Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/16: Multi-Dongs, Marquez and More Monday Madness (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 16, 2019

A number of players hit multiple HRs yesterday, but what was Fantasy relevant (3:00)? And how about the year from Clayton Kershaw (8:00)!? Pretty impressive. We also talk about Nolan Arenado's struggles (11:15) and debate Domingo German vs. German Marquez (17:00) ... News and notes (22:30) including trade rumors, then it's time for "Hey, Real Quick" (28:00) as we debate LAD OFs, Freddie Freeman vs. Mookie Betts and more ... A quick round of your emails (33:00) with questions about Nick Senzel and Khris Davis, players to consider dropping (40:30), deep league dudes (44:40), yesterday's stud SPs (48:00) like Blake Snell and Lucas Giolito plus a fun Luis Castillo discussion and Team Name Tuesday to end the show ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled and fast. Alvarez and toward him. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris.

All right, it's a team name Tuesday, a regular Tuesday edition also of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Welcome, what's up, everyone. It's Adam, Chris, and Scott here on FBT. getting your emails at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. You know, I got to tell you, I called Chris Towers this morning. He seemed like he was in kind of a bad mood. He was a little mean to me. Not going to lie.

What's that? Are you okay, Chris? This is just who I am, Adam. I don't appreciate you, like, projecting your insecurities on me. What? Just because I'm trying to be punctual. And, you know, I don't want to waste time on the phone. I got to get places.

I guess so. Was he mean or was it Kurt? Was he Kurt? He was Kurt. He was Kurt. Being Kurt is kind of mean. It was Kurt Kassali. Kurt Chris Kassali.

And, you know, I think Chris might be a little upset because I imagine he's a Janus on Tidacompo fan. And we got some video, embarrassing video of Janus. So if you're not watching on our YouTube channel, make sure you go there and check this out. Let's roll it. All right. Let's see what we got going on here. Janus was at Yankee Stadium. This is him trying to hit off a team.

and he's terrible and the Yankees are laughing at him. Yeah. I mean, look. All right. If we take Adam to a golf driving, you're wrong about what? I'm going to go ahead and say

there's at least a couple where he hits the T and not the ball. You're wrong. You know what? I'm going to have to get, like, I'm going to have to I am the producers right now. If I send you guys,

I am me, don't get back in my ear because it'll go out over the air. If I send you guys video of me golfing. Can you put it in the show so we can show Chris just how good my golf stroke is? I'm going to take that as a yes, and maybe we'll get some video of that. It'll be better than Janus playing baseball. So, hey, how many?

He's hitting a ball off the tea. Oh, my gosh, he's terrible. And does a celebration because he finally made contact with the ball on the tea. Look, look, the nation of Greece does not have a particularly store. Bored baseball tradition. I know they have a team. Oh, but, you know, he doesn't have a lot of role models. Like, you know, maybe Eric Caros. Okay.

Who are some Greek baseball players? In honor of team named Tuesday, P's and Caros. That's the one I thought pull back from the olden days. Very nice. Also, look how small that bat looks. I know this is a video and a lot of people are listening. The bat looks like a toothpick in his hands. He's so gigantic. Well, let's get into, let's get into, oh, I found my golf video. All right, excellent.

Let's get into baseball here. How many, how many guys hit multiple home runs last night? Chris, I think I already told Scott, so. No, still count. I hate Chris today. Yes, I have a section. Sounds like you're in the bad mood. Now I am.

Seven players hit multiple dongs last night, six of them double-donged and one of them triple-donged. Scott, since I'm mad at Chris, I'll let you go first. Of all the multi-dong guys, any fantasy takeaways from last night's home run happy evening? Well, I'm encouraged that Edwin Incarnacion hit too because I don't know if you've looked at the numbers. You've probably experienced the numbers, Adam. He has been terrible since joining the Yankees and not just like, you know, low babbip, eventually the hits are going to come around. He's been striking out a ton. I don't know what's happened there. Probably nothing, but it was encouraging to see him hit two home runs. Also, Tyler O'Neill,

he's been playing pretty regularly for the Cardinals here. We know he has a ton of power potential, even though this year and the miners hasn't gone as well as last year. So to see him do something positive with the starts he's getting, I think, is something to keep an eye on there with Tyler O'Neill. Yeah, Ancaronassione has 12 hits with the Yankees and six of them are home runs. So that's fun. He's batting 158 and 19 games with the Yankees, six walks, 24 strikeouts.

He had been terrible. Other double-dongers or triple-dongers, George Springer, who had, you know, look, since coming off the IL, he's played 15 games. He's batting 302 with nine walks at 13 strikeouts, but he only had one home run before yesterday. So now three home runs and 15 games.

Cody Bellinger, Double-Dong, he now has 33 home runs and a 3-40 batting average. He's pretty good. Chris, Oscar Mercado, Brandon Crawford, and then the triple-donger, Travis Darno,

and maybe you're good at looking this stuff up. Maybe you can look up the distance of Travis Darno's home runs, because these were very much, especially the last one, very much Yankee Stadium, short right-field porch home runs. Oh, okay. Well, they were.

Now the home runs at Yankee Stadium don't count. What? The Yankees give them. Oh, here we go. We got video. I'm just saying the last one in particular, Well, that one I saw didn't look so bad. No, the first one, that's the one I missed, actually.

That was the first the bat of the game. Yeah, he had a 355 foot homerun. That's pretty low. None of them went more than 386 feet, so he didn't exactly, you know, crush any of them. His numbers looked very bad before yesterday. Now they looked very good. But I suppose when you have a three-homer game and his few of bets as he has, that's what happens. crap home run. Yeah, he doesn't play often enough. He splits time with Mike Zanino.

But Chris, how about Brandon Crawford or Oscar Mercado? You want to talk about them? Mercado was one for 25. Yeah, I think Mercado is the only one really worth talking about here. Brandon Crawford, it was cores. He's been pretty miserable this season. And to the point about Darno, he had a 719 OPS since getting traded to the raise. before the last five games. He's actually been on fire in his last five appearances, which is seven games for the race.

So it's actually, he's been playing pretty regularly in that stretch, but he has 11 hits in his last five games. So a lot of that has come late. Osprecato, I think, is pretty good. I really like what we've seen so far. Even the one for 25 stretch, you know, he's still hitting 283 overall,

has speed, has a little bit more pop. he's one of those guys that, you know, since getting to play with this new Major League baseball, baseball, in AAA and now in the majors, he's started to discover some pop. And it's a situation where maybe if they switch the ball next off season and change the pill inside of it so that it has more drag and doesn't carry as well, he may lose whatever value he has. But for right now, I think he's a pretty good hitter. You know who's a pill? Chris is a pill today. Allison pill. So, all right, those are your double and triple doggers from Monday's games.

Eleven games yesterday. And we will talk about Clayton Kershaw and his excellent season. All right, fine. So, Chris, before Chris can scan the notes to cheat on this question, since Kershaw debuted on April 15th, where do you think he ranks among starting pitchers in points and roto? What do you think, guys? Kirshaw.

I'm going to say... He's averaging like six and two-thirds innings per start, right? He's fourth innings since his first start of the season. Yeah, he has more innings on the season than Walker Bueller does now, which is... I'm going to say fourth. I'm going to say four. Yeah, I'm going to say he's been top seven. Seventh in points, 14th in Roto.

Not 100% sure. I'm too aggressive. I don't know why he's 14th in Roto. Like, he's 8 and 2 with a 3-E-R-A. not like, okay, less than a strikeout per inning, but not like a terrible, 98 strikeouts and 105 innings and a 105 whip. There are just, there are a handful of guys who have, you know, like a 230, 250 ERA. So, Kershaw's seventh and points, 14th and Roto since he made his debut.

And my favorite stat is he has not allowed more than four runs in any start. And maybe my favorite stat is actually the fourth most innings among starters since April 15th. Without throwing more than 101 pitches in any start. Amazing. I think last season, once he came back from the IL, I think in the second half of the season, he was sixth in baseball and innings pitched. He's still extremely good.

And efficient. Very efficient. No, it doesn't walk anyone. And a lot of ground balls. All right, great. Kirshall, so it appears I have been way wrong on Clayton Kirshaw. And I apologize for that. You're not alone in that.

There were a lot of people who were kind of out on Clayton Kershaw coming into this season. Well, it's not that I didn't like him. It's just that I, you know, like I keep saying, there's going to be another I L stint. Maybe I'll be right about that. I hope I'm not. I thought the home runs would really get him. There was good reason to be scared of him. His skills are diminished, but it's just he had so many to begin with that they're

diminished to something that's still really good. Right. What actually saved me on Kershaw was the fact he got hurt this spring because suddenly he went from a guy people were targeting in round four to like round seven. And I was willing to pay for potential A's in round seven, even if it meant a couple weeks without him. Sure, give me that all day. Yeah, and this has been pretty close to a best case scenario. But I think this is, we'll see it with, you know, in four or five years, we'll probably

seeing this with Mike Trout when he starts to get just a little bit worse and people will probably overreact. that's kind of what happens when you're an all-time great and then you move to just being pretty good and you have these moments where you are vulnerable and Clayton Kirchall has had stretches where he hasn't looked nearly as good he's not nearly as good as he used to be.

He has the best ERA plus in Major League history. He's not that guy anymore. But he's still, he was very good last season. He had a 273 ERA. And, you know, it's a reminder that just because a great player has slipped, you don't want to overstate the amount that they've fallen on. All right.

Well, today's sponsor is Harry's Razors. I told Chris he needs to get a Harry's razor. He said, I already have a Harry's razor. So if you want one, go to harries.com slash FBT. Harries.com slash FBT get a special promotion there. Let's talk a lot about the Colorado Rockies and the two games they played yesterday. Our email of the day at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, it comes from Morgan.

And Morgan says, I can't believe it, but I'm worried about Nolan Aeronado. He says he's got a bad toe that he's playing through, and I think it's affecting him. He's the number 200 player in fantasy on Yahoo over the last month. Thanks for using Yahoo, dude. And had a 250 OBP over the last two weeks. What is your worryometer on Nolan Aeronado? Who, by the way, since hurting his toe, has played 19 games, and he's batting 231 with three home runs in those 19 games.

Guys, worryometer on Nolan Aronado, it's Tuesday, but we'll turiometer it up. I guess maybe you throw the toe and the thing in there, which I didn't know about. And that might bump it up to like a two for me. People were worried about Aronado in April as well, and he quickly remedied things. 19 games isn't much of a sample, really. Yeah, I mean, you can go a little further back Like the last 35 games or 34 games I think he has a 740 OPS which is pretty bad

That was pre-toe, right? Pre-toe right, yeah, it started a little bit before that Yeah, so the toe injury, go ahead Chris, sorry What I would say is he has had So he has a 690 OPS over the last 19 games He has had Looks like two different different stretches in the last two years with a worse mark and a couple in 2016, one in

two in 2015 for 19 game stretches. So it's not, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Now, if it is because of the tone, it's not just random, that would be a reason to be concerned. But, you know, I also, to what end should you be worried about Nolan Aronado? You're not trading him right now. So I think Mike Trout, I don't remember, three years ago, whatever, he had a, like a, he had an injury, he had a terrible August. You didn't know when he was going to get better. And maybe it was a terrible July. I don't remember. It was one year, one month, in one year he just was August.

It was August. And he was great. He was due to his calendar, turned to September. He was great. So you never know when these things would change. What's interesting for Aronado, not necessarily worth analyzing with fantasy, but just interesting. Last year, he had a 9-81 OPS. He was having his best season.

And then he got hurt. That was 115 games, 9-81 OPS. He got hurt. It had a 41 game stretch after that with an 809 OPS, which is good, but not great. And then this year... Pretty bad for a guy playing half the game before. Yeah. But this year, 980 OPS before the toe injury.

So almost the same exact thing. So actually, like, I see it basically, if there... you think the injuries really affected him the last two years. He more or less was having his best season two years in a row of like a 980 OPS, and then injuries derailed him a little bit last year, and so far this year, but let's just hope he can turn it around. Your stat of the day, Rocky's pitchers have allowed 148 runs over their last 15 home games.

That's 9.9 runs per game they've allowed. They've scored 7.6 runs per game in that same span. The fact that Corysfield is this crazy, does that mean that we should try to get as many Rockies as we can? Overpay for Rockies just for their home games. I mean, the good news is only about half of those runs came from Hermann Marquette. That was all. I just wanted to make a joke.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, I have Ryan McMahon. Rockies are expensive, Adam. Well, Ryan McMahon. I keep recommending Ian Desmond. I keep recommending Ian Desmond and the top sleeper hitters because they keep having home games. That's where I think the value comes in with the Rockies. I mean, Charlie Blackman was a value this year.

And he's been unbelievably good at home and unbelievably terrible on the road. He's having an absolutely wild season. He's got like a 600 OPS on the road and like a 1400 OPS at home. But yeah, I think you can find value with. some of those lower end guys, especially if, you know, the ball, it's going to be really interesting to try to figure out what the baseball is going to be like next year. But like buying low on Daniel Murphy would have been a really good idea. He's hitting 294 now.

He's been absolutely on fire for about, I think like a month and a half, almost two months now. Guess how many home runs he has at Corse Field? He's only got like two. I think seven of them have been on the road. Yeah. Yeah Good job Yeah

Like Even Coorsfield No I I Was that in the notes No I'm saying Good job

That was good I'm impressed I knew that one off the top of my dome I just wanted you to acknowledge But Coorsfield has not been enough to save Like Ryan McMahon Or

Ryan Altopia He's been Ryan McMahon is exactly Who I was talking about He homered yesterday Like in a low end sort of sense You know

You don't have to roster him in a 10-team league or like a 12-team points league, but I do think Ryan McMahon's worth keeping for his course field games. If you're in a daily lineup league or if you're looking for like a sleeper hitter on a week when they play a lot of games at home, yeah. Yeah, that's it.

I have a McMahon in a daily lineup league, exactly. And then I'm going to re-ask a question from yesterday that both, I think Heath and Scott were both wrong on, obviously. Domingo Armand or Armand Arquez. Marquez, I was saying Domingo, Erman. Scott and Heath said Armand Marquez, and after this dud, 11 runs in two and two thirds, who would you take now rest of season?

I don't want to overreact to Marquez. I mean, obviously, it's terrible start. And he's been on a rough stretch here. A third of the way through the season, he had a nice 348 ERA, and seven of eight starts. since then have been not good. Three of them have been terrible.

I think he's only had two good starts at home this year. So that's part of it. But, I mean, it goes beyond that. Seven of eight bad starts. It's a lot of road starts, too. But I do think, just like we were doing for Blake Snell in maybe a less dramatic way, we point to the fact that Herman Marquez has a 361 X-FIP on the year, which takes into account his home environment

versus a 512 ERA and he's been a better picture than the results have shown. He has a lower exfifth than Hermann Marquez does. But beyond that... Than Domingo Ramon, you're saying? Yes, the Domingo Hermon. The other Hermon, yes.

But he hasn't been a better picture than Herman. It's pretty close to a toss-up for me right now, honestly. I wouldn't object to anybody taking Hermon instead. I think Marquez, I think Hermann, you're going to be more comfortable starting him every time out, but he may not have as many times out to be started. And I don't think his upside from start to start is quite as high. But if you want to take him instead of Marquez, I get it. I just don't, you know, spite drop is a term people seem to use with pride,

what it's like the most reckless thing you could possibly do when you're playing fantasy baseball. And you absolutely shouldn't go there with Marquez. I do want to point out, though, that you should expect Marquez and any Rockies pitch or two underperform their peripherals. That is the Rockies over the last decade collectively have underperformed their X-Fit by about six-tenths of a run. So obviously the 512 to 361 gap might be overstating, though, although it might not be given the current run environment.

He just, Marquez hasn't been nearly as good as he was last year. Like just on a pure skills like He hasn't been as good of a badmits there He's been he's been kind of Jose Brrios like In terms of strikeout and walkery But you cannot start him at home starts Like you right now You have Armand Marquez

You are not starting him in home starts It just You can't I'm just uh yeah Armine Marquez I keep getting him And in a two start week Where it's split home and away

I'd still start him I would yeah I mean to be fair I would have done that I would have done that this week I would have done Because his second start is at the Yankees.

Are you going to be confident starting Armand Marquez at the Yankees? Ooh, maybe they're facing each other this week. I'd like to say it would be, but probably not. Human nature, I'd probably sit him. There's a very good chance I'd come to regret it. We'll just have to see.

All right, we're going to take a break here on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, watch me golf. That's up after this break on FBT. So Chris Dowers doesn't think that old Adam Azer can golf. And Scott White hates when Adam Azer talks about himself. And now I'm using the third person.

So we are derailing the show. All right, let's see the video. Here we go. Video crew, let's admire my golf swing. Oh, look at that. Look at that form. He's settling in. He's teeing it up.

Whammy! I did forget you're from Coral Springs. You've probably golfed a lot. No, not that much. That was the first golf swing. Oh, slow motion. The best part is when you turn around and shrug afterward. Oh, I was looking, so that was...

Like Michael Jordan in game three? Yeah, that's awesome. That was at Top Golf, and Top Golf, you have to turn around and look at the monitor to see how far you drove it. I think that one was like, somewhere like 600 yards, something like that. I don't remember off the top of my head. I think so. All right, let's do some news and notes. Mike Trout has a small calf strain.

He's not on the IL right now. He says he's dated. day. I feel like they're lying to us, but we'll see. Wilson Contreras is on the IL with a foot injury. The Cubs acquired Martine Maldonado from Kansas City. They don't expect Contreras to miss that much time, but they acquired Martine Maldonado, so maybe they're lying to us. We'll see. A lot of liars out there. Zach Wheeler is on the IL with shoulder fatigue. I am going to stop calling him a by-low right now. He's been a by-lo the entire season, but Zach Wheeler's on the I.

Maybe he is a by-low. Maybe he misses like two starts. Maybe a by lower. Mm-hmm. Yeah, maybe. Yeah, I mean, there's supposed to be MRI results today, so it's hard to analyze this too much as of now. But I think there's some optimism.

It won't be a long time. If he is healthy, I would still consider him a by-low. Right. Max Fried left with a blister. He was pitching very well. He even got the win. He had a really good start, and I totally benched him. in a two-start week at Milwaukee and at somebody,

but I did not think it was going to go well. So good job, Max, Freed. Nate Lowe, how about this, guys? Nate Lowe for the raise is going to work out at third base, and Astros' outfield prospect, Kyle Tucker, has been playing some first base. Scott, when are we going to see Kyle Tucker? Any day, any day.

I've got to said that for two months now. But this obviously helps, because they've been playing a lot of Tyler White at first base. Uly Guriel's been playing a lot of third with Carlos Correye out. Of course, Alex Bregman playing shortstop. But Coray is going to be back soon, and that probably

changes the whole dynamic again, since Yorton Alvarez seems to be a fixture at DH. He's played a lot of first base in the minors Alvarez has, so that would seem like the easier play than moving Tucker there, but, you know, more options means more

ways to force himself into the mix. And I would I would consider Tucker the top minor league or to stash right now. He is 45% owned. Nate Avaldi is going to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow or Thursday. The Red Sox DF8 Eduardo Nunez. We already got bad news this week on Luis Severino, who might come back as a reliever.

And you might not get much of anything from him. Tyler Glass now, he's being shut down for two weeks. So Glass now may not be able to... Yeah, you can drop Glass now, right? Yeah. Unless it's a keeper league, yeah. Or, I mean, obviously, if you have a free. Yeah.

I.L. spot, I'd rather take the chance on getting a couple starts from him at the end than just stashing some scrub. I think I'd rather. I think I'd rather stash Nate Avaldi right now. Yes. Yes. I actually have IL stash rankings coming out today. They're out.

They are out. Yes, Avaldi is ahead of glass now. You're out. But yeah, you can look at that. Gregory Polanco left the rehab game with shoulder tightness. And all of this should just be your own. reminder that injured guys sometimes get re-injured, especially pitchers. So keep that of mind on draft day next year.

Ken Giles could be available today. Chris Taylor's on the IL with a broken forearm. I'll tell you who that might benefit in just a bit. Evan Longoria's on the IL with a foot injury. Mitch Morland could be back this weekend. Josh James started, just like Chris Towers wanted. Josh James started, but he only threw one inning and then Framber Valdez was bad. Matt Carpenter left after fouling a ball off his foot.

Jose Martinez, who looked like he was a regular. he has sat two straight games, and Theo Epstein expects Ben Zobris to return at some point this season. Some trade rumors, I'm not necessarily going to go over all this. We could drive ourselves crazy with this, but Robbie Ray is drawing some trade interest.

I don't think home road splits really indicate there'd be a big difference. I mean, this year has been better at home. Last year was better on the road. Robbie Ray. The Yankees won him at him. How would that make you feel? I know you're not a Robbie Ray fan.

I think he would make a lot of sense. on the Yankees, because that's one of the teams where you can say, just go out and give me five innings, turn it over to the bullpen. But no, I'm not a Robbie Ray fan for fantasy. Milwaukee is interested in Will Smith, according to the athletic. And that would be interesting. If the Brewers acquired Will Smith, who is the Brewers closer? I think it's Will Smith.

Yeah, I think so. I think it'd be like Jefferson's the second half last season. They enjoyed having hate it. so much in that versatile multi-inning role that they've kind of had to take him out of, not completely, but they've preserved him for the ninth more. It would stink for haters' value. I mean, there are other scenarios where Will Smith could go somewhere and it could crush Will Smith's value, but, you know, that's not the situation you hope for, Milwaukee or,

I mean, frankly, with the way Carlos Martinez has come on, St. Louis, you don't really hope that. I haven't heard much about the Braves being interested, but they're a contender that could certainly use the closer. So he's going to go somewhere, and it could drastically change his value depending on where he goes, and it could change other pitchers value, too. Michael Givens is drawing some trade interests as well. I can't imagine he's going to be a closer for a contender. All right, let's do some hay real quick. Also coming up on today's show, are we done here with guys like Zach Eflin and Griffin Canning and Lorenzo Kane? And Jeff Samarja is on a nice little run here.

We'll talk about him. Alex Dickerson is on a nice little run. We'll talk about him. The Giants, as Chris mentioned, are red hot, one of the hottest teams of baseball. All right, hey, real quick, Dodgers Outfield, Alex Verdugo or A.J. Pollock? I'm going to take Verdugo, but not with a lot of confidence, not with a lot of conviction. I am thankful that he continues to get playing time even with Pollock back, because I know there was some concerned about that.

Yeah, and that's what I was alluding to earlier. I think the Chris Taylor injury only helps Verdugo, because the one game that he sat since Pollock returned, Verdugo started three or four games. Chris Taylor was in left field, so it's just one body less to compete with. Pollock sat yesterday, not a huge surprise. Give him a little bit of a breather.

Hey, real quick, Joe Musgrove or Miles Michaelis. I'm going to say, Michaelis there? Is he winking at us? Hey Scott, what's up, man? Yeah, pick me.

He's winking, right? Yeah. I'll go with Michaelis, but it's kind of my default. I'm tired of analyzing Joe Musgrove because I feel like I can't get a good read on him ever. But Michaelis has one for sure skill that Musgrove doesn't have

and that's putting the ball on the ground. So Musgrove, I guess, is a better strikeout pitcher, but not a great strikeout pitcher. I'll take Michaelis. Are they both must-own guys? They're both owned in 88 or 80. They're owned in about the same amount of leagues, and they were started in about the same amount of leagues, Michaelis and Musgrove. Slightly less than must-own, but I don't think in any of my leagues I'd let them go unowned. I could envision a like 10-team league with 21-man rosters, probably not owning either of them.

my gosh. So Miles Michaelis's nickname is the lizard king. And Andrew, one of our producers, has just sent me a video of Miles Michaelis eating a lizard. Eating a lizard. Can we put this on the air or what? Because this is insane. So it's not like a Jim Morrison reference? No. I thought it was Jim Morrison. I don't want to put this.

This is cruel, actually. I don't want to put this on the show. Just YouTube Miles Michaels eats a live lizard if you're so inclined. But no, why would you do that, dude? The lizards have feelings. That's actually not cool. All right, Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts. Hey, real quick, Freddy Freeman or Mookie Betts.

That's really gross. It's bizarre. Not the question. Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts. Yeah. Why? I mean, they're both in my projected first round for next year. So it's nitpicking.

I mean, Mookie Betts is having, he's having a decidedly bad season for himself, and he's the number seven hitter in, is that points or Rota? Points. Got to be points. Roto, I would guess he's outside the top 20. He is. 22nd. And that with pretty bad luck.

Like, he's probably better than 277 hitter. He probably should have more than 13 home runs. in this home run environment. So, yeah, I would still go with moogie bats, but look, Freddie Freeman's awesome. Okay. This year I'd take Freeman.

Next year I probably draft bets ahead of him. Yassio Puege or Noah Cindergarde. Yeah, you heard me. Hey, real quick. Pueig or Cindergard? Pueg's going to be a better hitter. I think Noah Cinderg will have a better pitching stat.

So it really depends on what your team needs. I really want to point out how amazing Yassio Pueg has been lately. His last 24 games, he has a 12-47 OPS. He also has 22 home runs and 13 steals this year, which is pretty damn good. And he's a top 10 outfielder in Roto, but he's only 24th in points, unlike Mookiee Betts. His plate discipline has been dreadful, better lately. But, like, Cindergarde's been disappointing.

Cindergarde is not an elite strikeout pitcher anymore. Yeah. So Pueger Cindergarde, hey, real quick. I think both will be better. I think both will be better moving forward than they have been so far. I think I would take Puege, but Pitching is so hard to come by that that might be the differentiator is just positional scarcity.

I'm not trying to trade for a hitter in any of my leagues. I'm pretty much trying to trade for a pitcher in all of my leagues. And I think that sums it up right there. Okay. And that is hey real quick. We got a lot of emails. I want to read a few of them here. and then we will talk about

Eflin, Porcelo, Griffin Canning, Paul DeYoung, Lorenzo Cain, etc. Here's a quick round of emails. This one's from Connor. Is Nick Senzel worth rostering at a 10-te-to-head points redraft league? What do you think? Nick Senzel, 10-team head-to-head points league?

No, probably not that format. He can be rostered, but he's not a must-own. Okay. From Francisco Eduardo Juarez Niebla. when you try to compare stats like line drive percentage, home run to fly ball percentage, etc., do you just compare it to the league average? Or how do you know when something is good or bad?

Yeah, you compare it to league average and then that player's established tracker. Right, right. In terms of is this player overperforming or underperforming in this way, it's more about comparing the player against himself. but just to know if he's good, if he's considered a good version of this. Obviously, you compare it across the league.

Now, when it comes to like home run to flat ball ratio, that's one that I don't think you really compare to either. You can compare it to the players previously established skill set, but it fluctuates a lot year over year. I don't think it makes much sense to compare it to the league. I think what you do is you compare it to a hard hit percentage because there is a pretty close correlation between those two things. So if someone has a well above average home run to fly ball ratio and a well below average hard hit percentage, that's one where you would think his home run to fly ball ratio is probably going to come down unless there is some other extenuating circumstance like he's completely blanking on the superstar shortstop third baseman from the Houston Astros.

Alex Breggman, who hits a lot of 368 foot home runs to left field at home. It's not, I'm not knocking him. Like, he plays in the park and he gets a lot of cheap home runs that way. It's funny that you forgot his name. Oh, yeah, just totally blanked on it. That's awesome. Didn't have my dikegoat this morning. I will mention in the context of comparing it to what players done previously,

a lot of players on both the pitching and hitting end, have a career high home run to fly ball rate this year. It's gone up like two percentage points league-wide this season, I think. I remember doing the notes for, you know, all these players preseason, and I kept writing the same thing in all of my notes. Career high, hard contact rate last year. And I have a feeling...

That's another one. I have a feeling when I do the notes next preseason, I'm going to be writing the same exact thing. Okay, next email. Next email, sorry, let's get... Sorry, Chris. From Tom. You shouldn't have hung up on me this story.

That's fine. It's fine. Subject line, Chris Davis with a K. K.R. Davis. Seriously, what on earth do I do with this guy? I'm the moron who kept Chris Davis over Glaiber Torres. I can't seem to pawn. him off in trades. Is Chris Davis dropable or do I have to write it with, write it out with him? Head to head points league that uses OPP, not batting average. This is from Tom again, and he wants

to know what to do with Chris Davis, who in his last 39 games is batting 28 with four home runs. Yikes. What do you do with Chris Davis? I'm struggling to think of how a points league uses either batting average or OPP, but I don't take his word for it. He's really hard to trade in a head-to-head format because he's confined to utility. If anybody ended up with a second first basement or a second third basement or a second, whatever, it's really good. A second shortstop is plausible. There's just no need for Chris Davis.

So I can relate to that. I think he's just overdue for a hot streak. Yeah, you just got to hold him. Yeah. He's going to hit five home runs in a week at some point. Everything's going to look normal. Now, I think that Chris Davis, and I was watching Fantasy Baseball today, our video show on HQ on Sunday. And I want to say it was Chris Welsh, who you've heard on the podcast, he was on the video show as well, said that he's playing with a finger injury.

I know he had the hip injury, which ended up being an oblique, if I recall, when he went on the I.L. But, oh, he was hit in the hand, Chris Davis, and he's been struggling since. But he was struggling before that, too. but just generally speaking the seriously the most consistent player in fantasy the most predictable player in fantasy you've got to believe he's going to get back to

being who he was I think we're all at the same page there but just keep in mind that he did get hit by pitch on the hand. I'm from Alexander I added AJ Pollock and I dropped Trey Mancini was that a good move I'm fine with it I mean Chris is the high guy on Pollock

I rank Trey Mancini higher but it's not a huge huge difference if you if you just like Pollock. I probably wouldn't do it. From Brian. I have Chris Paddock, and I know he might not be there

for my fantasy playoffs. I was thinking of trading Paddock for Bumgarner. Would you give up Paddock and either maybe Sabathia, Shinsu, Chu, or A.J. Pollock to acquire Madison Bumgarner.

I absolutely wouldn't give up Paddock plus something for Bumgarner, I don't think. I would if it were Sabathia. I would if it were Pollackia. I know Chris won it. It just depends. Like is he your fifth outfielder in a three outfielder league?

That's right. Right. Yeah. Exactly. You may have just picked up AJ Pollock. Is this a points league or rhodo? Did he say? No.

I don't know. Like, well, it's not, it's not, it's not, it's not, it's not season long roto because he said playoffs. Yeah, because I'd rather have Paddock in a straight roto format than Baumgarner by a large march. I mean, if we're counting on. Bumgarner getting traded. His biggest issue this year is he just can't get any wins. And that would obviously change that equation. Yeah, but he's got 390

playing in the best pitchers park in baseball. Yeah, but... He's been better. Like an orange 390 ERA, and it's been better, and his velocities back to where it was before shoulder surgery. So, like, I think there are beyond just the win-loss record. I'm kind of thinking they were better days ahead for Bum Garner.

All right, guys. More from yesterday. Players that you might want to drop. Some team name Tuesday. Some bullpen notes. Emilio Pagan pitching in the seventh inning and giving up a game-tying home run. That's all coming up right after this quick break on fantasy baseball today.

Are we done here? Are we ready to drop these guys? Let's start with Zach Eflin. Well, let's start with the three pitchers. Zach Eflin. who gave up seven runs against the Dodgers in his last four starts, he has allowed 22 earn runs and 20 innings. On 35 hits, Rick Porcelo.

Not a bad start yesterday, but only two strikeouts in six innings. 5.37 E.R.A. more than slightly inflated by that terrible start in London, where he gave up six runs in less than an inning. And Griffin Canning. Griffin-Pick Canning back-to-back duds on my bench yesterday, thank goodness. But three runs in an inning in a third against Houston, and he walked six, which is very unusual for him. He was, you know, according to the article,

probably Rusty, hadn't pitched since July 4th. But Zach Eflin, Rick Porcelo, and Griffin Canning, guys, are we done here? I'm not done with Canning, though I am disappointed in him. I expected better. Zach Eflin, I feel like this was something you could see coming from a mile away. Yeah. Get him off the screen. ERA from his last four starts.

gone from 283 to 416. The X-FIP's even higher. And I think Trevor Williams is a good example of this. You know, assuming normal situations and not like a Colorado situation or something else really weird going on. A player, when there's that much of a gap between E.R and A and X-FIP, he always regresses. It may not happen in the same year, but eventually it happens. It's happened for Williams.

It's happened for Eulis-Sha. It happens. And it's happening to Eflin now. So I'm done with him. Porcelo? Yeah, I mean, he's been bad this year in a number of ways. I think as like a points league streamer, just because he pitches for the Red Sox,

he can, you know, go six innings with a fair amount of consistency. He's still useful, but he's not, he's going to hurt your ratios. He's, you know, strikeout rates down, walk rates up, ground ball rate, just everything is worse. Scott, you sounded like you were Griffin Canning's father. You were like, I'm disappointed in him. I'm not mad. I expect, I'm not done with him yet, but I expected more.

But I have so much affinity. I know, you always have. Yeah, you love him. You love him. You're just disappointed. I'm disappointed. You just expect better. Capable of so much more, Griffin.

I've seen it. His last two starts have been against Texas and Houston. His next two starts are going to be at Seattle and home against Baltimore. So I, like you, Scott, am not giving up on Griffin Canning just yet. How about these two hitters that are 92 and 91% owned respectively? Paul DeYoung, it is now 43 games with a 551 OPS, a 183 batting average for Paul DeYoung. And Lorenzo Kane all season long, he's been bad. He's batting 250 with five home runs and 11 steals this year.

He does have three multi-hit games in his last seven, but only two extra base hits, both doubles in that stretch. So Paul DeYoung and Lorenzo Kane. Chris, are we done here? Kane has battled multiple injuries this season, I believe. So that's my concern. I just can't say that he's going to be healthy moving forward either. So, yeah, I think he's dropable, especially in a points league.

DeYoung, I think probably also he got off to such a good start, but it was such a big outlier. And yes, the peripherals largely did bad. back it up. He improved a strikeout rate, but it's another reminder that a parent skill level can fluctuate just as much production can. So yeah, I think we're okay dropping Paul DeYoung. Wow. Okay. Time to talk about some other dudes in a segment called other dudes to talk about. I'm going to say a name and you guys just tell me generally how you're feeling about them. I'm excited to talk about one of them, by the way. Jeff Samarjo, not the one I'm so excited about.

But last three starts, 166 ERA. The two months before that were just brutal. Jeff Samarja. Scott, a quick thought. He had nine strikeouts in this one, but eight over 15 innings in the previous two. So I'm not thinking anything's really changed here. I mean, is there anything more surprising than Jeff Samarja dominating at Corse Field? That was crazy.

Chris, Jake Junis, his last two starts, 14 innings, 16 strikeouts, three run runs at Washington and home against the White Side. Two starts, next two starts are both going to be against Cleveland, who he's been terrible against. Jake Junice. I don't see much reason to be optimistic there. If you're in a deeper league, I think he would be worth streaming against Cleveland, even though he hasn't been good against them. I just, I don't think that kind of position stuff or matchup stuff matters all that much.

I don't see a reason to believe that the Indians would have his number. So if you wanted to stream him there, fine. I don't see a lot to get excited about. You know whose number I have, Chris's number, and I called, and he was mean this morning. Scott, Alex Dickerson sits against lefties. He's a 7% on outfielder for the Giants. In the last 21 days, he's the number 32 outfielder in points, number 23 in Roto. And he's got really good numbers this year, Alex Dickerson.

311 batting average, 378 OBP, 6.08 slugging in limited action. 7% own. What do you think? think a platoon outfielder for the Giants probably doesn't need to be much more on than 7%. Maybe he could be like 17%. Because he is a good line drive hitter and there is some pop there. But I just don't think he's in a position to make a big fantasy impact. Derek Rodriguez had a good start at Colorado yesterday, but we're going to have to see a lot more.

We don't even know if he's going to stick in the rotation for the Giants. And then our last guy, he fell, is the one I asked. am excited to talk about is Jamer Candelario. Went down to the minors, came back up 15 games ago, and since then he's batting 321 with five home runs. I picked him up in a Roto League, and he had like a couple bad games, and then I dropped him, and now he's two big games in a row, so that's the way it goes for me this year. It's so much of that.

It's unbelievable. But Jamer Candelario, 10% owned. Scott, are you a little more enthusiastic about Candelario than you were about Alex Dickerson? Yeah, I mean, there's more opportunity to play for Candelario. Keeping the strikeouts down, which she has done since returning, it looks like, is going to be a key for him. But I don't think we're talking about standard mixed league fair here. This is, you know, if you have a hole in your third base one week and you're desperate to fill it,

Candelario is now an option to do that. He's probably more in like the Mikel Franco ring. of third basement than like I can't even think of a good example Brian Anderson I kind of feel like that's the same range as Mike L. Franco. Oh, Brian Anderson's better.

I was trying to damn Jammer-Kennelario with faint praise. Yeah. All right, we're moving on. Not Yuleiguriel, how's that? Not Yulikeryl. Six-man rotation. We can eliminate one of them.

It was Clayton Kirschel. We already talked about him. So let's go to the now five-man rotation. Blake Snell, James Paxton, and Luis Castillo. Let's start with those three. And then we'll talk about Kyle Hendricks and Lucas. No, no, let's talk about all five of them.

Changing my mind. Blake Snell, five innings, four strikeouts, one run at the Yankees. Still has not thrown more than 105 pitches in a start. Only four starts this season with more than 96 pitches thrown for Blake Snell. James Paxton, he's been pretty good in his last six starts, except for one terrible start. The other five been pretty solid. Luis Castillo, I do not share Chris's pessimism on Luis Castillo, or Heath's for that matter.

Kyle Hendrix. He was Kyle Hendricks yesterday. Very good. And Lucas G. Alito, a little disappointed. Six innings, three runs, five strikeouts at Kansas City. Let's talk Snell first and then the other four. But guys, where are we on Blake Snell right now? Mostly in a good place.

The innings are the frustration right now. He was going six with regularity the first couple months of the season. But lately, and a lot of the starts were bad, obviously. But even the good starts, it's been pretty rare. And you're not going to win any games if you don't go six innings. It was something that I brought up before the season. Last year, he didn't really pitch deep into games. And even when he did pitch into games, it was still with very low pitch counts.

He was just so good and so efficient and let's be honest, so lucky that it didn't really show up in his innings count as much as it has right now. He'll be better than this moving forward and he'll go deeper than five innings per start moving forward because he's not going to have a 455 ERA. But I don't think there's any reason to believe

he's going to be like an innings either. No, you did bring that up. After he came back off the IL last year with an arm issue, they were pretty conservative with his innings. And they're doing the same exact thing with Charlie Morton. The difference is Charlie Morton is going deep into games on low pitches like Clayton Kershaw. Snell's just not having quite as good of a year. He does, though, have 126 strikeouts and 95 innings, which is good.

I think again, I mean, we'll throw the by-low tag on him, right? If anybody's down on him right now, he's been pretty bad against the Yankees. So just five innings, one run at the Yankees. Like, that was not a bad start. Yeah, it's fine. And his last three starts have been against the Yankees twice and the Rangers. So, all right, James Paxton or Luis Castillo. Well, how would you rank Paxton, Castillo, Hendrix, and Gioledo, rest of season, Scott?

I would rank them, I think Gio Lato won, then Castillo, then Castillo, then Hendricks. That sounds okay. Okay, yeah. The toughest call is at the top between Golito and Castillo for me, because I'm not exactly sure what to make of Gialito. fine in terms of walks, but he's had some issues with those off and on, which has been, obviously, Castillo's problem, too. Okay. It has.

Well, I like Castillo. I don't really care so much about the walks. And I'll tell you why, Chris, it's more important these days to limit home runs, and he obviously does that. I can live with the walks. But, like, last year, he had a 432 FIP and a 430 ERA. now he's got a 241 ERA and a 370 FIP, and his Sierra is actually the worst it's ever been so far this season,

418. So, like, as always, if I'm going to be wrong, I'm going to be wrong in the same direction as always, which is believing in the peripherals being more indicative of the talent level than just the service level ERA. And so I think he's got some regression coming. going to sustain an 83% strand rate. He's not going to sustain the 236 BABB.

He can be good in those areas. But, no, I still think he's more likely to have an ERA in the high threes than the high two. Well, I'm going to make the same case for Castillo that I made for David Dahl earlier this year when, you know, he had a ridiculous Babbup. And, you know, it, it seemed like he couldn't possibly be a good player for long. And that's just I feel like he's actually better than this. Like I feel like Castillo can be at least a decent control pitcher.

Yeah. And it has been better lately. And in Dahl's case, it was I think he can hit more home runs than he hit. I think he can strike out less and that's going to make up for the bad bit progression. And that's basically come to pass. And so I'm hopeful that the same can happen for Castillo. But even beyond that, even if he is a 370 ERA the rest of the way, I got to think that's still a top 20 pitcher.

Castillo's control hasn't been better lately, though. I don't want to pick too many nits, but he did have one start with one walk, but over the last, oh, since the start of June. Like the five and six walks starts have been less frequent. He's in his last seven starts, he has four, two, six, five, three, one, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, three. that's on the better end of him. I guess that's what I was looking at.

And one point about his strand rate. Like, you're saying he can't sustain an 83% strand rate, but when you look at the leaders in strand rate, it's the best pitchers in baseball, the guys with the nastiest stuff, the ones were the hardest to hit. He had a 71% strain rate last year. So he was unlucky last year.

That's not... He was unlucky. Okay, fine. I don't know. Like, if you want to believe that he has that special ability, that's fine. I just don't. I don't really believe anyone outside of the really, really best pitchers have that.

And Luis Castillo has not proven himself to be one of the really, really best pitchers in baseball. He kind of, he maybe has. I don't think that we can say definitively. He's had two really good half seasons. I don't think that we can say definitively that he has. But when he came up, he was awesome. And he was pretty damn good for, I don't know, the last two months or so of last year. And he's got a 241 area this year.

So I would say in terms of the early portion of his career. He looks like he's one of the better pitchers in baseball. I mean, he's exceptional in two of the three fit barriers, home run prevention and strikeouts. Well, he has been sometimes. I think that. Like last, well, but like Scott, you were saying, well, I think he has the ability to have better control. Last season he did, and it also came at the expense of his ground ball rate and his home run rate. But didn't he always have better control?

Like, this is a real outlier for him for Luis Cassie. And the minors, he had great control. Yeah. He was, that was one of the ways he stood out the most. This is, this is weird his control right now. So, although I suppose it wasn't great in his rookie year, 32 walks in 89 and a third. His strikeouts are kind of weird relative to his minor league numbers, too. We're about out of time.

I do apologize. I just wanted to play this clip because Chris wanted me to play it. Abelio Pagan pitched in the seventh inning yesterday. Thank you, a night at the Roxbury, and he gave up a home run, and you can ignore Oliver Drake getting away. out save. Maybe Brandon Workman getting a save was a little bit more important. Brandon Workin' 31% own probably has been the best reliever for the Red Sox.

And it's team name Tuesday. We will end with cease and destroy. That's kind of crappy like cease and destroy. Pain in Diaz. Pain in Diaz. You have to kind of, you know, say that one fast. Darth Bader. Yeah, we get Darth Hader a lot.

Hey, it's Enrico Polanco. That one's not bad. And this one, Chris, you're going to like, a little death cab reference. I'll furrow you into the dark. It's good. It's good. Thank you very much for listening to our show today. For Chris Towers and Scott White, I'm Adam Azer.

Talk to you tomorrow. I'm fantasy baseball. Peace and Carol.