Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/10: Mailbag and Baseball Movie Trivia (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 10, 2019

Answering your emails about Christian Yelich, Jose Ramirez, Scooter Gennett, Fernando Tatis Jr., the state of home runs in baseball, the common theme for successful Fantasy teams and so much more. And then we play "Name That Baseball Movie" with some famous quotes and some not-so-famous-quotes from our favorite baseball movies. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. What a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today. Another All-Star Break edition.

It is Wednesday, July 10th. I'm Adam Azer with Chris Towers. And we've got basically nothing but your emails and some fantasy regulators to do. at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Chris, don't you miss the days when the All-Star game mattered for home field advantage? No, not at all. I don't either, but I probably would have watched it if it had. Like, I didn't, honestly, like, it was one of those things that made a lot of people angry,

and, like, how can they decide All-Star Home Field Advantage? And it's like, it's no more or less arbitrary than, any other way that you do it. What? The All Star Game... Like, best record, they're not playing the same team, so it doesn't really matter if you have the best record. No.

Oh, my God. That's the take you're starting off to that... Yeah. Yeah. That's what we're going. It's a terrible take. And didn't they used to just alternate it? Yes, that was bad.

That made no sense. But record is clearly what they should use, which is what they use now. Record is better than All-Star Game winner. Are you kidding? You're talking about players that aren't even on the teams that are competing in the World Series. I mean, like, I'd rather do, like, Interleague Record. No, they're still not playing the same teams.

Yeah, but, you know. I don't like it. Shane Bieber was the All-Star Game MVP. Also garbage. Should have been Chapman. Ugh, you're the worst. Shane Bieber. Oh, my God.

Oh, God. Shade Bieber strikes out the side on 19 pitches. Chapman strikes out the side on 12. Pitches in the ninth inning. If it should have been one of those two, it should have been Chapman. All right. Today's sponsor. Unbelievable.

It should have been Joey Gallo. Maybe. Today's sponsor is ZipRecruiter. Go to ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. Try ZipRecruiter for free if you need to hire someone. ZipRecruiter.com slash strike is the best place to go. Let's get to the emails. We got a short show today.

Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. The first three emails are about Jose Ramirez. This is from Thomas. Fantasy Folks. At the All-Star break last year, the consensus top three included Jose Ramirez because of his high average stolen bases and increased fly ball tendencies. Can you discuss the similarities to this year and Christian Yelich? He seems to have ascended to the top because he joined the launch angle revolution.

Is there a chance that Christian Yelich goes into a slump reminiscent of Jose Ramirez? Sure. There's always a chance, but what happened to Jose Ramirez over the last calendar year or so is pretty wildly unprecedented as far as I can't remember. I can't remember a player going from being a legitimate MVP candidate two years in a row to basically a replacement level player. He's been one of the 10 worst hitters in baseball probably. So, yeah, there's a chance that that happens to Yellage, but it seems pretty slim.

Okay. Do you see similarities between the two? in terms of how they got to this elite tier? No, because in Yelich's case, he always hit the ball really hard and he always hit the ball really far. The problem was he didn't hit the ball really far very often, but there was no doubting that he had the raw power

to do something like this. I mean, you looked at it for the last couple of years, even before the breakout. He always had a really high home run to fly ball ratio. of the highest in baseball. Always had one of the highest average fly ball distances, average home run distances. So in that instance, no, because Jose Ramirez, a lot of his was relatively short home runs hit to the pull side.

It's actually a lot more like Alex Bregman's power breakout than Christian Yelich's breakout. Okay. By the way, Jose Ramirez, I mean, you just go to his fan graphs page. His batted ball data last year to this year is nearly identical in terms of soft, medium, hard contact rate, ground ball rate, flyball rate, infield flyball rate, it's all very similar. Line drive rate. The biggest difference, his home run to fly ball rate is 5.3% for Jose Ramirez. Last year was 16.9% the year before 14.1%. So is this just Wilson Contreras all over again?

I'm sure there are other issues there. But Contreras last year, incredibly low home run to fly ball rate. He has bounced back. Now he has a career high, home run to fly ball ready. That appears to be just looking at the wrong numbers on the bat of ball data, the biggest issue right now for Jose Ramirez. Also, he is going opposite field a little bit more and pulling the ball a little bit less than last year. All right, let's move on.

I think it is worth noting. He's probably a really good buy low candidate because of the things you mentioned, but also over the last 19 games, which is an entirely arbitrary sample, but I could put one more game in and we can make a 20. He's hitting 284 with an 866 OPS. Hey, last 12 games, it's a 960 OPS. He's batting 318. How about that?

Coming around a little bit, but two home runs in his last 12 games, they were both in the same game. So I don't know that we're going to see that type of power again, but hopefully he can give you some average and can keep stealing bases, get some counting stats, plate disciplines. Good. This is from Noah. What does Jose Ramirez have to do to regain first round value for next year?

And where do you expect his ADP to be next year? I would expect his ADP will be... I mean, it's going to depend entirely on how he finishes the season. If he goes out and hits 300 and slugs 15 homers in the second half, then I think you can make a case that third or fourth round probably makes sense. It would be really hard to get him back into the first round just because first round players don't go through stretches like this. You know, even when first round players have bad stretches,

I cannot remember a player that we've drafted in the first round who's after they've gone through a stretch like this. Oh, I don't know. You know who comes to mind, Bryce Harper? Two years ago? I don't think he ever had any stretches like this, though. He's had mediocre stretches. He's had stretches where he wasn't what we thought he should be.

But I don't think, and I could be, wrong, but we're talking about like 120 games of Jose Ramirez being a well below average hit. 2016, Bryce Harper, his first 35 games, he had about 1,100 OPS, 11 home runs in 35 games. He was amazing. Last 112 games of the season, he had a 734 OPS. He had 234 with 13 home runs in 112 games. 734 OPS because his OBP was so high. But that's all he did basically was walk. 71 walks in those 112 games.

And then, oh, he was playing through an injury. He came back in in 2017. He was one of the best players in baseball. He only played 111 games, but he batted 319 with 29 home runs. There was an injury excuse there with Bryce Harper. If Jose Ramirez comes out and basically is as good as he was last year for the second half, I think he will sneak into the back end of the first round. That's next Jose Ramirez's email.

From Brian in New York. Should I trade Mike Must do? for Jose Ramirez in a head-to-head redraft categories league. I think you should, yeah. Okay. Next email is from Todd. Dear Mariano, Trevor, Raleigh and Goose, their closers. Ten team, very active roto league. My closer situation is quite sad at the moment.

Who are some relief pitchers I should be looking to stash in preparation of closers being traded? Adam, every time you ask us one of these questions, there's always an awkward pause where we start scrambling. to look for teams who are going to trade their closers. And so I will give you maybe Sam Dyson, maybe Reyes Moranta from the San Francisco Giants, because like we talked about yesterday, Will Smith is absolutely 100% going to be traded.

Sergio Romo seems likely to be traded, and he's someone who, you know, you're not going to miss necessarily. but the Marlins do have a couple of guys in their bullpen. Austin Bryce has a 193 ERA, but Nick Anderson, I think, would be the guy who you'd really want to target. He's got 58 strikeouts in 37 and a third innings. So if he, if Sergio Romo gets traded, I think he'd probably be someone to target.

And then, I mean, you look at like Baltimore and Kansas City, like, yeah, they'd like to sell, but I don't know if there's anybody in those bullpens that you'd want to add. Well, I think Aaron Bummer in Chicago for the White Sox is interesting. I think Daniel Hudson for the Blue Jays. And I know that Dyson would have an opportunity. I know that Dyson would get picked up when Will Smith gets traded. But for what it's worth, Tony Watson, even though he's left-handed, Tony Watson pitches the eighth almost every single time.

There's a save situation. He is the eighth inning guy. Dyson is the seventh inning guy. So if you have to have to keep in my... mind with him, though, that he seems pretty likely to get traded. Watson? Will Smith is. I mean, this was the storyline with the Giants was that before the season, it seemed likely

they were going to trade basically everyone in the bullpen who wasn't on a rookie contract, basically. So, you know, that's where I think Maronta might have, I think that's how you pronounce it, might have the edge, is just in terms of service time. All right. And then one other guy to keep in mind is Hunter Strickland. I'm sure he was dropped in a lot of leagues, but could be making his way back.

Let me just check Hunter Strickland's ownership percentage. And maybe Joe Jimenez. He hasn't been very good this season. He has been so bad. He has been so bad. But Shane Green seems very likely to be traded. He's at the peak of his value. Amazing.

He had like 10 saves in the first three weeks of the season, and he has 22 at the break, so that's not a great sign. But Jimenez has been viewed as the closer of the future. imagine given the fact that nobody else has been good in that bullpen, they might give him an opportunity to work the ninth inning if a Shane Green trade happened. Okay. And Hunter Strickland is like 20% owned, 29%. From Brian, Scooter Jeanette is available on waiver.

Should I drop Daniel Murphy or Chris Taylor for Scoots in a 10-team categories league with walks and total bases? I wouldn't drop Daniel Murphy, but I'd consider dropping Chris Taylor. Consider. Oh, you got it. I do. I think Chris Taylor is on the bench now. Corey Seeger's back. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, drop Chris Taylor.

From Sean in Detroit. Is Fernando Tatis Jr. a sell-high candidate? Babib is 420. I know X-Stats are more what has happened compared to what will happen, but the gaps are massive between Tatis' X-Stats and his real numbers. In fact, they are the biggest in MLB for batting average slugging in Wobah. I haven't confirmed that, by the way. How much regression could happen for Fernando Tatis?

So I wrote yesterday on CBS Sports.com a second half sleeper, second half breakouts, and second half bus column. You can go check those out, all three of them. And yeah, Fernando Tatis is one of my top second half bust candidates. And it's one that doesn't make me feel great because he's such an obviously elite talent. And he's a power speed guy. So, you know, there's a chance even if maybe the batting average, it will come down. He's probably more like a 270 hitter, you know, even in a good outcome. But, you know, there's a chance he still hits for enough power and steals enough bases that it makes me look dumb.

But, yeah, the underlying skill set right now doesn't look strong enough to back up what he's doing. Now, that doesn't mean that in the second half, he won't continue to improve and make up for whatever regression is coming. That's totally possible. That's something to keep in mind. And anytime we're talking about a young player who's on the upward trajectory of their career when we're talking about regression is, you know, the skill set might catch up. And he's certainly talented enough for that. But yeah, I think he's probably one of the better sell high candidates.

The one thing I suggested was, you know, maybe offer Fernando Tatis to the J.D. Martinez owner in your league and see if he's getting antsy. Yeah, I'm going to try to trade Tatis for pitching. But just keep one thing in mind, you know, a few things in mind. He's always had a high Babbitt in the minors. Yes. But... I know it's 419.

It'll come down. But that's the thing is, even if we think he's an elite Babbitt hitter, the highest Babbitt for any player over the last 10 years is Domingo Santana, and I believe it's like 263 or 265. So even if we think he is like the best Babbitt hitter and... What's that? 263? 263, sorry.

Sorry. Sorry. Well, I didn't know maybe he had like a 465 Babbitt or something. I didn't know. It surprised me that the highest Babbat. This is not for, I think the highest

for single season was like, obviously El Garcia when it was like 405 or something. But the highest for a combined over the last 10 years, I believe is Domingo Santana, and it's in the 360, 365 range. Okay, I guess. So even if we think Fernando Tatis is

not just a high Babbitt guy because like the 90th percentile would be 3.30. 35, 340. Even if we think he's the best BABB guy, he's probably got 50 points of Babbat progression coming. Yeah, but also, he leads off. He has scored 46 runs in 55 games. He's very good.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I got, all right, let's move on. Let's move on. I'm not disputing you, Chris. I'm just trying to help. No, yeah, you're tearing everything I'm saying. I want, no, I agree. I'm trying to trade him.

I'm going to try to train him. I didn't do anything to you. Troy Schaefer wants to know if he should be dropping Buster Posey, for Danny Jansen or Christian Vasquez. I mean... I do it... It feels dumb to say no, but it also feels dumb to say yes.

He is so bad right now. It's Buster Posey, and the underlying numbers don't really suggest that there's much better coming. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard anymore. He strikes out more than he ever used to.

He's not walking as much. And he just hasn't hit for power each of the last two seasons. And even really going back to 2017 was the start of his decline from the elite status at Catcher. And I think Danny Jansen will be better, rest of season. Not Christian Vasquez at all. I would do it, though. I'll tell you why, because we know he's not going to have power.

So what was saving Buster Posey was plate discipline. He wasn't even – and playing all the time. He wasn't even that good in Roto leagues, really. He was just to stand out in points leagues. But the plate discipline is not there anymore. So it's not bad, but it's not like one walk to one strikeout like it used to be. So I don't see, like he's been hot the last two weeks. He scored 13 and 11 fantasy points.

You can replace that. I would personally take a chance on a hot player and do that. I just, I don't think it'd be Christian Vasquez. It would be Danny Jansson for me because the underlying skill set I think is a lot stronger for him. All right, here's one from Jolan from Canada, Saskatchewan, Canada. amid this home run environment, we are consistently seeing these middling players jump up into the 30 to 40 home run territory.

I guess like on pace for 30 to 40. However, it feels like we aren't seeing people like Gallo and Carnacio and Hoskins, Stanton, jump up into the 50 to 60 territory. It appears that the lower-end power hitters are seeing a bigger boost in power than the high-end power hitters. Is this something that we should possibly address in drafts next year and not look for high-end power guys, not necessarily,

but find our power and count. stats with other guys? Well, there are nine players with 25 homers already, and I would imagine Joey Gallo. He's not on the leaderboard, but I think he's in that range too. So there are, he's at 20, but only 61 games. There are guys on pace for 50-ish homers. So I don't want to discount that, but I think, you know, there was a column on USA Today the other day, just doing the like, what if there's steroids widespread around baseball again?

And I think this trend that you're talking about here, Jolin, is exactly why the steroid argument doesn't hold any water. Because when we did see the steroid error, what we saw was huge jumps across the board. There were more players hitting for 20 homers, more players hitting for 30 homers, but also there were guys hitting for 50, 55, 60, 70, 73. So I think that's the evidence that this is a league-wide thing. And I think why you're not seeing it impact some of the higher-end guys quite as much is those guys don't really, they're not hitting a lot of wall scraper. They're not hitting a lot of fly balls to the warning track.

When Joey Gallo hits a home run, it's pretty much going out. no matter which baseball you're using. And so there are certainly players who are benefiting from this, and every player in baseball is. But I would say the effects are probably more concentrated amongst the middling to low-end power guys. I mean, Yelich, Alonzo, Bellinger, Trout, Josh Bell, Hunter Renfro. I think they're all on pace for 52 or more home runs,

or at least more than 50. So that's a pretty large amount of guys who are on base for 50. Like, I would bet, you know, maybe two of them get there, but most of them will fall short. But it's not exactly, like, when you look at that group, none of them look wrong. Like, all of those guys probably as prospects are young major leaguers graded out as 70 to 75 grade raw power guys. So, you know, Hunter Renfro is now making enough contact to hit for that kind of power. enough. You know, but for the most part, it doesn't look incredibly fluke.

Let's take a quick break on fantasy baseball today. We got more emails when we come back. Okay, we got an email from Todd who wanted us to look at our leagues and look at who the best teams in the leagues were so far and which pitchers they have on their roster and who their rounds one and two players were. So I did this beforehand, and I looked at four of our leagues. I looked at our podcast points leagues with 12 team points, our 16 team podcast categories league,

the editorial league that we're both in, which is a 14 team points league, and the 12 team Roto league that we're both in. So these are the four leagues that Chris and I are both in. And I looked at the top two teams in each league, so that's eight teams in total. And I noticed that in three of the four leagues, one of the top two teams had Max Scherzer.

In fact, I think the first place team in three of the first place, team in three of the four leagues had Scherzer. Yep. So that's nice. Heath had a very interesting team in our podcast points leagues, points league, excuse me, 12 team points league. His first four picks were DeGrom, Garrett, Cole, James Paxton, and Zach Granky. So he's been able to find hitting, obviously. He has LeMayhew, Gallo, and Tatee are his best hitters, but DeGrom, Cole, Paxton, and Granky were his first four picks. He's not second in the standings, but he has a second in the standings. He has a second. at most points.

But yeah, I did find that trend. I think Max Scherzer has... And along with Verlanner, they have the same amount of fantasy points. Scher's probably been the most valuable player in fantasy, in my opinion. Possibly, yeah, I would say over Yelich. Scher, yeah, he's the most valuable player, I think, when you consider how bad pitching has been. I will say one thing that I've noticed this year, and maybe I'm wrong, but...

It feels like this has been a really good year for avoiding the middle class of pitcher, getting the elite guys, and then just really cycling through guys until you find them. There have been a lot of pop-up pitchers this year. I think more than usual who have turned into... What's that? I don't think I agree. I think the middle tier has been pretty good. I think when you look at guys like David Price and Tanaka and Bieber and

Charlie Morton and Luis Castillo, Armand Marquez, half the time. I think the middle tier's been pretty good. I actually think the ace tier's been pretty crappy. Yeah, I guess it depends how we're defining middle tier. I'm thinking like rounds seven through 13, you know, that kind of portion of the draft. Yeah.

Yeah, I guess. I don't know. There's certainly been a lot of value there. Let me read some more. I view the middle tier more as the, I guess maybe it's more like the second and third. here starting pitchers. That's where it's been pretty raw. Dylan from San Jose

State 10 and 3 record. Should I currently have Dylan cease, Sunny Gray, and Ross Stripling. Would you drop any of them for Brad Peacock, Spencer Turnbull, or Pablo Lopez? Dylan Seas, Sunny Gray, Ross Stripling, would you drop them for Peacock, Turnbull, or Lopez? No, I think you could maybe drop Dylan

Sees for Pablo Lopez. I think he's probably going to be the most effective of that group, But I think I would drop C's certainly has more upside. I would do it for Peacock. Peacock was having a really good year before going on the I-L. And I think he's going to be back pretty soon. But I can understand just standing, Pat. From, oh, no name here.

Just got offered Will Myers for Justin Turner. Would you do it? No way. Will Myers has been on the bench lately. Keep that in mind. No. No. Wilm Myers is not one of their best outfielders.

I saw Myers available. I keep talking over you. I'm sorry. I saw Will Myers available in a 13-team Roto League, and I'm just, nope, not interested. Yeah, I think he's sat like 12 of the last 17 games for them or something crazy like that. Wow. James wants to know if you have any faith in Mike Fires. No. Okay.

I mean, we have him in a song that we played on the podcast Where we talked about like It's a pretty long stretch He is he goes through these stretches where he's decent But the peripherals never back it up And eventually he ends up getting shelled Gray the trade from Justin Give up Mike Soroka get Noah Cinderguard in a points league

A I'll give it a B From Boris Gray the Trade Soroka was another one of my second half I have boss, sorry. 12-team Roto League. Give up Griffin Canning, Brendan McKay, and Jock Peterson, who I dropped last night for 100

Pence, by the way. Give up Griffin Canning, Brendan McKay, and Jack Peterson. Get Dylan Seeson, Bryce Harper. Yeah, I think that's like a B-minus, I think. Let's take a quick break. I'm not 100% certain in a 10-10. Keeper League that you're keeping Griffin Canning or Jock Peterson next year. Oh, you're not going to be Peterson.

And so I think there's a very good chance you're keeping Bryce Harper and a pretty good chance you're keeping Dylan Seas. Brendan McKay might be better than Dylan Seas, but the upgrade for your team now and in the future with Harper, I think is much more significant. When we come back, name that baseball movie, movie quote trivia for Chris Towers. Tomorrow on fantasy baseball today, we will do some serious regular. But for now, we're going to do some movie trivia right after this. Chris, how's your baseball movie knowledge?

So my problem is there are a lot of baseball movies that a lot of people like that are bad. And so... For example. I don't like them. The natural. Not in this contest. I don't... Field of Dreams is whatever.

Terrible movie. Pride of the Yankees, I know. Feel the Dream. but it is in this contest. Yeah, I mostly like the comedy side of the baseball movie. I think that's usually where it works out better. We'll see. I'm not super confident about how this is going to go, no.

Okay, here are the six movies that you will be choosing from. Okay. Angels in the outfield. Love it, classic. Major League. Love it, classic. Little Big League. Love it. Classic.

Field of Dreams. Who? Bull Durham. It's fine. And Rudy. Because I just want to throw Rudy in there. Rudy stinks. All right.

Here's our first quote. You used to be Mel Clark? That's Angels in the Outfield. That is Angels in the Outfield. That's the little kid, yeah. That is, yes. That's not the joke. The cast of that movie is unbelievably stacked, by the way.

Okay. Like, I don't know if you remember Matthew McConaughey, Adrian Brody. Oh, yeah. Are in that Joseph Gordon-Levett? Absolutely. Yeah, it's a good one. Tony Danza?

All right. Tony Danza. Next up, let's see. Let's go to Christopher Lloyd. Oh, I forgot about rookie of the year is also in here. Classic. Lucky of the Year.

Love it. Okay. In baseball, we use signals. Make some kind of signal. I can't come over here every couple of seconds. I'll go like that. That's Angels of the Outfield, too. That is Angels of the Outfield.

Good job. Okay. Both are Angels of the Outfield. You're two for two. Let's see Well, you know what my dad always said Having dreams is what makes life tolerable That's got to be

The field of dreams, right? Incorrect. That is Rudy. That is Rudy. That's why I put it in there just to throw you off. Put the word dreams in there. All right, let's see. How about this one? Hot ice!

I heat up the ice cubes. That's rookie of the year. That is rookie the year. Good job. Three out of four. Yeah, that's like the weird pitching coach or whatever he is. Yes. Besides, seeing is the most important thing, son.

I don't think it's that important. A major league. Yeah. All right. What's the scene? That's, uh, I would think it's with Wild Thing. Yeah. Who says, I don't think it's that important?

Bonus point. It's not Wild Thing? It's Willie Mays Hayes commenting on Wild King's Glass. Yes. All right, we've got... Oh, yeah, that makes sense. You should start Webman. He always beats the Rangers.

He always beats everybody. That's why he's three and seven. Oh, uh, is that a little big league? That is. You're killing it. Good job, man. Uh, if you build it, he will come. Oh, tough.

That one, I can't pin down where that one's from. I gave me a layup. I give me a layup. Wildly guess Field of Dream. Yeah. A good friend of mine used to say, this is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.

Think about that for a while. That's Bull Durham. Good job, Chris. I wouldn't have gotten that or no Bull Durham very well. What's this guy know about pitching? If he's so good, how come he's been in the minors for the last 10 years? If he's so good, how come Annie wants me instead of him? Is that Major League?

That is Bull Durham, you loser? Oh, okay, that makes sense. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a... Well, it's not Dennis Quaid. It's the other guy. I have no idea. Kevin Costner.

That was the baseball guy. I've heard the show Yosemite or whatever is good with Kevin Costner, whatever that gets called. Here we go. You put snot on the ball? I haven't got an arm like you, kid. I got to put anything on it I can find. Someday you will, too. That's rookie of the year.

Is it rookie of the year? It's got to be working here. It's major league. It's major league. That was a major league loss for you to end the show. Wow. I mean, I got like a B. That you did well.

You got, I think, 8 out of 7 out of 10? And really, one of the ones I got wrong doesn't count because Rudy is not a baseball movie. It's barely a movie. I don't even remember that quote from Rudy. And I love Rudy. Well, we are out of time. In fact, we went over hour a lot of time. Sorry, video crew.

Thank you for your emails. Back tomorrow with some major trade talk to get you ready for the second half and some fantasy regulators at fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. For Chris, I'm Adam. Talk to you tomorrow.