Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/11: So Much Trade Talk; Fantasy Regulators (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 11, 2019

It's basically a whole lot of trade talk today. Scott and Heath start with their favorite Buy Low (2:00) and their favorite Sell High (7:05) guys. How good can D.J. LeMahieu be rest of season? And more thoughts on Jose Ramirez ... A roto strategy to consider (12:00), news and notes including our takes on robot umpires (18:00) and all the Buy Low you can handle (22:00)! We debate Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jose Berrios, Paul Goldschmidt and more ... How about some guys to sell (44:00)? We don't agree on Luis Castillo. What about Mike Soroka? And are we concerned about innings limits for a couple of SPs (48:00)? Plus we give you some SP options for the next 3 days (50:00) and then it's time for the Fantasy Regulators (53:00)! ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Well, hello, everybody. My name is Adam Azer, and I'm going to start today's show with a confession. I have been hosting a fantasy baseball podcast for like 10 or 11 years,

and I had no idea that was a game tonight. until just a few hours ago. It's terrible. One little game sneak it up on us. How about that? You should have known that 10 years ago, Adam. Ten years, yeah, yeah. No, I was saying it's terrible that there's a game tonight.

Oh, it's terrible that there's a game tonight. So wait, let me ask you a lineup question. Can we still make ad drops tonight that process tomorrow and put them in our lineup for this scoring period? I don't think so. Really? That's why it's terrible. Yeah, that is terrible. That's the case.

They did this too as last year, too. We had a nice run there a few years in a row where everybody got four days off during the All-Star break instead of some teams having three. But they've gone away from that the past couple years. One little game. Rangers, if I played for the Rangers or Astro, I'd be especially disappointed.

It's very strange, but I guess they get the spotlight. Let's check the standings. The Astros lead the Rangers. Rangers by nine games. They lead the A's by seven and a half. All right, so we do have one game tonight as Framber Valdez pitching against Lance Lynn. So maybe I'll watch a little Lance Lynn tonight in Framber Valdez.

Who's interesting? And we will talk about him in a bit. Today is just a bunch of trade talk. Buy low, sell high. Tomorrow will be some of that as well. But also tomorrow I think we'll look more at roster trends, most added, most dropped, most viewed, things like that. Scott, I'm going to start with you since you're back from a long break.

We haven't talked to you in a week. Who is your favorite by-low going into the second half? Well, yes, for a list of by-lows, and I intentionally left this guy out because I was afraid it was too obvious. But if you're going to say favorite, make it a superlative. I don't mind going the obvious route. And I'm going to say that Blake Snell is my favorite by-low. Maybe the past two starts, one of which was great, one of which was just fine. have rendered it less possible to buy low on him.

But he's had, the supporting numbers make him out to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher still. And because of a rough stretch in June, the ERA, the win-loss record, they don't reflect that. So I think he's the top six pitcher in fantasy, at least, going forward. And there's a good chance the guy who owns Blake Snell does. doesn't value him as such, and especially because he's a pitcher, and that's where I'm sure you have a definitive need because who doesn't have a needed starting pitcher, that's who I'd be pursuing the most heavily right now. Pete, who's your favorite by-low?

I'll go obvious as well and just say Jose Ramirez. I think there's a chance that he has started to figure things out since June 14th. He has a 284 batting average with an 867 OPS. He's still running. He's added a little more power. He's walking more than he's striking out. His season long numbers still look absolutely terrible. I would actually rather have Jose Ramirez than Javier Baez, rest of the season.

I don't think that's super obvious, by the way. I think it's, to me, not an obvious by low. I mean, unless we're talking just, you know, waiver wire, like, I don't know, waiver wire guy that you picked up that you're turned. Like, I'd turn Lance Lin at to Jose Ramirez. I think we all would. But, yeah, Scott, you mentioned something. a few, like maybe a week or two ago about, what was it, like inside fastballs or something

and that you don't think the power could be there, even if the batting average comes back up? Am I completely wrong about what you said? Yeah, and I'm obviously short-changing the analysis, and I'm taking someone else's analysis. I wish I had the guy's name memorized, like, when I kept... Oh, man, now I forget the name of the doctor who I kept referencing. Dr. Mike Tanner? Dr. Mike Tanner, yeah.

I give him credit every time I brought it up. But I believe pitcher list is the site. Hopefully I can at least drop that. And they have a really good piece breaking down everything that's gone into Jose Ramirez's slump, which dates back, of course, the last August. And, yeah, basically pitchers have stopped pitching him in his sweet zone. And he hasn't adjusted back yet. Now there's evidence looking at past data, looking at the things he's good at,

that he could adjust and become a really good fantasy player again. But it probably wouldn't be, you know, potential 40-Homer guy and a high batting average. It would probably be, I mean, 40-Homer guy is probably out the window now. But there's still a potential he could be a high-average guy if he makes the proper adjustments. Okay. which it doesn't look like to this point he has. I brought this up on yesterday's show about Jose Ramirez, 5.3% home run to fly ball rate.

It was 14.1% 2017. It was 16.9% last year. And everything else pretty much looks the same. You would want his hard contact rate to go up because everybody's is going up. His is stagnant, but the home run to fly ball rate is just minuscule right now compared to what we usually see from Jose Ramirez.

Like even if you look at his career, His home run to fly ball rate is half of what it is over his career. So if he had 14 home runs right now, would we feel quite as bad? I guess it wouldn't be 14, but you know what I'm saying. And his bab is 50 points below where it is over his career. And his career is below average. But if we go further into that, he's like 5.3% home run to fly ball rate. It might be half of his career rate, but it's also pretty similar to 2015 and 2016, which was 6%.

Yeah, that's true. But back then he was a better bad bit hitter. Okay. Yeah, I mean, back then he was still really good fantasy player. It wasn't like last year where he was hanging with trout and bets. But, yeah, there's still hope he can get back to that. It's just been, we're coming up on close to a calendar year of him being less than a 200 hitter. I mean, if he's what he's been in the last three weeks, then he's probably a top five third baseman.

Okay. All right. Let's finish up here on that. Let's go to our favorite sell high. The by those were Blake Snell and Jose Ramirez. Blake Sell for Scott and Jose Ramirez for Heath. Heath, who's your favorite sell high? I'm going to go with DJ LaMayhew,

who has been a fantastic story this season and one of the most productive hitters in fantasy. And like in almost every single way that you could imagine him being fortunate. He has been fortunate. We've seen a lot about his performance with runners and scoring position. That's why he has so many RBI.

He's got a 369 babbip. He's got a ton of infield hits. I just don't really buy it. His home run to fly ball ratio, the exact opposite of what we've seen with Jose Ramirez. He's at 15.8% this year, whereas he's an 8.5% over his career, which was entirely with half of his games at Coorsfield.

So I'm out on DJ the Mayhew. The question. Is Yankee Stadium a better home run park than Coorsfield? Because I, my interpret, my... Or a left-handed hitter, I'm sure it is. Or a right-handed hitter, I would doubt it. Okay. Because Coorsfield is...

True or false. Coorsfield is more of a Babbitt upgrade than a home run upgrade. Or no, is that not true? I think that's true. It's so weird to assess it with any other stadium because it changes the shape of pitches. And it just, it's hard to quantify how much easier it makes the pitches to hit. hit on top of, you know, how far the batted ball travels and how much outfield room there is

for it to land in. Right. I mean, I'm sure there is a way to look up how it raids versus other parks in terms of home runs and Babbitt. It's, I have to imagine it's a distant first in terms of Babbitt. Yes. Home runs. Some parks may be close.

For right-handed hitters, Coorsfield was the second best park last year for home runs with a park factor, according to fan graphs, of 113. Yankees Stadium was third at 108. Yankee Stadium is much better for left-handed home run hitters. And Adam, you were right, Rocky's Stadium, much better for singles with a park factor of 110 than any other part. Okay. All right, cool.

So, DJ LaMayhew, you guys both have LaMayhew ranked right around 12th at third base with guys, well, see, Eduardo Escobar. We're going to talk about him later, but Heath, you have him sixth. Yeah. Scott, you have, where's Escobar for you? Low, he's low. And that's intentional.

Wait a second. He's not in your top 40 at third base? Right. Wait, Escobar? No, he's in my top 20. Oh, he's 18. He's 18, he's 18, right? He's 18.

Yeah. Is he eligible second? I believe he just got second base eligibility. Today's going to be my big fix-the-rength. rankings after taking some time off day. So there are some names in there, like Tommy Lestella is still up there pretty high. Okay. But yes, I do intentionally have Eduardo Escobar lower than, I think, the average person would happen.

Is that, do you want to go into him as your favorite sell high, or is there someone else? Yeah. No, he's, Eduardo Escobar is my favorite sell high. Absolutely. None of his expected stats support his. his actual stats in any way. I do think, I mean, he's shown in past years there's some power here. Like he can be a plus fantasy contributor.

But the standout he's been this year, it just doesn't add up. There just isn't anything obvious that's changed for him. It feels like a guy who's really performed over his head for one half of play. You know, barely being inside the top 20 seems like a, a, a critique of his performance like I'm saying he's not good but basically every infield spot is just legitimately that deep

second base you know maybe he could push the top 12 for me if he did qualify there but the other three positions there are just so many other choices there that you know basically a 270 hitting 25 homer guy with a low OBP which is what I see

Escobar being just doesn't doesn't rate that high would you rather have Escobar or Cabin Vizio? I mean, I have to say Eskabar. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you do. I do feel like Vizio has more upside.

Would you know there have Eskabar or LaMahue? LeMayhew. Yeah, I think I'll take Escobar. Just to put this out there. Escobar, you know, I said 275 is what I see him hitting. His XBA is actually 250, so I'm actually giving him more credit than the expected stats. His actual Wobah's 373, expected Wobah 322. So that's how big of the gap we're talking about.

Today's sponsor is Seatgeek. If you want to go to a game and watch Eduardo Escobar, please use the Seatgeek app to get there or Seatgeek.com and use the promo code fantasy for $10 off your first purchase. Games, concerts, comedy, theater, whatever you want. Go to Seatgeek and use the code fantasy for $10 off. There's a strategy that I would like to try, and I wanted to get your thoughts because I want to try to do it mid-season here.

So we're in this Roto, Lee. Heath and I are out of it. I'm not conceding yet. You're out of it. I have best pitching in the league, and I've got 12 standings points in hitting. But I've got some hitters on the IL that I'm hoping you're going to change that. All right, well, you're out of it.

But fine, maybe you have a better outlook than I do. You have one half a point more than I do. I am in 10th and you're in 8th. So Scots in second, half a point out of first place. I want to try for the rest of the season to roster. or nothing but relief pitchers on my pitching staff. It would require some trades on my part. But I don't want to upset the balance of the league.

So, Scott, since you're clearly in contention, half a point out of first place, what do you think? Can I use this as an experiment? Because I actually think it's going to improve my team, and I want to see, you know, if it's worth doing into next year, you know? All RPs.

You're five by five. Be fine with you trying that. I'm fine with everybody trading right up until the trade deadline, even in a redraft league. I think, you know, even if it seems like you're out of it, there's a lot you can learn. Now, if you're, you know, making the kinds of trades, you know, that are sabotaging things. Like, it's just taking a completely flippant attitude to the whole thing and, like, giving players away who are obviously worth more than what you're getting for them. and that's, you know, that might be where you get into, I don't want to say a veto situation, but you're going to upset people.

Well, that's what I'm, I'm nervous about that because I feel like, I feel like if I trade a starting pitcher for a relief pitcher, it might feel like I'm losing. People are like, what are you doing? Like, why are you trading Lucas Filito for Josh Hater? I don't think, yeah, well, I mean, Josh Hater's so high end. I don't think, I don't think anybody, especially in a roto league.

I mean, Josh Hader, I probably have ranked ahead of all, but 25 starting pitchers, if that. Just going totally off the top of my head there. But so I think that's fine. I don't know if that's necessarily the best way to approach it. Like, I feel like everybody wants starting pitchers. And so I feel like if you're trading them to upgrade your hitting and then filling in your pitching staff with good ratings. ratio relievers. I mean, you probably want to make up ground in safes, too. I understand that.

But, you know, that'd be what I'm interested in crime. But obviously, it's your experiment. Yeah. I don't think anybody is going to really raise an eyebrow to trading any starting pitcher. But, you know, the most assured aces for Josh Hader. Scott, I have a trade offer on the table with the first place team, the team right in front of you, I give him Mike Trout. I give him Mike Trout, he gives me Max Scherzer. How would you feel about it? That's obviously a fair trade, but how would you feel about that if the number one team got Mike Trout gave up Scherzer? I would feel fine with it.

It's a fair trade. Good for the first place team for upgrading, if it even is an upgrade. I'm not totally sure it would be depending on where he, you know, rates in the category. worries that those two players are most likely to impact. All right, so we'll see if I can pull this RP strategy off, or maybe keep like one or two starters and the rest RPs. News and notes, Brad Peacock could be back on Monday. Jake Arietta is going to pitch through bonespurs in his elbow,

and he's not going to pitch well. Framber Valdez is expected to start tonight for Houston against Texas. Back in the rotation, is Framber Valdez Heathworth adding? Yeah, well, I already owned him in one league. It's a deeper format. I added him in a second league where I'm planning on starting him as a spark. It's a 10-day week and he's a two-start pitcher, I expect. He might be very interesting note here.

He might be a three-star pitcher. If, you know, assuming, and the default setting on CBS is to count these first four days after an All-Star break is its own separate week. So probably the majority of people listening are doing that. But obviously there isn't contingent listening that is lumping it together with the week beginning July 15th and making it an 11-day week. The Astros actually play 11 games in those 11 days. And Bramber Valdez, because of that, it looks like the only pitcher to me who has a shot at starting three games,

which makes them very interesting. Now, two of them would be against the Rangers, a terrific offense. Obviously, the last time we saw Valdez in the majors, the last couple starts didn't go very well. I do like the skill set. but for him to make three starts, obviously the first two have to go well, or he's getting back to the minors.

So it could be doubled the damage if you gamble on him being that three-start guy, and he pitches poorly and doesn't make three starts. Now, are you saying... He could be a three-star pitcher Framber Valdez, even if Brad Peacock enters the rotation again? Because I think he could if they take Arcite out. Yeah, I think it would take her kitty spot. Orkiti was, you know, really bad.

His first two starts. Yeah, right. Because they have 11 games in this stretch, right? Yes. Yeah. So I think there's room for both him and Peacock, right? Yes. Yeah.

Okay. All right. Brandon Lau could be back on Saturday. We're going to talk about him later. And the Atlantic League used robot umpires, which was basically the home plate umpire had an earpiece and was told if it was a baller. our strike and he relayed the call. He has the power to override the call.

For example, if a ball bounces in the dirt and then crosses the plate, it might be called a strike by the robot and the human ump can be like, no, not a strike. But he seems excited about robot umpires. I am fully here for robot umpires all the way around the diamond. I would prefer that there was not a human there

and it was an actual robot that was calling balls and strikes, but I will settle for this as a stepping stone. to get us to where we're going to eventually be. And you're okay with all these people losing their jobs potentially? I mean, they say that they're not going to replace the humans, that they're going to work in conjunction with the robots. But we can't believe that.

I think there will be more jobs created in building and maintaining the robots. Yeah, I'm going to give the opposite take on this. I think it's becoming kind of an unhealthy obsession with accuracy, like the way replay system works in baseball. slowing the game. That's already very slow to a halt for, you know, to see if a guy's foot came off the base. We won't need replay anymore. They'll always get it right. Yeah, right. I think we're years away from them always getting it right. But like it just what like it's supposed to be entertainment and like you're making it more sterile this way. Like the umpire interaction, you know, the way they they call strikes with own kind of flamboyant manner. Like it's, it all adds to the entertainment value.

I think it's too much, you know, too big a part of the foundation of the game. At the core of what, you know, it's always existed for. And I don't want to get rid of it for, you know, slight improvement in called strikes and balls. I disagree with so many things you just said. But instead of arguing, I am going to let a robot play a commercial right. We'll be right back on fantasy baseball today. Well, you didn't think that was all the buyer's sell we were going to talk about,

buy low, sell high. We got plenty more trade talk for you. I do have to remind you, though, about CBS Sports HQ. You can watch it in your living room. You may not be aware of that. But CBS Sports HQ, it's just like putting on the TV. You just need to have a connected device or a smart TV. You download the CBS Sports app.

You start watching HQ. It's all free. It's 24-7 sports coverage. There's smart analysis, highlights. Sports coverage is the way it used to be the way it should be. We're really committed to that kind of coverage. And we're on CBS Sports HQ, by the way, fantasy baseball today is Sunday from 3 to 6 p.m. Eastern. Download the CBS Sports app on your Roku, on your Apple TV, on your Amazon Fire, wherever, and just start watching HQ.

All right, Bilo, sell high. Scott, who are some of your Bailos? You gave me three. Heath gave me three. Go ahead and run through your list of Bilo candidates, sir. All right. So I'm going to start with Corey C. who got off to a very slow start this year, his first year back from Tommy John's surgery.

I feel like that's pretty typical for a guy coming back from that injury. You know, hitters tend to come back sooner from pitchers, but I remember how bad Glabertores was at the start of last year. Like, man, is this guy ever going to get to the majors? And eventually he took off. It looked like Corey Seeger was doing the same leading up to his most recent ankle injury that put him on the IL. Yeah.

Oh, yeah. He was so, he was, last 26 games before the ankle injury, he batted 354 with six home runs. He was crushing it. Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, walk-to-strikeout ratio has been great all year. It's basically just home run to fly ball rate has been down

in a year where everybody's pitchers hitter around the game is pretty much way up. But, you know, I think he's coming out of it and is going to be a stud probably from this point forward. The other two, I'll just rattle them off. here and you can tell me how much we want to talk about them. Vladimir Guerrero and Matthew Boyd, I'm calling a bylaw right now. Yeah, Guerrero we need to talk about.

What is it that you are seeing that makes him look like a bylaw? So, I mean, he kind of demonstrated it during the home run derby, right? Like, the guy doesn't have great numbers yet, but the way he hits the ball, he hits it so hard. Right? He, no other hitter. He's the only hitter in baseball this year with four batted balls of 115 miles or more. And he hasn't even been up all year. By the way, Aaron Judge is one of just a handful of three, and he's hardly played at all. But of course, he's Aaron Judge.

And I'm saying Vladimir Guerrero does similar things on contact. Now, what's really held him back is that he isn't elevating enough for those hard hit balls. But I think. I think that's going to be something that he figures out. And I think he's going to have a second half year, sort of like Ronald O'Cunia did last year when he first came up. Okay, this guy's pretty good. I don't know if he's a total stud in fantasy yet,

and then he just completely takes off. That's kind of what I see happening for Vladimir Guerrero, particularly given how deep third base is, I don't think you have to pay a premium for him on the trade market. Heath, what do you think? The only thing that worries me about him, I mean, first off, The X-Stats that we talked about with Eduardo Escobar earlier, they aren't a lot better for Vlad.

It does not look like he's really underperforming. He has hit some balls extremely hard. His hard hit rate is fine, but he's got an expected batting average of 261 and expected slugging of 432. That's not that far from where he's been so far this year. And then the other problem is the launch angle. He just cannot get the ball in the air.

And the launch angle is feeding those other stats, those other expected stats. But it's not a surprise. He's been a ground ball hitter. We talked about him on yesterday's show. I mean, he's a ground ball hitter in the minors. But if you look at his batted ball profile in terms of hard contact rate, ground ball rate, fly ball rate on fan grabs, it's very similar to Juan Soto. It's just his home run to fly ball rate is so much lower. And, you know, is there an explanation for that?

Because Soto, we were a little worried about, man, can he can he do this again with all those ground balls? and he's having a really good year. He's been amazing. So, you know. This is less, I mean, other than the fact, you know, the exit velocity stat I gave, the high point of his exit velocities, this is less a stat about the data supporting that he hasn't, that he's better than he's actually been, then I know how good he can be. And there's enough evidence there for me to bet on him taking a step forward that is

isn't reflected in the expected stats and, you know, potentially a huge step forward. And Adam, just to answer your question, last year with the Juan Soto and this year especially, but last year Soto had a 484 expected slugging percentage, to about 50 points higher than what Vlad's at this year. This year it's at 512. His hard hit rate has been considerably better both years. His hard hit rate's been considerably better than Vlad's? Than Vlad's, yeah. Yeah.

I mean, average exit velocity for Vladimir Guerrero isn't that hot. I'm saying at the high end, he's shown that when he really gets into a ball, he hits it harder than anybody. Yeah, as he sure, he's very good against batting practice fastballs. Okay, I just, let me just, for my own education here. Because I thought Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero had basically the same hard contact rate. I'm looking at baseball savant, so I don't know what you're looking at. So we're looking at different things.

Yeah. Baseball savant, fan graphs, Juan Soto's hard contact rate last year on fan graphs, 34.8% this year, 36.6%. So right around, let's just call it 35.5. Right? That's basically what Vladimir Guerrero is. So what is it that baseball savant? Vladimir's actually higher, 37.4% hard contact rate.

What is it that baseball Savant is measuring that Fangraphs is not? I don't know the answer to that for sure. It feels like to me it is less likely for a hard hit ground ball to be hard hit on baseball savon. But I don't know that. I really don't. Okay, I'll ask Chris. And Scott's last by-law is Matt Boyd, Matt Boyd, who's given up 12 home runs. runs with a 603 ERA in his last six starts, but five walks to 54 strikeouts and 34 and a third.

So we'll let Heath get to his bylaws, but you feel confident in a turnaround here for Boyd. Yeah, I think, and look, he had some home run regression coming. He overperformed what should have been his home run rate at the start of the year, but it's kind of gone back the other way here recently, and his ERA's been rising. It's been a few starts in a row. And I feel like there's a good chance the Matthew Boyd owner may be panicking even though strike out to walk ratio

is still phenomenal. And I think on top of that there's a good chance he gets traded, possibly to the Astros. They've been closely linked to him, which would be an amazing upgrade in terms of supporting cast. And we've seen what the Astros

have been able to do to pitchers even beyond that. So yeah, I'm very excited about the prospect of Boyd being having a much better second half than first half, which is really saying something because it was a great first half. Okay. Does it matter to you, though, that he is 336 ERA at home, 444 on the road?

Not really. Okay. He's actually giving up more home runs at home. All right. Heath, your bylaws, Jose Ramirez, and? Fangraphs has a really fun tool where you can go to the advanced pitcher leaderboard and look at ERA minus FIPP leaders. There's only one pitcher in.

baseball whose FIP is a full run higher than his ERA so far this season. That would be Zach Wheeler with a 4, 6, 9 ERA, and all of his other peripherals show a sub 4 ERA pitcher. His walk rate is actually down this year from where it was last year. The strikeouts are actually up. I expect Wheeler to be a very solid top 30 starting pitcher for the rest of the season. Yes. We've been saying it for a long time.

His last start was so bad, but before that it looked like he had really turned things around with three very good starts at the Cubs, at the Phillies, and home against the Yankees. And Sonny Gray, 80% owned. Very interested to see what he does in terms of his curveball in his next start because he just came off his best start, eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts against the Brewers, where he threw his curveball 53% of the time, did not throw a slider or a change-up. And that was interesting. But you have Sunny Gray as a by-low.

Yeah, and I don't know that he can be a lot better in. terms of like ERA or strikeouts than he's been so far, but I would expect it to translate to better fantasy production in the second half. Highest strikeout rate of his career, highest ground ball rate of his career. He's not walking as many people as he was last season. I think Sunny Gray is going to be very good. Not quite top 30, but definitely someone you should run out there and start every week. By the way, Chris said,

Baseball savant is just measuring exit velocity. Fangraphs takes into account trajectory as well. Fan graphs uses baseball info solutions. Okay. So having said that, which one feels like a more reliable rate, or should we just factor both in it? It sounds like the opposite of what Heath was saying, right?

Where it's, you know, ground balls often have high exit velocity, and it sounds like the pure, exit velocity would be rewarding that more than fan graphs hard hit rate is, which seems backwards because fan graphs data makes Vladimir Guerrero look better in that regard. Yet he's hitting too many groundball. I don't know. That's weird. Okay, well, I'm confused.

What about these guys as bylaws? I guess we can call this bylaw or heck no. Paul Goldschmidt, who is coming off his best week, probably, 364 with two home runs, three walks, seven strikeouts, two doubles last week. You know what's amazing about Paul Goldschmidt? He has nine doubles this season. He has nine doubles and no triples in 88 games. So, by lower, heck no, I'm Paul Goldschmidt.

I'm saying heck no. I wrote just before the break my latest dynasty update where I give five players who've gained value in dynasty, five lost value in dynasty five, prospects who've gained, and it's meant to be more of a long-term focus. And I put Goldschmidt as somebody who's definitively lost dynasty value. It's possible he's better in the second half than he was in the first half, but I don't think we're, I think he's at an age,

and I think we've seen enough worry signs over the, worrisome signs over the past couple years that I don't, I don't think we're going to regard him as an elite first two rounds kind of type of hitter again. I think he's probably more than his great range. Yeah, I don't think he has top three or upside anymore at first base. The speed is just gone. and he's slower. That's probably why the triples are gone.

He's not even attempting to run. Strikeouts are up a little bit. I do think still that you could buy low if someone doesn't view, like if someone thinks that what you've gotten from Paul Goldschmidt is all you're going to get the rest of the year. I think he'll be better in the second half, but it's more of a top five to top eight first baseman instead of a top three option.

Matt Carpenter, buy low or heck no? I'll say by low, with the understanding it should be very low. Like he is close to getting waived, I think, and his standard makes him close to getting dropped. And I think the bat at ball profile makes him out to be better than that. And you're gambling on, you know, you're kind of taking a, you're kind of buying a lottery ticket by trading for him now, where you're not giving up that much for him. And he could be an MVP caliber bat in the second half potentially. But, you know, it's less than a 50-50 chance at that. Okay.

I can't buy low on him because he's on all of my teams. and it's terrible. Michael Conforto, I would think, I would call Michael Conforto a bylaw. He's just so streaky. He's batting 108 in his last 11 games. That's a 371 OPS for Conforto.

Before that, he had an 898 OPS. I still think he's very good. So I would say yes on Conforto. How about you? I hadn't noticed he was in that deep of a slump, so I had not been that concerned about him. I would imagine the Babbitt during that strict. Retch is insanely low.

Let's look it up. 167 and last 16, you said? Or longer than that? 11. It's a 179, Beth. Yeah. Well, he's also been playing with a little bit of a back issue.

But that hasn't been the whole time. I'm just going to say yes. I'm just going to say yes on that one. I don't really care what you guys say. We're almost a 2000 career plate appearances, and it kind of seems like we know what Michael Confirre is. No, see, that I don't agree with. With a low to mid-800 OPS.

I don't quite agree with that. And, okay, fine. So you might be right, 100%. My opinion is injuries have sort of held him back. Last year, he was coming off of shoulder surgery, and he was terrible before the All-Star break. And he himself, Conforto, said, I came back too soon. In the second half of 2018, he had an 895 OPS.

In 2017, his OPS, I think, was over 900. So I don't think we know who he is. I think he had a 939 OPS in 2017. I don't think we know who he is. You might be right, but I do think there's a chance. He's not an elite hitter, but not far from it. And like I said, he had... 900 OPS guy.

He had a 900 OPS before this 11-game stretch. Yeah, I think there's a chance he's like a poor man's Juan Soto. Maybe that's not helpful. I mean that in a good way. Like, good-on-based percentage. You know, not going to have elite power, but... for everything else he does, it's perfectly acceptable power.

I just, I think it's going to depend also on whether he can actually hit lefties. Yeah. Because it kind of looked like he was making progress against him. He's been bad against them again this year. It's going to be hard to be a 900 OPS guy if he's a 650 OPS against lefties. Oh, yeah.

And you know I was going to bring that up because I, there's not one left-handed hitter in baseball that I talk about without looking at his lefty, righty splits. Okay, Justin Turner. So, this is weird. Justin Turner, he's got the fourth highest hard contact rate in baseball, according to Phaegraps. I don't know about baseballs of odd.

But Justin Turner, fourth highest hard contact rate, and he has the lowest home run to fly ball rate among the top 35 hitters in hard contact rate. So if you look at the top 35 in hard contact rate, he's fourth, but the lowest home run to fly ball rate. However, that home run to fly ball rate is pretty consistent with what he's been in the past. Granted, his hard contact rate is up, so you think it'd be a little higher. But only 10 home runs so far, only 14 doubles and half a season for Justin Turner, 82 games. You know, I just think he's going to be better. I think 294 and 10 home runs. I think he could be more like 315 and 12 home runs in the last 70 games or something like that, you know. I think he's a quasi-bileau because he's been good.

but certainly not great. Yeah. Yeah, I'd buy low on him. And I think you legitimately could because he's probably somebody's backup third basement right now, just the depth at the position. Okay, that is...

So yeah, I agree with that. Like the power, the lack of power in an environment, I think that's the first use of that phrase in the show. In an environment where everybody's powers up doesn't make a lot of sense. Okay, that's just the... His average... Exit velocity is the highest it's been over the last five years.

His expected batting average is the highest it's been. As expected slugging percentage is the second highest it's been. You should be much better. What a great call by me. Justin Turner. Two pitchers. You Darvish and Jose Barrios. I'll explain both.

Darvish, I'm going to say no. But I'm going to bring it up because I'm seeing something that reminds me a little bit of Brandon Woodruff and Brandon Woodruff's first seven starts. Brandon Woodruff did not have one quality start in his first seven starts, but he was flirting with quality starts. Five innings, three runs, six innings, four runs. Those are just kind of in the ballpark. I don't know if those are actually his numbers.

Darvish has been similar over his last seven starts, during which time he has a 450 ERA, 44 strikeouts to 11 walks, which is good in 42 innings. Big difference between Darvis and that stretch for Woodruff is he's giving up a lot of home runs and Woodruff didn't. But I feel like Darvish, is close to turning the corner. I don't really have faith in it because of the home runs,

but I could see why someone would buy low or heck no on you, Darvish. Can I just pick him up when somebody drops him? I'm not going to, I don't have the guts to drop him. Yeah, I mean, it's certainly possible that's around the corner for him. I have bought low on you Darvish. It was in a 15-team league where he wasn't going to get dropped. I'm not missing what I gave up. It was Clint Frazier and some fab dollars,

and yet just by having Darvish in my lineup during that time, it's been a net negative. So if you have the discipline to bench him, even if he has like an odd good start, not activate him right away, wait for a stretch where he has a few in a row and you're really trusting he's back on track. That's fine.

But obviously you have to buy. You should be buying really low. I think we need to recognize that like the upside is probably a high three ZRA. that what happened back in 2012 through 2014 does not exist anymore. Right, but a high-3 ZRA with more than a strikeout per inning is certainly something worth. A five and a half innings per se? A lot of ace-level pitchers haven't expected ERA in the high breeze right now.

He could be right-handed Robbie Ray. It could be, except he's got 11 walks in his last seven starts. Robbie Ray is 11 walks in his last seven innings. Hey-oh. Okay. He's averaged like 4.6 walks per nine over the last two years, so I think it's pretty similar. It could be.

It could be. I'm encouraged by the lack of walks. I'm discouraged by the increase in home runs. Jose Barrios, we're talking by low on like an ace scale here, because it depends how much you believe in him. I mean, his last three starts, he's got 10 strikeouts in 19 and a third with 7% swinging strike rate. He had a three-star stretch in May with a 7%

swinging strike rate. And then at his next four starts, he had a 190-80-R-A and 30 strike-outs in 27-and-a-third with 14-spanking strike rate. So Burrios is just like Conforto, a streaky pitcher. If you like Burrios, this is your chance to get him maybe at his low point because he's, you know,

he's good. We know that he's good. No, I don't. I was actually tempted to call him a sell high. The only reason I didn't is because I'm not comfortable selling high on any starting pitcher who's giving you ace caliber production because they're so rare and there's not great. The options to backfill there are not very good. But he's a bad strikeout pitcher and

has been all year. His strengths are basically really good control and he's allowed to pitch deep into games consistently. That's what really stands him apart from the rest. But his, like his ex-fips 434, because the strikeout rate really isn't that good. And there's not a lot of evidence that it's going to get better. I mean, it's not bad. I guess over calling him a bad strikeout pitcher. is probably overstating it. But 8 per 9 is 8K per 9 innings is definitely less than you expect from a pitcher of his caliber. I think if we have this conversation in a month, it might be closer to 9, though. That's just, it might be like 8.5.

Every time I've checked this year, it's been less than one per inning, which is just not something you see from pitchers of his stature. You know, unless they're elite ground ball guys, and he's not that. So, yeah, I'm a little concerned that he's in for a bumpy second half. I've mostly been the Jose Barrios guy, I think, over the last three years, and I'm terrified of how good he's been so far. I'm not selling high. I've enjoyed it. But he's in a lot of ways pitched worse than he did last year.

Well, he might be benefiting from the AL Central, which I think is getting better. I mean, I think Cleveland's lineup's getting better and Chicago's lineup is not a cakewalk. But his last five series of the season for Burrios at Cleveland, home against Chicago, Royals at Detroit, at Kansas City. So I do think he'll benefit for some good matchups.

A lot of our leagues are going to be over by the time you get to the last two. That's true. Last three. Yeah, I'm not saying Cleveland and Chicago are tough matchups. I just just not layups anymore. All right, so let's, all right, you know what? that's interesting. Glad I brought it up. I said buy low on Jose Burrios. He says no. Hold, basically. Scott says he was going to be a sell high, but you know, you don't want to give away anybody who can pitch like an ace.

So they're obviously not agreeing with my take, which is fine. Which is fine. You know, I could call him a sell high as long as you're getting another ace caliber pitcher in return. I guess it's probably, you know, rather than just don't trade him under any circumstances. That's what I'd want in return. All right. We got to do the actual sell highs much faster. guys. Heath, your three sell highs. Well, one of them's DJ LeMayhu. Who are your other two? It's a couple of starting pitchers and right in that Jose Vrrios range for some people. I don't think

people should actually put Mike Soroka in that range, but I would not expect him to have an ERA anywhere close to 242. In fact, if you move the numbers around and said 4-2-2, that might be closer to my expectation for the second half. We talk about

Jose Brrios not being a good strikeout pitcher. Soroka has not been at all and was not last year in the major leagues. He was pretty decent in AAA. Before that and the minors had been kind of spotty. He has good control. He's gotten a ton of ground balls so far this year. I'm not sure I'd expect it to maintain at 57%.

Even if it does, I think he's a mid-3s ERA starting pitcher. And I don't feel confident that he's going to be in the rotation for the rest of the season just because of how many innings that he pitched last year, which was almost none. And then the other one's Luis Castillo. I did not like it. I don't like it.

Chris Towers told me he was putting him in his bust column. But there's no question for second half bus. He absolutely deserves to be in that column. The walk numbers have been out of control. Yeah, they have. It's weird, though. It's weird. I could

see that turning around. Well, he's never been We've got three years of Luis Castillo, and he's never been the same guy twice. But he's got more walks this year than he had last year, and it's 53 and two-thirds fewer innings. Well, last year he didn't have the strikeouts. Or the ground ball. He's an elite ground ball pitcher who strikes guys out. He's got amazing stuff. I mean, yes, 229 ERA is going to be worse in the second half, almost assuredly.

Is it going to be higher than 329? I will take the under. I think he has an ERA below 330. If you're asking from this point forward, does he have an area below 330? I definitely take the over. I'll take the under. Scott, what do you think on Castillo? I think it's a good over under.

I would take, I'll take slightly under because I'm counting on some skills improvement there from a guy who hasn't been this bad of a control pitcher, really at any other point in his career. And he's been better. He was better leading up to the break. The last few starts was looking a little better. I will point out, A, Chris seemed to go the ultra provocative route with that column. And when you read the actual descriptions of some of the players, it doesn't sound like he's that low on them. And B, in the case of Soroka, well, I do think he's one of the clearer sell high candidates.

His ex-Pip is 369 versus Barrios is 435, just to put it, you know, he's a worse strikeout pitcher than Burrios, but that's what a ground ball rate can do for a guy. and Alex Anthopoulos says he's not really in favor of shutting guys down because of innings situations. He pointed to examples with the Blue Jays and with the Dodgers during his time with both of those organizations where it backfired and he just, you know, they shut him down and they got hurt anyway. So he says he's not a big believer in that. I'm skeptical that he's going to, I'm sure he has a breaking point too, but it doesn't sound like he's a hardliner with that. Okay, so, Scott, your two cell highs other than Eduardo Escobar. So I don't love my other two, which hopefully I'll make this a quicker conversation.

But I went with Austin Riley and Brandon Lau. The reason I don't love them is because I feel like they've already regressed to a point that I don't know how great the return's going to be. but they do have good stats, in Riley's case, on a per game basis. And I feel like those stats are going to continue to get worse. Brandon Lau, I'm amazed his batting averages still as high as it is, considering he has a 35% strikeout rate, which is Joey Gallo territory.

Not surprising when Gallo hits 205 with that number. And he has more power than Lowe. And then Riley, I mean, the strike gets to walk ratio is terrible for him, too. So, yeah, I think they're both going to get worse. What about these guys? Would you sell Chris Paddock? Well, are you worried about innings limits with Chris Paddock or Brandon Woodruff? Um, to it, I mean, any, any time you get a pitcher who's at the very start of his career, I worry about it.

Yeah. At Paddock, I mean, it's obvious. They've already been. making adjustments for that. They send him down to the minors for a stretch. He's not going to make it through the end of the season. I think that's a guarantee. Woodruff, I'd have to take a closer look at.

I know he spent some time at the bullpen last year. He's had some injuries in recent years that have kept the innings down. But he's also 26. So I'm not sure. I'll tell you. You know, the Brewers are playing for a lot and he's their best pitcher, so I'm not sure. Did throw 158 in 2016, just 113 last year. I would guess Woodruff's going to be okay to get to like 160 to 180,

which is a little bit of a problem, but I don't know that it will affect, it depends on how they want to do it. Okay, let me tell you my- If they don't acquire a starting pitcher at the break, I don't see how they can shut them down. Like, they don't have another good pitcher apart from him. No, they could give him a two-week break, though.

Yeah, they could. Yeah. They need them for the playoffs, that's bottom line. Let me tell you my favorite, so high, Dallas Kichel. And I don't need to go into it. His last three starts has been really, really good, though, except his strikeout rate is pathetic. Twelve strikeouts and 25 innings. But I talk about Dallas Kikl enough. You all know how I feel about him.

And a start against the Marlins, that's the perfect time to sell high on Dallas Kikl after a start against the Marlins. This week's rotation, if you are playing the three-day week, some guys you could look at for a start if you're just trying to get extra starts. because it's possible you don't have a full rotation for this week. Framber Valdez tonight at Texas. Jason Vargas at Miami, he has not been that bad. He usually limits the runs, but doesn't pitch that deep into games. I like Danny Duffy against Detroit. 33% own.

First time he faced Detroit, it was seven innings of two runs with seven strikeouts. He walked five in his last start, but Duffy, when he's had good matchups, has actually been pretty solid this year. So I'm simply just talking about picking some guy up for this week because you need extra points in your lineup or extra six. stats. I don't really like Adam Wainwright against Arizona, but he's available. Mike Fires has been on this role, and he's got the White Sox at home.

Mike Leak, Mike Leak, seven or more innings, three or fewer earn runs, and five of his last seven starts, but two of his last three starts have been terrible. You could think about Mike Leak. I don't think I'd have the Stones. Andrew Heaney against Seattle, again, risky. He hasn't been very good. The Nelson LeMette against Atlanta. I'm not sure I expect more than five. innings, and the Braves are awesome, but just some names for it. There's a reason why they're available in a lot of leagues. John Means against Tampa Bay.

Zach Gallen against the Mets. He has not pitched six innings yet, but he will get the Mets. Merrill Kelly at St. Louis. St. Louis, by the way, is 23rd in run scored. They are in between Toronto and Kansas City and runs scored so far this season. So that's Merrill Kelly at St. Louis. And finally, some guy I would not trust, but I could see being useful in the second half. If he just gets back on track, he's been awful since coming off.

the IL. Trevor Williams, 65% owned. He's at the Cubs. I don't know if there's any names. They're in the notes, guys, that jump out of you? Check the site for more. I just wrote a column last night. It might be up already. Top 10 sleeper pitchers for the short fantasy week 16.

If yours is only going with that four-day period. And yeah, you may obviously have to turn to some one-star sleepers because there are no two-star guys. And all your roster pitchers may not be making a start. So seven of the names you mentioned are on that list of 10. So check out the ones that, check to see the ones that aren't and the three that Adam didn't mention. On the Zach Gallin situation, have we heard what the Marlins plan is with their rotation?

Are they going six, six man for the foreseeable future? They haven't sent anybody down, so that's my guess. When I, as of late last night, they hadn't declared who's starting those three games. I'm not confident Gallen is But he is on my list of 10 Just in the hope he does make this guy I hope the people watching the video Can hear the music

Because I'm dancing to the regulator's music It's time to regulate All right Matt from Coral Springs, Florida My hometown So Matt is Is bringing up an old regulator segment where two owners

And two fantasy owners in a league Made a bet That had nothing to do with fantasy One of them was a pitcher I forget it was like Independent League If I misrepresented in this email, I want to regulate Matt. Okay, all right, all right.

I'll read it. So one of the guys was a pitcher in like an independent baseball league, Heath, maybe, or minor leagues or something. I think it was independent leagues. College, I believe. You were close. Oh, it's college? He said all the things but the right thing. Okay, okay.

It was college. So one of the guys said to him, if you throw a complete game shutout, I will forfeit my fantasy head-to-head matchup with you. Of course, the guy goes out and throws a complete game shutout. I said, you got to honor the bet and forfeit that matchup. Heath, what did you say? I said you cannot, this guy says I sat on the fence. I didn't sit on the fence.

I said, as a commissioner, you can't enforce things that happen outside of the context of the league. You can't go and take someone's points away because of a bet they made outside of the league. Scott, what do you think should have happened there? Do you think the bet should have been honored

and the weak should have been forfeited by the guy who lost the bet? No. They were, they were, They were wagering something they don't have ownership of. It was him. He was wagering him going out and throwing a complete game shutout. And then he went and did it.

And he won a fantasy week because of it, basically. Yeah. No, you can't do that. If you go out and throw a complete game shutout, that's amazing. No. No, I would understand, Adam, if what you are saying is the guy who made that bet should have honored the bet and forfeited. I that's that's a reasonable take maybe that's where I'm sitting on the fence but there is a no universe in which the commissioner should go take those points away and say that he forfeited

oh so you okay so you that's oh by the way we like what if it's what if it's some you know knucklehead giving the first place team a free win like that's not going to sit well with the rest of the league that's not what they signed up for all right fine fine I'll take my L on that one we have a new regulators drop by the way from one of our three-year-old listeners, so please enjoy it, everybody. Sorry, I'll play it again. There you go. Okay. All right, let's go back to the actual regulation.

This is from Kevin and Charlotte, Dear, Buzzcutt, Van Driesen, and Mick Vicker. I have no idea who they are. I'm a commissioner of a 10-team league I took over in its second season. Unfortunately, it grants league member veto rights on trades. Insert Heath's eye here. And there you go. and the majority of team owners support this horrible idea. Needless to say, we've had a few trades over our seven-year history vetoed for ridiculous reasons. By the time you read this, there'll probably be another one.

So, I'm trying to get the... Okay, whatever. Here are the details. A friend and I are both fed up with our underperforming teams. Okay, this is funny. The current eighth and ninth ranked teams. We decided to add some excitement into our seasons and basically trade our entire rosters, with the exception of four players that we feel like we're both going nowhere this season. So we traded our entire team except for four players.

I kept Scher, Mondes, Evado, and Brendan McKay. He kept Lindor, Bauer, Carlos Santana, and Jason Kipness, because he's an Indian team. Is this a jerk move by two owners fed up with their crappy teams that deserves to have their trade vetoed, or is this just another case of my leaguemates being haters because they're not involved in such an epic deal? Please regulate.

I say veto. It's anti-competitive. It's... Yeah. There should be no vetoes. In your league. You can't trade a retired team. I would do.

I would veto those guys from being in your league and go find some cooler guys to be in a league with. Well, that might be what you... I mean, you've made the case before that if you're going to veto a trade, you should kick the guys out. I mean, this is... And I don't know, like, it'd be easier if we saw everybody they were trading, and maybe it really is just a balanced trade that involves 22 plays. or whatever, but, yeah, it seems like a very flippant attitude to something that everybody else is taking seriously, and you don't want guys like that. Like the idea behind having no vetoes is you're not going to have any saboteurs in your lead.

All right, guys, we have like four minutes left and I want to get two more regulators in. So, this is from Concern Commission. Dear Diary, I've lost a GM in my league because I vetoed a trade he was involved in. He traded Martin Perez for Raphael Devers. Not that lopsided, I know, but the problem, though, diary, is that Devers happens to be one of the best players on a team that's 1, 12, and 1, hasn't made a transaction since April 24th, doesn't fix his roster, has six starters on the IL with four open IL slots.

So he randomly logs in and accepts a trade when he hasn't been active since April? Oh, and while he was logged into accept the trade, he still didn't fix his team. So I called Fow on Vito the Trade. Now the owner that would have received ever Is mad and quit the league. Did I do wrong? This is a money league. I'm responsible for upholding the integrity of the league.

Yes, you are. And if you were really taking your responsibility seriously upholding the integrity of the league, this owner wouldn't have still been in the league. Or he would have been fixing his lineup and you wouldn't have this problem. This is exactly why I say, if you're going to veto trades, you should kick people out of the league. So fine. This guy should not be in your league. league.

Oh. No, you're like, you oversimplify things. It doesn't work that way. You can't just kick everyone out of the league. And, so let's say you are... You kick this guy out of the league.

So, fine, fine. Kick him out of the league. Refund his money. But also veto the trade. You have to veto this trade. This trade cannot go through. Yeah. All right, good.

It's been regulated. One more. I guess start the music over. Here we go. Damn it. It's so bad on the, on the iPad today. From Caleb. Twelve team keeper points.

league, we also have 11 of the 12 owners in a football keeper league. I recently have made a cross-league trade that has sent shockwaves through the league. I as a contender acquired Mike Trout for $75 for my, for my Levi-on-Bell for $8. This is not the first cross-league trade in the history of these leagues and is even the second one this season. But given the fact that Mike Trout was involved, baseball owners are in an uproar because they're more passionate about the baseball league than the football league. They're saying this should be reversed and these trades should be outlawed.

Even though 11 of the 12 owners have the same opportunities to make these types of trade, we are being treated as if we compromise the integrity of the league. What say you? Mike Trout for Levi-on-Bell, should it be overturned? You guys have 30 seconds they answer. I've never played in such a league. I don't like these kinds of leagues for this reason. They're separate competitions.

So why are we risking them in this way? like risking the throwing off the balance in this way. If it's established that they're allowed, it should be allowed. Yep. If you've allowed these in a past, with Levi-on Bell being an $8 keeper, this was not egregious enough to overturn. I understand completely if you want to get rid of this, but get rid of it at the end of the season

and not because of a trade you don't like. Okay. Well, there you go. There you have it. The fantasy regulators have spoken. And we are out of here. Tomorrow we're going to have a guest on joining us. Dane Martinez from the Fantasy Sports Network.

And we'll talk some more trade. We'll see about some innings limits, some bullpen stuff, most added list. We'll get you all set to get your lineups ready, even though there's a stupid game tonight. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Baseball today.