Fantasy Baseball Today - 10/04 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Offseason Podcasts Begin!

Episode Date: October 4, 2017

The Fantasy Baseball season may be over, but we'll be here once a week to keep you informed and entertained until next season begins. Today we discuss the Top 5 finishers at Catcher, First Base and Se...cond Base. Gary Sanchez is the new Buster Posey. Anthony Rizzo is oddly consistent and Jonathan Schoop had his breakout campaign ... How we're evaluating Luke Weaver, Jake Junis, Blake Snell and some other young players, plus you'll never guess who the #1 Catcher was in September ... Some playoff thoughts including Terry Francona's interesting decision, and we look back at our preseason MLB picks and bold predictions ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Season podcast. We don't stop here on fantasy baseball today. What's up everybody? Scott had a baby. Or more correctly, Scott's wife had a baby. So it's me and Chris. Yeah, let's give credit where credits do. Scott, Scott did very little.
Starting point is 00:00:30 Scott did nothing. Pretty much. Scott was useless. But congratulations to Scott and his beautiful wife and his beautiful family. Two baby boys. Well, two boys. And we're going to miss them for the next, I don't know, A few weeks until he's back?
Starting point is 00:00:44 I believe it's six weeks. I believe he will be back in November. Six weeks. Who gets six weeks? You do if you have a baby. Geez. I would like to have like four in a row. I don't think that's how it works.
Starting point is 00:00:59 What if I had quadruple? What if my wife did not pregnant? But what if she had quadruplets? Would I get 24 weeks off? You know, I don't know. But I would guess not. Chris, talk to management here. That doesn't seem fair.
Starting point is 00:01:12 It's four times to work. I'll see what I can do. All right. My voice is fading because I went to some playoff baseball last night. I had a good time. It was awesome. We'll talk about that game in a little bit. So you were one of the over-excited Yankees fans who couldn't tell when a ball was hit 100 feet or 400 feet?
Starting point is 00:01:30 So that's what Heath said on the podcast this morning. And since he's on the football podcast, since he said it, I figured, you know, you're probably going to say it too. We haven't talked about this. We came to different conclusions. I didn't notice it, actually. But I will say this. I was sitting in the outfield basically on the left field line, slightly in foul territory. So kind of far away, but like 200 levels, not 400s or anything.
Starting point is 00:01:55 I enjoyed the seats. They were good. I couldn't see left field. I don't know if I said I was in right field or left field. I was in left field. Yeah. I couldn't see like the wall in left field. So like Joe Maurer had that fly out with two on and two out and he was a tie run.
Starting point is 00:02:10 I couldn't see that at all. Yeah, I went to, in the 2003 World Series, I went to game four, the one where Alex Gonzalez hits the walk-off home run. And I'm sitting, you remember Dolphin Stadium at that point, I think it was pro player probably? Sure. Still 2003? Why not? And I'm sitting in dead center field, so probably like 600 feet away from home plate. And that's the game where, like, Miguel Cabrera hits the home run off Roger Clemens and what we thought was Roger Clemens' last game. Alex Gonzalez hits the walk-off home run for Marlins, I saw neither of those balls go out because of the way the angles at the old stadium were.
Starting point is 00:02:49 You know, nobody ever sat in the upper deck, but when you did for baseball, you couldn't see the outfield. Right. I pretty much could not see right field. I mean, I could see most of the outfield. I just couldn't see the wall and like the war. I couldn't see the warning track in a lot of left field. But what I was going to say was there was a ball.
Starting point is 00:03:06 Aaron Judge was up and he swung and he hit a ball. And off the bat, it looked like it was coming. like right at me. I was like, oh my God, he might have just crushed this ball. He fouled it back to the screen. But for not even half a second, for a quarter of a second, I was like, and then I realized, oh, wait, no, not even close to. Yeah, there was, well, they went down three nothing in the first inning of that game. We'll just, we'll just give the play-by-play for this whole game. Right. No, and that one, I think, runner on first judge, they're down three-nothing. The crowd is super anxious. I guess it's been a long time since you guys have had anything to root for.
Starting point is 00:03:44 And he hits, like, I look down at my phone for a second, and I hear the crowd go absolutely insane. Like, I thought, I looked down and I hear the crowd, and I thought judge must have hit, like, a 580-foot home run to Dead Center. It was like a bleeding eye single. No, it was a line drive. It was a solid line drive single. It was a kind of, it was a jam shot. It was not a well-struck. I don't think so. I think it was a solid line-drive. Either way, it moved the runner to third. In a game, they were down by three in the first inning. I thought he hit like the 70th third home run of the season.
Starting point is 00:04:19 Give them some credit, okay? The crowd was amped. And the reaction... I know you guys were like a early 2010's Oklahoma City Thunder crowd who had like never seen a baseball game before. You know, it was adorable. Look, the Yankees were in the wild card two years ago. They lost the Astros.
Starting point is 00:04:35 I was at that game too. And it was also fun, but there was nothing to cheer about because Dallas Keikles shut them down. This was, I mean, this, they really love this team. Like, it is fun. It's a fun team. It's a lot of home girl players. And it's, uh...
Starting point is 00:04:48 By the way, that was a, that ball was hit 73 miles per hour. Yeah, he crushed that. You couldn't hit a ball 73 miles per hour. But then the next debate was, oh no, the next debate was Sanchez. Then the D-D home run, I've been saying... Oh, yeah, that was fun. No, it was a fun game. It was panamomous.
Starting point is 00:05:03 No, all right. Yeah, you make fun of me all you want. We had a great time. And, uh, did it? Look, none of us saw. the Yankees making the playoffs. What we're going to do today is basically talk about that yesterday's game for an hour. But after we do that, no, we're done.
Starting point is 00:05:19 We're going to look back at our bold predictions and our MLB preseason picks and see how we did. We're going to read an email about a bad, bad fantasy baseball beat. Look at the top five finishers at catcher, first base, and second base, some news and notes, some late season things that caught my eye and your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBS. sI.com. First, a thank you. Everybody for listening this whole season.
Starting point is 00:05:46 We're getting my favorite emails. The thank you for helping me win my league emails. Those are always fun. And they're coming in and yeah, I've been responding to some of them. If I don't respond to you, I'm very sorry. We're getting a lot.
Starting point is 00:05:59 But we very much appreciate it. And it's been a great year. Every year something changes, not every year, but a lot of years something changes on the podcast. First, it was Eric Mack a while ago. He left. And then Nando left.
Starting point is 00:06:13 And then Al left. And every year, I'm, like, kind of worried. Like, oh, man, we lost such a key component of the show. How are we going to do it? And every year, you guys, the listeners involved with you, Chris, and Scott and he, you all step up. We had our best year ever. I was so proud. I thought we were going to get a, uh, I thought you were going to go a different route with that.
Starting point is 00:06:35 like the fresh prince of Bel Air, very dramatic scene. Man, Al wasn't there for me in 2017, and I don't need him anyway. How can you don't want me, man? I know exactly what you're talking about, too.
Starting point is 00:06:51 Oh, that's great. Yeah, it is. But anyway, I was really proud of the job you guys did, and thank you. And I'm always proud of our listeners for being a part of the show. So actually, I was going to do bold predictions off the bat, but I think since we've rambled on for seven minutes without talking any fantasy,
Starting point is 00:07:10 let's talk some fantasy. And here are, Chris, the top five catchers in points leagues for 2017. Yeah, that's what it was, right? 2017? Right? Yeah. Okay. Top five catchers.
Starting point is 00:07:24 Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey, J.T. Ray Amuto, Yadier Malina, and Salvador Perez. Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey, J.T. Rayamuto, Yadier Molina, and Salvador Perez. And quick note, all five of these guys led the position in at bats. They were also top five in at bats. And Gary Sanchez and Salvador Perez both missed significant time with injury and they finished top five. All right, what's your quick reaction to this list, Chris? Gary Sanchez, I think, is the number one catcher going into next season. just the age difference between him and Buster Posey,
Starting point is 00:08:04 the fact that Posey is on a slight decline, I think. We're starting to see the end of his peak, and I think that started last season. Yadie and Alina being top five is just ridiculous. I mean, there's something to be said for showing up every day, but he had a pretty good season, the 18 home runs, the 82 RBI. I just don't know if that's necessarily sustainable. sustainable for him. The other four guys, I think, are all probably top five or six catchers going in the next season.
Starting point is 00:08:36 I mean, I think Gary Sanchez is the new Buster Posey. He's going to dominate the position for years to come. And I think he's a second round pick. I mean, he wasn't quite... At worst, he's a third round pick. Yeah, he wasn't quite as good in 2017 as his brief rookie stint. But, you know, coming out there with 33 homers, 90 RBI, and an 876 OPS in 122 games, that's pretty much impossible to beat at the catcher position, especially with Buster Posey. And he missed on the Bicline.
Starting point is 00:09:09 So, yeah, I think he's clearly the number one guy. Yeah, and he had the injury as well. So he's clearly the number one. It's not that he's clearly the number one guy. He'll be number one for everyone. But how early will he go? I guess we can decide that. But Wilson Contreras might have been sixth.
Starting point is 00:09:26 Will he be in your top five? next year. Will he be number two or three? I think he probably has to be in the top five, yeah. You know, the injury was, what, a hamstring for him that ended his, or basically ended his fantasy season, but you look at what he did. It's not quite Gary Sanchez, mostly because the power's not there, but I'm not sure. I can't put him over Posey, I think, but I think he will be number three. What was that? That was an auto play.
Starting point is 00:10:00 Regular season. Regular season. I'm cutting that out. But the postseason podcast, that stays in. Leave it in. That stays in. That was great. All right.
Starting point is 00:10:10 Top five first baseman in rotisserie leagues this year. Paul Goldschmidt, who is 30 years old. So you still got some. prime years left. Paul Goldschman, and he had a great year as the number one first baseman at Rodo, and that was playing through an elbow injury for a lot of September, and he slumped in September. He had 175, Paul Goldschman, in September. His slash line heading into the final month of the year, 319, 428 on base, 607 slugging, so an OPS over 1,000. So he was one. Votto was two. Actually, first base was crazy. I could have predicted a lot of the top five catch.
Starting point is 00:10:54 church. But first base, I don't think I would have gotten it. Goldschmidt, Vado, Jose Obrayu, who batted 304 with 33 homers. Jose Abrae. Ryan Zimmerman for Anthony Rizzo, the most predictable player in baseball, four straight years for Rizzo with 31 or 32 home runs, two straight with 32 homers and 109 RBIs. Exactly the same numbers. Are we sure? Jose Abraeu isn't the most predictable, though? Well, I mean, he did a lot better this year than he did in either of the past two seasons. Had a little bit of a power drop in 2016, hit 25 homers, but, you know, he's been, with the exception of runs being very low in 2016, he's been the same guy.
Starting point is 00:11:41 And it's, you know, I think he deserves more credit than he gets probably. Yeah, apparently. But, you know, going into the season, I could see why people were down on him because he didn't have the power that really. measured up with the elite first baseman, but he got it back. I mean, it was the heaviest home run hitting season ever, but credit of Bray. I don't know how he hits 304 every year with such terrible plate discipline, but he hits 300. He hits right around 300 every year.
Starting point is 00:12:07 Very solid. He doesn't strike out that much. Yeah, I always kind of overlook that. Yeah, I mean, he doesn't walk much, but if you're talking about batting average, you know, the fact that he hits for power, hits the ball hard, and doesn't strike out much, he's going to be a consistent 290 plus guy, I think. Now, Freddie Freeman will definitely go ahead of a brayu next year. Do you think Edwin and Carnaccio and will?
Starting point is 00:12:32 You know, on CBSSports.com, you can actually get a sneak preview of the 2018 season by, I put up a piece yesterday that has all of Scott and Heath's 2018 positional rankings. And so I'll cheat, and I'll go ahead and note that both of them have Freddie Freeman, or sorry, You were asking Edwin and Cornuccion versus Jose Abraight. Both of them have an incarnation above Jose Abraint. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, go ahead. I'm not so sure.
Starting point is 00:13:02 I think that's one that could go either way. And Edwin and Carnacion next season might be someone that I just avoid. If the cost is going to be maybe a late second round pick or an early third rounder, I might try to avoid the 35-year-old who's had bouts of inconsistency. over the last couple of season. Yeah, I mean, April was awful for him. He had a 696 OPS. May 1st to October 1st.
Starting point is 00:13:26 Edwin Encarnacione batted 269 with 34 home runs, which is more than a Breu hit for the entire season. He had 87 walks to 98 strikeouts, so he got the plate discipline back in 133 games. He looked like Edwin Encronosioen. Yeah. But, yeah, but there's still, but you can't ignore that month. You can't ignore the bad month.
Starting point is 00:13:46 And he wasn't that great in May either. He had a low 800s OPS. He had three, one bad month, two okay months, three great months. But, you know, for me the big thing is that at 35, it's going to stop at some point. Yeah, yeah. And I just think there's probably more risk involved with him than there is with a lot of similar players. I will get to second baseman in a moment. But, you know, I was lucky enough, as you know, to go to the Yankees game last night.
Starting point is 00:14:13 Let me tell you, playoff baseball is incredible. I had the best time. and this is what it's about people go to a game go to a football game go to a basketball game the NBA is starting up the NHL is back go to a concert a comedy show theater get there with seat geek download the seat geek app and let seat geek find you the best values because seat geek will let you sit back and be lazy while it searches multiple sites finds tickets grades the seats based on value and tells you which ones you should buy I mean what an awesome system that is I use seat geek all the time every purchase is fully guaranteed. That's a beautiful feature. And you listeners, you get 10 bucks off your first Seat Geek purchase. Just download the Seekek app and enter the promo code Fantasy. That's promo code fantasy for $10 off your first Seatgeek purchase. It's an awesome app. You will love it when you start using it. Download Seatgeek and use that code fantasy. Top five second baseman. We go back to points leagues. Okay, I'll actually give you a top six because Anthony Rizzo is number two.
Starting point is 00:15:16 Jose Altovae, followed by Rizzo, then Jose Ramirez. Brian Dozier was number four. He batted 310 with 21 home runs after the All-Star break. Daniel Murphy was number five, and Jonathan's scope was number six. So Al-Tuve, Rizzo, Jose Ramirez, and Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, and Jonathan Scope. I would say Scope is probably someone who's going to be a pretty popular bust candidate next season just had a real outlier season. I don't dislike the skill set here, especially with power.
Starting point is 00:15:53 I think he is a 25 plus Homer guy, assuming they don't change the baseballs in the offseason, which will be the asterisk on everything we discuss. There's no sign that that will happen. But, you know, he's probably more of a 260, 270 hitter who had a 293 kind of outlier season. So good second baseman was definitely underrated coming into the season, but will be someone that will be easy to overdraft. All right, that's Jonathan Scope, and those are your top five second baseman. In 2017, Chris, how are things at home? But me need to ask, how are they doing at home?
Starting point is 00:16:36 You know, my wife has to deal with me, so it's always hit or miss that. Perfect. You're the target audience then. Get her some flowers. We're thinking Chris? Get your wife some flowers. And all of you out there, get your wife some flowers, get your mom some flowers, get anyone some flowers. There's never a bad time to do it. Things are going well. Things are going a little rough right now. Go to proflowers.com. Get a bouquet and save 20% with our promo code at checkout. The promo code is A-N-S. Like Adam, Nancy, Scott. A-N-N-S. Proflowers.com is great. I actually got my wife Proflowers a bouquet last month, and she really liked it. And I saved 20 bucks with the promo code A&S. And I don't want you to let me make you look bad. I don't want your wife to be like, Adam A's your guy, his white flowers.
Starting point is 00:17:27 Don't let me do that. I don't want to be that guy. So go ahead and get in on it. Go to proflowers.com. They do a great job. A lot of different options. Beautiful bouquets. They're guaranteed to stay fresh for seven days or more or your money back.
Starting point is 00:17:40 That's pretty awesome. and they give you more bloom for your buck. It's really an easy thing to do. You just go online, you pick a bouquet. You send it to someone. You can put a card and a note in there. And you get 20% off any bouquet of $29 or more at proflowers.com when you use our code A.N.S. Again, 20% off a bouquet of $29 or more.
Starting point is 00:18:00 Proflowers.com. The promo code is A.N.S. All right, news and notes. Noah Cindergarde said he felt the best on Sunday he pitched. She said he felt that was the best he's felt in his entire life. That's what he said. So, hooray, first Sindergarde. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:16 Good times. Johnny Quato seemed to indicate that he will not opt out of his contract with San Francisco. Are you at all optimistic about a Quato bounce back next year? I would expect he will be someone that I'll be targeting, depending on how far he falls in my drafts. I just don't expect that he lost it all that quickly. Right. Carter Caps had surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Matt Carpenter's been bothered by a sore shoulder, but he won't need off-season surgery.
Starting point is 00:18:49 Most likely to bounce back. Noah Cinderguard, Johnny Quato, or Matt Carpenter? Matt Carpenter. I just think anytime you're talking most likely, I'm going to avoid – and you give me the option to avoid pitching, I'm going to avoid pitching. It's just so hard to predict. And Trevor Bauer is going to start game one of the ALDS against the Yankees. They're keeping Kluber on Kluber's schedule.
Starting point is 00:19:13 They're going to use Kluber in a game five on regular rest instead of in a game four on short rest. They like Trevor Bauer's rubber arm and they won't need him for as many innings because they will use the bullpen if they need to. And from a fan – well, we'll get to the fantasy angle, but what do you think about this, Chris? Trevor Bauer, game one. I think it's fine. I mean, I know you want to throw your best pitcher in the first game and make sure that you get off to a good start and all that. But I think Trevor Bauer, as much as I've been skeptical of him, there do appear to be some real changes that he's made over the course of the last year or so. It's hard to argue with the results that he's had lately.
Starting point is 00:19:55 And he looks good. Last 12 starts, and he had a relief appearance in there too. So 13 appearances, 12 starts for Bauer. He's got a 242 ERA. He's 9 and 1 with a 242 ERA. and when he started throwing a slider. He was not throwing a slider at all. He started throwing it in 242 ERA and 13 appearances, 12 starts.
Starting point is 00:20:17 Yeah, it was about 12. I'm looking at the Brooks baseball right now. Over the course of the second half of the season, he threw the slider about 12% of the time, didn't throw it at all before that. And he got pretty good results with it, 21% swing strike rate. It was his best with pitch,
Starting point is 00:20:34 and that could be something. You know, he's someone that I think probably throws too many pitches. Like, he's so ridiculously talented and has put so much work in that he feels confident in his ability to throw four or five different pitches. And the fact that he's always tinkering means that we're going to see some ups and downs from him. But what he's shown over the last couple of months could be the very best version of Trevor Bauer. All right, well, let's take a look at how we did in the preseason, and if we made good picks, okay? And I think we all got every division winner right. Nope.
Starting point is 00:21:18 Except for Heath. One division. We were unanimous on every single division except for the NL West. Yeah, Heath took the Giants to win the division. Other than that, we all got the six division winners right. I guess that wasn't too difficult. I don't know that we got any second place teams, right? We all had the Blue Jays finishing in second.
Starting point is 00:21:41 Yeah. Heath had the Royals finishing in second, so that was close, but no. We all had the tigers otherwise. Yeah, none of us had the twins or the Yankees. Or the angels. Or the angels, yeah. I had the Rangers. You had...
Starting point is 00:21:55 Me and Scott and I had the Rangers, you and Heath. Wow, how about that? Scam of the Rangers, Creef had the Mariners. None of us are the Angels. In the National League East, we all picked the Braians. Cardinals didn't finish second, right? The Brewers did? The Brewers did.
Starting point is 00:22:09 I'm almost positive. Yeah, I'm pretty sure. We all had the Mets in second in the NL East. Oops. Scam had the Cardinals. Kreeh had the Pirates. And we all had the Giants finishing in second place, except he actually had them in first and the Dodgers in second.
Starting point is 00:22:28 The one thing I was happy about was I was kind of high in the Diamondbacks. I had them... Did we pick wild cards? I guess not. No. I may have picked them to be a wild card team. I picked them to finish third. I probably didn't pick them to be a wild card team.
Starting point is 00:22:43 But I thought they... Scam picked them to finish third, and Kreeh picked them to finish fourth. That's amazing. It's amazing how similar Scott and I are, and you and Heath. It's pretty weird. Bold predictions.
Starting point is 00:22:57 I think we all got like one out of three and Scott got two out of three. I think Scott or he's got any of that's right. Scott got two right. Scott got one right. Scott got Bogart's right. Scott got Zander Bogart slipping out of the top eight at shortstop. Scott's bold predictions were James Paxton is a top three AL-Sai-L.
Starting point is 00:23:17 I want to give him credit for that. James Paxton was very good. But he's not going to. I mean, if you want to give Scott credit for James Paxton finishing top three in the Sayong, I might as well ask for credit for Jock Peterson as a top five NL. MVP because neither of those is going to happen. Yeah, but at least, at least Paxson was good. Five, five.
Starting point is 00:23:37 Had his moments. Scott got one. My three-bow predictions were, oh, this one's a doozy. Gregory Polanco will be the best Pirates outfielder. Uh? No. He was probably the second best. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:23:50 For fantasy. Blake Snell gets demoted before the All-Star break. Nailed it. Yep. And Greg Byrd has a better season than Hanley Ramirez. Just missed. I don't, that's not fair. Like, Greg Berg would have had a really good season.
Starting point is 00:24:04 I'm going to be very high on Greg Bird going into next year. I think he could have had a fine season. And Heath's bold predictions. Danny Salazar leads the AO in strikeouts. Felix Hernandez wins 20 games. And Mike El Franco was the top 10 third baseman in both formats, which wasn't even that bold, but also wrong. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:26 And your bold predictions, what were they? Two hitters reach 50 homers for the first time since 2006. Nailed it. Yeah. I even named one of the two 50 homer guys. John Carlos Stan was the first player I named when I mentioned possibilities for 50 homer seasons. And let's just assume that Aaron Judge was the sixth name out of the five that I mentioned. There you go. There you go. I remember that being the case.
Starting point is 00:24:54 All right, so you got that one. Billy Hamilton finished just short of 100 steals. Unfortunately, he got 59, so that whole prediction did not come short. He didn't even lead baseball. Wow. He missed 23 games, so I think he could have stolen 41 bases in those 23 games. Probably, yeah. And like we mentioned before, Jock Peterson did not finish in the top five among the NLMVP. I mean, the vote hasn't been cast yet.
Starting point is 00:25:21 We'll see what happens. And I could see him sneak in there at first. 50th. 55? Yeah, 55. I don't know if we're going to get any of these right here. A L-MVP, we all had Trout except Scott had Donaldson. We got a chance there with Trout.
Starting point is 00:25:38 Yeah, but probably not. NLMVP, Chris Bryant, Heath had Rizzo, you and Scott had Harper. If Harper didn't get hurt, it would have been him. All right, so who's your ALMVP? I'm going to go with Al-Tuve. Me too. I think both him and. judge have great cases. I don't think there's a clear distinction between the two. And so I'll just,
Starting point is 00:26:02 I think it's kind of a, I think Jose Al Tuvegette, like Leonardo DiCaprio, Best Actor, Oscar, kind of here, just like, you've been good for a long time. We'll just give it to you. It's a lifetime achievement kind of thing. Yeah, I'll take out Tuve too. The lack of strikeouts is just so impressive and really matter. And just the consistency. If you're talking about volume, I think value, I think consistency does matter. Like, I think the end numbers for Aaron Judge are incredible and staggering and he was amazing. But the fact that Jose Al Tuvae was just Jose Al Tuvae every day. Really plays a big factor, I think. And then he had one month where he hit like $4.50 or something.
Starting point is 00:26:34 Yeah. Who's your NL MVP? That's the tough one. I guess it's Aronado for me. I think you can go with about six different guys, and I won't complain. I think Aronado probably would be sixth for me. I would go with Paul Gulchman. Okay.
Starting point is 00:26:50 And, yeah, that's a good one, too. Kind of similar to Al Tuve, just... It's your turn. My A. Al-Sai Young, Chris Archer. Not so much. You were being kind of goofy. You went with Marcus Stroman. Look.
Starting point is 00:27:05 Look, I think it was a good pick. Chris Sale for Heath, Justin Verlander for Scott. I think Kluber's got it locked up. I think he probably gets it. Heath definitely has the best chance of being right. But look, look, Marcus Stroman could finish in the top five. No, he couldn't. Sure he could.
Starting point is 00:27:24 A 309 ERA over two. 200 innings? Really? That won Rick Porcelo the dang Tsaiung last year. Maybe. All right, so it's going to be Kluber, Sayl, Severino. Probably. Yeah, I don't really know who else it would be after that.
Starting point is 00:27:42 It would have been Kichel, but, you know, there's that. NL. Syong. I went with DeGrom. Everybody else went with Kershaw. I was trying to not pick Kershaw. Scher? I think it I think
Starting point is 00:27:55 Kershaw still got a chance It could also be It could be Scherzer Yeah I would probably give it to Scherzer And uh AL rookie of the year We're all wrong on this It's gonna be judge We all went Ben Intendi
Starting point is 00:28:08 And then ooh great pick by me Hunter Renfro for NL rookie of the year All of our rookie of the year picks for AnL are awful Pretty bad Cota Glover for Heath And Dansby Swanson for Chris and Scott I think they all got sent down at one point during the season.
Starting point is 00:28:24 Did Glover get sent down, or did he just go on the DL and disappear? He might not have gotten sent down, but he, you know. Heath wins. Austin, you know, Andrew Ben and Tendi might finish second. Who's going to win NL Rookie of the Year? It's Bellinger, right? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Sorry, that should have been more obvious to me.
Starting point is 00:28:43 All right, and those were our picks before the year. It's not easy, I guess. But hey, we got the division winners, right? Good for us. Some things that caught my eye in the last week or so And well, the home stretch of the regular season Let's start with well let's do some pitchers Well let's do hitters actually
Starting point is 00:29:01 Okay my bad let's do hitters five hitters Chris Finished with an OPS over a thousand That qualified that doesn't even include Bryce Harper But Trout judge Votto Stanton and Blackman All had an OPS over a thousand You look at the previous four years combined There were six hitters that had an OPS over 1,000.
Starting point is 00:29:21 They were five this year, Mio Mayo. There were probably, there had to have been at least two guys who would have done it if they qualified with J.D. Martinez, right? Oh, for sure. My goodness, he was ridiculous with the Diamondbacks, but Harper didn't qualify, and I guess Martinez didn't either. Yeah, J.D. Martinez would have been second in baseball if he qualified. That's the high trounce. Yeah. So it was a year for hitting, no doubt.
Starting point is 00:29:53 And actually shout out to Jake and KC for winning the podcast league, beating Scott. Wait a go, Jake. Yeah, he crushed Scott in the final week, and he did it. He really won the league by streaming two-star pitchers. And I couldn't believe how successful it was because he was picking up a lot of crappy two-star pitchers. But it worked in the points league, and it's kind of, you know, I'd probably need to see it work one more time before I bought into that philosophy, because I don't believe in streaming bad two-star pitchers, but it worked beautifully for Jake.
Starting point is 00:30:24 And he was the most active on waivers. He had a strategy. He stuck to it. And good job. Congratulations, Jake. Way to go, Jake. Yeah, you dethrone Scott. Actually, I don't think Scott won it last year.
Starting point is 00:30:34 I don't know. Scott wins it most years. So good job, Jake. Okay, other things that caught my eye. Luke Weaver, 14 earn runs in 7 and 2 thirds over his last two starts. He was looking like a top 35-ish starting pitchers. on draft day next year. Does this change anything for you, these last two starts? I think it probably does just a little bit.
Starting point is 00:30:57 Just because you want to see someone finish the season strong. But looking at Scott's rankings, he does have him as a top 35 guy for next year, number 33. And I think there's, that seems like a pretty good spot because once you get past, He's in that range with a lot of guys who've got question mark. Scott has him in the Alex Wood, Danny Duffy, Luis Castillo, Brad Peacock range, and I think that's a good place for him to be. Yeah, I wish Weaver had more of an innings excuse, but it seemed like a pretty normal jump for him.
Starting point is 00:31:36 You know, I could look at the last two stars and be like, well, he got tired, but he threw 119 and a third innings in 2016. He threw 138 this year. So, I don't know, it is uncharted territory. It could just be a couple of bad starts, too. Really bad, like, this is the thing that I do like about him is this is a guy who maybe didn't get the prospect hype that Alex Reyes did for the Cardinals before the season, but he was a top 50 guy before the season. Oh, and he had a great year of Weaver in the PCL. Great year.
Starting point is 00:32:10 All right, Jake Junis, his last 11 games, 10 of them starts. He had a 361 ERA, nine walks, 50 strikeouts. wasn't great in the minors until this year and then he really turned it on and he will uh he's 25 years old now he turned 25 in September I don't really like Jake Junis' stuff that much I kind of feel like he won't be able to recreate this
Starting point is 00:32:33 No it feels very fluky especially because the overall production was just not very good so I would not buy into Jake Junice going in it next year But I am buying into Blake Snell Blake Snell might be next year's Louis Severino Now, he had some real clunkers down the stretch, including his second to last start, four runs in an inning at the Yankees. But then he finished that up.
Starting point is 00:32:55 His last start of the year, seven scoreless with 13 strikeouts at Baltimore. Just last 10 starts for Snell, 284 ERA, 55 strikeouts, the 18 walks, and 57 innings. I'm excited as heck about Blake Snell. I should have said hell because it rhymes with Snell. I'm excited as hell about Blake Snell. He started to look like the. guy we were hoping he would be. You know, you look at his overall second half stats.
Starting point is 00:33:21 Eight percent walk rate, that's actually above average. 24 percent strikeout rate, that's very good. If he can be just an average control guy, I think the sky's the limit. He's actually in a very similar place to where Carlos Rodon was last year. Extremely talented player, had trouble putting it together. The secondary stuff wasn't quite there. but when that control improved, the flashes are really impressive. Now, obviously, let's hope he has a better 2018 and Carlos Rodon had a 2017,
Starting point is 00:33:55 but that wasn't really performance-related. That was just the guy couldn't stay healthy. Okay, Blake Snow, we like you, make it happen. You know who else is looking like the guy we thought he was going to be, Chris Towers? Who's that? Travis Darnow. Over the last 28 days of the season, he was the number one catcher in fantasy. He batted 327 with six home runs, four walks, five strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:34:17 Apparently, he tinkered with his swing. I think the leg kick was a little bit different for Travis Darno. Late round fire. He was a swing tinkerer early in the season. Yes. Remember in spring in spring. Too much. Too much so, yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:36 He went a little crazy with it. Look, that the bar at catcher is so. low that someone with his talent level is going to be fantasy relevant. He'll be a nice sleeper in drafts next year. Travis Darno, a sleeper in drafts. Darno or Zunino? I'll go with Zunino. The track record's a little better there.
Starting point is 00:34:56 All right. Last night's playoff game, we had home runs from Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Dede Gregorius. And we had two crap starts from two top 15 pitchers. In fact, top 10 in points. Irvin Santana. Irvin Santana was the number 10 starting pitcher in points, number 14 in Roto. And Luis Severino got one out last night.
Starting point is 00:35:19 He was a top eight pitcher in fantasy this year. It was weird. It was just weird. Not so much for Santana because he's so bad in Yankee Stadium. Yeah. But it was really weird for Severino. I think, you know, you look at how quickly Joe Girardi got that bullpen ready. I wonder if it wasn't a situation where he was told before the game, we're going to, we're, you know,
Starting point is 00:35:41 We're ready to get a full game out of the bullpen if we need it. And, you know, with a young guy like him, adrenaline running high, I wonder if that just got to him. I don't know what it was, but I hope he bounces back. And the funny thing is, if Severino, if the Yankees had lost, that would have been great for Severino because I'm so nervous about the innings. But right now, look, it's not terrible. It's 161 and 2 thirds in 2015.
Starting point is 00:36:07 And then 151 and a third in 2016. so 10 fewer innings. But he goes up about 42 innings this year. That's 32 innings from his previous career high, up to 193 in a third regular season innings. If he had just gotten rocked for one-third of an inning, I probably wouldn't be as nervous, but I just don't want to see Severino.
Starting point is 00:36:30 I mean, I personally do want to see Severino make a late postseason run. But from a fantasy perspective, I really don't. He's already 40 innings over, 42 innings over last year. He's got a kind of thin frame, and he throws 99-niles per hour, and it just scares me. It's Cinder Guardian. It's a bit of a concern, but look, we'll worry about that when we get there, all right, Adam. He might throw one more start. Oh, no, they're clearly – I mean, there's throwing Trevor Bauer in game one.
Starting point is 00:36:57 Come on, they're clearly going to the – The Indians are prohibited favorites. They should – I don't know if they are, but they should be. They're much better. The more interesting player out of that group that you mentioned from last night's game has to be Eddie Rosario, right? Yeah, I mean, so Al pointed out, I pointed out the home road splits. No, I pointed out the lefty-righty splits for Rosario.
Starting point is 00:37:20 I think Al said it's the home road splits that really matter because Target Field's a good park for him and Yankee Stadium is a good park for him. And he took advantage. I mean, his home run was only a home run in Yankee Stadium. It was right over the wall. He crushed it, line drive, but right over the wall in right field. But yeah, great year, a huge power break. break out for him. He went, you know, fully, you know, Brian Dozier on the, on the good end, if you want to give a lot of credit or, you know, kind of Rubnet Odor on the bad. If you, if you want to be skeptical, he basically just became a, a Deadpool fly ball hitter, up his fly ball percentage to 42%, which isn't crazy high, but, you know, the home run to fly ball rate went up.
Starting point is 00:38:09 The infield fly ball rate went up as well, which tells you that I think he was probably selling out for power a little more. And, you know, Brian Dozier had another great year. It was up and down a little bit, but, you know, he was very good. But then there is downside. Okay. All right, interesting. They had the twins, twins had a great ear. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:32 They had the best turnaround, and it might have been the best turnaround in baseball history. I don't think, no team had ever made the playoffs. after losing 103 games. I know that. So in that regard, it is the best turnaround in baseball history. But in my personal opinion, they didn't make the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:38:47 They made the play-in game for the playoffs, and they lost it. So, yeah, sorry, twins. All right, let's read some emails. And Spencer in Tampa, subject line, bad beat. Please feel bad for me. Okay.
Starting point is 00:39:02 Going into last Friday, I was in my semi-final matchup in my most important league. Head-to-head categories. I was tied five-five. comfortably winning all five pitching categories and uncomfortably losing all five hitting categories. But I own the tiebreaker over my opponent to move to the finals. Friday night, my opponent started Yvonneova, Sean Newcomb, and Marco Estrada.
Starting point is 00:39:25 On the surface, I felt fine. Even if one of those guys had a bad start, I'd be all right. Instead, all three had solid starts. My opponent takes over ERA, 323 to my 357. He then benches all of his pitchers for the rest of his week, knowing his good chance of ERA. And with that, the week. I pick up Oterreasy for Saturdays start at Baltimore, but I sit him, knowing that I have Scherzer and DeGrom going the next day. If I was going to get my ERA under 323, it would be those guys, not Oteresee doing it. So, Otorese on Saturday, of course,
Starting point is 00:39:58 shuts out the Orioles for six innings, and I continue to lose the ERA category. On Sunday, I need great starts from Scherzer and DeGrom pitching against each other. They both go out and do their thing at about 430. I check, I'm now losing our ERA only 323 to 328. I have no starters left. He is nobody left, but I have Greg Holland, Brad Hand, and Blake Trinan. So he's down 328 to 323 with three relievers left. This is to get to the finals. Hand does not pitch. Trinand does not pitch. But Greg Holland comes in in a non-save situation and throws a scoreless inning as I internally scream to myself hoping that inning will lower my ERA enough to tie and therefore win my matchup. I go in and I check my matchup.
Starting point is 00:40:47 I go right to the ERA category and I cry a lot. I lose ERA 3.234 to 3.235. Oh, that is a bad, bad beat. I may have a beat. Really? In my main league, I was the number one seed last season, lost in the first round after my buy. This season, number one seed, get the buy, go into my first matchup against the same exact team who beat me last year. I go into Sunday night baseball with the categories tied five to five, but batting average is separated by a thousandth of a point.
Starting point is 00:41:34 I have Mike Trout, he has Carlos Correa. It's 5-5. I'm also leading in saves 3-2. I have Ken Giles. He has Jared Parker. Were you winning batting average or were you losing it? I was winning batting average by a thousandth of a point. So I needed Mike Trout to have a better game than Carlos Correa. Because if it was 5-5, the tiebreaker was hit, and I had more hits, so I would move through. Okay.
Starting point is 00:42:05 So I go through the game. Mike Trout, I think goes two for three with a walk. Carlos Correa goes one for three with a walk. So I'm feeling great. And then I realize that I'm only up one in saves. He has the Angels closer and I have the Astros closer. If he ties in saves, he wins the week. And of course, Parker gets the save for the Angels.
Starting point is 00:42:29 I didn't realize that until about 1230, like 1145 on Sunday. night. I didn't realize the safe situation. I was just looking at Trout and Correa. I'm watching the game. And I lost. I probably would have sat Trout. Look. Well, no, I couldn't. It's a weekly line. Oh, okay, okay. Okay. So that was my, because that one was so heartbreaking because once Correa came up, I think, in the 8th and didn't get a hit, I was like, that's it. I'm moving on to the finals, baby. And that was when I realized that he had part.
Starting point is 00:43:06 Parker who could get the save. And of course, he pitched a shutout perfect ninth inning to get the say, and it just, it was so heartbreaking. Yeah, that's a bummer. I'm sorry, buddy. All right, more emails. This is from Joe Pig in Alabama. Dear Mike D.M.C.A. and AdRock.
Starting point is 00:43:24 I know those fellas. Yeah. Not a fan. We're scrolling through. You're not a fan? No. That is the worst musical take you have ever had, Adam. No, it's not.
Starting point is 00:43:35 They're not good. It is. They're just a gimmick. They're incredible. Paul's boutique is one of the best albums ever. You're ridiculous. I am so upset. I tell you what, I'm really, I was very upset about Tom Petty.
Starting point is 00:43:48 Very upset. That one, yeah, that one got to me. That was the first concert my wife and I ever went to. Before we were dating, we went and saw Tom Petty. The amphitheater in Palm Beach? No, the Panthers Arena. Oh, okay, because I saw him twice in Palm Beach. Yeah, he was amazing.
Starting point is 00:44:03 And he just, I don't know a damn thing about Tom Petty, But I just feel like he was so nice. So cool. He was just like... He was like the like kind of lame uncle who was still cool in spite of it. Like he was just like he was so above everything. Right. He didn't try to be a rock star.
Starting point is 00:44:23 He just was a rock star. Yeah. He was... Tom Petty was awesome. That one really bummed me out. I started listening to all of his saddest songs. Like not even... They're not even sad, but they're like they made me sad.
Starting point is 00:44:34 Like wildflowers. Yeah. And learning to fly. Yeah, I threw full moon fever on yesterday. It was very sad about that. But RIP, Tom Petty. Joe Pig asks, who were some of the under-the-radar performers for 2017? And what's the likelihood of a repeat?
Starting point is 00:44:52 So he actually gives some names. Ender NCRte, 200 hits. Jonathan's scope, 30 home runs. Gou Gonzalez, that's an auto-correct for Gio. Whit, Merrifield, Luis Severino. If you look at those five, Chris, those are good ones. Enciarte, Scope, Gou, Gonzalez, Witt-Maryfield, Louis Severino. We already talked about scope, probably not going to be able to repeat again,
Starting point is 00:45:18 especially the batting average. You're asking for, like, guys who had good seasons, but maybe didn't get a lot of credit for them? Well, no, specifically these guys in the email. Do you think Gio, Gonzalez, Witt, Merrifield, and Louis Severino are in line to repeat their performances? I think Louis Severino should be viewed as a top 10 pitcher next year. The performance for him, I don't think there was anything fluky about it.
Starting point is 00:45:45 I think this guy, you know, assuming he can stay healthy, I think he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. You know, the development of even a passable change-up, and I think he's got a pretty decent one now, but the development of that, I think, has just done wonders for him. and the fastball slider combination was already so devastating that I buy in completely. Geo, it depends on what people's expectations are. If people look at him and say, well, he's a low 3s, R.A. guy, then I'll probably avoid him. If people look at him and say, it's going to get a lot of wins,
Starting point is 00:46:18 going to pitch a lot of innings, mid-3s, high 3s, high 3s, RA, not helpful in whip, but maybe doesn't hurt you, then I think he's fine. I think Joe's fine. Whitmerfield's pretty interesting. You think he's top 10 second base? basement next year. Scott and Heath both have him in the top 10. And speed is such a rare commodity that I think that alone probably gets him there. And Austin from Illinois wants us to rank
Starting point is 00:46:44 these pitchers for 2018 and in Dynasty. It's very tough group here. Luke Weaver, Zach Godley, Jose Berrios, Luis Castillo. Weaver Godly Barrios Castillo. That's tough. Really tough. I'm going to assume Scott has godly highest among this group. I would probably go Castillo godly Burrios Weaver. I was going to put Weaver first. That's not, I can't exactly argue with it. He was really good. I just, I love what Luis Castillo showed us this year.
Starting point is 00:47:26 And I think he's kind of the opposite of, he's a lot like Luis Severino in a lot of ways. but a little bit of an opposite. His fastball change-up is the stronger combination. And if another off-season, he gets that slider to just be a little bit more of a swing-and-miss pitch, you've got a great strikeout pitcher, pretty decent control, who gets a ton of ground balls. He had a 59% ground ball rate this season. There's a lot to like about Luis Castillo.
Starting point is 00:47:57 I think he could be an absolute ace. Who do you like tonight? John Gray and Grinky I think you probably have to give the Diamondbacks the edge with the starting pitcher there He's been pitching like crap lately though The game isn't cores, right? No, it's in Arizona
Starting point is 00:48:13 Okay, yeah, John Gray on the road Can be really tough I'm gonna go with the upset here I'm gonna go with the upset First of all I don't really believe in upsets and I said Granky's pitching like crap It's been his last two starts before that he was like completely brilliant.
Starting point is 00:48:32 He's really good. Yeah. I don't really believe in upsets in one-game playoffs, so... Do you like the one-game system? I like the second wild card system. I think it's better than nothing. I don't like the one-game playoff. It's not fair.
Starting point is 00:48:49 I like it. You do? It's fun. It's dramatic, but your team's never been in it. And if they had a five-game or five, like the Yankees were five or six games better than the twins, they were a lot better than the twins. If they had lost, I would be really upset. Yeah, I would have been pretty annoyed if they had lost.
Starting point is 00:49:03 Yeah, as someone who, like, you know, I'm a Marlins fan, but I don't get, I don't get up or down with them. Like, I'm never, I'm never, like, my day's never ruined by a Marlins loss. And, you know, they haven't had a lot of losses that mattered over the last 15 years. But as someone who's mostly an independent viewer, I just, I think it's so fun. Yeah, no, it is. I'm looking forward to tonight. I really am. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:29 Yeah, why not? I'll go with the Rockies. Why not? Routing for Arizona. Arizona is better. Stand up. So, yeah, Arizona's a better team. They'd be a stiffer challenge. It would be interesting to see those Dodgers pitchers pitching in Corr's field.
Starting point is 00:49:45 Like, Kershaw didn't have a very good start over the weekend at Kores. Playoff Kores would be fun. Playoff Kores would be fun. All right, Chris Towers. Playoff, Chris Towers is very fun. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for having me, Adam. It's nice to be back.
Starting point is 00:49:58 Yeah. Yeah, it's great to have you back. And I'm sure you'll be back even more. Scott is taking his six months off for paternity leave. We'll talk to him at the All-Star break next year. For Chris Towers, I'm Adam Azer. We'll see you later.

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