the addometer?Atometer.That would be like a three on the adometer.I'm interested, like double of what the adometer would be.So Plizac or Valdez?I think Plesaq.
19:29I think so, yeah.Okay, please that can thank you.But I'd rather have Valdez than Smelzer.Right.Yeah, Smelzer was pitching well yesterday, and I was kind of annoyedbecause I just don't want to have to deal with picking him upbecause I didn't really believe in him.And then he gave up four home runs, and I was pretty happy.
19:44He gave up, I think, three more home runs.I was happy.Gregory Polanco has sat two straight gamesand five of Pittsburgh's last 11 games.So that is certainly something to keep an eye on.With Gregory Polanco, it's getting harder and harder to be patient with him.Mets News, Jeff McNeil's off the IL.Smith pinch hit yesterday. He's not 100% healthy yet, but hopefully back in the lineup today.
20:04And Robinson Canoe could be back any day. And I do think we got a serious log jam there with the wayDominic Smith was playing. Now McNeil let off yesterday. Todd Frazier's been good. So Canoe should be back soon.We'll see what the Mets decide to do. Mickey Calloway apologized. Oh, that was so funny. I was watchingthat game. And they took out Noah Cindergarde and Noah Cindergarde cursed like seven times.And the cameras were just like, yeah, we know he's going to be dropping.the F word here, and we'll just let it go.And the move backfire.They may have lost the game because of it.
20:35Mickey Calloway apologized for it,and his team seemed to actually sort of rally around him for doing that.Adam Jones...I mean, what?They gave up six runs in the 10th inning.Yeah, but they were...It's hard to...They blew the lead in that inning.
20:49Probably true.I think that's true.I think that's true.The bullpen pitched really well until the 10th inning.Not when they took...No, in that inning, the run scored right after they took...Cinderguard out.Like he left with a runner on base.
21:03They took him out after 103 pitches, I believe,and two outs in the inning.They bring in a reliever, tie game.So that, you know, they probably lost because of that move.Adam Jones, he was pitching.He's on the Worryometer.Adam Jones left with hamstring tightness.Wade Davis should be back soon.
21:21Alex Reyes has yet to be clear to swing a bat,but he is still expected to start as a pitcher.Maybe as soon as this weekend, Alex Reyes.Mitch Morland could be back this weekand Hunter Dozier could be back in about a weekas Hunter Dozier is on the injured list.Worryometer Wednesday.That's coming up right after this break here
21:40on fantasy baseball today.We'll be right back.Such worry words here on fantasy baseball today,especially on Wednesdays.It's Worryometer Wednesday.I got five players, four of them pitchers.Here we go.Zero to 10.
21:51Zero.Not worried at all.No problem.10?Oh, huge problem.Be very concerned.Paul DeYoung is first.up leading off on the Wariometer.
22:02He is three for his last 40with five walks to 12strikeouts. That's not so bad, butno extra base hits.Yikes. 283 OPS in his last11 games before going 1 for 4yesterday. Zero to 10 on Paul DeYoung.I don't know what...
22:21I don't think anybody else should be worried about himbecause no one else thought he was actually as good as he was.I'll put him as a 3because I did move him into my top nine short stops.And I've got a little bit of concern that he falls back into that 14 or 15 range.But like the swinging strike rate really has,it's not like he just started swinging and missing a bunch.I mean,
22:43his strikeout rate is up to 25% during this stretch,which is closer to where it had been before the start of this season.And I think,but the swinging strike rate's below where it's ever been.Okay.Which is also weird.During this stretch.Yeah.
22:579.7.He's not striking out that much, I mean, for a crazy slump.No, he's not doing anything else.No, it's been a bad stretch.I don't know why.Paul the Young is now 10th in points, 14th in Roto at shortstop.What's so weird about Paul the Young is that like, he's supposed to be bad in points and good in Roto, but he's walking so much this year.Well, like what's really weird, and he's had some luck.
23:28in terms of how many runs he's scored,and that's because he's not gotten on basefor the last two weeks kind of changed.But what's really weird is one of my reasonsfor liking Paul DeYoung coming into this yearis because he's hitting third in that lineupbehind Carpenter and Goldschmidt.He's got 26 RBIs with like an 850 OPS,
23:47hitting third behind Carpardt.It doesn't make any sense.Well, it does when you consider how disappointing Carpenterand Gulchman have been, I guess.Does he he bets third or he bets second?Yeah, I think you're right.He bets third, right?Both.
23:58Yeah, last four games batting second, before that batting pretty much third.All right, so did you give a number, Chris?No, I would say three for the general population, six for Heath.I don't think he's taking like a huge step forward.I think most of his bad ball metrics suggest he's pretty close to who he's been.And now that the strikeout rate's regressing a little bit,I think my expectation for him moving forward is he'll be the guy he's been the last coupleseason, and that's probably someone
24:30in the 12 to 15 range of shortstopmoving forward. So now that one of themis hot, one of them is cold, would you rather have Corey Seegeror Paul DeYoung?I will stick with the Young for now.Yeah, I think I would rather have the Young still.Okay, Glaber Torres or Paul the Young?Glabre. DeYoung.
24:49Glabre still has games against the Orioles left.Not that many. Blake Snell is next up on the Worryometer.Six runs in four and a third.Okay. Not even a top.30 starting. Zero, Chris?Um,if you were drafting him as one of thesix or seven best pitchers in
25:08fantasy, you should be a little worriedbecause he's not been that.But I think he'll be fine moving forward. Yeah, I think he's going to belike a low 3 ZRA guy.Yeah, I just want to say...Two, three. Pretty much. Blake Snellnever goes more than six. It rarely goesmore than six sittings. He has two-star
25:28all year of more than six innings, no more than 104 pitches in any start.So that is interesting.So if you were redrafting today, when would you take Blake Snell knowing that, like, best case scenario is probably like a 185 inning pace?10?Five.Noah Cinderguard.Look, it wasn't a bad start.He gave up three runs in six and two thirds.
25:56One of them with the bullpen gave up, as we already mentioned.But the strikeouts have been down lately.So he had a 28, well, let's do some math.32 strikeouts now in 39 innings in his last six starts.That's weird.Zero to 10 on Cinderguard.I'm roughly this.I'm three, probably.
26:22Two.Okay.Maybe three.Yeah.I have some actual concern about Cindergarde, but not much.All right.Cinderguard or.Zach Grinky?
26:36Grinky pretty easily.Okay, Cindergarde or Junjin Ryu?Jeng Riu is the toughest pitcherto answer any question about right nowbecause what's the argument against him at this point?Like on a purring basis,he's been the best pitcher in baseball for well over a year.Today is my weekly rankings update day
27:01and I have to each week decide,okay, how high am I going to move Riu now?and I think I've settled on 12th at starting.Yeah, like what would be the possible case against him being a top 12 pitcher?I don't feel like that's right.No, I've got a case.He has not thrown more than 126 innings since 2014.Sure.
27:22And the strikeouts are down for Ryu now, too.He had 17 ground balls to three fly balls yesterday, but only two strikeouts.I don't think the strikeouts might not be down that much.because he has a 0.8 whip.What do you mean?Yeah, his K percentage is down slightly.He's facing few...Because he's been so good,
27:44he's facing fewer batters per inning,which lowers the K per nine.His strikeout rates down slightly,but it's still well above average.Okay, but it's getting worse, I think.Like, he was striking out a lot more guys in April,and now in May and into the first start of June,Ryu not...
28:00Kind of going back to...Before last season, he wasn't really a strikeout per inning guy.You know, Riu seems to...be back to that mode.I feel like it's getting worse.I could make the argument for him as high.Like the guys that I have him right behind that I don't necessarily,I don't think I can put him ahead of Grinkey.
28:20Bauer and Strasbourg I'm really struggling with.Yeah.Why over Strasbourg?I mean,Strasbourg's been great.Because he's been a lot better.A lot better.And Strasbourg was bad again last night.
28:35No.Strasbourg was bad last night.He had not been bad for a really long time.He was a top five starting pitcher going into last night.Riu's been better.Actually, not that much better.Riu is third in points and Strasbourg is fourth in points.Now, it is a pretty big gap.
28:50It's 21 points different.But I just want to bring that up.Like, Strasbourg got off to a bad start,and he's actually one spot behind Junj and Riu in points.Strasbourg's probably made three more starts or two more starts.Oh, you know what?That was going into Yos.Yesterday. I apologize. That was going into yesterday.
29:08Yeah, I would imagine Strasbourg's made at least two more starts because Riu did have that IL stint.Oh, he's, I think innings are the only concern with him.60 points better than Strasbourg. But Strasbourg is still the number four starting pitcher in fantasy.Justin Verlander is the only guy ahead of Rue. All right, let's move on, guys. Let's move on.Chris Paddock on the Worryometer, Chris Paddock, three of his last four starts pretty bad.I don't think, no matter what happens this weekend, if he pitches this weekend, you know, sometimes they move the rotation around.I'm not going to start him at Colorado next week, but zero to ten on Chris Paddock.Six?
29:43Like this is really three of his last four starts that have been subpar if the expectationhe's a is that he's a near ace.So I think as short as his track record is, his track record's dominant no matter where he'spitched, but as short as that track record is, three out of four subpar starts is enoughto get me worrying a little bit.It's not just subpar.Yeah, they're really bad.Yeah, I think it's, I think it's, I think it's,
30:08it's more a sign that he's not quite an ace yet.You know, even on a perning basis, which was what we might have hoped for.And I think, you know, a lot of us, myself included, I think I expected.And so that's a disappointment.I think you're worried.You're like a seven if you thought, man, this guy's going to be, you know, StephenStrasbourg level good when he's starting.That's probably not going to be.
30:34Like, I think the guys you compare him to now,that I had him ahead of all of them last week.And that was before his last two starts.Brandon Woodruff, Lucas Gialito, Mike Soroka.And I think I'd have to put him behind all those guys.Well, for sure.I think Gialito for me would be, yeah.Yeah, Paddock, because Gialito goes like seven, eight innings.
31:03It seems like every start, Paddock, you just really can't get that.But again, we don't, like, Gialito has been phenomenal, and I've, most of my worries about him are gone.But we don't, it's not like we have a longer history of Lucas Gialito being good than Chris Paddock.We've got much longer track record of pitching, but most of that he was bad.But he's been better this season.Yes.Paddock, maybe you could say regression was coming.I would say the schedule got really tough.
31:31His bad starts have been at the Dodgers, at the Yankees, home against the Phillies.and he still has a 2907 ERAand he'll either be facing Washington this weekendor if they bump himan extra day, which they do,he'll have San Francisco on the roadin his next start, which would be preferable.Last guy on the Woreometer is Max Freed.
31:50He now is a 368 ERA.This is two bad starts in a row.He's settled in after giving up five runs,I think, in the first two innings,but yeah, it's a little worrisome.Max Freed zero to 10.I never moved Freed higher than40 in my rankings.
32:09And so maybe that's why I don't feel as worried about him.But the thing that does concern me is, as recently as like six weeks ago, the Braves thought of him as their most likely long reliever.And so I don't know that it takes very many struggles.They've got like 18 arms in AAA that are ready to come take a shot at the majors.I don't, I don't know that his rotation spot is secure.I'll say five.And he is a guy who hasn't exactly thrown a ton of anything.It looks like 128 is his high for a season.
32:41He's coming off 111 last year.So it's hard to say exactly how much longer he's going to go.I think he's probably more in the Pablo Lopez category.Max Fried.Okay.All right, that's the Wariometer.Let's take another break here on fantasy baseball today.When we come back, a lot of hitters.
33:02We're talking about a lot of hitters coming up.Guys like Yasil Puege and Matt Carpenter who homered yesterday.Francisco Lindor and Frommel-Raeus,who homebored twice yesterday.Three outfielders, well, four outfielers,if you include Ramon Luriano,we already talked about him,that you might want to consider adding right now.
33:18That's coming up after this break on fantasy baseball today.Let's check in on some of the youngstersaround Major League Baseballin a segment I'd like to callchecking in on the youngsters.Chris, you're young.Do you want to lead this segment?You're like 24 or something?
33:33I'm 31 years old, Adam.I'm like 3.5.I'm like three years younger than Scott.You're middle-aged.I'm middle management.You know?Like, can we show some respect?I'm in my...
33:47It's a compliment, for good to say.Deep into my 30s.Yeah, okay, fine.Deep into my 30s.By the way, Chris was defending Nickelback on Twitter last night.Checking in on the youngsters, Austin Riley...Not untrue.Austin Riley, he has four walks this year.
34:03Three of them have come in the last seven games.That's cool.But he homered again.Nine homers.And I told you yesterday that he got off to the hottest start,basically for any rookie joining Trevor Story and Carlos DelgadoGodo in the like super hot rookie start with terms of home runs.And both those guys, like story, like I said,
34:23he was sort of saved by Corse Field.Delgado was terrible after his hot start.Riley just keeps on chugging.So, you know, maybe the best thing to do here is look at this group, right?there are two guys who are kind of waiver-wiring,and that would be Clint Frazier and Kevin Bissio.So we'll separate them.I think Brendan Rogers, by the way, at this point, you know,
34:47playing times uncertain.The performance hasn't been very good.He didn't even make this cut.But not saying you should completely give up on him, but, you know.Riley Senzel, Nick Senzel, since debuting on May 3rd,is the number eight second baseman in points,number nine in Roto.Eloy Jimenez has been horrible.
35:03Victor Robles, I would say,pretty dropable in pointsleagues and he's 95% ownedso he's obviously ownedin most points leagues.And Michael Chavis is super cold.Batting 233 with a389 slugging percentage
35:16and 32 strikeouts in his last28 days with onlyfive extra base hits.So, all right, we gotthe guys I want to talk about right now,Riley, Senzel,Eloy, Robles, and Chavis.Heath, want you to talk about this group
35:33as a whole, you know, who'slooking good, who's looking good,who's looking bad. What do you think going forward? Go ahead.Well, I think Austin Rileyis looking good, and I think I like Eli-Menezis looking bad.How's that? No,Nick Senzel has been
35:47really verysolid, especially considering that he's second baseeligible. And that maybe is one that'sgone under the radar. I think everyone knowsthat Riley's beenincredibly hot, and I think mostof us can agree that he's notgoing to be this good. I agree
36:04with what Scott White wrote about him.Twitter mentions do not agree with that. I agree with what Scott wrote about him and Chris did make me think of Melvin Gordon.What did he write? What did Scott write? He's the ultimate sell high. Ultimate sell high. And Chris and I three years ago called Melvin Gordon the ultimate sell high. Exact same words. And it's like it's better during these moments for your mentions to just say nothing and wait. But we're here to try to provide guidance. And I would try to provide guidance. And I would try to.to sell high on Austin Riley?Yeah, like, this is one of those things where you realize how little nuance people actuallywant because obviously Austin Riley isn't going to be as good as he has been moving forward.That should be uncontroversial.Saying he's a cell high candidate doesn't mean you're saying he's bad.
36:58It's just like Trevor's story after that first 14 games or whatever it was was a pretty goodfantasy option. He was like an 84850 OPS guy.Yeah, but again, that was really thanks to Corse Field.Michael Chavis would be a pretty bad case scenario for Austin Riley, because Chavisat one point was the number one third baseman in fantasy since his call-up, and he's beenpretty bad since then.You know, I don't, does Austin Riley go that route? It's possible with his plate discipline,I mean, it is possible that he just goes that route. I can't, he is the best sell high
37:33candidate in baseball in fantasy baseball but if you hang on to him doesn't mean you're going to have abad player i i think like an interesting question because they're both rookies it's another youngsterthat adam's not checking in on currently but i'm going to pull him into the conversation bring himi'm looking at my third base rankings and if you had austin riley and somebody else had vladjunior would you trade austin riley for in a second i would rather have gladI think I would rather have Vlad.I'm not sure why you would make that trade.Yeah, you should get something else.
38:11In a Categories league, I agree with you.Actually, I'm not sure that the-In a points league, I think Riley could just be not worth startingin a points league once this little show ends.I don't think that the Vlad owner would do that.Like, I-I mean, Vlad's been downright bad, right?in terms of fantasy production?
38:32On a scale ofAustin Riley to Eloy Jimenez,he's beenVladimir Guerrero.Right in the middle there?Which is not Eloy Jimenez.That told me absolutely nothing.I know.
38:48He's not, I don't think he's been terrible.He hasn't lived up to the expectations we put on him.And, you know, like a 771 OPS is definitely notbad and he appears to have a pretty low babb. So, no, I don't think you're too concerned aboutVladimir Guerrero. He's clearly a more talented player than Austin Riley. That should beuncontroversial. And so I hesitate to say that I would do that trade just because I don't liketrading position to position anyway. It seems like you're, you have to really win that trade.You can't just come out slightly ahead.
39:29You can do better for us and Riley.Because obviously, Vlad, there are concerns, right?He's a rookie.What about Mani Machado?Yeah, I'd take Machado.You wouldn't?We're going to have to really have a discussion about Mani Machado.I'm not sure Mani Machado is good.
39:44We've had a discussion.Yes, he's good.Okay, calm down.We've had a discussion about Machado.I would take Machado over Riley.Would you?I'm going to have to do some soul searching on my Mani Machado ranking this afternoonbecause I,
40:00Like what I said, he's obviously a good baseball player, very good baseball player.He's got a 750 OPS.He's basically been a 75770 OPS guy away from Camden Yards most of his career.He's not running.I'm not sure he's a startable third baseman over shortstop and a 12-team points leave.The stolen bases, I think, are a key.As you look back the last 365 days, he has 20,homeers, 12 steals,
40:32270 batting average.That's a starting caliber player,but once you start stripping awaysome of the stolen bases,if he's a three or four stolen base guy,and I think that's not due to ability.I think that's due to just the Padresdon't want him running.
40:47Then things start to get a little diceier.I think I would still rather have himthan Austin Riley, but I don't feel great about it.It would give me a lot of indigestion,and I would never make that trade.Maybe I was a little too quick to sayin a second.I would rather have Vlad over Riley.
41:01I think if you're trading Riley,you need to do better than Vladimir Jr.What about Jose Ramirez?Yeah, I would do it.I would.See, I'm not sure Chris is selling high at Austin Riley.Well, it's just I don't think that's selling high right now.Like, I think it's a buy low, sell high.
41:21I think you've got a chance.Yeah.I just, yeah, it is a bylaw.What are you going to try to get?Like, give me Ronald Acuna for Austin Riley.Like, you know.Yeah, I would try to do that.Ronald Acuna is in the midst of a deep slump.
41:33If you're trying to sell high, that's what you try to do.Not Jose Ramirez, who hasn't been good in five months.All right, if you want to aim higher, that's fine.But I guess I would just say if I were ranking players rest of season,maybe I'm an idiot, but I would still rank Jose Ramirez ahead of.I would too.I don't think that I would try for something with less risk.I think that's the point Scott makes in his column is it's about mitigating the risk of Austin Riley,
41:59not necessarily, just getting him off.Can we just for the rest of the show,just me throw names at Chris and put him in agony?Because this has been like my favorite part of the show.This is why I don't do rankings anymore.Like I had that choice and I decided not to do rankings.That sounds like such a great choice.I don't enjoy that process.
42:18That is a great choice.What about Bryce Harper?I'd rather have Harper.Okay.Okay.So other youngsters like should Eloy Jimenez be 91% owned?Should Victor Robles be 95% own?Yeah, you got benched by.
42:29Those are exactly the type of players that I would want to have on my benchbecause I think that either could be really good.Eloy has not shown us anything that says that other than his entire minor league pedigree.Michael Chavez, should he be 86% on?He's second base eligible, yes.Clint Frazier, 68% owned, he homered yesterday after pouring his heart out to the media.And Cabin Bigio, 55% owned, only one extra base hit, I believe.is that I'm not sure that's right
43:02might be rightwith Kevin Bidiohe hasn't been very goodnoyeah what do you think aboutbut I don't think either of themare overownedI think Fraser very shortly
43:13could beyeahthe most dropped playerwell yesif John Carlos Stantonand Aaron Judgeget healthyand Brett Gardner
43:21and Aaron Hicksstay healthybut the odds of thathappening arelike for more than a weekat onceseems really lowHe just can't play the field.
43:32So, you know, he's so bad.I think there's a chance he gets traded, though,and we'll see what kind of hit he is.Okay, let's just kind of fly through some things from yesterday.Francisco Lindorre and Fran Mill Reyes,double dongers.Thoughts?They're good.
43:56Once Franer Milorias is playing time looked like,over the last couple of weeks.That's always going to be the concern for me.It's not a concern about talent at all.Fairly consistent.He's been a inconsistent player, but he plays a lot.Yeah, if he's playing 85% to 90% of the games,I think he's a must-own in every category's league.
44:16I think he's, I have zero concerns about his talent.I think he's good.I'm curious what we think his true talent level BABIP is.because he's got a sub 300 on base right now.And part of that's because he has a 244 Babbitt,but he does sell out for power.So if he's a 270 guy,he might still be a guy that's going to hurt you
44:38in terms of walks to strikeouts.Guys, can we go fast on this next segment here?Some outfielders that you might want to consider picking up.Avi Garcia, 56% own.Avi Zail Garcia, 56% own and having a really good year.Kyle Schwerber, 61% own,since becoming the leadoff hitter on May 16thhasn't been quite as good as I thought.
44:59It's been number 20 in points,number 30 in Roto at Outfield,batting 2-16, but with six home runssince May 16th and 12 walks.Ramon Luriano and Derek Fisher.Lurianno, 26-owned.Derek Fisher, 7% owned for the Astros.He's been good.
45:16Do you see anybody who's under-owned here?Garcia, 56%, Schwarber, 61%.Loriano, 26%, Fisher, 7%.Garcia and Fisher for sureand I think maybe Luriano.Yeah, I think Luriano should probably be closer to 40 to 45.I don't necessarily disagreethat he may not have the upside for three outfielder leagues,
45:34but I have a hard time believingthere are 60 outfielder's people are startingthat are better than them.Yeah, and I think Fisher's someone you want to be usingin a deeper categories league,and that should include more than 7% of leagues,at least until the Astros get healthy.Can they get going?
45:51Three hitters who have been really frustrating this year,Do you think they're going to snap out of their slump soon?Joey Vado, Yassio Pueig, and Matt Carpenter,most likely to succeed.Or how about this?If you were just going to draft today,in what order would you draft Vado, Puege, and Carpenter?Carpenter Puege.
46:12Votto Carpenter Pueg.Cappado Pueg.All right, this bears, this requires some discussion then.Still Votto first, huh?Yeah, Chris.Votto last for Heath.Yeah, I don't see any reason to take Yassiel Pueg over Joey Vado.He's been as bad as Joe Evato has been, and he has been decidedly not good.
46:36Yassi El Pueg has arguably been the worst player in baseball this season.What?You got, look, you guys said that about someone last week, and we got an email that pointed out that you did not talk about Danny Jansen.And as long as Danny Jansen is still playing, you can't talk about any hitters as being the worst.Yesio PuegChris Owings also was so bad he got cutand had the 12th worstweighted run created plus
47:01of any player in the last 12 yearsYaso Pueg has seven more home runs than Joey Vadoand he has seven steals this yearI'd rather have PuegWell the thing is I trust Pueg more than Vadoto turn it aroundWhy?Because he has a track record
47:17Excuse meAnd Votto is no longerExcuse me hold on whatVotto is no longer in his prime.Vado is no longer in his prime.I think, like, this time last year...The track record thing was bad.You're going to take that back, right?
47:33No, Yassio Puig has a track record of being a slow start.So does Joey Votto as well...Right, but like Yossi Bato's track record doesn't mean as much to mebecause I think he's over...I think he's over the hill.Like, I like Yassio Pueg, but his track record is marked by inconsistency.And last year, he was good for two and a half months.He was an abjected disaster.
47:59I got stuck between two words.Last year?For the first two months.Yeah, for the first two months of the sheet.He's a slow starter. That's his track record.I'm not saying I have total...This is more to me about I don't really have much faith in Joey Votto anymore.Especially with the power.
48:14That's how I feel too.Just don't cite the track record.I think that the track record of Pueig being a slow starterand the fact that he still runs in homers a little bitgives me more faith in him than Joey Vottowho I just kind of think is done.I think he's...But I do think in Roto,
48:32Pueg has been considerably better than Votto.Sure.I don't doubt that because of the stolen basesand the home runs,but there's a lot...I mean, fine.Like, I don't think it's a huge difference,but I don't see much reason to be
48:47much more optimistic about Yassiel Puegthan Joey Vos.was more, like, I kind of understood why you would put Votto ahead of week, becauselike Votto was one of the best hitters in baseball over the last decade. I was more worriedabout you putting Votto ahead of Carpenter. I, that's the one that I decided on at the lastman, and I can absolutely make a case for Carpenter over Votto. I think that that's a good point.Something I've noticed, I'm sorry, something I've noticed for Carpenter, though, is that he issat against like three of the last four lefties they've faced. He's actually been better against
49:21lefties this year. And those four lefties, I mean, the Cardinals have not faced a lot of them.But we just haven't really noticed it because it's been spread out. But that's actually a huge deal.I don't think he's going to sit against lefties. But I'd like to see, I don't know the next timethey face a lefty. It might be tonight for all I know. I really like to see if you're like sittingthere going, should I try by low on that carpenter? I think we need to know if he's going to playagainst left-handed pitchers. I suspect he will, but I do need to mention that. Three of thefour lefties they've faced. He's been on the bench. All right. We sort of ran out of time today.about four minutes left.
49:53So let's go through some pitchers.Rotation part one.Okay, rank them.Strasbourg, Rieu, Castillo, Beber, Hendricks.Hendricks of another great start.Strasbourg, Riu, Castillo, Bieber, Hendricks.I believe Hendricks had one fewer swinging strike last night than his career high.He's been awesome for a while, but I think he's probably last among this group.
50:19I'll go Ryu, Strasbourg, Castillo, Bieber, Hendrik.I think Bieber and Hendricks is close.Yeah, I'll go this.Like, I have not decided between Strausburg and Ryu.I literally have to make that decision today.But I think that there's a couple of tiers here.Strasbourg and Ryu are aces and they're in the ace tier.Castillo and Bieber for me are still in the almost ace tier,
50:40but they're at almost the very top of it.And Hendricks is inching into that, but a little below those guys.Castillo, the walks have been.A problem.Yeah.I mean, they haven't really been a problem yet.They should have been.But yeah, his walk rate is really high.
50:58He's, and I, I haven't checked this in the last two starts, but he is kind of one of those guys that we all thought was going to have a breakout year.He's been outstanding.And so we're kind of ignoring the fact that he's also been really lucky.Yeah, he should probably have more like a mid three ZRA.And his walk rate is up to 11.8%.which is nearly double what it was last season.Interesting.Strange for Castillo.
51:24But you still think he's in the near ace tier.So it's not like he's a cell high where you're like waiting for him to explode.It's got to be for an ace, though.Yeah, but like there are lots of struggling aces that I still have ahead of him.Nola, Cindergarde, like that whole group of guys that we had in the ace tier that have fallen,they've not fallen behind Castillo for meand for a lot of people they haveand I absolutely sell Castillo for all
51:52I would go get Nola for him for sureRotation part twoand we might really just have to give names here guysand sorry about that we'rea little behind time todayTanakaBumgarnerFrankie Montas
52:06Griffin CanningEduardo Rodriguez and WadeMileyall these guys owned in more than 80% of leaguesTanaka Bumgarner MontasCanning Rodriguez MileyBumgarner really testing that theory ofif you get a quality start
52:20every single time you pitchbut also go six innings and give up three runsare you a good pitcher?Six innings basicallyevery time he pitches it's six sittings,it's crazy.And it's just about alwayssomewhere between two and four runs.
52:34Yeah.He has a 405b.He's not,like he's fine.I think he's probably the best pitcherof this group moving forward,but I don't think it's a big gap.I'd probably go Baumgartner,
52:43Montas,Tanaka versus Canning is really interestingand even Miley in that discussionI think is really interesting.But I think Bumgarner and Montas for sureare my top two in this group.Bumgarner, Montas, and Tanakaare the only three that I'm certain
53:00are going to be must-own rest of season.That's it for today's episode of fantasy baseball today.Thank you for listening, everybody.When we come back on Thursday show,we will have some trade talk for you.Buy low, sell high, buy high.Chris is filling in for Heath.So, Chris, you have to do a little bit of homework tonight.
53:16You have to get some trade candidates going,and you get to make fun of Scott when he doesn't have any trade candidateswhen we start the show.Thank you to Creeth.Thank you all for listening.I'm Adam Azer.Talk to you on Thursday on Fantasy Baseball today.
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