Fantasy Baseball Today - 10/18: 2019 Second Round; Nervous About Aces? (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 18, 2018

Was it a HR!? We weigh in on the controversial ALCS call. Then Adam tells you why three of the postseason aces make him nervous in 2019 (5:00) and why that might change his draft strategy. Scott tells you why you shouldn't worry too much about one of these SPs ... Breaking down Scott's #13-24 in his Top 24 for 2019 (22:00). We've got a couple of SPs at the top of this list, plus a couple of Rockies, a couple of Yankees and a couple of first basemen ... Who will be better and worse on CHC and OAK (42:20)? Is Jon Lester going to be Fantasy relevant next year? What did we notice about Khris Davis' batted ball data? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Sanger. It's Thursday, October 18th. I'm Adam Azer with Scott White on fantasy baseball today. Scott, was it a home run? No, yes, it was a home run. You think so? Not officially, obviously. What would you have ruled?

I do believe what would I have called? Home run? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don't know. I didn't see it in real time. So I didn't have that instant reaction. to reference.

I think it wasn't out. I think he was over the wall. I think it was an out. You think the fan was reaching over the wall? I think so. I don't know exactly. I mean, it wasn't egregious if he was. No, it wasn't.

I kind of feel like there should be no such thing as fan interference, to be honest. Even if he reaches over the wall and interferes with a player? I mean, if it's within arm's reach. Imagine a guy going back to the wall to make a catch and all of a sudden. it like fans reach over like pull his arms back or something like that and you're just like yeah that's cool I haven't thought this all the way through oh the minute but it does seem like if you get close enough that a fan could reasonably interfere um no it's just stop you know this is a terrible scott white take i'm trying to think this through on the fly i'm sorry i think it's a good idea because i don't

Because, like, it's just, it's not worth having that doubt that, okay, maybe, like, because I feel like, I feel like you have to, I feel like awarding the home run when it maybe wasn't a home run isn't as bad as taking a home run away that was. Well, the thing about this fly ball is at least you know that it had the home run distance. I mean, there's no question that if the fans weren't there and bets weren't there, Al Tuve's, That should be all that matters. No, because Bess was going to catch that ball. Right, but once you're in the stands, that's always been the case. Once you're in the stands, it's, you know. Right, but he wasn't in the stands.

That's why it was ruled interference because it looked like the guy. His club was up against several fans. The fan, in my opinion, was reaching over. But it was very close. I mean, what's he supposed to do, lean back? Stay more vertical. We cross the plane. This is why I don't think there should be any such thing as fan interference.

Like, it's one thing if you've got like a line of fans lined up and they're holding one, there's like a line holding, each one holding the guy in front of them, and the front guy's holding a guy's shirt, and he's leaning over so that his thighs are on the wall and he's trying to interfere with the player. Like, overt. That's one thing. But, like, no, this is. Oh, man.

The ball was in the fans' territory. The glove was in the fans' territory. I don't think so. I think it was still in the field of play. That's why it was fan interference. Honestly, if he were like two inches a little bit deeper, if he let that ball travel a little bit more, it's a home run. But I think he reached over a little bit.

But Scott White's just a terrible Scott White take. I'm sad that Chris isn't here to back me up about how bad the, there should be no fan interference take. Participation. That's the way to get people out to the ballpark. I guess it would make those seats very expensive also. Yeah, everybody would want that. Great for ticket sales.

All right, Scott. Let's see what we're talking about on today's show here on the 18th of October. So just want to talk about a few postseason notes, some of the aces that have thrown in this postseason that I think I'm just being very negative about. And I want to share that negativity with everybody. I feel like today's a good day to be negative. I'm going to read some emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

D.D. Gregorius with Tommy John surgery. Matt Chapman hit thumb surgery. And we'll talk about that. Scott White's 13 through 24. As we talked about round one in Scott White's 2019, you know, early top 24. Now we'll look at round two. And who will be worse and who will be better next year for the A's and the Cubs, two teams that were eliminated in the wild card game.

So let's do, I'm a little nervous about some of these postseason pitchers. First, a note. 15 starting pitchers through 200 innings in 2017. 19 starting pitchers last year through 190 innings. So 15 through 200, 19 through 190. I guess I should probably say it backwards. 19 through 190 and 15 of those went up 200. This year, 23 starting pitchers through 190.

So four more than the previous year. But two fewer reached the 200 inning mark. Oh, no, it's basically a wash. But still, 200 innings is rare. And as I look at Chris Sale and what he's doing in this postseason, illness aside, I look at Clayton Kirshaw and even Cory Klobber. I'm nervous. I don't know if I should be.

But the arm injuries for sale, just velocity down. More like two previous seasons because his velocity was way up this year. I guess we can take a case by case. but Kirshah, you know, Kirshah had a great start on Wednesday. 18 swinging strikes, amazing. His previous start, he didn't, I don't think he got one swinging strike on a slider. And he's just been kind of disappointing this year. And then Klobber, knee injury.

More on him in a second. I'm a little nervous about these guys, Scott. I don't want to monopolize all the time. Should I be nervous about Sale, Kershaw, and Klob? Yeah, there are some warning signs for each. Sure. they're all three in my top six pitchers still but the reason kershaw isn't number one like he's been for what feels like a decade is because he showed some signs of age this year it wasn't just a d l stint

for the fourth time in five years it was velocity was down a couple miles per hour swinging strike rate was down k per nine was below nine uh and these are not things we've seen from kershaw before he's kind of had to adjust a little to compensate for having less fastball velocity in his recent postseason start which was a gym that was on Wednesday he threw his slider more than any other pitch he had 19 swinging strikes in the game which is good of course but it was kind of a Patrick Corbyn approach instead of what we've historically seen from Kershaw in the past because the fastball just isn't what It used to be.

And it factor in the expectation he's not going to go 200 innings because of back issues or whatever else. And he's just outside of the top five for me. Still an ace, but not clearly not in a class of his honor. I'm not taking him in the first two rounds. Okay. I haven't met the end of the second. Yeah. Sale.

Yeah, sales is not himself right now. You know, the first start against the Yankees was five in a third. third, five innings, two runs, two walks, eight strikeouts. Looks great, but consider, I'm pretty sure it was five scoreless innings, and then he couldn't make it through the sixth. And then his next start against the Astros, he threw an inning in relief against the Yankees, and was great. But his next start against the Astros, four innings, two runs, four walks, five

strikeouts. He's not himself right now, which is fine. He dealt with some injuries late in the season. He's got the illness now, and again, I'm not going to hold that against him. But I am concerned about the shoulder injuries late in the year and all the time he missed, and the fact that his velocity is down significantly from what it was earlier this year. Yeah, this one doesn't concern me as much because there are questions about whether the shoulder injury was severe enough to cost him as much time as it did in the first place, or whether the Red Sox just decided to play it ultra cautiously since they were running away.

You know, had the best record in baseball. We're on a record pace for a while there. So I think Sale is clearly the number two pitcher heading into next year. He's not as durable as Max Scherzer, and this isn't the first year he's shown it. But he's as dominant inning for inning. So, I mean, if, like, the risks for him, I think are inherent to all starting pitchers more or less. Yeah. Fair.

And then I don't know why I'm worried about Kluber. you know, I think he just wasn't as consistent down the stretch last year. After the All-Star break, Kluber had a 310 ERA, and 17 walks to 90 strikeouts in 81 and a third, and 14% swinging strike rate. Absolutely outstanding numbers. But one thing that he had in his 81 and a third were five non-quality starts. And that is actually a big deal for Corey Klover, because this was a guy who may have set a record for most starts allowing three or fewer runs. They weren't necessarily all-quality starts.

but he was basically a quality start every single time out. Also, if you look at the schedule, it was a joke, which was the case for all Indians pitchers in the second half, basically. But he had one game against the Red Sox. He wasn't very good. And then in the postseason, he got crushed at Houston. And he was really bad in the 2017 postseason, and he comes out. He wins 20 games and has a 289 ERA and 222 strikeouts. So I don't know.

He was definitely less effective pitcher than last year. Last year was kind of an outlier for him in terms of effectiveness, in terms of strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, all of that. He began emphasizing his curveball more than ever last year and kind of pulled back from that this year. I don't know why. Obviously, didn't have the same pitching coach anymore because his pitching coach was now the Mets manager.

But he wasn't the extreme badmissor he was in 2017, and that makes him a little more vulnerable. That being said, I mean, he's been an ace caliber pitcher for five years now, basically, and his numbers this year were much closer to the other four of those years. So, I mean, he still led the AL innings for not having as many quality starts. Obviously, 120 games. Whip was below one, had an AL leading walk rate. there's like there's so few pitchers who are capable of providing that ace workload

as you mentioned with that stat at the beginning of this conversation the fact he's gone 200 plus innings five straight years with you know with quality numbers the rest of the way through there's there's no reason to drop him behind some of the newcomers like Snell Cole But you do have him behind DeGrom

Yeah I do I mean DeGrom was obviously So far beyond Even most aces In terms of effectiveness this year And he's been You know he's been an ace caliber pitcher

Basically since his career started The innings weren't quite On the level of the The clubers and Scherzerzerzer's of the world but right behind him. And I think he took a step into that group this year. Right. I don't think it's going to be one of the situations where we're paying up for DeGrom's best year

and he's going to go back to being like a round four caliber pick, maybe late round three or something like that. I hope he's in Ace Hood to stay. So basically when I look at Seil and Klobler and Kershaw and I personally have my concerns, it does make me as likely as I've ever been, more likely than I've ever been to draft Max Scherzer in the first round. if I have a late first round pick. I've never, I don't think I've ever drafted a pitcher in the first round. And look, Scherzer's not without risk. A lot of where, a lot of innings.

He was injury, he was somewhat of an injury risk going into 2018, ended up being healthy. Yeah, I only had him fourth. You may remember. I don't remember that, but I know he was part of the big four. Yeah. But I love him and I think he's safer than the others in my opinion. Definitely.

Yeah. So I'm more likely to draft him now than I ever was. Yeah, my initial, when I first went through the process of doing this, projecting these first two rounds, he was my original number five overall. And then I talked myself out of it. I dropped him to what did it end up being eighth? Yeah, I think eighth. Yeah. In fact, I'll get your list of one through 12 and we'll review that before we go through 13 through 24.

Email of the day is from Matt in Canada. And he says, I'm hoping I can get your opinion. I'm in a Keeper League where I can keep one of these three sets. of players for the next 10 years at the same cost. The next 10 years, what is the best trio? Your decision will single-handedly determine my level of fantasy baseball enjoyment or despair for the next decade. Oh, man. Are you ready, Scott?

Sure. All right. Matt, just remember, this is the guy who said there should be no such thing as fan interference. Please keep that in mind. Here are your three options. Number one, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rizzo, and Vla. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This is a clear no for me. Harper, Rizzo, and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

But maybe not. Number two, Mookie Betz, Paul Goldschmidt, and Eloy Jimenez. Okay. Number three. Jose Ramirez, Mani Machado, and Eloy Jimenez. And I will review them one more time. Number one is Harper, Rizzo, and Vlad. Number two is Betz Goldschmidt and Elo Jimenez.

Number three is Jose Ramirez, Machado, and Eloi Jimenez. Determine the next 10 years of this man's life. Well, I don't think any is glaringly wrong. Yeah, maybe I was a little too harsh on Bryce, Rizzo, and Vlad. Yeah, I mean, Bryce is one of the youngest players here. And Vladimir Guerrero, I'd rather have him than Aloi Jimenez. It's the only one of the trios where you get Vladdy. I'm leaning toward Ramirez, Machado, and Aloi Jimenez.

Same here. Because they are all prime or pre-prime. Like Goldschmidt is the oldest player here. Rizzo is not that much younger. So, you know, Betz is the best, obviously, but you don't give Vladimir... Like, if you got Betz, Guerrero, and Vladimir Guerrero... I'm sorry, Betz, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero. I might go with that group

But since it's Beck Goldschmidt, I think I'm leaning toward Ramirez Machado and Jimenez. How much better in your mind is Vladimir Guerrero than Elo Jimenez? Well, if in a world where Vladimir Guerrero doesn't exist, Aloi Jimenez is the prospect

everybody's hyperventilating over going into next year. He is a standout of his own right, but Vladimir Guerrero might be the best minor league kidder I've ever seen. Oh, wow. Wow, that's great. All right, let's do some news and notes here. And Matt, good luck in the next decade.

Let us know how it goes. Email us in 2022. D.D. Gagorius had Tommy John's surgery, and there's no timetable for a return. He might miss half the year. He might miss more. Gregorius did miss some time this past season. He played 134 games, finished as the number eight shortstop in points, number seven in Roto, and has had very similar seasons two years in a row.

You know, 268 this year, 287 last year. 335 on base this year, 318 last year. So he walked more this year. 494 slugging this year, 478 last year. So more home runs. He had 27 home runs in 134 games. You know, he's an okay batting average with a lot of home runs, and he'll give you some counting stats.

But he doesn't need to be drafted, I guess, unless you have a lot of DL spots. And what do you think happens with the Yankees? Anything significant here? Well, he's probably going to miss about half the year. There's a chance he could return sooner. I mean, I feel like Glaber Taurus's timetable ended up being sooner, shorter than what they're projecting for Gregorius now. My guess is they play Tora's at shortstop at the start of next year and just fill in at second base for however long they need to before Gregorius comes back. It's a big guess.

Yeah, and it could bring back Neil Walker. Could be. Yeah, and there's that. And Matt Chapman had thumb surgery. He's expected to be ready for spring training. Matt Chapman really broke out this year. Does this do anything to your third base rankings? I mean, you always have to consider it a little harder when a guy's coming off surgery.

But I suspect will be able to guess. more evidence next spring, and I don't really think it's going to be a problem. Mani Machado does not hustle, and he kicks people. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's had runs in the past. I don't know what, like, I've seen takes from people who are surprised to discover this about Mani Machado, that he's kind of an agitator. I love that.

He's like, yeah, I don't run hard. That's just not me. I mean, I don't love that, but I appreciate the honesty, especially when he's going into his free agent year. Or he's a free agent in a few weeks. I mean, that was pretty blatant, though, kicking. Kicking, yeah, Aguilar. Kicking Hesu's Aguilar's ankle like that?

Yeah, dirty stuff. Yeah, that was dirty. I don't like it. And finally, last news item, just learned this just in. Scott White has never seen the movie Halloween, the original Halloween. I haven't. I haven't. I'm thinking about it.

I need you to see it. Here's why. Because off the air, in my own head, I was thinking, I love the movie by it. It's one of my favorites. Does it hold up? Really? Love it, Scott. Just clearly a trendsetter in the genre, and it's amazing.

It's not as good as The Exorcist, but it's great. Does it hold up? I don't think it's scary. I don't think it's going to scare anyone now, but I still think it's good. I still think you'll like it. And you have movie opinions and TV opinions that most closely aligned with my mind. I trust you very much. So I need you to see it.

I need you to report back. I don't want you to tell me off the air. I need you to report back next Thursday on the podcast. On the podcast. And tell me how you felt about Halloween, the original Halloween. All right. Well, now I have to watch it this weekend. I have a homework assignment.

Yeah, it's not long. I don't think it's only like 90 minutes or something. Yeah. Okay. Enjoy it. We'll do that. And all you have to do is turn on AMC because it's permanently odd. Yeah.

Yeah. And then watch. That's where I was playing if you watch it actually. Watch Halloween 3 and then be thankful that you'll never have to watch a crappier movie again. That is the worst movie of all time. Halloween 3. Halloween 3. I mean, pretty much any time these horror movies have sequels, you can be sure they're not going to be good.

Like to get sequels, the original usually has to be pretty good. But then the sequels themselves. There are some enjoyable Halloween. I like to. I like four, five, and six enough. Yeah. Then they all get pretty bad.

But I'm pretty excited about the one that's coming out this weekend. So I'm going to get tickets to see Halloween. I'm not going to have to use the Seekek app for that. However, if I do want to go to a game or a concert or comedy or a theater, everybody, you know where I'm going. I'm going to the Seek app.

And you can save $20 on your first purchase. Use the code fantasy. When you download the Seek app and you search for your event, use that code fantasy. And what's nice about, the C-KeeK app, you open it up, and it suggests events in your area. So let's see, I have a pretty lame area, Scott. I will open it up right now. Oh, it's suggesting some good stuff in the city. Well, there's Vikings at Jets. Elton John. Oh, tonight at Madison Square Garden. Holy cow.

All right, let's click on it. Let's do a live demo. So now I'm looking at the C-Geek app for the Elton John concert, and there are big green dots right in the center. right in front of the stage, and they are $427. So I will not be attending using those seats. However, much more affordable if I go into the upper deck. And I'm not going to go to the concert, but this is how it works. This is a very expensive event. It is what it is.

But you get these green dots. You click on them. You get great values. Seekek makes it really easy to find great tickets, really easy to get to the game or concert or anything, and every purchase is fully guaranteed. And please use the code fantasy. Next time you need to go to an event.

Download the Seekek app or go to Seekiekees. and use the code fantasy. Get 20 bucks off your first Seekgeek Purchaseekeek, life's an event, and we have the tickets. All right, Scott White's 13 through 24. 13 is Chris Sale, 14 is Jacob deGrom. I think we should go back.

Let me go back and get your top 12 real quick. But 15 is... Which I think... Yeah, go ahead. I think at the column, they may be amended slightly from what we discussed on the podcast. So if you're looking at the column...

Okay. Well, it might be a little different. Here's what we discussed in the podcast last week. Trout, Betts, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Aronado, Machado, Kix people, doesn't run it out. J.D. Martinez, 7, Scherzer 8, Bryce Harper, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Trey Turner. So here we go. with Chris Sale, Jacob de Grom, Aaron Judge. So what's the difference between Turner and Aaron Judge, I guess,

that you would have Sale and DeGrom in between number 12, Turner and number 15, Aaron Judge? I think there's a lot more downside for Judge still. He's mostly put those concerns to rest. But then there's the fact that he missed basically the whole second half with a wrist injury. So there's some added injury risk in there as well. I mean, they're completely different players. Trey Turner is mostly up that high for Roto leagues, where steals are scarce. Home runs aren't as scarce.

Obviously, you expect Judge to provide a lot of them, but I still have him going in the second round. I've actually dropped Judge a little, so he's now the sixth pick in the second round instead of the third pick. Oh, okay. So that was one of the changes I made. I think Judge is almost bus-proof. in OBP leagues, in OBP leagues. I mean, was he a bust this year? He didn't look like it until he got hurt.

Only because the injuries. Before the injury, he had a 947 OPS. And he was on pace for 100 RBIs, 115 runs, and even 10 steals. Yeah. So I'd say no. Yeah, almost bus-proofing OBP because what's the concern? The concern is batting average, right? Yeah.

He's going to hit for power. He's going to hit for power, for sure. After Judge, originally, you had Paul Goldschmidt. So who moved ahead of Aaron, Judge? It's more like Judge dropped behind Goldschmidt, Kluber, and Christian Yelich. Okay. So it goes Salle de Grom, Goldschmidt, Kluber, Yelich, Judge? Yes.

All right. Sail de Grom, Goldschmidt, very interesting. He set a career high with 173 strikeouts. We don't like that. He only had seven steals. We don't. like that. He's 31 years old. That's fine.

You got a terrible start. He batted 198 in his first 48 games, and then he had a 1024 OPS in his last 110 games. He was totally Goldschmidt.

Yeah. But, you know what? It's what happened with Edwin-Encarnacion a couple years ago, and it just kept getting worse. It does remind me a little bit of Encarnazioen. Terrible start to the season, career high in strikeouts, that kind of stuff? What do you think about Goldschmidt? Well, one thing that gets overlooked is that entering May, he had a 900 OPS.

So it was really just one awful month in May that makes for a lot of the concerning statistics. If we throw it out, which maybe isn't totally fair, but it's clear something was just wrong with him then. He was the normal Paul Goldschmidt, except for the fact he wasn't a base dealer anymore. That's why he's no longer a top five player. He's more like a top 15 player because it doesn't run anymore. But I think he's clearly the best at his position, and that position happens to be pretty weak. And actually the stat that really concerns me is not May, but it's home road. 238 batting average at home, 12 home runs.

39 batting average with 21 home runs on the road. He got humidored. Yeah, it kind of looks like it. Now, there isn't a lot of consistency among the diamondbacks in general, those home away splits. So I don't know if there's really anything to it. Okay. Good to know. So then after Goldsmith, it was Kluber and then Yelich.

I know Chris Towers would say you're way too high on Yelich. Yeah. Do you think you're way too high on Yelich? What do you have in like 17th overall? Yes, 17th overall for Christian Yelish. Am I way too high on Yelich? I don't think he's going to be as good next year as he was this year. I think if I thought he was going to be as good next year,

he'd be a top eight player as opposed to top 20 for me. It's just a question of whether he hits 25 home runs or 35 home runs, I feel like. And it'll probably come closer to 25, but if you're hitting over 300 with close to 20 steals, That's still second round material. Yeah, and obviously just the ballpark was such a huge help for him. So after Yelich, you have Aaron Judge. I guess I'd probably take Judge over Yelich. But whatev's dog?

Maybe if I didn't get any steals in the first round, take Yelich. Get me, you know, 17, 20 steals, something like that. And, all right, to recap round two. It is Sale de Grom. Goldschmidt, Kluber, Yelich, Judge, and then I'll let you tell me who's next. Justin Berlander. I was a little concerned about Verlander going into this year because there is a track record of guys pitching into the World Series, throwing a ton of innings and struggling the next year, but he's obviously not a human being.

No. So I'm just, I'm done being worried about Verlander. He is the kind of player that, you know, first ballot hall of famer. whenever he does decide to retire, like just a total anomaly for his era in terms of how hard he's able to throw, how late in his career. Because he's going to be 36 on opening day next year.

I think if there's any concern about Verlander, it's just that. But there's been no slippage in the velocity. He's actually been better than ever since joining the Astros. Who cheat. Well, maybe. maybe no it's not fair that's not fair um you have to wonder how all of these guys you have to it's it's it's it's it's you reconsider Trevor bowers accusations when the smartest guy in baseball

smarter than Chris ours when something it goes down like went down uh just the other day with them which is funny because now it's like well they didn't do anything wrong in fact it might have been the red sox who were cheating but we know that we know that we know that we know The Red Sox have cheated before. Every team cheats, as we know. I think that's probably true. Oh, yeah. The Braves certainly aren't clean.

No. We had a guy banned for baseball. So anyway, Justin Verlander, you know, if there were any signs of aging, I'd be more concerned, but there are none whatsoever. So I think he's as safe as you can expect to find that starting pitcher. And then who? Trevor Story. And then who? Blackman.

Charlie Blackman. Yeah, see, Blackman might be a guy that if he's going like 19th or 20th, wherever you have him, 20th? 20th. Yeah, that's 21st, actually. That might be a little, though, for me. Okay. Even with a kind of down year, he was a top seven outfielder. It's just a matter of can he hit 320, 3.30, and I think if he does that, which he's done in each of the

previous two seasons, Blackman hit 291 this year. I think if he gets back to 320, then he's, the hit counting stats will be a little better and he'll be more like a top five outfielder instead of top seven, which makes a difference when you're talking about these a B player. The bad at ball profile was basically the same for him this year. The strikeouts were up a little bit, but the main thing is he just didn't have the usual absurdly high Babbitt that you find for a lot of players who play half their games. course field. It was still on the high side, but it wasn't where it usually is for him. So that's a good

case for him to bounce back. What I'm worried about with Charlie Blackman is he's going to turn 33 next year, which is not young by any position standards. And he was, he rated as a, he was one of the worst defenders in baseball this year. The defensive metrics just plummeted for him. And I worry about those two in conjunction being a pretty clear indicator that, you know, father time's catching up to him. You know, you know who this is going to remind me of, right? Andrew McCutcheon? Yeah, of course. Exactly.

Which isn't a good sign. No, it's not. So why would I be optimistic about Blackman when I've always been the pessimist about McCutcheon? Probably because he did have a really good year. 29 homers, 12 steals, 119 runs. You knew the RBIs were going to go down. The RBIs went down from 104 to 70. And he's not a huge walk guy, whereas McCutcheon is.

So you're right. I mean, those are valid concerns. Obviously, the answer to the question, why not be concerned about Blackman to McCutcheon is, A, he had a great year, and B, he plays a chorus. But you're right, those are definitely concerning things. You probably just to move to a corner out. You know what, Charlie Blackman's war was, according to.

to baseball reference this year. A guy who had a six war last year, which is, of course, very high. What was it? His war was 0.8. That's how bad his defense was. Yeah, that to me is a flaw in war, if I'm being honest. I mean, I'm not sure it isn't, but, you know, just comparing the two years side-by-side. Like, that's pretty shocking.

Yeah, it is. I'm sorry, but offense is just more important than defense. I mean, this is still a player. I'm talking about 21st overall, so I'm not trying to bury the guy clearly. But I think there are valid concerns here. Completely agree. Trevor Story, are you convinced he's going to steal bases next year? No.

If I was, he'd probably be ahead of Trey Turner for me. Wow. See, this is obviously the biggest riser in fantasy. This is like a ninth, tenth, tenth round pick. I don't even remember Trevor Story. and now we're talking about taking him in the second round and he'd be even higher if he were convinced the steals would be there. Yeah, well, because it wasn't just the steals that changed for him.

He struck out at a much lower rate. But doesn't John Carlos Stanton sort of give you a little pause with that? Yeah, I mean, you can't be sure it's a permanent improvement for him. But, I mean, it's a possible 30-30 shortstop playing half his game. at course field. It's pretty good. Yeah, so I mean, you're weighing risks with all of these players,

and I think the risk of him snapping back to being a guy who's on pace for more than 200 strikeouts every year. It's not nothing, but it's not among the biggest risks in this range of players you could draft. Trevor's story was the fourth best shortstop in points leagues. He was the second best shortstop in Roto. Story batted at 291 with 37 home runs and 27 steals. Drove in 108.

Scored only 88 runs. That seems kind of low. And, well, they did have a pretty bad lineup, I guess. But, you know, of course. And he didn't, you know, he wasn't a disaster on the road either. I think it started out that way. But as the year went on, I believe Story was, you know, pretty respectable on the road. I'm going to get to the rest of it in just a second.

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Get your first month of anti-aging for $20 off. Forhems.com slash FBT skin. All right, where we at, Scott? Let's recap where we're at right now in round two. All right, so round two. Chris Sale, Jacob de Grom, Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Klouber, Christian Yellich, Aaron Judges, Sixth Pick, Justin Verlander, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackman. And then we're to pick 10 of the second round, pick 22 overall.

And it's Clayton Kirchall. Okay. I guess I need to see who's going in round three for me to say, I'm not taking Clayton Kershaw. Well, let's finish out round two and see if these are players you'd take over Kershaw. Yeah, I think one of them I certainly would. The other, probably not. It's Freeman and Benintendi or Benintendi and Freeman?

It's actually Freeman and Giancarlo Stanton. Oh. Benintendi got bumped in the revised edition here because he was so bad to end the season. It was, he's actually behind Ronald Acuna because the way they finished the season was polar opposites. Not to speak ill of Benintendi after he made one of the great postseason plays of all time. Are you serious? One of the great postseason plays. It was a great postseason play.

It was a good catch. It was a good catch. In the two seconds, that ball was in the air. I changed my mind whether he had it or not, like six times. I just so wholeheartedly disagree about the greatness of that play. I mean, even the angle that he caught it at, how high the ball was, how low the ball was, how close it was to the ground when he slipped his glove under there. I mean, that's, in a best case scenario, that's a trap most of the time.

But he managed to get his glove under there. And the thing is, because he committed to the dive, if it rolls to the wall, all three runs score. and the game's over. The wall, the wall is, it's 150 feet away from home plate. Okay, but he would have either had to get up or the center field leader if he had to cut across to grab it. I thought about that. Because there was two outs, obviously. I thought about that, but I don't agree because I think if he didn't get it, it probably just, like, hits him.

The ball wasn't exactly scorched, as I recall. I only saw the replay. But I think, I think it, like, if he doesn't catch it, I think it, like, hits him and falls in front of him. and the game's probably tied. It was it pretty hard. It was it pretty hard. Like, it looked hard off the bat. Off the bat, it was like, okay, it depends where the left fielder's position.

I got to see this replay now. I mean, I know Scott's crazy. I know that. You know, I'm crazy. I can understand you calling my... Ben and Tendi ends game four with incredible catch. That's our headline. Take a look at Ben Intendi's game saving grab quote thought I got a good jump on it

It wasn't hit really hard I thought I could catch it I timed it up well Here we go sinking line drop yeah that's a that it's a good catch but it's not you suck Scott Don't even watch Halloween I don't believe a word you say anymore They make that catch all the time now I haven't seen the catch probability on it but 98% I there's a split second before he caught it

I thought okay it's in it's a hit that's the problem you were watching it live I didn't I saw it on replay and I realized this is a good catch and this is not my anti-red Sox like I said it was it was not I believe they made the right call on the Altuvei home run that was not

all right so anyway Freeman and Stanton would I take Freeman over Kersha I would would I take Stanton over Kershaw? Probably. Probably, because I do have a lot of Kershaw fears. Okay. So, okay, so you know what? After all of my bullying,

you put Stanton part of me in their top 24. Yeah, and that's mostly a legacy thing for Stan. He doesn't deserve it based on what he did this year, but of course there's what he did in 2017. There's the fact he's been a first rounder for most of his career. Granted, a lot of that time, homerun power was scarcer than it is today. But even so, I mean, we know there's MVP caliber upside for Stanton.

And I don't know that that's true for really any of the remaining hitters at this point. Either, you know, maybe somebody like Acuna has MVP upside, but he's so young and unproven. Javier Baez, I guess, is going to come close to winning the... NL MVP this year, but with a really low walk rate and reason to believe he totally maxed out his potential this year. Yeah, Stan has the upside that makes him worth drafting at this point still. I'm a little concerned about Freddie Freeman's upside because he kind of went back to being the middling power hitter he was for most of his career than the guy we saw the

the past two years. The guy we saw past two years was kind of a first round bat on a per game basis. You expect a 300 average and he's you know he missed some time with injuries during that stretch but it was a 30, 35 home run pace. He didn't show that kind of power this year.

Well I there are two players that uh that first of all it's pretty crazy that there are only two first baseman in the top 24 but um that tells you something about baseball now. There are two players that we could talk about now that are not here that had been Staples, and that would be a couple of Cubs. So let's look at better and worse.

Who will be better, who will be worse, on the Cubs and the A's, two teams that were eliminated in the wildcard round. So the Cubs got a new hitting coach. They fired Chili Davis, and ESPN, you know, had an article about it, and it was interesting. Chile Davis, I guess one of his goals was to get them to hit to all fields, and they did. But they lost a lot of their home run might. And they're going to make that more of a priority now, I believe. More launch angle stuff. So Bayez had a great year, but the Cubs were disappointing.

Rizzo was disappointing. Bryant played through his shoulder injury. He was terrible for what you drafted him for. Wilson Contreras was awful. Rizzo and Bryant not being in your first two rounds makes sense. Wouldn't surprise me if they're back there in 2019. And Bryant is a guy that I think could just be so much better. It could be.

But I don't really know what to think of them. Because the shoulder issue is kind of vague. It lasted most of the season. It's not one of those injuries that I feel confident in office. season of rest is going to correct. That was a good chance it does. I just don't know. I don't know enough about it.

And, you know, there's also the fact that he didn't hit for as much power as we feel like he should have in 2017 either. He really didn't live up to a first two-round pick that year. He just got more benefit of the doubt then than I'm willing to give him now. Okay. And Rizzo was basically among the most consistent players in baseball. And I still Right at the ship in the second half

Yeah I still think he's a He's a He's a justifiable Second round pick in a points league Because his walk to strikeout ratio 70 walks to 80 strikeouts I mean you compare that to Stanton Who had 70 walks to 211 strikeouts

Obviously Stanton has more upside But I think if you want like a safe player Who's not going to kill you Rizzo is still that guy Yeah Yeah, he is. You could make a case in a points league, especially, to take him over, Stanton. I think you're giving up some upside there, but it's safer.

So who do you think is better on the Cubs next year? Who do you think is worse? I'm going to say Rizzo's better because my concerns are greater for Bryant. Oh, you're just saying as the team as a whole, who is, yeah, okay. So better, I have Wilson Contreras being concerned. better. That's probably the one who's going to gain the most because it's not clear looking at the bad of ball profile what went wrong for him. He looked, he looked by those measurements like the same guy. Obviously, didn't get the same results. I don't know how much his hitting coach

had to do with that. You know, it was, it was pretty much all ISO. He lost power. Yeah. Why? I don't know, But it's not enough on its own to make me think he's suddenly a lesser hitter. All right, Wilson Contreras, yeah. I basically put every hitter, except Javier Baez will be better. And bias might be worse, but that doesn't mean he'll be bad. It's just he probably overachieved. Scott, who's going to be worse for the Cubs? Bias.

Yeah. I feel like it's the only one you could really make a case for here. John Lester could continue to sink into the abyss. I think there's a good chance that happens, actually. Oh, that was my guy. I think Lester, I don't even know if it's a bold prediction. But semi-bill prediction, John Lester is not even rosterable next year. He had a 1-3-1 whip and a 439 FIPP and ended up with a 332 ERA.

Just what we know about pitching and being a successful pitcher right now, he doesn't do any of it. So he could be unrocented. He's going to get drafted, right? He won 18 games with a low ERA. So he's going to get drafted. My hope for him is that he pulls at Cole Hamels and recognizes that he doesn't have quite the stuff he used to and needs to do something with the secondary stuff.

I mean, just, you know, he's obviously been a good pitcher for a long time. So he's used to making adjustments like that. It's just a matter of him having the self-awareness to do it. All right, let's go to the A's. Who's going to be better on the A's next year? I had trouble with this one. So better. Yeah, better's a tough one.

I think you could make a case for a lot of their bullpen pieces because, well, specifically, the one I specifically want to focus on is Jerry's Familia. I think he's probably going to sign to be a closer somewhere. It's a free agent, and he was good enough that he'll, with, with, you know, a long enough track record in the role that I think that's what he'll get this offseason. All right. That's a good call. I couldn't find a hitter that I was like, oh, he's going to be better next year. They were a team of overachievers. They had an awesome year. Very exciting stuff. Took the league by storm in the second half. But you know who did that in 2017, Scott White?

The Minnesota Twins. And I do worry that they are going to be twins like next year. They're not going to have Shamania all year. out for 2019 so that that hurts um i put that chris davis would be worse but this actually was something really interesting to me i'm thinking like he's not going to hit 48 home runs again uh or drive in a hundred and twenty three and i i don't think he'll drive in a hundred and twenty three runs he will definitely hit two forty seven we know that he's done it four years in a row but um i figured well chris davis must have had a slightly higher home run to fly ball rate does he hit like five more home runs than he usually does

He actually had a lower home run to fly ball rate, but he hit a lot more fly balls. And if Chris Davis, I know it doesn't seem like a huge deal, but if he goes from 247 and 42 home runs to 247 and 48 home runs with the maybe 10 more RBIs that come with it or the seven more RBIs, he is two rounds better. Maybe one round better. Maybe I'm exaggerating. But he's better. So that's a little interesting thing there with Chris Davis. Here's another interesting thing about Chris Davis. D.H only to begin next year.

Then he's worse. For fantasy, anyway. Yeah, I mean, how long will it take him to get five games in outfield? That's all it takes to pick up eligibility in season as opposed to the 20 you need to retain it. He played 11 games in outfield this year. Well, then it'll take him half the year. Well, that's assuming they play. play him at the exact same pace they did this year, which I don't think you can assume.

Their outfield's interesting because they ended it with Nick Martini in left field and Ramon Luriano in Center, who both perform well enough that you figure they're going to begin next year in those roles, but neither is a proven commodity or was a particularly highly regarded prospect. there's a chance they could be looking to patch up the outfield at some point next year. You got a guy who's going to be worse on the A's?

Jeff Lowry, I think, is a pretty easy call. He upped his home run total by 9 from the previous year, up his RBI total by 30. He's going to be a free agent, so we don't even know where he's going to play. But the improvements he made,

there's nothing in the bad of all profile to support them, really. he's going to be a 35-year-old free agent who you've got to feel like if he gets off to his low start could just become a reserve you know and this is uh jed lowry lowry was the sixth best second basement in points leagues 11th best in rotisserie leagues now i do want to point one thing out because if he signs, like I don't think he's going to, I don't think he's going to be like a free agent prize this offseason or anything.

I don't think he's going to sign some big deal that really compels the team to keep him in its lineup. But, you know, if he signs with a team that intends to start him, and it's won with a good hitters park, he hit 19 of his 23 home runs on the road this year. Obviously, Oakland's a tough place to hit, and it showed up in his numbers. Oh, what if he goes to Colorado? to replace DJ LaMayhew. Then I don't think I'm going to...

I don't think I'm not going to be willing to say he'll be worse next year. There's a good chance he'll be better. All right, let's read some emails to finish the show. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Here's an email from Scott. Scott says being a cheers guy, as I believe you are also, Friends is completely overrated and not funny. Capitalize not.

I've tried watching a few episodes, and come on, man, it's bad. I think deep down you know this as well. Uh, false. Friends is very funny. I truly believe that Friends is very funny. Feel Good show. Uh, excellent show. No complaints. I mean, it has some legendary moments. Legendary. What's a legendary Friends moment? Pivot. Pivot. I don't remember that one. You don't remember pivot? I can't hear the word pivot the same way anymore. What's pivot? When, I think it's Chandler and, and, and, um,

And Monica, I think, are helping Ross move a sofa up the stairwell. And he keeps instructing them to pivot. But just the way he's saying, like with increasing desperation, it's like, pivot, pivot. Oh, Ross is saying that? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I can hear that. It's pretty good.

Scott's got good impressions. All right, this is from Matthew. Hey, Adam, Scott, and Chris. We took the normal points league CBS scoring, changed a few things. we gave hitters two points for RBIs and two for runs. For pitchers, we swapped quality starts to seven points and wins to four points. 50 batters hit over 600 points, and only seven pitchers scored over 600 points. People invested more on pitching because of their one-game production rather than their full-week production.

Because of this, and it's a daily league, so people could stream during the week. Because of this, would you invest more heavily in pitching or hitting, should we change to a weekly format to prevent spamming or have a pitching limit? I mean, I prefer weekly formats for that reason. I think if it's a points league in particular, you're going to have to legislate pitching some other way. The simplest ways to just do weekly score. Otherwise, you're going to have to limit transactions

or you're going to have to set start limits or something. Daily points league, that is just a big mistake. Yeah. Or you could make weekly pickups. That's one other thing you could do. Instead of having the waiver wire run daily, you only let it run weekly so that they have to commit to at least an entire roster to a roster for an entire week. But weekly scoring is a good way to go. I don't know that I – I mean, I obviously don't like the changes.

I think the standard scoring is the way it is for a reason. But I prioritize pitching, by the way. Well, no, I mean, two RBI and two points for RBI and two points for runs. That's a big boost for hitters. Okay, yes. But if you get a great – but it's also going to mean there are more hitters that are going to score a bunch of runs. But, you know, actually, yeah, I think you're right. Okay, Steele's guys go way down.

and the run producers, the No-Anon Aronados of the world, I mean, he might be the first pick in the draft. I mean, the elite hitters, the ones that you expect to do 90-90 or better every year, in terms of RBI and runs, they got to go for even more of a premium than they do in a standard format. This is Alex from the Great White North. Who should I keep and who should I trade? I can keep five. No year limit. Mike Trout, No one Aeronado, Javi Baez, Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper, Max Buncey, Chris Sale, and Edwin Diaz. Keep five.

All right? All right, Altuve, and Harper and Aeronado for sure, right? Yes. So keep one. And sale. And sale? I think it's an easy five. Okay.

Trout Aronado, Altuve, Harper, sale. Yeah. I'm not sure you're losing anybody that's going to be a mistake. amazing, except maybe bias. But he's the most questionable of the players who have at least shown elite capability. And from, no name here, no name. If his email is good, we'll call him Adam. If his email's crazy and offbeat, we'll call him Scott.

Twelve team head head categories, keeper league. I can keep up to-year. Your opinion of me has dropped so much. much this podcast makes me sad. Pivot, Scott. I can trade as a 12-te-to-head categories Keeper League, and he can keep up to 10 players. I can trade Ozzy Albies for Clayton Kershaw. Should I do that, I don't have great pitching, and the only pitchers on my team

good enough to consider keeping are Tanaka, Flaherty, Clevenger, and Burrios. Pitching not so bad. This may be my best opportunity to get the ace. missing, but is the cost of a 21-year-old potential superstar too much for an aging injury-prone pitcher? Would you trade Albies for Kershaw? Keeping 10. That's right. That's right in the range of how little turnover is happening in your league from year to year.

That's right in the range where I'd at least think about not doing this deal. Think about keeping the long-term asset over the proven stud. but I think it's not quite there. Like if you're keeping 20, then I think you stick with allbies. But a 12th team league where you keep 10, I think you're still more or less taking it year to year. And Kershaw,

I would put money on him being the more valuable player next year. Cool. That is Mrs. Scott White, and we will talk to you next Thursday. I'm Adam Azor, everybody. Have a great weekend. Hooray for Fantasy Baseball.