Fantasy Baseball Today - 06/11: Fun With FanGraphs, Mon. Recap and More (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 11, 2019

We begin the show with some SP rankings (2:00) of Mike Minor, Yu Darvish, German Marquez and Griffin Canning. Interesting notes on each of them and why you shouldn't panic on Marquez ... News and notes (13:24), double dongs (18:00) as Scott Kingery and Eduardo Escobar are among the five players who hit two HRs yesterday, fringy SPs (26:40) such as Anibal Sanchez and we discuss Mookie Betts' disappointing season (31:00) and Freddie Freeman's incredible season (34:00) and what we expect going forward. Plus bullpen notes (35:40) ... Fun With FanGraphs (38:30)! We take a look at the leaders in hard contact rate, BABIP and pitcher HR/FB rate and what it means for Fantasy owners. Who should we be buying and who should we sell? And we dedicate plenty of time to your emails (52:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome to the show on Tuesday, June 11th. What's going on, everybody? Adam Azer here with Chris Towers, who just got back from vacation.

Welcome back, Chris. Oh, I should have the welcome back. Why don't I ever have the welcome back music queued up? Hi, Chris. Hey, Adam. Yeah. How you doing? I'm back.

You want me to stall so you can get the music ready? Are you just, are we going to? I'm having internet issues. Okay, no, no internet issues. No, it was great. I was on vacation. I went to Atlanta for a long weekend. Hey, wait, hold on Atlanta, top three city.

You're not even listening. You're not even listening to the music. Welcome back. There it is. Okay, cool. Did you go to the Coca-Cola factory? I did not. I went once when I was a kid and I haven't been since.

Jeez, somebody doesn't know how to do Atlanta. I'm not 100% sure what the, like, is it actually, is it a working factory? I don't know. I went when I was a kid too. I've been back in like 25 years. Anyway, there was not a lot going on on Monday. An unbelievably brief news and notes section today. We had eight games.

The Yankees and Mets got rained out, so we were down to eight games. Yeah, we'll talk about what went on, but also we haven't done this all year, I don't think. Fun with Fangraphs. Chris is here. We're going to take a look at Fangraphs, some of the leaders in some important categories, hard contact rate, Babit,

things like that, home run to fly ball rate for pitchers. And we'll see what we can make of it. And maybe we can find some trade candidates in that. Any standouts for you in Monday's games that you're just dying to talk about, Chris? Yeah. I think we should probably do another U. Darvish conversation.

No. It wasn't even a terrible start, but it was just another one where he wasn't great. I mean, I know it was course field. Come on, Chris. This was a good start. Is U. Darvish someone were giving the benefit of the doubt to because he pitched in course field? No, really the only thing. I actually looked at it as an encouraging start because he didn't walk anybody, but five starts

ago Darvish didn't walk anybody and then at his next four he walked like 11 in about 24 innings. So you're going to have to see it again. That's sort of that you're referring to he had 11 strikeouts. He only had three yesterday. I didn't take much away because I sat you Darvish. I own him in two leagues now and I sat him and I just I didn't expect much of course but six innings four runs at cores is actually not that bad. No walks is good. You know what? I'll say this. My opinion didn't change of you Darvish. I'm still still stashing him. We'll start in the appropriate matchups, and I'm hopeful. Did your opinion change?

No, no, but I'm a lot less hopeful than you are. I'm not as hopeful as you might think. I'm, so for me, it's mostly that I'm just, I'm looking for reasons to be hopeful, and that did not provide any form. Yeah, but do you have the gutting is the way. Do you have the guts to drop you, Darvish? Probably not, but, you know, I,

Maybe I wish I did. Our first segment of the day, other than Monday's standouts, is called Rank These Starting Pitchers. Do you know how this segment works, Chris? I'll guide you through. I think I might be able to figure out out if we can't go long. Let me know if you have any questions. All right, Rank these starting pitchers.

Darvish is one of them. His opponent last night, Armand Marquez, who also went six innings and gave up four runs, three homers against the Cubs. Mike Minor, very good start at Boston, eight innings, two-runs, six strikeouts. And Griffin Canning, who in his last five starts

is the number 22 starting pitcher and points, number 20 in Roto. In those starts, he has a 270 ERA. Four walks, 28 strikeouts, and 30 innings with a 15-percent swinging strike rate, which is just bonkers. I mean, you could go, I didn't include his first three starts.

I was trying to be a little generous. Griffin Canning, but rank those pitchers. You see them on the list there as Minor, Darvish, Marquez, and Canning. I'll go Marquez, Minor. I feel more comfortable in starting Griffin Canning than you Darvish at this point, so yeah, I'll go with him.

And you're still going with Marquez over Minor? Yeah, and I wouldn't feel, if you asked me to explain that, I wouldn't feel super comfortable in whatever explanation I came by. I just don't quite trust what Mike Miner's doing as sustainable, because it's just such an outlier for what he's done in his recent history as a starter. The good news, when there are only eight games, it gives me more time to kind of dig into players.

I think Chris Scott and Heath always do that, but I'm putting together the show. It takes time. But when they're only eight games, I got a chance to kind of look more into the numbers for Mike Miner. Now, first thing, okay, so Mike Miner has a 252 ERA and a 118 whip and more than just over a strikeout per inning. And I'm going to try to find out where he ranks among starting pitchers. He is ahead of Armand Marquez, who is... Oh yeah, he's got to be pretty high up, yeah, even the volume. Marquez is, 15th in points and 26th in Roto. Miner's actually 16th in points, one point behind Armand Marquez, but ahead of him in Roto.

So let's say he's around 20th in Roto. Mike Minor has an 87.1% strand rate. So right off the bat, Chris, what does that tell you? Either he is better than basically anyone in baseball at pitching with Rarindon base or more likely he's been incredibly luck. Right. It's a very high number. The good, though, 43.8% ground ball rate, that's a career high.

12% swinging strike rate, that's a career high. And if you look at those two numbers, ground balls and swinging strikes, very, very similar to his 2017 season. 2017, he had a 255 ERA, which is almost exactly what he has right now, and more than a strikeout per inning. However, it was all as a reliever. So there are a lot of things to play here with Minor. Sure, he's been lucky with an 87% strand rate. But those two numbers, ground balls and strikeouts, are showing the same picture that we saw two seasons ago when he's. He was great as a reliever.

And by the way, after the All-Star break last year, he did have a 297 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 57 and two-thirds. I don't know if he made any adjustments after the All-Star break, but it's now like a year almost of a sub-three guy. I'm buying into mine or more than you are. Yeah, and like I said, I don't have a great explanation for it. It's mostly just that, you know, it's 90 innings, and sometimes things happen.

90 innings. But because I, I don't necessarily see like a huge adjustment that he's made. Yes, he is getting more swinging strikes, but he still has a, you know, an ex-fip in the 39 range, a Sierra. I think that's at 4.00. Really? And so, yeah, it's weird. I'm not 100% sure what the explanation for it is there.

So for me, it just, it seems like a couple of good months. I guess the, the fact that it's going back to the second half of last season, I didn't realize that does. change my perspective a little bit, but I still do view him as a sell high candidate. And I think I view Arm Marquez as a by-low candidate. I've sort of, okay, look, you have to accept he's not going to strike guys out like he did last year, but he still has a good strike out, right? He's still one per inning. And like I said, he's 16th in points. He's 25th in Roto. He very rarely has a bad start.

Like last time out at the Cubs, he gave up eight runs in five and a third. but he very rarely has a bad, bad start. And I think people are really down on him. In fact, we're going to read an email later about Marquez. We can talk more about him. But the fact that you rank him over Minor, I think, probably tells me that you consider Marquez a by-low as well, depending on how people view him. Sure. And it really does depend, like you said, if someone in your league is just fed up with Mike Minor.

And this is, this gets to something that I, yeah, Marquez. This gets to something that I think is worth mentioning. You know, the email that you mentioned coming up, we get a lot of like kind of rage drop. Like, I'm done with this guy. I dropped him. And at some point, and I think, you know, June 11th is a, is we're at that point now. You got to stop judging players based on what you drafted them as and then judging them as disappointments if they're not. You should judge a player for what he is. And in Armand Marquez's case,

it's still a valuable pitcher. I would guess it's probably an ERA lower than 419. The whip is still good. It's still a good amount of strikeouts. And so, you know, he's someone that I get being frustrated with him because you might have drafted him as a potential ace. And he's not that. And he's probably not going to be that, but you got to take him for what he is at this point. Yeah, I agree. Okay. And like, if you want to sit him at home, I guess sit him at home. Yeah. But you don't have to. I mean, the Cubs, the Cubs at Cores Field, that's really tough, and he did all right. All right, we got a lot more to get to here. Actually, let me, like, do you buy Griffin Canning? I love the swinging strike rate. And like I said, last five starts, he's a top 22 starting pitcher with a

270 ERA in that stretch. What I don't love is like the basically innings cap, like pretty much getting six innings from him, which means you're probably getting five or six strikeouts, which really isn't doing a whole lot. The way where I'm at with Griffin Canning is like, I don't mind having him. I don't mind starting him right now.

I don't know how much longer this is going to last. I wish I felt like I could sell high on Griffin Canning, but I'm not sure who's buying. Yeah, I think it's worth trying. The one thing that is worth, considering is nobody really pitches deep into games anymore like mike minor does i guess but for the most part we're going to have to recalibrate to a place where you know if if a guy's good and he gives you five innings every time you're never going to get an ace out of that guy but that represents the best case

scenario for a lot of pitcher at this point and so i i knock him a you knock him a little bit because of the the limited workload and, you know, the fact that he has been somewhat efficient and they just don't seem to trust him to go deep into games. But in his case, the stuff is good. The swing strikes seem legitimate because of that stuff. And so, yeah, I think if someone wants to give you Ramon Marquez for him, go for it. But I think he's still someone who should be useful moving forward. Because you play poker? Yeah. Yeah, I like a poker game. You don't play. Like, when was the last time you played poker? Like three weeks ago, but before that, it was like a year ago.

Oh, okay. Well, that's still pretty good. I've been trying to get a game together with the office people, though. I would love to get a poker game going. If I was in the same office as you, I would play poker with you. Thanks. Yeah, no problem. Well, the World Series of Poker is back.

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Stanton should be back well ahead of Judge, unless he gets hurt on the rehab assignment again. Yoamancada left with a back issue. He's day-to-day. Adam Wainwright is on the IL. Not looking good right now for Alex Reyes. His last two starts have been bad. Michael Waka rejoined the rotation yesterday.

So I'm hopeful for Reyes, but he's got to turn it around in AAA. Jordan Liles is on the IL with a hamstring injury may have been affecting his delivery on Sunday when he had a terrible start. Did you see... You were in Atlanta, Were you at the Pirates game last night by any chance?

I was home in South Florida by then. Well, did you see the stupid ejection? What an outrageous ejection. I guess part of it has to be that the Pirates have a, at this point, I think pretty well-earned reputation for throwing at people and just kind of being like angry on the mound. and so maybe that organization has kind of lost the benefit of doubt. I can't remember who it was.

A former player tweeted yesterday after this that it's like an organizational thing, like even coming up through the minors, I think he said he was with the Phillies, and it was something like even when we were in the minors, we hated Pirates pitchers. So, you know, maybe it's that. Maybe. I mean, that was the one guy I wanted to watch.

I wanted to watch Musgrove last night. Well, because I don't really buy Joe Musgrove, but, you know, he made some changes to his delivery, got back on track. I wanted to see what was what. He hits Josh Donaldson in the first inning, and it didn't really look intentional. Yeah.

They start jawing at each other. Donaldson shoves the catcher, Diaz. I don't really know what Musgrove did. He must have said something really mean. I think the umpire after the game said it was because he threw his glove down, and that was viewed as like an average. escalation thing before Donaldson pushed the catcher. Come on.

And they both got, you cannot toss a starting pitcher in the first inning. Like that is. James and Tyone's going to get a fine for his tweet. Did you see that? Yeah, I did see his tweet. Yeah. Yeah.

Okay. So anyway, Joe Musgrave got ejected. David Bodie, Homer to Colorado. Good job. Heath Cummings. Nice call on a sleeper hitter. Kevin Gosman was terrible again, which of course is very relevant because Dallas Keikle had a very

strong start in the minors. And even Sean Newcomb came in. If they want to replace two guys in the rotation, Newcomb had a great outing yesterday in relief. It seems like a long shot, but just saying. First baseman Matt Adams for the Nationals has an oblique issue. Could miss a couple of games. Howie Kendrick, DH.

No, did he? Yeah, they were at the White Sox last night. I think he DH, but this could just make more opportunity for Howie Kendrick if Adams has a serious injury, and Kendrick's just been awesome. Arizona and Philadelphia combined for an MLB record 13 home runs. We'll talk about that game soon. And the Dodgers and Angels drew the biggest crowd in 21 years at Angel Stadium.

It was a really exciting game with the Angels beating the Dodgers. All right. When we come back... That's wild. Yeah, what? The home runs? That's wild. That's a bigger crowd than they had during their World Series season?

Might have been regular. They didn't have a bigger one in 99? Oh, like regular season. That's wild. be. Or 2001 was when they won the World Series. Yeah. Let's move on.

Yeah, no, 99. 99 was the Yankees. Double Dongs, when we come back, Kingery, Escobar, Albies, Marte. A lot of your e-bails today at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com and fun with Fangraphs.

We'll be right back after this on Fantasy Baseball today. Double dongs. A lot of dons last night. Like I said, record-setting night in Philadelphia. And Scott Kingery was part of that. He hit two home runs. and Eduardo Escobar hit two home runs

and Ketalmarte Homer as well we'll talk about him. But, all right, okay, let's start with Kingery. He's 47% owned. Is he criminally underowned right now batting 324, slugging 610? No, I don't think a reasonable prosecutor

would be able to bring this case to jury. But I do think he's underowned. And one thing that I really like seeing is last season he had a lot of trouble making contact. He's been hitting the ball really hard this year, but there were still some contact issues with him. But then you look at the last 10 games. He has eight strikeouts.

He's starting to hit a little better. That's a good sign because this is someone who I do think still, you know, over the course of a full season could still be a 25 homer 20 steel guy. And I would imagine he, he's going to play pretty much every day moving forward unless they, and he has been basically since he came off the IL, but unless they go trade for a center fielder,

and even then, I think he's probably a better player than Michael Franco at this point. So I would hope we see Scott Kingery in the lineup every day, and I do think he should be more owned than 47%, especially. I think he should be owned in all categories league. Would you have the guts? do you have them to rank Kingery

ahead of Ozzie Albys who also double-donged yesterday? No, no, I wouldn't do that. Albies is definitely a safer play, and the upside I'm not sure is that much higher. You know, I would guess Albies won't hit for as much power as Kingery, but he's in a better spot in the lineup. He should be, you know, I would set the baseline higher than Kingery for sure.

Albies is annoying, though. I mean, he is the number nine second baseman of points league's number 14 in Roto, but so streaky. Maybe this gets him going, a nice two-homer game. Plate discipline's good again. But there's just not that much there. There's nine home runs and four steals so far in 66 games for Ozzy Albies and a 269 batting average.

And now he's a huge volume guy. That's one of the biggest things he has. going in his favor is. I think he lead baseball and played appearances last year. He was definitely close. He got moved down on the order. I mean, he's going to have to hit his way back up to the top. Because, you know, he's batting like seventh now. But he could, you know, obviously

those things change. All right, other double dongs from yesterday. Eduardo Escobar. Eduardo Escobar is the number two shortstop in fantasy. Number three third baseman in points league's number two third baseman in Roto. He is batting 299 with 17 home runs. Last year he had 272 with 23 home runs and 48 doubles in 151 games.

Do you buy this from Eduardo Escobar? No, no. I mean, you look at the expected stats and he looked a lot like the guy he was last season. It's actually kind of shocking how similar he looks. Last year, he had a 250 expected batting average and a 429 expected slugging percentage. This year he's got a 233 expected batting average and a 425 expected slugging percentage. So not hitting the ball particularly hard, doesn't have a particularly good barrel rate. He looks very similar to the guy he's been the last couple of years.

So I think you're looking at a pretty viable sell high candidate here, one that you probably won't regret making a move on. Well, I will say Eduardo Escobar was a top 12 shortstop. he was basically 12th and he was 13th to 3rd base. Sure, but he wasn't near this good. No, he was not. It looks like he's converted all of his doubles into home runs. And that's something that like that's good, but if your net number of extra base hits hasn't really gone up,

that's probably a sign that. I mean, I oversimplified it, but last year he had 48 doubles. And, well, all right, let's see the... It's not to say he's bad, but he's the number two shortstop, and shortstop might be the most stacked position in fantasy right now. So, you know, if I think you probably view him more in the 14-15 range, and if someone can give you something as a top seven or eight shortstop,

I think, yeah, you try to move him. Arizona's second baseman, Edelma Vargas, also homered twice, but he's 2% own. He doesn't play every day. I think we could skip him. but Starling Marte has been pretty hot lately, and he went three for five with two homers and four RBIs at Atlanta. So he has a 2.8% walk rate, and it's usually like 6%, which is really low,

but 2.8% is, like, hilarious. That's why Chris laughed. I don't even know. What do you make of Marte? Right now he's batting 289 with nine home runs and 11 steals in 54 games. I guess he's mostly been Starling Marte, but on pace for a career high in home runs. now after this game last night.

Yeah, your take. He's mostly been Starling Marte, but probably three weeks ago he hadn't been. So I just kind of look at it. He's mostly been what you expected. And so the walk rate's too low. I would expect that starts to regress a little bit. Maybe the power comes back down.

But yeah, he's a much better option in a Roto league for sure, probably not necessarily a must-start guy in a points league, but for sure a must-start player in a roto league. All right, those are your double dongs from last night. Let's see, would you rather have, would you rather have Starling Marte or Whitmerfield, who we have a fun email about later? Merrifield. Do you know the last time Whitmerfield stole the base, Chris Towers?

1973. 74, actually. Ah. I always forget. He has still, May 22nd was the last time he attempted a steal. I think May 7th might have been the last time he stole a base. Maybe it was May 27. So the thing I would want to see in that,

because I don't know, I haven't been, maybe, maybe there's something going on with the Royals and they're not running as much as we expected, but I would imagine. Oh, Mondesie is. Yeah, so that's why I would expect that's not. the case. So maybe he just hasn't had a lot of opportunities, but no, I mean, he's 21 times on base in that span, only three extra base hits. So he's had 18 times standing on first base. So

that's weird. I wouldn't expect it to continue. But, you know, one thing that we did talk about with last season was how concentrated his stolen bases were in the second half. And that came when the royals were totally out of it and just kind of let everyone run and this season. They're out of it. He's attempted 13. Yeah, I mean, they were out of it on the third day of the season, but, you know, he, eight stolen bases, five caught stealing. Maybe he slowed down a bit. I'm not 100% sure there, but yeah, they haven't let him run as much this season.

I think I would still take him over Marte, but maybe it's a categories versus points thing where you take Merrifield in points. Martian categories. Yeah, I mean, Merrifield, after the All-Star break, stole 28 bases and 67 games. Before the All-Star breaks, 17 steals and 91 games. So, yeah, he...

Steels are streaky. I mean, home runs are streaky, so are steals. And I imagine he'll start running more. He has been cold, quite cold. Cold is ice. Didn't have that queued up, sorry. But last 14 games,

batting 283, but slugging 3. 333. Two extra base hits, a double and a triple. All right, we got more on Whitmerfield later in our email section here. Let's get through the rest of yesterday's action. The fringy starting pitchers. Annabal Sanchez. Another great start. Only one strikeout.

That was weird. But this is now three starts. It was six innings, one run, one strikeout at the White Sox. He got the win. And his last three starts, Annabal Sanchez, is giving up two earn runs with three walks and 15Ks and 17. And a third. By the way, you got to be watching our video here. Go to YouTube.

type in CBS Sports and find our video every day because we got like video of Anabal Sanchez striking people out right now or striking person out, I guess I should say, 1K yesterday. But the fringy starting pictures from yesterday are Sanchez, Jared Eikoff, Michael Waka, and Sandy Alcansura,

Sanchez Good, Ikoff Dreadful, Waka good, Alcantara, eh, yeah. Do you want any of these guys on your mixed league roster? Sanchez against the right matchups, was good last year. I don't think he's totally lost it, but I don't think he's great either. These are

all the definition of streaming guys. I think Alcantara might be the most interesting guy, but you know, this is what he does. He goes through, he had a great start his most recent time out. He'd been pretty good before that.

And then he goes out and has a start where he can't find the strike zone. Still does a good job of limiting hard contact. The hitters really have a hard time I'm squaring up on him, so he should be someone who outperforms his peripherals, but he's always going to have a really bad whip. So he's more of just an upside stash play than anything else. I don't necessarily love any of these guys.

And Ikoff, I believe, has allowed 16 home runs in his last 27 innings, which is a lot. 16 home runs in 27 and a third inning. They gave up five yesterday. 1137 OPS with a 237 Babbup in that span. Almost as many home runs as strikeouts. I've been trying to find. I don't know if this doesn't seem to be available,

but I wanted to get the pitching performance by hitters this season and see how it compares to the last 27 innings for Jared Eikoff. But yeah, I think at this point, you can let go of Jared Eikoff. I'm not sure how much long. he's going to be in the rotation. I think Chris needs to give a little more credit to Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez had a 283RA, a 101. He was very good last year.

And a strikeout printing in 136 and two-thirds last year. He was really good. I don't think I didn't give him credit. I said it was good. But he's the definition of a streamer. Really? Yeah, he hasn't been that good this year. He's got a 442 FIP.

He has a 3.5. He has a 392 ERA. People don't play in leagues with FIPP, so you should tell them what his ERA is. Okay, Adam. Yeah, no, the biggest thing is the control hasn't been there this season. He's actually, the strikeouts are still okay. The strand rate is fine,

but he just hasn't been able to get the ball over the play consistently enough. And he's also had a huge spike in his fly ball rate. So, you know, you look at it. He's moved in the wrong direction. in all three BIP or ERA predictive stats, but two of them in particular have really gone the wrong way. And so... Things are looking up.

Maybe he's... What's that? Things are looking up, man. Three good starts in a row. Yeah. Getting back. All right, we don't have to talk about Adamal Sanchez anymore. We probably don't have to talk about Oakland starting pitcher Tanner Anderson

or White Sox starting pitcher Odrysumannay. You both made their first starts of the season, do we? Anderson has a cool delivery. Does he? He kicks his leg way out. That was fun. Oh, great. That's about all I said about him.

We don't have video of that. I mean, come on. What's going? What kind of operation is this? I want a high leg kick. Get the video. Just kidding, video crew. All right, then let's talk about two studs.

One kind of disappointing. One kind of amazing. Mookie Betts has been kind of disappointing. Would you agree? Unquestionably so He was arguably the top player in fantasy coming into the season Only for Heath I bet if Scott were here

Arguably Scott would be like Ah yes it's been that bad He's this he's that I never sit Mookie Betts So thank goodness Somebody's willing to admit that Mookie Betts has been kind of disappointed Yeah all of those things are true He hasn't been that bad

Relative to the league as a whole he's been awesome I would never sit Mookie Betts Yeah That doesn't mean he hasn't been disappointed It doesn't mean that he won't be good moving forward, but it does mean he's been disappointing. We drafted him, and this is, you know, we see when things are going really well for Mookie Betts,

he's arguably the best player in baseball and arguably the best player in fantasy. When things aren't going as well for Mookie Betz, he's still a really, really good player. And so, no, you should not panic about Mookie Betts. No, you should not sell him. But, you know, it's been a disappointing, start to the season. What's interesting about bets, he is the number four outfielder in points

leagues and number 17 in Roto. And this is usually when Scott and I get into disagreements, because Scott typically defaults to the points league's rankings. Why is it so much different for bets? Because his plate discipline is better than ever. 48 walks, 44 strikeouts. That always is going to boost the guy's value in points leagues compared to a standard batting average Roto league. He's number 17 at outfield. That's actually like major bust. Because 268, not good. 10 home runs, nothing special these days.

Six deals, not really getting much. Fine. Yeah. And 51 runs is really good, but 29 RBIs is not. So... He is back in the lead-off spot. So... He is.

You know, that's something that moving forward, we could see an increase in his counting stats. Well, we'll see. I don't know. I mean, he's batting. second before, so I don't know. Yeah, I don't give them 20 extra play to pages over the course of the season. It's a big deal.

It's not a small deal. I just, like, is this going to be 2017 all over again, which was fine? Or, like, if you were drafting Moogie Betts right now, we pull up to 2017, he batted 264 with 24 home runs and 26 deals. Right now he's batting 268 with 10 home runs and six deals. You know, if you were going to draft Moogie Betts, where would you draft them? Fourth. Behind.

Trow, Yelich, and Bellinger. Okay. All right, cool. No one Aronado or bets? Bets. Okay. And then kind of amazing. Freddie Freeman.

Homer again. Can you keep it up? The only question is the home runs. You know Freddie Freeman's going to hit for batting average. You know he's going to be great. But he's the number six hitter in points. number three in Roto with 18 home runs. He's on pace for 45 home runs,

and that's with barely more fly balls than line drives. A 26.5% home run to fly ball rate, but he's hitting the crap out of the ball. So, you know, is this legit? Remember a couple weeks ago I said, trade Freddie Freeman for J.D. Martinez. I don't think I'd do that anymore. But am I being...

I think you still do. You know, the back spasms, I'm always such a nervous nelly with injuries. So the fact that J.D. Martinez had some back issues maybe scared me a little bit too much. But if Freeman's a home run hitter, then he's like one of the best hitters in baseball. He's one of the best hitters in baseball regardless. One of the best hitters in baseball. Even like after this hot streak, we're seeing him hit for more power than he usually does.

And he's on pace for like a very similar season to what J.D. Martinez did last year. Yeah. Which was not J.D. Martinez's best season. So I still think you'd take J.D. Martinez. is over him, but that's not obviously a knock against Freddie Freeman. It's just he's probably not going to keep having a 27% home run to fly ball ratio. He's an incredible hitter. There's no real case against him. I would just, I would take the under on 40 home runs for Freddie Freeman, which still means I think he's going to hit 18 to 19 more moving forward. But yeah, I think he's

probably a bit ahead of what you should expect as far as home run. He only has 43 RBIs despite hitting 311 with 18 home runs and 65 games. It's really not that low, but you look at other guys who have hit the same amount of home runs. It's a little low. Freddie Freeman is batting 261 and slugging 283 with runners in scoring position. So that's weird. Maybe the RBI rate gets a little better, although it's really not that bad of an RBI rate. In the bullpen, Joe Webb got a say.

save for Atlanta, but Luke Jackson had pitched two straight games. Sean Kelly and Matt Barnes both blue saves in a pretty wild game in Fenway last night. Who's the closer? In two weeks, who are the closers for the Rangers and Red Sox?

Jose LeClerc, who the manager keeps talking about as getting close to taking the job back. I know he did he blow a save or did he just take the loss over the weekend? Two bad addings over the weekend. I still would take Jose LaClerc.

And one of them was, I think there was, it was kind of a flukey thing. Like he had two outs and then he had just like a really crappy ball falling for a hit and then gave up a home run. So I think he's the best reliever there. As far as the Red Sox, I don't know. I mean, Brandon Workman's been awesome this year. But I would hope they go get somebody by the end of July and kind of solidify this, but my answer is probably nobody.

Okay. I still think Barnes is probably the best guy to own. He's just been struggling lately. What's worrying me a little bit about Barnes, not the runs. His ERA has risen almost two runs in his last four appearances. That'll happen. But seven walks in his last eight appearances. And he had been amazing with his control this year. Last year he walked like five batters per nine or something crazy. But now Barnes' control is getting a little wild. So I I would rank them Barnes-Workman, but it could be Workman Barnes. Workman has been really, really good this year. Chris,

Fangraphs, true or false, is your homepage. You open up a browser, it goes to Fangraphs. Let me see, because Google Chrome does. No, it's my number six page. Baseball reference is actually one spot ahead of fan graphs on my most opened pageant.

Where's CBS? Third. I don't even want it. want to know what second is. I want the audience to just try to guess. I don't know. It might be like a competitor website and then I don't want to embarrass you. It's not a competitor website guys. Okay. It's work stuff. It's all work stuff, everybody. Oh, it's a baseball savant. That's actually the one right after Fangraphs. Okay. So fun with Fangraphs. Let's take a look at some advanced stats. Let's take a

look at the leaders in hard contact rate. And if you want to go to Fangraphs, click on leaders and then batting and then this will be batted ball data. Joey Gallo, his number would, Joey Gallo, I'll let Chris do it if he wants. Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Paul Goldschmidt, Ford, Rendon 5, Christian Walker, 6. How about Shinsu Chu 7 on this list of hard contact? Will Myers, Fran Mill Reyes, and Marcelo Zuna. So Goldschmidt, Walker, Chu, Myers, Reyes, Marcelo Zuna,

those are names that might surprise people. What do you make of the hard contact leaders? Well, one thing that is worth noting, we've talked about it a little bit this season, but hard contact rate across the league continues to rise. It was up to 35% last season. I think it's 37.5% so far this season. So there was a point when a 37.5% hard contact rate was really good.

Now it's pretty pedestrian. But even by that standard, all these guys are doing really, really well. And I think it's, you know, someone like Paul Goldschmidt, who's been disappointing this season, I think it makes you feel a little better about his chances moving forward. And I'm not too concerned about him anyway. Will Myers is a surprise. What's that?

You're not concerned about him, about Goldschmidt? No. No, we did this last year And he ended up being incredible from June on So the fact that he's hitting the ball really hard It was earlier than that though I mean it was like May It was like one bad month for Goldschmidt last year

Now it's two Was it? I'm almost positive I don't I will say the bad months weren't as bad this time Like he's almost at an 800 OPS I don't think he was Even that good like

Yeah he he hit 293 in May. Which is surprising. Yeah. He didn't hit for any power, but yeah, he hit 293. That's pretty surprising. But I think this is a good sign that he's hitting the ball really hard, and we shouldn't have that much concern. I don't think I'm any more concerned about him than I would have been coming into the season. I think he'll still be very good. All right, that's Goldschmidt definitely has league winner potential for you. What else on the most added list on the hard contact list.

Will Myers is surprising to see there. I've pretty much given up on him as being much more than a like number four outfielder moving forward because he's just striking out way too much. He's hitting a ton of infield fly balls. But when he does square up a ball, it's good things are happening. So that's nice to see. I just, I still, I'm not sure he's better than the third outfielder or the Padres at this point.

Yeah, it doesn't really do it for me. Even last year, I feel like he was doing good things at the beginning of the season and it just, we know, we know who he is. He's bad batting average. Give me all of the Fran Mill Reyes over Will Meyer. Yeah, Reyes, Reyes just needs to get a little bit more consistent, but yeah, you know, he, I also see, I also see his home running fly ball rate is 35.2%, which is crazy. Sure, but he only has a 1.9% infield fly ball rate. So you compare that to Will Myers is at 15%. His 28% home run to fly ball ratio looks a lot less sustainable than what Framl Reyes is doing

because a lot more Fram Mel Reyes' fly balls are viable. All right, next category is Babip, hitter Babip. Okay, so who are the leaders who are maybe the luckiest or among the luckiest? David Dahl still has a 434 Babbup. You know that guys are going to have high Babbup, Sikors Field, but this is still, this is insane. 434 Babbat for David Dahl.

Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe. I want to say that Brandon Lowe is one of the best sell highs in fantasy. But, like, I buy that he's going to be a power hitter. And, like, he's always delivered a better average than he. he should, going back to the miners. Yeah, but he never struck out this much in the minors. He was always actually a decent contact hitter in the minors. He's just an all-or-nothing guy at this point.

He kind of looks a little like Ian Hap, actually. Now, that's not to say he's going to go the way of Ian Hap, but he has a 19.7% swinging strike rate, and it was 18% last year. So, you know, we're going on over 100 games of him being, you know, a pretty lousy contact hitter. And he didn't have a super high Babbat last year, so it's hard to say that he's just going to be a high Babbat guy moving forward. He might be, but I think you're probably looking at more of a 230 to 240 hitter moving forward,

unless he improves the contact. All right, that's Brandon Lowe. Also on the list, Javier Baez, Joey Gallo, Yo-Mon-Monkata, Jeff McNeil, Shinsu-chu, who is also among the leaders in hard contact, right? Tim Anderson and Miguel Cabrera. That's your top 10. So, Dahl, Meadows, Lau, Baez, Gallo, Moncada, McNeil, Shin-Soo-Coo-Chu, Tim Anderson and Miguel Cabrera.

Your top 10 in Babbip. What does this mean to you? Guys like Baez, guys like Moncada, they're going to be high-Babbitt players. they've established that for their careers. I want to say Austin Meadows has been a pretty high BABIP guy as well, but I'm not 100% sure about that. Yeah, he was 336 last season in his 59 games. Look, Babbip takes a really long time to stabilize it.

It's such a noisy stat. There's so much that goes into it that's outside of a player's control that, you know, generally speaking, you need about 1,500 plate appearances before you can really definitively say, okay, we have a pretty good idea of what a batter's true talent level is when it comes to BABIP. So, you know, a lot of this stuff is going to change.

I would guess at least one guy on this list has a sub-300 Babbup in the second half, and it'll probably be Joey Gallow. All right, then let's do one more fun with Fangraphs category. Would you like to do pitch your ground ball rate or pitch your home run to fly ball rate? Home run to fly ball rate, I think. is more interesting.

Okay, fine. The other one's not interesting at all. It was a stupid thing. I'm sorry. It was a stupid waste of time. Home run to fly ball rate. Who's giving up the most home runs per fly ball? You, Darvish, leads the way.

22.4% of his fly balls are leaving the ballpark. Garrett Cole. Kyle Gibson. Dakota Hudson. Jake Arieta. Shane Bieber. We talked about that with Heath yesterday. John Gray, Tyler Malley.

Carlos Carrasco and Yvonne Nova. I am surprised that Trevor Bauer is not on this list. Since he's always, you know, since last time out, he was like, oh, every time we give up a fly ball, it's a home run. But these guys have it worse than you, Trevor Bauer, Darvish, Cole, Gibson, Hudson, Arieta, Bieber, John Gray, Malley, Carrasco, and Yvonne Nova. Takeaways from the home run to fly ball rate leaders.

So, as with hard hit, hard contact, percentage. This has risen league-wide from 12.7% last season, 14.3% this season. So you do have to take that into account. We're seeing a lot more guys with, you know, in this range, the 20% range than you usually do. And that'll come down. We probably won't see nearly this many. But, you know, it's a lot of guys who it's not terribly surprising to see them in this range. You know, Shane Bieber, someone who has really solid peripherals, but over the course of what he's done this year and last year, he's been someone who's gotten hit really hard when he has gotten hit. So it's not totally surprising. John Gray, both playing in cores and just that lack of consistency that has defined his career, you know, he'll strike three guys out and then give up a home run.

and it's kind of hard to say which version of him is coming because there's not a lot of predictability there. So some of this is just bad luck for a lot of these guys. You know, I don't think they'll give up this many home runs, but there are reasons for some of these guys to continue to struggle with that. I would say Garrett Cole is probably the guy because he's so good at everything else. he's probably the guy who I would expect this to regress most for.

He's more than double what he was last season, despite giving up fewer fly balls overall. So, you know, you can't really call Garrett Cole a buy low, can you? No. But there's a run and a half difference between his ERA and his Sierra right now. Which is higher? His ERA is higher. His ERA is, yeah, 372 ERA.

Sierra in the like two three two four range. Yeah, Gary Cole is striking everybody out too. He's been great. I mean, if I'm drafting pitchers today, I don't care what Gary Cole's ERA is. He's probably my third pitcher. He's certainly in that discussion. I think I'd go Scherzer Verlander Cole.

And yeah, even ahead of Chris Sale, ahead of DeGrom. I think that's what I'd do. Okay. Thank you for. your insight on fun with Fangraphs, Chris. It's team name Tuesday, Todd. More alliteration. Fun with

Fangraphs. Team name Tuesday, right? I mean, all right. Poyos Hermanos for Cesar Pueo. Okay. That's very good. That's a breaking bad reference. Cesar Pueo, can you talk about his mixed league viability? That was the question

associated with team name Tuesday. No, I cannot. I don't know. I mean, okay, he's Angels outfielder. He's done some good things. I'm going to pull up his player page. Obviously, this isn't really moving the needle much. You don't buy it. From what I understand, he's hit fairly well in the minors in recent seasons, 844 career OPS at AAA.

But he's, look, I mean, we've seen it the last couple of years where guys like Jose Martinez or guys like Tommy Fam have kind of made this late career breakout after stalling out in the upper minors. but I it's it seems unlikely he's 28 maybe maybe there's something else there that I don't know of because I can't say I've done a deep dive

but my my knee jerk reaction is to say that this is probably not anything really yeah he's 28 years old so it's unlikely okay pocket full of posy pocket full of posy Zach Gallin fanakis that's very good That's going to win today, I think.

I want you so Vlad. It's creepy. Domo a rigato, Mr. Renato. Okay. And somebody wanted to give us a team name Tuesday just all about Peep. So this is Peep Name Tuesday. Peep Soap Choy, Joe Peepitone,

Vicente Peepadilla, Scott Peep Sednick, JJ Peeperino. All right. That works for me. Yeah, sure. That's wonderful. Fine. Let's read some emails, fantasy baseball,

at CBA.com. You watched the game last night? It's a good game. Which game? Warriors and the Raptors. Yes. Yes, I did. That was part of why I went to sleep so late.

Yeah. These NBA final West Coast games. It's another reason. It was in Toronto. It wasn't a freaking West Coast game. It's another reason why hockey. That's on the West Coast. Hockey is better than.

basketball. I mean, that's stop. Okay, listen, basketball is better, but imagine, look, you haven't watched Staley. People, you haven't watched Staling. People, like, people trip over themselves to praise playoff hockey.

As if it's, like, somehow a different product than it is. Like, you either like hockey or you don't. Well, it's making me realize I would have liked hockey more if I, if I had watched it. But obviously, we're also looking at, like, the best teams, right, playing great hockey. Like, last night was great basketball. Those teams were playing

great basketball. But imagine the NBA starting an hour earlier. The NBA final starting at 8 o'clock instead of 9 o'clock Eastern, which would be one-n-h. And with like so many fewer stoppages. Like that goaltending thing on cousins, that took forever. And then what are they, they reviewed a ridiculous thing in the final minute. I hate the, I've become an anti-replay zealant in all sports. I think we should just get rid of it all because it's the entertainment factor should be more important.

then figuring out whether it was an inch to the right or to the left. Like these games get bogged down. It's true of every sport. I think baseball probably comes the closest to doing it right. But we shouldn't have these multi-minute stoppages in key moments. It sucks the energy out of the building. Yeah, no. I'm not quite as anti-replay as you are.

But basketball, the stoppages are just unbelievable. That's why playoff hockey is better. All right, email time. This is from... No name, really, on the first email at him? Way to go. Dear guy, buddy, friend, and dude. Will Whitmerfield ever get another steal?

We talked about that. The second question was, is Gene Seguro the worst type of player in fantasy? He isn't hurting you, but he's barely helping you. He isn't hurting you in batting average or runs, but he's barely helping you anywhere else. Four steals, is Gene Segara the worst type of player in fantasy? Or is it Jose Ramirez?

Yeah, it's Jose Ramirez. No, no. worst type of player in fantasy is probably someone who's really bad at baseball. No, but the worst type of player that you would actually roster and start is probably a guy like Nick Marcaquis who it just feels so replacement level. But at the end of the year, because he plays every day, is going to have decent numbers. But I get it with Seguer because he only has four steals now. He stole one last night.

and he's usually a 20 steel guy. But keep in mind, he has led short stops and batting average three straight years, so he's great there. He's scored a ton of runs. It's not just that he's not helping you in runs. He's actually a big bonus in runs and batting average. He'll probably hit higher than 291. But I get it.

I think what makes, Chris, what makes Seguro feel kind of ordinary is that short stops have been so good this year. Sure. Sure, but a guy who hits $290, the steals are the biggest disappointment for me. I was hoping he would still be that 20 stolen base guy. And if he's more like a 10 stolen base guy, things get a lot harder for him to really be a strongly above average starting shortstop. But he still has been, you know, a solid starter. It's not a superstar, but you didn't really have to pay a superstar price for him. it's nice to have some guys in your lineup that you just don't have to worry about.

This email is from Carl L. Who would you rather have rest of season? Pleasack or Canning? Canning. Pizak, I don't think, has the same strikeout potential. From Sean. Should I consider selling high on Kutel Marte, or is this for real? No, this isn't for real, but the breakout is, to a certain extent, for real.

He is legitimately taking a step forward, and we saw flashes of it last season. He was a swing change guy, so I do think that there's definitely something real there, just not maybe close to a 900 OPS real. Yeah, he's currently, Cotel Marte is currently the number one second basement of points, number three in Rodo.

From Sean, when you do your rankings, what is the cutoff for a must-start player regardless of location or matchup. And then he wants to, well, why don't we do this first? Rank the second baseman for the rest of the season. Brandon Lau, Ozzie Albiz, Nick Senzel, and David Bodie. Albiz, Senzel, Lau, Bodie. All right, now when is the cutoff for must-start player

regardless of location or match-up? So that's probably a pitching question, right? Yeah, I mean, hitter, you don't, you got to go. probably to the end of the top 12 or top 36 at outfield before you really start to get. Just because matchups, they matter certainly, but over the course of the week, it's a lot harder to make that call

when you're talking about seven games, potentially against three different teams and seven different starting pitchers. So I do a little bit less juggling of the hitters in my lineup than I do the pitchers. pitchers, I don't think you can get much past 20 to 25 before you're starting to look at guys that. I think that's a little short because I think like Scott has Domingo Ramon 35th, Heathas of 33rd. Frankie Montas, Masahiro Tanaka, those guys are in their range.

Mike Minor, Brad Peacock, Cole Hamill's. I think it's probably like the top 40. You're starting just about every week. Look at the names. It's hard to get away from it. Like you're not starting all those guys at coursefield, if that's the only matchup, right? That's the only matchup. Coursefield doesn't count in this.

I guess. I don't know. Yeah, maybe it's a little deeper than that, but. Like Frankie Montauchner, you're never sitting. Right now, Mike Soroka, you're never sitting. Mike Minor, you're never sitting. Sure. I think it's top 40.

All right, grade the trade from Dabbs, 16 team points league. Give Alvarez. I would assume you're Don. Oh, yeah. I was like, who? Jordan Alvarez. We're pronouncing a Jordan, by the way. Get Chris Archer.

D? That trade's only good if Alvarez gets demoted. Yeah. I mean, Chris Archer does have more value in a 16 team league, and I know that goes without saying because every player has more value in a 16 team league, but a player like Chris Archer, who relies so much on volume,

has more value in a league with fewer replacement level options. In a 12-team league, you can probably stream something close to what Chris Archer will get you at this point. But in a 16-team league where, you know, potentially 40 more pitchers are rostered,

it's a lot harder to replace him. But even then, you're selling it at Alvarez's high point. Yeah, let me cut you off because I want to get through their emails. But this is great. On the video show, they've actually updated the question with a grade from Chris.

And it says, Chris, colon D. It looks like a smiley face, but that's just wonderful. All right, this is from Big Sven. That's adorable, Adam. Yeah, right, in Lindenhurst. I dropped Erman Marquez for Jordan Alvarez in a 10-team league. Was that a good move? No.

No, you almost certainly have a worse player than Herman Marquez, even in a 10-team league. you know, he was what, 16th in points, 25th in Roto, is what you said? That's right. Thank you for listening. Good job. Yeah, you have a worst player. Even then, and this is what I was talking about earlier,

just because a guy's disappointing doesn't mean he's bad. And in Ramon-Marquez's case, it's clear that he has not been bad this season. He has been a disappointment. All right, Chris, we're going to go, sorry. We have four minutes left and five emails. Okay, this is from. Ryan. We always hear about Gallin, Lazzardo, McKay, even Reyes. Who has the highest floor and the highest ceiling among pitching prospects this year? That's a tough one. I would say Reyes still has the highest ceiling among this group.

Gallin seems like a pretty high floor guy. The only thing that gives me pause is we should see him in the Marlins rotation relatively soon. He's not going to get a lot of wins. And so maybe that makes his floor a little lower. but because he's succeeding so well at the high miners, I think he's not necessarily an ace, but someone who should be able to come in and compete. All right, we got Jesse in Atlanta. Dear Justin, Danny, Maynard, and Adam. You know what?

I think maybe I should save this one for tomorrow because the question is about which closers are going to get moved and who's going to, like speculative closers for the trade. Is that Allison Chains? I think it might be. No, it's tool. No. I think it's tool.

Tool. That's, okay. That's his name, man. From Lou, rank these outfielders in a 12-team league. Dee Gordon, Avi Garcia, Hunter Renfro, Malick Smith, Brian Reynolds, Lorenzo Kane. I don't know the format, just 12 teams. D. Gordon, Avi Garcia, Hunter Renfro, Malick Smith, Brian Reynolds, Lorenzo, Kane. I think Kane's number one, and then it gets really tricky.

man I almost want to put Avi Garcia second he's showing some really interesting signs so far this season I'm cool with that I think I'm going with him second and probably Dee Gordon third and Joe in York Nebraska

who's better rest of season Austin Riley or Manny Machado if I were to make a bet with my friend on this matter what criteria should we use to determine that and should injury issues lead the wager dissolving. I think you probably want to use something like a rate stat, you know, maybe

Wobo or... No, no, no. You just use fantasy production. You do a report in your CBS League, whatever your format is, you do a custom report, you select the dates from this point to this point, and you see who ranks higher, and that is all you have to do,

Chris Towers. Okay. And who do you think would be better? I would probably say Machado will be better, but I feel a lot less confident that Machado will be very good than I do that Riley will slow down considerably. So that's kind of a tough one. I think if one player misses five more games than the other due to injury, the bet is off.

And the last email we have is from the guy with sole possession of the best record in the podcast league asking, how are things going in the podcast league? I'm 4 and 6 but things are looking up my team I made a good trade my team will get better I'm optimistic I think I'm above 500

well then you're in good shit I'm trying to try to pull it up now but I believe I got off to a slow start in that league but I think things have been going better for me let's pull it up podcast listeners league

the new bornographers 6 4-0 doing really, really well. Good for you. All right, so I'm dragging up the rear a little bit. I'm in third to last place, I think. But I'm optimistic, like I said, made a good trade. Got Mike Soroka a few weeks ago.

Got Michael Conforto in the same deal. Scott's in first place. Is he really? Scott kills this. No, second place. Yeah. California penal is the guy who wrote the email. He's in sole possession of first place.

And that's it for Fantasy Baseball today. Thank you for your emails. Really appreciate it. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Chris Towers killing it back from vacation. Tomorrow it'll probably be me and Heath. We'll talk to you then on Fantasy Baseball today.