Fantasy Baseball Today - 08/14: Severino, Acuna, Carpenter, Fantasy Regulators! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: August 14, 2018

We've got the good and the bad from Monday to talk about. Let's start with Luis Severino (1:50) and his struggles before discussing the amazing Braves outfielder who is NOT named Ronald Acuna (4:21)! And then let's talk about Acuna (7:45)! What is his value this year and is he more valuable than someone like Anthony Rizzo in a dynasty league? ... Nick Castellanos (11:50) and Matt Carpenter (14:45) are among the Monday standouts. When should Carpenter get drafted next year? We also talk MLB news (19:20) including Robinson Cano's return and updates on several injured stars before discussing two catching prospects (23:00) and two pitching prospects (24:55) that have debuted or will do so shortly ... Bullpen (28:30), Trustometer on several SPs (29:40), hitters who are trending up (41:00), hitters who are trending down (45:50), today's matchups (53:00) and Fantasy Regulators (55:45) ... Your emails at [e-mail] This episode is sponsored by www.ZipRecruiter.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

GIFs the most animal. Baseball today podcast. We are going to talk about Matt Carpenter and when to draft him next year when he will be 33 years old and defying baseball odds. We'll also tell you why Ronald O'Cuna has a 66% chance of getting into the Hall of Fame and much more. Your emails at Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. Welcome, everybody. I've got a new nickname for the two guys that are on the show today. If you win a league.

Do you know what your new nickname would be? No, you don't, right? No. You'd be Assassin's Kreeh. Sure. Yeah. Yeah, I like that a lot. Adam, very good name.

Thank you. You sound like you have all of your facilities and have gotten plenty of sleep. No, I have it. I haven't gotten a lot of sleep, but that's okay. I watched some baseball last night. I thought I heard them say on the broadcast that Louis Severino was tipping his pitches on ESPN. I could have sworn I heard them say that. but I kept trying to read about it this morning and didn't see anything saying that he was tipping his pitches.

So I don't know, but we obviously are going to talk about that. In fact, let's start with our email of the day from Joe at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Subject line. Severino needs an opener. Come on, Aaron Boone. And yeah, he's having some first-inning struggles. But he's having more than that. Last seven starts, Severino has a 750 ERA.

He has an 11% swinging strike rate, and he's giving. giving up 11 home runs, and he faces the Blue Jays this weekend. What are you guys feeling about Luis Severino right now? Sad confusion. That's what I would expect from Assassin's Grief. Sad confusion. What about starting him this weekend against the Blue Jays? I probably would.

I don't see how you couldn't. Really? I do. Well, I mean, you could just look at his recent performance and say he's not himself right now. I don't want to start him. Yes, sure. But I, again, we had this conversation last time I was on the podcast, and I just, I don't see what's gone wrong. Do you remember? I know the results are bad. I know that you said his slider doesn't have enough bite or whatever, but like, that's not enough for me to sit a guy with this track record.

But do you remember what you said when we asked, are you going to sit him at Boston? And it was actually quite funny. You were like, you can't sit Luis Severino at Boston. I have Luis Severino, and let me check to make sure I'm not sitting him. And as you checked, you were like, no, I'm not. You can't sit him at Boston. Exactly. Yeah, look, there's a lot of issues here. But they keep saying they're not going to rest him.

His velocity's fine. I thought his velocity was a little bit down last night, but maybe that was just in the first inning. But in the first inning, he was throwing like 95 miles per hour, which is down. And he's having first inning issues. But he is also the kind of pitcher who, who gets more velocity as the game goes on. Yeah, all right. So you say there's nothing wrong.

I think he might be tipping his pitches. He seemed to be indicating that yesterday. But either way, Chris says start him. Heath, official word, start or sit against Toronto. Well, the nice thing about this is that it's a Saturday start. If you're in a daily league, you're making this decision. You should look on Saturday and see where you're at. in terms of wins and strikeouts and ERA and WIP,

I wouldn't call him a must start in that matchup. If I was in a situation where I felt like I had wins and strikeouts wrapped up, and ERA and WIP were close, I probably wouldn't. Well, enough about Severino. Guys, let's talk about that amazing Braves outfielder and all that amazing stuff he's doing. And he, of course, is Nick Marcaquas. Set you up for that one.

Did you know that Nick Marcaquas is the number four? five outfielder in points leagues, and number 12 in Roto. How blown is your mind right now? Oh, he's probably ranked that way pretty much all season. So on August 14th, it's not that surprising. If you had told me that on April 14th, that he would still be that. My mind would be very blown. Yeah, it's kind of crazy.

I mean, he's just, what do you make of it, Heath? He's having his career season, 507 slugging percentage. The first time he slugged over 400 in. six years, Nick Markeekis. Yeah, I mean, there are some things that he's just doing better, and there are some things that are just, um, don't make a lot of sense, and guys just have years like this. And like, as far as the 325 babbip, he's, he's got a, or the 325 batting average, he's got a 3.43 babb, which is the highest of his career since 2008.

So you would expect his batting average to be elevated, and for a guy that doesn't strike out, when he has a really high badbip, the batting average is going to go up with it. The home run to fly ball ratio, he's hitting the ball harder than he ever has. He still only has an 11% home run to fly ball ratio. That's much higher than he ever really has. I don't.

It's like I'm not going to say, well, I think Nick Marquakis is going to be a top 12 outfielder next year, but there's not a lot in the data that says anything. other than he's been really good. The weird thing is there's also not like a ton of signs that he's just dramatically improved or changed his game. Like his contact rate is a little higher than last year, but it's not dramatically so. He's not swinging at dramatically fewer pitches outside of the strike zone.

The two, I mean, it's the quality of the contact he's making when he hits the ball. His line drive rate's 27%. That's absurdly good. His hard contact rates 41%. even in today's everybody's hard contact rate is up. That's still very, very good. Ground ball rate down to 42%, the lowest mark since 2012. He's always made contact at a very high rate.

It's just now when he puts the bat on the ball, he's doing it. He's making a much higher quality of contact. Yeah, I mean, look, next year, I guess I could buy a points league, you know, drafting Marque. Because he's a guy that I just never would have even drafted. I just never would have wanted him. But he's hit 38 doubles, three straight years going into this year. 38 or 39. He's currently at 37.

That's a really good number. His plate discipline's really good. So he's like a usable guy in a points league usually. But obviously this year he's fifth in points, 12th in Roto. I don't know. I can't see myself. Also a free agent this year, I believe. And at the start of the season, we were hoping that he would be the one that the Braves benched for Acuna.

I just can't see myself really. buying into him next year. But that's for next year. What about for this year? I mean, do you trust Markechakis down the stretch? Would you rather have Markegis or Ronald Ocuna down the stretch? Oh, Akunia, for sure. I'd still rather have Akunya.

Well, let's talk about it. Since, I mean, yeah, let's talk about Akuna. Here's your stat of the day. He is the fourth player in baseball history to hit lead-off homers in both games of a double-heder. Two of the previous three are in the Hall of Fame. That's why he's a 66% chance to get in. Brady Anderson is not in the Hall of Fame. name, but Ricky Henderson and Harry Hooper are in Harry Hooper.

I've never heard of Harry Hooper, I admit. I'm sure. I'm certain I've heard of him. He's played in like the 1910s. Remember that show hanging with Mr. Hooper? Yeah, oh yeah, that's right. Yeah, so Harry Hooper is in the whole thing. Yeah, no, Acuna, since becoming the lead-off hitter, it's 23 games.

He's batting 360 with 10 homers and six steals, and 23 runs in 23 games. In the last 28 days, which is most of that time, Ronald Acuna is the number three hitter in points, number two in Roto. Wow. Discuss. He's been like Juan Soto. And I want to go to bat for Scott White just a little bit because Scott was fighting his Braves fan brothers on Twitter last night about Soto still being better than Acuna.

He is. But Acuna is, he came up really hot, and then he had it. cold stretch. They put him in the lead-off spot and he got hot again. I don't think he's quite as good as he's been over the last 23 days and I don't think it's all related to the fact that he's hitting lead-off. But he's a top 20 outfieler. He's been since July 20th in CBS Sports Roto leagues, the number one player in fantasy since moving into the lead-off spot. Wow. And Juan Soto has been really good. He's been the number 33 player. So, look, they're both awesome.

Which one is better? Maybe Ronald Acuna's profile. Juan Soto is better. Maybe Ronald Acuna's profile is a little better for Roto leagues, and Juan Soto's is better for head-to-head points leagues, and we just call it that. Yeah, maybe because of the steals. The steals, yeah.

He's got six in 23 games, I think, as a lead-off here. Yeah. Ten home runs. He's hitting 344. That's not going to continue because he's still striking out at, like, 27%. clip, but that's not terrible. It's just Juan Soto's plate discipline is

legit, like, Joey Votto-esque. So when you look at these guys, and we've talked about it, but let's talk about it again, I mean, who would you rather have in a Dynasty League? Akunya or Soto or a guy like Anthony Rizzo? Soto.

Yeah. I think he's like a year younger than Akunia, too. Yeah. Okay, and Rizzo is, what, around 30? He's got to be up there, yeah. So would you rather have them or Jose Al-Tuvae? I think you still have to go Al-Tuva.

I'll still take Al-Tuva. Rizzo turned 29 six days ago. Oh, he's 29. Happy birthday, Anthony Rizzo. Would you rather have those hot-shot rookies, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, or Bryce Harper? Harper. Yeah. Yeah.

Say it. But, I mean, it's not like Harper's having a worse season than Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo was being drafted not that much later than Harper, so what's the gap there? Just age? I don't know. Yes, probably. And upside. By the way, do you still have the list of where everybody ranks since July 20th?

I do. Where's Harper? Harper is the number 15 overall players, so like the number nine hitter. Oh. Just behind Cole Calhoun and Matt Chappen. Wow, I'm actually surprised I thought he'd be higher than that. Any other standouts that you guys want to talk about from yesterday? So I want to take the opportunity.

He had a five-for-five game. So I want to take the opportunity to talk about Nicholas Castellanos and just how weird he is. Because he has settled in as kind of like, the good version of Corey Seeger. Basically, over the last three seasons, he's been remarkably consistent. I don't think that's the perception we have of him, but, you know, like 820 something, 827 OPS, 811, 832 over the last three seasons,

between 272 and 291 batting average. And the batted ball data suggests that he should be one of the best hitters in baseball. You know, if you compare his bad at ball data to like J.D. Martinez and even the plate discipline, they don't look that different, but the results are super off. And so that makes me wonder, does Castellanos have the big breakout that people were hoping to see this season? Does that still live within him? Or is the Detroit bad ball data still role? I think, well, I think there's something going on with the bad ball data around the league. And I've mentioned that a few times.

people who know about that have said that it's not a part of the explanation. But I don't know. And then, yeah, there might just be bad at all data issues in Detroit. But it's interesting because he's been consistent and yet there are reasons to buy into more than he's shown. And I think Cassiano's it really seemed like he was having that breakout. But he's just been so cold. It was nice to see him go five for five with a home run. yesterday, but his last month or so has been terrible.

So I want to see just what he was before the All-Star break. First, yeah, before the All-Star break, he was at an 877 OPS. That's pretty damn good. 15 homers in 94 games. He's probably never going to be like a massive home run hitter, right? But actually, why do I say that? I mean, he hits the ball hard enough. But yeah, 305, 15, 56 in his, in the first half in 94 games.

And that's the thing is that, like, we've seen with Mac, Carpenter. And obviously Castiana has been better than Carpenter was before the big breakout, but if you believe in these numbers, that's someone who's still a buy low candidate in, you know, this season if you're still making

trades and, you know, potentially for dynasty. I just, I think it's, it's an interesting case. It wouldn't surprise me if he had a 900 OPS next season, but it also... How many years do those numbers have to show that? Well, they've, but that's the thing is they've gotten better every year, too. It's not like the numbers

have just stayed static. He's got the number, the underlying numbers, the ones that we assume or believe are the true display of talent, have gotten better. He looks like one of the best hitters in baseball. All right, so that's Castianos.

Heath, any standouts for you on Monday? I mean, we should probably just mention Matt Carpenter again. Okay, let's mention Matt Carpenter again. He's pretty good. Fourteen homers since the all-star break, which is a lot. Matt Carpenter, he is currently the number nine hitter in points leagues, number 12 in Roto.

He got 33 home runs. It's a career high. He had a 558 OPS batted 140 in his first 35 games. He has since become, I don't know, maybe the best by-low candidate in fantasy baseball history. If you got him in game 36, because since that point in his last 79 games, Matt Carpenter, 32-year-old Matt Carpenter, has an 1154 OPS, 30 home runs. in 79 games. So, yeah, he's on a 60 homer pace since then. Probably 61, something like that.

When are you going to take Matt Carpenter in 2019? 63 Homer Pace. I would say I have been one of the biggest Matt Carpenter boosters on this podcast. I was boosting him before the breakout. I don't know if that's true. We were all Matt Carpenter boosters besides Adam. It's also not true. I did not say, you cannot tell me that I was not a Mac Carpenter,

but I will tell you specifically what I said, but you can continue. Anyway. Oh, no, this is important to me. I'm not going to let you sully. Like, I was right. I just, like, I don't think I'm going to draft Mac Carpenter next year is where I'm going with this. Because he's going to be coming off the best season of his career by far.

He's not showing any signs of slowing down, but even if he does, he's pretty clearly going to end up with an OPS north of 950. is in 989 right now. I don't want to pay for a guy coming off a career year, especially a guy in his late 30s, especially a guy who's early 30s, especially a guy who's had injury issues that have derailed seasons in the past.

I think we're probably going to see him sneak into like the second third round range, and I think that's probably too much. I don't know what my 2019 rankings are going to look like at this point, but I would guess I'm going to have Matt Carpenter as a late third, early fourth round type pick. And if he's there, then I'm going to take him. But I don't expect he will.

I think Chris is right. He'll probably be – I mean, if he finishes the way he's been going, which I don't expect he will, then he's going to be a second round pick. Yeah, okay, so let's unrap a few things here. First of all, rest of the season – we still have 40 games left approximately. Rest of season is Matt Carpenter a top 20 player or hitter? In head-to-head, I would say yes. Yeah.

Okay, so would you rather have Carpenter or Acuna, rest of the season? Carpenter. Yeah, I feel like you've got to go Carpenter, right? I think so, yeah. I know you're not going to get the steals from him, but... Well, he's been the number two player since Acuna was in the deal in the lead-off spine. His track record's obviously a lot longer. And what I said about Carpenter, obviously was wrong,

is that I still believe that he was a good by-low candidate in a points league, but I didn't think he was a good categories player. I thought he was a borderline five-by-five categories player because he didn't stand out in batting average. He didn't stand out in home runs. He didn't steal any bases. What he was good at was like doubles, extra-base hits, and plate discipline, and on-base percentage. So I thought that's who he was. I was obviously wrong about that.

But please don't say that I was not saying to buy low on Carpenter. I just thought he was really a format-specific player. And in like a standard five-by-five categories league or roto league, I thought he was more of like a number 15-5. first baseman corner infield type player. But obviously, I mean, you know, I'm not going to say I was right. I just, that's how I felt about him. And with that said, I do think it's justifiable to take him in the late second round of a points league next year. Because he's really, really good in that format, even when he's bad, even when he's having a down year.

All right, news and notes for you. The big news. We got a lot of it today. Oh, I forgot to mention who's coming on this show later. I'm sorry about that. So, you know, let me just let you know that we're regulating later. We're regulated in a while. You know, I don't know what you've selected for regulating,

but I hope it's an email that's like a week old. I'm not sure. We got one of the best regulator. Okay, I don't think I have it, Eve, so I'm going to let you include it. I will include it, yes. All right, now. Well, yeah, I know. It's so good.

Now, on to more serious matters here in all seriousness. We wish the best to Leonis Martin. Seems like he is on the path to recovery. He's recovering from a bacterial infection. Brian Dozier left yesterday's game with dizziness. Seth Roberts said that Dozier had an abnormal EKG. So this is obviously something that we need to keep an eye on here for Brian Dozier, and we're going to wish the best for him.

We have more music to play, though, because I'd like to say a hearty welcome back to Robinson Canoe. Mr. Canoe, on behalf of fantasy baseball today. That was really good. Thank you. That's why they gave you the big bucks. Sure. Cano's back. He's eligible to return today.

He's going to play some second, some third, some first. He's 87% own. What are your expectations for Robinson Canoe rest of season? He's going to be Robinson Canoe. That's very not helpful. That's why they pay you the small book. I think Robinson Cano is going to be himself. I think he's a good hitter.

Not a ton of power at this point in his career, but I think he's going to hit right around 280. He's going to be useful, and I would expect they'll find a spot for him in the everyday lineup because with the exception of Gene Seguer, their infield stinks. It's been really bad. Ryan Healy has been awful.

Dee Gordon is having a pre-break out D. Gordon's season. Lowest walk rate, I think, since the 1920s. Yeah, there's room for him to play. And Gordon's a little beat up right now. Yeah. Kanoe is also better in points than Roto, just like Carpenter, not to the same extreme. But before his 80 game suspension, he was the six best second baseman in points,

11th in Roto. And last year he was, I think like 8th in points and also 11th in Roto, something like that. Yeah, I expect something in that rain. I will say, though, at this time of year, especially if you're in a points league and entering the playoffs, I mean, we have one of our leagues that are already in the playoffs, and a couple others are just right around the corner. I would not feel confident inserting Robinson Canoe into a standard points league lineup the first week or two that he's back. I would need to see how much he's playing. Yeah, yeah.

Mike Trout is dealing with a family matter. He may not be available on Thursday when he's eligible to come off the DL. Carlos Martinez is going to pitch out of the bullpen. when he returns, so can we drop Carlos Martinez? I think so, yeah. He's not going to be the closer, I would guess, so I don't see what he's going to do for you. Are you confident that he'll be in the rotation next year?

Yes. Okay. And by the way, we'll talk about bullpen later, but I think maybe you want to hang on to Kenley Jansen. There's even any better chance that he becomes a closer after yesterday's debacle. And Will Myers. You mean Kent to Myida?

Who did I say? Kenley Jansen? I'm sorry. Kenley Jansen did throw yesterday, but yeah, I meant Kent to Maida. There was a rapport yesterday that they're optimistic he can beat the four to six week timetable. And Will Myers came back. He played third base yesterday, and the ball just found him. He had eight assists and one put out yesterday.

That's a busy day at third base. So they've got him. Is this a big deal if he gains third base eligibility, Will Myers? No. I don't think third base is a worse position than first. No. I mean, it's always helpful to have more eligibility. He'll have triple eligibility, right?

First outfield and third. Yeah. So let's get to this email of the day number two. Email of the day number one was way back when. It was about Luis Severino. But here's a quick one. From Ben. Taylor Ward or Danny Jansen for catcher?

I'll go with Danny Jansen. Taylor Ward's numbers are really interesting. Really impressive. He's had a big breakout. at AA and AAA this season. Really good play discipline runs a lot. Really interesting profile for a catcher. I don't know.

Never ran before this season, so I don't even know what's going on with him. So let's talk about who these guys are. Danny Jansen batted ninth for the Blue Jays yesterday. He's up and going to play, it seems. And Ward is going to play third for the Angels. Is that right? Or am I crazy.

Yeah, he hasn't really. really played catcher at all. He hasn't played catcher at all this season. Right. He is catcher eligible. So, yeah, he's catcher eligible. I think he's going to, he should have a decent opportunity to get some,

some playing time for the Angels and great minor league numbers. Yeah, Ward looks like the more interesting profile of the two. Because of the stolen bases, because of the play discipline. I'll go with him. Heath, you said Jansen? I'll say Jansen. What's your level of excitement? for these two. How would you compare them to say Austin Hedges, who's been on the most

added list and has... I'm not particularly excited about either of them for the rest of this season. Long term, I probably like them more than Hedges, but I'd rather have Hedges in my lineup right now. I'm going to add Ward where I've been playing Isaiah Kiner Filafa. Yeah. Good idea. Good idea. Just see, you know, just to see if he can turn into something. Yeah, Torinos, by the way, needs to play more. Like, this is kind of I don't get it. Cherino's another home run yesterday.

Also, these prospects. Tuki Toussaint, six innings, two hits, one run, four strikeouts, six swinging strikes against the Miami Marlins. Sean Reed Foley for the Blue Jays, three runs and five innings, six hits, three walks, three strikeouts. He'll be at the Yankees this weekend if he makes another start. Do you guys know if Reed Foley or Tucson? I know Toussaint was called up for a double-header, but what's the future look like for

these two? Are they possibilities? I don't think Tugie Dousan is going to stay. Well, I'm pretty sure he was sent back down yesterday. Yeah, Tucci Tusson is a much more interesting prospect to me. He is someone that if he was in the rotation, I would like to have on my team and probably starting pretty regularly. I don't know if that happens for another couple weeks.

I read Foley, it was the Royals, and it wasn't that impressive anyway. Can we talk about the ultimate Homer move? Heath He's picked up a royal named Heath It doesn't get more I guess I was destined And started him Oh yeah

We started him in the For the People League Yes Oh okay Good for you Heath Phil Meyer is now on team Well we have Team Creeth is

Is hurting It pitcher right now Well Just trying to limp into the playoffs Good luck Heath Philbite That's what happens At a 16 team league

Now you know You know what Team Creeth should do. You should go to ZipRecruiter.com slash strike, and you should hire a pitcher. And ZipRecruiter is going to make that process so easy for you. They'll go out and find the pitchers that fit your needs. But actually, let's talk seriously about ZipRecruiter. First of all, big thank you to ZipRecruiter for sponsoring our show. Hiring can be very challenging.

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One more time, ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. ZipRecruiter, the smartest way to hire. Back to baseball. Actually, I do want to get to just a few more notes. C.C. Sabathia is on the D.L. Could be a short stay. Danny Duffy's on the D.L. Kenley Jansen, again, we said he could beat his timetable. Brandon Crawford left after taking a knee to the head.

Adrian Beltrane left with a hamstring injury. The same one that's put him on the DL twice this season. So that is a tough break for Beltray, and we hope he gets back, but would not be surprised that it's an extended absence. Gary Sanchez still looking at a late August. or early September return. And I might be jumping the gun with Beltray. I actually don't know what the timetable is.

Just third time injuring the hamstring. It's just, I guess. And, you know, you see where I'm going with that. Any interesting bullpen developments for you guys yesterday? Bullpen. I have nothing to add right now. I'm not going to force you. I'm sorry.

Be yourself. Bud Norris Blue is a save. He'd been pitching well. I'm sure he's still the closer. Coda Glover came in in a tie game the ninth inning, gave up a walk-off home where the Nationals' bullpen is a mess. They desperately need Herrera or do a little back. Blake Parker pitched in a 6-2 game.

They were up 6-2-n-same situation. He gave up a home run. Scott Alexander was dreadful. He's 36-0. He's really just not having that good of a year, but they don't have a lot of options in the Dodgers bullpen. Blew a game for Kershaw, who pitched great. And that's why I think Maida has a shot at getting saves. Good stuff, though.

Jose LaClerc, Willie Peralta, and Robert Gepard. Gazelman got saves. How would you rank LeClerc, Paralta, Gazelman? I think you did, because LeClerc's the only one that I really have a lot of interest in. Peralta and Giselman, both kind of closers on bad teams, but I think Peralta gets a higher percentage of those save chances than Giselman. Yeah, I think they're all sort of similar-ish. Maybe LeCirk's a little better, but I have more confidence in him getting the next five saves for his team. All right, let's look at the trustometer. Zero to ten on the trusto-mere.

Now, I already know that Heath is not really going to want to play along, but I'm going to make them. What do you mean? You're going to say, if I start a guy, I start a guy. It's not a matter how much I trust him. No, I am O meter man. I will give you numbers. Chris is going to give you the long-winded explanation with no number. Doesn't sound like me at all.

I have to. Have to get the clip of dumb and dumber. I've been meaning to do this. You know, I'll see if I can do it on YouTube and just use it. But in the meantime, I'll do that while... While you guys deliberate. Okay. How much do you trust them when you start them?

Because these guys get started. But you put them in your lineup. They're pitching tonight. How much do you trust them? Zero to ten. Madison Bumgarner. Ten. A hundred.

Mike Fultenevich. Four. Six. You guys are not deliberating. By the way, would you want to trade if you still could make a trade? What do you think about Bumgarner? Do you see a reason to try to sell high with his... Oh, my God.

271 ERA, 370. Can I... This has nothing to do with the question you just asked. No, it does. I... I heard Clayton Kershaw when you said Madison, Bumgarner. That's on me. I thought it was the playoffs.

That was the playoffs. That's not how that works. I'll change my... 100 to an 8 for Madison Baumgartner. So what do you think about? I'm not necessarily trying to sell him though. Yeah, there are

reasons to be concerned, I guess. I mean, he still goes out and gives you a good start every time out, but the walks up, the strikeouts down. Looks like the kind of guy that we'd be worried about if he were at Madison Bumgarner, right? And even before we've talked about it, even before the injury last year and then after the injury, he looked

like a diminished pitcher. He's had a fip in the high threes. Two straight years now. For God's give me the damn number! That's it. I did. We already gave you. I know. I know you did. You could have saved it for just a moment ago. The thing

with Mad Bum, because I do think there's reason to be concerned about him being a top five or top ten, maybe even starting pitcher. But the strikeouts are down since the start of last year. He has almost a full season worth of starts over the last two years. 30 starts.

190.2 inning. So that's still doing good on a per start basis for innings. He has a 3.070 RA with a 385-fip, 116 whip. The strikeouts may not come back. I still think he's a very solid number two starter, and I don't think you can get anything close to more than that for him right now.

Sure. I don't know. Maybe you can get a hitter that's better than him. Not what I mean? Yeah, I mean, I don't know, like, what the ranking is. low end number two sounds all right to me because I do think he'll prevent runs and base runners pretty well. Yeah. All right.

Let's go back to the Tristometer. You said four or five for Fultenevich, I believe. Andrew Heaney. Andrew Heaney, two runs in seven and a third at San Diego yesterday. Strikeouts are down for Heaney. 32 strikeouts over 38 and two thirds in his last six starts. He'll be at Texas this weekend. Trustometer on Heaney.

Four. Yeah. And this is going to expose a little bit of my Fultenevich doubt, but I'm going to go one higher than I did on him. I'll say five. Perfect opportunity, Adam, and you missed it. No, it wasn't quite. Come on.

He wasn't lingering enough. Marco Gonzalez. I'll give him a four. Yeah, I know he wasn't great yesterday. Has he struggled lately? Two starts in a row. Pretty damn bad. And I thought it was all about the park factor.

even though he's a groundball pitcher, not a flyball pitcher. But he's been so good at home. He's been good at pitchers parks. He's been really bad at hitters parks. And he sucked yesterday. At Oakland, four runs on eight hits and five innings. Yeah, I guess I have to go with a three for him just because Haney was a four, and I don't think he's as good as Haney.

We don't trust these guys very much, and they're all owned and started in most leagues. How about Shamaniah? Well, most of them are two-star pitchers this week. That is true. If not all of them. So, like, if you're asking me, if I trust these guys in a two-star week, they'd all be tens, except for maybe Fulte. I don't get Sean Maniah at all. I don't understand how he has a 34-4-E-R-A with a 6.05k per 9 and a 44% ground ball rate.

I don't get it at all. So, listen, he's been good. If he was on my team, I'd probably just keep starting him, but I wouldn't call it trust. I'll give him a four. It's weird because he gets a lot of swing strikes. I'll say two. I trust him the least of anybody in this group. I mean, it's pretty...

I'm pretty much only starting him in two-star weeks or with good matchups. Okay, so when none of Fultenevichini, Marco Gonzalez, or Shamanaya, get more than a five on the trust of... Hey, whoa, whoa! I gave Fulte a six, sir. Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry, a six. it's a statement about how many trustworthy starting pitchers there actually are. Because all of these guys, I mean, just look at the raw numbers, have been pretty solid,

if not better than that. I mean, Fulton never's been great this year. You know what I mean? And I, you know, it's easy. Go ahead, go ahead. The Fulte thing might just, that might just be unfair. We should probably trust him more than we do. He's been awesome.

I'm moving up my rankings. Tons of strikeouts. He's going to get in the top 50s. Above average. Yeah, like he should be higher than that, I think. You know, you look at what he's done this year and the improvements that he's made. I would probably rather start Madison Bumgarner, but it might depend on the matchup. That's not a guarantee.

Wow. Not to get Scott White on you, but he's kind of the reverse of Sean Minaya. Well, yeah, no, it's really interesting. He has basically the same swinging strike rate as Sean Miner. I am. They're both 10. I think Manai is like 10.2% and Fulte's 10.4%. But Fulte does have a lower contact percentage. So he induces more swing than misses when he gets swings. But it's just like 28% strikeout rate close to average control, which has been, you know, an issue for him at times in his career. He's improved his ground ball rate. Like he has a 286 ERA and a 353 FIP and a 377 CERRA.

Like, all of that points to him being at least an above average pitcher. I don't think there are times when I'm going to sit fully. I don't quite understand it. But the track record is what it is. So in fantasy baseball, there's such a difference between the great pitchers and then everyone else. And there's such a huge tier of pitchers, right? Like, all of these pitchers are basically in the same tier. You know what my favorite is?

At least it was, was Heaney. I mean, Madbom's the clear favorite. Oh, no, forgetting about him. Fultenevich, Heaney, Marco Gonzalez, and Mania. Heaney was the one I trusted the most. Strikeouts are down, and I don't know if he's wearing down. It's a big innings boost from what he's had in recent seasons. I mean, it's been like four seasons since he's thrown this much, right?

Yeah, something like that. So you've got to do whatever you can. You can't do it now, really, but. to package these guys and try to get, you know, one really reliable pitcher. I do have Hini ranked the highest of this group. Fulte's right there with him. And then Ia and Mark Corbott. It's also a question of like, what does the word trust me?

Because like, I don't know. Well, no, I'm looking through the rankings. I think it's an interesting, it's an interesting question because I think I can get to number 17 before looking at Scott's ranking released. Is that because Jose Barrios is 18th? Right. Like, can you trust? But no, but that's not, like, that's not my anti-Hose-Brios thing, although James and Tione is better. What does the word trust mean if it applies to Jose Burrios? Who's been as inconsistent as any good pitcher in baseball this season?

I think what it means is. Like, I'm not sitting him. Right. You know that there may be a bad game. Like, David Price. I trust David Price. He's going to have bad outings, but I still trust him. Mike Clevenger was pretty garbage last night, despite the results in getting the stupid win. But I trust Mike Clevenger. Yeah, me too. I was going to put him on the trustometer. I forgot, but Clevenger would be second on the list beyond Bumgarner, right? Yeah, I get on Heath's. Like, I'm looking, I think I get to number 26 before I start thinking about sitting guys.

That's Robbie Ray? Yeah, like Miles McClest, I'm probably just start. I'm probably not, if I don't have him on any of my teams, whoops. But if I did, I think at this point there's no opponent where I'm looking at and say, well, I think I probably need to sit at. Right. Maybe at Cores. Yeah, at Colorado, whatever. Or maybe like if they go to Boston. But Robbie Ray, I'm thinking about sitting him against the 15th worst offense.

Just that's where... The problem with Robbie Ray is, his is not dependent on who he's facing. Sure. And the same with Nick Povetta. The same with Zach Godley. That's the range where I think there are probably 25-ish pitchers who I'm not. not sitting. At this point, I fully trust godly, you know, for better or worse.

For now. And Tyone as well. Yeah, sure. I'm starting him. By the way, I would characterize trust as a fiduciary relationship in which one person holds the title to property for the benefit of another. That's just, you know. What about blind trust? Who do you have blind trust?

Like four hedgers? Blind trust? No, it's got more than that. Blind trust in Scherzer, Sale, Verlander, Kershaw, Klobber. The Grom, Cole, Nola Bauer, 10. Nola Bauer, yeah. Eight or nine pitchers. And Grinky and Carlos Carachan.

I do not have blind trust in Granky. So, Berrios is when you get to the. Burrios is the blind trust. No, mine is now Sendergarde at 12. I blind trust him. I don't blind trust Zeverino. I don't blind trust Granky on the road. I blind trust him

This is super helpful Yeah this is great Okay moving on moving on This is a light show today Trending up These hitters are trending up Give me your quick thoughts I have made

The worst trade I've ever made in my life Mitch Hanager For Kentimaeata In a league that doesn't have saves As a category by the way So Hanager Since I traded him Became the leadoff hitter

He's batting 545 with one home run And six doubles In five games as a leadoff hitter Miguel And Duhar has been Red Hottie homered again yesterday. Miguel And Duar has only four weeks this year with more than 17 fantasy points, but all four of those weeks have been just monstrous weeks. Jose Martinez has been very good, 11 for his last 20 with a home run and a double. And then deeper leagues.

Oh, Michael Conforto. Michael Conforto has been good. Of course, I dropped him. Six for 17 with two home runs in his last five games and a double. Devin Travis has been pretty good lately. And Brad Keller had a nice start. yesterday and he's at the White Sox this weekend, 23% owned. Hanager and Duhar, Jose Martinez, Michael Confordo, Devin Travis.

They're trending up, and what do we think about any or all of them? It's good to hear that Devin Travis is back in the majors. I wasn't aware. Sure is. Yeah, I never really got too down on Mitch Hanigur, so I'm glad that he's performing and having a hot streak right now, but he is a top 30 outfielder for sure and maybe top 25. And Dohar is really interesting to me,

mostly because he makes me think of a song from high school that was very, very, I don't know any of the words to it. It was like just screaming sounds that I never knew the actual words. And you guys know what song I'm talking about. I have no idea. Yeah, I don't. What I'm thinking of is like, And Dohar, Andrew Har, Andrew Har. No, I could, I could.

make the sounds, but they won't be the right words because I've never known the words. I have no idea. You have to... Oh, Duhast. Host. Duh. And, do, du Hustmish. Yeah, that's Romsstein.

Romstein. And Duhar, yeah. He might win Rookie of the year, by the way. And, um... Oh, who's going to win it? Oh, please tell me. Oh, is he? Because look at their numbers.

has been garbage lately he's had a d l stint he's had less time up than mcgale and dohar tell me make fun of me all you want tell me and du har might not make fun of you oh please i heard the snickering i giggled you know what you know what doha's mish means in in german in that song i would assume rookie of the year it means you you hate you hate me and that's how i feel so you guys romsdied me um yeah he's interesting he doesn't really do anything except for like his home runs and doubles. Do you know who leads American League rookies in war? I have shocking.

No, I don't. Shohie O'Hawah Toney. Joey Wendell leads all hitters. All right, anyway. McGilland Duhar's second. I don't fully trust Miguel, Ann DuHard, do you? I don't yet.

No. By the way, I'm only like 50% sure that's what Duhas Bish translates to. That's just what I heard in high school. Jose Martinez? Does he deserve to be 91% owned? He has started like nine games in a row, right? That's the thing, is like, if he's playing every day, then absolutely.

So part of it is they had a DH, but also I think the fam trade opened up outfield opportunities. Well, the fam trade and then the Fowler injury and then the Tyler O'Neill injury. Sure. Okay. Although Tyler Allen, I think, is expected back in the next couple of days. Okay, that's Jose Martinez. He deserves to be owned. How about Devin Travis?

Any interest there? 7% owned last 14 days. He's under-owned. Yeah. And I don't think, like, he had that stretch in his rookie year that even he didn't believe in. I don't think you should expect anything like that. But he should be at least 20, 25%. And Michael Conforto, 72% out.

I think he's underowned. Just going to skip over the royal. I was going to do the pitcher last. Brad Taylor, 23% owned. Maybe under-owned. He's under-owned because of a SPARP eligibility. And it was a two-star week, I assume, but... Yeah, no, Scott liked him a lot.

Not a lot. Scott liked him amongst the low-owned guys in two-start pitchers, and so far off to a good start. Got a win yesterday, had a very good start. But he doesn't strike anybody yet. Great ground ball pitcher. I don't think anybody's starting him next week against Cleveland. but at the White Sox this weekend in a daily league, Brad Keller could help.

Trending down, and Chris, if you wouldn't mind, maybe you could look up what do Hashmish means? I'd like to know. Trending down, do these guys deserve to be owned in 90% of leagues? Matt Olson and Matt Kemp. Oh, Matt Olson just drives me crazy because I'm going to say no, and then he's going to have a week where he's hit six home runs. he's just the type of player that you're not going to get even production from and so there's going to be frustrating times like this he's probably a little bit over-owned though maybe this is stupid if you're like in second place in a roto league

and there's no point in finishing second and you just need to finish no let's say you're in fourth or whatever you just need this random guy who could get hot and have a 15 homer month or something that's a lot 12 homer month. Matt Olson to me seems like a guy that's super, super cheap. For sure. That you could pursue. Yeah, but if you're in first place by like 25 points and you're just trying to hold on and hope you didn't jinx yourself, this isn't the guy you'd want to start. Okay.

Matt Camp is way over-owned. He is sat four of the last eight games. He's been terrible since the All-Star break. Benching him, since he's such a bad defender, benching him seems like the way to solve the log jam for the, for the, for the, for the, Dodgers. Now, if Dozier's out, the log jam kind of clears up a little bit, but Kemp at 90% guys seems seems high to me. Yeah, they've got like 10 or 11 players right now.

They should be playing over Matt Kemp. Stephen Piscotti, 60% owned. Since the All-Star break, he's batting 222 with three home runs. That was before yesterday when he went 0-4-3. So he is slugging 281 in August, again, before yesterday. Stephen Piscotti, 60% owned. Should we give up or stick around? I think it's fine to drop him

I probably would not drop him in a five outfielder league There are probably some leagues where Stephen Piscotti is owned And Michael Conforto is not rectify that But it doesn't mean you the must drop All right, what's it mean? Duhast, I'm looking at a translation on genius.com I believe it's you have me You have.

Interesting. Well, I don't feel that way about you guys. I like the better when it was you hate me. All right, emails. And I've got, you got me. You got me. All right. I mean, same.

Changes the song. Same thing. Pat from Canada. Can Ray Searidge fix Chris Archer? Feel free to speculate wildly. I think maybe the answer is that we shouldn't put quite as much trust in these pitching gurus as we do. because they work with some types of pitchers and not with others. Like we've seen Garrett Cole become a much better pitcher since leaving Pittsburgh.

And Charlie Morton. In fact, I feel like the Padres have completely gone 360, or the Pirates, rather, 360 from a team that you wanted a pitcher to go to to a team you don't. I think it depends on the pitcher. Counterpoint. Don't they want you to pitch to contact? Isn't that their thing? They, yeah, they like the fastball.

fastballs and they want low fastballs and low fastballs tend to be the fastballs that Tyler Glassnow has actually talked about this since leaving Tampa is that he wanted to pitch up in the zone the Razor team that wants to pitch up in the zone that's where he feels like he's most effective and the pirates wanted him to pitch down in the zone and like looking at Fangraph's pitch values which certainly aren't everything Chris Archer's fastball has had a negative pitch value each of the last three years. But that could be a result. We know what the issue with Chris Archer has been,

which has been home runs. That could be the result of him throwing too many fastballs up in the zone. Maybe he's going for swings and misses, and that's leading to, you know, maybe that was the issue. It's possible that Ray Searge will fix him. That's what I'm saying. My counterpoint would be

anytime you have a pitcher that you think is very, very talented and underperforming that talent and goes to a new team, there is a chance regardless of whether it's Ray Searage or whoever else, that just doing something very different, some small philosophical change, can't unlock that talent, like what we saw happen with Garrett Cole. Well, Archer, I don't think he has enough of an arsenal personally.

But also, I think it's a good thing that he's with pirates. Forget about Ray Searage. He has been terrible against the A.L. East. He sucks at Yankee Stadium. He sucks at Canter Yards. He sucks at Fenway Park. I'm not quite sure about the Rogers Center. this is a good thing for Chris Archer.

He does appear to be throwing a sinker since getting to Pittsburgh. He needs a change up. He needs a change up. It's just not good enough. He's a better change up. This is from Corey and Rhode Island. Hey, Jackie, Andrew, and Mookie. Red Sox Out of others.

I need a Votto replacement. I'm in the playoffs right now. Looking at these first baseman or third baseman, I can switch Gallo to first. Josh Bell, Ryan Braun, Steve Pierce, Camargo, Flores, Jerko. Would you replace Votto with any of those guys? Bell, Braun, Pierce.

Votto's not expected back in the lineup for the next couple of days, right? I don't know. I didn't know that. I apologize. I could be wrong. You would know better than I would. No, no. Not this version of me.

No, okay, no, he's playing. He was missing time last three last week last year. But he's not healthy. He is back. I did know that. I thought I missed. I think Ryan Brown's the obvious answer here. He's been hitting really well since the All-Star break.

You talk about someone who's going to be an out of the lineup, but I think he's the best hitter of this group. And to clear up the Joey Votto mess, he did come back. He was removed in the sixth inning last night, due to an apparent entry. Wonderful. This is an email from Nolan. He says, hey, Matt, Will, Evan,

and Justin, Will with 1L, like Myers, Matt, Will, Evan, and Justin. Are those like... Those are third baseman. Oh, okay. I'm looking to grab a starting pitcher for the stretch run. Who do you like most between Ryu, Glassnow, Stroman, Gosman, Boyd, Waiver, Gibson, Lucasey? Rew, Glass Now, Stromen, Gosman, Boyd Weaver, Gibson, Lucasey. I like Glass Now as upside the best.

I think chances are in a points league, Stroman is the best. I think Glass Now and Gosman would be the... two that I would go with. What about Gibson? What's that? Gibson. What about him? Kyle Gibson.

Yeah. He'll be right there with Stroman, I think. I think the other two have better, more upside. I think Gibson's more of a mid-to-high-3s-ZRA guy. You're hoping that Gosman can become what he was in the second half of 2016. I don't know if you guys talked about this yesterday, but I mentioned it in a way of our call. He has lowered his arm slot. No, we did not talk about that.

Since getting to Atlanta. over the last couple of years his arm's slot had gone up and it's back down to where it was in the 2016 range. Now, I don't look, it's Kevin Gosman. He had a bad start with the Braves. He had a good start with the Braves. That sounds like Kevin Gosman. But he was really good in 2016.

Overall and in the second half, he was really, really good. He's throwing a splitter a lot more in the two starts with Atlanta. I think he is the most upside besides Tyler Glassknack. All righty, let's go to the matchups and then do the regulation. Yoli, Chasine and Jose Cantana. I don't think I can start Chasin against the Cubs. I am starting Cantana. Why?

Has the Brewer's offense, like, fallen apart lately? He gave up five runs at the Royals last time out. The Royals are good. Actually, I mean, the truth is, Kentana has been mostly good for his last. Last six. I don't think he's like an automatic. Okay, fine.

Stark and Tana Stich just seen. Jalen Beeks at Jhap. I want to see Jailen Beaks, but I don't think I can start him. Starr Japh. Yeah. Rick Porcelo at Nick Povetta. Start of Horcello. Start of both.

I can't trust Pett against the Red Sox. Jason Vargas at Andrew Cashner. No, thank you. Yeah, no. Corey Klober at Sal Romano. Cluber. Start Colory, Cluber. No Gialito, no Blaine Hardy.

Trevor Richards at Anabal Sanchez. Please don't say Trevor Richards is interesting. Just say start or sit. No, thank you. Trevor Richards is interesting, but I'll sit him. What about Anabal? Okay, definitely start him. Corbin at Gallardo.

Yes, Corbyn, no, Gallardo. Armand Marquez at Justin Verlander. Yeah. Sort of them. You start both. Jameson Tion at Jaco-Oter-Easy. Start Tion. Gio Gonzalez at John Gantz.

Nah, not for me. I don't think I would. Yeah, this early in the week, I'd have a hard time trusting Gio, but I could understand if you did. Lucky Ryan Baruchy or Heath Fillemeyer. Well, I mean, if you can get Heath Wilmire or your team, go get him. I think you start Burrowski. I'm starting Baroquee. Pax, then, yes, Mike Fires against the Mariners.

No, thank you. Jaime Barria against Brett Kennedy. I'm fine starting, Berea. I know Heath is. Andrew Suarez at Alex Wood. I'll start Wood. Yep. Yeah, well.

Super loud intro. Oh, yeah. Blue everybody's ear out. It's my bad. Let's regulate. Dom in Hempstead, Maryland. I am the commissioner of a long time, 10 team, 5x5. N.F.

Hold on. Hold on. There we go. All right. I'm the commissioner of a long time. Ten team five-by-five NL auction keeper league. It's a roto league. Our transactions are primarily waivers.

We use FAB to bid only on American League players going to the National League. The amount bid for each player also represents the salary for that player. For any successful bids over $24, the team must either keep that player for next year at that salary or release him prior to the draft. and take a penalty, blah, blah, blah. All right. Since we had already completed some bids last week, I confirmed with each team the amount of fab they had left prior to the bid. Three bids were received for Jonathan's scope.

The high bid was $55, followed by bids of $24 and $5. It turns out that the team that bid $55 only had $46 left because they had won a bid in a previous week. Since the $46 would have still been the high bid, should I give that team scope for 46? Should I go to the team with the second highest bid? Should that guy be disqualified because he exceeded his budget? What would you do?

The guy only had 46 bucks left. He bid $55. What do you do? I think. First of all, you should leave the music playing under this. I don't know why you don't. And I think you either give him the $46 player, but scope is a $55.

dollar player for next year's cap. Oh. Or he can't have the plan. There's no either or with the regulators. Mount up. A $55 bid when you only have $46 available is an illegal bid. Whoever bid $24 gets Jonathan's

Cope. Love it. Reculating. You need an overdraft fee. This is from Brian. 10 team keeper league. Do you recommend changing the divisions year to year or always keeping them the same? I don't think there should be divisions. But if you're going to have divisions,

I would keep them the same. I agree. All right, this is from Mikey in Connecticut. Our league is an auction keeper league that allows for 10 players to be kept. We allow for a limited amount of draft money to be traded. Neither owner in this deal had been eliminated from playoff contention at the time of the deal. All right, here's the problem. Owner A offered Shohei Otani with two other players and draft money.

In return, he would get sale and two other players from owner B. The straight-up deal would have been fine, but owner B, would not have accepted it. Owner A offered this stipulation. At season's end, we swap Salin Otani back to each other. Basically a loan for the rest of the season. Some think it's collusion. Some think it's fine.

What say the fantasy regulators? I don't believe in loans in fantasy baseball. I believe loans are a form of collusion. I think it's very interesting to do a European soccer-style loan system. but until you do, this is collusion. It's obviously collusion. Regulated. Heath, what's the last one? Best regulator email maybe we've ever gotten.

And this is from Richard in San Francisco. My dad plays in a points league that rewards a few defensive statistics. Outfield assists, caught stealing, and double plays. Double plays are worth one point, the same as an RBI. The rules are structured to reward second base shortstop and third basemen, who start slash turn a double play. The first baseman does not receive credit. However, my dad realized a few years back,

the system only withholds the double play credit if you're rostered at first base, meaning if you roster a first baseman in the outfield or at third base or anywhere else, he gets those points for catching the end of a double play. No one else has realized this. And my dad has basically taken a draft strategy, I'm now paraphrasing,

taking a draft strategy of drafting second baseman, shortstop, and first baseman, and playing them at a variety of different positions. He argues that anyone could have discovered or exploited this bug, but in my mind, it's a blatant violation of the spirit of the rules. Beyond that, it's kind of lame for first baseman catching a throw to get points. What do you say? Is my dad a genius, or is he undermining the integrity of the league? He's a genius, but now you stop it.

He is a genius. This guy's not in the league. His dad just told him about it. The answer to the question is, yes. He is a genius, and he's undermining the integrity of the league. But don't go tell his league mates about it. Let him keep dominating this league until the dummies figure it out. Gosh, I don't know.

I have integrity here. I can't do that. I can't. I just feel like I've got to speak up. Maybe at the end of the season. But, ah, now, screw. I don't know. I'm on the fence.

It should not be allowed. The best part is he's been doing this for multiple years and no one has figured out. Yeah, that's crazy. That's crazy. All right, so what's the final verdict? It's fine that he's done it because he's not cheating. But it's obviously, you know, kind of shady.

What should Dad do? Dad, keep winning. He's won two years in a row. He's going for the three-peat this year. Get that championship. Yeah, and then maybe in the off-season be like, hey, guys. It's not been realized, but. No.

Yeah, I'm with Chris. Be a good person. Don't be like Assassin's Creeth. Be a good person. Do Hashmish. All right, we're out of here. Talk to you on Wednesday. We're so hip on fantasy baseball today.