Fantasy Baseball Today - 10 Players With Questions! Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Tarik Skubal & More! (1/04 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: January 4, 2024Chris Towers is back and he's all baseball (2:00)! ... Let's get into the players we have questions about, starting with JT Realmuto (3:43). ... What will the playing time look like for Christian Enca...rnacion-Strand (8:28)? ... Will Ha-seong Kim's power take a step back (15:02)? News (20:15): the Padres signed Korean reliever Woo-Suk Go. ... Who is the real Jake Burger (23:28)? ... CJ Abrams is a third-round pick (27:24)! ... Do we buy Nolan Jones (34:13)? ... What is the ADP on Tyler Glasnow and Tarik Skubal (39:49)? ... Should you target Blake Snell and/or Hunter Greene (52:48)? To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
Hey there, welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, January 4th.
I am Frank Stamphill, and today is a very special day because not only is Chris Towers back, but now he has hair.
Welcome back, Chris. Happy New Year, bud.
Yeah, new year, new Chris, new hair.
You know, I started shaving my head like early on in the pandemic just because I saw some pictures and I was like, oh, that's, that's going to be a problem at some point.
And I wanted to see what I would look like with a shaved head.
And it's the kind of thing where once you start doing it, you kind of just got to keep doing it or else you got to commit to growing your hair back.
And that's what I'm doing.
And I think it looks okay for the people watching.
It looks fine. I don't know.
Yeah, I don't have much recollection of you with hair.
I feel like as soon as I joined this podcast, you kind of just, you went full like stone cold and just shaved your head.
And that's kind of the only towers I know.
But yeah, it looks for you.
You might have met me one time in person with hair and then that's it.
Yeah, pretty much.
Anyway, today on the show, we are breaking down 10 players that we have questions about.
We're in the process of doing our rankings, positional ranks, overall, top 300, all that kind of fun stuff.
but we're still kind of early on.
So we're diving in and these are the players that,
I mean, really, Chris has the most questions about,
but as I've already seen the list,
they are a very interesting group of players.
So that is the main focus on today's show.
But before we get into the players,
Chris, I know that you have a pretty big announcement.
If people follow you on social media,
they already know what it is,
but for the listening audience, you can reveal it now.
Yeah, I always feel bad when that point comes in like July slash August
where I kind of have to just like,
disappear from the baseball side and go cover football.
I'm the only person left on our staff.
I think it really covers both sports full time.
I know, Frank, you do some football stuff.
But that's no longer the case because in 2024,
I will be focusing on baseball full time.
So I'm very excited to, you know, kind of,
I'm doing the fantasy football newsletter this week as we're speaking.
And then that's it.
as far as I'm aware, I'm baseball only for the rest of the time.
So I'm looking forward to it.
I'm really excited to, you know, be able to continue to pod with you and Scott.
And, you know, I have a great time here.
I love our audience.
And to be able to give it my full, full undivided attention for forever, hopefully.
Very much looking forward to it.
And I think that there's only one appropriate reaction, obviously.
Oh my goodness gracious.
I thought you're going to go with a different, with a different drop.
Do, uh, is it, let's see, uh, of all the dramatic things I've ever seen.
Uh, do I have, I only have a few over here.
I don't know which one you're looking for.
Shallow.
Ah, gosh.
Yeah, I don't have that one loaded up, but it would have been a great one.
We're happy to have you full time baseball all year round.
Should be lots of fun.
And believe me, I understand the, um, the work that goes into covering bold sports.
So, uh, hopefully this is easier for you and, uh, easier for everybody.
the consuming audience and all that fun stuff.
Let's get into the 10 players that Chris has questions about
and we're going to start at catcher.
I don't know why people always start a catcher,
but we're going to start a catcher.
And then we're just going to kind of work our way down.
J.T. Rulamuto, who this past season had a fine season.
He hit 252.
He had 20 home runs, 70 runs scored, 16 steals.
No longer a standout at the position in terms of playing time.
His 540 plate appearances were seventh most at the position.
He's getting up.
there in age. He turns 33 years old in March, which for a catcher, I mean, that could be a
pretty scary time. Chris, what are some of the biggest questions that you have regarding JT.
Real Muto? Well, I just think it's mostly interesting that he had another J.T. Rail Muto
season, right? Like, and it's not like, you know, obviously the counting stats weren't great. Only 70 runs,
63 RBI. But now he's all of a sudden, you know, three rounds behind Adley Ratchman or two rounds behind
Adley Rutchman in NFC ADP, 71 versus 50, but, you know, four or five rounds beyond where
we've seen him go.
And so I guess the question is not so much.
One, do we expect another step back from J.T. Romuto after, you know, what was kind of
a career year in a lot of ways in 2022, or at least, you know, comparable to his career
best seasons, took a step back in 2023, is, does his price reflect, one, the, you know,
expectation that at 33, he's going to take another step back, or, and I think this might be the
answer, do we just feel a little better about some of the other options at catcher in a way that
makes, you know, reaching on Raal Muto and the, you know, the out of position stolen base
production that we get from him and all that, does that make that a little less relevant?
I think it's probably a combination of both things. Again, turning 33 years old in March, it's
kind of a scary time for a catcher.
With that being said, I mean, the sprint speed was still elite,
and he still had 16 steals.
So, frankly, given how fast he was,
I'm surprised he didn't steal more than 16 bases,
based on just like the new rules and the new environment.
But catcher does feel pretty good.
Maybe famous last words, but like the top of the position,
obviously there's Ruchman, William Contreras, Will Smith,
I mean, in that Dodger lineup with those counting stats,
it's going to be awesome.
Yiner Diaz, but then it goes pretty deep too.
Like as we get further down, Sean Murphy, Wilson Contreras, Gabriel Moreno, Jonah Haim, Bo Nailer, Logan O'Hoppy, Cabo Ruiz.
There's a lot of really good names.
So maybe not as much of an emphasis to push Real Mutual up the board, as you mentioned.
Just some other quick things I noticed about just his profile.
Strikeout rate was a career high, 25.6%.
The fly ball rate also career high, 42%.
So I think that led to maybe a lower bad bit, lower batting average overall for him.
And oddly enough, really, really bad at home.
Hit 176, 198, excuse me, with a 576 OPS at home.
That was much better in 2022.
So like, there are some, I guess, kind of bad signs.
I think he could regress the other way and get better at home.
Overall, I'm not really worried.
Like, if this is his ADP, I could see drafting him at that point in like a two catcher league.
Yeah, and that's what I'm saying.
You know, I think the way we, you know, set this up, it might be like players were scared of a little bit.
That's not really.
It's mostly just players that I think are really interesting as I'm going through the rankings process and guys that I'm sure you and Scott have talked a ton about a bunch of the guys that we're going to talk about throughout the off season.
So this is mostly, you know, as I'm getting back to the process of putting together rankings and kind of catching myself back up, you know, these were guys that stood out.
And I think Rayo Muta's price, like obviously the strikeout rate jumping back up to 25.6%.
Like you said, a career high, although.
right in line with 2020, 2021, when he was 24.6, 24%.
The quality of contact data was actually close to the best that he's had in his career.
You know, the expected Wobon contact 421 is actually the second best that we've seen from him.
And when you start diving into like some of the granular plate discipline stuff, you know,
his zone contact rate, his in zone swing rate, his chase rate, all that stuff, more or less looks like
it has in the past.
So I'm not sure the strikeout rate is necessarily indicative of like a declining skill set.
As much as it was maybe what he did in 2022 wasn't sustainable.
But I will say, I think at his price, I think drafting him is pretty reasonable.
So that ADP since December 1st for JT. Rilumuto over at the NFBC, 73.1 as the second catcher off the board,
going just ahead of William Contreras and Will Smith.
Let's move on to the first baseman you have on this list,
and that is Christian Encarnacion Strand,
who just turned 24 years old,
had a massive season in the minors and then got called up,
and actually looked pretty good with the Reds as well.
So in 63 games, hit 270 with 13 home runs.
I know he finished really strong.
His final 24 games, he hit 333,
nine of those 13 home runs,
and OPS over 1,000 during that time.
If you combine his major and minor league season,
33 home run.
So there is legit power here,
hits a lot of line dries.
I think there's upside for batting average.
Obviously,
it's a great ballpark as well.
The problem,
which is what we've talked about
a lot this offseason already,
is this log jam of playing time
with the Cincinnati Reds
because for some reason,
they went out and signed Jamer Candelario,
and that's not a knock on Candelario.
I think he's a fine player.
It just felt like something
the Reds really did not need at all.
So they have Candelario,
they have Matt McLean and Ellie De La Cruz
who are going to play up the middle,
in the infield.
They still have Noelvi Marte,
who was a really regarded prospect.
Rossal Resource has Candelario at first base.
They moved Spencer Steer to the outfield.
Right now, Jonathan India is penciled in at D.H.
I think there's a good chance that he can get traded.
But the way things are currently constituted,
there is a lot of jam here.
And I think one of or multiple of CES
and Noelvi Marte and Spencer Steer
are probably going to lose some playing time.
Yeah, and it's, you know,
Encanaccio and Strain hasn't really played much in the outfield
and a couple dozen innings between the majors and the minor
so I don't know how realistic that would be for him.
Yeah, there's just a lot of moving pieces here
and there was the quote from the Reds GM
where it was basically, we don't expect to make any more moves
this offseason, which is stunning,
given the number of guys that they have in their lineup.
You know, like it would be one thing if CS could play right field,
you know, then it would be a little easier to get.
at his bat in the lineup.
But, you know, as things stand, he's like a 10th round pick in NFCADP.
And he's gone as early as the, I guess it would be the fifth round in, you know,
that's a 15 team league.
So it's actually, well, like an eighth round pick at 130th overall in a 15 team format,
10th round in a 12 team format.
And I just, I have some concerns about that kind of investment in an all or nothing kind
of power hitter who may.
may not play every day.
You know, and it's the kind of thing where playing time concerns tend to figure themselves out, right?
Like if Christian Arcarnacion is a is an 850 OPS bat and hits 30 home runs, yeah, it might be
frustrating when in the first three weeks of the season he gets five days off.
By June, that'll probably not be an issue one way or the other.
If it's, he's just too good to take out of the lineup.
If it's just someone gets hurt, life finds a way.
And so it's less that concern and more the concern that if he gets off to a slow start,
a demotion is well within the realm of possibility,
even for a guy that we all really like and think he's talented and the Reds really like,
that's the concern when you're talking about a situation with this much uncertainty about playing time is,
it's not necessarily, is he going to play four days a week the whole season?
Because that's unlikely.
Most teams don't do that.
it's can things go wrong to the point where he just outright gets sent down?
I think that's the downside that's well within play
and makes it sort of tough to invest in him with a 10th round pick
when like he's going 10 spots after Spencer Torkelson,
who has no concerns with regards to that
and has arguably already had the season that you're hoping
you know, Christian Encarnacian Strand can have.
Yeah, I think Encarnassion Strand is,
is one of these vast range of outcomes type players
where if everything works out,
like you mentioned, if he's hitting,
he's gonna stay in the lineup.
It's an up and coming lineup.
It's a great ballpark to hit in, obviously,
that you don't have to squint too hard
to see like a 270 plus home run season,
which that's arguably like an Austin Riley type season, right?
But there is that downside where if he does get off
to that slow start, as he mentioned,
he could wind up back in the minors
or lose some playing time.
So I think you,
you kind of got to have to decide.
Based on your roster construction,
if you have enough safety,
can you be willing to take that risk?
But maybe you don't have to
because there are other names going in that range.
Josh Naler and Yandy Diaz going basically in the same spot,
you know,
like five to 10 picks higher than Encarnacion Tran.
You have Vinnie Pasquantino,
who was everyone's darling breakout last year.
He's going 35 picks after Encarnacion Tran.
You have his new teammate,
Jammar, Candelario,
who's going around pick 220.
Well, I think he's going to be really good in that ballpark.
They just paid him three years, $45 million.
He's going to play.
He's the one that I don't worry about.
I think he is going to play.
You talk about like, I know there are reasons to be skeptical of what he saw
parades did last year, but that's another guy who had the season we're hoping Christian
and Carnacian Strand can have.
He's, what, a year older?
doesn't play in as good of a ballpark,
probably not as good of a lineup
if everything goes right for the Reds.
But if Christian and Cardassione Strand
at the end of 2024
has 31 homers, 98 RBI, and hits 250,
we're probably pretty happy with that.
And that's what Issaq Paredes just did.
That's one where there is value
in going beyond the surface level numbers
when it comes to the stat cast stuff
because Isaac Paredes is never
going to look good by the stack has data because he's just a pull ball merchant on the fly on the
fly ball side. And so, you know, if anything changes there, he's got a very narrow, uh, margin for error in a
way that Christian incarnation strand probably has more raw power. But yeah, that's one that, you know,
he's going, you know, 40 or 50 picks later than an incarnation strand. And so that's where like
paying up for incarnation strand just doesn't feel super.
great for me. Yeah, and to be very clear, I do think Encarnacian Strand is a really talented player,
but you have to kind of weigh the opportunity cost of where he's going in the top 10 or top 12 rounds
and to go along with that downside in terms of the playing time risk. Let's move on to second base,
Hassan Kim, who actually has second, third, and shortstop eligibility on CBS. Just had a huge season
finished as the fifth best second baseman in Roto, the eighth best second baseman, and had to
points leagues, hit 260, 17 home runs, 38 steals.
And this is closer to the player that he was in KBO,
where we saw a little bit more power.
And frankly, I don't know that anyone would have projected like 38 steals,
even in the best outcome for Hassan Kim.
But it seems like the Padres kind of had that green light,
and he was obviously part of that.
But there are questions.
He doesn't hit the ball very hard at all.
Does he project more for like 10 to 12 home runs
rather than like close to 20 home runs?
big splits issues with him too that I noticed.
What other questions or anything else that I've mentioned has you worried or not worried
technically, but just things that are on your mind regarding Hassan Kim?
It's kind of the whole package, right?
Because like you said, the 38 stolen bases, I mean, that it's not fair to say it came out of
nowhere because he's a pretty athletic dude.
But like he's 79th percentile in sprint speed.
we're not talking about, you know,
Trey Turner,
who actually stole significantly fewer bases.
So I have concerns about whether the 38 stolen bases are going to come back,
you know,
are the Padres going to,
is the Padre's offense going to necessitate them,
him running that much?
That's a question with,
with Juan Soto gone.
And for me,
I think the other thing would just be the power.
I don't really buy the gains that he made as a power hitter.
It was a lot of damage against left-handed pitchers, like you said.
It was, I think, 10 of his 17, 9 of his, sorry,
eight of his 17 home runs came against left-handed hitters,
obviously in a much smaller sample size than against righties.
The power on the stack-cast side doesn't really back up what he did.
So, yeah, I think I have questions about pretty much every part of the profile for Hasan
Kim in a way that just, I don't.
know if it's worth you know a top 100 top 90 pick from from a guy with you know
this limited of a track record of being good for fans it is pretty a pretty rich
price tag for has on kim 80p since December 1st 81.3 he's going he's kind of like on an
island i guess in terms of second base 80p because he's going 20 picks after matt mclean
but he's going 10 picks ahead of glaber torres so he's kind of just in an area by himself and i i get that if you
trust the skill set. If you think, if you're projecting even like a 1530 season out of him,
then he's probably worth a top 100 pick. But as you mentioned, that power takes a little bit of a
step back. Then I think obviously we do have questions on the overall skill set. And like one thing I was
going to mention on the power real quick was 15 of his 17 home runs did come from the pull side.
So is he kind of doing like his best ESOC parade is impression when he's, you know, trying to tap into
power. I think that's possible, but I would be more likely to project like 12 or 13 home runs
rather than the 17 he just hit. Well, and, you know, I look at a guy who's going, what's that,
sorry, about 25 picks behind Hacian Kim. That's Bryson Stott. Yeah. Who I have questions about him as well,
but 15 homers, 31 steals, 280 batting average last season. Houser and Kim had a little
bit of more of both, you know, two more homers, eight more stolen bases, but I don't necessarily
know if that's enough to justify that kind of gap when you, you know, look at the under the hood
numbers and see that, you know, it's not necessarily a guarantee that Hacian Kim can do that again.
So that is one where, you know, I question the price in a way that makes me think that I'm
probably just not going to draft him. And I typically lean that way as well. Um, just
just in terms of it is pretty rich on Hassan Kim.
We talked about ADP risers and fallers,
and I believe he was one of the fallers.
Yeah, he's dropped a little bit,
because if you look at his overall ADP,
it's like 80-ish.
So he's dropped a couple spots.
He was going a little higher earlier.
Yeah, it's not much, actually.
I just pulled it up.
In October and November, it was 81.6 for Hassan Kim,
and now it's, it was 83 in December.
So, okay, so a couple spots.
Yeah, nothing too drastic there.
But it's still pretty big,
price tag for him. Before we hit our break, just a reminder that FBT is a finalist for the best
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We are going to take a break, and when we return,
some quick news and notes,
and then some more players that we have questions about here on fantasy baseball today.
Welcome back in news and notes.
Not too much going on,
but on yesterday's podcast,
I discussed a report that Robert Suarez is likely to start the season
as the Padres closer,
and then John Heyman reported that the team is nearing a deal
with Korean reliever Wu-Suk-Go,
and that he is likely to be the Padres closer.
Wu-Suck-Go is 23,000.
years old and has recorded
139 career saves in the KBO
to go along with a 318
ERA and a 127 whip.
He does get a lot of whiffs, but also
struggles a bit with control. Four and a half
walks per nine this past
season in the KBO.
My guess Chris is that
WUPSA Go can factor into the back end
of the Padre's bullpen, but
the fact that they have now added
two relievers to go
along with Robert Suarez, I don't know that
there's going to just be a closer.
kind of feels like it's going to be a committee.
Maybe they play matchups.
They also signed Yuki Matsui, who's a lefty.
So I think he could factor in as well.
Kind of feels like it's going to be pretty messy.
Yeah, that's not a situation where I would expect an obvious closer,
at least, you know, projecting out from January.
We might get to spring training and they lean in one specific direction.
But this is, if you're drafting right now, if you're drafting in early February,
it's a hey throw a late round dart at Suarez or Matsui or go and just see you know it's not a situation where I would feel confident projecting any of them to be a closer especially do any of those guys necessarily profile as a guy that you can feel confident will remain a closer the rest of the season that's also part of it is you know the the bullpen is not the strength of the Padres organization right now all right met's prospect Ronnie Maricio is expected to be sidelined six to eight months after our
undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL.
And originally, I just assumed he would miss the entire season.
But now it seems like there's a chance that Ronnie Maricio is back in the second half.
So he is a name that will watch and we'll monitor.
And if he's around for August or September, he's someone that could factor in,
just providing some power and speed.
Yeah.
No, I, I have some questions.
You know, he's someone that like towards the middle part of the summer,
there was a lot of why haven't the Mets called this guy up yet.
And I always worry about that type of player.
And then when you read the scouting reports on him,
it's a situation where the numbers seem a lot better
than the scouting reports suggest.
You know, there's a lot of skepticism about Ronnie Maricio in the scouting community
about whether he's got the hit tool in particular to make the power play up
or if he's kind of had to sell out for power throughout his prospect career
in a way that makes it unlikely to work.
at the major league level.
But yeah, if he's ready by August,
you know, the Mets seem like they'll be in a situation
where he's likely to get an opportunity.
All right.
Everything else, pretty quiet as of now.
We're still waiting on Blake's Nell and Cody Bellinger.
I believe both of them have Scott Boris as their agent,
so we're probably going to be waiting quite a bit.
But let's continue on the other players that we have questions about,
and we are on to third base.
And which brings us to Jake Berger,
who this past season had a breakout year,
hit 250, 34 home runs, 80 RBIs.
The expected numbers actually were really good.
268 expected BA.
506 X-Lug.
He hits the ball extremely hard.
Barrel rate was sixth best in baseball.
His max EV also ranked sixth best in all baseball.
But he kind of changed his profile.
He completely changed his profile once he went to the Marlins,
where in 53 games with them, he hit 303, nine homers,
lowered his strikeout rate from 32% with the White Sox
down to 22% with the Marlins.
So I think trying to project which burger we're going to get,
you know, is it a Big Mac?
Is it a burger?
Sorry, that's a stupid joke.
Trying to figure out which version of him we're going to get,
I think is tough.
But Chris, I do feel that either way,
we are going to get a productive player.
Yeah, it seems like a fairly,
it's hard to call anyone with a, you know,
career 29% strikeout rate a high floor player because that's a high variance approach.
And especially because he doesn't walk much, plays in a bad park, plays in a bad lineup.
There's a lot going against him.
So the biggest question for me is just how much of that improvement in strikeout rate we can actually project moving forward?
Because if he's going to be a legitimate, maybe not 22% strikeout rate like he was after the trade,
but if it's more like 24, 25% without sacrificing much power,
which is what we saw from him in the second half after the trade of the Marlins,
that's a really interesting player because that's where you start to talk about,
okay, I can get 25 to 30 home runs from this guy,
and I can potentially get a useful batting average,
whereas otherwise I think we'd probably be projecting him for like a 240-ish batting average moving forward.
and that's relatively easy to find
or at least relatively easy to replace
at a relatively cheap cost.
So he's someone,
he's our third baseman 15 in AFC ADP
or NFC ADP right now.
Sorry,
I got confused which conference it was.
But like, you know,
he's just ahead of Max Muncie in the overall ADP rankings.
I don't know if it's changed since December 1st,
but, you know, that's one where like,
if that, that, that strike,
out rate and that batting average can be a little more projectable.
You know, if you could project him for a 270 batting average rather than 240-ish,
he starts to look like a really good value there.
Yeah, I like everything about the player.
Again, even if the strikeout gains don't remain, that power is absolutely legit.
It's backed up by all of the stackcast metrics that we have, right?
So, you know, again, even if the strikeout rates go back up, we're talking whatever.
It's 240, but he gives you a, you.
you know, 35 home runs, I think that's fine too.
It's also worth mentioning he was awesome in Lone Depot Park in Miami,
which normally, you know, it's not a good place to hit.
He hit 385 with four homers and a 1033 OPS there in 25 games.
So I like it.
I like the cost since December 1st.
It's 161.6 for Jake Berger.
And he kind of represents the start of a new tier at the position
because the way it breaks down, Josh Young and Spencer Steer,
they go around picks 105, 110.
then there is not another third base eligible player drafted for the next 50 plus picks,
down to 161, where we see Jake Berger,
and then he's going just ahead of Alec Bohm, Noel V. Marte,
who I think is interesting in his own right,
but has some of those same concerns as Encarosio on trend.
Max Muncie going a little bit lower.
Muncie, I think, a little bit more proven in terms of the power.
He's done it for longer, but his batting average floor is terrible.
I mean, we're talking like a sub-200 hitter for Max Muncie.
So I like it.
Overall, I like the cost on Jake Burger.
Mm-hmm.
All right, let's move on to C.J. Abrams, who we have talked a lot about already this off-season,
and I think we're going to continue to talk about because he is just a fascinating player,
very polarizing right now, and especially at the cost, too.
So, CJ Abrams, he did kind of put it together, especially that second half, hit 18 home runs,
47 steals, which were the fifth most in all of baseball.
And after moving to leadoff, his final 73 games, Abrams hit 256, 11 homers, 36 steals.
He lowered his strikeout rate.
He hit the ball harder.
He chased less.
And during that span, I think technically he was on like a 2070 pace.
So his skill set is tantalizing.
He is also terrible against lefties, Chris.
And his ADP since December 1st is 37.4.
So it is a huge price.
Yeah, he had, I think if you just take what C.J. Abrams did last season at face value,
there's not much to question in the underlying stats. Like his expected Wobah and his actual Wobber are
within two points of each other. That does not suggest much flukiness. You know, obviously,
it was a big step forward for a guy who had really struggled in 2020. But the thing you have to
remember about, about C.J. Abrams, I want to get the actual.
numbers right because, yeah, he has played 241 games at the major league level.
He had played 114 games in the minors.
You know, he, there was a bit of prospect fatigue around CJ Abrams, I think, especially
in the fantasy community where a lot of people entering 2022 had kind of just forgotten about
him.
And, you know, it took him really heating up midseason to get back on people's radars.
But there, he's a player who's played very, very little.
professional baseball,
355 games as a professional.
We've been hearing about him for,
what, four or five years now?
And he's been a top 25 prospect for,
you know, four years since 2020.
And so the rapid growth that he had
in the second half of last season,
on the one hand, you can look at it and say,
well, that's just a guy finally getting consistent playing time,
finally getting the reps and finally getting up to speed.
And, you know, you look at the splits just batting out of the leadoff
spot, 749 OPS.
That's not asking a lot.
And like you said, it was about a 20-70 pace.
I don't think you can project anyone for 20 homers and 70 stolen bases.
He was 34 of 36 on stolen bases.
He was, what, 47 for 51?
Overall, that's a 92% success rate or something.
It's about bonkers.
I think you probably regress, you probably expect some regression in the stolen bases.
But the bad is the bigger question.
You know, does he have enough bat to remain at the top of the lineup,
given that it's likely to be a bad lineup that's not really competing for much anyway?
I think you probably just assume he'll stay up there.
But the splits are really scary.
512 OPS against lefties, 40 strikeouts, eight walks, and 169 played appearances.
If it's more like a 45 stolen base player, that's still plenty valuable.
But it's less valuable now.
than it was three years ago.
And if it's eight home runs
and a 240 batting average,
you're taking a big hit
pretty much everywhere else for that.
So that kind of price for a guy
like C.J. Abrams, I get it.
And, you know, if he can
prove that what he did last year
was not a fluke, he doesn't even need
to do the second half stuff. If he just does
what he did, he's going to come pretty close.
But it's just
it's a lot for a guy with a lot
of red flags. I did
to point out, the steamer projections have them for 17 home runs, 35 steals, and a 261
batting average. So they are baking in a progression here for someone who was a top prospect.
And if you look at his scouting grades, I mean, a 70 hit tool upside, according to Fangraph.
So there is that chance that, excuse me, Abrams continues to get better.
The batting average improves. But the way that he's kind of set up right now and what he showed us,
it is a weird batted ball profile. There are a lot of infield flyers.
balls. He raised the launch angle last year. He hits a decent amount of fly balls so that he can get to that near 20 home run power. But I'm not sure that I would expect that batting average growth. It is possible again. Yeah. But you know, it might be a guy who has to choose. Right. Like, and, and the problem is, it might be choosing between hitting 260 and hitting 240 or hitting eight home runs and hitting 16 home runs. And it might be like, there's not that much upside no matter which way he does in those. In those.
two categories. And so there's going to be a lot of weight on him remaining an elite stolen
base guy. And he absolutely could. He's super athletic, although not necessarily, you know,
99th percentile sprint speed. Again, we're talking at 81st percent out here. So a lot of
ways for things to go wrong at a third round price. And not that many ways for it to go right.
I feel like the 80 piece, but go ahead. It's a big win. You know, that, that's the,
that's one of the concepts that I've been trying to think about a lot with fantasy football and fantasy
baseball is just like there are guys who have a lot of risk and if they hit yeah who cares right they're
they're they're you know zander bogarts is probably that kind of guy where like if things go
right for zander bogarts he's probably not a second round pick anyway if things go right for
cj abrams you know he might be a top 12 player and so that's where it's like I can definitely
it being worth the cost. It's just
a little hard to justify.
The ADP since December 1st
for C.J. Abrams is 37.4.
He's going just after Gunner Henderson
just ahead
of Bo Bichette, which
might sound crazy to some, but
Boba Chet doesn't run anymore.
What kind of power
are we projecting moving forward? So
I think that's probably
the right range in a roto or a categories league.
And something else we talked about with Abrams,
he's the perfect player to pair with,
if you have in a 12-team league,
at the end of the first round,
you draft two of Aaron Judge
or Juan Soto,
Yorna Alvarez,
Corey Seeger, whatever it might be,
because those guys are not going to give you many steals.
And then you come back around
and you pair Abrams with like one or two of those hitters.
I think that makes a lot of sense
and then maybe you pick up some pitching after that.
And obviously in a points league,
I think Abrams will drop down a little bit
because steals are not as valuable
and the plate discipline is not great.
Let's move on to the outfield, and Nolan Jones just had a great season, a breakout season with the Rockies.
He's hit 297 with 20 homers, 20 steals, a 931 OPS in just 106 games.
He was one of 19 players to go 2020.
And if you project that, not project, if you pro-rate that over 150 games, 28 homers, 28 steals for Nolan Jones, who did some great things here, Chris.
He showed off that great eye that we saw in the minors.
He still did strike out quite a bit, but he hit the ball hard.
He was very good against lefties.
He was good on the road, which was surprising to me as well.
He did have a bad July.
And then he bounced back too.
I like young players that kind of face adversity.
And then they bounced back.
And we saw that from Nolan Jones.
The ADP since December 1st, 57 as the 15th outfielder off the board.
What are your thoughts on Nolan Jones?
So there are a couple places to start, right?
One is just he's probably not a 300 hitter.
You know, like that, that's just he had a 401 Babbup, even playing half your games at
course field.
You can't expect a 400 Babbitt.
Todd Hilton didn't put up 400 Babbits.
Larry Walker wasn't doing that consistently.
Probably.
I'm going off the top of my head.
Maybe they did.
Either way, those are two guys who are going to be in the Hall of Fame.
Nolan Jones, likely, go out on the limb, likely not going to be a Hall of Fame.
So you probably can't expect that kind of production.
And you look at the expected batting average, 249.
Now, playing half your games, of course, field,
you can definitely expect better than the expected stats.
That's just the way that's going to work.
But there's going to be some regression with the batting average,
especially when you're talking about a guy who struck out 30% of the time.
So you start there.
He's not going to replicate that.
Is he likely to replicate 28 stolen bases?
or the 28 stolen base pace,
it's possible, but again, it's not likely.
He stole 19 bases in 193 games at AAA.
It's just probably not going to be a 30-30 guy,
maybe a 30-15 guy.
That might be possible.
So you have to account for some level of regression,
but this price might already be accounting for that level of regression, right?
Like if he hits 250 with 25 homers and 15 stolen bases,
okay, he's probably not going to be the number 15 outfielder.
He's probably not going to be worth a sixth round pick.
But you're probably not too upset about that outcome.
And it's entirely possible.
He gets 280.
So this is one that I haven't given it quite enough thought yet.
Like you said earlier,
we're still in the process of doing our rankings.
I'm early in the process of doing our rankings.
Those will be up on CBSSports.com in a couple of weeks.
He gives me indigestion when I think about him.
because this is one of those big hit, big miss guys.
The thing about it, though, is because of course,
field the miss might not be that big.
You know, there's still,
this was what I was talking about when Nolan Jones got called up.
And, you know, he was a former top prospect who the Indians,
or the guardians just kind of gave up on.
You know, they just kind of got tired of trying to wait for him.
And I think it's a situation where because of where he landed,
there might just be a high enough floor
that it's worth whatever kind of risk that price entails.
And the Guardians have kind of had this issue for a while now
where they're giving up on hitters too early
and they're going at different places and they're working out.
You know, Nolan Jones, I know they,
I believe they traded away Junior Camerro to Tampa Bay
in the Yandy Diaz trade back in the day, whatever.
So they have had some issues the Guardians have,
but Nolan Jones, I think there's a lot to like.
I love the fact that as a lefty, he hit lefties well.
There are like the plate discipline for sure.
The zone contact is not good.
The strikeouts I think are going to be there for sure.
But steamer projects for a 348 Babbip and a 265 batting average.
I think that's very fair.
And I think given his quality of contact in that ballpark,
25 to 30 home runs, 20 steals.
He's 78th percentile in sprint speed.
He is a fun player.
Scott has kind of talked me into it too because Scott is big on Nolan Jones.
He is a huge fan.
But I'll save that for when you guys are back around together on the podcast.
Yeah, lots of like with Nolan Jones.
The ADP since December 1st, 57, the 15th outfielder off the board,
going two picks after Cody Bellinger, still a free agent.
16 picks ahead of Mike Trout.
Does that surprise you, Chris?
The fact that Mike Trout is down at like 73 and ADP early on?
I think it's a testament to Mike Trout's greatness that it took this long for him to fall this far.
Yeah.
Because you look at John Carlo Stanton back in 2017, and he was below.
this way. I think that was the year he won the MVP, right? He had fallen like into the 100 range
because of injuries. And so the fact that we were still giving Mike Trout, you know, first or second
round value despite all the time he'd missed. I mean, look, I'm going to draft Mike Trout when he's
in the 70s. I'm probably going to do that. But yeah, it makes sense. Yeah, 2017, indeed,
the MVP season there for John Carlos Staten. Let's take our final break when we were
turn the pitchers. We have one, two, three, four pitchers that we have questions about,
although I'm sure we could have come up with a lot more. We'll do that right after this.
Welcome back in and let's talk about the four pitchers that Chris has questions about.
And we will start with Tyler Glassnow, who is now a member of the Dodgers coming off a season with
a 353 ERA, a 108 whip and a career high 120 innings pitched in the regular season. Now, if you
combine some of his minor league seasons. He has thrown more than that. But if we're just looking at
what he's done in the majors, he has not thrown more than 120 innings. Now, we know when Glass Now is
on the mound, he is awesome. Among starting pitchers with 120 innings pitched this past season,
he was second in K per nine, he was second in K minus walk rate, he was second in swinging strike rate,
and he had the seventh best stuff plus at 121. Obviously now on the Dodgers, great run support.
I guess defense might be a little bit shaky,
but he gets so many strikeouts.
Chris, this comes down to like,
how many starts are you projecting?
Like, how much are we going to get out of glass now?
If he gives you 150,
10060, he's probably going to be worth being drafted
as like the 10th starting pitcher off the board.
Yeah, in an era where very few pitchers throw 200.
I guess he could be worth being the ton.
But that's asking something that he's never done
at the major league level.
Like you said, there were times, what was his career high?
I think his career high is only like 130-ish, even with, I don't, 155, sorry, in 2017.
There are 150 innings as long ago as John Carlos Stanton was an MVP caliber player or was winning MVP anyway.
So I, there's no way I'm going to be able to draft him at this price.
I get all the cases for him.
I get how good he is.
It's still number 10 starting pitcher for a guy who hasn't thrown 150 innings at any level since 2017
and whose career high in the majors is 120.
I just, there's no way I'm going to be able to do it.
I get the upside.
I get playing to win and not playing to not lose and all that stuff, perhaps fitting.
that an ambulance goes by
as we're talking about Tyler Glass now.
I just, there's no way I can justify it.
There's just,
he excels at strikeouts
while strikeouts are relatively easy to find.
He's actually been a guy
who has pitched to a higher ERA
than you would expect
320 over the course of his
Tampa Bay Ray's career,
which is when they figured out
how to make him good.
320 ERA is awesome.
There's nothing wrong with that,
but it's not, we're not talking about Jacob deGrom here.
And obviously Jacob deGrom last year was going a little higher than this.
He was more like a top 20 pick.
This is in the 40s.
I just can't do it with Tyler Glass now.
Give me,
give me Pablo Lopez,
who has his own history of injuries,
but has put together full seasons before.
It's not even put together a full season last year.
Tyler Glass has just never done it.
And I just,
I can't ask someone to do something they've never done when they're 30.
You know, it'd be, it'd be different if we were talking about Yuri Perez, you know,
who probably doesn't have that much, that kind of upside.
But, you know, also, I think you could maybe project them for the same number of
innings this season.
I agree with you on Pablo Lopez ahead of Glass now.
Pablo Lopez, 180 plus innings two years in a row.
He made some massive changes to his arsenal.
and, you know, he was top five in strikeouts this past season.
So I agree with that one.
But I kind of like it.
I got to say, like, Glassnell, look.
When you look at the rest of the guys being drafted in his range,
or I guess after him, it's kind of ugly.
You know, like Aaron Nola, no workload concerns.
He might put up a 4-6 ERA.
Doesn't that feel like a good combination, though?
Like putting Glass Now with Nola?
like a workhorse or even a Logan Webb with Glassnauer?
Sure, I think that's pretty reasonable.
Logan Webb, I mean, he's three rounds later.
So I think that makes a lot of sense.
But yeah, I get it relative, like the next three starting pitchers being drafted are
Aaron Nola, Terrick Scuble, Freddie Peralta, Framber Valdez, Blake Snow.
I mean, I guess in that context, Tyler Glassnell's price isn't horrible.
There's definitely sticker shock.
and we're going to talk about two of those five guys right now.
Yeah.
Scoobel,
I do think you have to be cognizant of the rotation you build around him.
Like I just mentioned,
you know,
pairing him with an Aeronola or a George Kirby or Logan Webb.
And then later on,
you probably have to get another innings eater type,
like a Merrill Kelly or Jordan Montgomery,
something like that,
just to kind of supplement him
in case things do go wrong.
I listened to an interview with Tyler Glass now
where he said,
he was only going to throw around 20 to 22 starts last season
no matter what. Like even without the oblique injury,
I also kind of like the fact that it wasn't an arm injury, it was an oblique.
Not that I like any injuries, but it does surprise me a little bit, Chris,
because you have been very injury agnostic in the past.
But less so about starting pitchers.
Okay.
Especially when, you know, you're talking about like repeat.
We were talking about like a decade now of Tyler Glass.
I mean, not a full decade, but seven years since Tyler Glass.
now through 150 innings.
And pitching is a really difficult thing to do.
It's really hard to throw 100 miles an hour, you know, 50 times a day or every five days and stay healthy.
And Tyler Glass not just hasn't shown that he can do that.
And so I think it's safe to assume that he cannot.
Look, I think it's probably safe to assume that Mike Trout is unlikely to play 150 games this season.
I don't know if cannot do is the right word for either of them because I don't want to foreclose
the possibilities. There are wide ranges of probabilities for all players.
Tyler Glass now is probably among pitchers being drafted, I don't know, in the top 100,
maybe top 150, the least likely to throw 130 innings.
You, I have to scroll through, but if he's not the least likely, he's not counting relief
pitchers. He is one of them for sure. Let's move on to another pitcher you already mentioned.
Terrick Scuba, who is 27 years old.
And he only made 15 starts in 2023 as he was returning from flexor tendon surgery.
But he was amazing in those starts.
A 280 ERA, a 0.90 whip, well over a strikeout per inning.
If you look at among starting pitchers with 80 innings pitched last year,
Scoobel, it feels weird saying last year, we're only like three days into 2024.
But Scoobel ranked fifth in ERA, first in FIP, first in XFIP, first in Sierra,
sixth in K per nine, second in K minus walk rate,
sixth in swinging Shrike crate,
how many innings are we going to get?
I mean, it's not the same question as Tyler Glassdown,
but we haven't seen Scoobel throw more than 149 and a third
in the majors.
But for whatever reason, Steamer is projecting for 171 innings
and projecting Scoobel to be the fourth best starting pitcher
in all of fantasy.
So, Steamer is in, the projections are in.
Chris, where are you?
I think I'm more in on him than I am on.
Tyler Glass now because at least based on what Terrick Scouble showed last season,
there's not that big of a talent gap difference.
Now, the difference there is Tyler Glass now has looked like this guy since he got to the raise,
what, five seasons ago.
And Terrick Scuble, there was a gigantic jump in how he pitched in 2023.
It started, you know, with his brief minor league rehab appearance where we were noting that
The velocity was way up.
That sustained itself into the MLB's part of the schedule.
And yeah, I mean, it might be a situation where the ceiling is 170 innings for Terrick Scouble.
But he had been pretty healthy before 2022 when he had the flexor strain.
He made 24 starts in 2019.
He made eight starts in 2020.
That was the shortened season, but he was pretty much a part of their rotation.
throughout. He made
29 starts, 31
appearances in 2021.
And then things kind of fell apart for him in
2022 when he had the elbow injury.
So it's not the same
kind of super lengthy
injury track record with Terrick Scoob.
I'm sure there were some issues
throughout there. But even in 2018,
you know, he made 19 appearances
in college, then pitched as
a pro and made nine appearances.
So I have to assume he was healthy
there. I haven't looked into it. But
I feel okay about the innings that we're going to get from Terrick Scoob.
It's just a question of how real was the jump that he made last season.
It wasn't just the fastball velocity, although that was a huge part of it because his fastball
had been not great before that.
And all of a sudden he was getting whiffs with it.
He was getting much better results.
It was also the change up, which went from a very good pitch that he threw around 15% of the time to a really, really elite pitch that he threw
25% of the time last season.
51% whiff rate.
195 expected Wobha allowed with the change of.
It was one of the best pitches in baseball.
Can he keep doing that and get those kind of,
that kind of success over a full season?
I think those are all fair questions,
but the talent level looks really high.
And I think there are fewer injury concerns here than there are with glass now.
Something else interesting about Terrick Scouble is if you just kind of pair
his 2022 and 2023 seasons. You get 36 starts of a 323 ERA, a 105 whip, 10K per 9,
really good ground ball rate, 13% swinging strike rate. It's not the Uber elite pitcher that we
saw towards the back half of this past season. But again, if you just kind of make that sample
size a little bit larger, he's still a really, really good pitcher over the past two years,
Terik Scoble is. One other question I do have about him, Chris, do you think he has enough of a third
pitch to kind of sustain that elite level production. I agree with you. The fastball throws it extremely
hard. The changeup is elite. Maybe the best change up in all baseball. But is the slider good enough,
right? He had a 448 slug against it, only 11% swinging strike rate. Doesn't matter. Maybe his fastball
and changeup are just so good. It doesn't really matter. What do you think about the third pitch?
I think the fact that he's a lefty and has a really good changeup helps because that can help him,
potentially avoid some of the platoon issues that are an issue for some lefties.
And I think the slider is probably good enough.
It's not a huge swing and miss pitch.
And that's not necessarily surprising because, you know, he is a lefty and he's throwing it
mostly to right-handed batters.
And it's just not going to be as effective to the opposite hand.
So I think that's a, it's reasonable to say that that's not like a huge weapon.
but the slider, you know, over the years, even going back to 2022 and even back to 2021,
was getting good results on balls and play.
And so even if it's not the swing and miss weapon, even if he has to rely on the fastball and change up,
adds his putaway pitches more than most pitchers would.
The fact that he can get soft contact with the slider, I think that's a positive.
It's not as limited a repertoire as you might think just looking at the whiff rate.
You know, it's a, it's a useful pitch, if not a true weapon.
Scuba's ADP since December 1st is 53.4 as the SP12 off the board,
which again might surprise some people.
Three picks behind Aeronola, five picks ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
I mean, just take that name he's going ahead of Yamamoto, right?
I mean, we have questions there too.
And, I mean, at least we saw Scubel do it in the second half of the season at the major league level.
So, and this isn't Tanaki Yamamoto.
I like him to.
Imagine what kind of contract Terrick Scouble would get in free agency.
Right.
I like what the Tigers are doing.
I get that it's a big price tag, but I'm in.
I'm in on.
Yeah, I think it's reasonable.
Yeah.
I like both him and Glass now.
Again, it's, if I draft either one, I think I might draft a higher floor SP2 or, I mean,
if there's some way you could pull off where you get a starting pitcher ahead of those guys,
like a Wheeler in round two or whatever, Luis Castillo, Gosman, and then you come back around.
and take another one of these pitchers,
but if you do that,
you're also investing a lot in pitching early on.
So keep that in mind.
Let's move on to Blake Snell,
who is currently a free agent
and coming off his second Siong Award,
this time in the National League,
a 225 ERA, a 119 whip,
234 strikeouts,
the third most strikeouts in all of baseball,
and just some fun Siyang stats.
I got these per MLB.com.
Snell became the first AL slash NL pitcher
since 1913,
when earned runs became official in both leagues
to lead the majors in both ERA and walks.
He also became the first pitcher since early win in 1959
to lead the majors and walks while winning the award.
So just hearing those stats,
it just kind of starts the questions and gets the wheels turning.
Like, all right, what do we do with Blake Snell?
We still have to find out where he's going to wind up.
The ADP since December 1st is 64.2
as the 16th starting pitcher off the board.
Also the seventh player to win a Sayyung in both leagues.
I think all the other ones are in the Hall of Fame, except for Max Scherzer, who almost certainly will be one day.
I don't think Blake Snell is going to make the Hall of Fame.
And look, this is one that I just, you don't want to buy Blake Snell when the price is high.
And you don't want to sell Blake Snell when the price is low.
And right now, the price is high because he's coming off one of those seasons,
I don't want to say there were not any downs along with the ups,
but there were certainly fewer than we are used to.
I mean,
Blake Snell is a guy over the past couple of years.
We've had to talk people out of dropping.
We had to do it last year.
Last year,
when you won the Sight young.
In like May,
people were trying to drop him.
And so that is not to say that Blake Snell is not a good pitcher.
He's clearly a very good pitcher.
We're talking about a guy with 1,000 major league innings and a 320 year.
it's just he's never as good as he looks when he's at his best and he's never as bad as he looks when
he's at his worst and the problem with Blake Snow is figuring out when he is going to be at his
best and when he is going to be at his worst is impossible. There are really, there are a few like
pitch mix things that have led to some success consistently for him. But I just, I don't believe
that any of us are good enough at predicting what's going to happen in the future
to predict when you can and cannot buy Blake Snow.
I think you either, if you buy him, you've got to ride the ride.
And the problem is right now you're buying him at a top 70 pick.
And I just, I can't justify that.
I will just buy Blake Snow when he has a bad month and the person who has him on his team
gets frustrated with him and tries to sell him.
There's just, there is no way I'm going to be able to buy.
Blake's now at this price.
Yeah, look, it seems obvious that you should expect regression.
We're talking about a 225 ERA for someone that walks nearly five batters per nine innings.
But there were just other obvious things too, right?
A 256 Babbitt is very low for him.
It's 288 for his career.
He had an 87% strand rate for his career.
It's been 78%.
So he pitched really, really well with runners on base.
Is that something that's going to remain?
Probably not.
I mean, if you're looking at him to regress, what would you?
you expect, I don't know, maybe a mid-3s ERA, but as you've said, if you go year by year,
there's not really a lot of in-between. It's either it's, you know, really, really awesome Blake
Snell who wins Tsayung or someone who's very erratic and he's dealing with injuries,
and there's not really that in-between. So I think I'm probably going to be lower on him
than the ADP as well. I think Scott has him at like SP-11 or 12, something like that.
Scott's theme this year, Chris, is just like really focusing on strikeouts
and trying to get as many pitchers with amazing strikeout rates as possible.
And obviously, Blake Snell fits that mold.
But I do think there are lots of questions.
The 16th starting pitcher off the board, as I mentioned, since December 1st.
Let's wrap up with Hunter Green, who is someone we've talked a lot about over the past couple of years.
Even last year, Chris, I think you had him as both a breakout and a bust,
which might confuse some people.
But there's obvious reasons.
right? The stuff is tantalizing. The strikeout rate is amazing, but the things that go wrong for Hunter Green go really wrong. We're talking about bad control, fly ballpillar, gives up hard contact in the worst ballpark in baseball to do those things in. So maybe one of these years, he kind of figures it out, and it's like a mid to high three ZRA, and he stays healthy and gives you 250 strikeouts or something like that. But to me, even as the 37th starting pitcher off the board,
I think the downside is still too low until I've seen Hunter Green do it.
Yeah, I think that price probably makes sense.
You know, 130-ish overall, 37th starting pitcher, you said, 37th?
Yeah.
I think that's probably pretty reasonable for a guy who,
if he stays healthy and remind me what his injury was last year.
It was, went on the 60-day aisle with a hip injury.
A hip injury and then the shoulder the previous year at the end of the season.
Yeah. Yep. That like that doesn't suggest too much concern from a health perspective.
A hip, like it obviously could become a degenerative issue and prop up over and over again.
But as far as staying healthy, I don't have that many more concerns about Hunter Green than most young pitchers who throw 98 miles an hour.
Obviously pretty high risk of injury just within that cohort, of course.
But for me, it's more the production.
And I think he might be a guy that you just have to live with higher ERAs in particular than you might otherwise hope for.
I think the whip will probably also be in the one two, one three range rather than the one four range it was last year.
But I do think he could be someone who is also just a few tweaks away from really figuring things out.
And so, you know, at this price, I feel like he leans more.
more toward the breakout side than the bus side where, yeah, things can go wrong.
He's going to give up a ton of home runs.
That's just going to be a part of his game.
He's so fastball reliant.
The fastball is a fly ball pitch for him.
And it gets hit hard when it gets hit.
He gets a lot of whiffs with it.
Probably needs to get more whiffs than he did last season, 25% whiff rate with the fastball.
You probably prefer him to live more in that elite 28 to 30% range.
but I just
I do feel like there are
tangible paths to improvement
for Hunter Green
that make him worth paying up for
at the price
because you know you're going to get
elite strikeouts from him
you know you're going to get
at least stretches from him
where he looks like an absolute ace
and if he can just avoid
more of those worst case scenario outings
I think he's someone who has a lot going for him
and it's also a situation where
if he can develop that change up a little more
and become a little less predictable
with his pitch mix, that should also help as well.
And as somebody who, again,
I'm a little bit more worried about Hunter Green and the floor,
you don't have to look too hard
to see like a Dylan C's 2020 season out of him, right?
Where things just kind of break right
and he has this massive strikeout season.
That's definitely within the range of outcomes for Hunter Green.
and the price tag is interesting.
SP 37 since December 1st, 139.5,
and he's going right after Chris Bassett
just ahead of names like Jordan Montgomery,
Michael King, Merrill Kelly, Gavin Williams.
There's a lot of just like high floor options, I think, in there.
Michael King is interesting, but we haven't seen him be a starter
over a full season yet.
Gavin Williams comes with the prospect pedigree,
so it's an interesting range of some high floor pitchers
and some kind of upside.
ID names in there as well. Yeah, that is probably a range of pitchers that I'm going to be drafting in pretty regularly. And, you know, I think it obviously depends on what you did earlier on, right? If you were the person who took Tyler Glasnauer or Terrick Scouble, it may not make a lot of sense to grab the high variance playing Hunter Green. But if you opted for Pablo Lopez or Aaron Nola in that stretch, you know, then it might make a little more sense to chase that strikeout upside to chase, you know, what.
could potentially be, you know, I don't know if there's ever going to be a sub three ERA from
Hunter Green, but, you know, mid-3s ERA, hopefully decent ish whip, but just a ton of strikeouts.
I mean, we're talking about a guy who 250 strikeouts is not an unrealistic ceiling for him.
So, you know, it probably depends on how you're putting your staff together, but I don't dislike
Hunter Green's price.
All right.
There it is.
We're going to wrap there.
Chris is back and he is on the baseball side.
Full time, let's go.
For Chris, I am Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.
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And we'll be back again next week with Scott White.
Bye-bye.
