Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/17: Predicting Second Half All-Stars (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 17, 2018

Another year, another short debate about the effects of the Home Run Derby on second half production. Is there a Derby Curse? We've also got a number of SPs with good matchups this weekend that you can add (8:00). Do we trust Lance Lynn against KC or Dereck Rodriguez against OAK? ... Grade The Trade (15:00) and Team Name Tuesday (21:50)! Some Dynasty League trades to grade on today's show ... Predicting second-half All-Stars at C (24:22), 1B (26:28), 2B (28:58), 3B (33:18), SS (36:18), OF (39:00), SP (43:30) and RP (47:50). Some names are obvious but others may surprise you. How much do we believe in Willson Contreras, Yoan Moncada and Marcell Ozuna? Also the Fantasy Regulators are back (49:54)! ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I care about statistical scarcity more than positional scarcity. Is I field fun? Yes. Podcast is going off the rails already. They're pop-ups. They're not infield fly balls. These guys told you look at Fip, not ERA. So wait for Glover's sale, but pass on Robbie.

Real quick, Scott's bummed about the humidor. And pick your milk for breakfast cereal, Mount Rushmore. They'll be there for... This Harper is cursed. He won the home run derby. That's terrible news. Welcome everybody to fantasy baseball today. It's Tuesday.

It is July 17th. And I am Adam Azar. I am with two people who do not believe in the home run derby jinks. Nonbelievers, hello. It doesn't exist. Like, there's nothing to believe in. Adam, do you believe in ghosts? I don't believe in ghosts, though.

What about, like, little garden gnomes that steal your stuff? Uh, undecided on that. um, ferries. I thought you were going to say Greg Byrd. Greg Byrd, the above average baseball player. I believe in him as it above average baseball player. I don't believe in any of those things either because they don't exist, just like I don't believe in the home run derby curse because it does not exist.

You can ask Chris, because he saw my face when I opened up the notes and saw what you want to start to show with. I had the exact same reaction as I was driving in and I got the notification on my phone. No, I'm not going to, I'm not going to really talk about it. I'll be talking about this. In 2015 and 2016, there were 16 home run derby participants. 14 of 16 had a lower OPS in the second half. Last year...

No, because you know what? You know what's funny, Heath? I actually went back... Why do they choose the guys for the homerun derby? Is it guys that just hit a bunch of home runs? I actually, I went back and I listened to last year's podcast, because, you know, you were saying basically the same exact thing. I didn't feel like doing all the research again,

so I just listened to what was said on last year's podcast. Right. And you were extremely dismissive. But then I pointed out that it wasn't just that, 2016 that some of these guys had bad second halves or worse second halfs that they fell off a cliff like mark trumbo will myers adam duval and carlos gonzalez i look i don't i last year last year smash the smash the theory because actually almost everybody was really good in the second half and here's the thing mcels to know we're

not they were playing through injury last year most of those guys were good players Like the year 2016 was that the year Like Mark Trumbo Adam Duval Carlos Like Those guys aren't that good

And this is what happens Like Ian Desmond is going to have a worse second half Than his first half Because he has a 40% Home Run to fly ball ratio 37.5% Has even been that good though

Right right But just Play along He's going to have a worse second half He's going to hit a lot Fewer home runs in the second half than the first half And everyone should know this.

Nobody should be surprised. I don't know how Ian Desmond's spending his All-Star break, presumably not participating in a home run derby that's not sanctioned by Major League Baseball. I think we can assume that. So when he has a bad second half, what are we going to blame it on? But, you know, there's the thing. Look, I'm not, this is how I feel about the home run derby. I'm never going to downgrade one of my fantasy players because of it,

but I hope that none of my fantasy players participate in it. Because every now and then, you do hear somebody talk about how it messed up their swing. That's all. So that's like anecdotal evidence that it can affect a player. That's all. But I'm not going to... As we say, nothing actionable. Like, Javi Baez, probably will have a home run derby curse

because his OPS is 100 points higher than it was last year. I just hope he doesn't have a dreadful second half. He might. He never walks and he strikes out and he swings at everything, so he might. I'm surprised he didn't swing and miss it anything yesterday. I think. Also, Bryce Harper's dad was cheating yesterday, and we should. Call it what it was.

No. No. Yes. No. Rules are rules, Heath. You cannot throw the ball until the last one lands. He was throwing the balls before he even hit them. That's obviously not true. Before you even hit them.

He just took two pitches before Bryce Harper swam. Every single pitcher threw at one, at least one illegal pitch. No, we're not enforcing the rule for anyone. Davey Harper. I think Brian Wilson Harper. The Hornemur... Probably helped Bryce Harper last night. I think he has a big second half because of it.

Well, he hit a lot of stuff the episode field, so... Defenses are going to... The scouting report. Did not watch one second of the Hornun Derby. It was really fun. It seemed fun. I watched the highlights of Harper's... The new format is incredible.

It really changed the... Except the 440 bonus is so stupid. It's awful. Yeah. Like, we don't even know how far the ball is actually going, but we're going to say, if you hit a ball that our computer says... Went 440, not 439. Hit two of those and we'll give you an extra 30 seconds.

Alex Bregman was robbed. Max Muncie hit a bunch of dogs, but he didn't hit any of them long so they don't count as much? That's stupid. Greglin hit 15 but didn't get the 30 second bonus to loss by one. So new format was last year. I started last year? Yes.

Yeah, it is fun. It's cool. It's a great event. I just, I figured let's take the night off. Instead, I watched dirty dancing for the first time ever. Well, you were researching home run derby curse stuff. No, not really. I also watched the first episode of Picky Blinders, which was really cool.

And I'm kind of going to get into that show. All right. So what else is coming up on today's show? I got some weekend streamers for you. Even if you're playing in like a long two, you know, a long week, you might just want to take a look at these guys. They've got good matchups this weekend. If you're in a daily league, this could help. I've got, we've got, we've got second half all stars.

We're not going to do first half all stars. We're going to predict the second half all stars at each position which players are going to be the best or, you know, among of the best. We've got your emails at Fantasy Football today. Oh, nope. Wow. And Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I'm all confused right now. Fantasy Baseball at Cbsi.com. That's where we've got your emails. We've got a special guest joining us later. In fact, a couple of special guests. Warren G and Nate Dogger joining us. The Fantasy regulators are coming on the show. Who's excited? Yeah. And we have to figure out our Grade the Trade song. It is pretty embarrassing.

we are grading your trades. Yeah. This works, right? Yeah, I guess. Heath doesn't know this song. Like, you're just trying to kill every bit of energy that anyone might have for this show. Come on, I'm bringing energy today. I'm a good mood.

It's All-Star Break Week. I love All-Star Break Week. All right, so Vitamin C is going to... This is insulting. Vitamin C, the singer, is only the second response on Wikipedia when you search for vitamin C. Insulting. Show some respect. Okay, well, I would think that would make sense.

So let's look at some news and notes real quick. Manny Machado, very close to being traded. Could happen before play resumes on Thursday night. The Yankees are giving Louis Severino some rest. They're pushing him to Monday. He's not starting this weekend. And Luke Weaver's in the minors. We didn't talk about that one.

That's just kind of like a Beaver thing, right? He's just getting some pitching in and coming back. He's dancing? Yeah. And throwing eggs at houses? Playing a little guitar. Drag racing in Miami. Bad tattoos.

All things that Bieber has done. Now, Luke Weaver's coming back, right? They didn't demote him. I would assume that this is just a 10-day thing. Cool. So some interesting weekend streamers. Well, I put a bunch of them in the notes, and I don't think it makes sense to read all of them.

That would be a long segment. So if you guys want to pick some of your favorites, I think Kyle Gibson at Kansas City seems like a pretty damn obvious one. He's 69% own. Dominger-Amon versus the Mets. Also, that's a good one that you put in here. Already, Nativaldi probably needs to be owned more than 76%. Already, same with Carlos Rodon.

I don't love the Carlos Rodon matchup. The Mariners can still put some runs on the board, but... Nativaldi is the Marlins. Yes. And Rodon is the Mariners. Nativevaldi, Chris, what do you make of his dreadful start over the weekend? Two and two-thirds, eight earn runs. He is Native Aldi.

Yeah, I think that's something that will happen. He is throwing a little differently. I think he's throwing a cutter a lot more this season, and that's made a difference for him so far. But, you know, he's probably not a completely transformed pitcher. Yeah, Gibson's easily my favorite in this list. Rodon would be my second favorite. As a streamer or as an ad generally.

To start this week. Okay, even, okay. Hermann would be third, because the Mets are terrible, but they're mostly really, really terrible against lefties. They haven't been as bad against right-handed pitchers. They also might get Cespitis back to D.H. This weekend. And Armand, Armand's really, like, really good or really bad.

So I'm a little nervous about it. And same thing for Duffy. I like Duffy a lot against the twins. They've been bad against Lefties, and we keep thinking they should be better, but they haven't. And then, like, in the Deep League one, I think Derek Rodriguez at Oakland should be good. What do you think about Armand-Marquez at Arizona?

It's a road start, Marquez. I think it's fine. On the road, Armand Marquez is useful. Okay, so that's Friday. Marcus Stroman against Baltimore, which will likely be without Manny Machado on Saturday. That's a juicy one. He's 75% owned.

I think you could get back to Lance Lynn at Kansas City. No. No. Last season, Lance Lynn had a 482 FIP, but he put together a 343 ERA, and we just decided, all right, well, peripherals don't matter for Lantz. No, we did not decide that.

You guys have been a guy who really... He's never really been a guy who, like, outperforms his peripherals by a huge margin, and his peripherals are a lot worse now. Here's what I'll say for Lance Land on Saturday. You can do that. Like, to bring back the knuckleball thing, we don't know with the random... Chris's beautiful, insightful random number generator take on knuckleball pitchers. He's not a knuckleball pitcher, but he doesn't strike anybody out,

and the Royals don't strike him. So they don't hit home runs either. It's all going to come down to Bavip on Saturday, and it might go well, and it might not. I'm not betting on it. And the problem, he might walk seven guys, too. But, I mean, it's just the Royals. That's the only, I'm not making a case for Lance Lynn. But last time out against the Royals, he gave up, I think, three runs in the first inning.

And those, I think, were the only earn runs he gave up. He got the win, and he's had two, you know, good enough fantasy usable starts against the Royals. Fine. I will not try to convince you it. I mean, it's like a 5ERA and a 1.6 whip last week. Yeah, it wasn't great, but it ended up, he got the win, so he ended up giving you like 15 fantasy points. And that's the thing. Like, I think he's got a pretty good chance to get a good chance.

I'd rather have Nick Kingham against Cincinnati. Okay. Okay. See, that's the thing, like Nick Kingham at Cincinnati. Cincinnati, do we have to start thinking about them as a sit matchup? We can start thinking about them as not one to target necessarily. I just think that King's a lot better. I'd rather start Trevor Cahill against the Giants. I would rather start Trevor Cahill as well. I can't trust Jake Junis, right?

We need to see something from him. Ryan Yarbrough. You can't trust him, but I think I'd still rather start it than Lance Lynn. You can't trust Lance Lynn. I trust the Royals to be bad. That's fair. There's at least one pitcher on Sunday that I like more. Ryan Yarbrough against Miami, 23% own if you want someone deeper.

Good help. That may be determined by Friday's game. True, true. If he gets to start, then I'd be more likely. And Daniel Ponce de Leon, there's a double header, I believe, Cardinals and Cubs. I don't think we want to start someone at the Cubs, but Ponce de Leon's got some, I think, good numbers in the minors for the cards. But yeah, whatever. And Sunday.

All right, who do you like on Sunday? Povetta. Oh, Palletta is a must start. Should be way more owned than 74%. I know he's been bad for a while, and he's throwing his fastball too much, and he needs to stop that. But San Diego's not very good. They've been better with Will Myers back, but for the most part, it's still not a good lineup. If Nick Povetta does not come through on Sunday against San Diego, we're going to have some problems.

But Povetta and Gibson are probably our two favorites, and maybe Stroman against Baltimore. And they're three of the more highly owned guys. They're about 70 to 75 percent owned, so it makes sense. But we've given you some deeper league options. Maybe Matt Harvey against Pittsburgh, although Pittsburgh's been – they had a very good weekend. They played a five-game set against the Brewers, scored six or seven runs, and four. of them. I don't want to trust Odarezi or Lucchasey.

Yeah, I'd rather start Oteroese than Lynn. Okay, same matchup. I think I'd rather start Lucchase than Lynn. Boy, you guys hate Lance Lynn. Okay. So the deeper ones, I've got an eye on Armand Marquez, Derek Rodriguez, he's mentioned, Trevor Cahill, he've mentioned,

maybe Ryan Yarbrough. Those could be some weekend streamers for you. And if you're not doing anything this weekend, hey, why not go to a game? Why not save some money with our promo code fantasy? That'll get you $20 off, your Seekkeek purchase. So here's what you do. Put the Seatgeek app on your phone or go to Seekek.com, but it's really easy. Just put it right on your phone.

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We shall see. We're going to get to the second half All-Stars in just a moment. But we've gotten so many grade-the-trade-trade-trade requests, and we haven't gotten enough. So let's grade some trades. from Adam. He's in a dynasty league. This song is so bad. Give Chris Bryant. Get Alex Reyes and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I don't see any reason to do this. I would not do this. There might be some pricing reason to do it, but in terms of just the talent, like maybe Vlad Guerrero will be as good as Chris Bryant in a few years. but like, like, Vlad Guerrera is an amazing prospect, but let's not forget that Ronald Acuna was the best prospect since Chris Bryant, if not Mike Trout.

And he's been okay. D. Yeah, D. Jason and Kansas City, 5-by-5, AL-only roto league. Give up Verlander, get Porcelo and Tanaka. This would be a really bad trade, I think, in a mixed league. But in an AL-only league, give up Verlander for Porcelo and Tanaka.

Yeah, because you have to. thing it's probably Verlander and some dude with a 5 ERA and no strikeouts. The only way I would do this still is if I was really in trouble in strikeouts or wins. Because this is going to hurt your ERA. It's going to hurt your whip.

I'm going to give it a C minus. It's a C plus. Interesting. Now, Tanako give you a good whip. It won't be as good as Verlander. What is Porcelo's whip? Probably pretty good. It's probably fine, but it's going not. neither of them are going to be as good as Verlander.

Yeah. This is from Gary. He says, hey, Amy, Bernadette, and Penny. Oh. Gratio. Which, who would we be? No idea. Really?

Big Big Theory. Oh. Yeah. Gratia. Who would we, which girls would we be? I think I'd be Amy. Chris would be Bernadette and Heath would be Penny. Wow.

Is Bernadette the pretty one? Well, Penny's like. He said I was the pretty way. No, Penny's the hot one. Bernardette's pretty. Isn't one of them Winnie Cooper from Wonder Years

isn't she on that show? No, you're thinking of my Ambialic from Blossom and that's Amy. Yeah. Yeah, okay, great. 16 team head-to-head points Dynasty League. 16-Team Points League Dynasty.

Give Bumgarner and Gene Segura get Trevor Bauer. Bumgarner and Seguerah for Bauer. Danik-McCuller was on the Big Bang Theory. So she did not have a big role, did she? I don't see any reason to do the Bumgarner and Sagar for Trevor Bauer trade. Even in the Dynasty League, I think Trevor Bauer might be better than Madison Bumarner moving forward.

He's been arguably the best pitcher in the American League this year, but Gene Sagar is really good, too. D minus. Yeah. See, this is why Heath is the best at understanding how to do each segment. Oh, we should just not talk about it. Everyone understands how. I'm just the only one that follows the rules. Oh, he's getting there.

I would like the grade first, then the analysis. Well, that's not what you're going to get. When you get a paperback from your teacher, do you want the, like, here's why you got this grade, and then you have to wait in suspense and then finally see your grade on page three? Adam, here's the thing. When you're interested in the pursuit of knowledge and not the pursuit of GPA, plus, like, based on my, based on my scuba,

Based on my scholastic history, it was a C plus. Okay, okay. 12 team head-to-head points league. Give up Dallas Keikl, get A.J. Pollock, this is from Mike, by the way. Give up Keikel for AJ. A. B-plus. I think that, again, this is the best format for Keikle, and I expect he's going to be a top 30 pitcher in this format rest of season.

But there's a lot more upside with Pollock than there is with Keikl. Has Pollock been really? bad since coming off the deal. It hasn't been very long. Let's take a look. It's been, yeah, it's been July 2nd. It's been one week. He had, no, it's been two.

It's Brin. Were you doing the It's Been One Week thing? That is what I was doing. Okay. Well, you have to do the, Yitzbrun. Not the way you did it. Ah, come on, baseball reference. Give me his damn.

Does he like anything you do? He is hitting 250 with a 730 OPS Since coming off the DL in 12 games, 10 starts. And he hasn't attempted to steal yet. He's barely been on base. Yeah. Okay. So that last one.

What was the grade? Kiko for Pollock was an A and a B plus or something? Yep. All right, good trade. From Mike, give up Brantley and Sean Newcomb. Get Ross Stripling in a 12-team Categories League. Brantley and Nukem for Ross Stripling. F.

Wow. To give some context, this is a 12-team Categories league with three outfielders in one utility spot, and he already owns Giancarlo Stan, Juan Soto, Will Myers, Brandon Bell, and Reese Hoskins. So he's been putting Michael Brantley on the bench lately. Well, he should have been starting Michael Brantley over. At least one of those guys, probably two. I don't. Which one?

Probably Belts. Like maybe Belt. Wilmires? No, Wilmires has been amazing lately since coming off the D.L. he's been incredible. Yes. Michael Brantley's still been awesome. Michael Brantley's been good, but...

Michael Brantley had a good weekend against the Yankees. Before that, he was kind of just like giving you some batting average. Yeah, that's the thing is that Michael Brantley, especially in a category league, is he doesn't steal many bases anymore. He doesn't have for power. He's, like, he'll drive in some runs, but he's not a standout. He'll score, so he's kind of like a two category. Like, he's probably, if he plays the rest of the season,

he's probably going to be at 90 of both runs in order. I don't like it. Well, what do you dislike about the trade? I would rather have Michael Brantley than Ross Tripling. I don't think it's great value, but I think Ross Tripling's a huge upgrade on Sean Newcomb. And if you're not, if it was giving up Will Myers instead of Michael Brantley, maybe I would like it a little more. But I get the logic behind it within the team content. Right, right.

That's a good point. On its face, it's probably a loss. because we would draft Brantley before we'd draft stripling. And then, you know, forget about how we feel. Obviously, Chris and Heath feel differently about Sean Newcomb. But sometimes you have to overpay from your strength to address your weakness. And that could help your trade. So we get that.

All right. Let's look at some second half all-stars. First, it's team name Tuesday. Three mics your trout. Three mics your trout. Oh, I get it. Yeah, I get it. Derek Verlander is center for ants

I get it Yeah that's good Confirmation bias Sure We think we've had that one before It's excellent Here's one I don't understand The Eloy and the Morlocks

Um I mean Something warlocks I don't know what Yeah I don't know what that means That's good eaten Adam Eaton Yeah

Cool hand weaver Three pitchers Cool hand weaver What is that a reference to? I don't know. I know Kuhnard Luke. Yeah. Maybe he meant like Luke Weaver.

Okay. No, that's fine. Yeah. Snellson months? Sure. Yeah, I like that one. Snellson months. Betts you can't hit just one.

Sure. Do you guys remember? Bet you can't eat just one. That was a great out campaign. Alby's there for you. We know that one. Whirling Darvishes? Uh-huh.

That's good. Schwaber, Swarber Disco. Apparently a Pulp Fiction reference. Okay. I don't know that reference. I don't really know that movie that well. I think I need to watch that movie again. I don't...

I'm not sure you needed to watch it the first time. I don't get the right way. Do you not like Pulp Fiction? Like, was that a Pulp Fiction is Bad take? Yes. He's like, I'm of the opinion that Pulp Fiction maybe a little overrated. This is still a great movie.

That's a ridiculous take. He went through like a 20-year drought where he didn't make a good movie. Until when? When did it end? What are you saying he made, like one good movie? No. He's only been making movies for like 25 years. And he hasn't made that many movies.

I think Inglorious Bastards is incredible. I love both Killbills. Yeah, I'm not... Killbills are terrible. It's been a while since he made... I don't know if he's made a bad movie. He's been making movies like 30 years. 35 maybe. No, not since 83. I think you forgot it's 2018.

Okay. Second half all starts. True romance. Very good movie. I never saw that way. Nobody comments. on the fact that I watched dirty dancing for the first time last night. Never seen it. Because I'm not here for heteronormative shaming.

You watch the movies that you watch at them. I liked it. It was good. It's just weird when the big climax of a movie is a dance scene. It's not that weird. West Side Story has dancing. Never seen that. All right.

Second half, All-Stars. So we decided, instead of looking at who's been great in the first half, let's take a look at who we think is going to be great in the second half. So who is going to be your second half catcher, your second half all-star at catcher? And it doesn't mean we think he's going to be number one necessarily, but I think y'all get the point. Second half all-star at catcher is who? There's an obvious answer to this one. Gary Sanchez?

And it's Gary Sanchez. I wrote about five hitters to target for the second half, and Gary Sanchez was one of them. He just, the skill set, there were some red flags. The infield fly ball rate was way high, and that was worrisome. but it still wasn't enough to justify the 2-11 Babbitt or whatever he had. He's the best catcher at Fannis,

the best hitter at catcher, and there's no reason to think he won't be. And he should be back at the start of the all-sterbury. Heath, anything else? I think Gary Sanchez is a fine option. Now that I've won the Gary Sanchez is not the number one catcher in points argument, I don't have any problem with him.

Yeah, I don't know if he's catching up to Evan Gattis, but he's going to be... You were almost as wrong. Buster Posey. I suppose he's really had a disappointing year. He's battling a hip issue. Wilson Contreras was a guy that I figured you guys were going to take Sanchez, which is fine. So just to talk about more players.

Wilson Contreras, his hard contact rate is not as good. But his career high, 20.3% soft contact rate, usually around 17%. But a 9.1 home run to fly ball rate is so low for Wilson Contreras. I just feel like there could be a real nice second half for him. Yeah, I think that's a good call. Okay, and then I was digging even deeper. What do you guys think about Robinson Chorinos? I did notice that he is hitting the ball very hard and hitting a lot of fly balls.

Yeah, he was terrible at the start of the year and kind of lost some playing time for a while, but everything he's done since then, I don't know if he could be a fantasy All-Star because I think he's still a low-in number one catcher, but he could be our second catcher on the All-Star team. Okay. So we love two catcher leagues. So we like Sanchez. he's the best. Wilson Contreras could have a nice second half,

and Robinson Torino's honorable mention. First base, who we got? What position do we want to play Max Muncie? Yeah, wherever you'd like. I'll say him at first base just because, like, and I want to say first off, players go through hot streaks where everything looks sustainable,

and then it turns out that they just aren't that good so they can't keep that up. Justin Smoke last year in the first half is a good example. The peripherals all supported what he was doing. With Max Muncie's past track record, I wouldn't understand if someone thought that. But holy crap, does everything he's doing look like one of the best hitters in baseball? Just crushing the ball, great plate discipline. I think he may be one of the best first baseman or second baseman or third baseman

or outfielders in fantasy baseball in the second half. So Max Muncie I put Carlos Santana on my second half All-Stars list. He has his highest walk rate Uh, career low K-Rate is

2010, career low K-rate. He has a 206 Babbitt. Maybe Santana is getting a little caught up in the fly ball revolution because he's hitting too many fly balls, perhaps, and the line drive rate is way down. But I still think the track record is there. This is a second half player.

Would you rather have Carlos Santana or Max Muncie? Muncie, for sure. Muncie. Yeah, I think that's... He walks as much as Carlos Santana does. Would you rather have Max Muncie or Jesus Aguilar? I would go with Muncie. Yeah, Muncie.

Muncie or Abraeu? That's where I probably stick with Abraeu, assuming I'm only looking for a first base. All right. I think I might rather have Muncie on my team. I mean, the funny thing about first base is that we're sort of... We're all looking for, like, kind of by lows here. Or maybe a buy high, like Max Muncie. There's so much...

Anthony Rizzo's got to have a good second half. Joey Votto has to be bad. Joe Votto has a good second half. Reese Hoskins is going to be better. There's a lot of options of first base because first base stinks. Encarnacion is really interesting to me because the walk to strikeout rate has gotten a lot better lately. And he, I think he's hit two home runs recently, but that's basically all he's done. His batting average is so low.

but yeah, thoughts on Inc. We talked about him a little bit last week. Thoughts on Encarnacion? I think he'll have a fine second half. I think the same. Second base. I'll take Max Muncie. How about you guys?

How about this one? And we've gone through some ups and downs with this fella this season, but Yoha Makata showing signs of late has hit the ball really well over the last couple of games, but most impressively, over his last 20 games, his strike-out rate has consistently consistently declined. He had a 20-game stretch, ending on June 28th, where he had struck out 40.5% of the time. And ever since then, it's been going down. It's 29% over the last 20 games. That's still not good.

But with his skill set, he's a high Babbitt player. He steals bases. He hits for power. He's the kind of player that if he's striking out 29% of the time, I think he's a starting caliber fantasy option, especially in categories-based league. So that's my second half pick. Yohan Moncada, Heath? You know, I'm going to go with D. Gordon. I haven't really been able to figure out why D. Gordon has been so much worse than he was, and probably because there's a very thin line between average D. Gordon and really good D. Gordon, and some of it's just fortune.

But I expect he's going to score a lot more runs than the second half. I expect he's going to hit over 300 in the second half, and he's probably still going to get close to 45 stolen bases. Okay. I want to know what you guys think about Catelle Marte. So Heath goes with Dee Gordon. Chris goes with Yoan Moncada. Cotel Marte, he's won for his last 16, but in that stretch, he has five walks, five strikeouts. And I was going to make this case, like, hey, maybe struggling a bit, but the plate discipline's been so good.

Then I look back and I see plate discipline wasn't really a huge problem for Marte, especially last year. He just wasn't a good hitter. But look, he had a 9-89 OPS in the 34 games before that. They faced a pretty good amount of lefties, and that's where Marte has really excelled. But do you buy Casal Marti? He's been for a little over a month. He's been a starter at second base, and he's 50% owned. So this is, he's an interesting case because he was one of the guys who before the season talked about,

I'm going to hit the ball in the air this year. Nope. He is not hitting the ball in the air this year. He has had stretches where he has hit the ball in the air this year, and it has coincided with his most productive stretches as a hitter. Maybe he gets his swing right and he hits 35% of his balls, our fly ball is moving forward and 20% line drive rate and he can be a productive above average hitter. But that seems to be the key.

He does have raw power. I don't think that's what we think of with Cadell Marte, but he has shown that. I just don't think he can put it in the games yet. Okay. So at first, at catcher, Gary Sanchez, Wilson, Contreras, a little bit lower on the list, Robinson Charinos. At first base, Max Muncie, and like everyone else, Carlos Santana, hope. Hopefully. Do you guys feel confident in Carlos Santana? In him being Carlos Santana, yeah.

And at second base, Yuan Moncada, D. Gordon. Gordon obviously better than Moncada, but guys who could have much better second half than what we saw in the first half. Let's get the third base before we do that. Always trying to save you money on this podcast. So if you're thinking about saving money this summer, why not start by paying less interest on your credit card balances? And you can do that at lightstream.com. And I've been to the website, took a look at it. It's really very easy to use.

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Who's the All-Star? I know who you want us to say. Who? Josh John Olson. Oh, I didn't even think about him. That'd be a fun one. Justin Turner's my pick. It's possible that the wrist injury just lingers all year.

It's also possible that it just gets better. And I think we've seen signs of that. He had a 209 ISO in June, his hard hit rate so far in July. has been up. So I think Justin Turner has much better days had of him. And we've seen when he was healthy last season, he was a poor man's JD Martinez. He was one of the best hitters in baseball. I think, you know, Yuli Gueriel took a little while for the power to come back,

but I feel like that's come back a bit because that's the guy. We compared Turner and Gueriel. They both suffered hand injuries. You know, the really weird one is Eugenia Suarez, who came back, like, after three weeks from a broken hand and just kept absolutely crushing the ball and is really like messing with my mind on this issue. But for the most part, you still expect this to impact power. And maybe, like I said,

maybe it'll just linger for Justin Turner all season. But maybe the All-Star break gets him right. The upside is worth finding out. So the only issue I have with Turner is that he was dealing with an injury just before the break. He's expected back after. but it's like a side injury or something. I can't remember. It was something muscular.

So just keep that in mind. But, yeah, I was hoping somebody would bring him up. Heath, anyone for you at third base? Chris Bryant. Yeah, that's the obvious one. Get a power surge in the second half. And there's nothing not to like about Matt Carpenter. I mean, maybe he, I don't know.

Maybe he won't Homer as much, but my God, 29.3% lie drive rate. Yeah. He's just, he's been amazing. He hits the ball extremely well. I was going to say him for a couple of different positions, but then I thought he's been too good. Yeah.

In the keeping with the theme of Max Muncie, Ehayenio Suarez deserves some love, and I don't think he's gotten the appropriate amount. He's been incredible. Can I rewind to second base real quick? Maybe. Maybe. Maybe.

Is this a scary stat for you? Scooter Jeanette has a 371 badpeth. He also has a ridiculous hard hit rate and a great line drive rate, but 371 Babbat for Gennett. He's not going to sustain his very high Babbat. But this feels it's a little like Daniel Murphy a couple years ago where we were skeptical last year, and then he kept doing it the following year.

And he has made some changes, and he's benefited from the juiced ball. But for the most part, I think it's just he's good now. Whether he's this good, probably not. Well, and he has a 334 career Babbitt, which is really high for that many played appearances. Okay, so Scooter Genentee. Maybe the batting average comes down a little bit, but still he's probably going to be a 300 hitter around there.

He had $2.95 last year. That's Jeanette. Let's go to shortstop. Who do we got? This one's a lot harder unless you go with the obvious one. Which is what. Trade Turner. Yeah.

Yep. Like it's really hard to find. I guess D.D. Gregorius, you can make a case for it just because he hasn't done anything since like April 12th. Beyond that, it's really, Carlos Correa, I guess, once he gets healthy. Maybe the Mets will just decide. to play Ahmed Rosario every day and he will have a breakthrough. Well, speaking of the Mets,

is Drubal Cabrera's got really good batted ball data. And he has not fallen off as I have expected. I think there's been, you know, some slumps in there, but he's mostly been really good and he's probably going to get traded.

Do you think of Cabrera in a by high sense? Because I'm afraid to put my eggs in the Drubal Cabrera basket, but he has been really good. Everything about the Mets terrifies me. Well, he won't be a Mets much luck. And there's just that he could get traded into a part-time role.

Oh, boy, I hope not. Is there anything about Trey Turner that gives you pause, or are you convinced he'll be back? He is not running nearly as much as he did the previous two years. And this was the concern coming into the season, the batting in front of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy and the top of that lineup, he might not run as much, and he hasn't.

He's on pace for about 40 steals, maybe a little bit less, and he had 46 and 98 games last year. He's stealing about half as often as he did. So in that sense, in the, like, can he challenge for the number one overall spot in Roto sense? Yeah, I have reasons to be skeptical of Trey Turner. And that may be, like, he's been caught more often this year. Coming into this year, he'd been caught 16 times in, like, what, 95, 100 attempts? It's in negligible.

He's still only run, in 96 games, he's run 28 times. Last year he had run 54 times in 98 games. Right. I think a lot of the not running has increased over, like, it's been a long time since he's attempted to stole base, right? Or he's had one in his most recent month. We have, we have, we have, we have, we have, we have, we have Tray Turner in the midst of a stolen base drought. You know, his stolen base, like he wasn't going to steal 60, but it looked like he was going to steal at least 40. And he's probably going to get close to that.

He's been, he's been quiet. Oh, he's been caught in his last four chips. Yeah, yeah, that's the weird thing. That's not great. That's the weird thing. That's got to be fluky. That's got to be fluky. I would think so, unless there's some kind of nagging injury that we don't know about.

He's just ice cold lately, too. Trey Turner has not had a good July. Let's see, he's batting 250 with a 359 slugging percentage and no steals in three attempts in July. All righty, so he's still six bases in June. So, you know, did you get 18 steals from him rest of season? That'd be nice. Outfield.

Bryce Harper, for sure. Yeah, I mean the four names I put were Harper, Blackman, Stanton, who's already, I mean, quietly been like amazing for at least the month. And Springer. Harper, Blackman, Stanton, and Springer. I need Scott to get back on the podcast. How can you not put John Carlos Stanton in your top 24 for next year? Absolutely bonkers. I don't know, is it? Yes.

Was he in our top 24 before last year? Well, that's the thing. Before last year was the first year he had dropped out. The year before that, he was a top six pick. Yeah, I know. Last year does look currently. It may not after the second half, but it currently looks slightly more outlierish. But even if he doesn't go back, he was the number one hitter last year.

So even if he doesn't go back to last year, if he goes back to the pre-2016 version of himself, and 2016 he was bad. I'm remembering that right, right? I think so, yeah. And that was coming off the wrist injury. So I think that's the expert. Before that, he was consistently a first round pick. if not for the injuries.

And the injuries have not been a concern the last two seasons because they were mostly fluky. I just, I think he deserves to be in the top 24. I don't think it's outlandish to not have him in the top 24 for next year. I am going to yell at Scott White. I can't wait. I'll give you a points league all-star. Oh, you weren't done. Go ahead.

No, no, no, I was. I was actually queuing you up. Any other outfielders. And we talk about him too much, so I won't talk about him too much, but Jake Bowers. In a points league. He was a top 25 outfielder since he was called up, and that was without everything going his way. Jake Bowers, okay?

I'll bring up one that makes me a little uncomfortable because I saw some speculation recently that he could be sent down to the miners to work on some stuff. Oh, Michael Kinfoil. No, but that's a good one too, because I believe in the talent for both of these guys, but Joey Gallo. It's not worked out for me so far,

but there are still, like he's an improved hitter since last season, even if the results don't show it. His Babbup is somehow lower, even though he's hitting the ball the opposite way and making contact more. So I think he's going to have, you know, if he has a 270 Babbat in the second half, he's going to be a very good fantasy hitter.

And we'll throw Marcellus in out there. He's not going to have 1-17, you know, ISO the rest of the season. Now that, I'm glad you, because Ozuna was the guy I was going for. It's easy to figure out these high-end guys, Harper, Blackman, Stanton, Springer. Ozuna, I did just a Google search to see if I can find anything on him, and I see this story in the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

It's a Q&A with one of their writers, Derek Gould. And the headline is, what did cards know about Ozuna's bum shoulder? And the question was, please explain the process the Cardinals' medical team had in assessing Marcelo Zuna's shoulder during the trade with the Marlins. I find it incredible that they traded four prospects for a player with a bum shoulder who literally can't throw the ball more than 40 feet, and now it's obviously affecting his swing. And then Derek Gould, the writer, gave his answer. The answer wasn't all that insightful, I guess, just that they were comfortable with Marcel Ozuna.

They were comfortable, what did he say? Something a little bit interesting. There was a physical that the Cardinals wanted to make the deal, and they had to orchestrate that at the same time as the other deal, blah, blah, blah. They were comfortable with results. Comfortable to the point of limiting Ozuna's throwing program during the spring in an attempt to aid the shoulder and comfortable that his production at the plate last year with the same soreness was not reduced.

So that really stood out to me. Maybe he's got a shoulder issue that we haven't been fully aware of. Maybe, but he has hit, he has an above average barrel rate of 6.6%. His average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls is 47th out of 230 qualified hitters. his batted ball profile mostly looks the same from last year so I just think it's we saw the upside last year

we saw the best case scenario I think we're seeing the worst case scenario this year and he's still on pace for about 90 RBI I think he's going to have a very nice second half I think he'll probably hit 15 homers moving forward with a 270 to 280 average all right that's Marcel Ozuna pitchers who do you got

oh we've got so many good names here Oh, all right. Go for it. Let's start it off with a big one. Joe Musgrove. I really thought you were going to say John Gray. John Gray is James Paxton. He has been kind of crappy since the start of June,

and I wonder if the people who own James Paxton are a little worried about that, especially because he's on the DL. You are going to trade for an extremely injury-prone player who is currently on the DL. Yeah. All right. James-Paxon. I will stick in that same range, and we'll just move down together, I guess. I'll go with Carlos Carrasco,

who has a 3-43-fip, a 337x and a 335 Sierra. He's really good still. But his velocities now. Allegedly. You know what? I watched his last start, because I watch all of his starts. Fastball looked a lot better. Oh, good. It did. And maybe he was just throwing his 4-seamer more than his 2-semer, like I said,

I don't know. But a lot more 94s than 92's. Also, I love how you mock me when there was actually a report and a concern coming out of spring training about Carlos Carrasco's velocity that we completely ignored. Also, ZERAs over four. So maybe, actually, I've been 100% right about Carlos Carasco this entire time, and you mock me as if I've been wrong when, in fact, I've been right.

Except his velocity hasn't been down. Except his fastball sucks, and his velocity has been down. No, hasn't. John Gray. Out of your mind. He was back from the miners and made a great start. I think he's going to be very good moving forward. Coorsfield puts a cap on how.

good he can be, but I think you're looking at a mid-to-high-high-3s ERA with a ton of strikeouts. That's a useful pitcher and is available. Everything Chris said about John Gray, except he doesn't pitch at Cores, Nick Povetta, it's going to get things started on the right foot after the All-Star break and be a top-30 starting pitcher. Jameson-Tayone has already started his turnaround, and eight starts since throwing his slider as a primary part of his arsenal against the St. Louis Cardinals. He has a 329 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate with seven starts with 10 or more swinging strikes.

What about? That's a starting rotation of five. I've got... And Joe Musker. Seven. Yeah, Musgrove, Paxson, Crosco, gray, Povetta, Tyone. Stephen Mack. We're going to need seven because Paxon's going to be hurt.

Yeah. Mats. Mats for Bats. Wheeler, by the way, I think has two good matchups coming up. So he's 68% owned, unless he gets traded, then I don't know what his matchups will be. What was I going to say? Well, the rookies. I think Bieber and Peralta are the most interesting.

How do you feel about them? Beaver has been more impressive than I expected. The book on him as a prospect coming up, the scouting report, was that he was more of a finesse type of guy. And he actually has about league average velocity and, you know, can hit 95. So it's not, he's not just some soft tossing control. artist. There's actually some stuff there, and he's gotten a decent amount of strikeouts. So I think Shane Bieber can continue to be pretty good. I don't know how much upside there is, but he looks solid. And Peralta, I think he's a wildcard.

I worry about him. I just, I get it. Not a big arsenal, 92 mile per hour fastball. That apparently, what do you say? He has a good spin rate on it? Yeah, it's just deceptive. the thing is I get the concern and it does seem like implosion is coming but he's been incredible in double a and he's been incredible in AAA and he's been incredible in the majors and at some point we may just have to accept that he's just this good or at least that he's good in a way that kind of boggles the mind but 12.1 k per 9 in the majors and it was 12.8 at AAA this year. and it was 12.9 last year at double A, and it was 12.5.

The walks are coming back, though, aren't they? The walks are coming back. That's a little scary for Peralta. Yeah. So that's a big issue for him in the minors, but he was able to pitch around it. Heath, that cut you off? Nope. All right. Relief pitcher.

Second half All-Star. Whoever takes over for guys who get traded at the deadline, we could speculate on that. I guess Drew Steckenrider would be in. option for the Marlins of Kyle Baraclaw gets traded. But somebody's got to be on a good team to be our all-star, right? Somebody, you would think. Which is why.

Closers who are on good teams don't tend to get traded. Well, I've got two names for you, buddy. I got Will Smith and A.J. Minter. Okay. And, of course, big question is whether or not either of them will be the closer rest of the season. If Will Smith even is the closer, I think he is. I guess I worry a little bit about Melanson.

he's 35% own Will Smith but he's a really good pitcher he's been a good pitcher for basically his entire career and Minter I think you know they've wanted him to kind of ascend and I think he has a chance to run with his job how long is Strickland out

isn't he back in like three weeks I didn't like a four to six week I don't know why I didn't even think about that I think it was like a four to six week timetable and he's been out a couple weeks right yeah yeah Do you think he just jumps back into that job?

I think he probably gets that job back. That's stupid on my part. If he gets back to his old self, that's not a guarantee. He's out until mid-August because he's on the 60-day DL. But I don't think that move changed his timetable. But a guy out that long, you could see a closer come in, do well, and keep the job. Yeah, you could. Yeah.

It's just, it's another complicating factor. Now he's competing with two potential guys to take his job. All righty I'm going to save some emails for our next show Which will be on Thursday We're going to take tomorrow off And gee what do we do now Oh I'm sorry Heath did you want to give a reliever

No I think our all-star team should just use starters And use the starters for one innings In the late innings we don't need relievers We've seen how good Joe Musgrove can be as a reliever Yeah that's right Adam you know what time it is It's time to lay down the law

It's time to regulate All right, here we go. First regulation question is from D.C. from Florida. But now I'm confused. Says, Dear Carter, Buster, Carter, Bucie, Sanchez, and Coleman. So I got confused in the same way. I thought that was Buster. Yeah.

I have no idea. Gary's? Gary's. Oh, okay. Oh, okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. As I was finishing up Thursday's podcast, I was thinking about how my league wouldn't really need regulating. There's not a lot of trash talk or drama,

but my brother, the commissioner, called me 10 minutes later with a problem. Twist! Most of our league lives in Florida, but three people in the league live in North Carolina. So one of them, one of those three people in North Carolina, mails my brother a check for all three of them for the season. Normally there's no problem. But now one of the North Carolina guys won't return calls or texts from the guy who prepaid for him and now owes him money.

He texts him saying if he doesn't pay that my brother will lock him out from making any moves on the waiver wire or trades. My brother thinks that technically the deadbeat is all paid up because someone else paid for him. So it's between the North Carolina boys. What say you?

You kick him out of the league. But also, like, get Venmo or something. Guys, it's 2018. Like, Zell? PayPal, anything? Like, I have received money from all three of those sources in the last week.

You don't need to mail a check. That's true. Like, what are you, what are you paying for grain during the dust bowl? Forest trees. Forest, trees. No, this is the end. We've got to regulate. I am regulating.

You're regulating the wrong issue. Use Fenbo. I would not kick him out of the league yet. He is paid. It's been paid. So someone else paid for him in case people got confused. Someone else paid for him. This guy's refusing to pay the person that paid for him.

What do you do? Well, I would say that. guy should not pay for him next year. And if he doesn't pay next year, then he's out. The grift is strong. But I disagree with you guys. You are, no, no, you are the commissioner of the league. You're not commissioner of friendships.

No, no, I disagree. You're the commissioner of the league. His entry fee has been paid. I am not letting this guy off the hook. Yeah, I don't think. I don't think you let this guy. You are not a commissioner of morals. I lock his lineup.

I lock his lineup. I don't know. I don't know if you lock his lineup, but if he doesn't pay by the end of the season or by the time you're looking to start up next season, you kick him out of the league. This is Bush League. You have received your payment. And next year, use Venmo, Zell, overstepping your boundaries.

What the heck is Zell? League safe. It's like a Wells Fargo thing. Bank of America. Yeah, multiple sites. Next up. There are so many options. We gave you some different answers there.

It's encrypted. DC. You can choose what you want. He says PS, The Last Jedi was awesome. Next up, we've got Brandon in Ichero's first and last MLB state. That would be the state of Washington. and Brandon, says Dear Hadeo, Hideki, Dice K, and You, Japanese pitchers. I play on Yahoo, where Shohei Otani is two players, pitcher and hitter.

Before the season, my league agreed that an owner had to own both to have Otani. The assumption being that he'd be a valuable starting pitcher and questionable hitting asset. Now that he's only hitting, but both players are off the DL, both Otanis, owning Otani carries even more burden. I proposed eliminating our prior agreement with my commissioner opposed us. Does he own Otani? It doesn't say. What do you guys think?

Should we change the own both Otani's rule or stand by the preseason agreement? I don't think you change the rules in season. I think it also probably doesn't matter. I bet you do. That's funny. Yes. You cannot change the rule. And like the Otani, the hitter may be rosterable.

if he only cost you that one roster spot and it was a daily lineups league which Yahoo usually is, that would make sense. He is not rosterable if you have to use two roster spots on him, even in the daily lineup format. All right, next up, we've got the dude, the dude, says,

Hey, Walter, Donnie, and the Jesus. All right, we know this. This is the most overrated movie of all time, the Big LaBalas. You are a terrible person. You don't like Kill Bill I understand You said you said

Quentin Tarantino didn't make a good movie for 20 years Right You sit in the corner No it was it was factual It may have been 15 years I'm the commissioner of a redraft league Made up of mostly family And a few co-workers

The last two people to join the league Three years ago Uh Were neither family We're neither friends or co-worker Okay sorry The last two people to join the league Three years ago were friends of co-workers

I don't personally know them. However, we welcome them. One of the aforementioned friends of coworkers has won all three years he's been in the league. His reign is relentless, and it's not even fun anymore. My family members have asked if I could excuse him from the league since he is clearly on a different level than the league was originally intended for. We have a couple people that are wanting to join, so I think this is a good opportunity to get new players in the league and level the playing field.

Is this a terrible move, or is it reasonable based on our situation? I think it's fair to excuse him from the league and see if he wants to form a more competitive league or I can join one of his if openings are available, maybe a weekly DFS challenge. I really want to beat this guy, but I don't want to burn bridges and even if I don't really know him too well. Can I regulate this league without guilt or do I need the regulating? I am only going to answer this question in movie quotes. You're living in the past. Is that from Big Loboski?

Big LaBowse. Is that the end of your answer? Yeah. Yeah, you're living in the past. I don't get. You didn't regulate. It's the worst answer. Yeah, that was really.

This is not numb, Smoky. I'm going to answer a rule. You scroll down and look for a better quote from that movie to, uh, I am the walrus. I, listen, you're kind of giving him a little bit of a gift when you remove him from the league as well. How much would you like it as? a fantasy genius to be able to say, I dominated this one league so much, they asked me to leave because I want it too often. I think you can do this. I think you can do it.

It's your family league. I think you have the right to ask him. It's kind of, it's, you know, it sucks, but it's, I get it. I apologize. I would do it. I am the walrus. I think you should have to make a public proclamation on the league website that you are too good for us. The following people have requested that you be removed from the league because they can't reach them.

Okay, I don't think you have to do that. But, yes, you could do this. Last one is from Chris. Dear Stephen, Jordan, Adam, and AJ. The Backstreet Boys. These are pitchers to sign the largest deals after Tommy John surgery. Steven Strasper. Or the Backstreet Boys.

Jordan, who? 98 degrees. Zimmerman? Did he have Tommy John? I don't remember Bobby Tom. Yeah. All right. Jordan Zimmerman and Adam Wainwright?

Yeah, sure. And A.J. Burnett, I guess. Yeah, or AJ Puck. Yes, 98 degrees. 16-team Dynasty League, I own Garrett Richards. With his Tommy John surgery coming at the end of his contract, his actual MLB contract, there's a good chance that Garrett Richards does not sign a new contract until he comes back from the surgery.

With him not being signed to a major league team, he will not be placed on the DL, and therefore, Garrett Richards in his Dynasty League will not be DL eligible. In this case, I would need to burn a bench spot for Richards for potentially a full year in order to hold onto him. If this occurs, should I petition the league to see if I can get an exception for Richards and allow an injured player not signed to a deal to be placed on my fantasy deal? Or should I just give in, drop him, and hope I can get Richards back when he signs? You should petition your league, but then they should send us an email saying,

listen to this dope, he wants us to change the rules because a guy on his team can't be held. I think you're putting the horse before the proverbial cart here. Michael Paneda signed last year. The horse goes before the cart. Yeah, you're putting the horse before the cart. You'd be putting the cart before the horse if you had it in the wrong order. Because the horse pulls the carts. I'm a city slicker.

I don't know about horses and or carts. One of them goes before the other one and one is not supposed to. Whichever one is not supposed to be that is what you're doing. Michael Panetta signed coming off Tommy John's surgery last year. God, there's another example that I was going to use. Nate of Aldi also signed while coming back from Tommy John surgery. Wilson Ramos was signed coming back from an ACL tear. So I think this probably won't be an issue.

I would guess somebody will give Garrett Richards a two-year deal worth this $8 million or something. Garrett Richards, two-year deal with $8 million. That's basically what they're going to do. All right, Chris. What? I was singing to the two and a number. regulators. Because one of the guys, by the way,

the dude, the guy who wrote the Labowski email said, Adam, keep singing, homie. Your co-hosts are jealous of your talent. I don't think we've ever criticized your singing abilities. I don't know if that's true. All right, we're out of here. We're back on Thursday. Talk to you then, everybody.