Fantasy Baseball Today - 10/11: 2019 First Round (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 11, 2018

Ready to look ahead to Round 1 of your 2019 Fantasy drafts? The time has come! But first, some news (2:50). We discuss the late-season slumps of Carlos Correa and Jose Ramirez and what they mean long term ... OK, let's get into Scott's Top 12 for 2019 (12:00). We discuss just about every one of these players and wonder if Jose Altuve should go as late as Scott has him going, if Alex Bregman is first round material, if Manny Machado's new ballpark matters and much more ... Some MLB playoff predictions (33:10)! Then we're looking at four recently-eliminated teams and we'll give you a player who will get better and a player who will get worse for NYY (39:30), CLE (46:04), COL (53:33) and ATL (54:30). We discuss Gary Sanchez, Shane Bieber, Ronald Acuna and more ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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All right It is LCS time Yes, good baseball coming up. Welcome everybody to fantasy baseball today. You know how we do it. We're not really going to talk about much real baseball. Not a lot of IRL baseball. But fantasy baseball, we're all about it.

Scott White has a top 24. a first two rounds for 2019. Already outdated. Already outdated. All right. It's going to have to make a couple of changes. In fact, probably will, not long after the podcast ends. But let's talk it through.

Yeah, all right, good. Pick it apart one by one. And Chris Towers has nothing to bring to the table. Absolutely nothing. Fair. Fair. Yeah, I mean, look, I'm not going to argue. Look, like, I am an empirical-based,

guy. I only argue in evidence. And frankly, the evidence backs it up. There you go. All right. Let's start with news and notes. Then we'll get to the top 24. Then we'll read some emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We'd also like to mention that, you know, we have the Friends theme song for this podcast on some episodes. Friends is always on never, ever a time in America where Friends is not on a channel somewhere. And I just watch it. the finale and I'm a little emotional.

They really, they really were friends, weren't they? They were. They really were our best friends, I'd say. And then I watched the pilot, and it just sets up for 10 years in advance, the first episode in the last, it's just like sunrise, sunset is pretty much what I have to say. How I Met Your Mother kind of did that. Oh, really? In a malicious, disgusting way. Oh, wow.

Now I have to see it. No, it was one of the worst, one of the worst series. finale of all time. Really? The only character on Friends that I believe is actually real as Marcel. And I think the whole show it's actually a figment of Marcel's imagination.

That is my take on Friends. It's the only way it makes sense, actually. He's probably dead now. It's the only way Monica and Joey, or Rachel and Joey getting together later in the series makes any sense. That was terrible. I know.

That was really a criminal. All right. Carlos Correa is still playing through a painful back injury. Carlos Correa. He has hit since coming off the DL, 37 games off the DL late in the season, 180 with two home runs in 37 games and a 517 OPS. But he only had an 832 OPS before that. Scott did Carlos Correa, make your first.

first two rounds? Oh, no. He didn't. And for a couple reasons. I mean, I think it's fair to assume his back is bothering him. He's basically said as much. Had some interesting comments recently that I'll try to pull up as I'm talking about him. But shortstop has so many high-end players now that it doesn't really serve you to give him that much of the benefit of the doubt.

I mean enough that he's still, I think, seventh in my rankings going into next year. But, you know, he's getting pushed aside clearly for, like, Francisco Lindor now. Breggman. Returner, obviously, Bregman. Yeah. Mani Machado's only going to be shortstop eligible next year, at least at the start. So, yeah, this is what Correa said. I know every time I swing and miss, it's going to hurt.

So I try not to swing and miss, and then I try to baby my swing, and I don't swing as hard as I usually do or as quick as I usually do. So it's definitely been tough. Sounds like he shouldn't be playing. You know what's going to be awesome is drafting Carlos Corrine in like the fourth round and getting second round value for him next year. It's a good chance. It's a good chance that'll happen.

Yep. Yeah, I'm giving him a complete free pass. You don't hear players when they're still playing. Like, one thing is the season's over, but still playing. You don't often hear them go into such detail about how much pain they're in. So he's obviously playing through it and struggling badly. He did hit a home run in the ALDS. I think that was his only hit.

Jose Ramirez, meanwhile, I don't think there's an injury excuse. He went 0 for 11 in the ALDS. He finished the year as the number one hitter in points, number four in Roto. And that was with a 165 batting average in his last 36 games with two home runs. It's basically the same. So Correa, 37 games, last 37. games of the year hit 180 with two home runs. Jose Ramirez, last 38 games, hit 165 with two home runs.

He had a 273 slugging percentage. It was terrible. And does that impact, Chris, does that impact your ranking or your thought of Jose Ramirez into next season? Not even a little bit. No. Like, he struck out a little bit more than you would expect in that span. but we have basically from like the start of July 2017 to what's that the start of September

basically maybe mid-August of him as the best hitter in fantasy you're not going to have to draft him as the best hitter in fantasy you know well if you want to draft him you are going to have to draft him as the best hitter because if you don't take him one you ain't getting him 24 no you Okay. No, but I'm saying like he's third. Yeah, like he's going to go third or fourth or fifth in the vast majority of leagues, maybe second sometimes, but he's really, really good. If he takes a step back from his 2017, and I would expect that. Like, he had, I think any time someone who isn't Trout is the number one hitter in fantasy, your baseline expectation should be that they take a step back.

It's not because he's going to be a worst player. It's just because a bunch of things came together in the right way, and that's probably not going to happen anymore. But he's still, there's no reason to think he won't be an elite hitter. He didn't strike out that much during this stretch. He was about a 95 strikeout pace. He walked a ton. He walked more than he struck out in this stretch.

Is he going to hit 39 home runs again? No. He doesn't have to, though. If he's a 30-30 guy, that's still fine. I think there's reasons to believe he won't steal 34 bases again. I think there's reasons to believe he won't hit 39 home runs again. If he takes all those steps back, you're still looking at a really, really good hitter, who probably goes back to hitting 300 because he only hit 272 this year.

Yeah, with like a 250 Babbitt. Yeah. Okay. All right. Well, sorry for asking. Nick Senzel, Red's infield prospect, is going to have elbow surgery to remove bone spurs. He'll be out for a bit. but should be fine for spring training.

And the Nationals acquired Kyle Bearclaw from the Marlins for international signing bonus money. We're going for it. trades are happening? All right. Can I ask you a question? What's better? Rugnett Odor and his brother Rugnett Odor, Texas Rangers organizational players. Or soon-to-be Marlins, Victor Mesa Jr. and Victor Victor Mesa.

What's her vector, Victor, Victor? Exactly. And you know, the name of their father is obviously Victor Mesa. Oh, they're brothers? Yeah. Yeah, they're the Mesa brothers. I didn't know that. Victor, Victor Mesa is clearly Anthony Popple Chekhov's favorite player. If I can throw a Star Trek joke in there. He's twice as good as Victor Mesa, G. Yeah, at least. I have no idea what we're talking about right now.

The Cuban, the Marlins are going all in on. They have the second. most international bonus pool money, and they've made a handful of trades because they're going after the famed Mesa brothers. Oh, they're going after both of them? Yes. They're a packaged deal, my friend. You know who is not? Well, actually, no, I think Sean Doolittle has a team option for next year.

I was going to say, if Bear Clause is a good pitcher, I know it went south for him, but he might be salvageable. This might be a sneaky little trade by the nationals. Yeah, he's just. not the kind of pitcher you want closing. Okay. Yeah. I mean... Like, constitutionally, you don't want... Yeah. But he's good. Like, if he becomes

the closer, I think he can be fine in that role. It's just... I would guess the Nationals don't want to invest that much in an acid. Leave that bare claw in the trash. It looks good still, but it's still. Not in the trash. That's mean. Well, that's what you... I worked at the donut job. Someone worked hard on it at the end of the day.

They all go in the trash. That's wasteful. Did you know that Duncan is dropping Duncan Donuts from its name? Just becoming Donuts? I've never had a Bearclaw. I've never had a Bearclaw either. I don't even know. Is it like an elephant ear? Is it like a layered pastry?

That's the Donut Shop guy. Come on, Donut, boy. We didn't serve Bearclaw at my particular donut shop. However, I believe it has like almonds. A Bearclaw is a sweet yeast-raised pastry, similar to a Danish, is usually filled with almond paste and sometimes raisins and often shaped in a semicircle

with slices along the curved end. This one I'm looking at does have layers. They haven't made bare claws on the Great British baking show, so that's why I don't know what it is. Crumbries. You know who should know so.

You know who should go on the Great British baking show. It's Margarne. That's me. Okay. This is a fantastic start to the podcast. I can't believe today's podcast. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is our email address. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

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stink. Yeah, that's right. You tell them, Chris. Gross. Throw that bear claw in the trash. All right, Mike Trout's number one. Mookie Betts number two, Jose Ramirez, number three. Well, Betts has been better than Trout two of the last three years, Scott.

Moron. Well, it's the same thing we say about Trout every year, and it proves true every year. He may not always be number one. There's sometimes been Altuvei in there, sometimes Betts, sometimes Harper. I think maybe even Goldschmidt one year. Trump may not always be number one, but he's always in the discussion in the mix right there at number one in terms of scoring. And why mess up a good thing? And this is, I think, the way to look at it.

If, I don't know, Francisco Lindor has everything come together. in the right way. He can probably eke out a narrow victory over Mike Trout and the best fantasy player sweepstakes. But you can't bet on the right, everything coming together. Like, it has happened for Mookie Betts to the last three years. Yeah, and it doesn't see, look, I'm taking Trout number one. We're all taking Trout number one.

I think Mookie Betts is the closest thing to try. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Like, it wouldn't, I think Bets will steal more bases than him. and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see bets be better than Trout. That's the only one that I think you took to him over Trout. I'd be like, all right, that's fine. Because I think he's amazing. I don't think there's anything funky about it.

It seems pointless. Yeah, yeah, it does. It does. Ramirez 3, Francisco Lindor, 4. And so, Scott. That's the first questionable one, I think. I think we could have an argument over who deserves to be fourth. Yeah, so my question, question for you first.

Is this for Points League? Did you consider stolen bases at all? Oh, yeah, I considered stolen bases. It's not really for anything in particular, because it's not really a list anybody's meant to draft off yet. It's just kind of a rough idea. Okay. So I considered elements of both formats, but Solimbasis was definitely a consideration, and that's one of the big reasons. I mean, Lindor's coming off of 38 Homer 25 steel season.

as a shortstop. And, you know, obviously there are a lot of good shortstuffs in the early rounds, like I'm saying, but it's still nice to be among the people who takes one of those short stops so that you don't have to settle for clearly lower tier stuff later. Yeah, I think he's great. I think this is two years in a row now with 30 homers, and, you know, this is probably the downside in terms of batting average. Yeah.

And you think he's at least going to get 15 steals. He's done that basically every year. This is the, if we're looking for who could have the 2018 Mookie Betz season, or I guess the Mike Trout season, Francisco Indoor would be my pick. Like I wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't take him number one. But if he has a 315 Babbup next year,

he's going to be maybe the number one player in fantasy. Because he plays in an incredible lineup at the top of a great lineup. he's going to hit, you know, I think at this point you probably assume he's going to hit 30 to 35 home runs, if not more. He's incredible. He's so good. Yeah. I think I'd go Al Tuvei, and I think you've got Altuve at like eighth. Yep.

I have seen Al Tuvei fall to the end of the first round or early second round in some of these early mock drafts. I don't get it. People are spooked. Why? He's not running. He didn't run. He ran. He didn't run at the beginning.

and then he started running and then we were like, oh, he's fine, he's running. He didn't have for power. The running is what I'm most concerned about because that, as I've said many times, is a decision-based stat. But I can't give Lindor more steals than Al-Tuvei. I mean, Al-Tufe stole three bases the entire second half, so I don't think he stole 11 in May and June, and he stole five the rest of the way. So I don't think he's out of the woods in terms of that. Like, he's still the safest bet for batting average.

And I suspect he probably bounces back with 20 home runs. But if he's only a 12 to 15 steel guy instead of a 30 to 35 steel guy, I think he's probably not even first round material. So I'm giving him some benefit of the doubt, I think, by ranking of eighth. What also helps his cause is that second base, I think, is clearly the weakest position going into next year. Yeah, it doesn't look great. Yeah, I was going to say that. Catcher.

Okay. Sorry. I don't even consider catcher a position. They're not a player. I should at least clarify when I say something like that. Catcher is far and away the worst. All right. So, uh, it's the second worst.

Trout bets, Jose Ramirez, Lindor. No one, Aeronado, five, Manny Machado, six, J.D. Martinez, seven. Then we get a pitcher, but Aaronado, Machado, J.D. Martinez. Chris, react. And Aeronado is another one that in a lot of these early mock drafts you're seeing, he's falling, too. You know, end of first round, maybe early second. I mean, I get it. He's not sexy anymore.

He doesn't seem like he has much upside. But even in a relative downseason, he was a stud. There's not really any, like, diminishing skill set there. Yeah. Almost two 300, led the NL and home runs, 100. 100 again. Almost certainly not going to be in a park that's not course field for half of his games. So there's nothing to dislike about Aaron Otto. There's also not, like, he can't be the number one player probably. Oh, well. Well, the one thing that people should know is that he was

playing hurt. The last 41 games, I mean, he was definitely playing hurt. He had an 809 OPS. He hit eight home runs in 41 games, batted 261. He still managed to give you some good power. He had a 230 ISO in that a 41 game stretch, but he was not himself. And that makes his final line look a lot worse. And then Scott, you have Machado, who had another great year. He's consistently right around 35 home runs. He stole 14 bases. You never know what you're going to get there with Machado with the steals.

But 297 batting average. Going to really take advantage of Yankee Stadium next year. Maybe. That would be nice. Because I do think one of the things that was not really worth diving that deep on when he got traded was that his numbers were a lot better at Camden Yards, and his numbers were worse with the Dodgers. So I do think there may be some, there's reason to be concerned with what Park he winds up at. Now, I think he's a first rounder either way, but it might be the difference of whether he goes sixth overall like I have him or whether he goes more like 11th. Yeah, so Machado with the Dodgers

He had an 825 OPS He batted 273 with 13 home runs and 66 games 825 OPS with let's say 15 steals about his pace That is not a first round Player probably Maybe yeah Like if he was his Dodgers self over a full season you're saying

Yeah Yeah I don't think that's a realistic scenario I don't think that's a realistic scenario I don't Home road splits for his career are relatively extreme. Are they? For a non-course player. It's like a hundred-point split.

That does not mean nothing to me. I mean, I think he's a great player, but why is Machado basically, in Scott, in your rankings, like, a round earlier than he was last year, you know? Well, I had a better year. Right, but he's capable, I mean. And he's shortstop eligible. Oh, I guess he wasn't. We knew he would be, but he wasn't when we drafted him. Yeah.

I mean, it was 2017 was the worst of his last four seasons by far. So I think that was the main reason. But I didn't feel totally comfortable with it. It's just somebody had to be pushed to the second round, so it made more sense to be the guy who didn't perform like a first rounder the year before. Here's a big question. Are the Yankees going to let him run? No.

Probably not. I was just assuming he's going to the Yankee. Well, no, but that was a jocular way to ask the relevant question, which is where he plays next year is going to matter. You know, if he's a 15 steel guy, then he's probably a first rounder or very close. If he's a zero steel guy like he wasn't 2016, the margin gets a lot thinner.

Yeah, I mean, I still think he's going to hit around 300. probably with at least 35 home runs. And if he goes to a loaded lineup like the Yankees, I mean, in a favorable park, it might be more like 40, probably 100 and 100. I don't think steals are make a break for him. All right, so Machado, I mean, you know where the power is. The batting average, though, is what fluctuates.

286, 294, then 259. I guess it really doesn't fluctuate. He just had one bad batting average year and back to 297 last year. He is a low strikeout hitter. So he, I mean, he hits for average when, you know something was off for him the first half of 2017 but he's fine now you look at bets and you look at machado 2017 they had low batting averages and

did a lot of other things right is there a guy that that is this year's bets slash machado that will bounce back to elite production maybe maybe Rizzo but he kind of did in the second half Rizzo baby he should be in your first two rounds and he isn't Shame on you. Yeah, sorry.

Let's move on. Let's go further. Janie Martinez, clear first round pick. Max Scherzer is, what, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eighth. Eighth, Max Scherzer number one. So not Altuvae. I actually have Eltuvae 11th. Okay, yeah, my bad. Did I say eighth earlier?

Yeah, he's 11. All right. Number nine is controversial. Bryce Harper. Who! I don't, I'm sure. Chris can make this case for me because he is the world's foremost Bryce Harper fan. I don't know, man.

Oh, ho-ho-hoo. It's really, he's a tough player to get a read on. You talk about inconsistent. 3.30, 243, 319, 249. Now, in 2016, when he hit 243, he at least had the excuse of, was a neck injury? I don't think we've heard any Bryce Harper injuries. It's not like he had a dramatically low Babbat this year. It was 289, which is a little lower than you would expect.

But that all normalized in the second half, the batting average issue. He had about 300 in the second half with a more typical Bryce Harper Babbitt. So I know there was a lot of talk early in the year. Oh, the shift is killing him. If you look at his batting average against the shift versus not, it's, I don't think that narrative really holds water. It's, well, yeah. I think it's more the dramatic drop in his contact rate. He had a career low 71.1% contact rate.

It didn't manifest itself in a really high swinging strike rate because he swung a lot less than he has. But he, I think, there were some flaws exposed in his game last year. And whether he can make the adjustments, you know, this was what we saw in 2016 when the same thing happened. And there were a lot of, there were a lot of similar concerns for him there. And he certainly did in 2017. He's just, he's someone that, like, someone probably has to draft in the first round range. Won't be me.

I prefer it won't be me. Yeah. And I don't feel great about that. That feels kind of stupid. Like, if I think he's good, I should draft him. Well, you should. It pays to be. you know, almost hypercritical of first round players

because if your first round pick goes busto, it's hard to recover from that. It's not impossible, but it's difficult. Now I have him a couple spots ahead of Altufe, who had the worst year. I mean, and you're talking points leagues. If you're talking points leagues, Harper led the majors and walks. There really isn't anything to complain about his production.

It's just a roto consideration and obviously a health consideration since he's had extended time. He's lost injuries over the years. I feel like the upside for Harper is higher than Al-TuVey. Yeah, well... He's probably a little risk here. I don't think the chance... I don't think he's higher.

Huh? Okay. I mean, Al-Tube has been the number one player. He has. So it was Harper. Not that long ago. Like, more recently than Bryce Harper. More recently than Bryce Harper. He won't the MVP last year, Al-Tube.

He's really good. I understand. He is really good. I think Harper, particularly if you can't count on Al Tuvei stealing at an elite rate anymore, I think Harper has more of a chance of being the best hitter in fantasy than Al Tuvei does. Al Tuvae probably will be really good. But I just don't feel like maybe what's a better way to frame it?

the most likely scenario maybe for Altuve is lower, but the downside for Harper is lower. Is that a better way of putting it? Sure. You're not wrong. And it's a brain versus gut thing for me with Harper. And in the end, when it comes down to it, if I'm staring at Bryce Harper and I have the number 11 pick and he's there,

my brain's going to win out. and I'm going to take him. And you should, too. Listen. Scott, you do whatever you want. Okay. I'm going to do the first round today, and we'll save round two for next time. So we have some other stuff to talk about and some emails to read.

But so far, it's Trout, Betz, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Aeronado 5, Machado 6, J.D. Martinez, 7, Max Schurzer, 8, Bryce Harper, 9. Jose Al-Tubez 11. So who's 10? Alex Bregman. Alex Bregman, I'm going to say it, not a first round pick in a Roto League. Not a standout in any category. Okay, he only had 31 homers, 105 runs, 103 RBI. He was basically, he was kind of a light version of Bill and Aaronado.

Not a standout. I feel like he can hang with those big. guys in terms of power now. He was better than Aeronado in Roto this year, right? I would guess not. Yes, he would. I would guess so. No, he was not. No, no, no, no, not even close. Close, close, but no he was not. Okay, so final answer. What is the actual answer? What is the actual answer? The answer is no. Did Bregman's 10 steals put him ahead or no? No, it did not. Okay. All right. According to our Roto formula. You got the dual eligibility there. And I think he had Bababip luck for the season as a whole.

It was mostly in the first half. In the second half, you know, it normalized and he hit for, I think he hit well over 300 in the second half. But the first couple months of the season, he really got burned to the Babbup. And remember, I think around the end of May, we were kind of asking what's wrong with Alex Bregman. The answer was, of course, was nothing. Right. But he's somebody who we should expect to hit 300 right around there. year and in year out.

He had 83 total extra base hits. It wasn't just the home runs. I think he led the majors and doubles too. He had more walks and strikeouts, which of course is a bigger deal in points leagues, but it's a really stinking big deal in points leagues. He looks

like somebody who's going to be in the MVP voting for years to come, somebody who's top five MVP finisher over and over again. Man, it's a good point. All right, so if you think he's going to be a 300 hitter, then that changes things. I hate the first round.

Like, if I don't get a top five pick or so, I'm not liking it. I just see too much similarity between late first round and second round, which we'll get into, obviously, a little bit later. Number 12 is Trey Turner. Mike Trout, Mookie Betz, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Aeronado, Machado, Machado, J.D. Martinez, Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Tray Turner. I will say Tray Turner is probably the one who would drop the most based on format,

which isn't to say he's not a stud in points leagues, but it's not what makes him a stud is more valuable in Roto leagues. I'd probably go like Chris Sale to round out the first round in a points league. Trey Turner is fascinating. Because he's been really good, he's been elite, while also failing to live up to our expectations every single year. Or at least the last two years. I would say that Bryce Harper is basically that.

He's kind of lived up to expectations once, whether it's injury related or performance or whatnot. Well, yeah, but like last year Harper lived up to expectation. Not in Roto. 2017, he did. If he'd stayed healthy. Yeah, he just got hurt. Yeah, that's tough. But that same thing with Turner.

Not last year, but the year before, right? No, Turner, Turner, I think He is such a, like, this is two years in a row now Where he's shown himself to be a poor line drive hitter. So I'm not sure There can be that expectation He's going to be a great source of batting average.

And if he's not the 70s steel guy, we were hoping he'd be. I mean, he still led the NLN steals, but it was more like 45. Then he's not really, you know, you're talking about a 280 12 to 15 homer guy with 40, 45 steals. Well, he just hit 19 home runs. It wasn't 162 games. How many homerers did I say? 12 to 15.

Yeah, maybe more like 15 to 20. Yeah, I mean, it's just a matter of our 43 steals. Is 43 steals the new like 60 steals? No. Not quite, but it doesn't feel more like 50. he could easily get over 50. He could easily get 60. I mean, he's so good.

But you can't draft him expecting that. Like a lot of people were when he was going third overall this past season. Yeah, to remind everybody, Trey Turner had 46 steals in 98 games in 2017. Amazing. He was 33 and 73 games in 2016. Yeah, amazing pace. So if we combined 2016 and 17, his 162 game pace,

baseball reference was 75 steals and 23 home runs and that's amazing but it dropped last year yeah that's what I'm saying like I don't like it that's why if I see Jose Altuvae available at 11 oh my gosh I'd be pumped up about that

he at least he does at least stand out in terms of skill set Jose Altuvae that's the one thing I will say yeah and he also battled an injury this year yeah he's so good and then maybe it's maybe it's taking a pitcher. I don't know. I just don't know. We'll talk about the rest of the top 24 next week. Okay, let's take a look at some baseball stuff. First of all, any predictions, fellas? Any predictions for the LCS's? I think we're going to see a rematch, World Series rematch, Astros and Dodgers. The Dodgers, it was, they led the NL and run differential.

year, which in theory means they should have been the best team in NL. And if you look at their Pythagorean win-loss record, they should have won like 103 games. And their roster says as much as well. It was like I felt like watching them in the Braves face off in that first round, it was like watching the like conference USA team that's shocking everybody with an undefeated record go up against the SEC runner-up in a bowl game and just be completely outmatched

because that's what it seemed like. Brian Dozier's like the last guy off the bench for the Dodgers and he got MVP votes the last three years. It's they're the one NL team even counting those that have been eliminated now who I thought really stood a chance of winning the World Series. Maybe I'm not giving the Brewers enough credit, but man, they're going to have to lean so heavily on their bullp

Yeah, they have home field advantage. They can get past the Dodgers. I don't give them much chance of beating the Astros of Red Sox if they do. I completely agree with that. So you're going to take the Dodgers and the Astros, Chris? I don't have a coin. For the A.O. or for both? What's that?

For the A.L. or for both? Yeah, I mean, it's the baseball playoffs, guys. Well, get a boring answer. The best team wins like 53% of the time. Who cares? What a boring. What a lame answer. Fine, I'll give an answer.

The Dodgers and the Astros because the Red Sox are the Yankees. What is that? And I root against them. This is like a riddle. I think that I, uh... It's the Spider-Man meme. I guess I should pick the Astros. These two teams are great.

the heavyweight championship fight. Yeah, I guess I'll go with the Astros. I love Sale versus Verlander in game one. That's awesome. Sale's not quite himself. Sale? He's not quite there. He's pretty damn good, but like the best version of Chris Sale would have shut

down the Yankees for eight innings, not for five innings. Their bullpen is like three guys that they depend on. So nobody goes eight innings in the playoffs. off that, come on, what year is this? You Ozzy Gion? How about that? Leaving in John Garland for eight innings?

What's going on? No, I'm Aaron Boone, leaving in Severino for three innings, and then going out for the fourth. Oh, terrible! Amazing. The stupidest thing. From the first pitch of the freaking game was terrible. And they left him in for the third,

which was a huge mistake, and they left them in the fourth. You know who wouldn't have done that? Joe Girardi. My thing is, like, I don't like the Red Sox, but the only silver line to the Red Sox winning that series was the Yankees lost. You know, here's the thing about the Yankees haters. You're so...

They're correct, pathetic, objectively? So pathetic. So envious. You have such sports envy. No, no. You have such sports. Oh, believe me. Hate, hate. You have sports envy.

I would not want to be the Yankees. You have sports envy. If you had been born a Yankees fan, your life would be 3% better than it is now. Like, it's only sports, so it's not 20% or 50%, but add an extra 3% of happiness to your life, that would be you as a Yankees fan. No, Adam, because you know why? You know what the proof is? What? Actually, it's probably not proof because I'm a bitter, angry little person.

But I grew up in Miami during the heyday of the University of Coral Gables's championship runs. I didn't root for them. and I'm fine. The University of Coral. No, you're not fine. That's the point. If you were a Hurricanes fan, you'd be much happier. Oh, I definitely not.

I know many Hurricanes fans. And look how much happier I am than you are. Well, you're also a Yankees fan. Yeah, I know. And a Giants fan. I know. New York Giants. Yeah, yeah, I know.

You know, it's interesting, though. I'm trying to remember what tweet I saw from. One of the Angels beatwriters, I think it was. He was talking about his 15-year-old son was rooting for the Yankees in the playoffs because all the other team hasn't seen the Yankees win. Yeah. Oh, that's funny.

They did win in his lifetime, but I guess not compared to like the Red Sox winning three, the Giants winning three, you know, who else is won two? No, Cardinals maybe? Well, just the fact that the Cubs have won. Did the Cardinals win? Two? It's just funny that you can go to high school-age kids, and they don't think of Yankees as the team that always wins. The Yankees, yeah, it is true.

They won in 2009. It's not that long ago. All right, anyway, you want to go to a Red Sox Astros game? Dodgers' Brewers game. You want to go on that stupid slide in the outfield? That's a cool slide. I'll give it the props to the slide. Use the Seek app.

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$20 off your first purchase promo codes, fantasy. So download the Seat Geek app and use the code fantasy. You'll get $20 off your first Seek geek purchase one more time. The code is fantasy. All right, we're going to look at some of the eliminated teams, and I want a player that's going to be better and a player that's going to be worse next year. And let's start with everybody's favorite, the New York Yankees. Chris, who's going to be better? Who's going to be worse for the Yankees?

It's actually, there's a lot of choices here for better, but there's only one choice for worse. That's Miguel And Duhart. That's who I had, too. And, like, I've been talking about this on Twitter over the last couple of hours, hours and it's like it's not that I don't like Miguel I don't believe you've been talking about that for two hours on Twitter I just I just well I was inspired by this the the prompt that Adam gave us um I look at it a bit

like Jose Martinez where if he's not a real if he's just a good hitter I don't know if he plays every day. And I think there's a chance that he's just like a low 800s OPS bat, in which case he might be a five game a week guy because he's so bad on defense. There's talk that they'll move him to first base. Except Luke Voigt has been awesome. Like I've been saying they can't go with Luke Voight next year. I'm not sure that they can't go with Luke Voight next year. And then there's also the possibility, oh, we can't have Gary Sanchez catch anymore. Let's move him to first base. If they, They do sign Manny Machado, something big has got to happen there.

Yeah, they'll be a trade. It's a big room for all these headers. I think that when we talk about sophomore slump and Duhar will hopefully, rightfully, win the rookie of the year. Sophomor Slump, the thing that we kind of established was like, does the guy have something to fall back on? Does he walk a lot? Does he steal bases? And Duhar doesn't do either of those things. He had 25 walks in 149 games.

Now, he did hit a ton of doubles. That's really nice. But, yeah, I mean, that's the guy that I... I mean, I guess I could see myself drafting him because I don't really think his value is going to be that high. I'm not sure that many people are going to be buying into it. So if I'm like the last guy to take a third baseman and it's in Dewhard, then fine. But he won't be as good as he was this year. Third base is probably the deepest position next year.

And, you know, I wasn't trying to really downplay. Andrew Har, when I did my third base rankings, he only came out 15th for me. So what is that in a draft? You're talking about a later on. Probably double-digit round. Yeah, yeah. All right, so, Scott, you got better and worse? Better and worse.

I'm going to say that worse is going to be. Somebody didn't do his homework. Who? You didn't do your homework. That's fine. No. Well, excuse me, I take offense to that. Am I wrong?

I did my homework. Okay. I did my homework. I think worse, if I can go with a nod Yankee. Well, if I can go with somebody who's destined for free agency, is J-Hap. Oh, interesting. Orch's going to be J-Hap. Just because he was so out of his mind good in terms of strikeouts, like just complete departure from what he had done previously in his career.

And that was when he was with Blue Jays, when he was. with Yankees, both destinations in 2018. And I think the reason for it, really the one time he showed that kind of potential was that one-third of the season he had with Pittsburgh. I think it was in 2015. And in both instances, he threw up his four-seam fastball a lot more than usual. He doesn't have a great swing and miss pitch, except the four-seem fastball does get a higher rate than most pitchers do. But we didn't see him follow through on that the next year when he had so much success with it in Pittsburgh and we don't know where he's going to wind up. He is in my top 40 starting pitchers, but I don't think I'm going to have a lot of shares in him next year.

My one counter to that would be this is a guy who's basically had a 360 RA for five straight seasons now, right? Four straight seasons. And nobody ever wants to draft him. Is that going to change this year? He was like a 200 pick last year. If it doesn't change this year, and like I said, I have him in my top 40 pitchers. I expect him to go among the top 40 pitchers. If it turns out 50 pitchers are off the board and nobody's taking a hat because he's a 36-year-old with an uninspiring track record, that I'll happily take him.

Happily. He was number 8.P 243 last year on Fantasy Pros. Yeah. Like he's just, he has probably outperformed his draft value four years. in a row now. Okay, so Scott says half will be worse. We say in Duhar will be worse. I say Severino will be better.

There has to be some type of logical explanation, perhaps fatigue. The innings were pretty high. Last year, why he just could not throw his slider down the stretch. Not down the stretch for the final month of the season. But when he's right, Severino, I think we all probably believe he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. So I hope you get a discount on him. Any other candidates for better? There's a lot of kids.

Yeah, Gary Sanchez is the most obvious one. The Yankees were my World Series pick coming into the year, and when you consider all the players, all that went wrong for their players, like, they still had like a 600 winning percentage. I mean, they won 100 games. This core is going to win a World Series. It's just a matter of four.

You never have a-not. Probably not. Probably not going to win a World Series? No. That's a bold claim. Only 53% of the time the best team wins. You heard that, right? Exactly.

So if we want another player, he's going to be better. I think Gary Sanchez is a good choice. Gary Sanchez might be the choice for baseball for me. Yeah? Why? What are the indicators? I think 184 Babbitt this season. Now, he did hit a lot of infield fly balls and the plate discipline got worse,

but there's too much talent here for him to be a 200 hitter. It's not like he strikes out 36% of the time. He's not Joey Gallo. There is more volatility in his profile than perhaps I accounted for coming into the season. But if you talk about upside, there's nobody at the catcher position who's close. Like, he could have a Mike Piazza season. Okay. Let's move on.

Let's talk about other teams here. So how about the Indians? Who's going to be better on the Indians? Who's going to be worse? Scott White. Better on the Indians next. next year is going to be, let me think about.

I told you. Go to Chris. Chris. Chris. I didn't make it all the way. I will give you Shane Bieber. Oh, okay. Who had a 455 ERA, but borderline elite peripherals,

926K per 9, 1.81 walks per 9, decent ground ball rate added all up. It's a 323 FIP. and a 345 Sierra. I have some concerns that he might just be the kind of pitcher who underperforms his peripherals because he doesn't have overpowering stuff and works a lot in the strike zone, and that type of pitcher can tend to get hit a lot despite peripherals that suggest they should be better. But there's also a chance that, you know, with the way this Indian staff has developed pitchers, that he goes nuclear and becomes a sub three R a guy.

Okay. Yep. Yep. That's a good one. That's probably the best one. I'm going to go with kind of a, it feels like kind of a cheat answer, but I'm going to go with Bradhand because my guess is today with Corey Kluber or with Corey, Cody Allen, destined for free agency. That brand, Brad Hand is the, um. closer

the yeah the so I was looking for the word but basically there will be no one contending with him for the closer role it's going to be his

all to himself and Miller's a free agent too right I'm not sure I'm not sure but basically like I could see how they

kind of morph him into that Andrew Miller role um nope yep Yeah, Miller is a free agent too. Yeah. But they would have to bring in somebody else because there's nobody else who looks like clothes or material in the Indians bullpen.

And in fact, I think that was a big reason why they traded for him since he was locked up long term. They were kind of not just getting help for this year, but forecasting for the future. All right. So who's going to be worse on the Indians? I don't think, I actually think Bauer and Clevenger are legit. I think there's a good chance Bauer would have won the Sy Young Award if he hadn't broken his leg. after the All-Star break. Because I like what both of them did.

So I guess, I guess maybe, well, I'm going to go with, you know what, I'm going to go with Edwin and Carnaccio to be worse. And he was already worse than he's been. He's been a little worse each of the past two years. The strikeouts keep going up.

He's on the wrong side of 35. Eventually, it's just going to drop off a cliff. I'm not predicting that'll happen next year, but you have to account for it. and, you know, he only got to 32 home runs this year. So, it was next year he had, he's a 240 hitter with 28 home runs. I mean, then you're talking about him not really even being worth starting in standard-sized leagues. Yeah.

So that's my pick. All right, Incarnacion will be worse. Chris, who's going to be better, Chris? On the Indians. I already answered that question. Shane Bieber. Oh, I'm sorry. Who's going to be worse?

Trevor Bauer. is the obvious answer. He has a 221 ERA. His previous career best was 418. He did make improvements. I'm not going to deny that. But he also had a 6.2 home run to fly ball rate. And anytime someone makes this kind of dramatic improvement,

you know, when the Tampa Bay raise are eliminated from the playoffs, I'll also say Blake Snell will be worse. That doesn't mean I think he's going to be bad. I think he's probably more like a low 3 ZRA. Okay, right. So what do you think about what's Bauer ZRA in your opinion? 325, 330? Still very good.

Nope, you're wrong. It's better than that. It's better. It's 305 or better. It was 221. Yeah, you're right about that. You're wrong about what it will be. Oh, okay.

Yeah. I mean, I'm not sure. And I know that sounds silly because that's like a run difference in ERA. But if he is 325 ERA guy with an ace workload, yeah, he's going to be awesome. One of the best striking. Like, he's a top 10 starting pitcher in fantasy. Right.

Yeah, that's the thing. is that, like, I don't want to say, like, he's going to be worse. He's also going to be good. Now, if you want to go Galaxy Brain on it, this is a guy who always tinkers. Every offseason, he's going in the lab, and he will very loudly tell you that he is the smartest person in the world, and nobody has ever been more interesting or smarter than Trevor Bauer, there's a chance that he just tinkers a bit too much and screw something up. He's going to change something.

That's a valid point. This is who Trevor Bauer is. He's going to change something about his game because he's constantly looking for improvements. And there is a chance, especially given the fact that his track record before this season was just mediocre. That he takes a step back and doesn't keep all the games that he made this year. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't bet on him having a 220 year either. Chris, are you jealous that Trevor Bauer is smarter than you are? Is that what this is all about?

Trevor Bauer is most assuredly not smarter than me. Wow. Than I, I think you meant to say. All right, let's go to Colorado. Chris, you tell me who's going to be better. Scott, you tell me who's going to be worse. I want to make sure we save time for some emails. He was correct there, by the way.

No. Yeah. No, it's not. Yes, it is. No. Trevor Bauer is not smarter than I. Not smarter than me. No, than me.

If you finish the sentence, you would put the word am at the end. Trevor Bauer is not smarter than I am. You would not say Trevor Bauer is not smarter than me is. This is not the object of a preposition. First of all. I thought it was. First of all, am I wrong? I don't think so.

Grammatic pedantry in the spoken word is an extremely bad look. Colloquialisms are fine. And popular usage says, that it is fine to end a sentence that way. Man. I'm sure someone's going to tell me about it. I'm not sure.

Look, if we're going to nitpick here, there are a lot of ways. This is a bad, this is a bad. I think I might be wrong now that I'm looking on Google. I think I might be wrong. This is a bad, this is a bad can of words. This is,

this is a bad can of worms to open because we all rely on colloquialisms and informal language, and if we're going to start policing this, it gets very ugly, very quickly. That's what I'll say. Having said that, only between Trevor Bauer and I,

only one of us has sliced their finger open during a playoff game that I was supposed to pitch while tinkering around with a drone. And it was not the least 5'10 and overweight. Who's going to be better on Colorado, next year. John Gray. That Bravo. That's what I had to. Yeah. It's the obvious one and, you know, we're going to keep chasing this until it happens.

Okay. Scott, who's going to be worse on Colorado? Oh, now we're now we're alternating, huh? Yeah, I thought I made that clear. No, I thought we were each doing a good... Yeah, we're running. We run out of time. Run out of time. All right. DJ LaMaheyes probably not going to play in Colorado anymore and his success in fantasy was so dependent on him having the Coors Field inflated Babbip that I think it's fair to say he's going to be worse.

Okay. Yeah, I have Kyle Freeland. Obviously. Yeah, Kyle Friedland will be worse. I don't even know. Sorry, you pick the wrong answer. No, it's okay. Apologi. Scott.

Thank you, Scott. Thank you, Scott. All right, Atlanta. Scott, do you want better or worse for Atlanta? I would like to do whatever goes second. Okay, Chris, give me who's going to be worse on Atlanta. Scott could take the better of Atlanta. I'll go with the same exact thought process and logic that brought me to Freeland and Bauer and same Mike Fultenevich.

It's not that he's going to be bad. Well, then give me someone who's going to be bad. Be bold. Trash him. Trash him. Throw him in with Bearclaw. I mean, Nick Barkakis. Nick Barker.

Just save our Kegis. Oh, this is a tough one because, like, How about a player who's going to be worse than what people draft him as? Yeah, that's what I mean. I don't need to know somebody who's the RA is going to go from 250 to 305. I need to know who's going to be a bust next year. Ronald Acuna. I have seen him go as high as third in these early mock season drafts.

Overall or round? Third overall. You can't trust those drafts. No, but these are drafts that people are playing out. This was a, no, this was an NFBC. Like, people have money on that. I know, but they're so over the top, I feel like. That's fine, but this is a kind of player that people are going to go over the top for.

He's probably going to end up first round in ADP next year. And I totally get it. I am very excited about Ronald McCune. He is awesome. But we saw this year. Yes, he figured it out. But there were stretches where he was not that good. And it's because they're, you know, he's.

going to strike out a bit too much. He may not steal as much as we hope. If I can get him at the end of the second or early third round, I love it. But if people are going to start taking him 10th overall or fifth overall, because the upside is, you know, he could be anything. He'd even be Mike Trout. He's probably, and I can kind of say the same thing about Ozzy Albies, except that he kind of sucked from May 1st on.

So I don't know. I'm not sure how high he's going to get drafted. Okay. If Acuna does have an ADP in the first round, you're right. I like him at the 2-3 turn, which is what you said too. I guess it's just... I have a hard time envisioning people drafting him over like Trey Turner and Alex Bregman next year, but we'll see. Scott, who's going to be better for the Braves?

I think you could go with a lot of their young pitchers. It would be hard to single out just one because they're all so unproven. But I think you can make a good case for Ozzy Albi's being better. He was really a disaster in the second half. And it's mostly the left side of the plate that he struggles with. I have a lot of faith in Kevin Siteser as a hitting coach. He actually made an adjustment to Acuna's stance that helped him have that explosion over the final two months. and I think

there were some interesting tidbits brought up during that postseason series about how from the left side of the plate Ozzy Albi's the bat he uses as the heaviest on the team and this is a guy who's like 5 foot 7 he basically just throws the barrel at it and he's trying to hit home runs

which isn't a great approach and shouldn't be one he has because he's such a good contact hitter yeah I just worry he learned some bad habits in the first couple of months of the season because his plate discipline actually if you look look at his 2018 season and compared to Rognetto Dora's breakout season, it's the Spider-Man

meme. Like, they are the same person. And that's not necessarily saying that Ruegnet Ador is Ozzie Abbe's future, but the plate discipline is bad. He doesn't strike out much, but he just didn't walk at all. I think that it likely was bad habits. I mean, he was an extreme power hitter the first couple months, and that he wasn't a power hitter at all in the minors. I'm not saying he can't be a 20 homer guy in the majors. That's kind of what everybody becomes who has a certain base level of talent and elevates the ball enough. But I think if it is bad habits, that's all the more reason to think it's something he can correct. Sure.

You know where you learn those bad habits, by the way? Where? From Trevor Bauer. Oh. Definitely. He's not smart. Not smart at all. I didn't say he's not smart.

Let's read some emails. Here's an email from Doug in Astoria, Queens. Dear Berwick and Thoros. I don't know them. I don't know them at all. Berwick and Thoros. They're from Game of Thrones. Who the hell are they in Game of Thrones?

Do you think I'm supposed to memorize all those people's names? It's the guy who holds the door. I bet they're dead now. That's not true, Chris. Yeah, it is. No. After winning my points league consolation toilet bracket, I was rewarded with the next year's first round pick.

For the first time, it's a keeper league. For the first time in seven years, Trout is available, and Trout can be kept for another six years. I thought this pick would be a no-brainer, but should I actually consider Jose Ramirez, given his age, durability, durability, position eligibility, K-rate, and overall stats? No.

No? Yeah, it's not like Trout's old. Is he that much older than Ramirez? Two years maybe? It's hard to envision anything going wrong. He's 27, Trout is. So, yeah, like a year or two, older than Ramirez. It's hard to envision anything going wrong for him.

He's been the best player in baseball just about every year since he arrived in the majors. And in the years he wasn't, he wasn't far off. And like Ramirez just entered that discussion this year. So Trout's one year old. Why Why get, why expose yourself to risk needlessly? Trout is, I mean, when all said and done, he might be up there with like Ruth and Trout and Ruth and Bonds and Williams is like the best players of all time. He's on that kind of pace.

All right, here's Joey. Hey, Cuervo Altova, Fernandez, and Abraeux. Jose's. Yeah. First year in a head-to-head category is Keeper League. I'm having trouble projecting which players to keep. I need three of these. Altuve, it's five by five.

Altuve, Acuna, Kershaw, Sail, Scherzer. Pick three. It's probably Altuve and then Say it. Excuse me, Sailing Scherzerzer. We're keeping... Is it keep forever?

Keep forever? If it's keep forever, then you probably have to keep Akunia and I would throw out Scherzer. But if it's just... For 2019, I think it's Altuvae's sale and shares. All right. From Justin.

Yeah, I agree. Justin can only keep five of these guys. Which two should I trade for a decent minor leaguers? So he wants to know who to trade. Machado, Stanton, Blackman, Cole, Kershaw, Karrasco, Granky. Machado, Stanton, Blackman, Cole, Kershaw, Krasko, Granky. I would trade Kershaw. Yeah, me too.

Do you have Kirchall lower than Carrasco? No, I just think this might be your last chance to get a massive haul for Clayton Kershaw. I expect him to get a bigger haul than Carasco or Granky Wood. And I'm not sure. I have Kirchow ranked ahead of both of them for next year, but not by a huge margin. I think they're in the same tier. I would also say Blackman, for the same reason. I mean, he's on the wrong side of 30.

Yeah, he's going to leave Colorado potentially in the next couple years. They just sign him. Oh, you know what? No, you're right. We've done this before. Look at Adam. Trevor Bauer. Trevor Bauer would have known that.

Probably not. All right, so trade Kershaw and still you can trade Blackman. Right? Yeah. Yeah, I was, I did look at his final stats and he was a disappointment. But that disappointing season was like Mani Machado. It's pretty good, pretty good. Last email is from Luke in Seattle.

Another year, another victory for the fighting Dantra Willis for MVP's. I attribute my victory to a two-pronged approach in the final week. Listening to you and adding David Dahl and having the stones to drop Carlos Correa for David to start Mr. Dahl. Go Phil's Metzuck. Okay, I'm fine. Half right. I'm fine with half.

I'm fine with ending the show on that. I like it. I like the enthusiasm. Luke from Seattle. Scott and Chris, good stuff today. Next week we look at round two of Scott's 2019, top 24. See you later, everybody. Have a great weekend.