Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Looking ahead to the second half with Al Melchior

Episode Date: July 12, 2017

Al Melchior makes his triumphant return to the pod, as he looks ahead to the second half of the season with Scott White and Chris Towers. Do the guys still have faith in Noah Syndergaard (10:30)? Should you buy low on Rougned Odor and Danny Duffy (20:00)? Plus sell-high candidates like Robbie Ray and Eric Hosmer (39:45). To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. It's Wednesday, July 12th. The first day after the All-Star break, the day the sports world stands still. But we continue to charge forward with an old friend here, an old friend on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Al Melchior, joining me, Scott White, to talk about fantasy baseball. Al, how's it going? Great, Scott. It's a little weird.

I'm shaking some rust off here. I mean, I podcast still, but, you know, I've had one podcast with you since leaving CBS, but first one on your turf. Yeah, and you've been doing some serious sports radio stuff, right? What have you been up to since you left CBS? Yeah, a lot of different things. I started my own blog, my own weekly matchup report newsletter, writing for fan rack sports, and I do the podcast for them,

which, as you just mentioned, Scott, is also a live, broadcast on fantasy sports radio five times a week, and writing for fan graphs. Yeah, it's just all over the place. It covers it. Yeah, busy guy. Busy guy. Still well in tune to the baseball world. So it's good to have you back out.

This is going to be fun. This is going to be fun. And let's talk about what's been going on in baseball the last couple of days. The All-Star game, Robinson Canoe, of course, hitting a solo home run in the 10th inning to win it for the AL again. They won two to one in extra innings. Yadir Malina also had a home run in that game. The day before that, it may have actually been even more exciting. Aaron Judge winning the home run derby, which, you know,

the result may have not been so surprising. Aaron, Judge, doing some ridiculous things power-wise this year, hitting the ball a long way, had a few home runs over 500 feet in the derby. But, again, it was an exciting competition that home-run derby. I feel like baseball's really fixed that event to the point where it went from being kind of a snoozer, I thought. Something I wasn't that excited to tune into to now. For me, it's the highlight of All-Star Week.

Yeah, no, it's, you know, I think it is a little more exciting with this format. And, yeah, you know, and the All-Star game itself, I mean, it's a cool thing. But it's always, for me, a little bit of an anti-climax. So I tend to agree with you. I don't know if I like the HomeRine. Derby necessarily more, but I like it more than I used to. Yeah, yeah, I mean, between the clock, the four-minute clock, so you get these buzzer-beater home runs, and then the head-to-head matchups, one player going versus another, so you know exactly what

each guy is aiming for. It just, that first round especially, to me it was intense and I was excited to see it. Two years, no, actually, that was the third year of that format, and it just keeps getting better and better, I think. So what was your favorite part of the All-Star Week? You know, I think nothing really stands out in a huge way, but I thought that what they did last night with micing up the players was, I'm not sure if I liked it or just liked it or loved it or hated it. It was just novel, you know? I thought it was great. I thought it was great. The idea that we could hear, you know, what they're thinking when they're actually out there in

the field and I guess it would only work with the outfielders because you know how much out action does an outfielder kit during the course of a game but I I thought it was great it was it was interesting that they could you know pay attention to what was going on in the field Bryce Harper and who was who else was it they talked to um try to um Cruz no was yeah yeah yeah I can't remember either but it was interesting that they could pay attention what was going on in the field and still answer the questions in a thoughtful way. I was impressed. I hope we see more of that.

I don't know if they'd be willing to do it during regular season games. Yeah, and I definitely wouldn't like that. Keep your focus on what's happening, guys. We don't need you broadcasting in your spare moments. All right, so some big news happening apart from what actually went down during the All-Star Week. Madison Bumgarner is on the verge of returning Saturday. is when he's scheduled to pitch again for the Giants. And his last rehab start was great.

Eight strikeouts over six innings, only two hits allowed. How are you feeling about Madison Bumgarner coming back? I'm a little concerned, you know, as I would be with, you know, most anybody coming back from that long of a layoff, you know, an injured-related layoff. It certainly, you know, would help for me in the 10-game leagues that I'm in. And I don't own any Bumgarner, so this is just really hypothetical for me. But if I did, to have them with two starts against the Padres, that's a pretty nice soft landing. So, yeah, he's certainly startable, or I would say even must start.

But I would be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit worried. Well, yeah, obviously, and the two-start aspect depends on how exactly you have your league set up. The default setting here on CBS Sports is still the shortened three-game week, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, is a week unto itself. I know other sites, and you have this option on CBS Sports too. You can fold that short and week into the next full week, and then basically everybody's making two starts. So, yeah, Bumgarner would be a two-start pitcher in that scenario. But look, I'm just excited to get him back.

And he had gotten roughed up earlier on his rehab assignment, so it was encouraging seeing good starts in this latest one. But, you know, an injuring two is pitching shoulder. Obviously, we're going to want to keep an eye on the velocity and everything else there. Another pitcher coming back, Kyle Hennon. Hendricks, coming back from a hand injury, potentially this weekend. And not as exciting as Bumgarner. How did you feel about the way he was pitching before the injury?

Well, right before the injury, I was feeling really good about it. I wasn't feeling good about how Hendricks was performing back in April, but he seemed to be kind of slowly, steadily rounding into form. So, you know, as with Bumgarner, although, of course, not as long of a layoff for Hendricks, but a little concerned that, you know, maybe a loss of momentum, still maybe not 100%. I hope he gets back to where he was, because where he was, I thought,

was pretty close to his form from last year. You know, the innings were still down, and it's, you know, as valuable as wins are in fantasy, even in leagues that don't reward wins, you're usually rewarding quality starts. So, you know, he needs to go six and seven consistently for me to really see him as an impact player in fantasy, but certainly worth owning and certainly good news that he's coming back.

Eduardo Nunez expected back, from the DL Friday from a hamstring injury. That's good news, if only because he's shortstop eligible. Chris Davis began a rehab assignment Monday. He's coming back from an oblique injury. He could potentially come back during the short and week. Starlin Castro dealing with a hamstring injury. He's going to play in rehab games Thursday and Friday,

so his return is near. Colton Wong coming back from a triceps injury. Looks like he'll be ready to go for the start of the short week. And what do you think that means for the rest of the kind? Cardinals line of specifically Luke Voigt. Yeah, he would seem to be the loser in all of that. And, yeah, that's unfortunate because he was kind of an intriguing power source. But if it's not Voight, then I would say maybe Wong himself.

Yeah, that's what I'm hoping for. That's what I'm hoping for. They've seen a lot from Colton Wong, and he keeps getting chances without showing any real improvement. And if the Cardinals want to get back in the race, they need to make some head. here. So Luke Void's hitting for them. You know, Matt Carpenter. There's been some chatter that maybe Matt Carpenter's offense has been hurt by him playing first base. I don't know. That that's just kind of an out there theory maybe, but it'll be about that, but he has hit better lately, so maybe

there is something to that. Yeah, moving to second base, he's hit better. So hopefully Colton Wong doesn't disrupt things too much there. Eduardo Rodriguez, he looked good in his last rehab start and he's likely back Monday. So if you're playing the shortened week, you won't have access to him right away. But maybe he'll be available for two starts the following week. Okay, these aren't some other news. This is some other news. It's not directly injury-related, but some interesting things that caught my attention

during the long weekend. Matt Harvey, Dan Wharton, his pitching coach, said that it was discovered after he went on the DL that the, the, muscles behind his right shoulder, so his throwing shoulder, and the words of Worthen had totally atrophied. They were about half the size of those on the left. And again, this was before he went on to DL. So he was pitching through that, coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. You know, I don't have high expectations for Matt Harvey when he returns, which may not be until August, but that's encouraging to hear if, you

if his velocity's back, obviously that's a game changer. Yeah, I mean, mostly I'm just befuddled by that report. I mean, how could the Mets, it feels like we ask this a lot. Like, how could the Mets know X or Y, you know, how that got by them? I'm not sure. And it would seem like that's the sort of thing that could take Harvey, you know, maybe through till next season to really recover from or, you know, build up from. Yeah.

So, yeah, no, I don't have high hopes. for him either, but you're right. It's encouraging in the sense that it provides us with a really plausible explanation why he just wasn't himself. And that's procedure, thoracic outlet surgery. It sounds really invasive and scary and dangerous, but, you know, I took the time this spring to go back and look through the history of it, pitchers who've gone through it and how they were after the fact. And it had such a high success rate. In fact, it seemed like most pitchers actually improved afterwards. So it was befuddling how Harvey was pitching, and hopefully this provides some sort of answer, even if we don't find out for sure until 2018, like you were saying. Noah Sindergaard

is also on demand for the Mets. He's going to start throwing next week. And there's some talk. Maybe he could be back in a reliever as a reliever if the Mets decide they need him back sooner. I don't think the Mets are going to need him back sooner. And I mean me neither But yeah It's just you know kind of one more thing To to To deflate his value going forward

And that said You know I don't think anybody should drop him Especially if it's a Roto League where you're you know You're competing all season Just on you know On the chance that he's starting games for the Mets in September And he's back to normal Now this is a big

This is big news at least on CBS Sports Leagues Where the eligible eligibility requirements or five games in season for a position player to gain eligibility, Freddie Freeman got his fifth game before the break. He is now third base eligible. Where would you have him in your third base rankings? Ah, um, all right, Scott, it caught me off guard just a little bit. Okay, I'll let you, no excuse for it because this was in the notes. Yeah, no, I'll let you look it up. I'll let you look. I'll go ahead and start. I know I would have, and I think is I know I've been asked this before too. So I know

I'd have him behind Aeronado and Donaldson, although it's pretty close with those two. Okay. So you have him behind Donaldson. I'd still put him ahead of Jose Ramirez. Yeah. Well, definitely for me. I'm having a hard time saying he's not my number one, actually. And I have a hard time moving ahead of Nolan Aeronado just because Nolan Aeronado is like a fixture at the top of those third base rankings. and never gives you any reason to suspect he's not a first-round caliber hitter. So, okay, I'm fine putting him behind Nolan Aeronado. But then you get into the Chris Bryant's of the world. You mentioned Josh Donaldson.

Mani Machado is still up pretty high for me. And I still feel like Freddie Freeman is somebody I want more than them. The way he's come back from this wrist injury seems to have picked up where he left off. And, you know, I don't mean to make this a head-to-head point-specific thing. but just because that format provides such clarity about how closely players relate to each other, Freddie Freeman has been far and away the best corner infielder on a per game basis this year. Like the difference between him and Joey Votto, who's number two in head-to-head points per game, is 0.65 points per game, which is like the difference between a must-start player and a horrible player

if we're looking further down on players who rank further down in that particular stat. So Freddie Freeman has been awesome, and I think in ways that are sustainable with the plate discipline improvement, his line drive rate is still off the charts. How would you characterize Freddie Freeman, if you still like those other third baseman more, how close is he to being a first-round caliber hitter in your mind? Yeah, I'd say, you know, if we were doing mocks right now for 2018 for me,

he'd be a guy there probably right on the turn. Okay. Yeah, so pretty much there. Okay. But, you know, could also see him going first couple of picks in the second round, too. Well, if you like those other third baseman more, I assume you like Goldschmidt more. I assume you like Joey Vod. Would you take Freeman or Votto if we're thinking among first base?

I take Votto. Okay. Yeah, no, that's fair. They're all pretty close. And yeah, and you mentioned Bryant, that's a tough one. I think I probably get Brian a little bit of an edge there too, but they're also close. Bing Gamble is going to play some first base for the Mariners so he could pick up eligibility there. Not sure how much it helps, but flexibility is always a good thing.

Robinson Canoe says he's been playing at less than 100% since coming back from the hamstring injury he suffered in May. And in 45 games since returning, a 260309-442 slash line. So it kind of looks like he's playing at less than 100%, although he didn't show it last night. The All-Star game with the winning home run there. He still must start. Luke Weaver's been sent back to the miners, and the Yankees have released Chris Carter,

so that chapter of his career is over. We'll see if he latches on elsewhere. Now, the Yankees are actually looking for a first baseman. I guess they decided Chris Carter wasn't the solution there, but there's thought to have some interest in Justin Boar. Tommy Joseph is also supposed to be on the market, which we've been waiting all week for Reese Hoskins to arrive. Sounds like it's going to depend on Joseph getting traded.

So hopefully the Yankees can step up there or somebody else who needs another bat in their lineup, be it at first base or D.H. or whatever. The twins are looking at Jose Cantana, Sunny Gray. Dan Strayley, that's the first I've seen him mentioned, as a trade chip during this time of year. but how likely do you think these players are to get traded? Kentana, Gray, Strayley. You know, Chris Archer's been mentioned.

Yeah, I think Kentana be very likely. You know, the White Sox, I don't see them having any incentive to keep them around, and it seems like they could get a really good haul for him. Sunny Gray, I think probably as well. I mean, the A's are not going to be contending. Dan Sterley, I don't think he's going to get traded. And I actually, I think it was, I can't remember. remember enough as Clark Spencer or Barry Jackson, but there was some report that had him listed among

the players that the Marlins weren't going to put on the market. Yeah. So maybe the twins, you know, would like him, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's available. So they're going to cost a pretty a pretty penny, all of these guys. And Chris Archer included, because part of the reason teams are looking into them is because they have several years of team control and in ways that, you know, fairly team friendly. So these wouldn't be just rentals for contenders, and that's why the interest is so high. It also is incentive for those teams to hold on,

or at least wait out to get a really good return for them. I think what's going to be interesting, though, as the trade chatter really begins to heat up over the next two weeks, is, you know, obviously there are a lot of teams still in the race in the AL. the NL looks kind of halfway decided already. There are not nearly as many teams in the mix. I know the Brewers are probably going to be looking to add. The Rockies are holding on to that second wildcard spot,

and that could become a tight race. But I feel like if you play in a league-specific format, where players, when they're traded across leagues, they're either added to your player pool or removed from your player pool, I expect to see a lot more additions to the AL than the NL. That totally makes sense. Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, look at the teams that you've mentioned,

and I know some teams you're about to mention in some upcoming items. It's all the AL. Yeah, Dee Gordon, Angels, Blue Jays, Royals, all teams that need a second baseman. So he's drawing interest from them. The Red Sox are interested in Pat Nishak, which, you know, obviously he's not going to unseat Craig Kimbril, but Nishak's getting traded, I think, one way or another.

So that talk of maybe him being inserted in the Phillies closer role is well past. And Hector Nairus has done a good job there anyway. You know, Scott, I'm glad to hear you say that. Because, you know, I've been making the case that Nairus is really underrated and his struggles have been a little bit overblown. So, yeah, and I agree. And, you know, for better or for worse, I mean, it seems like Pete McAnon has settled on with him as the closer. Okay, so let's get into the meat of the show here now, 20 minutes in.

This is my first time hosting the fantasy baseball podcast, so I'm not the expert at setting a pace like Adam Azer is. But we want to get into second half expectations, specifically players who we think are going to perform either better or worse in the second half. We could call these buy low, sell high. You categorize it a number of different ways, take whatever you want to from it. But basically, we think they're going to be, let's start with the betters.

Who do you think Al is going to be better in the second half? Give us one name. Wow, because I got several here. You know, I'll throw out Tanner Rourke, because I feel like out of the names on my list, that's the one that probably people have given up on the most or on the verge of giving up on. But I like his chances as well as anybody's to bounce back in the second half, because really his struggles have been mostly confined to lefties. And granted, that's, you know, still a sizable portion of who he's got to face.

But, you know, he's had some ups and downs in his career, but he certainly had enough sustained ups that I think he can rediscover whatever it was that he had, you know, last year in particular that allowed him to be so successful at limiting both righties and lefties. And he's also, he's got the lowest strand rate among qualifiers for start. So even as disappointing as he's been, the results probably should have been a little better than they were. And I think there's room for him to improve beyond that. His ownership has dropped to 71% in CBS Sports Leagues.

I think that's kind of high for how he's performed, actually. How do you feel about the walk rate? Because I know he did fine with a high walk rate last year, but it didn't seem like he could continue to walk hitters. that rate and be successful and that has continued. Yeah. Well, I think it would be sort of wishful thinking to, you know, you could hope maybe that he improves the walk rate or becomes a little bit more of a strikeout pitcher. But, you know, if you're going to bank on Roark, I think you've got to do it in the way,

you know, you've got to expect him to have success in the way he's done in the past, which is to do well with balls and play. And that's probably the way to succeed that gives you the slimmest margin for error. So while it'll be nice, if Roark walked fewer batters, I don't expect it. I do expect that he'll improve his command, particularly against lefties, and get more outs on balls and play that way. So top what pitcher do you see in being next year? Top, I mean, in the second half, top 50? Could he get back in there?

I think 50. I think, in fact, you know, 40 at least. When you first asked the question, I was saying 30 or 30 might get a lot. I think he's outside my top 70 now rest of season. I'm going to make, I'm going to get caveat here, Scott. And, you know what I mean? I think this is, you know, also obviously I like Roark better than you do.

Yeah. But, I mean, there's, you know, as we've talked about, you know, more than a year ago, when I was still doing this podcast with you guys regularly. I mean, there's just not very many reliable starting pitchers. No. So if you see any upside anywhere for somebody, I mean, they kind of get in that conversation for top 30, top 40. because there's just so many starting pitchers

that are really only good for streaming. Yeah, a lot of malleability, I think, in that 40 to 90 range. Absolutely. So I think Furo can rise above that and at least get in the top 40. Okay. One guy I like for the second half is Rugnett O'Dore,

who we've talked about a few times on this podcast as being a buy low. But even now, there is not a lot different in his batted ball profile from a year ago, there are a lot more infield fly balls. But to me, that seems like a small adjustment that he could make to stop hitting so many infield fly.

It wouldn't take much to reduce that rate. And then what would be left is basically the exact same player. We saw last year, his bab-ip is only 244. I think there's a lot of ground for Rugnet O'Dore to make up in the second half. Yeah, I've got him on my list, too. But I, you know, when you asked me to pick one, and I was looking through the list, he was one I knew I wasn't going to throw out there as one of my top ones because I've got some concerns about Odor. Now, one of the concerns I had coming into the season was whether or not he could replicate the power he showed last year. And he's pretty much doing that and, you know, and getting the stolen bases.

I'm not, I'm not sure last year wasn't the fluke year in terms of batting average because he's got really strong pull tendencies, particularly on ground ball. He's batting under 200 on ground balls so far this year. I mean, that's extreme. I'm not sure he'll get back up to a normal batting average on grounders, which would be around 240. So I do think O'Dor will improve. I've got him on my list, but I'm not sure he's going to improve as much as last year's stats would indicate.

So you think he's basically a low babbip guy. Last year he had a 297 babbip, which contributed to a 271 batting average. Do you think those numbers were kind of high for his batted ball profile? I think, yeah, I think for his profile, I do think they are. I think if he's 250 rest of the way, that's about what I would expect. So who's another player you see improving in the second half? I like Eric Thames.

Okay, yeah. And the improvement is more against what he's done since April. Yeah, sure. I think, you know, the production was so front-loaded for him that, you know, his stats don't, you know, necessarily scream out as, you know, they belong to a player who's got to improve. But since April 26th, he's hit 206. And while I do think that Thames might be a low-babit player, he's been since that time at 248, 248 Babbip over a 59 game stretch. I think he's going to improve there. And meanwhile, he's been among the leaders during that period in terms of barrel rate.

So he hits a lot of fly balls, but I think, you know, given that they're well struck, you're certainly going to see him at least maintain the power that he's shown. And there might be enough power there to even, you know, bump up the batting average a bit. And certainly above 206 where he's been over 59 games. Yeah, I have absolutely no objection. to that one. I love the quality of the contact he makes. He still walks at a high rate. I think Thames is

a good player to buy right now. Of course, we've been saying that for about six weeks, but Mani Machado, it's almost too easy, I think, to say he's going to improve in the second half, but it's kind of a similar situation as

Rignette O'Dore to me, where just he still looks like the same old Mani Machado and just isn't getting the same results. Yeah, I agree. I mean, it's a head scratcher why he struggled so much, but, you know, I can only draw the conclusion that he's going to get, you know, back to normal or close to it from

from here on forward. His babbip has been very consistent over the years, kind of unusually consistent, right, in that 295 to 325 range, 239 this year for Mani Machado. So great by Lo, as we've been saying all along, and shortstop eligible. Who else is on your list? I'm going to go to another pitcher here, Danny Duffy, because I find him interesting, and I've just recently kind of flipped my position on him because, you know, I thought, well, okay, the strikeouts aren't really there this year, and this is a guy who allows a lot of

hard contact, a lot of airborne contact, and the ballpark can only help him so much. Scott, I don't think Duffy's giving up a home run at home this year. I know I cited that stat recently. I think it's still valid. But I think that the home run rate on the road should improve going forward. And as much as hard contact as he allows, I'm not sure why he's giving up as many home runs away from Kaufman as he has. But the real reason I think Duffy's going to rebound is because I, you know, I just kind of took the mediocre strikeout rate as, oh, this is regression to what Danny Duffy was before last year.

But, you know, when you look at the components of what makes up the strikeouts, getting swings and misses, freezing batters and getting foul balls. All those numbers, all those rates are really similar to last year. So it looks like just an absolute fluke that Danny Duffy isn't striking up batters again this year. Okay, Al and I are not alone anymore. We are joined by Chris Towers here, jumping in mid-podcast. I don't know if you heard Al's analysis of Danny Duffy, Chris. I've been trying to figure out Danny Duffy all year for the exact same reasons.

that Al, uh, Al, can you hear me? I can hear you great, Chris. Okay, I've been trying to figure out Danny Duffin for the same reasons that you've had kind of that, that issue with the strike rate where the swinging strike rate or the college strike rate,

these things all have held similar. And I just, it's something that I've struggled with with Aaronola, where like he doesn't have a great strikeout, swinging strike rate, but he gets so many strikeouts. And I just wonder what, how predictive are these things? These things that we look at and say, well, he's got a high swinging strike rate, so the strikeouts will come.

will they so i you know i i think they're predictive i haven't done a study or seen a study on that but a lot of anecdotal evidence tells me that there's a there's a probably a really strong correlation between certainly between swinging strikes and and strikeouts um but you do you know you mentioned nola chris and there are those exceptions so um yeah i i feel like they are pretty fair indicators because if somebody's uh whiff rate isn't jiving with their out rate, usually you can look to, you know, the called strike rate, you know, in the case of Nola or, you know, recently Rick Porcelo be a good example of that. Yeah. And say, okay, that's where the strikeouts are coming from.

Or even earlier in this year, Wade Miley, remember when he was getting all those strikeouts and, you know, there were several analysts saying this is complete smoke and mirrors. Well, it wasn't really. He was painting the corners really effectively and getting a lot of foul balls. Now, that stopped. and the strikeout stop, but there was an explanation for it. So, yeah, I do think that they're predictive. Chris, do you have any players that you're looking to be better in the second half, some potential by-low candidates, if you will?

I'll steal one. We had Ben Lindbergh on on Tuesday. His obvious one was Kyle Schwerber. I think that one's – I know he's got the issues with lefties for sure. He's got the contact issues, but his contact rate this season is actually better than it was during the 2015 season when he was awesome. He's swinging fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. And there was a stretch in about mid-May

where the hard hit rate had come back and I was just like, Kyle Schwerber is going to be the mini-Bambino we thought he was. And then it just never came. The Babbup stayed low. I think Kyle Schwerber is going to have a huge second half. I think he went down to AAA, figured it out. I think he's going to be a monster.

is Manny Machado too obvious? Yeah, well, we already mentioned him. We mentioned Machado. Because I keep getting, I still get like, what's wrong with Manny Machado? Is it crazy to drop Manny Machado? Yes, it's crazy to drop Manny Machado. Don't do it. Basically, I'm sure you guys hit this already, but basically every indicator tells you,

if he's not Manny Machado, he might even be a little bit better version of Manny Machado, or at least a Manny Machado, who has adapted to this new crazy offensive environment. It's coming. It's coming with Mani Machado. And getting back to Schwerber, it's crazy to me to think that Kyle Schwerber, for as much as we obsess over him, we're obsessing over a career 210 hitter now. And obviously there are a lot of factors going into that. Before the season, you know, I made my, in one of our preview podcasts,

are we sure Kyle Schwerber is better than Jock Peterson? And that's one where like I might have been both right and wrong. like no we're not sure if kow shorber's better than jock peterson he might not be but neither's been very good this season so it might not have mattered anyway all right alh do you have another player who you're looking to be better in the second half uh you know you mentioned matt carpenter before i i think he's a candidate to improve his batting average and um at least maintain the power that he's had so um yeah i'm a pretty strong believer that mac Carpenter is going to have a much better second half than his first half.

Because really the power gains are there still for Carpenter. Walk rate, it's still great. Yeah, it just seems like he's had some, in need of some batting average correction, like you were saying. And part of that's the fly balls. He's hitting a lot more fly balls, which can lead to a lower batting average or a lower batting average on balls in play. But he's such a talented hitter.

That's one of those situations, and it's kind of the same thing with Mary Machado, where it's just like, bet on the elite guy. Now, I had Kyle Seeger on my list here. I could get into how consistent he's been and how, you know, I actually went through and looked at fantasy points per game, figured out what that was for every player in the first half, which is, you know, kind of an eye-opening process.

It's such a simple thing, fantasy points per game, but it really puts into perspective how players have performed relative to each other in a way that total fantasy points doesn't, because that's not, what goes into, total fantasy points isn't always a sign of how good a player's actually been because of time missed and everything. Kyle Schorber has not had a very good year,

is what it boils down to. He's averaged 2.5-ish fantasy points per game this year, worse than Joey Gallo, right there with Nicholas Castellanos. He has not had a very good year, but as consistent as he is, and what he's doing peripherally. He looks like the same Kyle Seeger also, so he's a player I'm looking to buy low on.

How do you feel, Al? And you Maxi Castellanos, I would argue, and I've been saying it all season long, waited for his improvement, but I think it's still to come. Right there with you, Al. I love that hard hit rate. He's still third, I think, in hard hit rate.

Yeah, he's right up there and has been all season. And if you look at what's really interesting is Comerica Park's not a great place to hit. It's a pretty lousy place to hit. But if you look at the, expected Wobah number on baseball Savant. I think the jury's still out on how predictive that number is, but it's really interesting that I think three of the

top 20 in the biggest difference between their expected Woba and their actual Woba are Nicholas Castellano McGill Cabrera and Victor Martinez, who actually peripherally doesn't look bad this season. All right, I know where Chris stands on Todd Frazier. We'll stick with their basement for a minute. He's a jag. You know, it's funny.

you know, if I can mention fantasy points per game again where Todd Frazier shows up in there, surprisingly high on the list. But I'll get to that in a minute. I'm curious about Al's thoughts on Todd Frazier because I think Todd Frazier is due for some serious correction here in a way that could make him a borderline top 10 third basement of fantasy. And Chris thinks he's just old now

and not going to be as useful as we want him to be. I think he's just a one-trick, in a league where every single player can do that trick now. Well, we've seen him be much better than a 210 hitter in the past. Where do you stand out? Yeah, pretty much with Chris on this one. I mean, I wouldn't say he's older washed up, but I absolutely agree with the part that the skill that's given him

the most fantasy value in the past, that a lot more people have caught up with him on that. And I do suspect that maybe his best power-hitting day are, I want to see behind them. I don't want to be dramatic about it. I mean, I don't think it's like a big decline, but I don't really have great hope that, you know, he's going to have something close to a career year in terms of power.

And I don't have a lot of faith in a big batting average rebound either. Well, I mean, the bad, the bad bit is so exaggeratedly low. It's 218. He was 236 last year, 271 the year before, so there's room for growth. Big time. But like... I understand he's a low Babbip guy,

but there's a difference between a low Babbup and a 218 Babbitt or whatever you said it was. But if he hits 240 with 34 home runs and 85 RBI and 90 runs and like... That's good. That's useful. But it's... It doesn't stand out at the third base position anymore. So... Yeah, it's like to elevate him over like Ryan Healy, you know?

Yeah, like it's very Ryan Healy. Oh, he'll be better than Ryan Healy. He's already been much. much better than Ryan Healy in terms of fantasy points per game because what we're not mentioning here is walks are way up, strikeouts are way down. He was 2.90 fantasy points per game in the first half, which was better than Evan Longoria, better than Josh Donaldson, better than Josh Harrison, Ehio Hsuarez, who got off to a great start. In fairness, I have him ranked over all of those guys except for Josh Donaldson, I think. But that's with Frazier being a 213 hitter. So if there's

any improvement at all. You could see how he could gain some serious ground in that category. All right, are there any, I'm going to list off since we've been so hitter focused here. I'm going to list off some pitchers who I think will be better in the second half. And if there's one you guys want to focus on, feel free to jump in. I have Trevor Cahill, Jeff Samarja, Rick Porcelo, Rich Hill, who really seems to have turned things around, Jose Cantana, Masahiro, Tanaka, and Justin Verlander. They're all on my list of players who I think will be better in the second half.

Anyone you want to talk about there? I did at Porcelo on my list, and I referred already the fact that he's started to turn things around last four starts, which is not a particularly long stretch, but I am encouraged that that called strike rate is back up. He's throwing a ton of strikes. So while it's a relatively small sample, he's showing us, he's giving some numbers that look much more like 2016. Yeah, and I don't think he's going to be 2016 Rick Porcelo again. I think that ship is sailed. But, I mean, in terms of giving up one of the highest bad bips of any pitcher in baseball this year,

and the last couple starts, we've seen him show some improvement. It's about relocating, getting his pitches consistently down in the strike zone again, which he seems to have figured out lately. and if he can just be kind of a above average Babbip guy instead of a ridiculously high Babb Bip guy, then I think it's particularly without team backing him. He can still be a pretty reliable starter in fantasy. This is the one thing I do struggle with is he came up as the sinker baller

and that was the kind of idea that we had of Rick Porcelo. And then this big jump and strikeout rate that we saw over the last couple of years came as a result of mixing in a lot more four-scene fast. basketballs, especially up in the zone to get that whiff rate up. And he's just, I think he's struggling with that, just walking that fine line of not having great stuff. And this is a line that I think Aranola struggles with a lot too. It's just like, doesn't have great stuff.

And so, or doesn't have the great fastball, maybe. Doesn't have a great swing and miss stuff. And so that fine line between getting called strikes on the corner or, you know, getting rocked and having to pitch more closer to the heart of the plate, it makes for some inherent inconsistency and inherent unpredictability. So kind of the Marco Estrada. I mean, Marco Estrada is the extreme version, I guess. And he's taken that to an even more ridiculous extreme this year with the strikeout rate.

But yeah, that's kind of the way I look at him. Not a predictable pitcher, not someone that I can look at and say, I know what he's going to do against this matchup. All right, let's switch gears here and talk about some of the players who we think are going to be worse in the second half, sell highs potentially. Who's on that list for you, Al? I've got Eric Hosmer on there,

and I probably wouldn't have a month ago, but he's been for a lot of power lately. And my rationale for this is just basically, I feel like I've seen this movie before, where, you know, Hosmer, I think it was early last season where he started off with a big power binge, but he always seems to settle in

as, you know, a 20-Homer guy who hits a lot of groundball. And at this stage in his career, I think that's what we're going to see. And I think that this, you know, PowerBinge is going to see its end very soon. Yeah, no, I don't think I have Eric Cosmer inside of my top 30 at first base, which is maybe a little bit too low. But then I look at the guys ahead of him. And I maybe he's more trustworthy than, I don't know, Ryan Healy or someone else in that range. but I just, I look at it and I think, like,

Eric Cosmer's so unexciting at a position where I need an exciting player. And so, like, he's one of these guys. We've talked about it a lot where he finishes the season as a top 15 first baseman pretty much every year. But he's never actually a top 15 first baseman at any point during the season. He's just kind of, just through attrition at the rest of the position. He ends up in the top 15. And I just, I find him so unexciting.

Yeah, unexciting, I think, is how I'd characterize. Hosmer as well. He's fine. It's, yeah, and it's hard at this, I mean, we were talking, Alan and I earlier about that 40 to 90 range

at starting pitcher and how flexible, you know, how quickly pitchers can move up and down that list. First base is kind of that same way in the 10 through 20 range. Yeah. You know, and so it's hard among the Justin Bores,

the Logan Morrison's, um, Justin smokes. These new coming first baseman who we don't, maybe not totally believe in. Yeah, the entire top prospects from 2009, basically, have all been great this season at first base, and they're all kind of the same guy, right? Like Smoke, Alonzo, Logan Morrison. It's been very strange.

All right, who else you got for us, Al? Well, I feel like this is pretty obvious. Maybe we can just blow through this one, but it's worth matching Zach Cozart that we've already started to see the regression from him. and I think it's just going to keep coming. There was nothing peripherally from him that suggested. The only thing that that suggested that maybe he was a very different hitter was just the improved plate discipline, but I didn't understand how exactly that was translating in the crazy power numbers and the extremely high babb. Yeah.

No, I think it's fair to assume that Cozart's going to regress. And I have another shortstop eligible player who I feel the same way about, Gene Seguerra, the power hasn't been what it was last year. The stolen base rate hasn't been what it's been last year. And so he's not the player he was last year. And yet he's gotten, he's been treated the same way most of this year because the batting average has been so high. 349, he leads the AL at the break.

But the BABIP is 399. So I believe Gene Seeger, I don't think it's, you know, I don't think anyone's really disputing that Gene Ciguro is going to regress in the second half. But like with Cozart, because he's a shortstop, how much do you care? Yeah, you're still going to start. I feel a lot of the same way about Elvis Andrus. Like, I don't think Elvis Andrews is all of a sudden a 2040 guy. But I don't know.

I give him a better chance. I think he's good. I think he'll be worse. But not to the point where I'm like, sell Elvis Andrews right now. sell Gene Seguer right now. I still think those guys, because the position stinks outside what, the top eight, I think it's like, I'd rather have him than Addison Russell. I'd rather have both of those guys than Zach Cozart, guys that have been starting caliber shortstop in the past, but I just, I don't know what you do with them. I don't think there's anything actionable

about that. I want to weigh in on the Elvis Andrews thing because I think the difference there, like this environment we're in right now drastic changes in batter profiles home runs up everywhere like I have a hard time shortchanging any players home run gains unless there's a corresponding drop like if the players gaining home runs and losing fly balls

that doesn't seem like a sustainable formula and we have seen some of that Mark Reynolds comes to mind Travis Shaw losing fly balls balls and gaining home runs. So both of those guys give me some skepticism, but I don't think I can rule out Elvis Andrews is suddenly a pretty good power guy. Where do you stand on that, Al? Yeah, no, I'm bought into the, to the, you know, the flyball revolution and the power increase

for Elvis Andrews. And, you know, just going back to Shaw for a second, he is a weird case. Yes. But I think he's just got legitimately more power this year. So he doesn't necessarily need. need to, you know, create it the way he did the Red Sox with, you know, with five balls. I've wanted to troll Heath about it because Heath was the Travis Shaw guy, had him as a top 15 third baseman. The only time Travis Shaw got drafted in any of our leagues was when Heath was in it. And he's right. Like, Travis Shaw has been awesome. He's been a top four third baseman, I think, this season. He's, he was our pick for Fantasy All-Star third base for Heath and I. But he like the reason he was right about Travis Shaw has not been the reason Travis Shaw has been good

but like you said he's been and then Miller Park's such a good place for lefties to hit for power anyway that like he might be able to hit 30 home runs with a 30% fly ball rate who else you got Al worse than the second half worse in the second half um all right I like this one Robbie Ray. Chris loves that one. You and Chris are on the same wavelength there. I miss you. And talking about it being actionable,

Chris, maybe you come down more strongly on this than I do because the only action I can really see with Robbie Ray is to try to sell them high. Scott and our, and Chris, you're in the league too in our Dynasty League. I traded them.

And it probably doesn't really look like a sell high because what I got in return was Carlos Rodon. and Dansby Swanson, but I really needed, I wanted a young shortstop with some upside. And looking at the rosters, that seemed to be my best opportunity to get that. Plus, I really like Rodon as a breakout guy. That was coming off his big swinging strike game, too. Not as good the final start before the break, but. Right, yeah, well, that was in Colorado.

But, yeah, the two starts. And actually, I made that trade during that start. Oh. And not because of it, right? Just coincidentally. With the 25 swinging strikes. But, you know, getting back to Robbie Ray. So, I mean, in terms of an action, yeah, I do, you know, I still think he'll, he's must start whenever whatever regression happens.

But I just think that, you know, with the wildness and the propensity to allow, allow hard contact when he does allow contact, he should be paying a higher price for that than he is. He's become a more extreme version of Robbie Ray this season. The strikeout rate up. The walk rate, up. The fly ball rate, up. And that was the weird thing is he's throwing this curveball that apparently, I think he learned it from Zach Grinke, and it's become a new part of his repertoire.

And usually pitchers will throw the curveball as more of a ground ball pitch. It's not a swing and miss pitch. It's a pitch that you try to get weak contact, and yet hard contact rate is 42%, which is insane for a pitcher. Like, you don't see numbers like that for pitchers. His ground ball rate is down below four. 40%. So it's just, there's all these changes going on. It's just, I still think he's Michael Paneda, basically.

Like, he's Michael Pineda West. Oh, I don't know. I mean, you can allow hard to, when you allow no contact. Well, no, actually, I will say, I will say, I will say this for him. The thing that might separate him from Michael Paneda is Michael Panetta is, I don't want to psychoanalyze, but he pitches as if he's afraid to walk people. and I think you can get to a point where you're too hitable as a result of that. And say what you want about Robbie Ray. The man's got flaws. He is not afraid to walk people. So I mean, Robbie Ray, to me, like we were saying, how hard it is to find a reliable pitcher, Al. I can call Gene Seguera and Zach Kozart regression candidates or whatever candidates to get worse in the second half.

I have a hard time saying about that about a pitcher who I'm more or less believe in, because you were even saying it's that Robbie Roy. Ray's going to be a must start, whatever he regresses to. Yeah, I just think he's going to be a must start as a four-e-a-a-a-guy, probably. So a couple names here. I have Stephen Mats on my list, who I know Chris and I both are down on. Meet you three. Just not get, he's gotten good results, but he hasn't gotten the swings and misses,

even apart from strikeouts, just the swinging strikes have not been there since he returned from the DL, not throwing the slider as much. Well, he's basically not throwing the slider. Yeah. And he's said that that's a conscious decision because he thinks that's why he got hurt. Starlin Castro, do you see anything different there for him, Al, or do you agree he's a regression candidate in the second half? Coming back from the DL, by the way. Yeah, and I thought about putting him on my list, and I didn't because essentially I will treat him the same way, which is I think he'll continue to be really good in homestands.

Great power numbers at Yankee Stadium, you know, since becoming a Yankee. So I think that the overall numbers are misleading Because when he's on the road most of the time I don't want to start him So I think if you can find somebody Who buys the overall numbers as something you can get every week Yeah, I think that's a good deal to make But no, I don't think he'll necessarily be different

Or worse in the second half than he was in the first half Well, power, I see a difference between the kind of power he was hitting for this year And what he was last year So just maybe to provide a little more perspective on this, use Adam Azor's old trick. Would you take Jonathan Scope or Starlin Castro rest of season? Yeah, Scopes got his own splits issues, but I'll take scope. Ian Hap or Starlin Castro?

I'll take Ian Hap for sure. Jed Jerko or Starlin Castro. Now you got me. I think I'll take Jerko. Padroia or Castro. Strong Castro. Okay. Yeah, I think we're in about the same place there.

Either of you have one other hitter who's going to get worse in the second half that you're dying to get in there. Can I throw one more pitcher out there? Yeah, sorry, hitter or pitcher player. Let's piss off the entire city of Phoenix and just throw out Taiwan Walker, who appears to be having the breakout with the career best ERA, I believe, career best whip. It's not for real, guys. I wanted it to be. I believed it in spring training. He was throwing this new slider that was supposed to be.

And it's just, he's a one-pitch pitcher. He's not getting swings and misses. He's getting fewer swings and misses than before. His secondary stuff just stinks. He just has bad pitches besides his fastball. I couldn't even, like I haven't seen him as having been good to this point. So I had a hard time. I'm trying to sell.

You've been considering him among the players to get worse. Yeah. All right, let's answer some questions here. with Al. Some, our Twitter users have sent us some questions, specifically with Al in mine. So let's see what he has to say to this.

Al, who's the better pickup? This is from, uh, that's just Gio 86. Who's a better pickup rest of season? Julio Taran, Rick Porcelo, Trevor Cahill.

Uh, oh, I'd say Cahill. Um, and like I, I've, you know, said a few things about Porcelo already.

I think he's trending in the right direction. I'm not totally sure that's going to last. Chris has talked about the inconsistency. I do worry about that. Cahill, he just seems to have hit a new gear this year. So he's the one I trust the most. I love Trevor Cahill. I love Zach Godley,

but if Trevor Cahill hadn't gotten hurt, I think I might love him more for the same reason. Elite ground ball rate. And suddenly the swing and miss rate is shot way up. I've used his breaking ball a lot more. Him and Godley both. But Cahill, you know, double time. It's shot up.

So if he can continue that and he got a lot of swing. swinging strikes in his last start. He is my favorite pitcher of these three. But I'm having a hard time. Like, better pickup? Julio Tehran and Rick Porcelo have been dropped in your league? That hasn't happened in any of my league. That's the key thing with me is that, like, I might think Trevor Cahill's a better

pitcher. I'm not sure. I'm undecided. Yeah. But he's less likely to get picked up than those guys. So the opportunity cost in picking up Trevor Cahill may be higher. Although I guess if you think he's better, it doesn't matter. Okay.

It sounds like it's probably a shallower league then, in which case, I think, you know, Cahill, well, I'd say definitely has the least established track record. You know, go for the upside. Yeah, that doesn't matter. Track record doesn't matter as much in a shallow league if you're going to have that caliber of player. And let's be honest, Rick Porcell's track record is one good season more than Trevor Cahill's, basically. Okay, this is from at J.A. Carlin. Not sure how he wants me to say that, but that's who it is. Okay, once Chris Davis is activated, would you prefer Chris Davis, Matt Adams, or Yonder Alonzo?

This is the Orioles Chris Davis, of course. It's pretty close, but I'll go for Alonzo there. Again, like I was saying about Cahill, I feel like this year, he's been very consistent. And, you know, so the gains that he's made in terms of power and the switch to being more flyball-oriented hitter. I think that those are clearly legit. And I'll take that over Davis's inconsistency. And I already forgot. I'm sorry, who the third.

Matt Adams. And Adams, too. Yeah, you know, they're all going to, I think, provide you with some power. But I feel the most secure in Alonzo doing so. Yeah, I kind of feel, I mean, part of me is like, well, Chris Davis is clearly the most established. And he's must own. But, yeah, Yonder Alonzo is such a clear. beneficiary of the flyball revolution and I just think offers so much more peripherally it's going to

be more reliable I'm kind of leaning that way too this one is from at dan hoppin what's going on with yonis Cespitas should owners try to sell high based on name value he's been pretty blah since coming back from the d l I agree he's been pretty blah since coming back from the dL and I feel like the way the outfield landscape has changed this year, almost as dramatic as first base, maybe even a little more so. I don't think Yonder Alonzo is the clear standout. Yoanna Sesspetus is the clear standout we have come to know him to be the last couple

years. I agree that the landscape has improved, but we've seen him have these ebbs in his career before, and I think that we've seen great production from him far too recently and over the longer stretch far too often to discount him. So I feel like it's a bad time to trade. I think he just got to stash him until he pulls out of it and probably gets healthier, would be my assumption. This is from at Lloyd Kuy Walker. Who has the better career when the dust settles in three years?

Byron Buxton or Dansby Swanson, a long-term question for you? Swanson or Buxton? Who do you like more over the next three years? In real baseball, it's Buxton, right? I don't know about that. I mean, the defense and base running. I think possibly in fantasy, too. And I just talked about trading for Swanson in our dynasty league.

But no, actually, I feel like Buxton could be really close. I mean, he's just got to, you know, improve those contact skills. And I don't know how much he's going to do that, but he's still young enough to do it. We saw him go on a power tear late last season. Granted, that was with expanded rosters, but I think he could definitely, at minimum, be a really pretty scary good power speed source. Yeah, I'm surprised to hear you both say that.

You guys have a lot more patience than I do. I'm giving, I think every player deserves a pass for their rookie season. So, you know, Danesby Swanson, just because he hasn't failed us to the extent Buxton has over and over again, I'm going to go with him. This is from Adam White 1307. Does Al Melchior still love Rick Porcelo? A reference.

Well, since I've talked about it more than I think anybody else on this show today, maybe I still do. I think you do. I think you do. All right. So I want to move on from these questions. We're going to close out the podcast with this. These are some debates we've been having, Adam, Heath, Chris, and I over the course of this season. Nothing to do with baseball.

Ridiculous debates we've been having with no clear resolution. We've been asking our guests this all week. We're going to ask you, Al Milkiore, to resolve these debates for us. And I'm going to begin with the toughest one. This is a four-part question. What is your cereal, breakfast cereal, Mount Rushmore, Al-Milke. And just to point out, both Jonah Carey and Ben Lindbergh independently gave us Raisin brand as their favorite cereal, even though... One of their favorites.

They're number one. Even though neither of them particularly likes raisins. It's very strange. I feel like Raisinbra needs to sponsor our show. Is this based on personal preference or sort of... We did personal preference. Serial stature. Personal preference.

Yeah, I understand because Mount Rushmore, the most representative cereals is probably what that should represent. But just what are your four favorite serials? You're shopping. You got space for four boxes. Definitely Golden Grams. Okay. the must have face there on the serial Mount Rushmore.

That gets difficult. Boy, oh, boy. You know what? I will put Raisin brand on mine because I actually like it a lot. Yeah. Old Graham's Raisin brand. Go with the frosted flakes. And honeynut Cheerios.

There you go. Great grains, fruits. Great grains, fruits, dates and walnuts replaced Raisin brand for me. Just a much better, just a much. I don't know, like, great grains, raisins, dates, and walnuts. Great grains, raisins, dates, and walnuts. Every bite is so good proportion of grains and fruits.

You don't get that bite with too many raisins or too much brand. Anyway, is Moneyball... I've got to make a substitution here. Okay. How could I forget about life? Life instead of the frosting flakes. Cinnamon life's pretty good, too. I go back and forth, which I like more, but those are good cereals.

All right, is Moneyball a top five sports movie? I'd be hard-pressed to give you five right now, but I don't love the movie. I love the book. Really? I thought you liked the movie. I thought it was very close to the book, actually. It was, it followed it. I left out some scenes.

Left out the draft room scene at the beginning, but I don't know. I thought it followed the book closely. Well, you take out the scene with the daughter playing the song that hadn't been written yet. Yeah, that was kind of weird. I don't know why that's such a hang-up for people. I mean, who cares? All right. Is Aerosmith a good band?

No. No, all right. Ham or turkey on your sandwich? Yeah, ham or turkey. Ham or turkey? Yes. Unanimous. I don't know, Al.

I don't know. Raisins is kind of as getting back to what Chris alluded to earlier. Raisins, yay or nay? Yay. Ooh, interesting. Just by themselves? Raisin brand on my Mount Rushmore. Is it, you like popping them in your mouth like nature's candy, or do you just, do you like them mixed in with other things?

Yeah, I'm good either way. I prefer it mixed in with other things, but yeah, I'll eat them straight. Because I don't like eating them straight, but raisin brand, I mean, when you get that bite with it perfectly proportioned, the bitter bran and this just burst of sweetness in it, it works out great. Raisin has its place, all right? Is Die Hard a Christmas movie? Oldy, but a goody. I think we've gotten your input on this before. You know my answer to this, Scott. I haven't seen it. Oh, yes, of course. Why are we asking you about how you feel about Moneyball? You're no movie authority. You never see anything. That's right. I couldn't name five sports movies or baseball movies.

Are the traditional Easter candy? Peeps. Are they good or aren't they? No, they're gross. Appropriate answer. I think I'm the only one who likes Peeps here. Did you hear what Scott did with a peep? No, no. Did you see what I did? Because it went on on Twitter. I vaguely remember something, but I mean, you're going to have to refresh my memory. He dissolved a peep in his cup of tea to sweeten it.

Yeah. He drowned a peep. Yeah. And I did it. You know, I was particularly grotesque about it. I was treating it like who framed Roger Rabbit, the dip. I don't know if you've seen that movie, Adam. Of course not.

Yeah, no. Basically, the peep just dissolved slow. into my tea and it worked well as a sweetener. I think peeps are great. Sugar-covered marshmallow. Why do people hate them so much? I don't know. It's the factory reject marshmallows, though.

All right, this has been fun now. Thank you for your input on movies and food and baseball. It was good hearing from you. Glad to hear things are going well for you out in Montana and all your baseball ventures out there. Well, great, great to be podcasting with you guys again and had a great time. So thanks so much for having me.

All right, and thanks everybody for listening during this week where we don't have regular baseball action. Hope you enjoyed all the guests. We will talk to you again soon.