Fantasy Baseball Today - 08/09: Finding Next Year's Breakouts; Wed. Recap (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: August 9, 2018

Cody Allen blew another save and David Dahl (3:20) had another good game. We also discuss Luis Severino's encouraging outing (6:10) and Clayton Kershaw's one strikeout (7:35) before telling you about a sneaky pitcher that could be huge for Fantasy owners down the stretch (10:25) ... Looking at three of this year's breakouts (15:55) Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin and Francisco Lindor and trying to figure out who is next. Which stats are we looking at to determine this? Plus we've got "Buy Low or Heck No?" (25:28) with Chris Archer, Jose Quintana and Dee Gordon ... Talking steals sources (27:55), Fantasy playoff formats (31:10) and more from yesterday including more encouraging signs from German Marquez and Trevor Richards (39:05) and our thoughts on more SPs (42:40) like Marco Gonzales and Mike Fiers. We also preview today's matchups (54:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Cody Allen, another blown save another home run aloud. Clayton Kershaw, one strikeout.

What is going on? And Jacob de Grom, he finally got a win. six and seven on the year with a 177 ERA. Those are just some of the things we will be covering today. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. I am Adam Azer, and he is Scott White. Hello, Scott. Hello, Adam.

I was about to introduce myself, like we were anchors of a news program, and I'm Scott White. Oh, that would, yeah. You ever anchored a news program before? Yeah, yeah. And, you know, the college news program. My major was broadcast news, so that was a requisite part of the studies. Yeah, I did that too, and I had to sit on a phone book because the girl I was co-anchoring with was taller than I am, so I had to sit on a phone book. They couldn't spring for adjustable chairs, huh?

I guess not. I guess not. You know, not a lot of money in those colleges. All right, let's get into baseball and some other stuff. Oh, yeah, so one of the cool things I want to do today is I want to look at three breakout. players. Jacob de Grom, it's a breakout player. I mean, I know he's been great before, but he's breaking out. Francisco Lindor, top four hitter, fourth and roto, second and points. He's a breakout. He was a second round pick. He's going to be a first round pick. Patrick Corbyn, having a breakout year. Let's talk about what they've done and who's next, who might follow in their footsteps, what can we look for, what types of signs can we look for? But first,

I don't know that there's much analysis here. Nobody's going to drop Cody Allen, but there's definitely a possibility at this point that he gets, I don't know, weaned off the closer roll. I thought it was already happening. Yeah, we got the same chance yesterday and he blew it. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. And Hand was facing Mauer and Eddie Rosario were due up in the ninth, which are, of course, two of the left-handed hitters the twins have. So clearly there's an element of playing the matchups here.

So that contributed to it, I'm sure. But, yeah, it just Cody Allen hasn't been very reliable, and they have a couple of other really good options. Yeah. All right, so that's that. Any Wednesday standouts for you, Scott White? Well, it was a big day for both of the Calhouns. Willie had a couple doubles.

Cole, another home run. Willie only has one home run during his time up with the Rangers in 60 at bats, but the strikeouts have been low as they were throughout his minor league career. And the batting averages inching up there. There's still a chance. There's still a chance. He makes an impact in mixed leagues to close out the season. There's a chance David Dahl does too.

He started three straight games now, I believe. Yeah. And he homered yesterday after really discouraging stint in the minor. coming off injury, but we know there's a lot of potential there, and it's obviously a good environment for him if he gets the abats. Yeah, David Dahl, four games since being recalled. He's four for 12 with a home run and a steel. Two walks, two strikeouts. So far, so good. Carlos Gonzalez ended up sitting yesterday, so they've kind of rotated. They gave Blackman a day off, and I think Parra must have had a day.

Now, Gonzales, and it was Chris Archer on the mount. It wasn't a lefty. So it's probably probably just a day off for cargo. He deserves to be in there more than Dahl, but hopefully it's Parra that gets the short end of the stick. And David Dahl is owned in 32% of league. So, you know, I didn't even take a look to see if he was available in my Roto League. I made it, I made an ad drop in a Roto League yesterday. We have fab twice a week, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Actually, don't even know if it went through. Let's see if I got him. Let's see. Oh, David Dahl was a free agent. He went for eight bucks. I wouldn't have put that much on him.

Yes. What kind of league is it? You know, it's a fine bid because it's a $250 $50 budget is just a matter of how much you have at this point. It's a pretty deep 13-team Roto League for David Dahl. Okay. I went $2 on Randall Gritchick, and I got him. And Gritchick-Homered yesterday. He let off. I haven't checked where he's been hitting in the lineup, but he's one of their best hitters at this point.

His strikeouts have been lower. Look, I don't have high hopes. It's a 13-team Roto League, but I did pick up Randall Gritchick. And I, you know what I did? Scott? What you do? Dropped Michael Conforto. And I just can't.

I got a win, man. I got a win right now. Season's slipping away. I'm in second place in that league. I got to get first. I feel like... I can't wait on Conforto anymore. Comforto's trending up, though.

No, he is... He was... I mean, he had a good game yesterday. Finally, he scored his first runs, and I think 11 games. He has been terrible lately. Well, last 22 games, 299 with a 908 OBS. Last 11 games, what? He's terrible.

Terrible. 11 games. That's very specific. Well, that's why I saw he had scored three runs yesterday. I think those are the only three runs he scored in 11 games. I just can't wait anymore on Conforto. He's hit 256. It's, you know, whatever.

It's 11 games. With any extra base hits? Look at 22 games, Adam. That is the non-arbitrary sample side. What's the opposite of arbitrary? Arbitration. But that doesn't really work. I don't know.

All right, so the Calhoun stood out. Yeah. And David Dahl stood out. And Cody Allen stood out. A lot of standouts, really. I'm sure you have more in the notes. You know I do. Luis Severino, 18 swinging strikes.

You know, he gave up two runs in the first inning. He didn't look very good. He threw a pretty flat slider that got hit hard. And I already had scripted out what we were going to talk about with Luis Severino. And then everything changed. And he ended up with a really good start. And the White Sox are real, I mean, this is a great matchup. They're really bad.

They strike out a ton. Lance Lin, Cecee Sabathia, now Luis Severino, dominated the White Sox. It was seven innings. It was three runs, two in the first, no walks, eight strikeouts, and 18 swinging strikes. And, you know, I had mentioned that his slider hadn't been very good. And after the game, he said he's been working on it with Larry Rothschild, the pitching coach, and got some dividends last night. The question is, is he?

fixed or just just the white socks for severino? I mean, it's just the white socks. Those people who picked up Lance Lennar in for a letdown. That's, I mean, you know, who knows? Who knows? I wasn't really worried about Severino. I think after this start, even though it was against the white socks. And that was the only reason I was willing to start it this time out.

It's bad as it's been recently. But I'm going to start him next time. It's enough reason for me to hope he's back. All right. And the other ace that we need to check in on, that's Severino, who, by the way, is set up for two starts against the Mets and the Blue Jays next week. Clayton Kershaw said he didn't really have anything last night. He was just kind of, you know, he couldn't put anybody away.

That's what he said. Yep, one strikeout. One strikeout. Four swinging strikes in 97 pitches, six innings of two run ball. ERA is still really good. He's pitching fine, but one strikeout. And, you know, he had had a 13% swinging strike rate in four starts before yesterday, which is good. But still, you know, we're not seeing vintage Kershaw.

What do you think about this start from Kershaw? Yeah, in terms of the strikeouts, I'm not, you know, I'm just going to chalk it up as a fluke. his velocity, at least according to Brooks baseball, was about what it's been all season, which is a couple miles per hour down from last season, and that was down a little from the season before. So he looks like he's in the decline phase of his career, but I think there's still plenty left in the tank. He's still a top 10 pitcher for me in fantasy.

Clayton Kirshah, all right, I think I asked you this. Last time I asked it again. Kershaw or Sindergarde? I prefer Kershaw. All righty. Scott, I prefer listening to a lot of podcasts. I know a lot of the podcast listeners out there. You really, you listen to a lot.

And I don't know how you do it. There aren't that many hours in the day, but I appreciate it. It's awesome. CBS Sports is basically a great hub for podcasting. Name a sport, we more or less have it. Not everything, but we got a lot of podcasts for you. We've got a football podcast called Pick Six. We've got an MMA wrestling boxing podcast.

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Getting amazing feedback. You are going to absolutely love it. People have worked really hard to make a great sports network. It's kind of a throwback to the old days of sports coverage and check it out. All right, Scott, you know, here's a question. I think that could have a big impact on fantasy down the road. And pretty soon, too. Who moves into the Houston Astros rotation to fill in for Lance McCullors? I got my fingers crossed.

I would love to see Brad Peacock in that role. Yeah, I mean, Brad Peacock was obviously an effective starter for the Astros last year. Colin McHugh has had a few years of being an effective starter for them. I think both need to be owned because either one could be a big find in fantasy down the stretch but the Astros really haven't tipped their hand here as to which it is

and there's a chance it could be neither as a chance they go with somebody from the miners you know it's not like they would be getting stretched out on the fly if they did turn to one of them because they both Peacock and McHugh have been a bullpen all year. Yeah, that's true.

Yeah, the reason I'm hoping for him is as a starter last year, he had a 322 ERA. He struck out 135 batters and 111 and 2 thirds. But he did walk 46. And last year he also had a – he walked about four and a half per nine as a reliever. But this year, 12 walks and 48 and 2 thirds as a reliever with 70 strikeouts. maybe he's got to control down. And if Peacock has better control, he could be an ace.

He could be amazing. I don't know if I should say he could be an ace or else. Even last year, it was a 307 FIPP he had as primarily a starter. Yeah, he could be great. You may remember when they traded for Garrett Cole, I actually was somber over that news because of what it meant for Brad Peacock. I was really excited about him before that happened, had him, I think he's a top. top 30 starting pitcher in my rankings. So I could totally understand you being hopeful of that switch.

They could go in a few different directions here. A couple of injured sluggers. One of them used to be a slugger anyway. Joey Votto. He's missed three of his last four games with a knee injury, and he should be back tomorrow. Mike Trout could be back tomorrow. If you've been holding on to you, Darvish, good news.

He had an encouraging bullpen session. He was throwing about 93 miles per hour. he could have another bullpen session and then go on a rehab assignment and maybe be ready just in time for the postseason. No, maybe you get a few starts in September out of... I spent so long since he's pitched. I feel like it's going to be a long rehab assignment. I hope not. I'm hoping to get three or four starts out of Darvish to end the year, but fingers crossed.

Ben Zobris is day-to-day. Junjin Ryu is nearing a return. Oh, boy. I got my fingers crossed that Kent and Maeda doesn't get destroyed at Colorado this weekend. Because, you know, you look at his VIP and Maeda, I told you, I called him a by-low yesterday. He's having a better year than the numbers would indicate. But he's got this Colorado start, and then he's got Ryu. Stripling can't be too far away.

I don't know what his deal is. Wood threw a little bit yesterday. So Dodgers rotation is going to be a mess. Felix Hernandez could be removed from the Seattle rotation. Calvin Herrera is on the DL with a rotator cuff and pinchment. Ryan Madsen will fill in as closer for the nationals. It may not be a long stay for Kelvin Herrera. Brandon Nimmo, going to keep an eye on him.

He has four doubles in his last three games, and he has four walks in August. Here's a dumb stat. Yovani Gallardo leads baseball with seven wins since June 23rd. That's dumb. Dumb. Scott, according to the AP recap, Fran Mill Reyes, hit a, quote, scorching liner, end quote, that was caught by Chasin, I believe. But he hit a scorching liner, and I want to say hashtag no leg kick.

Proframo Reyes. There you go. Get it renting. More progress. Nomar Mazar is going to begin a rehab assignment today. And the twins, I don't know if you saw this little nugget, the twins could go all raise on us and start using relievers as openers. that happened the other day didn't it

oh i don't know i may have missed that um it happens somewhere you know what i made me thinking of the blue jays the blue jays did it with tyler clippard they did yeah that's probably what i'm thinking of yeah yeah i'm still not uh still don't know that this strategy has legs yeah still don't i still don't really

understand why you would want to limit your options in the later innings like that. Like the whole, you know, can't have a fixed closer movement is about expanding your options in the late innings, right? Having more weapons at your disposal to use situationally and whatnot. And if you're burning one of those relievers that you'd potentially use in those scenarios, then you're right back to limiting your options. So I don't really understand it.

Yeah, it's worked for the race. but I don't think it's going to be ideal. I don't think it's going to work for teams that have rotations that they really believe in. We'll see. All right, here we go, Scott. Let's talk about some of these 2018 breakouts and who's next. Jacob de Grombe. He's incredible.

He needs to win the Sall-Yong, unless he really melts. But I don't care about the record. I don't care about how bad the Mets are. 177 ERA. Great strikeout rate. 0.96 whip. just amazing year. And in 2017, his velocity increased.

The homers were much higher. His home run to fly ball ratio was way up, but he had a very small increase in fly ball rate and an even smaller increase in hard contact rate. So it didn't really make sense. DeGrom also had a career-high swinging strike rate last year, and he's bested that this year. Are you surprised by this breakout?

I'm not totally surprised. I mean, everybody's a little surprised at a 170-R-A, right? I mean, nobody can be that good except maybe Kershaw. But I'm not that surprised that DeGrom has made the jump. I didn't think the innings would be there. Maybe that has been surprising. Well, health had been an issue for him for the last few years, right? And, yeah, I'm surprised that he's going.

You know, he went from basically a pitcher whose FIP was in the low to mid-3s to 220 FIPP this year. and a lot of it has to do with the home runs actually a lot of it does and that's worth checking on the ground ball rate to see if anything's changed there or if possibly he's having good home run luck you know yeah he might be ground ball wise

it's pretty much the same as always just the home run to fly ball rate is way down as low as it was during his rookie season so that's interesting now I don't think the Cy Young thing even apart from win-loss record, there's an argument to be made for Scherzer instead. Scherzer leads the NL and innings, strikeouts, whip, K-per-9, hit-per-9. A lot of the categories other than ERA.

But it's a two-horse race, I would say. Yeah, I mean, Scherzer's pretty damn good. DeGrom's having a special season. So who could be next? There's a guy that's not doing it this year, but he did similar things to DeGrom. year. He had a higher K rate, a career high K rate. He had always been a high whip guy. And DeGrom actually had been kind of a higher whip guy than you might think. But the strikeouts were up. I think the home runs really were his problem last year, and that is actually the case.

He gave up 27 of them. And that's Carlos Martinez. It's not going to happen this year, but I'm not giving up on Martinez jumping into the next tier. This guy, I don't think he could ever be as good as the Grom this year because the walks are just too high, but I think there's another level for Carlos Martinez personally. Maybe it's like top 10 instead of top five. But do you think there's anybody that comes to mind that could be next year's DeGrom? Hmm. I mean, Paxton is in that conversation, I think. You know, we're talking about pitchers who are already good like DeGrom was and taking another step forward. Uh, yeah, I, I really think, I think Paxton's probably, I mean, there are, I suppose there's a chance Patrick Corbyn gets even better.

It's hard to envision Snell or Aaron Nola getting better. Who else is in that next, kind of that second tier? I was always waiting for Carasco, and I suppose, like, I would need to see a little bit more velocity from Carasco. and fewer bad blow-up starts. And maybe it's a home run problem for him. He has been awesome lately. He's kind of turned things around where it's just like the peripherals are so good.

Peripherals are so good, but the fastball is not good enough, and I don't know, maybe that's not going to change for Carasco. And he's 31, so. But the Grom's 32 before the start of the season. The Grom's 30 or 31. He's, he turned 30 this year. He's a couple years younger than Carasco. Yeah, maybe, I guess Garrett Cole is also a guy like that.

I feel like that already happened for Garrett Cole this year. Yep. All right. And then Corbyn himself was in this category. And here's something to keep in mind with Corbyn. His last 20 games of 2017, 20 games, 19 starts, Salada innings, 117 and 2 thirds. He had a strikeout per inning.

He had a 321 ERA. 9 and 7 record, 321 ERA. Always a good ground ball rate, but kind of a high whip because of the ground balls. The swinging strikes, I mean, Corbyn confuses me, Scott, because his velocity's been down. His curveball is so good, or it's a slider. I think it's his curve ball. So good, and his strikeouts are so good, 183 and 148 and 2 thirds. Yeah, it's classified as a slider.

Okay, slider. Usually. But it is. I mean, he's made it his primary pitch this year. and that's what's been the change for him. Even as he's lost velocity on the fastball, I'm not so sure that isn't intentional, the velocity dropping on the fastball.

If it's your secondary pitch, you don't need to go all out with it. Yeah, so just keep in mind, like sometimes the last 15 starts he did this or last 40 games this hitter did this means nothing, but sometimes it can really tell you something. Corbyn was a total steal in drafts this year. You know somebody to watch, and it's easier to suggest breakouts from pitchers who aren't already pitching at an ace level.

But I could see John Gray taking a huge leave next year. That's somebody who's going to, you know, provide it in the rest of this season goes well. Oh. Oh. Be on my short list of pitchers to draft. Armand Marquez. I love Armand Marquez. Yeah.

He is the Armand. Oh, I love him. We'll talk about him a little bit later. He's like less than 50% on. The other guy, last 40 games, he had a 1057 OPS. That was last year. His last 40 games, 1057 OPS. First 119 games, he looked like a bust.

He was battings. He had a 772 OPS. He had 19 homers and eight steals and 119 games. And then the last 40 games, he was one of the best hitters in baseball. And now he is clearly one of the best hitters in baseball. Francisco Lindor, walk-off three-run Homer. And last year, Lindor's hard contact rate went up and his fly ball rate went way up.

And I did find one player who actually fits that profile, and it's Gregory Polanco. His hard contact rate and his fly ball rate are way up. He's going to probably finish the year with a last 60 games kind of stretch where we can say he had this OPS. I think there's a chance that Polanco is not going to be a top five hitter. he's not good enough against lefties, but could be a top five round type of hitter, certainly, and fantasy stalwart. Yeah.

Yeah, this second half has been the strongest indications of a breakout that we've seen from him in a couple years. The first half of 2016 was great also, but he's still young enough of 26, that it's reasonable to think he hasn't put it all together yet. We've kind of been hoping for that for a while from him. And speaking of Francisco Lendor, if we were drafting today for 2019, I think he'd be the fourth player off the board after Trout Betts and his teammate Jose Ramirez.

And Stanton. Stanton. Get out of here. Yeah, you know, I was thinking about that. And I don't disagree, but let's not sell Jose Al-Tubei short. he's like guaranteed elite batting average he's basically been a base dealer since the start of the like he was 2030 right

you know i mean i got no beef with him among first rounders who've underachieved this year and i'm trying to think of how many there are i guess black men you could say has a little stanton of course harper yeah yeah it's true um

but al tufei the one who I give the most benefit of the doubt, too. He would probably be fifth for me. Yeah. And with all of those guys, you are getting a good mix of power and speed. I do wonder about Trout. I want to see how many

bases Trout steals the rest of season because this is the second two out of three or something like that, where he has hurt himself sliding head first into a base. All right, those players are amazing. We're trying to find the next ones. And that's a fun

discussion. Buy low or heck no. I know it's kind of late, but we're still getting a lot of grade the trades. So I think it's still worth talking about some trade candidates. Yeah, I mean, judging by a poll I had on Twitter, only about a quarter of my followers leagues have had their trade deadline yet. So by lower heck no, on Chris Archer, who gave up two runs and five innings with three strikeouts.

And he had been dealing with food poisoning on Tuesday, and he had a pretty good start at Colorado, but not a great start. only 3Ks. Buy low or heck no on Chris Archer? I'm inclined to buy low, depending on how low it is, of course. He is still a top 30 starting pitcher for me. Okay. How about Jose Cantana?

Five runs at Kansas City. He had only allowed 2 through 6. Then he came out and pitched the 7th, gave up three more runs, and has Milwaukee at home next week. Jose Cantana, buy low or heck no? Heck no. To Jose Cantana. He's another pitcher who's another one of those Cubs pitchers

whose skills appear to have diminished, and Joe Madden's not letting him pitch innings, which is a big part of what carried him during his White Sox years. All right, so heck no on Jose Cantana. Would you rather have Jose Cantana or John Gray? I'd rather have, I think they're pretty close in my rankings. I'd rather have Kintana. Okay.

Buy low or heck no on D. Gordon. Even for D. Gordon is not walking a lot. 1.5% walk rate, his career low, and he has a 323 Babbat, which is high for a lot of people, but it's actually pretty low for D. Gordon. Buy lower heck no on Gordon, Scott. And one last stat. His last four seasons, if you look at like as 160 game pace, basically 60 steals pretty much every year. He's got 26 deals in 103 games, so not good enough. Yeah, I mean, I don't know why the Mariners would trade for him not to have him run.

And I don't know, maybe it's his decision why he's not doing that. But it's disappointing for a number of reasons. I want it by low on him expecting things to get better. but of course if you need to make up ground in steals even with even with him not living up to expectations in that category he's still one of the better bets

to help you make up ground there oh let's segue into a segment called Need Some Steals with a question mark I got three guys that are stealing bases lately Ahmed Rosario has five steals in six attempts since the All-Star break Adaberto Mondesi has seven steals in his last 14 games,

but only one home run. It was yesterday. Basically, he was doing nothing but stealing. No walks, 14 strikeouts. And then there's Malik Smith, who's actually batting 4.50 in August, and he has seven steals in August. Malik Smith is running like a madman. Six walks, two strikeouts,

4.50 batting average in August with seven steals in seven attempts. Rosario, 26 percent own. Mondesi, 29% owned, Malik Smith, 43% owned. Yeah, the one who's going to be the most useful with the bad, I think, is Malick Smith. And it's good timing for him to kind of pick up the pace here. Now that Austin Meadows is in the race organization, because I feel like Malick Smith would be the one to get bumped for him, were that change to happen. But right now, I'd be happy to roster him, start him. It's one of my five outfielders and hopefully rack up some steals.

And I got to tell you, I mean, Scott and I really were kind of pushing for Kevin Kiramire, not in every league, but in the right format, he's just been awful. And he was so bad that he was like, take me out of the lead-off spot, put someone else there because I'm not getting – he was like, I'm not getting the job done. So he's been bad, and Smith led off yesterday. Again, I haven't checked how much he's been leading off, but it ain't Kevin Kiermeyer anymore. And, you know, I know a lot of you don't go to raise games because nobody goes to raise games. But there are other more exciting events to go to this summer and into the fall.

I mean, we got football season right around the corner. There are always good concerts this time of year. Of course, there's obviously baseball. We can get you there with the secret. The SeekyK app is amazing. I use it all the time. Whenever I'm looking for tickets, I'm currently looking for tickets for a football game in October, monitoring it just about every day on the Seekek app to see if the prices are going to drop.

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And then you're going to go and you're going to tell all your friends about it because Seekek is so much better, more efficient, better prices. You're going to love it. Use the code fantasy for 20 bucks off. We're going to take a little bit of a break from yesterday's action and talk big picture fantasy stuff. Email of the day number one is from Robert from Fullerton, California. Dear, one game playoff, best of five, and best of seven.

What are your thoughts on two-week fantasy playoffs? My league just switched to them, but for every round. If you do like a two-week playoff, do you like it for every round, just the championship round or some variation of the two. I like the two-week playoff, and that's something I've been doing in my leagues for a few years. The idea is that if you feel like the outcome of the playoffs is too random compared to the regular season,

it kind of waters, it kind of reduces that. It's over a longer stretch of time, there are going to be fewer flukes that influenced the result there. So I like it. There really isn't a lot of downside to it other than it being a little more work for the commissioner. When I implement them, it's still you set your lineup every week. And it's just the stats from the first week carryover in the second. So that's why it's more work for the commissioner.

But you still set your lineups every week. So it's not like there's a risk of, you know, losing a guy to injury at the start of a two-week period and then going that long without her replacement. Right. Yeah. So that's... I like it. I do, too, and two-week playoffs are great.

Now, I told you guys about a league that I'm the commissioner of where the playoffs have already started and the season will end the first week of September. I don't really like September baseball very much, and I don't mind ending a league early. But I can't do two-week playoffs in that format. Six teams make the playoffs. There are three rounds of playoffs. The first two rounds are one week. The championship round is two weeks. On the other hand, the podcast points league goes all the way to the end of the year,

and the three-week playoffs, they're all two-week rounds. Yeah, I think that's better. I mean, it's just eliminating luck all the way. I hate that. Or reducing luck all the way through. I hate the last two weeks. The last week of baseball, the last two weeks baseball suck for fantasy purposes. I think my favorite format, if I were going to do it again, I won't do it in the podcast,

leave. We have too much tradition. But if I were going to start a league, I would end it two weeks before the end of the season. I would start the postseason two weeks earlier. I would do exactly what we're doing with the podcast league. Three rounds of playoffs, two weeks each. But I would just begin it two weeks earlier and end our fantasy season two weeks before the end of the actual baseball season. I think two weeks.

I don't think you need to go do two weeks. Like I can understand eliminating the last week. But I don't feel like the second to last week there's that many. you know, three-innings starts happening. That's the main worry, I feel like, is the teams that are obviously destined for the playoffs. They leave their starting pitcher out there for just two or three innings, just to give him some work, but to realign him for how they want the rotation to be in the postseason. Like, those are the most, those are the worst things that happened during that time.

You know, non-contenders or teams that are still fighting for playoff positioning, they just run their guys out there like normal. Email of the day number two is from T.J. T.J says, I was listening to your discussion on Roto versus head-to-head. Two points. One, Roto has to be for money with a tiered payout system slash payment system in order to keep people involved. Our league is four teams get money in varying amounts and eight teams pay in varying amounts.

Two, Roto just takes far more skill. In my experience, whoever had more starts that week wins a majority of the head-to-head leagues. Well, maybe you need to tweak the rules. Because that's not my experience. Yeah, it's not true. That's a myth. Especially now with all these days off, there aren't as many two-star pitchers. I think that's a myth.

But I do agree with the first point about if you're going to do a Roto League, you have to have a tiered payout system. You have to have enough spots that have something at stake. That said, there's no way, unless you're paying out like eight people, there's no way you're going to have as many people competing for a long time in a Roto League as you are in a head-to-head league, you know, up until the playoffs. It's just like, I'm in that's 13-team Roto League. I think like four people are competing at this point.

Yeah. So just kind of the fact there. Yeah, Roto, does Roto take more skill? Roto definitely awards the best team more so than a head-to-head points league or head-to-head categories league. There's no playoffs. There's no random chance, no bad week. Yeah.

Roto does that. Roto does do that. But, yeah, I think we'll just leave it at that. Okay. There is more of an element of luck in head-to-head leagues than there is in Roto. That's fair to say. Is it an unwanted variable of luck? I don't know that it is.

I don't know that it is. I find it's more exciting to watch your matchup play out over the course of the week than to see what. it's usually very little movement in the roto rankings at this stage of the season. That's, I don't know, I find it more rewarding. But for the most part, I believe that luck is, is, you know, the better games, just speaking in the context of all games, not just fantasy sports. The better games are the ones that reward the participants' decisions and have less luck involved. I just don't know that zero luck or, I don't know.

I think there's a point where some luck is helpful to the game. Yeah, it makes it a little more fun. Like, you've got great fantasy football stories. Oh, man, I had this amazing season, and then week 16, this thing has, like, that's kind of frustrating. At the same time, it's kind of the fun of fantasy. A little bit of the thrill. In the bullpen, Michael Gibbons got a save yesterday. He's 16% owned.

He has two saves in 4%. days for the Orioles. Having a bad year, but usually a pretty good pitcher, Michael Givens. He has a funky spelling of his first name. M.Y. C.H. I think it's just E.L, but it might be AEL. But it's M.Y. for sure. So if you're looking for him, keep that in mind. Are you looking to add any of these players? Mark Trumbo, who is batting 417 with four home runs in August. Mike Zanino, 52% owned. And Isaiah Kiner Folefa, 25% owned. Yeah, kind of Falafas has been playing a lot

And it's at the expense of Robinson Chorinos Who I think is a better hitter So I don't know that it's necessarily good news But he's been playing enough And performing well enough at catcher That I feel like in two catcher leagues He deserves some attention

Trumbo Of course is just a couple years removed From a 50 homer season And is is on what would be about a 30 homer pace if he hadn't missed April this season, like if we were extending it over 150 games or whatever. So there's some, there's the chance he's useful in five outfields, rotisserie leagues for helping that category.

And Kinafalefa is the number nine catcher and points, number seven in Roto over the last 21 days. he has split the last six games with Chorinos. They've each started three. Prior to that, Chorinos had started six of the last seven, and kind of for Leffa played third base twice. So it seems like they play him kind of every other day. All right, Scott, do we have a breakout here? Two pitchers that are showing some signs.

Erman Marquez, he's actually 57% owed. He struck out 10 pirates in six innings. He gave up 10 hits. Three runs, two walks, 10 strikeouts, 20 swinging, strikes and now has 139 strikeouts in 128 and 2 thirds and three straight quality starts at home. He'll be on the road at Houston and at Atlanta next week. This is Armand Marquez. And Trevor Richards, 22% owned.

Last five starts 153 ERA, 32 strikeouts to nine walks in 29 and the third. And a lot of fly balls and a pretty good swinging strike rate. Armand Marquez, Trevor Richards. Do we have a breakout here? This is, when I talk about swinging strikes a lot. and the impact they can have a pitcher. I think we're seeing it play out pretty definitively with these two pictures. Hermann Marquez's last seven starts have all been double-digit swinging strikes versus only five of his first 16.

So last seven, all double digits, only five of his first 16. and it's clear when the turning point happened for him in terms of ERA. Same thing for Trevor Richards. It's five starts in a row with double-digit swinging strikes versus just four of his first 12. So I would say if whatever's contributing to the uptick and swinging strikes continues, then the success for the most part will continue too. For Richards, I know it's mostly been the change-up for Marquez. he's always been regarded as having a pretty good curveball.

And really, I mean, Marquez's been great on the road all year. Yeah, he's been great on the road, and Marquez is like a flame thrower, basically. He throws really hard. I think he's got good stuff, and I'd love to see him get out of Colorado. That's not going to happen. I trust them on the road. At Houston and at Atlanta is not the easiest matchups, but Houston won't have George Springer, and we don't know if they'll have Al Tuve.

I'm going to start him next week, certainly in a two-start week. I'll have a decision to make about him in a one-start week. but I think Marquez has earned it on the road no matter what the matchup is I mean he had a great start at the Brewers not too long ago But of those seven three of them were at home Right like there's been three good ones in a row at home

Do you trust them at home This wasn't a great start I mean gave up 10 hits and three runs and six innings Yeah but It was a quality star It was mostly just the hits And like among things a pitcher can allow You know I

I am much more concerned with home runs walks and strikeouts than hits. So I'm chalking up as a good home start for him. I think he gave up three doubles. No homers, right, for Marquez yesterday? I don't believe so. Yeah, I don't think so. And what, 10 strike against no walks?

Two walks. Two walks? Okay. It's a good start, I think. I mean, it's two road starts next week. So it's going to be a while before we have to consider him at home. If he was making two home starts next week, I would absolutely start him. in that hypothetical scenario.

Okay. Richards, I mean, Richards is only 22% owned, so he's, you know, even more on the periphery and fantasy. And he doesn't have, like,

a great pedigree or, you know, he's not, he doesn't have the big fastball that Hermann Marquez has. So I'm, he's a little more of a curiosity at this point, but five starts in a row.

I mean, you definitely, you definitely have to, uh, consider him at this point. I got a lot to say about Marco Gonzalez, so let's get to the rotation, four-man rotation from yesterday. Mike Fultenevich had a pretty good start, five and two-thirds, three runs, but one earned,

two walks and seven strikeouts at the Nationals. Marco Gonzalez had a terrible start. Five innings, 12 hits, seven runs, no walks, three strikeouts, two homers allowed at Texas. Vince Velasquez had a terrible start. Four innings, four runs, two strikeouts at Arizona, and he gets to. Boston and the Mets next week. And Yolese Chasine was good enough. Six innings, three runs, three strikeouts against San Diego.

You got your quality start. I think you got your win. He has two quality starts in his last six starts, and he's at the Cubs next week, and Chasine is 82% owned. These guys are all owned in 82% of leagues or more. How would you rank? Fultenevich, Gonzales, Velazquez, and Chassine. Chasin's a distant fourth.

I would rank the other three. I would go Gonzalez Fultenevich and then Velasquez They're pretty close though They're within a range of 15 pitchers So Gonzalez

Fultenevich and Velazquez In that order And they're all pretty close And do you think they're must-start guys Or do you play the matchups with them? I play the matchups Okay If you're getting a deep enough league

Like 15 team league I'm sure they would be must start I had basically been approaching Marco Gonzalez as a must-start pitcher because there wasn't a lot in the underlying stats that suggested what he was doing was due for any kind of correction. But obviously, this was an awful, awful start. Well, I'll tell you what happened. I have a lot to say about Marco Gonzalez. Are you ready?

Go for it. Okay. Well, he's a fly ball pitcher. And first of all, the Rangers... No, he's not a fly ball pitcher. He's a ground ball pitcher. Oh, he's a ground ball. I was just looking at it, too, to confirm.

and I read the wrong thing. All right, well, honestly, that doesn't matter. The Rangers have been very good lately. They have scored seven or more runs in seven of their last 12 games. So this was not an easy matchup. He has now made four starts in Hitter's Parks this year. That's not a lot. And he's been terrible in three of them.

Now, two of them were the Yankees and the Red Sox. At the Yankees at the Red Sox, back-to-back starts, 11 run runs in 12 and a third. Earlier this year, six scoreless innings at the White Sox, Hitters Park, but, you know, Do we consider the Indians to have a hitters park or more neutral? I would consider it more of a hitter's park, yeah. He had a good start earlier the year against the Indians, but I believe that was when they weren't really hitting that well.

So I don't, I mean, okay, he is a groundball pitcher that does have to factor in a little bit, but four starts and hitters parks, three of them have been terrible. The good news is he pitches in Seattle, and that's great. and the Rangers are a tough, tough matchup right now. They are a buzzsaw. So, yeah, it's stunk. It sucked, but I'm going to roll them back out there next week at Oakland and home against the Dodgers. Oh, yeah, two starts, absolutely.

And two starts at pitchers parks. Right. And the Dodgers, you know, they aren't good against lefties, but that was before Machado and Dozier. I don't know how they've been since adding Machado and Dozier. But, yeah, I'm willing to give more credit to the Rangers than blame to Gonzalez. At the same time, I was always slightly concerned

because it seemed like it was a little bit too good to be true. It's not like he has amazing stuff, in my opinion. He doesn't have amazing stuff, but he has amazing control and groundball tendencies, and it's not like it was a low BAPIP that was driving the production. So I still feel good about him. Fringy starting pitchers,

do you feel good about Mike Fires or Jaime Borea? Mike Fires or Jaime Borea? I don't find much to like about Jaime Berea. Even when he pitches well, it's usually a few strikeouts, and he's not even going six innings at a time. So there's not a lot to like there, I don't think. But Mike Fires has been better than I think he's gotten credit for, obviously spent the majority of this season with the Tigers who aren't any good.

But good debut for Oakland, and now in his last eight starts a 193 ERA. The strikeouts, like, we've seen good Mike fires in the past, and when he's been good, there's been a lot of strikeouts, and that hasn't been true this year. So there's, I'm still skeptical, but I do think he's useful in a streaming sort of way. Doesn't it?

And this has food you written all over it. Yeah. Right? I mean, I can't argue it. Yeah. And then in deep leagues, Charlie Colberson has homered in his last three starts, which is over a stretch of six games for the Braves, Charlie Colberson. And Heath Philmire has a 313 ERA. I'm going to assume you have very little interest.

It may be no interest in either Charlie Colberson or Heath Fillier. Yeah, I don't. I would say I'd rather see Charlie Colbertson start than Danesby Swanson at this point. I think if Culverson were to get full-time at bad C'd be more useful in fantasy. But I don't have much hope of that happening. Let's read some emails and then we'll do today's matchups. This is from Brian and Brooklyn. Is it okay to drop Gary Sanchez in my 12-team points league?

I just traded away Brandon Morrow for Yasimani Grandaul, and I don't imagine ever benching Granda. So is it okay to drop Gary Sanchez? No, I wouldn't do that. On a per-game basis, he's actually been better than Grandal this year, even though he has a sub-200 batting average, which tells you a little something about what the upside looks like when he does return. It'll be, he said it's a head-to-head league, right?

Yeah. So, you know, you'll be right on the verge of the playoffs, if not in the playoffs by the time he returns. I don't know. Like, I guess I can understand, because obviously there won't be a chance to trade Grandal to somebody else when that happens. That would be the ideal. And I'm assuming he's already tried shopping Sanchez now and not gotten any takers. If you just have to, if you don't have a DL spot where you can stash him and you have to use this bench on the spot on a second catcher, that's obviously not ideal.

So maybe it'll force your hand, but it'll play into somebody else's hand because there's a good chance. because there's a good chance Gary Sanchez is beating you come playoff time. Okay, next email is from Nick. He says, hey, Robbie, Rafi, and Cal. Robbie, Raffi. I think I know who that is. Are those, is that like Orioles in fields in the mid-90s? All David Doll does is hit when he's up.

Would you drop, I disagree with that, by the way. Would you drop Matt Olson, D. Gordon, Mitch Hanigur, or Yohan Moncada for David Dole. Olson, Gordon, Hanigur, and Moncada for doll. Yeah, I drop Monkata in a second. Oh, I want to... Well, I don't have any... I guess I don't have any qualms if you decide to do that

because I don't know that Monkata is somebody you'll miss greatly, but I feel like I feel like the playing time's more sure there and the upside is just as high, so I wouldn't drop doll for any of them. I want to drop any of them for dolls.

I'm not sure it's happening this year for Moncada. Yeah. He can move D. Gordon from outfield to second base and pick up another outfit. I'd be looking at somebody in getting rid of Mankata. All right. Here's an email from Freddie from Washington. And he says, hey, Hank Aaron. We're Aaron Hank.

Fighting to make the playoffs, I need to make a drastic decision in the Categories League. My bench is loaded with only two DL slots. Sale, McCullors, Darvish, Donaldson, and Ramos. Who do I cut? I need to add a streaking hitter. Okay, you're not cutting sale. I'll be back this weekend. So he has only two DL slots.

McCullors, Darvish, Donaldson, and Ramos. Who do you cut? Who do you keep out of those four? I would... McCullors, out of here. I would drop two of them. McCullors would be the one. Yeah, I'm not sure we're going to see any starts from him

the rest of this season because you've got to figure he'll be coming out of the bullpour. in the postseason. By the time he's healthy again, I'm not sure there's going to be much incentive to stretch him out. And I definitely wouldn't cover Ramos because he's pretty close to returning to.

So it's between Darvish and who's the other one? Donaldson, who are both looking at lengthy rehabilitation, I think. I think Darvish has the better chance of being an impactful player when he does return, though. So I would say drop

McCullors easily and Donaldson with some has a lot. email from Nick. Can we give David Peralta some love? Is Peralta being overlooked a little, or is his value more catered to my league, which is a 12-team Categories League? And I'm not sure if it's daily or not. Three out-filters are five. Daily or not.

Yeah. He's pretty close to a must-start what he's healthy, I would say. David Dahl. No, Peralta. I'm sorry, David Peralta. Yeah. One of the highest hard contact rates in baseball, the fun. My ball percentage is low, but it hasn't impacted his power.

It's low in how it usually has been throughout his career. He's been very productive this season. I would say he's pretty close to must start, even in three outfielder leagues. This is Brad from upstate New York. Dear, Hand, Peacock, Boxburger, and Zimmer. Okay, so what did those four? Oh, come on, Scott. Hand, Peacock, Boxburger, and Zimmer.

Go ahead. their names. Hand, Peacock, Boxburger. Oh, Brad. Yeah, they're Brad. Brats. There you go. Now, real quick, off script, name another famous Brad.

Pitt? Oh, very good. I couldn't think of anything. I don't know why. I could not think of one Brad. Brad Pitt. Good call. Ten team head-to-head categories, OBP League.

Who do you like rest of season? Jerks and ProFar or Marwin Gonzalez. Oh, definitely pro-far. Not even close. Yeah. And Joe from Wadsworth, Illinois basically wants us to commiserate with him about how Josh Donaldson has been the most frustrating player in fantasy. No break of any bone or surgery of any kind to speak of.

How annoying is it that we are almost up to three months now waiting for Josh Donaldson to return? Can anyone remember the last time a player was sidelined this long and there was no broken bone and no surgery performed? I'm sure it's happened, but... Oh, yeah. Countless examples. It's so common that I couldn't even... We can't even think of it, right? Yeah, nobody stands out.

But I will say, you know, since we transitioned from ProFar to Donaldson there, about a month and a half ago, I traded Donaldson in a Dynasty League for Jericho profar. Now, it's a situation where Donaldson would have been, I think, like a $27 keeper versus as ProFAR being a $5 keeper. But I've gotten a lot of use out of ProFar since that trade. And I'm not sure the Donaldson owner is going to get any use, any meaningful use out of him the rest of this season.

All right, let's go to today's matchups. The Braves are at the Nationals. We have Anabal Sanchez against Gio Gonzalez. I would start Anibal. We've got Jose Barrios at Corey Klober. We'll start them both. Robbie Erlin, interesting. at Javier Gera.

Robbie Erlin at Junior Gera. Start Gara. All right. Rangers at Yankees. Horado at Hap. Yeah, I can't trust Hap. The Rangers are just too good right now. Oh, I forgot about a segment. I forgot about a segment.

We'll do it after this. Oh, no. Or we'll do it tomorrow. I'm fine passing on Hap's first start back from Hand, Foot, and Mouth Syndrome. What happened to my third base segment? I feel like I got deleted from my notes. It was about Rafael Devers, Travis Shaw, and Joey Gallo.

Sounds like a horrible segment, but I didn't not delete it. What? It's a great segment. Shaw's homered in three straight games. Gallows, two homers yesterday's been hot. Devers came off the D.L. and Homer. It's a great segment. All right, tomorrow.

I don't know. Rick Porcelo at Ryan Burucky. Yucky barucky. I guess the Red Sox, yeah. I would say that's yucky. So just Porcelo. We've got Orioles at Rays, David Hess at a relief pitcher, Hunter Wood. No.

By the way, Faria did not start yesterday. No, he didn't. He didn't even pitch yesterday, did he? James Paxton at Justin Verlander. Both seats. Oh, Ross Stripling is back. I did not even realize that. I am sorry.

Ross Stripling at Tyler Anderson tonight. Mr. Anderson. This is a tough one. Tough for both of them. Yeah. That course field, first of all. Anderson's been shaky lately, stripling just back from injury. I am going to say start both.

Caution to the wind. By the way, Jake Ferreya dealing with a sore neck. And Pirates at Giants, Ivan Nova at Andrew Suarez. No. Correct. You're right to say no. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for listening. We're coming back tomorrow with another edition of fantasy baseball today.

A little Kokomo Friday for you. We'll talk to you then.