Fantasy Baseball Today - 08/13: Prospects, Aquino, Mon. Recap (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: August 13, 2019

We are excited to welcome a new team member to Fantasy Baseball Today! Find out who's joining the show! And find out which prospects are joining the big leagues and if we're interested in adding them ... Gleyber Torres is approaching a record while Aristides Aquino just broke a record. We talk about those guys, plus the TOR sluggers, several OFs who our Sportsline projection model loves, plus James Paxton, Mitch Keller and more from yesterday's games ... A couple of 2020 debates as we wonder how Gio Urshela will be valued next season ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. What a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. All right, welcome to the show, everybody. It is Monday night right now, August 12.

You're listening to this on Tuesday, August 13th. A somewhat ho-hummed day in Major League Baseball, some lousy pitchers on the mound. But as we speak, Mitch Keller is trying to, you know, restart his 2018 MLB, or 19, rather, MLB career. So he's off to a good start against the Angels. We'll keep you updated on that. Meanwhile, Aquino homered again, and we got some big time call-ups to tell you about. I'm Adam Azer.

What's up, Scott White? Adam. What's that going? It's going pretty well. Are we ready for the big announcement? I think we should probably do it sooner than later. I think so. All right.

I teased it at the end of yesterday's show. Big announcement coming up. I'm almost nervous to say. I'm nervous to say it's all right. Here's what happened. It's football season. We're running a little, we're stretched a little thin. We decided we needed to bring someone else on the team.

So for the next several weeks, I'm going to be on it, maybe in somewhat of an analyst's role, but I'm going to be kind of phased off the podcast. Scott's going to be there. And we brought in a new person to host the show. So Scott, we went about this. We started out and we said, what do we need from a host? Well, Scott and Chris and Heath, like, they got all the stats. So we need someone who's funny, someone who has good energy, someone who knows fantasy baseball,

someone who's got podcasting experience, someone who's good at his job. But most importantly, we already have an intro that says, here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris. Oh, that was the most important part. So we needed somebody that was of one of those four first names. So ladies and gentlemen, your new host of fantasy baseball today for the rest of the season from the In This League podcast, Scott Boggman. Ladies and gentlemen.

No, just kidding. It's Chris Welsh back on the show. And Chris is a member of the CBS team. Welcome, Chris. Welcome to CBS. I am incredibly honored. You were saying, you're like, I've got to look for, you know, a good intelligent guy.

We've got to find a guy that knows the sports. It's funny. It's like 12 of them weren't available. So you did find the one thing that I did fit was the name Chris. Big weighty shoes to fill in any capacity, whether it was a day or six weeks. So I'm a little bit nervous like the backlash, Azer. I mean, you got to know that there's backlash coming. When people are going, I mean, there'll be a few people that are maybe happy that you're not there,

but there's going to be way more people that are going to be super upset. Oh, absolutely. You're going to get a lot of those. So, yeah. I mean, the thing is Adam and I have been doing this, what, like 10 years almost? Uh-huh. Oh, yeah. Which is an eternity.

You're talking any media context, right? Like, people don't remember a podcast. There technically was a podcast before Adam was hosting it. They're technically what. Nobody remembers it. I don't remember it. It wasn't good. It'll be good.

Is that, is that being you nervous, Scott? Because I found out, apparently, I only do podcasts with people named Scott. So that is one thing that I'm comfortable with with Scott Bogman and now Scott White. But like, where are you at on that? Like, this is your guy. Adam's your guy. Adam is my guy. Yeah.

But now I am your guy. I'm sorry. Yeah, no, this is going to be good. This is going to be good. I felt good in previous podcasts with the Welsh. And, you know, we got a, we got a chance to kind of try it out, try out the fit. I think it's a good fit. I think people are going to like it.

I think based on the feedback of those podcasts, it will eventually go over well. But there will be an adjustment period for sure. But I'm going to be on the show. That's the thing. I'm going to be on the show. And I'm going to be kind of training Chris on how to be himself while capturing the voice of fantasy baseball today.

So we gave that a shot. We put together a rundown. And Chris, let's get started. Let's do the Tuesday show here on Monday night. What do we got? that's what we like. All right, big news. Jose Martinez, he is on the aisle with an AC joint sprain.

So the St. Louis Cardinals called up Randy. We were doing the pronunciation game before we started up and we said, Randy, uh, Rosarina. Is that what we decided on? Yeah, I think so. I think that's what Scott decided on. I was afraid to actually do that. So this is good.

I mean, I'll be the fall guy. Who's willing to do the things I'm too afraid to do. Yeah, I'll be the fall guy here. he's interesting a Rosarina 349 average in the miners this year 435 OBP 10 homers 16 stolen bases between AA and AAA

Scott where's your level of interest on him I wouldn't say it's it's nothing I feel like though like we have to take all AAA numbers at this point particularly ones accumulated at the PCL primarily with a grain of salt

like offense is just exploding there And relative to that, the power numbers for Arosarena are, you know, 10 home runs and 350 plate appearances. They're fine. I think, you know, he's kind of a, he has some speed, but he doesn't use it very well. 16 out of 20, 16 for 26 stealing bases. It's not a good percentage. You know, he makes contact at a pretty good rate. Honestly, he reminds me a little bit of Dexter Fowler.

I'm not sure that I expect him. I'm not sure that I expect him to be more than that, like, fourth outfielder type at the majors, assuming he even gets consistent enough playing time, you know, to matter in that respect. You know, I don't know. I'm not that excited, I guess is what I'm trying to say, although I recognize that obviously a player who puts up good numbers in the minors, it could go well in the majors. I mean, his numbers are a little bit, not even that inflated for who he is.

I like to say over on when I do Prospect 1, it's Prospects a symbol when we get multiple guys. The D-Backs called up Josh Rojas, who 4% owned in CBS right now, only 1% start. 332. You want to talk about numbers that maybe you have to alter a little bit

and not freak out about, but 332 average 418 OBP, 23 homers, 33 stolen bases, also a 57 to 70 walk-to-strikeout ratio between AA and AAA. He's 25 years old. He was in the Granky trade,

and he played on Monday night, got his first two hits playing in left field because David Peralta's out. Any of either one of you guys have excitement on him? I know a lot of people were buzzing about him maybe in 2020, but is he more exciting than a Rosarina? Yeah, the steals really pop out to me, Scott White. Yeah.

No, I mean, you look at the line. This guy is basically Carlos Beltron in the minors this year, but it's another situation where 25 years old, okay, so beyond the typical prospect age, he went from having not so great minor league numbers to these amazing minor league numbers at AAA. In his case, he's basically doing everything well. High walk rate, low strikeout rate,

running a ton, running well. It's, you know, in particular he's up his power to the opposite field, and maybe that's enough to make, him into something. I'm more interested in him than Aros Arena because of it's such a diverse skill set there. And because he's capable of playing six different positions, it sounds like maybe he'll get the majority of his time at second base in the majors with Catel Marte playing some center field. He bats left-handed. So we don't know in Rojas's case again, how much he's going to play. But I did actually make some moves for Rojas just in case, just in case he turns out to be the real

deal. But I have some skepticism, all things considered. He's got kind of a Jeff McNeil vibe. And I think I've heard that around the internet, so I don't want to take it if anybody had kind of latched onto that. But multiposition eligibility, a lot of bat in the minors. Let's see how it works in the majors. Either one of you guys have any exciting rookies that you're maybe stashing at this point. I mean, Scott, you know, as a prospect guy yourself as well, are there any call-ups pre-September that you're looking at, as we've just seen a Rosarena and Rojas. come up? Yes, there are. I mean, I still think Kyle Tucker's near the top of that list. We have to see him at some point. And the fact that the Astros cleared out Tyler White and Tony Kemp and one other

guy who was blocking the path. Derek Fisher, they cleared them all out at the trade deadline. It makes Tucker, I think pretty clearly next in line whenever there is a new opening for him. I'm not ruling out a Gavin Lux call up, even though, you know, it seems like there have been some reporters who've tried to pour water on that idea, pour some cold water on that idea. I mean, he's just been unbelievable at AAA, and the Dodgers want to actually win the World Series this year, right?

I think him and, you know, I'm less certain, not really confident at all, in fact, that Luis Roberts is going to get called up. but Lux and Robbers, kind of the same situation. The impact could be so considerable if they are. I feel like in leagues of real size, it's worth stashing them. And then kind of a higher probability call-up, I think, is Justice Sheffield. He was terrible at AAA with the new, with the offensive explosion there this year.

But since getting to double A, he's better than he's ever been before. I mean, sub-2ERA, I think around two walks per nine, that was always an issue for Justice Sheffield. And the Mariners have an opening since the trade deadline that they haven't had to fill yet because of a bunch of off days. I think Sheffield might get that chance later this week. I like the Sheffield one, the Lux one, too. Azar, where does your speculation go on guys like Lux? You know, these guys that, especially Tucker, too,

these major prospects that were, you know, they're looming, and you're getting guys like Rojas that are coming into getting the time. Are you making your speculative ads where you can? Well, listen, lesson learned for you, Chris. You don't ask me about prospects. I ask Scott about prospects. That's how prospects work. I'm trying to get you in there.

You're trying to get me in there. You start to show with a five-minute segment that I can't be a part of. That's great. I've got something for you. I've got something for you. Well, I will tell you that I have not dropped Louis Robert because of exactly what Scott said. There are no bats on the waiver wire that could have the impact that he could have, so I'm stashing him. Now, what do you have for me, Chris?

Okay, what I have for you. And I think last week you guys were talking about this pre-injury. Nelson Cruz is not going to need wrist surgery. and he's going to remove baseball activities. I don't understand how someone who ruptures anything doesn't have surgery and can do anything. If there is a human being that says you ruptured something, I will go in a fetal position, I will start crying, and I can't do anything. Rupure is bad, but apparently not for Nelson Cruz. No, I guess it's good news that he will be back.

I think, you know, I don't think he's going to be quite as good, but I get. Yeah, exactly. What am I a doctor here? I don't know. I don't know. Where's your trust level with Nelson Cruz? I think you guys were talking like crazy high on him with that insane streak that he had. You guys were talking like next level production rest of season.

Now that he escaped it, are you comfortable assuming that Nelson Cruz is this, you know, an incredible fantasy asset the rest of the way through? Or do you think there's some serious concern for zapped production? I think definitely concern for zapped production. But I think that whenever there's a situation like this, with a guy's high end is Nelson Cruz. I can't... It's not like I can bench him.

Obviously, nobody's going to drop him. You know, you just kind of have to wait and see what happens. It could be a Chris Davis situation where he's horrible, or it can be a Matt Olson situation where he broke his handmate bone and came back and had really no issues getting the power back. It's just hard to know. Look, I assume... If he doesn't need surgery, I assume that they're okay.

They're comfortable with him hitting, so when he's back, I'd start him. I feel like Chipper Jones was a guy who consistently played at a very high level through these injuries that he had no business playing through. Some players are capable of doing that. Some players

they have a tight hamstring and they can't do anything anymore. I agree at him that I think Cruz deserves the benefit of the doubt, but as soon as that doubt enters because of whatever he's doing at the plate,

like crunch time, you know, you kind of have to have a quick trigger at that point and have somebody ready to replace him. Sure. Other big news out there, Juan Soto sat with an ankle sprain. We're obviously just going to have to kind of sit and monitor this. Is this something, I mean, you know, trade deadlines have kind of passed so you don't have much of a move outside of maybe weekly leagues, which, again, have also passed about sitting him. So we'll have to monitor the Juan Soto stuff. I want to get to Monday standouts for you, Scott.

But Mitch Keller update since we were talking about him. Three inning so far as we're recording this at night. Three strikeouts, one walk, only given up two hits. Very, very effective. Had lots of run support so far as we're in the fourth inning as we're doing this, Pirates up six to nothing. Level of excitement with Mitch Keller moving forward. I know you guys talked a lot about the two starts and there were some apprehension.

What do you feel, Scott, moving forward with Mitch Keller? It's moderate excitement and mostly because everybody needs more pitchers. This is one who obviously has upside. He's been considered one of the top pitching prospect in baseball for several years now. The numbers in the minors consistently have been just

kind of so-so, and I would say the same is true for this year, but you compare it to the rest of the AAA landscape and they look a lot better. He had 12 strikeouts in his most recent AAA start. You know, if he continues this, puts together a good start today,

then I'm probably more excited about adding him, certainly, than Arrows Arena, and even, even forgetting his name now, Josh Rojas. Yeah. So far, so good. Yeah, no, he's off to a great, so I was watching a little bit of the start before we got on. Throw is really hard. I think you got to watch the strikeouts here because the Angels do not strike out. I think they have the fewest strikeouts per game in the majors.

So far, he has three through three innings. So, you know, like I have a two-star Alex Wood in one of my lineups in a 14-team league, going to go ahead and put in the claim right now for Mitch Keller. I wish I had picked up Mitch Keller earlier, but I don't, I mean, we're in the playoffs in this league, so I'll probably get them. But I'm going to drop Alex Wood, who I don't really think is useful in a one-start week, for Mitch Keller, who could be useful in a one-star week. And, you know, look, I've seen too many starts where it just falls apart after a strong start.

So it's tough to have this conversation right now. It's going to be one of the downsides of doing late shows. there will be those 10 p.m. Eastern games where we just don't have that much information. It's 1130 right now on the East Coast. But, yeah, as of right now, I am very happy to drop Alex Wood for Mitch Keller. How about this one real quick as a hood you rather? Merrill Kelly tonight was getting lit up four earned runs in the first inning. He gave up a couple solo shots to Trevor Story and McMahon.

Only three quality starts in his last eight, and he's given up 23 earned runs in the last four games. So, Merrill Kelly or Mitch Keller, Adam, will start with you moving forward. I would say that, you know, we have to see where this start goes, but Kelly is the type of guy I'd be fine dropping for a high upside pitcher who strikes people out. The only thing I'll say is I don't have any concerns of Kelly because of this start because it was at Colorado. But yes, just in general, I have Kelly in a Roto League, and I'm just like, I basically never play him. So, yeah. Yeah, right, yeah.

So Keller's kind of somebody I'd go with upside. I feel like Kelly's and I got to be careful here, Kelly and Keller. Oh, I keep saying Keller. I'm sorry. Yeah, maybe I should call them Mitch and Merrill. I'm not sure that's better. Oh, it is Keller. Yeah, Keller, right.

Keller, Mitch Keller. Right, you screw. Merrill Kelly. Scott White. Now, Merrill Kelly, I feel like is that class of pitcher that is just like, like you you don't really know what he's going to do for one start to the next so control's good enough that he could throw like seven one run innings and it's great or he you know he's he's just too hit a bowl and he gets crushed like today and i feel like that pitcher is very hard to use in a traditional five by five league certainly roto i'd almost rather go with a uh a good ratio reliever that's kind of where we've gone with pitching over the past couple years of especially this year. And I'd rather go with an upside guy like Keller for sure.

Yeah. I actually, when you were saying that, I was like, whatever you just said, you could have intertwined to both of those pictures where you're like, you know, Merrill Kelly's, you know,

one thing from here, the other, the command, he could get lit up, you could have a good performance. Exactly same thing with Mitch Keller. If you watched him, I watched him in 2017.

He was out here in the Arizona Fall League, and he was such a command of the zone type of a guy, really a tinkerer as he was trying to push his fastball. in and then get with a curveball. And he could just, it can work great where he goes six. He strikes out five, six, seven, or he can get lit up for five or six runs. Any other standouts for you there, Scott, for Monday? For Monday.

Let me look here. This is a great, it's a great moment in the show, Chris. This is when Scott doesn't know. When you ask me an obvious question that I don't have an immediate answer. I'm here for it. I'm here for this. Yeah, no, I mean, it's, it wasn't the most excited. a lot of offense in that Blue Jays game, but mostly from players were already convinced

or either good or bad. Like Bo Bichette had another huge game. Stole his second base, which was nice. Two doubles, four hits. But, you know, everybody contributed. Smoke contributed. Who cares? Kevin Bigeo.

I'm about to the point of saying who cares with him because he's 30% strikeout rate. Yeah. Look at Scott just destroying my bashing Blue Jays segment. I have a segment called Bashing Blue Jays because we co-authored this rundown. Justin Smoke, three for five of the home run, two doubles, but he had a 105 batting average in his previous 11 games. And the reason why Chris Towers like Justin Smoke as a second-half sleeper is, like, his batted ball data is, you know, is good.

His babbip is so low. He is a 214 babbip entering tonight. And he looks like the same hitter with better plate discipline. So, you know, than ever. Best walk to strikeout ratio of his career, but a 2-14 Babbat if entering tonight for Justin Smoke. So there was that. Randall Gritchick's also been fairly hot previous 13 games before tonight

when he homered and doubled, batting 283 with four homers. And then in deep leagues, Brandon Jury has been pretty good, but barely plays plays like every other day, so I don't think you want Brandon Jury. Randall Gritchick and Justin Smoke are both owned 44% of league. So Scott, sorry, Chris, I'm doing your job. Scott, who would you rather own? And Chris, who would you rather own?

Justin Smoke or Randall Gritchick or nobody. I mean, you bring up a good point about smoke. It's such a high standard that has to be met, particularly among First Baseman, that I'm just not sure he's going to have time to gain my trust in any leagues where, you know, unless they're not so deep where he's already owned, you know. But the ex-WOBA is like three,

85 much higher than the actual Wobah, the ratios look pretty good. So we'll keep an eye on this. I just don't know that he's going to have enough time to really enter the discussion. Okay. Yeah, I think I'm a Gritchick guy on this one, too. Over the last two weeks, four homers, almost 300 average 296. I mean, OVP is relatively non-existent, but I don't know, Justin Smoke, those type of first baseman, I mean, we're slowly starting to cancel those type of players out, this fringy average first baseman that, you know, production is.

fine, but it's a dime a dozen with those type of guys. Not saying Randall Gritchick is any better, but I'll take the hot streak on Randall Gritchick right now as far as where I'm going to go. All right, that's good stuff. Adam, do we have a break we need to hit? We do. We have a couple of sponsors today. We have Lightstream and Cheers.

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Take cheers.com slash strike. And you're going to hear Heath talk about it because Heath uses the product. You know, I don't drink, but Heath talked to you about cheers and how much he likes it. All right, so we're going to take a break here on fantasy baseball today. And when we come back, your new host is going to guide you through the rest of the show. Setting some records. Mr. Azer put some very, very exciting Glaver Torres stuff on here. So I actually just want to throw it right to you because Glaver Torres is doing some stuff.

He hates Orioles. You guys remember in The Jerk, one of my favorite All Times movie, he hates these cans. That would be Glaver Torres with the Orioles. He is demolishing them. So, Adam, what do you have? I've never seen the jerk. What? Is that the one with Rupric, or is that Dirty Rotten Scoundrel?

What? That, what? The jerk? Yeah, I never... Have you both never seen the jerk? I've never seen it. I never seen it. Is Michael Kane in that one?

I quit. I'm out of here. It's Steve Martin. It's Steve Martin. It's maybe the masterpiece of Steve Martin. All he need is my red thermos and I need this lamp. Nothing? I've seen Dirty Rotten Scoundrels.

That's the one with Michael Cain. Scott would know that. I will be very disappointed if there is more hate. about me on here, then there is about you two never seeing the jerk. I will be very, very disappointed. Okay, so that was a huge disappointing reaction there. But what about Glaber Torres, Adam?

So, Glabor Torres hit three home runs. Two of them were three-runs, excuse me. And he did that in a double-heder today against Baltimore. That gives him 13 homers in 16 games against the Orioles. And he is one shy of the Major League record for most home runs by one player against the team in his season. Roger Maris hit 14 home runs against one team in his season.

So Torres, you know, even with this big game, I think he's probably only going to move up one spot in the fantasy points at second base. He'll be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. He'll be 10th instead of 11th. He's missed some time. But I know, Scott and I, we talked about him.

He's got like an 880-ish OPS, that 860 something. He's having a great year. He's 22 years old, and yet he's still not making that much of a fantasy impact. Well, he's having a great year when everybody's having a great year. I mean, this has been kind of one of the storylines of the season is like, where can you get an advantage among hitters? And there's not many places you can.

Glaver Torres, you're perfectly fine with them as you're starting second baseman. Now that it appears this core issue isn't an issue. And I think that was a serious question coming into the week. three home runs and one day will change that. But is he that much better than Ozzy Albies? Is he that much worse than Max Muncie? Or is he even better than Max Muncie? Like, it's just, it's a lot of the same thing.

And that's true, certainly across the infield. I feel like, I feel like outfield is one place you can gain an advantage, but it has to be in a five outfielder league. A three outfielder league, probably not. Right. Do you think there's going to be some type of like 2020? I'm going to throw it a little bit to football where there's, there's, is kind of this um there's a there's a there's a glob of players that are kind of in the same realm it's

like like running i don't know if you want to go by running backs by committee but you start getting into this range of players where it's like the differentials between them are so low or maybe the better analogy would be the quarterbacks after you don't take the top quarterbacks there's just this quarterback five through 12 that are all the same do you think there's a glob of middle infielders that aren't going to differentiate themselves so you just say i'll take the the furthest back of this tier and that includes like guys like you said albius and torres and whatnot that's i mean that's kind of what i did this year i i the last couple years i began to emphasize starting pitching more and more and it's increased every year this year was probably more than any year before it because the

thinking was well how much worse is this seventh round third baseman than this third round third basement and it wasn't clear to me that he was and even with that approach i find i don't really need hitting anywhere even in those rhodo league Like, I'm crushing it in the hitting categories and the pitching categories in the middle of the pack. So, like, even emphasizing pitching, it hasn't hurt my hitting. And I still need more pitching. So, like, I don't know. It's, that's going to be the pitching versus hitting debate that rages on every year, I think, is going to be ramped up more again next year.

And some of the keys might be, you know, in drafting for next year is taking and running back was a bad one. It's the quarterback thing that's the good analogy here, where you go and you take, you know, you look at these tiers of these players and you say, okay, well, where is my advantage where I take the bottom of this tier and then you're going to be able to get the positions that are really scarce, whether that is pitching or, you know, middle infield and starting pitching could end up being the ones that are kind of the teary globs. Another thing, too, I love, by the way, is I love when a player absolutely dominates a team. Like the other teams hate Baltimore is going to hate Labor Torres. It just reminded me of Trevor Story, who hit a homer on Monday night. Trevor Story absolutely owns the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's hitting 386 just this season, got his third homer, got a 400 plus OBP. Is there anybody else you can think of that just absolutely owns that city?

I mean, Glaber Torres is the mayor of Baltimore at this point. And they're sometimes my favorite players. Are there any other players right now that have absolute onage that you can think of? I'm springing this on. I know that Mike Trout has. has hit, like, so the most home runs by any one player against one team would be Torres against the Orioles, Gary Sanchez against the Orioles, just this year, and Mike Trout against Texas. So let me look up his career against the Rangers. It might be one of those things where like Mike Trout just, just so. Maybe we just say Yankees versus Orioles, all Yankees own New York. Everybody owns the Orioles.

I want to say the Nationals own Julio Tehran. Ooh, that's my favorite, too, when a pitcher just can't. Well, I mean, it's almost like Remind Marquez. Like, he just can't pitch at home. But I love when a team owns a pitcher as well. You're kind of... You have it on him? You're the jerk.

In his career is like 1,100 OPS. But this year, Mike Trout has a 1564 OPS against the Texas Rangers. He is batting 349 with nine home runs in 13 games. It's pretty good. That's pretty good. But no steals. More said in the record. Aristides, Akinio, we love him.

I had put him in the notes prior to the show, and I was like, ooh, I get to pick that he went hitless, and he got a couple strikeouts. And I was excited to start talking about that because he's got to calm down. Then he hit another dang homer. Most homers in the first 12 MLB games hasn't gone without a hit, by the way, since August 2nd. And, Adam, you put a bunch of other good stuff out here that's kind of comparative to what Akeño's done with Trevor Story, Trey Mancini. You want to rattle those off? Yes.

Right. So I think this is a great time if you're still selling. And I swear to you, I currently have an email going with someone where I am considering trading Aquino because he really wanted a keynote and I outbid him for Aquino last week. And I have reaped the benefits for sure. But I mean, this is what Trevor Story did. He just broke the record. Most home runs hit in the first 12 games of a career.

So this is what Trevor Story did. This is what Jordan Alvarez did. Alvarez did not cool off, but I think that the batting profile was much better for Alvarez, Scott. I mean, the plate doesn't plan just that in general. Trevor's story, his first six games, he homered seven times. He batted 333, but he had one walk to eight strikeouts. His next 54 games, he had a 780 OPS with nine home runs in 54 games. And he had Corse Field.

Aquino did strike out two more. times today. And I mean, maybe it's just the environment. Maybe he can pull it off, but it feels like he's more likely to go the Austin Riley route than the Jordan-Alberos route. We have a more recent example than Trevor's story, and it's Austin Riley. And I think peripherally, and it's such a small sample size, you know, I'm not sure even how much to weigh minor league peripherals in with everything else. But, you know, peripherally, he looks a lot more like Austin Riley than Jordan Al Perez. So I would be, I would be wary of expecting too much from Aquino.

He's very strong. When he makes contact, the ball should travel far pretty often. But contact appears to be an issue for him. Today's home run was to the opposite field, and two of the eight, I think, are. But, you know, he has very strong pull tendency. So beyond just the strikeout rate, you know, the fact he's eliminating half the field, I think works against him. Well, the one interesting thing, though, Scott, is we were, I was looking at this over and in this league just the other day, was that he's got a 60% plus non, what was it, center hits. You know, if he's going opposite, if he's going, if he, I'm completely blank here, if he's pulling center percentage or opposite.

opposite, 60 plus just right dead middle hits instead of the pull. I think it was 30% only about 30% pull for Akino, which is just a little contrary to that. And everyone is marking out as due to his brand new stance where he's really open. He's practically facing the pitcher. And then he comes in after the pitch comes in. And that timing mechanism has helped him make better contact, which is less pulley, but he still strikes out like crazy. See, I was thinking the open stance might lead to more pulling. And I was looking at the minor league numbers.

And, you know, I just said it. I wasn't factoring those in. And I actually was with the pull tendencies. But anyway, I mean, like, I think, I think, and several players have shown that a strikeout rate near 30% is survivable in this environment. Because the ball is coming off the bat at such velocities that, You know, you can make high enough quality contact even when the contact is that limited to be, you know, a good hitter. And maybe Akeena will be that. But I would bet against that.

I would say the odds are against that. I don't, the thing of it is like we're just in over the weekend. We've come around to the possibility of rostering Akeena. His ownership has has skyrocketed since the three homer game. And so I feel like it's too early to start playing the sell high game with him. you know, it was later on with Riley that we were talking about that. I could be wrong. If you're getting great offers for Mazer, obviously you need to listen to those.

But I'm more to the point of, okay, let's roster them. Let's see where this goes. And then if it continues for another week or two, you know, I guess trade deadlines will be passed by then. Yeah. But that's kind of just in a general sense how I'm evaluating it. What was the trade offer? Nothing yet. yet. I just, I'm in conversations.

Okay, started it up. By the way, in my incoherentness, it was a 52.4% center hit percentage, 38.1 pull is so far at the major league level of people are wondering and trying to decipher whatever the heck I was trying to talk about. That was brutal. That was really, you blew it. Probably was edited pretty good too because I'm the editor now, so people won't have heard all of those mess up. I'll replay. Here's what I'll do. Anytime I stutter and miss on something, I'm going to just insert an Adam Azer laugh track that I own that I actually have copyright too. So be on the lookout for that one. Let's do a hooger rather and then we'll break and we'll do some injury news.

And we've got a couple other cool things. I wanted to bring this one to the table for you. And it has to do with Aquino, Erestedia is Aquino, with his four homers versus Fran Mill Reyes, who hit his 28th tonight. But he has been relatively abysmal since his train. So, Adam, let's start with you. Aristides Aquino for Fran Mill Reyes. Maybe that could be your trade offer. Which one do you want that?

I think I'll take Reyes. I think I'll take Reyes. He's been really streaky. But the fact that he's playing every day just leads me to believe there's a hot streak coming. So I could seriously regret that, but I will take Framil Reyes. I'll take the mystery box.

The relative mystery box of Aquino. Yeah, I'm just not sure that Reyes has proven to be productive enough that I'll really miss what he provides if Aquino doesn't pan out. I break the tie, Chris. Yeah, I mean, I got to go with Franma Reyes here. I've seen both of these players. People are going to get this from time to time. I'm located in Arizona, so I've got 14 complexes out here,

and it just so happens that the Cleveland Indians and Reds are next to my house, and the San Diego Padres is 20 minutes away, and I have seen Fran Mill and Aquino for the last three years. Aquino has always been relatively average. I've enjoyed watching him because he's a big monster out there. And you're just like, look at this guy in the field. Next to a guy's like Shed Long when he was there. But Fran Moraeus is another type of special.

And I've always thought he was going to be an average issue type of player. But what you have with Aquino is I think what you hope Fran Moraes gets to. We're saying Framoreus isn't that exciting. But he's got 28 homers. He is only hitting 240. And he's probably going to pop into around the. 70 marker on runs and RBI's, I don't know if we can get that much better with Aquino

who doesn't have a track record outside of this new adjustment. So I like the hot hand for the now now for this week. But if I had to go through the rest of the season, I'm still going to bank on Franmo Reyes, but it is a tough one. It is a tough one. It kind of depends on the depth of the league, I think. If you're talking like a 15-team-5 outfielder league,

then certainly you go with the safer proposition there. I mean, Reyes is a proven power hitter at this point. Like 10 teams, you could just kind of interchange these two guys. He's probably out there all the time anyway. But like I was thinking more 12-Team 3 outfielder context. Okay. It makes it tough. Yeah, I mean, it would be interesting to pull everybody.

I'd love to know what they think about that. All right, cool. All right, Adam, I'm going to kick it to you. We're going to go to break, and then I think we've got a few more things to do. Yes, all right. Coming up on the show, we're going to talk about James Paxton and his ridiculous first inning struggles. We've got something from Sportsline from our data scientist, Stephen O.

And we've got a 2020 debate involving one of the hottest hitters in baseball right Now, that is coming up next on fantasy baseball today. All right, let's do a few injury news and notes, and then I want to hear about James Paxton, of course. Yasio Puig, beginning serving his three-game suspension. That happened on Monday night. Everyone be aware. Cincinnati claimed Freddie Galvis from Toronto.

Galvis had been hitting 267. Pretty solid replacement infielder, if you were looking for one. Michael Chavis on the aisle with a sprained shoulder. I'd ask either one of you guys, where would you be leaning if you were trying to replace some of that Michael Chavis production? Yes, if we were not worried about Freddie Gavis, I think a little bit less than anything. But if you're trying to replace Michael Chavis, where would you be digging? Start with you, Scott. Well, we're assuming a deeper league, probably, if you were still relying on Michael Chavis.

So that obviously influences the options there. Rugned at Odor Homer tonight, and he's been on a pretty nice pace in the second half. He's capable of matching Chavis's power. I don't have a lot of confidence in him beyond just a hot hand play. And even that, it started to cool off before tonight. But there's power there. One guy who Adam and I have, Adam hasn't really seen the upside of, but it's been like six weeks now where Jason Kipnis has been a 900 OPS guy.

and Joe started with him saying he figured something out with his hands, which just, you know, it's just a fun line. That's why I keep saying it. But Adam, has Jason fix anything? What do you think? You mean Joe Kipnis? Joe Kipnis? Did I just call him Joe?

No, no, you did it. You did. Oh, okay. My gosh. Yeah, no, it was a big. That's a pretty good one. Just burn it through a couple more here. Luke Voight may be able to avoid surgery.

There's positive. Luis Severino could return as a starter this season. reason. Groundhog's day for that, though. Tommy Fam, he sat with a sore hand. Jake E. Ada may need elbow surgery, but by Andrew Cashner, going to pitch out of the bullpen at him. Andrew Cashner experiment, not so good. I think he had eight ERA in his six starts with Boston. And is Andrew Cashner an option in any capacity of anything? Holds leagues. I mean, just dump him out, right? No, he's bad. They were desperate. They've been, they've had a lot of trouble with their number five starter spot right now, Price on the I.L.

I actually think that now is the first time. I think they're not going to make the playoffs. They got a lot. Really, now is the first time. They've had a lot of trouble with one through five. That is true, but now it's... I insist Chris Dale is fine. And I think he showed it last start.

But the Brian Johnson's of the world that they didn't want to have to start anymore. That's why they got Cashner. So regardless, I don't think they're making the playoffs. I mean, they might get swept by Cleveland. I know it's only been one game, but like Cleveland's sort of, much better than them. They lost the heartbreaker to the Indians. It's been a terrible season. So it's shocking to me.

It's been terrible. And a terrible bullpen as well. David Peralta, he didn't play due to a stiff neck. Insert Josh Rojas, who we talked about. He got the start. So watch on Peralta. And the Astros and White Sox game was postponed. And it looks like Tuesday is going to be the makeup game, Grinky and Dylan Seas both pushed. Guys, I got this email from CBS today.

It was very fitting. And I was absolutely in love with it. and I wanted to bring this to the show, and I asked Adam about this. Sportsline data scientist Stephen O has apparently simulated the entire week 21 schedule, plus the rest of the season, 10,000 times. Apparently he's Dr. Strange is what I want to call him, because he's like, there's 14 million outcomes, and this is the only one. And he came up with three outfielders that stood out to him.

Brett Gardner from the New York Yankees, Willie Calhoun with the Texas Ranger, and Anthony Santadere, what did we say it was? Santander. Santerre. Santander. I don't like that name. I don't like the stopping points on all of it. So Santander, Willie Calhoun, Brett Gardner is apparently the fix for the endgame for Avengers here. So, Scott, which one are you going to pick if you had to pick one of these in the 10,000 outcomes?

I'm picking Willie Calhoun, who's always had a skill set that's interesting, good power, and yet he doesn't strike out much, and that's carried over here to the majors, finally getting regular opportunities. And like he's playing more regularly than a hunter-pens, since you chew all the old guys who've had good seasons. He's playing more regularly than them. I don't mind the Brett Gardner pick.

I think he's, I think he's been an undervalued option all year, in part because we kept expecting him to lose his job to Clint Frazier. Turns out nobody's losing their job to Clint Frazier because they're losing it to Mike Talkman and Cameron may have been instead, but even so, Garner's still there, plugging away, doing a good job.

Santander is a weird case because he was a guy who hasn't taken advantage of the AAA. Offensive explosion, his numbers there, mediocre. And yet the peripherals back up what he's doing in the majors for the most part. Like, he doesn't strike out much. He's making the quality of contact. He's hitting the ball really hard. since the All-Star break.

I think I brought that up on this show that Anthony Santander has, like, one of the highest exit velocities since the All-Star break. And kudos to Stephen O from Sportsline, because all three of those guys, Santander, Gardner, and Calhoun had big games today. So he's off to a good start. But, yeah, I thought it was pretty interesting. Yeah, that was definitely a pretty good pull. By the way, which one did you pick?

Oh, sorry, go ahead. Well, I'd pick Calhoun. When he started that, Chris, it sounded like you said you got an email from CV, Oh yeah, that was probably my... Your prescription's ready. That's probably just my stupid voice, just spreading the word out. It's funny because when people ask me where I work, and obviously they're not baseball people or anything like that,

I tell them CBS, and they assume I say CVS. So often. They're like, I love your story. Do you guys ever notice, too? You ever go into a CVS and then when they print out the coupon, every time I go, it's like they're giving me money. They're like, hey, listen, you have two. free dollars on this receipt, save this.

Like, they're really intense. Like, save this receipt. And I'm like, okay. And I immediately throw it out. I've never spent a free dollar at CVS in my life. Am I the only one? No. Well, they give really good discounts, actually.

Like, they give me, like, a 30, 40% discount on what item almost every other week I'd say. And I use it for diapers for my son, not for me. But I actually think they're very irresponsible, like environmentally irresponsible with their receipts. It's ridiculous, but I did, one of the best Halloween costumes I ever saw was a CVS receipt. And it went viral. It was terrific. Somebody just had like a thousand items listed because the receipts are just out of control. Okay, let's go back to the show, Chris.

Rain me in. Yeah. Well, actually, how about you talk about James Paxton? Let's get through a few of these notes because I got two cool things I want to do. I want to do a 2020 debate between two players, and we do have a couple emails. But you brought up James Paxton, so Azer, James Paxton. we got. I think I'll just make it quick. You're going to start Paxton every time out.

He's got three straight quality starts. He's starting to pitch better. He's using his off speed, his breaking pitches more. Today, he used his change-up more than he usually does. But in the first inning, James Paxson has a 1071 ERA. Rest of game, he has a 258 ERA.

So he just can't fix this first inning problem. He did give up a run in the first. It was kind of an unfortunate flukey run with some softly hit balls. but still he couldn't really get like the whiffs. So I don't know if he can fix that problem, he could be great. I love the fact that he's mixing up his arsenal,

and there's not that much fantasy analysis because you're going to start James Paxton every time out. We'll see how he does this weekend in a fairly tough matchup against Cleveland at home. He's been very studly. Andrew Benatendi had two hits on Monday and coming into tonight in his last 30 days he was hitting 333, just under 400 OVP, five homers, 18 runs, 23 RBIs, no stolen bases, though, currently ranked 89th overall on CBS and one spot lower than Cole Calhoun, which is not a great sell as far as outfielders go.

Carlos Santana, on the other hand, hit his 26, so dang impressive. He is the eighth first baseman coming in tonight over on CBS. These guys are different positions, but Carlos Santana or Andrew Benintendi in 2020. I know it feels weird when I say that, but Benintendi has had, I felt like so much. bad conversation around. He's not getting the big counting stats that we want. Where Carlos Santana has been such a pleasant surprise and he keeps moving up, highest batting average of his career.

Am I wrong here to even put this debate in here? Is it still clearly Benintendi by name value? But Carlos Santana versus Benintendi, Mr. Scott White. I can't imagine with Carlos Santana's track record with batting average that I would take him over Benintendi in like a traditional five-by-five league. We're talking to points league.

It certainly changes things. More walks than strikeouts again this year for Santana. And he's always been kind of an undervalued stud in that format. But category's got to go Beninti. Especially with the way he's picked to that. What if I threw the round value real quick? And I just, let's just say Ben Intendi in the fourth or Santana in the sixth. Does that change anything in making your decision?

It seems too high for both to. me, which isn't what you ask me, I understand. I would rather use a sixth round pick on Santana than a fourth round pick on Benintendi, but I'm probably not drafting either at those points. Okay. In a five-by-five league. I, um, yeah, I'd take Santana two rounds later. And straight up, I'd probably take Benintendi in a Roto league and Santana in a points

league. So actually one thing that Scott is, sorry, that Chris, you're not, uh, you're not Scott Bogman. Chris. Yeah, that Chris is... He's the Welsh. He is the Welsh. One thing that the Welsh is going to bring that's a little different

is more of a category's perspective. So the Welsh may not know that Carlos Santana is basically the poster child for being better in points leagues. He is the one player who gains the most value in points leagues every single year.

So, yeah, I could see it. Like, his plate discipline is always so good and he's always good in points leagues. He's probably just straight up better than Andrew Bennett and 10. but in a roto league, I would take Benintendi. What I think is also fascinating is look at the end of this year. I mean, everybody just make a mental note.

Statistically, who's going to be higher? Carlos Santana or Josh Bell at this point? And I think Carlos Santana is in that run right now that we're going to have all this like, oh my gosh, Josh Bell, he's moved up so much. His value has adjusted. He maybe is a third round pick even though the last second half has been brutal. Carlos Santana statistically might be better than him across the board. And that's why I brought him up from, and you are right.

I am a little bit more a head-to-head guy. No, am I wrong? Let's see how the last six and a half weeks here go, because I feel like Josh Bell got those few days off, and maybe he's back on track now. Like, maybe. I didn't see that much correction coming, that miserable, you know, month-long stretch after the All-Star break.

They entered tonight, though, nine fantasy points apart. You know, just ahead. And in Roto, much more significant. Bell is the number 16 overall hitter and Santana number 32. Actually, player, not, yeah, not hitter overall. So, yeah, bigger gap there. All right, Chris, what's next? Yeah, I've got one more debate for you than we're going to do a couple emails here.

This is a 2020 debate, and I was just trying to find a way to properly bring up Gio Orchella that isn't the same way you guys have been talking about it because I know, you know, Adam and I were talking. There's been a lot of Gio Orchella, but, like, I wanted to start the show, Scott. I wanted to say true or false. Gio Orshella is the greatest baseball player that has ever walked the earth. And true is the answer at this point because he's incredible. But let's be realistic. 2020, could you rather?

Giorchella, who's hitting 323, 17 homers, 57 runs, 61 RBIs, and 313 at bats, or Jeff McNeil who's hitting 334, 15 homers, 67 runs, which is more than Urchella, 54 RBIs. All they do is swap the. runs in RBI's in 392 at bat. So a little bit more power with Urcella. Seems like there might be a little bit less guaranteed. Jeff McNeil seems to really have solidified himself. So Scott White, Urcella or McNeil. Yeah, I think you kind of summed it up actually, just that we have more evidence this is who McNeil is than we do Urchella. And I'm not saying this isn't who

Urchella is. I think there's a lot of evidence that suggests he could legitimately be this good. But there's not much doubt in my mind with McNeil anymore. The fact he'll be outfield and second base next year

maybe picking up third before season's done too. I mean that obviously helps. But even just comparing it numbers for numbers, I'll take McNeil. Adam, anything change here? I want to take McNeil as Well, I think with Urchella, though, I mean, he's hitting the ball a lot harder than McNeil.

He says hard contact rate is much better. And I do think that's a really, really important stat, but it is one year of his career, which was otherwise awful. So I'd take McNeil. I think what's, you know, what's interesting to think about with the Yankees is what happens with, you know, the guy. And Duhar. Thank you. Yeah. No, I wondered that, too.

I mean, he's defensive liability. Like, they could just make it permanent DH. And then they're stuck with Judge and Stanton on the corners. Well, I mean, Stanton's never going to play. But, yeah, that's fine. He's just perpetually hurt, so they need a guy like that. Do you guys think, last thing on this, because then we got to the emails, but do you think Urcella is at least close to McNeil for people trying to wrap their head around his perceived value coming into 2020?

Or do you think it's relatively far apart because of the track record? I think it's pretty close. I think there's a pretty big mixed bag of guys who just have these out-of-nowhere years and what they do next season. Scott's typically the high guy on those players. And he was the high guy on Scooter Genet a couple years ago. Yeah, last year.

Yeah, last year. Nobody wanted Scooter Genet. I got him everywhere. And he backed it up, you know? And I was pretty low on Jonathan VR. I had really no interest in VR this year. And he might look. He's got like a 780-ish OPS.

He's not a very good hitter, but he's been a top 12 second baseman, which is exactly what he was drafted around pick 100. He's been exactly that. So I think I've learned to really open my mind to guys who have surprising seasons. And yeah, I think it's fairly close. But yeah, I would go with Big Neal, but it's close. Okay. A couple emails here real quick.

Adam says, have your thoughts on Altova changed much since he's been pretty great since the All-Star break, although Adam at least still not running? much. Lots of much is in here. Any of you guys' thoughts change on Al-Tuvae. Scott, we can start with you. Yeah, I'm obviously more optimistic. I mean, he's hitting like Al-Tuvae of old again, and I felt kind of silly. He's hitting like Babe Ruth. He's got 10 home runs since the All-Star break.

He's like, he's way past his old pace. I know that it's that it's 2019, but since the All-Star break, he's batting 383 with 10 home runs. Woo. Yeah. He's brought his season numbers back to where we'd expect them to be for Altuvae, except the steals. And I feel stupid for dropping him behind. I think I dropped him behind like Mike Bustakis at second base, and it's just stupid.

That guy has been terrible, by the way. Has El Tuvee done enough to surpass maybe a Jose Ramirez for next year? Or is Jose Ramirez and his kind of bounced back with the stolen base is just clearly going to be ahead of Altuve? that's a great question thank you it is good host

because I still don't know like I got to see these last seven weeks for Ramirez to like he's been the most perplexing player now for a full calendar year um

you know I think his last 365 day numbers still look pretty awful because it was so bad at the end of last year the season numbers have they look okay now because he's been so hot But I don't know. I really don't.

I really don't know how invested I'm going to be in Ramirez going to get to next year. He has to finish the year strong for me to say he's better than Jose Altuve, who I at least know is going to be a great hitter at one of the weaker positions for whatever that means anymore. Yeah. I think I think like Al Tuvei is going to, he didn't suffer the struggle that Ramirez had. So people are going to have an out. They're going to say, well, injury when they're looking between the two. Adam, I feel like you're safely Al-Tuba here. Well, not really, because I think he's going to be 30 next year,

and it's two straight seasons with a knee issue. And he doesn't run anymore. So I think he's probably a better hitter than Jose Ramirez. He's probably a better hitter than most people in baseball. But it is premature to answer this question. Scott's right. We have to see how this plays out. But now, Al-Tubi's getting up there in age.

He's going to be on the older side of, you know, of the elite players. if he gets drafted in the first two rounds. And, yeah, like I said, kind of somewhat of a chronic issue. Yeah, I looked it up because I was curious. Last 365 days, Jose Ramirez, 234 batting average, 21 homers, 31 steals, 736 OPS. Hit him-wise, the numbers aren't great, but he's a 2030 player. And with a low strike-out rate, of course, because the strike-out rate's been lowed the whole time. All right.

All right. Last one then. Morgan emails in. He's 8 for 46. Yikes. Would you drop Mercado, Oscar Mercado, obviously, for someone like Corey Dickerson or Eric Sogard, OBP League. Scott, what do you think?

I wouldn't because you're talking about two part-time players versus a full-timer. And, you know, I'm not sure I'd be thrilled starting Mercado at this point, but I wouldn't be thrilled starting any of those guys unless it's, you know, maybe if it's a daily line of situation and you can. play the matchups every day, maybe. But that's another thing about it. I don't know, I don't know if you're used to playing in daily lineup leagues, Chris, or weekly. That's a majority of what I do are daily.

I try to mix everything. I try to play all formats. I am a little bit more of a head-to-head categories guy, so I'm much more used to daily leagues, which, you know, it's daunting sometimes. Yeah. No, we definitely skew weekly because that's, I mean, that's CBS does too in terms of what people play, but probably too much.

Probably we don't discuss daily lineup set leagues enough, so that's what I'm here for. It's a good thing to have that contribution. I'll tell you who I would drop him for is Ryan McMahon. And I own Ryan McMahon in a daily lineup league,

and he is nothing but home at Corse Field this week. And I know I'll be starting Ryan McMahon. But I will also say that with Mercado, like this is not the first time he slumped. He slumped a few weeks ago. He came back and he was absolutely, he went bonkers for two weeks. And now he's slumping again.

But it's a little bit frustrating. But that's how I was saying, like, if you can just play the matchups and play McMahon at Corres Field, I think McMahon's a little underowned. His ownership percentage is around 50 percent, I believe. I would not job him for Dickerson or for Sogarde. I agree with that. Yeah. I think we need a Mitch Keller update. Okay.

Mitch Keller, where are we? Yeah, that's a good. You see, Adam, you got me right where you want. wanted me and you just threw me to the wolves there. Let's see. We have got, we are in the six inning, Mitch Keller, five innings, four strikeouts, two walks, one earned run, five hits. Looks like a pretty solid game. 94 pitch count was up, 62 or strikes. Relatively solid, looks like he's going to easily take the win as we're doing this. It's mid-sixth, nine-two pirates up on the angel. So pretty dang good start for Mitch Keller there, Scott. Yeah, I'm curious what the swinging strikes are.

I'm going to look that up now. But in the meantime, I will also put a Josh Bell up there out there. Another home run for Josh Bell. He is fixed. So don't worry about Josh Bell. Is he fully fixed with all the good X-Filocity? That's really sought. Hey, I want to also encourage everybody while you're looking that up.

Send in your emails. I'm an email guy. I love answering questions. So don't be afraid to send the emails in over here at CBS. And I'll try to get some in as many. What's the email address? It's Adam at CBCS. Oh, really?

I have no idea. I have no idea. You ready? It's fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I, not EYE. It's fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. I'm going to write that down. Wariometer Wednesday tomorrow, everybody.

Don't forget. 10 swingy strikes for Mitch Keller. That's good against the angels, Scott. I knew you were going to do that. That's good against the angels. We'll take it. Yeah, I do think it's good against the angels. We'll all take it.

All right, guys. Thank you so much for having me on. Hopefully I can do right by everybody, especially Adam, of course, and Scott can tolerate me as we go. That's all that I got. I think that's all that they got. This is fantasy baseball today.

I think this is how we end it. So I think we're going to get out of here. We'll talk to tomorrow.