Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/19: Most Added, Week 19 Help (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 19, 2019

Favorite two-start pitchers for Week 19 and another Matt Boyd discussion after another bad Matt Boyd start. Then we give our take on advanced stats and how predictive they are ... News and notes, yesterday's standout hitters and some fringy SPs and then a look at the aces who pitched yesterday. Leave Trevor Bauer alone! Is Noah Syndergaard back? Is Madison Bumgarner back? Also we talk about some SPs who have been good but are hard to buy like Zach Davies ... Most Added including Danny Santana and a reliever you need to know about, plus the Dropometer and a longer look at two-start pitchers ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mazar and parra projecto to scare you. Machado or bottom or no. All right, everybody. Relax. Kick up your feet. Put your Tiva sandals on. Get yourself on Koko Beach. For this episode of fantasy baseball today, Scott White and Adam Azer here.

What's up, Scott? Oh, I'm good. I'm good. I'm good. I didn't ask you that. Tiva sandals. Yeah. I'm feeling good.

Tiva's are really a fashion, tragedy. I'm looking at them right now. I think I had them. No, I don't think I did. I hope nobody who works at Tiva is listening to this right now. So we've got our favorite two-star pitchers for next week. Not very good. Not very good. The list of available guys are scary. Some tough, tough matchups in there. And we've got everything from yesterday. A lot of Aces on the map. I mean, Chris Sale, Arenola, Cindergarde, Bumgarner, whether they're Aces now or before, whether they're just their team's aces. Bauer, Strasbourg, Domingo, Armand.

Everybody on the mound last night, it was crazy, and some really good pitching performances. The droppometer, we got the dropleter and the most added list, just to give you a little contrast. Let's start with our favorite two-star pitchers for next week, Scott. Is there anyone owned in less than 70? Right? Nobody.

70%. Yeah, I think there's going to be a decent number of two-star pitchers overall, but if you're putting the cutoff is 70%, even if you're putting at 80%, not something you're going to get excited about. I think your boy Danny Duffy might be my favorite. He has a matchup versus Cleveland the second time. Is that a good matchup though?

They're winning a ton of games. He's facing Trevor Bauer. Yeah. And then at Atlanta the first time. But, I mean, it's probably the best you're going to do among if you're playing the Waver Wire, which probably means you shouldn't play the Waver Wire. You probably have good enough pitchers to fill out your pitching staff. I think Trevor Richards, Scott, it could be okay.

Okay, because that's like all he is is okay. At Chicago and home against Arizona, at the White Sox. He hasn't had a good start in over a month. That's true. Unless you count five and two, third. I guess he had one. Five and two-thirds are to run eight strikeouts, four walks, three BBs. That was June 19.

A month ago, he had a good start. What is this BBs thing? Why do you keep saying BBs instead of walks? I don't know. People know what I mean. Yeah, but it's so weird. It's like it started last week. I've been doing the show with you for 11 years.

I don't know. I guess I think it sounds cool. It sounds like baseball lingo. Look at those BBs. It's just one thing. That's one thing that there's so much baseball lingo, you know, but B.Bs, I just don't think, is really caught on. I think we should keep it that way. All right, so two-star pitches.

Look, maybe Chris Archer is available. He's 82% owned. He's got the Cardinals and at the Mets. That one's not bad. Sabathia's been pitching well, but at Minnesota, at Boston, no way. Daniel Ponce de Leon at Pittsburgh, home against Houston, no. What about Chase Anderson against the Reds and Cubs? I know yeah yeah I agree okay well good luck to you all you there are it seemed to be a lot of games

next week so you probably have two-star pitchers that are better I mean maybe Cic Sabathia just because he's been pitching so well lately like the matchups aren't good twins and red socks but you know he's shut down the red so the rays in three of his past four starts so I don't know the rain the raise are no twins and red socks and I'll tell you uh I will I'm so excited for next week for Domingo Raman. Domingo Raman has those same matchups at Minnesota and at Boston. Although, he probably doesn't. Because sometimes double-headers throw off our matchups.

I don't know if he's going to make two starts or just one. But Domingo Raman has had basically the easiest schedule of all time. I think he's going to make two. Next week he's going to have two tough matchups. We'll see how he comes out of it. Maybe we'll learn a little bit more about him after next. week. Okay, here's a category. Is he really a by-low? And it's all about Matt Boyd. Matt Boyd was another one of those aces who pitched last night. And yeah, six innings,

no walks, eight strikeouts, five earn runs, two home runs. That's Matt Boyd for you lately. His last eight starts now. It's just, it's 14 home runs. It's an ERA over six. One win. And now, like, it's just can he solve this home run problem? Everything else is fine. But can we trust Matt Boyd now, who gets one start against Philadelphia next week? Do you still think he's a buy-low? One of the things I've changed in my approach to pitchers

in this environment of 2019, with all of the home runs being hit, is that while we have historically viewed the surrendering home run, of home runs as a skill for pitchers. And I'm not saying it's not at all, but it's less that now than an occupational hazard. Like every pitcher is susceptible to stretches like this where they just get pummeled by home runs. And some of it was expected.

Boyd was overperforming in that way early in the year, but it's been, like, it's been regression and beyond here of late. And I made you don't have to look beyond like the ex-fip and the Sierra. to see it. X-FIP is 336, Sierra's 321. He heading into yesterday's game, he was fifth in the majors and strikeout to walk ratio. He was top 12 in both of those categories individually, strikeout rate, walk rate. And, I mean, he obviously performed well in that regard, too. So, yeah, I think he's even more of a by-low today coming off a five-run start than he was before. So my, when you, you know, when you do this job, you have to learn from your mistake.

So follow along here. My concern about Matt Boyd has been a concern I've had about other pitchers that are breaking ball dependent and don't really necessarily have a good fastball or a lot of velocity. And what I just noticed about Boyd is that his velocity is actually up. So he's averaging like 93 miles per hour on his fastball. Still, you know, it's his slider that's going to be his bread and butter. But I've had these same concerns with Patrick Corp. last year who had a little bit of a home run spell and Clayton Kershaw this year. And I thought, you know, these guys, like their breaking pitches are really good, but their fastballs aren't good enough.

They're going to give up a lot of home runs. I was wrong about both of them. So, unfortunately for boys, this is a longer streak and he has no track record. His track record's bad. Yeah. But I don't want to, like, I want to learn from my mistakes on that and think this is definitely the right time to be buying low on that. Boy, would you still trade Chris Paddock for Boyd? Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, just look at that 12K per nine. I know. How many starting pitchers do that? 1.8B.4B per 9. How many starting pitchers do that? They're both. It's so weird. Yeah, no, I know, I know.

But, God, but 21 home runs in 120 innings now. And 14 in his last eight starts. Okay. I'm not doing it on purpose. It's so funny. It's so funny. I don't know what happened. All, listen, we got big golf tournament this week.

Make sure you're listening to the first cut podcast. And we got CBS Sports HQ this week. We're on there talking fantasy baseball from 3 to 6 p.m. Eastern. It's the only way to watch it is watching it live. 3 to 6 on CBS Sports HQ. Download the CBS Sports app and start streaming HQ. You can watch it right in your living room on your Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire, smart TV, whatever it is.

Download the CBS Sports app and watch HQ 24-7 streaming sports coverage. You know what I think it is, actually? You know what I think it is? While I keep doing it? I've changed the way I write it most of the time. Usually I go with K-slash-9-B-B-B-Sash-9 now, when before I was spelling it out, walks per-9, strikeouts per 9.

Because I said K-per-9, too. Yeah, but that's normal. Like, a lot of people say K-per-9. Like, I recalibrated my brain because I wanted to start writing it differently, and now I'm saying it differently, too. It's weird. I've got to work on a Twitter poll here about this.

Let's see the best way to phrase it. I'm going to try to phrase it while I throw this quote out at you. I was reading this in the AP recap of the Oakland game. It was about Mike Fires. This is what derailed Mike Fires in, I think, the seventh inning. Fires threw only 89 pitches, but the heat factored into manager Bob Melvin's decision to remove him. Fires also had the misfortune of glancing at the scoreboard and seeing Kyle Gibson's pitch count of 106, mistakenly believing it was his pitch count.

Quote, mentally it crushed me, Fires said. What? Can you believe that? That's weird. He saw the wrong pitch count. He thought he was up to 106 pitches. He was only at 89. He saw Kyle Gibson's pitch count.

And mentally, that crushed him. I can't believe that, Mike Fires. I can't believe that. I don't even know what he means. But was he disappointed because he knew he was going to have to be removed soon? Or was he like, oh, my. my goodness, I've already thrown 106 pitches get me out of here.

Yeah. Exactly. I don't know. But that's a weird. That's weird. Yeah, I know. Everything about Mike fires is weird, so. He's in our category of pitchers who we don't think are good,

but are playing well. All right, I want to read an email here. It's an interesting one. It's from Paul. Email of the day. It says, Dear Fuchs, Goron, Noho, Hank, and Gene. So this is the show...

I have no idea. I had to look it up, but then I was like, oh, yeah, I've seen it. This is the show Barry on Showtime. Okay. Which, uh, I thought season one was good. Not great, but good. Okay. Here's the email from Paul.

Rest assured, this is not Goose Gossage or some other old man shouting at the clouds about analytics. There is undoubtedly a place for them in the modern game, and they often provide valuable insight. However, sometimes the slobbery love affair with analytics, goes a little too far. Case in point, Scott's argument that the 361 X-FIP of Hermann Marquez is more important than his bloated 521 ERA. I'm sure every fantasy owner with X-FIP as a category is overjoyed by this, but all of the leagues I've ever been affiliated with count ERA instead. Sometimes analysts need to look up from their keyboards once in a while. I notice there are actual fields with actual players playing actual games and that a 521

ERA is likely going to torture chances of winning that category for the week. Sometimes what actually happens is more important than what should be happening or likely to happen going forward. And please stop claiming that a five-inning start giving up only three or four runs is a good start. An ERA of 540 or 720 sucks. Love the show. Thanks for letting me then. Okay. Well, a couple things here from Paul.

I feel like we're discussing different things. But then he addressed it later in the email. So I don't know. I was kind of confused by his point. But no, 521 ERA for the season is not good. It's been mostly recent, but Hermann Marquez is kind of torched his season here recently. The reason we emphasize X-FIPP is because what has happened isn't nearly as important as what's going to happen. From our perspective, right?

Right. Like if we're looking at this in a historic way, you know, if the season into today, Herman Marquez has those numbers, we're looking back on it historically. Okay, Hermann Marquez didn't have a good season. But that's not how we're looking at it. We're looking at what can Hermann Marquez do for you going forward. And I think Exfip is clearly more valuable in that regard. The other point he brought up.

Is it, though? Because if XFIP were so valuable that, like, we weren't talking about Sierra five years ago. Because we're talking about other things that feed into it. Like, it's made for a shortcut. And I, you know, for a long time, I didn't give it enough credence. I took the hard route of, okay, looking at all these individual contributions he's making. When it all gets summed up so nicely in Exfip, and I've, you know, I've seen it play out that way often enough that I'm fully on board with it.

I mean, have you ever really heard me cite Exfip ever on this podcast before this year? No. Do you think it's been better for you? Yeah, definitely. Okay. Definitely. See, the thing is, like, we want to find predictive stats. I get it.

I feel like ERA is a predictive stat in a sense. I mean, the way a guy is pitching right now should be somewhat of an indicator of how he's going to pitch going forward. It's, it's... Right? No, it's like... All right, how am I going to explain this? It used to be the best we have, but it's not very good because what goes to... into providing a pitcher with that ERA is more important than the ERA itself.

Well, yeah, yeah. But I'm not convinced that X-FIP or Sierra really account for everything that we need. I don't think it's, I mean, there's no way it could, right? I mean, it's just, there's too much that goes into it. If we could sit around and watch every baseball game, we'd have a much better idea. But we can't. So we have to take shortcuts, then we use advanced stats. So I'm sort of in these, in Paul.

is camp. I'm getting a little tired of all the advanced stats. However, I will say this, when I'm not on the show, or even when I am, but mostly when I'm not on the show and I'm listening to analysis and they're talking about a pitcher, I might roll my eyes at it, but I do want to know what his ex-fip is. I do want to know what his Sierra is. Because like even I, who I'm not huge on advanced stats, even I can acknowledge that they are important. I just don't want to be completely beholden to them. And I've gone back and, you know, I've looked at like years where guys have had a better ERA than FIP by like a lot or a worse. It doesn't tell me anything about the next year.

Like, you know, there's not a consistent track record, in my opinion, of pitchers like performing in 2015 what their X-FIP was in 2014. I just, I think it's kind of crap a little bit. It's important. I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth. Well, what about Trevor Williams this year? Well, I think Trevor Williams was really good before he went on the IL. So how do we know he's not just still rusty or still hurt or something like that?

Like he was keeping it up. He was blowing that theory out of the water. I mean, what about... They're always going to be what about us. What about the other end of the spectrum and... They're always going to be the whatabouts, right? I mean, there's always going to be exceptions. It's really hard.

You're never going to find a perfect system. Let's just establish that right now. I feel like it's rare to see more than a half a run day. difference between ERA and X-FIP over a full season. And I'm not nearly as research to, I'm sure other people who are even more, more, I can't think the word, more in tune with X-FIP than me could point to better examples, better, give a better, broader feel for the whole thing. but like it's it's rare to see more than half a run's difference in my experience between ex-fip and phip and usually when you see that it's like it makes perfect sense yeah that guy i i can tell from his other numbers he wasn't nearly as good as is the eRA suggested so no i think it's i think it's a very good shortcut stat and um i think it's much more predictive than era much more predictive i think the problem is for paul

for everyone. I'm sorry to use this cliche. You can't predict sports. I mean, we're going to be wrong no matter what we use a lot of times. We're going to be right a lot of times. A lot of times what happens is there's a skill change. Yeah.

And okay, that'll happen sometimes. And sometimes, like I made the David Dahl. I used the David Dahl example earlier. Like there was enough evidence in his tracker to suggest, okay, yeah, the BABIP is crazy high. But there's a good chance he'll start hitting more home runs. there's a good chance to start striking out less, and that'll help account for when the Babbitt inevitably falls.

And so sometimes you can see those skill changes coming, but sometimes you can't. And, you know, it's just you have to, you have to, you can't just ignore the evidence you're seeing. I mean, you have to follow through with that. And I think what I try to do on this show is, you know, I try to balance it out a little bit because Scott, Chris and Heath, especially Kreef, are more advanced stats inclined.

I will try to give a little more context with like, I think I'm more inclined to look at like, oh, he's had easy matchups lately, or he's not pitching, he's been terrible third time through the order. And we try to put it all together to paint a big picture and give you as much information as possible, and hopefully that helps. But there's certainly going to be people that come out on different sides of the argument about how good these advanced stats are. And I think another hesitation I have, Scott, is that the advanced stats,

they continue to grow a little bit, get a little bit better. You know, we talk about advanced stats this year that we weren't talking about two or three years ago. Stat cast has gotten a lot better. So I think we're still at the early stages of all these advanced stats, which gives me a little bit of pause. But, you know, they are helpful. They are helpful. And the only thing I know for sure is that Scott is weird,

because here's the Twitter poll so far. It's not looking good for you. Is it acceptable to say BB instead of walks? A, yes, it's fine, or B, know you're weird, and 80% say, no, you're weird. I didn't say specifically, Scott, but we all know who I'm talking about. I'm right. I guess I'm weird. You're probably right.

I should stop doing that because it feels weird now that you pointed it out. All right, good. Mission Accomplice. Today's sponsor is ZipRecruiter. If you are looking to hire somebody, get on ZipRecruiter.com slash strike and try it for free. ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. It is also a good website if you are looking for a job. ZipRecruiter.com slash strike, though,

if you want to try it for free, and you'll hear more about ZipRecruiter right now, and then we'll come back and talk a lot more fantasy baseball here on FBT. News and notes, hope you didn't start Max Scherzer this week. Let's see how started Max Scherzer is. Scott, can you look that up? What's his start percentage this week? He is not looking great to start on Sunday, Max Scherzer. Nick Senzel is day-to-day with a hamstring injury, but likely to avoid the IL.

Mike Trout returned in DH and Albert Pooholz left with a hamstring injury. Brendan, a lot of people are going with the misdemeanor. Mr. Mackey pronunciation. Brendan M.K. He's going to start tonight against the White Sox. Okay. It's not the first person named McKay ever, but that's cool. Yeah.

M.K., do you have... It's not an uncommon name, right? No, no, it's not. You have any star percentage here for Scherzer? How you doing with that? Yeah, almost there. Really? He was started in 66.

Six percent of leagues this week. It's a tough one. Kevin Gosman's going to start Sunday. Any interest? Not in terms of actually using him in fantasy, though his last rehab started. Triple A was dominant. Okay. Yeah, Kevin Gosman.

We got to see it first. Philadelphia is looking into Zach Rankie, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia. Matt Chapman expects the play today. Ryan Barucky. We're up all night to Baruchie. We'll start this weekend. I believe for the Blue Jays. He's 5% owned. Last year, Baraki had a 3807

ERA, very low strikeout rate. 132 whip. He's a big groundball pitcher. I wonder what his ex-fip was. Probably not very good. San Diego's starting pitcher Garrett Richards. Yes, Garrett Richards is on San Diego. I did not know that or remember that until today. But he made a rehab start as he looks to return

from Tommy John surgery. And then how about this? Rafael Devers has 28 RBIs against the Blue Jays this year. That is the most for any player against a single opponent since Gary Sheffield had 28 RBIs against the Orioles in 2015. Thank you, Associated Press. So if they have another game against the Blue Jays this year, Rafael Devers will have a chance to break that mark. Corey Seeger and A.J. Pollock both sat for the second time in seven games since coming off the IL.

Do you think that's just caution or something that we'll see going forward with Pollock and Seeger sitting a little bit more than we'd like? I think it's a surplus of options there, which, I mean, I don't know. that I would have Enrique Hernandez in the mix as often as Dave Roberts has, but Enrique Hernandez homered twice yesterday, so maybe Dave Roberts is a genius. And it was a righty on the mound that they were facing him. Even a left, he was Nola. And Yadir Molina is a long way from coming back. He won't have his thumb re-evaluated at least for another three weeks.

Some Homer happy hitters. George Springer is homered four times in his last four games. Paul DeYoung, he's in this section because he finally homered. His first home run since June 16th, and he was batting six, which is his lowest spot in the order this season. Jerkson ProFar homered again. Hashtag light the fire. Did it light a fire under him when they started benching him for Barreto?

We'll keep an eye on it. Eduardo Escobar almost homered again, but he was robbed of a home run by Lorenzo Kane. And Stephen Strasbourg homered. He homered and singled in the same inning. Stephen Strasberg. First pitcher to Homer and get another base hit in the same inning since Edwin Jackson in 2010. I am bringing the stats today.

Scott. Yeah. Yeah, those are some good stats. Okay, let's talk about yesterday a little bit more. These hitters, I couldn't fit them into another category. So here's these hitters. Scott Austin Meadows has homered three times in his last four games. He has a nine-game hitting streak, but only 10 hits in those nine games.

A good July, a terrible stretch before that. But Austin Meadows, is he back? I'm going to be reluctant to rate him as high as I had him before. He seems, he's starting to develop a pattern of streakiness here, I feel like. Even looking at last year when he first came up with the pirates, remember how hot he was? And then he cooled off again, and then he went to the raise and then spent time in the minors. I think he got called up at the end of the year right and did well. Yeah, I didn't do that well.

But anyway, yeah, this is familiar the way things are playing out for Meadows. See, we look at a lot of advanced stats. I mentioned this the other day with Scott. Scott likes Ex-Woba, which encompasses a lot of it. But hard hit rate and fly ball rate are good. 45.8% hard contact rate, 42.5% flyball rate, a 25.2% line drive rate. Those three things tell me he's a good hitter. And his numbers this season are really good.

But it's just how is he going to go about accumulating those stats? Is it going to be really streaky? It looks like that's going to be the case for Meadows. Well, it's also, is he a top 25, top 30 outfielder or a top 10, top 15 outfielder? Because early on he was looking like 10, 15. I don't think he's that. Well, to be honest with you, I wouldn't be surprised if he's a top, let's say, 15, 20 outfielder, but the way he goes about it makes you pull your hair out, you know?

Like, that's the way Justin Upton used to be. That's the way I think like Jay Bruce used to be. Some guys are like that. We shall see. Mitch Garver, he's now started five of the last seven games. Mitch Garber has an OPS over 1,000. He has four home runs in his last seven games. Yeah, he has also started for the twins five of seven.

I just said that. Oh, you did? Sorry. That's all right. I was looking up Austin Meadows and how many points he has, because it's not nearly what you think it is. Yeah, so here's the thing about Mitch Garver. He has the most fantasy points per game at catcher by a long shot.

He is well ahead of Gary Sanchez. I just wish you played more regularly because, I mean, Jason Castro is having a pretty good year, too. I understand why the twins are keeping him in the mix. But, you know, it's a little frustrating because I think Garber could be a fantasy stud if he played more often. Okay, that was these hitters. Here's these pitchers. Didn't quite fit them into some regular categories. So let's talk about Ross Stripling and Denelson Lamett.

Stripling, five innings, two earn runs, five strikeouts. De Nelson Lemette, four innings, one earn run, five strikeouts at Miami. Has not thrown more than 85 pitches yet. They're 79% owned and 62% owned, respectively. Stripling and Denelson Lemette, how do you feel about them and their ownerships? I feel like both are pretty appropriate. I mean, Lament, there's some reason for enthusiasm there, and yet he hasn't really delivered a worthwhile start yet.

I mean, I guess Stripling hasn't either, but I like the way the innings are ticking up for him, two straight with five, probably going to see him go six occasionally soon, and he should have a rotation spot for the foreseeable future. with Rich Hill working his way back from a longer-term injury? I mean, I'm pretty interested in Ross Stripling. I think I might say he's a by-low because, yeah, he hasn't pitched more than five innings in these starts, but he's still striking out a lot of batter.

I mean, this is two years in a row where he's just showing Ross Tripling is a good pitcher as a starter or as a reliever. He's got more than a strikeout per inning. He has good ERA and whip. And I actually think, like, if you're in a row, Lido League, and you pair him with Julio Arreus, you know. Now, I thought they'd be piggybacking more often, but it didn't happen this week. Julio Rius, by the way, if you listened to the very end of yesterday's show,

I mentioned there was a reliever who had 22 and two-thirds consecutive scoreless innings, and he's the guy. But I was hoping they'd piggyback us if you started both of them, say, in a Roto League or something, you have a pretty good chance to get a win, and just good overall numbers. And yeah, Lomet, I don't know that he's a... He's going to pitch more than five innings very often, but strikeouts are going to be there. 19Ks and 14 innings.

Okay, more pitchers. Rotation part one, the studs. Chris Sale. Scott and I love Chris Sale. Okay, so we're not going to get into it. We just think he's great, and his ZRA is too high. He's 172 strikeouts, my goodness. Trevor Bauer.

Yeah, Trevor Bauer really angered me when I saw him give up a two-run Homer in the third inning. and then he, you know, pitched like four scoreless endings after that. He's, look, you can bitch all you want about Trevor Bauer. I've done plenty of it. He's the number eight pitcher in points, number 12 in Roto. Yep. There you go. I mean, that's, there you go.

Like, I just get, like, he isn't as good as last year. That's fine, but I've heard from more than one person. It looks like Trevor Bauer's reverted to who he was before last year. And that's not true at all. He was not very good before last year. Yeah. But he was great second half of 2017. That's fair.

But the overall numbers weren't great for that year, and he didn't have a good year ever before that. He's definitely having a good year here. By the N-Calibur, no, but Ace-like, yeah. To say that he's reverted to what he was before the second half of 2017 is ridiculous. But, I mean, here's the thing. If he gets traded, very possible. I think it's a bad thing because I don't know how many managers are going to let Trevor Bauer throw 120 pitches,

170. His pitch count the last five starts, 127, 107, 114, 117, 117, 117, 117, 120. And as someone who's been following his starts very, very closely, he needs that. Because he seems to be getting better as the game gets later. And he racks up those strikeouts, he racks up those innings. And, you know, it's saving him, I think. Yeah, it's probably a move point, Adam. I don't see him getting traded.

You don't think so? Things could change, I guess, in 12 days, but the Indians lead the wild card race. They're four games behind the twins. You know, I suppose there's still an argument to be made. They trade him for a stud bat that they think can help them win now, and maybe a couple future assets, too, and just, you know, kind of have their cake and eat it too that way.

but I think it's very unlikely. His best innings in terms of VRA are the sixth and the seventh. And then the eighth inning, he's thrown three and two-thirds scoreless. So he's a guy who gets better, at least this year as the game goes on. What do you think of Noah Cindergarde? The good Noah Cindergarde and then the kind of bad Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, and even Steven Strasbourg didn't have a great start. But Morton's a top five pitcher, Strasberg's a top seven pitcher.

But let's start with Cinderguard. It's two really good starts in a row. Seven innings, I think combined three run runs. They have been at Miami and at San Francisco. Granted, both those teams are playing better, particularly the Giants. You know, what do you think? What do you think about Cindergarde? I think he's back.

I think we figured out what the missing ingredient was all year, and it was his slider. He said in his previous start, which was great, that the slider is the best it was. it's been all year. I think the season high for swinging strikes on the slider was four and in that start it was seven and this start it was nine.

So, slider's back. I think Thor's back. Okay, cool. Anything to say on Morton, Nola or Strasbourg? Anything that concerns you from yesterday's outings? Well, Nola,

one thing that concerns me for him is, you know, he's had this turnaround. The BBs are up. The BBs. Yes. Remember Butterfinger Bebees? Oh, gosh.

Yes. Bart Simpson was the spokesperson. That's what I'm thinking of now. Small, terrible candies. But yeah, no. Yeah, there have been, there's a stretch of three walks or more here for Nola. And that seems out of character. But overall, I think he's on the right track.

I'm not that worried about it. Nola, okay. And, yeah, Morton just had a bad inning. And kind of got maybe a little unlucky in that. Nah, I wouldn't say that, but bad inning for Morton. Okay, when we come back, Domingo Raman, Kyle Gibson, Madison Bumgarner, Yanni Chorinos, Caleb Smith. They're all owned in a bunch of leagues. They're basically universally owned.

Should they be? What are we seeing from these guys? And we got the dropometer in the most added list, some two-start pitcher advice, and hopefully your emails will be right back on fantasy baseball today. More aces from yesterday. Domingo Raman, so, yeah, in my opinion, he's had two times. of opponents this season. He had a good start at the twins or against the twins,

and then he got roughed up by the Red Sox, and that was in his three-start stretch when Armand was pitching with a hip injury. Those two teams and the Angels, who are 11th in runs per game, are the only three teams that Domingo Roamont has faced all year that are currently in the top half of baseball in runs per game. It has just been Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Indians, Mets,

giants, I think. So, yeah, are you as interested as I am in his starts next week at the Twins and Red Sox? Yeah, I mean, I'm interested to see how it plays out. Sure, I would absolutely start him. But with some trepidation. Oh, yeah, no, you're starting Armand. I mean, I think he's pretty good. He gave up two home runs to the first batters he face.

He gave him home run to each of the first two batters he faced yesterday. And then he ended up going six innings, gave up two runs on four hits, turn it around. All right, Scott, Kyle Gibson, Madison, Bumgarner, Yanni Chorinos, Caleb Smith. How many of them are must starts? Gibson, Bumgarner, Chorinos, and Caleb Smith? I think zero are must starts across the board, but it's rare that I'm sitting any of them, including Gibson, who had kind of a weird month leading up to this start where I think he worked on short rest one day. he was used in relief of an extra inning game.

Like, there were a few weird outings there with low inning number of innings. So we kind of forgot how good it could be when he's just making a start. And, you know, he misses a lot of bats with his slider. You can go deep into games. Good offense backing him. Nine and four record. I think he's pretty hard to sit most of the time. But Bumgarner, like this is what I hoped to see from Bumgarner.

like this is what I hoped to see from Bum Garner Bumgarner is really an interesting an interesting case to me because obviously you have the the trade possibility hanging over him I think a trade likelihood seeing he's a free agent in the offseason but his numbers are great in San Francisco

so what is leaving that part going to do for him I think it's going to be a great thing for him because obviously you're going to get more wind potential elsewhere. And I just think he's trending the right direction in terms of skills. His velocity is back up this year to where it was before the motor bike accident, or dirt bike accident, whatever it was. And the swinging strikes have been rising over the course of this season.

I think it's really interesting. I think maybe he's having a minor resurgence here. Yeah, Bumgarner has a strikeout per inning Only 26 walks in 125 and 2 thirds So that kind of control is going to obviously help wherever he ends up His ERA is a lot better at home 330 versus 410 His best stretch has been recently

The issue here is that Two of his last eight starts have been on the road So he's just had a ton of home games lately Is that why he's pitching better? I don't know Yeah, we'll see, you're right, he is an interesting case He is an interesting case. All right.

Thank you for your thoughts on those guys. You're welcome. Yeah. That's what I'm here to do. Guys that have been good, but we're not really sure if they're good. Do you think these guys are good? That's the question. Mike Fires.

Wade Miley. Zach Davies. Merrill Kelly, Dakota Hudson. By the way, I think Merrill Kelly and Dakota Hudson are like the same person. Like they... No. They feel like Dakota Hudson is a lot more. of a groundball pitcher than Kelly, right?

Yeah, they're pretty different. Come on. I mean, their ERAs are similar. Kelly's an elite control guy, it's looking like, and Hudson is far from it. Hudson's whip. Hudson's whip is 151. Yeah. And I mean, that's because he is arguably the most extreme groundball pitcher in baseball,

if I recall. Yes. But it's hard to get anything more than ERA out of him. But he does have nine wins. Yeah, he's going to give up a lot of hits by nature of the kind of pitcher he is. And it's going to be disproportionate, the ERA and WIP. There aren't as many pitchers like this around the majors today, so we're not as used to seeing it.

I think he's useful, but more in a points of league context because that whip is going to destroy you. All right, so who's good? Fires, Miley, Davies, Kelly, Hudson. I think Miley and Kelly are good enough to roster and start whenever they have favorable matchups to start weeks. the others That would be Kelly next week, Baltimore

Yes Yes the others I am I'm not I mean again Dakota Hudson can be useful in a points league But that's as far as I'd go with that And fires and Davies I just think I mean fires especially

I think fires is the worst of these pitchers Yeah it's amazing how How fortunate he seems to be this year Mike fires He's at Houston and home against the Rangers next week. He should get crushed twice, but, you know. Hasn't been happening.

Has not been happening. But this is going to turn. It always turns at him. Yeah. Always catches up to the guy. It may not happen this year. It'll probably happen this year. But if it doesn't, it'll happen next year.

Wade Miley, I was more excited about because the strikeouts had been way up since, like, the first month of the season. He basically was like a strikeout per inning pitcher. Last four starts for Wade Miley, the strikeout. the strikeouts are down, 16 strikeouts and 24 innings. I can understand yesterday, the Angels, he only struck out three Angels. They are the lowest strikeout team in baseball on a per game basis. Can't really understand Seattle four starts to go.

Only two strikeouts. They're a high K team. But it's something to track. He had not been a strikeout pitcher until the Astros worked their magic on him. And in the bullpen, Andrew Miller got a save. Carlos Martinez pitched two straight days. Not very well. but I don't think there's anything more to just arrest there.

And Hector Neris got a save, shouted a curse word at the Dodgers. And he also gave up a home run as he continues to be terrible. I'm shouting curse words at him. All those home runs. Four in his past five appearances, closer can't get away with that. The saving grace is the Phillies don't have anyone else who can close. So he's probably going to stick there. but I would try to

I would try to figure out something else if I was counting on him as my second closer which is more likely you can find somebody out there in a head-to-head league than a roto league but I'd be looking. Where the heck is Tommy Hunter? Why hasn't he pitched since the 13th? He's been injured.

Oh, oh, he's on the IEL again? Yeah. Geez. He has made five appearances and has not given up a run this season. but now he's on the aisle with a forearm strain. I did not catch that. Now, Robertson could be back soon.

Yeah, you know, it's a shame because, Scott, I thought Nerris was going to be sort of like, I was all in on him. He did claim the job. There's no question. And he had been pitching really well. This has been a dreadful stretch. Okay, let's talk ads and drops.

Let's start with the most added list on CBSports.com. To pull up the roster trends here. Let's take a guess. Who do you think the most added player is? The most added player is, I'm going to say, Garrett Cooper. No, that's a good guess. But he is more or less nowhere to be found, which means he's under-owned. Yeah, he is.

Oh, wait, wait, wait, wait. I was only looking at free agents. Garrett Cooper is like eighth. Well, Daniel Ponce de Leon is still the number one most added player. He is a two-star pitcher next week. Alex Young is number two. We're not really believing at him, right? He's 48% own Diamondbacks pitcher Alex Young.

I am not believing in him, though I am curious. He's an interesting fella because the numbers were terrible at AAA, and he just, he goes about attacking hitters in a weird way. His fastball is kind of a secondary pitch. I think just based on his AAA numbers, that he's not going to have success with that approach for long, but it's unconventional. Travis Darno is next on the most added list.

Darno, thanks? I guess. Two catcher leagues I could see him being usable, but he just doesn't play enough. Nate Lowe is next. Nate Lowe, he sat a couple of games. He did against left-handers. Started both games of the double header yesterday.

He had three hits, including two doubles and one. Overall numbers are looking pretty good. It does seem like there could be a playing time issue there, but if he continues to perform, I imagine he'll put that issue to rest. And I think last time I talked about Lowe, I pointed out that his AAA numbers this year weren't very good. They got a lot better, apparently.

I guess he got hot because he ended up with an OPS over 900 there. And yeah, I mean, obviously, you have to take AAA numbers with the grain to solve because of the juice ball there this year. But nonetheless, his June and July at AAA were awesome. Okay, so there's three hitters that are up in the top, well, four. Once you rank these four hitters, they're in the top eight on the most out of list. Nate Lowe, Tyler O'Neill, Matt Brasso, third baseman for the raise, and Garrett Cooper. I will go Cooper, Lowe, Brasso, and O'Neill.

But there's some interest in all of them. I'm not writing any of them off. I think O'Neill's, it's going to be hard for him to be useful in a points league. But five outfielder, you know, categories leagues, he could be, he can make a splash with the home runs for sure. How about Danny Santana, now 46% owed? Yeah, I saw an interesting note from him yesterday,

let off the waiver wire column with him. He's working out at third base as Drew Bull Cabrera has been terrible. And Chris Woodward, the Rangers manager, said he's one of the best hitters in baseball right now. He's got to find a way to get him in the lineup. Yeah. So, I mean, he's not as good as he's been. But it looks like he should be a decent source of batting average with some power and he runs. I mean, it looks like he could be a five-fate category contributor.

So I don't know that he's an across-the-board ad, but if we were ranking all of these players, the only one I'd put ahead of him is Garrett Cooper. Yeah, Danny Santana, and if he gets work at third base and he makes five appearances there, not only does he have five tools who have five positions of eligibility. When triple eligibility,

remember when triple eligibility used to be like a huge deal in fantasy? We talk about the home runs and how the offensive environment has changed, but that's something that's changed too, It was just how versatile everybody is. Yep. It's definitely made a big impact on fantasy. Now, when I used to do the position previews back in the day, I don't know, like seven, eight years ago, I remember one of the first things I would put was who was dual eligible.

That was a big deal. Yeah. And now I wouldn't even think twice. By the end of the, by mid-season, a lot of them are going to be dual or triple eligible. Other guys here on the most added list, Manuel Noriano, you got to keep. batting him, he's 81% owned. I would not be buying into Jeff Samarjah at 47% owned. I wonder if he's a two-star pitcher.

No, he's not. He's pitching tomorrow against the Mets than at San Diego. But Michael Paneda at 76% owned. I know that's pretty high, but still maybe you can make a case Panada should be up in the 80s. Yeah, he's been doing a lot better since coming back from the IEL, throwing harder, having more success with the change-up. Danny Salazar, 42% owned.

you know, that that could be inflated because people have IL spots. What are your expectations for Salazar? Low. I did a top 30 IL stashes earlier this week, and obviously some of the names have come off. Some new ones have gone on since then, but Salazar was not among the 30 names. He was probably 31st, but, you know, that's not saying much.

How about Andres Munoz? This guy was, he's a reliever for the Padres, and he's been promoted, and now he is 10% owned. And according to this update, he is the best relief pitching prospect in the majors. He can touch 100, I'm just ignorant on this, 100 and 4 mile per hour fastball. So far, so awesome. Four and a third. Okay, I need to get Andres Munoz. He's got six strikeouts in four and a third.

and Yates is obviously on the block. I don't know if they turn over closer duties to him. They have other guys. Yeah, Andres Munoz for the Padres. It would be interesting who they turn closing duties over to, because Craig Stamondon is probably the most logical candidate. But it could be this guy. I mean, there definitely seems to be some buzz surrounding Munoz.

I am a little skeptical they trade Yates, but they could. Okay. All right, that's the most added list. Time now for the drop-o meter. Zero to 10. How dropable are these guys? Zero is do not drop them, you idiot. Ten is drop them right now.

Fran Mill Reyes, 75% of it. It just depends on the format. You could totally drop them in three outfield or points league. Five out of Roto to be no way. No way you drop him because he's providing too many home runs. Okay, so we're going to say a five then for Framil Reyes. Sure. Cabin Bigio.

He is, let's see, he was. He's four for his last 44 with no extra base hits. Yikes, Cabin Vigio. Yeah, he's probably a... Also a five. You know, it just depends on how badly you need a second baseman. What your depth looks like. I still think there's a lot to like there.

Okay. He's on Cabin Bigio. Michael Chavis, 78% owned. And he had played exclusive. exclusively first base since June 4th until playing second base yesterday with Brock Holtz sitting, but I still maintain that Mitch Moreland

could bump Chavis out of the lineup. So Michael Chavis on the dropometer, zero to ten. I'd rather have Bigio, so I guess I'm going to have to go with like a six or seven here, maybe a seven. His strikeout percentage is 33.3%,

which is getting up to Joey Gallo, territory. Scooter Jeanette, 80% own, zero to ten. He's batting 147 with one walk to 10 strikeouts in 11 games. Four. See, I feel like, you know, a guy like Jeanette, the way baseball is right now, in field's so deep. You know, do you have to own him, no? But Jeanette and I would say, Didi Grigorous, who's already coming out of it a little bit.

But they're going to be better. There's no reason why they wouldn't be better, especially Didi. Yeah, no, I agree. I agree there's too much of a track record. I mean, Jeanette's last two years, he was a top five second baseman, right? Last year was top five, the year before that he was like top 12. From the point he became a full-timer two years ago he was also. I only have him 17th in my rest of season rankings because Jeff McNeil obviously has become what he is,

Lordus Guerrille, obviously, Daniel Murphy's come around, Kestan Hira. Have you seen what he's been doing lately? Number one second basement since his promotion. Yeah, so Jeanette's gotten pushed all the way down for 17th to 17th for me, and I still think he's probably going to be good, but there's no reason to take him over some of these others, which means I guess I could see him getting dropped in shallower leagues. Okay, yeah, I agree with that. And finally, David Fletcher is 58% owned.

I just wanted to talk about him. I mean, I feel like we need to talk about guys like this sometimes. David Fletcher, still only 30 strikeouts in 91 games. He's leading off for the Angels. But he's having a bounce back July after a miserable June. So instead of saying the dropometer, how owned do you think David Fletcher should be? I don't know what he is. I would guess, oh, he's 58%.

I was going to say about 60, and he's 58. So I think it's probably right. It's like his skill set is better attuned for points leagues. And yet points of leagues are the ones with the smaller rosters. So it makes him a difficult fit. Okay, Scott, team scam, head-to-head categories. We need to pick up Andres Munoz, I'd say. Okay.

Let's drop Willie Calhoun. You cool with that? I am. Yeah, he doesn't have a job, so I am cool with that. Okay. We got Andreas Munoz. We are going to win the league now. All right, two-star pitchers.

Let's take a look at the list again. And see if there's any tough calls here. I know Colorado is on the road all week, so that means we don't have to worry about guys going to Coors Field. No, no, start him, start him. Mike fires at Houston home against Texas. I don't want to start him. I'm afraid to say don't start him,

but I don't want to start him. How about John Gray? John Gray at Washington and at Cincinnati. I would definitely start him. Dallas Kichel, Kansas City, and at Philadelphia. Yep. Wade Miley, Oakland, and at St. Louis. I might not in Categories League, but I probably would.

I really think this is a pretty self-explanatory list this week, but, like, Dakota Hudson, at Pittsburgh and Home Against Houston. Only in a points league. Marco Gonzalez is 80% owned. He's got the Rangers at home and Detroit at home. So Marco Gonzalez, 80% owned, Rangers in Detroit. Only in a points league. Yeah, that's a risky one.

Now, the Rangers aren't quite as good against lefties, but that's pretty risky. Chris Archer, St. Louis, and at the Mets. Yes, I think across the board. Martine Perez, Yankees, and at the White Sox. Uh, you could, he might qualify, he might qualify, I guess, as a mild sleeper, but I'd rather not start him if I, if I had good enough pitching that I didn't have to turn to a sleeper. Cici Sabathia, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Chase Anderson, anyone there? Like I said, I think you could make a case for Sabathia just how well he's been pitching lately, but it's not, it's not an enthusiastic case.

Okay. And then we have Homer Bailey, Danny Duffy. Neither of those guys have good matchups. Bailey has terrible matchups. Trevor Richards, Spencer Turnbull, Jason Vargas. That's an interesting one. San Diego and Pittsburgh for Vargas. No, I can't do it. No. And plus he might get traded. Yeah, that's it, Scott. That's all I got. Nobody. Don't start these guys.

Don't do it. Don't do it, people. Well, e-mails. Fantasy Baseball, C-Basea.com, let's send the show. From, from Jake from State Farm. Oh, I know him. Yeah. Hey, Aaron, Joe, Billy, and Casey. Ooh, I know them. Yankees managers.

Okay. How do you guys go about evaluating starting pitcher versus relief pitcher in a head-to-head categories league? I was offered Will Smith for Sunny Gray, but I'm not sure the best way to compare them. I already have Kimball and Ian Kennedy, plus a strong staff of a reaffer. you, Bieber, Bauer, Kershaw, Soroka, Flaherty, and M.K. I mean, if you have three closers already, he only has two.

He only has two, and one of them could get traded in Kennedy. Unfortunately, Will Smith is definitely going to get traded. And it looks like a strong starting pitcher group. Yeah, you know, I don't know when your league's trade deadline is, but I don't think I could trade for Will Smith right now, especially with the way Sunny Gray's trending. Because he could just wind up in a situation where he's not a closer.

But if you're just asking about SP versus RP, in your case, you have a strong pitching staff. I wouldn't mind trading gray for a closer that you know is going to be closing. Yeah, I mean, if you needed a third one. I think if I already had three, I'd rather hold on to the starting pitcher. He's got two closers because Ian Kennedy is, he's not that good to begin with. Well, he's not going to get that many saves to begin with, and I think he's going to get moved. Probably.

And I think it's very likely he wouldn't be a close. or wherever he landed. Maybe if he went to like Atlanta, he would, but probably not. Okay, Dave and Burbank, what do we do with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? It's ugly. I mean, in a shallower league, I guess you could bench him, and, you know, obviously you'd have to have a good third base alternative. You could maybe bench him, but like I said, coming out of the break,

I think he's in for a big finish here. And I would want to hold on to him. Adam from Toronto, would you make any of these trades? He'd be giving up Josh Bell and Chris Paddock. So would you give up Josh Bell and Chris Paddock for Gallo and Paxton? Yeah, I think just to avoid the Paddock situation later, that seems fine. Or Pete Alonzo or Reese Hoskins in Paxton. Any of them seem fine.

If it's a category league, I would lean more toward Gavis. followed by Alonzo and then Hoskins. Josh Bell and Paddock for Goldschmidt and Castillo. Would you do that? No. Well, I might. I guess it depends how much I needed pitching, because everybody needs pitching,

and you're clearly getting the best pitcher there. Scott, I have verbally agreed to acquire Shane Bieber for Fernando Tatis. I feel like he'll be happy about that. Took weeks, but finally doing it. Unless somebody gets injured this weekend. Last email from Ryan. Grade the trade in a 14 team Categories League.

My Ben Intendi for Zach Wheeler. I think that is a C. It's probably a C. Listen. Beninty really hasn't offered much. I'm fine. Like, if he weren't on the IL and they keep downplaying it,

but I can't trade for an injured pitcher. I just can't do it. Not after what we've seen. I just don't know what Ben Intendi's providing for you. And I don't have a lot of enthusiasm. He's going to turn it around. And it's so hard to get a quality starting pitcher. If we believe Wheeler's that.

And certainly the innings and strikeouts suggest so. I think it's a good opportunity to buy him. Yeah, there's some risk. But I'm not sure you're giving up something you're going to miss that much in this case. And we're out of here. Thanks for listening, everybody. Have a great, great weekend. Have a great Coca-Mov.

Friday. Scott and I will talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Baseball today. See you