Fantasy Baseball Today - 10 Overvalued Fades! Sean Manaea Back to Mets, Walker Buehler to Red Sox & More! (12/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 26, 2024

To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Before we get to overvalued players, let's start with Sean Manaea who's headed back to the Mets (2:52)! ... Walker Buehler is signing a one-year deal with the Red Sox (8:24). ... Nathaniel Lowe was traded over to the Nationals (17:36) and then the Rangers signed Joc Pederson (22:35). ... Let's recap some smaller moves, including Max Kepler to the Phillies (30:05). ... Let's get into overvalued players, starting with Jacob deGrom (40:46). ... Jazz Chisholm is currently the second third baseman off the board (43:58). ... Felix Bautista is returning from multiple elbow surgeries (47:20). ... Oneil Cruz had a solid season but is going higher than he was last year (51:20). ... Roki Sasaki is already being drafted as a Top-20 starting pitcher (54:42). ... Why is Lawrence Butler rising so much (56:45)? ... We wrap up with a few more overvalued players based on early ADP (1:01:50). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Hello, welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, December 26th. I am Frank Sample joined by Chris Towers.

Hope everybody is enjoying the holidays. Today on the show, we are. handing out ADP lumps of coal. What does that mean? Overvalued players based on December 80p. And there's lots of news to catch up on. Chris, we did a bonus podcast on Sunday breaking down all of the first base movement and Jesus Lazzardo to the Phillies. And since then, a lot has happened already. We got Sean Manaya back to the Mets. Walker Bueller signed with the Red Sox. The Texas Rangers are making some moves. So let's start there. Again, did a bonus podcast. If you want to check that out and hear about Christian Walker and Josh Naler and Hazel Luzardo, all that stuff, make sure to check that out.

It's in the podcast feed. It's on YouTube as well. We're also recording this on Monday. So hopefully not much else happens in the next couple days. Let's start with Sean Mania. He is headed back to the New York Mets on a three-year $75 million deal. And the same deal that Nathan Avaldi actually got with the Texas Rangers, which seems about fair. I think that makes sense.

Manaya will be 33 years old on opening day and revitalize his career with the Mets last season. And we talked about this. It was reported multiple times. Mania tried to emulate Chris Sails mechanics, his delivery. And over his final 12 starts, he had a 309 ERA, a 0.85 whip, well over a strikeout for ending 13.3% swinging strike rate. Chris, we've seen some flashes before. but Manaya has mostly been mediocre for his career.

So how much are you buying what we saw down the stretch when considering drafting him in 2025? I think for the most part, you should treat him as if he is still a pretty mediocre pitcher. And look, his price reflects that, right? He's 183rd in ADP. Even if you're skeptical of what Shamanaya did last season, I have no problem with that price.

So I think he's fine there. I actually rank him a little higher than that ADP, but only about a round higher. So probably where he ends up after signing, it makes sense. You know, we've seen stretches of very good play from Sean Mania, but I don't think it was ever really anything like this before where there was a real seeming underlying skill change here. You know, it wasn't just like his slider played better. He actually changed his arm slot. Like you said, it changed the shape of his slider.

It changed the velocity of his fastball. It made everything play up a little bit more. So I think it's reasonable to be optimistic about him. But I think it's also worth keeping in mind that like he actually had a higher strikeout rate in 2023 than he did in 2024. He had basically the same walk rate. home run rate identical. So, you know, the underlying numbers for the season as a whole were fairly similar for Sean and I are from 2023 to 2024, especially when you take into account the fact that it was

an easier pitching environment in 2023 or 2024, excuse me, ERAs were lower league-wide. So as good as he was over that last half of the season or so, I don't think you should buy that entirely. It's possible. He's worth drafting just in case. but I think you draft Shamanaya hoping for useful rotation filler. The ADP in December is 181.6. Chris, would you rather have Sean Mania or Seth Lugo?

That's an interesting one. Let me see what my rankings say. I have Lugo a little bit ahead, so that's fine. Yeah. Okay. What about Sean Mania versus Todge Bradley? I'm going to say Mania's ahead, yeah. Okay.

Again, I mentioned the ADP is one. 180-ish for Manaya. It just feels like he should be going about 20 picks earlier. You know, some names in the 160 to 165 range. Christopher Sanchez, Zach Eflin, that probably feels more like where Sean Mania should be going.

So I think we'll see a little bit of a bump in ADP. And again, he's worth being drafted, Sean Mania as probably like an SP4, something like that for fantasy purposes. Zach Ethlin, it's fun that you mention that because that's an example of a late career breakout that wasn't, you know, and he did it for a whole season. His 2023 was significantly better than Sean Mani is 2024.

Mani, you're talking about maybe a month and a half, two months of what he did. And he came back down to Earth in 2024. It ended up being not sustainable. So that's just something to keep in mind that for what Sean Mania did in the second half, it did look legitimate, right? more than a strikeout per inning, we love that. We love to see that. We love to see the changes that he made to his arm slot, all that.

But there are a lot of reasons to think that, hey, the league might just catch up to it, right? Like pitchers pitch better on the whole, the less familiar hitters are with them. This is something you see when pitchers change leagues, especially before there was more interleague play. Pitchers tended to do better when they switch leagues. And so it's entirely possible that. what Shamanaya did last year was for real and also not sustainable, which are, you know, I think we tend to think of those two things as being different or being the same, I guess, sustainable and for real.

But I think you can you can view them slightly differently. And that's what the risk would be with Shamanaya. The Mets updated rotation is Kodaisanga, Sean Baniya, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, David Peterson. They also have some other depth behind those names, Tyler McGill, Griffin, who they signed and Paul Blackburn. They also have a top pitching prospect, Brandon Sprote, who is waiting in the wings. I think this, you know, pours a little bit of cold water on Brandon Sprode.

I think he could make starts. Obviously, there's tons of injury risk with any rotation, but, you know, just having Sean Mania back, it takes one less rotation spot away from someone like Brandon Sprope. He will get a chance at some point. Yes. Whether that's in April or June is a different question. Yep. Let's talk about the Red Sox who signed Walker Bueller to a one-year $21.05 million deal,

the exact same amount as the qualifying offer, which the Dodgers opted not to give Walker Bueller, who takes a one-year prove-it deal essentially here looking to re-establish himself and get back to the market next offseason. It was a rough return for Walker Bueller from his second Tommy John surgery. He made 16 starts with the Dodgers, 538 ERA, 155 whip. but something seemed to click in the postseason where over his final three appearances, four shutout innings against the Mets, five shutout innings against the Yankees,

and then he closed out the World Series with a save and two strikeouts in the ninth inning of game five. We saw more whiffs, we saw more movement on his breaking pitches. Chris, how much do you buy from this extremely small sample size we saw in the postseason, you know, kind of heading into 2025 a hopefully revitalized season for Walker Bueller.

Yeah, I want to, there was a quote that he had after that World Series start where he basically, or that World Series relief appearance, I guess, where he said something like, you know, I stopped holding back. You know, I just let it go. And any concerns that I had about, you know, my ability to stay healthy, my ability to hold up, I just let it go because it was a World Series. and it was a once in a lifetime opportunity to do that. So, you know, how sustainable the changes that he made.

Look, the velocity was up. The spin rate was way up. I believe the vertical approach angle was much more ideal. He was getting more rise on the fastball in those, you know, those last three appearances really, where he had 13 strikeouts to four walks, over 10 innings of work. It was also one four-inning start where he,

through 90 pitches, one five innings start where he threw 76, and then a 16 pitch relief appearance to close out the World Series. So we're talking about a very, very small sample size and not just that, a sample where in the postseason, especially the way a team like the Dodgers approaches it is, you give us as much as you have for as long as you have. And if you have to come out in the third inning or fourth inning, we'll figure that out. And so that's the other thing to keep in mind is Walker Bueller airing it out in 76 pitches in the World Series. series may not prove sustainable. I tend to lean toward it will not prove sustainable.

I think the chances of Walker Bueller being a high-end starting pitcher again for fantasy are pretty low. And I'll also point out that in 2022, before the injury, he was also not pitching up to his usual level. You can say he was hurt, but now we're talking about going back to 2021, really, the last time we saw Walker Bueller pitch at a high level. So that's, I think there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical. The Red Sox did do a lot early on last season to get the most out of, you know, guys like Cutter Crawford and Tanner Halk, but things kind of fell apart in the second half of the season for the Dodgers.

I'm not sure exactly what the numbers were in the second half, but they were significantly worse as a team. And remember, what they did, we talked a lot about it early on last season, but if you, if you've forgotten, And the Red Sox basically just spanned breaking balls in the first half of the season. And really, they did it all season. It just it caught up to them. You know, it's one of those things where we always say, well, just throw your best pitch more. And you'll be a better pitcher. And like, yeah, that can work.

It's hard to sustain that level of secondary leaning. You know, the Red Sox, I think, as a team only threw their fastball, about 40% of the time. It was the lowest rate in baseball. And you'll get more whiffs that way. You also run the risk of giving up a lot more walks. It's harder to control those pitches, potentially giving up more home runs. And what you saw in the second half of the season was strikeout rate as a whole for the team went way down. 7.9, Keper 9 in the second half, 8.7 in the first half.

Walk rate was higher. Home run rates were higher. So it kind of fell apart. They needed more talent. I think it's an interesting role of the dice. And I think Walker Bueller can also be an interesting role of dice for, fantasy, it's just, it should be around the 250th pick, I would say. Yeah. And if you look at his NFBC ADP in December, it's 268. So right around names like Reese Olson, Ranger Suarez,

Michael Waka. Would you take Walker Bueller ahead of any, all of those three, Olson, Ranger, Swares, Michael Waka? I think I would. Yeah. I think I would take the chance just because, look, any of those guys, the likeliest outcome is you're dropping them. You know, at that point in the draft, maybe not in an NFBC 15 team league context, where those are, what, 14th round picks or something?

Like that becomes a little more difficult, but in a 12th team league, you should approach every single one of those guys as if the likeliest outcome is they're not on your team all season. So might as well see if what Walker Bueller did at the end of last season was for real. I will say, looking at my rankings, I have him one spot behind a guy who's going much later.

in drafts, but Bobby Miller, and it's kind of the same thing, right? At least with Walker Bueller, we have what he did in those three appearances to say, ah, maybe he figured it out. Bobby Miller didn't even get to pitch in the postseason. He was that bad. I think I'd still rather take the chance on the like 24-year-old or whatever Bobby Miller is. We're all in vacation mode, so I just typed Bobo Miller into search.

He's 25. I'd rather take that flyer even though I know the ADP gap is bigger. Yeah, I hear you on Bobby Miller and you know, still so young, had tons of upside entering last season and it did not work out, mostly because of a shoulder injury, I think. The one thing, the biggest difference is Walker Bueller has a job. Yeah, Bobby Miller may not have a job. Yeah, like Bueller is getting paid one year deal.

He's going to pitch for the Red Sox as long as he's healthy. Bobby Miller might open the season on AAA. Yeah, there's no doubt about that. For the Dodgers right now, it's Snell, Yamamoto, glass now, if healthy. Tony Gonsland coming back, Dustin May, Shohey Otani, when healthy,

do they bring back Clayton Kershaw? So you know, there's just more questions, I guess, involved with the Dodgers rotation. Speaking of which, the updated Red Sox rotation, Garret Crochet, Tanner Halk, Walker Bueller,

Brian Beaux, Cutter Crawford, with Lucas Gilito and Patrick Sandoval, more on him in a bit, set to return from injury mid-season. Eventually, yeah. Yeah. It's, I think it's an okay rotation.

There's upside there. They probably needed another established kind of ace up at the top, but it's interesting. Let's call it interesting for now for the Red Sox. Let's take a quick break. When we return, we'll talk about a bunch of moves that the Rangers went out and made. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, Chris Tower smiling because he had to take care of his cats, I assume. Yeah, she, like, my older cat, because the younger one, she's a sweetheart, she's sleeping.

The older one's been sleeping all day. hasn't moved. We had these little heating pads in the apartment for them because it's super cold. They love them. They're very cozy. She sleeps all day. As soon as we start recording, she starts screaming to be let out of the room. And then I opened the door and she's like, okay. And she doesn't leave. And it's like, make up your mind. I got places to be.

You know, she's like, she's so unprofessional. It's like, dad, I'm trying to sleep here. Why are you making all this noise? That's fair. That's fair. All right, let's talk about the Rangers who went out and traded away Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals in exchange for left-handed reliever Robert Garcia. And Lowe is 29 years old. He still has two more years of team control. He's coming off a solid season where he hit 265 with 16 home runs and a 762 OPS. It's a park-end lineup downgrade for Nathaniel Lowe, but he's going to play.

There's no doubt about that. He kind of feels like a boring corner infielder, but Chris, what do you think about the fit for Lowe in Washington. It's all, this is very weird to me because Nathaniel Lo is a better baseball player than Jake Burger. And so it seemed like the Rangers picked Jake Burger over Nathaniel Lo, but the way it worked out really is they took a lot of the money that they were going to spend on Nathaniel Lo and they gave it to Jock Peterson.

So I guess you can look at that and say it's probably a net upgrade for the team. Jock Peterson. and very, very good against Ritey's, as we saw last year. We'll play a little bit of first base. Maybe we'll play a little bit of outfield. He didn't at all last season, but maybe the Rangers will be a little more flexible with him. But that's where it makes a little more sense.

Because, look, Nathaniel Loz, a better base runner, a better defender. And on the whole, probably a better hitter, although Jake Berger is a better power hitter. And that's something that the Rangers talked about. They wanted more power up and down. the lineup and better performance against fastballs. They apparently really struggled with fastballs last season as a team. And that was a big part of why they went out and got Jake Burger and Jock Peterson.

So you look at it as a whole and you can start to make sense of it. But I don't know. I thought this was kind of a silly move for them. Nathaniel, oh, look, we know 2022 is not going to happen again. He dramatically changed his approach at the plate, became a much more aggressive hitter. And it worked out for him that season here for a career high. hour, 27 home runs, 302 batting average, career high as well. Every other season, he's basically been between 262 and 265 batting average, between like a 12.2 and a 12.5% walk rate. And I think

between 16 and 18 home runs, he's been like a metronome in terms of consistency outside of 2022. And that's probably what you should expect in 2024. And what that comes out to in fantasy, Yeah, it's just a corner infielder, I think. He's okay, I think maybe a little underrated. But clear limitations to the power make it hard to buy in on him as anything more than a lower-end corner infielder. Yep, the NFBC ADP in December for Nathaniel Lowe is 248. He's the 20th first basement off the board. Chris, would you rather have Lowe or Michael Bush?

I guess I would rather have Michael Bush. There's probably a little more power there. so I'll chase that. Yeah, they both seem just boring corner infielders, which is fine. If you get into a deeper league, I think both guys are going to play. I think you get slightly more power,

a little bit less batting average from someone like Michael Bush. What about Lowe versus Ryan Mountcastle? As things stand right now, I think I would take Mountcastle. I think he's just a little more naturally talented of a hitter. We haven't seen that the last couple of years because Camden Yard has played so unforgiving

to right-handed power hit. but they're moving the fences in. Not all the way back to where it was before when it was a really good power park, but hopefully enough that Ryan McHawson can go back to being like a 25 homer guy. And, you know, obviously, I think there's still a chance he gets traded,

but it doesn't seem super likely. So I would go with Mountcastle ahead of, uh, of Lowe. And Nathaniel Lowe versus Christian Encarnassean Strand. I will take the chance on Christian Encarnassee on Strand. I know he was really bad last season, but he barely played. It was like, what, 39? games or something. I think people are being a little too quick to write Christian and Carnaccio

and Strandoff when do we have any reason to think he's not going to be the opening day first basement for the for the Reds or DH I guess. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't. I think he's going to play. I think maybe some people have some questions how does he bounce back from injury. It was I believe wrist surgery. He did play in the Arizona Fall League. So there are some questions there. I think there's a lower floor too where if he just doesn't perform, he's back in the minors. So from a deeper league context,

if you want someone that's going to play, Nathaniel Lowe might make more sense for your team. But if you're playing a 12 team league and you would just want to shoot for more upside, I think yeah, like, Encarnasseh on Tran has infinitely more upside than someone like Nathaniel Lowe. Yeah. Yeah, I think he could end up being very similar to Jake Berger, who's going like 110 picks ahead of Nathan, or sorry, Christian and Carni,

Nassian Strand. All right, let's continue on with the Rangers. You mentioned that signing of Doc Peterson. Two years, $37 million. Good deal here for Jack Peterson, which includes an opt-out after the first year. He's turning 33 years old in April. The dude can still rake. There is no doubt. This season, this past season with the debacks, he hit 275, 23 home runs, a 908 OPS in 132 games. his 151 WRC plus was tied for 10th among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. So just still a really, really good hitter when everything works out.

You know, there's been some inconsistencies in his career, but we know what he is, Chris. He's a strong side platoon. I would probably expect something like 20 to 25 home runs. The early ADP is 356, and he is utility only, so keep that in mind. Kind of feels like a good value at 356.

It's so tough, right? Because how like in a 15 team league, those 450 very good played appearances could be super valuable. But in a 12 team league where, I don't know, does he have a realistic path to 70 RBI even? That's not something he's done since he got exactly 70 in 2022. He hasn't had 70 plus since 2019. and he hasn't had more than 62 runs since 2019 as well. So I think it probably depends on team contacts. It probably depends on league context.

If you're in a daily lineups league, it's probably a little easier to make use of a platoon guy like that. But what if you run into a week where Jack Peterson has four lefties on the schedule? You basically just can't use him. And so I think he's fine, but he's nothing more than a late round pick, I think. Like, is there really a better outcome than what we saw last season in there? I don't think so.

Like a 908 OPS is a career high for Chuck Peterson. So probably not. And I mentioned, you know, there's been some yearly inconsistencies the year before he hit 235 with a 764 OPS. The year before that, 274 with a 874. Very similar to last year. Yeah. Yeah. So he's kind of has this like off-on thing.

but, you know, when he's right, he's going to play against right-handed pitching. Surprise he only had 64 RBI. I understand he is a strong side platoon player, but the D-backs were just the best lineup in baseball. He walks a lot. Yeah, 12% walk rate. So you're already talking about only 449 plate appearances last year. 367 at bats.

So that's actually one of the things that makes him a good hitter for real life makes him a slightly worse hitter for fantasy. And that's just 350 at 58. at bats or 370 of bats is just not enough. Like that's actually a very good ratio of RBI 2 at bats. It's just he can't really get to 600 bats. So, you know, it's hard to make up for it. There are definitely limitations in terms of playing time and plate appearances.

And as a result, yeah, that will keep the counting stats down. That's a good point. If you believe roster resource, they haven't batting cleanup right now against right-hand pitching. I think he'll be very good. when he's in the lineup. I think he'll be useful for fantasy. I just don't really see a path to anything more than useful. I mentioned the ADP is 356 for Jack Peterson. Maybe that should be a little bit higher. Someone like Stanton is going at 323. Much more power upside with Stanton, obviously,

but lots of injury risk. And the overall output, it'll look a little bit different, but I don't know that I expect like that different of, you know, players when it comes to Jack Peterson versus Stanton. So he'll probably move up a little bit there. Some other fallout just for, I guess, all the teams involved here. Does this feel like good news for Jake Burger? Do you think his playing time is a little bit more safe because you've expressed some, you know, concern, some pessimism there on the playing time for Jake Berger? I think it ultimately comes down to how he hits, but I do think the fact, look, Jack Peterson has played a little bit of first base in his career. I think it's like 12 games at the major league level. So I have no

idea if they expect jock peterson to be able to fill in if needed at first base the diamondbacks i don't think he played a single inning in the field last season so it's an open question whether the rangers view him as a d h only or do they think jock peterson can play a little corner outfield if needed do they think he can play a little first base if needed if it's just d h i think it's probably not great news for jake burger because he's a pretty bad first baseman i don't think they want him to play third base. I would I would doubt it at least. Maybe it's, you know, there's some Josh Young insurance there for them. But yeah, if he can't slot into the DH spot, I think it does limit his paths to everyday at bats. And look, I think at this point,

you have to expect Jake Berger to be an everyday player. And we'll talk about him more a little later. But I still think just, look, anytime you're talking about a guy with a 301 on base percentage, I think there's always going to be playing time unless they do at least one other thing spectacularly. And for four months last season, basically, Jake Berger really didn't do anything well. So if he gets off to another slow start, I do think there's still some downside risk,

even if swapping out, because effectively they swapped out, Nathaniel Lowe, who's a first base only guy or DH-only guy for Jog Peterson, who's probably just a DH. So I think it maybe gives Berger a little more of a cushion. And for the D-backs, it seems like they are committed to Pave and Smith at D-H as a strong side platoon and really small sample size last season. But Pave and Smith performed well.

He hit 270 with nine home runs and 896 OPS. Great expected stats. He hit the ball really hard. Great barrel rate. He also crushed in the minor league. So assuming the D-backs don't make another move for D-H, you know, Paveen Smith and N-OPS, only leagues, you know, really deep mixed leagues, I think maybe could have some value as a streamer

in those formats as well. I do want to mention, maybe this is more me trying to speak it into existence. Hopefully we get some major in Del Castillo, D.H. time. Because right now, Rosser Resource has him slated to start in the minors. He more than held his own at the major league level last season. There was some unsustainability to it. He struck out a lot, but he made a lot of contact at AAA last season.

for a lot of power. He's catcher eligible. I would love to see Adrian Del Castillo be the other side of that platoon. Well, he's a lefty as well, right? Is he, that makes sense, I guess. Yeah, he's a lefty bat. So is Pavin Smith.

There is a chance. I mean, it could just be a battle in spring training or if Pave and Smith just falls flat on his face early, maybe Del Cateo gets a shot. The only thing is, I'm not much of a believer in Pave and Smith personally, but I know there are people who think he's pretty good. I know that their management already came out, or front office came out and said that they want Delccio to be a catcher.

They don't want them to be a DH, so take that for whatever it's worth. But yeah, the bat did look pretty interesting in a small sample size for both of these guys, Pavin Smith and Delcastio. We'll see if either one can take that opportunity and run with it. Some smaller moves recently. We'll quickly run through some. The Phillies signed Max Kepler to a one-year $10 million deal.

he'll be 32 years old on opening day took a step back last season but was very strong in 23 Chris do you see any deep league value here for max kepler it's a very good park um he showed really really strong skills in 2023 especially gave a lot of that back in 2024 it's hard to know how much of that was just 2023 wasn't for real how much of it was he was just never healthy in 2024 which i think is part of the problem but it's is also part of the problem with Max Kepler writ large. But yeah, you look at the expected home runs. It would have been over the last three seasons 12, 29, and 12 in Philadelphia

compared to 8, 21, and 7 in Minnesota. That's a significant difference. So I do think Max Kepler has 25 homer upside. It's a very good lineup. It sounds like he's going to play pretty regularly. maybe not every single day, but, you know, I don't think, I think ideally they don't view him as like a Brandon Marsh where we can't play him against lefties. So that's something that, you know, if he's healthy and gets off to a strong start, I think Max Kepler could be in line for decent playing time. He's a decent late round pick. How would you rank the three kind of platoon bats here that we talked about Kepler, Pavin Smith, and Jack Peterson?

Peterson, Kepler, Paveen Smith. The Nationals signed Mike Soroka to a one-year $9 million deal, and they planned to use him as a starter. He got off to a terrible start with the White Sox last season, but changed his pitch mix in mid-May. He focused more on the fastball and the slider after that. And over his final 16 appearances, 275 ERA, 122 whip, 15K per 9, five walks per 9. But it was kind of interesting, Chris. What do you think about Mike Soroka here? Mike Soroka was kind of bonkers.

the, you know, what was it, the final 14 or 16 games, you said? Yeah. 39% strikeout rate over his final 17, or 16 games. Now, that was, I think, almost entirely as a, it was entirely as a reliever, but almost entirely as a multi-inning reliever. There were only, I think, five outings where he pitched an inning or fewer, a bunch where he went to, three, or four. Control was not great, but, you know, like,

mentioned there were some pitchment exchanges he was going more force seam fastball less sinker more sliders was getting big whiff rates with them i think he got even more extension he's always been a pretty big extension guy um and so i am interested in soroka the way we were interested in ranaldo lopez a year ago no lopez was better as a reliever um but i i think it's worth keeping an eye on how Mike Soroka's spring goes to see if, one, he breaks the rotation, which we expect at this point, and two, if he looks good, then I think he's at the very least an interesting spark for 2025. The Red Sox signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year $18.25 million deal, and he underwent internal brace surgery in June, was non-tendered by the Angels in November, and likely won't

be back until the second half of the season. So I don't think this is a stash candidate. he's a streamer in the second half, something like that. I'd be surprised if we see much of him in the second half, but this feels like a, like a Liam Hendricks signing. This is a 2026 signing. And there aren't a lot of examples of teams doing this and it working out, especially with starting pitchers,

this like two years, but it's really a one year deal. And they're just paying them for this year while they recover. You'll see it work out a little bit with relievers. I think Ken Giles, it did okay coming back from his injury. Kirby Yates would be a very good example of this because I believe the Rangers signed into one of these deals two years ago.

I can't really think of a lot of starting pitchers that it's worked with. And Patrick Sandoval obviously doesn't have a particularly high floor anyway. So this is one we need to see something before we really think about Patrick Sandoval. The Pirates re-signed Andrew McCutcheon to a one-year $5 million deal and he is now 38 years old. Still does some things well. He had a 328 on base percentage, hit 20 home runs, 739 OPS,

81st percentile barrel rate, but he's util only, I think, more NL only player and a streamer in deeper mixed leagues in 2025. The Ray signed Eloy Jimenez to a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training. Once a former top prospect,

he's still just 28 years old. His career has been derailed by lower half injuries. He does. did post an OPS of 858 as recently as 2022. So it's a low cost, I think, mildly upside move here for the race. They don't really have spots available right now, but maybe they trade a Yandy Diaz, something like that. Yeah. I don't know. It's something to watch. You know, very, very, very I think he has to prove something. But like, if we get to spring training and he's pulling the ball

and hitting the ball hard and, you know, looks like he's got an inside track to make the team, we can talk about him. You know, I drafted Miguel Sineau in an AL-only league last year. It feels like a somewhat similar situation. The Mets signed Griffin Canning to a one-year $4.25 million deal

and he's 28 years old. This kind of just feels like rotation depth for the Mets. The A signed Gio Arcella to a one-year deal and looks like he might actually be their starting third baseman. Last season hit 250 with nine home runs,

647 OPS and 128 games. Still makes a lot of contact. still provides solid defense, not really much there for fantasy, really just an AL only play, I think. And the Yankees traded Jose Trevino to the Reds in exchange for reliever Fernando Cruz and catcher Alex Jackson.

Trevino will be the backup catcher for the Reds. The Yankees get an intriguing reliever here for the back end of their bullpen. 14.7K per 9, devastating splitter. The Yankees have actually done a pretty good job just getting relievers on track. they did the same thing with Clay Holmes a couple years ago. So maybe holds leagues.

You need strikeouts, something like that. I think it's a kind of interesting move. And I think this kind of unleashes Austin Wells. You know, Alex Jackson is bad. He's legitimately bad as a backup catcher. So I see 425 plate appearances projected by Steamer for Austin Wells. I would take the over comfortably. I think Austin Wells is closer to like 500 plate appearances next season.

Yeah, when we first did our ranking, you know, especially like position by position rankings. I had Wells as a top 12 catcher. And I ended up moving him down a little bit, but like I think he's in that range. You know, that low end catcher one, high end catcher two range. I'd rather have,

I'd rather have Austin Wells than Cabo Ruiz or Gabriel Moreno or Connor Wong, who I think are just like batting average specialists at best. I think Austin Wells, like the, the quality of contact numbers for Austin Wells were really, really good last year. He's a very good defensive player. I think there's a chance that he is a very useful fantasy option,

probably just a platoon bat. He was very bad against lefties. I don't know how likely it is that they'll even give him much of a chance. But 761 OPS against righties, hit for some power, walked a lot. I think there's something there for Austin Wells as a, you know, cheap option in a one-catcher league or a solid number two catcher. All right, before we hit our final break,

just a reminder that fantasy baseball today is a finalist for the best baseball podcast in the Sports Podcast Awards. The winner will be determined by a fan vote. So we need your help. Scan the QR code if you're watching on YouTube or click on the link in the episode description. Once you get to that page,

there's an FBT logo, you click the thumbs up, you punch in your info, and it's easy as that. home the hardware, we really do appreciate it. Let's take our final break when we return some overvalued players in early ADP right after this. Last week we gave out some ADP presents, some ADP gifts for the holidays. Today, Chris, we are giving out ADP lumps of coal, a.k.a. The overvalued players based on early ADP. There have been 64 drafts completed over at the NFBC. That's the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. I realize I referenced a lot and some people listening might not have a single idea what the NFBC is. So yeah, just lots of

high stakes fantasy baseball drafts going on right now. And we have five names each. So we'll alternate. We'll go back and forth. And Chris, we will start with your first overvalued player. It's Jacob de Grom, who in NFBC drafts is, I guess it's gone down a little bit, but his ADP earlier was like in the 30s. I think now it's what, in the 40 range? It's at 43 as the 19. It's at 43 as the starting pitcher off the board. I, fine, I guess it's cheaper than it was, so I can't complain as much, but that's still, I just can't justify that for a guy who has not thrown 100 innings since 2019. And I know what people will say, and I've heard a lot of it, is, well, yeah, but he was the number

three pitcher in 2021 in just 93 innings, and technically that's true. as good as Jacob de Grom was at his best. He was not a true talent, 108 ERA pitcher. Nobody's that good. He was not a true talent. What was it? 0.5 whip pitcher, I believe, in that.

0.5.5 whip. 0.5. Like, he was 93 innings of the best reliever in baseball. And look, man, maybe he can still do that. He was 31 then. He's 37. midway through this season. Like that's just, that's asking so much.

Like, you can look at it and say, well, we were saying a lot of the same things about Tyler Glass now last year. And it worked out, okay. He was the number 20 starting pitcher in 130 innings, I think, 134 innings, which was a career high for him, would be Jacob de Grom's highest since 2019 now. The assumption is Jacob de Grom's a better pitcher than Tyler Glass now. I don't know. Like I hope so.

We really have not seen him pitch. Like this is just, I get it. And there will be times when, especially in April, when Jacob de Grom is on the mound and he's striking out 11 in six innings in his first start and giving up two hits and it'll feel dumb to have been out on Jacob de Grom. But if it's going to cost a fourth round pick as a top 10 starting pitcher,

there's just no way I can justify it. Like, Jacob de Grom has thrown as many innings over the past three seasons as Tyler Glassnow through last year. Like, it just, it's so hard to justify. I know he was the best pitcher of this generation. I still believe that.

But man, like, no 200. And to be fair, 2020, he was healthy. And he was amazing. I have to imagine he was the best pitcher in fantasy. Maybe Shane Bieber was better. He's he had a bonker season, but Jacob de Grom was very, very good in 2020. He was the number eight pitcher.

I can't justify that price for a guy who hasn't pitched this often. I do agree with you wholeheartedly on DeGron being overvalued. In my preliminary rankings, I put him at SP19. So that would have to be, I would have to wait until the sixth, seventh round to get Jacob de Grom

in a 12-team league. And I don't think that's going to happen very often. So you are muted, sir. I have him right around the same range. It's a 69th in the overall rankings. All right, let's talk about my first overvalued player. It's Jazz Chisholm with an ADP of 25.9 in December. He is the second third basement off the board.

And you will notice a theme for a lot of the players I chose here. I think a lot of people are dreaming on upside for these players that I chose. And I get it. Jazz in 46 games with the Yankees hit 273, 11 home runs, 18 steals. his 150 game pace, 35 homers, 58 steals. That would be amazing and worth a first round pick, there's no doubt. But this was also the first time that we've seen Jazz play more than 124 games in a season. He has an extensive injury history.

And I feel like people are forgetting. He suffered a sprained UCL in his left elbow in August. And after he returned, he didn't hit well in the regular season, you know, late August on. didn't hit well in the postseason. Now he still had two homers and six steals. That's what we remember. Okay, he was, he made some things happen in the playoffs, but he hit 182 with a 559 OPS. So I feel like there should be a little bit more risk baked in here. Maybe a three, four turn pick, a fourth round pick, something like that. But for Jazz to be, you know, more like the two, three turn going ahead of Austin Riley, Raphael Devers, and Manny Machado, seems a little rich.

I have him exactly at 26. He's my number two third baseman. I totally get it. And I did a poll either at the end of the season or beginning of the off season where I asked on Twitter, is it overstating it to say Jazz Chisholm has number two third basement upside? And most people said yes. Most people said that was overstating. And then we get to drafts and people are drafting Jazz Chisholm that way.

So that's kind of funny. he was also the number two second or third baseman last season. It was partially, I think it was because a couple of players who were third base eligible are no longer. I think Vladimir Guerrero was one of them. But among second base, third base eligible players, Jazz Chisholm was the number two player for 2024. And there's a chance he gets second base eligibility, which would certainly help because then you're not comparing him to Austin Riley and Raphael Devers and Mani Machado.

you're comparing him to, I mean, Jose Altuve and Marcus Simeon and Ozia Obis, who are good players, but are going at least a couple, and in some of those cases, several rounds later than the third baseman. So I'm not saying you should count on Jazz Chisholm to get second base eligibility, but we could get to a point this spring where it looks very likely, in which case I think this is going to seem like a discount. And just what he did with the Yankees, you know, I don't think you can expect a 35 homer, 60 steel pace, obviously, but 25 to 30, 40 to 50, the way they let him run. It's possible.

Yeah, the upside is there for sure. There's no doubt about that. I think people have probably learned this by now. When I draft top three, four-round picks, I'm trying to draft as safe as possible and just kind of build out that foundation. I think there's a little bit too much risk for me personally taking jazz somewhere at like the two-three turn. Chris, that's totally reasonable. Back to you for another overvalued player. Well, let's stick with the theme. It's another guy coming back from Tommy John's surgery. It's Felix Bautista, who is being drafted as the number 7 RP as a top six pick for fantasy.

And look, the last time we saw him, he was the best closer in fantasy. He was arguably on a per inning basis, the best pitcher in baseball, 148 ERA, 16.2K per 9. He had 110 strikeouts and 61 innings. It was totally, totally bonkers. And I think there's a decent. and chance he comes back and he's just that guy again, but it's not at all a guarantee. And it's worth being clear that Felix Batista was very good in 2022, but it wasn't quite at that same level, right?

The strikeout rate was significantly lower. ERA was a little higher. Peripherals weren't quite as good. Still a very good pitcher, but being drafted as if he's that guy still, we have not seen this guy throw a single pitch coming back from Tommy John surgery. It's reasonable to assume that guys will be who they were before the injury, but it's not at all a guarantee. I mean, you look at someone we talked about in the most recent episode, Max Meyer,

who came back from Tommy John surgery. Similar timetable where I think he had it at the end of the previous season, had plenty of time, the whole offseason he was healthy, came back and just wasn't the same guy. Shane Boz, another one where, you know, and I'm trying to focus on because we had Walker Bueller last year, who also was a disaster. Maybe it's different because he's a reliever.

I'm trying to focus on guys who came back from their first Tommy John surgery and in Boz and Meyer, but you can't just assume the explosiveness will be there. And that's what we're doing. If he comes out in spring training and looks like himself, all right, that's fine. But this is way too rich a price to pay for a guy we have not seen back from the injury. Yeah. And he did have a few minor procedures since having Tommy John surgery. In February of last year, he had right elbow debridement and an ulnar nerve transposition so they clean up some scar tissue they they move the ulnar nerve so it would not be compressed those are added risk factors here for felix botice he's still ready expected to be ready for spring training i mean there was some talk about him pitching at the end of last season the

or else shut it down but like the he was pitching off to the side at least if you look at just relief pitcher a dp rysel iglesias is going just behind him i think that's a very easy i would take eglacius ahead of Felix Bautista. He's, you know, so proven. He feels like a safe closer as safe as they can be. Lower ceiling. Yep. The next name's an ADP.

There's all kind of questions about, there's questions about all of them. It's like, Andres Munoz, another electric arm. There's a big upside there, but the Mariners just never seem to just fully turn over the closer role to him. So I think the upside is kind of capped.

Robert Suarez had a bad second half, a questionable second half. and then Yohan Duran, you know, he took a little bit of a step back, some of the underlying skills, and similar questions with the twins. Do they just unleash him and let him be the closer? So I agree with some concern with Felix Bautista,

but I think that next kind of tier of ADP, there are questions with all those guys as well. I have those three guys ahead of Felix Bautista for now. I think those are the only ones in 80, because I assume Mason Miller's going ahead of him. Yes. And Ryan Halsley also. we'll see where he ends up pitching, but I can't imagine he's not going to be a closer.

So he feels like it does feel, I think that's a fair point where like it does feel like there might be just a drop off there. But the problem is he's going around. Felix Batista is going around ahead of those guys, except for Rieseliglaclius. So I would take Rasseliglacios ahead of him. I would take Munoz, Suarez, and Yon Duran as well. but that is one that could change when we get to spring training. All right. My next overdrafted player is, and some people are not going to like this, Chris.

Hey, fun. You might not like this either. O'Do Cruz with an ADP of 43. He's the seventh shortstop off the board. He's the 15th outfielder. Still just 26 years old. He's coming off a solid season. He hit 259, 21 home runs, 22 steals, his first year back from the ankle surgery.

We haven't really seen that upside yet. this 30-30 upside. We know that he hits the ball as hard as anybody and as far as anybody. O'Neill Cruz's ADP last offseason was 64. It's jumped up 21 spots, which I just don't really understand. There's still major questions here. A 30% strikeout rate. Don't know if he can hit lefties.

He, for his career, has a 40% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. And the Pirates lineup is still really bad. So I feel like he should be going closer to last year's ADP. you know, one thing I thought about while comparing that is maybe you shouldn't compare ADP year over year. There's just, it's just a completely different player pool. And I get,

I think people want to draft hitters early on. And they just see O'Neill Cruz as the next, this is the next hitter that should go, right? And they're kind of waiting on pitching as a whole. So I think that's part of it. Like they're just looking, all right, who's the next hitter that should go in this fourth round range?

And it's like, okay, O'Neill Cruz is the next name up. Let's just take him. But I just feel like he should be going, like, I don't know why he's like a top five or something. six-round player. I just, we haven't seen it. We haven't seen anything closer yet. So we did see it a little bit in the second half. He ran a lot more once, especially, I feel like it was like right around when he got switched to outfield. He started running a lot more. And, you know, maybe it just took some time for him

to, to feel comfortable unleashing, you know, after that. But he had 15 stolen bases in the second half of the season, didn't get caught stealing once. Only had seven in the first half. And that was in about a hundred fewer plate appearances. So I think if you're looking for a reason to be optimistic, it's just that he did get better as the second, as the season went on. I don't know. I'm, I rank him right around this price. So I don't really have a problem with it. But I also don't have a strong, a strong feeling about it. And I don't think in the three drafts I've done so far, I've drafted him. I've actually not drafted Jess Chisholm in the three drafts we've done, even though I, I rank them. both right around ADP.

So there are guys ranked being drafted later, who I have ranked ahead, specifically Jose Al-Tuve. I think we're all higher on than the consensus. I think Michael Harris is going a little bit behind O'Neill Cruz. I would rather have him. I think there's a safer ceiling there as well. So I don't mind O'Neill Cruz's price. It's just he's not a high priority for me.

And again, I just think that's the point in the hitter pool where things kind of drop off. So I could see myself starting a lot of drafts, three hitters. And then, you know, once we get to the fourth round, if I don't really like the hitter pool left, like, all right, let's start to build up that pitching depth. You know, rounds four, five, six, something like that in the middle rounds.

But yeah, to me, O'Neill Cruz, I pick 43 is a little bit too early. Chris, we have about like 10, 15 minutes left. So let's try and move a little bit quicker through some of these final ones. Who is next up for you overvalued by early. ADP. Roki Sasaki, and I've talked a lot about what my issues with Roki Sasaki are, so we don't have to get too deep into it, but it's kind of similar to Jacob de Grom and Felix Batista. A lot of the things with pitcher is just, we know all pitchers have a lot of risk and why take on more. And Roki Sasaki, incredibly talented player. I think he's the best pitcher who has not pitched in Major League Baseball yet in the world. Velocity was down about two miles per hour. last season he's dealt with arm and upper body injuries over the past couple of years. Only 33 starts the past two years. I think he'll be very good in Major League Baseball, but we haven't seen that yet.

So it's just this is being drafted at his ceiling, right? Like never thrown 130 innings in a season. Well, Tyler Goss now was the number at 20 SP and 134 innings last season. So maybe that's a reasonable expectation for Rokie Sasaki. But then you're not baking in the downside risk. which is that, one, he doesn't adjust to the game as well as we'd hope and gets off to a slow start or struggles. Two, he just doesn't stay healthy, which is a very real possibility given his history. And two, that he's just not as good as we think he is, at least not right away, given the velocity drop that we saw last season.

So I just think it's too aggressive for a guy who hasn't pitched in the majors and has injury risk. That ADP for Sasaki in December is 75.4, the 19th starting pitcher off the board. Where are the preliminary ranks for Sasaki ahead of his signing, which is expected in mid-January? It's going to be around 90. So I would rather have like, I think Max Fried is super undervalued right now. I think we talked about that on the presence show. But I'd rather have him. I would rather have Bailey Ober.

I would rather have Logan Webb is going way later later. I'd rather have him. So yeah, there's a handful of pitchers. I would rather have the Rokey Sasaki. All right. Next up for me, and I don't know how this happened. And it hurts my soul to say earlier in the offseason. I talked about how excited I was about this player.

And I was thinking maybe he'll be my Valentine's Day or the player I love for 2025. No. Lawrence Butler. The ADP is 72.1. He is the 18th outfielder off the board. And my preliminary ranks, I have him, you know, outfielder 24, and even that I thought was really aggressive. I like what he did this past season. 22 on runs, 18 steals in 125 games, his first full season, solid expected stats, strong exit velocities.

He's hit lefties so far. It's a park upgrade going from Oco to Sacramento. But this is pretty rich. I mean, he's going ahead of Teoscar Hernandez, who we don't know as of now. We don't know where he's going to play. We don't know where he's going to play. But Brenton Doyle, say,

Suzuki, Luis Robert, Brian Reynolds, Anthony Santanderer. These are all players who, you know, look, Doyle's only done it one season.

I get that. But Luis Robert, we've seen him have pretty big upside as well. Doyle's only done it one season. Lawrence Butler hasn't done it for a full season yet. Like he was great last year for like, what, three months,

four months? Like, I get the excitement. But he, here's, another argument against him. Would you like to know what his ADP was in 22 October drafts

on NFBC? Outside the top 100. What seven? What changed in the last two months? I'll tell you what. Steamer projections came out. And Steamer projects Lawrence Butler 253, which is, okay, that's fine.

27 home runs, 90 run scored 21 steals with a 759 OPS. He currently grades out as the 17th outfielder. in steamer projection. So I think that has a lot to do with it. And look, there's other people in the industry that are excited about Lawrence Buller. I'm excited.

What this kind of reminds me of, Chris, is I really liked Bobby Miller last offseason, but I just don't think that I was baking in enough risk where I was ranking him and my excitement for him. And it was right around this ADP. He was like a top 75 pick. It's completely different. I get it.

That's a pitcher. There's more risk with pitchers. I get that. But Lawrence Buller is also a young, player. He's not all that proven. I like him, but, but this is rich, man. I mean, look, this is rich. Not all that proven. You're overselling it. He had a 1210 OPS in July. He had an 886 OPS in August. He had a 739 OPS in September. Don't take the decline as my argument. That's not it. I don't care about the direction. But it is worth pointing out that he only played two months at this level. He was

a total non-factor until July. He had that bonkers July. Remember, he had a 10 RBI game, I think. Drove in 27 runs, 10 homers, four steals, really good in August as well. We have two months that we're going on. Like if you're wondering who this year's Nolan Jones is, Lawrence Butler's probably our best candidate. That's evil, man. I think he's fun. I'm rooting for him. I get it. I like, the underlying numbers are very good. Like there's not a lot about it that says fluke, except that it's a, a guy who's only done it for two months.

Like, we just, that's a really, really high price to pay. And like one thing I wrote about in my outfield state of the position preview back in October at this point was the position is much healthier than it has been. last year, we had to push guys like Josh Lowe and Nolan Jones up our draft boards, despite knowing, hey, they didn't do it for very long. There were some real risk in their sample size. We had to push them up because the position was bad. And what I liked about the position in 2025, looking ahead, was Brenton Doyle was like the 90th pick, not a top 70 guy.

And so you're not taking on as much. risk. And we're just not doing that with Lawrence Butler. We're just treating it like what he did for, let's say, three months was legitimate. And that's just, that's really, really risky. And this is something that might totally just be unique to NFBC. Once we get CBS, Yahoo, ESPN ADP, maybe Lawrence Butler is outside the top 100, outside the top 120. And if that's the case, I'll say, yeah, let's jump in. We'll draft him at that. Absolutely. And hope he can go 20-20, but, you know, to expect him to go 27-20.

And I've got him 80-second, which felt a little aggressive. Yeah. Yeah. I like the player, but 72 ADP is the 18th outfielder, I think, is going to be a little bit too rich for me. All right, Chris, you have two other names here. Give me both. Just lump them together. You got Lane Thomas and Jake Burger.

Yeah, Lane Thomas and Jake Burger. Jake Burger, I waffled on. I wrote about him last week as a bad ADP value. you. The low trade, as we talked about earlier, does make me back off of that a little bit, but I still think there's just really, really low floor here for a guy who, like I said, 301 OBP last year was pretty much useless for three months for fantasy. A lot of you dropped him. He's a super streaky hitter, and maybe he just stays hot the whole year like he did the year before,

and he's a really good pick. But I can't make sense of his 123rd overall ADP right now. And then Lane Thomas, I just think Lane Thomas is not a very good player for as a hitter. I guess he's a pretty good defensive player and he has speed. So he can be a decent player overall. But like, I don't know, man. I'm not sure. Like he was really bad with Cleveland after the trade.

He's basically only been good in Washington with that pull heavy approach. I don't know. I am not at all convinced that Lane Thomas is an everyday player for the Guardians. there's been some rumors that they're going to trade him. We don't know where he's going to end up. I think there's a chance Lane Thomas is just a wasted pick. Yeah, the ADP for Lane Thomas right now,

165 is the 38th outfielder off the board. I made this comparison last week when we did the undervalue players. Tommy Edmund is going up pick 190 as the 47th outfieler off the board. I don't see a huge difference between their skill sets. Cedric Mullins, 209.

That's the one that I can't. makes. Why is Cedric Mullen going 50 picks later? Like, yeah, I think there are similar playing time concerns, but right now, I don't think Baltimore can get away from him with the way things are set up. So I, yeah, I don't get that one. I think people have forgotten how truly terrible Lane Thomas was when he got to Cleveland as well. 53 games, seven home runs.

He had a little bit of a home run stretch in, I think, September that kind of saved him. but he only stole four bases. And he only hit 209 with Cleveland. It's not a great home park for right-handed hitters. And he has massive left-right splits in his career. He's much better against lefties. So is there a risk he falls into a short-side platoon? I think there is.

I feel like we started to see some of that in Cleveland. And then he got hot in September. He had seven homers in September, but he was starting to lose playing time. He didn't get 100 plate appearances in either month. August or September with Cleveland. So, yeah, I think there's a lot of risk at this price. I can't really make sense of where he's going.

Two final overvalued players for me, Shane O. Mac. I can't play the sound drop, Shane McClanahan, because, you know, I'm talking about him in a negative context. Unfortunately. There goes the money. Something like that. The ADP is 113.6 as the 35th starting pitcher off the board. Some people might think this is a tremendous buying opportunity for Shane O.

Mac. I'm not saying I have all the answers. but he's coming back from his second Tommy John surgery and to me that kind of feels like a coin flip right now in terms of how likely is he to get back to the pitcher he was before. We started to see a bit of a declining skill set even before he got hurt as well. We already know that he's going to be capped around 150 innings

in 2025 for the Tampa Bay raise. So I just feel like he should be going a little bit lower, closer to other pitchers that I think also come with some risk If you look at pitchers in the 140 to 150 range, Brian Wu, Jack Flaherty, Jared Jones, Kodi Senga, Spencer Strider, I feel like Shane OMAX should be closer to that range of the ADP. He's SP 35 off the board.

I haven't ranked that deep into my starting pitchers yet, but I can say confidently he will be outside of my top 40 starting pitchers. And I do want to point out the ERAs were always pretty good, but McClanahan's XERA in three seasons, 457, 279, 410. He was basically the outlier strikeout guy one year, 2022. That was also the best year of his career in terms of control. 2021, 27% strikeout rate, that's good, but it's very good.

It's not elite. 7.2% walk rate, that's fine, but again, not elite. 26% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate in 2023. He's, I think, going to be 28 this season. coming back from that second Tommy John surgery, I think the 140 to 150 range is right. I've got him at 141 right now. And then the last player for me is Pete Crow Armstrong

with an ADP of 34.4. He's the 31st outfielder off the board. This is another upside play. The price isn't egregious, you know, where he's going right now. Final 57 games performed very well. Hit 289, 7 home runs, 9 steals in 806 OPS. Those numbers are really carried by an awesome August, but did take a step back again in September.

The steamer projections for PCA 244, 15 home runs, 27 steals. I'm going to go back to it. I don't think that's that much different than Tommy Edmund, who's going 60 picks later in ADP. Now, the upside, I think, is much higher. Like, if everything clicks for Crow Armstrong, can he approach 20 home runs with 40 plus steals? I don't think that's crazy.

I'm just not expecting anything close to that. So higher upside for someone like Edmund, maybe even a lower floor, but it feels like maybe Edmund should be a little bit higher and NPCA should be a little bit lower. Yeah, 133 games between AAA and double A. He had 25 homers, 47 stolen bases. So I get the upside argument. But it was weird because it was always like, yeah, he's hitting really well in the minors. Why don't people like him as a hitting prospect? Because it was always like, Peky Armstrong is the best defensive outfield prospect in baseball. That's what everybody's been saying for years.

And he was consistently putting up mid-800s OPSs. And that kind of sounded like it should have been a top-five prospect. But there were a lot of questions about the hit. And we saw that early on last year. Really outside of August, he was pretty bad as a hitter. So I like Pekar Armstrong. I think he's a decent bet. But I do have him about 150.

So I agree with you. It's just a little high. All right. I think that pretty much covers it. We had 10 overvalued players there. Gosh, so much news to cover as well. But we are going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.

And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.