Fantasy Baseball Today - 06/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Strategy Talk, SPs to Add, Trades

Episode Date: June 28, 2017

Another action-packed Wednesday show as we give you SPs to add, review yesterday's standouts and grade your trades. It's time to pick up Sean Newcomb (2:40)! ... Worryometer Wednesday (19:00) with Jak...e Arrieta, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana and James Paxton, plus a look at closers who are struggling right now (22:46) ... We discuss strange seasons for Mookie Betts and Kris Bryant (25:00), then we discuss our preseason pitching strategies and how they are working out for us (43:00). We grade your trades at the end of the show (58:00) ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:14 Welcome for the show, everybody. On Wednesday morning, that meets it's a grade the trade day on fantasy baseball today. Scott traded Cody Bellinger. We'll give it a grade and we'll, of course, grade your trades because that's what you're here for, not Scott's trades. Adam Azer, Scott White, and Chris Towers today. And reminding you that sports trades are scary. One person can be replaced by another exchange for money or given away for a hypothetical future person. And once they leave your team, you can't like them anymore, even if you have their jersey, which you can't wear anymore.
Starting point is 00:00:43 except at B-dubs. They won't judge, but others might. Buffalo Wild Wings, Wings, beer, sports. Welcome to the trade show, guys. Good morning. Hey. How you guys doing? What's going on?
Starting point is 00:00:57 You know, I already told you I'm fired up today, so. It's a good day. It is a good day. The Knicks are getting rid of Phil. Yeah, whatever. After, you know, three weeks after picking up their mutual option for two more years. so Bill Jackson gets $24 million out of the deal. Pretty nice.
Starting point is 00:01:17 Oh, my God. Can't knock that hustle. My sports teams are terrible, but at least fantasy is doing okay. Hey, the only team I care about is the Marlins, so I don't want to hear anything. It was an interesting night for pitching last night. It was a very interesting night for pitching last night. Yeah, a lot of big performances from pitchers who either we were on the fence about or maybe we were just a little over the fence on them. Lots to talk about today.
Starting point is 00:01:41 Can I give you my favorite pitching stat from last night? Yeah. All right, so you know how Yvonne Nova is a good pitcher? He has a 3.06 ERA. He's been very good since getting to Pittsburgh. Sure. He doesn't have a single start with more than 10 swinging strikes this year. Luis Severino had 10 in the first two innings yesterday.
Starting point is 00:02:00 Wow. And he couldn't even get the win. That Severino stat is fiery. Yeah, he pitched great. He's so good. The White Sox are a really good matchup right now. The last two starts for Severino weren't so great, but overall we certainly believe in him. Man, you are down on the Yankees.
Starting point is 00:02:17 You're diminishing your own star's accomplishment. Well, I think, you know, with Severino, he's been a touch up and down lately. Oh, yeah, that's, who isn't a touch up and down starting pitcher? I totally, everybody's on board with Severino. Okay. I just hate the Yankees. But which other pitchers? Like Scott White was.
Starting point is 00:02:40 tweeting about Sean Newcomb. Sean Newcomb's on the brain for Scott White. Yeah, do you want to say he was facing the Padres and they're a good matchup all ways? He was facing the Padres. That's true. He was facing the Padres. But he didn't face the Padres previously. He's been very good.
Starting point is 00:02:56 Who did he face in his last start? Who did Sean Newcomb face in his last start? The Giants. Giants are terrible. They are the worst team in baseball. You're the worst team. Actually, I think Sean Newcomb's really interesting. So he's 68% owned.
Starting point is 00:03:15 He threw six scoreless innings with one walk and eight strikeouts. His previous start was six innings, one run ball with three strikeouts against the Giants. Only 68% on, but listen to this quote from Andy Green, San Diego's manager. Quote, that was the largest strike zone I have seen against our guys behind home plate. Newcomb threw the ball very well. But Tyler Flowers is the player of the game in my mind. He is snatching balls above the zone below the. the zone and bringing them back in and getting a strike on all of them.
Starting point is 00:03:42 He is considered one of the best pitch framers, Tyler Flowers, which is why I was not so interested in the Brace pursuing Matt Weeters this offseason. But, you know, this is four good starts for Sean Newcomb. Now, this was the best of the four, and it was, again, it was with the best matchup of the four. But, I mean, any pitcher beginning his career with four good starts and with, you know, with a good number of swings and misses and without the one real issue he had in the miners,
Starting point is 00:04:14 which was control issues. We haven't seen those pop up. He had four walks in the start against the Marlins, I guess. But overall, it hasn't been nearly the concern we suspected it might be. And I think he should be must-own. There's been some question this week about whether or not he'll make a second start. I don't, I have not heard anything about Bartolo Cologne starting tonight. He is.
Starting point is 00:04:38 He is. Where did you see that? In the Associated Press recap, they said Bartola Colon is starting today. Okay, well. And looking at baseball savant's strike zone, he probably got four pretty generous called strikes. Actually, I don't know if they were even called strikes. They could have been swinging strikes.
Starting point is 00:05:03 There were four pitches way outside of the zone. But for the most part, it doesn't look like he had. that generous of a strike zone. Well, I guess if he's going to be, if he's going to have some control issue, Sean Newcomb, it's nice to have the catcher that he has, which is also why I brought up the quote. It says in the story that Bartol Colon is expected to come off the DL and start today. Yeah, there's a story on MLB.com about him getting one last chance today. Scott, I will give you Sean Newcomb and Tom Murphy for Jonathan Lucreoy in a two-catcher roto league.
Starting point is 00:05:36 Sean Newcomb and Tom Murphy? Yeah. That's basically Sean Newcomb for Luke Roy straight up. Yeah. Right now. Murphy's not playing very much, but we all think he could be very good someday. Yeah, I'm just not sure that day will be soon enough for me to give up a superior catcher. I do have some concerns about Sean Newcomb and his long-term viability right now just because he's mostly been a two-pitch pitcher.
Starting point is 00:06:04 he's only thrown eight changeups in four starts the sliders not really been a big part of his arsenal either he's mostly been forcing fastball and curveball and for lefties that can be a concern because you do have to have you do need that pitch that can neutralize the platoon split so we'll see how that goes once the league starts to catch up to him that's a potential red flag but he should be 100% on at this point i'm so bum colonna starting now you don't know how many people people on Twitter, I told, I assured that Newcomb was making two starts this week. Because every time, like, every time I looked up Bartolo Colon, Wednesday on Google, I got references to him, his start that was supposed to happen last Wednesday, but then he gets suffered another injury, and it was like, who knows when he's going to start again. You know what, though? I don't know how all these probable pitcher tools out there knew he was starting Wednesday, but nobody was reporting it.
Starting point is 00:06:59 Yeah, but he... How all of a sudden he is. Newcomb, look, you got a really good start from him. You're not even going to complain about the one-star week, so you can be happy about that. I guess I just still can't fully get over the concerns about the control because it was so pronounced in the minor leagues. And like Brandon Finnegan, you know, like Finnegan had that – Finnegan only had one great start to start the season. It was against the Phillies, seven scoreless, one hit, one walk, nine strikeouts. That was his first start.
Starting point is 00:07:27 And then his control went awry, and then he went on the DL. But – Yeah, nook him is – Yes, nobody's giving Sean Newcomb rookie of the year or Cy Young, but he's 66% owned or something like that. Like, we don't need to be that critical with the guy who's so widely available. Just pick him up, see where it goes, because it seems like it's heading a good direction. You have to have a pitcher you're okay dropping. Yeah, look, Newcomb, I would definitely owe it, but I'm going to try to trade up to Scott.
Starting point is 00:07:51 So we have a Reddit AMA today. Reddit.com slash R slash Fantasy Baseball, 2 p.m. Eastern. If you have any questions that we don't get to on the show, feel free to hop on to Reddit, and we'll try to answer your questions. The only thing you have to do for us is spread the word about our podcast. Tell your friends, help us grow. And obviously, we've grown a lot over the seven or eight years that we've done this, but we want to be number one.
Starting point is 00:08:16 I think we're already number one in fantasy baseball. We want to be number one overall. In the world. Fantasy football today. That would be good for baseball, I think. If we were number one, the number one podcast in the world, a fantasy baseball podcast. Serial, S-town. We might...
Starting point is 00:08:32 All of them down. Improve the whole sports popularity. I don't know how I feel about S-Town. S-Town was good, but really... Just had no point. It went in like ten different directions. Yeah, I haven't listened to it. Oh, okay. I won't get into it.
Starting point is 00:08:45 I just know it's a thing. Scott traded Cody Bellinger. Scott, what did you give up for Cody Bellinger? Or what'd you get for Cody Bellinger? I gave up Cody Bellinger and Addison Russell because I was taking the guy's short stuff away. I was taking Francisco Lendor away. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:04 And a shallow league. So, you know, if I didn't trade Russell, I would have dropped Russell. It's basically Cody Bellinger straight up for Lendor. Chris Grade the Trade. You probably have to do that. I think it's like a B minus. Okay. All right.
Starting point is 00:09:19 I don't love it. Good job. I like it. I think B is fair? Yeah. That's fair. That's a big upgrade, shortstop. I don't expect to make unfair trades.
Starting point is 00:09:30 Oh, I do. It's worth noting I probably tried to, with five different owners, to get a pitcher, a high-end starting pitcher back for Bellinger, and they just weren't having it. People were holding so tight to their pitchers. I considered offering them straight up to Heath for Quato, but I figured Heath would reject it just on principle. So I went for a guy who showed some interest,
Starting point is 00:09:55 but didn't want to give up necessarily a great pitcher and talking had Lendor. That would fill a need for me because Addison Russell, like, you know, shallow league, I'm just not sure he's going to help me that much. Have you seen Lindor's stats over the last calendar year? Over the last calendar year? 365 days, 157 games.
Starting point is 00:10:17 I have not. He's kind of a jag. What are you talking about? Do you have any of a JAG this year? I'm just pointing out 271. batting average, 90 runs, 19 homers, 75 RBI, nine steals. That's good. Yeah, it's a lot more than jagged shortstop.
Starting point is 00:10:34 It's good. Is it? Nine steals? Only nine steals? That's surprising. Look, you gave it a B minus. What? I'm just pointing, look, don't shoot the messenger.
Starting point is 00:10:45 I'm not shooting the messenger. You cannot make me feel bad about this trade, no matter how hard you try. You know, it's, do you think Cody Bellinger is going to regress? Yes. Okay. Well, look, here's the thing. This is a points league that Scott pulled this trade off in. Counts, walks, strikeouts, doubles. And Lindor is the number six shortstop in points, number 11 in Rodo.
Starting point is 00:11:08 He's got 21 doubles. That's been a big strength for him this year. And good plate discipline as well. But only three steals all year for Francisco Lindor. That's weird. Now, remember, a lot fewer singles this year because of all the doubles. And the home runs. And the home runs.
Starting point is 00:11:21 All right, let's move on. Here's a grade the trade teaser. I want to read a lot of grade the trade. trades later in the show. But here's a teaser. And I'm going to tell you after this what's coming up on today's show. Spike Harris, give Travis Shaw get Eric Thames. Grade the trade. Give Travis Shaw, get Eric Thames. Now, Shaw, of course, is third base and first base eligible, but if you just look at first base, Shaw's a top eight first baseman. Thames is 12th and points, 14th, and Roto. So give it a grade. You give up Shaw, you get Thames. I give it a B-minus.
Starting point is 00:11:57 Yeah, I was thinking like a C plus, which is basically a B minus. Okay, again, not disagreeing here. I bring stuff up doesn't mean I disagree. Tell me why, at this point, halfway through the season, why is Shaw not better than Eric Thames in your ranking? Well, we both probably need to move Shaw above Thames in our rankings if we're thinking this is a good trade for the guy getting Shaw. No, no, no, the guy's getting Thames.
Starting point is 00:12:24 I was answering to getting things. Yeah, I think it's a C-minus. I'd rather have Thames than Shaw. I think it's the better overall package, certainly better plate discipline, and I think there's more raw power there. I think maybe Shaw just recently passed Thames and is outscoring him now in points leagues,
Starting point is 00:12:44 but that's, you know, with Thames slumping to the point that he's betting like 245. Now that's going to correct it. I think Shaw has some regression coming, especially with the power numbers. One thing that we liked, And a big part of why he liked him as a sleeper slash breakout coming into the season was he hit a ton of fly balls. That's a very good thing when you're at Miller Park.
Starting point is 00:13:07 His fly ball rate's down to 35% from 45% last season. Now, the home run rate has still held strong, but I don't know how long he can sustain a 22% home run to fly ball ratio. And, you know, if he had 12 home runs right now, we'd probably look at Travis Shaw a lot differently. All right. So, Chris, you're going to take Shaw over Thames, though, and Scott's going to take Thames over Shaw. I'm probably going to move Shaw just a little bit ahead. All right. Would you take either of them over Jake Lamb?
Starting point is 00:13:37 I think I'd still rather have Lamb. Yeah, maybe Thames in a Points League, but that's a close call. And certainly, I'd rather have lamb in categories. Tuesdays standouts. All right, I'm just going to say Curtis Granderson. He's got the second highest OBP in baseball in the month of June. It's 451. he has four home runs in his last six games.
Starting point is 00:13:58 He is on fire, and Curtis Granderson is 28% owned. Anybody want to pick him up? I think he has like a 900 OPS since May 1st or something. Since May 1st, wow. I think, let me check that. He had a 391 OPS on May 1st. Boy, that's terrible. And he's up to 791 for the season, so he's probably...
Starting point is 00:14:22 Well, are you interested, Chris? He's got a thousand OPS since he's. May 1st. Well, are you picking them up? Answer the question. Nah. You and your... Oh, so you offer this, like, really optimistic sounding fast, and then you're like... He's almost certainly going to get traded soon, right? Within the next month. There's no guarantee. Well, they're not going to trade you on a cesspitus. I mean, if they get... I don't know how much value he holds, really. I would assume they're going to trade Jay Bruce. I would assume they're going to trade Curtis Granderson. CESBIT isn't comfortable going to be there for the long run.
Starting point is 00:15:01 And there's no guarantee Granderson gets moved into an everyday role, but in a five outfit or league, Granderson should be owned at this point, yeah. I don't know. I mean, I'd rather have Trey Mancini than him. I'd rather have Tommy Fam than him. I'd rather have Tommy Fam. I'm not sure about Trey Mancine.
Starting point is 00:15:16 I'd rather have, yeah, I think he might still be just outside of it. Just, you know, outfield being so deep. Do you want to know who a top 10 outfielder over the last 28 days is that is owned in fewer leagues, I believe, than Curtis Grannerson? Grannerson's, oh, they're about the same. About 28, 30 percent owned. I would very much like to know. Michael Taylor, who stole two bases yesterday. We got actually a good email about Michael Taylor, I'm trying to find out who sent it.
Starting point is 00:15:43 But in the meantime, Michael Taylor, do you guys think he is underowned? He stole two more bases yesterday. Yeah, he's 31% own, number 10 in points, number 8 in Roto over the last 28 days with a 304 batting average, seven homers, six steals, three walks, 27 strikeouts. What do you think? Taylor or Granderson? Taylor, because stolen bases are harder to come by. Yeah, and categories league, maybe Granderson in points, but, you know, points are usually smaller lineups and you want to have to reach that far. I don't have a lot of confidence in Taylor sustaining this anywhere close to this really. Babib's like 380.
Starting point is 00:16:23 376, yeah. Not a particularly high line drive rate or anything like that. So he's still a little too wild to sustain a fantasy relevant pace, I think. And the National stole seven bases off of Jake Ariety yesterday, I think. I think? Yes, they did. Myel Montero had some pretty fiery quotes after the game, basically blaming Jake Arietta for all of the stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:16:52 Are you talking about quote of the day number two, which is, quote, it really sucked because the stolen bases go on me. But when you really look at it, the pitcher doesn't give me any time. So yeah, Mickey can't throw anyone out, but my pitchers don't hold anyone on. Wow.
Starting point is 00:17:06 Team player. Yeah. Oh, wow. He hasn't had a single caught stealing yet. 31 for 31. That's amazing. Wow. I'm worried about his livelihood.
Starting point is 00:17:16 But it is the pitcher's fault, too. Except Montaro doesn't catch John Lester, so that's not an excuse. John Lester picks someone off like two weeks ago. Did you guys see that? I did. I saw somebody tweet out a stat based on this quote. It was a guy by the name of Al. Melkeyer.
Starting point is 00:17:34 No. No, I was right. So there were seven stolen bases off Arenda and Montero yesterday over his previous 15 starts, Areeta had eight stolen bases off him. So seven yesterday versus eight in the previous 15. And part of that, Michael Taylor and Trey Turner are really fast. Yes. Yeah. Turner stole four bases.
Starting point is 00:17:58 Taylor stole two. And they talked about it after the game. They were like, he's slow to the plate. We went on him. And that brings us to Wuriometer Wednesday, which is headlined by Jake Arietta. But let me give you some of the segments that we have coming up. We have Worryometer Wednesday. We'll talk about the bullpen with Colomé, Cody Allen, Senwano.
Starting point is 00:18:14 struggling yesterday. We have two top five picks who have much better plate discipline this year and worse results. We'll give you the injuries, news, and notes. I do want to talk about what has worked and what hasn't worked so far this year in terms of strategy, in terms of draft. A lot of fringy starting pitchers like Alex Cobb, Mike Fires, Tyson Ross, Jeff Hoffman. Interesting, relevant players, we'll talk about them. Jack Peterson's been crushing it from the DL. And I have a segment in here
Starting point is 00:18:44 called Fun with FanGraphs. Chris, are you excited for Fun with FanGraphs? Well, if you want to get... More like Fun Graphs. If you want to get to Fun Graphs, we got to pick up the pace. Let's do it.
Starting point is 00:18:58 Worryometer Wednesday. I'm just going to give you four pitchers. And instead of going each one by one, you tell me if you are worried long term about any of these four pitchers, some were good, some were bad, yesterday. Jake Arietta, five swinging,
Starting point is 00:19:12 strikes yesterday. Terrible start. 4607 ERA, 136 whip, and only two starts of more than six innings this year. Jake Areietta. Justin Verlander, struggled in the first inning, had some terrible luck, and then he shut down the royals over the next six innings and ended up with a pretty good start. That's Verlander. Jose Cantana, four walks, but did not give up a run. Only two hits against the Yankees yesterday, and he's been good lately. And James Paxton, I guess a step in the right direction, but a little disappointing. Three runs, three walks and seven innings against the Phillies. Areetta Verlander, Kintana, Paxton, here on Worryometer Wednesday, who are you worried about?
Starting point is 00:19:51 I mean, I guess you have to be most worried about Jake Garietta. I mean, obviously he was the worst yesterday, but it's been the worst all season. Yeah, yeah, and we keep thinking, okay, the turnaround's going to happen, and it seems like he's gotten worse. Even though last start was good in terms of run prevention, the one before this one, he had like three swings he had like three strikeouts in it and it was one of his worst velocity starts of the season so the velocity's been down all year but i've been giving him a pass for it because the strikeout rate was so good it seems like the last couple starts that's kind of gone away
Starting point is 00:20:29 too and the ground ball rate hasn't come back yeah it's he's i've been worrisome i've been very much on the not worried about jayereda side of things and i at the at some point I have to take the evidence in front of me, which is that he's been bad for about a year now. And there aren't that many promising signs. You know, his peripherals suggest that he's a high three's low fours guy, uh, 417 FIPP, 391 X FIP, 401 Sierra. I'm going to be moving him outside of my top 10. That's really not a huge deal. I'm not going to move him outside of my top 20. I might be. I'm alive at this point. Yeah, like are you going Carrasco or Arieta? Carrasco
Starting point is 00:21:12 At this point Although he's had his own Ups and Downs Well how many of the other guys On the Wariometer list Verlander, Kintana, Paxton Would you rank ahead of Arietta? Definitely Verlander and Paxton
Starting point is 00:21:24 Yeah I would still have Arieta ahead of Kintana Just because Kentana doesn't have the upside Arieta does But Yeah for now I think I think I'll stick with that
Starting point is 00:21:34 I mean But Kintana's We saw Justin Verlander Turn on a dime last year and you know I've I've made the mistaken up over the years of burying a really good player prematurely so I don't want to completely bury Arieta but I am as discouraged as I've ever been and it's very it's a very good sign for both Verlander and Cantana that they're starting to turn it around because they were two of the guys who were struggling early on like Areietta when he was struggling or Arieta as he is struggling we've been like well control's still not great, ground ball rates way down, you have an explanation for it. Verlander and Katana, you didn't really have an explanation
Starting point is 00:22:19 for why they weren't getting good results. And so it's good to see that keeping the faith appears to be paying off. Okay. And with Verlander, I mean, you look at his last start. His last start was three runs in five and two-thirds, but I think he had a no-hitter going into the sixth. He had 11 strikeouts, and then I believe his bullpen let him down. So I think it's too encouraging starts in a row, at least for Verlander.
Starting point is 00:22:43 And all right, we'll move on from Moriometer Wednesday. Let's go to the bullpen and see if you're worried about any of these guys. You tell me, are you worried about any of them, first of all, losing their job as closer? Alex Colomé, Cody Allen, Senuano. Alan, I guess, might be the most concerning. This wasn't really a disastrous appearance. He just allowed a home run. But him introducing the idea of the mixing in Andrew Miller in the ninth inning.
Starting point is 00:23:10 Miller's clearly the more effective reliever, and I could see that happening more, particularly if there's another, if Alan's responsible for another loss very shortly after this appearance. The thing about Colomé and O is there's not really anyone who could take their place. Colomé, first of all, I don't think deserves to have his job lost. But O's been pretty unreliable all year, just not nearly as dominant as he was a year ago. but Trevor Rosenthal hasn't been very good and he has durability concerns anyway. There's just nobody else for the Cardinals to turn to. Mike Mathini basically said the same thing. And, you know, it's worth acknowledging that a year ago, it was Senwono who took Trevor Rosenthal's job because Trevor Rosenthal was so underwhelming.
Starting point is 00:23:57 Yeah. And I think we've also seen, I think Trevor Rosenthal's name has been mentioned in some trade rumors as well. So, you know, that's a potential outcome as well. Yeah. Rosenthal has been pitching poorly lately, and this was his chance to get that job back, because over his last appearances, O. has given up 12 hits, seven runs, and three homers. Coloméé is struggling lately. He's given up seven runs in his last three appearances.
Starting point is 00:24:22 His ERA has gone up from 195 to 357, so he was having a really great year. But less than a strikeout per inning and one fewer walk this year than last year in 21 and a third fewer innings for Colomé. So he's not the dominant. it, like he was having a really good year. He's ERA under two getting a lot of saves. They were a surprisingly solid team. But, uh, walk to strikeout ratio anyway, not nearly as good as it was last year for Colomay. It's true. Yeah. Don't, don't buy relievers after one year. I guess. Um, okay, very risky. I mean, he's still a top 15 reliever, right? Well, but both him and Sanguano basically have one good year as a reliever and have one good, one year
Starting point is 00:25:02 where they've been not nearly as good. segment, better plate discipline, worse results. And the two players I want to talk about are top five picks, Mookie Betz and Chris Bryant. Now, both of them are better in points leagues because they have better plate discipline. But let's look at Betts. Betts was the number one, I believe the number one hitter in fantasy last year. This year he is the number four outfielder in points leagues,
Starting point is 00:25:26 which still just kind of rubs me the wrong way. Just don't think he's been that good, but the points are the points. the number 13 outfielder in Roto slash Categories leagues. Betts is batting 269, 12 homers, 12 steals, 33 walks, 28 strikeouts, and 25 doubles, which helps in points, second most doubles in baseball behind Aeronado. So that's bets. Chris Bryant is the number four third baseman in points leagues, number seven in Roto, with a 259 batting average, 16 home runs, six steals.
Starting point is 00:25:59 53 walks, 70 strikeouts. Chris Bryant, his batting average is 33 points lower than it was last year, yet his on-base percentage is even better. K-rate's about the same walk rate is way up. The babbip is down for both of them. Now, here's the difference that I saw anyway, tell me, I'm sure you're looking at fan graphs now. Fun with fan graphs.
Starting point is 00:26:21 Moogie bets appears to be just like so unlucky. Everything seems to be the same, except his hard contact rate is actually up. but the ground ball ratio, all that stuff. It almost looks exactly the same, except the Babbup is way down. So to me, it looks like Bets is unlucky. Bryant's hard contact rate, 40% last year,
Starting point is 00:26:38 29% this year. So what do you make of better plate discipline, worse results for Mookie Betz and Chris Bryant? The one thing I'm looking at with Mookie Betts and he's become much more pool-heavy this season. pole-heavy this sheet? He loves to swim, that guy. And typically you're lighter in water.
Starting point is 00:27:03 Right. But you know what? He hasn't been waiting the 30 minutes after he's been eating. That's the problem. Yeah, cramps. There it is. Easy fix. And fan graphs, fun with fan graphs, they have a splits tool where you can look at how a hitter
Starting point is 00:27:16 is doing against the shift. And Mukie Betts is hitting 303 against the shift compared to 423 last season. I don't, he's being shifted about as often, so it's not like, you know, that's really a big concern. But that's one potential explanation. He's just, maybe he was a little lucky against the shift last year. Maybe he's been a little unlucky this season. Let me start over here. Bet's and Bryant, let's face it.
Starting point is 00:27:44 It's not like they've been bad, right? They've been fine. But they haven't been MVP caliber. Do you think, do you still see them as MVP caliber, bets and Bryant? Yes. Yes, and I think both are being hurt by the lineups around them as much as anything else. They are both top five outfielders for me, and I've never considered moving them out. And even with these numbers you pointed out, I'm not considering moving them out. But Chris Bryant's on pace for less than 70 RBI.
Starting point is 00:28:16 Wow. Wow. And both he and Betts scored 120 plus runs and drove in 100 last year. and they're both on pace for about 95 runs and Brian's on pace for fewer than 70 RBI which is crazy I'm going to I mean part of that Brian usually bat second
Starting point is 00:28:37 lead off for second but that's the lineup around them is not nearly because he was banning second most of the last season too yeah it was I'm going to predict that he his hard contact rate goes up going forward and also that he does finish with more than 70 RBI. Okay.
Starting point is 00:28:55 Like, it's just, like, I see it as, oh, man, he's gotten really burned on RBI before, and look how productive he still is. He's going to have, like, a 25 RBI month at some point. All right, hope so. Because I wanted Chris Bryant to be the best hitter of baseball this year, so I was kind of hoping for. And, all right, maybe we'll get in the second half. Let's do some news and notes.
Starting point is 00:29:15 And Starlin Castro is on the DL. He's hoping he can come back in 10 days, and Tyler Wade did not start yesterday. They came off the bench. Yasil Pueig gave the double middle finger last month or whatever that was a few weeks ago, and his suspension has been rescinded. But he does have a sore knee and a sore hamstring, and he sat yesterday, Yassil Pueek. Arizona shortstop, Nick Ahmed has a small fracture in his hand.
Starting point is 00:29:39 There's no rhyme or reason to the order of these news and notes, as you're going to see. They are just random. I forgot to order them. Hanley Ramirez sat again with a knee issue. He was hit by a pitch on the knee on Sunday. John Gray is going to start at Arizona on Friday. Two questions about John Gray. He's 82% owned. One, is he underowned? Yes.
Starting point is 00:29:58 Two, will you start him at Arizona? No. No. Okay. That's John Gray, 82% owned. Tyler Anderson could miss about a month after knee surgery. Jonathan V.R. and Ryan Braun returned for the Brewers. VR sat. Ernan Perez sat. So you had Zamingo Santana, you had Keon Broxton, you had Braun in the outfield. You had Sogarde and Arcia in the middle infield and Sean Thames. So, yeah, VR. I can see people dropping him soon.
Starting point is 00:30:25 Let's see how that plays out. Corey Seeger was available to pinch hit yesterday. Bud Black, Bud Black said he would not be, he would be surprised if David Doll played this season, which is good. But it also seems to indicate that David Doll is nowhere near returning. He would be surprised if he did play or didn't play? Sorry, if he didn't play. Okay, yeah. But still.
Starting point is 00:30:47 How the hell did this happen? Like, what is going? This was like a, oh, well, maybe he'll miss a couple of weeks in spring. Maybe he'll miss the first week of the season. It's basically July. I know there's three days left in the month, but it's basically July. Yeah. And he hasn't even, like, has he even started swinging a bat?
Starting point is 00:31:10 Wait, I need to talk about something. Thank you for reminding me. Scott, first of all, you just ranked your top 30 DL stashes. Is David Dahl on there? No, but he didn't miss it. by much. Okay. 30's a lot, though. Two, programming update.
Starting point is 00:31:27 Next week is July 4th. I was really in a sour mood until just now, when I just reminded myself and everybody, we have Monday and Tuesday off next week. Oh my God. I got to be like Santa Claus yesterday, telling everybody in our department that we're off Monday and Tuesday next week.
Starting point is 00:31:46 I knew we were off Tuesday. I know we're off Monday. So what we're going to do, I think, is a mailbag on Friday. and air that on Monday, and we will not have a show on Tuesday. I do apologize, but enjoy the fireworks. Quick thing there, so just programming update. Expect a mailbag on Monday.
Starting point is 00:32:02 Back to the news and notes. DJ LeMayhew left with a groin cramp. Colorado called up Mike Tocman, Touchman, Tockeman. I would guess Toceman. Does anybody care? No. No. I don't think so.
Starting point is 00:32:18 I shouldn't have even pronounced his name. Some lineup notes. How about this from your outfield for the NDA? for the Rangers yesterday. Delano DeShields, Shinsu Chu, Nomar Mazzara, and Mike Napoli. They all went either O for three or O for four with three strikeouts, and DeShields was caught stealing, so good for them. Texas Cashor Robinson Chorino's hit his 11th home run, which is just not good for Jonathan Luchroy, because Chirinos is it in home runs.
Starting point is 00:32:42 Still not taking that trade. I'm just saying, they're probably going to cut Luchroy, Scott. They're going to DFA him soon. Oh, wow. That would probably be good. Yeah, maybe. Because then he'd pick up the team that actually wanted to play him every day. Carlos Santana batted seventh in the Indians order, the lowest he's batted this year,
Starting point is 00:33:00 although he'd recently been batting six a lot. Manuel Margot came off to D.L. He led off for the Padres. Jose Porella batted second. Anyone want Manuel Margo? No, that's probably like Curtis Granderson range pick up, maybe even lower. I do want to mention Carlos Santana following up our conversation from last week. he is now, which was points league based.
Starting point is 00:33:24 It was a points league based discussion, by the way. He is now outscored Miguel Sanoe this year. Carlos Santana has. Yeah, well, that doesn't surprise me. And Muno has been cold recently, but it's all about the walks and the strikeouts. Walks are important, Adam. They are, but again, a lot of people don't play in those leagues, and he was the 15th, he was the number 15 first baseman when we had that conversation.
Starting point is 00:33:49 I think that's disappointing. Number 15 at first basement is still probably a must start in a 12-team league. Not if I could help it, I guess, but I couldn't. Cota Glover has not started throwing. Carlos Gomez sat with the back issue. Austin Jackson is out three to four weeks. Should we talk about Lonnie Chisunhall? He's having a nice year, just not playing that much.
Starting point is 00:34:12 He was actually in the top 10 sleeper hitters for this week because the Indians had an eight-game schedule, and at least six of those games, I think, were supposed. supposed to be against right-handed pitchers. He pretty much sits against every left-hander, but he's slugging like 6.50 and just a monster against right-handers. Definitely somebody that you could... Somebody who's worth picking up and dropping as the matchups dictate. Okay.
Starting point is 00:34:38 Lonnie Chis-in-all. Robert Gisellman's about to go on the D.L. with a hamstring injury. Andrew McCutcheon's batting third now, and he hit a game-tying double in the ninth inning. Blake Snell is going to start today against the pirate. Start or sit Blake Snell. Against the pie. I'll sit him.
Starting point is 00:34:53 I want to see. I don't trust him yet. It's probably a better safe than sorry situation, but it wouldn't surprise me against the pirates. He was good in the miners. He had like, you know, six innings, one run, 11Ks. Like, pick him up now just in case that happens. And Danny Duffy will make his second rehab start Thursday. And Victor Martinez is going to come off the DL today.
Starting point is 00:35:16 And let's get back to the fun stuff. And look, it's a good time. a year, right? Whoever invented summer was obviously a sports fan. They didn't even try to hide it. They gave it playoff hockey, playoff basketball, the opening of both soccer and baseball. It's a clear display of favoritism, and the other seasons didn't stand a chance. So with three months of clutch playoff drama and the awakening of new seasons, it's clearly the work of a sports fan. Instead of summer, they may as well have called it sports season. In fact, if Buffalo Wildlings, they do call it sports season. Don't ever call it summer. That's not what it is. It's
Starting point is 00:35:48 sports season. They're just waiting on the legal change. Buffalo Wild Wings, Wings, Beer, Sports. Let's talk about, oh, gosh, I'm so conflicted. I want to get through these pitchers first, all right? Brinjy starting pitchers. Then we're going to talk strategy a little bit and kind of look at our seasons. Let's cut this list in half. Start with Dan Strelie.
Starting point is 00:36:11 So these are the guys who are more owned. Dan Strelie, another, you know, good start. Not great, but good start. Aaron Nola, two really good starts in a row. For the first time this season, two straight quality starts for Aaron Nola. Mike Fires, actually, he was pitching pretty well against Oakland, gave up one run through five innings, then he loaded the bases, then he left, and then James Hoyt came in and gave up a grand slam to Ryan Healy.
Starting point is 00:36:36 But one walk, seven strikeouts for Fires, so he continues a pretty good run. All right, we're not giving Mike Fires credit for the bullpen blowing a lead against Oakland. All right, it's Mike Fier. He deserves those runs. Five innings one run? We're not doing this like Fires thing. I'm not doing this like Fires thing. I mean, it was just...
Starting point is 00:36:54 I refuse. It just sounded like he was a victim of circumstance in this. His curveball's not spinning and he's never winning guys. Come on. I think he's a great choice right now. Strali, Nola, Fires. Hang on. I don't think Fires has figured something out and become somebody you can rely on all season.
Starting point is 00:37:12 But we've seen a couple times in his career. He'll pull off the stretch of like a dozen starts where he's amazing. because he's just spotting his pitches so well. Okay, so Strayley, Nola, Fires, and Alex Cobb. These guys are owned in more than 80% of leaks, so you're not really getting them, but do you believe in them? Strelie, Nola, fires, and Cobb?
Starting point is 00:37:31 I believe in Strayley the most. I think he should probably be owned everywhere now. Good strikeout rate for him, too, this year. Continuing his, like, he's one of those guys that you can look at and say, well, the Babbip's low. The Babbip's always low. He's Marco Estrada, Extreme. fly ball pitcher in a big park in a way that doesn't give up.
Starting point is 00:37:51 Getting strikeups right now. I need to give a split, though, for Dan Straeli. He has a 231 ERA and four home runs at home, and he has a 493 ERA, seven home runs on the road. I definitely trust him more at home. Yeah, so just keep that in mind. But Dan Strelie, Aaron Nola, Mike fires, Alex Cobb. Scott, you said you trust Strali the most. Who else?
Starting point is 00:38:08 Yes. I would trust Maeda, but it doesn't sound like the Dodgers are ready to trust in him entirely, yet they didn't. Dave Robert said he wasn't sure if he was going to make another start. Obviously, Brandon McCarthy's taking his turn on the DL, because they like to cycle every one of their pitchers through that 10-day thing. So it's not clear if his next outing is going to be another like three-inning bullpen appearance or if he's... Now, he'll make another start. He'll make at least one more start.
Starting point is 00:38:37 That's what I read. I would say, same place. Same place. AP recap. I would say of this group, Australian Nola should probably be. close to 100% owned. Nola has much more upside than Straeli. He's a pitcher that I really still can't figure out, but when he's on, he's clearly
Starting point is 00:38:57 very good. And he's been on the last two days, two starts. Fires, no. Like Scott said, he goes through these stretches where he's really good and can be useful, but at the first sign of trouble, I'm getting rid of him. He gives up too many homers. and Alex Cobb pitching really well lately could be the biggest beneficiary on the race staff
Starting point is 00:39:22 of the Adani Hedchavaria trade Hedgevaria made a couple of nice plays yesterday actually drove in two runs yesterday too which is shocking How many swinging strikes did Well who had more Did Adani Hachavaria have more RBI's than Alex Cobb swinging strikes yesterday
Starting point is 00:39:39 That's your trivia question Yeah I don't know about Cobb's performance yesterday because he threw only three changeups. He had two swinging strikes. But he carried no hitter into the seventh. Yeah. The change-ups is best pitch. He's been looking for it all year.
Starting point is 00:39:54 It looks like he went back to it last start, and then he went away from it again in this start. So I don't know. Maybe he just didn't need it. I mean, he pitched great. Yeah, I'm not entirely encouraged. It's like a split change. Right.
Starting point is 00:40:05 And so that's something that you see a lot with pitchers who rely on their splitters is that just it's a feel pitch. Sometimes you don't have the feel for it. Kevin Gosman talked about it earlier in the season, how it's not a pitch that he likes to throw a lot early because he doesn't have the feel for it, and he can develop blisters. He actually has been throwing it more lately.
Starting point is 00:40:28 Who? And Gosman. Okay, yeah. And, you know, had one of his better starts yesterday, still fell short of a quality start. But somebody to keep an eye on. Very, very small baby steps. You guys just reminded me.
Starting point is 00:40:40 I totally forgot about that game. I didn't even look at the box score. I'm looking at it now. Oh, Joe Beagini. We can drop Joe Beagini, right? Yes. Okay. All right, so Scott, do you have an Uncle Charlie by any chance?
Starting point is 00:40:57 No, I do not. Because you threw us a big curveball earlier when you started talking about Kenta Maeda. Oh, yeah. It wasn't part of the group. So let's go to the next group. Jeff Hoffman, Kentimaeata, Tyson Ross, good start. Mike Clevenger, not a bad pitcher at Mike. Clevenger. And Yolisha Seen, 183 ERA at home. So Hoffman, oh, did I say Gera? Hoffman Jr. Gera,
Starting point is 00:41:22 Kenta Maeda, Tyson, Ross, Mike Clevenger, Yolisha Seen. Okay, so Ross's velocity is still down like two to three miles per hour. Very skeptical of that. Gera's velocities way down from last year and he has like a one-to-one strikeout to walk ratio. I don't know why we're still bothering with him. Yeah, he's been bad. Clevenger's, you know, kind of interesting in a low-end sort of way. But he's in a different class, I think, from like the Maidas and the Jeff Hoffman's. And that's... I think Tyson Ross...
Starting point is 00:41:57 Tyson Ross was really interesting yesterday because he just kind of... Just decided to just go full-out old man game. He threw 57 sliders. And it's the only pitch he got a swinging strike on yesterday. And I think that's a sign that he doesn't have the stuff yet. He doesn't trust the fastball. He doesn't trust any of his secondary pitches. And, you know, I think it's something you can get away with doing.
Starting point is 00:42:26 He does have a very good slider. That's something that runs in the Ross family. But it doesn't give me a lot of hope for sustainability. Jeff Hoffman's clearly the most interesting pitcher in this group. You start Jeff Hoffman on the road. You don't start him at home. He's been mostly on the road so far, and he got crushed at home last time.
Starting point is 00:42:46 But this was a two-star week for Hoffman, and they were both on the road. So we'll see what happens. He's looking at John Grayish. We'll see what happens. He's got at Arizona this weekend. If you're in a daily league, you're going to trust Hoffman at Arizona.
Starting point is 00:42:56 They're the team that crushed him in Corse Field last week. I'd probably stay away, but it's not the worst idea. Okay. So what's worked, what hasn't worked for you guys this year? I specifically want to talk about your pitching strategies. And Chris, I want you to leave the way because you were very different than me and Scott with pitching.
Starting point is 00:43:22 And like I have two teams that I could talk about in this conversation. And one of them is the 24-0 team, which will not be 24-0 after this week. Probably 24-2. But best pitching that I have and invested in pitching and it worked. And then there's my Roto League. I think I'm in sixth place, something like that. pretty close to like fourth place but not having a great year and I invested a lot in pitching in that league and I invested in John Lester who's been okay I invested in Garrett Cole who's been okay
Starting point is 00:43:49 I invested in Cole hamels and that kind of speaks to Chris's argument like pitchers are fickle and tricky and if you get the right ones it's great I know but I thought I had the right ones you know so here's here's the weird thing for me my best league is the one where I invested in Justin Verlander, Noah Cindergard, and Danny Duff. So I had three of my top 23 or 24 pitchers
Starting point is 00:44:17 coming into the season. And I've pretty much gotten very little from those three. But my pitching is really good in that league because I've been able to pick up Drew Pomeranz, Sean Maniah, Jeff Samarja, Louis Severino. These are guys that I picked up.
Starting point is 00:44:33 Those are all guys that I've got Jacob Furie on the, the bench. So those are us that I've been able to pick up on the waiver wire. And so, you know, the discussion a lot has turned to, well, you can find hitting on the waiver wire, Justin Smoke, Logan Morrison. And you can, definitely. But I feel like we tend to write off the pitchers on the waiver wire who can be very helpful as well. Sure. But you have a lot of teams. So I'm assuming you use this no, you know, weight on pitching strategy and mostly, mostly, leagues, has it worked out for you?
Starting point is 00:45:09 It's hit or miss. The ones where I've been successful are the ones where I've been the most active on waiver wire. And I think that's going to be true. That's going to be true. That's a big part of playing fantasy. Right. And that's the thing is that it, we talk about, well, this is the strategy to use. Look at my team. I invested in this guy, this guy, this guy, and it's worked out. Well, yeah. I mean, it depends on what starting point you're comfortable. The draft is always a starting point. You're putting together a foundation. And a lot of of your picks are going to miss. A lot of everybody's picks are going to miss. I actually looked at the top 40 hitters drafted this year. 18 of them have been busts or injured or something like it.
Starting point is 00:45:50 And about the same rate for the top 40 pitchers. Yeah. I mean, there are misses among pitchers and hitters. There have been, particularly recently with guys like Chase Anderson and Zach Godley, Sean Nukum, Faria, who you mentioned. There have been a few more quality fantasy options of burging on the waiver wire after we saw the early rush among hitters with guys like Aaron Judge and Conforto and Smoke, etc.
Starting point is 00:46:16 I still think and you know even the leagues where I've drafted some pitchers who have burned me, Rick Porcelo, you know, I drafted him in a bunch of leagues for Lander in a couple leagues,
Starting point is 00:46:30 Cindergarten a league. You know, I have some misses among the pitchers I spent on, but my hitting isn't struggling because there's just been such an abundance of it. And I feel like that's the state we're in in baseball right now where, yes, pitching is probably inherently a little riskier than hitting, but it's not enough to make up for the disparity and depth between the two, where outside of like 12 or 13 first-round caliber hitters,
Starting point is 00:47:04 There's a lot of interchangeability there. Yeah, I'm still on board with the, if I were going to do it again, I would probably put even more of a priority on pitching. Scott, I think that's that kind of what you were saying? Yeah, I think I'd even go further. You know, things could change in the second half, of course. If, you know, maybe the baseball changes again, they go with a higher scene one and homework go way down.
Starting point is 00:47:26 But a big thing is just like, what if we just had a handful of guys who were just marrages? That's what we're saying at the end of last year, right? And it's only gotten quote unquote worse. Right. But I'm talking specifically the guys who have produced like superstars. The Justin Smoke, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonzo, Justin Boar kind of guys. I think in this offensive environment, they're always going to be a couple dozen hitters who just completely catches by surprise like that. I don't think they've been superstars.
Starting point is 00:48:00 I hate to like nitpick. I mean, they're all on pace for 40 plus home runs and 100 plus RBI, right? If you look at where they rank in fantasy standings, they're not superstars. But smokes must start, clearly. Judge has been a boss. Judge looks like the MVP at the league, and he was less than 50% owned coming into the year, I'm pretty sure. Yeah. Yeah, I just, for me, it's maybe I would invest a little more in starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:48:34 I don't know. Like, I still look at it and I just, I can't get away from the inherent unreliability of starting pitchers and investing in those guys. And we can say that there's hitters who miss as well, but yeah, there is. The hitters who miss, to me, seem a little more obvious. Well, okay. Well, Chris, let me just say. So while I do get your point about starting pitching being unreliable, what I think we don't talk about enough is that. the reliable starting pitchers are so much better than the streaming starting pictures, I think,
Starting point is 00:49:11 anyway. And, okay, I guess you're great. The ones that are healthy and producing right now? 100%. This is a really bad year for pitching. I don't know that we'll see this again. Well, we were saying that last year, Adam. I guess.
Starting point is 00:49:26 That was a conversation around pitching last year. But look at how, I mean, but even still, like, the injuries and the Bumgarner injuries, the top ten's been really bad. I don't know. That's the thing with starting to disagree. I don't know. It's not just their performance is unreliable, although their performance is harder to predict, harder to predict than hitter performance. Yeah, but they just get hurt.
Starting point is 00:49:47 There's a bigger gap. They get hurt, but hitters and pitchers. I mean, you can, all the athletes get hurt, you know. Sure, but like, you can play through. Their body to the limits. You can play through more minor injuries as a position player than you can as a hitter. This may be technically true, but. it's small degrees where we actually
Starting point is 00:50:08 like numbers of hip high-end pitchers going down versus numbers of high-end hitters going down. There's a lot of both. And I feel like it's, again, going back to my point about building a foundation that you feel like puts you in the best position to then make upgrades off the waiver wire as the season plays out.
Starting point is 00:50:24 I think as things stand right now, unless something dramatically changes in the second half, my plan is to draft one of the clear, standouts among hitters in the first round the Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, you know, Nolan Aeronado types and then probably go starting pitcher two, three, four. Understanding
Starting point is 00:50:43 that two, each of those picks two three and four probably aren't going to work out. But, you know, if two of them do, I think I'm in a really good position. Yeah, I can't. I can't do that. Well, in a roto league, I don't think I'd do that, Scott, because I would I think at this point I would like to
Starting point is 00:51:00 prioritize deals a little bit more. I think maybe I would just tweak and say, I'd like to get a steals guy in the first two rounds, and then maybe go pitcher in like 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7, or something like that. I don't know that I go quite as all in on pitching as you would. But I didn't do enough with steals. You know who's not really a bust this season? Who? Trey Turner.
Starting point is 00:51:22 Not at all. Not anymore. He's got 32 steals now. He's only hitting like 280, but he's on a 75 steel pace now. I think that's another lesson to be learned is like, We did this research with Jonathan VR. He had, what do you have, 50-something steals last year? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:39 And based on the research I had done, a guy who stole that many bases, was pretty likely unless he got injured to steal 40 bases the following year. And I think he would if he played, you know, I think he'd be on that pace over 162 games. Or, like, you know, he's not going to get there because he's not going to play that many more games, I don't think. But, and he just got hurt. But, you know, when a guy like Machado, you see. the steals go up and down, whatever we don't know.
Starting point is 00:52:04 Guys who steal 20 bases, Zaneer Bogart, they could go up and down, you don't know. But the guys like Trey Turner, the elite base dealers, they're going to get their steals. So that's kind of a different subject, but we're talking about things we've learned this year. That was a pretty important takeaway for me. And in a Roto League, Scott, I think I'd have to try to get, try to get some steals in the first couple rounds before I went after pitching. Well, it makes it difficult in a Roto League as you start so many more hitters. I was thinking more of a head-to-head context, both points in categories, though. Sure, I think it also, it's very different.
Starting point is 00:52:38 Scott, you think in head-to-head more, I think. Like, that's your default. Yes. And my default's very much roto. And so I think that's part of the, is I feel much more confident in my strategy in roto. Yeah. But your strategy might be the better one in head-to-head for sure.
Starting point is 00:52:56 I mean, it still might be three of my first six. pitchers uh picks or pitchers in roto even even knowing how many hitter spots i have to fill and and you know when i say when i'm referring to the hitter spots traditional rhodo you start five outfielders you start an extra middle infielder extra corner infielder so there's 14 position players to nine pitchers you just go deeper into the hitter pool than you do in in either of the head-to-head formats so i i want to conclude with with this i want to read you my pitching staff and i mean you You can tell me why I'm doing so freaking badly. But my pitching staff in this Roto League.
Starting point is 00:53:35 What format? 12-team Roto. This is a two-catcher, auction league, a lot of hitters, nine pitcher spots. The only category, pitching category I'm doing well in is saves. I have Coda Glover currently on the deal. I have Edwin Diaz and Roberto Ozuna. But John Lester, Cole Hamels, Garrett Cole. I now have Alex Cobb, Jacob, Frum.
Starting point is 00:54:00 Ferrea. Oh, okay. I should probably mention Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada. We're the five pitchers that I spent the most on. So Hamels, Cole, Lester, Strowman, and Estrada. I have Alex Cobb. I have Jacob Ferreya. I have Sean Newcomb. I have Joe Ross on the bench. So I think I've done a good job. My pitching has been bad in that league. But I wouldn't be surprised if I go on a second half run. If Lester can really start dominating, if Hamels can just be good, that's the one I'm most concerned about.
Starting point is 00:54:29 if Cole can be a top 20-ish pitcher. Like, I think I might go on a second half run here, and I'd be interested to see if this strategy works, because I didn't invest that much in hitting, and I have arguably the best hitting in the league. Yeah, because you accidentally put it together. Yeah. Not accidentally, but you put it together on the fly.
Starting point is 00:54:48 What, hitting? Yeah. Well, my two highest players in this league was an auction league were Blackman and Bryant. And then I spent, you know, I didn't spend on Kersha, I didn't spend on Shurs or anyone like that, but I thought Lester, Hamels, and Cole would give me a great rotation, and I still think it's possible.
Starting point is 00:55:05 So let's see how the second half plays out, but I wouldn't be surprised if I structured a team like that again. And I'm just having a disappointing year. Stupid, stupid league. And the one thing that it's really important to avoid in this kind of ex post facto analysis is like, well, no simple. Guard got hurt. So clearly drafting a pitcher, like, you can
Starting point is 00:55:33 retrofit the data to make your point fit. And it's just, that's not good analysis. Like, you have to have a process and it, basing it on one year, I think, is just, it's a waste. And you can,
Starting point is 00:55:49 you can cherry pick anything you want and say, well, my team's working, so my process is working. And it's not necessarily the right way. Well, I'm saying my team isn't working right now, but I still believe in process. It's two years, right? Well, it's two years with the offensive explosion, but I'm talking about like the specific like, Noah Cindergoy are getting hurt. These pitchers got hurt, so the pitchers are unreliable. Like, for me, it's not so much that Noah Cindergarde and Madison
Starting point is 00:56:14 Baumgartner got hurt. It's that pitchers have over time roughly a 40% chance of going on the DL starting pitchers in any given season. And that number is only going up. So that's a big part Last year was an offensive explosion, right? But let me read you the top 10 pitchers last year. Max Scher, Rick Porcello, that was obviously a surprise. Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner, John Lester, Johnny Quato, Chris Sale, Corey Klober, David Price. Then you get to Kyle Hendricks.
Starting point is 00:56:45 I don't know. I was probably more than 10. But, I mean, those are the names. Those are familiar names. Then you go back in time. You'll see a lot of that. How many of them have been top 10 pitchers this year? Two?
Starting point is 00:56:57 Three? Scher-Kershaw on sale? But we could do the same exercise. Right, but that's what I'm saying, is that when we look at, well, last year's top 10 pitchers are guys that you know, and now those guys aren't. I do think there is a clear distinction between the haves and half-nots
Starting point is 00:57:11 at starting pitcher now where, you know, it being a three true outcomes game where so many hitters are capable of hitting the ball out of the park and strikeouts are, are so plentiful. I mean, they either hit him, run, strikeouts, or walk. The pitchers who miss a lot of bats and also pitch deep into games are not as plentiful. I mean, the pitchers who miss a lot of bats and pitch deep into games are so valuable relative to the ones who don't do either one of those things.
Starting point is 00:57:50 Don't do at least one of those two things. Does that make sense? Yes. Okay. It's hard to get it. No problem. We've got a lot to get to that we won't get to today, so we'll save it for tomorrow. Hopefully we'll get to fun with fan graphs.
Starting point is 00:58:03 It's actually a pretty interesting segment. Grade the trade. Man, I apologize to the listeners. I hope that was an interesting discussion because I didn't get to grade the trade or the emails. So you know what? Let's do it. Grade the trade from John. Kemp and Corey Knable for Will Myers.
Starting point is 00:58:18 Actually giving up Will Myers getting Kemp and Knable in a 16-team Dynasty League. Clos are tough in 16 teams. I will give that a B-minus. Okay. From Brian... Yeah, we haven't... What? Let me keep going, Chris.
Starting point is 00:58:35 Sorry. From Brian, Carasco and Braun for Kluber. Give up Carasco and Braun for Kluber. Oh, C-minus. C-minus, yeah. I don't think it's crazy in some circumstances, but it's a little worse than the Kluber side. Jimmy from Canada. Dynasty League, head-head categories.
Starting point is 00:58:57 Give up Beninted. in a dynasty league, get Price and Seeger? I'd have to know how... He says he has to know and Mastakis a third, so I don't know how valuable Kyle Seeger is in that instance. I mean, at face value, it seems like a great deal. It seems like a, you know, a minus kind of deal, but I don't know if Ben and Tendie's being kept for much cheaper than the other two.
Starting point is 00:59:23 I'll go to the B. Okay. Mitch Connor. Grade the trade, 14 team categories, two keepers for three years. Give up Nelson, Cruz, and Gene Cigar. This is interesting. Give up Cruz and Seguer.
Starting point is 00:59:37 Get Bellinger and Ian Desmond in a category league. Cruz and Cigura for Bellinger and Desmond. The only way this one makes sense is if Bellinger is so much cheaper than Nelson Cruz, and I would assume he is. But you're kind of hoping Cody Bellinger is Nelson Cruz for the next two years, right? Yeah, two years. I think we all think Gene Seguer is a lot better than Ian Desmond. Yeah, so you don't like it?
Starting point is 01:00:02 Because of the position he plays, yeah. So I, with what we know right now, I think it's probably a D. But if there's a giant gap between Nelson Cruz and Cody Bellinger's keeper value, then it obviously swings the other way. All right, this is Christian from St. Louis. Give up Paxton and Maven. Paxton and Maven. Get Chris Davis with a K.
Starting point is 01:00:26 Oh, I suspect this offer was made prior to last night's start for Paxton, which was a very encouraging one. It wouldn't have made sense even then, though, that this might be an F. I think he needed power. I think I deleted that from the email, so he's getting Kris Davis for Paxton. Power should be easy to come by. Power is the easiest thing to come by. You're giving up the two hardest things to come by, starting pitching a stolen bases. All right, 12-team categories league.
Starting point is 01:00:56 is a bench player, so this is from Matthew from California. Give up Chris Bryant, Annie and Desmond. Get Corey Klobber. I don't know why you have to give up Desmond with Bryant. That seems like Brian for Kluber straight up is probably close to a C. I could see in this environment giving that an
Starting point is 01:01:18 even C but you throw Desmond in. I didn't think you lose this. It's a D plus like Chris said. Dan and Toronto. Rebuilding Keeper League Give up Goldschmidt, get Miguel Senzel or Brendan Rogers, and a first round pick at next year's draft. Give up Goldschmidt. I don't know how to rate prospects without knowing the full,
Starting point is 01:01:43 all the rules of the league. I mean, it looks, trading Goldschmidt, I feel like you need more than prospects in return in most dynasty leagues, but I just don't know the economics of this league, so it's hard to say. It looks bad at face value. Brandon gives up Nelson Cruz, gets David Price. Wants to know if Price will be an ace again. Brandon, greatest trade.
Starting point is 01:02:06 Cruz for Price. I think that's a D. David Price is too risky. Nelson Cruz is too much of a sure thing. I'll give it a C. I need the pitching more in most cases. All righty. Thank you, Chris.
Starting point is 01:02:18 Thank you, Scott. Thank you listeners. And my apologies for not getting to more stuff. Last thing I want to say is that Carlos Martinez is awesome. He was supposed to be pitching to contact more of the C. That was the preseason report, and he is striking out everybody, and I think he's a top eight pitcher. So how about that? We'll talk to you tomorrow here on Fantasy Baseball today.

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