Fantasy Baseball Today - 06/13: Worryometer; Miggy Replacements; Trout is Good (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 13, 2018

Let's just take some time to talk about how great Mike Trout is (2:30)! Then we're ranking LAD OFs (6:08) and giving Miguel Cabrera replacements (8:44). And is John Hicks a Top 12 C rest of season (16:34)? ... Bullpen notes (22:40) including some middle relievers to consider for ratios, Worryometer (27:15) on Ozzie Albies, Javier Baez, Justin Smoak and more. Plus we have a listener edition of the Worryometer (37:50) with Gary Sanchez, Miguel Sano, Carlos Martinez and others ... Reviewing the double dongers from yesterday (49:30), Brian Anderson (51:15) and a slew of SPs to consider (52:05) as we note Chase Anderson's uptick in velocity before we preview today's matchups ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Everyone, in case you didn't know, Mike Trout is really, really good. Welcome to the show. Also, the Dodgers are raking right now, and we are going to rank some Dodgers. But it's not all good news. It is Worryometer Wednesday. And actually, we have some listener Worryometer suggestions. Well, that's what they're good at. Those listeners love to work.

They do. Worry warts out there, you listeners. I'm Adam Azor. That's Scott White, and here's Chris Towers. Do you guys worry? Just like in general, like, do you, do you, like, live with, like, a constant sense of dread? I actually don't feel like I, well. Can I tell you, can I tell you something funny?

Can I tell you something funny about me? Um, Monday, you guys don't play much video games, right? I wish I did. I don't. But not at the stage of my life now. Well, so there's the big, uh, E3 Expo happening right now. And so that's when all the video game companies share all their video game things. And, you know, they announced the Super Smash Brothers yesterday, which looks awesome.

And there's this game called The Last of Us. Scott, I was telling you about it yesterday. Mm-hmm. It's the best game I've ever played and the sequel is coming out. I stayed up until, like, 2.30 in the morning on Monday night because I made the mistake of watching the trailer for that game at, like, midnight. Oh, gosh. And it freaked me out so much that I could not fall asleep. Okay, Chris.

Great. Chris, I just sent you a link. That is my life. I just sent you a link, Chris. That is, like 13-year-old me right there. Yeah, it's pretty dorky. I read last night I read the scariest thing I've ever read in my life, no joke. And I said it to Chris.

That's pretty scary. You tell me if I should say it on the air. I'm thinking, no. It was an article in The New Yorker, and it just terrified me. So, yes, I do worry. Now, let's talk about baseball. Mike, oh, by the way, coming up on the show, let's see. Ken Giles got a save.

I want to talk about some middle relievers that you might want to pick up because their ratios are awesome. Worryometer on Albies, on Enciarte, on a couple of Chicago Cubs. a lot of your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Mitch Hanigar homeered twice. He's been pretty cold, but he's heating up a little bit for home runs now in June. Ryan Healy's been much colder than that, and he homered twice. D.D. Gagorius has been even colder, and he homered twice. So we'll talk about the double-dongers.

But, man, Chris, you are loving Mike Trout. You always hated Mike Trout. Oh, yeah, for sure. No, come on. Don't put that evil on me. That true. So, yeah, he's two more home runs, four in his last two games. And he is the number one player, but has not been as good as Mookie Betts on a per game basis this year.

This is, like, technically correct, the best kind of correct. But also, like, yes, Mokey Betts has been slightly better than Mike Trout this season. And, like, Jose Al Tuvei was probably a little, well, last year, not the best example. But two years ago, Jose Al Tuvei was probably. slightly better than Mike Trout. But like, it always requires some Herkulean effort by some schmo to get slightly better than Mike Trout while Mike Trout's just like, like Mike Trout's just like doing his thing, having a normal Mike Trout season.

And it requires like some dude to just like have found, summon the strength of the gods in order to just barely eclipse him. And it's like, it's pretty clear who the best player in fantasy. and who the best player in baseball is, even if some other guy might be sluggie. Like, Moogie Betts was better for 49 games. Okay, all right. Well, let's not sell him a lot more.

Short, because he does have his 735 slugging. Of course, Mike Trout's the best. But I believe, I believe it was you. Honestly, I might be wrong about this. But I think last week you said, like, there's a big four now with Betts and Jose Fernandez. No, Ramirez. Jose Ramirez. And who, is there one other guy?

and Trout obviously. Al-Tube and Trout. Yeah. It may have been me. I think it was both of you. It was something we talked about when we were both on. We talked about it with pitchers as well. I think there's like, you know, we came into the season thinking there were these specific

tiers and maybe the tiers have, like maybe at pitcher there's a big two and then there's like five other guys who are in the Kershaw tier. Maybe it among hitters it's like Trout on his own little island and then everyone else. Yeah, it is. I mean, Trout would be, if we were redrafted today, there'd be no case for anyone but Trout. And there shouldn't have been coming into this season either, but a certain friend of ours decided to make one. But, yeah, I think right after Trout, those other three could probably go in any order. Right.

Now, Trout is batting 310. He's got 23 homers and 13 steals, and he hasn't been caught stealing. And, Chris, you were saying before we started the show, we can end our discussion. I should on Mike Trout now, but before we started the show, he's having the best season since Babe Ruth? Yeah, according to Fangraph's wins above replacement, he is on pace for 13.3 wins above replacement, which would be the best non-Baybrews season.

According to baseball references wins above replacement, he's on pace for 15 war, which would be the best season by a full win. Wow. I mean, I'm sure some, you know, Mordecai Brown pitcher from 1872, who threw 600 innings probably had more, but, you know, for real baseball players. All right. That was mean.

I'm sorry, Mordecai Brown. I don't know anything about you. Okay. So Mike Trout's awesome. And so are the Dodgers. By the way, obviously Miguel Cabrera is out for the season. Buried the lead there. We'll talk about first base replacements.

We'll talk about John Hicks, who's 26% own and is catcher eligible and will be the everyday first baseman for the Detroit Tigers, the regular first baseman. Rank these Dodgers, Juck Peterson. What the hell is the matter with you? Max Muncie, Yassil Pueig, and Matt Kemp. Four Dodgers, Jack Peterson, Max Muncie, Yassil Pueig, and Matt Kemp. That was your best one yet. I'm so glad he's relevant again, Jack Peterson. I think he has to be last in this group just because he sits against left-handers

and should sit against left-handers. But he's definitely relevant and obviously made the most of the one of the two righties he was scheduled to face this week last night. I actually have Muncie, Pueg, and Kemp in that order all consecutively in my outfield rankings. So I'll go Muncie Pueg, Kemp, and then Jack Peterson. Where are they in your outfield rankings? They are 42nd, 43rd, and 44. That all sounds right to me. I think there's not a huge difference between the lot of them,

and I don't think any of them are must start guys. Muncie, maybe just because he's playing so well right now that you want to take advantage. And the skills that he's showing are very impressive. You know, good command of the strike zone, hitting the ball hard, hitting for power. And he showed some power in the miners. I think he had like a 25 homer season once. So it's not, it doesn't look totally unsustainable. on the other hand I thought Chris Taylor's 2017 wasn't totally unsustainable so

well I Chris Taylor like I know the numbers don't look as good last year but he's been he's still productive enough player I haven't benched him in the Roto league where I have him but he hasn't been the same guy is my point for sure yeah and that's fair I mean Muncie right now is um you know the his home run to fly ball rate is comparable to like what judge Stanton and Gallo did last year, I think those are the only three that had a home run to fly ball rate in the same range that Muncie does now. So he's going to slow down. But at the same time, like, everything, all the numbers we can look at to detect a power

hitter suggest he's a power hitter, and he obviously walks a lot. And there's clearly a lot to like about Muncie, even if it's been a little, it's been over his head so far. Home run in four straight games for Max Muncie, that funky Muncie. Thank you, Team Name Tuesday yesterday. All right, big news. Oh, boy. Miguel Cabrera.

Will Miguel Cabrera ever be good for Fantasy again? I don't think so. That's my guess. If you're a gunned to my head and have to decide today, that's my guess. Yeah, I mean, 36-year-old coming off a season-ending injury now. Probably it. Yeah, he'll be 36 next year. I know this isn't a popular opinion for those.

It won't be a popular opinion for those who stashed him all this time and were still holding out hope. But I'm kind of relieved from my own perspective that this happened because he is, since before this season, he's been a frustrating player to rank and figure out what to expect from him. And now it's just, there's some closure here, I feel like. He's been playing, like, the last good version of Adrian Baltrey we saw. or like not very much power but still good enough to play, but certainly not a standout. Yeah, I mean, I have to disagree as a Miguel Cabrera owner,

and he's out for the season with a ruptured left biceps tendon, just because batting average is so hard to come by, and I don't think he's a good power source, but... To be clear, I'm not happy that Miguel Cabrera got hurt. I just want to put that out there and make sure everyone knows that I am not happy. You don't keep rankings either. whoever else might be. I'm not.

Yeah, I can understand how he'd be difficult to rank, but I was relying on him for batting average, and I basically think I have no chance of winning our Roto League now, because, you know, I suck at batting average. But, okay, so let's talk first base replacements. Then we'll talk about John Hicks. You know, it is a deposition, but a lot of these guys are owned, you know. So there's, I don't know how many good first basemen are available on waivers.

In the shallowest of leagues, you know, Will Myers is 89% owned. I think there's one. Yeah, I know who you're going to say. Ryan Healy? Oh, no. No, I thought you were going to say Justin Boar. No, I mean, Justin Boar, yeah. He's been pretty much his 2017 self since, like, the 10th game at the season when he got off to a really bad start.

But, you know, Ryan Healy, his ownership's down to 54%. There was a point where this guy was pretty much universally owned. and he's been in a deep slump. But I think we're probably going to look up at the end of the season, and he's going to have 30 homers, and he's going to have hit to 65, and he's going to have 90 RBI. And, like, he's never going to be a top 12th first baseman at any point in the season, but you can do worse.

Yeah, you can. Well, let's see who you can get. All right, so we'll start at 80% of it. It's only a 10% difference between him and Justin Boar. I feel like... Yeah, Boar's ownership just hasn't gone up at all. Yeah, that's the clear standout here. I'm sorry.

He is not having a good year. He's having a terrible year, and I know what you just said, Chris, but it's kind of like Ryan Healy. It's one hot streak for Justin Boar, but week by week he's been pretty bad. Yeah, I like, I still like what the batted ball profile shows. I still think he has the potential to be a top power hitter, and he's been an on-base machine.

Like, even with the bad batting, average so far, even with some of the bad luck there. He's been an on-based machine just because pitchers, he's one of the few hitters to be scared of in that lineup. I think ultimately it's going to work out in his favor. He's going to be a top 20 player in a deep position. All right, so that's just some important. Let me read the names.

Start with 80% owned and down. Marvin Gonzalez, C.J. C.J. C.C. C. Mitch Morland. Jesus Aguilar, Max Muncie, Josh Bell. They're all 75 to 80% owned. Aguilar and Moncey stand out there. Yep. I would add both of those guys.

Muncie might be pretty close to Boer in terms of how much I want him. Aguilar would be if I knew for sure he was going to be more or less the everyday first basement with Thamesback. But since I don't know, he's third in that group. So he's third behind who, Muncie? I was including Boer in there. His ownership is a little lower. So Aguilar did not start yesterday. Eric Thames started against a righty, let off.

Eric Thames, by the way, is also 82% owned. So, you know, he won't be an everyday player, probably. Going down to 70% owned and less. Greg Bird, Ian Desmond, Justin Boer, Adam Duval, Matt Adams, Albert Poole. Greg Bird, Desmond, Boer, Duval, Adams, Poolels. See, there's no comparison there between Boer and everybody else. Bird still has

Untapped potential and obviously is in a great lineup I could still see things going very right for him but it kind of start he's off to after having, after missing all that time Yeah, he's unstartable Yeah, yeah

It is I suppose worth noting that Over the last 60 days C. C.J. Cron is the number two First Baseman in Fantasy Um I'd do with that what you will I'm not particularly interested in it, but other people might be. Yeah, I definitely, every time Greg Bird comes up to the plate, I feel like I am at bat,

and I have everything at stake, and I had a lot of profanities yesterday, because he just keeps leaving around it. It's happening. He's getting up with bases loaded, two on, one out, and he is choking every time, and it is really, really angering me. You know, you know what I noticed for him, though? And, like, his hard contact rate is really good. Is it?

You know what I am? He's not hitting any line drives at all. It's, it's like an abysmal line drive rate. But he's elevating the ball and hitting it really hard. Look at him. You got to stop being mad at Greg Bird for being Greg Bird. No, he's not. You don't know who Greg Bird is.

Do you go outside and shout at the sun because it's too bright? You don't know who Greg Bird is. Is that what you do? You've never seen. You know nothing of Greg Bird. Ryan Zimmerman, Trayman and water for wetting you? Ryan Zimmerman, Trammerman, Trenrenren. Ray Mancini, Ryan Healy, Yuli, Guriiel, Matt Davidson, Derek Dietrich.

Any names jump out at you? Zimmerman Mancini, Healy, other than Healy, other than Healy. Guriel, Davidson, Dietrich. How, Davidson's still on the deal, right? Yeah, no, he's back. Okay, um, lately. Depending on what you need, I think Davidson and Guriel are the standouts in that group, uh, Guriel, obviously, just for batting average.

I think the broken thumb, whatever the hand injury that he suffered coming into the season, does appear to have sapped his power, but not his contact ability. So he can be a pretty empty batting average, but there's value in that. And Matt Davidson, I think, you know, will hit home runs. Okay.

And maybe you can buy low on like a Reese Hoskins or I'm sure. Rizzo's been really good since the start of May, but his overall numbers aren't very, very, good. Maybe you could buy low, I don't know. I might have missed your window to buy low on Cody Bellinger. Maybe. Maybe. I mean, Edwin and Carnacione's kind of

cooled off a little after a hot stretch. So maybe you could still buy low on him. Brandon Belt while he's on the D.L. Justin Smoke, maybe. Oh, Brandon Bell, that's a good call. He's having a really good year. Oh, Justin Smoke, no. Worryometer on Justin Smoke. That is coming up. Edwin Carnacion is back. Oh, John Hicks,

26% owned. He is catcher eligible, as I mentioned. He's batting 284, but 16 straight games without an extra base hit. Some of that was with Miguel Cabrera back. Some of that was before Miguel Cabrera came back. How excited are you about adding John Hicks? I was really excited to add him in a 24 team league that I got outbid. I got outbid on him, so that was disappointing.

But, like, catcher is so awful. Yes. Like, so awful. Like, we talk about how awful it is. I think we understate it, even how often we talk about it. Because it's just so bad that, like, even if you don't have a lot of confidence in the hitting profile for Hicks. And, you know, he's a guy with decent pop, but not like a all-star caliber, an all-star upside kind of guy. Just the fact he's going to be a catcher who plays every day is going to set him apart from so much of the sludge at that position that I, it wanted to be.

surprise me at all if he's top 12 the rest of the way. I think he's top 12 this season already. He is in Roto. He's 11th in Roto. Yeah. Okay, so are you looking at the Roto rankings? Yes. Damn it.

I was going to do an impromptu game of Fantasy Feud to guess the top five. So, Scott, I'll just make you look bad. Can you guess the top five catchers in Roto so far? In Roto. Yasmani Grondal's got to be up there. Yeah, he's won. Okay. I would guess Sanchez is still up there, even though he's betting under 200.

He's six. Six. No. No. Okay. How about Buster Posey? He's seven. No, he's eight.

He's eight. Francisco Sorvelli. He's three. J.T. Realmuto. Four. Oh, man. Who's two? Let's see.

He homered last night. It drove in five runs. Evan Gaddis is two? He's two. What? Yep. I mean, I think that just goes to show you how much attendance matters at catcher. Yeah, but he's been really hot lately, but he was like...

His numbers, I mean, his numbers look like Evan Gattis numbers. He's eighth and a bet. Just like two or three weeks ago, just two or three weeks ago, I wasn't sure. Like, I had an offer. I was offered him in that same 24 team league where I desperately need a catcher, and I wasn't confident that he would really be that much of an upgrade for. me because he was off to such a bad start. Oh, he is an upgrade.

Yeah. Gaddis is two. Grandal, Gadis, Cervelli, Rayamuto, and... Salvador Perez. He's seven. Wilson Ramos is the answer. All right. Now we got another catcher.

Tom Murphy, who's doing very well in AAA. He debuted, he made his 2018 debut for the Rockies yesterday. And he went three for four with a double and two RBIs. He was one for 24 last year, Murphy. So it didn't work out. But any interest in Tom Murphy? And would you rather have Murphy or Hicks? It's interesting that he got called up and they started him right away because, is he 27 now?

We've been waiting for his power to get a chance to play out at Coorsfield for long enough that I thought the opportunity had passed him by. But he was killing it again at AAA, OPS over a thousand. And it's not like, you know, the Rockies are contributing to that sludge at catcher with Chris Cyanetta and Tony Wolfe. So it's not like there's not room for him. I'd rather have Hicks, but there's this situation bears monitoring. They just don't seem to like him much, like organizationally. I think that's the problem. I don't think there's any question.

I think he could be a top five catcher if he played every day or played for a catcher every day. Okay. Yeah. Tom Murphy. How about David Fletcher called up by the Angels? Any interest there? I'm not sure where the opportunity is. He's had a good year at AAA, but, you know, it was kind of by surprise.

I think I read... Simmons down. He could maybe get some playing time. I think I read that he could play third base against lefties. Yeah. But it won't be a long-term thing, I don't think. That would not be good for Zach Cozart, by the way. Long-term, anyway.

And I don't know how to pronounce this guy's name. I'm sorry. Jonathan Loisiga will debut for the Yankees on Saturday against the race. Any interesting? I never heard of him. I never heard of him until I saw somebody pick him up in that same 2014 league. 58 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio between AA and AAA this year. And that's like, you know, with 11 strikeouts per nine innings.

I don't know how hard he throws. I haven't had a chance to research him that much. But that alone catches my attention. All right. I mean, it's deep league stuff. They're going to try to skip him as much as possible, I think. He may get one to three starts before Tanaka's back, Jonathan Loai Sega. But keep an eye on just.

to Sheffield who could get called up at some point. Mike Voltenevish left with triceps tightness, but may not miss a start, and he had another really, really good start, Pulte. Acuna is going to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow. Walker Bueller probably out a couple of weeks with a rib micro fracture. Josh Donaldson could be back today.

U. Darvish had a good bullpen session, but still no timetable for a return. And Daniel Murphy is back, guys. 98% owned. Do you expect Daniel Murphy to be Daniel Murphy? I think it's a little strong. Do you hope? I don't expect it.

No, I hope he is, but it sounds like they kind of rushed him back. And, you know, I think they're playing like five games in row in AL parks or something like that. So that's probably why this can kind of serve as his rehab assignment. But I'm definitely concerned. Yeah, he DH yesterday. The reason I don't expect it for Murphy is the reports about him kind of hobbling around. I just don't know how healthy he is. But when he's healthy, he's one of the best.

best hitters in baseball. We'll do a quick look at the bullpen, then we'll get into the Worryometer. Quick reaction. Ken Giles got the save. He hasn't blown a save yet. I don't think he's giving up a run in a save situation. Ken Giles got to save yesterday. Rondone had pitched Saturday and Sunday.

They were off Monday. I don't know if Rondon was available. I assume he was. Quick reaction. Scott. This is the way it's going to go all year. And I feel dumb for starting Hector Rondone. guess what, in that same 24-Team League?

Because I had other options. As someone who refused to do homework until the minute it was due, I really appreciate Ken Giles' unwillingness to perform unless it's a save situation. Joachim Soria got his ninth save. Five saves since June 5-sives. Five saves in a week, basically, for Soria. There was a one-out save. So, yeah, he's the closer.

35% owe him. Sergio Romo got a save. Quick reaction, Chris Towers. Cool. Cool. Modern-day Dennis Eckersley, this Sergio Romo guy. Starting, closing. I'm not that interested in it. Yeah, he's 3% owned. He's not that good. Sir Anthony Dominguez got a save. Scott, it was his first one-inning save. His third save, but his first one inning save, the other two were two-innings saves. Sir Anthony Dominguez, 51% own. I think Gabe Kapler's going to tease us with this all season, but I also think Dominguez is probably going to lead the team in saves. Well, we should note, I believe, Yuri Garcia, Lurie Garcia, is that a name?

Yes. He was pitching the 9th. I think he loaded the bases, and then Sir Anthony Dominguez came in. Ah, okay, that makes sense. Gosh, Dominguez is really good. He is really good. Zach Britton pitched in the sixth. He walked three.

Worked around it, though. It was his first outing. And then a couple of relievers that you want to keep an eye on. Adam Adavino is possibly returning this weekend. He's 3-0 with a .95 ERA. He has given up eight hits, 10 walks, 45 strikeouts in 28 and a third. Adavino's having a special year. And Delon Patanus says this is the best he has ever felt.

In his last 12 appearances, he's given up one run, six walks, He walks 21 strikeouts, only two hits in those 12 appearances. So Delam Patensis is 21% owned. Difference between this Delam Patensis and vintage Delam Patensis, he's just a one-inning guy now. So, you know, still could help you with strikeouts, with ERA, and with WIP. But he cannot help you with dinner. But I can.

Father's Day dinner or lunch. Or you just feel like grilling out. Try Omaha steaks. Oh, baby, I cannot wait to grill it up this weekend. Father's Day is just days away, so now's the time to get on there. What you're going to do is go to Omaha Steaks.com. Omaha Steaks.com, and it's not an offer code. It's not a, you know, something you enter at the end.

It's not a URL, but you type in FBT in the search bar, and you will see the Father's Day package, you know, show up, and you click on it, and you buy it. And it's so inexpensive. You're getting 78% off, 4999 for an unbelievable package. You go to Omaha Steaks.com. and you type in FBT in the search bar. It's going to get delivered right to your door. You're going to get pork, poultry, veal, lamb, bison, seafood, vegetables.

Those are the types of things you can get on Omaha steaks. But here's what you get in the package. And by the way, this is a limited time offer. Okay, this is specifically for Father's Day. So do it right now. Two filets. Two top sirloins. Four chicken fried steaks.

Two boneless pork chops. Four all-beef steak burgers. Four gourmet jumbo francs, 12 ounces of all-beef meat. balls, one pound of fries, four apple tartlets, for caramel apple tartlets, in fact, and one seasoning packet, and you get four more burgers free with the purchase. So you got to do it now. Omaha Steaks.com, type in FBT in the search bar. It is $49.99 for all that great stuff. Omaha Steaks.com, type FBT in the search bar. I've seen some of our listeners taking advantage of this, and I'm very happy about it, and I can't wait to grill it out on Sunday. Here's an email of the day.

It's from Nate and Philly. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. He says, Dear Bob, Phil, Peter, and Raleigh. I don't know. Are we panicking on Ozzy Albies yet? And so that leads us into the Worryometer. Thank you, Phil, for your Worryometer email. Hey, let's put Ozzy Albies on the Wariometer. He is still the number two second baseman in fantasy.

But, yeah, he's not running. He hasn't stolen a base, gosh, since, like, since April or something like that. Yeah, I could look it up, but I'm not going to. It's been a while. Albies did hit a grand slam. He has homered in two straight games now. Worryometer is zero to ten on Ozzy Albies.

I'm going to go like a 3.5. I understand why people would worry. I just feel like the skill set has become so varied with the addition of the power this year. And this actually reminds me a lot of the way Francisco Lendors season unfolded last year where we expect him to do one thing and instead he reveals he has all this power that we weren't expecting and then he kind of disappeared midseason and then he came roaring back at the end like i just like what all these has accomplished at age 21 and you know still a low strikeout rate not a scary line drive rate or any reason to think he's going to be a low

bad bit guy i think in the long run this is going to still turn out very well for his fantasy owners. 3.5 for Ozzy Albiz. How about Javier Baez? He is still a top five second baseman, top seven shortstop. His plate discipline is terrible, and in his last 28 days, no, no, I actually go back a little further since May 8th, so a little bit more than a month. Javier Baez is the number 22 shortstop in points, but number 12 in Rodel because he has eight steals since May 8th. And he is stealing a lot. He's got 11 steals and 12. of attempts this year. But since May 8th, batting 214, we got off to a great start. It hasn't been great lately. Chris, Wuriometer for Javier Baez. His Ops is one one thousandth of a point

removed from last years, which is to say it's essentially identical. So I'm going to say one, but that's because I never thought, I liked Ozzi Albi's coming into the season more than Heath and Scott. Javier Baez. I like, Harvey Baez. Wait, you did? We both. We both. We both. We both had him on our breakup. No, Harvey Baez. Havie Baez. Oh, okay. I liked Javier Baez more than you guys. You guys really didn't think he mattered for fantasy coming into the season. I liked him for Roto leagues. I liked him a lot less than you guys did by the end of April.

I don't think I've really changed my opinion on Javi Baez at all. I think he's going to put up decent numbers, but we know what the limitations in his game are. Yeah. I'm still going to say 30-20 season is coming for Javier bias. I'm not, like, it's a slum. I'm not worried. Okay. I don't know that he should be owned in points leagues, though. He's 99% owned Hobby Baez?

Wait, he's the number seven shortstop in points leagues. Why shouldn't he be owned in points leagues? Do you really believe that he's that good? Yes. Because his great discipline is so bad. He had a month where he was... I think he's going to be a 30-20 guy. All right.

Right. But like, I think he's a better version of Trevor's story, basically. If he goes 30-20 this season, that means he's going 16 and 9 the rest of the way, which is pretty much what we expected from him coming into the season. It's what he did last year. And we weren't through it the season? I'd take 16 to 9 the rest of the way. I think that'll be a must-start short stuff.

You know what he is? He's Rognet Odor, you know? Yeah. And so if he doesn't do that well, he's going to kill you in points leaves. I think he's better. He's like Rugnett-Odor from two years ago, a little faster. Yeah. It's like a better Rougnett-Odor from two years ago,

who himself was a must start option. All right, it's hobby bias. Ender NCRte. Wow, is this guy cold. Wariometer on Ender NCRte. I like that he stole two bases yesterday because that was something that had disappeared with everything else.

He's up to 20 for the season. I didn't. Like, that skill alone, to me, makes him somebody I can't drop in the rhodo rankings. So, and like, I still think with his bad at ball profile, he's going to hit 290. I'll give him a three. Ender and Ciarte. Okay.

And he's two steals away from his career high. And those were his first two since May 15th. So maybe it's just a deep slump for Ender in Ciarte. Wilson Contreras, he's the number five catcher in points. He's number 10 in Roto. He has four home runs this year. Now, you compared, Chris, you compared Hobby Bayez last year to this year. can do the same thing with Wilson Contreras,

at least you look at the slash lines, and the batting average and the on-base are very, very similar. It's just the slugging that's down. So, I mean, he looks like a major positive regression candidate because he's got like a 5% home-run-to-fly ball ratio. I'm very low on the Worryometer on Wilson-Centreras. I'd say a two. Chris Towers, how about you?

I am pretty low on that, but I do want to just... This is not a situation where it looks like just bad luck has caused his poor performance. His bad ball profile has all kinds of messed up. His hard contact rate is a career low, soft contact rate career high, infield fly ball career high,

line drive rate way low. So it's not just bad luck so far. It's a lot of fly balls, though. He's hitting a ton of fly balls and they're not leaving apart. And I just, I believe in the town. Yeah, okay. So we're low on.

Scott, do you agree? Pretty low on the Wariometer and Wilson Contreras? Yeah, pretty low. who else are you going to go with a catcher, you know? Like, he's third just because there's nobody who deserves to overtake. Would you rather have Contreras or Gaddis? I'd rather have Contreras. You could maybe make an argument for Grundal.

I think I'd rather have Gaddis than Grandal. No. See, like, Grundal unfortunately has kind of morphed back into his old, like, top ten self after a hot start. Gattis plays every day, and he's a 30 home. guy, you know? He's, at least that'll be his pace. Gaddis is awesome. I think Gaddis is just fine.

Wuriometer on Justin Smoke. 15 for me. All right. Well, let's hear what. I don't think he's that good. I'm sorry. It's like, he's, you know, he's the kind of guy who's OPS is inflated by his walk rate. So if you play in a points league or you're playing an OPP League, smoke's going to be better.

If you need categories, he's the number 28. first baseman in standard roto five by five without OBP. He's 14th in points. So, look, I think he's slumping. I think he's better than this. And in a points league, I'm probably not dropping him because, like, there are a good first baseman out there. I'm not dropping him for Ryan Healy, you know?

Yeah. I just don't think he's that good. I don't think he's that good if a hitter. I just think he's a good walker. That's basically how I see Justin Smoke. Well, I need orthotic shoes. So I envy people who are good walkers, Adam. Don't dismiss it.

He's another guy who's bad at ball profile is just all messed up. Actually not hitting very many infill fly balls, but also has the lowest line drive rate of his career by a significant margin. Also has the lowest soft contact percentage of his career. So hard to make sense, but he is top 50 out of about 350 players in average exit velocity. So he's still hitting the ball hard. I think better results are coming. I don't think he's as good as he was last.

I think that pretty much sums it up. I guess I just don't think he can really stand out at the position, unfortunately. He can't, but like if you lost Miguel Cabrera and we were looking through those replacements, would you buy low on him? You'd wish Justin Smoke would be one you could pick up. Sure, I would buy low, yeah. Yeah. See, I, uh...

It just depends like we're talking very, very, very low. Yeah. So June 6. I did the column where I looked at players last 365 days to give us a better sense of how legit they were. And at that point, and I understand his batting average has fallen since then, but we're talking, that was just a week ago. Yeah, yeah. Anyway, at that point, smoke's last 365 days, even recognizing he only hit 241 in the second half last year, so that's a big chunk of this. His last 30065 days were a 261 batting average 34 homers, 35 doubles, and an 869 OPS.

I know. I'm having trouble reconciling that because Smoke was really good in July. And in August, he had a 78 OPS. In September, he had a 644 OPS. The other thing is since August, the strikeout rate has gone way up. And he's striking out a lot more this year than he did last year. And the last thing I'll say, I guess this is why I don't really trust Justin Smoke. He's basically had four good months

His entire career He's just he's been a bad hitter for all but the first four months of last year That's my concern Fair All right, I want to get to the listener worryometer You should not be worried though about the draft app Draft app is freaking awesome And all right, it's time to play

How did Adam do on the draft app last night I don't think it was good Because I had Miles Michaelis Yeah you know what I'm tired of saying how I finished Michaelis Jady Martinez Scooter Jeanette, Andrew Ben and Tendee, Michael Brantley. It was not a good day for me on the draft app.

But I'm going to be back at it again. And you can win Adam Azers money by signing up on draft or on draft.com. And using the promo code, FB Today. FB today is the promo code. That will automatically get you following me so you can join the drafts that I post every day. And it will also get you a free entry into a real money baseball draft. Why should you play draft other than just beating me? Well, the drafts are really quick.

You know, it's not like a long thing. You're drafting five positions, put 30 seconds on the clock. They go really quickly. You can play against one person. You can play in drafts of 10 people. You can play baseball, football, basketball, golf, hockey. You can play a lot of stuff on the draft app. You get cold hard cash.

You get paid out the next day, and they start at just $1, and you love fantasy baseball, and you love snake drafts. So join draft right now. Get the draft app or go to draft.com and use the promo code FB today. All right, here's who the listeners are worried about. Give me your worryometer. for the following players. Gary Sanchez.

Zero. Zero. Luis Castillo. Three. I mean, do we have to recalibrate this for him? Because I feel like our expectations deserve to be lower at this point. Right, yeah, yeah.

Like, he was being drafted as a top 20 starting pitcher. So he's eight for that. But I still think there's a chance. Oh, yeah, there's definitely a chance. I mean, he has the fourth best swinging strike grade in baseball, according to baseball reference, their measurement of it, behind, I think, Scherzer Sailing de Grom. And then there's Castillo. So, like, the talent is still off the charts. Quick aside.

I want to drop him. I want to drop him. Quick aside, if you were measuring swinging strikes, I don't understand why any website would have trouble doing that. Like, why they would be different. But if you were measuring swinging strikes, the only thing I can think of is this, how would you measure a foul tip? into the mitt. I don't think that's a swinging strike. Well, foul tip into the mitt is a swinging strike, I guess.

Because you can get a strike out from that. Yeah. I guess that kind of is the guide there, right? I don't know. I don't know if that's the discrepancy that these websites have. Well, no, no, no. The discrepancy that I'm referring to fan graphs measures a percentage of total pitches. How many swinging strikes out of the total number of pitches,

and baseball reference does swinging strikes out of the total number of strikes. Oh, you're just talking about rate. I'm talking about, like, I go on ESPN, I look at baseball reference. I look at the same game in the game logs, and one might have like 15, one might have 60. And I'm wondering if foul tips are the reason. To be clear, Luis Castillo is fifth in Fangraph's Swinging Strike rate, which is swinging strikes divided by total pitches.

He's third from the bottom in contact rate, which is, contact divided by total swings. So whatever way you want to measure, Luis Castillo is one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to hit against when it comes to that. Now, when guys may contact, good things have happened. That's true. All right. Carlos Martinez, Worryometer.

I will give him a one. Yeah, like two, but only because of injury. Yeah, that's the thing. I got a bit of ease. I'm thinking about him intentionally throwing softer. Right. That elevates it. That probably elevates it to four for me.

Like, I'm not convinced he's not going to wind up back on the deal. Carlos Martinez. How about Luke Weaver? I'm kind of worried. I'm kind of worried that he's just going to be like, okay. Yeah. It's kind of in the same class of Luis Castillo, where I think we're, we've shifted our expectations already.

Yeah. But given the new expectations, I'll give him like a five. Ryan Trammell says, brain doger. I think he meant Brian Dozier. Wariometer on Brain Dozier. One. It's like a one. Yeah, I mean, how many years are we going to do this to ourselves? Yeah, yeah, big time by-low.

I don't think I included him on that list yesterday of players who can carry your team, but Brian Dozier can carry your team. Also, if you've ever seen the movie Brain Donors, which Brain Dozier reminded me of, Brain Donors is one of my favorites. It's one of Dave Richards' favorites. If you've seen it, that means you and I would be friends. Evan says, Miguel Sineau Oriometer. Heat?

Uh-huh. Yep. Yeah. Like, unless it's a roto league with the bigger lineups, I don't even know why you'd still own them, to be honest. Like, still a ton of upside, but that's why. That only carries it so far. I know, I know. I mean, this is what we were worried about coming into the season.

Yeah, I'm just, what did I say? He hit like 23 home runs before the All-Star break last year or something. I can't get that out of my mind with Miguel Sino. And Noah Cindergarde, Wariometer for Cindergarde. Like, two? Yeah, what did I say? Whatever I said for Carlos Martinez, it's probably the same thing here.

Yeah, please get off the DL. Like, to your Sino point, I think the way things are playing out, for Jock Peterson. I mean, the fact that he's not an everyday player kind of changes the equation a little bit. But like, we all knew Jock Peterson had upside. We'd kind of gotten discouraged.

He would meet it anytime soon, kind of like the place we're at with Miguel Snow. But like once he started meeting it, you still had a chance to pick him up. Like, it's not like you're giving up on a guy forever if you drop him. I understand, but you are giving up your exclusive rights. He becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Sure, but, you know, those are the tough decisions you have to make when you're dealing with limited roster space. Are you ready for 12 emails in six minutes? Yes. You're on the clock. Dear Peeps, Bean Boozels, and Crackland Oatbrand, this is J.T. from New York. Head to Head Points League. I need a Cabrera replacement. Bell, Aguilar, Morland, Adams, Mancini, Muncie, Gurriel, or Hicks.

Bell, Aguilar, Morland, Adams, Mancini, Muncie, Gurriel, or Hicks. I heard of Muncie. We'll stick with Muncie. Go with Muncie. From Jesse, best catcher to own rest of season, 12-team categories league. Zunino, Hicks, Murphy. Hicks. Yeah. Ooh, over Zanino.

Yeah. I mean, I've never been a big Zanino guy, but I think this year has validated that. He's still like a good guy in categories. I think he's like 18th or something. And he missed a few weeks. at the beginning of the season. Yeah, he is what he is. He's going to hurt your batting average.

He's going to give you a lot of home runs. Yeah. All right, so Hicks over Zanino. Josh says, Willie Adomis or Addison Russell rest of season in Roto. I'm fine with taking a chance on Adamus. Yep. I mean, anybody over Addison Russell. Like, come on.

Can I drop Gregory Polanco for Willie Adamas or Jake Bowers? I'm fine with him. that. Yeah, there's, like, it's a 12-te-team categories league, head-to-head categories league, which means not a ton of players are owned. I'm surprised you can't do better, to be honest, but I'd be fine with that. I'm not married to Polanco at this point. Okay, so that's dropping Polanco. I'm going to assume right, we want Adamas over Bowers. From Chase, grade the trade, give up Lance McCullors, get Mitch Hanigur and Alex Wood in a categories League. Give up McCullors, get

Hanager and Wood. Yeah. I'd rather have Hanigar's falling off a lot, but I'd still rather have the high-end hitter over the borderline high-end pitcher who's had issues with his best pitch this year. And Alex Wood is just a bonus. So I'll give it an

A-minus. I think it's like a B-minus. If Lance McCullors has had issues with his best pitch, and he's still having a pretty good year. He has a sub 1-2 whip. He's got a ton of... Now he's at like a strikeout per inning. Isn't that actually a good sign?

Like, if he gets that curveball going, you know... Yeah, and I just... I'm not sure Mitch Hanninger's a high-end hitter. Like, it's... It comes down to it's my 24th outfielder versus my 25th starting pitcher. And then you get my 50s... starting pitcher along with it.

I just think the math clearly works out in the Hanager side's favor. Okay. Email from Anthony. Head-to-head, Yahoo! Fantasy League. Boo. No, just kidding. I have four closers. Herrera, Parker, Malanson, and Nate Jones. Should I keep all four, or who should I drop?

You don't have. You have two closers. Malanson, maybe Nate Jones is just not the closer right now. So drop him. Right. And no, I don't think foreclosers, if you had foreclosers, there's too many in my Yahoo head-to-head categories. I have four or five closers. Because if it's daily, then it makes sense to have more closers.

Josh in Toronto. Hey, Tinkers Evers & Chance. How worried should I be about Cole Hamels, Rick Porcelo, and Alex Wood? Moderately? They were all pretty cheap. Alex Wood was a top 100-ish pick. So that, but like Hamels has, I think, the third highest difference between his ERA and FIP. And so that's definitely concerning.

But the only one I feel like who's pitched in a way that would raise concerns recently is Alex Wood, right? Right. I mean, others have been doing what they've been doing. How would you rank them? Wood Poresello Hamels? That's how you rank them? Is that what you asked? Yeah, how would you rank them?

I'd go Porcelo Hamels Wood. So there. Wow, you really dropped Alex Wood, Scott. I thought you were an Alex Wood guy. Yeah, you're the Alex Wood guy. Yeah, he's been. been disappointing. I don't know. What do you want me to say? All right. From Ryan. Godly or Luis Castillo?

Castillo. Yeah. From Landon. I just randomly sent a guy a trade for Robbie Ray while I was taking a number two. I sent him Rick Porcelo. Was that a euphemism for what he put? Yeah. He took something else. I sent him Rick Porcelo for his Robbie Ray and he quickly accepted. That's a win, right? Yeah.

Okay. Also, Landon, please remind me never to use your cell phone. From Bill, grade, give Bellinger and Flaherty. Why are you judging this guy? What? It's disgusting. You've never used your phone on the toilet? I'm not on trial here.

Give up Bellinger and Flaherty and get Verlander in a Keeper League. Bellinger and Flaherty for Verlander in a Keeper League. Oh, it would totally depend how many players. you keep. Like, Keeper League doesn't tell me enough. Like, if everybody keeps five players, then who cares about saving youth? Like, there's so much turnover from you, that it doesn't matter. If you're keeping, like, 15 or more players, that's a lot of upside to give up. And I probably wouldn't do it.

So it would just totally depend. All right. Bob Hop, the third, says, watch Disney's Frog Princess for some good music. And Nick Feely says, Be Prepared is the best Disney song. not close you know what a friend of mine and I senior year of high school we sang an a cappella like not that we really know how to sing acapella but we sang an acapella version of be prepared for a school talent show and we won the talent show really yeah so i agree would you be willing to if i got your friend on Skype would you be willing to do it with him on the show

I don't think I've spoken to that, friend, since... Oh, that would make it so much better. I don't know pre-prepared. What's it from? It's the Lion King, like, the one where, like, the hyenas are goose-stepping. Okay, yeah, I just saw the Lion King for the first time a couple months ago, so... Yeah. It was obviously this goofy thing we did.

We were not expecting to go over that well. You know, if you were looking to do a goofy thing, you should have done some of the music from the goofy thing. movie. Should have. There you go. Let's talk about the double dongs from yesterday.

Didi Gugorius, Mitch Hanigur, and Ryan Healy. Didi Giorius is Trevor's story in the A at least. He's been terrible on the road, although last year he was actually better on the road than at home, a lot better on the road,

than at home. So, D.D., yeah, I don't know if we can declare him back, but it's a good sign. Hanager, yeah, we've talked a lot about him, and actually we talked a lot about Ryan Healy. So maybe it's just talking about Didi Gorgorius. He's the number six shortstop in fantasy right now. Great April, Terrible May,

turning it on a little bit in June. Yeah. Yeah, it sounds like the number six shortstop to me. Yeah. I mean, I understand it's been a roller coaster ride, but I still think, like, his Babbup is super low right now. Yeah, he's, he's still good. Okay. Would you rather have Dedy Gagorius or Alex Pregman? Bregman. Brickman. D.D. or Trevor Story? Didi. Yep. Okay.

Story is one spot ahead of Dedi in points leagues, which surprised me since story has 77 strikeouts. All right, quick news items. Mookie Betts sat. Should be back today. Joe Mauer could be back this weekend. Bryce Harper expected to play today. He got hit by a pitch twice last night. Francisco Sorvelli sat again with a head injury.

Eric Thames led off to played first against the righty and Hesu Zagalar sat and Austin Meadows sat yesterday for the Pirates. Brian Anderson, guys, last 28 days. He's the number seven third baseman in points, number six in Roto. Brian Anderson, like obviously he has a high babb. He's batting 372. He has a three in the last 28 days. But he's batting 311 on the year with a 386 batting average.

But he's hitting the ball hard and he doesn't hit fly balls. So is Brian Anderson going to be a reliable batting average source rest of season? No. I think that's what he's best at. And he's pretty good on base guy. But he's not so good. good at it like he needs that to be what carries him and it's not quite enough i think he'll be more like a 280 guy yeah yeah without a lot of power so really it's not a not a guy to get excited about right

right right i babbib low iso is a bad combination i'm going to go quickly here would you be willing to drop john gray no and in fact i just wrote a column about that um good pitchers who are outside the circle of trust he's among them i just think the talent is too high even though you can't use them right now. How about dropping Daniel Magnin, 86% owned? Yes. Yeah. I'd be okay with that.

I'm not saying he's a must-drop, but I'd be okay with it. How about dropping Jake Oteresey, Chase Anderson, C.C. Sabathia, or Clay Buckelts. They're all owned in more than 70% of leagues. Anderson shocked me yesterday. Seven scoreless innings one hit against the Cubs. Let me give the names again. Odarezi, Anderson, Sabathia, and Buckholz. We needed to talk about Chase Anderson

earlier in the podcast Because his velocity was up Like I'm pretty sure To the levels That it was last year I want to say it was like Two to three miles per hour up From his last three starts

That's all I checked last night But I'm going to go to Brooks baseball right now And look But that's a big thing It is So hold on to it Yeah

this was the hardest he's thrown all season. He averaged 94.3 miles per hour with his four seam fastball, and that's where he was last year. So, yeah, I think he was down to 92 the start before. So look, it's no guarantee that he'll be good moving forward, but a big part of his success last year was the fact that his fastball velocity was way up. And yeah, I think that's a big deal. And Anderson, now look, I do remember earlier in the year, now I'm looking at Brooks baseball myself.

He had two games where he was throwing pretty hard. A game against Miami, throwing 94. Next game at the Cubs, 93. And it's just been, well, I guess the 90. He wasn't able to sustain it when he hit 94, average 94 on April 19th against Miami. So it's not like a total buy-in, but as a guy, look, I admit, I've been saying drop-chase Anderson, drop-chaise Anderson, didn't make any sense to hang on to him. This is interesting and encouraging, so maybe hang on to him.

And I think in that second start against the Cubs, he, like, slid awkwardly at home plate and, like, hit his face against the clay. And I remember his velocity was down immediately after that. Okay. That's pretty interesting. So something to look at for Chase Anderson. All right. The rest of the fringesisting, starting pitchers, who would you want to own? So Odarezi, Sabathia.

Zach Wheeler was pitching well until the sixth inning. He only gave up one run in five, and then he ran into trouble in the sixth. Trevor Williams has been bad lately Jaime Berea You know we haven't really talked about him But Otani's out so Berea Maybe pitching more regularly Buckholtz Mike Leak

Who's been on fire lately He's got a 263 ERA in his last seven starts Scott anyone that you really want to add Nobody who Greatly excites me I think Oteresee is the one I ranked the highest At this group but Wheeler Sabathia Berea they're all

I guess even Leak They're all in that you know, streamer category, I think, at a standard mixed league. Buck Colts, get him out of here. Who did you say was the standout in the group? Well, Otero Rezi is the one I rank the highest.

I don't know that he's a standout. I think Sabathia, Wheeler, Correa, and Leak are all basically in the same class of pitchers. They do different things, well, but it's the same class. And where do you put Chase Anderson compared to Oterreasy? I mean, I dropped him.

behind Odarezi before yesterday's start, but now I think I'm going to move him back ahead. Right. Well, let's take a look at today's matchups, and we'll finish the show. Mets at Braves, DeGrom, yes. How about Soroka coming off the DL? I'm excited. He should be owned. Start him or sit him?

No, I'd sit. Sorry. Forgot what exercise we were doing here. Soroka is 58% owned. I think I'm going to start him today. The Mets are the worst. I don't know what the pitch count will be. Yeah, that'd be my concern.

I tend to avoid guys coming off the DL. Especially 20-year-olds. Jayhap at Wilmer Font. Star Hapset. Don't bother with font. Yeah, San Serif. Mike Montgomery at Yolice's Seed. I, like, they're both in the range where I could think about starting him,

but I don't like the match of free. That's it. Chris Sale, yes, and Jeffrey Ramirez for the Orioles. No free Ramirez. James and Tyone and Zach Granky. Yes. Yeah, both. Garrett Richards at Marco Gonzalez.

Yes. To both, yep. Tyler Anderson at Nick Povetta. Yes, to Povetta. And that's it, yep. Eric Fetty at Sunny Gray. No. Yeah, I'm going to say no to both, even though Gray's gotten better results recently.

What if Bryce Harper's out? Maybe. You want to be crazy to start Gray. It would depend on the alternatives to some degree. I wouldn't be looking to start. Jose Burrios at Matt Boyd. Jose Burrios? Yeah, Boyd, no Boyd.

I'm hedging on Boyd. Let's do it. Let's start Boyd. All right. Andrew Suarez, homecoming game at Caleb Smith in Miami. Start Caleb Smith. Yeah. But not Suarez. Trevor Bauer, a Dylan Covy.

Bauer, no, Kobe. Bauer, by the way, is the second best Cleveland Indian starter. Fire Cell. I like Carasco more. But, I mean, it's... Your Carasco thing... Your Carasco thing... Go ahead.

It reminds me a little bit of... the Jacob de Grom doesn't have electric stuff. No, no, no, because I rescinded that two seconds after. Also, the announcers in that same game said DeGrom didn't have his best stuff that game. So I rescinded that. My Carasco thing is not part of this argument. It's a Bauer thing. Trevor Bauer is awesome.

He is good. Definitely good now. Yeah. I was offered Enverna Cardassio for Carlos Carrasco yesterday, by the way. I'm going to try to get a little bit more for sure. Tyler Malley at Jason Hamill. No. Yeah, no to both.

I would much rather have Caraska than in Carnaccio, by the way. Yeah, me too. Eric Lauer at Luke Weaver. Yeah, you're starting Weaver. Start Weaver. And Garrett Cole at Paul Blackburn. Not starting Paul Blackburn. And Blackburn, no.

Blackburn singing, sitting on the end of my bench. Cole Hamels at Kent and Maida. I'm not going to start Mayeda in his first start back. Yeah. Hamels, you know, Jack Peterson will be out of the lineup. I think it's okay. By the way, Paul Blackburn, another pitcher I would want to become a closer so we could sing Blackburn pitching in the dead of the nine.

Yeah, okay, that's better. That works. So that'll end our little musical adventure for today. Thank you all for listening for Scott White and Chris Towers. I'm Adam Mazur. We'll talk to you on Thursday with the Fantasy Regulators.