Fantasy Baseball Today - 06/12: Worryometer, Crappy Pitchers, Awesome Alvarez (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 12, 2019

After discussing Hunter Pence and the best way to set up waivers in your league (4:00), we get into some struggling SPs (6:00). Is it time to drop Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta and Mike Fo...ltynewicz? Also we've got your news and notes (10:30) which include A.J. Minter's return and Corey Seager's injury ... Some players Adam wants you to add (17:00), Christian Yelich's amazing production (21:30) and Worryometer Wednesday (24:40)! Bryce Harper, James Paxton, Shohei Ohtani and more concerning players ... Where will Heath be ranking Yordan Alvarez (37:50)? Who are some new pitching options to know about (40:00)? Who are our listeners asking about (41:50)? Who homered twice yesterday (51:00)? And we recap more of yesterday's pitching performances (53:00) as we talk Bauer, Castillo, Tanaka, Paddack, Turnbull, Means and more ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled and fast. Alvarez and twilight. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris.
Starting point is 00:00:24 Warriorometer Wednesday on June 12. Welcome to fantasy baseball today. I'm Adam Azer. Heath Cummings. How are you today in general? Oh, I am fantastic. It's a great day. Really good.
Starting point is 00:00:39 You ready for the Stanley Cup finals tonight? Game 7? Is that tonight? It's tonight. Okay. You're in. I don't think I have anything going on tonight. Beautiful.
Starting point is 00:00:50 Maybe I will try to turn it on. You are in. I don't think it'll stay on if I turn it on, but I'll try. It will stay on. Believe me. Now, I did watch some soccer yesterday. Hey, you know what? I should have said something because if the men had been playing,
Starting point is 00:01:03 I would have been all about it. I really am all about the women. I mean, it wasn't that excited because I knew they were going to crush them. What do you mean? It wasn't that exciting. It was the best soccer game ever seen. They scored 13 goals, and no one could say they were running the score up because that's one of the tiebreakers is how many goals you score. They just kept going.
Starting point is 00:01:17 It was fantastic, the best soccer game ever. Well, hopefully they'll be a little bit more hotly contested. But way to go. USA, let's get the win there. Okay. So today's Worryometer Wednesday, and I don't have Trevor Bauer on the Woreometer. We have more pressing concerns. He is in the notes.
Starting point is 00:01:34 But every time he pitches, we're going to talk about him. Are we ready to drop Chris Archer, Jose Kintana, Mike Fultenevich? I had a nice night with my fab. I want to talk about that because it's about me. And I have a great quote of the day. Bryce Harper's on the Worryometer. Let's start, though, with Tuesday standouts. Anybody you are just dying to talk about right now?
Starting point is 00:01:54 Yeah, and it's not who you think it is. It's Hunter Pence. Oh. He was 14th home run yesterday, scored three runs. walked three times. Over the last 28 days, he is the number nine outfielder in fantasy. You know who's the hottest hitter in all of the world, Austin Meadows? Hunter Pence has been better over the last month. He's been better than Mookie Betts too. I think we're going to have to take him a little bit more seriously than we have so far. Okay, he is in my hot hitter's segment. Did you
Starting point is 00:02:22 see his home run last night? It was it inside the park cheapy? It was a home run. It was it inside the park cheapy. It was so cheap. It couldn't even get over the pesky pole. It's a broader point, yes. He is batting 284. There is one concerning trend I'm seeing right now with Hunter Pence. In the month of June, he's batting 255. He just hit, look at that home run. That's beautiful.
Starting point is 00:02:48 That is beautiful. So Brockolt was playing right field, and yes, we have the video on our video show, by the way. You get all the way around the bases. Brockholts play. Nobody is even getting the ball. He could have gone around twice. He could have. It's such sloppy effort.
Starting point is 00:03:03 Brockolt was playing because Ben and Tendi got thrown out, and Brockolt just sits there and just like, look, I don't think he got hurt. I didn't read anything about him getting hurt on that play. Anyway, one concerning trend for Pence that I think we need to keep an eye on. He struck out only 19 times of May in May. He's already struck out 14 times in June. For someone that we don't expect to keep it up all year, you know, it's just something to keep an eye on. I'm totally with you, though.
Starting point is 00:03:28 I picked him up in one league, and I haven't taken him out of my lineup. I wish I'd picked him up and more. He and Tommy Lestella, who knew? I got standouts, but they're all in the notes, so we'll get to them. They're not as good as Hunter Pence. They did not hit a cheap home run. Jordan Alvarez actually did hit a cheapy home run last night. I don't know if you saw that one.
Starting point is 00:03:49 You mean my Jordan Alvarez? Because he's not your Jordan Alvarez, because you missed him on waivers. I put it a claim. Waivers, I confirmed. I have to apologize to Jamie, by the way. He made me apologize, so I apologize. waivers reset in that league so every week based on standings waivers reset which i hate which is i really hates you know we had the discussion on the football show about whether or not because
Starting point is 00:04:13 jami was mad at me on the football show so whether or not waivers should reset and what i mean by that is all right so maybe heath you can help me out explain this right so waiver basically at the beginning of each week waivers the waiver order is the reverse standings order so the worst team in the league has first priority, the best team in the league. And then throughout the week, if you make a claim, you go to the back of the line. But then on Sunday night, they reset again before the claims go through. And I don't like that. I understand why it is.
Starting point is 00:04:41 I think it's pretty much the same way in the NFL. I'm not sure exactly about MLB. I just don't like it. Well, I know an MLB, if a guy gets put on waivers, like after the trade deadline, you know, in August, the worst record in the NL or AL, depending on which, that players in. Right. And I know why we do that in baseball,
Starting point is 00:05:03 but the most frustrating thing in fantasy baseball is that there are far more interesting players becoming available on waivers than there are during a baseball season. Yeah. And when you are in the lead in a rotissory league, and every week the guy, a couple spots behind you that's chasing you,
Starting point is 00:05:23 gets priority over you every single week until he passes you in the standings. I think since football is more of a week-to-week ad-drop thing and baseball is more of a year-to-year day-to-day, excuse me, I think I've now come to the point where I would probably support weekly waivers in football, but not in baseball. Because you are making ad drops. I don't support it at all, period.
Starting point is 00:05:47 Well, the truth is everybody, Fab is just the best. But Fab League's, you know, it's not American. You don't want every league to be fab. It could be a little much, I think, but Fab is the best. Okay, so I don't have any standouts to get to right now. Let's talk about this group of pitchers. Would you drop any of these guys? Are you ready to drop them?
Starting point is 00:06:06 It doesn't have to be a blanket drop, but someone interesting comes up, like AJ Minter maybe. He's back. He might be closing for the Braves to give up a run yesterday. Chris Archer, Jake Areata, Jose Cantana, and Mike Fultenevich, four pitchers who are all owned in about 90% of leagues. Archer, five home runs allowed yesterday. Areetta, Kintana Fultenevich.
Starting point is 00:06:30 Ready to drop them? I actually was doing my research this morning and almost sent you a text said we should do a segment called Maybe They Suck. And it was with three of these four pitchers. So I am glad that we were on the same page. You're just a little bit nicer. I know who the one guy who I put in the ready to drop slash do they suck,
Starting point is 00:06:49 whatever it's called, that you didn't is Jose Cantana. You wouldn't drop Kintana. That's not true. I didn't think of putting Jake Arienne. in the maybe they suck section, because I thought we'd already decided that he did. Well, we sort of have, fantasy owners have it, because he's owned in 92% of leagues.
Starting point is 00:07:06 He is a two-star pitcher next week at Washington and Miami, but Jake Areietta is the number 48 starting pitcher in points leagues, and that's his better format. I can't even imagine where he is in Roto leagues, where he is 1.45 whip is clearly dragging him down. But go ahead, Arreeta, Kintana, and Fulte. I'm not spite-dropping any of these pitchers. There would have to be someone that I was actually excited about
Starting point is 00:07:27 adding for me to drop these guys. But I would drop pretty easily, Jake Arrieta. I would drop relatively easily Mike Fultenevich. I would drop painfully, Chris Archer. And I would not drop Jose Cantana. I think he's going to be okay. He's been up and down and up and down this year,
Starting point is 00:07:44 but he pitches on a very good team. And I still expect him to be an above average starting pitcher and fantasy over the rest of the season. So wait, can you... All right, Kentana's the last one you're going to drive. I mean, I can drop him? Can you kind of sum up what you said again? Fultenevich.
Starting point is 00:07:59 Fultenevich and Arieta basically, goodbye. There's someone exciting I want. I will take them. Thank you. Bye. Arieta, I agree. I don't, I sort of want to see one, maybe two more starts from Fultenevich. Because he had, it's three quality starts in his last five.
Starting point is 00:08:15 It's not totally useless. He's had a home run problem. He missed a lot of time. I want to give him a little bit more leash. I went a little too far with the Trevor Bauer fooled you last week. But if ever there was a candidate for a season long fooled you, it was Mike Fultenevich. He didn't fool me.
Starting point is 00:08:36 I didn't ever, he was on every best list that I had this year. I didn't ever think he was going to be as good as he was in 2018. He's just not that good. He might be fine. He might be someone that you want to use on a two-start week or a one-start week against the Marlins. He might even have a good stretch like Julio Turan has. He's better than Julio Toron, I think.
Starting point is 00:08:55 But he's not that good. Okay, okay. And then Archer, you would painfully drop. Okay. Yeah, like, Archer, I was worried about his velocity. It appears to have climbed back up. Because he gave up four home runs in one inning, and three of them came on 95 or 96 mile per hour fastballs.
Starting point is 00:09:12 What Archer said after the game was, I'm throwing the ball right down the middle. Doesn't matter how your stuff is if you throw the ball right down the middle. There were some encouraging signs with Archer. I started him last night. You know, everybody knows how I feel and how I felt. about Archer. Look, if starting pitcher were so deep and they were great players out there, it'd be an easy
Starting point is 00:09:33 call. But I still think I'm hanging on to him. I'm not quite sure why. I'm not sure why. I hope that the pirates don't pick up his option. I hope that's not the case. He's a competitor. He's a fierce competitor.
Starting point is 00:09:47 How much better Garrett Cole got when he left. We saw how much better Tyler Glassnow got when he left. Chris Archer's gotten worse in Pittsburgh. You know what's funny? Just trying to get out. Remember the Ray Searage? We used to talk about Ray Searage. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:00 He was, you know, he was God's gift to pitching. And it hasn't really worked. Tayao needs to get traded so we can win a Siam. Okay, today's sponsors are Sikh geek and Omaha Steaks. You've got to listen to our Omaha Steaks ads because Father Day is coming up. Father's Day, excuse me, coming up. My first Father's Day, Heath, hooray. And we got a great offer for it.
Starting point is 00:10:21 If you go to Omaha Steaks.com, type FBT in the search bar. You'll see the – it's unbelievable. And Seatkeek, love it. Seekkeek. They've been sponsoring us for years. Very appreciative of all of our sponsors. The promo code for Seekkeek for your first purchase is Fantasy to get $10 off. Promocode Fantasy on Seekek. News and notes. So the Braves did recall A.J. Minter. He did pitch yesterday. I believe that they only that they only played eight innings. So Luke Jackson did not come in for a save. Anthony Swarzak got a save.
Starting point is 00:10:51 Yes, Swarzak relieved Minter. But I only, but again, that was the eighth inning. I'm almost positive. So I wouldn't look too much into that. Swarczak stinks anyway. I think Swarzak allowed Minter's run. FI. Fawrack did allow a hit and Mentor did allow a run. Yeah. That's the only part of that I can confirm.
Starting point is 00:11:10 I think that's what happened. But are you picking up A.J. Minter is really the question. I am not picking up A.J. Mentor yet, unless it's one of those leagues that's relatively deep and saves are extremely scared. I'm trying to think of a guy, like, is, I guess the guy I would use, and this guy's ownership is probably going to go up after the last couple of days, but is Ian Kennedy owned in your league? If he is, then I'm considering picking up mint. Ian Kennedy is the closer for the Royals, right? I mean, can we say that?
Starting point is 00:11:45 As far as the Royals have one. Okay. Bigger news than this mentor thing is Corey Seeger heard his hamstring, and he could miss a lot of time, perhaps about six weeks. So that happened real late last night. And Corey Seger rounding the bases. Oh, there is. I love all this video. This is great.
Starting point is 00:12:02 But I don't like seeing that. Corey Seger limping. And Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez could see time at shortstop. Hopefully you've got like, I just got Tatis back in one league and I lost Seeger in that same league so I can plug Tatis in. So hopefully you're in a situation where short stops deep enough. But Corey Seeger out. Brandon Belt day to day with a neck issue.
Starting point is 00:12:23 Yoamancata day to day. Josh Donaldson suspended one game. He did Homer yesterday. Donaldson is appealing the suspension. Joey Gallo, making good progress. I would guess about two weeks away for Gallo. I could be wrong on that, but it doesn't seem like one of those terrible oblique injuries. Austin Meadows is day-to-day with a sore leg.
Starting point is 00:12:40 He will almost certainly sit today, so you're going to want to get Meadows out of your lineup. Just saw this note earlier today. Luke Voight has 30 home runs in 102 games since being acquired by the Yankees. Yesterday, I believe, was the one-year anniversary of his demotion. And Voigt, now 30 home runs. Now it's 103 games after last night, if he played last night in the second game, the doubleheader. I honestly don't remember.
Starting point is 00:13:03 He did. He did play, okay. So 103 games, 30 homers. Ryan McMahon started against a lefty. Now he just has to start hitting again. And Kevin Gosman is on the IL with planter fasciitis, and we're going to talk about some replacement pitchers that you might want to pick up. Maybe you want to give Sean Nukum another chance.
Starting point is 00:13:21 We've got a couple guys coming up from the minors to pitch today. We'll talk about that. Heath, you're not happy that Luke Voight is going to be an All-Star, are you? Or is it the starter thing? We need to clarify. Luke Voight should be an All-Star. First Base in the American League is pretty terrible, and he's been good enough. He's definitely been one of the top four first baseman in the American League.
Starting point is 00:13:43 And when I sent the tweet, all I said was, congratulations to Scott, whose bold prediction was that Luke Voight would be the AL All-Star starter, because Voight is currently in first place in the All-Star voting. He just doesn't deserve it at this point in time. Carlos Santana has been better. You could make the argument that Voight has been the fourth best first baseman in the American League. And I don't really think you could make the argument that he's been the best. You're right.
Starting point is 00:14:09 Santana has been better. And Edwin and Carnacione now has 21 home runs. Edwin and Cardassion is a top five first baseman. That is sneaky. Did you realize that? And I think there's a little bit of... argument to be made between Voigt and Mancini? Sure. Sure. Voit. I mean, Voit, Mancini's got him by a mile in batting average.
Starting point is 00:14:31 Voight is walking, has walked twice as many times, so Voight's got him 28 points on base, but Mancini's slugging 536 and Voight is slugging 504. So I think you're right. I think it's a good point, and it's not like Void is good defensively. So Santana should probably be starting. But you know the way they're doing it is this does not determine the starters, I believe. This determines the runoff for the starters. I think the top three vote getters have like a one-day runoff, and those votes then determine the starter. And that is not near as egregious as the fact in the National League, Ozzy Albies is currently leading over Mike Mustakis at second base, because that's not even particularly close. Mike Mastakis should be the starting second
Starting point is 00:15:16 basement for the National League all-starting. Yes. Yes. Yes. however, Ozzie Albiz is probably the second best second baseman in the National League. Now, Catelle Marte has been better than him and Javier Baez has been better than him
Starting point is 00:15:36 and Max Muncie have been better than him. I think Baez is a shortstop in the voting. I don't. I think Marte is a second baseman in the voting. Is he? Because he's been an outfielder. So that's what I was going to say. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:15:49 I didn't know about the voting. Okay. well, that's a look at your All-Star ballot. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, I'm going to tell you why last night was such a fabulous night for me. Very excited to talk about myself after this on Fantasy Baseball today. Heath, you know, there are those nights where you make your waiver claims or your fed. This is a weekly Fab League for me.
Starting point is 00:16:07 It's actually twice a week, but Tuesday and Wednesday night. And you just, please, let me get my guys. And I got my guys. I got all three of them. So the reason why I'm talking about it is because I actually do think this will be helpful for a lot of people. So I had a $250 budget and I had $148 remaining. I added A.J. Pollock is probably a couple of weeks away
Starting point is 00:16:28 from returning from an elbow infection. Dave Roberts said that he is going to be the center fielder. Even though Verdugo has been better, basically everybody's been better than Pollock. Pollock got off to a terrible start. Verdugo, though, Verdugo has not homered since April 24th and he has gone 10 straight games without an extra base hit. So he hasn't really been that great.
Starting point is 00:16:47 Pollock's on the way back and he is like 60. 5% owned Heath. So I dropped Kyle Tucker for A.J. Pollock. I'd like to own both, but I figure if I'm going to bench a hitter, like, if I'm going to stash a hitter that's not giving me anything, I think it should be Pollock over Tucker. So,
Starting point is 00:17:03 do you think A.J. Pollock needs to be added. People need to begin to get him back in the fold here. They do in a deeper league. I'm not sure in a three outfielder league he's going to matter. I mean, he was a top 100 pig, or top
Starting point is 00:17:19 one 20 pick for sure. He was obviously really bad, but the best of AJ Pollock is a must start player, regardless of four. For sure. For sure. It's just, he's been so many different guys over the last three plus seasons. I don't know exactly who
Starting point is 00:17:35 2019 AJ Pollock is and the only 2019 AJ Pollock I've seen has been bad. That is true. I don't think he's really going to run that much if he runs. If he runs at all, he hasn't yet.
Starting point is 00:17:53 Okay. I mean, I expect a 265 batting average in power and runs. And the power part is the part we don't, I don't know. His career high is 21 home runs. He's always hurt, but sure. Matt Strom is another guy I picked up. He's 64% owned. Matt Strom was bad in his first start.
Starting point is 00:18:12 He was bad in his last start against the Marlins. Then he went on the IL. I have to figure those are somewhat related. in between he had a 253 ERA, 49 strikeouts and 53 in a third. Now, you know, he's not that good. But Matt Strom, I picked up, I dropped Marcus Stroman. Approve the move? If you're not starting Stroman right now, then yes.
Starting point is 00:18:34 I think Strom will probably be better. Like, he's not that good, but he's also thrown 178 in the major leagues. He's got a 3.2.80 RA and he struck out 9.7 per 9. He's pretty good. Yeah, I think you want to own Matt Strom. 64% owned, and the injury is not a long-term thing. I mean, I think there's a chance he's back this weekend. And then the other guy I now own Brendan McKay in four leagues.
Starting point is 00:18:56 That was a $2 bid for McKay for me, a $5 bid for Strom, a $9 bid for Pollock. Nobody's on Brendan McKay. He's 23% owned. He has been so good in the minors. Now, he's basically only pits at AA. I think he's made three starts at AAA, but it's career 197 ERA, a 0.83 whip, a great walk-to-strikeout ratio. he looks like a can't miss pitcher for the raise.
Starting point is 00:19:21 I don't know, by the way, if McKay is eligible at starting pitcher on Yahoo or ESPN. In my Yahoo League, I picked him up and he's only first base eligible, I think, right now. I think that'll change. But in CBS, he's SP eligible. Am I crazy for picking up McKay everywhere? Are you sure this isn't one of those things where they have two Brennan McKay's and you picked up the wrong one? I looked again. You're talking about Yahoo because they do have.
Starting point is 00:19:47 two Otanis. Right. I don't think so. But this is a great question. We're going to get to the bottom of that. But do you think Brendan McKay is among the next guys up? I don't know. But that was the information that we received on Sunday's show.
Starting point is 00:20:07 And I'm willing to just trust that that he is. I don't know what his inning situation is like. He's thrown 56 so far this year. He threw 78 last year. he's never thrown more than 109 and that was in college so I don't know
Starting point is 00:20:24 what the inning situation is at all but yeah he's good all right we gotta see if I picked up the wrong Brendan McKay it's the same guy but sometimes Yahoo gets a little funky
Starting point is 00:20:36 here's your quote of the day a quote from AJ Hinch Astros manager I could not see Yellowitch hit again and I'd be fine he's really good yeah that sums it up Yelich is the number one hitter in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:20:49 He's batting 3.46 with 25 home runs and 14 steals. Can you believe what Christian Yelich is doing? And now the play discipline is amazing. 39 walks to 45 strikeouts. I mean, it's incredible, Heath. Yeah, I was totally wrong thinking he wouldn't be quite as good as he was last year. He's been even better. We didn't think he could maintain a 35% home run to fly ball ratio.
Starting point is 00:21:14 He's got a 36.2% home run to fly ball ratio. I still don't really think he can keep that up, but he's still going to be awesome, so it doesn't matter. Okay, typing in McKay here, Brendan McKay. No, I've got him. He's the only first base eligible. Okay, yeah, Yelich is great. So I asked Chris, I think yesterday,
Starting point is 00:21:36 where he would take Mookie Betts, and I think he said fourth behind Trout, Yelich, and Bellinger. What would be your top four right now? Um, uh, uh, bets, Trout Yelich. What the hell is the matter with you? Can't you just please put Mike Trout ahead of Buckey Betts?
Starting point is 00:22:02 Like, it's so easy to do. Just do it. Today is my rankings update day. Maybe I'll do it today. Like Mike Trout. I mean, ESPN had an article about Trout and Bellinger and how they've cut down their strikeouts. Mike Trout now has more walks than strikeouts. It's like any time this guy has a week. weakness, he fixes it. I'm not sure that Bellinger is still, like,
Starting point is 00:22:23 his numbers for the year are still that great. I'm not sure if he's still in that, like, he's cooled off. Has he? I think over the last 28 days, he's the number 17 first baseman in fantasy. Oh, wow. Well, I mean, it's a slump, right?
Starting point is 00:22:40 But he's still the number two hitter in fantasy. Well, yeah, he was so much better than everyone else beforehand. I don't think he's really striking out more, which is good. But like since the start of May, and maybe a little bit too early, he's hitting 283 with an 890 OPS. It's pretty good. No, that's really good, but that's not like top three in baseball.
Starting point is 00:23:09 So your top four was what then? It was Betts, Trout, Yelich. That's what I was trying to think of. Who would be number four? It's probably Aaron Otto. Could be Aeronado. I would still take Bellinger. I mean, Bellinger's got seven steals and 12 attempts.
Starting point is 00:23:22 He's got eligibility at two positions, first base in outfield. But I would take Trout one, Yelich 2, Bellinger 3, and then maybe Betts 4. But Mike Trout has scored 44 more fantasy points than Mookie Betts, and he's played fewer games. I just think he should consider that. All right, let's do the Worryometer here. I'm a little worried about Heath for keeping Mookie Betts ahead of Mike Trout, but you know, It is what it is. It's a 10 on the Wariometer.
Starting point is 00:23:49 Zero to 10. I crowdsourced this. I asked the people who they wanted to hear about. So they want to hear about Bryce Harper. Bryce Harper going into yesterday was the number 17 outfielder in points leagues and number 30 in Roto, where you don't get credit for the walks. His strikeout rate is through the roof. He had a 215 ISO going into the game. It's actually pretty low for him.
Starting point is 00:24:10 Bryce Harper, zero to 10 on the Wariometer. I've got him ranked 14th. And so I think That's obviously a pretty high concern Because he was a top six or seven outfielder Coming into the year I guess I would have him somewhere Right around a six on the Wuriometer
Starting point is 00:24:27 The strikeouts just aren't getting any better And it's gonna be hard for him to be first round worthy With that kind of strikeout rate Yeah I mean I looked at like last year June and July last year He struck out 68 times in 49 games And has 764 OPS June and July.
Starting point is 00:24:46 August and September, he struck out 52 times and 55 games, much, much better rate, and a 962 OPS, which is terrific. Only nine home runs, but still it's really good. He's so hard to judge, Heath, because he's been a guy, Bryce Harper, who's been different players throughout his career. I still think at the end of the year you're going to get more than 30 home runs, more than 100 RBIs, and a ton of runs, and a great OBP. I still have faith in that.
Starting point is 00:25:15 Yeah, I think all those things are probably true. He's just not quite a top 10 outfielder. Okay. Worryometer on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 0 to 10. Five? Like, for the most part, he's probably been about, he's had a little bit of bad bad ed ball. He hasn't walked quite as much as he did in the minors.
Starting point is 00:25:37 He struck out quite a bit more, but not a lot for a major league hitter right now. It's just he's in a really bad lineup, so I'm not sure you're going to get great run production. He's not going to steal, and the home run numbers have just been okay. What do you make of his 33.9% fly ball rate? It's very low, not a lot of fly balls for a power hitter. And, you know, he had always been more ground balls and fly balls in the minors, but, I mean, this is very low.
Starting point is 00:26:05 Well, I think the thing is, if you have a 33% fly ball rate and you have a 25 plus percent line drive rate, then you're fine. If some of those got balls that are not fly balls are just line drives, and that's kind of what we expected, and that's what he's been most of his career. He's had a line drive rate, 22, 23% or higher. It's 18% right now. It's such a small sample size that can be pretty wonky. I'm not too worried about it yet,
Starting point is 00:26:35 but it is going to prevent him from being a great hitter if it stays at these ratios. Yeah, and it, I mean, obviously the future is really bright for Vlad, but early struggles. All right. Zach Wheeler, zero to ten in the Oriometer for Wheeler. I guess we can't use the it's only against the Nationals thing anymore
Starting point is 00:26:52 because it happened against the Yankees. For the most part, I think Zach Wheeler is going to be a top 30 starting pitcher rest of the season. I'm not particularly concerned, so I'll say it too. Yeah, I'm also not concerned about Zach Wheeler. Some bad luck yesterday,
Starting point is 00:27:08 some bloops that found some grass. Four unearned runs, but still five earn runs, two homers allowed. One of the home runs came after or an error that should have been the third out. What I like about Wheeler is that his previous 11 starts, he had gone seven or more innings and eight of them. He goes really deep into games.
Starting point is 00:27:27 He's one of the hardest throwers in baseball. The swinging strike rate's been really good. The strikeouts are up. I think he's pretty good. I like him too. But the only thing I would take maybe issue with is really just top 30. You know, is he not top 20, Wheeler? And that's a lot for the guy who is 4870.
Starting point is 00:27:45 that's why he wasn't on my Wuriometer, because I've never, and I think some people might have at the beginning of the year, he's been ranked somewhere between 25 and 30 for me almost all year long. Okay. And so that's still, I don't, he's 25th right now before today's rank. He's probably going to fall behind Brandon Woodruff. But other than that, yeah, he's right in that range. Maybe behind Soroka, too, maybe 27th. All right. Next up on the Wariometer after Zach Wheeler is the guy who pitched later.
Starting point is 00:28:15 that night. James Paxton. James Paxton did not make it out of the third inning. He gave up seven hits, six runs, two walks and a strikeout against the Mets. And he has two starts next week against the raise and the Astros at home. Zero to ten worryometer on Paxton. Seven? Like, and this is where what we thought about them before the year definitely comes into play. Because I still think Paxton, I still have him ranked ahead of Wheeler. I'd still rather own him than Wheeler.
Starting point is 00:28:44 But I was hoping he was going to be a low-end ace coming into. the year. He has not thrown even five innings since April. He has had some injury concerns in the past. He has had home run problems in the past. Yeah. I'm worried. So I'm not really worried about anything other than his knee. And he's pitching with a brace. And Paxton said, I don't think that's an issue.
Starting point is 00:29:12 This is just a little bit of a rough stretch right now. I've got to get back to work and figure out what I need to do to help this team win. There was a time just before he went on the IL where he had two starts, 14 innings, five hits, no runs, two walks, 24 strikeouts against Boston and Kansas City. Remember the game against Chris Sale? He just was electric, and that's what I thought he was going to be. The ironic thing is going into yesterday's start, he had a 0.34 ERA at home and a 686 ERA on the road. People were worried about Paxton because his numbers away from Safeco last year weren't very good. They were worried about going to Yankee Stadium. Well, that hasn't been a factor. I don't think that is a factor at all.
Starting point is 00:29:51 I'm very confident in his performance. His ERA went up from 311 to 404 yesterday. And this is after two bansters. I mean, his numbers look great, just the innings weren't there. I just think that was kind of weird and fluky. But now with the knee injury, and remember I mentioned, his first start off the IL, he only pitched four innings, but they were great.
Starting point is 00:30:11 They kind of dug around the mound to give him a softer landing spot for his knee. So I cannot just ignore the knee brace. I cannot ignore the knee. That is what concerns me about Paxson. And that's why he was somebody that I had actively been trying to buy low on. After this start for me, I'm very
Starting point is 00:30:30 cautious with injuries. And sometimes it bites me. And I won't do it. And it's just been three starts and he may just be fine after this. But in the three starts since he came back from the IALE is a 23% strikeout rate, the 13% walk rate.
Starting point is 00:30:46 The last two years before this season, 28 and 32%. So right around 30% strikeout rate. So that's down considerably. And a 6% or 7% walk rate, that's almost doubled. He's just not good if he's pitching like this. Yeah, he looked terrible yesterday. So I think there is concern about Paxton. For me, it's mostly the knee.
Starting point is 00:31:08 And obviously, look, I was so concerned about Chris Sale that I refused to make Bilo offers on him because I thought he might go on the IL. he might be out for a while. This may be something serious. So just to know that I am a very, y'all play scared. I do when it comes to injuries.
Starting point is 00:31:21 I don't want to give up a lot for a guy that's hurt. And sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. A lot lower than I ever had dropped sale. Understandable. Patrick Corbyn, zero to ten on the Wariometer. I got some quotes after the game from Patrick Corbyn. But he got bit up. Do these quotes make me feel better.
Starting point is 00:31:44 Okay. Do you want to give the 0 to 10? Well, I was going to give the number after the quotes. I don't know how the quotes are going to influence my worryometer number. Okay, you say the word influence very oddly. But here we go. This is all from the Washington Post. Everyone wants to talk about my slider and how effective it is,
Starting point is 00:31:59 but it really can't be without fastball command. It starts with my fastball. Even if the slider is the pitch I want to get to, I'm just not locating right now. I don't know. I feel good overall. I'm close to getting it all back to normal. And then another note,
Starting point is 00:32:14 not a quote, from the Washington Post. He threw his four-seam fastball fewer than he has all season in the last two-stores, basically trimming his arsenal down to a slider and a sinker, which is also referred to as a two-seam fastball. So has Corbyn become predictable? Quote, no, I throw four-seemers more to lefties and recently have faced righty-heavy lineups, end quote. So there's been this thing where some players on his own team had said, or at least player and coach, the slider doesn't seem to be as effective right now. Corbin says that's because of his fastball command.
Starting point is 00:32:47 If that's true, then it would kind of quell my fears a little bit with Corbyn. Where are you on the Worryometer, 0 to 10? I would say a 4 or a 5, just because we had some concerns coming into this year. Last year was really the only year he'd been anywhere close to that good. At a 30% strikeout rate for the first time his career, had never been over 21%. His walk rate was down. Both those things have kind of reversed.
Starting point is 00:33:12 He's giving up a lot of hard contact. you look at the effectiveness of the slider. Last year, he had a 53.6% whiff rate on that pitch. This year is 48%, which is still really good. Last year, you got a 190 Wobah. This year it's 207. That's still really, really good. His sinker, he needs to stop throwing it.
Starting point is 00:33:32 He is really, I know he's cut the four seamer down, and it's not been a very good pitch either, but the sinker is just getting lit up. Yeah, well, what he said, as I mentioned, I know you heard it, but just in case you didn't. He throws the four seamer more to lefties, and recently he's faced two right-handed heavy lineups,
Starting point is 00:33:50 and that's where he throws the two-seamer. But is it that the two-seamor is so bad, or is it that he's not locating it? You know, if it's just the command issue, then I think better days are certainly ahead for Patrick Corbyn, and that would be somebody that I'd want to buy low on. Yeah, I mean, he throws the slider more than he throws anything else, but he has thrown, last year he threw the slider 41% of the time.
Starting point is 00:34:14 This year it's down to 36.8% and that is his best bit. This is philosophically, though, is why guys with smaller arsenals are riskier. If one pitch goes bad, you're in a lot of trouble. He can't locate his basketball right now. Even his curveball, which he doesn't throw very often. He threw 10% of the time last year, or 9.3, and he's cut that in half to 4. He's just made his arsenal even smaller. So where is he in your rankings?
Starting point is 00:34:41 Where will he be later today? Patrick Corbyn. he will still be ahead of Trevor Bauer. He's going to be somewhere right in that Luis Castillo Mick. Okay. Shohey Otani was another guy on the Wariometer. He homered yesterday. He's very bad against lefties.
Starting point is 00:35:00 I sat him this week because there are more lefties to come. Let's keep an eye on Shohei Otani. I wish he were running. Heath, I'm just going to wrap it out. I'm going to give Otani a six because the struggles against lefties have continued. and if he can't hit lefties and he doesn't steal, then I don't think Otani needs to be owned in 91% of leagues. But keep him for now and we'll see what happens.
Starting point is 00:35:20 In a weekly league, I'd give him a nine. Okay, fair enough. When we come back, we'll talk about Jordan Alvarez. We'll talk about some new pitching options. We've got some of your emails. We're going to play the welcome back music for a bunch of players. Eloy Jimenez is homer three times in his last four games. David Bodie doesn't even need to start to be good.
Starting point is 00:35:37 That's how right Heath was about David Bodie. That's coming up next on Fantasy Baseball today. Jordan Alvarez has played two games, and he is homered twice. So, where are you going to put him in your updated rankings, Heath? Definitely a top 40 outfieler. I'm not sure that he'll get into the top 30, but this is what this guy does. He rakes. Yeah, it's impressive.
Starting point is 00:36:00 What a cheap homer, though. Look at that cheap. Whoa. Don't get me. I don't ever want Mr. Yankees fan to ever say cheap Homer again for the rest of his life. 90% of your team's home runs are cheap homers. It's true. I'm sorry for cursing, by the way. Look at that cheap home run.
Starting point is 00:36:16 Wow. All right. So we had an email from Max in Atlanta who wants to know in a 10-team six outfield or Roto league. Should he have Conforto or Alvarez? He has to drop one of them. I think I'd still rather have Michael Conforto. There is still some risk that Alvarez will not be in the major leagues in six weeks,
Starting point is 00:36:38 even with his two home runs and two games. And Conforto is a guy that you just start and do. don't think about it. If you look at this list that we have up here of the last five players to Homer in their first two career games, and this is a list I got from Christopher Kamka of NBC Sports Chicago. It's Jordan Alvarez, two home runs in his first career games, first two games. Jordan Alvarez, Francisco Arcia, Aaron Judge, Trevor Story, and Joey Gallo. I don't know that any of them have...
Starting point is 00:37:10 Francisco Arcia is the date wrong there? Maybe. It must be wrong. That was, no, no. 2018. Okay. Not Orlando. Francisco Arsia. No, I know. All right, well, that's what the guy tweeted, almost positive. But anyway, I don't think any of them had good seasons.
Starting point is 00:37:30 Aaron Judge was terrible in his, not his exactly rookie season, but the first season that he played. Trevor Story was good because of Corse Field. Joey Gallo, I don't think he was very good his first season. But Alvarez, I think, is more ready than those guys. What do you think? Yeah, I think he is, I think he's going to be good as long as he stays in the marriage years.
Starting point is 00:37:54 I was not doubting the Francisco Arcia date so much as doubting me not remembering him. Okay, I'm with you. Do we have some new pitching options? We're going to go through the remaining segments fairly quickly here, just so we can get to a lot of stuff. Do we have some new pitching options? We have Sean Newcomb, who may start against Philadelphia this week with Gosman on the IL. Obviously, Dallas Keiko could fit into a role there eventually.
Starting point is 00:38:20 Jordan Yamamoto is going to start for the Marlins today. Mitch Keller is going to start for the Pirates today, and the Phillies have an opening in their rotation. Jared Eichoff is moving to the bullpen, they haven't decided what they're going to do yet. Vince Velasquez may be an option. I don't know. I think he's been pretty good in Middle Relief. But do we have any new pitching options that you're interested in with Newcomb, Yamamoto, Keller and maybe a Philly.
Starting point is 00:38:42 I think Keller should just be in the Pirate's rotation. I do believe that he's interesting. He's someone I would be looking to pick up in a league where I was desperate for pitching. And then the other one that's interesting, and I've always been a big fan of his, it's Sean Newcomb. He has been an absolute stud since he was recalled.
Starting point is 00:38:59 In his last outing, he worked his way up to four and two-thirds inning, struck out sick batters. He's made 16 appearances since being recalled and has a 1.42 ERA with 20. 21 strikeouts and 19 innings. Most importantly, he's only walked two batters over that stretch. If he's got the control under control, he might push one of those other starting pitchers
Starting point is 00:39:21 once Dallas Keikl is ready. Yeah, it's actually a really good speculative event. Why didn't Zach Allen get called up? That's a little discouraging, because Jose Orania might have to go on the IL. But hey, maybe Zach Allen will get called up. Also, you didn't hear yesterday on team name Tuesday, Zach Gallin Fanakis?
Starting point is 00:39:38 No. It's great. Why is it that even the good team names you don't like? I like some team names like Yasmani Money, Tomas Problems. Well, now I know why you don't like the Zach Gallant Fadacca's team name. All right, quick round of emails here. This is Russ in Maine. Buster Posey or Yaddy or Malina rest of season.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Yaddy. Let me tell you the most annoying stat. I actually hate this stat. Yadir Malina, before going on the IL, was batting 265 with a 690-0.000. He had four home runs. 690 OPS. And he was the number five catcher in points and number eight in Roto.
Starting point is 00:40:18 Because he plays all the time. So his fantasy value will be better than his actual value. And he actually had a good game yesterday and his return from the IL. This is from No Name. I really want to pick up Scott Kingery. Would you drop any of these guys for Kingery? Lorenzo Kane, Shinsu Chu,
Starting point is 00:40:36 Nomar Mizarra, DJ LaMayhew, Daniel Murphy. and Joey Vado. Would you drop Kane, Chu, Mizara, the Mayhew, Murphy, or Vado for Kingery? See, the thing is, it sounds like you only have really three outfielders. I like Kingery a lot
Starting point is 00:40:58 because of the fact that he can play three different positions. The only one that I would drop for him, I think, is Mazzara. Mazzara is, again, always, the most overrated and over-owned player in fantasy. He just isn't very good. I'm sorry. Chris from Salt Riverfield is in a 10-team points league. Should I trade Austin Riley for Catelle-Martee?
Starting point is 00:41:19 I need a second basement. Should I trade Austin Riley for Cotel-Marté? I don't feel like you're selling high enough here. We aim just a little bit higher. I know Cotel-Marte has been awesome, and if you need a second baseman, it's a deal that, yes, I would probably do, but I do feel like we should be able to do better.
Starting point is 00:41:40 Okay. Chris, that was Chris, sorry. This is from Dan. Subject line, Heath sucks in all caps. Just kidding, got your attention. It did get my attention. Good job. Deer snap, crackle, pop, and marshmallow.
Starting point is 00:41:53 Is that part of Rice Krispies? Do they have those now? I don't know. I don't eat cereal. You don't eat cereal. You don't like ice cream. What a weirdo. What starting...
Starting point is 00:42:03 I like ice cream. It's delicious. I know. Which starting pitcher would you trade Bellinger for, straight up? Shurzer. He already has Shurzer because I responded to the email. and said that. Anyone else? I would trade Bellinger for Verlander.
Starting point is 00:42:24 Gary Cole? I would trade him for Garrett Cole. Jacob de Grom. Garrett Cole might be the end of the line for me, but I'd probably, like, if I was really desperate for pitching, I'd probably trade him for DeGrom. All right, next email. This is, by the way, a very egotistical, showy show for me. So take that, everybody. This is from Davin.
Starting point is 00:42:47 Subject line, Rank Narris. Hector Nairus has been used as a full-time closer for over a month now. Azer deserves some credit because it was called very early on, but I also don't think it's been acknowledged on the podcast. So rank Hector Nairus. Good job, Adam. You were right about Hector Nairus. He might get 30 saved.
Starting point is 00:43:06 I am going to move him up to number 15 in my relief pitcher rankings, number 13 amongst actual relievers. So, Narris, I mean, I think he could be top five. If he stays the Phillies closer, he's going to be closing for a first place team. He's great. His numbers are awesome. He is a really good pitcher. I do worry a little bit about what happens if they get healthy.
Starting point is 00:43:33 But he's been fortunate in that everybody's dropping like flies around him. But David Robertson will eventually come back. But I do think you're probably a little low on him. Let's just go through it. Let's just go through it real quick. We can do it real quick. Roberto O'Zuna. No.
Starting point is 00:43:50 You just stop me when I should have him right down. Why don't I start where I think he should be? You said you're going to put him 15th? I think he should be ahead of Felipe Vasquez, Sean Doolittle, and Ken Giles, and maybe even Kimball. So I think it should be more like 11 or 12. Okay, you said five earlier, so we'll meet in the middle.
Starting point is 00:44:10 He could be top five, yes. Okay. Thank you for indulging me Heath. This is from Bobby. Give me one reason to roster Victor Robles in a five outfielder. league. Steals aren't bountiful enough. And Heath, I will tell you that Victor Robles is the number 53 outfielder in points
Starting point is 00:44:26 league. So you definitely don't need to roster him there. You could just to stash him, but you don't need him. And he's number 47 in Roto. Because the nine steals, the nine home runs, they're just not enough. And he's batting 236. So give me a reason to roster Robles. He's still young. I still think he's a better hitter than he has shown so far. and even with not hitting as well as we expected, he's been a worthwhile starter in a five outfielder league regardless of format.
Starting point is 00:44:55 So I think you should own him because he's good enough to start. And I expect he'll even be better. He's not. He has to be better. This is not good enough to start. And now he's back batting at the bottom of the order. If you are number 47 and there are 60 outfielder started. He hasn't missed any time.
Starting point is 00:45:14 Like, you're probably right. We're not far enough into the season for that argument. we might if he plays 162 games and finishes 47 then I would listen to it I mean he's probably better than some of the outfielders I'm starting in my five outfielder league so uh and then last email more azer glory subject line this is from don mint chocolate chip and bananas hi adam thanks for the ice cream tip your combo is delicious bonus team name Tuesday minter chocolate chip and santana I'm telling you mint chocolate chip banana is the best combo you
Starting point is 00:45:47 you've never had almost as good as scrambled eggs and strawberry jelly. I'm glad we're hurrying through this section. That was pretty quick. Okay, that was a quick pat on the back, and I'd need some time to queue up some music, Heath. So I guess what I would ask you is if you were going to an ice cream store, what music? Oh, never mind, I don't care anymore about your ice cream.
Starting point is 00:46:07 I'm a big Rocky Road fan. I don't see Rocky Road very often. You know what I'd say to what Rocky Road? Welcome back if I saw it. Here are some guys who are coming back. back, Heath. Justin Upton could be back very soon. He's 81% own.
Starting point is 00:46:23 Needs to be owned everywhere. Justin Upton and Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge also could be back very soon. So that's three outfielders. They could be back next week, both Stanton and Judge. I'm just going to leave this on the background. Dee Gordon's back.
Starting point is 00:46:38 He batted eighth. Malick Smith let off. We'll keep an eye on that. And got two more hits and stole his 17th base. Add him, please, so I can stop saying it. J.P. Crawford could be back. this weekend for Seattle. Yadir Malina's back. Trevor Williams is going to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:46:55 He's not bad. Let's see his ownership percentage, Trevor Williams. What do you think it is? What do you think it should be? And what do you think it is? Trevor Williams. I think it should be 67%. And I think it is 38%.
Starting point is 00:47:07 Okay. Let's find out. Drum roll, please. Oh, my. Are you serious? What? You cheat? I did not
Starting point is 00:47:19 cheat it at all, I promise. I cheat a lot. This is not one of the times I cheated. You were wrong about what it is, but he is actually owed in 67% of weeks. So that's... Okay, so that's accurate. That's what he should be.
Starting point is 00:47:31 Yolisha Seed will likely start on Monday for Milwaukee. You don't need him. Buster Posey should be back today. Matt Adams should be back today. Mike Clevenger... This song's starting to annoy me. Mike Clevenger hit 99 miles
Starting point is 00:47:43 per hour during his rehab start. He's going to be back very... soon. He was awesome in very small sample size, and he's been good now two years in a row. Is Mike Clevenger going to be a top 10 starting pitcher for you? No, no, no. He will be a top 20 starting pitcher for sure.
Starting point is 00:48:06 The question will be, how do I rank him in relation to Trevor Bauer? Yeah, exactly. What's the answer? Well, I don't have to make that decision yet. I'd like to see how his next rehab start. He'll probably be right behind Trevor Bauer, depending on Trevor Bauer's next start. And you still have Biber ranked ahead of Bauer? Currently, it's Bieber.
Starting point is 00:48:30 He's not going to be in my top 15, I'll say. No, that's not true because James Paxton's probably falling behind those guys. So he's probably going to be somewhere in the Bieber, Castillo, Berrios Bauer range. Which is in the 15 to 20 range. Yeah. Okay. And Jose Altova and George Springer should begin rehab assignments this weekend. And when they come back, we'll play the welcome back music again.
Starting point is 00:48:53 All right, double dongs yesterday. Anthony Rendon. Anthony Rendon is unbelievable. He's the number four-third baseman in both formats. But in terms of fantasy points per game, that's his better format. 4.52 fantasy points per game. No one, Aronado is your number one-third baseman. Aronado is averaging 4.23 fantasy points per game.
Starting point is 00:49:13 If I were drafting again today, Anthony Rendon, for me, is without question, a first round pick in points leagues and probably a second round pick in Roto leagues. What do you think about that? Yeah, I think he's right there. You could make the argument for him over Bregman or Aeronado. I would still have Bregman and Aeronado ahead of him, but he's right there. Max Muncie has been really good. Top 10 first baseman, top 10 third baseman, top five second baseman, eligible at all three positions. He homered twice yesterday.
Starting point is 00:49:41 He's backing up what he did last year, Max Muncie. I love that after today in the top five of my second base rankings will be Mike Mustakis and Max Muncie because they are both just the picture of what you view a second baseman being. It's pretty funny. But yeah, the versatility is nice for Muncie and he hits lefties better than he hits righties. That's one thing about him. They were sitting him against lefties last year. There's no need to do it. They're not doing it.
Starting point is 00:50:07 He's playing every day. And Brian McCann, Homer twice yesterday, and we can probably ignore. this. He's got good numbers this year, but he just doesn't play enough. If McCann overtakes Tyler Flowers and plays, let's say, four out of six games or something, then he might be, he's a top, I think he's the number 21 catcher in fantasy. He might be like, you can use him in two catcher leagues. I picked him up in our 24 team dynasty league when McCann went on the, or when Posey went on the IL and started in this week, so I was happy about the double dong. I'm going to skip the hot hitters segment and go to pitchers. Just Ely. Just say Eel.
Starting point is 00:50:41 Eloy has been very good. Three homers in his last four games. And when E. homers, he crushes it. Not like that Jordan Albert. And David Bodie. Yeah, but he sat. I mean, that's the thing about Bodie. He did sit.
Starting point is 00:50:53 He's had a great week. If he gets zero stats the rest of the week, it will not have been a great week. If he gets zero stats the rest of the week, then I'll do something stupid on the podcast. Okay. Rotation. Okay, let's do some rankings. Castillo Bauer. to head yesterday. Barra walked five guys, but he only threw 118 pitches.
Starting point is 00:51:19 Tanaka, Paddock. I wouldn't want to start him in his next start. Seriously? I don't, I'm going to look right now, but I do not think, and I brought up the 115 thing earlier, I believe his last outing wasn't that many pitches, right? It was at least 107. He throws 107 every time. By the way, I'm not sure about that, so please confirm.
Starting point is 00:51:41 but I'm pretty sure it was like 107 or more. No, his last one was 119. He always does it. They never take him out. They never take him out. It's insane. All right, Castillo Bauer are going to be 1 and 2.
Starting point is 00:51:55 Who do you like better? Castillo. Next up, Tanaka, Chris Paddock, and Brad Peacock. How would you rank Tanaka, Paddock, and Peacock? We're going to go with a points ranking so that we can get the full value of Peacock. And I will go Paddock, Peacock. TNACA.
Starting point is 00:52:13 And I think I might still have Peacock ahead of TNACA in Roto leagues, but it's very, very close for those two. Paddock, I still have a little bit ahead of those two. I'm getting kind of frustrated and losing confidence in Chris Paddock. Yeah. I think that, I mean, he's settled back down. He's not going to be great in points leagues because he's not going to give you a ton of innings.
Starting point is 00:52:37 So why would you rank him ahead of Tanaka? Have you seen Masahiro Tanaka? Like, there was one time where I really was wrong on Masahiro Tanaka, and he had been really good for like three starts in a row. Have you seen the rest of his season? Yeah, look. Okay, so look at his overall numbers. He has a 350-80RA and a 1-18 whip.
Starting point is 00:52:59 He's 4 and 5. I assume those are both worse than Paddock. Oh, they are. They are for sure. In terms of strikeouts, though, let's see. 74 strikeouts in 83 innings. Paddock has 72 strikeouts in 6.5. 65 and two thirds.
Starting point is 00:53:13 Interesting. He's given up 14 runs in his last 18 innings. Yeah, so there's one thing with Tanaka. It's now kind of well documented. His splitter's been bad this year, and that's weird. So, look, Scott, like a couple months ago, maybe a month and a half ago, we talked about Brad Peacock, who had been struggling. And Scott said, his slider hasn't been good.
Starting point is 00:53:36 He's worried. I said, well, look, if his slider was so good last year and it hasn't been good this year so far, what's going to happen if Peacock finds the slider? Because he wasn't that bad, so if he finds a slider, he's going to be really good. Lo and behold, he's been very good. If Tanaka finds his splitter, which has been his bread, butter, his entire career, he's going to be pretty good. And I just think there's more longevity with him than Paddock. Paddock is showing some really troubling trends to me. Yes, but during the time that he's showing those trends, he's still been better than Tanaka over that stretch. Well, Tanaka is having
Starting point is 00:54:12 his worst stretch. So is Paddock. Yes, yes. But I feel like I guess maybe I'm buying the- We're downgrading Paddock because he's not going to throw 200 innings and he's probably not going to throw 180 innings. Sinaka's thrown 180 innings once in his career. Okay.
Starting point is 00:54:29 All right. Okay. All right. Okay. Paddock is 47th and points 23rd in Rodo, by the way, at starting pitcher. Fringy starting pitchers. Should we be adding these guys? Spencer Turnbull.
Starting point is 00:54:40 Why is he only 67% own? especially with his two starts this week against Kansas City and Cleveland, and next week he's at Cleveland. Spencer Turnbull, John DuPontier was bad. Peter Lambert was all right. Five innings, one run, three strikeouts against the Cubs at home. Dakota Hudson, the most ground balls in baseball, the highest ground ball rate. Dakota Hudson, 66% owned.
Starting point is 00:55:02 Last eight starts, he's got a 240 ERA. He will hurt your whip. Keep that in mind. Mike Leak, John Means, Mike fires. Turnbull, Duplante, Lambert, Hudson, Leak, Means, Fires, anyone you like there? Turnbull definitely needs to be owned in more leagues than he does.
Starting point is 00:55:19 I still have questions about whether he's going to be anywhere close to as good as he has been. But he has been awesome against the Royals, and he'll get to pitch against them a few more times. He'll be very good, I would assume. The problem is he doesn't get to face the Tigers and the twins are good. We don't know what the Indians anymore. Yeah. Turnbull's a top 60 starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:55:39 What about means? I will move Dakota Hudson into my top. 75. And Mike Leak, I started him in two leagues because he was a two-start pitcher and because he'd been pitching deeper into games. I think he's someone that you, like, you should have probably used him this week, and next week against Baltimore, you should probably use him. Okay.
Starting point is 00:55:58 Mike Leak, though, can really kill you because he's given up 20 home runs this year. What about John Means? 58% owned. His numbers are pretty similar to Turnbulls, I'd say. Yes. I think Turnbull might be, I think Means is actually. been a little better than Turnbull. But I think Turnbull has more long-term staying power slash upside.
Starting point is 00:56:20 I do think Means is overlooked at 58%. It should probably be around 70. He is going to be in that Dakota Hudson range for me where he's not quite a top 60 starting pitcher, but he's definitely in the top 75. Bullpen stuff. Michael Gibbons got a save. He has two saves in his last three appearances spanning eight days for the Orioles. Jose LeClerc, I mean, look, I don't know what to say anymore.
Starting point is 00:56:42 It's three bad outings in a row. He looked so good before that. He should go in the maybe he sucks section. Maybe we need to give Sean Kelly a little more love. Because the Rangers are like six games over 500 or something. So they are good, at least right now. And if Kelly's the closer, then he should be owned. Jalen Beeks is a bullpen option, but he's not a closer.
Starting point is 00:57:10 But he might be able to help you with ratios. 5-0, Jalen Beeks with a 255 ERA. He's good. He is, and you know, when you don't, he's always used with an opener. He doesn't start. That actually makes it, I don't know about easier, but maybe easier to get a win. It makes it impossible to get a quality start and easier to get a win, yes. Trevor May got a save for Minnesota, but Taylor Rogers was unavailable.
Starting point is 00:57:37 I think Blake Parker was available, though. And Ian Kennedy, we already mentioned, he has five saves. He actually has pretty good numbers other than his E. R.A, which is 371. The whip is bad, too. But the walk-to-strike-out ratio is spectacular. So I think he's probably better than those numbers as a reliever. If we take a look at Deep League's, Jason Vargas.
Starting point is 00:57:58 He's got three straight quality starts, I believe. I don't know how he's doing it, but I'm not interested in Vargas. He's at the Reds this week and he faces the White Sox next week. I would not be surprised if he's good in his next two start. Jason Vargas? No, that was your... Never mind. I was reading your notes,
Starting point is 00:58:19 but I read the wrong picture. I missed the name in between. Yeah, he's at the Braves this week. He's going to be awful. I think Jason Vargas has two starts next week. At the Braves and at the Cubs. He would probably be awful. Yeah, there you go.
Starting point is 00:58:31 Ariel Harado is the guy that Heath was trying to talk about. At Cincinnati this weekend, the White Sox next week. Harado has a 302 ERA. Not a lot of strikeouts, but four straight quality starts. They've come at the Angels, against the Royals, against the Orioles, but last night at Boston and 18 strikeouts and 18 innings in his last three starts.
Starting point is 00:58:51 So Harato, 25% own. He's interesting in a deep league sense, at 25% own he's owned in a lot of deep leagues, but I wouldn't be upset if his ownership was as high as 40%. I don't think he's actually got like, oh, you're going to own him in a standard 12-team league in anything other than a two-start week upside, but he could be very useful in AL only
Starting point is 00:59:14 or 15 team league. And Carson Kelly. He started just three of the last six games for Arizona after starting three consecutive games a couple of weeks ago. He's 18% owned. He's obviously the best hitting catcher for Arizona. His slash line is really good. He has an 858 OPS.
Starting point is 00:59:34 18% owned Carson Kelly. Do you think that Carson Kelly leads baseball in times he was mentioned on this podcast? By a number of fantasy points he scored? You think I talk about him too much? Not too much, but more, like, relative to the number of fantasy points he has scored, I think probably more than any other player. Maybe. Maybe Joey Votto. Kelly, I just, look, Kelly was a catching prospect. Right.
Starting point is 01:00:06 If he plays every day, like, he could be top five catcher. So. That's, that's, that's, let's pull the reins back on that. How hard is it to be a top five catcher? That's it? How hard it would be a top five catcher? When I said he plays every day... It's very, very hard to be a top five catcher.
Starting point is 01:00:21 There are five very good catchers. All right, top eight. So when I say plays every day, he's not going to play every day, but like catcher every day. Right. And Kevin Newman is leading off for the pirates now and he's batting 310. There is absolutely nothing else except for some batting average. Two homers, two steals in 40 games. But Kevin Newman is a name we haven't said.
Starting point is 01:00:40 And now we have. I'll have to say his name about a hundred more times to give him that race. of mentions to fantasy points that would exceed Carson Kellys. All right, we're out of here. We'll be back on Thursday with some fantasy regulators for sure. And I don't know. I'll figure something else out. See you later, everybody.
Starting point is 01:00:59 We'll talk to you Thursday.

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