Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/18: Manny Machado trade, Bold Predictions, and Prospects (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 19, 2018

We prepare you for the start of the second half with sleeper pitchers to consider for this weekend, but first we break down the Manny Machado trade. Are any of the prospects the Orioles picked up worth considering? Plus, Scott White's second-half breakouts, our bold predictions for the second half, and prospect call-ups to look forward to. Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We're back and ready for the second half of the baseball season here on the fantasy baseball today podcast. I'm Chris Towers, billing in for Adam Azer, who congratulations. Adam Azer is the father of a beautiful baby boy. Heath Cummings and Scott White also here. Would you like to say congratulations to Adam as well? Enough Greg Bird talk already. I'm surprised he didn't name it Greg Bird, to be honest. We have a Greg Bird email. Congratulations, Adam Azer.

We're very happy for you. Of course. Of course. Very happy for you and your beautiful wife. Did you guys enjoy the All-Star game? It was actually a fun All-Star game. It was very fun. It didn't get fun to late. Heath, did you watch the All-Star game? Fun final couple innings. The Home Run Derby was really good. Yeah? So that's a no on watching the All-Star game? I didn't watch the whole thing. I did not see one pitch of the All-Star game.

I don't blame you. Okay, Scott, you probably disagree. You like the All-Star game, right? We've talked about it. this. I don't think I've missed an All-Star game since I first started watching baseball over 25 years ago. The allure of the All-Star game is kind of gone a little bit with Interleague play. I think that's how I feel. Because when I was a kid, I remember being really excited to watch Ken Griffey Jr. and like Roberto Alamar and Omar Veskel and all these players that like I would only see in the playoffs otherwise. And now, you know, MLVTV, Twitter highlights, everything. I can see all those guys. There's no player that I'm like missing out on. Yeah, what killed it for me was MLB at bad, I think. It's just I see every player every night

through a variety of games. And so it's not quite as it's, I don't know. If you enjoy it, I'm glad you enjoyed it. It sounds like it was a very entertaining game. I didn't make the choice not to watch it. It wasn't like, oh, I'm not going to watch the all-sword game. It's terrible. I just never turn it on. I mean, it's, you don't see them all on the field together. and it's a looser environment. You know what I love about the All-Star game, and maybe this is like, maybe this

can sum up the difference, because it's a really mundane thing. But I just love the player introductions at the beginning. Like them going through and every player individually waving at the crowd. Like that, I can't miss that. Like, that to me is just

it's just something I have to see every year. I will tell you two standouts from this All-Star game for me. One, Francisco Lindor being interviewed in the middle of the game was just absolutely delightful in baseball on even more stuff like that. Pretty much all. Pretty much. All of them except... In-game interviews were great.

Except for Trout. Except for Mike Trout, he just has nothing interesting to say ever. And I think it was a bad idea for Rob Manfred to basically put him on blasting that way, but he wasn't wrong. Mike Trout is a... One other thing we learned during the All-Star game, sometimes it's better if you don't have anything

to say. I don't know. Who are we referring to? Yeah, no, we won't, yeah. Okay, the other highlight was a player essentially being traded from the American League to the National League essentially in the middle of the game, right? Like that was when it started to be confirmed that Mani Machado was traded to the Dodgers, and that's what we'll talk about right now, because that's the biggest piece of news. And frankly, one of the only real pieces of news that we've gotten over the last couple of days since we last talk to you,

Mani Machado obviously traded to the Dodgers for a pretty interesting prospect. Hall, right, Scott? Yeah, only one of them's a big name prospect. Yus Niel Diaz. And when I say big name, it's not like he's some mainstay on top 100 lists. He's like a top 50 guy now, right? I think I saw Baseball America and Baseball Perspectus had him in their top 50 midseason. Okay.

And he's had a good year. He's had one of his best years at AA, got on base a lot and more walks than strikeouts. kind of reminds me a little of just Jesse Winker, except he's not quite the on-base hawk Winker is, but that similar profile where you're good bat skills, but you're not sure how the power's going to play up at the highest level. So we'll see. I mean, it's certainly not a can't-miss prospect. I don't know that they could expect to get a can't-miss prospect with a rental. Those trades, you know, we had the Aroldus Chapman for Glaber Torres trade a couple years ago,

but for the most part, rentals don't fetch that kind of prospect anymore. But there are a few other prospects who, like they're not, they're not named prospects, but they're having interesting years in the minors. Anybody the fantasy owners need to know about besides Eucinel Diaz, who let's, we'll give the scanner report. You know, obviously we can talk about what Manny Machado of the Dodgers means, but frankly, it doesn't change his value that much outside of AL and NL only leagues. So Yucinel Diaz hitting 314, striking out about 15% of the time at DHS. AA this year as a 21-year-old, six homers, 20 extra base hits total in 59 games, so not a ton of power,

but the kind of profile that we could see becoming maybe a 20 homer guy in the majors. Eight stolen bases, but here's the weird thing. Eight stolen bases on 16 attempts, that's actually his best stolen base percentage ever. 50%. For his career, he has 24 stolen bases and 30 caught stealings. a, you know, he is a willing base stealer.

He's not a bad kid. He gets caught every time he does something at all. He's not an able one, so not necessarily sure. I doubt he's going to try much of that in the majors. So, Scott, yeah, tell us about the other prospects. The second most important, interesting prospects of this group is Dean Kramer, K-R-E-M-E-R, who has huge strikeout numbers in the California League, which is the most hitter-friendly of all the minor leagues, some impressive numbers there.

but it's a prospect who wasn't even on my radar before this trade went through. And that's part of the fun of trades like this, is suddenly these guys become names just because they're involved in trades. And I think maybe going forward we're going to hear Dean Kramer's name a little more. Well, with the Orioles, the Orioles, track record of getting the most out of pitching prospects. I think you have to be excited about Dean Kramer. I think you're being sarcastic, right? It seemed like it was probably snark.

No. Yeah. Hey, look, Dylan Bundy's come through for the most part, right? Yeah. Took a while. Yeah. So what do we think this means for the Dodgers lineup? Obviously a team that early on looked like they needed help now.

They've had too many guys for too few batting order spots already. Where do we think is Manny Machado, first of all, is he going to play shortstop in Los Angeles? I think mostly, yes, but they've also said he's going to play some third base. I mean, third base is the position Justin Turner plays. He's not one of the guys who moves around. So when Manny Machado plays third base, Justin Turner will be out of the lineup. And you wouldn't think that would happen very often. But when everybody's healthy, which means Pue comes back from an oblique strain that shouldn't keep him out for very long,

when everybody's healthy, somebody of note is going to have to be out of the lineup. I imagine it'll be a different somebody every day. But I feel like a player or two is probably going to take the brunt of that. And if Turner's power stroke doesn't come around, it could be him. It could be Jack Peterson. It could be Pueke himself. At first, I worried it could be Chris Taylor just because he isn't having the year he had last year. but I think his defense, like he's their, of all the bats they want in their lineup,

he's the best center fielder and he's the best second basement. So I think that'll keep him in the lineup for the most part. And they need, like, we don't care about this for fantasy, but they need a couple of people that actually carry gloves with them onto the baseball field at certain positions, because they've done some really wacky things in terms of defensive position. I'm going to assume that we're just not, when everybody's healthy, we're not going to see Jock Peterson against lefties. I would assume that'll be the case.

And then we're going to see Kemp slash Turner slash Pueg, and occasionally the other guys, too, when they're facing Rites. Yeah, they've mentioned already that Chris Taylor will play shortstop, second base, and the corner outfield as well as center field. So he'll be in the lineup somewhere most days, I think. Who loses the most value as a result of this trade? Besides Mani Machado and A.L. Only leagues. Probably Peterson.

And I would be a little worried about Justin Turner and a little worried about Yassil Puy. Basically, the Dodgers I feel good about, Dodgers hitters I feel really good about right now are Machado, of course, Cody Ballinger, and Max Muncie with maybe Chris Taylor checking in fourth on that list. Okay. Let's move on to some injury notes. For the rest of the show, we are going to be talking about some of the pitching rotation. and pitching news that has happened over the last couple of days. Sleeper pitchers for, are we calling this week 17? We're about to get to the really confusing part of the season

where there's like three different week numbers. Yeah, it really helped that we started the season with half of us disagreeing already. Like from week one on. We agreed. We agreed. There was week one. And then there was whenever week two started.

Exactly. So we're going to talk about some week 17 sleeper pitchers and that's just pitchers to possibly stream this weekend. We'll have Scott. Scott White, do you have some second half breakouts? Did you see that in the notes? I do have a couple pitchers and a couple hitters to play your

great. We're going to talk about some of your top prospects. You did your mid-season top 25 prospects list. So we'll talk about that. We're going to fire up the call up o meter. You know, you guys know that one? I don't know that one. You know, I love my meters.

I mean, you know, Heath's always going to go 10 and 1 and I'm going to him and haw and go what do you mean? I don't ever go 10 and 1. You're going to talk for about 45 seconds about how you feel about the situation without giving a number. And then I'm going to say nothing but the number itself. And we're going to have your emails on Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. And we'll have some second half. Hot takes.

I want to call that? Bold predictions. I prefer. I'm not like hot takes. First, let's talk about some of the injury notes from the last couple of days. Wilson Ramos was placed on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. That'll keep him out. potentially through the end of the month, which is an interesting situation because the

raise were definitely looking to trade Wilson Ramos. He was one of the bigger catchers available, and that creates some interesting situations with a team like Washington who pretty desperately needs a catcher upgrade. So that's something to keep an eye on. Yoann assessment is homered played first in a rehab game on Wednesday night. He has played three straight games and could be back as the Mets DH on Friday. Scott Shebbler's on the DL with a sprain in his right AC. joint? I am not happy that Scott Shevler is injured. I hope

that he is not in pain and he recovers quickly, but Jesse Winker, everyday baseball player. I mean, this is what we needed from, because all four of those guys, really, are fantasy relevant to some degree. I think Adam DeVall's probably the least interesting, but

Yeah, I would have much more quickly sacrificed Adam Duvall's AC joint. But, but Jesse Winker now, hopefully we'll play every day. Billy Hamilton hopefully will play every day and he's been good since the start of June or at least he's been the Billy Hamilton we hope to see. He's hitting like 270, stealing a bunch of bases and Adam Deval

will hit home runs. It might be all he does, but so that's that's the interesting news from there. Andrew Miller should be back from the DL after the All-Star break. Drew Pomerans made his third and potentially final start in his rehab assignment as he comes back from a biceps injury. He could be the replacement in the rotation for Eduardo Rodriguez. Any interest in Drew Pomeran's Yeah, I mean, he's going to be pitching for a good team, obviously has a pretty good track record. He wasn't throwing as hard as we're used to seeing before going on the DL, so it's not a surprise he struggled. But he's back to form. I mean, he's worth a flyer in case he is back to form.

My thing, and I think it's probably something we should talk about on this show, because a lot of people probably doing the same thing I did going in and saying, okay, I've got to get my lineup set for this week because we have one stupid game on a third. Thursday. And I don't have an excess of roster spots. There are a lot of players. And this has been a trend. I think Scott's talked about over the last couple of weeks. There have been more high profile guys coming off the disabled list than going on it. And there are a lot of players that are coming off the disabled list over the week, expected to come back Friday. I'm dropping a lot more guys than I'm adding today and yesterday. Yeah, by the way, the Cardinals and Cubs do play tonight. Is that like a rain makeup, or is that just... They have five games in this three-game week for everybody else. So, like, you're starting... I'm starting in Hep in a league.

I mean, it makes sense. Like, the part of the... Like, you can't fully take advantage of it, especially with the Cubs, because they have so many guys they move in and out of the lineup app among them, Zobris. A word. Pretty much anybody who's available is somebody who doesn't play every day.

So you can't expect them to play the full five games. But I mean, Cardinals, when in doubt, if you're looking to add somebody off waivers this week, Cardinals and Cubs, is not a bad idea just because two extra games. Like, basically twice as many games. And I think on the long week, they have 12 games, I saw, which is just ridiculous. So Harrison Bader, Colton Wong. Jed Jerko is probably my favorite between the two teams. Yeah. Triple eligible, only like 20% owned on CBS leagues.

Albert Almora. Even less than that on other sites probably. Albert Almora's been hitting the ball really well this season, so he's someone to consider. And a few other injury notes before we move on. Sean Doolittle threw off flat ground as he recovers from a toe injury. He could be back fairly shortly. And Glaber Torres is hoping to be back from his hip injury on July 23rd. So that'll be a nice one.

What are your expectations for Glabertora's in the second half? Do you think he's playing over his head? The home run pace has to slow. He can make up in other areas, I think. Because it's a fine, like it's a quality battled ball profile. Like, he's not just selling out for homers. Good line drive rate. I think he's good.

All right, let's talk about some pitching notes. And then we'll look at pitchers for the weekend. that you can possibly add to stream based on Scott White's sleeper pitchers for this weekend on CBSports.com slash fantasy pitching notes de Grom's agent basically asked for a trade that is obviously Jacob de Grom asked for a trade from the Mets I mean he basically said give me an extension or trade me what are we doing here he's basically saying he wants to be traded he's under contract through next year as well right I believe so okay well I mean it's not like it's common is to give a guy an extension,

a guy that high profile, an extension a couple years out from free agency. Right, he's asking for a trade. He's not really asking for an extension. I guess. Miles Michaelis will start Sunday versus the Chicago Cubs.

Nick Troppiano will return from his injury against Houston. He had a 483-ERA, been on the DL since June 15th. Probably don't have a lot of interest in him. And Jesse Hahn and Eric Skogland began their rehab assignments for the Royals, any interest at all in either of those guys?

No. All right. If he doesn't, then I don't. All right. Let's talk about sleeper pitchers for this weekend. Scott, who's your favorite? My favorite, and this is a guy who's bumping up against the 80% threshold, but my favorite is Kyle Gibson, who I feel like should be universally owned

and probably would be, if not for a four and six record. I mean, the ERA is good, the way of the strikeout rate. The fact, he's facing the Royal. guy goes seven innings consistently. I think you're going to pick him up if he isn't owned already and you won't want to drop him. So over the last 365 days, he's made 31 starts, 348 ERA over 186 in a third innings, 8.6K per 9, 1.234 FIP or 1.234 ERR. Jesus. 1.234 whip.

Whip. with a 2992 bab-up. So not a lot of good luck there. He looks to be a much better pitcher than we probably gave him credit for coming into the season. So probably someone that you'll keep on your roster. Anybody else on this list who you really want to talk about, Scott? Well, John Gray looked good in his first start back. He's at the Humidor Chase Field.

And I think when your options are limited this week, you gamble on the upside there. We'll talk about him a little more later, though. I think among those that are scarcely owned that pretty much everybody's going to have a chance to pick up, my favorite is Hermann Marquez, who is... His road numbers just keep getting better and better. He's also at Chasefield, obviously. 262 ERA, 0.98 whip, 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings in nine road starts. And his last start was actually against the Diamondbacks.

It was a home start where he's terrible usually. and he had a really strong start against them. Two earned runs, six innings with eight strikeouts. He looks like a safe play, even if, you know, he may not be somebody you want to hold on to since he is so bad at home. Yeah, he has improved this season.

Swinging strike rate is up. Strikeout rate up as well. You look at the FIP and it's not a great story, but I think that's probably cores inflated. And the true talent level on the road, he has a 379 X-FIP. That probably tells closer to why, what he is on the road.

And if he's a mid-high-3-ZRA guy with a strikeout printing, he's probably pretty useful every time he's pitching on the road. Half the time, yeah. The two guys I'm excited about, and a lot of it has to do with match-up, but the guys that have underperformed and have big upside and have great matchups, Nick Povetta and Vince Velasquez.

Who are they going up against? The Padres. That is a great situation for both of those guys. Although, now we can probably not say the best matchup in baseball anymore. It's well my respect. It's definitely the role. Oh, well, it's probably the Orioles now. Yeah.

Those are the two lowest, even though they have the DH, the Royals and Orioles are the two lowest scoring teams in the majors, which is pretty amazing in and of itself. God, and the Royals playing a great part too. That's going to be really bad. They never walk. That's a bad lineup, yeah. I hadn't really considered the ramifications of that,

but the Orioles are going to be a team that you should probably target with your pitchers moving forward. And facing them this week is the Blue Jays. Okay. So you'll get a, you get a J-Hap start against them? That'll probably be a good one. Yeah, I mean, Jayhap and Marcus Stroman are two owned to call sleepers. The other one is Sam Gaviglio, who's not somebody I can get excited about,

but if you have to go really deep searching for a picture this week. I don't mind him as a sleeper against this team. He's got, I think, better stuff than we probably give him credit for. he just hasn't figured out how to use it yet. And the Orioles with Manny Machado this year are tied with the Padres for the lowest Wopa in baseball. So it's probably not going to get better. That's not great.

All right, you guys want to do your bold predictions for the second half? Sure. Scott, you want to go first? We'll go round table. Scott goes first, then me. Okay, is this bold enough? You ready?

Chris Bryant hits twice as many home runs as he hit in the first half. What, he hit 10? 10. He hits 20 in the second half. I could definitely see that happen. Just a monster, monster finish to the season. It really doesn't make sense. The lack of power.

I can't completely ignore it because it's, you know, it dates back to last year. It's over a year long where this has been the case. But the batted ball profile suggests he's, still should be hitting lots of homers. A ton of fly balls. You know, pretty good amount of hard contact. And it's just surprising that it's been so low. So I think he comes roaring back here.

And if he doesn't come roaring back, it's seriously going to jeopardize his early round status, I think, heading into next year. Let's say he just continues on this pace. How far does Chris Bryant fall for you next year? Is he a second round pick or third round pick? he's definitely not a second round pick. You know, just a couple weeks ago, I did.

Because, like, he hasn't been much. I projected the first two rounds for next year based on, obviously, what we've seen so far this year. And Chris Bryant was barely creeping into the second round still on that list. But that was giving him a lot of benefit of the doubt. If he doesn't have a monster second half, he loses that benefit of the doubt, probably slip, maybe slips to the fourth round, honestly. He's barely been better than Nick Castianos this season.

I'm not sure if he has to. I mean, the DEL stint probably affects that, but even on a per game basis, I'm not sure he's been better than Nekestia on us. Yeah. Heath? Bold prediction? I thought we were doing two. Yeah. Scott game two already?

We're going round table, one each. Okay, I'll talk about the only player I'm allowed to talk about it anymore. Jake Bowers will be a top 10 first baseman in the second half. In both formats. Definitely in points. Okay. Definitely in points. I don't know that he can be top 10 in Roto.

but it's possible. But I do think he will start. We'll see a little bit more power. Like Chris Bryant, he will probably have twice as many home runs as he hit in the first half as well. Part of that's because he only played 36 games in the first half. He's going to hit six in the second half?

But he's only going to play like 60. He hit five in the first half in 36 games. He hits 10 in the second half, gives him 15, steals seven or eight bases. The average, I would not be surprised, but it's a little bit higher as well. Okay. Yeah, top 10, that might be bold.

I'm going to go a little bolder. That's pretty bold. I'm starting him over Edwin and Carnaccio on this week. Yeah, that one's interesting. I'm not sure I would do that. Scott? What was the option again? I'm starting Jake Bowers at first base over Edwin and Carossion.

For this week... It is an extended week. Oh, an extended week. But Incarnazion's a little banged up. He has 10 games to Encarnacion's 9, and six of those games are against the Marlins and Orleans. reals. Yeah. Yeah, I don't think it's crazy. I don't think it's, I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea. I'm sorry for not listening. I was thinking about my next bold prediction. I was hoping you were going to say you were like thinking about food or something. That would have been better. That would have been more, more understandable. I'm going to go with a bold prediction that builds off one of my second half breakouts from Tuesdays or Monday's episode whenever we did that. Yohan Moncada will be a top five second baseman in the second half of the season in rotisserie scoring. He is of late over the last about 20 games.

He has really cut down his strikeout right now. It's still very high. It's 28% or something over the last 20 games. He's always going to strike out a lot. But he makes really, really good contact. He's fast. All he needs is just be bad at striking out. Just strike out a lot instead of as much as Joey Gallo.

And I think he can be a 280 hitter with 10 home runs and 15 steals in the second half. I don't think you thought this went through. Why's that? Is Ewan Mankata going to be better than Jose Altuva? No. Is he going to be better than Jose Ramirez? No.

Is he going to be better than Ozzy Albies? Maybe. You don't believe that. Is he going to be better in Roto than D. Gordon? No. Is he going to be better than Brian Dozier? Second half Brian Dozier? Yeah.

Yeah, I could see him being, but look, it's bold. Okay. It's bold. Oh, and Max Muncie. He's relying on a little good force. Max Muncie? It's bold. Max Muncie?

Okay, look, you might be using Jose Ramirez's third base. You might be using Max Muncie. That does not change the fact that he's not a top five second base. He's going to be a top five second base only player in the second half. Second base only player. Okay, I buy that because that eliminates Ramirez, Gordon, and Max Muncie. So there you go. Scott?

Yeah. Okay. You want another bold prediction? I do. That's the whole point. That is the point of the exercise. My other bold prediction is that AJ Mentor. is the Braves closer for the rest of the season.

Erodus Viscayino's course is on the DL right now with shoulder inflammation. It's not thought to be a serious injury, but it's on the heels of, well, I think it's the second sentence for the same injury, frankly. Yeah. So the thought is mentor with maybe some Dan Winkler's going to fill in, and Viscayino will just take the job when he gets back. He's been fine in the role, whatever. But I just feel like the Braves really, really want A.J. Mentor to be their closer. I feel like this is the momentum he needs to just kind of take the job and run with it. He had some control issues early in the year.

But since the start of May, only five walks. And since the start of June, only two walks. You know, he's getting his fastball up to 98, 99 again, more than a strikeout per inning. and I think he's going to do well enough that they just don't give the job back to this guy once he's ready to go. So that's a bold prediction. Hopefully it's bold enough for you.

It's fine. Like he is currently the Braves closer, right? He's... Yeah, I mean, if I had to pick... So... Well, I'm saying rest of season now. Okay. So he will keep his job.

No, he's a fill-in closer, Heath. Come on. Come on. Clearly it's not bold enough. Let's hear your extremely bold prediction that nobody can question because it's just so bold. Carlos Rodon will be the fourth best left-handed starting pitcher in the American League in the second half. That is bold. I can't compete with that boldness.

Who's his competition? Who's he going to be better than him? Who's he going to be better than? Let's talk about it that way. Is he going to be better than James Paxton? Oh, I'm going to give you all the names that he's going to be better than him. Okay. David Price is a left-handed pitcher in the American League.

That's fine. Dallas Keikle. Mm-hmm. Jayhap. This is not very... Sean Maniah. This is not bold. This is extremely unbolded.

The fourth best left-handed pitcher is the American League. This is italicized. He's... Marco Gonzalez. I mean, it's reasonably bold to say he's going to be better than all those guys who... Andrew Heaney. ...than him so far. But we're not even...

You said top four in the AL, right? The AL, that... that couldn't fit Blake Snell on its All-Star roster initially. Yeah, it's not that bold. He's not going to be better than Blake's time. It's not that bold. It's not that bold. It's not that bold.

To say Carlos Rodon's going to be a top four pitcher in the AO. A left-handed pitcher. Oh, did I miss the left-handed part? Yeah. Okay. So who is it? It's Snell, Paxton. There's a guy for the Red Sox that throws really hard.

Cale. Chris wrote a piece about him. Those three and then Roton, the big four lefties in the American. league. That's not bold at all. I'm going to go bold. How about this? In the second half of the 2018 major league baseball season,

Garrett Cole will not be a top 20 starting pitcher in rotissory fantasy scoring. Top 20 pitcher. Okay. How about that? Whoa. Wait. So you just threw the relievers in there, too. Yeah, I mean, they're not that good.

Is that bold enough? That's certainly bolder than yours. That's bold. I mean, I... It's bolder than throwing three splits. Cere, Cole has not been... If... If that would surprise most people,

and it would surprise me if he doesn't finish in the top 12th rest of season. I said top 20. Top 20, sorry. It would surprise me if he didn't do that. So I would say that's bold, because I would be surprised if that doesn't happen. And you're predicting that... He's been the number five pitchers.

So that's bold enough for me. He's been the number five pitchers. so far this season. And he's not been in the top 20 for the last two months. He probably has been. Lots of strikeouts. He's been good. He hasn't been, you know, he hasn't been like a pitcher in baseball good that he was in April. All right, let's, Scott, let's talk about some second half breakouts for you. How many do you have? I know you've got some pitchers and some hitters.

I've got a couple of pitchers, a couple hitters. I'm going to be writing a column for each of these later, so I'll have even more. I think Jake Bauer's suggestion is probably going to wind up on the list. Hitters for me also includes Jesse Winker, who we've gotten into a little today, but he's been basically over the last six weeks. He's been... Like a 1,200 OPS guy. Like a 1,200 OPS guy, because he walks, he gets on base so much, and, you know, just, hitting for a decent amount of power, a 20 to 25 homer guy, that kind of pace, makes him

just a complete monster for how much he gets, like, almost like a mini Joey Votto, frankly. And if he's playing regularly, if the batted ball profile, if he continues to live up to that, which is, you know, the power he's shown recently is more in line with that than what he was doing earlier in the season. If he carves out this everyday role for himself, it could be huge. And I took the step of actually, you know, this is obviously kind of a gut feeling sort of thing.

I actually dropped Kyle Tucker for him in a points league. But Kyle Tucker's like twice his own as Jesse Winker. And so I went ahead and made the move to do that. So since May 24th, he is hitting 3.41 with a 4-6. 61 on base percentage and a 1,017 OPS. He strikes out 12.9% of the time in that span. He walks about 18% of the time. He's not hitting for a ton of power, like you said.

Yeah, it's been more recent. That's been more like the last six weeks. That's when he hit his first home run. That's why I like to, he hadn't hit a home run in his first. 44 games of the season, his last 41, he has seven. So that's probably 25 homer pace over the course of a full season. but that just shows how good the contact abilities are and how good the plate discipline is for him.

He's been a lot better than I think most people realize this season. And playing times has had something to do with that. The slow start is a lot to do with that. But yeah, he's coming around in a loud way. And he's gotten to avoid lefties, so that helps too. He's not terrible against them. No, he has a 713, and what 713 OPS, and what you're hoping for, we talked about it a lot with, like, Andrew Ben,

is you're just hoping these guys can hold their own against lefties. Yeah. All right. Who's your next breakout? Do you want to go with a pitcher or a hitter? Well, the other one we've already talked a little about is John Gray, who I think, I mean, we've gone over the numbers before, but when he got sent down, he had top 12. FIPP, top 12 swinging strike rate.

Big improvement over last year, by the way. I was kind of skeptical about him coming into this season because the swinging strike rate just didn't match up with the strikeout rate and particularly with the unfavorable home environment. I wasn't sure that was going to hold up, but he has been, his pitches have been more overpowering this season. He just had this issue with runners on base that he's never had in the past before. But the numbers were just dreadful against them. And it led to this kind of snowball effect every time, every time things started to go wrong for him. He only got two starts in the miners and obviously, not many runners reached against him,

so I don't know that he's worked it out, but since it's something that he hadn't really struggled with in the past, I think it's just a small change he's going to need. And if he makes that change, he could be an ace the rest of the way, a guy who just spent some time in the minors. Yeah, he was weirdly hitable last season, had an 80% contact rate for his career at 75.6%.

And this season, that's down to 71%. So he induces a lot of swings and misses. Last season he didn't, but he's still got a decent number of strikeouts. He's taking both of those skills to the next level. And we, Heath, I think you and I talked about this on Monday or Tuesday. The one issue with John Gray is, yes, he has a 319 Sierra and a 283X FIP and a 303 FIP and all of those, I think, are top 10 marks in baseball.

He's probably not going to reach them. Just because of where he pitches his home games, you know, for his career, he has a 336 FIP and a 465. ERA. Last season he had a 318 FIP and a 367 ERA, but he looks like... It's a really low FIP. He doesn't have to reach it to be really good. Yeah, if he's half a run worse than his fit for the rest of the season, he's a 350 ERA pitcher with an with 11 Ks per 9. So that's still really good. I think that's the takeaway. Yes, sir. Two more breakouts from Scott White.

All right, Jurekson ProFar. I think he's going to break out. He's already been usable this year, especially in points leaves because good plate discipline and and a lot of extra base hits, not so much home runs. But you look at the batted ball profile and it seems like he's had a lot of bad luck. His BIP's only about 250 despite a high line drive rate and a not so high fly ball rate, which can often hurt BABIP. And yet the fly ball rate isn't so low that you expected to limit his home runs in a severe way. So I think...

Not a ton of infield fly balls either or pop-ups. Yeah, yeah. I think he's had some bad luck and I think the best is yet to come. The thing, and this is, we have had two presidential elections since Jerks and ProFar made his major league debut. And he's only 25.

Yeah. It's incredible. And this was a guy who was, you know, I don't know if he was the best prospect in baseball. He was. He was. Baseball America had him as number one the year he debuted, I think. Yeah, and he got called up really fast, has gotten kind of jerked around his playing time,

has had injury issues. I think he had, did he have Tommy John? Or was it a shoulder issue? I think it was shoulder. Yeah, he had some serious injury issues, and they've kind of derailed his career, but still only 25. He has nine homers, eight steals, 50 runs scored in 46 RBI and 85 games. He's on a 90-9.

90 pace almost. So, you know, if the batting average corrects, he could be a 270 hitter with, you know, potentially 2020 potential. Yeah, I think, I think in points leagues, you know, I might be willing to make the bold prediction if he could be top five at the second base. And obviously he's eligible in more spots than, then Yohan Makata is. You know, Rotolese, it'll be a little tougher because I don't, I don't expect a huge home run total from him, but he is eligible everywhere.

except for catcher and pitcher. He could be before this power explosion from Jose Ramirez. I think he could be what Jose Ramirez was. I think that's the upside for Jerks and ProFar.

And one more pitcher breakout. Let's hear it. I'm going to go with old stand by Domingo Hermann. Who's fluctuated between great and bad. But I just think the stuff

I think the stuff is rare for any pitcher, you're much less a rookie pitcher in terms of getting swinging strikes on three different pitches. And with a little better consistency, I think he could be a stud. I do wonder if he'll get the opportunity because you assume the Yankees are going to be buyers. And while I think Sunny Gray would probably get ousted before Hermann does, at some point Hermann could run into an inning's issue as well. but I would

I know he's been getting he seems to be getting he seems to show up on the most dropped list every time he has a bad start I know I hear a bit on Twitter every time he has a bad start it's a roller coaster

yeah and I think I think it's going to level off here in the most in the most positive way he feels like 2017 Nick Povetta to me like he's just interesting enough

to not write off but well that wouldn't that also be 2018 Nick Povetta Well, Nick Povetta's ERA's a run lower and his FIPs are run lower and his Sierra's a run lower. Like, he's been considerably better. It's a high fours ERA, though. Like, I don't think everybody's ERA, okay?

And I want to go back to the pro four thing because it made me think of a decent deeper league or just Roto only breakout. And it's a similar guy. It's at Alberto Mondesie. Okay. Good. I'm glad. Made his debut a long, long time ago, but it's still just 22 years. years old. This is Raul.

He had a different name when he made his debut. That was so long, he's a different person. Yes. Has a dad and a brother named Raul. Well, I get why I'd want to go by a different name. Yes. That'd get confusing at dinner. Exactly. Raoul passed the potatoes. He started to show a little progress

before the break. He has big stolen base potential. It's still too small of a sample size to get too excited about his batted ball data, but it looks a lot better than it did the last couple of times that he'd been up. And so, there's a chance that he makes a pretty big impact in Roto in the second half. He's still, it's a question of whether he can hit for power.

He either needs to hit for more power for me, or he needs to stop striking out. Because he's still striking out 27% of the time. That's true. And the profile doesn't necessarily suggest that there's a lot of power there. He did hit 13 homers last season at AAA. He had five before getting called up. But that's the difference between him and obviously it's a different caliber of prospect, but Yoha Mancada,

where if Yonamankata strikes out 27% of the time, I'm thrilled because I think he can be a star. Mondesie probably needs to get to, like, the Delano de Shields, like 20% range. Yeah. And he doesn't walk at all. Yeah.

Which doesn't help you. He runs. Some other notes, before we move on to the last couple of segments of the show, the Nationals could revisit a deal for J.T. Rao Muto, so that's something to keep an eye on. He could be a second-half breakout, if only because he'll have more counting stat opportunity.

Well, can you be a breakout when you've been the best catcher in fantasy? Evan Gattis has been the best catcher fantasy. What's he going to break out to? Well, he could maybe not break out, but he could have better RBI and run numbers hitting in that lineup than he does in the Marlins lineup. I put the Indians are interested in Andrew Miller in the notes. I would hope they're interested in Andrew Miller,

but they are also, in addition, interested in Brad Hand. That's something to keep an eye on with Brad Hand because he would pretty obviously not be the closer. in Cleveland. Are we sure? So, I guess Shaw's had a bad season, right? His ERA's like in the four range? I'm not sure, actually, but it's been,

their bullpins, without Andrew Miller, it's been bad. Yeah. Let me look that up. Sorry. Not Shaw? Cody Allen has a 466. He can definitely replace Shaw.

That's who I was thinking of. Cody Allen has a 466 ERA. The FIP is 428, so he has been pretty bad this season. The entire bullpen really has had issues keeping the ball in the yard. Every single pitcher that's currently in their bullpen with the exception of Oliver Perez and Brandon Geyer, who's only pitched one inning, has a home run per nine above 1.4.

That's a problem. So I guess Bradhand could be the closer in Cleveland, but I probably wouldn't expect it. I mean, Cody Allen's a fine closer. part of the reason you were always halfway predicting Andrew Miller would take over at some point because it really was no contest which was the better between the two of them, Miller and Allen. If Miller does come back healthy and is able to contribute in the second half, and they do acquire Brad Hands, you'd have to think, both of them being lefties,

they'd want to save a left. Instead of having two lefties bridge to the ninth, they'd want to have one actually pitch the ninth. So I don't know that he, I don't know the hands would definitely be out of a closer gig. But it's possible, no matter where he goes, that that he could end up playing second fiddle and not get saves anymore,

which would be sad because he's a great closer. Any closer candidates in San Diego to keep an eye on? Their whole bullpen is pitching well. part of that is Pecco, part of that's just they've got a lot of guys getting a lot of strikeouts. Kirby Yates has been the best of them. He would be the replacement. But, you know, hand signed or already signed long term,

there's a chance Kirby Yates is the one traded instead of hand. Like, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion. Hands going to get traded like it was with Machado and, you know, some of these other guys with expiring contracts, basically. All right. Other notes, Alex Bregman, homered in the All-Star game, got robbed in the home run derby because he doesn't hit his dongs far enough

and didn't get the bonus time. It's the worst rule in sports. No. I would argue. Clearly not. There are dozens of worse rules. No, there are dozens of more impactful bad rules.

But this one is just awful. It's the home run derby. I enjoy the home run derby, but I enjoy it because it's a fun, light spectacle. Like, outrage over the home run derby just doesn't compute for me. And Josh Hader will not be suspended for his bad tweets as a teenager.

Let's move on to Scott White's top prospects. Well, let's blaze through this, Scott. What we're going to do is do the call upometer, which is a, it's a little different. It's zero through five. Okay? You got that? Zero, no way he's getting called up. We're not doing all 25.

We're just doing the guys that you think have a chance to get called up. I can do, because, you know, usually it's two numbers I'm debating, Yeah. So, yeah, the five. Oh, are you using decimals? No, no decimals. Okay. It's one, zero through five, so technically it's six numbers.

The zero is not a number. You're not a number. Vladimir Guerrera Jr. What are the chances he gets called up? Three. He is been playing again, been playing technically on a rehab assignment, but he's going to start back at AAA. He left off at double A. So that, I think, pushes it into the possible range that he does get

the call. But it'll take him, you know, hitting the ground running basically. Because I think if we get, I think if we get to late August and he's not up yet, there's no reason to open that can of worms. Well, that was the question I was going to have because the September call-ups don't open that can of worms, right? September call-ups do not count for a of those times. So are we counting September call-ups? I'm not. I should know this. What are the chances we see him in 2018 in the majors? If we're counting September call-ups, then I'll say it's five. I think we'll see him in September. Okay. I mean, we didn't with Acuna last year. I think it's, I think it's a comparable situation of that.

Acunae was obviously too good for the miners by this point last year. Okay, I'll say four. They just kept holding out. Elohimenez. That I'm going to call it four. I think there's a better chance of that. Beat writers have basically... He's hurt right now, right? Written like it's a foregone conclusion. Yeah, but it's not a long-term injury. He'll be back. very shortly and I think he'll be out. Fernando Tatis You don't even care of my numbers.

I want to give a number. I'm listening. You said a four for both. Fernando Tatsy's junior a two. I bet against it. I'll say one. 19. Forrest Huitley.

I will go three there. He's also hurt with a strained oblique. But when he first got back from his suspension, he was lighting it up. and I think the Astros might call him up to help out of the bullpen. Best pitching prospect in baseball, right? It's the first one even name, so yeah. Two.

Brendan Rogers, having a little bit of a disappointing season at double A, I guess? Or is he at AAA? He is at AA. And hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. Doesn't have great plate discipline, but his hit tool has overcome that so far. But what are the chances we see Brennan? I mean, 17 homers, 11 steals, 854 OPS.

At least that's what it was when I wrote the column. Yeah, that would play. It's pretty good. It's pretty good. It's not, it's one of the few rocky stops that's not extremely hitter-friendly. And obviously, he's going to an extremely hitter-friendly park in the majors, which is a big part of what's always impacted my rankings with him. But is it obvious he's going there this year? No, it's not.

I'd give it a three. I think it's possible. I'll say two. Michael Kopeck, Chicago White Sox Pitching Pitching Prospect. That, you're skipping all the ones. Yeah, if you're doing that on purpose. Yeah, I'm just doing the ones that you gave a chance to.

There's a lot of guys, we got to move, you know, we got to keep a discussion flowing. So I'm not actually going to give one when we do this exercise. Okay, so Michael Kopeck, I'm going to give a three also. He's been pretty bad, but he's been pretty bad at AAA, and certainly looked at this. spring like he was going to get a chance this year. Now it's in question. I'll say four. Yeah, walking almost six batters per nine, but also striking out more than 12 per nine. Mitch Keller, starting pitching prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Called that one or two. He's been good, and he's up to AAA now, but I don't know why the Pirates. They don't really have much incentive to call him up. Keston Heura? Is that my mind pronouncing that correctly? Sounds right to me. number nine pick in the 2017 draft from the Milwaukee Brewers has a career 924 OPS. He's at AA right now. Chances we see him this season.

Really good hitter. Kind of a Scooter Jeanette profile, what Scooter Jeanette has become, obviously, not what we thought he was years ago. I think it's probably like a three if the Brewers trade for Brian Dozier, let's say it drops two at one. They really need help in the middle infield.

Yeah. Like Tyler Saladino has played well, and I liked Tyler Saladino as a sleeper last year, but he's, that's not the answer at either middle infield position spot. Or the Brewers could trade for Scooter Jeanette himself. Bring it back. I don't think they will. Say we're sorry. I don't think the Reds are going to trade him.

You don't think so? I don't think so. I think they might get Whitmerryfield. Sure. Possible, yeah. It's a good Milwaukee Brewer's player. Well, and there's that Brewer's Royal. trading connection.

They've been a lot of the best. The famed Brewer's Royal's Trading Connection. Luis Erius. That one looks pretty likely. I'll call that a four. I'm going to say a five. You bet Eurias he's coming up. And Austin Riley, another team who,

not an obvious need at third base, but I don't know if Y'allon Camargo is the long-term answer, and Austin Riley has really come on this year as a prospect. He has. He's missed time recently with a sprint. brain knee. I think that slowed the momentum. And I think Johann Camargo's done well enough that it's not clear this version of Riley would be an upgrade. He could, you know, he's only 21. He could

use a little more time there. So I'll call it a three. The Braves have also been mentioned in the Machado talks, though. I don't think that was ever realistic. Mike Mustakis, you keep hearing that name. It's possible they stick with Camargo. It's possible they bring in someone else from the outside. I think Riley's chances are dropping by the week as opposed to rising. So the best minor leaguers to stash, I think Elohimenez is probably at the top of that list? I'd still go Vladimir Guerrero over him, even though he's, I gave Aloi Jimenez a higher. I put him higher on the call-upometer, just because, I mean, if Guerrero gets called up, like,

that's obviously the guy you want. It's just, it's him and everybody else among prospects right now. All right, and let's move on to emails to close out the show. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Morgan has a question, Dear Fred, Bam Bam, and Barney. He's a 12-te-head categories league with OPS, quality starts, and strikeouts. He has a conundrum. He's looking to fortify his pitching and all of these guys on waivers.

How would you rank them? Vince Velasquez, Carlos Rodon, Stephen Matt, Zach Wheeler, and Luke Weaver. again. Velasquez, Rodon, Matt, Wheeler, Weaver. I go Velasquez, Weaver, Wheeler, Rodon, and Matt's. Okay. Matt's last. It sounds like he would go Rodon first. Yeah, I think I would go Rodon, Velasquez, Weaver, Wheeler, Mats.

Okay. A.L. only 18 league. Guy in his league lost Machado yesterday and freaked out trying to replace. him. Grade the trade. He gives back, Devers, Matt Olson, and Randall Gritchick gets Aaron Judge. Man, this is an A-plus-plus

in like a normal kind of league. In an A-L-only league that does change the math a little bit. Eight teams, I think, makes it closer to just a regular type of league, so I will still give you a B on this trade. It's good. Yeah, let's take a B-plus,

so we're in the same. Not as great as it sounds. All right, since we, since Adam's not here, but he is celebrating a joyous life occasion, we do have to get some Greg Bird talk on the podcast. Ryan from Boston, a Yankee fan in Red Sox territory. Objectively, I think Chris and Heath would be excited about Greg Bird if his name wasn't Greg Bird. Look at the data. 40% hard contact rate, 47% fly ball rate, 55% pull rate.

He's hitting the ball hard, he's hitting the ball in the air, to where Yankee Stadium, short porch should help him. I understand he hasn't broken out, but why isn't this someone I should be excited about stashing? Seems like he'd easily get hot and hit 15 homers in the second half. He absolutely could get hot and hit 15 homers in the second half. I don't think there's anybody here who questions that. I think the crux of the discussion has been that we give this guy, some of us,

give this guy credit for something he's never really done, or he's only done for a month at a time. And there are so many first baseman out there who can do what he, even the best version of him projects to do, that it, I don't know, I like it. He needs to be a lot better than what we've seen for me to get excited by him. There are probably two, three dozen hitters who I could see, like exploding with the 20s.

Homer's second half out of left view, you know? And he's among them. But yeah, it's, it's kind of unfair, it's kind of unfair, frankly, to him to always single him out as the guy, because he hasn't done it. And he's, there's obviously been a lot of excuses that could be made, but until he does it, that's not who he is. Explanations. Explanations.

Not excuses. Oh, okay. Ryan has a point here. We bash on Greg Byrd excessively because of Adam Azer. It's a bit. Yes. He does have that potential in the second half. He also has the potential to be terrible.

He's a fine guy to have in your corner infield spot in a roto league. All right, another one from Matt. Another Yankees question for Adam. Aaron Boone was on a podcast with Cece and Ryan Rucho. Today, when the conversation turned to Justice Sheffield, starting pitching prospect, Moon said he's putting himself in the conversation to be a part of the mix really soon, given how he's pitched at AAA, where he has a 253 ERA and 57 innings. How snatchable is Justice Sheffield? He has a really high walk rate. Yeah, 4.0 for the season 3.8 per

9 in AAA, and the strikeout rate has gone down quite a bit since getting to AAA. He didn't quite correct my midseason top 25. He was right on the fringe there. But The only reason he would have is because of proximity. Because, yeah, I mean, it definitely seems like he could come up and be that guy. And maybe he'd overcome those control issues right away. Maybe he never does. Or maybe he's Blake Snell and takes a year and a half to do it. But regardless, I don't think that's going to be somebody who's must add the moment he gets called up.

And he doesn't profile to be an ace. I mean, he has a lot of strikeout potential. he throws very hard. But he's not someone who throughout his career as a prospect. It's not, you know, a Michael Copac type of prospect. It's not a, you know, even a Lucas Gialito type of prospect. And obviously, those are, Lucas Gialito is a very good example of why those prospect rankings might not matter all that much when it comes to pitching.

There's no such thing as a pitching prospect. But, I mean, they get hitters wrong all the time, too. But he's not the kind of guy that every scout looks at. looks at in season 8s. Yeah, he's not Forrest Whitley. I will say he's historically shown up higher on the prospect list than his numbers would suggest he should be. But so, I mean, they do like him a lot.

He reminds me of Billy Wagner. And Billy Wagner, you know, a short stature has a lot to do with that. Billy Wagner obviously wound up being a closer instead of a starter that wasn't always obvious when he was coming up through the Astros system. I think if Sheffield doesn't overcome these control issues, he's going to have real issues pitching deep into games and could meet a similar fate as a reliever instead of a starter. And there's no guarantee, obviously, that it'd be a closer.

It just depends on what scenario he winds up in. So I don't love him for dynasty purposes, but there's definitely upside there. All right. Two more emails. Bob, Ray, and Cedric, which it's some kind of super esoteric Seinfeld reference about two guys who beat up Kramer. I don't know. In a 12 team head-to-head points leagues, if Cespitas comes off to DL in the next few days,

he will have Buster, will have an open DL spot on his roster. Which starting pitcher would you want a stash of this group? Marco Estrada, Irvin Santana, Ian Kennedy, Jake Junis, or Drew Pomerams? I don't think Jake Junis will be an option. Okay. I expect he's going to come off the disabled list about the same time that Cestepidus does. It sounds like Pomerans. Pomerans may as well.

I mean, it has to be Stantiana. Yeah. Rehabilitation from this finger injury, finger surgery, I think it was, hasn't gone well. Last couple of starts have been a lot better. Okay. So hopefully he's trending the right way. And he might be back within the next week.

Yep. And Blake, based on Heath's outlook for D. Gordon in the second half, he traded Carlos Rodon and Ronald Kuna in a Roto League for D. Gordon. Grade the trade. I'll give it a B-plus. Acuna and who else for D. Gordon? Carlos Rodon.

Well, Heath, president of the Carlos Rodon fan club, is giving it a B-plus. Then I have to give it at least that, right? I'll give it a B-plus also. Okay. That's it. That's today's podcast.

We'll be back tomorrow with one game of worth of baseball to talk about. So that'll be exciting. We'll be previewing Week 17.5? It's 18.25, I think. Okay, okay, 18.25. Well, let's start Carlos Rodon. Maybe it's 16.75. Start Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks tonight.

Yeah, starting both. Yep. All right, we'll be back tomorrow with more fantasy baseball. Congratulations, Adam. We'll see you guys later.