Fantasy Baseball Today - 06/18: Great Pitching Performances! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 18, 2019

Monday night was all about pitching from Masahiro Tanaka to Jose Berrios to Lance Lynn to Tommy Milone and more. We start with the standouts including a disappointing Mike Clevinger (2:00), an improving Cavan Biggio (4:10), another intriguing MIA SP (7:05) and the mysterious Lynn (9:45) and how he's been so good this season ...  News and notes (12:50) and sneaky storylines (18:00). We tell you what you may not realize about players like Gary Sanchez, Alex Bregman (22:00), Mike Trout and Mookie Betts (24:24), and Trevor Story ... Getting into the pitching performances with our thoughts on (32:00) Tanaka, Berrios, Luis Castillo and Mike Soroka. Then we tackle (41:00) Rick Porcello, Yonny Chirinos, Joey Lucchesi and Miles Mikolas. Then it's on to some waiver wire guys who pitched well (43:10) and finally to the guys who pitched poorly last night (45:50) like Zack Wheeler, Kenta Maeda and Wade Miley. Oh, and don't forget about Team Name Tuesday (53:00)! ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome to your Tuesday edition of fantasy baseball today. It is June 18th.

I'm Adam Azer. I got Scott White and Chris Towers here, and I'm going to start the show with a little bit of an experiment. I'm going to ask Scott and Chris, for, I don't know, one word, one sentence to sum up last night's action. And I think we're all going to say the same thing. Chris, why don't you go first? Sum up last night's action. I really did not want to go first for this exercise.

So I'm just going to not do it. Okay, Scott, how about you? One word? I don't know. We're going to have the same answer. We did not talk about this before the show. So obvious. The storyline of last night was so obvious. obvious. It was just great pitching. Great pitching.

Almost all around. Right? I was thinking what started out is great and then became unraveled in the middle innings in the case of like Mike Clevenger and Wade Miley. Oh, two guys. Okay, sure. Great pitching. There are a lot of walks.

Great pitching. You can never please Scott White. No, it's true. Yeah. Nothing's ever good enough. Chris Archer's good enough. I mean, he acted like it was obvious. I think it was pretty obvious.

I mean, there really wasn't a lot of hitting. I mean, if there was one, like, standout hitting performance yesterday, it was probably Bigio. We'll talk about... Dishia. Well, the Braves. Well, the Braves. They're hitting everyone.

So Jorge Salere we got to talk about. Oscar Mercado, Homer again. That was nice. So welcome to the show. Here we go. Monday standouts. I think we should start with Mike Clevenger. He went four and two thirds.

He gave up three hits, five runs. I think he gave up three and then two more scored after a reliever came in. So they were charged to Clevenger. Three walks, seven strikeouts, only eight swinging strikes. Texas, by the way, leads baseball in strikeouts per game. So you would have thought a little bit more swinging strikes, but whatever. He did get seven strikeouts in four and two thirds. Look, his first two starts for all of you who don't remember, seven innings of no runs,

12 strikeouts against the White Sox, and then five innings, no runs, ten strikeouts against Toronto, and he missed what, two months? So wasn't it combined two hits three hits to something like he was he was looking like he was taking another step forward after the breakout season with higher velocity than ever and he didn't hit 98 in this start yeah he averaged 96.5 with his fastball last night which was even higher than what he was doing the first couple of starts so yeah he got really like for a guy who missed like two months I feel like he didn't have that much of a rehab assignment so it was. probably just kind of running. He looked good at the start and then I think kind of ran out of gas. Probably just need some time to build back up. Sure. So I think we're mostly encouraged by the velocity, by the strikeouts and by what we saw the first two starts. It is worth pointing out that he now has seven walks and 16 and two thirds. And if there's one thing that might hold Clevenger back, it is that. But last year,

he was 15th in points, 17th in Roto with probably bad win-loss luck, 13 wins with a 302 ERA. 207 strikeouts and 20080s. So I think don't panic at all on Clevenger based on yesterday. No, I mean, you always, we always talk about when a guy's first coming off the DIL, especially after a lengthier stay like this, you might want to give them a shot. Now, this was a two-star week for Clevenger, so you wanted to start him anyway. But it's not totally surprising that his first time seeing major league hitters in two months, he wasn't incredibly sharp, but it could have gone a lot worse.

He was still, he looks very good stuff. All right, Scott. Give me a standout from yesterday. Stand out from yesterday. I want to go straight to the bige. Craig, not Craig. Kevin, Vigio,

Kevin in the woods. Two-Homer game. His second two-homer game, by the way, in five games. Yep. Yeah. No,

he's really picking it up at the play. And, like, one thing he was doing from the start, from the initial call-up, was walking a lot. Which is why, I was encouraged and really still motivated to own him, even despite this low start.

But it looks like he's starting to come around now, and second base is still a position where a lot of people have a need. So if somebody gave up on him early, you might want to make another play at Kevin Bishio. Yeah, I picked up Bishio in two leagues last night. Now, I dropped Bigio six games ago. In his last five games, he is eight for 19 with four. four home runs and two doubles. And the first two homer game was at Baltimore. You know how I feel about guys who homer off Baltimore.

So I wasn't beating myself up over dropping him. But now I'm beating myself up a little bit because the last four games have been at Houston and then one game against the Angels. So he's faced better pitching, obviously. So not that he faced like studs last night. But yeah, I mean, 44% on Chris, you and I talked about Bizio last week and you said that his patience might actually be his downfall, basically. at least that's what some of the scouting were that said.

Yeah, that was one of the concerns that scouts had. He's always walked a ton in the miners, but one of the concerns was it was as much about being passive. And so far, no player in baseball has been less aggressive than Kevin Bidgio, and it worked out great on pitches outside of the strike zone. He swings at them only 12% of the time, which is definitely what you want. The problem is he only swings at 66% in the strike zone, which it's not a terribly low rate.

it would be like the 35th lowest in baseball if he had played the full season and qualified. So it's not nearly as bad as it probably could be. And it does seem like he does a good job of identifying which pitches he can't handle and laying off. So I think there's encouraging signs for sure. He definitely needs to be owned across the board. I just, he's going to get himself into a lot of two strike counts. And I think you could see, you know, batting average issues for him as a row. result of that, but the power is really impressive. He should start stealing more bases moving forward.

So I think there's a lot to like about him. I think he's must own. I thought I picked him up in a league. Yeah, I did. Kevin Bishio. He's now outfield eligible and second base eligible, and it appears that he is one appearance away from being first base eligible as well. So, okay, that's Bigio. Chris, you have a standout from Monday you'd like to talk about? I assume we'll get to Lance Lynn at some point, so I'll put that off. Let's talk about Eliezer Hernandez. Elizer Hernandez. I'm not exactly sure how you pronounce this guy's name, but he's a pitcher for the Marlins. And another one who has looked decent through his first two starts. What a homer. I mean, yeah, no, go ahead.

Six shutout innings or one run running, one run, one run inings against the Cardinals, was it? Six strikeouts, one walk. He was really good last night. 12 swinging strikes on 101 pitches, that's okay. but the slider had seven on 31. I don't know how long he's going to stay in the rotation, but he deserves a look based on what he's done in his first couple of starts. And not just that. At AAA, you know, obviously he got overshadowed by Zach Gallen,

but at AAA 9 starts 113-102 whip 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. I'm actually disappointed in having another good start because the door is wide open for Zach Gallen now. with a Raina on the 60-day IL. You know, I feel like the fact Jordan Yamamoto had a good first start, earned him the second one. But now, even if Yamamoto comes back down to Earth of the second start, well, Hernandez's roadblock because Caleb Smith's about to come back. There's about to be only one opening. Still think it's going to be sooner than later for Zach Allen.

They have, you know, a 40-man roster spot cleared with the guy going on the 60-day IL. and a young rotation, not everybody's been that successful in that rotation so far. But this is another possible roadblock for Gallen now. Eliasor Hernandez. Caleb Smith is going to bump up against an inning's limit at some point. There's going to be an opportunity for Zach Allen. But yeah, right now it probably looks like they need at least one more spot to open up. Maybe two if they were willing to call up Yamamoto and Hernandez.

ahead of Gowan before this. And there wasn't a 40-man roster spot available before this, but it's also the Marlins. So opening a 40-man roster spot if they wanted to get Zach Allen up would not have been too difficult to do. So that's my concern. I think we definitely see him at some point after the All-Star break. I would just, because Hernandez has looked good and because he's been so good at AAA, because Yamamoto looked good in his first start and isn't a nothing prospect, I think we'll see those guys get the next couple of chances, even when Caleb Smith comes back. Can we please stop talking about the Marlins? I mean, at least we're talking about a guy who has the word Azor in his first name.

So that's good. But we have to talk about the Yankees, or at least the former Yankee, Lance Lynn. Because if you look at Lance Lynn, yeah, this is an awkward transition. That was the most self-globifying sequence of sentences I've ever heard in my life. Adam, compared to the way the intro of the podcast went, I thought that was A-plus. You guys screwed up the intro. It was so obvious that you needed to talk about pitching. Now, let's lid, man. I mean, okay, so his last eight starts is a 292 ERA.

He has 66 strikeouts to eight walks in 52 and a third. 12% swinging strikes. He basically only throws fastballs. It's really weird. Now, he's got good velocity. But I don't know what to make of it except this. He's basically doing what he did with the Yankees last year, except the ERA is so much better.

Well, okay, that's actually not 100% true. All right, all right, let's take a step back. Last year with the Yankees, 54 and a third innings, 414 ERA, and very similar walk-to-strikeout rates is this year. This year, 93 innings, 416 ERA, so nearly identical. However, like I said, it's been much better after a rocky start. But the walk rate, the strikeout rate, the hit rate, pretty similar to what we saw with the Yankees last year. The overall ERA, 416 this year, 414 last year with the Yankees.

I don't know. You tell me what to do with Lanslin because he shouldn't be good. He shouldn't be good, but he has been really good. I'm not telling you anything, Chris. Tell B. Yeah, he's throwing his foreseamer a lot more and his sinker a lot less than he had in years past. and that does seem to have made a bit of a difference. It is a much better swing and miss pitch,

but it's basically fastball cutter. That's basically all he's throwing, and then he'll mix in a curveball on a change up occasionally. Does anyone buy it? Does anyone really believe that Lance Lynn is someone were going to be starting? That's kind of always, like with going back to his Cardinals days, he was a guy who pretty much lived with three fastballs, right?

That's basically what he threw. And it worked well for him then. You could try shopping them because I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of the performance. Try shopping it. But like you're not going to because he's Lance Lamb, because of season long ERAs over four, you're probably not going to get a pitcher back in such a deal that is capable of putting together the kinds of starts he has. Eight in a row now. Quality starts.

Six of them with eight strikeouts or more. Like I'm just inclined to write it out as long as it lasts because that's that. Whatever pitching spot he's filling for you now is one that's going to be difficult to fill with, I think, certainly anything off the waiver wire. And I think in the trade market, too, just because of this history. You know who you might be able to get? Armand Marquess. That'd be one that I would target for him. All right.

All right, those are some standouts. More pitchers coming up later because obviously, as everybody knows, the storyline from yesterday, great pitching performances. Noah's Cindergards on the IL. He could miss just one start. San Diego's calling up Logan Allen to face Milwaukee today starting pitcher Logan Allen does he matter He was kind of exciting coming into the season But I think he has an ERA over 5 at AAA this year

Which yeah triple A it's it's tough because they're in the PCL Yeah PCL PCL and AAA baseball plus PCL That's a really tough environment But he still has a career like 3 ERA right I'm not sure exactly but it's probably good Yeah, I just, I don't think he's the kind of call-up I'm rushing out to add, but, you know, if he has a good first turn, then,

uh, yeah, I guess he's worth monitoring in, in like a Jordan Yamamoto sort of way. If I could bring up a Marlins pitcher again. Please, yeah. Always have to. John Carlos Stanton will be back today. Jose Altova actually could be back today as well. J.T. Rayamuto sat with a groin injury. Mani Machado is appealing a one-game suspension. Edwin and Carnaccioam batted fifth for the Yankees.

Giovanni Urchella sat. Byron Buxton sat with a wrist issue. Jay Bruce sat with a hamstring injury. Hunter Pence is on the IL with a groin injury. And Willie Calhoun is back guys. Willie Calhoun batted fifth against Cleveland. He is in seven games this year, batting 3.85 with two home runs, two walks, three strikeouts.

And Calhoun is 46% owned. So since they're both outfield eligible, if you saw Kevin Biggio and Willie Calhoun on your waiver wire, who would you prioritize? Bishio. I mean, Calhoun, it's a seven-game sample of success and the first success he's seen in the majors after a couple of failed stints. But, yeah, I mean, if you need another outfield, I'd absolutely pick up Calhoun. The fact that Pence is down, there's an opening for him. And has got kind of a rebound season at AAA, a power hitter who doesn't strike out much. It could. It could be, it could be, it could be for. finally him coming into his own.

It's just, you know, compared to Bigio, I'd rather go Bigio. Very excited about big, beefy baseball boy, Willie Calhoun. I think in five outfielder leagues he definitely should be on. Rank v. outfielders. Willie Calhoun, Oscar Mercado, Ramon, Luriano. Calhoun, Mercado, Luriano. I think I would go Mercado Calhoun, Luriano. No more Mazar is going to avoid the IL, might be able to DH today.

Dallas Kiko expected to start against the Nationals. on Friday. Teoscar Hernandez led with a wrist injury. The Marlins were shut out for the 13th time this season. Yikes. Hunter Dozier started a rehab assignment. If you looked at the box score and you saw, oh, Jose Ramirez doubled. Yeah. It was a very

cheap double. Don't get too excited. And Philadelphia, Washington, the game was rained out. They will play a doubleheader tomorrow. Quick bullpen notes here. Ian Kennedy got his fifth save in 11 days. Eighth for the season. Jose LeClerc is just not doing anything to help his case.

Chris Woodward wants to get him back in the role, but Leclerc gave up another run, a home run yesterday. But he hasn't walked anybody in nine straight appearances, but right now it's Sean Kelly's job. Meanwhile, Anthony Bass struggled again, so right now I guess probably Rowanus Aaliyas, the favorite to get saves there in Seattle. And what did we make of Ryan Brazier coming in

in a 2-0 game at Minnesota and throwing a scoreless ninth for his seventh save, Scott Ryan Brazier, Brazier Crane. Yeah, 7th save first since April 21st. And that looks like as messy of a committee now is maybe even messier than the raise, honestly, because I think there's more than three arms they could go to in the ninth inning. Okay, fair enough. So listen, coming up on the show, I got some sneaky storylines, some impact from the

Edwin and Carnaccioni trade that we have not talked about. Some pretty interesting stats on Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. And why, uh-oh. Am I clickbait kind of thing? They might not be as good as you think they are. Plus Alex Bramman, no. Yeah, exactly. And everything you need to know about yesterday's starting pitchers,

your emails, team name Tuesday Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, and we'll be right back. Thank you very much to ZipRecruiter for sponsoring today's show. All right, let's get some sneaky storylines. Here we go. Gary Sanchez. Scott, is he your number one catcher in your rankings? Yes, number one.

Well, I got some bad news for you. He has made eight starts as a designated hitter this year. And in those eight starts, he's batting 333 and slugging 909. Six home runs and 33 at bats. I don't know. He's going to make even six more starts as a DH. Wait, eight starts, eight starts. Rest of season, you know, because of incarnation.

I hear you. Okay. I'm just not sure the offensive skills for any other catcher, especially since it seems like Real Muto's taking a bit of a step back this year. I'm not sure there's any comparison. I mean, the home run pace Sanchez is on. You look at like, at least last I checked, like ex-Woba. He's actually underperformed that.

So he's really good. I am not saying. And Ril Muto, it is worth noting. He's underperforming his ex-Wobah as well. He's actually low, I think it's the best of his career. So that's worth noting that there could be much better days ahead for J.T. Romo. I still would take Sanchez number one. I am not saying Sanchez should not be the number one catcher.

I'm just letting fantasy owners know he might not play quite as much as he did before the trade. Speaking of which. I mean, they could give Incarnacion days off, you know. Yeah, they will. They can give Luke Void an occasional day off. I know, but when they do that, yeah, I just don't know that Sanchez is going to DH. I mean, it makes sense like that Stanton would DH. and Gardner would play left field.

You know what I mean? But we'll see. We'll see. Speaking of catchers not playing as much, we've been very happy with Omar Narvaez. Sneaky storyline, though. Omar Navias has started nine games in June, and Tom Murphy has started seven games in June at catcher.

And Murphy, over the last 21 days, is the number five catcher in points leagues, but he's actually number one in Roto. Why the discrepancy? Because he's not a full-time player, you know, full-time for a catcher. But in the last 21 days, Tom Murphy's batting 330. with six home runs, no walks, 11 strikeouts.

But, you know, Chris, it's not, I don't know that's so much that I'm excited about Murphy, but I just think for Narvaez's owners, it's significant that he's really eating into Narvias his playing time. I'm a little bit excited. I'm not unexcited about Tom Murphy, at least as a number two catcher, which, you know, is a little bit damning with faint praise, but his minor league numbers were really good. He was someone that we always wanted to see got a chance with the Rockies, and maybe he's, you know, turning into a guy who has.

at least against lefties can really rake. And that might be enough to make him a number two catcher. Narvaez has also slowed down quite a bit. He hasn't been terrible, but basically he split the season in two. He had like a 980 OPS in the first half of the season so far. And it's been like a 720 since then. So he's slowed down enough that it's not necessarily this huge loss. it's pretty much just lefties

Murphy's starting against he's only made in that span of time you were talking about only one start against a righty no is that right Narvaia Narvaia yeah Narvaia's started four straight games before the last two

one of which was against the lefty so yeah I mean I still think Narvaez is a guy but Murphy's one of the better backup catchers right now I guess they have faced a lot of lefties this month all right well that's actually very helpful so that's better news for for Narvaez than I thought because it could just be a platoon thing.

Okay, I don't think we have to spend much time on this. But sneaky storyline, Daniel Vogelbach is probably going to play just about every day. He'll start against lefties. That's according to the broadcast last night. I couldn't wait to watch the Royals Mariners game, so I've got that little nugget for you. Here's a sneaky storyline. Alex Bregman has been much better in points leagues than Roto leagues. Number two shortstop in points leagues, number six shortstop in Roto leagues.

Bregman, when I say Roto, I'm talking 5 by 5 with batting average instead of OBP. Bregman's batting 265 with 19 home runs and three steals. The runs and RBIs are good, but they're not great. 48 RBIs, 47 runs. He's got 14 more walks than strikeouts. So that is why he's been so much better in points leagues. The batting average is a little low, but I mean, I would say that, hey, if you made Alex Bregman your first round pick in a Roto league,

you're probably a little disappointed. Sorry to say it. I mean, he is underperforming expected batting average. Again, that seems to happen. And like the same time, like being sixth that shortstop is different for being sixth that most other positions.

I imagine a hot streak could move him. I don't know if it'd be first. Who's first in Roto? Is it like Mondesie or is it somebody? Trevor Story. Trevor Story. Okay, yeah, that makes sense.

But, like, I imagine they're all roughly in the same range. Yeah, I mean, yeah, they are. We're probably talking about a difference of five hits over the course of the season so far between where you expected his average to be, which was like 285 and where it actually is. So that's a single, what, every three weeks, basically falling in? He has the highest on-base percentage among short stops,

at least ones with significant amount of plate appearances. So the OPP is so much better than the batting average. It'll probably get the batting average up, right, Bregman? Yeah. Yes. Yeah. So he's had a really good year kind of quietly, but 19 home runs, 55 walks to 41 strikeouts for Bregman. I mean, I don't think you can really call him a buy low, could you?

No, not at all. No, no. I mean, if nothing else, like he's validated the power breakthrough a year ago and then some, right? He's only pays for even more home runs. So he's really good. Yeah, I just, I wonder if he just, sometimes guys don't, his production may be sort of evenly distributed. He hasn't gone on like a heater where we're talking about him a lot, noticing him, which isn't bad. Just, you know, that could be why he snuck under the radar.

All right, sneaky storyline. Mike Trout and Mookie Betts each have seven steals. And we're about 70 games into the season, so that's not so good. Trout was thrown out last night. He has seven steals and nine attempts. Right now, Mike Trout, this is going to blow your mind when I get to Betts. But Trout is the number three overall hitter in points, number five in Roto. Betz is the number 14 hitter in points, number 44 in Roto.

In a batting, number 44 hitter in a batting average Roto League, Mookie Betz. I think it's significant that they're on pace for like 16 steals. because that's a big drop, you know, from the 26 to 30 or so that we would typically expect from them. And I don't know. What's your take on that, Scott? I bets is pretty much underperforming across the board, at least compared to our expectations. Power-wise, batting average-wise. He's not hitting the ball as hard last year, so his XBA is actually only 270 while, you know, it was 314 last year and he hit.

Over 300, of course. What did he hit last year? He hit 346 last year? My goodness. Pretty good. He is a guy who, like, you know, tends to just, he tends to hit for higher averages. What am I trying to say here? I think it's probably a good by-low opportunity, I guess, is the way to sum it up in a roto league.

Like, even if you're not necessarily sure the steals are going to bounce back, I think there's a good case to be made that it's just, it's just kind of a quiet start to the season for a guy with a pretty reliable track record, particularly in terms of batting average. You know, we've only seen in his five, I guess five full seasons in the majors now. We've only seen once where his batting average was below 290, and it was in the 260 range like it is now. But yeah, I think that's more the outlier than the other end of the spectrum.

for him. And I don't think there's anything at all there with Mike Trout. Well, let me just say this. Okay, so Scott was just talking about Muky Betts. Let me talk about Mike Trout. I'm going to look at the last two seasons in which he stole 11 bases in 2015, 16 bases in 2014. So it wasn't really a huge base dealer. Where did he finish? Well, but this is something that we talked about with Trout the last couple of seasons is that he hasn't been the number one hitter in fantasy, I think, in like four or five years.

Just let me give the numbers, that's all. 2014, relax, relax, Chris. 2014, he stole 16 bases and was the number one hitter in fantasy. 2015, he stole 11 bases and he was the number seven hitter in points league's number six in Roto. Now, when he was the number one hitter in 2014, you take those fantasy points, He put him this year, or they put him last year, and he would have been the number seven hitter. It's a totally different offensive environment, though. Like, that was during the middle of kind of a dead ball period relative to the rest of the last 25 years.

Offense was down, remember? Yeah. Do you guys remember being worried about offense around baseball? Well, but I guess, and also, like, Trout is a much better hitter now because he's walking more than he's striking out now. or yeah, and at that point he 83 walks to 184Ks but I guess my point is if he steals 16 bases he's probably not going to be the number one hitter in fantasy

Okay Look, it's not a criticism I would take him first overall But I'm just pointing it out like Yelich If Yelich is a 35 homer 30 steel guy he might be more valuable than Mike Trout

You're underselling Christian Yerland Probably Yeah, I mean, he's on pace for a lot more than that. So, like, it makes sense that Trout is behind him right now. I imagine Trout's still behind Bellinger, too, even though Pellinger's, I mean, the power's picked up again, but he went through a little bit of a home run drought there. All right. Here are the best hitters in fantasy so far. In Points, it's Yelich Bellinger Trout.

In Roto, it's Yelich Bellinger story, Josh Bell, Mike Trout. Yeah, like, it's been true for a couple of. of years. Like, this is something that we've talked about the last couple of years. Like, he's had Jose Altuva as the number one player two years ago, and he had bets as the number one player. Like, you can always make a case for someone ahead of Mike Trout. And right now, you can make a case for Cody Ballander. I think you can make a better case for Christian Eilich ahead of Mike Trout. Christian Yelich's last 365 days are like, it looks like he's been playing at course field in the mid-90s kind of numbers. But nobody else has been in the conversation for

the number one player for eight straight seasons like Mike Trout. So even if he finishes third, you're not disappointed in anything that Trout does. You can't be disappointed in that. Like, look, let's say you did go with Mookie Betts instead. Let's say you went with Jose Altuve instead last year. Let's say you went with Bryce Harper instead when he was coming off the MVP season, which was the one time I made that mistake. Yeah.

Like, right. There are always others in the same range as Trout, but they, they tend to not. They don't hold that value like Trout does. Right. No, I agree. Like I said, I'd take them number one, but I do think there's a pretty good case for Yelich in particular. That's the only one.

Steels are, steals are annoying. Like in this Roto League that we're all in, I'm not doing well. I have the second few of steals in the league. I have Trout and Jose Al-Tube. I thought between Trout and Jose Al-Tube, I'd be able to stay afloat in steals.

And even when Al-Tube was healthy, he wasn't running. So, you know, steals are not, for a lot of guys, they're not as predictable as we like them. But also, Trout could steal two bases tomorrow and be on pace for 20. Right. Yeah, he could. And like I say, he got thrown out yesterday. All right. Last sneaky storyline, Trevor's story is great. We haven't talked about it. I mean, look, Trevor's story might not be great if he weren't on the Rockies because his home road splits are pretty drastic.

But Trevor's story is the number one shortstop in fantasy, one of the best hitters in fantasy. and just every now and then I think of a player that we pretty much never bring up and Trevor Story is someone that we pretty much never bring up he did what he needed to do to repeat last season which was maintain the reduced strikeout rate and run like he did last year

those were the two things he had never done before he's continued them and so the production has continued I don't know if he'll finish number one but he'll be in that same range as Bregman and all those other elite shortstop All right, let's talk about yesterday's pitchers.

That's all everybody is talking about these days. I've got, let's see, four categories. I've got the must starts with an exclamation point. The must starts with a question mark. The other guys, like Mike Fires and Tommy Malone. And some guys, who? Mark Wahlberg. Gator needs his cat.

Good movie. It is really funny. Some guys who actually pitched poorly. Okay, the must starts with an exclamation point. Well, I think Masahiro Tanaka, I hope you started him. I'd call him a must start. And 23 swinging strikes. And he actually said that he didn't pick,

that his pitches weren't as sharp as he wanted them. Complete game shut out against the raise. He owns the raise. Jose Burrios, eight innings, one run, gave up three singles in the first inning. And after that, that was it, lights out. 10 strikeouts against the Red Sox, two swinging strikes, number five pitcher in points, number 10 in Rota, Jose Barrios.

Luis Castillo and Soroka are a little more interesting because they were really good, but there were maybe some troubling signs. But Tanaka and Barrios, Scott, Tanaka hasn't really had his splitter this year. It's been very inconsistent. Yet he's got a 323 ERA and a 110 whip. if he gets his splitter back like he seemed to yesterday, I mean, could we be looking at a really great season for Tanaka

if he gets that pitch going? Yeah, I mean, we could be. He has overachieved his peripherals to this point, which is interesting because he was probably a guy who underachieved his peripherals in the past. So, I mean, I don't know. And it was coming off three straight starts with four and runs. Maybe that was some kind of regression that was happening.

I think he's pretty good. I think he's, like you said, must start. And yeah, if he hasn't had his best pitch like we're used to seeing him have, that might explain why the strikeout rate is down and maybe there are better times ahead. I just have a hard time imagining his numbers getting even better than this, because they're already so much better than we're used to seeing from him in a way that seems unsustainable. Yeah, well, interestingly enough, since his rookie season, you know, since the elbow, injury. He's had better ERA is when he's had a lower strikeout rate. Could be totally fluky.

I don't know, but strikeout rates down a little bit this year, but his numbers are a little better. Chris, no, you're not Heath, Chris, Berrios, eight innings, one run, 10 strikeouts, and top 10th and rhodo, fifth and points. He's really good. I think there's probably a little bit of him pitching over his head so far. The peripherals don't quite match up. With the right, but he's very good. Like if somebody values him as a top five starting pitcher, then you can go ahead and trade him. But it's not like I'm expecting him to be bad moving forward.

You know, his Sierra is more like in the mid-3s range than, you know, three. So there might be a little bit of regression coming, but it's going to be really hard to find someone who values Burrios as a top five top 10 starting pitcher and is willing to give you a guy like I'm not even sure who can I interrupt you because like a month ago I said that I thought rios was a top five pitcher rest of season I don't know when I said it and the reason is yeah competition I think it will have a very very easy schedule perhaps the easiest schedule in baseball and wins I think he'll get plenty of those and what's his record right now he's uh eight and three three I I mean

you could argue we should have a better record than that. He's got on the best team in baseball in terms of record, and he's a 286 CRA. So I actually think Barrios might outperform his peripherals and be a better fantasy picture. My thing is, you made that case last time, and so far it has been sure. He actually has a 396 Sierra, so I 394 and a 352 fit. But that would, like, if the competition is easier, that would show up in his peripherals as well. There's no reason to think that he's going against worst hitters, so he won't strike as many out, but he'll get more. Like, you would think if the competition level is lower, it would show up in the peripheral.

So like I said, I think he's more of a mid-3s ERA guy, but yeah, he'll be very good. It's not a question of that. It's a question of whether he'll be elite moving forward. I don't quite buy it. So you'd rather have Trevor Bauer? I don't know. I'm not necessarily, that's the thing is I was kind of rambling my way towards trying to find someone who I would trade him for. And it's pretty tough.

Like I think I'd probably rather have Stephen Strasbourg, but that's, it's close. It's tough to find 10 pitchers to take over Jose Barrios. Scott, you have him. Where do you have Barrios? I mean, my rankings are in need of an update desperately since I was just on vacation, but he's, he's, he's probably outside my top 15. Yeah, 19th. But like the thing is, you got, you got the guys who are so clearly better.

that nobody's going to trade them. Like obviously, Verlander and Scherzer and the aces who have pitched up to their ace potential in every way. And then you have the ones like Bauer, like Cindergaard, who still look like aces in a number of ways, but have underachieved to, in a way that's a little concerning, in which case would you definitely want to trade Berrios for them? I mean, maybe you could, but is it,

Are you for sure winning that trade? No, I don't think so. No, especially if Cinder, I mean, you can't trade for Cindergarde, right? I mean, Cindergards on the IL. I know they say it's going to miss one star, but still, I'm not doing that. No, no. I agree. I agree Boreos has overachieved, but there's so few pitchers who are capable of giving you the innings

and the strikeout. Like, you have one of those guys. You're probably just not messing with them because, like, that's such a luck. And pitching is so hard to predict moving forward that if you're trading two guys in the same range, you're flipping a coin. Okay. And hoping that you get the right side. Let me speed us up here so we can get. I really want to get to Zach Wheeler to have an interesting year and another bad start yesterday.

But Luis Castillo, six walks yesterday in another great start against Houston, six innings, two runs, seven strikeouts, but six walks. He actually has a 11-whip despite 44 walks at 87 and two-thirds because he's been so hard to hit Luis Castillo and he has the fourth highest ground ball rate in baseball. The guy who has the third highest ground ball rate in baseball is Mike Soroka, who not striking guys out in his last two starts. He said he hasn't had the feel for his slider, and that is his strikeout pitch. With Castillo and Soroka, ride it out, sell high. What do you think?

I think you could sell high in Soroka. Yeah. If someone views him as a top 20 starting pitcher, I think he's probably going to be more like a Dallas Kichel. If you look at the minor league track record, wasn't really a strikeout pitcher for the most part. Hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in the majors, but he does get a ton of ground balls,

and he's got good command and good control. But I think he can be a good pitcher, but he'll need one of those seasons where everything goes really well for him to be in ais. Scott, what about Castillo? That might be a scenario where you package a Soroka with something else for like a cinderguard and do a combo, buy low, sell high thing there.

Are you worried about Castillo and all the wall? I wouldn't say I'm unconcerned, but he's such a standout in the other two BIP measurements, the strikeouts and home run prevention because he's a good ground ball pitcher, like you said, that if there's, like that's how you can get away with walking that many batters. I probably not looking to deal him or anything. 235 bab have been 84.6% strand rate, so I mean... 226 ERA. I think you definitely try to sell high.

you can. I think, yeah, I, you gotta aim really high because we like Castillo. It's just again, it's just again, like you're not giving up a pitcher of Castillo's caliber without getting a similar pitcher, a pitcher who beat that

and like who's giving up that pitcher. I would trade, I would trade Castillo for a hour. It just feels yeah, I would too. I would too. Okay, right. Broward Strasbourg. So I just feel like

I feel like better uses of my time if I'm going to try making trades because I feel like a lot of those trades are just like you could try I guess it doesn't hurt to try

so rank Tanaka Barrios Soroka no no sorry Rank Tanaka Castillo Sarroca Barrios is ahead of them I'm not sure yeah that's how I'd rank those three

I'm not sure Burrios is ahead of Castillo for me they're probably about I might put Castillo ahead okay all right let's go to the next section The must starts? Question mark. Are these guys must starts? Rick Porcelo, seven scoreless innings. Is it only seven? Seven. Yeah, it was seven. At Minnesota, eight strikeouts. Last 12 starts, he's a 3-30 ERA and a 105 whip.

Yanni Chorinos. Decent start at the Yankees, six innings, three runs, two home runs. He has a 3 ERA. Joey Lucasey. Joey Lucasey in his last six starts, he has five starts of six or more innings, right after we dropped him in the for the People League. his first eight starts, he'll have only one start of six or more eating. So Lucchese's pitching better lately. And Miles Michaelis, 91% own, 75% started, six scoreless innings against Miami. Coming off two bad starts in a row. So are they must starts? Porcelo, Chorinos, Lucchese, and Michaelis.

Michaelis, by no means, is a must start. It was nice to see him have a good start against the Marlins because they're the Marlins. And if he had had a mediocre start against them, I might have just dropped him. So I guess you can keep him around, but no, he's definitely not a must start based on what he's done so far this season. Peripherals are all at least a run worse than they were last year. He hasn't been the same guy. So no, I don't think he's a must start at all. I don't think any of them are must starts.

I think all of them are, I guess Luc Casey has graduated at this point now where they're must own. And like they're good enough that, okay, I don't have great matchups here. I could go with this guy and hopefully he'll give me some innings. Turn in a win. But none of them are a peripheral darlings, like guys who we feel like could take a next step. They're all probably going to finish with an ERA a round four. I know Chorinos is much lower than that right now. But, you know, his ERA is like a run lower than it should be according to those other metrics.

And I imagine it'll be around four too. And a four ERA for a guy like that. who you just want to plug into your lineup sometimes that's really not bad in this environment. He is a spark, right? We're used to seeing it as bad. Yeah, he is a spart. So that's the one caveat I would say

is Chorinos could be a must start as a spark. And he's seven and three. And he's been used as a starter in each of his last five appearances, not with an opener. Okay, so those are the question mark must starts. Apparently none of them are.

Porcelo, Chorinos, Lucchase, and Michaelis. How about the other guys? Mike Fires. 75% owned. Mike Fires, his last eight starts is 5-0 with a 245 ERA. That includes a no-hitter. He also has a 32 strikeouts in 51 and a 3rd and a 153 Babbitt. Yep.

Andrew Cashner, five quality starts in his last seven. The only two exceptions in that seven-star stretch were bad start at Colorado and also a bad start at home against San Francisco. Tommy Malone, he has been used, I think, three straight times with an opener, and he's been really, really good. That's Malone, 21% owned for Seattle. Tyler Beattie,

first career win, I don't think we care about him. Elias or Hernandez, we do care about a little bit, so that's good to know, 8% own. In terms of Fires, Cashner and Malone,

ownership percentages are very different for these guys, but should they be owned? Fires is way overowned. Yeah. And I get it. Silly. I get it the kind of run he's been on

and he's finding reliable pitchers. But that's, like, we've seen, stretches from him in the past where the command is so spot on that he does dominate for stretches but it always unravels we didn't start mike fires right there's that that whole song for our podcast like it like and the thing is in those past times when he dominated it was with a lot of strikeouts and he's not doing this now i mean just in terms of a babb if like you said being insanely low um like

this is all going to fall apart for fires and it's going to to be sooner than later. Okay. We have some Jen Blossom's teen name Tuesday, so make sure you stay tuned for that. I'm guessing we don't want Andrew Cashner. But Tommy Malone, are you interested in the strides he has made with the opener?

I'm just... I guess he's kind of Mike Fires Light. He does get Baltimore this weekend. Yeah. You know, he's 32 years old. We were talking about him in the same context when he was 25. first breaking into the league.

This guy doesn't strike out many hitters, but, you know. But he is striking out here. He's got 32 strikeouts and 32 and two-thirds. Over a really small sample, not with a lot of swinging strikes. If you're watching our video show, you'll see that he has a little mugshot right next to his name, and it's the Washington Nationals. Generally speaking, if the picture next to your name is from a different team than the one you currently pitch on, you will not be good moving forward.

That's just, it's not a hard and fast rule, but I think you generally won't steer you wrong in life. All right, some guys who actually pitched poorly yesterday, because, you know, everybody was talking about all the great pitching performances. Scott and Chris couldn't stop talking about it. Who pitched poorly yesterday? Zach Wheeler has a 494 ERA. I was in and out tuning into this game. Tuning in and out of this game, I guess I should have said.

Apparently there was some pretty bad defense behind him, and according to my Mets fan friend, the Mets just have a terrible defense, which I'm sure I could look up. But Wheeler's also been bad with Homer. runs this year. He has allowed the same amount of home runs this year as he did last year in in 87 and two thirds fewer innings. It's two pretty bad starts in a row at the Yankees and at the Braves, so good lineups. His next two matchups are at the Cubs and home against the Braves. I don't know. I keep saying sell by low on Zach Wheeler. I believe in Zach Wheeler. Should I

believe in Zach Wheeler? I feel like Zach Wheeler is like the the poster boy. for kind of how we're having to recalibrate pitching expectations in this environment, because his ERA is approaching five. And yet as somebody who owns Zach Wheeler in a league, like they're taking it start by start, there have been enough great starts that I'm not really that disappointed in him. And, you know, part of that's because the fielding independent pitching stats, which is the term I was trying to come up with four, Tritos.

They suggest his ERA should be a run lower than it is. and so he's pitched better than that 5ERA shows. But the other part of it is, like, the strikeout rate is great. He has, I think, more than half a dozen starts with seven innings. Like, that's just so, it's so hard to fight. Like, it's easier, I guess, to enjoy it in a points league than it is in a roto league where, you know, okay, 5% ERA over more innings. That's a bad thing. But even so, like, I would still consider him a by-love.

And even beyond that, I'm not like Zach Wheeler is not the player on my roster. I'm cursing right now. And it is worth noting, as you said, that League YDRA is up. I think about a quarter of a run so far this season. It's the second highest. It's been in the last decade at least when I looked it up yesterday. So, you know, league average for a starter right now is 4-4. So even then, like a 494 is bad, full stop.

But he should be closer to maybe a high three is four. ERA guy with a lot of strikeouts, and that'll have a ton of value moving full. Would you rather have Mike Soroka or Zach Wheeler? Wheeler. I think so. Wow. Okay. Kenta Biaeta did not pitch that well yesterday.

We actually have an email about him, but the email, I'll go ahead and read it right now. It was about his contracts and the innings specifications. Let me see. Oh, here it is. It's from Nick in New Jersey. Hey, Julio Ross, Rich, and Clayton. Look at that they got the email up. Good stuff.

Thank you, video crew. Those are Dodgers pitchers. What's the deal with Kent to My Ada's contractual innings bonus? I remember you mentioning it last year, but I can't remember the specifics. Should I be looking to move Maida after this two-start week knowing he won't be around to help me at the end of the season? Here are the specifics, as I found via the interim. Yeah, it's not like a hard, it's not like he hits 130 innings and gets. I'm about to give them, Chris Towers.

He will receive... I have it in front of me, too. $1 million for each of 15 and 20 starts. $1.5 million for 25, 30, and 32 starts. $250,000 bonus for $90, $1.10, $1.30, $1.50, $6, 70, basically every 10 innings. The $250,000 bonus. And then a $750,000 bonus for 200 innings. And they...

I think what's really interesting is that they seem to be, you know, keeping this contracted mine for all of his starts, because Maeda has only thrown 90 pitches four times this season. So, anyway, what do you do if you're the Maeda owner? It's not like you can sell high. It's not like he's been so good that people are going to be banging down your door to get him on their team, so I think you just stick with him. I don't know.

He's been pretty good. I mean, he's got a strikeout per inning, a 108 whip, 7 and 4, 3870. All right. I mean, that's a really valuable pitcher. I'm not saying he has... Do you have his ranking candy? I mean, the 7 and 4 record, I imagine, elevates him, even though he hasn't been pitching deep into games.

It's hard to get that many wins when you're not pitching deep into game. I'm not saying he's been bad. He's been good, but I don't think he's been so good that people are going to give you some hugely valuable piece in return for Kenton Maeda, because we know what he's done in his major league career. It's not like the person you're trading him for, or the person you're trading him to doesn't know.

Well, that's not true. That's not true. I think a lot of people wouldn't know. A lot of people wouldn't know. Yeah. But you look at the last couple of years, and he's been moved to the bullpen each of the last two years. Last year it was for, what, 19 appearances?

He made 20 starts and 39 relief appearances. You're looking at a computer right now. I mean, this is not something that people just know off top of their head. Yeah, I agree with Adam that people aren't going to be quite that sophisticated in breaking down what's happened for Maeda. They probably just think, oh, you know, he was bad, so they moved into a bullpen, but he's not bad now. I think that's how most people would interpret that, you know, unless they listen to this podcast

or they're really that invested in fantasy baseball, that they're following the Maeda developments that closely. So I'm with that. Like, maybe you could use it to get a Zach Wheeler who's, you know, coming off two terrible starts. Oh, definitely. I think it's very realistic. very realistic. I don't even know that I do that. Because how much longer... I think Maeda is going to be better than him while he's in the rotation.

I think... Oh, I don't... I don't know that he will. I don't know that he will. Yeah, but... I don't know that he will either. I think they'll be similar. So... I think Wheeler's fielding independent pitching stats

make him out to be something like Maida's been, but over more innings. So I would rather have Wheeler. Yeah, but Wheeler's actual stats, he's had one good year in his career, basically, and he's giving up a ton of home runs. So, like, I like Wheeler, too, but I'm not just... My Ed has only had an era below 3-8 once in his career. All right, fair enough. Or what it's worth.

Wade Miley pitched poorly, but I don't want to point out that Wade Miley's had a pretty good year, and he has 48 strikeouts in 45 in a third innings, his last 45 and a third. He's actually become a strikeout pitcher, so that's kind of interesting. Danny Duffy was doing okay, and then it fell apart,

and I started him in a two-star week. Gross. And that's, okay, that's it. So what else do we have? We have team name Tuesday and we have emails. Team name Tuesday. Eggs odor easy. Come on.

We've had that for like two years, guys. Well, why did you put it in the nose? Because I need to recommend people for wasting our time. You are the gatekeeper here, Adam. You decide which emails go in. Guys, it's like eggs over easy. Yes. Oh.

Which I've never had. I get it now. By the way. Fine. I'm glad you explained it. this one bothers me even more. Luck be a genie tonight. How many times do I have to sing

Be a Jeannie's name to that song? Adam, hold on. Adam, it's like the Frank Sinatra song. That's what it's referencing. Joe Be a Jeannie, too. That is obviously your ringtone if you listen to this show. So don't act like you made that up.

This one's good. Potential replacement closers. Watson and Crick. That's good. Watson and Crick. I'm not sure I get. Chris explain that one. one for real.

That's like a science reference. Oh, is that the people who discovered, two of the people who discovered the double helix? Yes. I knew it was science. I had to look it up the DNA. They discovered, I think they discovered. I think there was a couple other people who were involved.

Let's not sell them short. Mo monosy, no problems. Yeah. Okay, and here's this email from Mark says, gin blossoms theme for Chris, which is absolute crap, because I'm a much bigger gin blossoms fan than Chris's.

Jun Jin Blossoms. Sure. Follow you Rendon. Yep. Matt Whistler's at the bus stop. That's good. Whistler's at the bus stop? That's good.

That's good. Until I hear it from Chu. Yep. Found Trout about you. Yep. Could obviously be found trout about Chu. And then a football one, Geronimo Allison Road.

That might be a team name for me this year. That's excellent stuff. All right, let's read some emails to finish the show. By the way, Justin Upton-Homerid in his first pitch that he saw on the season, and Shohei Otani's on fire. Jonathan emails us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I was looking at Exfip and Sierra Leaderboards. I noticed that Verlander is really low on the X-Fip list.

Went a bit deeper into it. His strand rate is 94.6%. Do you think that Verlander might be a sell-high? guy and regression is coming. His advanced stats say that Verlander should be a 3-3-35 ERA guy. Oh no. Yeah.

Okay, maybe. Maybe he has a 280 ERA moving forward. Yeah, no, I don't care what the stats say. Like, we know how good he is. This is one of those things where he'll probably regress on his left-on-base percentage, his strand rate, but we'll do better suppressing home runs or, you know, something like he's so good that I

would bet he'll just be awesome moving forward. Also just final thought on this if you, oh, the emailer said he'd rather have Cole than Verlander. It's reasonable. I think it's an interesting question. It's reasonable. But if you look at the leaders in strand rate, I mean, it

usually is the best pitchers in baseball, right? Because they're just great. You get on base, they're more likely to strand a runner. Is that right? They're more likely to be good because they're good at stranding runner. Sure. Okay. This one is from Carl. Would you drop Framber Valdez to pick up U. Darvish on waivers? Yeah, I would expect U. Darvish will be better. I'm actually, I'm much more interested in U.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.com slash fantasy slash baseball yesterday.

And he's throwing, he's basically swapped out his slider for his cutter, and it's led to some really good results. So I'm pretty pleased with what Darvish has done since I was in May. I'm not keen on dropping Valdez, but I guess if you're in the type of league where Darvish is unowned, I guess you might have to do that. From no name, dear Rick, Neil, Vivian, and Mike. No idea. Should I pick up Jesus Lazardo or Chris Paddock? A Paddock. I mean, Lozardo is hopefully going to be what Paddock has been. Right.

So why not take Paddock? What is Young? Yeah, I'd rather have Patty. Young ones. If I have to pick one. Is a TV. British shit sitcom called Young Ones. That's Rick Neal.

Very. Uh, Ola Mucchos. This is Philip from Cincinnati. Rest of season. Do you like Anthony Rizzo, Pete Alonzo, or Josh Bell? Also, is an avocado, a fruit or a vegetable? Rizzo, and it's very obviously a fruit. I think it's a vegetable.

It's a fruit. Actually, in Brazil, they eat avocados with sugar. So, fruit. Like, this is, this is the same. bait that happens with... Like, I think botanically speaking, an avocado is a fruit, but did you know, botanically speaking, a banana is a berry? Like, it's just kind of a dumb standard.

Nutritionally speaking, I think an avocado would be closer to a vegetable. It is considered a fruit. How about that? Of course, it's a fruit. All right, last email here. I've been accused of ripping someone off, and I'd like to address it. It is from Andrew C. in Cincinnati. Adam, is good nature, by the way.

You said on yesterday's show that you invented... slash wanted the stat quality appearance to be implemented in your league. I want to point out that I discussed this and wondered if there was such a thing in my email to you in March 12th, which I included below. I'm not here to dispute who thought of it first. I'll let you have the credit since it's your birthday week and also your first father's day. Just when this rule is eventually implemented, please ask Mr. Manfred to name it the Andrew Amendment to Quality Starts. Of course, in honor of your son and not at all myself. All right, so Andrew has his original email in this.

Because he says I ripped him off. I play in a 5-by-5 league that replaces wins with quality starts. I could probably find the answer by Googling, but I want to hear your take on how openers could affect the quality start category. If Charlie Morton enters the game in the second inning up 1-0, pitches six full innings, and the game ends with the raise winning 1-0. Does that award a win and a quality start to Morton? Just a win to the opener?

Or does no raise opener slash follower receive anything, and whoever pitched the ninth receives a save? The opener philosophy makes quality start the exact leagues. more interesting. There's nothing in there about quality appearance. Nothing. Not at all. We can all agree that you stole this from Andrew. Not at all.

We'll be talking to legal. I did not steal anything, Andrew. I do appreciate it. I will name it the Andrew amendment, certainly after my son, but not after you. But thank you for the email. I have to go. I want everybody to remember the time when Chris interrupted me to give

Kent to Maeda's contract details. It was very rude. But I'm glad we talked about all that pitching from yesterday. We'll be back tomorrow on fantasy baseball today. See you later, everybody.