Fantasy Baseball Today - 11/06: Best and Worst Picks (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 7, 2018

We've got some news and notes including our takes on the MLB Awards and a debate about the elite Catchers (5:45) at the top of the show ... Our favorite picks in the middle and late rounds of our latest mock draft (11:26). Names include Michael Conforto, Corey Seager and Alex Reyes ... How about some picks we didn't like in those same rounds (32:45)? Eloy Jimenez may have gone too early. Same for Miguel Andujar. And what did we learn about OF on today's show? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Today is such a special show that even Chris Towers wanted to be on it. We are so pleased to have Chris join.

me and Scott here on the fantasy baseball today podcast. Scott, are you okay with it? I mean, you've been there every week. You know, you have to approve Chris's appearances. What you have to... Sorry. Michael Kane. I was trying to break out Michael Kane.

I'm not good enough to just whip it out with no preparation. Please don't. I was trying to have Michael Kane join us and make it extra credit. But no, I'm not... No, sir. Okay. sir. Hi, Chris.

I can't do it. Hey, guys. Welcome back. Thank you. Thanks for having me. It's great to beat long time, first time. Favorite and least favorite mid and late round picks from our recent mock draft. Scott and I talked about getting it started last week, you know, the first four picks for all 12 teams and how we constructed the teams.

Now we're going to look at the mid and late round picks and some of our favorites and some of our least favorites. First, let's do some news. And no, it's also if we have time, we will get to Scott's first base rankings, but I did promise you all some emails that I did not read last week that I will read today. So Lance McCullors could need elbow surgery, and that could cause him to miss the entire 2019 season. Scott White React. Yeah, it's not a big surprise.

We were talking about this, I think, a week ago, maybe even two weeks ago. I think the most interesting part is just how, how the Astros kept this under wraps and how they kept the Jose Altuve knee injury under wraps they are becoming super secretive with their injuries in a way we don't normally see in baseball and it's frustrating I hope they are taken to task over it

because it makes our job a lot harder when they do that how about the awards? The awards watch the one that I have they still not given those hours? Nope. Nope. They named finalists for all of them yesterday. It's like nearly December. Christmas. They give them out on Christmas. This is ridiculous. It usually happens in November.

No, it's a Christmas present for baseball fan. No, it is crazy. Like, it should have happened during the playoffs. It's ridiculous. Well, no, because you don't want to take attention away from the games. Oh, nobody cares about that. Nobody cares about the games. Nobody cares about the awards at this point. Yeah, they don't care about the awards enough. My Twitter timeline would indicate otherwise. People care about who's third for the awards, not just who wins. All right. Well, then release it the day, like three days after the World Series.

When Alex Corr is getting beer thrown at them, we should get awards thrown at us. I can't even remember who won the World Series. That's how long ago it was. It was the Astros. The one, the race, election day, the race that I'm really interested in, guys, is American League manager of the year. I am going, I am following the money and going with Kevin Cash. I hope he wins, manager of the year.

Why, he just let a spreadsheet manage for him. I mean, if, I don't feel like traditionally the award rewards innovation, but, I mean, And I don't even know that I've still really that on board with the whole opener strategy. But it certainly got its share of copycaps. And by a more traditional metric, if you could call it that, the raise one more games than anybody thought they were going to. So I think cash would make a lot of sense. That's usually how it goes, right?

It's just whichever team wins more games than we thought they would. Yeah. But Alex Cora, I mean, if you were counting the postseason where he was just, wizard. I have, my feeling is Alex Corr is probably going to win anyway.

Yeah, I think so. But Cash, they won 90 games. They won 90 games in the American League East contending with two 100 win teams. And in a season when,

you know, going back to March, they were kind of the laughing stock of baseball, them in the Marlins. They were kind of lumped together as, you know,

they're just penny pinchers and not trying to win. Right. Yeah, it was impressive stuff. Any race, I think Otani's going to win, but that's... Both Rookie of the Year races are pretty intriguing. I think Kukunia's going to run away with it.

It's a good race, though. The only award, who I'm not totally confident, I know who's winning it, is A.L. Siong. Yeah, I think that's true. I think it's going to be Blake Snell. I don't think it'd be wrong if it was Justin Verlander instead. I don't think Klubers has much of a chance, really. but he's the other finalist. I don't know who's going to win NL manager of the year.

I think it's Nicker. Okay. I don't care. I don't either. Manager of the year, I just don't care. So there's been some talk, let's move on. There's been some talk about a Gary San, not like real talk, but like a, hey, what if they did this talk? Gary Sanchez for J.T. Rayamuto swap.

Chris, as a Marlins fan. Who would you rather them have J.T. Ray Almuto or Gary Sanchez? Gary Sanchez is like four years younger, right? Two years younger. Okay, yeah, I'd rather have Gary Sanchez. Scott, who would you rather have Gary Sanchez or J.T. Ray Almuto? I would rather have... I think I'd rather have Sanchez, too.

Now, if it becomes apparent, he just can't catch anymore, then that obviously changes the equation. The Yankees are talking a big game about... you know, declaring him their starting catcher for next year already. And obviously, as embarrassing as it was for him at times at the end of last season, there was that story about how it may have really been Severino's fault, that the signs were getting crossed. And so maybe...

Every day, every single picture. Well, every time he called Severino. Well, he was not the only one he pit. He struggled with. Also, he's not the only catcher struggling, as we've seen. But he is really brutal. I mean, they keep... I don't remember this being a big issue before this year.

Joel Sherman wrote a pretty interesting column about just the trend of catchers having trouble because it was really magnified with Yesmani Grandal. Pitchers are throwing harder. It makes sense. They're really putting a big emphasis on pitch framing, and that I think he was saying is limiting their ability to block balls because, you know, the way they're set up. there are a lot of factors involved is why the defense seems to have suffered at catcher

sorry to cut you off Chris No, that makes perfect sense Yeah But what I really want to talk about is this This is going to be I don't know if I'm going to be in the minority The majority, I don't know where people are going to stand But I am so, so, so team Gary Sanchez

Over JT Rao Muto in fantasy In fantasy Oh for sure Well not for Scott Scott Raiamuto first I got Ria Muto first I think the consensus this is going to be real Muto. But you're all crazy.

I don't think there's much doubt Sanchez has the higher ceiling. And that's the thing is that like the best case scenario for J.T. Romuto is he's like, what, a borderline top 80 overall player? Probably. Like whatever he was last year. Gary Sanchez is the only catcher who I think has, without taking position into account, you know, top 40 upside. Yeah.

I'll try to, it'll take me some time, but I'll try to count and see where Reaamuto finished among hitters. Unless I already did that. I mean, part of it is because Gary Sanchez was kind of a national laughing stock. I thought, I anticipated heading into the 2019, it was going to be like, make the case for drafting Gary Sanchez high still. You know, make the case for drafting Gary Sanchez as a top five catcher still. And clearly it's not. but Rio Muto was a distant first this year

and obviously hasn't dealt with injuries the way Sanchez has the past couple years I'm not really worried about Sanchez hitting under 200 again that looks like a total Babbat thing but that's what happened to him this year he hit under 200 obviously don't have to worry about that with Rio Muto so I think it's it's just a

like it's clearly those two at the top and Rio Muto seems much safer. So just for comparison's sake, Real Muto finished as the 101st overall player, including pitchers in CBS Sports Roto leagues. Gary Sanchez, obviously not even close, but in 2016, or 2017, excuse me, Gary Sanchez was number 56.

And that just, Gary Sanchez is the only catcher I would reach for. You know, if, if Real Muto falls to me in like the sixth round, I could see myself taking him, but I just don't think he puts you far enough ahead of the position anywhere. And if that's what I'm...

That's what I'm going for. I think you could make the case that over the last three years, since Gary Sanchez debuted, that Rayamuto is a better overall hitter than Gary Sanchez, and I'll tell you why. His road OPS, the last three years, has been 893,

897 and 870. What killed him in 2016 and 17, he had a 643 and 633 home OPS. And in 2018, it was 773, which is why he was able to become the number one catcher in fantasy. If Rayamuto gets traded, then he might be better than Gary Sanchez because he's going to hit 300. He's going to hit 300. He's going to hit, his BAP's going to be over 300. It's going to hit like 270, 278 two years in a row. It seems like a virtual lock he's going to get traded to. His agent has basically said he's not going to be a Marlon next year now.

That does make it's interesting. His agent can't make anything happen, but if he wants out that badly, you've got to feel like they're going to accommodate him. Yeah, because we have not seen J.T. Reamuto's ceiling because he's been hampered by Marlins Park. He could have a yellage-type bump. And in that case, I won't be quite as adamant, but I'd still probably take Sanchez. over Rayamuto. Seattle could be sellers. Miguel Cabrera on track to return for spring training,

and the Mets fired their hitting coach. Let's talk about some of our favorite mid and late round picks. Let's be positive pollies over here. Favorite mid and late round picks? Well, I'll just say that my favorite pick, one of my favorite mid-round picks, if this is considered mid-round. Was Gary Sanchez in round six,

66th overall, eight picks after J.T. Reaumuto, and there's no need for me to expand on that. But they went 58th and 66th overall, Amuto 1 and Sanchez 2. Yeah, I don't know that that's a mid-round pick. And I also want to further define this. This was one of the shallower formats we do. It was 12 teams, but it was 21-man rosters.

So, you know, a late round pick, and this might be a middle-round pick in like a 15-team roto league, you know, that a lot of people playing. So just putting that out there. Okay, yeah, I didn't. All three of my least favorites are in rounds five and six, so I didn't really go that deep. My bad. But hopefully you guys did. Chris, give me one of your favorite, give me one of your favorite mid or late round picks.

I'll start off by being self-congratulatory and saying that I got Corey Seeger in the seventh round with the six pick, and that just feels like stealing. He's coming back from the elbow injury, but it shouldn't really hamper him as a hit. hitter. He got past it. And this was a guy who, going into last season, we were looking at as a second or third round pick. So that just seems to me like the injury risk is well priced in, probably too much. I actually took him as my number two shortstop. I had Zander Bogart's already, but by the time it got to me, it was just the value was too good for me not to take Corey Seeger in the seventh round. All right. Yeah. I like it. I like the guy. The people will overlook because of the injury.

Scott, give me one of your favorites. Well, if we're focusing more on the middle rounds, rather than the late rounds, I've got a lot of late rounds. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It can jump around. Okay. I suppose middle would be better.

I've changed my mind on what I just said. Sorry. Change your mind. Okay, well, what about your Alex Reyes pick in round 10? Oh, thank you. I did like that pick, yeah. Yeah, that's definitely, like the kind of players being drafted in that same range. Like Kyle Freeland was the next pitcher taken.

Obviously, he had a very good year, but is anybody going to be excited to draft Kyle Freeland? No. Dallas Keiko was right before that. Fine pitcher. Is anybody going to be excited to take him? No. Alex Reyes, you know, he could be top 10. Now, there's a lot of health risk, obviously.

He came back from Tommy John surgery and what was? is it Tours Lat right away. Yeah. I don't even think it's 100%. He's going to have a rotation spot out of spring training. But you look at what he did on that rehab assignment coming back from Tommy John's surgery after already previously being considered the best pitching prospect in baseball. And this guy looks like a prodigy, you know?

54% strikeout rate on that rehab assignment, by the way. Yeah. And I think he allowed like one hit every start or something stupid. He didn't give up one run in the majors last year in four. Four innings. Four innings. That's okay. No one runs.

It's just like if you're aiming high with the middle round pick and, you know, I don't. It's, I think we're at a point in round 10 where it's not going to really lose the draft for you. If that, lose the league for you, if that pick goes, it's just a total bust. I like pursuing the upside there with Reyes. And to be honest with you, I'm going to, what did Chris say, be self-congratulatory? Is that what you said? Yeah. I'm going to do that too because my next pick was Andrew Heaney.

And I just think Heaney kind of fell apart. I think the innings may have gotten to him at the end of last year, but I think he's really good. So Reyes and Heaney back-to-back, I feel like one of those guys could really take off, give me a must-start pitch. I agree. And I'm not down on Tyler Skaggs either. He went around 13. Yeah, it was another good thing. For the same reason, he started having what was his issue. I can't remember anybody's actual injuries now. But it was like a triceps or something that he delayed going on the DL4 and then came back too soon from it, whatever.

Just totally wrecked his ERA. But he was looking like a top 20 type pitcher before that. All right, I give you another one of my favorites. Michael Conforto to Chris Towers in round 11. Way to go, Chris Towers. Thank you so much, Adam. I'm sure you were excited about that pick. He was awesome in the second half. He was the guy we hoped he would be. And given that he was coming back from a major shoulder injury and got off to a slow start, I think that helps explain his struggles.

And so 895 OPS, 273 batting average, 17 homers and 68 games. I think this is a 35 to 40 homer guy if he's healthy. He's going to walk a decent amount. He won't strike out so much that he kills you. If I can get him, what was that, 13th round? 11th round. No, you're not that good. If I can get him in that range in every draft, I'm going to be thrilled.

Right. It's a 12-team league, so we're talking pick like around 130th, 125th overall. This is Michael Conforto we're talking about here. 126. 126, thank you. Against lefties. He was better against lefties and righties. So that could be extremely significant.

for Michael Conforto. And, yeah, the outfielers that went in the same range, Will Myers, David Peralta, Aaron Hicks. I think that's about right. You think so? Yeah, I think that's about right. I have Conforto just outside of my top 30. I have Myers and Peralta just inside of my top 30. Hicks. Hicks I like a lot here too, especially when you consider he may have, he may have,

he probably should have hit for a higher batting average than he did, and yet his per game production was still for this format, because the play discipline's so good, was still pretty close to elite. So I think all of these outfield picks are good, frankly. I just I don't buy David Peralta I know that the underlying numbers suggest that he was really that good you know the hard hit percentage

the long drive percentage but I just anytime someone comes that much out of nowhere like he was decent before this but this was a level that we had never seen from him at a full at a full season I just I have to be skeptical

so there's a pretty good chance I won't be drafting David Peralta next season. He did have near 900 OPS and 500 played appearances basically. So that was in 2015. So that

was actually a higher OPS than he had last year. But that was with a 370 BABIP and not near as much power. Yeah, that was with a really high Babbat. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's a fair point. He hasn't quite shown that kind of home run potential before. But I don't know.

I got to understand taking Conforto over him. But I do think Peralta deserves to go ahead based on the season he just had. All right, Chris Towers. Give me another like on Facebook. I want to confirm one thing. Ross Stripling is relief pitcher eligible next year, correct? Yes. He went in the 12th round to George Maselli, and I love that.

The spark The spark crop looks a lot better for 2019 than it did coming into 2018. And, you know, it's not clear if he's going to have a rotation spot himself, but the gains that he made last season, I really think he can be very good. I know he fell apart in the second half of the season, but he looked awesome. The overall numbers are great.

I don't think he's going to be the two ERA guy he was in the first half. But I think he can be a three to mid-threes guy. And in this format, yeah, it's a good pick. He was phenomenal in the three true outcomes. I mean, he, you know, his FIP was low. And yeah, I would be really excited about drafting him. And I don't think it's a bad gamble here. But my guess is he probably won't have a rotation spot at the start of next year

because they're going to have Kershaw back, Rich Hill, Bueller, Alex Wood, Kintamaeda, presumably will have a rotation spot till August again. So they can keep taking advantage of that contract clause. Did you say Junjin Ryu? He's a free agent. He's a free agent. They did make him a qualifying offer, which surprised me. I know he had a good year, but he's been ravaged by injuries.

And even this year, he missed some time with injuries. So I'm not, I don't think it's crazy to think he might take the qualifying offer. You know, it's an absolute killer. What? Ken Tamayette finished one relief pitcher, relief pitching appearance short of relief pitcher eligibility next year. Let me just say, so we're talking about Ross Stripling in round 12 with RP eligibility. Julio Reyes is going to be around next year too. That's right.

Carlos Martinez went around five, and he's RPL. eligible. And I took Mike Clevenger one pick ahead of him, and I thought to myself, I'm taking Carlos Martinez with my next pick in round six. I did not even get to queue up Carlos Martinez because he was gone so quickly after I took Clevenger. I probably should have taken Carlos Martinez there since he does have R.P. Eligibility.

I mean, that guy could be huge. Actually. Yeah. Sorry, it's 10 appearances for R.P. Eligibility, right? Yeah, yeah, 10. Yeah. Okay, so my idea of them have.

Lyer. Such a liar. So sorry. So Stripling. Scott, how about you, another like? Another pick you like? Well, sticking with the Sparp theme, I liked Chris's Tyler Glassnow pick in round 13.

Kind of for similar reasons to me liking your Alex Reyes pick. I don't think the upside is quite as high. But he flashed some of it during his time with the Rays. I think for sure has a rotation spot. And he's Sparp. He's Sparp eligible. So, you know, it could just, like, even if he wasn't relief pitcher eligible,

I feel like that's a good spot to draft him just for the upside. The fact that you could slot him in one of those two spots, assuming he's good. Obviously, if he isn't, you're going to be looking for a closer. But, you know, that could happen to a late round closer, too. So I think it's a good pick. Tyler Glass now. Chris, Scott White has said both whip it out and flashed today.

Scott is a sick, he's a sick, sick man. It's Chris Towers. Wow. Yeah. Flashed? Let's move along. Get your mind out of the gutter, Adam. Well, how about this?

Since this show, I don't want this show to take six hours, so that was good pace on that last glass. Now what? Why don't you guys just fire away at me, picks you like mid and lay round picks? Scott, I'll let you go first. I want to look at round 18, because there are four very interesting picks in round 18.

I'm not sure I love all of them, but I at least love the idea of them. Peter Alonzo, who we recently heard, is at least going to be competing for the Mets first base job this spring. I suspect you won't be up until mid-April of the earliest, but it could be that early. A huge power prospect. Francisco Mejia, Chris's pick. My top catcher prospect going into this next season.

I think it'll probably be a timeshare with Hedges, Austin Hedges. I think it'll be about a 50-50 timeshare, which isn't great. But if either of them is going to emerge and have more of the bets, it's likely to be Mejia who's a really good hitter, a really good hitter. I think top five potential if he gets the abats at a position like catcher. Shohei Otani, Adam, your pick in round 18,

obviously just as a DH. Yeah. And it's going to be a question of how much the Dodgers have to take him out of the lineup just to let him rehab. First of all, he's going to be ready for the start of the season. I think that's a reasonable question, but I think there's a good chance

since he doesn't have to throw at all as a DH. But, you know, are they going to have to rest him just to let him rehab as a pitcher or is he going to be able to play literally every day like he did down the stretch last season once it was clear he was going to have Tommy John surgery? And if he's playing every day, I mean, you're talking potentially a 40 homer guy.

Did he play against lefties down the stretch? Yeah. Yeah, he was playing against everybody. Yeah, I put this round 18, I couldn't believe he was still there. I mean, I plan on, we're not playing this out, but I make this pick planning on putting him on my DL and just picking somebody up. But Otani, if he starts the year on the DL, he's probably the one of the top DL stashes right off the bat. He started every game in September except for the first three, except for two of the first three. So, yeah, he started like, I don't know, 25 straight games to end the season.

And he steals, like, he runs, too. That's true. He had what? How many steals did he end up with? Not that many, but when he was pitching, he didn't run at all. Yeah. When he was just a hitter, he did. He's an amazing talent.

In retrospect, I wish I had taken him. I think this format is tricky because the rosters are so small and lineups are so small. He's DH only. and so, you know, if you drafted a good second first baseman or a good second third basement, like anyone else who blocks that spot, do you want to have a DH-only guy on your bench? You'd probably rather have a starting pitcher on your bench. So I could understand how he got passed over because of that. And it's also, you know, if he's not playing every day, if he's playing two out of every three days,

then he's probably not worth starting at all. And it, you know, it's obviously a risk-reward thing, but I think the reward. round 18 is certainly worth it. Okay, what was the last one? So you said, you said, Peter Alonzo for the Mets, Francisco Maha'i here for the Padre, Shohay Otani, and... Alex, Alex Smith.

Not because I think there's, like, a huge ceiling like with those first three, but because I was just intrigued to see how much he was going to be valued in this format. Because we tend to think of the base dealers as more rhodo players, and he was a great, great base dealer in the second half, but he was also a good play discipline guy.

There wasn't much power, but he ran a lot and he got on base. This isn't Billy Hamilton. This is more valuable than that, potentially. I could see him being a must-star player even in this format next year, because stolen bases are worth two points apiece. I mean, it adds up. Yep. Well, Malik-Smith certainly was a must-star player.

All right, Chris, fire away. Some picks you really liked. round 15 jimmy nelson seventh overall i think people have forgotten how good he was in 2017 yes he's coming back from a shoulder injury yes he was not able to pitch no he was not able to pitch in 2018 but the upside there is really high as he showed in 2017 and i guess part of a reason for optimism would be that he didn't injure himself pitching so it's not like there's some reason to believe that he can't hold up. Let's just hope he doesn't hurt himself running the bases anymore. And then the following round, around 16, I'll go with a trio of post-hyped sleepers,

back-to-back, Kyle Tucker, Rafael Devers, and Matt Olson. I think it's fair to say all three of them disappointed in 2018. And I love drafting guys with that kind of pedigree coming off disappointing seasons because we tend to forget about the guys who struggle. We tend to undervalue them. All three of those guys have huge fantasy upside. It's not clear if Kyle Tucker's going to have an everyday job, but the other two guys will play every day.

Who are the other two guys? And repeat those, please. Raphael Devers and Matt Olson. Sounds like you guys liked a lot of my picks. Rafael Devers, right? Didn't I draft him? Yes, you did. Yeah.

Yeah, I kind of crushed it. Kind of crushed it. At least for the hitters. Not so much the pitchers. So, yeah, I circled three guys in round 16 and 17, all Astros. Kyle Tucker, you mentioned Josh James. Yep. And Tyler White.

White? Okay. So I knew White had a good finish. I didn't realize he had an unbelievable August and a dreadful September. Tyler White had a 667 OPS in September. Very bad at 226. I think he had one home run. Yeah.

So, I don't know. It may have been just a hot month for him. Maybe. I mean, he's always been a great hitter in the minors. I think the most discouraging thing about White, the reason I kind of, I had to tweak my first base rankings, which I originally released in mid-September, but I ended up having to tweak them after the season, is because the Astros hardly played him in the playoffs. It was all Uly Guriel at first base.

It was usually Evan Gaddis at DH. Now, Gattis is leaving, so there's still opportunity there. I'm just not confident they want White to fill that opportunity. They still have Tony Kemp there, who they like a lot. Obviously, Kyle Tucker, they're going to want to find playing time for him. So I think if we're going with surprising late season surprises at first. first base who did target for next year. I actually like Luke Voigt, who went three rounds later, end of round 19.

I actually like Kim Moore. Obviously, it changes if the Yankees bring in a high-profile first baseman, but he was so good right until the bidder in, right into the playoffs, that I'm just not sure they're going to want to devote their resources of that, especially knowing they still have Greg Bird that they can maybe get something out of. maybe they'll move Miguel Anta Harder first base, who knows. Greg Bird, I think Greg Bird has a better chance of being good than Luke Voight. Luke Boyd feels like like... So you're really low on Luke Voix. Yeah, he feels like the ultimate flash of the pandemic. See, he seems perfectly, when you look at his batted ball profile, and I mean, you look at his biceps, the guy's super strong.

Oh, he's a power hitter. There's no question. But how many of his home runs were to right field at Yankee Stadium? He's a guy who elevates the ball the other way, and it's just like the perfect stadium for him to wind up at. Yeah, no, that's true. I think he'll get a chance. If he doesn't, we'll know well ahead of draft day and whatever.

You don't draft it. But if he does get a chance, I think he's a definite sleeper. Well, I'll tell you what. I personally, if I'm going to go to a Yankees game, I'd rather see Greg Bird than Luke Void. Maybe the fans would rather boo Greg Bird than cheer Luke Voix. I don't know, but we'll let them decide. The bottom line is if you want to go to a game, you got to use Seekek.

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Let's be negative nancy's now. We were positive pollies for a while. Now we're going to talk about late and mid-round picks that we don't like. I'm just going to get all three of mine out of the way since I kind of cheated and didn't use any actual mid-round or late-round picks. Within about 15 picks of each other, Starling Marte, Eloi Jimenez, and Robbie Ray.

58th overall to about 70th overall, something like that. Marte, this is too early for him in a points league, in my opinion. He actually was the number 17 outfielder in this format. If he had played 155 games, he would have been the number 13 outfielder in this format. And just based on that alone,

that would be fine at 6.5. at 58th overall, but he was right around Nick Marcaquis, Michael Brantley, Nick Castiano's. In terms of finish? Yeah, if he had played 155 games, which he's no lock to do. So per game.

Per game. Yeah, yeah, well, except I don't know how many games that Brantley play. I don't know. I can tell you, I have the per game numbers right here. Yeah, it's just, the outfielders aren't that good at that point. I know that they are top 15, but they don't feel like what we expect from a top 15 outfielder. Nick Marquakis went around 15.

Michael Brantley ran around 7. Nick Castellanos actually really like his value, round 10. It's too early for Marte, in my opinion, in this format. I think Elohimenez, no major league of bats. I don't want to take him in round 6. And Robbie Ray, come on, really? What is this last year? No, not in round 6.

And I'm done. Yeah, I agree on Eloy. he's someone that I'm more likely to draft, I think, this year than I am. You know, Vladimir Guerrero to name one other guy who hasn't played in the majors yet. But that's assuming the Vladimir Guerrero is going to go a lot higher than him. And, you know, there have been some off-season mock drafts that I've seen where Vlattito has gone, like, third round. And Elo Jimenez has gone, like, outside of the top 100. If he falls outside of the top 100, I love the value.

Sure. But, yeah, I agree in the sixth round. You know, Lorenzo Kane goes a few picks behind him. I'd rather have Lorenzo Kane. Yeah, it's amazing. I just, I can't remember feeling this crappy about the round. I'd rather have Tommy Fam in round seven. These outfielders going in this range.

I can't remember feeling this bad about them. And obviously the first baseman, first baseman suck this year. especially if you eliminate Maryfield. I don't know that outfield is where I'd be looking at round six and maybe that's kind of the point you're making Adam. That is exactly the point I'm making.

Because I do have Aloi Hemanis ahead of Kane and and Fam if we're talking specific examples. But yeah, you know, Chris Archer went right before. I'd rather have Archer. Scooter Jeanette went right behind. I'd rather have Jeanette as weak as second basis.

You got Edwin Diaz, the first closer off the board, in that same range. Archer to Chris and Jeanette to me, by the way. When are we going to realize that Chris Archer is not very good? Well. One more year of being bad? Three in a row?

In this format, he was always good before last year. You know? The ERA was always on the high side, but he pitched a ton of innings. No, it wasn't always. It used to be in the 330s. Okay, there was that one year where it was in the 3rd. I don't think it was just one year, was it? I thought it was three years in a row.

It was three years in a row. 322, 333, 323. Well, what are you so upset about then? Because now it's three years in a row of a bad ERA. It's two years in a row of a bad ERA. Yeah, well, he's not that good. Especially in 2017. No, it's three years in a row.

Sorry. It's three years in a row of a bad ERA. My bad. The FIP was always much lower. And now he's in a much more favorable league and division to pitch in. and he had a really strong finish, and the stuff and the swinging strike rate were both the same as always last year.

I think his struggles were super fluky. Three years in a row? I mean, like I was saying, last year was the only year where he really didn't perform up to expectations and points leads. I guess. And a lot of it had to do with, you know, missing time with injury getting pulled earlier in games than we were used to seeing him

pulled the strikeout total was down like the strikeout rate was down inexplicably I don't I don't think he was really any worse last year than I mean the results were obviously worse but I don't see much evidence that he was a worse pitcher no he wasn't a worse pitcher because he hasn't been that good of a pitcher

the only thing he doesn't give you innings he was 17th in 20 17 exactly I reject that he had a strong finish. It was five starts. I wish it had been a little bit more. His last five starts were terrific. 270 ERA. This is Chris Archer, by the way. Two 70 ERA, 36 strikeouts and 30 innings. Four home runs allowed. I wish it had been a little bit more, but fine. I guess I won't completely reject it. This is what we do. You know, we slice up these small samples to justify what we want them to say. And look, I think the point is Chris Archer does have a lot of upside. He's a proven 200- inning guy. We've talked about how rare that is. He didn't get there last year. Fine. But for the most part, he's been able to in his career. And if things go right and he gets that ERA into even the 370 range on a team that we expect to be competitive again next year, you know, there's top 15-ish upside. I don't think there's an ace upside, but in the seventh round, it seems fine. Or eighth round?

No, sixth round. Sorry, Chris. That was your pick. And you keep trying to make your picks better than they actually were, but I'm here to fact-check you, Chris Towers. Two Pinocchio's for Chris. What was I going to say? Archer. Oh, the best case to be made for Archer is the one that we made at the trade deadline when he got moved,

that he had been really bad for like three years in a row against the American League East. That is the one thing that will maybe pull me back into Chris Archer. It's a good point. It's a good point. I hope he can take advantage of that. All right, so I went, Chris, give me some of your least favorite mid and late round picks. Oh, God, I got distracted. I had some, and then I got distracted.

Okay, Josh Donaldson went in the fifth round. If we're counting that as a mid-round pick, I just don't like the value there. Only I can use the fifth round as a mid-round pick. Yeah. That's just, it's too early. You know, he doesn't seem to, like, you could make a case for it coming off of season he had the year before when he was disappointing overall, but was so good in the second half. Last year, he didn't really show much of anything. So you've got a guy whose skill set seems to

be declining. He's older. He hasn't been able to stay healthy two years in a row. And you're investing that much in him. You know, Joey Votto went around later. And I get that Joe Votto was disappointing in his own right this year. But the skill set seems to be much more intact for Votto. Scott, you got one? Yeah. Miguel Ande O'Hard in round nine. Let's just keep picking on Miguel Andehaar, right? That's only a round after Justin Turner.

Justin Turner averaged 3.28 points per game this year. Andohar averaged 3.09. That's a bigger difference than it sounds like. And that was with what seems. like a best case scenario for Miguel Andehar. Nelson Cruz went three spots after him. Edward Encarnacion, one spot

after that. These are mainstays, particularly in Carnacion in this format, where you don't have to worry so much about the low batting average. Yeah, you're right, yeah. Yeah. I like a lot of the pitchers going

in this range more, too. I think especially in this format, they're going to be more impactful guys like Jay Hap and Cole Hamels who's back with the Cubs. Then you get into that Dallas Keichel, Alex Reyes range we were talking about earlier. It just seems about four rounds too early, Miguel Andehar and round nine. You know, it'd be better in like a roto league where you didn't, that horrid play discipline wasn't going to bring down his numbers, but that's not what this is. All right.

How about another one, Scott? And then we'll go to Chris. Another one Well, how about Victor Robles in round 11? Disagree! I liked Victor Robles in round 11. I was going to mention that as one of the ones I like.

Another kind of post-hypey guy. He hasn't really gotten a chance in the majors, but huge prospect pedigree. This isn't his best format. I'll grant that. It just seems like, obviously, there's a potential for it to work out very well. If he comes up and he's everything everybody dreamed he would be, then it's a great pick in round 11. But I think the more likely scenario is he's going to, first of all, win a job.

He has to win a job. And then he's going to have to find his footing. And then it's going to be mostly steals at the early stages of his career. or maybe he adds power later on. And, you know, this is the same round where, like, David Peralta, a 30-homer guy with a high batting average a year ago, Michael Conforto, who were just raving a rap bout. They both went after Victor Robles. I think Robles is probably more like around 40th for me in outfield rankings, and he's going here around 30th.

So, if you rounds too early. Per 150 games in the minors, he's averaged 14 homers, 50 steals, with a third. 300 average. This was the number six overall prospect coming into last season. Besides getting hurt, didn't really do anything to hurt his prospect pedigree in the minors. He didn't hit for power, but as in that, and given that he was coming back from an elbow injury, I don't think that's necessarily something I would hold against him. I think there's Trey Turner potential here.

I'm not disagreeing. I just think it's too early. think the quality of players you're passing up here is too high for a very questionable pick and it'd be one it'd be another thing if it was roto you know like you could make the same argument for alex reyes who went around earlier but i think Alex Reyes is i mean Alex Reyes is less proven in the majors isn't he well he's got four scoreless in He's proven at all. He's not giving up a run in the majors.

What do you, what is Alex Reyes need to do? I pitched for 46 in 2016. He was really good. I could see, like, I could see making the opposite case in a Roto League, where you have more outfield spots to fill, fewer pitcher spots to fill. And the Bates dealer is more impactful than the picture. Yeah, I could see taking Robles from, like, the seventh round in a Roto league, actually. Yeah.

That's, I mean, it's a little early for me. I'd still rather have, like, a Loy Jimenez, but, uh, But yeah, I think it's easier to justify them in this range in that format where outfielders and stolen bases are at more of a premium. All right, Chris, fire away with some picks you hate. We'll get the Alberto Mondesie one out of the way because that's going to be the pick in every single draft for me. And then I'll go with, I can't quite explain why. but I don't think Mitch Hanaker's that good. I agree.

He went in the seventh round. To Scott. No offense, Scott. I just, I don't know. I think that was like the absolute best case scenario for him. And I think it's just okay, you know? Especially they're going to tear that team down. He's going to be, you know, it sounds like, according to reporting today,

they're going to tear the team down and build around him. Anytime you can build around a 28-year-old with one good season under his belt, you've got to do it. That team could be really bad around him. So that's going to depress his counting stats. And I just think, like, is he that much better than Nick Castianos? I don't think so. I don't think so. I think that it's 120th overall.

Which is where he was going. Remember, this is exactly where Cassianos was going last year, and there was a lot of debate, whether or not he deserved to be there. He really trailed off late in the year, and I don't know why. But I think Cassiano showed for a while that he was really breaking out. He's just a solid player. So I like that pick a lot, Castianos. That was 120th overall.

Yeah. So I just look at it, I just think, like, they're probably the same guy. I think there's reason to believe Castellanos might be a little better because the bad of ball data is better. caveats about Comerica Park insert here, but, yeah, I just, Mitch Hanager just, he feels a little jaggy. Scott, you made the picks, sir, in the seventh round on Hanager, end of seven round. I think all of the outfielder's in this range are a little jaggy, because the next outfielders

to go off the board, Eddie Rosario, AJ Pollock, who's, not much of a base steward anymore. It's worth pointing out. You got Justin up did a little after that. Max Muncie. I agree. Max Muncie's not an outfair. Oh, he's first base only.

Yeah. And obviously if Max Mundy's an everyday player, he's a stud, but we don't know if he is. Yeah, I think the outfield crop in this range is pretty mediocre. I picked AJ Pollock. I'm not thrilled with it. And part of my thinking, too, was, okay, Hanager, high on base guy batting second in a good lineup. If it's not a good lineup anymore, then he probably isn't better than Castiano's.

I don't think there's anything that he did this past year. Among the things he could actually control, not so much RBI and run scored, nothing he did this year seems looky. I think my biggest takeaway from this draft is that it might not make sense to use a mid-round pick on an outfielder. Get an elite one and wait. That could be a strategy. I'm not saying all of these outfielers will be bad by any means, but doesn't make sense to reach for them?

It's a lot of the same thing for maybe a good six-round, seven-round stretch. That's, I mean, that's probably a fair takeaway. The player pulls up position. Oh, God. And that's in a three outfielder league. If it's five outfielders, it puts more of a strain on it, I'm sure. Yeah, sure. And there's more way for guys to contribute, especially outfield.

Yeah, yeah. That's where guys who can steal bases or guys who are kind of empty power threats can start to make up a little ground. But yeah, I think in a points league, it's a little like wide receiver at outfield where there are a handful of standouts, but between like, 20 and 60 It's kind of It's kind of all the same, which is wild. How about we recap our teams? And then we'll read emails and finish the show.

Scott White, recap your team, big man. Okay, so I started out going My first few picks here where I was at the, I had the 12th picks. I was pick it back to back. Bryce Harper, Chris Sale, and then Juan Soto, Patrick Corbyn. we talked about those first four picks last week,

I mentioned it was not such a great thing that I didn't get a single infielder in my first four picks. The infield spots, with the exception of second base, well, you know what? I take that back. The only deep infield spots are third base and shortstop. So half of the infield is not so deep anymore. And outfields, you know, the fact I took Mitch Hanager

in round 7 and filled out the rest of the outfield probably not the most efficient way to draft for this format I will agree with that I think for making the investment I made in pitching my pitching staff doesn't look as good as I would hope it would I'm logging in it

because I got logged out Chris Sale Patrick Corbin Hermann Marquez Kyle Gibson, Joe Musgrove Chris Sale, Corbyn, Marquez, Gibson, and Musgrove with Dylan Bundy and Brad Keller on your bench,

your closers are Brad Hand and Blake Trinan. Yeah, I mean, with Sale, Corbyn and Marquez, you feel like you've got aces there, and then Musgrove, Gibson. Yeah, no, that's good. Your hitters are Molina, who's ageless and really good in this format. Yeah, and I got him for nothing.

like you can get him for every year it seems like Edwin and Carnaccio Brian Dozier Ehuehanyos Suarez Jurexen Profar That's short Harper and Fielder It's not that I don't

I don't hate any of them individually But Who's the most trustworthy of all of them Edwin and Carnacian He's in 30s Swares is the most trustworthiest Oh

Well It depends how you do define trustworthy because he just became a must-start player in this format this year. So, yeah, he was the highest drafted of all of them, but is he trustworthy? I don't know that I'd describe him that way. Scott's D.H. is Jesse Winker. He has Luke Voight, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo

on the bench. A very New Yorker bench there, Voight McNeil and Nimmo. I like that. Yeah. It feels like feels like a pretty vanilla pitching staff and a pretty vanilla offense. All right. That's Scott's favorite team then. It's not my favorite team. I would do things.

I'm not exactly sure yet how I'd do them differently, but I'm going to rethink some of the approaches I made because I don't love the final product. I think I might love my team. I think I might be hopelessly in love with my team. I'm going to say mine before Chris is because I'm here more often. Wellington Castillo is my catcher, and it does not matter to me. You can insert catcher here. Whatever. So Castillo, super late.

Infield is quite good. Paul Goldsmith, Scooter Jeanette, Jose Ramirez. And then I like my Elvis Andrews pick in round 17. But Jose Ramirez and Paul Goldsman were my first two picks. Scooter Jeanette is my second baseman. Elvis Andrews is my shortstop. My outfielers, I already said on yesterday, last week's show, I really like George Springer in points. I got him in the fourth round.

I think he bounces back. Bat lead off for a great lineup. Get on base. all that stuff, score a lot of runs. George Springer, Max Muncie and David Dahl. So I'll cross my fingers a little bit there that they play a lot. And I have Rafael Devers at utility. So I have Muncie, Dahl, and Devers to go with Springer on that infield.

I have Eric Thames on the bench. And my pitching staff is definitely not as good as Scots, but I do have Kenley Jansen. Closer's really interesting because Jansson's coming off a bad year. Kimbril's a free agent. Chapman's gotten hurt two years in a row. Edwin Diaz burned us in 2017 was amazing 2018

but I have Jansen for what it's worth and I have Brandon Morrow My pitching staff is Garrett Cole Mike Clevenger Andrew Heaney Oh Zach Wheeler Andrew Heaney and Alex Reyes

It actually kind of sucks But it's Cole Clevenger, Heaney, Wheeler and Reyes But I think with I don't think it sucks All right good With Heaney Wheeler and Reyes and then Gialito is one of my last picks.

Rich Hill and Marcus Strowman. Stroman is, I think, a great points league sleeper. I think he's going to be really good in this format, and I think he was just injured last year. I think Rich Hill, yeah. It's okay. It's fine. This team's good.

I think I'm going to win this league, considering we're never playing it out. I like your balance more. Your pitching staff isn't as good as mine, but I think it's good, and I don't think you sacrificed as much. much on the hitting end as I did. Maybe just the fact that I went two pitchers with my first three picks, or maybe even two in the first four, is just overdoing it a little bit.

I don't know. I'll look into it more. Obviously, we have a long way to go. Christopher Towers. Hey. Hey, buddy. What's up? I really liked your team. I think it's really good. I think the outfield stinks, but the infield is magical. Francisco Maha'iatt catcher, tons of upside there Anthony Rizzo Robinson Canoe and you know Canoe fell I'm going to look where he he went 14th round

Yeah he's not so good He's not so good He was he was himself last year And he was not someone we were taking in the 14th round last year Like when he was on the field When he was not suspended He was himself

Is he a star? No Is he better than a 14th round pick Absolutely. Among players who will be second base eligible next year. So that's leaving out Mondesi, it's leaving out Matt Carpenter. It's leaving out Jose Ramirez. Canoa's fourth in head-to-head points per game. All right, all right, Chris.

He has shown... He's old and it may just end for him. But he's shown no signs of decline yet. And, I mean, let's be honest. He took some PEDs last year. He's pretty. probably going to decline a little slower than he should have. I'm fine with that.

Something that we've seen, look at Nelson Cruz, look at Starling Marte, look at Dee Gordon. Most of those guys have been just as good before and after their suspensions. Now, Dee Gordon fell apart last. Two years ago, he was a huge value because people were afraid of him coming off the PED.

That's fine. All right, all right. You win. You win. pound the desk. All right, Mejia, Rizzo, Canoe. Nolan Aronado. The third basement sucks, Aeronado. Zander Bogartz. Zing. I don't love my outfield.

It's Michael Conforto, A.J. Pollock, Justin Upton. That's three jags. It's fine. But they're not like... They won't kill them. Yeah, it's not like, oh, I need to... This is a problem I need to fix. That outfields perfectly serviceful.

And then Corey Seeger is my DH. That's interesting because you said you really liked your Corey Seeger pick with like 78th overall or something. Yeah. And I agree, but you already had Bogarts. That's fine. he's good. At that point, when a value is staring you in the face that much,

someone who probably should have gone two rounds ahead, why are you getting so close to the camera? I'm staring at you at the face. You said a value was staring at you at the face, so I just... Yeah, yeah, he was staring me in the face, and, you know, this was a player who was considered potentially the number one shortstop.

All right. Who are your pitchers? It's a surprisingly strong Good, Chris Towers pitching. Quality Chris team here. Justin Verlander, Chris Archer, Dallas Kichel, Noah Cindergarde, John Gray. Why would you read Cindergarde after Archer and Kyle? I forgot.

He's not used to have an 78s. Noah Cindergarde, Chris Archer, Dallas Keikle, John Gray. Upside and Safety. Tyler Glassnow is a spark. AJ Minter as a reliever. and then I went for upside on the bench. Obviously, this was before we knew Lance McCullors might be out for the season. But Lance McCullors, Luke Weaver, Louise Gahara.

I think Gahara might be on a different team next year, but that's fine because he might not have a rotation spot in Atlanta. I really like this team. I think it's really good. Chris's pitching is better than mine, and his hitting's better than mine. He wins this round. Talk about your strategy of drafting three bench pitchers all with the first name that began with L.

That can't be a coincidence. My team's going to be very good at handing out L's. With Louise Gohara, Lance McCullors, and Luke Weaver emails. We're going overtime today. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. This is from Hugh in St. Louis, Missouri. I'm thinking about my keepers for 2019, where a head-to-head points league. We can keep five players for three years maximum.

Need to keep one pitcher, one position player. and the other three can be whatever. So five keepers for three years maximum. I have Scherzer, Kershaw, Bauer, Snell, Carasco, at pitcher. So Scherzer's going to be his keeper, right? Or Snell? It's got to be Scherzer. Is it for more than one year?

Yeah, it's three years max. I still think it's Scher. Scott? Well, he can keep more than one. He has to keep at least one. one. I think, yeah, I think Scher, like you may not get, yeah, I, that third year may be wasted, but it may not.

I think you got to go Scherzer. He's just to reliably number the best now. Without debating it, we're going to keep Scherzer and some other pitchers. The hitters, he has to keep one of these three, Altuve, Chris Davis, and Soto. Who do you keep it? I would keep Altuvae, yep. Now we need three more out of these names. Kershaw, Bauer, Snell, Krasco, Chris Davis, and Soto.

I think I might go Snell and Soto there, so you still get the... One more. You still get the youth. I think I go Snell Soto Bauer. Yep, that's exactly what I was going to do. All right, cool. So Scherzer, Snell, Bauer, Soto, Al-Tube. Dear, this is from Joel in Pittsburgh.

Dear, B-B-Bee-B-B-B-B-W-Stedy. those are the punks who are mutated into a rhino and a wart hog in the Ninja Turtles cartoon. Did you know that, Chris? No, it felt like one that I should know. Yeah, it was. And that's why I didn't say anything. I was afraid to say anything because I thought it was too obvious. But I'm drafting with a millennial over here.

Towers. During the season, we did not perform well enough. and we're forced to trade Alex Bregman. It's a 14-team Dynasty League where you can keep seven guys for five years each. We dealt Bregman for Corey Seeger, Walker, Bueller, Kyle Tucker, and Picks. Did we get enough value? By the way, it just says Seeger. I don't know which Seeger.

But we dealt Breggman for Seeger, Bueller, Kyle Tucker, and Picks. Did we get enough value? I'm not sure. I don't know that you did in only Cesar. seven players being kept. If it was like 10 players being kept, I think it would tip the scales more in your favor. But seven keeper spots still seems like they're scarce enough that the real Primo players should get an even bigger haul than that. I don't think it's bad. Five years. You know, it's a dynasty that you keep him for five years.

Yeah. Breggman is old. No, I'm just saying, like, you can keep Bueller. You wouldn't keep Bueller necessarily, well, you would him. But as a top seven pick, because you're keeping seven guys. But it is a 14-team league. And Bueller has a chance in the next five years, certainly a chance to be better than Bregman. There's a chance, yeah. I mean, Bregman's already MVP-Calver, and I don't see him getting worse.

But, sure, Bueller looked awesome. Maybe I should. I think you did. Like, did you get enough? it's a fine return. Would I have taken that for Bregman personally? Probably not. It's basically how many top 100 players did you get?

Because it's seven teams, seven keepers at 14 teams. So you're keeping top one. If you were drafting for the next five years, Walker Bueller is absolutely a top 100 pick. Corey Seeger is absolutely a top 100 pick. Yeah. Kyle Tucker is where it gets tricky. All right, let's move on.

You might have gotten nothing there. Cheese from Queens. Categories league, quality starts, and OPS are added. Choose four keepers. Adelberto Mondesi, six bucks. Acuna at ten bucks. Hoskins at ten bucks. Chris Bryant, 22.

J.D. Martinez, 32. Jose Ramirez, 45. Choose four of them. The four cheapest, I think. I'm about you drop these in my Gmail at him so I can look at him. I sent the notes, didn't I? Yeah, I think it's Hoskins. No, you didn't.

Oh, I'm sorry. It's Hoskins and Anacuna for $26 total. And then it's J.D. Martinez for 22. I know, Chris Bryant for 22. Yeah, I think that's, I think it's easily those four. You're not keeping Jose Ramirez at $45? I'm hoping to get Jose Ramirez back for $50 in the draft. Fine.

This is from GMS. Head to head points. strikeout penalty for keepers. I'm keeping Trout, Aeronado, and probably Cluber. Who gets my final keeper spot? Anthony Rizzo. Ronald Acuna. Remember, no strikeout penalty, Points League. Rees Hoskins or Noah Cinderguard? I think it's a conya. Over Rizzo? I think so. I think if there's no strikeout penalty, I'd also want to know if it's two points per stolen base, like the standard CBS format, because if it's not, that would be. swing it more to Rizzo.

But just based on the information I have, Kuhnia. And finally, an email from Scott. 12 teams 6x6 Roto League. Everybody keeps 12 players, no restrictions. I'm trying to get younger with my pitching staff. I have Kirchaw, Verlander, and Carrasco. I want Bueller.

Is Kershaw for Bueller a fair offer? Should I offer more? Should I ask for more? What's the time frame we're looking at? We have about 30 seconds to answer the question It's a bad trade if you're looking at 2019 Yes If you're looking for the next five years

I think it's a good trade What if you're looking for the next two years That was probably a bad trade I'd lean against it yeah Three years maybe You could talk me into Bueller Also Scott if you wanted to ask a question You could just text us

Yeah or just tweet Let everybody weigh in Yeah. Well, fun show. Thank you guys on this Tuesday. I'm going to go stand in the rain and get my vote on. Later, everybody. Yeah.

USA. We'll talk to you next week sometime. Enjoy your time without us. Enjoy your week. See you next week. Bye.