Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/11: Worryometer; Bregman Breakout (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 11, 2018

A lot to cover from yesterday's games including Wil Myers' unbelievable streak (1:20) and if anything has changed in his profile, how excited you should be about Enyel De Los Santos (3:45) and Stephen Piscotty (4:24) and a lot of Alex Bregman talk (10:50). Is Bregman a legit power hitter now? ... Some deep league steals options (19:05) and SPs you can pick up (20:30) including Tyler Anderson and Marcus Stroman. Also, more players who are struggling but may be too good to drop (25:35) ... Worryometer Wednesday (28:40)! Our thoughts on Clayton Kershaw, Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo and a few others. We also have a spirited debate about Jose Berrios' value (40:00), cover more from yesterday and grade your trades (53:00) before previewing today's games (57:40) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Croutly drinks of cola. A bunch of podcast wisdom seekers. Big ten times a day. Wires will not stop homering. Meanwhile, Jose Ibrahim will not start homering. We've got both good and bad today on Worryometer Wednesday on the Fantasy Baseball today podcast. And we have Chris Towers, who we talked a little trash about yesterday. He is here to hear this trash talk in person.

Hey, Chris? Well, it's a good thing I didn't listen to yesterday's podcast then. And if you say anything cross about me, I will fly to New York and I will fight you. Chris Cross. How about that? Okay, fine. I won't say it necessarily about you. Wait, no, tell me.

Tell me. You just have to defend your James and Tione is as good as Jose Perrios thing. Oh, okay. Yeah. Sure. That's easy. That's all. And hi, Scott.

How you doing? Hey, Adam. So nice to see you and hear from you again on this fine Wednesday morning. Very fine. And listen, a lot to talk about from yesterday. Aniel de Los Santos had a pretty good Major League Day debut. Stephen Piscotti has now homered in four straight games. He's 35% owned and has a 949 OPS since June 1st. We're going to talk about Alex Bregman, both this year and next year. We'll run through the news and notes.

Ken Giles was terrible again. And let's get started with Tuesday standouts. And of course, it has to be Will Myers. In his last four games, he is seven for 17 with six home runs, including a three homer game. he is now batting 298 since his 2013 rookie season he has not hit higher than 259 are you guys seeing anything from will myers to suggest that this is more than just a hot street he's obviously a good player but is he uh doing something different or is this just a really nice week or four days from will Myers he is striking out significantly less at least compared to last year and similar to two years ago and he had his best season in the majors.

I mean, it's mostly just he needed to start hitting at some point, and he finally has, and it's mostly a hot streak, I think, but it's a hot streak for a good player. Ironically, he does have the highest swinging strike rate of his career. He is swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone than he ever has. I don't know if that's necessary. I think he's, I think he's Will Myers. I think he's Will Myers who's locked in right now. Like all of the peripheral stats that we look at as far as the bat of ball data, it looks elite.

Like, he hasn't hit an infield fly ball yet this year. He's got a 53% hard contact rate. Pop-up. They're called pop-ups. Yes. Infield fly ball. Very low, very low soft contact rate. He also only played 28 games.

So that's, all right. Yeah. So Will Myers is like what in your first base or outfield rankings? I've probably moved him too wildly this season because before this recent stretch where he's homered, you know, where he's homered every day, it seems like, I had dropped him outside of the top 15 at first base, even in Roto, and I think outside of the top 40 outfielders. But he's now back in the top 30 in Roto, and about not too far behind that in points. Okay, so would you rather have Eric Hosmer or Will Myers?

Myers. Yeah, for sure. Let's talk about Enel De Los Santos. He's 18%-O and should it be owned in more leagues. Six and a third. Five hits, three runs, three walks, and six strikeouts, and he only allowed one run through six innings. Ran into some trouble in the seventh, got removed.

After allowing one run in the seventh and another run scored, it was charged to him. Whatever. Anyway, a good start for Dealo Santos at the Mets. Is he going to start again? I actually didn't see. He's 18% own. No, he's supposed to get sent down with Belasquez coming back. But we know he's next in line now, and there's reason to be encouraged when he gets the call again, which I'm sure we'll eventually happen.

Okay, so we'll keep an eye on De LaSanto's, not a must-own, 18% own. And I'm just going to say, you guys can do the standouts after this unless I'm taking all of them. Are we buying in yet, Scott? Are we buying into Stephen Piscotti? Four straight games with the homer. I don't think Steven Piscotti is a player who can be carried by home runs. I don't understand your... I'd rather see multi-hit games.

I don't understand your Stephen Piscotti lukewarmness. Like, he was legitimately good his first two seasons. So not necessarily, like, three outfielder relevant, at least in his second season. But... He had one really good season. I really like the skill set. But it was a season where he hit 22 home runs with an 8.00. OPS. Sure. It was, I mean, 22 home runs in today's environment, unless you're exceptionally good at something else, that's only going to make you kind of useful. It's not going to make you somebody we really need to get excited about. And maybe he'll be a useful player from this point forward. But I don't know that I... It's all better than it was.

in 2016 for what it's worth. He has a higher line drive rate by far the best hard contact rate of his career, best soft contact rate of his career. So I like the comment. I agree he's not a superstar and there's

no path for him to become a superstar or even just a regular old star, a plane star. So if the argument is that there are guys who have more upside, a Michael Conforto or something, I think that makes sense, but Piscotti, I think he's an above average hitter across the board.

And as we saw in 2016, he can become better than the sum of his parts. Yeah, if you need to win now, you need to drop Conforto for Piscotti, but if you're just stashing someone, then no, you don't have to do that. Right, yeah, I have no problem using Piscotti as a hot handplay. I just don't want to pin any real hopes to him.

Okay, yeah, that's fair. He's 35% owned. My last one, we had done this comparison a couple weeks ago. Would you rather have Stephen Piscati or Randall Gritchick? Well, Randall Gritchin hasn't done much for the last couple of weeks, so I'll go to Stephen Scott. I think Randall Gritchick has a skill set that is more conducive to success in fantasy when things are going well. He also has a much lower floor. Yeah.

Okay. So coming up on today's show, we've... We got Wariometer for a bunch of infielers, Abraeu, Rizzo, Hosmer, Travis Shaw, Mike Mustakis, and then we have Marcelo Zuna as well. And a lot of them have one big thing in common. They are lefties, and they are struggling against lefties. And you wonder if the shift is really changing baseball, you know, a lot now, but I'll let you guys weigh in on that. We're going to talk about Alex Bregman shortly.

And Chris is going to talk about Tion and Burrios. That's great. Oh, yeah. also it's Wednesday so not really about teaching though did you hear the word school school yard did you hear the word school

Adams Adams having to stretch it big time stretch that actually came from a listener suggestion because I was just stumped I am running out of ideas and I didn't want listener suggestions but it is great the trade day and the word school was in the song who else stood out to you guys on Tuesday What about Eric Lauer? Do we have any interest in Eric Lauer, the best pickoff man in baseball?

Have you just seen his pickoff numbers? No, but I think he has nine. He has nine. What? No. He had five in a row, I believe, was a major league record, five games in a row. He has one in each of the last two games. And that's, I mean, that's more trivia than anything, especially from a fantasy perspective.

But it does matter. Like, he's probably allowed. I don't know, 112, 120 base runners. That's like, that's basically taking 5% of his base runners off the basis. It's not nothing. Yeah. But over his last eight starts since June 1st, he got off to an absolutely miserable start. I think he had two starts at Cores early on or something.

He had a really tough schedule. But over his last eight, he has a 233 array. Not a ton of strikeouts, but he's kind of interesting. Yeah, kind of interesting is probably as far. far as I'd take it. He was obviously dominant yesterday against the Dodgers and had another kind of isolated good start against the Dodgers earlier this year. But even during this stretch that's been good, like you said, Chris, there haven't been a lot of strikeouts. There've been several sub-s, six-inning starts. I would say, did you say it was an eight-start stretch or a

seven-star stretch? The last eight starts. There have only been two great starts that that made me take a second look at him and wonder if this was a guy worth picking up during that eight-star stretch. Okay. Yeah, so Lauer is 10% owned. So why does he do well against the Dodgers? Well, look at this quote.

It's the Dodgers, man. Nobody likes the Dodgers. You want to get them a little more than any other team. So that's kind of funny, actually. Dave Roberts said that, you know, the Dodgers manager said that Lauer's velocity was up a little bit more than it usually was. So maybe he was just amped up for this start.

Would you drop? Does he hate the Dodgers? I don't know. I don't hate the Dodgers. I think it's objectively false that everybody hates the Dodgers. Not the Yankees. Would you drop, like, Mike Leak for Eric Lauer? Is that just a lateral move?

Yeah, I mean, we know what Mike Leak is. Eric Lauer could be anything. It could even be Mike Leak. The upside probably isn't that much higher than Mike Leak, but you're not starting Mike Leak every week either, so I don't mind dropping. Mike Leak is the perfect pitcher. to say, would you drop him for someone with some conceivable website?

The answer is usually when he yes, because nobody's rushing out to grab Mike Leak when you drop him. You're not going to miss him. He's not going to hurt you when he's on your team, so I'll wrap it up. Thank you. I gave Chris the rapid up side. We do have a busy show today, a lot to get to. I want to grade some trades and read some emails. So let's read this email.

Email of the day from Matt, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Dear Trebek, Graham Bell, and P. Keaton. Heather Alexander's. Alexander's, yeah. Yes, sir. Can we calibrate the Bregnometer? On a scale of 1 to 10, Alex Bregman is a top three third baseman rest of season,

scale of 1 to 10. So how likely you can be a top meter? Like if it's at 10, then you think he is top three. I would give him a, does less than a five mean less likely? I'll go four, I guess. I don't think he will be, but he certainly could be. Yeah, I mean, you've got him fourth. So that's close.

Right. But that top three is real tough to break into. Although Alex Bregman over the last year. He's been second so far, right? I think he's maybe second in points, third in Roto, behind Aronado. I don't know. It's close. Over the last 365 days, he is tied with John Carlos Stanton for the seventh best Wobah, or weighted runs created in baseball.

That's pretty good. 30 homers, 109 runs, 103 RBI, 17 steals, 296 batting average. Yeah, I mean, he's definitely a power hitter now. He's on, I think, a 33 homer pace for this season. Okay, so pause right there. He's definitely a power hitter now. So that's the thing with Breggman. And by the way, Chris said those top three are tough to crack.

And in case you're confused, you might not be thinking Manny Machado. He's the third. Jose Ramirez, Noah and Aronado, Manny Machado, those are your three. Elite, third baseman, and Alex Bregman's been up there. But Scott's got him ranked ahead of Chris Bryant. Heath has Chris Bryant fourth and Bregman fifth. I don't know. Heath's been out, so I don't know.

His rankings have been updated in eight days. That's the thing. Okay. Breggman, look, great plate discipline. He'll steal some bases. he hasn't been a big power hitter until the last 24 games he's hit 11 of his 19 home runs. So I guess the question is like, you know, baseball is tough. You could change your evaluation on players so many times throughout the season.

The season is so long. Do you buy the power, or are we just catching Alex Bregman in the best stretch of his career? Yes. So you buy the power. I know it is the best stretch of his career, but you buy it, that he's going to be a home run here. He has the best hard hit rate of his career. He has increased his fly ball. He's decreased his ground ball rate, I should say,

because the fly ball rate is actually pretty much where it was in 2016, but he's hitting a lot more line drives as well. So, or fewer line drives. Yeah, sorry. You could argue Alex Brickman's had bad bad bad at the luck this year and that we haven't necessarily seen his best yet. So by saying I don't think he's going to finish top three when he's been better than top three so far.

and Nolan Aeronado and Mani Machado have been as good as we want them to be. I'm kind of acknowledging there will be some power regression. I don't know. Or maybe I'm just undervaluing it. Like, if there's a chance as batting average improves from here

and he does legitimately hit 30 home runs this season, then I think there's a good chance he does finish ahead of those too. Yeah, so it's nice that Bregman is batting at the top of the order because last year he played 155 games, and he had, let's see, like about 160 combined runs and RBIs. So far this year he has 120 in, you know, a little bit more than half of a season. So the counting stats are much better.

So that was the first question from Matt about top three third base in the rest of the season. One to ten, the likelihood that he's a top 15 pick in 2019. Bregman is a top 15 pick in 2019. Well. I just projected the first two rounds for next year. On CBSSports.com. On CPSports.com. And I'll tell you, I'm opening it up now to remember exactly what I put.

21st overall. So just outside of that. However, within the context, within the text, I said he could be, you could slot him ahead of Tray Turner in a points league, which would be 13. So in a points league, I think you could make the Casey's top 15 overall next year. I'd give it like an 8 on the Bregometer. So you don't have Stanton in your top 24, right? Right. You're insane.

Okay. Insane. You know what? I'm going to tease that for tomorrow. Tomorrow we're going to look at that top 24, the first two rounds. Well, I won't be on tonight. No, come on. Why not?

Without me. Come on. Guys, I'm taking some time off. It's the All-Star break. Oh, wow. All right. Then let's... Oh, I really wanted to talk about that.

You're All-Star breaking his heart, Adam. Scott, sorry. All right, you know what? We'll make some time for it later today. Garrett Cole is on the bereavement list. Avi Garcia is on the D.L. with a hamstring injury, but could be back shortly after the All-Star break. Tommy Fam sat with an ankle issue.

Shinsu Chu has now reached base in 48 straight games that is tied for the longest streak. since 2007. Do you guys think that we will be starting Shinsu Chu rest of season? Until he gets hurt. Or maybe traded? You know, possibly into a platoon roll? I don't know. Okay.

I can't imagine. He'd get traded into a platoon role. He's an all-star and has been a top 10 outfielder this year. Would you rather have Shinsu Chu or Ronald Ocuna? I would rather have Kuna, but that's, like, the Shinsu-Chune. But that's that like the shin Where to rank Shinsu Chu Has been a topic of great distress for me

Throughout this season Because like I said he's been top ten But like he's old and hadn't been Anywhere close to that for a couple years So I I don't know It's it's obviously gone on more than half a season now But there's still like some underlying distrust within me

Okay yeah I don't blame you The Yankees are looking at J-Hap The Red Sox have checked in on Manny Machado. Sean Doolittle's on the DL. Not expected to be a long-term thing, but Kelvin Herrera will fill in as the closer for now. Noah Cindergarde is supposed to start on Friday against the Nationals. I don't know that's been officially decided, but that's the word. The Royals, they had a huge outbreak yesterday.

They scored more than five runs since June 4th. It has been more than a month. The Royals have scored more than five runs. In their last 30 games before yesterday, the Royals had averaged 2.3 runs per game. Yikes. Here's an interesting trade note. Derek Dietrich is on the block. He, both last year and this year,

much better road numbers than home numbers. And he's actually having a pretty good year. Should we pick up Derek Dietrich now? Before it's too late! No, because that seems like the exact kind of guy who actually would be traded into a platoon role or a part-time role. I think the brewers were mentioned as a possible option for him.

I'm not sure who there was another team I can't remember, but he's probably not going to play every day in Milwaukee. He doesn't play every day now, Derek Dietrich. Yeah. So maybe a daily league. Those guys are more valuable. Keep an eye on Dietrich. Marwa Gonzalez's day-to-day with arm bruises.

Felix Hernandez on the deal with lower back stiffness. There's no timetable for Dustin Padroa's return. As Drewa Cabrera left with an injury, but he is expected to play today. and Derek Holland I was like, why did Derek Holland start yesterday? They pushed back Johnny Quato They gave him an extra day of rest Ian Kennedy left with an oblique injury

And we'll have an MRI But that awesome Royals offense bailed him out yesterday Chris Brian is expected back today And Garrett Richards left with forearm irritation And he's going to have an MRI Guys, I want to give you a few players Who are widely available Eric Lauer was one of them

Thanks Chris for stealing that Tell me Tell me if they're underones Couple guys, a couple of steel sources. Kevin Kiryremyer, 24% owned. Adel Berto, excuse me, Ad Alberto Mondesi of those hot hit and royals, 12% owned.

Kiermire, 24%, Mondesi, 12%. Are they underowned guys? I feel like Kiermeyer should be owned in every five outfielder rotisserie league. Just, I mean, he's only played 30 games this year, so you really can't greet him on those numbers. Nonetheless, he has six steals. and what he did the previous two seasons,

just based on that, he values steals at all. Not that he was a huge steals guy, but a good steals total with a pretty good power total. Like, you have to own him in those leagues. And Keirmeyer's a lead off-fitter, which is nice. Chris, in which type of league would you consider owning Adelberto Mondesi?

ALE-only, deeper categories-based leagues. I don't think he has any value in points leagues, but he might be a steel specialist. Andrew Cashner is actually pitching pretty well. He gave up five runs, but he gave up three runs through six and then two more in the seventh. He struck out seven Yankees. Three straight quality starts before yesterday. He's 14% owned. Any interest in Cashner?

14% seems too high. No. Okay. Moving on. So before we get to Wuriometer and all that, we've got fringey starting pitchers, to talk about. Tell me who you want from this list. Tyler Anderson, Marcus Strowman. They are, oh, Anuilis-Sha-Sin. They're the most owned of this group. Anderson, Stroman, Hellixon, Musgrove, Shasene, Mike Leak. Tyler Anderson, Marcus Strowman, Helixen, Muskrove,

Chisene, and Mike Leak. Did I say anyone that's like, oh, I got to have that guy? Well, Adam, if you had let me chime in on standouts from yesterday, my standout would have been Tyler Anderson. Sorry. Who had another very good start, eight strikeouts and six innings against the diamond backs. And it was another home start. Now, he's struck out eight or more and four straight, and three of those have been at home. And while he didn't get a ton of swinging strikes yesterday, that number has been generally

up for him recently. Like, he's become, he's always been a soft contact guy, which is what has helped him be a competent pitcher despite playing half his games at Corsefield but suddenly he's getting suddenly he's becoming like this bat misser I think it's very interesting he's already close to 80% owned

because it was two starts or I guess it wasn't a two start week yeah two starts he's got Seattle this weekend yeah yesterday was Tuesday not Wednesday sorry come on Scott White he's already he's already highly owned because it's two start week but I think there's a very good chance you'll want to hold on to him beyond this

He's, it's hard to exactly pinpoint what's gone on during this stretch, but I think of his last six starts, all six of them have been among his seven most cutter heavy starts of the season. He's throwing it right around 30% of the time during that stretch. So that could be an explanation. It hasn't been like a killer pitch for him, but it does have, you know, a decent whiff rate. So that could be the explanation. Would you rather have Tyler Anderson or Kevin Gaw? I guess Anderson right now.

Yeah, I was going to say Gosman still. But Anderson has moved into like my top 80 starting pitchers, which I know it doesn't sound like a high number, but there are a lot of pitchers owned in every fantasy league. And number 81 for you, Scott, is Joe Musgrove. So who's second on the list? If Anderson is one, we have Stroman, Hellixon, Musgrove, Chasene, and Mike Leak. It was Musgrove. It is Musgrove.

I think you can make the case this was his best start this season. And, you know, obviously between a couple D.L stint, he hasn't made many starts. But he's made eight, and five of them have been really good. Well, why him over Stroman? Why Musgrove over Stroman? Because I overlook Stroman. Yeah, Stroman. Yeah, I assume that's what you want.

Most of all these pitchers. You like Stroman better than Tyler Anderson? Well, I think you could make the case against Stroman in a Roto League It's like we always say He's not going to help you in strikeouts He's probably not going to help you in whip I don't even know that I want to start him this weekend at Boston I'll start him in most matchups, but I'm not sure about that one Fair

Yeah, but he's 71% own and he's a really, really good points league pitcher A lot of innings, quality starts, good stuff there Okay, the other guys play the matchups and Helixen never goes six innings. And quickly in the bullpen, Ken Giles gave up three runs without recording an out. You know, look, I know the Astros, they're a fairly well-managed organization.

They've had some decent success lately. Just take my advice and just make Ken Giles your closer and never use him in anything but a stave situation. And that's all you have to do. However, I think he's basically taking himself out of consideration for that. Rondone is 53% owned, I think. Do we need to get him, like, right now? He technically blew the save yesterday, but he was trying to clean up Giles' mess.

Right. And he's recorded, like, all but one or two of the Astros saves since May. Yeah. I mean, he's their closer. Closer for a first place team should obviously be owned in more leagues than that. And by the way, his numbers aren't bad, apart from the fact that he's getting saves. Right. Pretty decent relief.

I don't think Giles has given up a row. run in a save situation yet this year. But every time he pitches in a non-save situation, even 4-0 in the ninth inning. It's just so funny. He's so bad when he's not in a save situation. Save situations, oh, come on. I just had it. He, you know what?

Who cares, right? Save situation. Yes, zero ERA. Okay, 820 ERA otherwise. All right, so we're almost at the Wariometer. let's get to a segment that we started yesterday. I got three more names. Chris, I'll start with you.

Too good to drop. Are these players too good to drop? We talked about a whole bunch of players. We decided now I'm okay dropping Adrian Beltray, if I have to. But no, I don't really want to drop Chris Taylor. What about these three? Daniel Murphy, Chris. No, I'm not dropping Daniel Murphy.

I want to give him a chance to really get healthy. And maybe he never will. And that would be unfortunate. But I think the upset is... Yeah, I think the upset... And he's still never striking out. Yeah, four hits yesterday, but... Batting 250, he has...

He has scored five runs in 24 games. Doesn't play every day. But it's too early. Too early to drop Daniel Murphy, 98% own. How about Jose Martinez, who is a top 12 first baseman? he had one stretch he hit five home runs in nine games not long ago

since then he has a 650 OPS in 23 games Jose Martin I mean he's a confusing player Jose Martinez is he too good to drop he's 98% of well we talked about this on Monday that he's not necessarily an everyday player anymore and this was my concern with him

even early on in the season when he was really hot and hitting the ball well is he is such a bad defender and such a bad base runner that unless he's like 35% better than a league average hitter, it might not be easy to keep him in the lineup every day. And that might be what we're seeing is that he's just slowed down just enough, that he's not doing enough to make up for where he hurts the Cardinals. Now, for Panis, we don't care about defense.

But he hasn't, he started five of the last eight games. So, yeah, I mean, that's the thing, him not being an everyday players, only been going on for like a little over a week. Obviously, it's a problem. You can't start him while that's going on, but I think it's premature to drop him. Like, that could change at the drop of the hat. He had been terrible for like a month straight. Last two games, three hits each.

Like, he gets hot again. Maybe this Jerko thing goes away. Okay, so this is Jose Martinez we're talking about. Jerko happens to be hot right now, but, you know, we pretty much know who Jedjerko is. So you wouldn't drop Jose Martinez for, Stephen Piscotti? No. All righty. And last guy, too good to drop.

Ronald Acuna. Hasn't really been that good. Is he too good to drop, though, Ronald Acuna? Yeah. He needs to get better for me to say that all season long. But he's shown enough flashes and obviously gets a pass for these first couple weeks of from the DL. I think you gotta let it play out a little longer.

Okay, Ronald Ocuna. We're keeping our eye on you, buddy. Who's ready to get worried? Worryometer Wednesday. Can't wait. Some pretty high-end players. You don't like the Worryometer, Scott? I don't like worry in general.

Why invite Worry into your life, Adam? Don't worry, be happy. I feel like Scott doesn't really like these little meters that you put together. Well, then we need... You're always like, I don't really want to do this one. Well, for every single one.

We need the scottometer then. Like, I don't know what the hell that is, but the scotometer needs to exist. All right. Thinking arbitrary numbers. Worryometer. That somehow makes sense. Well, the other thing that we do with it,

it's like, don't overthink it. Just, you know, how we're... So if you want to... Nobody's going to string you up in the town square because you gave Clayton Kershaw 4 instead of a It's a fun little game that allows us to discuss different players that we might not normally discuss within the context of the show. Just play along with the game again. Scott, I've done that twice.

I mean, and then you get Heath. Like, Heath just basically picks 10 or 1 for everybody, you know? Because Heath, you don't get the game, Scott. All right, let's start it. Moriometer for Clayton Kirshaw. Lowest strikeout rates in 2013. lowest swinging strike rate since 2010, career high, hard contact rate,

just like everyone else in baseball. Also a very, very low soft contact rate. And look, he got a 261 ERA. Worryometer for Clayton Kershaw. Ten. Don't worry, it doesn't matter. It's like a seven or eight, probably, though. He's not, like, bold-faced

Clayton Kershaw, who stands above the rest of the mortals. He's a normal, he looks like a normal extremely good pitcher rather than maybe the greatest pitcher of all time it's been a two-year trend like he does seem to be declining here and obviously there are health concerns built in there he is not in the first two round when i did you know projecting the first two rounds for next year he's not in that he's outside it's like a third rounder right so rest of season would you rather have de graham or kershaw de grom yeah i think

Grom. Bumgarner or Kershaw? Oh, Kershaw. Cole or Kershaw? Cole. I will take Kershaw. All right. Wariometer 4, Jose Ibrahim.

So all the notes, all the research I did basically was yesterday before the games. And only one of these guys had a good game yesterday. It was Travis Shaw, who actually did give updated info on. But as of yesterday, Jose Abraio was the number 14 first basement of points, but number 21 in Roto. Why the discrepancy? he's having a really good doubles year. He has 27 doubles. I don't know.

That's got to be it. But 259 with 12 home runs. And it's starting to kind of look like his 2016 season when he was the number 10 first baseman in points, number 13 in Roto. He had 293 with 25 homers. Last year was a much better year. He had 304 with 33 homers and was a top five first baseman. What's youruriometer on Jose Abraeu? It's like a

Three maybe Yeah it's low The thing about that 2016 season is he was just lagging in home runs for so long And then came Rory back toward the end Didn't quite make it all the way back to the 30 Homer Standard we're used to seeing But the underlying numbers made him look like normal Jose Abrae all year

He just needed to get more of those free hits That are sailing over the fence And I feel like he's in the same spot this year It's not like he's striking out a lot more. He's had some bad babit luck. But the biggest thing is just the home run to fly ball rate is down. If he had 23 doubles and 16 home runs, we're probably not talking about him. He's really cold right now.

I mean, the batting average stands out because he hits $2.90 every year, and he's batting $259. But in his last 31 games, Abrae was batting 233 with a 521 OPS. I think that Abrae was a great by-low candidate. Agree? Agreed. Yep. Same with the next guy.

Last thing, though, about Brayu, though, is that he runs in RBIs could be tougher. He has 50 RBIs, so that's good. But 42 runs. I guess it's okay. Anthony Rizzo. Yeah, like, I'm assuming he's going to be pretty low on the Wariometer. He's been even worse than a Brayu. Slightly better in points, but a little bit worse in Roto.

13th and points, 25th in Roto for Rizzo. He's got a 615 OPS in his last 29 games. That was before yesterday. the only thing that really concerns me, he's batting 2-13 with a 293 slugging against lefties. So, you know, like, I don't know if that's a new issue. It hasn't been an issue in Rizzo's past, really. He's having a terrible year against lefties. Bryce Harper's is hitting into the shift.

Maybe Rizzo's doing the same thing. Like, there are lefty power hitters who are really struggling against left-handed pitching, and I'm wondering if this is an actual thing and not just a blip. What's your Worryometer on Rizzo? It's probably like a three also. It's a one for me. There's too much consistency in his past. Okay.

All right. Eric Hosmer, worryometer on Hosmer. Eric Osmer, I believe, I believe I saw this. I believe he has a negative launch angle on average this season. That's not good. No.

Now, let me tell you where Hosmer Hasmer's finished at first base last three years. He always alternates, right? 7th, 12th, 6th at first base last three years. And yet I never really feel like he's that impactful. But last year was very good, 318 but 25 homers. It's like we mentioned with Stephen Piscotti, where Stephen Piscotti played 153 games,

and that explains at least some of why he ranks so high in 2016. Osmer never misses time. That is a feather in his cap. He has played less than 159 games or 158 games once in his last five seasons. He's on pace to play. I think every game for the Padres this season. But he's still frustrating, Eric Cosmer, 61% ground ball rate, which is the highest of his career. And he was always an extreme ground ball hitter.

Still hitting the ball hard. Still has a 20% home run to fly ball rate. Still has a 38% hard contact rate. When he does hit the ball, not on the ground, good things. tend to happen. He just stubbornly refuses. He's kind of a throwback since he's not part of this fly ball revolution.

Like, his status is so dependent on what his BABIP ends up being and because he's not somebody that they can really shift on, his BABIP is kind of all over the place. And so that's why we see these inconsistencies from year to year.

There are some years where he hits for a great average like last year and he ends up being a fine fantasy option. but so far this hasn't been that year. He just can't, Eric Hosmer cannot string together two good seasons in a row. And earlier this year, he had played a lot more home games than road games. And, you know, it was like, well, he's been good on the road, but now he's actually been better at home.

Forget about worry. Like, can you drop Eric Hosmer? In a shallower league, I think so. Yeah. Right. Not one that offers, like, that has like corner infield spots to fill. I don't think you can do it in that league. He'll probably pretty, still pretty valuable there.

All right, Travis Shaw. He did Homer yesterday, and he stole his first base. But he is batting 242, and Travis Shaw is batting 217 against lefties with no home runs and 69 at bats. The good news is the brewers have the fewest at bats against lefties so far this year. I mean, I guess that's good news. But he's been terrible against them. And he's usually, you know, he's usually fine against lefties. So, Worryometer on Travis Shaw.

Yeah, it's such a small sample against lefties. that it's hard to make much of it, especially since his track record's okay. I think the biggest thing with Travis Shaw is he has a 248 Babbitt, and his fly ball rate is exactly what you want to see it to be for a power hitter, so you're not really worried about the power, and the Bavit is so low that you feel like corrections happening with the batting average. The plate discipline's been awesome. Wariometer, worryometer, worryometer.

It's like another three for me. I will say he is hitting more infield fly balls than ever, 13.5%. that's much higher than it was the last couple of years. His soft contact rate is much higher than it was last year. So there are warning signs in his bad at ball profile, but I'll still say a four. Do you want to buy low on Travis Shaw? I do.

It depends how low. I think he's also been dealing with some injuries, which was a problem for him last year. He, like, fouled the ball off his foot and it tanked his season. He's been dealing with a wrist issue for a couple of weeks. Would you rather have Travis Shaw, or the next guy on this list, Mike Mustakis.

Travis Shaw. Would you rather have Travis Shaw or Max Muncie? Max Muncie. How worried are you about Mike Mustakus? First 38 games, he had a 904 OPS. Last 48 games entering yesterday, he is batting 210 with seven home runs, and he is, again, struggling against lefties.

How worried are you? Wariometer on Mustakis. I'll put it at like a five. My biggest concern for him isn't so much that, you know, he's kind of on a cold stretch right now, but that there's nothing around it. You just talked about how few runs the royals are scoring, and since he's a guy who doesn't generally have a high OBP,

he kind of needs the run and RBI padding to be a real standout and fantasy. The reason it's only a five is because he's probably getting traded, and so that's probably going to change. He's almost certainly getting traded to a more favorable park, and I think he's still the top 12. third basement. Okay, and he has been.

That's the crazy thing. He has been. He's 11th, Mastakis, his 11th in points, 10th in Roto. Finally, Marcelo Zuna. Chris, when you filled in

for me and you hosted, was that last week? Or two weeks ago? I think it was two weeks ago now. Yeah, things have gotten worse for Ozuna since then. In the last 28 days, he's batting 253.

He's slugging 374. He has 10 home runs and nine doubles all year in 86 games. His slugging percentage is under 400. Woriometer on Marcelo Zun. Zuna. He's just been so hot and cold this season because he did have like a 30 game stretch where he was one of the best hitters in baseball.

Moriometer. 5.7. Yeah, that's a 5. That's a 5. It's not just the home runs that are down. The doubles are way down too. There's been an absence of power that's concerning. Would you'd rather have Marcelo Zuna or Ronald Ocuna? O'Suna.

Yeah. But I'm moving Ozuna down. more aggressively than I have all year. Ozuna or... Who was that other guy we talked about? Will Myers. Will Myers or Marcelo Zuna? I think I could go with Will Myers now that he's healthy.

I'm sure I still have Ozuna ranked ahead, but it's a thin margin now. I think, you know, you take probably Myers and Roto in points. But his, like, Ozuna's play discipline has been so bad, you know? I mean, he's just not having a good year. All right, new segment. Chris makes people mad on Twitter. It's only a new segment. I mean, it happens all the time, but it's never been in the show.

Every day. All right, Chris. James and Tyone versus Jose Burrios. Oh, I thought we were talking about The Last Jedi. No, no. Did you make people mad about that, too? No, folks just want to be mad about that movie. Yeah.

It's not good? It's not very good. I watched it last week finally and gave me six-month-old take on it. Very entertaining. Okay. I enjoyed it immensely. And then I got the same barrage of, but you didn't think, you didn't think this minute detail ruined the entire legacy?

No, I didn't. All right, Chris. Yeah. All you got to do is read the notes. I put in there all that you need to know about why Jamison Ceyone should not be compared to Jose Burrios. But I'll let you compare them nonetheless. the less. Why?

I don't know what you're referring to. What is your thoughts on Jose Barrios versus James and Tion? I think James and Tion is a more talented pitcher than Jose Burrios. I like the things he does more than I like the things Jose Burrios does. I like the skill set more. Jose Burrios results have unquestionably been better. But he's been lucky this year. Who would you rather own?

I'd rather on Jose Brrios. Okay. But both are rightly, universally owned. And Brrios is the number 14 pitcher in fantasy. Tione is number 51. Yep, that's close. Razors head. What's the argument for he's been lucky this year, other than the fact that his fifths a little higher than a ZRA?

Well, that? I mean, he's been an elite control pitcher. Yeah. He's been, he's become an elite bathmister, apart from a three-started. stretch. He has, I think, 21 more innings than Tyone. Jose Barrios is not on trial here, guys. Yeah, but I think you're missing the breakout because Barrio, the big difference. No, hold on, hold on. Okay, that's no. Okay. No. Yes.

He has a 341 ERA and a 378 fit. He is good. You look at the game pod. We talk about, we, hold on. We talk about this guy like he is Walter Johnson reincarnated. That's what we do. he's pretty good. The peripheral say he's pretty good. The peripheral say he's pretty good. Well, so I guess it really depends on what you make of that three-star stretch where Burrios was awful. If it was just a weird kind of thing, then, you know, other than that, because he has so many great starts. And he has 10 starts. Hold on one sec.

He has 10 starts of seven or more innings. That's the big difference between Barrios and Tyone. The Pirates don't trust Tyone to get through the third. The Pirates and Thayon is not as good of a fantasy pitcher as. as Jose Barrios. That is, nobody's talking about that. But I know, but the reason why he's not as good of an actual pitcher is because he struggles big time, third time through the order. Look, look at him. And Burrios is going deep into games. Look at him. I was making people mad on Twitter.

Okay, okay. But I do let me be clear that the way we talk about Jose Barrios has not matched the way he's actually pitched in his major league career. Oh, that was the other thing that, but that's why you made me mad on Twitter. That's why. talk about him and this is what you did. And I'm not, I'm not criticizing you. I just, we, that's what Jose Brieus, the idea has been better than Jose Brerius, the actual pitcher. And we do this thing where we say, well, the bad starts, well, we'll just not talk about that. And it's like, no, the bad starts happened. He has had more starts than your typical, like, his numbers are pretty comparable to Aaron Null. But Jose Brias has had five starts with three or fewer

strikeouts. That, like, we tend to not talk about these weird stretches. Like, Jose Brice is very good. I just think he's good in like 25th best pitcher in baseball, not 15. Okay. Yeah, that's cool. I get that. The only thing I would say is that I don't, I don't really care. If you're going to say, look at his entire career, then I think you should probably do that with Luis Severino. And look at Luis Severino's second season where he was so bad that he got to mode it to the bullpen. I don't really care. I think. As soon as Jose Brrios has a season as good as Louis Severino's last year and not a month, we can make that comparison. I'm just saying, for a young pitcher that hasn't had that many years in the big leagues,

I don't think it makes sense to look at all of his career, because obviously, you know, he's going to go through some rough stretches at the beginning of his career. I'm just looking at this year. And I don't know how, like, and I don't know how you could make the argument that he hasn't taken a dramatic leap forward this year. I mean, I was team, I was team Jose Berea. I was team like Jose Barrios is overrated coming into the season, and I obviously had to eat that.

Yeah, I thought he was overrated. Go ahead, Chris. He also had a 384 fit last season and a 378 fit this season. Yeah, I think he's better than that. I really do. Like his swinging strike rate is way up. I do think he's better than that. I know we do think he's better than that.

His walk rate is way down. He's pitching deep into games, consistently. He's very good. You do not have to sell me on Jose Barrios being good. But we have to sell you on the breakout because you're not buying it. Yeah. All right.

He's good. All right. Well, here's another breakout. Tell me if you're buying this one. David Peralta. David Peralta is the number 17 outfielder in points, number 21 in Roto. He homered at Corse Field yesterday. He is won away from his career high, 17 home runs.

Paralta's batting 290. And now he has sat against two of the last three lefties, but it was mostly starting against that. before that. Are we buying this David Peralta breakout? Not really. It's surprising he's hit for this much power because he hasn't been elevating ball very well. He has a high, hard contact rate, so maybe that explains it. But I don't think that alone is enough for me to trust that he's going to continue this career-high home-run pace.

The fact he's playing every day, I mean, it makes him more valuable than I thought he'd be coming into the season. but I don't think he's quite as good as he has been. Okay. Paralta or Ozuna? Ozuna. Yeah. Paralta or Mazzara? Mazara.

Just to continue... Oh, go ahead. Yeah, it might go Peralta. Just to continue Peralta, Ozuna, Mizarra, guys whose last name end with A. Peralta or Hararapara? Jake Peralta. All right. Mike Ler, Feralta.

Franco, Routneodor. They've been doing some good things lately. They're owned in about half our leagues. Do you want to get Michael Franco or Rue Nettodor in your life? Did you mean to say Jake Peralta just then? Yeah, I did. Brooklyn, I died. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, okay. Do you want Michael Franco or Ruehned Adore? I'm more interested in Ruech Nett O'Dore than Michael Franco for sure. Yeah. And it's not like either of them is must add. It would, It would have to be like the standard roto lineup league where you have all those hitter spots to fill that I think I'd be excited enough to make a play for Odor right now. Rest of season, Moncada or Odor? I'll go with Moncada.

Yeah, and yeah, I think so. Okay. Two down. Teoska Hernandez, 68% owned. He has a 608 OPS in his last 18 games. Before that, he had an 869 OPS in 54 games, so he's been cold. What do you think about Teoska Hernandez? ownership percentage at 68%.

I guess it's a little high because he's cold right now. I like the skill set. I just, he's not polished. Okay. All right. Yeah, I mean, three outfields are league.

He's pretty streamable, probably. And then I was going to talk about Michael Brantley. Since June 1st, he is the 40th best outfielder in points, 69th in Roto. And he is batting 261 with two home runs.

Like, is he going, Is Michael Brantley going to excel in anything other than batting average? No. Maybe runs. But probably not. His strength is his ability to put the bat right there on that ball. Yeah. But it's kind of, I guess it's kind of a Trey Turner argument where Trey Turner isn't going to excel at anything but stolen bases.

But he's pretty good at everything, you know? Yeah. And, like, there's enough power there from Brantley. And he's so good at putting a bat on the ball, like Chris said, that you get that extra bonus in points leagues of not losing points from strikeouts, just a big deal. I think he's still good, even though he's been cold. All right, Michael Brantley.

Rotation from yesterday. Corbin, bad start of Colorado, will forgive him. Trevor Bauer deserved a win, but the Indians gave up seven runs. and called on the wrong relief pitcher in the ninth inning. Miles Michaelis was good at the White Sox, so those guys are boring. Okay. How about this? Yeah.

There's one pitcher I really want to talk about. Oh, okay. Go ahead. Julio Tehran. Yeah, he's in this segment. Go ahead. He's done some confounding things here recently. Yesterday, I mean, the line was fine.

One and run, six and two-thirds innings five strike up against the Blue Jays. 22 swinging strikes. And that's a trick he's done a lot recently. Three of his past five starts, 16 or more swinging strikes. His velocity has been up a couple miles per hour during that five-star stretch. And yet the overall results aren't great. There's been a couple of really bad starts in there. But there's some interesting signs here from Tehran

that make me reluctant to give up on him despite having a very high ERA this year. He's showing stuff that he hasn't shown in a couple years, and that makes me wonder if there's more than meets the eye. Oh, he's a transformer, Julio Taran. I like this guy. Some of the same things. He had two terrible starts in his five-star stretch, one against Baltimore, one at the Yankees. The other guys that I wanted to talk about, how would you rank the

following four pitchers? Manaya, Kintana, Tanaka, Rich Hilla, Manaya, Kintana, Tanaka, Rich Hill. How would you rank them? Chris Towers.

Kantana, Tanaka, Hill, Mania. Oh, really? Mr. Manaya is now slotting him behind Richard Hill. Yeah, Rich Hill's healthy

for the moment. For the moment. Rich Hill's very good when he's healthy. Can I say that? I'm assuming this is a rest of season ranking where we're not

trusting Hill to be healthy, right? Yeah, that's the problem. them, right? I'm not dropping any of them. I'll tell you this. Yeah. Rich Hill, when all four of them pitch, Mania, Kintana, Tanaka, and Hill, I expect Rich Hill to be the best. I feel like you guys would agree with that. Yeah. Provided he makes it through the given start that we are talking about. Yes. Which is the problem with Rich Hill. And giving them equal innings.

And to be clear, I did actually recently drop Rich Hill, but I had to. But I'm not giving them equal innings, Scott, because Kentana, like you've pointed out, does not pitch more than six innings, and he has an 1129 ERA third time through the order. Yeah, he hasn't been this year. Right. I am not looking at Kintana anymore as, like, this by-low who is going to be really good for my team.

Neither am I. I've struggled with how far to move him down the rankings, guys like him and Dallas, Kikl, and Tanaka, even. Like, how much does the trust that they've built up in past years outweigh what somebody like a Miles Michaelis, Rick Porcelo,

even like a Mike Fultenevich, what they've actually done this year. And they're kind of slotted in the middle of that group for me. All right, guys, I'm very happy with your performance so far today. We've gotten to a lot of things. We've talked about a lot of important players. Now, we run to the police station,

and we, I love this song. It's such a great song. It's such a great song. This is the part right here. Incredible song. Right? It's so great. We're going to grade some trades.

All right. We'll do this kind of fast. From Seth. Dear Ron, Tammy, and Tom. Is that Parks and Rec? I think so. Grade the trade in a road in a dynasty roto league. Scher and Winker.

Shurzer and Winker. For Kyle Hendrix and Manny Machado. Shurzer and Winker for Hendrix and Machado. I think that is a and a. Good job. I think that's... Really? I think that's like a D.

Why? You're getting Machado. You know what? I think Scherzer and Machado are about equals for me. So I'll give it... But not in Dynasty. Like, you have... Scott Bail's...

That's a zero on the Scotto meter. Because the... Xerzer's nine years older than Chattano, I think? Next, next, next. I wonder why I don't like these little games. Next one. Hush. Hush.

Hush, from Aaron. 12 team points league. Give up Verlander. Get Goldschmidt and Bieber. Verlander for Goldschmidt and Bieber. Beber. I'll give that a B minus. From Ryan, give Upton.

Get Donaldson. 14 team league. B. Yeah. Yeah, I'll go D. B plus. It was Melvin Upton for Donaldson. A.

Just kidding. From Paul, give up Daniel Murphy and Jose Abreu in a 5-5 roto. Murphy and Abraeu for Blackman. Hot take? This is an A. Whoa. Yeah. I'll go B.

All right. It's a good trade one way or the other. From David. Dynasty League, Scott. Dynasty League. Give up. Dynasty. Give up.

Cinderguard, Willie Calhoun, and Eloy Jimenez for Mike Trout. Cindergarde Calhoun and Jimenez in a dynasty league for Michael Trout. It would depend a lot on the exact rules here, but assuming you're keeping all these players on equal terms, like they're just filling keeper spots. There's not discounts applied to some versus others. I will give this a B plus. Chrissy? Yeah. All right.

Sorry for calling you, Chrissy. From Matt, grade the trade in an AL-only league, eight-team AL-only. Segura and Springer for Aaron Judge. That's an F. Yeah. That's way too much.

I'm not, I mean, Judge is better than Springer, but there's not a Gene-Sigura-sized gap between them. Listen, people are bailing on George Springer. It's a mistake. Yes. Oh, yeah. By Springer.

And I'll add that this is an, because this is an AL-only team, just the fact that you're giving up two starting caliber players. Plus starters is a huge deal because you don't find those guys on waivers. Grade the trade from Matt, Jose, Yohan, and Matt. Famous Moncadas. Ten-team categories league. 30-man roster. Give Snell and Encarnazion.

Get Verlander and Carlos Santana. Snell and Encarnaz for Verlander and Santana. It is an OBP League. Yeah, I still think that's like a D. Oh, really? I think Verlander's an upgrade over Blake's now, but I think Edwin and Carnaciosons is quite a bit better than Carlos Santana, even in OBP.

I don't know if I agree. Yeah, I'm not sure. I'm not sure I agree either. I will go B. I'll go C plus. And from Zach, grade the trade in a six-by-six roto five outfielder league. Give Stanton, get Snell. D-minus.

And I love Blake's Snell. C-minus. But he's got a little regression coming. He's not quite this good. And you're not, if we redrafted today, Blake Snell's not going ahead of John Carlos Stanton. No, he's not. But it wouldn't be a big gap. I think they'd both be third rounders.

Maybe Snell drops to the fourth. fourth round. I'll go C minus. Like, if you needed pitching more than hitting, I'd have absolutely no problems with you making this deal. Today's matchups, are we starting Jordan Zimmerman at the raise against Hunterwood, who obviously we're not starting, but Jordan Zimmerman?

I'm not. First is higher on Zimmerman than I am. I'm, maybe he's the one to ask. I'm very interested in what Jordan Zimmerman's doing lately, but I'd be okay passing. Okay. How about Gio Gonzalez at Trevor Williams? I don't mean Sargio at this point I don't think so either

Not right now How about Who the heck is this Oh sorry Birch Smith At Lance Lynn Birch Smith at Lance Lynn My one-star streamer of the week

And the Royals are a Just absolutely disgusting dumpster Of a baseball team But Lance Lynn's not good I'd start Lynn He's been good enough Mike Montgomery and Johnny Quato I think I can start both Quato and Montgomery in this one

I think you can make an argument to start both You can make an argument to start neither Both right on the fence there I'd be more likely to start Quoido than Montgomery Sunny Gray at Dylan Bundy No I think I'd roll with Bundy Even though he was bad off the DL

He's just a really good pitcher Velasquez at DeGrom DeGrom DeGrom for sure I feel both. The matchup's really good, but I prefer to wait on Velasquez coming off with DL. Hey, did you hear about that great deal at that store in Boston? There's a Cologne sale.

There's a Cologne sale. Oh, I get it. They're both pitching tonight. Cologne, no, sale, yes. Freddie Peralta at Dan Straeli. I will start Freddie Peralta. Yep. Tyler Malley at Carlos Carasco. Definitely Carasco.

Oh, I like what Morrow. Malley's done recently, but the Indian lineup is really good. I'd lean against it. Sam Gavillo at Mike Fultenevich. Fulti. Fulti. Chris Bassett at Lance McCullors. McCullors.

Luke Weaver at Carlos. My other one starts streamer this week, Weaver at Rodon. Luke Weaver. I think if you have him on your roster, you go ahead and run him out there. And it'll probably backfire, and I'll hate him again. Dims de Bricks. All right, Shelby Miller at Armand Marquez.

No, thank you, please. How about Miguel Gonzalez at Jaime Baria? Marco, Marco Gonzalez. It will start Marco Gonzalez. Oh, okay, yeah, that changes it. And Kenta Maeda at Joey Lucchese. Maeda for sure. Lucchese, it would not surprise me if he had a very good start.

But probably not starting him mostly. Of course, it'll be for like five and a third. But, yeah. So to recap, we're starting Luke Weaver. We're sitting Joey Lucchasey, but Lucasey's going to have a good start in Weaver won't. Full predictions. Okay.

Good, very. Well, that's good advice. So thank you to Scott and Chris. Scott, enjoy your All-Star break. Thank you, Adam. Chris and I will carry the load the next couple days. Yeah, you guys will keep working. Yeah, so sorry.

Bye, everyone. We'll talk to you on Thursday.