Fantasy Baseball Today - 11/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: The Importance of Innings

Episode Date: November 15, 2017

Scott White is back and ready to talk pitching! He tells us why innings are so important (3:38) and how they will affect his draft strategy. We wonder if MLB managers will continue to rely more and more on their bullpens ... Talking about this year's top rookies (17:45). Aaron Judge or Cody Bellinger next season? What is Andrew Benintendi's upside (21:40)? What about Josh Bell (24:20)? ... Who will be better and who will be worse in 2018 for BAL (30:00), TOR (37:55) and TB (41:00)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Back to another offseason edition of the fantasy baseball today podcast. We gave you Heath as a little gift yesterday, or last week rather. Today it's Scott White returning from six months of paternity leaves. Scott White. Six months. Scott White back in the building for the first time in six years. Welcome back, Scott. Wow.

Thank you, you, you. I noticed the board is gone. Oh, well. No, it's just being used by another podcast. right now. Oh, come on. They're not using it right. I'm sure whoever they are.

Yeah, we don't have any, I don't think we have any pre-FX on this one, you know? No, no, that's a shame. That's all I thought about for six weeks. You know, baseball is a purist sport, so we shouldn't alter our voices much. No bells and whistles. No, exactly. We missed you, Scott. How you doing?

I missed you, too. I'm a little worried how this podcast is going to go. I'm kind of out of practice with my on-air voice because, you know, even though, yeah, I have kind of like a monotone voice to begin with. But as monotone as it probably sounds now to the people listening, this is like me amplifying it. Like this, like, it's taken years to, to work it out that it's just to this level. And I've spent the last six weeks being shushed constantly. So I'm so out of practice. This is what Scott sounds like after he shotguns three mountain does right before the podcast.

Awesome. Awesome. Well, how's your family? You've got now two baby, two little boys. Two little boys. Yeah, but recently turned three-year-old and, of course, the six-week-old. Things are, I think, chaotic would be the right way to describe it. But everybody's healthy.

Good. So that's the important thing. It's just, you know, getting one to do something other than screaming when he's not eating or sleeping. And the other one to get used to the fact that mommy and daddy are sometimes a little busy. A little busy. He's not used to being weighted on hand and foot. And it's not that way anymore. You spoiled him, Scott.

Big mistake. It's coming back to haunt you now. You got to ignore your children, Scott. Everyone first rule in the parenting book, take it from two experienced parents, Adam and I, together. Ignore your kids. No, he's doing well.

He loves his brother already, a little too much, I'd say. Aw, that's cute. All right, great. Well, look, we're happy to have you back. We've somehow gotten by without you. And today on the show, we've been doing the one player who will be better, one player who will be worse,

and we're out of playoff teams. So we're just going to go AFC, no. AL East, Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay. We talked about the other two teams. One player who will be better, one who will be worse from those three teams, Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay. We'll read your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com and look at the rookie of the year winners and the second and third place finishers in both leagues. And who could win rookie of the year in 2018?

We got a list from Mike Exisa on CBSports.com of three candidates in the American League and three in the National League. First, though, I asked Scott White, Scott, what do you want to talk about as you return to fantasy baseball today? And you said you want to talk about innings. So, Scott and Innings sitting in a tree, P-I-T-C-H-I-N-G. Wait, what were you spelling, Adam? P-I-T-C-H-I-N-G. Oh, okay. What did Chris just do?

Innings. He spelled innings. I-N-N-G. What you're both didn't consider? though, is the fact that I might be kissing these innings. I might be making out with innings. I'm so in love with them. It's a big thing for you.

It is. I know. This is taking a creepy turn. It was, yeah, it was something I began to notice last year, and it's, the trend is only growing stronger, and that's the idea that no pitcher really accumulates innings anymore, or at least not the way we're used to, even five years ago. Last year, it was about in, it was May 4th, actually. I wrote a piece called All Pitchers Are Terrible, including yours.

And one of the things I pointed out in that piece is that kind of the standard for a full-time pitcher, again, as recently as five years ago, 32 starts, averaging six innings to start, would be 192 innings over a full season. And in 2012, 2013, 2014, there were about 50 pitchers who reached that 192 inning mark. 2015, that number dropped from 50 to 34. 2016, it went down to 27. And then last year, there were only 17 pitchers who threw at least 192 innings last year. And a bunch of those guys were not good. It's true. A bunch of them, like Zach Davies, who, you know, we don't think of them as a good pitcher.

He won 17 games, so he ended up being a pretty good fantasy option. Oh, actually, he fell short of that mark. Clayton, Clayton, Richard's just a bad pitcher. He was above that. Clayton Richard, Chris Archer was not good last season in terms of runs. Garrick Cole was also not very good. Jeff Samarja. Some of those guys were intermittently good, but they all had ERAs over four.

They were all true fantasy assets, though. I mean, there was never a time anybody was benching Chris. Archer, except maybe the occasional terrible matchup. I don't know. I mean, forgetting the end of last season, a lot of people were like, should I start Chris Archer this week? Maybe you didn't, but maybe you should have. Well, anyway, the point I'm trying to make is this.

Well, what is the point I'm trying to make? Okay, well, you kind of interrupted my train of thought here. I'm not used to this. Rusty, it's rusty. You've got a three-year-old at home. There's no way I'm worse than a three-year-old. Consider, all right, Jake Garietta, how would you character? rise Jake Garietta's season last year. He missed a little bit of time with injury.

Still made 30 starts. We were a little concerned about the velocity, about the strikeout rate, but ultimately he had a huge second half. And I think everybody would end up thinking Jake Garietta had a decent year, right? Even Jake Garietta, a Cy Young winner just two years ago, didn't even reach the 170 inning mark and 30 starts because he was so often being pulled before six innings were done. Now, that is an issue that doesn't seem to be going away. And I think we're to a point now where we can't just assume there's going to be the steady accumulation of innings for pitchers as they're breaking into the majors. There are some that are grandfathered in, the Max Scherzer's, the Madison Bumgarner, Zach Rankies, pitchers who are both really good and allowed to extend

themselves seven plus innings at a time. And I'm not saying nobody will ever join their ranks. It looks like Luis Severino is trending that direction. Occasionally, a guy like that might pop up. But it's going to be difficult to predict who will, and I don't think you can make that assumption. So we had gotten to a point where everybody who played fantasy baseball or analyzed, it was basically on the same page as to what made a good fantasy pitcher. You looked at three true

outcome stats, strikeouts, walks, home runs, you know, lately bad at ball data, et cetera. We all had a pretty good idea of what a good fantasy pitcher is, but that was putting everybody on more or less equal footing in terms of how far they're going to extend themselves over a whole season. And that's just not the case anymore. So I've made this stance before, but I'm going with it with even more conviction that the true aces, the pitchers who both dominate when they pitch and are fairly safe bet for close to 200 innings, if not more, are the pitchers worth paying for? And I'm not sure there are many worth paying up for beyond that, because I think mostly you're going to. going to be swapping out pitchers at the back end of your staff based on who's actually taking a turn at that current part of the season because we're going to see more of these

Lance McCullers types who are in and out of the rotation, more guys with these phantom injuries going on the 10D day DL fur stretches. It's just going to be a real headache. Well, those guys are there. There are, okay, well, just going by last year to do. Sale, Scherzer. Sale, Verlander, Glober, Granky, DeGrom.

I know Kershaw's had injury issues, but start by start, he pitches that deep into games, Archer, Carrasco exceeded 200 innings last year. I would say there are probably, probably about 20 pitchers. The cutoff for me,

and we do have... 20... 20 pitchers who what? Who could, who are given a... enough leeway that they could approach 200 innings and are actually good. That's not so bad. That sounds like a lot more than I was expecting.

Okay, so I would say Dallas Kichel fits in that category, right? Sure, he's very efficient. He's 17th in my rankings last year, and maybe that's the more precise cutoff. But, you know, for example, a pitcher who I absolutely don't trust to do that is one who I think may be a left-handed, no, a cinderguard. He's a great pitcher, James Paxton. I can't justify ranking him higher than 22nd because I don't think he's ever even thrown 140 innings in a major league season

and he's been around a while. I'm pretty sure he threw like 180 two years ago between the majors and the minors and that was with like I think he spent time in the bullpen as well. It's possible, but I'm to the point now where until I see a pitcher do it, I don't trust that he's capable of doing it. I don't trust that his team is going to allow him to do it.

Well, I do want to add this one thing Scott, you and I sort of feel like the powers that be in Major League Baseball could change the ball. And that could reduce offense a little bit. And then the World Series happens, so I don't know. Oh, well, that was awful. It got deservedly, it got tons of good press. Those were exciting games. And they were exciting games where tons of home runs happened to be hit.

But it was, you know, the circumstances under which the home runs were hit that made it exciting, not just the fact that a ton of home runs were hit. Right. If they do change the ball and, you know, juice it less, I think maybe pitchers could start going deeper into games. And there was this note in a Newsday article that said, quote, with the exception of Noah Cindergarde and Jacob de Grom, met starters may be shielded from facing lineups more than twice in a game, mirroring an industry-wide trend, according to a source. And we saw the Dodgers really take advantage of that. They didn't like their pitchers going deep into games and facing a lineup for a third time. And I just, I don't know, I totally see what you're saying. Unless they expand the rosters, I don't know that teams can get away with it for that long. They're going to kill their bullpen arms.

And eventually, I don't know. I feel like there's some negative dropout. You've got to let pitchers pitch deeper into games eventually. They're not doing it now, and I'm feeling what you're saying. But I wonder if that changes. And look at what the Dodgers did. Can they do that? And not in the playoffs, because, yes, they killed their bullpen arms in the playoffs.

They took it to an extreme in the postseason. But they basically were just, they had what. like an eight-man rotation, that they weren't always going one through eight every time. They had the most rotation depth in baseball. Like, most teams can't afford to just put Kenta Maeda on the 10-D-L, and here's Brandon McCarthy to give me six solid innings. But I think teams are going to start following that model. They are the most, but they have the highest payroll in baseball.

Like, it's, they pulled it off. They pulled it off well. I don't know that most teams can. It's always going to be tough, I think, because there's always going to be tradeoffs. And so when you look at things that might make it easier for pitchers to stay in the games, you know, limiting or unducing the ball, if we want to call it, I think the issue there is that pitchers have become so good at striking batters out that I don't know how you balance the game out.

What if the ball becomes unused again? And the home runs go back to normal. Yeah. Major league offenses are going to crash because it's not just the home runs have gone up. But the strikeouts have continued to rise. It's a weird situation and I think we're at a weird point in baseball where there's a lot of unknowns around the league-wide environment that make it hard to say for sure how things are going to look in a year or two. But Scott, you know, he was on this before last season two and this whole like, I can't trust the guy to throw 200 innings if he hasn't done it yet, and it turned out to be a pretty good strategy, especially with McCullors and Paxson,

who were at times very good, but couldn't put it together, couldn't stay healthy, which has been there a problem in the past. And I get what you're saying, Scott, and I agree. Well, I actually made the mistake of, remember, Kyle Hendricks, I was probably the high guy on Kyle Hendricks going into last year, and I said, look, his ERA is probably going to rise by a run, but the growth in terms of innings and the supporting cast he's going to have behind him

is still going to make him a top 20 fantasy pitcher. His ERA actually rose only 0.9. It didn't even rise a full run. And yet he was still a disappointment because that increase in innings didn't happen in the way I suspected it would. And like that's just, you know, actually Joel Sherman in the New York Post,

it was actually a Shohai Otani piece he wrote how a two-way player could fit in today's game. And, you know, he quotes one interested executive in saying whoever signs him is basically going to have to go with the sixth-man rotation. I think that's probably true. And, you know, some of the ideas Sherman presented

in this piece were that, and, you know, he had quotes backing it up. But basically the new wave of MLB, the executives is coming to realize, look, we don't train these guys in the minors to go 200 innings. Occasionally, a freak will emerge that's able to do that. But you shouldn't be asking them. You shouldn't be enforcing that standard on every pitcher who comes up.

You should be looking to put them in the position where the most comfortable, where you're going to get the most out of them. Obviously, he's relating it back to Otani, who's used to starting once a week in Japan. and why he's in a position to negotiate that sort of arrangement with whichever team he signs with, but also that the league is kind of beginning to trend that way anyway. I'm also just like I'm interested in these guys who are making the jump from the bullpen to back to the rotation in a lot of instances who have been able to sustain success. And I wonder if we start seeing more of that with guys like, Brad Peacock would be a good example, or Charlie Morton, guys that have seen this rise,

and there was someone else two years ago who saw their velocity jump up. Severino? Danny Duffy. Danny Duffy pitched out of the bullpen, saw his velocity rise, they moved him back to the rotation, and he sustained it. He's probably never going to be a 200 innings per year guy. He's had injuries. He's had issues getting deep into games. But I wonder if teams just start being okay with, like,

the Mets, go get me 12 outs or 18 outs or whatever. And we'll figure it out from there. Yeah. I mean, that's kind of what I was with the whole Andrew Miller phenomenon last postseason. I was kind of thinking we might see more of that. We didn't see as much as I thought, but it may be more of a gradual transition. There just might not be enough pitchers. And it's interesting you brought up Brad Peacock because that's kind of what inspired this

thought from me when I was away on my break. Somebody was criticizing I had Brack Peacock ranked 32nd among starting pitchers. and he's like, how could you rank him 32nd? There's no way he's going to throw 180 innings. Nobody else is. 35 pitchers threw 180 innings last year. So given what Brad Peacock can do otherwise, even assuming he doesn't reach 180 innings,

I think 32nd is fair. All right, interesting stuff, and we'll see what happens. I just, things are so cyclical, and right now it's like, yeah, let's maximize our relievers. I'm just waiting for relievers to start wearing down because of this strategy. We'll see, we'll see. The relievers are hot commodities right now,

and we'll see once free agency opens how much money they get. It's going to be a lot of money. So your news and notes. Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are unanimous rookies of the year in their respective leagues. Who do you like better next year, Aaron, Judge, or Cody Bellinger? I like Cody Bellinger. Strikeout rate is not nearly as bad. It showed improvement over the course of the season.

season. And then. Yeah, he had a terrible postseason, but still, I think, I think it's, it's, he's much younger than Judge, and I think he shows more room for improvement there than Judge. And his swing, just between the, the pull percentage and the flyball percentage, like, you couldn't ask for a guy more tailor made for hitting home runs. Except for Aaron, Judge. You could make that case.

I just, I just feel like they were pretty close all. already and Bellinger shows more upside to me while Judge is probably not going to get any better than this more likely it's worse. Judge almost certainly had the best season of his career last year. Oh yeah. Well, there's no shame in that. I think Judge, the MVP.

I think Judge is probably someone that looking ahead to next year, you're probably just going to have to not watch him. Like when he's on your team, just don't follow the numbers, never. like put a little like piece of tape on your screen over where his part in the box story is. What fun is that? He's just going to be so inconsistent. Oh, man.

Just going to have to live with the slumps that he went into in, was it July or August? Like, you're just going to have to live with that. It's going to be a part of his game. There was a lengthy stretch of this season where Aaron Judge was basically a punchline. And we all agreed it shouldn't be that way. But yeah. But that's part of his. Honestly, the guy might be the AL MVP this year.

And for a stretch of several weeks, his owners were pulling out their hair over him, probably trying to dump him in a trade somewhere, thinking they'd gotten the best out of him already. And of course, he finished the season on a great note. Yeah, I just think he's going to be one of those guys because there's so much movement in his swing, because he's so big. And because he's so strike up running, he's so selective that, you know, it's not just like he's, He's got huge holes in this swing. He's just, he waits for the right pitch. And sometimes it doesn't come for six and a half weeks.

The other thing was he had a shoulder injury. He had a shoulder injury during that time. So, you know, it just needs to be mentioned. But he is going to be inconsistent. He's going to be one of those guys. He was a lot better than Bellinger. He averaged 4.03 fantasy points per game. Belanger 3.56 fantasy points per game.

That's a big gap. But, yeah, Scott, you mentioned, Bollinger's younger. That's kind of what scares me with Judge. He was a 25-year-old rookie. Most of these great hitters come up. Some of them are like 20 years old, you know? I mean, 25 is old for a rookie.

Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. So, Chris, I don't know if you ever answer. Who do you like better next year? I'll probably take Judge ahead of Ballinger, but I think it's pretty close. Okay.

And while that is a big difference, I mean, 0.5 points per game is a big difference. I'm not making light of that. you know, 3.5 is still very high. Bellinger average more points per game than Chris Bryant last year. Just since not everybody's used to seeing the full spectrum of points per game, I'm just trying to put that into context. Yeah, a great year. No question.

How about the next four in AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? So it was Judge won followed by Andrew Benintendi and Trey Mancini. and then it was Bellinger one, followed by Josh Bell and Paul DeYoung. Okay. So who's the next best? Or I know it's Bellinger. Does anybody like Bellinger better than – I'm sorry. I know it's Ben Intendi.

Does anybody like Benintendi better than Judge or Bellinger? No. He's in a completely different class. I love Andrew Benetendi. I think he's going to be really, really good. But I think he's more in the like – Oh, man, I'm having trouble with Neville. names right now.

Current Nick Markakis, like peak Nick Markakis, who was a really good player? Picnic. Peak Nick. Peak Nick Markakis, meaning kind of what Christian Yellich is. Yes, yeah, I think maybe a little more speed. But Bellinger and Judge can be first round picks. I don't think Ben Intendi has that upside. You know, the next best after Bellinger and Judge is further

down the ballot, Adam, wasn't a top three in either league. Oh, who? Rees Hoskins. Ah, okay. That's who I'm going with third of last year's rookies. I think he finished either fourth or fifth in NL voting, and it was obviously just because he didn't have as many games played. But, yeah, he's like Bellinger and Judge, Hoskins is in my top ten outfielders for next year.

All three of them are. I wonder I wonder if you're Chris selling Andrew Benintendi a little short Okay First of all he's going to steal more bases Than these guys He had 20 last year

He only had one in 34 games in 2016 So I should say he could steal more And he's young He's going to be 24 in July So this will be his age 23 or I don't even know how that works But 23 years old It's going into next season Maybe he could crush them in batting average.

As a 23-year-old, Nick Marquakis, hit 300 with 23 homers, 112 RBI, 18 steals, 61 walks, 97 runs. I bet you that's first round. What's it? I bet you that's first round production, or close to it. Maybe. I definitely did not mean Nick Markechus as an insult. I want to make that clear. I am a Nick Markechis Stan.

Yeah. That's why I went with the contemporary comparison instead. Yeah. Okay. His reputation has changed a bit in the last decade. Because you often say a lot of really bad things about Nick Marcagos, and we never get it. Like, we don't even bring him up, and you're just always on Twitter just trashing Nick Marcaacus. It's very strange.

I love Nick Marcaacus. You can have him. Does anybody have interest in Paul DeYoung or Trey Mancini or Josh Bell next year? Of course. Paul Oledmiss de Young. All right. Who's your favorite in that group? Who gets drafted first?

Josh Bell, Mancini, or DeYoung? My favorite is Josh Bell. He is my 19th ranked first baseman. But that has a lot to do with the state of first base, more so than Bell. We've been publishing a top 20 at every position, going deeper and outfield and starting pitcher, of course, on the website. sneak peek at the rankings for 2018 or what those pieces are called. And in it, I say normally you look at a stat line like Josh Bell. You see a rookie put up that kind of stat line,

and everybody's tripping over themselves to put them at the top of their breakout list the following season. And the guy hit with good plate discipline. He hit, what, 25 home runs? 26 home runs as a rookie. It's a great rookie year. I mean, he nearly won in all rookie. Well, he didn't nearly win it. But in a year where there wasn't some kind of freak like Bellinger, he would have had a very good case to be rookie of the year.

But there's just so many good hitting first baseman. I mean, you had Matt Olson coming on late. You had Justin Boer, who had a very good year. If you eliminate that D.L stint he had, I couldn't justify putting Bell higher than 19th. But I do think he has top 15, maybe even top 12 potential at that position. Can he hit 26 home runs again next year with a. 300 Babbup. Because if he can, then all of a sudden you're looking at a guy who probably hits like

275, 280, and could become like a Jose Abraeu type player. Yeah, who I have, I think, sixth. And Bell was a 255 hitter with 26 home runs. He had a terrible September, but the three months before that, he batted 288 with 14 home runs. It looks like about a 900 OPS from June to August for Josh Bell. All right, season recap. Actually, first, six candidates to win 2018 rookie of the year from our Mike Exisa on CBSSports.com in the American League.

And I can just tell everybody, I'm sorry, our audio is just awful today. We are using some backup equipment in a crappy room and having some internet issues. And Chris is coughing. So it's been... And I'm back. And Scott's back. He's ruined everything. Okay, Chris?

Yeah, I'm fine. Okay, good. So I apologize for any... This has not been the best. sounding podcast. But here are the three in the American League from Mike. Willie Calhoun, Texas outfielder, who came over in the Darvish deal. Tampa Bay starting pitcher Brent Honeywell, Yankees infielder, Glaber Torres. Willie Calhoun, Honeywell, and Torres. You guys like prospects. You guys like these ones? Yeah, I mean, they're all, you know, top 50 type. Sure.

I mean, Glaber Torres is probably a top 10 type. Brent Honeywell might be the best pitching prospect in baseball. I think the reason, I mean, Honeywell and Torres are clearly a different class of prospect than Calhoun, who was moved in the Darvish deal, partly because he's a guy who doesn't really have a position defensively, was a second baseman in the minors, played left field a little for the Rangers, might end up being a DH, but good power. Of these three, he's the most likely to be there from the start of the season, and obviously that counts for something.

I think Honeywell is at a disadvantage just because of what's going on at starting pitcher. I doubt he's going to come up and throw even 150 innings. So he would probably be my choice. I mean, you got Torres recovering from Tommy John's surgery. Who knows when he's going to be ready. They are saying he's going to have a chance to win the third base job from opening day. If he's healthy. Yeah.

So my choice is probably Honeywell, but it's not, I don't think it's going to be a runaway by any stretch. To the National League, we have Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna, Nationals outfielder Victor Robles, and Cincinnati third baseman Nick Senzel. Chris, we've got Acuna, Robles, and Senzel. I'm just going to assume Scott and I are going to agree on this. I might be the only person in the world that loves Ronald Acuna more than Scott. I don't know that I love him most. I don't know that I love them the most among people outside this room. Yeah, he put up absolutely ridiculous numbers.

As a 19-year-old at AAA, he hit 344 with a 940 OPS. Mike Trout hit 326 with a 958 OPS as a 19-year-old in AA. Acuna was at AAA when he did that. that. The next Mike Trout says Chris Towers. Good stuff. Yeah, I've made that claim a few times about prospects, so I'm a little, I'm a little hesitant, but no, it's worth pointing out the way he dominated and got better at every level, got better in terms of plate discipline at every level, too. So he probably is the top prospect in baseball. And there seems to be no doubt among Braves beat writers he's going to be on the opening day roster. So, yeah, he's got, he's

got to be the clubhouse favorite for rookie of the year. That was an interesting gurgle. Who's responsible for that? Was that me? Let's say it was you. All right. Name that gurgle. So let's go to the season recaps for the Orioles, the Blue Jays, and the Rays. Not so much a season.

I've got to find a better name for this segment. It's absolutely not a season recap. But one player who will be better next year and one player who will be worse for the Baltimore Orioles, Scott White, our returning guest of honor. You have honors here. Who will be better next year? I think about a guest, Adam.

Yeah, it's true. I have totally made myself at home here. I have one, my left leg perched up on the seat I'm sitting on. Oh. I am too comfortable for being in a work environment. But anyway, so who are I doing? Better or worse next year? Baltimore.

Yeah, who's going to be better? Who's going to be better? Mani Machado is going to be better. Oh, you took my obvious. What a layup. Yeah, what a layup. Wow. I mean, he's due.

No, I think it's worth bringing up because I got some I recently tweeted out my sneak peek at the third base rankings for last year and Josh Donaldson is only sixth on that list. And I got a lot of, oh, how can Josh Donaldson

only be sixth? Considering the monster he was in the second half last year. And one of the five ahead of him is, of course, Mandy Machado, who wasn't nearly as good as Josh Donaldson last year, at least taking the sum of the season line. Or even if you could compare second half, he wasn't as good. But been a first round caliber hitter the two years prior to last year is still only 25 years old. So, you know, this amazing talent in the early stages of his prime. And even though his second half wasn't big enough to correct what went wrong in the first half,

he basically righted the ship in the second half. So there really shouldn't be any doubt that whatever plagued him in the first half, you know, even at the time, some of the batted ball dad really didn't support what he was doing, the struggles he was having. I think it was just this fluky thing. And there's no reason not to bet on him making a full, recovery next year, completely bouncing back and being an obvious top five third basement again. All right, so Manny Machado will get better.

Chris, that was the guy you were going to say. I will say Mark Trumbo will get better. He will be 32. I don't know what the heck happened to him last year. He batted 234, which is the third time he's hit 234 or 235 in his career. But only 23 home runs in 146 games. What happened? He just stopped hitting the ball hard.

He hit one of the worst hard contact rates of his career. Trumbo hit 256 with 47 home runs in 2016. And then he got a three-year contract, and he's stunk last year. So Mark Trumbo will be better next year. I actually have a different one. Oh, cool. You know, when you go to a Mexican restaurant, you order fajitas, and they bring you the sizzling plate with the little wood thing under it,

and they tell you don't touch it, it's hot. And you're like, I know not to touch it, and then you touch it because you're an idiot. No, I don't do that, but I just love the fajitas. You're the idiot. Kevin Gosman. You're a fajitas. Had a 341 ERA in the second half with 9.6 strikeouts per 9, 1.20 whip.

He was great in the second half. Okay, he'll be better. Let's just say he does it. Let's just say he pretends April is July. What is his deal, right? Like he has to throw his splitter a lot to be effective. He has to throw a splitter a lot and that. And he doesn't like throwing it at the beginning of the year or something?

Yeah, he needs to develop calluses. Kevin start playing guitar or do some rock climbing, build up those calluses on your hands. Let's go. Chris, you need to send him a calendar and rename the months and like put the opponents on the calendar, like, you know, coordinate with his schedule. Yeah. You need to send him something to make him think that April is September or whatever. I mean, it might just be a situation where I just don't draft Kevin Gosman at all.

And then when he gets dropped in every single league in April, I pick him. up and stash him for two months. Who's going to be worse for the Baltimore Orioles next year, Chris? Tim Beckham. Oh, yeah, him. But he hit like a star for 50 games, and really it was like 30 games. So Tim Beck. Scott, who's going to be worse for the Orioles?

Tray Mancini is going to be my pick for him, for this. And he was probably my most frequent on my top 10 sleeper hitters list for week to week just because he never quite got to that 80% owned threshold. But the numbers were very steady. He was a very productive hitter. He wasn't the miners too. But I'm not willing to bet on him repeating it from one year to the next because the peripherals just don't seem to support what he was doing. First of all, he had a 352 BAP-IP, and it wasn't driven by like an abnormally high line drive rate.

In fact, line drive rate's kind of low. He managed to hit 24 home runs, but he didn't even have a 30% fly ball rate. It was also very low. So he's hitting for good power despite not elevating the ball. He's hitting a high bad bit despite not hitting line drives. And I just don't think that formula adds up in the long run. All right, Tray Mancini, you will not be as good. You will not finish top three in rookie of the year voting.

Also, I put as a note for Tray Mancini, I'm not sure if you saw this. Tray Mancini, 293, 24 home runs, blah, blah, blah, comma, perennially. Scott's sleeper hitters column. Were you not listening to Scott? No, I know he said that, but I don't know that he saw that I put it in the notes. And if he's not drafted in 80% leagues, maybe he'll be in my week one top 10 sleeper hitters. But it doesn't mean I think he's as good as he actually was last year. I think Jonathan's scope will be worse, guys.

It just seemed like a charmed season for him. 293 batting average, 32 home runs. He played 160 games. Hard contact rate has gone up and down each of the last four season. seasons between 26% to 36%. I think he'll be worse. I don't know that he'll be bad, but he even got shortstop eligibility this year,

just like everything went right for Jonathan's scope. What do you agree or disagree? I disagree to an extent. I think Jonathan's Sope's pretty good. He's a top five second baseman for me next year. I don't... The idea that it was just a charm season, I think could be accurate.

I mean, you're basically, by ranking him as high. as I do. I'm relying on the fact that a guy in his mid-20s, the power gains he made last year are sustainable. I mean, the leap in ISO was basically the biggest difference for scope in 2017 from 2016.

So if it was just kind of a fluky thing, then you're going to be right. I mean, peripherally, you know, he's not a golden boy peripherally. Yeah, does he remind you at all of Rognetto Adore? He reminds me a lot of Rognito door. Right. And, you know,

maybe last year was just a cursed season for Ruegededadodore as opposed to 2016 being a charmed season. Yeah, I don't be that bad. It's both players, the profile is very home run dependent. And sometimes things just, sometimes just something will be off for a player one year. It happens to be power for scope next year. There's not a lot to fall back on. If you're, if you're, if you're relying, home runs are still relatively rare events. So if you're relying on like someone hitting 33 versus 25 home runs to like make the big difference,

33 to 25 home runs is that can just be random. Yeah. Yeah. So let's go to the Blue Jays. One player who will be better. One player who will be worse. Okay, Scott, you can start. Who's going to be better on the Blue Jays next year?

Now, better on the Blue Jays was a tricky one for me. And I think I think the most obvious one, well, I'm not going to go with the most obvious one. The most obvious one is Aaron Sanchez, but I'm not going to get into that. I'm going to go with Marco Estrada. You're such a thief. You steal everybody's stuff. You're not going first. What a jerk. I didn't have these revealed to me ahead of time. Fine. I believe you.

I mean, the thing is, I don't even want to make a strong endorsement of Marco Estrada. I think this is something Chris and I both. talked about a lot last year. Just the, um, his, his, his,

his profile is a pitcher, a guy who might top out at 90 miles per hour. Uh, he's so dependent on location and it's just hard to have that impeccable location all season long. But last year it seemed, he had that stretch where it was just so awful for so long that it gave him a nearly five ERA,

despite the fact that, um, you know, it was one of the best strikeout rates of his career. So, um, I think things play out just a little differently for Marco Estrada this year, and his ERA improves by a run or more, and he ends up being a solid mixed league option again.

Yeah, my thing with Estrada is that he had seven starts last year of seven or more innings and two or fewer earn runs. And you can't do that if you're a bad pitcher. So he just – he had a stretch where his change-up stunk. we talked about the location ends up with a 490A and a 1.38 whip but yeah he's better than that All right Chris so then who's going to be worse next year Please steal Scots

Well then I'll go with the obvious one Which Scott seems to avoid the obvious one When it comes Justin Smoke's going to be worse He already was in the second half He had like 241 after the All-Star break I think that's a pretty obvious one Like there are obvious improvements that he made and I think he's for real to some extent,

but he's not going to hit 38 homers and 270 again next year. Yeah, that was my guy, too. Yeah. Strata and Smoke. No, I mean, it's my guy, too. And I do think there are underlying, the second half is discouraging because the second half is reminiscent of the old Justin Smoke, but there are still underlying numbers that support the breakout he had for the season long,

breakout he had improved flight ball rate, drastically reduced strikeout rate. I think he's a top 15 first baseman next year. But for a while this year, he was like a top six first baseman. Yeah. Okay. So there it is. Estrada will get better. Smoke will get worse.

Tampa Bay raise. Chris, Steele Scots guy. Who will be better for the raise? I mean, should I go with the other really, really? really, really obvious one here. Chris Archer. Chris Archer's going to be better. He's not going to have a 4 ERA.

I don't know. I mean, what is Chris Archer at this point? Yeah, that's a A strikeout pitcher. I still, you know, we kind of started this podcast talking about Chris Archer in a different context. You know, this is the second

straight year. He's had an ERA just over four. Yep. And, you know, the whip was even worse this year. he seems to be a pitcher who consistently has a higher ERA than his FIP. Yeah. Well, to a certain extent, yes. It's a little, it's perplexing.

Because he can eat innings. He can strike out tons of batters. I think those two aspects alone make him a top, someone who's absolutely, you never consider him less than like a top 15 fantasy pitcher because of that. But does he have the upside to go beyond that? If he gets traded and he actually has a chance to win more than 12 games, maybe. So for that reason, I would say he's going to improve. If he goes to the NL and isn't facing the DH every time, maybe that helps the E.R.

This is a kind of weird comparison I'm going to make, but just stay with me. Chris Sale. It's more, I think Chris Archer is an extreme version of Chris Sale. but Chris Sale from 2015 and 2016 was someone that we thought should have been better than he was. He had a 341 ERA in 2015, had a 334 ERA in 2016, but he piled up innings,

got a ton of strikeouts, doesn't walk a lot of guys, a lot of the same things that Chris Archer does well. Chris Archer obviously doesn't have that kind of control, but even better strikeout pitcher. All of a sudden, Chris Sale turns in maybe the best season of his career last year. I'm not saying that's going to happen with Chris Archer.

He's obviously not Chris Sale, but I think he could have a 330 ERA next season instead of a four ERA without really changing anything about him. I think he needs another pitch. I think he's mostly a two-pitch pitcher, and that kind of hurts Chris Archer. He sort of defied the odds. Is it right he's with two pitches? And I think he might be more of a three-pitch pitcher because he throws different types of fastballs and whatnot, but he doesn't throw it all. his change-up very often, and I'm wondering if that would be something that takes him to the next level. I'm sure in February we're going to hear that he's been working on his change-up and plans to use it a lot more.

Yeah, but don't discount it because it made Luis Severino a Cy Young candidate. Yeah. And he's on the trust. Stephen Strathberg had an arsenal change that seemed to put him over the top, too. Can't remember specifically what it was. But we have already seen Chris Archer pitch at that level is what I'm saying. I don't think he's worse. We have, but even then he was more hitable.

Like even when he had the low three, ZRA, he did it a couple years in a row, 14 and 15. Even then he was more hitable than you'd expect him to be given his stuff. Right. That's why I'm saying I think low threes rather than like some could, you might look at him and say, well, he strikes out so many guys. This could be a legitimate ace. And I think it's more like that distinction between ace and number one kind of guy. I don't think he cracked into that ace. range. So Scott, who's your guy?

It's going to be better for the race. I'm going to go with Alex Colomé as the Ray who will be worse next year. And I think, you know, I keep seeing teams that are on the lookout for a closer this offseason. His name coming up is a possibility. Oh, he's a- Cardinals were just mentioned in a report today. What was that? Cardinals were just mentioned in a report today. Okay. And I think his deficiencies last year were masked by the fact that he, He led the majors and saves.

Major League leader of 47 saves. It made him a highly productive fantasy pitcher. It put him at the top of the leaderboard and the stat that's most valued among closers. But his strikeout per nine rate was only 7.8 on the year, dropped from 11.3 in 2016. And 7.8 in today's game for a closer, I mean, 7.8 strikeouts per 9 for a closer

would have been unappetizing, even back in the days when like Bob Wickman was a closer. It would be less than desirable. In today's game, 7.8 strikeouts per 9 from your closer is just, it's a disaster waiting to happen. And you look at Colomé's career, I mean, granted, he's, you know, he spent the early stages of it as a starter. But it's not like he's established as this big overpowering late-hitting bat miss. Or he had 2016 where he did that kind of looked like he was trending that way. late in 2015 when he made that conversion, but I don't know what happened to him last year.

If it happens again, I don't think he lasts as a closer. Okay. One player who will be worse next season. Wait, but maybe I wasn't paying attention. Colomé, you think, will be better? No, I thought maybe I got confused. Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. So if you weren't listening to the argument, Adam, you'd know.

That's what I thought. That's why I was confused. Like, okay, you think Columet will be worse next year? Yes. Okay, okay. So who do you think will be better next year for the race? Sorry, I messed it all up. Rusty.

He's rusty. So, yeah, the raise, I've seen some talk of the race potentially blowing it up this offseason. But this exercise tells me maybe that's a bad idea because I look at their roster and it feels like pretty much everyone could get better. Oh, sorry, he's a free age. And I said pretty much. Yeah. is my pick to be worse

Yeah, that's what he was reacting to. Justin Smoke of the Tampa Bay Area. Of those actually, under contract, it seems like they all could get better. I'll pick one for the exercise. I'll go with Wilson Ramos, who, you know, I'm just going to kind of toss out last year coming back from a horrendous knee injury

for a catcher especially and, you know, kind of rushing things to return mid-season. And he wasn't even that bad. No, he wasn't great, but like a 740 OPS for a catcher with 11 homers in 64 games. Yeah, 11 homers. I mean, that right there. That's like Wellington Castillo's full season. As weak as catcher is, I would bet on Wilson Ramos, I don't know, approaching 20 homers.

I think maybe he's saying he will hit 20 homers is going a little far, but he certainly could. And that would make him, the current state of that position, I think he has. could easily break into the top five next year. All right. So Chris Towers, who will be worse from the raise next year? Justin Smoke. Logan Morrison. Yes.

Yes. Okay. So you want to go into that or just he's Justin's going? Long, long, long track record of Logan Morrison not being any good at all. Two good months where he all of a sudden thinks he's like better than Gary Sanchez. gets the spat off to the media again like it's 2008. And then he turned back into Logan Morrison. Yeah.

Now, he did have one of the most drastic changes in fly ball rate of any hitter last year. And you're, you know, you're big flyball revolution guy. Yeah, yeah. But then if you go out and have a sub-750 OPS in the second half of the season, I'm going to assume that you are, you know, players change. Yes. And I'm a little guilty of this with Kevin Gosman. Like, Kevin Gosman probably is who he is.

But Logan Morrison definitely is. Like, this is deep enough in his career that, like, Logan Morrison's not going to hit 38 home runs again next year. And if he doesn't hit 38 home runs again next year, he's worse. He's not going to be fantasy relevant. Oh, loud enough of that. If he hits 29 home runs. If he hits 29 home runs that he's playing every day, I think he's still fantasy relevant.

He's not, you know, as relevant. That probably means he gets 240. he's got well it depends what you mean by relevant will he be universally owned probably not but he'll be he'll be josh bell like if that's what he ends up being yeah i'd rather have josh bell me too but it won't be that big of a difference it won't be that big of the difference i'd rather have just it won't be that big of the difference between what josh bell was in 2016 2017 but he was pretty widely available for long stretch of the season oh i know but he was certainly fantasy relevant yeah

I mean, I don't have rankings. I can't see how I would put Logan Morrison in the top 20 for sure and probably not 24. Who are you going to take Logan Morrison or Greg Bird? I'll take Greg Bird easily. I mean, even if everything goes right for Greg Bird, isn't he basically what Logan Morrison was this past year? Yeah, Logan Morrison's not going to be that. Maybe Bird's best case scenario is a little better in terms of batting average. I'm just telling you now, like, I'll take Lomo.

Greg Bird is going to be an all-star. If Logan Morrison played Yankee Stadium, I might take him. But I just think Greg Byrd's game is perfectly suited to Yankee Stadium, too. I'm talking about Greg Bird all the time, because he will be an all-star. And I'm going to use my D.D.Gogorius, I don't know what the, like, the, like, ammo that I built up for being right about Dita-Gugorius, I'm going to use as a Yankees Homer every day for Greg Bird, because he is going to be so good this year. What about Justin Bora? Where do you have Justin Bora Scott? Oh, well, let me pull up that column because it's not...

It'll just take a second here. First-office rankings. Well, you know what we get to tell Scott about? We get to tell him about the All-Hlloween team. Yes. We have more names. So, curiously, Logan Morrison, I'm actually surprised to see this. He's not in my top 20.

Either. Yes. Justin Boar, is that who you brought up at him? Justin Boar? He's 18th. One spot ahead of smoke? One spot ahead of Bell. I actually have smoked well.

Whoa. Wow. Yeah. Scott. Justin Boar's better than Justin Smoke. Scott, my man. Though he drops to 14th if we're talking strictly points leagues because Carlos Santana and Matt Carpenter are both in that same range. Scott, you're way too low on Justin Bored.

I'm just going to use your own and You said he was making a stud turn last year. He got hurt. Don't forget about the stud turn. Don't forget about it. Didn't really even show, like, didn't have the Justin Smoke, Logan Morrison's second half swoon either. Came back from the injury and like only four home runs, but everything else was still really good. Justin Boer's really good.

Here's the last sentence of my write-up for Justin Boar, 18th ranked Justin Boar. The strikeout walk, line drive, and hard contact rates all point to a player with top 10 upside. Top five upside. First base is just a position where 25 players have top 10 upside. All right. Don't hold it against me. Oh, I'm holding it against me. I'm holding it against me.

Absolutely. Has Joplin Smoke ever eaten donuts during the home run derby? I think not. You don't know. So, guys, what the hell was I saying? Oh, Halloween team. Yes. Okay, so Scott, we've come up with a roster of players who have Halloween-type.

That was interesting. Halloween-ish-type names. The manager's Ned Ghost. The bench coach is Greg Zonby. Scary Sanchez. Scary Sanchez is on there. It's great. We all loved it.

Mike Boo Staccas. So we have more names. This is from Andrew. Kevin Scaremeyer and Freddie. Well, it doesn't really work. Yeah, these are not good, Andrew. Kevin Scaremeier and Freddie Freakman. I think Kevin Scaremire is very good.

You think so? Yeah. But it's Keirmeier, right? It's not Kermeyer. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It does matter. Nope.

And then Jared says Albert Buhlholz and Justin Bore. I don't know. I don't know. Baleigh Skeleton. I like Buhl's more than Bore. Blake Skeleton. Blake Skeleton. That's good.

I've had so much fun. with this. I hope it's Halloween every week. Blake Skeleton? Yeah. Who are you talking about? Blake's now. Oh, gosh. That is, I will just say, that is the reaction I am always hoping for.

Who are you talking about? Oh, God. That's what Chris is going for. That's great. It's not good. All right, here's, we don't really have much time for emails, but let's see what we can get through. Pedro and Venezuela. Questions on three young players for 2018.

Alex Reyes, any news on him? Brent Honeywell. Could he land in Tampa's rotation? I think we kind of talked about that one. Probably not out of spring training. David Dahl, is he still in the Rockies plan? So Reyes and David Dahl, I guess. I have no idea on David Dahl.

Alex Reyes, I did see a report the other day that they are expecting him and Luke Weaver to challenge four rotation spots coming out of spring training. You know, we really should be asking the Marlins what's going to happen with Alex Rayas, right? Stanton doesn't want to go to St. Louis. St. Louis. Really? Reported. Boston and St. Louis, apparently. When was this reported?

Yesterday. But then I thought I saw a report refuting that. Everybody's got reports. Okay. Not me, though. No, David Dahl, I mean, yeah, David Dahl's the really curious one here because he just kind of got steamrolled last year.

and you have to think he's still an asset for the Rockies, but I don't think they're in a hurry to create a spot for him. I'm going to ask you a question. You know, fill in the blank. If Giancarlo Stanton got traded to the Colorado Rockies, I would draft him blank overall. I mean, realistically, as hard as he hits the ball, I'm not sure. Like, the course field effect, I think, is negated.

Oh, no, he, he has. Actually, the deed to Cores Field is in John Carlos Stanton's name. His stats are unbelievable. Last I checked, let me see. I mean, the thing is, you never get a true breaking ball at Corsfield. In 23 games, he has hit 10 home runs and 9 doubles. He's driven in 24 runs. He has a 286 average with a 1089 OPS.

Pretty good. So fill in the blank, draft Stanton blank overall. I think does he become a top five guy at course like he could I think he could he could have 150 RBI 120 run season you know he'd be more injury prone in the thin air I don't know if that's true less oxygen to the blood yeah you know maybe I don't know I've never I've never been out there I don't know pseudos science of it he yeah he could have a ridiculous season All right.

I think we're going to cut it off there. And I'm not sure we're going to have a show next week because it's Thanksgiving. But we'll definitely have one in two weeks. And we'll probably have a mailbag at that point since we'll have some backup on the emails. I want to thank everybody for listening. I want to apologize for the crappy audio quality. But you're welcome for bringing Scott White back. And Scott, good to have you back.

Welcome again. Hooray, glad you're here. I'm glad to be here. I missed it. This is the part I miss the most, Adam. The easy part where you don't actually have to do work. The podcast? Yeah, you're not really working when you're podcasting, so there you go.

Wow. You know, some people... Definitely everyone's favorite part. Some people only do this sort of thing for their jobs, okay? Yes, but the, like, the easiest part of the job is the on the air part. It's all the... I wasn't even poking fun of you. I just meant, like, you know, like radio on air, air.

personalities. That's basically what this is. It's just a very small segment of what we do. Okay, so that's it for me, Scott, and Chris. Everybody, if we don't talk to you next week, have a great Thanksgiving. Scott, did you miss all my crappy outros? Bye.