Fantasy Baseball Today - 08/29: 2019 Busts, Tue. Recap, Worryometer (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: August 29, 2018

Adam comes out swinging with a bold prediction about a 2019 bust and Scott and Chris talk about a couple of other candidates (5:00). Then we've got yesterday's standouts (6:45) such as Tyler O'Neill, Randal Grichuk and Christian Yelich ... Worryometer time (16:00)! How concerned are we about Charlie Morton, Brian Dozier, Kenley Jansen and a few others? We'll also give you bullpen updates (27:03) and discuss three very interesting 2018 breakouts (28:40) ... Recapping yesterday's big developments (35:00) with some overowned hitters and SPs. Is it time to drop Julio Teheran and Taylor Ward? Why should you be paying attention to Jake Junis now? Are we done with Kyle Gibson and Elvis Andrus? Plus a look at today's matchups (48:06) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I've got what I consider to be kind of a weird show today. I could not find a central theme. So we just got a lot of stuff. We're going to talk about Christian Nellich. He's been awesome. We're going to talk about Randall Gitchick. He's been interesting. We got the Worryometer.

We got Scott White. We got Chris Towers. I'm Adamazer. Let's do it. What's up, guys? Chris. Oh, Scott. Scott, you go first.

I know you want to say hi. See, yeah, I got in. interrupted in the middle of hello, so it sounded like I just cursed out of nowhere. That's how I begin the show. Yeah, see, weird show. I told you. Weird show, Chris? Definitely.

Hell to you, Chris. Hey, hey. I was going to just say a bad word and force you to have to bleep it out. Thank you. Thank you for not doing that. But decided not to do that. All right. Well, I'm going to start off the show with something that you probably weren't expecting.

And something you're not, definitely not going to agree with. Your 2019 bust, parentheses, that I reserve the right to change my mind about, close parentheses, is, dot, dot, dot. Carlos Carasco. Oh, Adam. Carlos Carasco will be a bus next year. Why will he be a bust? Because you watched him in an April start and you thought his velocity was down. I have watched him about six or seven times this year, and he doesn't really.

really throw a four-seam fastball. He throws his two-seemer most of the time. And we already have established that he doesn't really have a good four-seem fastball. He will be a bust because here's why. You tell me where you're drafting Carlos Carrasco next year. Or where you think you'll rank him? Where do you think he'll rank him? Top 15 pitcher. A fairly confident saying that. So that would probably put him as early as round four maybe, at least in a points league, maybe around five or six in Roto. Yeah, all right, Chris, how about you?

What do you think he'll be top ten with this awesome stretch now? Do you think he's going to vault himself into that ace hood? I think he'll be in the 10 to 15 range, for sure. Yeah, bust. He has had the easiest schedule on planet Earth, and I knew it. And I said it. I said, you've got to buy low on Indian starting pitchers. They have an amazing schedule down the stretch.

His division is total crap. In his last 10 starts, 11 appearances, he has had a good start against a good opponent one time. It was a great start. It was 6 and 2 thirds, two runs, eight strikeouts at Texas. The only other time he faced a good opponent, he was lit up by the Boston Red Sox. Adam? Yeah? Can I ask you four questions?

Four questions. Madishana, sure. Do you think the royals are going to be good next year? You know, I don't know. Yes or no? I see where these questions are going. I've got three questions left. No.

We need to get through them quick. No, no, no, baby. Do you think the tigers are going to be good next year? No. Do you think the twins are going to be good next year? Maybe. Do you think the white socks are going to be good next year? Maybe.

I think they might hit well. I got four questions for you. I rest my case. I got four questions, too. Has Carasco been a bused this year? No. Was he a bus last year? I honestly don't remember, but...

Was he a bused the year before? He's going to get... He answered all these questions as no. He is going to get drafted... He is going to get drafted... He's going to get drafted higher than ever before. People are going to expect him to take the DeGrom leap. If you draft Carasco...

This is a false. narrative. Actually, if you're basing this on an idea that isn't going to, like, why would people do that? He's been, he's been the same Carasco. Here's why. Here's why. If you're, if you're looking for a bust that I don't want to be held to, go with someone who's doing something they've never done before, and that's not Carlos Carasco. He's been Carlos Carasco. Well, but if you look at the full season, but if you, if you look at, if you look at his last 10 starts, he's got a 2-13 ERA, a 16% swinging strike rate, 82 strikeouts, and 63 in a third. If you draft Carasco to be Carasco, you're going to be fine.

If you draft Carasco to be DeGrom, you're going to be disappointed. Nobody's going to do that. I don't know about that. I don't know about that. I don't know, but seriously, like, I'll throw out a couple. All right, all right. Jacob de Grom, likely to not perform as well next year as he does this year, but we're going to draft him based on this year.

He's going to be a second round pick. That's a guy who can probably be considered a bus next year. Now it's one of those like Alvin Camara type bus where he's still clearly going to be awesome, but not quite as awesome as his draft value. Blake Snell would be another. Yeah, that was the one I was going to say. Probably more like a mid-3s ERA guy who might get drafted in the second or third round next year. I'll take him over Carrasco.

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting Snow will be a bus. I just see the argument for it clearer than for Carasco. By the way, of, let's see, of 835 pitchers who have appeared in a game this season, Carlos Carasco ranks 470th in an opponent OPS, which is right around the middle. There is no evidence that he has had an exceptionally easy or difficult schedule. Uh, okay. I don't know about that stat because if one pitcher... I mean, it's objective, true.

Yeah, but if one pitcher pitches one game, I mean, I feel like... I feel like the pool of pitchers is too big. Okay, what inning threshold would you like me to go to? 50? Yeah, yeah. Okay. Well, but does that count relievers? Does that count relievers?

Yes. All right, so then bump it up to like 80, so there are no relievers. You got 35 minutes left with me, Adam. I'm just telling you. Just putting it out there. Okay, okay, okay. Tuesday standout. Scott, who you got?

Apparently, this isn't important enough. We spent five minutes on it already. Six and a half minutes. I'm going to go with Tyler O'Neill. Who, yeah. Hit his fourth home run in five games, and it was a moonshot. And this is exactly what he's supposed to be doing with his playing time, which has hit tons and tons of home runs. He was, if you project out his minor league stats,

over 160 games, it would have been a 65 homer pace. He's always been thought to have elite power. Would there be enough contact with it? That was one question. But I think certainly if you need help in that category, he's playing every day with Ozuna on the DL. I imagine he would get preferential treatment even when Ozuna comes off the DL. OZUF is coming back on Saturday, by the way.

Yeah. So I would go ahead and pick him up now in the hopes that that happens. Okay, he's 30. What did you say it was? 34% on, Tyler O'Neill? I didn't say. Okay, he's 34% own. Now, there's a big stat here.

Three walks, 37 strikeouts. Does that mean he could be a total bust? Oh, I mean, yeah, it does. But I am, like, I think the power is even clear for him, the power potential than somebody like Hunter Renfro. So I think it's a similar skill set, but O'Neill's a better version of that. So.

It will also run a little bit. Yeah. So, you know, probably not a points league pickup, but specifically categories leagues if you need home runs. Very interesting. Would you rather have him or Randall Gritchick? You know, Gritchick is so annoying. His last eight games, he has like a 1,400 OPS or something. The eight games before that, he did not have one extra base hit.

He batted 1-11 with one walk and 10 strikeouts. But overall, since the All-Star break, Randall Gritchick is batting 23 with eight homers and 894 OPS. So he's streaky, but, you know, it's really that one terrible eight-game stretch where he batted 11 without an extra base hit. Would you rather have Gritchick or O'Neill? I think Gritchick and O'Neill are the Spider-Man meme. You know what the meme I'm talking about? Yes, and it's just two Spider-Man's pointing at each other.

One of the Spider-Man's might be a little faster. Spider-Men? Spider-Men? Okay. And for the most... Well, they're multiple... Their name is Spider-Man. It's a prop not Spider-Man.

Yeah, yeah. Yeah. And Tyler O'Neill might be a little more athletic and a little faster. He might steal two more bases over the course of the final 30-something games. But I think they're very similar. O'Neill might be one of like seven players in baseball with worse play discipline than Randall Gritchick, but I think he might have even more power. Okay.

So you're going to take Spider-Man and Scott O'Neill or Gritchick? I'll shoot for the upside, which I believe belongs to O'Neill. Chris, do you have the results? Yes, so my Tuesday standout as Carlos Carrasco, who has been very good this season, while facing the 84th highest opposing OPS out of 143 pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings. His average OPS against him. No, that's below average. 84 out of 143.

His average OPS against has been 727 for the opposing batters. That's not batting against him. That's their season line. The average is 724 for this group. He has not had an especially easy or difficult time. I'm just saying he has, during his last 11 appearances, 10 starts. Take the whole, I just think you take the whole season. That's fine.

He's had a Carlos Carrasco season. Yes, exactly what I'm saying. he's Carlos Carrasco. He's not, he's got a 213 ERA and a 16% swinging strike rate in these 10 starts. I don't want people to think, and I think that they might. Because I know how fantasy analysts work. Scott, you do it all the time. Look at what he did in his last 20 starts.

He was this amazing. He's going to carry that over. I want to do that with Carlos Carasca. Yeah, I just like. And a line into being a very normal Carlos Garasca. Last four seasons, 363, ERA, 332, ERA, 329, 329, 338. more than a strikeout per inning every time, very few walks. Okay, that's fine.

He's been Carlos Carrasco. That's who is. You watch what's going to happen. People are going to draft him higher. Of course, I reserve my rights to change my mind. Christian Yelich is a standout. He hit two home runs. He is the number six outfielder in points.

Number four in Roto. Is there any reason why he's not a total stud next year? Christian Yelich. I mean, the fly ball rate's still terrible, but... Better than it... Fewer ground balls, I should say. Not more fly balls, but fewer ground. You see the whole run of fly ball?

The thing was like, even though he was always a terrible flyball hitter, he still had good power production on the road during his time as a Marlin. So, yeah, I think it's playing out exactly as hoped, and he'll be top 10 outfielder, I suspect, going into next year. He's been a little lucky. You know, maybe he should hit 23 home runs over the course of the season because he has a 30% home run to fly ball rate, maybe he should hit 285 instead of 310. But you add it all up.

And Christian Yelich, over the course of the last three seasons, has been really, really good. And there's no reason to think he wouldn't be next year. He does have a 32% home run to fly ball rate. That's crazy high. But still, I mean, top six outfielder right now. Yeah, I think there's a chance he gets overdrafted. All right. He's safe, though.

That's a nice thing I like about Yelich. Sure. You know, he's so, he's so, he's got a diversified portfolio of skills. Steal some bases, extra base hits, good batting average, good plate this one. All right. Anyway, Seat Geek, the Seekek app is another Tuesday standout. I use the Seekek app all the time. I'm constantly on there looking for the best prices.

You don't have to go around and compare because Seatkeek's going to get you the best prices. But I've actually done it because I, you know, I like to be honest when I give these reads. I like to be honest when I give these. ads and I can tell you that I've looked at events on multiple sites and Seekek really does come back with the best prices because they search multiple sites and they pull in results for multiple sites and they grade every ticket based on value and Seekkeek gives you 20 bucks off your first purchase with the promo code fantasy. So look for an event.

It's a great time of year to go to a game, right? It's baseball season, football season. NBA is not that far away because the NBA doesn't have an off season. I think hockey still exists. I know our Canadian listeners just hated me. But anyway, concerts, comedy, theater, every purchase fully guaranteed. I use Seekek all the time, and you should really do the same. And your first purchase knocked $20 off with the promo code Fantasy.

Again, the code is Fantasy. Seatkeek, life's an event, and we have the tickets. All right. Back to baseball. Here's the easiest question of the year from Ben at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Ben says, would you rather go into the finals way ahead in the rankings and lose in an unlucky matchup or limp into the playoffs and then win three coin flips and win the championship? Can I answer this question with a movie quote with a drop? Oh, yeah, sure.

Let's see if I can get this to work. Oh, okay. It don't matter if you win by an intro on my. Winning's winning. Nice, dude. Obviously. What movie is that? What movie is that?

Fast and furious. Come on. Never seen one second of. Any Fast and Furious. They're delightful trash. And I mean that in the most loving way possible. Team name Tuesday on a Wednesday delightful trash. Yeah, of course, Ben.

You win the league. Who cares what he did in the regular season? You know, the Seattle Mariners did not have the greatest season in baseball history because they set the wins record. They freaking lost in the playoffs. And that was the last time they've been to the playoffs, I think. Yes. As a Braves fan, I do want to say, I can take some enjoyment out of a

good season that doesn't end in a championship. Oh, yeah, yeah. It's not as good as winning a championship, but I still feel pretty good about myself. Not in fantasy. No, fantasy. I still feel pretty good about myself. I could see that if I had like 15 division title banners hanging up, but I would have rather been a Braves fan in the 90s than a Marlins fan, even though they won the same

amount of titles. But if the Braves had won one in titles. Well, the Marlins won more than one. I was sorry. welcome if you if you go into the next decade, which the Brays were still winning during. But anyway, no, I feel good. Like, if I have a season where I'm the highest scoring team and, you know, I just happen to have bad luck in the playoffs.

I mean, I'm annoyed. I'm frustrated. But I still know I had a good year. I don't feel like I need to be changing my approach or anything based on it. I'm pissed. Yeah, I know. But you can look back and give yourself a pat on the back for having a nice year, but you don't get a, you don't get a ring with that pat on the back.

No, it's definitely better to win. All right, it's Worryometer Wednesday. Worryometer Wednesday, zero to ten. How about Charlie Morton? Zero to ten. Maybe like a five. Yeah, you gotta be a little bit worried. Yeah.

Three non-quality starts in a row, and just kind of, that ERA keeps creeping up. The strikeout rate keeps creeping down. It's not to the point of, like, sitting in. His velocity's gone down as the season has gone on, but it's not, like, an alarm. It's one mile per hour from April to now. That's nothing, yeah. Yeah, like, it's happened. It's not really, like, a huge deal.

He's changed his approach a little bit. He's gone more sinker heavy in the month of August. Maybe that explains some of it versus the four-seem fastball. We know that the, uh, the Astros are our team that, you know, prefers the four-seeing fastball, especially elevated in the zone. So maybe that explains it. I don't know. Well, I think, you know, what I noticed about him, like, let's just take the last two months.

Charlie Morton has a, on baseball reference, 0.82 ground ball to fly ball ratio. And then if I take a look at the first three months up to June 26th, so it was 0.82 in the last two months, first three months, sorry, doing this on the fly. it was 1.15. So he, even though he's getting, even though he's featuring the sinker ball, he's not getting the ground balls. Yeah.

That I find interesting. Oh, the last two starts have been better. Yeah, and over the last 15 starts, he has like a 370 ERA. That's higher than you'd wish, but it's still usable. Five for Charlie Morton. Kenley Jansen, who stopped taking his heart medication. He said his medication was making him kind of tired,

and that contributed to his poor outings. And then, yeah, he was fine yesterday. gave up two runs on three hits in a walk in a non-save situation. Kenley Jansen, zero to ten. Is that the reason he stopped taking it? Yes, the doctor told him that he was fine to not do it. It did sound a little crazy to me, but... Yeah, that's...

I'm not really worried. I'm like a three. All right, Kenley Jansen. Chris? Yeah. I would feel more comfortable answering that question if I was a doctor. Because I don't know, like, I don't know what the side effects of that medication are. What the, like, I can't really answer that question. I hope he's fine. All right.

Jesus Aguilar on Worryometer Wednesday. Jesus Aguilar has started 10 games in a row, and he had a nice little stretch in mid-August, but overall, since the All-Star break, Aguilar is batting 222 with five home runs and, you know, good plate discipline, but not great. Four doubles. He's been crap. Wariometer on Aguilar. Four.

Four. I mean, I still think he's a good hitter. Did he have some correction coming? Yeah. And we're seeing that, but he does have five home runs since the All-Star Break. That's certainly not a bad total. His playing time hasn't suffered with the additional, the infield additions there. So I think he's fine. I think he's must start still. Yeah, so looking at his last 15 games or his 15-game rolling log on fan graphs, like his fly ball rate is down, but his line drive rate is also 29. percent over the last 15 games. His hard rate, hit rate, his hard hit rate is down as well, but over the last 15 games, it's still 46%. So maybe a little bit of an unlucky stretch. I think, yeah, I think that probably explains it. You know, like his strikeout rate's not alarmingly up.

I don't, I don't see any glaring warning signs. Okay, that's Jesus Aguilar. And next up, we have Brian Dozier. Brian Dozier. Interesting ways to look at this with Dozier, but what is your wariometer on him? I will go like a six, probably higher than Charlie Morton. He's at like 240 now as a Dodger after getting off to a really good start with them. You know, the BAPIP is still lower than we're used to seeing, but he's not hitting for the power we're used to seeing either.

And it's getting late. you know, we're waiting for that late season surge. It hasn't really come yet. So I'm a little concerned. Okay, yeah, batting 2.13 or his last 16 games at the 649 OPS. Chris, Brian Dozier. Five. Five, okay.

And finally, Madison Bumgarner. Look, seven scoreless innings yesterday, but a 123 whip, 86 strikeouts, and 102 thirds. Like, he's got a 268 ERA. I don't know that if he was named we're not Madison Bumgarner that anyone would be comfortable with him. So Chris Worryometer on Madison Bumgarner. So we've had the Madison

Bumgarner talk a few times and I guess I'm like a 6 but it's mostly because if you're asking me like Wauriometer will he be Madison Bumgarner am I worried he will be that? It's a 10. I won't

I don't think he's going to be that. Sorry, sorry, sorry. But I've accepted this new reality where Madison Bomb Garner is no longer an elite starting pitcher. Yeah, you know, it's shame that you actually did give a number pretty early in that, because the Hesus Aguilar thing, you talked for quite some time and never gave a number, but I didn't have the clip queued up. You know what, Adam? Have you ever given a Wauriometer number?

Huh? No. I don't think so. You sit in your tower, and you... You sit at your tower. You sit at your tower. Why don't you come down here on the ground and try to do this job? huh? Okay, sorry.

Scott, Bumgarner. Carlos Carrasca is a bust. Will be a bust. No, I co-signed everything Chris said. I think Bumgarner is a quality pitcher, particularly in today's landscape, particularly how he still pitches deep into games. I think five straight, six plus innings,

and he was eight last time. That's still pretty valuable, but he's not. I don't think he's an ace anymore. He's a less safe Zach Granky. I would just like to say my Wariometer for next week for Madison Bumbarner is at about a 6.8. He is at Colorado and at Milwaukee. And he's already been at Colorado once, and he did fine. And we know they're not, you know, the pitchers do well in Colorado sometimes.

At Colorado, at Milwaukee, a little bit nervous about that, which is, you know, saying something. All right, that's your Wariometer Wednesday. Injuries, news and notes. Mike Schilt is the full-time manager for the Cardinal. Seattle manager Scott's service cut his hair to match Edwin Diaz's hairstyle. It is pretty cool. You should check it out. Brett Anderson, in the most predictable news of all time, is on the DL with a forearm strain.

Philadelphia acquired Jose Baltista in a very non-consequential deal, unless it keeps, unless like Odubo Herrera sits more or something. That would suck, but that's not going to happen. I don't know. Jed Jerko has a mild groin strain. James Paxton set to return on the... Sunday. Marcelo Zuna could be back this weekend. Should be back on Saturday.

Junior Gera could be pitching his way out of the Milwaukee rotation, because they have Zach Davies that they could replace Gera with. Ross Stripling could be back this week. Do we know if he's going to be a starter or reliever? Ross Tripling. I assume he's going to be a reliever because that's what they were heading toward when he went on the DL. but as I've been saying every time we talk about Walker Bueller and I thought it was notable Walker Bueller pitched only four innings yesterday

in his start even though the result was pretty good he can't have many innings left he threw 98 last year and you know he probably is the one who needs to go to the bullpen instead of stripling and a little few more news items Nelson Cruz started in right field at San Diego, any homer, so that was cool. Kendris Morales sat. It wasn't even the N.L. Park yet, but he sat. You might get a really bad week from Kendris Morales.

And Luis Rias batted second, started at second base against Seattle for the Padres. And, Scott, you didn't give any thoughts. You weren't on the podcast yesterday. Why don't you give us your quick thoughts on Luis Rias? Yeah, I feel like he's the kind of prospect that fantasy owners may overlook. You know, he's been in the prospect discussion for a couple years now. I think is only like fourth or fifth in the Padre system, but they have a lot of really good prospects.

They have a really good system. Yeah. He was 32 on Baseball America coming into the season. Yeah. So he makes a lot of contact. He hits a lot of line drives. It's yielded a high batting average throughout his minor league career, and I suspect it will in the majors too.

But there hasn't been much power, home run power, at all. And obviously, that's kind of a pre-referral. requisite in today's game to be a fantasy asset. But I think back to Francisco Lador, I think back to Ozzy Albies, I think back to even Glaber Torres, who had the same question about, okay, but where's the power? You know, Luis Arias has always had one of the highest exit velocities among minor league hitters. If he can figure out how to elevate the ball a little more, it could happen.

He could be a 20-homer guy. I think it's feasible. Did you rank him? Rank him? Yeah, did you rank him? Like, is he in your rankings right now? Did you have a chance to do that? You know, I did update my rankings yesterday.

I forgot to put him in. Oh, well, let's rank him. Let's figure out where you want. Yeah, I think he's just shortstop eligible right now, but he's going to gain second base. And that's his long-term position because they have Fernando Tatis as their shortstop in the future. So it's probably going to be primarily a second baseman. All right, but would you rather have shortstop? Would you rather have Jonathan's scope or Arias?

I would rather have... I mean, Scope doesn't play that much. Yeah, I think Arias, because of that. How about as Drubal Cabrera or Arias? I mean, as Drewbel Cabrera has been doing nothing, I got to go... I think I'd roll the dice on Arias there, too. Chris Taylor or Arias?

Aureas, because Taylor has playing... time issues now. Jose Parraza. You know, Parraza's been surprisingly productive. I'll go with Paraza. All right, all right. We got a nice little range there. All right, we got bow pen news.

Greg Holland got a save for Washington. Justin Miller, they were trying to get him to save, but he gave up two hits and a run in a third of an inning. So what the heck? Also, Pat Nysheck blew a save. It looked like he was getting that opportunity. In either bullpen, do you guys see someone worth owning in Washington or Philadelphia? I do.

Greg Holland got the save for the Nationals yesterday. Obviously, he was supposed to be a closer coming into the year. And he's been really good since joining the Nationals. Good strikeout rate, I think only a couple walks, which was his issue with the Cardinals. I don't think it's crazy to think all the problems they've had. He could take over that role. I could think of probably about five other relievers who are less than 50% owned that I'd rather have.

Well, I also wanted to bring up Hector Nerris, because Nerris, since being recalled, he has gone seven and a third, giving up three hits, no runs, with one walk and 16 strikeouts. So I think it's interesting that Neeshik and Justin Miller were both used for save chances yesterday. They both blew their opportunities.

And maybe they get the next one. But it's a mess. But Neris is Maybe someone worth speculating on it He's kind of right at the ship And Holland too You're absolutely right He's been very good with the nationals

Will Smith and Dellen the Batanzas Both entered the ninth inning in tie games at home And both got the win And both were used as closers I don't know if that means In Patensis' case that he is the closer But he was used in that scenario Let's go to the next segment

Are you buying the breakout? Are you buying the breakout? out. Aaron Hicks, Matt Chapman, and Miguel And Duhar. Chris, are you buying what you've seen from Hicks, Chapman, and And Duhar? For Chapman, yes. I really, really like what he's done. I think he's kind of made a Josh Donaldson in Oakland leap, not a Josh Donaldson in Toronto leap, but he's very good. I kind of feel the same way about Aaron Hicks. I think he's established himself over the last two years as just a really solid player who doesn't really, he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses that make me think he can't continue to be productive.

Someone who will have probably more value in Roto than head to head. But actually walks a ton and doesn't back out as much as you think. Yeah, I might have said the opposite, frankly. Well, I like him in Rota just because he's going to steal 15 bases. He's going to hit, you know, if he plays a full season, he's going to hit 30 homers. I think he's good. I think he might be a breakout candidate next year. I think he's probably not going to get the credit he deserves for how good he's been this season.

In terms of head-to-head points per game, I want to say he's a top 10 outfielder this year. It's been a while since I've checked, but I think that's true. Yeah, Aaron Hicks is overall number 21 in points, number 24 in Roto. He's only played 111 games. He's already set a career high with 22 home runs. He actually has, I think, basically, yeah, his home road splits are almost identical this year. Last year, he had 12 of his 15 home runs at home. I figured he would be that kind of player, but he's, I guess, becoming somewhat of a well-rounded player.

And Duhar is so interesting. Since the All-Star break, and Duhar is batting 347 with 10. home runs. He's really been one of the better players in baseball. His first 18 weeks of the season, he had three weeks out of 18 with more than 17 fantasy points. He does double a lot. He's got 37

doubles. I put 12 triples. I think that's two triples in 121 games. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I'm buying Ann Duhar. He's on an amazing strategy right now. The BAPA is fine. He doesn't strike out much.

My concern for him would is he really this good of a home run hitter because the fly ball rate's not so great but at the same time home run to fly ball rate is 17.6 which isn't like you know it's it seems it seems like something that could be sustainable so

or he could be this or he could be next year's Jonathan's go like I think that's it could be legit or he could be that he's going to sophomore slump for sure careful what Yankees fans are nuts right now

if you say anything remotely not positive if you say anyone even belongs in the discussion for rookie the year besides Miguel and Duhar it's just like 47 bros from the Bronx who are just like

hey I'm walking here and it's ridiculous so they must not they must not watch any of his fielding because he's just awful what if you said Glaber Torres instead No. Torres is making a nice little comeback there, but it's going to be one of those two. It's going to be Shohayotani.

It's not going to be Shohayatani. Probably is. You know what? The most important thing is that next week I've got coming my way. Well, let me give you the choices. I want everybody to know the menu I'm looking at. I get to pick three of these. I won't read the entire description.

This is my Blue Apron menu for next week, and I get to pick three of them. I'll even let Chris Towers pick. spicy glazed chicken and honey butter corn pasta and creamy tomato sauce with summer vegetables pork fried cauliflower rice black bean and zucchini enchiladas Mediterranean salmon

Mexican beef bowls roasted cauliflower crispy chicken tenders and mashed potatoes I mean I love me some chickie tennies but I'm going to go with the Mexican beef bowl Mexican beef bowl all right I will subs up we got three of of them, you know. So I will substitute the pork fried cauliflower rice. Chicky tendies. That's, that's,

that's right up there with rotete. Rotay. Adams Rotetet. Slangifying word. And there is. I mean, Blue Apron gives you a nice rotatee of fish, beef, pork, chicken, pasta, their pizzas are unbelievable. Have you, like, when do you go to a restaurant and order black bean and zucchini enchiladas with cheddar cheese? You know, it's a great vegetarian option. So many great recipes on Blue Apron, and you need to get signed up right now. I absolutely love it. Go to blueapron.com slash fantasy baseball. Blue Apron.com slash fantasy baseball.

Another added benefit is I really learned how to cook, and I really enjoy cooking now. I sent three free meals to Chris Towers, and he enjoyed the hell out of them. So I think you're all going to love Blue Apron. Blue Apron.com slash fantasy baseball. It's affordable. It's less than $10 per person per meal. It gets delivered right to your door. It's delicious.

It's variety. And there's nothing quite like it. Blue Apron.com slash fantasy baseball. Blue Apron, a better way to cook. I don't think I mention you get your first three meals free at that URL. Blue Apron.com slash fantasy baseball. There we go. Thank you for picking my meals.

Chris Towers. Let's have a Max Scher segment. Are you guys seeing anything here in Scherzer that concerns you a bit in his last 12 starts? He has a 13% swinging strike rate. It was 18%. His first 16 starts. ERA is still great.

Strikeout rate is good, but it's not Scherzerish. Anything here? Sherseran. Yeah, it's not a... This is a Shazarian segment. Our Shazarian section. Damn it! It was perfect.

Shazarian section of the podcast. Are you seeing anything in Shurzer that concerns you at all? Adam. Yes. No. Okay, good. Moving on. Moving on.

None up. Three down. Any of these guys over. owned. Ender in Ciarte at 86%. He actually is batting 307 since the All-Star break, but his point production just isn't there. I'm wondering if it's playing time. He hasn't, they've faced a lot of Ritey, so they haven't had it. We really haven't had a chance to test how much they're going to sit him for Adam Duval,

who's just done nothing since joining the Braves. But the fact he has one stolen base, three chances since the All-Star break. Yeah, the correction was coming for the batting average, but without the steals, it's pretty fringy. Carlos Gonzalez had 80% owned. Yeah, I mean, how many leagues are daily? And then how many are five outfielder? And then you start adding it up, and it's probably a little too high, but there's probably, you know, it's August 29th. Let's be honest, there are probably some teams who are not paying attention.

There are probably some seasons that are done. So, you know, that could explain. some of these over-owned players. Gonzalez has about a thousand OPS at home, so keep that in mind. And finally, Taylor Ward. Taylor Ward is 51% owned, batting 182 so far with 15 strikeouts and 13 games. Is he over-owned, Taylor Ward? No.

It might be under-owned. Catcher's just that bad. Yeah. You've got to try your hand at the guy who's playing every day and had awesome numbers in the minors. Yeah, and the strikeout rate is weird because he's only. swinging and missing 7.3% of the time, but he's striking out 31% of the time. So I think he probably just needs to be a little more aggressive. That was a weird way to say aggressive.

Aggris. Four-man rotation. Now, why are these guys in the rotation instead of fringy starting pitchers? Because they are owned in more than 80% of leagues. Lance Lynn, Clay Buckholz, Julio Turan, and Walker Bueller. How many of them deserve to be owned in? almost every league. Lance Lynn, Clay Buckholz,

Julio, Taran, Walker Bueller. Bueller, for now, I mean, I have my concerns about how long that's going to last. That was great. I didn't even mean to do that. I just naturally sound like Binstein. Clay Buckholtz, I would add to that group. I'm not sure Taran doesn't,

but, man, he's scary. I think he has the lowest babbip of any starting pitcher, too, just to pile on the concerns. Yeah. So Bueller and Buckholtz definitely. Tehran and Lynn there. They probably deserve to be in the fringy starting pitchers in terms of ownership. Yeah, Lynn has had some really good matchups that hasn't taken advantage of them. I mean, he faced Toronto and he faced Miami and had one bad inning in each of those starts. Detroit this weekend, so I'd still like to start Lance Lynn at home against Detroit.

We'll see after that. But look, I wanted to start him yesterday against the White Sox, and it wasn't that good. It wasn't terrible, but it wasn't that good. That wasn't bad, but it wasn't good. Fringy starting pitchers. One out shy of a quality start. It feels much better if you got that out. Yeah, but a lot of base runners.

Eight and five and two-thirds. All right, fringey starting pitchers. Who do you want? Anthony DiSloffani, Kyle Gibson, Matt Nullin-Boyd, Jacob, Junis, and Felix Hernandez. Desclafani, Gibson, Boyd, Junis, Felix, Fernandez. Scott. Gibson's still my favorite of this group.

I would own him over to Ron. or Lynn or maybe even Buckholz. Oh, he's been awful, though. I know he has, but it's still a good swinging strike rate. I mean, awful's overstating it. The last couple of starts have been bad. Last five starts, 5, 2080, R.A. And only 21 strikeouts.

But 21 strikeouts and 29 innings. All right, you're talking me down. I'll take Buckholz over him, okay? All right, let me talk about Gibson. He's at Texas this weekend. It's a tough, tough matchup. But if you stick with him, he's got the Royals at home next week, so maybe you'll be okay starting him there.

Yeah. All right, Gibson, Descophani, Boyd, Junis, Felix. Jacob? Junis might be, yeah, might deserve to be back on a radar. Just one home run. Sorry, God. Just one home run in his last five starts, I think, and it was after that awful stretch in the middle of the season

where he was giving up three home runs every start, it seemed like. Three homers and eight starts, since the All-Star break. He's actually been pretty awesome since the All-Star break. 47 strikeouts to 12 walks and 45 and a third. That's with a 3-46 Babbup and he still has a 318 ERA. Getting a few more ground balls, he's in the like 45% range in that span, which is better. That's going to help him keep the ball in the yard, and his home run to fly ball rate has normalized over his last eight starts since the All-Star break.

47% ground ball rate and 8.8 home run to fly ball rate. So, you know, still an above average strikeout pitcher. He's doing a lot well right now. I think what's obvious with a guy like Ender and Ciarte, who'd always been like a 22-ish steel guy and a guy like Jake Junis, is that when you see a player overperform in a particular stat, like steals or home runs allowed, they are then due to underperform to get them back to a more normal pace.

Exactly. Okay, there we go. I was just going to leave if that was going to fire. If you were going to start that up again. We've got emails and tweets and we got today's matchups, and Scott's going to get out of here. Scott, though, Jacob Nix and Philip Irvin in deeper leagues. Do you like either one?

I like Irvin more than Nix. Knicks throws a lot of strikes, but there is nothing deceiving about it. Complete game with no strikeouts. Complete game with a one. It wasn't a complete game. It was eight and a third, I think. Almost a complete game. Give a break.

I expect the people who are angry that I said Carlos Rodon is not good to also throw on the caves for Jacob Nix. Because all that matters is results. Nerds. Nerds. Nerds. All right. All right, Scott, get out of here, dude. Hi, Scott.

Well, it's about time. Now let's read some emails. Emails, ladies and gentlemen. This is from Kevin. Elvis Andrews has a 435 OPS in the last two weeks 643 over the last 30 days Sub 150 batting average last two weeks And he hasn't been a source of speed at all

Is Elvis Andrews dropable That's been a frustrating I wonder if he's just not 100% healthy He missed so much time Because a lot of the peripherals look like they did last year But the results just haven't been there And if he's not running that's a big part of his value.

Like a big part of why I liked him was he seemed to take a step forward. He was going to probably hit 15 homers and steal 25 bases. He has four steals. And there's no sign of him turning it on. So I'm fine with dropping him, actually. I have the hiccups, everybody. I'm not sure if you're hearing that. I apologize.

Boo! Oh, all right, we're good. This is from Fudd. Since you are all so down on Carlos Rodon, can you give me some names of fringey starting pictures that we should be starting instead of Rodon? I'm going to say something that might sound crazy. You ready?

Yeah. I think I might prefer Lucas Golito to Carlos Rodon. Yeah, I can't really. He's doing some stuff. He is, but he's also had like three awful starts amidst his good starts. Yeah, yeah. But over his last six, yeah, his ERA is still high. But he's getting a decent number of strike.

That's, I think, like, 25%. He's cut down. down drastically on the walks, down to 7.3%. Um, throwing his two seam fastball more, throwing his change up more. Throwing harder, changed his arm slot. I just think there are more sustainable signs with Lucas Gileo at this point than Carlos Rodon. I don't know if I'd be more willing to start him, uh, but that is my bold take.

Lucas Gialito will be better than Carlos Rodon now for the rest of the season. Okay, fine. A few more Look, I don't want to start Lucas Gialito, so I guess that means I don't want to start Carlos Rodon if I'm listening to Gris.

But, uh, all right. Look, I don't know if I have the, what am I saying right now? I don't know if I have the moral turpitude. Is that the right word to, to not start Carlos Redon with the way the results have been? Terpetitude. So I'm, I'm a coward. Okay. I'm saying.

I'm sorry. Ten team points league is from Frank. Zach Godley and Tyler Glassnow are on the waiver wire. Both are two start pitchers next week. Are either worth picking up. And who has the most upside rest of season between Godley and Glassnow? Both are worth picking up. I think I'd rather have Glass Now, but it might depend on the matchups.

I think Glass Now is just very good now. Yeah, I think Scott would be a little concerned. about Glass now because he's not throwing quite as many strikes. Let me look at the matchups for next week. Godley has the Padres and the Braves at home, and Glass now has the Blue Jays on the road and the Orioles at home, so both have good matchups. Yeah, I would like to start Glass.

And I'm pretty much at the point where I'm starting him. You know, even with a few more walks, like he hasn't had a bad start in terms of walks yet. This is from Rob and East Bruns. New Jersey. Dear Sam, Diane, and Coach, or Woody. Chris is too young. Yeah, that's, oh, come on.

I watched Cheers. I'm in second place in my head-to-head categories league, daily categories. The playoffs start next week, I'll have a buy. Jake Bowers has been horrendous. He's in my utility spot. Should I see if Bowers breaks out of the slump during the buy week? Should I move on? And if I should move on, should I drop Bowers for any of these guys?

Melke, Renfro, Nick Williams, Aledmas Diaz, David Dahl, Tray Mancini. Melke, Renfro, Nick Williams, Aledmus Diaz, Dahl, and Mancini. I am not moved to drop Jake Bowers for any of those guys. I would rather let him see what happens in the next week and then go from there. Yeah, if there were one, it would be Dahl.

Yeah, I'm just not sure he's going to play as much. Yeah, he sat yesterday, and that was with a D.H., so. This is from Joshua, five-by-five roto league. Six teams make the playoffs. I think it's red-ho-headed categories. Top two, get a buy. I'm in fourth place. I've had trouble all year with saves.

I've recently lost Will Smith. Wait, recently isn't Will Smith? No, Will Smith is still there. You still haven't. Should I punt saves and drop Jeffress and Yates and Hope for Saves? Or go off... I mean, this is just an email that needed to be proofread. Or go all in on starting

He punt saves He's got It seems like he has Will Smith Jefferson Yates I don't know that you need to punt saves I don't know if you need to punt saves But man Kirby Yates has been hurting you A lot

Got to say yesterday And that's the concern for me Is he doesn't have a big track record He might just not be that good And he might have just had a good three months And this is from John in Peoria, Illinois He was talking about our plate discipline discussion from yesterday.

Another guy to watch in 2019 is Nick Madrigal of the White Sox. He was the best hitter in college baseball on the number four overall pick. Still has to develop some power. His OPS is really low. But he has four strikeouts in 128 minor league at bats. I see the White Sox having Madrigal up in 2019 opposite Yoamankata. He does. He has seven walks to four strikeouts.

Incredible. And no home runs. Yeah, that, you know, Alex Bragman, I think, had a similar stretch where he wasn't hitting for a ton of power early in his minor league career. Madrigal was a contender for the number one overall pick in, I believe, this most recent draft. So there's certainly tons of talent there. I'd be surprised if he's up with the team before, like, June next year, because he's only in high A. But it wouldn't surprise me if he starts in AA. and once you're in double a you're a phone call away oh is that a is that like a what happens

at Vegas stays in Vegas thing exactly once you're in double a your full call away okay Chris Alec Mills threw five and two thirds one run ball with eight Kays against the reds last time out today he faces the Mets and jason Vargas are you starting either guy metz at cubs I don't think I am no Trevor Cahill at Dallas Kichel um I'll start both Oh, really? Yeah. Because K-Hill has a 692 area on the road. That's fine.

There's no reason to believe that he can't get strikeouts and ground balls outside of the O. Dot Co. Coliseum. Michael Fulmer's at Daniel Duffy. I'll start Fulmer. Erasmil Ramirez at Joey Lucasey. I don't think I'm starting either of those guys. Trevor Richards at David Price. I'm starting David Price. Carlo Gio Gonzalez at Jake Areetta.

I'll start Areata. Rinaldo Lopez at Cici Sabathia. I'll start Sabathia. Ryan, we're up all night to Baraki at Alex Cobb. I don't love the idea of starting Baroquee, but I don't hate it. Freddie Peralta at Matt Harvey. Peralta. Adam Plutgo and Cole Stewart.

Pass. Bullpen Day for the Reyes and Sean Newcomb for the Braves. Newcomb. Yeah, you're going to start them? Yeah. Yeah, I know the raids have been hot. I know Newcomb's been up and down. But you got to dance with who you came to the dance with, Adam.

Yeah. Yeah, you do. That's a good point. Alex Wood at Mike Minor. This is a really tough one. I own both of these pitchers in my headhead categories league, and I am torn. I don't think I would start minor.

I'm okay with starting wood, but the Rangers are not a very good matchup, even against lefties, despite how many lefties they have. Yeah, like, minor has been very consistent lately. He has given up two or fewer earn runs in five of his last seven starts. And let me see what those matchups are.

I really want to figure out. But one of those other starts was five runs in two and two-thirds, and the other one was four and five and two-thirds. So he's basically had like a four, three ERA in that span or something. Yeah, about four. Yeah, now if you go back for more starts, I would guess he's got an ERA around three in his last 10 or 11 starts. All right, that's going to be a game time decision for me. I just don't know.

That's also tough because he might only throw 75 pitches. Mike Minor? Yeah. Trevor Williams at Miles Michaelis. Michaelis. And Zach Godley at Derek Rodriguez. I would start both. All right, all right.

So no love for Trevor Williams, who has been super hot. I just, maybe there's something I've missed, but I just don't see any reason to believe that he's taken a big step forward. I think he's pretty much a league average innings-eater kind of pitcher, and nothing that I've seen has changed that. Everybody, have a wonderful Wednesday. on Thursday on fantasy baseball today. See you later.