Fantasy Baseball Today - 11/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Mock Draft Strategies

Episode Date: November 28, 2017

How do you approach mock drafts (1:00)? Do you try to draft the best team or do you experiment with different strategies and see what happens? Our guys don't see eye to eye on this issue ... Taking you through the first three rounds of our 12-team, H2H Points draft (8:00) with some player debates and much more. Should Bryce Harper be a Top 5 pick? Is Giancarlo Stanton clearly better than Aaron Judge? Can you pass up an elite hitter in Round 2 for an elite SP? ... We review our teams and strategies beginning with Chris (40:00), then Scott (45:30), then Adam (56:15) who prioritized SPs the most ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

R.A. Dickie, Steve's throwing knuckle. Scott likes using jiffs the most. Adam loves E.R.A. and auto tunes himself this way. Paxton's regression, screams. Half, 12 team head to headpoints. It's fantasy baseball today. A day early. Usually we're here on Wednesday.

It is Tuesday to 28th of November. And I would... Yeah? Just publish it on Wednesday. No, I don't want to publish it on Wednesday. I mean, it'll be like... We can assume, like, the rest of the off season, nothing will happen between now and then,

because nothing happens this offseason. Right? Yeah, it's boring, but I don't mind it. I don't mind it. It's fine because that means we're going to have a flurry of activity in, you know, a few weeks. The winter meetings. The winter meetings, there's going, some serious stuff is going down at the winter meetings. You can be sure.

Now, Scott asked us an interesting question off the air, and we're going to answer it on the air. 2% milk. I prefer, actually 1%. I've already changed my mind. 1% milk. That's what I usually buy. Okay. That's weird in and of itself, but that wasn't the question I asked.

Why? What's your, what's your milk of choice? 2%. 2%. Everybody goes 2%. We've made the switch to 2%. We used to be a whole milk family. Whole milk.

Oh, yeah. My goodness. Which is heavy cream. Yeah. But we've made the, for health reasons, we've made the switch to 2%. This is fascinating listener. The skim plus. I recommend the skim plus. Very, very good. All right, Scott, what was the real question you asked? So this was actually inspired. We were having a conversation about some draft strategy pieces we may be writing in, you know, February-ish.

Or may not be. Or may not be. And what was discovered? And this is like one of those situations where you find out, you know, somebody either faces the showerhead or they have their back to the showerhead when they show. shower and you never realized that anybody did it a different way. Basically, I found out. I do. I do. What is it wrong with you? Well, it's not actually getting waterboarded every single time. It's not actually hitting your face. It's hitting your chest. Anyway, you don't pivot. I pivot. It probably depends on the height of the person. But that's, I'm getting us off track again. Yeah, you are. The point, I discovered that I was the only one in that room who approaches every mock draft just trying to build the best team I can, the best way I know how. Other people use, other people experiment with

different methods. He keeps stacking the deck in his favor in this argument. You notice what he just did, right? No. He's the only person who's trying to build the best team. The rest of us clowns, the rest of us chuckleheads are screwing up building the worst teams we can on purpose. Building the best team the best way I know how well it sounds like you and others everyone else in the room heath was included in that they use each mock draft as an opportunity to test a completely different strategy one they don't necessarily believe in but one they just kind of want to try out and then try and build a good team around that so that i i like that that that that to me is hard to wrap my head around because i just go into every competition wanting to try and do the very

best I can and I see mock drafts themselves as competition. Yeah, but they're also good learning experiences, you know. I learn a lot. It challenges, just from seeing what I have to do, how I have to react to other people. It challenges your assumptions. It's an intellectual exercise that allows you to test the things that you believe to be true. You're assuming I'm like on autopilot during my mock drafts, though. I'm still having to react to everybody else in it, because.

comes really difficult at times. Look, not all of us have found the one true way to win in fantasy sports, Scott. Well, I know. The rest of us mortals. You didn't know my answer to that question, so you asked me before the show, and I didn't answer yet. So I typically am more like Scott. I typically want to do well in every mock draft.

I don't like putting together a bad team, even if it's a fake team. And I know you want to do well, but Chris, but my priority is not necessarily to test strategies. My priority is to put together, you know, the best team I can. But that's really when I'm very confident in my strategies, which I'm not just yet. So I tried in this draft to be more pitcher-heavy than I ever have before. Three of my first six picks were starting pitchers. Five of my first 10 picks were starting pitchers, although one of them was a RP-eligible Brad Peacock. So I went, you know, off script, I guess. I usually don't do what I did, but I tried it this particular draft because I wanted to see if this was the strategy I wanted, if I wanted to go more

picture heavy, more starting pitcher heavy early. I alluded to that in our previous podcast, but we didn't actually talk about the draft. So I got a little experimental in this one, but typically I just, typically I'm confident in my strategies and I just go out there and try to draft the best team, and I don't mess around all that much. I leave that up to the other people. There's always somebody's going to do it. And I can say, well, this person took a catch early and this is how his team turned out. This guy took three. That was a point I brought up in the conversation we were having at them. You can always look at what somebody else did and decide whether or not you want to

incorporate that into your strategy. And also, what you mentioned, this early in draft prep season, do you really know exactly what you want to do? I think you figure that out by trying what you think is exactly what you wanting to do and seeing how your team turns out. And if that didn't turn out very well, then maybe that's not exactly what you want to do. But I don't think that's exactly what everyone else. That's the thing is.

That's what everyone else is trying to do. That's not the same. I'm going to draft pitchers in the first three rounds just to see what happens. What's wrong with that? What's wrong with that? It's not just to see what happens. It's, is this the right strategy? Yeah, that's fine.

What will my team look like if I try to draft with a certain strategy in mind, knowing that there are thousands of people who are going to draft with that strategy? My strategy isn't that much of a blank slate. There's some maneuverability from year to year based on that. It's challenging your own assumptions. Okay. All right, well, let's talk about the draft here. So what we're going to do today, this will be two parts. We'll finish up next week.

But today we'll look at the first, I don't know, three or four rounds and see what we think. And then we'll talk about our specific teams and what our strategies were, how we constructed the teams. And let's get into it. It was 12 teams. It was a head-to-head points league. So, you know, most of you who listen are familiar with head-to-head points leagues. For those of you that don't play in it, we will certainly talk about which picks were better. in points versus roto or categories.

But points leagues, you know, you get a point for a single, two points for a double, three for a triple, four for a Homer, a point for an RBI, a point for a run, a point for a walk, minus half a point for a strikeout. Those are hitters. Two points for a steal. So, you know, keep that in mind. And then points leagues, basically for hitters, they reward extra base hits like doubles and triples that don't get rewarded in standard categories leagues.

They reward walks if you play in a league that doesn't have OBP. they penalize for strikeouts. For pitchers, innings are really, really important. Wins are seven points, losses are minus five, quality start, three points, half a point for a strikeout. And then you lose points when you give up base runners when you give up runs. But I guess the points league rewards innings and rewards extra base, just getting on base and extra base hits and plate discipline and things like that

that you wouldn't normally see in a five-by-five categories league. All right, so with that said, let's talk about it. 12 teams head-to-head, three outfielders, no corner infield, no middle infield, five starting pitchers, two relievers, fairly shallow rosters, 21 rounds, 16 starters. First pick, Al Malki, or you remember him? Mike Trout. Trout, Al-Tuvay, Goldschmidt. Those are your first three picks. By the way, Chris had the fifth pick.

Scott had the seventh pick. I had the 11th pick. So would you experiment and take someone else other than Trout at number one? I think it's actually, it's an interesting question, isn't it? Like, I don't think we're at the point where Mike Trout is just the default, no question about it. You take him number one. Yeah, we are. You're the biggest Mike Trout fan in the world.

That's true. And Jose Al-Tuve is really good. I think Jose Al-Tuve, because he hits for power now, because he's a run producer, I think he's right there with Mike Trout. You know, it's not every draft you get the number one overall pick. I get the number one overall pick. I'm not messing it up. I'm going Trout. Yeah, and Outfield is not as deep as it used to be.

So I think that used to be an argument against Trout. Well, wait on Outfield, Outfield's so deep. It's not. I think the argument for not, and I'm not saying Trout isn't number one. I'm just saying I think it is a, I think it's a question. I don't think, you know, Mike Trout hasn't just been the number one player every year. And it's not like, it's like a different, it's not like Jose Al Tuve's got, you know, it's not like Moogie Betts. where, you know, Mookie Betz was better than Mike Trout two years ago,

but there was no track record for it. Jose Al-Tube has been better than Mike Trout more than once in the last four seasons. I'm going to blow your mind right now. Jose Al-Tuve was the number seven hitter in points leagues. So, like, Blackman, Stanton, Vado, Judge, Goldschmidt, and Aranado, were all better. Maybe it's more of a question in Rota. Sure. You get the steals.

You get the batting average. Maybe, but like just saying, oh, well, Trout's not automatically number one at the end of every year. He's always right there. I mean, it's just like for how many years, five straight years? Right, but Al-Tubez been right there in Roto, too. For two years. It's not the same. It's not the same.

And, you know, I'm fine with Al-Tube second, but I don't think you mess with it. And your point about the depth and outfield, Adam, one of my biggest takeaways from this draft, and I wrote about it when you see the full draft results on the site, they're already up. Check that out. You know, as the draft went on, and obviously this being one of those formats

where there's no corner infield spot, no middle infield spot, I discovered, and this was true last year too, I discovered that I was much more excited about the infielders that were still available than the outfielders that were still available. The quality of outfielers just drops off so much earlier than really every infield spot, except for maybe shortstop.

So, you know, that's another point in Trout's favor. Yeah. All right. So it was Trout. And then I guess, you know, is this the consensus easy top three in some order? Trout, Al-Tuve, Goldschmidt? Probably. I think you can make a case for others.

I think you can make a case for Black Men. You can make a case for Aeronado. But that's probably my one, two, and three. Trout, Al-Tuvay, and Goldschmidt. And then we had Bryce Harper, four. Any issues with that? He played 111 games last year. You know, you can make a case for him, too.

I don't know why I said Blackmun over him. I actually rank Harper ahead of Blackmun. Right. And I'm sitting there at 11 with no idea when Bryce Harper is going to get picked. It just changes every year. Everybody knows how great he is at this point, but we all fear the health. And I just said, look, my general philosophy in these types of fairly shallow leagues, right? There's a lot of hitting on waivers.

I'm just going to take the best play. Harper, yeah, he might miss time, but on a per game basis, he's so good. If he falls to me at 11, it's an absolute no-brainer. I didn't expect it to happen, but I kind of thought he might go like sixth or seventh. He went fourth. So, yeah, so he's awesome. Charlie Blackman, fifth to Chris. You want to talk about that?

He took him over Betz, Aeronado, Correa, pitchers. I wasn't going to take a pitcher, and I don't think that's a surprise to anyone. And I just, the leap that Charlie Black, has made over the last really year and a half because this happened right around the all-star break in 2016 where he took another step forward from being a very good player to like a thousand OPS guy the lineup he plays in I just I think he's the best option there but it's you know thin margins between him and an Aeronado or him and bets or him and you know I don't know if Correa is in that discussion yet.

You know who is in that discussion? His name is not going to come up for a while, but actually one of the biggest debates I'm having right now with my rankings. You know, Charlie Blackman's clearly third for me behind Trout Harper and Blackman, but then Mookie Betts there, who you brought up in that conversation, Adam, he went in the number, he went sixth in the first round here. Mookie Betts versus John Carlos Stanton, who. Something we are. It happened with John Carlos Stanton in the draft.

It did. We'll get to where he actually goes in a minute. But I think John Carlos Stanton is a big, deserves to be in this same discussion with Betts and Blackman. Because I'm not so sure he's not better than bets. He's certainly, he's more one note than bets. Betts can help in, you know, batting average. He's not going to strike out for this format specifically. He's not going to strike out as much as Stanton.

He gets some points on stolen bases. But he's not really going to carry you in anything. I'm kind of speaking with roto terms right now, I guess. But, you know, it's true in both formats because Betz is such a good contact hitter. And Stanton, though he's gotten a lot better, isn't. I think 2017 was kind of a worst case scenario for Betz statistically, and he was still awesome. When Stanton, it was probably his best case scenario. Yeah.

He was better than Betz, but will that be the same case next year? I don't know. It's a floor versus ceiling thing, right? Yeah, yeah. Although, bets stealing in 2016. Yeah. It's an easy call for me. I'm easily bets.

Easily bets. Chris? I'm not so sure it's quite so obvious in head-to-head. No, I think it is in points because his plate discipline made bets so much better in points last year than he was in Roto. You know, so I think, you're saying because of Roto you go with bets because of the steals? I think that's a floor argument. Like I think at his ceiling, Mookie Betts is better in Root. Yep.

But we're also – Because it's not just steals, it's also batting average. He should be a high average hitter. He wasn't last year. That's why I think it was kind of a worst case scenario for him. Yeah. Okay. So let's recap the first half of the first round.

Trout, Altuve, Goldschmidt, Harper, Blackman, Betts. Scott took No one Aeronado. The next three picks are No one Aronado, seven. Carlos Correa, 8. And then our first pitcher, Clayton Cursha, 9. So, Scott, tell me about Aronado. and also I'll ask you, both of you, forgetting, you know, let's just take hitters, okay, the entire hitter pool.

Are you concerned at all at this point about hitters' position scarcity, or are you just taking the guy who you think is going to score the most fantasy points? I think the way the game has evolved the last couple years, no. I don't think any hitter position is particularly scarce. Even shortstop goes five deep in stuff. There's one. Catcher. Catcher.

Well, yeah, but I mean, you're not taking a catcher in the first round. I think there's maybe only one catcher who can compare to the elite players that have their positions right now. Like, I don't know if Buster Posey compares to the elite guys at other positions, especially in head to head. I don't think any catcher can't, because I don't even think Sanchez is going to play that regularly. If Gary Sanchez plays 140 games, which I don't think is unrealistic, I think he's probably, given the edge he gets on the other guys at the position. So I had no thoughts of taking Carlos Correa here. It doesn't seem necessary. There are a lot of other good short steps that are going to last into round three.

So Nolan Aronado is a very easy call for me at number seven. He's actually, in my own personal rankings, he's going to be number four overall behind Trout, Altubei, and Goldschmidt. So, you know, just a steady stud at the top of the third base rankings. And that's what I'm looking for in the first round is safe and awesome. I didn't really like third base after a certain point. My personal least favorite pick on my team was Mike Mustakis, who I took in the seventh round. I actually did, I did like in the ninth round, Kyle Seeger went, and one other guy, Miguel Sineau went. But I don't know.

I don't love third base. Do you guys love third base this year right now? My sixth third baseman is Josh Donaldson, who really didn't do anything to deserve to drop. number six last year. Justin Turner's seventh for me, and he was about as good as Donaldson. I do love it up to that point. I wouldn't want to wait longer than that. Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

Yes. Up to that point is great. I think you that tier drop off at eight depending on how much you like Brett. Yeah. Okay. So Aeronado to Scott, Correa, Kershaw. Chris Sale was 10. I played it safe and I went with Anthony Rizzo at 11.

and then Chris Bryant went 12th. And that's the thing. As I compare first base, the third base, I think I should have taken Bryant over Rizzo. If I could do that again, I'd take Chris Bryant. Because if I wanted a first baseman, I could have gotten Votto or I could have gotten Freeman in the second round. Right. You could have gotten Bryant and Votto on your next two picks.

But I knew I was going to go starting pitcher. But the third basemen are all certainly gone by the middle of round two, right? Like you had other choices there picking at the end of round one. You could have fallen back on Freeman or Votto. But I do think the drop-up, it's a more gradual drop-off at first base, I guess, but there are fewer proven studs at first base than there are at third base. There aren't any first baseman taken in this draft between 18 and 39. Okay, well, let's put it this way. If you're sitting where I was sitting at 11th overall, and you're deciding between an elite first baseman and an elite third baseman, which is a very realistic decision you might.

might have to make if Chris Brian is still there. I suspect he might go earlier than 12th in most drafts or 11th. I was committed to taking a starting pitcher in round two. So if you're also committed to that, you're not getting Josh Donaldson in round three. You're not getting Freddie Freeman. You can get Justin Turner quite possible. Where did he go? Oh, he went round five.

So you can get him. You can get Jose Abraeu, but that might be a little early. So it really might come down to, do you want the elite first baseman? or do you want the elite third baseman? Because if you're going starting pitcher in round two, which I did, I took Scherzer, second pick of round two. Like, you're not, whichever position you took in round one, you ain't getting the other one in round three. Right. If you're sold on taking a pitcher that early.

And I think there's a clear foursome at the top of the starting pitcher rankings, Kershaw and Sale. Not necessarily in this order for me, but Kershaw and Sale both went toward the end of round one. Kluber went with the first pick of round two, and Max Scherzer went to you, Adam, with the second pick of round two. I think that range end of round one, beginning of round two is exactly where those four need to go. And I think it's totally justifiable the way the pitching landscape is changing to target one of those four at that point. I wouldn't want to use my first two picks on them because then you'll have trouble keeping up with all those safe hitters that are taken in rounds one and two, all the owners who took one or two of them. But getting one, you know, if we flipped your picks, Adams, and said you took Max Scher with the 11th picking round one and then took Anthony Rizzo with the second pick in round two, I don't think anybody would bat an eye at that. No, I mean, I think they're fine the way it is.

I mean, Rizzo had, I think, more walks than strikeouts are right about one to one, which is something you're looking for in this format. In Roto, I may have gone Chris Bryant because that plate discipline edge isn't quite, although Brian had great plate discipline too. One comment I got a lot from people was they were surprised you took Rizzo over Votto. I actually rank Rizzo ahead of Votto. I think it's very close my expected production from both of them. But Votto's a lot older. Votto's 30. That's exactly.

I mean, that's the only thing, the only reason I did. You could even take Freddie Freeman over Anthony Rizzo. You absolutely could. I think that is a – I definitely like Goldschmidt most of the fourth-third baseman, but otherwise Freeman Rizzo Votto. That's actually how I rank them. I rank them backwards of how they're going to go in a lot of drafts. And that's fine.

The order's not that big of a deal to me. Yeah. Okay, so just real quick on the first round, it was Trout, Altuve, Goldsmith, Harper, Blackman, Betts, Aeronado, Carrasaw, Sale, Rizzo, Bryant. One shortstop, two pitchers. We go to round two. Cluber, I took Scherzer with the second pick, and then Votto went.

Kluber, Scherzer, Vado, they were totally fine with these picks. I will say, though, that taking Scherzer there ahead of Vado, Turner, Machado, Freeman, Judge. Big departure from what I used to do. Before this year, I never would have taken Max Scherzer with the 14th overall pick. So Votto goes after Scherzer. Then it's Trey Turner, and that pick, shortstop eligible, I feel like I love that pick for a pick of round two. Maybe I should have gone with him instead of Scher. I don't, maybe he should have been in the first round,

Trey Turner as a shortstop eligible player. What do you guys think about him fourth overall? Fourth of, in round two. Yeah, my bad, round two. He's my number two shortstop behind Correa, and Correa went mid-round one, so I think the timing makes sense. I was, he was one of the ones I was hoping to get with the six pick in round two.

Obviously, he didn't last that long, so it's hard to blame the guy who took him two picks before that. He was actually the best shortstop. by a pretty considerable margin in head-to-head points per game last year, ahead of Correa. And that was even though his line drive rate dropped significantly from his rookie year, dragging his batting average down to a level that, I don't know, is totally legit. I think we're going to see Trey Turner hit for better batting averages than he did in 2017 more often than not. and yet even so, he was the best on a per game basis at that position.

The reason I still rank Karee ahead of him is because so much of Turner's value is built into stolen bases. And I feel like you get a hitter as good as Turner is, and you can't necessarily sustain him to, count on him to sustain that huge stolen base total from year to year, especially with a new regime coming in. It's not Dusty Baker anymore, and that adds a new variable. But just kind of, it makes me a little concerned,

but not enough to steer away from a middle of round, too. I might be willing to take Tri Turner on the first round in Roto, though. Just the stolen bases, you don't have to worry about stolen bases again if you get him. Okay. So, first four picks are Kluber, Scherzerer, and Turner in round two. We have Manny Machado, who's only third base eligible now. But it's not hard for him to gain shortstop eligibility at some point in the season. Just needs five appearances in CBS leagues.

Freddie Freeman to Scott with the sixth pick of the round. So Scott's first two picks were no one. Aronado and Freddie Freeman. Yeah, two first-round caliber hitters. And that's, like, I think, you know, I've talked a lot about going even starter pitcher heavier in 2018 than I did in 2017. But I feel like when you have a chance to grab a first round, like definitely a hitter in the first round. And then when you have a chance of another first-round caliber hitter, which would include Turner, it includes Machado. It would include every hitter taken to this point. You have to go ahead and do it. So I'm probably still wait. until round three to grab my first pitcher. But what if Scherzer had been on the board? What if one of those big four horsemen had been on the board? Yeah, it would have been a tough decision.

It would have been tough. I think I still would have taken Freeman. But, yeah, that's something I'm going. That's something I'm going to be experimenting with. Not so much, no. In my draft. Not so no experiments. We're going to be serving.

redraft, everyone who's listening, don't take anything that he says. Seriously, he's throwing the mock track. It might be worth it for one of those four, because you know what? Those are the only four that I trust to give me 200 plus innings and pitch like an ace. Like, as much as you can guarantee that for any pitcher, you can guarantee it for those four. And I think only those four. So that's a big deal in today's pitching landscape. I agree.

That's why it really wasn't that tough of a call for me. The Turner thing, just because he is shortstop eligible, I sort of thought maybe I should have taken him over Scherzer or maybe I should have taken Scherzer in the first round and then taken Turner over Rizzo. But it really wasn't a tough call for me to get one of those four pitchers, 11th and then 14th overall. And you know, I say those are the only four you can trust

to pitch 200 innings and pitch like an ace. Verlander? Fershaw hasn't pitched 200 innings in a couple of years. I just want to point that out before somebody else does. That's good point. I still think he's perfectly capable of it, but it's hard for him. Yeah. Yeah.

Okay. All right then. Moving on. After Scott took Freeman, a little Yankees run. Aaron Judge, seventh pick of round two, and then Chris took Gary Sanchez, eighth pick of round two, followed by Francisco Lindor. But it was pretty interesting. So, what was the – okay, we go outfield.

We go Mookie Betts. Six pick of round one, and then Aaron Judge, seventh pick of round two. We all a full round without an outfielder, mid-round one to mid-round two. And then Chris took Gary Sanchez and then Francisco Lindor. Those are some pretty interesting picks there, guys. I think things went off the rails with Aaron Judge pick, the seventh pick, right after the Freddie Freeman pick. I think that's where we went from drafting first-round caliber hitters to draft. drafting second or in some cases even third round caliber hitters.

And, you know, why I'm picking on Judge specifically is because Judge went ahead of Stanton. And Stanton still hasn't gone here. And we're about to the end of round two. I'm pretty sure I know what happened with Stanton. Okay. Because what happened for me, and I will just skip ahead, I took Stanton with the fifth pick of the third round. So, you know, I was freaking out about Stanton not going off the board. at that point, but it hadn't gone back to me.

You mentioned that John Carlos Stanton hadn't been drafted, like five picks ahead of that, like right after Judge, I think, and I was like, right after I drafted Sanchez and I was like, oh crap, I forgot about John Carlos Stanton because the draft room is still last year's projections. But, I mean, how high was Aaron Judge in last year's draft room? People remembered him. People went out of their way. Why would people not remember the home run leader and MVP?

Wait a second. Like, I can understand you, like, just one odd person. It happened to be you in this case, just forgetting about Stanton. But the whole back half of the draft forgetting about Stanton, I have a hard time believing that's what happened. Yeah, because J.D. Martinez went ahead of him. And J.D. Martinez was basically Giancarlo Stanton, except he played 35 games fewer last year. Well, also, Judge probably is going to go earlier than the middle of the second round. I mean, forget about what you think about him and where he should go.

I think he's going to go earlier than that. You don't... A lot of Yankees fans out there. He was the number three hitter in baseball last year. I could see people taking him ahead of Trey Turner. I could see people taking him ahead of Freddie Freeman. I could see people taking him ahead of Manny Machado. I think you're going to be surprised.

I think all the other... I mean, okay. I mean, I guess we'll just have to see. But I feel like usually people are... are smarter than to just automatically default to where people ranked the year before. And, you know, there's a lot of red flags with Stan that I think a lot of fantasy analysts who are going to be doing mock drafts like much like we did are going to cause them to push them down to round two, maybe even early round three. To quote Zach Lowe when he's talking about NBA trades and NBA drafts, it only takes one bleephole. Yeah, Isaiah Thomas.

Scott, you said people were going to downgrade Stanton. You meant Judge, right? Yeah, Scott meant Joe. Did I say the wrong name or did you say the wrong? You said Stanton when you meant Judge. That's okay. It's like the Spider-Man meme when the two Spider-Man's are pointing at each other.

It's kind of Aaron Judge and John Carlos Stanton, right? I think Stan is significantly better than Judge now. I think Judge is much like Stan used to be, but I mean, Stan, the way he closed up his stance and the way it dramatically improved his play discipline without really sacrificing power because he had so much to spare. I think, you know, there's always the health issue for Stanton, but I think statistically the growth was legit.

And he probably should be a first rounder, forget a third rounder. Oh, man. I don't know. It was a great pick by Chris Howard. It was a great pick in the third round. You should have experimented. See what it would have been like? I did.

I experimented to not take him in the second round. He's probably going to be in a better park this year. So that doesn't hurt. I mean, not that he needs it, but it doesn't hurt in San Francisco. There was a really interesting piece on MLB.com. Mike Petriello, I think, who's like their stat-cast guy, kind of ran the numbers to see what Stanton's home run. They're actually his batted balls would have looked like in other parks. And the two worst parks, based on his stack-cast data, would have been AT&T Park.

He would have lost four home runs. And Fenway, surprisingly, he would have lost five. Do you go the opposite way that much? There were two opposite way, and then he has the third lowest average launch angle for big home run hitters. Well, you look at his career numbers at AT&T Park and losing four from 59. Like, I don't think it's really going to matter where he winds up. But he's not going to, but we're paying for his best season and his healthiest season. No.

No, because if you're paying for 2016, you're taking him second overall. Well, you could take, then you're taking Judge third or fourth overall. You know, like all I'm saying is, I don't want to act like John Carlos Stanton is a sure is like the safest, greatest thing here. Let's, I can't forget his history. But the risk to me is still health-related more than production. I think there's a lot more legitimacy to what Stanton did than to what Judge did, which isn't to say Judge was some kind of fluke. I mean, he's a top-10 outfielder for me, but he's not a top. He also had a shoulder injury.

I mean, you know, he had the surgery last week, and he played with it. You strike out as much as Aaron Judge does, and so much has to go right for you to put up an MVP caliber season. I think the law of averages is going to catch up to him a little there. I would say I would put it this way. I think there's a very good chance we just saw the best seasons of John Carlos Dane and Aaron Judge's careers. However, I think there's a better chance Stanton ends up within 50 OPS points of what he did last season than there is of Judge ending up 100 points within what he did last year.

Okay, and I think you guys are spot on, but middle of the second round, that like 19th overall for Judge? Yeah, I think that's fine. It's fine. I would prioritize Lendor over him who went two picks later, and obviously Stanton needs to go ahead of him. There's just, there's no excuse to take judge ahead of Stan. in my mind. Okay. So, back to the draft. Gary Sanchez to Chris, middle of round two, or eighth pick of round two, then Lindor. Corey Seeger, Jose Ramirez, and J.D. Martinez. The last four picks, Lindor, Seeger, Jose Ramirez, and J.D. Martinez. Are those second round caliber players?

It's hard to argue against any of them. Seeger, you know, all the other elite shortstuffs were gone, right so you can understand like seeger strikes me as more of a third round producer but you know he's the last of the elite shortstop so i can understand him going here okay and three short stops went in that round we had turner we had ciger well we had turner we had lindor and we had cedar so we go to the third round josh donaldson is the pick george springer and those are two owners donaldson springer owners that took two hitters with their first to pick So they took three hitters with their first three picks, Al and Mike McClure. And then we have a little bit of a pitcher run.

We have Madison, Bumgarner, Stephen Strasbourg, then Chris takes John Carlos Stanton, great pick. Jacob de Grom, Scott takes Zach Granky, then Justin Verlander. So the third round starts with Donaldson and Springer, and then five of the next six picks or pitches. Pitchers. Bumgarner, Strasberg, Stanton, DeGrom, Groner, Stratten, DeGrom, Gron, Gron, Granky Verlander. Come back to that in a second. Finishing up the round, we have Chris Karris Davis.

First stunning pick of the draft. First real reach. Yeah. Although the second one might not be too far. Agreed. Noah Cinderguard, and then I sat there for 90-second clock. I took a minute and 24 seconds. I hated everything.

I had my pitcher. I didn't want to necessarily. And I went with Alex Breggman. And I look at the picks after Alex Breggman, and I don't really think I made a mistake. Maybe Nelson Cruz. Probably Nelson Cruz would have been a good pick there. I think...

Dozier is better than Alex Bregman. I think going from Stanton, or, you know, obviously Stanton was an oddball where he went this draft, so let's take the hitter before. Going from George Springer and Josh Donaldson to Chris Davis, Alex Bregman, Brian Dozier, that is the big drop-off and hitter, and that is when you need to go heavy after starting pitching. So I don't necessarily think Breggman. and was a bad choice among hitters,

I just don't know that that was the right time to go hit. Yeah, but I got Carasco three picks later. You could have had Carasco and another pitcher, and I know you already took Scherzer, so maybe that kind of... You know, you didn't want to go too pitcher-heavy, but maybe that's a reason to pass up Scherzer. I don't think so, because Scherzer's so much better.

Who's the next pitcher off the board? Scherzer is so much better than Carasco. And then Severino's after that. He's certainly safer and better and all of that. But Joe Votto is quite a bit better than Alex Brankman. Right. Exactly. And it's just maximizing the impact of the pick.

Breggman's a shortstop here. So, I mean, or a third basement. Like, I can't really, yeah, you'd probably draft him to fill shortstop. I'm hoping for a breakout here. Obviously. I mean, but you shouldn't have to hope for a breakout with your third round pick, right? You should want somebody who's already proven to be a start more or less. And I think the thing that we run into with this next group of players is there's a lot of guys who played,

like second or third round picks last season, and we just don't buy it. Like who? Anthony Rendon, Cody Ballinger, Nelson Cruz, Marcelo Zun. And I buy it with Cruz. Like, it's four straight years with 39 home runs. But with Cruz, it's not so much that we don't buy him being able to do it. It's just that he's 37. Yeah.

And he's DH only going into this year. Oh, okay. It also makes things difficult. That does. That does. Like Rendon, Marcelo Zuna, Cody, Bellinger. Those guys pretty, like Bellinger, maybe not quite so much, but those guys all for the most part gave you the production that you would be happy to get out of your second round. Marcelo Azuna outscored Chris Bryant last season.

Bellinger, I actually rank ahead of Judge. So maybe I was marking that drop off and hitters too early and there just needs to be some rearranging here. I think Rendon is perfectly fine in round three. I think Cody Bellinger is perfectly fine. I think he's, pretty much a stud. I mean, there's some strikeout concerns there, too, but less so than Judge. And I mean, he basically was a stud, Belanger was as a rookie last year. So I'd be fine with him in round three. I'd be fine with... If you prorate Ballinger to 155 games, he moves into number 12 among hitters last season of fantasy points.

All right, but if I had taken Carrasco in round three and then Bregman in round four, when I did the opposite, I feel like you guys would be okay with that. I feel you guys would be like, oh, that was good. Well, not as Coet Bellinger was still on the board. Right. I'm not sure I'd rather have Bregman than Anthony Rendell. But I got to get a shortstop, guys.

It's still shortstop. I know that it's... You know what? There's another short stuff who hasn't been taken that I rank ahead of Bregman at that position. I took a pretty good short stuff in the eighth round. Okay, who? Scott, who, and then who did you take?

Elvis Andrews. Okay, and fine. Chris, who did you take at the eighth round? round. I took Zander Bogarts in the eighth round. Like, I know we're down on Zander Bogarts, but this is a guy who's been a second round pick before. Foolishly. I mean, not at the time, but it didn't end up working out. Right, but he was still... We know Bregman got off to a bad start. He finishes the number five shortstop and points, number seven in Rona. I like Bregman. The argument you're making for him, I mean, a strong finish, you know, made an impression into postseason shortstop eligible. These are all good things. His postseason play was... Yeah, the overall numbers weren't great.

He got some attention. He's probably going to be overrated because of his postseason. Like, he had a 673 OPS in postseason. Yeah, forget the posse. But my point is, I like Bregman. I don't like him at the end of round three with Cody Bellinger still on the board. Or if Bellinger is not your type, then Rendon or even Buster Posey who started round four. No way.

Not for me. Yeah, I don't think Posey's a good pick there. But, you know, Posey's better in points than Roto for sure. So that would be a format specific pick. And then if you're saying that I should take Cody Bellinger over Alex Bregman, then, well, I guess, like I said, outfield's not really that deep. But the point I guess I was going to make is that we shouldn't care that much in shallower formats like this. Shouldn't care that much about position scarcity. Maybe you just grab the guy that you think is going to score the most points.

And then there's definitely something to do. It could be a case where, like Chris said, the draft room was showing last year's projections and maybe I just overlooked Cody Bellinger. But I took almost the entire 90 seconds. That means I wasn't very confident in the pick. All right, so that will stop there. Those are the first three rounds. Let's talk about our strategies and how we put together. Give me your teams, how you put together your teams.

Chris, I'll let you go first. All right, so the whole team or after three rounds? No, the whole team. Okay. We're not going to go round by round anymore. So let's just talk about our strategies and the constructs of our roster. You know, I kind of thought that I had involved. invested more in starting pitcher than I had, because I did take U.

Darvish in the fourth round. And then I look at the rest of my team, and it's kind of a very typical Chris Towers team. I got Aaron Nola, I got Danny Salazar, I got Trevor Bauer, so there's plenty of upside there. You're doomed. You're doomed. You're doomed.

You're doomed. I don't know if I'm doomed. We'll see. This is your McCuller's pack. I got Cole Hamels at a cheap price hoping for a bounce back season. So it's a typical high variance. Chris Towers pitching staff. If things go right, if I hit on someone on the waiver wire,

I can definitely manage with this pitching staff, but it's going to come down to my offense as it typically does. And I've got a potentially really good offense. I think the two best picks that I or anyone in the draft made, really, where Giancarlo is standing in the third round, which was a little fluky, and Miguel Cabarer in the fifth round. I know he was bad last season, but this is a guy that a year ago was a first round pick. A year ago, has that much changed in one year for my man Miguel Cabrera?

I loved it. I loved it. That he's not worth a fifth round pick. So I've got my lineup is Gary Sanchez, Miguel Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez, Miguel Sino, Zander Bogart, Charlie Black. Slow it down. Slow it down. They can't remember all these names. Gary Sanchez.

Thank you. Miguel Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez. I think I'm going the exact same speed, just a little calmer. McGill Senel, Zander Bogart, Charlie Blackman, Kyle Schwart, John Carlos Stanton, and Matt Carpenter. The way you're saying it, it's just awful to listen to. So this team, the offense for this team, has the potential to be, I think, the very best in a points format. Matt Carpenter is someone. I have a question.

Who are you going to pick up when you drop Cesar Hernandez? What is this thing where we think Cesar Hernandez isn't really good? Is he top 12? At second base? It's fine. In fantasy points? Yeah. Probably.

He walks a lot. I mean, I only rank him 27th at the position, so. I think that's ridiculous. I think that's unfair. Okay. Well, I mean, would you rather have Chris Taylor? Last season, Cesar Hernandez played 100. 128 games.

And he ranked 111th in fantasy scoring among hitters. That's pretty good. 372 divided by 128. Let's multiply. Let's give him 150 games. He moves up to right around 60th, right behind Mike Mastakis, Eugenio Suarez, Will Myers, and ahead of DJ LaMahue. A lot of late-round pick.

But why do we think Cesar Hernandez isn't good? It's fine, Chris. I think he's fine. I just think, I don't think he can possibly be better than he was last year, and what he was last year was pretty meh. So, you know, I think there are a lot of high-end options at second base. Like, I'd rather gamble on an Ozzy Albies than settle for Cesar Hernandez, John Mokada.

He was my 17th round pick. You know, hope for Scooter Jeanette to sustain or Chris Trey. Forget him, forget him. Let's get back to the fact that Chris didn't learn his lesson from last year and did not invest enough in pitcher. in this format? I just, I don't know if I agree with that. Should we just play last year's starting pitcher podcasts?

Like, it might work in other formats. I'm less militant about not investing in starting pitching than I was last year. I just, I actually like this starting pitching staff. Like, I'm not the biggest Trevor Bauer fan, but I think Trevor Bauer could be, this is a team that needs a lot of things to go right, but would it shock you? if Aaron Nola, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer were top 30 pitchers next year? All three of them? I mean, the way Trevor Bauer finished the season, I think he might be fairly underrated.

I mean, I have him 49th that's starting pitcher, so, you know, it's not like I'm saying he's about to be a stud or anything. But I think he can be Gio Gonzalez-like. I think it would be a lot better than that. Like the strikeout numbers that he was putting up in the second half of the season last year, the fact that he sustained it in his two starts in the postseason, I know they were short starts, but... He gives up a lot of base runners, though, is the thing. So, like, he can't be an ace giving up as many base runners as he does.

He, yeah, I mean, he had a 1.3 whip after the All-Star break. That's not great. That does come with a 338 babbip, and he might be someone that just gives up a lot of hits, but you'd think with the defense behind him. I just... It's weird. I've become something of a Trevor Bauer fan.

Okay. All right, Scott, let's go to your team now. Tell us about your strategies and how it all played out for you. So I talked a lot as the 2017 season was winding down about how I was going to be even more aggressive at starting pitcher because, you know, the way teams were changing the ways they used pitchers and, you know, just how few pitchers were reliable inning sources. and everything that goes along with that, strikeout totals, win totals, everything. You know, made the standouts, you know, they're even more valuable than I suspected.

So, you know, you have to drop those early, and that's what I'd intended to do going hit her first round because, you know, you don't want to be completely left out of the elite hitter conversation. maybe hit her second round if I could get a Freddie Freeman type like I did and then starting pitcher third, fourth, and fifth round. Well, I went hit her first two rounds. I went pitcher in rounds three with Zach Granky, who is certainly a great inning source, does have some spottyness in terms of production for mutative,

but more often than not is an ace. And then in round four, I took my second pitcher, Luis Severino. But then I didn't end up taking that. third pitcher in round five. I went with Daniel Murphy instead because it was just shocking he was there. And then Elvis Andrews, who I mentioned earlier, I went with him in round six, you know, a good three rounds after you took Bregman when I like Andrews Moore. So again, just the value at those two middle infield spots was just so apparent that I had to,

I had to divert from my plan to get three pitchers there in rounds three, four, and five. And I'm okay with it I'm okay with the way my pitching staff turned out You only got two innings guys though I got John Lester It was my third pitcher I got three innings guys Two Severino nearly through 200 last year

But we're talking about playoffs he did throw Oh we're talking about track record right Okay fair You only got two guys that have done it before Well Severino's done it once before He was basically a 200 inning guy this year Oh basically Yeah basically

Look, how many pitchers threw even 180 innings last year? I think it's in the teens. I think Trevor Bauer was basically a 200-inning guy. But Scott, I'm sorry, Chris. Sorry to cut you off. You're not worried about the Severino inning increase? It scares the crap out of me. He didn't go deep enough into the postseason for it to be a real concern.

But he had a huge increase innings. Yeah, but that was largely because of the time he spent pitching out of the bullpen last year. Two years ago, he pitched. Look at the previous. Yeah, compared to the previous. this year. Pitched in the wild card game. So let's not, you know, although he only pitched two thirds of an inning, but he threw a lot of pitches. He had a major innings increase.

But all right, fine. But I think it's less about the year to year than about the maximum to maximum. And in 2015, he threw 161 innings between the majors and the minors. So he's still 50 plus. I mean, how many? Yeah, and then last season. Could he get hurt next year? Yeah, Severino could get hurt next year.

next year. I don't think he's in an abnormal risk to get hurt. And the biggest thing about Severino, the reason, while I don't trust him on the same level as Scherzer and Glover and, I mean, obviously, who would. He's in that next rung is because the Yankees have already shown they're willing to ride him for seven innings at a time. And that's really the key. So few teams even allow their pitchers to do that anymore. And their Yankees did repeatedly with Severino. So now that he's proven he can do that, you know, there's the inherent. risk of drafting a hard-throwing pitcher or really any pitcher. But beyond that, I think Severino is a perfectly fine number two option.

I mean, he's a top-10 pitcher in my ranking. So, you know, you could argue he's a number one option if you want to be super technical about it. And I got him as my second. So I'm totally fine with that. Okay. So through what, six rounds? You have Granky and Severino and you have. What else you have?

And then I took Murphy in round five, Ellis Andrews in round six. So I got my whole infield full. I got two high-end pitchers, a full infield with Aeronado, Freeman, Murphy, and Andrews. And then I drafted Lester in round eight because, you know, more innings there. You know, I'm not totally sold on the idea he's going to bounce back because there was some skill issues there with his struggles, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did either. So I was fine with the value there. But obviously now I'm eight picks in, and I haven't drafted an outfielder.

You know how I said at the top of the podcast. One thing I noticed is the middle stages of the draft, wow, the infielders left are much more interesting than the outfielders left. Now, it's hard for me to complain about any of the infielders I took. They could all be top five at their respective positions. In fact, I think they're more likely than not they will be. The half-field is. But the outfield is Tommy Fam, who I think was a great value in round nine.

He's a top 12 outfielder for me, so I was fine. that. But then Eduardo Nunez is my second and Michael Conforto is my third. Now, I think we look at the name Eduardo Nunez and we think, okay, this is not a very good player, even though

for two years now he has been a must-start player in this format. As a short stop, I don't know about an outfielder. Well, no. In outfield last year, he was 24th among outfielders in head-to-head points per game. So clearly, starting

caliber. Yeah, that's what we thought about, what's his name? The guy of the Reds, the second baseman slash shortstop. I don't know. It's a lot of bad. A lot of bad. Well, no, Eduardo Nunez was an everyday player. He was. He was. And it's two years in a row for him. Scott, regardless. Who's your number three outfielder when the Mets inevitably screw up Michael Conforto's shoulder? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, Conforto suffered a serious shoulder injury last year that I don't know if he's ever going to be the same after that. The track record for pitchers who suffered that same injury isn't good. We don't really have any idea how it affects hitters.

So, you know, it was definitely gambling an upside at a position where, you know, I don't. He can be an elite hitter. Yeah. And if he's not, here's the thing. Like, would I like to have a better outfield? Yes. If I didn't have all these infielder falling in my lap, would I have made a concerted effort to get an outfielder earlier

because of what it was going to look like in the middle rounds? Yeah, I probably would recommend that. But I do feel like if you're going to slack at a position, outfield is the position to do that because there are obviously three times as many outfielders as any other position, and that just increases the number of breakout possibilities on the waiver wire, especially in a league where the player,

the number of rostered players is so low. There are going, Aaron Judge wasn't really drafted. There's going to be a Marsup was in the next year. Absolutely. So, I don't think these three outfielers are going to be my outfielder's all year. And it might be a problem if they were. But I feel very confident that those four infielders will be my starting infield all year, barring injury. And I'll be able to adjust in the outfield as the season goes on.

Yeah, I mean, you could have taken Andrew McCutcheon or Starling Marti over Elvis Andrews, but just looking at the outfielders you were taken, it's not like you missed out on. I mean, honestly, Starling Martee went with the second to last pick in the sixth round. Like, I know he had a bad year last year, but it was interrupted. He probably deserves to go earlier than that. He is going to be very much like Dee Gordon was last year. Unexplicably underrated because we think that steroid use gives players a bigger, I don't

even know if that's the right way. It gives them a boost. And then I think we either consciously or subconsciously assume that that boost doesn't carry over. And I think history shows that like, unless we just think Nelson Cruz is still still taking steroids, like, that dude didn't just lose it. D. Gordon didn't just lose it. Whatever those gains are and we can't measure them, most guys who use steroids tend to continue performing at a similar level post suspension. Don't fall into the trap with Starling Marte of assuming that he's just going to be bad now. I agree with that point and a lot of the peripherals, you know, the batted ball tendencies and everything were similar for Marte. I think he will bounce back, but I didn't love him in this format to begin with. Sure. You loved him there,

though. You loved him late in the sixth round. He never went late in the sixth round. I'd rather have Andrews. I mean, I think Andrews, Adam literally rolled his eyes at me. Well, because think about, like, could you possibly have, would rather have wanted Andrews last year? The earliest I would have taken Marte last year was round, in this format was round five. And I never really got the chance. But that's where I would have taken. So round six, if I assume he's going to bounce all the way back, yeah, that's fine. But he's probably like 15 spots apart in my outfield rankings, head-to-head versus Roto. Sort of like Carlos Santana loses a lot of value in the road. the categories format. Starling Marte is probably the player that loses the most in the points format. I think I'm very much looking forward to having fairly heated Elvis Andrews arguments as we go forward. I think this is going to be a guy that... I mean, if you're already rolling your eyes at the idea he's the sixth rounder, before he developed power, some people were taking him in the sixth round.

Developed power. I mean, that's the thing. Like, nobody bought the power. And you and I both think they're going to change the baseballs, and they've already alluded to that they're going to change the baseballs. Have they? Yeah. But, Adam, as I said in the last podcast, even if they changed the baseballs,

it's unlikely that that will take place and take effect until the second half of the season at the earliest. Who has alluded to them changing the baseball? They said they were going to look at it. They acknowledged that it was an issue. They were going to look at it. Okay. I may have missed something when I was away. Where were you, Scott?

I don't know. But last I heard, they were denying the baseball. baseballs were different. No, they sort of... And then we had a postseason that got all sorts of acclaim, and it just so happened, players were hitting a lot of home runs. So, I don't know. I don't know that baseball is going to change.

I hope it does. Yeah, me too. I think it should, but I don't know that it will. Me too. Okay, now just to wrap it up, my team. I went with three starting pitchers with my first six picks, my first 10 picks, five hitters, four starters, and Brad Peacock, who I plan to use as a really,

I have Rizzo. I have Bregman. And then I, yeah, my hitters kind of suck. It's not, it's no lie. But I have upside, you know. I have Bregman, I think it's a ton of upside. And I have Andrew Benintendi who's my first outfielder taken. I took Benintendi in the sixth round after I already had Scherzer and Carrasco.

No, I took Benetting in the fifth round, part of me. And he is a guy who I think it should be a lot better in points leagues. I do think he's probably like the 15th to 20th outfielder off the board. and I think that's perfect value for him. So I actually am happy with that. I look at a guy like Bregman and a guy like Ben Intendi, two guys that had a sophomore slump and could easily be breakout stars at their positions easily.

So I'm not fine. I will just say the one concern I have with your team. Yeah. There are only maybe three players in your starting lineup. I guess we could count Adam Eaton as well since he didn't play. But I would say Bregman, Ben, Tendi, and Odor, Rognet Odore, are the only players that I think are likely to be better this season than they were last.

Okay, so I hate my Mastakis pick. Or should be better than they were last. My Mastakis pick was my worst pick. It was in the seventh round. He had 38 home runs last year. He was the 13th best third baseman in points, 11th in Roto. He barely walks. So if I had waited two rounds, I could have gotten Kyle Seeger.

It would have been a much better pick. But I think Rizzo could be better. I mean, he could easily hit 34 home runs. Yeah, he could hit 36 instead of 34, right? Does he need to be better? I mean, I guess there's some value in kind of looking at it that way. Who on my team could be better than they were last year? But unless you're paying for what they were last year.

It's not, look, Rizzo's a perfectly fine pick of number 11. I might have taken Chris Bryan. I might have taken Joey Votto, but there's nothing wrong with that. It's more that like there aren't a lot of guys here on the upswing. Well, let me say who they are. So it's Salvador Perez. And that is, you know, I think there's a big drop off after Perez because most of the, The great catchers were gone then.

Rizzo, Odor. Took him in round eight. I took who in round eight, Perez. Yeah, that's fine. Yeah. Rizzo, O'Dore. Scott actually drafted the last half of this for me because I had to do what I have to do. Football podcast. Yeah.

Greg Olson interview, that's right. Way to take the legitimacy out of it. No, I mean, I did most of the core, but you definitely filled in the blank. So, Odore was a late thing. You didn't like the Justin Smoke pick, right? I didn't like the Justin Smoke pick because Justin Boer went two rounds later. I would have rather have just had Justin Moore. Okay.

I mean, I rank Smoke high. But I mean, that's a good example. Like, did Smoke just have his career year probably? Is taking Justin Smoke in round 12, where I gave him to you? Well, paying for his career year? No. No, but you might be paying for the previous nine years of Justin Smoke. I'm concerned.

I mean, look at your lineup. You've got Kyle Schwerber in it. Like, that could be, he could be dropped at the end of April. But here's the point. My lineup is not my strength. And I knew that. I have Scherzer, Carasco, Arieta. I have Brad Peacock at Relief Pitcher.

I have Luke Weaver, who I took in the 10th round, and I have Jacob Ferrea, and then I love the three picks Scott gave me late. Tanner Roark, Jay Hap, and Marco Estrada. One of those guys, if not all three, are going to be worth using, especially in two-star weeks, I'm going to have one of the best pitching staff. And if you take that approach and you say to yourself, look, hitting is deep. the hitters are going to emerge throughout the year more so than the pitchers. You can look at your lineup on opening day and not love it and be aggressive on the waiver. It's the exact reverse argument I used to make.

I used to say the same thing about pitching. If you feel that way about hitting now, which I do. I'm with you, Adam, 100 people on both counts. I think that's a fairly reasonable argument to make. I don't think it takes into account the inherent volatility of starting pitching, but that's fine. your starting pitching isn't that great. Oh, bull honky. Like you've got two really good start.

But who's got better start? There's no way anybody has better pitchers. Scher and Carrasco are great. Right. Arieta's not that great, especially in this format. So I look. Like, Arieta's giving you five innings per start. But he's not going to be on the Cubs necessarily, so that might change.

Yeah, I think it, I'm hoping a different manager handles them differently because other than other than John Lester, that's how, that's how Madden was treating his. entire pitching staff last year. But you're right. I don't love the area at a pick because I looked further into it and the strikeout rate going down is a bit of a concern. So maybe... He's my number 18 pitcher, though.

I mean, if your third pitcher is still top 20, you have one of the best pitching starting rotations of the league. I got Luke Weaver. I get to sing Luke Weaver like every time he thinks. That's terrific. And then, yeah, I love the depth. So I don't think you could... I don't think anybody, unless they took like four starting pitchers with their first

five or six picks. There's no way you're going to look at anybody's pitching staff and be like, wow, there are no question marks. You nailed it. And don't forget, Shohei Otani will make the starting pitching group a little bit deeper when he signs. So, yeah, I mean, that's the thing. I'm just banking on hitting being deeper than pitching again.

Of course, this kind of jives with my, they're going to change the baseball thing. I guess I'll have to figure out the balance between, you know, what that means. If they change the baseball, then you're just done. There's more to it than that. And this is, you know, it seems like teams have come to realize, you know, particularly the Astros and Dodgers and the Cubs to a certain extent, too, that certain pitchers are just better. You're better off throwing certain pitchers 140 innings to 150 innings a year.

You're going to get more value on that than asking everybody to go 180 plus. So, you know, just the fact that John, and I know Jake Gerietta fell a little shy of 170 last year, but he's been a guy who's thrown more than 200 before. He's never been an efficient pitcher. But the exception of the Sight Young year, he's never been someone who goes a lot of innings relative to his stuff. But honestly, even by today's standards, even 170 innings is pretty good. If he just does what he did last year, that's still somebody you're going to start every week.

I'm ready to end this podcast. I just need to hear Chris Towers say that I have a better, that I have an objective. objectively better pitching staff than he does. I just need to hear those words. Why would I say that? Why would I lie to you? It's objectively true, Chris. These millennials always want to be told lies that make themselves feel better about their failures.

Well, I have been on a Fleetwood Mac kick lately, so tell me sweet little lies, Chris. And that's it. We are done. 1% milk or skim plus for everyone. And we will talk to you next week. We'll keep talking about this draft. We'll give you some of the good late round picks. and I'm sure we'll figure out something else to talk about.

See you later.