Fantasy Baseball Today - 06/27: Morton, Donaldson, "FOOLED YOU" and the Circle of Trust (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 27, 2018

Chris and Scott discuss excellent starts from Charlie Morton, Freddy Peralta and Nate Eovaldi and cover everything else you need to know from around the Fantasy Baseball landscape. We find out which SPs are in Scott's circle of trust and if the guys are ready to drop Jake Junis, Also: Matt Carpenter is destroying baseballs, Josh Donaldson had a setback, Jake Arrieta continues to frustrate his owners and there's much more to get to. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's Wednesday on the fantasy baseball today podcast. I'm Chris Towers, filling in for Adam Azor as host. Here with Scott White. Scott, how's it going? It's going great, Chris. It's going good. I hope. I hope this is a good podcast, for one, because I'm filling in for Adam and that always just makes me nervous. I don't think it sometimes is as punchy. But also, we're starting a little later. We should all be a little more awake, a little more refreshed. Are you feeling good? Are you ready?

Oh, I am so pumped for this. All right. Good. Out of my mind. We are going to be talking about Tuesday's games, of course. We're also going to be playing a little fool-dew. We're going to be talking about Scott White's Circle of Trust. I don't know if you saw that in notes, but that's what we're doing.

Oh, great. I'm just going to be asking weather pitchers. This is a conceit that you came up within an article, what, last week? Yeah. And, yeah, we're just going to be asking which pitchers are in your circle of trust and which one aren't based on who pitched on Tuesday. There were just a ton of injuries yesterday or at least injury related news, so we'll get to that. And we'll get to your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. But first, let's talk about some standouts from Tuesday's game.

Scott, who do you got? Well, I have Charlie Morton, I think, is a reasonable. place to start. 13 strikeout game, one away from his career high, bouncing back from a few starts where I think we were a little worried about him. 14 walks combined in his previous three starts, only two in this one. So he certainly looks back on track. And then maybe somebody on the bad ends, somebody who continued to do something that was worrying us, Jake Junis, three home runs allowed for the third time in four starts. And it's not like he's, he's a pitcher who allows a lot of fly balls.

So that's concerning that that's a trend that could potentially continue. And with no offense backing him, he's looking borderline here in mixed leagues. He's had a potentially drop. He's had a strange season. Just looking at the game logs, he's had six starts with no home runs allowed. And five starts with at least three. What do you make of that?

He has a 4-6-7 ERA for the season, 714 in the month of June. So I had been making of it that there were just a couple starts where his stuff was off and giving up a pass for those those couple starts where he gave up a lot of home runs. But now it's obviously become a lot more than that. Three of four with three home runs. That is a very discouraging trend. Maybe he'll be better in July. because maybe there's too much pressure.

Yeah, maybe there's too much pressure to live up to his name. Maybe, maybe. You know what? I am regretting everything now because I feel like I miss the most obvious standout. You want to know the most obvious one? The most obvious standout was Matt Carpenter. Ooh, that's a good one. Okay.

That's a good one. I was thinking more... On the bad side? No, on the good side. Okay. Somebody who was, I don't know that he's widely available now, but he was a week ago. And that is Freddie Peralta. Okay, yeah, that was a good one.

Yeah, that was one hit and seven shut out. And he's the guy who opposed Junis, actually. One hit, seven innings start with ten strikeouts. And what, beyond just the line, which was good enough, obviously. The fact that he threw a pitch other than his. fastball a quarter of the time, because the curveball, which is the secondary pitch he was purported to have. He threw it a quarter of the time. That alone is good news, but nine of his 17 swinging strikes came on the curveball. So he seemed to be an effective pitch for him. If he has a

legit breaking ball to pair with a fastball, but clearly the success he's had throwing it 80, 90% of the time is a really good pitch itself. That's exciting. Yeah, Freddy Paralta, seven shutout endings allowed one hit. It was the Royals, one walk. But he now has a 159 ERA, 35 strikeouts, nine walks in 22, and two-thirds innings in the majors. And that's really just continuing what he's done in the miners. Now, he's, it's weird.

When we talk about stuff, we're usually, that's usually just means he throws hard. Freddie Perlta doesn't throw hard. But people just can't hit his first. fastball. His fastball average is 91. I think he peaked at like 93. He does not. He has below average velocity. It's a little Alex Woodian, except Alex Wood's secondary pitches tend to be a bit more effective. But it's been, it's worked in the high minors, tons of strikeouts, really good results. And so far in his major league career, it's worked. Do we think he's going to stay in the rotation? Zach Davies is working his way back from shoulder.

Andrew, I believe. That's the question, because obviously Ulys Chasine and will Junior Gera. Junior Gera, yeah. They've both exceeded expectations in a dramatic way.

So, like, it'd be easy to knock one of them out for Freddie Peralta if they weren't doing that. But because they've been pitching so well, I don't know what the Brewers are going to do. Zach Davies, I mean, he doesn't deserve to stick over Peralta, but I think he will just because he was a 17-game winner last year. Yeah, I kind of, and we do have Jimmy Nelson kind of slowly working his way back.

He was their breakout ace last season. I'm of the opinion that personally I wouldn't mind seeing any of those people kicked out of the rotation for Peralta or Nelson once they get back. You look at the peripherals, all these guys just, they kind of sort of look like league average pitchers at best, and the brewers are a team that that needs the upside of a Peralta and a Nelson in their rotation. But it's going to be really interesting. Do you think Peralta, who is 85% owned, is a must-own player in fantasy baseball? Yeah, I think it's worth owning and seeing what the Brewers decide to do, because if he

sticks around, obviously, that could be an exciting pitcher for you. Agree. He looks really good, really interesting. Do you have any other standouts from yesterday? I mentioned Matt Carpenter. He went five for five with two home runs, three RBI, and a double. I remember when he wasn't doing well? Was hitting 160 on May 15th with an OPS around 558, let's say? He's hitting 349 with an 1,100 OPS since. Carbenter's been awesome.

Is he a must start player? How high do you have Matt Carbender ranked at, was he first, third, and second eligible? So I moved him back up. He's on the verge of top 12 status, and that's largely because, I mean, they're just all good options at each of those positions. He's clearly must start right now, and it wouldn't surprise me if he's just to stop the rest of the way,

because we love the bat at ball trends. Even before he heated up here, obviously he's been a good on-base guy. Very exciting turn of events here for a player. I don't think we ever completely lost faith in him, but it was starting to get, it was starting to get a little concerning. And I, on that topic, I want to point out something that Heath Cummings tweeted yesterday. If you look at, if you compare the infield positions, the number five first baseman, actually has fewer points.

This was before yesterday's games, but the number five first baseman has fewer points than the number five second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop. the number 12 first baseman has two and a half more points than the number 12 second baseman, but fewer than the number 12 third baseman and shortstop. And the number 18 first baseman actually does have the most points of any position. So I think that feels like it makes sense based on what we've talked about. That shouldn't be surprising. But it does get into, you know, Matt Carpenter, multi-eligible players in general, that's valuable because of the versatility,

but you can start Matt Carpenter at first base just as easily at second base, potentially. Yeah, it's kind of... I feel like it's kind of made those guys more valuable because with the multi-eligible guys, just going back a few years, particularly when it's 3-plus, there was usually a position in there

that was so obviously weaker than the others. And this has been a trend we've seen the last two or three years where the infield, it's just flattened. Yeah, there's been kind of a normalization there across the infield. I would still say first base is the deepest, as the numbers, even to this point, seem to suggest, and short stuff is still the shallowest, but it's not, like, that used to be a stark contrast, and it's just not anymore. Yeah, I think it's more like the positions are kind of the same one through 12, but there

are, you know, 12 more first baseman who could potentially be in that top 12. There's maybe four or five second basement or shortstop who could be in that top 12. I think that's where you get into the depth. It's not among the starting caliber players. It's the next tier, which is where you're usually drawing your DH or utility from. All right. That's true. Let's talk about the big injury news. There was a lot of it. We'll stick with the big ones for now. Josh Donaldson suffered a setback. his rehabilitation in Florida, he'll be re-evaluated in three weeks, but they found another strain in his calf. This is bad news. This is a, is it as bad as last year at this point?

Has it has the injury lingered as long as last year's day? I feel like it has been. Well, we could pull up the game log and compare. It feels worse. Yeah, it feels like there's been a couple of fakeouts here. Yeah. Plus, just the fact that it's happening again. I think the cumulative effect there is at least going to change his perceived value in a way that can't make Donaldson owners feel good because you're not going to get fair value in a return. No, you got to hang on to him. I don't even know what fair value is, to be perfectly honest. Well, it's important to remember that basically from the All-Star game on last year, he was the best hitter in baseball. So that that's why I think it's hard to trade him, is that

yes, the injury is frustrating. Yes, it is hurting his value. Yes, it tampering his season. But we know what this guy is capable of. I don't think you can trade him for a discount right now. So he was basically healthy, at least healthy enough to play from May 26th on last year. This is...

Okay, yeah. So we're going to be almost two months later. So he can come back in three weeks. It's just going to be re-evaluated in three weeks. So who knows? But yeah, this is rather than dump him for probably what would be, you know, I just put together the most recent trade values chart yesterday. And I put him kind of behind like the Eric Hosmer, Andrew McCutcheon types, like guys who are definitely owned. Yeah, that tells me that I shouldn't trade Josh Donaldson.

Right, right. I mean, he has the chance to be more impactful than that range of players. If you have the means to fill out a lineup without him, which, depending on the depth of your league, you may not. And you may be in a desperate situation. All right. Chris Bryant was placed on the 10-day DL with a shoulder injury retroactive to June 23rd, the last time he appeared in a game. The Cubs were trying to keep him off the DL, but this one doesn't sound like,

like it's super serious. It's just one where I think you can go retroactive on the DL up to three days, I think. And a lot of teams, once you reach that point, they're just like, well, if you can't play the next three games, we'll just take the week, make sure it's fully healed. I'm not sure if the same can be said for Lorenzo Kane, who was placed on the DL with a groin injury. The Brewers did call up Keon Broxton. Any interest in Keon Broxton? No, I don't think he's going to play much.

And that's a good thing, because him not playing much will give Jesus Aguilar the chance to play more. He's got another start yesterday, and of course he doubled and homered, because that's what he does every time he plays. And hopefully that makes, that's every day a bathroom. If he's an everyday player, Aguilar, I think he must start. Obviously, he can't play center, but Yelich can and Eric Thames can play right field. So it's definitely, there's definitely room for Aular to get in the line of time bases. Disappointing for Lorenzo Kane, who has just been spectacular this season on pace for, I believe a career high in home runs and stolen bases, walking a ton.

He's just been everything we could have hoped for. Hopefully it's not a serious injury and hopefully it doesn't slow him down. That would be the thing to worry about once he comes back from this growing injury is does he keep running? Hopefully he does. Dylan Bundy was placed on the DL with an ankle injury. Buck Showalter did say they hope he'll be back by July 6, so that should get him two more starts before the All-Star Break, I believe. So that would be good.

It doesn't sound like it's serious there, but we'll keep an eye on how he recovers from that. I believe he injured himself fielding, stepped on the base awkwardly. And Carlos Correa was out of the lineup Tuesday with back stiffness. It was originally reported as just an off day, but that's something to keep an eye on backstiff. And something to keep an eye on right now at this point in the season is we're, what,

two weeks away from the All-Star Break, right, Scott? Yeah, that sounds right. And I don't want to, this is not really related to Carlos Correa, so I don't want to confuse anyone. Three weeks from the All-Star Break. I don't want to confuse anyone. But if you have a situation like Lorenzo Kane, maybe, it wouldn't be terribly surprising to just see him sit out until the All-Star Break. because that gives you an extra, what, five days to get healthy.

If, you know, does it really make sense to rush all the way back? We'll see. That's something to keep in mind, especially over the next couple of weeks, we may see more players placed on the DL with stuff that they might have just played through. Now, I don't know, I don't know that it's such a bad situation for Kane because they were hopeful at first that they missed the DL. but growing injuries, like, you never really know.

It could certainly be three weeks like you're suggesting. Yeah, I don't mean to pin that to any specific player. I just wanted to point out that we're at that point in the season where a more minor injury could lead to a longer layoff than you might otherwise think, whether that's Lorenzo Kane or whether that's Dylan Bundy or any of these guys. We'll see. But it's something to keep in mind. Something else to keep in mind is that if you're looking to go to a base,

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and let you know which seats will give you the most bang for your buck. It's the best app for tickets, download the Seekig app, and use the promo code Fantasy for $20 off your first purchase. Scott. Scott. Yeah, I'm here. Hi. I got to go straight into whatever you were saying.

I wanted to know you were there. I can't see you. I've got my head turned away from the screen. I'm looking at the back of your head, by the way. That's weird. Let's talk. Shave and neck, you're fine. You're a good shave.

I went to the barber last week. Let's talk about the circle of trust. I'm trying to think of a good meet-the-parents reference, but the only one I can think of is about nipples, so we'll just move on and just do the circle of trust. Is Jake Arietta in the circle of trust? Okay, so the idea of the circle of trust. Yeah, why don't you introduce it?

Yeah. The idea of the Circle of Trust is basically, it was my way of classifying pitchers who are obviously too good to drop. You have to have them on your roster. But the way they've been pitching recently, you can't really have them in your lineup. And Arieta certainly has not pitched well lately. His ERA and his last five starts has gone from 216 to 354. In a way that seems predictable because swinging strike rate was way down. strikeouts were way down.

Peripherals in general. He has a 416 FIP, even with the 354 ERA. There's an argument to me made that he's had some good luck. Sure. And I think it could be corrected even beyond the FIP because his home run rate, I think, is so low. He's got a lot of ground balls, but unbelievably low still. Yep.

He went five innings, gave up three earned runs, six, six. total. There was some bad luck with defense, but he also gave up two home runs. Nine hits total, five strikeouts, one walk yesterday against the Yankees. And while it hasn't been good, obviously, I feel like he's still in the circle of trust, which isn't to say he's must start, and it isn't to say I like him. But it's kind of been, like, only one of the start is he allowed five runs. You know, it's not like he's completely sinking.

you right now. And one of those starts was a quality start. Yesterday's start was pretty close to a quality start. Like I feel like if the matchups are good, if he's making two starts, he's still somebody you can start. Has Nate Evaldi moved into the circle of trust? He's about 40% owned in CBSSports.com leagues. He was terrific yesterday. Six innings of one hit ball against the nationals, two walks, nine strikeouts, 13 swinging strikes, five of which came on his splitter. And he said after the game that this was the first time he's had the feel for the splitter since coming back from Tommy John's surgery. He does have a 408 ERA, but that comes with a 0.82 whip, 30 strikeouts, only five walks and 35 in a third innings. Nadee of Aldi, is he pitching his way into the circle of trust?

He kind of changes the rules of the circle. I know. Obviously, he's widely available, but that's okay. That's okay. That's why is he pitching his way into it? Is he someone people need to add? So this was the first start of the 60s made where he's had, I think, even a strikeout for him, much less more than a strikeout per inning. And that's always been the issue for him, as hard as he throws, just not the kind of secondary arsenal that racks up strikeouts. And that's a red flag right there in today's game. You kind of, like pitchers who don't get a strikeout per inning unless they do something else exceptionally well, get ground balls, avoid walks. it's hard for them to be somebody who really contributes in a meaningful way in fantasy.

And although Nate Avaldi has hardly walked anybody so far, he doesn't have a track record of being that extreme control pitcher. So he's still pretty fringy in my mind. Is Carlos Martinez back in the circle of trust? Or was he ever, had he ever fallen into the circle of trust? Carlos Martinez was out of the circle trust. I said he's unstartable right now after his last start. Of course, I picked a great time to commit to that because he passes back here.

In his four starts prior to last night since coming off the DL, he had an 810 ERA with 20 walks and 19 strikeouts in 16 and 2 thirds innings, and that was coming off a DEL stint. So it wasn't necessarily crazy to think that he just wasn't right, but last night we got a pretty vintage, Carlos Martinez, performance, eight strikeouts, two earned runs, six innings, six hits, one walk against the very good Cleveland Indians lineup. And it wasn't just the fact he was walking everybody off the DL.

He came off the DL not throwing his heart and saying he was doing it on purpose because he was afraid of getting hurt again. And it's like that's not a good way to pitch. But Velocity's been good. It was especially good this last start. And it's been good for a couple now. So must start moving forward? Yeah, I would say so. he's firmly back in the circle of trust.

Is Tyson Ross too good to be in the circle of trust? Is he just someone that you're starting now every time out? He's gone nine straight starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer, had five strikeouts and two earned runs and six innings yesterday against Texas. What do you think of Tyson Ross? Actually, I'm losing some confidence in Tyson Ross. I mean, obviously he hasn't struggled enough to fall out of the circle of He's still a, you know, serviceable mixed league option.

But six straight starts with single-digit swaying strikes after having double-digit in six of the previous eight. And Tyson Ross is a two-pitch pitcher. He has a really good slider, but he doesn't throw as hard as he did prior to thoracic outlet surgery. And I think maybe the league is catching up to that. that it's not a diverse enough arsenal for the diminished velocity there to play up in the way it was earlier this season. Again, he hasn't imploded here. He's still fine. I'm just not as confident as I wasn't him.

Maybe, yeah, I'm not as confident as I wasn't him a month ago, that's for sure. And maybe the most obvious sell high candidate in baseball, pitching, getting too good of results. To not be in the circle of trust or to not, I don't know. However, this may be confusing at this point, but too good to bench right now is John Lester. Yes. But it is too good to bench. But 212 ERA. 1.13 in the month of June, 32 innings pitched.

10 walks, 20 strikeouts. That's not very good. A lot of what's gone wrong for Arietta this year has also gone wrong for Lester. They both, it's 218, by the way, they both started to trend that way last year and to take it to another level, just not showing the swing of this stuff they had earlier in their careers. And I mean, Lester himself has a 408 FIP. So, yeah, things are going to correct eventually here for Lester. and the fact that he's tied for, well, he has 10 wins, he's 10 and 2 with the 218 ERA. Yeah, there are going to be plenty of people in your league who are interested in trading for him.

So now might be a good time to do it. The difference between John Lester's ERA and his FIPP right now would be the largest in the history of baseball. Wow. Or at least since 1901 now, I'm sure other pitchers on June 27th probably had similar ones. but he's been... But eventually it corrects is what you're saying. Yeah, and John Lester is probably... I don't even...

Like, I feel like he's someone who could outperform his peripherals, but that's not really been the case for him in his career. So, yeah, it... If you can get something for John Lester, he feels like an obvious trade candidate right now. Yeah, I would agree. If you could get...

Not just something. I mean, you have to get something good. Yeah, yeah. But that's where the trade chart comes. You might want to check that out on the site today. Would you trade John Lester for Josh Donaldson? No. I think I would.

I wouldn't. I mean, I could see a scenario where it might be worthwhile, but I'd have to have a really good pitching staff, I think, to make that future investment. That may not pan out. I mean, it's not like it's... Yeah. We don't know exactly who Josh Donaldson's going to be when he gets back.

I just think he has so much more upset. than John Lester at this point, I'd be willing to do that one. Let's talk about some of the other injuries and notes from yesterday's game. Before we move on, talk about some players who may have fooled us earlier in the season, both with their good and their bad performance. We'll get to your emails at Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com after that, but for now, J.T. Rao Muto missed his second straight game as he continues to deal with a hand injury. Don't know if that one's going to require D.L. Stint,

but they'll have to make a decision in the coming. days, if it will. Brandon Nimmo has a finger injury. He did not start yet again yesterday, but he did pinch run on Monday. MRI results came back negative, so it sounds like it's just a matter of time before he comes back. However, how are you feeling about Brandon Nimmo? The strikeout rate way up over the last month. I think it's like 30% over the last 30 days, walk rate way down. He's still hit for a ton of power, but are, was it, was it a little fool's gold with, with Brandon Nimmo? Should we have included him? in the full juice section.

Spoiler, right, he's not in it. Yeah, I don't think so. I, like, because I can't remember exactly where he was on the leaderboard, but OPS leaders, as recently as before the century. Last I saw, he was leading the NL

in OPA. Yeah, I mean, OPS over 1,000. I think there are like four or five other hitters like that, and they're all the ones you'd expect to go, you know, they're all first round type hitters. So just because he's striking out a little more over a shorter stretch. And it's not like his strike rate for the season is kind of high,

but you look at the BABIP, it's nothing that would lead you to believe he's drastically over. And that also seems like a result of just how patient he is. You're going to strike out when you work the count like that. Yeah. Stephen Wright. Oh, sorry. I'm not worried about it. Stephen Wright was placed on the 10-day DL retroactive to June 23rd with a knee injury.

That might explain why he was so terrible in his most recent start. We'll see. Johnny Quedo will make his next rehab start at AAA on Friday. He's coming back from an elbow injury. Would be nice to see him back before the All-Star break, and it looks like that might happen. Annabal Sanchez was having another nice start yesterday, but he left the start. With cramping in his right calf, doesn't sound serious. he's actually been useful in a sparky kind of way.

So something to keep an eye on in a deeper league. Chad Kuhl left Thursday's game with forearm discomfort. Noah Cindergarde threw a 30-pitch bullpen session yesterday. We'll throw live batting practice on Friday. We'd like to see him go out on a rehab assignment after that. Brandon Morrow hopes to be activated Wednesday. All signs are pointing to that, so that's a good sign. Chris Taylor was out of the lineup with a hamstring injury.

Walker Bueller. threw a bullpen session yesterday. He threw another one on Sunday, so it's good to see him throwing twice in three days. He'll likely need at least one rehab start. But what's going to happen to the Dodgers rotation when Walker Bueller comes back? So...

And remember, this is a guy who probably only has about 90 innings left on his season anyway. Yeah. That's true. But that's obviously still plenty of chances to control. That's a good question because they recently got Hill and Maida back. There isn't an obvious odd man out. Yeah, the Dodger all of a sudden have too many pitchers and too many hitters for their everyday line.

They all came back at once. Kirshaw too came back. And everybody's been awesome. Yeah. That's, hmm. I hadn't considered that yet. I mean, you know how the Dodgers are. Somebody will have some kind of pulled muscle or a toothache or whatever.

And they'll put them on the DL for 10 days. When you've got Rich Hill and Clayton Kirchow on your rotation, you might only be a couple of weeks from your next rotation opening. As sad as it is to say that. The Dodgers are the best at creating rate of rotation openings, though. And they like to rest their guy. I mean, maybe it's Ross Stripling's turn for a D.L. Stint. Preserve his innings a little bit.

Hopefully not. And why can't I think of the Dodgers manager's name? Dave Robert. Dave Roberts. I was sitting Dave Taylor in. I knew that wasn't right. Dave Roberts, I believe, suggested yesterday that they might go with a six-man rotation. And it's not the worst idea in the world with Walker Bueller's innings cap.

Clayton Kirshall's injury issues. Rich Hills injury issues. So something to keep an eye on. Drew Pomeranz will throw a simulated game today. Wednesday, he's coming back from biceps and neck injury. Daniel Mengden was placed on the 10-day DL retroactive to June 23rd with a foot strain. Arodis Viscayano played catch on Tuesday. He's coming back from a shoulder injury.

but it looks like he could be back when he's eligible on Sunday, so he should slide right back in the closers role for the Braves. Ronald Guzman placed on the 7-Day DL with a concussion. Irvin Santana will make a rehab start on Saturday, and Travis Shaw dealing with a wrist injury was out of the lineup on Tuesday. Scott, let's talk about some players who may have fooled us, and that's good and bad. Players who were good early in the season, did they fool us,

players who were bad early in the season, did they also fool us? First, Tommy Fam. This is all based on the last 30 days. So these are basically the players who have had the biggest difference in their production between the overall season and the last 30 days. Tommy Fam, 202 slugging under 300 on base, under 250, three home runs. Only one steal over the last 30 days. Now he's missed some time lately with an illness, I believe,

but 27% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate. Did Tommy Fan full us? That walk rate is so... far removed from what he was doing when he was at his best. Yeah. And, like, he's such a weird player because his vision issues are just unlike anything I can remember seeing in baseball. He's eyesight in his left eye,

I think I read at one point that he's considered legally blind in his left eye. And, I mean, with different exercises and contacts, he's been able to manage the situation. That's really the key to his breakout last year. but it seems like it pops up again from time to time. And I can't be sure that's not contributing to it now. It would be good news in my mind if it is because that means he's capable of going on a tear again.

I'd be reluctant to sell fam right now. I just don't know how much you get for him. Yeah, I mean, I think he's less than less star. You could get something decent for him, particularly in a roto league, I think. But. And remember, during spring training, he did talk about the vision issues potentially coming back. We were worried the last couple of days of spring training. And then he opened the season and was red hot.

Yeah. That's what makes it so hard to judge. What about Yohan Moncada? Looked like he was having a breakout. But over the last 30 days, 39% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate. Even when things have gone poorly for him, he's walked a lot. But right now, not so much. hitting 191 with an OPS in the,

let's call it the 550 range over the last 30 days. Three home runs, four stolen bases is nice, but Y'amakata, did he fool us? Fooled you. That is what I was waiting for. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not making enough contact.

And like we were giving him a pass for that earlier because it was a little bit better and he was hitting the ball so hard, but it's just, I just don't think he's ready yet. He's still a ton of upside and you never know when that's going to break through, but it doesn't seem like it's happened yet. How about a couple of guys who we looked at as breakout outfielders early on? Max Kepler and Corey Dickerson kind of have opposite issues over the last 30 days.

Max Heppler walking a ton, Cory Dickerson. I think he has one walk. I think he's been hit by some pitches, but yeah, 1.2% walk rate for Cory Dickerson. Max Kepler has an OPS in the 58 range, one home run, one steal over the last 30 days. And Corgi Dickerson's just been useless. He doesn't have any home runs, no stolen bases, 259 over the last 30 days. Did they both fool us? Fooled you?

Yeah. Big time. Kepler for me, I was liking a lot of the bad at Ball Trends early, but those seem to have normalized. And then Dickerson, what compounds the problem for him is they, the pirates are having to find a betts for Austin Meadows. Dickerson, Dickerson, Polanco, both are the most obvious choices to sit from time to time to make that happen.

And Polanco has homered twice in his last two games, I think three times his last eight or something like that. So worth keeping in mind he's still super talented. I still believe in him. And I believe that that's good. You know what's funny? I'm opening up Kepler's fan grower. page here. They actually haven't normalized, but they're just, it's, you know, we're half the way

through the season and they haven't led to any improved production. The fact is walk rates up, his strikeout rates down, his fly ball rates up. Well, it could be a Nicholas Castellanos situation where last season, you know, we didn't see any results. And then since like the all-star break of last year, he's hitting like $2.90 with decent power. So it could be, it could be one where the production is, I'm going to retract. I'm going to say Corey Dickerson, us. But Max Kepler, we'll see. Well, I mean, the thing is, like, you don't need to owe Kepler. Sure. Right. So, if we're talking actionable advice,

for all practical purposes, he fooled us. But, but there is that glimmer of hope. All right, what about two guys that we were talking about as, you know, potential, like, serious breakout candidates were, like, turning into not necessarily elite fantasy performers, but really, really good ones. Mitch Hanigur and Ozzy Albies.

Mitch Hanigar over the last 30 days. A 718 OPS, five home runs, one steal, only hitting 236, strikeout rate up to 27%. And Ozzy Albies, 258, not getting on base at all, three home runs, 417 slugging percentage over the last 30 days. Did Mitch Hanigar and Ozzy Albies fool us? Oh, Ozzy Albi is coming back around. five straight multi-hit games. He has figured out how to get hits that aren't home runs again.

He's had a couple of doubles. I think he's had 10 multi-extra-based hit games, which is only like seven off of the Braves franchise record. Jeez. Yeah. Which is Chipper Jones and Javier Lopez, by the way. Though they have the record? Yeah.

They're tied for the record? Yeah. How about that? Yeah. I'm assuming it was in 2003 for Harvey Lopez. I think so. I mean, he's a very good career, but that year in particular was just... So, Ozzy Albies did not fool us.

What about Mitch Hanigar? Because I know you were real high on Mitch Hanigur. Yeah. I mean, he had to regress some. I think it's too early to say he fooled us. I still think he's a top 30 outfielder. Like the strikeout rate, like he's kind of regressed to where he needs to be.

You know, 267 is probably as bad as it's going to get for batting average, because now he's at a 305 babit. He's capable of an above-average babbip. Power production I don't really worry about. He walks a lot. I think he's fine. And now let's talk about some players whose poor starts to the season probably fooled us. I think this is an easier one to call.

Do you know who the best player in baseball over the last 30 days has been, according to Fangraphs, War and Wobah? Over the last 30 days, oh, man, I feel like it's going to be... It's right in the notes. It's right in the notes? It's Paul Goldschmidt. Humidor Shmumador, hitting 380 with a, I don't know, 1260 OPS. He's been incredible.

11 home runs over the last 30 days, zero stolen bases. but he's walking a bunch, strikeout rate after an early, really rough start for him in strikeouts, he was striking out like 30% of the time, down to 21% over the last 30 days. Are we done with the concerns about Paul Gulchman? Yes, and I'm relieved I didn't overreact to those. He's not running.

That's something to keep in mind. That was always a big thing for him. And a Paul Goldschman who steals three bases is a lot different from one who steals, what, 24 last year? Yeah, but what it means... What it means really is he's closer, like he's more within that group of four at the top of the position as opposed to the clear frontrunner. In fact, I think Freddie Freeman is the clear frontrunner at first base now. Goldschmidt.

I have Goldschmidt second and Roto Votto second in points, but they're, you know, they're all elite. Votto another. Votto another fool do. He's hitting 363 with a 1068 OPS. He's not hitting for much power, not really doing much run production. I think that's more a result of the terrible Reds lineup, but only two home runs over the last 30 days, but 22% walk rate, 508 on base percentage.

Joy Votto is still good, leads the National League in on base percentage for the seventh time in the last nine seasons. This one's more interesting, though. Marcelo Zuna, he got off to that really bad start, and I remember you and he's both crowing. Ah, he was a bust. He was never going to be good.

Marcelo Zuna stinks. Get him out. Kick him out of baseball. I don't remember quite that reaction. Direct quote. 3.30 hitter over the last 30 days with seven home runs. He's got an OPS in the 970 range. 8.3% walk rate, but more impressively, 13.8% strikeout rate over the last 30 days.

Him and Matt Carbenter have been, and Jose Martinez have been carrying that Cardinals lineup over the last month. Did Marcelo Zuna slow start fool us? Hopefully not He never fell out of my top 20, 25 outfielders And I don't think he's going to get back to where he was coming into the season Which was borderline top 12 I think he's I think he must start

I think last year will be remembered as his career season But there's probably still more correction to come this season As dreadful as he was at the start of the year fooled you so we got the Space Balls inspired segment we got the Meet the Parents

inspired segment yeah is there a movie man I haven't watched Meet the Parents in probably 12 years so I can't really comment on how that movie's aged my guess is

I fear it hasn't aged super well why not I don't know I feel like a lot of Ben Stiller's movies haven't aged super well, except for... I love to meet the parents, man. I think it's probably one of my ten favorite comedies ever. I mean, I have fond memories. I just haven't watched it.

I will say, Ben Stiller movie that has aged extremely well, I watched it recently, keeping the faith. Good movie. Good movie. I've never seen that. It's the one where he's a rabbi. Ed Norton's a priest, their best friends. Dharma from Dharma and Greg is their friend.

Very good. Highly recommend going back and rewatch and keeping the faith. Now, I think Meet the Parents. It's one of those comedies that I feel like it's the first time I saw it, it was hyped to me, and I'm just like, eh, you know, this isn't like abhoriously funny, but just the uncomfortableness of it.

It's an extremely uncomfortable movie. Yeah, it's just wonderful. You know what's funny, though, is like, We have this circle of trust thing. I introduced not just in a column, but I did a video for it. And so many of the people on video, the video crew, they're younger guys in their early 20s, younger men and women. And the way they were talking about this segment, Circle of Trust,

they thought this was some kind of expression I had made up. Scott, you're so smart. They were calling it like circles. of trust and I'm like do you guys not know what this is from? Like I feel like Circle of Trust entered the

lexicon because of that movie. I feel I... It's an old movie now. I'm not 30 yet and I feel so old when I just walk past the video department. I feel ancient. I feel like I'm literally like the skin is falling off of my bones

when I walk past them. I don't know. I don't We're getting old, Chris. All right. I know you all love fantasy baseball. You're listening to this podcast. You made it this far. Don't you want to play more fantasy baseball?

Don't you want to do snake drafts every single day? You know that's the best part of a snake draft. And don't you want to win Adam Azers money? It's really easy to do. You can do all of that on the draft app or on draft.com. If you use the code FB today, when you make your first deposit on draft, you'll get a free entry into a real money baseball draft. That code is FB today for a free entry.

I love draft. I've played it. I play it pretty regularly. Not as much as Adam because, well, Adam likes giving his money away. It's a different type of DFS challenge. You love snake drafts. First thing you do, figure out how many good pitchers there are on the slate that day.

And you base your draft approach on that. That's the biggest strategy, I think, because those pitchers, they're just so important. They get so many points. But I guess you can go the other way. take a hitter. You should probably take a pitcher. Play regularly, play against Adam. Go to the draft

app or go to draft.com. Use the promo code FB today for a free entry into a real money baseball draft. The code is FB today. We're going to get to some emails. Let's talk about a few pitchers. We can go really let's go really quick on these guys.

Ludicris speed. Frankie Montas. Six earn runs, three innings, three walks, one strikeout. That might have been a fooled you. I know Adam was upset that you forced him to start Frankie Montes in the podcast week.

It was at Detroit. The team that was, the lineup that was giving up 15 plus swinging strikes to everybody. And Montas just flashed a slider in his last start. It seemed like that there were signs of legitimacy there.

Fould you! Yeah, certainly looks that way. Rinaldo Lopez, four earned runs and six in the third inning. He still has a 373. have you seen anything from him that suggests that he's figuring it out oh we were never fooled we were never fooled about reinaldo lopez we can hold our heads high i was for like one start just after his first no after his first start because he was throwing a slider that was the only

thing i didn't say he was good first start of the season his very first start of the season i think no yeah i never yeah i was pretty much off right after that because it was like oh the slider's not that good anyway. Did you get to watch any of Ryan Baruki yesterday? Baraki? I didn't watch any, no. I wasn't able to either. Only four swinging strikes, two earned runs and six innings for the Blue Jays,

three walks, four walks, three strikeouts. Not a great start. I need a AAA struckout 6.8. Yeah, that's, I think he's interesting, but most of the time he's gotten strikeouts, it was in double A. Last year at AAA, I think he was a little better, but. Yeah, we'll see. I remain interested, but I didn't get to watch it.

So we'll see. Matt Harvey, we're not buying this, right? 310 ERA over the last three starts. Only one run allowed. Two strikeouts, one walk yesterday and six and two thirds. I feel like he's getting so lucky. I mean, two strikeouts yesterday. Yeah.

Please. This was only his third quality start and nine chances with the Reds, too. So reports of his miraculous turnaround are greatly exaggerated. Yeah, it's ten. strikeouts in his last 17 and two-thirds inning. Serger Romo got a two-out save for the raise yesterday. He has five. He has the

raised last five saves, I believe. Oh yeah, he's the closer. He's not the opener anymore. He's the closer. That's not super intriguing. Because they're still going to play matchups. No, I think he's legitimately the closer. I don't know that

they've been so consistent with it here the last couple weeks. But I don't think he's good. And so it could fall apart very quickly. All right. Let's talk about some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. If you want to get your email on the show. First one's from CJ from Thomasville, Georgia. Scott, do you know Thomasville? I do know Thomasville. Is it nice? A couple people from Thomasville. I've never been to Thomasville. It's in the southern part of the state kind of southwesternly. Sounds nice. Why doesn't Scott Schaebler get more love, Scott.

He owns very respectable numbers for the season. He's playing every day, and he's killing it in June. Why is the low ownership? Is he missing something here? CJ wants to know. Why do you hate Scott Shebler? Is it because you have the same name? Well, part of the problem for Scott Shebler, and I don't hate Scott Shebler.

I just typed Scoot Shebler. Scoot Shebler. There's Scooter Jeanette, but it's Scott Shebler. And the Braves Oregon play, player plays that Scott Joplin tune whenever Scott Shubler comes up to the plate. I don't know what that tune is. Can you sing it, please? The one that used to always hear it a music class in school.

Like, it's, was it ragtime? It's an example of that. Kind of, whatever. No idea. No idea what you're talking about. 10 home runs on the season, 30 RBI, has only played in 60 games. He missed some time in April, right? Well, I think he's pretty good if I could trust him to play every day,

is what I'm trying to get out of my mouth. Winker's been better lately. Duval and Hamilton are superior defenders. So Shebler is kind of the fourth outfielder there. I mean, he plays a lot still. It's kind of an Austin Meadow situation. But until they find a taker for Hamilton, he's going to be somebody who you can really,

only use in five outfield release. All right, Matt emails, Dear Gregori, Gregorius, and Gregor. What are we thinking about the prospects for Gregory Polanco for the rest of the year? Do you think his recent production could be a sign of better things to come in the second half?

Maple Leaf Rag is the name of the Scott Joplin tune. Can you hum it? Don't hum it. Not really. There's too much going on. It's not a very distinctive melody. So Gregory Polanco in the month of June, hitting just 245, but with an 869 OPS. He's still walking a ton.

He's not striking out very much. He's still hitting for decent power. He's just not playing right now. He only has 65 plate appearances. 15 starts in the month of June. And that is over 23 games for the Pirates. So he's just not playing every day. That's the problem.

That's part of the problem. He's also hitting 2.20, but the Babbup is low, but how long can we hold on to that? I don't know. That's... I guess we're kind of in the same place, and obviously Carpenter has taught us you can never have too much patience. Yeah. Well, you can have too much patience. You shouldn't start Gregory Palanco right now. Yeah. Yeah. Never's a little strong, I guess. it's not an apples to apples comparison because obviously we've known Carpenter we had known Carpenter to be an MVP level player

in the majors in the past And we've hoped the Palanco The bad at ball trends were just They were ridiculous for him even when he was struggling And they're just, you know, pretty good for Palanco So I don't know Polanco doesn't need to be owned except in five outfield elites All right, Andrew in Denver

He's in a 10-te-to-head categories league And Justin Turner was dropped Is that crazy? 10-teen categories league? I think it's crazy no matter how big the league is, unless it's like a 14 league. Well, I mean, you've been right about these players with the hammate bone injury, not flashing much power when they've returned. And Turner's another example of that.

Plus, of all the players who sit for Max Muncie from time to time, he sits the most often. So I don't know. I mean, I've been reluctant to drastically lower him in my third base rankings. I think the upside's barely... He's on the fringes of top... He's on the verge of dropping out of the top 20s. I just think the upside is too high there.

It is a lot of upside, but... Like, he has probably not first round hitter upside, although he was that good last year, but certainly second or third round hitter. You know, he has pre-2016 J.D. Martinez upside, I think. Well, it's hard to know without knowing all the roster configurations and the kind of players available on waivers. He says he just picked up Jake Bowers.

Surprises me he'd pick up Jake Bowers in a 10-team league, but Justin Turner obviously needs to be more owned than Jake Bowers. So that makes it an easy call. Noah from Grand Rapids, Michigan, what young starters who have struggled are worth a buy-low? and this is a kind of tough one just because I'm just springing it on you so I'm going to fill some time

It's not those questions that you don't like have You kind of have to scroll through the rankings to figure out I mean okay there's one obvious one Yeah Luis Castillo 570 ERA It's been Mostly a down season there was like a four start stretch where he was up But the talent is too is too obvious

for me to just give up. I think he's absolutely worth. If somebody drops him, I'm picking him up. I'm keeping him on my roster. I haven't dropped him. The control hasn't been as good as we hoped it would be. He's giving up a ton of home runs. But just watching him pitch,

like he looks like, you know, he has the potential to be a poor man's Louis Severino. He has the potential to take a Jose Barrios type of leap. And so I love the upside there too much. Also, John Gray. Yep, that's exactly who I was going to say. He has been, like in terms of pure stuff, he's taken a big leap forward this year. His swinging strike rate went from kind of average last year to exceptional.

And he just doesn't have the ERA to back it up. But that seems like something that's going to have to correct itself. Even knowing he pitches half his games at course field, he's been a pitcher who hasn't been too affected by that. And I'll throw Zach Wheeler out there. less upside Vince Velasquez with a little more. I think Vince Velasquez in particular could be a closer to a mid-3s ERA kind of pitcher. So I'll definitely throw his name in this discussion. And I'm still high on Domingo or mom.

Yes, you are. All right. Michael, go twins. Should I drop one of Randall Gritchick or Teosker Hernandez in favor of Jake Bowers? I'd do Gritchick for Bowers I think Gritchick and Hernandez are very similar players a lot of power

decent speed I think Teoscar probably has a little more Gritchick's been so hot though that's what's hard that's what's tough for me to for me to give up on I would hope I have a player with less upside than those two guys

because I think either Teosker Hernandez or Randall Gritchick could hit 30 homers this season like Teoscar Hernandez is a fixture in the Blue Jays lineup. Yeah. And he's been valuable in points leagues, too, in a way that Gritchick, I don't feel like ever

has. I mean, Gritchick's played pretty regularly of late, but there's Granderson Morales Gritchick. One of them seems to sit every day. All right. That's going to do it for today's podcast, Scott. Thanks. Just thanks. Yeah.

Thanks for putting together these notes, Chris. Oh, I know. Let's see if you can stick the landing better than Adam can. Um, probably not. I don't think I'm going to be. I don't think there's a single thing I do better as a host than Adam Azer, besides mess up, which I do pretty regularly. So, no, I'm not going to do the ending better.

I'm not even going to do the starting pitchers for today. I'm just going to, I'm going to make sure that Adam can clear the low bar that I've set today. So for Scott White, for Adam Azer and he's coming. I'm Chris Dowards. We'll see you tomorrow.