Fantasy Baseball Today - 08/23 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Fantasy Baseballin' with Al Melchior!

Episode Date: August 23, 2017

Remember Al!? He's back on the show to talk about shortstop Josh Donaldson (2:30), players with good schedules, why Eddie Rosario is underowned (6:40) and plenty more ... Thoughts on Lucas Giolito (8:40), struggling studs (14:00) like Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Nola and Jimmy Nelson, and Gary Sanchez vs. Buster Posey (19:45) this year and beyond ... A number of SPs are nearly universally-owned, but should they be (36:33)? How good is Eugenio Suarez (45:21) and what do we expect from a slumping Tommy Pham going forward (49:03)? Also a look at today's matchups at the end of the show ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Josh Donaldson, the shortstop. More on that in a moment. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today, normal show. Adam Scott and Al with you here. We're going to talk about some red hot twins. Lucas Gialito's 2017 debut. Wait, did I just say Adam Scott and Al? Yeah, he said a normal show.

Force of habit, Al. Al Belkeur. Tweets from 2011. Yeah, right? What's up, Al Belkeur? How you do it? Hey, do it great. Fun to be back.

It is awesome to have you here Where he was back What Scott was about a month ago You hosted the show Scott Yeah right during the All-Star break It was a two of us joined by Chris midway through Yeah I wasn't there Who cares I wasn't there

I don't care It doesn't happen When Adam's not When Adam's there It doesn't really happen And it just so happens That we have plenty to talk about From yesterday

But before we get to that Are you hiring With zipRecruiter.com You can post your job to 100 plus job sites, including social media networks like Facebook and Twitter. You can do that all with a single click. So try it for free at ziprecruiter.com slash strike. That's ziprecruiter.com slash strike.

All right, Al. It's good to have you on. Good to be here. Update us on your life. Well, rounding out with just, what, five weeks left in the season, a little more than five weeks. First season, post-CBS. Been busy, fanrag sports, fan graphs. My own blog, Almelkier.com, the weekly matchup report.

That's a subscription newsletter. That's all that's been keeping me busy. Oh, and Fanrag Fantasy Baseball on Fantasy Sports Network. Yes, yes. You're a podcaster now? I am. I hope you've learned a lot from your time with us that you've brought into your... You think of Adam as a mentor for you.

It taught me everything I know. You got a mentor, though, just like a by example. Exactly. Yeah. We sit down and, you know, have a seminar or anything. All right, let's talk baseball. Al, I'll let you lead the show. What's the big story that you want to talk about on this Wednesday afternoon?

You know, there is so much to get to here. Well, you know, let's start with the Josh Donaldson thing. Because, you know, even if you're not in the thick of it and your races this year, I mean, that's a big, potentially big impact for next year. And I was surprised because I got a Twitter question a couple days ago about whether or not Donaldson was going to continue to play shortstop. And I said, oh, this has just got to be a temporary thing. And then like an hour after that, I saw a report that you might be playing there regularly. So that seems to be the case for right now.

So I think it puts on close to a par with Carlos Correa for next year. If he gets 20 games, you think it's likely he'll get that many? Right now we're just looking at five for this year. He's at four right now. He gets one more, he'll be shortstop eligible to close out 2017. But it'll take 15 beyond that for 2018. And, you know, maybe, but. Yeah, I'll take the under on it, but it is a possibility.

It's not crazy talk at this point. I think he's clearly top five just rest of this season. He gets that one more game. Right. Yeah. Top five or top two? Well, because you're going to get Trey Turner back pretty soon. You're going to get Carlos Correa back hopefully in a couple weeks.

I mean, I think I'm guessing we'd take Machado over Donaldson, but who else? I would take – Yeah, sorry, go ahead, Scott. I would take Correa over him, and I think you could make a case for – when Turner comes back. You can make a case for him in Roto. I think Lindor is still in the discussion. I'd take Donaldson over him, I guess, but not by a huge amount. Okay, not to be annoying, but if Donaldson's going to have even one more week than Correa, I mean, I feel like I would have to take Donaldson, you know?

You know what? I'll agree because I think that they're – first of all, we don't know if Correa is going to be at 100% of what he was before the injury. So you've got to take that into account too. And I think they're close enough, even assuming that Correa is back at full steam, that I would agree with that. So for you, Al, it would be just Machado ahead of Donaldson, or what? I agree with Scott on Turner. On Turner. But, yeah, just those two.

All right, man, it's crazy. I mean, what a game changer. What a friggin game changer. And Jose Batiste is now third base eligible, by the way. He's the, based on what he's done so far, the number 17 third baseman in points league's number 28 in Roto. Isn't it funny? Because when Al was last on, we were talking about Freddie Freeman just gaining third base eligibility and where he ranks among third baseman. Isn't it funny how it seems like defense for a while there was becoming, the emphasis on it was increasing,

but it seems like the last couple years managers have been more willing to play players out of position. At premium positions, we had Freeman for a while there. Anthony Rizzo played an inning at third base last night. It throws left-handed. But he got an inning there, and of course he got the second base eligibility for weird reasons, but still we have Manny Machado shortstop eligible last year. It's kind of funny and kind of annoying, frankly, that so many great players can be eligible, so many positions.

Defense is overrated. Offense wins. Maybe it seems like it's skewing that way again based on manager behavior. Yeah. All right, let me guide us through the rest of the show here because we're rusty. Nobody knows when to speak. So I'm going to give you guys three stand.

end-outs from Tuesday. And you tell me if they should be owned in more leagues. Eddie Rosario homered again. He's batting 300 with 18 home runs. Eddie Rosario is 67% owned. Jorge Polanco is 10% owned. He homered for the third straight game. And he's batting 382 in August with three home runs.

And Lucas Gialito had an okay start. He gave up three homers. Four runs and six innings. No walks, four strikeouts for Gialito against the twins. Gellito is 52% owned. Eddie Rosario, 67%. Jorge Polanco, 10. percent, Lucas Gialito, 52%.

Al, do you think these guys should be owned in more leagues? I don't know about Gialito. That's actually, that number looks about right to me. But I would say for the two twins, yeah, definitely, and especially Eddie Rosario. And I wrote a piece earlier this week for Fanrag about five players who have really good schedules, rest of season, in terms of their venues. Rosario was one of them, and he's already hot. So Rosario and Max Kepler, both being lefties, of course, same team. Those, they both hit really well at Target Field, and they're going to a lot of parks that favor left-handed batter.

So to me, Eddie Rosario, given what he's done recently, and not just very recently, but over the last couple of months, on top of a really favorable schedule going ahead, I think he should be, you know, 85, 90% owned at this point. And I understand this time of season, not everybody is picking up. players, but I still think he should be much more owned. Scott White. Yeah, I agree he should be more owned. I actually was working on my outfield rankings, rest of season rankings, before the podcast, and I moved Rosario up to about 60th there, which I know doesn't sound particularly high, but it's ahead of players who I know are much more owned than he is. Oh, like, oh, what's a good example? Cargo.

Swarber. Yeah, definitely. For goodness sake. Obiselle Garcia. Yeah. You know, it's kind of what, and I feel like what's happened to Rosario is kind of what we're saying with Jonathan's scope yesterday. It's not that he's a radically different player. He still has the same strengths and weaknesses.

Just at age 25, he's gotten stronger. And you add power to what he already had, and it's made him mixed league relevant. All right, yeah. Would you rather have Rosario or Jose Baltista? who's had like one good week in his last eight. I still start him. Why am I starting Jose Batista? I don't know.

I'd rather have Rosario. To be, it's a no-brainer. What the hell is the matter with me? I got fooled. He had a good week, like two weeks ago. I got fooled. Why am I starting you, Jose Batista? All right.

So there's actually a lot of news that we need to get to. Lucas Gialito, though, at 52%. Would you start him this weekend against Detroit? Scott White, Lucas Gialito against Detroit. I needed to see more in that first start. I was impressed that he didn't walk anybody because that's been his biggest problem in the minors the last two years. But he also has seen his velocity drop in the miners the last two years. He averaged about 93 on his fastball, which isn't low, but it's about average for a starting

pitcher these days. And I just, I don't think with all the home runs he gave up, it's enough to change my perception of him as a prospect whose stock was sinking rapidly. All righty. So here's the big news. Chris Bryant is day-to-day with a bruised hand. Let me just tell you guys had a really tough day yesterday with fantasy baseball. Fantasy baseball hated me yesterday. Some of the players on my important teams include Chris Bryant, Jason Kipness, Cody Bellinger, who I started this week, Kelvin Herrera. It was a bad day. A lot of, like, annoying injuries. So Bryant's day-to-day, hopefully we'll be back missing at most one game. Danny Salazar on the deal with elbow stiffness and Alex Wood on the deal with shoulder

inflammation. Scott, do either Salazar or Wood seem like they'll be out a while? Well, I know Salazar's MRI checked out, so I suspect they'll both be back within a couple weeks, mid-September, I would say. They're worth stashing. All righty, that's Wood and Salazar. Carlos Correa took batting practice yesterday. Cody Bellinger is on the DL. Joey Gallo is on the seven-day concussion DL. I saw this note, Al. How could this be true? This has to be false. But it was on a reputable website. I won't even say the website because I'm so sure it's false. J.D. Martinez has homered against every MLB team. Could that possibly be true? He homered against the Mets yesterday. It's close enough to believable that if you've sought a reputable place,

I would believe it. But yeah, I wouldn't have expected that. In his career. In his career, not this year. He doesn't have 29 home runs. How is that possible? This definitely happened, apparently. I think it's possible. Interleague play. Yeah, exactly. And now he's, you know, he already has 10 home runs as a diamond back this year.

I can't, I mean, that's amazing to me that he's homered against every team. He's been in the National League for a month. Or like two or whatever, but still. All right, so I guess I'll let it go. MLB.com is where I saw that. Good job, MLB.com. Jackie Bradley day to day with an injured thumb. Jackie Bradley's heating up, so let's hope he gets back out there.

Congratulations, Aaron, Judge. You did not strike out. out. You ended your 37 game streak. Al Malkiore, what are your feelings on Mr. Aaron Judge, other than the fact that he just looks great in pinstripes? I think he'll look great in your fantasy box score, too, at some point again, this season. I mean, he's just been a player of extremes this year, but I think he's going to be able to bring that strikeout rate down eventually.

It was quite a bit better in the minor leagues, and that wasn't great, but I think he's You get down to the mid-20s, whether it's rest of the season this year or next year. And I'm keeping them in my lineup. Okay. What round are you taking Aaron Judge next year at a 12-team league? I'd go for me in the second. Ooh. Okay.

Okay. Cool. Which is what we've all been saying. Yeah. You didn't need to make the shocks noise at him. I initially was thinking third round. But yeah, he probably deserves to be the second round. late second, I'm thinking.

Jason Kipnis left with hamstring tightness. He's had hamstring issues already this year. Kelvin Herrera left with forearm tightness. Johnny Quato made a rehab start, and Max Scherzer is expected to start Friday, and Heath and I actually interviewed Max Scherzer yesterday for the Fantasy Football Today podcast. I encourage you to listen to it. I ask him about Gio Gonzalez. I asked him about DH or no DH.

He wouldn't really take a side. I wanted him to take a side. He said he didn't care. Just everybody should have the same rules. What he should have said is no DHS. DHS are terrible. But listen to the Max Scherzer interview. It's going to air tomorrow in the Fantasy Football Today podcast.

Here's a category of a new section called What the Heck? Doug Fister and Kyle Gibson. Fister, complete game, one run, 6K is at Cleveland. Gibson, seven innings, one run, eight strikeouts at the White Sox. What the heck, Scott White? Was what we said about Doug Fister yesterday when we were looking ahead to to Tuesday's matchups. Was that haunting you last night?

What was it like never start him no matter what? Basically, yeah. And he pitched nine consecutive no-hit innings yesterday because he gave up a lead off home run. So that he threw it over there. I mean, it was a fluke, a complete and utter fluke, and I'm not really looking to pick him up anywhere. But I think it's just one of those instances where you throw up your hands and say,

that's baseball. move on to the next day. Al, will you be throwing up your hands and saying that's baseball about both Doug Fister and Kyle Gibson? Oh yeah, and what the heck. Yeah, what the heck was that all about? He outdules big time, Carlos Carrasco, which brings us to our next segment. Struggling Studs. Carlos Carasco, Aaron Nola, and Jimmy Nelson.

Carrasco, third start in his last five, allowing five or more earn runs. One of them wasn't really his fault. There was a bad play made in right field on a job. Jacopi Ellsbury fly ball that cost Carrasco a lot of runs. But his ERA is up to 395. He is still, though, the number 13 starting pitcher in points and Roto, Carrasco. Aaron Nola, two bad starts in a row. 15 swinging strikes on 189 pitches in those two starts.

He had a 171 ERA in the 10 starts before that, but we know Nola's a little streaky. And he's got the Cubs coming up this weekend. And Jimmy Nelson, yeah, I mean, five innings, three runs, three walks, six strikeouts at the Giants. I'm not impressed, but he is long. lineup for two starts next week against the Cardinals and the and the nationals. Al, are you worried about any of these three, Carrasco, Nola, and Nelson going forward? Maybe a little bit about Nola because, like you said, he's streaky. And the thing is that Nola's streakiness, I think in pretty much every instance is coincided

with the health issue, and he's had his share of them. So I'm just kind of primed to be on pins and needles with Aaron Nola to start with. So back-to-back bad starts. or mediocre starts, I would say. And I could give them a pass with the low strikeout total against the Giants because as bad as they are, they don't really strike out. So you flip that around. I'm actually mildly impressed by the Jimmy Nelson start that he actually did get 6Ks in five

endings against the Giants. But he only lasted five innings. But that said, none of the three are experiencing any velocity drops. So I find that encouraging for all three. And Carrasco in particular, I just don't see anything in those game logs. that concerns me. He seems to be the same pitcher, so just giving up a lot of hits on balls and play over those five starts.

He's always been kind of a higher ERA than you'd expect guy. Yeah. Yeah, well, he has starts like this a lot. I think it's just part of the environment he's pitching it. I mean, you can, like you said, near four ERA, and he's basically a top 12 pitcher, which is about what we ranked him as coming into the year. So I would say Carlos Carasca's season is unfolding as expected.

Yeah. The other two, Nola and Nelson, they both had quote-unquote breakout seasons, and we're seeing them hit a rough patch here, but I'm not particularly worried about either. I mean, Nola, we've chronicled the changes that both made that have resulted in the breakout this year. Nola's velocity's up this year, better secondary pitches.

Nelson, better control and better secondary pitches. I don't think that's changed. Would you start Aranola against the Cubs this weekend? I would. Al? Yeah, I would too. Al, tell me something. Scott, you tell me something.

When was the last time you got your ladies some flowers? I got my lady some flowers just earlier this week. Oh, the pro flowers, flowers. Yes, pro flowers provided me with flowers to provide to my. lady and I thanked them very much because it went over quite well. Damn right. Al, how about you? How about you? Marybeth's allergic to flowers. Really? Yeah. What a nice built-in excuse you have. That is terrific. I love it. Get more creative. That's the downside.

All right. Well, listen. Yeah. I'm sorry. I interrupted. But, yeah, it's never a bad idea to get your lady some flowers. And proflowers.com did send us some flowers last week because they wanted us to talk about it on the show and tell you how beautiful the bouquets were. They really were great. And as Scott said, went over really well. And this is something that, you know, right before I got married, I asked a friend, kind of jokingly, hey, do you have any tips for marriage? You said, you know, small gifts from time to time can go a long way. And then getting your lady flowers every now and then is a really good idea. And look, yeah, it's a little expensive. but we'll get you 20% off.

So how about that? At proflowers.com. Proflowers.com really gave us something absolutely gorgeous last week, and I think you'll really like their selection. What you can do is get 20% off any of their unique summer rose bouquets or any other bouquet of 29 or more dollars. It's not that expensive, but still, 20 bucks off anything more than 20% off, anything more of $29.

Proflowers.com. Here's our promo code. It's A-N-S. A-N is a Nancy. Adam, Nancy Scott. A-N-S is our promo code. So proflowers.com, and when you check out, type in A-N-S, and you will get 20% off any of their unique summer rose bouquets or any other bouquets of $29 or more. Really nice stuff.

If you're thinking, oh, let's get some flowers. Proflowers.com promo code A, N as in Nancy, S, as in Scott. We need to get Nancy on this podcast sometime. We do. We do. We can just call Al-Nancy, I guess. Al, what did I call you? I knew that was coming.

What did I call you on the text message the other night? Oh, like Brendan or something like that? It was actually a pretty funny exchange. I had a typo. Sure it was. Oh, Darren. I think I meant to type, oh, I wrote around 1130 Eastern, but instead I wrote right around 1130, Darren. And you said, sounds good.

What kind of correct is that? I don't know. Sounds good. Stop calling me Darren. That's it. That's what Al said. Classic Al. All right.

So I had a really, I think, ridiculous debate. I don't even know how it's a debate at this point with Heath. I said, who would you rather have going forward, Gary Sanchez or Buster Posey? And he said Posey this year. Fine, fine. But then he said. No, no, he didn't because he's an ageist and he would never pick Pose. He'd pick Posey.

But then he said he'd take Posey next year, too. And that just blew my mind. So settle a debate for me. This year or next year, Al, you can go first. Gary Sanchez or Buster Posey? Oh, yeah, that's Gary Sanchez. I mean, he's younger. He's got the much better lineup.

I'm assuming that the Giants are going to do such a radical overhaul that they're going to somehow have a better lineup that the Yankees with all the great young hitters. So it's easily at Sanchez. Well, I was looking at your, because you put the fantasy points per game comparison in here, which is very helpful. Sanchez, of course, is on a power tear right now. So maybe not the fairest time to gauge his per game production,

but it's a 3.41 versus Posey's 3.02. Huge difference. Huge difference, yeah. But I was looking at the, this is something I actually hadn't noticed as the season's gone on just because, you know, Posey's such an automatic a catcher. He's not playing as consistently as we're used to him playing. That was always the additional advantage beyond the production

was just he was virtually an everyday player at a position where nobody plays every day. that's begun to end, probably because of the age factor, Al jokingly mentioned. So that might be enough for me to go ahead and slot Sanchez ahead. I think Sanchez, as long as he stays catcher eligible, and like he's been terrible behind the plate this year, as long as he stays catcher eligible, like he's going to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy for years. He's going to be the next posy. Maybe, yeah.

Yeah. So, hooray for him. Go Yankees. Let's talk about this year's underachievers. This year's underachievers. So yesterday we talked about some overachievers, guys having career years, Hosmer, Mustakis, Elvis Andrews, someone else that I don't remember. Scott, do you remember who it was?

I wasn't listening to what you were building up to. The overachievers from yesterday. I was thinking about the conversation we were just having. Classic Scott. Hasmer, Mustakis, Elvis Andrews. Whatever, who cares? Four underachievers from this year, what does 2018 look like? And once we're done with this, we'll talk about guys like John Lackey, James and Tyone, Lance Lynn, Tanner Roark, plus double dongs from yesterday, E.

Ohanio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, Ryan Healy, Tommy Fam has been cold, A.J. Pollock's been cold, and that camp has been pathetic. So we'll get into that. But let's look a little bit into the future. and four guys who I think are underachievers, probably going to fight with Scott about the first one. Mookie Betz. Mookie Betz is number five outfielder in points, but number 13 in Roto.

He's batting 264 with 18 home runs and 18 steals, a ton of runs, 81 runs, 59 walks, 59 strikeouts. He's been really good, really good. He hasn't been top three pick good. Scott, what do you think for Betts next year? Should he be a top three pick? No, he shouldn't.

He'll be a top 12 pick for me. And yeah, I guess technically speaking, he was my number two outfielder. He hasn't been the second best outfielder, so he has underachieved. But you took Muki Betts second overall. He's not the reason you're losing, you know? And I mean, this is probably as bad as it gets for him with that batting average, 266 BABIP versus 322 last year. His BABF is pretty much always, like, it mirrored his. batting average throughout his career.

So, you know, 32 Babbitt last year he hit 318, the year before 310 Babbitt, he hit 291. Clearly has not had the best of luck, but still managed to be a top five outfielder in points, top 12, more or less, in Roto. I think there's not really any concern here. Yeah, well, even though he's had a bad year for him, you know, compared to last year, a disappointing year, I'd still think bets would probably be a top five pick for me. Yeah, next year. Al, how do you feel about that? Yeah, top five, you know, I'd say probably not for me.

I think I'm with Scott probably later in the first round. I had a little bit of skepticism about him maintaining last year's power numbers. Maybe it's just, you know, confirming what I already suspected. I'm not sure what the deal is with the babb, especially playing home games at Fenway Park. It seems like he could easily bounce back in terms of batting average. But last year is kind of looking more like the outlier for Betts at this point. And the other thing I would just bring up, and this is just to kind of continue a discussion that I had with you guys like a year ago or maybe longer. I remember I talked about how Betts was really reliant on pulling pitches for his power numbers.

and how I thought that eventually pitchers might try to pitch them more of the outside. Pitchers are not pitching him any differently this year, but he's not generating as much power on the inner third of the plate this year for some reason. He's got lower exit velocity in that zone. I don't know why, but I don't know how to interpret that because it could be that maybe it's something he fixes, and he does fully recover next year. I don't know what the answer is, but I guess what that means does leave open some possibilities. in terms of him having a full rebound next year.

But I just don't think I'm going to need to splurge with a top five or six pick to get them. And I don't want to with that uncertainty. Can we talk about this for a second with Al here? Because, I mean, I think we'd all agree. We'd take Trout over him. We'd take Goldschmidt over him. We take Altuve over him. We take Aronado over him, right?

Well, that's four. I mean, but the thing is he's going to have 25 Steve. So I can't just completely overlook that. No, you can't completely overlook it, but, A, he's not guaranteed to always do that. And B, that's not such a big number that, like, I don't know that 20 steals in the first round is reason to pass up a better player, you know? All right, but, but, okay, that's fair. I just think, first of all, I don't think he's a 260 hitter, you know. I don't think so either.

Not me either. And same amount of walks of strikeouts. To me, it kind of reminds me of Goldschmidt, who had a down year last year, but just felt so safe because the peripherals were so good. And, like, he steals bases. Like, I feel like Betts could have a balance. I won't fight John Aronado. That's fine. Will we take Harper over him?

Yeah, that's a tough one. I don't know. I expect Harper to be better on a per game basis, for sure. But that's a really tough one. Harper and Kirchaw to me would be tough. Kershaw, yeah. And then the short stops would be tough, too, Machado and Donaldson, if Donaldson's there. No, Correa.

I mean, I guess there's a lot of guys that you can make arguments for, like Correa and Turner, all the shortstop eligible elites. But, like, Chris Bryant, I don't know that I see a reason to take Chris Bryant over bets. Yeah, I want it. So we're talking maybe like the eight range. I don't think I'd take Freddie Freeman over him, Joey Votto. I was thinking about Votto. I was going to be 34 next year.

I'm thinking about both Votto and Freeman. I'm thinking about Stanton, too. So that's why, you know, there's enough players in that mix there. Even if I say nay on some of them, I think that still pushes bets to, you know, maybe around 10th or so. Okay. All right, Miguel Cabrera. What do you think about him? 258 batting average, 411 slugging, awful year for Cabrera.

What do you think about him? Can he bounce back? I'd say not fully, but enough that I think he's going to be a big bargain because I worry about health now with Cabrera, but I think probably everybody else will too. And so I think he'd be a good fallback maybe. I would think he'd be there in the third round. Oh, my gosh. I think he's going to be more like a sixth round picnic.

Am I crazy? I don't think that's crazy. But I would say depending on how fast the first base elite thin out, I might start thinking about him late in the third round. And I think he could be a big bargain at that point. I mean, the thing that, you know, lots of analysts come back to again and again with Cabrera is that the, you know, the stat cast stats say he's had a terrific year. Yeah. So.

On Cancrafts is the best career line drive rate, best career hard contact rate. But Chris Towers pointed out yesterday, it hasn't been the case lately. Okay. Well, and I'll throw another thing in there to that. There's kind of a theme with several tigers. So that maybe the measure, you know, the measuring devices at Camerner. America Park run a little hot. Right.

You know, but even so, if you look at the away splits, they're still really good. So it's not like it's drastically worse in a way that would justify the base numbers, the decline we've seen there. Yeah. So I worry a little bit about the strikeout rate, which has gone up quite a bit this year, and he's at the age where you can expect that. I worry about health with Cabrera. So, no, I don't expect a full rebound, but I do expect him to be a really good value wherever he falls to. Scott, next year, do you think you're going to rank Miguel Cabrera or Eric Hosmer higher? I think I'm going to rank Miguel Cabrera higher.

Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I think so. I hope Cabrera goes the way of Edwin and Cardassion, which is still respectable and not the way of Jose Batista, who appears done. I think he will. I hope so. Jonathan VR. Jonathan VR.

I mean, there's a salvageable career at this point for VR, Al. What do you think? Oh, I think so. I mean, the Brewers have such a roster crunch at this point that I think he'd probably be a good offseason trade chip. And he just needs to find a place where he can play regularly again. He also needs to not strike out so much. He's really regressed in that regard this year. So he's definitely a bit of a wild card that I think he could get back to closer to where he was last year.

But I don't discount the possibility that he's. he doesn't rebound or that he doesn't find a spot where he can play enough to be relevant, you know, other than as a steel source. But I think he's always going to have that going for him. Scott, you care about VR next year? I care about him. Yeah, I mean, we're talking about a late round pick at this point. We're going to have to see if the brewers make a spot for him. Sure.

But definitely some skills there still. Yeah. Yeah. Hopefully he'll just be a late-round steel source to get some summit bats. We'll see what happens with you are. I mean, that's what he was two years ago. He ended up having his monster year, and suddenly he's an early-round pick. But he wasn't going completely ignored in rotisserie leagues at the start of 2016

when he looked like he was in line to become the Brewers starting shortstop. And then finally, let's talk about another underachiever. And it's all because of injury, but it's Noah Cindergarde who has made just five starts this year. two walks and 32 strikeouts in 27 and a third. He's amazing coming off a year with a 260 ERA and 21818 strikeouts in 183 and two thirds back in 2016. Al, what round do you think you'd be looking at Noah Cindergarde next year? He was probably a third round pick, maybe second round pick in some leagues in 2017. What about 18 for Cindergarde?

Well, for me, I'd say third round just with health concerns with him. But I kind of suspect that I might be more cautious than a lot of other owners and I might just whiff on him next year because I just can't see pulling the trigger to make him the second player I draft with all the risk that I perceive that he will still have. Yeah, there's no way he's going in the second round at him. Not a chance. I think even just slotting him among starting pitchers, I don't think he's obvious top 10. Now, I was kind of down on him coming into this year, too. I think I had the lowest of the three who ranked him here at CBS, Chris Towers, Heath Cummings, mostly because of health and really more about durability.

Right. We had an issue drafting a pitcher as an ace if I haven't seen him pitch two hundred innings in a season yet, because I don't think everybody in today's game is capable of doing that as hard as everybody throws. And that'll apply even more so next year. You know, I've talked a few times on the podcast about how, given the, given how much better the aces have been historically, the gap between the halves and havinots at starting pitcher, how valuable aces are relative to the rest of the pitcher pool, how I might go second, third, fourth, all pitchers next year. But I don't think Noah Cinderguard would be among the pitchers I target, even in the fourth. Wow. Well, okay. So would you target Strasbourg ahead of him?

If I have to answer today, yes. Now, if Cindergarde comes back, makes four starts and is just dominant in them, I may reconsider. But if he doesn't, there's going to be questions beyond even just the health. Yeah, like I said yesterday, not for me, because I just, I'll forgive a guy coming off a long layoff, I suppose. maybe if his velocity is way down. But, okay, so I guess my follow-up question wouldn't make sense. I was going to ask who's the highest Mets pitcher next year, but that's going to be to Grom.

Oh, I know what I was going to say. You know who I'm a little worried about to go down the Cinderguard route? I'm a little worried about Luis Severino. Obviously, any Yankees fan wants them to make the playoffs. If you own Luis Severino in a Keeper League, you don't want them to make the playoffs. He's got among the best velocity in baseball, and he's little, especially compared to, he's not like tiny, but he's kind of skinny. Compared to Cindergarde. Cindergards is like a – he's Thor compared to Ceverino, you know.

I am very, very concerned about the future of Louis Ceverino's arm. Well, first of all, if they make the playoffs and are eliminated in the wild card game, it's as good as not making the playoffs. Except he will pitch that game, I would think. You don't think Tanaka? No, I think Severino. know. Yeah, I would, I would, well, maybe Sunny Gray. It may depend how hard.

Or Sunny Gray, yeah. How, you know, how easily they do make it into that wildcard game. They may need Severino just to help them secure it. Right. I'm hoping we see the Yankees kind of curtail Severino's innings here in September, maybe some five-inning starts in anticipation of a lengthy playoff run, because I do think they have the personnel to make a lengthy playoff run. But if they don't do that and they do advance far in the playoffs, it's one of those will cross that bridge when we come to it situations.

I hear what you're saying. Al, I'm going to tell you who's tortured me this year. Andrew McCutcheon has been – just made me look so bad because I was done. I thought he was done with McCutcheon. He's made me look so bad all year. But here's a new category. It's called McCutcheon Stinks. He is batting 260 with one home run and one steal in August, Al.

McCutcheon Stinks. O'Doyle rules. I prefer the McCutcheon Discussion segments that we used to have. Were you surprised? Are you surprised by the year McCutcheon has had? Yeah, I have to admit, I am. He finished pretty strong last year, so I figured he had a rebound. I didn't think he'd rebound at this level. And this August slump doesn't really worry me because the body of work,

both career long and just last 12 months, is just so slanted towards him. being a lead outfielder. But yeah, I didn't expect him overall to have the season he's having. Yeah, the August slump doesn't worry me either, unfortunately. So let's go on to some pitchers from yesterday. Who is must-own? I'm going to give you a pitcher. They're all owned in like 86% of leagues or more.

Tell me who you think is must-own. Charlie Morton, Scott. Charlie Morton is must-own. And actually, a nine starts since his return, even though this last one against Washington wasn't the best. 356 ERA 108 with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. I mean, those are Carlos Carrasco numbers, right? Okay, Tanner Roark.

Tanner Roark has been pretty good since the All-Star break. 314 ERA, and opponents are betting 194. He has the Mets this weekend. Al, is Tanner Roark a must-owned starting pitcher? He's not. He's at best a streamer because even during the stretch, I don't have the numbers to document it, but he struggled versus lefties this season.

And so start by start, I've looked at how he's done against the lefties. And even against the Angels, who are a terrible offense, he allowed hits to three different players. One was Mike Trout, who singled against him, and that was it. So he's a really tough hunt varieties, including Mike Trout. But he got hit by Luis Val Buena, who I think Homer doubled. And Calhoun, I think either Homer or doubled against him. So he's really struggled against lefties. You have to look at what the lineup is he's going to face.

Okay, so we got a yes on Charlie Morden. We got a no-on-tano roll arc. How about Dan Straeli, who had a very good start at the Phillies yesterday? He has San Diego at home this weekend. That should be a good one for him. But, Al, back to you, is Dan Strelie? First of all, you still Marlins fan. Second, is Dan Strelie a must-own pitcher?

Yeah, I am. I'm excited about how they played lately. Are you encouraged by new ownership? because we can't get Chris Towers happy about it. As much as he wanted Jeffrey Loria out of there, he wants Derek Jeter talking like a Sabremetrix guy. I think it's way premature to be worked up about that. And yeah, I think Chris needs to put things in a different perspective.

I'm very excited. Good, good. And the Marlins, by the way, are five and a half out of the wild car. They're not dead yet. But is Dan Australia a must own? I would say just shy of that because I don't trust him entirely. You know, for example, you know, got the 10 strikeouts against the Phillies, which speaks in part to the weakness of the Phillies lineup.

We also gave up a couple of homers at Citizens Bank Park. Haskedong. Yeah, I know. It's enough already. I'm playing against him in the playoffs. It's enough. Hoskins. It's Reese Hoskins if it wasn't clear.

Yeah. Yeah. I saw your tweet yesterday, Scott. Yeah, so I would say just shy a must start because I don't really trust really entirely in tough venues. Okay, so let's go to John Lackey. Scott, previous six starts, 306 ERA and he was 5 and O. Had a terrible start at the Reds yesterday. Is John Lackey a must start?

A must own, must own. No, he isn't a must own. He's a little behind Staley for me, even, because I feel like Strayley, when he's at home, it's a great benefit to them, better strikeout rate this year. But the issue I have with both is that even when they're pitching well, they're not pitching very deep. They're not going, more often they're not, they're falling short of the six innings required for a quality start and usually required for a win.

Not technically required, but it's tough to win games if you're not going six innings consistently. So they are both matchups types in my book. And Lackie does have a good matchup at Phil. Philadelphia this weekend. Jameson Tyone. Let's go back to Scott. He got crushed by the Dodgers yesterday. He walked five. He gave up five runs in five innings on five hits, but with one strikeout at Cincinnati this weekend is James and Tyone must own. You know, before this start, I might have said yes, just because I felt like

the good times were lengthier than the bad times. But now this is four of six starts that have been just plain bad. And you look at what it's done. to his overall numbers. He has a 485 ERA, a 153 whip. It's not like he was a big strikeout guy in the first place. I don't think we've heard the last of Tyone this year, but I would call him less than Mustown. Must Tyone. Not Must Tyone. Al, agree, disagree on Jameson, Tyone? He is so droppable at this point. Sucks. I'm so disappointed. And Lance Lynn does get the raise this weekend. So Lance Lynn, I mean, the peripheral If you like peripherals, you don't like Lance Lynn.

He's given up two or fewer runs in eight straight starts, but he's done that with 20 walks to 29 strikeouts in 49 and a third and 8% swinging strikes. Only two homers, though, in 49 and a third over eight starts. That was going into yesterday where he was a little disappointing against the Padres. Al, is Lance Lynn a must-own player? Well, I do like peripherals, so no, I'm not really liking Lance Lynn as a must-own type. I mean, the thing is he's great to stream at home.

He had great matchups this week, but he's widely enough owned, but you don't really have the luxury of doing that. But I wouldn't want to use a roster spot to take the chance when he goes on the road. A lot of extra base hits on the road, and it's been masked by a high strand rate that I just, at some point, he's not going to be able to sustain that. Has he usually been a high strand rate guy? Because I feel like he's typically been a pitcher to outperform his peripherals. Yeah, I think some of that is the whole. park. But let's see, career-wise, I'll pull up his numbers here.

What's a normal? Yeah, actually, three seasons in a row with a way above average strand rate. Typical is about 73, 74%. And last three years, 78, 79, 80. So every year it's going to go up 1%. Do you know who else is like that? Sorry, Scott. Drew Pomeranz is like that.

Huh. Yeah, I was because I know he had a high strand rate this year, but I was looking and he's around 80% every year. And I know you believe that's a skill, that's something sustainable. Lance Lynn is the first of these that I feel like we've disagreed on just because I don't love the peripherals for Lynn.

I would guess some regression is coming, but kind of like we've been saying with Gio Gonzalez all year, he's just been so reliable at a time when reliable pitching is so rare. I just don't know how I could steer away from him at this stage of the season. This critical stage of the season.

Yeah. I get it. And you're right. I do think that Stranding Runners can be a skill. And for him, maybe it is with three straight years of doing it at a high rate. But he's also not just not as skilled of a pitcher in other ways this year. A lot more home runs despite the recent string that Adam was talking about, fewer strikeouts.

And also a much, much lower Babbitt, which is helping to mask some of those other things. He is not in the circle of trust for me. So out of Charlie Morton, Roark, Strayley, Lackey, Tyone, and Lynn, Morton is the only one that we say is must-own. Lynn, Al says no, Scott says yes. That does not mean these guys are must-drops. Play the match-ups, but maybe there's a hitter you really want or a two-star pitcher that you really want.

And we think that these guys particularly Roark, Lackey, Tyone, and maybe Strayley, maybe are expendable. bubble dongs from yesterday, after I tell you about a great way to find talent for your company, if you're hiring, you need ZipRecruiter. ZipRecruiter will help you post your job to 100 plus job sites with just one click, and you, of course, can try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. So why use ZipRecruiter? Well, you need to get the word out, and ZipRecruiter's different than other job sites. It doesn't depend on candidates finding you. It finds them.

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How about A. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. Haneo Suarez. Over the last 28 days, he's the number three third baseman in fantasy behind Machado and Donaldson. So you get the short stops out of there. Suarez is the best third basement in fantasy over the last 28 days. Nick Castiano's Homer twice, although was one of them inside the Parker? It was. It should have been a single. I kind of feel like they should have scored it to three-base error, but whatever. I got to see this.

I missed it. Castagnos is outside the top 20 at third base this year. And Ryan Healy, Ryan Healy's been horrible for a while. He just hit two home runs yesterday against the righty, which is weird because he's better against lefties. He's heating up again. Last 10, he's hit 4-10.

Really? Yep. All right. Since the break, he's slugging 397. All right, so Healy's 70%. I think Suarez is really the story here because he had a very, very cold streak. It looked like he was back to being Waverwire fodder. But now Suarez is a top 12 third baseman in both formats.

He's kind of a great year. Go ahead. Sorry. It wasn't just a cold streak at him. There were some dark days in May, June, and July. He's basically been a different player in August and April than he's been the rest of the season. And ultimately, it's come out to be, like you were pointing out, the ninth best. The bests third baseman in points league's 11th best in Roto.

He has, is he up to 80 walks already or is in an 80 walk pace? He has a ton of walks. 70 walks. A ton of walks. And the plate discipline was terrible last year for Suarez, but much, much better this year. But the thing is, even during those dark times, he walked at a high rate. I feel like there has been a legit breakthrough here for Suarez that just because of the timing of things is kind of gotten overshadowed. I wish he had been more consistent because I feel like he would be a player.

I've been hyping all season if he had been. But I'm very much on board with starting him now. I think he needs to be owned everywhere. Al, would you rather own Eugenio Suarez or Matt Carpenter? Ooh. I think I'd still rather own Carpenter, although I'm a little concerned about him. It's getting pretty annoying. And, you know, I'm going to look at the schedule here for the Reds,

Because I think Suarez only has four home runs on the road this season. And I'm looking at his post All-Star Break schedule, the Red started with a very long homestand. Looks like it was 10 or 11 games. Then they played a game in Cleveland, went to Yankee Stadium, had a couple of pitcher-friendly parks, but then another homestand. Then the Brewers, Cubs, and Braves, which all have pretty good parks for hitters, and now back home again. So it's been a pretty good set of venues for Suarez since the All-Star break. It was awesome drastic home-away splits. Yeah.

Just OPS 1043 at home 727 on the road. I wonder what it was last year. Because sometimes we see that and it's just a complete fluke. Yeah. But last year, 755 at home 702 away, much closer. I don't know. Yeah, his schedule looks pretty safe. safe from here on out.

Okay. So, so, um, so, uh, so obviously, you ask me compare him to a carpenter.

Carpenter. Yeah, I'd still, I'd still go with Carpenter, but yeah, it's pretty close. All right. So, uh, nice,

nice season so far for Hayni Oswaris and he's red hot. Uh, okay, so we didn't, we're not going to get to everything. Let's, let's talk about some slumping players. I want to know if you're worried about any of these guys.

Like, dropable worried. Tommy Fam. Tommy Fam. Tommy Fam has a 400 on base percentage in the last 28 days. And that's basically all he's doing. He is the number 39 outfielder in points, number 45 in Roto in that stretch, despite a

400 on base percentage. Two homers, three steals. AJ Pollack, he's really struggling, batting 169 in August, and he's been terrible on the road. And Matt Kemp, it's, yikes, yikes, getting really ugly for him. So, Pham, Pollock, Kemp, are they dropable? Ow. Not Pollock, even though I know he's been miserable this month.

But there's not really a clear thing to point to the power. The lack of power doesn't worry me tremendously because that's probably the last thing that I'm really going to count on Pollock for. I just think that there's way too much upside there. But fam, I made a conscious decision to try to trade him. Oh, oh. You don't come on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast with Scott White and talk smack about Tom. All right. Let me make the case here.

Okay. Because going back to the second week of August, his rest of season schedule, this is another player. He's sort of the anti-Swarres, much better road splits in terms of power. And you're right. At home, he can get on base. He has good play discipline. But since the second week of August, he had a home and home with the Royals and Home Against the Braves, Fenway, PNC Park. then right now they're in the middle of a homestand.

And then you look at September and about half of those games are at Bush Stadium where he doesn't hit for much power. He goes to San Francisco, San Diego, Riggly. Riggley and Cincinnati are fine. But then PNC Park. So you've basically got two series that look good for power for Tommy Fan. How interesting. Here's the thing, though.

I mean, Tommy Fam, this is bad Tommy Fan we're seeing right now. And bad Tommy Fam is still reaching. base at a 400 clip. Bad Tommy Fam is still barely a top 40 outfielder, but I mean, in what format are you not owning every top 40 outfielder? I actually, when I was doing my, updating my outfield rankings right before the podcast, I actually moved Tommy Fam up, understanding that he hasn't been as good lately, but just all the ways he's capable of contributing, not just power, but gets on base a lot, steals a fair number of bases, and just, What else has been happening in the outfield position?

There have been so many injuries of late. And then you have guys like Corey Dickerson coming back down to Earth. Eric Thames has been coming down to Earth all season. So many injuries. Brandon Belt, Odu Bell Herrera. It's basically gotten to the point where there are only about 45 outfielders who I really feel good about starting, as deep as that position was looking early in the year.

I think Tommy Fam is firmly among that group. AJ Pollock, too. I mean, he's had a disappointing year, but still does enough things well and has enough of the track record that I'm going to stick with him. Matt Kemp's probably the low guy of the three for me, but even him, it's like, what better are you going to find on the waiver wire? Well, I mean, before going on the DL, 47 games before going on the DL, Kemp had a 653 OPS. You go look at his head-to-head points, and you can barely see the bars. If you go to a player page on just the regular CPSports.com slash MLB slash players, you scroll down a little bit.

It'll show you red bars with fantasy points every single week. It's actually very useful for me. It helps me see how guys have been doing for a period of time. Matt Kemp is one of the worst. He had a great start, and yeah, he's thamesing it big time, probably even worse than Thames. So I don't know, look, it's just that we're at the point in the season where you're in the playoffs. You know, a lot of guys, a lot of fantasy owners probably don't need the number 40 outfielder right now because they've got great teams. You know, it's almost like we're not addressing full leagues anymore in certain cases.

So I think in a three outfielder league, Matt Kemp, is droppable. You don't, Scott? He's on the borderline. Yeah, I wouldn't. Because he is so streaky. I would not want to leave him out there for somebody to pick him up if his fortune's turn. As well, real quick, I want to say, I actually agree with pretty much everything Scott said about FAM. I was just talking more about trading him at peak value.

And, of course, at this point, either because of the recent slump or because you can't trade anymore, that's not really going to be relevant advice for most people. But just to kind of justify the ranking, because I have in my top 25 now. I mean, do you trust FAM to remain reasonably productive? Or do you trust Ryan Braun, Yonis Cespitas, to stay healthy? I got to say FAM, right? I'd go Braun. And probably Cuspedus too.

Cesspitus is hitting pretty well now. He is hitting well now, but for how long? Yeah. I keep saying that seems like a guy that's a candidate to get shut down, Cespitus, at some point. Okay, so let's finish up. Do you guys care it all about Lucas Sims and the start he had? Career high four strikeouts. 15.

He's only 13% owned. Look, Sims has actually held his own against the Dodgers and at Corse Field. I don't know. I just don't know what happened to the strikeouts because that's what got him called up to the majors. So you want to see that before you add Lucas Sims? Yeah. All right, let's go through today's matchups. And you tell me start or sit, Daniel Gossett at Dylan Bundy.

Al, would you start either Gossett or Bundy? That's Bundy at home, right? Yeah. I'll say negatory on that. Ooh, but the other split is Bundy on extended rest, and he's on very extended rest. He's been really good on rest, long rest. Now, I just... Bundy against the A's, too.

Yeah, everything's right for him except the venue. And that's the thing with Bundy I care about the most. Okay. All right. Sky, it sounds like you're going to start Bundy? Yeah, I would. Okay. Brewer's Giants, Matt Garza, Matt Moore.

Can't do it. I can't either. More, I'm a little intrigued by now. I've been a little better. But, yeah, I have to agree. I'm not going to take the plunge. Marlins at Marlins. Why did I say, like, I'm Irish.

Ooh, the Marlins are at the Phillies this afternoon or this evening. Justin Nicolino is at Mark Lider, Jr. Nope. So, just the point. point in that last Mark Lider start. Yeah. Such high hopes I had. It's funny.

I saw you tweet something about Mark Lider, and I saw the two long relief appearances he had and how he was striking out everybody in sight. And then I can't remember exactly what you tweeted, but it inspired me to put in claims for Leiter and two really deep leagues were both in, and you outbid me for one in both. Jokes on Al. Yeah, absolutely it is. I'm rooting for a rebound, even though. Let's get the Marlins, but not putting anything behind it.

I can't start either him or Nicolino. Rich Hill and Trevor Williams, Dodgers and Pirates. Don't Rich. Jim Hill. Drew Pomeranz, Corey Klobber. I'll take both. Me too. Luis Severino, Jordan Zimmerman.

Severino. Yeah. Mike Montgomery at Asher Wogikowsky. Neither. I'll go neither, too. Zach Godley, Chris Flexen. Big Godly fan. Godly is going to be Godly again in this one.

All right. Great name for Flex and not a great start. If Godley does not have a good start today, I'm not coming on the podcast tomorrow because it's basically going to be in the end of my fantasy seasons. I need him big time. Marcus Strowman, Austin Pruitt. Strohman. Yep.

Arasmo Ramirez, R.A. Dickey. Mariner's a brave. Dickie. Yeah, I'll roll the dice on Dickie. He's been very reliable of late. Irvin Santana, James Shields. Big Irv. Edwin Jackson and Mike Fires.

No, thank you. No. Antonio Sensatella at Ian Kennedy. No. Pass. Yolishasin at Luke Weaver. Ooh, pick up Luke Weaver now before he has this awesome start because he's got two starts next week.

Yeah. And I like him for this one, too. I'm starting to. I like Sha Csit, too. Yeah. I don't do Shasin on the road But understandable I'm hedging on both

What? What? You love Luke Weaver He's got the pods Audres I know I love Luke Weaver But I don't love I guess it's not his first start of the season And the last start was the quality start When he had eight strikeouts, I think

So maybe Yeah I'll roll the dice on him It's a little uneasy about it I don't know what Wayne Wright's timetable is So I can't promise you Luke Weaver's going to make two starts next week. But he's scheduled to. Well, Mike Leak, I think, is not long for the rotation.

Yeah, if Weaver does well today, I think he'll stay. Listen to what I say. Andrew Cashner and Andrew Heaney. Al, your name begins with A. Would you start either Andrew Cashner or Andrew Heaney? I have definitely started Andrew Cashner. Love the matchup. And I just like what he's done this year.

It doesn't give you strikeouts or a great whip, but you should get the win and help your ERA with this one. at that. It took 59 minutes to hear something that has not been said once all year. Definitely starting Andrew Cashner. Al Melchior. Okay. And Al, we're going to end the show. How's life, man? How the hell is life? How are you doing? Life is good out here in Big Sky Country. Yeah, what's Montana like? Well, it's very mountainous with Big Valley, so that's why it's the Big Sky State. Oh, okay. Well, that makes sense. I'm skeptical the sky's any bigger than anywhere else.

Gotta be honest with you. How was the eclipse? Did you get a good eclipse view? You know, I didn't. And that was a massive fail on my part because I didn't get the glasses. But I don't think I would have been able to see much because the deal here in Montana right now is in a lot of the West. Very smoky. A lot of fires, been very dry.

So probably wouldn't see much, but it got very dark and very cold like 11 in the morning. I don't trust those glasses anyway. It's probably for the best. Do a rain dance for Al. Thank you for coming on. What a fun show this was. Thanks, Al. Yeah, thank you so much for inviting me.

Scott, you're cool, too. All right. Thanks for listening, everybody. Mailbag and Wednesday Recap tomorrow. Fantasy Baseball at Cbsi.com. See you.