Fantasy Baseball Today - 06/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Turner Replacements, JAG Alert, Dropometer

Episode Date: June 30, 2017

Cheer up, Trea Turner owners! We've got some replacements for you (2:20) both on waivers and via trade ... So much from yesterday including Brad Peacock vs. Lance Lynn (11:50), Randall Grichuk vs. Joc Pederson (20:30), Jonathan Villar's big night (25:00) and a bold prediction about closers (27:15) ... Two-start pitchers for Week 14 at the end of the show, but first we wonder if Michael Brantley is a JAG (37:05) and if Mitch Haniger and other highly-owned players should be dropped (46:50) ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

And that's a real 2017, Kokebo Friday, Heat Cummings. Cocoa Fridays are the best Fridays. Everything's wonderful as long as you're out of the trade turner owner. Ah, man, of course we will start the show with that. And you're going to have to make some trades if you're the trade Turner owner. And remember, sports trades are scary. One person can be replaced by another. Exchange for money or giving away for a hypothetical future person.

And once they leave your team, you can't like them anymore, even if you have their jersey. which you can't wear anymore, except at B-dubs. They won't judge, but others might. Buffalo Wild Wings, Wings, beer, sports. And Scott White is in the house? He's making a ruckus, eventually getting to the microphone, throwing furniture around the room. Adam, I want you to hear the sacrifice I'm making

to be here right this very moment. I thought he was going to say the sacrifice I'm making here to be here on time, and I was going to question that. I'm going to be treating my left hand as if the... It's radioactive this entire show because I was driving to work and I looked down by my feet and there's what looks like a leaf there. Uh-oh. So, you know, I don't want a leaf in my car. I pick it up to throw it out the door.

I find it's not a leaf. It's a slimy orange peel from when I was standing next to the dumpster throwing out the trash. Oh, not your orange peel. So my hand is covered in slimy orange peel from God knows where rubbing up. against God knows what, and I'm just going to have to sit like that for the entire show. Well, I have good. That's, Tara, that's disgusting. I have good news, though.

Now, I've said this before somewhat recently, but I reviewed the notes that I've put together. I know I'm going to bring my A-game. If you guys bring your A-game, this has the potential to be our best show ever. I truly believe that. Well, yesterday was our best show ever, and the goal today is to be better. Absolutely. So let's get started with Trey Turer. who broke his wrist.

And if Freddie Freeman comes back next week, it would be about seven weeks. If he comes back after the All-Star break, it would be about two months. And this could be worse. We don't really have a timetable. So first question, do you drop Trey Turner? Nope. Okay. Yeah, no.

It's a funny combination of words. Yeah, no. I don't drop Trey Turner. Because we don't have a timetable, first of all. And even if it is a head-to-head league where your playoffs start fairly early, you know, somebody in your league is going to value him. It's a non-displaced fracture. I doubt we're talking about surgery.

He actually stayed in the game after the fracture to play defense. He probably will miss at least four weeks, I would guess, closer to six. But I don't know that we're talking two-plus month absence. Oh, well, that's okay. Well, it was supposed to be. That's more optimistic. Yeah, it's pretty optimistic. It's supposed to be 10 months for Freeman, and he's coming back a little bit earlier.

So, 10 weeks. Yeah, 10 weeks. But he had surgery. And, you know, I can't say for sure that we won't hear Trey Turner is getting surgery at some point later today. But just based on the evidence we have so far, I would guess he doesn't. All right. So don't drop him. Now, second question, what the hell do we do if we're the Trey Turner owner?

Heath, give me some Trey Turner advice. Well, like, I agree 100% that you don't drop him. You also have to look at this, I think, going with the expectation that you're not going to be able to use straight Turner anymore. Because he may come back in six weeks, and that would be great. But you need to prepare for the worst. And, of course, the worst of that is that the shortstop is awful. It's not deep. And he was doing almost everything that we hoped he'd do over the last month.

So your team is getting much worse. Yeah. Now, okay, I can give you names to add. Do you think it's smarter to try to trade for someone? I mean, I think the first name that stands out to me is Jose Parraza at 72%. And not because he can come anywhere close to Trey Turner's production, but maybe he can at least replace the one thing that Turner is consistently given us, which is steals. Yeah. Or not Perez. And leagues that where you don't necessarily have to, where you don't necessarily have to replace that. one category. And look,

Trey Turner, he had more than 30 steals, and I think there's only four players with more than 20 in baseball right now. So probably no one is going to help you nearly as much in that category as Trey Turner was anyway. So if you're just looking for all-around production, Franklin Beretto's still less than 50% owned.

So is Ahmed Rosario, who we expect to be up soon, if not right now. Marcus Simeon, who was among the leaders at the position at home runs last year, at 27. I'm not so sure he would. wasn't the leader. I guess Machado would have had more.

But he's on a rehab assignment. He should be back within the next week or so, and he's only about 30% owned. So Marcus Simeon is a good option. Does that mean that Franklin Barreto is going down, by the way? And Barreto's been pretty bad since Home Ring in his first game. I think there's been two good games and three bad games. I don't know. I think it's most likely.

There's a chance. There's a chance he gets sent down. Yeah, he's on the dropometer today, Franklin Barreto. But the thing is, if he gets sit down, if he gets, sent down, you know, as soon as Jed Lowry gets traded, which will be before the end of July, he'll be back up. Okay. All right, so Barreto, Rosario, does it make sense

that maybe try to trade for Eduardo Nunez if you need steals and hope he gets something? Yeah, yeah, I think that makes sense. He could come at a discount since he's on the DL. Jonathan VR could. I mean, it doesn't help that he homered twice yesterday, but he could come at a discount. I heard some

where he had been dropped already, and that would be a great choice. Obviously, not as high probability as trade Turner, but capable in theory of providing about the same production. And, you know, Mani Machado. I got a lot of tweets last night about should I make this trade that somebody's offering me for Mani Machado. And normally they were having to give up a pretty good player. But given that I think we all still have a great deal of confidence in Mani Machado

turning things around and performing like a first rounder still, it's not. It's not a wild idea. And if you don't even have to give up a first-round caliber hitter for him, it's an even better idea. Sure. Yeah, Machado was one of Chris's by low candidates. It was yours, I'm sorry. It was Chris's. It was Chris's, I think, but we all agree.

We're all there, and, you know, steals or no steals. And you might want to overpay at this point. If you're the trade Turner owner, it's so hard to replace shortstop. You overpay for Mani Machado if you have to. I mean, hopefully you don't have to because he's been so bad. But just one other guy that I want to mention here is Angleton Simmons, who you can't buy low on, but do you believe in Angleton Simmons, and especially if you need the steals,

and would you then consider, you know, buying high on Angleton Simmons? Because it's quite possible that his owner doesn't really believe in Simmons. I think Scott's probably going to believe more in Simmons than I do. I think he's definitely made a leap from someone that was unplayable in fantasy to someone that's more of a replacement-level shortstop,

but I'm probably not going to buy high on a guy that I think is a replacement-level shortstop. Yeah, I mean, it depends what you'd be giving. If you'd be giving up, you know, a player who you're on the fence about just not dropping. I mean, the thing about Andrewton Simmons is because he was, he recently entered the mixed league discussion, it seems plausible that he's someone you could obtain in a trade because, you know, obviously if you're trading for a shortstop, if somebody only has one shortstop, they're probably not giving up their shortstop, you know. So it would have to be a secondary shortstop for somebody.

and Simmons seems like he could fall into that category. I got one more name, and he was so bad for so long that his season-long numbers still look atrocious. But Jose Reyes, over the last basically two weeks, has about a 900 OPS, 872 OPS. He's not stealing bases, but he's at least started hitting again, and he's like 25% of it. As Drupal Cabrera's, I think, been even a little hotter. And he had a great second half last year. Orlando Arcia's red hot right now. He's batting almost 280 all of a sudden.

Wow. So there's, you know, they're not Trey Turner. But there are options you don't just have to mail it in. The nice thing about replacement level being so low at shortstop is there's a lot of guys that can be not very good. Like a lot of your opponent's shortstop? What are you? No, I'm saying it's pretty hard to find a replacement level, maybe first baseman, because that production for a top 12 first baseman is really, really good.

Oh. Shortstops are kind of bad anyway. Okay. Well, yeah, so I just want to wrap it up with this. Trey Turner has stolen 22 bases in the month of June. That is insane. There's only one player out there that might be available in the shallowest of leagues that could get you Trey Turner's types of steals.

That would be Starling Marte. He is 79% only. owned. And, yeah, 10 team leagues, maybe you take a look and see if Marte is available, and he's not a shortstop, but at least you get some stolen bases. Chris Bryant's ankle feels better, but he may miss the weekend series. Actually, I guess Jose Paraza could give you a lot of steals, too. He's like 71% on, and he'd said him. The only concern I have about Parazana, I just want to say this real quick.

It came out yesterday that they said they are still, they still want to get Scooter Genet regular playing time, even when Zack Cozart comes back. I don't know who that means is out, but Parazzo would be the most likely candidate. All right, Chris Bryant might still end up on the DL for Brian, but it looks like it's not a long-term thing, at least, with his ankle. Mike Trout took batting practice. Bud Norris, potential closer, could be back this weekend. Robinson Chorinos was in the lineup for a second straight game, and this is a guy who's like 10% owned.

He's been a lot better than Jonathan Lou Croy, and we'll keep an eye on that. Danny Salazar is going to make a rehab start this weekend, and he's supposed to return as a starting pitcher. What is your level of interest in Daniel Salazar? He's right. They're around top 60 for me at starting pitcher, and, you know, if he has a brilliant start first time back, he'll probably move right into the top 40. So it's, I want to, you know, I want to want him to be unowned in any of my leagues right now. Right.

He should be owned. All right. Take a look for Danny Salazar. He's actually 77% owned, which is a little higher than I thought. All right, let's have some fun. Here's some fun stats. And coming up on the show, we'll, of course, talk about the two-star pitchers for Fantasy Week 14. We are going to make a bold prediction about relief pitchers.

We'll talk about the double dongs from yesterday. De Nelson Lemette was great. He's only 37% owned. We have an update on the humidor. A very important update on the humidor. Actually, are you guys even aware of the humidor update? Yes, we are, and I had the perfect GIF to respond to it, and then the GIF doesn't exist on Twitter,

and I didn't have the time to go make it, so I was disappointed. Okay, well, spoiler alert. There will be no humidor this year in Arizona, but that's coming up a little bit later. some fun stats. Andrew Miller leads all pitchers in strikeouts per nine with a minimum of 40 innings pitched. Andrew Miller, best K-per-9 minimum of 40 innings. Who's second?

Who is second? Yes, strikeouts per night. I'm more interested in who has like 37 innings pitched that was the reason we chose a 40-inning cutoff. 40 is awfully high for a reliever at this point, so it's not going to be like Kimbrall. It's a starter. It's a starter who has been a reliever. Brad Peacock. Brad Peacock.

Okay, I found the guys that have all been better on a caperine basis, but have like two innings less than him. You want a fun stat? Can I give you a fun stat while we're playing the fun stack game? I'll allow it. Okay, so I happen to open up Kenley Jansen's player page this morning because, you know, there's been a lot of talk of Craig Kimbril, Greg Holland. I haven't heard a lot about Kenley Jansen this year.

Kenley Jansen this year has 53 strikeouts to one walk. Mm-hmm. A 53 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. It's very good. Unbelievable. His whip is 0.53. Oh, he's the man, no doubt. But Brad Peacock is...

Getting back to the subject. I don't know what you do with this guy. He doesn't give you quality starts. He walks everybody, but he's so hard to hit. He's really good. I mean, well, when he's throwing strikes. He's 83% own Brad Peacock. Is he worth it with the lack of innings?

Yeah, I mean, he should be. He should be. I'm not sure that I'm really that move to start him on a typical one-start week. But he hasn't really burned you yet. And there's the hope that, you know, he finds a little more consistency with the strikes. Six walks yesterday and three of four. I think he has four or more. Can we go back to your Andrew Miller stat real quick?

Yeah, sure. Bouncing all around. If you drop it to 38.2 innings instead of 40 innings, The leader is Corey Knavel. Yeah, but I don't care about relievers. I'm talking about starters here. Well, then why did you choose 40 innings? Because he's only thrown like 40-something innings.

I had to lower the threshold. He's not a qualifier, Brad Peacock. You had to, okay. All right. That makes sense? Heath is more interested in your methodology than the actual. If you move it up to 50 innings, it's Danny Salazar still. Okay, but Peacock is better than Salazar.

You're making sure this is not the best show we ever do. Seriously. Awesome. People are loving it. Salazar 49 and two-thirds innings. And as a starter, he has 51 strikeouts in 33 and a third. All right. Anyway, anyway. Next stat.

Of all qualified pitchers, Irvin Santana has the lowest babbip at 208. Guess who's second? The second lowest babbip against. I guess I would have to guess Jason Vargas? Is someone with a career 129 whip who currently has a 117 whip and pitch? Pitched yesterday. Pitched yesterday. A?

He pitched really well yesterday. It is Lance Lynn. Lance Lynn. Yeah. I don't know if I could buy it with Lance Lynn. First of all, his previous two starts were terrible. But really good one yesterday. But yeah, he's always been like a 1.3 whip guy.

It's 1.17. What's his dabbit normally? I don't know what it is normally, but it's super low this year. Yeah. I mean, here's Lance Lynn, I mean, even with those, those two bad starts already in the bag, back-to-back seven run outings. His ERA is still a respectable 390,

but his FIPP is like 540. Yeah. But that's within two home runs per nine, basically, when normally he's an above-average home-run pitcher in terms of preventing home runs. I feel like that home-run rate is a little too high to believe, and maybe we shouldn't. go crazy burying

Lance Lynn here. I mean, I don't think he's a frontline starter in fantasy or anything. I think the two seven run outings were a necessary correction, but I don't think we should genuinely be scared of him having a five ERA at season's end. No, he's been both lucky with the

Bavip and unlucky with the home runs. He's got a 540 FIP. He's got a 455 X FIP. Lance Lynn is a number four starter, in my opinion. And I expect he's going to go six or seven innings and have a just right out of quality start most times. So to answer the question I put out there, his career babbeth is 300, so he's not

typically a low-babbiff guy. Yeah, he's had good luck there. Okay, that's Lance Lynn. And next stat, Evan, oh, would you rather have Lance Lynn or Brad Peacock, by the way? Lynn. Lance Linn. Lynn, maybe if it's a shallow league, though, where, you know, a middle-of-the-road pitcher like Lynn doesn't have as much value, then maybe I shoot for the upside. Peacock. Next fun stat, Evan Longoria entered, well, no, actually I updated it. So now after Thursday's games, Longoria is the number seven. He's the number seven-third baseman in points leagues, but he's number 15 in Roto. Evan Longoria.

If you take his production and put him at first base, he'd be number 15 in points, number 26 in Roto. instead of seventh in points and 15th in roto at third base. So bottom line, last year it looked like third base was taking over first base, like as the premier position. Not this year. Third base sucks this year. First base is so much better. I totally missed the Lance Lynn or the Evan Longoria hot streak.

It's not even that great. It's just like it's, okay, I'll tell you what it is, but how about that? Just how much better first base has been than first. Oh, yeah, yeah. I mean, first base. and probably outfield. They're really in a different class in terms of depth, as they usually are,

and I don't know why we assumed it'd be different coming into the year. These things correct themselves, it seems like. But I don't think third base is bad. There's still a lot of usable third baseman. Mike Mustakis, who's among the home run leaders, I've had trouble moving him into my top 12 at the position. A lot of it is that Evan Longoria has done a remarkable job of playing games.

He's got 339 plate appearances, and he's outscored Mike Mustakis by five fantasy points when Mastakis has 290. Which is fine. I mean, I don't think I have Longoria on my top 12 either. Right. Yeah, also, Machado's been bad. Donaldson's been hurt, so that hurts. Biltre's been hurt. Bregman.

He's outside my top 12. He's probably behind those two. but, you know, I'm not without faith for him. I'm not without faith for Todd Frazier either. I tried to bury him yesterday in my enough is enough column, and I couldn't fit him in. I still have a lot of faith in Frazier. Wow, really?

Yeah, yeah. Why? I think. Like to be top 20? I think he's just having ridiculously bad luck, and I mean, I looked at like how hard he's making contact and stuff, And yeah, the hard contact percentage is down, but it's about the same as last year. It's not like there's this exaggerated change in the quality of contact like we've seen with Jonathan Luchroy, like we've seen with Troy Tuolwitzky.

I think there are better times ahead for Fraser. Okay. And finally, fun stat. Homer Bailey has allowed three home runs in four and two-thirds this season. That stat is officially the most closely associated with any first name in Major League Baseball. It's time to tell you about Seekkeek. There are a lot of events to go to this summer and like Tom Petty's on tour. That's pretty cool.

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Guys, give me some standouts. Actually, let me give you two. a couple of outfielders who are hitting well since coming off the DL are being called back up. Randall Gritchick, 30% owned. He's 7 for 22 with three home runs in five games, two walks and six strikeouts. Randall Gritchick. Juck Peterson, 49% owned. He said his AAA hitting coach found something in his swing that has helped him out.

And in 17 games since coming off the DL, Jack Peterson is hitting 291 with a 426 on base, a 709 slugging percentage. He has six home runs, 11 walks, and 13 strikeouts in 17 games. Now, he has sat against two of the three left-handed starters they face, but not a lot of lefties in that 17 games. The most recent one, once they saw how he was hitting, was the one he started against. Okay, so Jack Peterson, 49% owned, Randall Gritchick, 30% owned. Are these guys about to be owned in a lot more leagues? With both of these guys, and the types of players they are, I need longer.

to buy into hot streaks being more than just hot streaks? Because their profile is going to be streaker. Probably, but I do think Peterson's in a different class from Gritchick. If I had some assurance he would play more consistently against left-handers, I think I'd be picking him up almost everywhere. The big difference is that Gritchick hardly walks at all, and in these 17 games it's coming up at D.L., Peterson has 11 walks. He has a...

Gosh, he has a 426 OBP, like a nearly 1,200 OPS since coming off the DL. And obviously, this is a high pedigree player who, I know Chris Towers and I loved coming into the year. I don't know if Heath was on board with that, too. Yeah. No, I don't dislike Chuck Peterson at all. I just don't know that there's any reason at this point to expect him to be more than what he's been for his first 1,200 played appearances. Yeah, you would have to buy the explanation that when he was down at Trump. AAA, his hitting coach found something in his swing that he wanted that was missing or that

previously been there. Now, of course, his previous production wasn't all that good. Certainly, I'd go for Peterson over somebody like Gritchick over somebody like Curtis Granderson, who I guess we talked about a couple days ago. If you told me that Grichick was playing every day the rest of the year, I might take Gritchick over Peterson, but it's really close. Peterson gets on base more. Gritchick has more power.

The thing about Jack Peterson is he had an 847 OPS last year. didn't have that many at bats because he sat against lefties. So if you can just hit lefties a little bit better, then, you know, a guy that's 49% owned, might be somebody you want to take a shot on. Can we just dismiss what Abaldo Jimenez did yesterday, eight scoreless with eight strikeouts? Entirely. Okay. Are there any other major standouts we have to talk about before we get into the double-dongers?

It's like the standouts were the double-dongers. Then let's do it. All right. Carlos Correa. No steals this year, which is a little disappointing. He's still 13 last year. He's still 14 and only 99 games the year before. But now Correa is batting 309 with 16 home runs, and he is the number one shortstop in

points, number three in Roto. Joey Vato hit his second and 23rd home runs. He is the number three hitter in fantasy behind Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge in both points and Roto. So Correa and Vado, I don't know if there's much you want to say about them. Of course, the more interesting one is Jonathan V.R. Who homered off Homer Bailey and Kevin Shackleford in a blowout. Yeah.

A rusty Shackleford? The thing I would say about Correa is it's probably just a good reminder that when guys do go through that. And it's tough to call his a sophomore slump because he still had an OPS over 800. But guys do go through that sophomore slump. They often bounce back and progress even from where they were their rookie year. And it looks like exactly what Correa is doing. And does anybody have him now with the number one shortstop, even over Manny Machado? I still have Machado number one.

Me too. If this continues for the rest of the season and Machado ends the year with an OPS over 900 or Kareira does and Machado's just good, it's going to be hard not to have Karea number one next year. Scott, tell me what you think about Jonathan VR with two home runs yesterday. In the lead-off spot, Eric Sogarde sat. But this was the first game out of three since coming off the D.S. that Jonathan VR started. Yeah, and I suspect he'll be in the lineup again tonight after hitting two home runs, I would hope so.

It definitely puts him, shouldn't say definitely, in my mind, I would guess it puts him ahead again of Sogard in the pecking order here. What, one game? I don't know if one game can do that. Well, it wasn't so clear he was behind Sogard, was it? Yeah, I think it was based on before going on the deal. Except he started two or three games since coming off the D.O. No, he started one of three games since coming off of the deal. I'm almost positive.

And there was actually a quote from the Brewer saying that Sogard was going to be the regular second basement. Well, maybe I'm wrong, but I think I'm definitely not looking to drop VR today if I was hedging there yesterday. I'm okay, especially in a Roto league. I think if VR was dropped, you should go at him. and if you just lost Trey Turner and you're in a points league, you should go at him. He has much more upside than Eric Sogarde. The team does not seem very thrilled with him, and he's had a disgustingly bad year. Yeah, but he does have some steals.

Like he'll be a little better in fantasy, and yeah, he's only started one of three games coming off the deal. He'll be a little better in fantasy because he'll steal some bases than he will be in real life. But I'll tell you what this, like I've learned you don't overreact to two home. game that they happen. But I'll tell you just practically what this has done for me as a VR owner in one league. I have Franklin Barreto starting at the moment. And I have VR on my DL. If I had to make the choice today, I would drop Barreto for VR after the two homer game.

Maybe yesterday I would have changed. Maybe that would have been different. No, I agree with you. Yeah. So, all right, guys, I want to make a bold prediction about relief pitchers. And here it is. So I can just do whatever I want, I guess. there will be a major trade involving a closer before we get back for our next, you know, live show on Wednesday.

Remember, we're doing a pre-recorded show that's going to air Monday. Then we're off on Tuesday, on Wednesday, especially after what happened with Blake Trident. On Wednesday, we come back, there will have been a closer trade. It will shake up fantasy. Give me a prediction on who it's going to be. Well, I think you're wrong. I'm not wrong. I hope you're wrong because I really don't want to have to stop.

what I'm doing and write about it. I'll write about it. I'll step in. Yeah, right. Hey. I think you're one week too early. And the problem for the Nationals is everyone knows how desperate they are for a closer right now. And teams that have closers that they're going to trade have no urgency at all because they have another month to get the best deal for them.

So I think it's difficult for a team like the Nationals to get that deal done right now. you need to wait until those teams start to get a little more urgency and don't want to get stuck with those guys. Like what's the hurry for the Braves to trade Jim Johnson? I'll tell you who's going to get traded. I'll tell you he's going to get traded. And it won't be for a lot. It's just going to be a money dump. Mark Melanson's going back to the Nationals.

I know he's on the DL, but he's supposed to come off right after the All-Star break. I don't know that they're going to trade for something. Well, that's not going to happen July this week. Something's going to happen. I'm so sure about this. Wait. Are we counting, like, the K-Rod deal as something happening? No, no.

But, you know, broader question. Now is not a bad time to stash some potential closers and waiting. So give me some names that you would stash. Tommy Conley. I think Kyle Bearclaw is up there after the reports the other day that the Marlins are shopping both A.J. Ramos and David Phelps. I'm actually not, I mean, I guess you could stash a rhodis to this guy, you know. I'm not confident the Braves are going to trade Jim J. Johnson. They signed him to a two-year deal this offseason, so he's under contract next year as well.

He'll be traded over the weekend. Go to be better. I mean, maybe. We can't rule it out. But I'm not, like, I think David Robertson is absolutely getting traded. I think Addison Reed probably has a better chance of getting traded than Jim Johnson. So who would be next up for the Mets? I don't even know at the top of my head. Matt Harvey. Bartle-Cloon. You know, Brad Hand gets traded That wouldn't really change things, close or wise

I don't know, is there anyone Am I missing somebody obvious? Not that I can think of No, that sounded pretty good I'm going to try to check who set up for the Mets yesterday Um Dumb, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, who set up for the Mets yesterday?

It was, everybody can't wait, it was Josh Edgin. There's also Jerry Blevins. He's a lefty though, right? Blevins is a lefty. Is he's a lefty, too? I'm going to look up the Mets roster He is.

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All right, time for a new segment. It's called Scott and Heath aren't going to like this, especially Scott. Oh, okay. And here it is. Wow. Seth Lugo and Jose Urana are owned in more leagues than DeNelson Lament. Yeah, I knew you wouldn't like that. That's so stupid.

The Nelson Lament has had four terrific starts and two terrible ones, and the ERAs evened out to about five. Man, he was dominant yesterday. Yeah. And that wasn't even the 12 strikeout game he had. The reason I think this is dumb is because Denelson Lamett had a home start against the Braves. So he should have been higher owned than these guys. I'm not particularly... There's so much potential here, though.

There is... So much bat missing ability. His whip... Potential. Compared to that 535 ERA, his whip is like 1.17. So it's not like he's even had the control issues he did in the minors. No, the controls been great. He...

Well, the way Andy Green... was described it, and I don't know that the data really backed him up. I looked at it, and that's not what I had deduced from it, but Andy Green said he kind of fell in love with his change-up those two bad starts after, you know, it was praised so much in the first two. And that's not really his bed pitch. He's a fastball slider guy, and the change-up was just better than everybody expected. So he's gotten more back to fastball slider the last couple starts and dominated. I would, yeah, I guess I question a little bit the terrific starts for it and else. Matt, just because his last two starts, he went six innings and gave up three earned runs.

One of them, he had 12Ks, so that was great. But I don't think, like, he's basically, this was his best start as a starting pitcher. It's the first one where he's gone six innings and given up less than three runs. I don't, okay. I mean, it and the 12 strikeout game against the Cubs, right? Well, he had eight strikeouts against the Cubs. He had 12 against the Brewers, where he gave up six runs, or three runs. And six innings.

Well, all right. We're talking about the Nelson-Lamette. That's Chris Archer-like, you know? We're talking about the Nelson-Lamette right now. Chris Archer's usually a free-run per-start kind of guy. Yeah, and Lament. So I actually don't think it's that crazy for Lugo to be owned in more leagues. We should give a little credit to Lugo.

This was his first good start, right? No, no. He's been pretty-grating on a different scale, though we're grading to Nelson-Let's fantastic start for sure. Three quality starts out of four. There were four-quality starts out of six for Lament, right? You can check on that. Three quality starts out of four for Seth Lugo.

with high strikeouts. How is that, how is it a quality start with a high strikeout. Lemmets had four out of six. You said this is Lugo's first good starts, and you said Lemaetz had four fantastic starts. Okay, they may have been technically quality starts for Lugo, but he literally gave up three runs over six in two of those four.

Listen, listen, hold on, guys. Lugo, 42% owned, Nelson, the Nelsa Lema, 37% owned. Lugo, you know, and you go back to what he did last year, steady pitcher doesn't get you strikeouts, but maybe won't kill you. Lamet, you can't take away the fact that he did have two starts where he gave up seven earned runs in both of them. So, I mean, I kind of get that.

Urania, 51% owned, has the best ERA of this group and four straight quality starts. I feel like he'd probably be last for us, Jose Urana. Yes, for sure. We agree on that. Yeah, very boring. But, man. I feel like Lugo and Lament are in very stanchol.

Why are we great? Like, Lament's a rookie. Why are we grading him so critically? when Blake Snell gets pass after pass after pass, you know, that doesn't make any sense. Lament is getting the strikeout potential we want to see. I'm not grading him critically. He's been fine. I'm grading the evaluation that he's this must-own pitcher and has had four fantastic starts

when he's basically been Seth Lugo and three of them. If Blake Snell had done exactly what Lament did in those six starts, we would be salivating all over. Well, Blake Snell was a much higher prospect, and you generally tell me that I should trust the people grading the prospects. I mean, Lament wasn't a bad prospect. All right, Lemmette's under owned. Luis Castillo or DeNelson LeMette? Who would you rather have? I'd rather have LeMette.

He's done that. Yeah, I'd probably take LeMette. I think LeMette will be probably up here. He should go up to 60 or 70% owned, and he'll be back around 40 again at some point in the near future. Yeah, he's only a one-star pitcher next week, and it's at Cleveland, so I don't know if you want to start him. I'm not sure.

I'm not sure. And would you rather have Junjin Riu or Denelson Lemaet? Lemette. I don't have much use for Riu. I agree. Update on the humidor. I put more like Humidork, but that doesn't really make any sense. Just the only point I think of.

Thank you. It doesn't make sense, but it's, I like it. Arizona will not be using a humidor until next season, and that's great news, especially for Brandon Drury, who has a career home OPS of 917 and a Career Road OPS of 644. So that helps Brandon Drury. It helps everybody. It helps Jake Lamb.

I no longer really want to sell high on Jake Lame. It even helps Paul Goldsmith, even though he doesn't need that much help. But he's better at home and has been throughout his career. So it's great. Now, does it mean that Robbie Ray, Chris called Robbie Ray a sell high candidate yesterday? Does this news change anything in your evaluation of Robbie Ray? Does this solidify what Chris said? Yeah, not really for me because he was basically just saying he would sell him for an ace.

And I think we all agree with that. All right. Yeah. I mean, he's the closest thing to an ace without being an ace, so I'd be fine just holding on to him personally. Well, we have a lot more to get to. I want to get some prospects in there. I'm trying to put together a list of players that we've been asked about a lot, and, you know, a must-discuss list.

So let's go to that, and this is two parts. This is a JAG alert and a dropometer. And they're fairly similar. But the JAG alert is just, is this a JAG, and a jag is just a guy. Pretty replaceable player. Doesn't do anything special. Adam Jones.

He is number 60 in points, number 55 in Roto. And being hurt by being in what's been a pretty bad lineup. He's on pace for 81 RBIs and 86 runs, even with 30 homers. Actually, he's not really on pace for that. I think that would be his 162 game pace, but he's not going to play that many games. So anyway, Adam Jones, is he just a guy? Yes. in my enough is enough column yesterday.

He's not on what's within his control, he's not doing anything outside of what he normally does. There's no reason to think he's going to have some kind of correction here that causes him to take off. And I think he deserves a lot of

the blame for the whole run and the low run in RBI totals. I mean, he's on pace for 14 doubles after hitting 19 last year, so, you know, that hurts the RBI's and he doesn't walk at all. His on-base percentages right around 300.

And that's always been true for him. So he's in this outfield environment, he's just a guy. Yeah, I'm not dropping him in a five outfielder league. I'm probably still starting him, but in a three outfielder league he's all but useless.

Yep, that's Adam Jones. Okay. And next guy, and I'm framing this just the guy segment as like, you don't have to drop these guys, but you can. if there's somebody that you really want on waivers. Michael Brantley. Now, the numbers I pulled on Brantley were before yesterday's game. He had a really good game yesterday.

But really just not, like he had five home runs and seven steals in 56 games entering yesterday. He doubled twice. He walked twice, I think, yesterday. But I don't know. Brantley hasn't really been that good. He's 91% on it. Is Michael Brantley just a guy? I don't think he's just a guy.

I think he still has elite skills. the 9% walk rate, even 15% strikeout rate, which is higher than he's ever been, is still really good. 371 on base is outstanding. The difficulty is I feel like every time that he plays three games in a row, he's going to get hurt. I just feel like so many outfielders have passed him. And, you know, five outfielder league, he still must start. I would say points, leagues that penalize a full point for strikeouts instead of the CBS standard half a point. He's basically a must start in those, too.

I'd be curious what his fantasy points per game is. Yeah, well, because... Go ahead. Where's he ranked now in my points? I might be able to find that for you with relative... Find that for you with relative speed if I had both hands available to me, but if I'm looking it up one-handed, that's just going to take way too long. How many games is Michael Brantley played?

57. Okay. I'll tell you in just a second. And, I mean, I feel like he's just not giving you enough homers or steals. He's not really standing out. and he's got the potential. He's batting 306 now. So, I'm really not ready to drop.

I'm really not ready yet. But another couple weeks, I think, you know, if he's not, if he doesn't turn it around, I can see myself dropping with him. I think the weeks where he's been healthy, he has been probably a top 36 outfielder. I mean, just a guy, he's, he's replaceable. Like, he's not the reason you keep from, you know, making a trade where he's involved. It's like, oh, I have to hold on to Michael Brantley. I can't sell low on him. He's not, you know, the reason that's stopping you from upgrading in the outfield.

You can upgrade from him. But, you know, he's not anything that special. 2.96 fantasy points per game for Michael Brantley. That's not good. Let's give him 72 games because a lot of players have played about that. Then he would be at, he would be less than Josh Redick in a points game. But right around Matt Holiday, Josh Reddick, Chris Owings. That's not good.

Yeah, that's outside. the top 30 for sure. And probably around 30th or something. Okay. Next player, Evan Longoria. Is he just the guy, even though he's the number 7th, third baseman in points leagues, number 13 in Roto? Evan Longoria.

Yes, because we already talked about the fact that the reason he's number seven in points league is because he has so many more played appearances than most of the guys behind him. Okay. And now I will say for Longoria, you asked me what the hot streak was. I don't have the numbers, but seven straight weeks, seven straight weeks between 18 and 24 points. That's really good. really consistent production and no bad weeks.

So that surprised me. I also missed the hot streak. And the rays aren't bad. I had no idea. You know, the rays aren't bad. They score runs. They're not bad. But all right, you say Evan Longoria is just the guy.

How about Jason Kipnis? Is he just the guy? He might be less than a guy, actually. Not that second base is this super crowded position. But I've seen him dropped in a couple of my shallower leagues. and being in a position where I felt pretty good about my second basement, I had no incentive to add Kipness. I didn't feel like he had enough value for me to pick him up as a bench option

and the hope of trading him later. He's like Dustin Padroia or that's not a good comparison. But, you know, like Jed Lowry. I don't know that Jason Kipness is significantly more valuable in fantasy than Jed Lowry. Okay. What if I told you that Kipis, after, You know, he started the season on the DL. First 19 games he was terrible.

155 with two walks and 20 strikeouts. Since then, 38 games, he has an 855 OPS. That's encouraging. Most of that was like, you cut that in half. He had a really hot streak, and he's cooled off considerably since then. But not terrible. Yeah, the hot streak had me thinking I was wrong,

but then he cooled off again, and it's just like... I've got him in the same kinsler range. It's a borderline. line top 12 second baseman how about matt carpenters matt carpenter in a category's league okay points or even an o bp league he's excelling there but if you don't get points for walks or any credit for walks is matt carpenter just the guy i don't think so i think he's i mean you have it in here in the notes 249 babb if he does have a high fly ball rate which you also put in there but there's correction coming with that and the walks especially since he bats high in the lineup

they still make a difference in terms of runs scored. I expect him to be a plus contributor in three categories, and maybe he does get that batting average up to a point where he's doing more good than harm there as well. I'm not sure how much batting average is going to come up, but if he keeps hitting like he is, because he's up to a 50% fly ball rate, but he's got a 43% hard contact rate. If he keeps doing those two things,

he should be amongst the league leaders and home runs the rest of the way. All right, that's Matt Carpenter. And we don't know necessarily what a – well, you guys know. Listeners may not know what a good hard contact rate. What is a good hard contact rate? If you're over 33 percent, that's pretty great. And what do you say Carpenter's was? 43.

Yeah. Way over. It's outstanding. He's only a 12% soft contact rate, which we were talking earlier about Todd Frazier. and how his contact rate still looks about the same as it did last year when he hit, what, 40 home runs? Yeah. And his hard contact rate was right around 31%, and his soft contact rate is 24%. So Carpenter gets half as much soft contact.

He gets 50% of his contact, five balls, and he's got a 44% hard contact rate. He should have 25 home runs. Three, two, one, contact. What was that? No, what the hell? No? No? Now you made that up. And you totally just blew past my Rusty Shackleford reference. I'm watching different TV from you guys apparently.

What is Rusty Shackleford? What is that? That was Dale Gribble's alias on King of the Hill. No. Oh, really? Yeah, yeah. Anytime he didn't want the government intervening on something, he'd use the name Rusty Shackleford. Yeah, I stopped watching cartoons before that show.

started. Wow. You're missing out. All right. We are done with the Jag Alert. I'll tell you what's not just another restaurant, not a jar. Buffalo Wild Wings is a great place to watch sports. Whoever invented summer was obviously a sports fan, didn't even try to hide it. Playoff hockey, playoff basketball, the opening of both soccer and baseball. It's a clear display of favoritism. The other seasons didn't stand a chance. With three months of clutch playoff drama and the awakening of new seasons, it's clearly the work of a sports fan. They might as well have called it to sports season. In fact, the Buffalo Wild Wings, they do call it sports season.

Don't ever call it summer. That's not what it is. It's sports season. They're just waiting on the legal change. Buffalo Wild Wings, Wings, Beer Sports. Time for the dropometer. Let's do this quickly here. Zero to 10.

Oduble Herrera. That's not quickly at all. Five? 500? Or just five? Drop a meter? I'm just going to say five. I'm going to say seven.

Yeah. O'Do O'Do O'Do O'Donohrera, I didn't even look at Roto. He's the number 76 outfielder in points leagues. So there's that. But he does have five steals. Mitch Hanager. Mitch Hanager. He's been pretty good in June. People want to know about Mitch Hanigar. Drop o' meter on Hanigar. I mean, I'll give it like a four. I don't think it's... I think it's worth starting to think about because the strikeout rate has been high along. the Babbeth, I think, is still close to like 370, 380. 389.

Oh, even higher. So, and I was a little worried about this. I'm always a little worried when the guy who's just beginning to discover all he can be. I'm kind of worried about it for Chase Anderson, actually, when he's just in that process and then he suffers a long-term injury, how quickly he's going to gain it back, particularly in the case of an oblique and Hanager has such a, you know, He swings so hard. I just wonder if he's being a little tentative up there, too.

So between that and the high strikeout rate, I am not super confident that we'll get back to seeing the guy we saw in April, but it's still, it's not enough of this yet for me to pull the plug. That was Scott doing this quickly. Yeah, it was quick. Well, Hanneger was an interesting one. Four. I know that.

Four. Yeah, all right. Michael Conforto. Oh, I really don't want. One, two, two. I'll go four. Unless it's a 10-team league, I'm not even considering it with Conforto. Two Lewitsky, 12.

You know, probably like a 10, but then if I'm the trade-turner owner, that's who I'd be looking to pick up. Yeah, eight. Ian Hap, 71% owned. Two good weeks in a row, but now he's four for his last 23 with no walks and nine strikeouts. Ian Hap. No. Yeah, I just got to the point where I was adding him again. I don't know.

He's still, I think there will be a lot of adding and dropping a pap. I'll give it a five. Franklin Barreto, 48% owned. He is four for 21 with two walks and 10 strikeouts. Nine. I think it's way too early to just rule him out from living up to the upside. I'll give it a five. Yeah, I mean, it's like you got to look at what Alex Bregman did last year, right?

He was terrible for about a month, and then he was really. good. I don't think Bureto has a month. Well, that could be a problem. He's going to be the athletics an everyday player for most of the rest of the season. They're going to trade Lowry. I'm fairly confident. And

the way Susan Slusser, one of the A's beat writers put it when they called up Barreto, was the plan all along was to call him up in August after the trade deadline. They're just having to do it a little earlier. But I think he's going to go back down as soon as Simeon's ready, and then he'll come back in August. Right.

I don't think you have to hold him for that whole month that he's down. Depends how much you need a shortstop. Wilson Ramos in a one-catcher league, he's one-for-nine with a walk and a strikeout. Zero. Zero. Ooh. That seems. The only catchers I think I'm really preserving on any level.

The only players I assign any, the only players I assign any. The only catchers I assign any value to at all are Sanchez, Posey, and Perez. And anyone else is expendable. But Ramos was the number three catcher last year. He obviously has upside. My thing is I don't give a crap about one for nine. Yeah. Like, it's one for nine.

We were just saying a week and a half ago he could be a top five catcher. He could be. He could be. But, like, I'm not betting on it, you know? If I need to make a move, Ramos is somebody, I feel like... But do you think his one for nine is anything at all? No, it doesn't mean anything at all. All right.

And that's... I gave it a four, so, you know, I'm not dropping him everywhere. I just think he's expendable. Okay, all right. And here's a... We're going to finish the show with two-star pitchers, as we always do. New category. It's called Take That Max Scherzer. And Clayton Kershaw is the guy we're talking about here.

He threw seven scoreless sittings with two walks and 12-strikes. at the Angels. Kershaw is the number one starting pitcher in points, league's number two in Roto. Scherzer is number three in points, number one in Roto. The difference is Kershaw's 12 and 2. Scherzer's 9 and 5. Everything else favors Scherzer.

Better whip, more strikeouts, about the same amount of innings. But take that, Scherzerzer. It makes perfect sense that Kershaw would be better in the points formats then. He's getting the wins. Stupidest. Stats in sports.

What's the stupidest stats? Winns and lots. wins and losses. The wins thing really bugs me, but taking points away when my pitcher loses and pitches well. Oh, that is so awful. The Scherzer game at the Marlins last week was the shining example. Zero earned runs over eight innings and he gets a loss. And he almost threw a no-hitter.

We should move on. I'm about to go Nando. Oh, no, don't do that. We don't have time for the prospects, but Scott, if you want to just name the five prospects, Sure. The five minor leaguers who are being stashed, who should be stashed the most, are Ahmed Rosario, Yon Moncada, Kyle Schwerber, Derek Fisher, and I think Clint Frazier, that awful injury to Dustin Fowler yesterday just made me so sad last night. Major League debut in the lineup, and he's being carted off the field before he even gets in a bad as done first. probably a full calendar year.

But that clears a spot for Clint Frazier all of a sudden. Who is the better prospect anyway? So he's in my top five now. Atlanta DFA, Bartolo Colon, Corey Seeger returned. Miguel And Dohar was sent down by the Yankees, but that was so he can play third base every day. So that might be someone who comes back up at some point. But the Yankees lineup is not very good right now.

So next week, you might not want to. want to shy away from your pitchers who are at Yankee Stadium, you know, because I don't know if Castro will be back or holiday. They've got garbage after. They're still judging Sanchez, I mean. And Gardner, but, yeah, I mean, and Dedy. So the first four are pretty good, and that's bad. Wellington Castillo appears to be fine.

He's day to day. Charlie Borden could come back this weekend and let's get to the two-start pitchers. Yeah, we didn't get to everything, but you know what? It was a pretty good, pretty good job by you two today. I feel good about how I've done one-handed. But, you know, I'm, you know, the way you said it was going to be our best show ever, I hope there'd be more cereal talk. I love the cereal talk.

You know what? You just got to join us for the Monday mailbag because we will have cereal talk. For you. That I have a buyer's sell about Cookie Crisp. You know that TV reference. What did you say, Scott? Yes, that was Friends. He tried to give a Friends reference.

What did he say? You need to sing it next time. What did you say? It doesn't matter. I wanted to hear the reference. I try to find good starting pitcher matchups in one-start weeks, and I don't really think there's much. There's Josh Tomlin and Nick Povetta face San Diego, but San Diego's been hitting the ball a bit better lately. Dan Straeli's facing San Francisco.

You should start him. And Yolish Jasein is facing Philadelphia. If this were at home, I think you probably would start him, but he's been bad on the road, so I don't know. Yolish just seen at Philadelphia. So let's get to the two-start guys. And how about, there was one that was particularly interesting. Well, Masahiro Tanaka has Toronto and Milwaukee at home. And Stephen Matz has Washington and St. Louis on the road.

Do you feel comfortable with either Tanaka or Mats? Yes. I'm going to start them both. I don't feel comfortable with Tanaka. I don't feel comfortable with Matt's at Washington. Toronto? Are we scared at Toronto? I'm scared of Tanaka, period.

Oh, okay. Too good in row, three or four. I feel fine about him. How about Jayhap at the Yankees and home against Houston? And this is where it's important to keep in mind how many players the Yankees are missing. But Jayhap at the Yankees and home against Houston. He's been so reliable. I feel very good about starting him.

I'd put him below Tanaka, but I'd probably start him in the points league. There are a ton of games next week, so a lot of two-star pitchers. Good. Rick Porcello is one of them at Texas at Tampa. I'm starting him. In a points league, but probably not in categories. I think those days are over. It's a Categories league option.

Just so many hits allowed. Such a high web. Would you rather start Rick Porcelo or Trevor Bauer? Bauer has San Diego at home and Detroit at home? Porcelo easily. I think I'd rather start Bauer. He made some arsenal changes. The Indians pitching coach sat down with the entire staff.

at the end of May and reviewed what it is they need to start doing more of what their pitches, doing less of. And both Bauer and Corey Kluber's case, it was throw the breaking ball more. And it's led to much better results for both. Obviously, Cluber. It's more obvious how good the results have been. But Bauer has like a 388 ERA and one three-whip since then a lot more ground balls. So he's pretty usable. All right.

Yeah, I'm not buying any Trevor Bauer. All right. I'm going to sit this guy. You might yell at me. Sean Newcomb might have the two toughest matchups in baseball other than at Colorado. Houston at home at Washington. Sean Newcomb. I've got to yell at you.

Those are tough matchups from a largely unproven pitcher. I'm going to start him. I think he's certainly higher priority than like Rick Purcello for me and also Trevor Bauer. Yep. I'd even start him over a hip. Okay. Do you have the matchups in front of you? Nope.

I do. All right, let's do it. Heath get the matchups so we can do start or sit. John Lackey, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Start. Yep. Jeff Hoffman, Cincinnati and the White Sox at home. Two home starts.

No, you can't start. Sit. Sit at home. Adam Wainwright, Miami and the Mets at home. Actually, you might want to roll with him. He's good at home. Two years in a row. Start.

Waino. He scares me more than Bauer does. I think I would sit him, except maybe in a points league where I felt like I needed that extra start. That's Adam Wayne right now. Let's talk about some pictures you might be able to pick up. Junjin Ryu, Kyle Freeland, Joe Ross, who, yeah, that's pretty good. Go get Joe Ross again. Mets and Braves.

Was there a, I'm never doing that again about Joe Ross, Scott, from you? For me? I don't remember that. I thought what the Scott Blewett card came out on Twitter? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. But you're doing it this week, right? I don't know exactly what it was that I was never doing again. Probably, I think I called him the week's top sleeper.

I don't know that I'm going to call him this week's top two-start sleeper. Well, Ross's been pitching better, and he's got the Mets and the Braves, so I'm starting him. Yeah, I'd start him too. Would you start Ryu against Arizona and Kansas City? I would not. Would you start Urania at St. Louis and at San Francisco? No. At St. Louis and at San Francisco?

That's a pretty good over Ryu, yes. I don't understand how Areña's been so reliable because the strikeouts are very low. The ground ball rate is very low. It does play in a big home park, I guess. We do have to do this a little bit more quickly, guys. I'm sorry. Kennedy at Seattle at the Dodgers. Sorry, I offered some analysis.

No. But overreel. I don't, I'm sorry. I didn't hear it. We'll just go with Heath's answer. Okay. Daniel Norris, you can't start Daniel Norris. He's been terrible.

Carlos Rodon at Oakland, but also at Colorado. No chance. Overreau, but probably no one else. Alex Meyer is 34% owned at Minnesota and at Texas. I don't think so Probably not The possibly underrated Louis Perdomo at Cleveland

and at Philadelphia Not was both on the road Yeah I'm not getting the Perdomo love either He's only 23% owned I just think he's been pretty good Other than three starts this year I believe And I think they've been like at Arizona At Colorado

He's... Well I know I've heard Chris talking About liking him before And maybe even Heath too Have you ever said that Heath? I don't think I've said that I like him. I mean, he's been better than to Nelson Lament this year. I would disagree with that.

A thousand percent. Okay. That's Luis Perdomo. Blake Snell, we got to sit him at the Cubs and home against Boston. I don't really know there's anyone here, but David Paulino at Atlanta and at Toronto. Luis Castillo is someone you might, you're sitting Paulino, right? Now starting him. Yeah, sit him.

Luis Castillo, you probably want to pick up, but stash at Colorado. Colorado and at Arizona this week. Yeah, that's a little scary. A lot scary. The only picture that's been pitching well lately here in this bottom part of the list is Adberto Mejia has a 117 ERA in his last three starts. He gets the Angels and the Orioles at home. No, I want to do that.

I want to do that. Nope. They've been short starts and not a lot. Not great with the dominant stats. So no chance. All right, guys. we are done. We're doing a mailbag in just a little bit,

and you'll hear that on Monday. Everybody, please have yourselves a great Fourth of July. Thank you so much for listening. We'll talk to you on Monday with the mailbag, off Tuesday, back Wednesday, where we talk about the big relief pitcher trade. We can't wait.

Scott and Heath, have a great weekend. Same to all you got there. I should stop talking about now. Bye. See you.