Fantasy Baseball Today - 07/24: Big Time Performers, Bullpens, Tue. Recap (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 24, 2019

Tuesday was a wild one in baseball and we're here to recap the big hitting performances (1:56) from Trea Turner, Miguel Sano, Robinson Cano and more. And we move on to the big pitching performances (10:10) from Dallas Keuchel, Danny Duffy, Pedro Payano and a couple of others ... Fun stats (21:00), news and notes (23:00) as we discuss if SF will still be selling, "d'Arnaud He Didn't!" (28:50) and our thoughts on Chris Archer and Yu Darvish (30:00) ... More from yesterday including noteworthy pitchers (37:40) like Domingo German, Kyle Gibson, Tanner Roark, and Dakota Hudson. Bullpen notes (43:50) and hitters (46:00) like Amed Rosario, Manuel Margot, Alex Gordon and Jesse Winker ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled and fast. Alboros and twilight. Get a fantasy question. Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris.

Well, good morning, friends. Welcome to fantasy baseball today. What a busy, busy night in baseball. Scott, it was such a busy night that I don't even have time to be worried on what normally a Worryometer Wednesday. It is just a happy, fun baseball Wednesday. I like it. I like it. Worry is generally an

unproductive emotion, Adam. I think we should be, you know, concerned, appropriately concerned, but for the most part, we should feel good. So, being concerned is less severe than being worried? Yeah, yeah,

concerned, you know, invested maybe. I don't know. All right. Where he's not good. Well, listen, we had Trey Turner hitting for the cycle. We had a wild finish in the A's Astros game. We had a wild finish in the Yankees' Twins game. What is the Phillies Tigers game, I think, went 14 innings.

Miguel Sino, Runeette Odore, hit two home runs. Robinson could only hit three home runs for the first time in his career. Mickey Calloway said, you don't hit three home runs if you're declining. You don't hit three home runs if you're declining. We had some big-time pitching performances. Danny Duffy at the Braves was outstanding, six-innings, 11 strikeouts. And Pedro Piano enters the show with five innings of one-run ball and seven strikeouts. After an opener, he is a Texas Rangers pitcher.

So, yeah, we're going to get right to it. With five big-time hitting performances and five big-time pitching performances, Scott, let's start with Trey Turner. This is what blows my mind with Trey Turner. Scott. So he goes on the I.L. after four games. In those four games, he was like, oh, man, we should take him number one, right? Batting 3-57 with two home runs and four steals, three of them on opening day. Goes on the IL. First 20 games off the IEL, and he missed like 38 games or something. First 20 games off the IL, he struggled. 239 batting average, one home run, four steals.

Now let's look at the next 35 games for Trade Turner off the IL, not even including the cycle yesterday. Here's his 162 game pace in 836 OPS, 56 doubles, 10 triples, 19 home runs, and 40 and, sorry, 56 steals. So, amazing, like outstanding numbers, 836 OPS with 56 steals. And yet, in that stretch, not even a top 30 hitter in fantasy in either points or Roto. Can you believe that, Scott? I'm surprised he's not in Roto. Points, you know, I can see it in point, but not in Roto just because steals tend to elevate a player. I think beyond what's reasonable in the Roto formula.

So that's surprising to me. How were you able to calculate that, by the way? Last one, you know, past 162 games for everybody? No, no, no. I'm saying I just looked at the date range in those 35 games. I gave you his 162 game pace. Oh, okay, in the last 35, okay, you gave me his, I'm sorry. That was 162 game pace.

His pace. His pace. Right, his pace in this season. Now, look, it's a 19 home run pace with a 291 batting average. In a points league, it's a ton of strikeouts. Trey Turner's plate discipline. hasn't really been great. It's a pace of 61 walks to 190 strikeouts. But 56 doubles, 10 triples, 56 steals, and a 291 batting average, just shocked that it's not top 30 player or hitter. Because I see those numbers and with how scarce deals are, I'm saying that's a first round pick, even though it's been a little under the radar. What do you think? Yeah, well, in Roto, yeah.

In Roto, I would, or five-by-five categories, league, I would agree. Any time you can get a large number of steals like that from a player who doesn't really hurt you in any other category. I mean, even 19 home runs, you said. Then that sounds like first-round material to me. You know, a 30-game sample, I imagine, has a lot of outlier, you know, performances in it, performances that you'd look at. Okay, oh, that's unsustainable. a guy could do that over a 30-day period, but not over a full season. When maybe in Trey Turner's case, it's a more realistic pace over a full season.

Where he is hurting you is RBIs. He's on pace in those 35 games. Again, this is before the cycle for 56 RBIs. But how weird is this? 56 RBIs, 56 doubles, 56 steals, but 121 runs. All right, so Scott, wrap it up. Put a little bow on it. Your thoughts on a sort of quietly, very good trade Turner. I mean, I would suspect if we were drafting for 2019 or 2020, wow, in the year 2020. I would suspect that he would still be a late first rounder for me in Roto and probably like a late second rounder in points. Gotcha. All right, Miguel Sineau, 53% own, mentioned the other day that they had made some adjustments to his swing or his stance. It doesn't matter.

Some adjustments in the box. And he went two for six with two home runs. He's now batting 232. 16 home runs and 11 doubles in 51 games. He's never hit more than 22 doubles in a season. Also, never played more than 116 games in a season. But last 28 days now, Miguel Sinoa is a top 10 first baseman, top 13 third baseman, 26th home runs, 11 walks, 26 strikeouts in 28 days.

A little slightly surprising that he's higher at first base than third base in that stretch. But are you moved to add to no, still widely available, 53% own? You know, it might be tough in a head-to-head league just because first base, third base. There are so many options to go around. It's unlikely I need an upgrade there. It's unlikely I need to upgrade my utility spot. Certainly if you're talking about Roto League, where you have extra lineup spots to fill, you know, obviously in that format the strikeouts, which are very high, are not going to hurt you,

that he probably needs to be owned. But his ownership reflects that, I think. I would say he's probably a little underowned, but I can understand why he just might not be a fit for many fantasy players out there. Miguel Sineau. All right, Scott, the last three big time hitting performances, three homer game from Robinson Canoe, two homer game from Rognette O'Dore, a five-for-five game with a home run, two doubles, and seven RBI. for Didi Gagorius, who, by the way, even though he's not playing every day, is now in the last 28 days,

the number seven shortstop in points, number five shortstop in Roto, batting 311 with a 568 slugging percentage, and 20 RBIs, which are the second most among short stops in his last 20 days. So out of Kno, 28 days, out of Knoe,

Odore, and Didi, who stands out the most who you excited about? and there are more than one possible answers for this. Well, I have the most hope for D.D., because I think there's certainly a path for him to play every day again. I mean, obviously, the valued part of the Yankees lineup last year, especially before getting hurt.

So he's pretty much producing like you should. He just needs to play more. The other two have been awful this year, awful. and I think it would have to be a pretty deep league for me to still have shares in them. You know, I drafted Canoe pretty widely this preseason and I don't think I own him anywhere anymore including a couple 15 team leagues where I dropped him.

And look, it's been a little better lately. The Mets made reference to some changes he's been working on after this game. He's been working hard. There was a lot of those kinds of comments without getting into specifics of what he's doing. I know you mentioned Adam that he had been dealing with kind of a nagging injury all year. Well, that was the thing that kind of stood out.

It was after he hit home runs, actually I think it was the first game. He hit home runs and back-to-back games at Miami last week, and he said, I don't want to make excuses, but here's my excuse, basically. I've been hit on the hand several times this season, and now my hand feels a lot better. So after home-ring and back-to-back games, he went three for 21 with a walk-five-stress. strikeouts in a double, so it didn't really look like anything. And now he hits three-home runs Robinson-Kanel. Right.

I'm not especially moved to pick him up based on a three-homer game. Contrary to what Mickey Calloway says, I think it is possible to be on the decline and still hit three home runs in a game. Agreed, yes, yes. I'm sure we could find an example in history where that's happened. Kirk Neu and I did it for the bench. Obviously, for Desper for Second Base help, you know, maybe he's your answer. I just don't think many people are.

I tried to find an example of this. I think the last three guys on the Mets to hit three homers in a game where Yueness Cespitus, and he did have a very good game, but obviously he's on the decline. Kirk Newn Heiss, who just wasn't a very good hitter, and Lucas Duda in his last good season. So, but look, there's so many three homer games. I'm sure Mickey Calloway's quote doesn't hold up. All right, let's go to the pitchers who had big,

performances yesterday. Let's start with Dallas Keikle. Wow. So I know the Royal's strikeout, but 12 strikeouts and six innings for Keikle, two runs. He now is a 350 ERA and a 125 whip, but in his last five starts, it's a 109 whip and a 3ERA after his first two starts of the season, which were okay. You know how I feel about Keikle. How do you feel about

Keikle? I feel great about Keikle, Adam. I think he's going to prove you very wrong when all is said and done. Particularly like his three starts prior to this one. Yeah, the strikeouts weren't very high. And he's not a guy who needs a lot of strikeouts because the ground ball rate is so great. But the swinging striker, it was solid for three starts prior to this one. Then obviously it was great in this one. Yeah, I think he's doing, I think he's doing closer to Keikl in his best years than in his worst, not saying he's going to be Sai Young.

caliber or anything, but I do think he's basically must start. I don't, with him, I don't really care about the swinging strike rate because I know he's not going to be a strikeout guy. So, you know, he is what he is. I care a lot more about the ground ball rate, which is 57.7%, which is outstanding. However, when Kiko has had his three great seasons, it's been 61% or higher. And we've talked about that before. Like he doesn't need a great ground ball rate.

He needs a ridiculously great ground ball rate. So he's not there yet. It's hard to know what to make of him after seven starts when he had so much time off. It's encouraging for sure. I think he's going to benefit from being in a new league. But I still, maybe I'm being stubborn here. I still think he's not that good. I'm still waiting for issues to arise.

And I would consider selling high on Dallas Kichel. You hear the way I'm speaking, I have a little less conviction. But we have to note, like, his last, you know, he's had good starts against the Marlins and the Royals lately. Also the Padres. That was very good. You know, I think he's, no, I'm, look, I'm going to stick with it. I think you should sell high on Dallas Kichel. I just don't buy his skill set anymore.

I just don't buy it. It wasn't even good last year. Okay. Yeah, but. Well, he was, I mean, it depends what you mean by good. He was, he was close to must start. I mean, the whip was kind of high. The ERA was kind of high, but he threw 200 innings and won a bunch of games for that.

Oh, he run one of the 12 games, I guess, but he threw a bunch of innings. And, you know, it was good enough in a, in a weak environment for pitching that, like, you're not, you're not dumping that guy, you know? Yeah, but. I remember you and I, I brought this up before, so I apologize for repeating. You and I had him in our 16-team Categories League, and we really didn't start him. Because he was bad in categories. Like 374 ERA last year. This year, that'd be like, you'd take it.

Last year or whatever. But the whip was really high. He had a 1-3-1 whip last year. And overall, the strikeouts, he had 153 of them in 204 and 2. It's just a very low strikeout rate last year. Yeah, Points League, I would agree. He was probably close to a must start. All right, Danny Duffy was his counterpart last night.

And 11 strikeouts in six innings, one run. Yeah, you and I were too nervous to start him, but he's 33% own, and now really I am going to make an excuse for him in that Detroit start. It was the injury. Now it's a pretty good string of starts for Danny Duffy, and he's 33% own. What do you think, Scott? I think he's usable.

I don't. You know, obviously, Danny Duffy has a history of being a, you know, pretty close to top flight fantasy pitcher himself. A couple years ago, that's what he was. And I don't think he's near that level. And I don't think he's trending that direction. What really gets me is that the strikeouts have been all over the place for him up and down. And it's just hard to get a good read on him because of that. But, you know, it seems like he's fully capable of delivering equality start.

any time out. It's just I think there are probably going to be outings where he gets hit pretty hard. Kind of like we saw for Merrill Kelly yesterday. Like Merrill Kelly's proven to be plenty useful for Diamondbacks because he pitches deep into games and his control is so good that at times, you know, he's able to keep runs off the board. But he is susceptible to getting hit hard.

And I think Duffy's in the same category there where you don't want to trust him too much. Right matchups, fine, but you don't want to trust him too much. Would you drop Chris Archer for Danny Duffy? No. Okay. Next, stand out. I'll do three in a row here.

Well, I'll do two in a row. Wade Miley and Caleb Smith. Do you consider both Wade Miley and Caleb Smith? Miley had a very good start against the A's. Smith had a great start at the White Sox, flirted with a perfect game. Do you consider them Miley and Caleb Smith must starts? Not quite.

in either case. Now, in the leagues where I own them, I'm usually starting them. But Smith has had issues pitching deep enough to have any hope for a win. I think this was his third. It went seven in this one. It was his third of nine

with six plus innings. And, you know, it's already so hard for a Marlins pitcher to win games. I like the skill set for Caleb Smith, but, you know, a lot of times he just gets pushed out of my lineup because there's more hope. for wins for whoever else happens to be there.

And way Miley, like, I consider a must-own. If you're going to use the X-FIP standard that we use for so many other pitchers, you know, it doesn't really back up what he's doing. But I have faith in what the Astros are doing with pitchers. And, of course, I have faith in the Astros lineup to give him run support, that I'm willing to ride it just because I have really no other choice at starting pitching. But I would call Miley less than must-up. Did we start him in a lot of?

in our league? Wade Miley? Yep. Yes, we did. You all better watch out for our team, okay? Our team is good. Our team is good.

So those are your big time pitching performances. Keiko, Duffy, Miley, and Caleb Smith, and there's one more. Texas rookie Pedro Piano, unowned. I'm really intrigued by these

openers and how they seem to be making pitchers just so much better like Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Malone and Felix Pena and whatnot. Yesterday it was Pedro Piano. And then, like, Malone started yesterday, by the way, and he got crushed. But Pedro Piano for the Rangers, five innings, three hits, one run, one walk and seven strikeouts.

15 swinging strikes on 78 pitches. Only his second big league appearance. His first one was just one inning. Are you moved at all to add Pedro Piano, who has earned a longer look, it seems, in the bigs? Yeah, I'm willing to, you know, put him on my scout team, as people like to say. I feel like there is good stuff there. The strikeout rate was good in the minors this year between AA and AAA, but the other numbers weren't very much.

And control probably has something to do with it. But, you know, it's hard for me to invest in a guy after only one good appearance. You know, who wasn't that good in the minors? Right. Simple fact of the matter. So, you know, I would go with either of the Giants pitchers we talked about yesterday, Tyler Beattie or Connor Menez,

who got sent down, but, you know, I still think he's in line to make starts in the future. I would go with either of them over Payano. Would you put Piano in your N.A. spot in a Yahoo League? I just learned about the N.A. spot yesterday. That was not a term I was familiar with. But apparently it encompasses a wide range of different ways a player could not be on an active roster because he's in the minors, let's say, or he's on, like, paternity leave or something like that. So, of course, leave it to Yahoo to make for this Uber flexible roster spot

because they have, you know, no standards when it comes to limiting where you can put a player. Everybody is eligible everywhere. That's sort of true. Yeah, the NA spot, not active. Yes, I have Clint Frazier in my NA spot in my Yahoo League. We have a new segment. It's called OPS Watch. We're not really debuting it today because it's about,

Jose Ramirez and his OPS. His OPS has never been, all season long, has not been 700. But yesterday, going into yesterday's games, it was 699. So I was getting really excited for Jose Ramirez to have a 700 OPS. He did not have a good game. It's now down to 695. When Jose Ramirez gets that Ops up to 700, we are going to have a freaking podcast party on this show. We're going to play fun music. I'm going to text like balloons to everyone. body. It's going to be great. Can Fetti? Can you have a bitfetti drop down behind you? Eddie. I think you should rig something back.

So just be aware. We're looking at you, Jose Ramirez, and your OPS. All right, we're taking our first break here on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, the stat of the day that makes me laugh, the stat of the day that makes me cringe, and much more from Tuesday's games. And welcome back. The stat of the day that makes me laugh, Scott. This is, both of these are from the AP. Jason Vargas's hardest fastball was clocked at 84.6 miles per hour. Chris Paddock's lowest changeup came in a tick faster at 84.7 miles per hour. And Vargas had a much better start than Chris Paddock.

So how about that? Stat of the day, that makes me cringe. Trevor Bauer has thrown a major league leading 2,594 pitches this season. almost 2,600. Houston's Garrett Cole at 2,261 is second. That is insane. That is a huge gap. A gap.

2594 to 2261. And Trevor Bauer actually didn't feel well yesterday before the start. So Terry Francona did take it easy on him. He only threw 117 pitches. Yeah, I'm sure if Trevor. Trevor Bauer suffers an arm injury at some point in the near future, you will pound your chest and say, I told you so. And, you know, I think there's a high probability of that

because I think there's a high probability of that for every pitcher. But he seems to have a plan. He seems to understand this better than I think the average pitcher, what kind of strain an arm can take. And, you know, he's of, he has that ridiculous idea that, you know, once he's out of his initial contract here with the Indians that, of course, started with the Diamondbacks, he wants to sign nothing but one-year deals for the rest of his career. So there should be no pitcher more invested in his arm health than he is.

Yeah. Okay. Well, it's just, you know, it's an ongoing thing. All right, injuries, news, and notes. You know, if Gary Sanchez didn't leave with a groin injury, I probably would have had a Woriometer segment. He went 0 for 5 yesterday and has been awful lately. His last 20 games entering yesterday, 125 batting average with a 188 slugging percentage. And the Yes Network had some stats on him in those 20 games. His chase rate was up to 37.4% from 34.9%. His ground ball rate up from 28% to 38.5%. That's in these 20 terrible games. Exit velocity down, almost six. Almost six. miles per hour from 93.4 miles per hour to 87.7. Now Gary Sanchez's groin injury. He went on the IL twice with a groin injury last year. He says this one's not as bad, but it is possible. Sanchez

ends up on the IL. Meanwhile, Joey Gallo left with wrist soreness. He's day to day. He's going to sit out today most likely and hopefully be back after that, but he'll have an MRI. And since I have Sanchez and Gallo on the same team, basically my season is in jeopardy. Domingo Santana left with elbow soreness. D. Gorman. on the IEL with a quad strain. Max Scherzer will most likely start tomorrow. Tim Anderson's going to begin a rehab assignment today. Noon Aeron Aeronado talked about how he's struggling to stay healthy.

He said he'll finally get back to feeling good and then foul ball off his shin. So he's just had these nagging injuries and it is clearly affecting his performance. When Noon Aeronado gets healthy, when he gets right, he's going to be amazing. But you've got to wait it out a little bit. Chris was a little flummox yesterday because he was so sure that Yuleiguriel's luck is going to change. And then, of course, Ulygara Holt hits an inside-the-park home run. And it kind of was pretty funny. It got under Chris's skin.

The Giants won again, Scott. I'm here to tell you and everyone else, what we already know, the Giants are not good. They are not going to make the playoffs. They are actually probably a bad team, but they are on an unbelievable hot streak right now. Very fantasy relevant, though, because it's looking less likely that Bumgarner and Will Smith are going to get traded.

Nah, they're going to get traded. I don't know. I have to think they're GM, and I can't remember his name. So, you know, he's, yeah, I can't remember it either. I can't remember his name, but you'd know him if you saw it. Yeah, you know, he has the, the resume he's built as an interim GM. I mean, like, this guy knows what's going on. Faran, Faran Zaidi.

Faran, Faran, Zaidi. Yes, Scott, I think the, The X factor here is that it's Bruce Bochie's last season. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if he's going to get... Because they're both such great assets, Fome Garner and Will Smith, and you can't get nothing for them.

Yeah. And, you know, what's probably a futile attempt to chase a playoff spot? They're not very good. Like, what percentage chance do you give them of making the playoffs if they own all of those, if they hold on to those players? Like, less than 10% probably.

So, yeah, I don't think they're going to hold on to them. And a lot can change in a week, which is how long we have until the trade deadline. And you know what? The fact that they're not finding a way to get Alex Dickerson in the lineup tells me they're really not invested in the outcome of this season because he has been amazing every time he's played. Yeah, and I feel like there are probably some people in the Giants for an office who are like rooting for the Blues.

secretly. And they just keep pulling out these wins, including a big win yesterday at the Cubs. All right. More news and notes. Oh, Daniel Hudson. That's who I wanted to talk about. We've had a whole segment on relievers that could become closers. We didn't mention Daniel Hudson. But I do believe he'd be in line in Toronto if and when Ken Giles gets traded. Byron Buckson should be back soon. He had his wisdom teeth pulled. Scott, do you have your wisdom teeth? I do not have my wisdom teeth. No. You had them pulled, huh? Having been through that process, and, you know, I didn't have it nearly as tough as some stories I've heard,

I'm surprised Byron Buxton chose to get it done while he's dealing with the concussion. That raised an eyebrow for me. Yeah, I was wondering if it could have been related in any way, but yeah, it was strange. Colorado called up Yonder Alonzo. He will not be a starter for them. Zach Wheeler expected to start on Friday. Wilson Contreras back today. David Peralto should be back soon.

Mitch Morland is back. did start yesterday with Michael Chavez still banged up. Kind of interested to see what goes on there. Johnny Quato could pitch in September. I don't know how interested we are at him, but he's recovering from Tommy John. But he could pitch in September, Johnny Quato. Gene Seguro's got this heel injury. Yandy Diaz is on the IL.

Charlie Blackman could be on the market, according to MLB.com. No, no thanks. Please stay in Colorado, Charlie Blackman. The rays are struggling. They are 43 and 43 since beginning their season at 14 and 4. in third place in the AL East. They are outside of the wildcard race as well. Looking in.

Renato Nunez homered again. We talked about him yesterday. Don't know why this stood out, but it did Elvis Andrews. I think it stood out because, you know, Babbitt progression is real. Elvis Andrews had a crazy high Babbup. He's now batting 2.27 in his last 20 games. Thankfully, he has five steals.

And Jose Altuve stole his second base in five games. That is a good trend. Let's hope it continues. Scott, here comes a segment called Darno. didn't. Travis Darno Homer again. Your thoughts. Darno, he didn't. I know, right? But he did.

That's the thing. Yeah. Now, that's pretty much all he's been doing. I don't know. I don't know what to make of it because you know, it wasn't that long ago that we thought this guy had pretty good upside and we were overdrafting him every year in fantasy because of it. I feel like, A, he needs to play more than every other day for me to get excited.

And B, he needs to do something other than hit home runs because that is the pace nobody can sustain since the three homer game at the end of last week. Okay, here is a segment called Remember When They Were Good? And it's really going to bother Scott, I think, because Scott's going to say, hey, one of these guys is still good. and the other one might be. Chris Archer and you Darvish. They seem to pitch on the same day a lot, and they had very similar lines, six innings,

four runs, six strikeouts. Archer gave up one more hit, one more walk, and one more home run. I'm still encouraged by Darvish. He's facing arguably the best team in baseball the San Francisco Giants, and he only gave up four runs. That's quite frankly a miracle against the Giants.

But one home run in his last three starts, seven walks in his last eight starts. I do see Darvish and Archer very differently. But, you know, look, it wasn't that bad for Chris Archer, right? It was a little frustrating that he was given an early 3-0 lead. He couldn't get a win. And I do feel like this is Chris Archer, like six innings, three or four runs, home run problems. How valuable is that?

Or do you think there's a – because he did – I did see him throw his change up a little bit. I know there have been some encouraging signs, but if you and I are both pretty encouraged by Darvish, where are you on Archer? I'm not discouraged. You know, I had, it was weird because I first got an inkling of how he performed in Twitter. I saw a bunch of people complaining about how bad Chris Archer is. And I thought, oh, no, this must have been an ugly one. And then I look at the box is going. And I'm like, oh, no, it's four runs in six innings with a strikeout per.

That, like, there's nothing wrong with that. Well, there is. I mean, I think he's, it's, well, okay, so it's kind of interesting. we got called out for this. In general, if you did six-innings four-runs every start, you'd be terrible. Yeah, that'd be a six-e-or-a, right? If that's like your bad start, you know, there's still enough encouraging stuff there where you could say, all right, six-innings four runs, it's not good, but we can live with it.

I think the problem is there's just too many six-sitting four-run types of starts for Chris Archer, or even six-innings three runs, and it's just, It's leading to a high ERA. Very high. Yeah, I mean, it's one of those things where you can, you know, you can create these, like, mental exercises for you. Like, what if a player hit a home run every fifth at bat? But that's all he ever did.

He'd hit 200, but he'd also hit, you know, over 100 home runs. And, like, what if a player had four run runs and six innings every single time out there? He'd have a 6ERA, but he'd also probably still have a job. job because that's keeping your team in the game. You know, four and runs in six innings every time. You know, obviously baseball numbers don't work that way. So, you know, an isolated start like this, I think is fine. It's slightly less than a quality start, even though it is technically a six ERA.

You know, most pitchers who end up with a six ERA for the season don't go about it. Like, no pitcher goes about it doing it with four and runs in six innings every start. That means there's a lot of disastrous starts along the way. I think getting back to Archer though, I think it's encouraging. We've argued before about whether going just fastball slider is good for him or bad for him. I think it's good for him now having seen the results of him going the other way. And in this start, 83 of his 97 pitches were either a fastball or a slider. So he leaned heavily on those two again.

10% changeups. Yeah. There are a couple. That's not so high. I think he's got a limited ceiling. I just think... Yeah, he has a limited ceiling. He has a 510 ERA with Pittsburgh, you know,

or 501 ERA with Pittsburgh. He's 6 and 10. And he's got a 540 ERA this year. So, I mean, at some point, it's just like the numbers are the numbers. You know, it's hard to escape it. Well, but they've been better recently. But they have... So the thing is, like, what we said,

if you look at six innings three runs, six innings three runs, five innings three runs, six innings four runs, isolated, it's not so bad. But when that's all he's done, his last four starts, they end up being pretty bad numbers. With a high whip in there, too. Well, okay, let's look at it another way. Because his past three starts, two quality starts, and this one, which was just a run shy of being a quality start. 24 strikeouts and 18 innings in those three starts. Yeah, I mean, I think there's, like, you compare him to the average pitcher you're going to find on the waiver wire.

I would guess that in every league of any real size, there is no pitcher on the waiver wire coming off a three-start stretch that good. So, obviously he has a, you know, there's more reason to buy it from him because of his history than there would be random waiver wire pitch or two. All right. Well, I guess we're going to disagree on him again. We're comparing him to who you could drop him for as opposed to Chris Archer of the past Chris Archer of our expectations entering this year or last. And I still think Archer comes on. you know, if you're comparing him properly, I still think Archer comes out on the right side. Disagreeing on Chris Archer, very surprising, very rare for this show.

Last question on this topic here, it's actually about U. Darvish. And it's actually a proclamation from me. I would rather have, are you ready for this? I'm not sure, I'm ready for, I don't know if I want to say it. I'm going to say it, I'd rather have U. Darvish than Chris Paddock. What do you think? I don't think it's crazy. I mean, I think you, Darvish is basically back.

I know this one was less than quality yesterday, in the same way Archer's was. It's just a run shy of it. But that's coming off back-to-back starts with only two hits allowed. And over his past eight starts, Darvish has 54 strikeouts compared to just seven walks at 48 and two-thirds inning.

So, I mean, the control problem is fixed, and I think he's fixed. And Paddock's going to run out of innings. If it wasn't for the inning issue with Paddock, I'd still definitely take Paddock. And by the way, I would take Paddock now, too, but I don't think your idea is crazy. Okay, let's take one more quick break. We got a lot more to talk about. What did we learn about Domingo Raman possibly last night?

Zach Davies is probably a little bit too owned. I want to check in on guys like Ahmed Rosario and Manuel Margot, where at the annual people are getting excited about Manuel Margot points in the season. So all that's coming up right after this on Fantasy Baseball today. A lot to get to. of time. So, to borrow a quote from baseball's light speeds too slow. Scott, prepare the ship for ludicrous speed. Domingo Aramon

headlines the rotation and Kyle Gibson. Did you learn yesterday that they are not quite good enough to beat or to be started or trusted against the best teams in baseball? I don't think yesterday necessarily told us that. No, I mean, any pitcher, and even the aces, frankly, but certainly pitchers who are less than aces like them are vulnerable to these kinds of starts, particularly in this environment. I mean, Herman just got bludgeoned by home runs.

Kyle Gibson's game log looks weird because there was a couple of relief appearances in July. I think he got pulled after a rain delay once. So the innings have been all over the place lately. But he showed in his last start, I think, what the upside is. And it's still good for Gibson. Kenta Maeda. So a bad start, very bad start yesterday. four and a third, three runs, seven strikeouts against the Angels.

His previous appearance had been in the bullpen. He's going to probably go to the bullpen at some point. It can't be that far off. But, you know, look, he's a pretty good pitcher. 381 ERA, more than a strikeout per reading, a 106 whip. Maybe difficult to really value right now. How do you value Kent to Maeda knowing the Dodgers have incentive to put him in the pen? He's a frustrating pitcher for a number of reasons, yeah, in and out of the bullpen.

and they never really treat him like a full-fledged starter even when he's a starter. That's a guy whose innings have always been all over the place. And there's just too many sub-six inning starts for me to think of him, you know, approach him optimistically anytime he's into having a one-star week. Really? Interesting. Okay, so how would you rank Domingo Ramon, Kyle Gibson, Kentimaeada? Just the way you said them there. How would you rank these next three?

Aaron, Nola, Matt Boyd, and Chris Paddock. Nola and Boyd with good starts yesterday, Paddock struggled at the Mets. I would rank them just the way you said them, too, Nola Boyd. And it was the third one, Paddock. And by the way, Paddock, I would probably drop behind Hermann if we're going to intersect these groups. We sure were. Okay, Paddock behind her mind. Now, listen, I had mentioned it a lot last week.

Domingo Ramon had beaten up on a very favorable schedule. So I said, this is a big week. Let's find out what he's all about. At the Twins, at the Red Sox. So far, terrible. We'll see how he does against the Red Sox this weekend. And then his next start will once again be against the Red Sox, assuming they stay on turn.

That'll be next week. All right, fringy starting pitchers. I'm putting Zach Davies in here even though he's 84% owned. He should be fringy. So who do you like from this group? Davies. Merrill Kelly, real brutal start yesterday against Baltimore. Dakota Hudson was okay.

Tanner Roark. Tanner Roark has had one start all year in which he's allowed more than four runs and it was at Coors Field. So he keeps getting the game, but he's not that good for fantasy. But Roark and then Jason Vargas. So we have Davies, Merrill Kelly, Dakota Hudson. They're the same guy.

Tanner Roark and Jason Vargas. I think they're all useful when you need to stream somebody. Vargas was probably my favorite two-star sleeper this week and a bad week for two-star sleepers. because he has these games where his change up just ends up being Uber effective.

It's not very consistent and the walks have been higher this year. But when you need to be surprised by somebody delivering a good start, he tends to do that with, you know, he tends to be a good candidate to surprise you with that. My favorite is probably Dakota Hudson, but with the understanding, it's strictly in points leagues. because, I mean, he's probably the strangest case out there.

The whip you know is going to be very high, too high to really give him a second thought in a traditional 5-by-5 league. And yet the quality start count is very high because he's great at inducing weak contact, specifically keeping the ball on the ground. You know, it keeps his ERA low, and because he's not striking anybody out, It means he can go pretty deep into games more often than not. So I kind of like, is relief pitcher eligible? I kind of like just having them in my relief pitcher spot in a points league

because usually he gives you positive production there. Dakota Hudson. Okay. A couple more hitters I wanted to mention, Scott. Justin Smoke, Homer, he is a home run in two straight games. He was someone that Chris is excited about as a post-all-star break, possible breakout. 16.4% walk rate for Justin Smoke is a career high. 45% owned. Jesse Winker is 40% owned.

Been playing a little more lately because Nick Senzel was a bit banged up. They were both in the lineup yesterday. I think he's going to continue to sit against lefties, but Jesse Winker's been hitting a little bit better lately. Do you think Justin Smoke or Jesse Winker, who are 45 and 40% owned, respectively, should be owned in more than 50% of CBS leagues? I do not think so, no.

Smoke, I give a better chance than Winker. Winker's playing time's been, inconsistent of late and as much as I liked him coming in he's not doing the same things he did last year and that's not just with you know the numbers we the numbers everybody sees but also the underlying numbers that got me so excited about him in the first place yeah but you did predict that he would have 25 home runs yeah and he's not going to yeah he's got but he has 14 the jessie winker and he's been a part

time player. So I think like the power, the ISO is what, 2-11. So at least, at least you got that. There you go. A lot of bullpen stuff yesterday. Edwin Diaz has now had six straight scoreless appearances without the strikeouts that you really like to see, but at least he's solidified that job. Andrew Miller got a save with Carlos Martinez unavailable and also pitching poorly. Brad Hand blew his second save. Roberto O'Zuna blew his fourth save. A roll Chapman blew his fifth save, and he's been struggling lately, a 953 ERA and seven walks in his last six appearances for Chapman. Anything to talk about with Hand, Ozuna, and Chapman, three of the best in fantasy baseball? No, no, I feel fine with them.

Obviously, Chapman did not have control of the strike zone yesterday. He gave up a run and blew the save without allowing a hit. but I'm not that concerned about him you didn't mention him but he's on the graphic here Taylor Rogers has now blown

two saves in his past three appearances great ratios the ratios you want from a closer it feels like he deserves this chance to be a closer but the twins seem to be one of the teams that are pursuing

some of the closers that are available at the trade deadline and Rogers isn't helping his case of keeping the job if they were to acquire like a Shane Green. And I think it's unlikely he'd keep his job anyway because they like him in that versatile multi-inning role. But, you know, obviously the way he's pitched lately doesn't help. Taylor Rogers, okay.

Joachim Soria blew his safe for Oakland with Liam Hendricks on available. And finally, Brandon Workman, 51% owned. He's obviously the favored reliever for Alex Cora. He comes in in the eighth inning in a 5-2 game against Tampa Bay, He works a scoreless eighth, and then they bring him out for another inning, and a lot of times that goes haywire for these relievers, and it did. He struggled. He loaded the bases.

He gave up two runs, so he gave up one, but two were charged to him. But Workman right now is the top reliever for the Red Sox. I think that's pretty clear. Unfortunately, he's now had two bad outings in a row both times pitching more than one inning. Checking in on some players, Scott. I'm going to give you a player. they're sort of on the minds of fantasy owners, or me. Give me a quick thought on

Ahmed Rosario, who before Tuesday had a pretty good strategy of 73 games, actually, with a 791 OPS and nine steals. Ahmed Rosario, 58% owned. Yeah, I just wrote about him on Monday in a mailbag column I did because, you know, somebody was suggesting he was overlooked and undervalued in fantasy.

And it, that just isn't the case. I mean, yeah, he did have a, he did go five for five in steals in June, which was great. But I, you know, entering yesterday's game, he was just one for four in July. So, you know, he's, he's on close to a 2020 pace. I think it's like an 1818 pace.

but it reminds me a lot of that near 20-20 season Freddie Galvies had a few years ago where there's just not enough to go along with the home runs and the steals for him to end up being valuable. And that's before shorts, that became quite as deep as it is. So Rosario just, you know, he's barely top 20 status no matter what format you're looking at,

whether you're breaking it down per game or season long. I mean, it's actually lower per game. Yeah, and the counting stats aren't anything to write home about the runs in the RBIs. Yeah, I mean, he's not batting leadoff anymore because Jeff McNeil's a fixed job up there. So he's batting low in the lineup.

That doesn't help. He's just not, you know, he's young. He's 23. Maybe he gets better. Maybe he has a Josh Bell level breakout next year. Not that he's going to be Josh Bell, but, you know, a similar breakout that's appropriate of the skill set.

But, you know, that's just a blind faith sort of pick. There's not a lot to be encouraged about. It's funny you bring up Josh Bell comparing Ahmed Rosario, because Rosario has the same problem that Bell had, you know, they had other problems, but one common thread, Bell was terrible at home going into this year,

and he's been a beast at home. Rosario has struggled each of the last two seasons at City Field. Manuel Margot, I've been getting a lot of tweets about Manuel Margo, 22% owned. He has started 13 straight games. Margot has batted second in four straight games. He's been on a nice little hot streak here. You know, I'm not buying it.

He's just, he does this every year we talk about, hey, should we pick up Manuel Margo? And then he ends up being exactly what he is in his career, which is a 398 slugging percentage and some steals. So yeah, I'm not into it with Margo, are you? I'm not going to write him off quite to the extent you are. He's six for six and steals during that stretch. And obviously that could, that could boost him to relevance. I mean, the playing time's been inconsistent for him this year, as it's been for all podd outfielders, but it seems to be changing.

He doesn't strike out much. So there's at least a skill set to work with here. You know, in terms of how I actually value him in fantasy, it's not any better than Ahmed Rosario. So it's, you know, I feel like since I talked about them back to back, and it sounds like I'm talking about Margot more favorably. It's more because of expectations versus reality. I think they're about the same place where there's enough speed there to

keep you interested. And there's, you know, this vague idea that there's some untapped potential for both. But they're kind of on the fringes in fantasy. Sure. And Rosario is 58% owned, whereas Margot is 22% owned. So the gap shouldn't be that high. And I do buy that he's going to steal some bases. I just don't buy that he's going to hit. And I don't buy that the Padres will stick with him because we thought it's several times this year, hey, Framo Reyes is playing almost every day. And they just, they don't commit to it unless they make a trade or something at the deadline. All right, Adam Frazier, checking in on him, 24% owned. The first seven games of July, Adam Frazier, was super hot.

He was batting 600 with seven doubles in seven games. Since the All-Star break, though, which came at a bad time for Adam Frazier, he's batting 2.06 with a 265 batting average. So, yeah, Frazier 24% owned. Does that sound okay to you? Yeah, that sounds fine. Not a lot of power, not a lot of speed. Yeah, I wasn't really expecting that hot streak to last.

Nate Lowe, 39% own O for his last 11, low for his last 11, with two walks and five strikeouts. It's been a little hard for Nate Lowe because they've had a lot of lefties lately, and he has sat against three of the last four left-handed starters. But do you still have hope for Nate Lowe? Do you think he's worth stashing? I have some hope for him, sure. I think the average mixed league owner would not be able to justify. stashing a first baseman with playing time issues, who's largely unproven.

It would have to be a deeper league. Finally, Alex Gordon is 85% owned, and he had a big game yesterday, three for four with a home run at Atlanta. Alex Gordon also scored 26 fantasy points last week, but in the 56 games before yesterday, he had a 697 OPS. This is someone that we kept waiting and waiting for him to finally struggle. I don't think Alex Gordon should be 85% owned. I think that's the guy that you drop if you need a two-star pitcher.

If there's a prospect you want to stash, I would drop Alex Gordon for Lewis Robert, for example. I don't buy it, even though he's a top 30 outfielder this year. Yeah, a lot of that coves back to the start of the season when he was on fire. I do think maybe he's valuable in a Nick Marcakechus sort of way now, where, you know, points leagues. okay, you could talk about using him, but points leagues generally are where you start fewer outfielders too.

So it ends up being pretty fringy. When do you think Louis Roberts is coming up? Luis Robert, I think. It may not be this year. In fact, I think it's probably a coin flip, whether or not it's this year. If it is this year, you know, it could be within a couple weeks. But, I mean, after the way the White Sox handed Loy Jimenez

last year who was showing just as clear the signs of him being ready, I don't know why they would take a different approach to Louise Robert, unless Robert, right? Robert. That's how, yes. It's Robert, according to Jim Bowden, yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I'm, you know, it could just, yeah, I don't know.

I don't know. I comparing it to Jimenez last year, you know, I don't think it's a certainty that they call him up at all. But at the same time, the upside is so high that if you have room to stash him, I think you should because he could be honest to goodness game changer down the stretch. Okay, Scott, let's read a few emails to finish the show of Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com from Derek. If you had to put your faith into one guy, would you choose Hosmer or Smoke rest of season? Hosmer or Smoke? Hosmer. I would choose Hosmer.

The upside may be a little less, but it's going to be much more consistent. From Zach, dear, road, top, raccoon, and Balboa. Rocky. Yeah, those are Rockies. I never see Rocky Road ice cream anymore. I just, I feel like it doesn't. Oh, you're not looking hard enough. Really?

You're not looking hard enough. I never see it. It's definitely out there. Like, ice cream places don't have it. Ice cream places, you may be right about that. But in the grocery store, it's definitely there. They should have it. I've been duped a few times into buying Bluebell.

Rocky Road, because I like Bluebell ice cream in general, and I don't have a problem with Rocky Road, but it's just too much, the Bluebell one. They have full mini marshmallows, like actual mini marshmallows that you buy, you know, in a bag, and they're in the ice cream, and it's just like, that's too much marshmallow, you know? Most Rocky Road isn't like that. That sounds like a lot. I was looking over schedules, and I saw something that may be valuable for your listeners. For the next eight weeks, which in many cases is the entire fantasy season, the Rockies play either all of their games at home or all of their games on the road. There are no split home away weeks.

I feel like this could have some strong hit or streaming lineup implications down the stretch. Just wanted to throw it out there. That's pretty cool. I didn't have time to double check. I trust Zach. But yes, that, like, to me, makes it really easy to know what to do with Ryan McMahon, for example. You will never start him in the all road games series or all road game weeks, and you will start him in the all home game weeks, stuff like that.

I don't think David Dahl fits in that category. I think he still starts. But no, it's interesting. It's good to know. From Matt, 12-team Roto Keeper League, Scott. Would you rather keep Eloy Jimenez or Kestanhira? We have about a minute left, Scott. Oh, man.

I hate to throw either of them back if it's a long-term format like that, but I think you've got to go here. From Mitchell, subject line, Bell or Hoskins. Who would you rather have rest of season? And who gets drafted higher next year, Bell or Hoskins? Bell is the answer to both. From George, should I sell Josh Bell for Devers, Harper, or Machado? I think particularly Devers, who I know is now the number one third basement in points leagues,

it's justifiable. It just depends what you need more. I did a trade chart yesterday, and Bell is still the highest ranked of those four players for me. Okay. Thank you to Scott White. We are out of here. We'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy baseball today with some trade talk. And, you know, we'll try to get some regulators in there as well. Thanks for listening. Talk to you Thursday.