Fantasy Baseball Today - 12 Undervalued Targets! Cody Bellinger Traded to the Yankees & More! (12/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Before we get to ADP gifts, Cody Bellinger was traded to the Yankees (2:30)! Matt Shaw could have an opportunity. ... Jeffrey Springs was traded to the Athletics (13:34)! ... The Orioles signed Japanese starter Tomoyuki Sugano (18:28)! ... Other news (22:29): Bryan De La Cruz signed with the Braves. ... Let's get into undervalued players in the Top 100, starting with Marcus Semien (29:40). ... Are people sleeping on Sandy Alcantara (43:42)? ... Don't forget Carlos Correa and Evan Carter (53:16)! ... Any other late-round undervalued targets (1:02:40)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. The holiday season is a time for giving. So today we give you early ADP presents.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, December 19th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we have ADP presence. What does that mean? 12 undervalued players based on NFBC ADP in the month of December. We also have lots of news to catch you up on. We had some pre-recorded content that came out, but since then Cody Bellinger got traded to the Yankees.

Jeffrey Springs traded to the A's and much more. Let's start with the news, get that out of the way, and then we can focus on our gift giving here for the holidays. But beginning with Cody Bellinger, who, no secret, we figured this was going to happen eventually, traded over to the Yankees for Cody Potete, essentially a salary dump by the Chicago Cubs. Bellinger is 29 years old, coming off an okay season,

not nearly as good as his first with the Chicago Cubs. He hit 266, 18 home runs, nine steals, a 751 OPS. Chris, you cannot ask for a better, I guess, situation, park upgrade for Cody Bellinger with that short porch and right field. And I would expect him to bat somewhere in the middle of the Yankees lineup. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be too surprised if he was right there at the top. You know, he's like not a great OVP guy, but they might be okay with him setting the table.

But either way, whether it's, you know, second or fourth or whatever it ends up being, I think it's about as good of a landing spot as you could hope for for a left-handed hitter who, when he's going well, pulls the ball well and doesn't have great raw power at this point in his career. And I think you have to be happy that this is pretty much the best case scenario for Cody Ballinger's fantasy value. So I moved him up a little bit. He is 101 in my Roto rankings. I moved him ahead of Brian Reynolds at the outfield position. and moved him ahead of Tristan Kossis and Christian Walker at first base. We'll see where Walker ends up.

That could obviously change things. But yeah, I think you have to be pretty happy about it if you're a Cody Ballinger believer. This is feeling like everything in its proper place kind of offseason because we just had Isok Perretta's with his extreme tendency to pull the ball down the left field line, go. to Houston with the Crawford boxes and just the ideal scenario to help his power play up. And it's kind of the same thing here with Cody Bellinger. It's not as extreme of a situation

because there are a few players whose spray angles are as extreme as Esauk Perrillas. But Bellinger, left-handed hitter, good at elevating, good at pulling the ball in the air. it wouldn't be at all a surprise if he leaned into those tendencies even more to take advantage of that short porch in right field. And this is a guy whose natural power has been on the decline. He managed to succeed in spite of it in 2023 with Chicago had a impactful year in fantasy. But there was a lot of skepticism surrounding it because those exit velocity readings didn't look good.

Well, they were basically exactly the same last year. and yet the production fell off. I think this move to Yankee Stadium represents Bellinger's best chance of being a high-impact fantasy hitter again. Doesn't mean he will be or he probably will be, but it's his best chance. This is one of the best scenarios he could have wound up in.

Hopefully he runs a little more too because obviously going from, was it, 20 steals and 130 games in 20-23, he just nine last year. You know, he dealt with some injuries, a fractured rib and a fractured finger, I believe, last year. So, you know, maybe those slowed him down a little bit. But yeah, I think if Bellinger, like, I feel pretty comfortable projecting like 25-ish homers for him playing half his games at Yankee Stadium, the profile looks a lot better if it's

25 homers, 20 steals rather than 10 steals. But, you know, I think the counting stats get a boost. It's everything you could hope for. he in X home runs, Yankee Stadium would have been the third best park for Cody Ballinger last year behind Philadelphia and Cincinnati. So I think that's a very good thing. Yep. And Cody Bellinger had 18 total home runs last season. He would have had 24 if he played all of his games in Yankee Stadium. Fifteen of his 18 home runs also went to the pole side. So again, it just, it feels like a match made in heaven for Cody Bellinger's swing. Hope that he does run a little bit more.

the Yankees not really that aggressive. They were 24th in steals as a team. The Chicago Cubs were all the way up at 8th. But we have seen when they have someone who's capable of running, they let that guy go. Like, Jazz Chisholm just ran as much as he wanted. The Cubs, it was weird because, like, they didn't run at all in the first half of the season, if you remember.

Yeah. Like, just as a team, nobody ran. It was the weirdest thing. Nico Horner had, like, I don't know, like seven steals in the first half or something. And then they all started running in the second half. By that point, I think Cody Bellinger was pretty beat up, having come back from a couple of different injuries.

So maybe he would have stolen more if he had been in better health. That's the hope anyway. The NFBC ADP in December, 45 drafts, so not an insignificant sample size, is 124 for Cody Bellinger. He's the 12th first basement off the board, the 28th outfielder. Chris, you already answered this. You're moving him up a little bit. Scott, how about for you? Do you plan to move Bellinger ahead of Christian Walker, Tristan Kossis, Spencer Steer,

Vinnie Pass Guantino or even in the outfield, Riley Green, Christian Yellich, names like that. I see the argument for it. And certainly if you're projecting more steals, I think it's an easier case to make. I'm going to be a little more restrained, I think. For me, it's more before Cody Bellinger as my 12th first baseman. I would have not felt excited to take him there. And now I would.

Sure. Fair enough. I do have him behind Christian Yowlton, Riley Green, but I think I just have them ahead of ADP. Yep. On the cup side of things, this obviously clears up another roster spot. They have Ian Hap, Pete Cromstrung, and Kyle Tucker projected in the outfield with Seah Suzuki at D.H. And Michael Bush at first base.

Third base is wide open. And Chris, we talked about this when we did the emergency podcast for the Kyle Tucker trade. Matt Shaw has an opportunity here, where if he plays well in the game, spring. He could be, you know, their opening day, third basement. It sounds like that's what they want to happen as well. There have been four NFBC drafts since last Saturday. So after the Tucker trade is done, Matt Shaw's ADP is 245 in those four drafts. Scott, what do you think about that price tag for Matt Shaw? It sounds reasonable. This is somebody who I'm expecting to wind up on the opening day roster now. I know he officially has to earn the job, but it sounds like he's going to

get that opportunity. And his minor league career, other than a slow start this past year, it's been pretty good, pretty much doing everything you would want Matt Schall to do. So I think he's going to be a top five prospect for me overall heading into the season. And to get him just inside the top 250 with a job lined up theoretically, I think that would be an exciting development. Now, I'm going to guess he rises more from here and maybe to an uncomfortable range. But right now, I'd be happy with where Matt Shaw is going.

I will say, I think there's still a trade left because I think Say Suzuki's agent basically came out and said he wasn't happy when he got moved to DH at the end of last season. He doesn't want to be a DH. And right now, Say Suzuki's a DH. And I don't really know what permutation you can get to where he's playing in the field regularly, right? Like, Kyle Tucker is going to be the right fielder. Ian Hap has won, I think, three gold gloves in a row at left field, something like that. He's won three gold gloves overall in left field. Peacro Armstrong might be the best defensive center fielder in baseball when it's all said and done.

And Owen Casey, Alexander Canario, and Alcantara. Kevin Alcanser. Calvin Alcantra. There's a lot of outfield depth. So whether it's trading one of those guys in AAA, Casey or Alcantra or another, you know, a say Suzuki trade, which would be a more significant one.

He was their best hitter last year. I do think the Cubs probably won't. Repeat that last sentence because you kind of cut out. Cubs probably aren't done yet. Yeah. So hopefully they don't trade for a third baseman, but I guess that would be, that is a possibility for the Chicago Cubs

and a fair point there. They could move Horner. Yeah. Which is something that's been rumored a little bit, in which case Shaw could play second base as well. So there are multiple avenues still. Before we hit our first break, just a reminder to subscribe to the FBT newsletter.

If you haven't already, if you're watching on YouTube, scan that QR code. That will take you right to the website where you click on the FBT logo, you punch in your email address, and it's easy as that. And a programming update for the next two weeks

The podcast will publish on Monday and Thursday Instead of Tuesday and Thursday We don't want podcasts coming out on Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve So you'll get an extra day to listen to FBT content Let's take a break when we return Jeffrey Springs to the A's We'll talk about that right after this Welcome back in the A's acquired Jeffrey Springs And Jacob Lopez from the Tampa Bay raise

In exchange for Joe Boyle, Jacob Waters and Will Simpson as well as a compensatory draft pick. Poor Jeffrey Springs, man. He's traded from one minor league park to another. It does not get much worse than that. But Springs returned from Tommy John surgery last season. He made seven starts, 327 ERA, 136 whip, 10K per 9, swinging strike rate, still really, really good.

But the fastball velocity was down almost two miles per hour, and he's someone who already doesn't throw very hard. and his season ended with left elbow fatigue. So last time we saw Jeffrey Springs for a full season, he was really, really good. I don't know if he'll get back to that level. There are some question marks here. What do you think about him going over to the athletics?

I think what the first thought I have with this move is, I wonder if the Ray's view, Jeffrey Springs, is damaged goods because it seems weird, a pitcher, what seemed like a surefire member of your starting rotation going from a contender and expect a contender to a non-contender

and it's not like they did the race the typical raise thing where they got some exciting prospects in return it's a pretty light package it's like a 36th overall pick I think the compensatory pick something like that so yeah it's not nothing it's not nothing but it's

I was underwhelmed by the return and that the A's were the team acquiring him also raised alarm for me. And you lay out the injury history there coming back from Tommy John surgery last year. The numbers were fine, but the velocity was down two miles per hour. And then he had the elbow fatigued to end the season. So I don't know. I wasn't especially high on Springs anyway, just because it's a loaded pitcher cross. this year and I can find more reasons to be concerned about him than some of the others who have

interesting potential. But I think even less so now before I even get into the change in supporting cast, which is presumably a downgrade. Yeah, Springs's NFBC ADP in December is 244.5. Would you guys rather have Jeffrey Springs or Renel Blanco? I'd rather have Springs. I am going to consult my rankings Yeah, I mean, let me make sure I said that very confidently I have Blanco

About a round ahead of Springs So Blanco Okay, what about Jeffrey Springs versus Gavin Williams? Uh, I think it's Springs, yeah I think so too All right, kind of bearish on Gavin Williams at the moment

The one thing I will say about this trade is one it's $10.5 million, which is a perfectly reasonable amount of money for a team to spend on a Jeffrey Springs type starter. But obviously the raise aren't going to spend $10.5 million on anything but a sure thing. And they had six starters. Like in like seven. If you count Drew Rasmussen, seven. Oh, Rasmussen. Okay.

That's the other. Yeah. Because McLeanahan, Todge Bradley, Ryan Pepio, Zach Lattel, and Shane Baz, you know, it wasn't clear. Jeffrey Springs was going to be in the rotation to start the season anyway. So I get it from that perspective. I guess it's a, I don't know, it doesn't really change how I view springs for 2025. I think there's some upside there, but the chances of him hitting it seem pretty slim. Did just want to mention one of the players in the return, Joe Boyle, who is a mammoth, 6'7,

he throws really hard, he's got nasty stuff, generates whiffs, has absolutely, no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hands. So we've seen Tampa Bay, you know, take on reclamation projects like this and get the control on track. It's not necessarily going to happen with Boyle, but if it does, maybe he becomes a back-end starter or a bulk reliever or, you know, a high leverage arm. So he's, he's interesting in that he could maybe one day have fantasy value. So the stuff is really good. Yeah. And if he can just be, you know, on the scouting scale, a 40 command guy, which is well below average.

He could be a very good closer. Yeah. It's just he might be a 25 on the 20 to 80 scale. He's got about as bad a command as you can have and still make the major. Let's move on to the Orioles who signed Japanese pitcher Tomo Yuki Sagano,

and they did that to a one year, $13 million deal. Sagano is 35 years old coming off. an incredible season in Japan, 167 ERA, 0.95 whip, but only 111 strikeouts over 156 and two-thirds innings. It looks like a control pitcher mix and match. He's got six different pitches that he throws. Chris, I know you sent out a newsletter either earlier in this week or last week,

highlighting players coming over from Japan and Korea. What did you find on Tomo Yuki Sugano? He is the very standard crafty veteran. But it's worth noting he's a three-time Central League MVP in Japan and including 2024 after a couple of down years where he had some elbow issues. He's been a eight-time All-Star, won the pitching Triple Crown back in 2018. I believe he's won their version of the Cy Young a couple of times as well. So about as decorated as they come.

And, you know, the fastball is, I think he averaged 91.9 with it last year, according to what I saw, it's not going to get. Yeah, not going to get whiffs with it. He had a 10% whiff rate last season. His strikeout rate overall was about average for Nippon. Cutter and slider both seem fine. the splitter, as you often see with Japanese pitchers, is the best swing and miss pitch there.

And whether it's throwing the splitter a little more, throwing the slider to get more whiffs, I'm not going to write off the potential that he could be at least an average strikeout pitcher at Major League Baseball. But the thing is, if Joe Boyle's a 25 on the 20 to 80 scale for command, Sugano might be the top end of the spectrum.

He has absolutely elite command and control. And I think you can see like a Seth Lugo Chris Bassett, not 2024 Chris Bassett, obviously, but the good version of Chris Bassett. You know, he throws six pitches. He's also got a sinker. So like I can see him kitchen sinking his way to a very good season. But I think the upside's probably not that high.

I'll say he should be drafted in a 50. 15 team leagues certainly and even 12 team roto leagues. I think he can be a late round pick, but it's hard to see, you know, a ton of upside there. He is also, I think, 35 on opening day. Yeah. Yeah, in the off-season tracker for Tomiuki, Sugano, I said we're probably hoping for like a Michael Waka type outcome here

where not going to generate much enthusiasm or a big strikeout rate, but in the end could be a very usable fantasy picture. The Orioles updated rotation, by the way, Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kramer, Tomoyuki Sagano, and Kade Povich. They still need somebody at the top. I don't think they're going to sign one of these big name free agents, but they've been linked to Luis Castillo, Dylan Cese,

so maybe there still is a trade to come for the Orioles. I think baseball prospectus, I think I've seen on a couple of different pieces that they've done, um, something like a, is Dean Kramer still slated to start in a, playoff series for them. And that's their marker of whether the Orioles have a good enough rotation or not.

And currently, yeah, it looks like Dean Kramer's probably their number three started. That's not good enough for a contender. Like, no. You can't go into the season with that rotation and expect to truly contend for a World Series. This is a team that after the Corbyn Burns trade, they still needed another pitcher. Now they lost Corbyn Burns. So I think they clearly need to make a big splash.

whether they will or not, gosh, I sure hope so. Scotty, your Atlanta Braves signed Brian Dela Cruz to a one-year non-guaranteed contract. He has 19 plus home runs two years in a row, but took a nosedive after getting traded to the pirates last season. Seems like a Ronald Acuna fill-in replacement until he's ready to go, and then after that, you know, maybe he's a platoon bat with Kelnick. If he hits well early on, maybe he just takes Kelnick's job. Is there any deep league interest in Brian Dela Cruz? I mean, it depends how deep the league is. These should probably be drafted in a lonely league,

but I am seeing this as he's competing, so not even guaranteed. It's a non-guaranteed contract, competing to probably be the lesser half of a platoon with Kalnick, kind of a bench piece. Could he play his way into more time? I suppose it's possible. We've noted in past years that he has some interesting underlying data,

but really poor on base skills, which give him longer odds. The fact, he's right-handed there, give him longer odds. He wasn't good enough to play for the Pirates every day down the stretch last year, so that's not a good sign. The Cubs signed Carson Kelly to a two-year, $11.5 million deal, and in 91 games last season, hit 238 with nine home runs and a 687 OPS. Don't think he really has any fantasy value, but he's going to do just enough to take away playing time from Miguel Amai.

I think they'll split evenly, so my guess is neither of them have value in two catcher leagues. Amaya becomes a part-time catcher. There you go. Someone out there will get that reference. Someone out there with kids will get that reference. You know I don't. Garrett Crochet is not planning to change his pitch mix following his trade to Boston. Shane O. Mack, Shane McClanhan.

Here comes the money. Here we go. Money talk. Here comes the money. It is expected to throw 150-ish innings next season, and he's returning from his second Tommy John surgery. The ADP in December is 115 just after Tyler Glassnow and Sunny Gray, just ahead of Zach Allen and Carlos Rodan.

Does that sound like the right range for McClanahan knowing you're going to get 150-ish innings? Well, you don't know that. That's the best case there. The expectation. Yeah. Has he has done that once before, right? 150 innings? Sounds right. In the majors, yes.

I don't know if he got there in the minors before. This seems too optimistic for me. Just the fact, before you factor in the inning ceiling of 150 innings, which we presumed he would have an inning ceiling of about that already. Just the fact he's coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. I have Shane McClanahan closer to like 40th in my sister. starting pitcher rankings. Now, if he's lighting it up in spring training, I'll adjust.

That goes without saying. But no, I would, to see him in the same vicinity as Tyler Glassnow seems kind of wild to me. Yeah, because Glassnow probably has a similar ceiling in terms of innings. He's a much safer bet to be good. On a per inning basis, yeah. Yeah, like it's, I think it's an open question that Shane McClanahan will be good. next season. I sure hope so, but it's not at all a sure thing. Clay Holmes said he wants to throw

160 plus innings in 2025. Holmes is transitioning from reliever to starter and hasn't thrown more than 70 innings in a season since 2018. So I will personally take the under on 160 there. No one Aronado used his I mean Michael King, I think had clear durability concerns and managed to exceed that. I'm pretty excited about this move for Clay Holmes. I think it's a better role for him than closing.

And I've been, we're about to get into these gifts, gift, draft day gifts, presents. Like, I think he fits the bill because his ADP right now is 337. And I think I have about 100 spots higher than that.

I think as a sinker baller, who's always had a strong ERA in the bullpen. I think it'll work out pretty well. If you are worried about gifts not being clear enough, using presence also doesn't really improve that. You know, both are audibly a little confusing. Whenever I hear the phrase grace you with your presence, I imagine people bringing in a big pile of presence.

There's a Kanye lyric about that. believe. Oh, is there? Yeah. Yeah. Well, we are giving you undervalued players that you should draft. And their gifts and their presence. Whatever. No one Aronado uses no trade clause to block a trade to the Houston Astros. Reports cited Aronado's preference

to not make a decision this early in the off season. So, I guess, maybe hoping for a better situation to arise, although... What's the better situation? Like, I don't know. What does Noon Aronado want? Like, I'm genuinely asking this question because, like, if he wanted

to win, why sign the extension with the Rockies, right? And if you wanted to like just get your numbers, you know, you kind of don't force your way out of Colorado. You're going to have better numbers there. I don't like if you want to burnish your reputation and increase your Hall of Fame chances and maybe get one more contract after this one, Houston is by far the best possible landing spot for him. So I that would have been another everything and it's proper place kind of moved. I've been calling for this one for weeks. I hope it happens still because it's just maybe Boston or Cincinnati, which I don't think either of those teams would want to do it.

Clearly the best possible landing spot. He's been linked to Boston and that would be fine too. And I think I think I saw that he wanted to play on the East Coast. Don't quote me on that. He had the Angels and Dodgers on his list of teams he'd be willing to get traded to, which is, I mean, Dodgers, fine. Angels? Angels? Yeah. It's kind of, kind of weird. Chris, you said, what does no one Aronado want? And my mind instantly went to, it's not that easy. What do you want? It's not that easy. I don't know, man.

Like, I think he's got three years left on his contract. Houston would be your best chance to like get to, he's at like, 140 career home runs. Like, he's got a real chance to get to like 400 and like lock up a haul. If I think he's probably a haul. of Famer no matter what, but like, he's not going to do a lot more if he doesn't play a lot better than he did last season the next few years. So it's, um, I don't, I don't understand the thought process here, man. And last news item, we have Pirates GM. Ben Sherrington said Joey Bar will enter 2025 as the favorite to start a catcher. They also have Andy Rodriguez and Henry Davis. So kind of a crowded situation, but perhaps Joey Bart has the leg up there. ADP gifts,

ADP presence, undervalued players. Based on NFBC ADP in December, 45 drafts have been completed. So again, it's a pretty good sample size. Many things will change once other ADP comes out from CBS and Yahoo and ESPN. But this is the data that we have right now. So we will each choose an underrated target

in the top 100, 101 to 200, 201 to 300, and then 300 plus. So 12 total undervalued players. Scott, feel free to grab one of those gifts behind you and just hand them out on the podcast while you deliver your favorites here. Here's a nice one with a very... Love to heal your bow.

That's a unique bow. That is... Yeah. It's a boomer bow. I don't know. Well, speaking of that gift, who is your undervalued player inside the top 100?

So far. Well, I could have picked any number of second basements. in this range. I have Jose Al Tuvei is going 23 spots

lower than I have him. Ozzie Albiz is going 19 spots lower than I have him. Jordan Westberg

is going 39 spots lower than I have him. Luis Garcia outside the top 100, but still 20 spots lower

than I have him. And then you got Marcus Simeon who's going 87th on average, 44 spots

after I have him. So part of it is just this particular group of drafters on NFBC are devaluing second baseman relative to me. And there are those kind of like institutional kind of overarching trends that influence probably all of my picks for this exercise. Because I noticed as I was going through possibilities, hitters in general.

Like there were very few pitchers that I picked out as, oh, this seems like a good value. It's easier to find, it's easier to find pitcher values I don't like than pitcher values I love. Yeah, absolutely. But the weird thing is, sorry, the weird thing is one of the reasons why players tend to get undervalued at this point in the year in NFC drafts is injury risk. Marcus Simeon, I mean, every player has injury risk. He's played about as much as anyone in baseball over the past decade. I don't know when the last time he missed more than 10 games in a season was. Yeah. So that's the weird one where like you would think that playing time and lack of injury risk would boost him in this. He hasn't missed more than 10 games since 2017.

Yeah. For me, it's okay, Ozzie Albiz and Marcus Simeon both seem like great values, but Albies is going 27 picks ahead of Simeon. And that doesn't make sense because it seems like it's a close call. Yeah, Simeon's production was disappointing by his standards last year, but. so was Ozzy Albis for the time he was healthy. And you could say, okay, but Simeon's 34. So probably his disappointment was decline related. But if you dig into the data, the data looks very much like 2022 for him. So it's not like there was this new, this clear decline in skill for Marcus Simeon that contributed to the decline in stats. And I think a lot of it just comes down to he,

ran a lot less. He stole eight bases when we didn't notice the subpar exit velocity is so much in 22 because he stole 25 bases that year. And I think he could get that back. I think at a position as weak as second base, that I'm willing to take on what seems like a fairly small risk of Simeon just continuing to decline as opposed to bouncing back to some degree. All right, Chris, over to you, an undervalued player inside the top 100.

It is reasonable. So Scott mentioned a few of those, you know, like institutional things that lead to players being undervalued. And I think right now there are kind of two things that I'm looking at that the fantasy industry as a whole is potentially undervalue. And I think it is players who don't steal bases or don't steal many bases, I think are being undervalued systematically. right now and utility only players.

And it's worth keeping mind the difference between a 12 team and a 15 team league. A lot of these drafts are 15 team leagues. But like there are going to be at least four absolute no doubt about it must start UT only players to open the season. And I think all of them except for Shohei Otani are really good values right now. Marcelo Zuna, Brent Rooker and Kyle Schwabry. I think you make a case for all of them being undervalued. But the thing is, Rooker was the best of them not counting Shohei Otani.

And he's by far the most likely to not be util only pretty quickly. I'm not going to say it's guaranteed that he becomes outfield eligible early on, but he played most of last year with a forearm injury. He had surgery right after the season. And they've already said they expect him to play more outfield. He had the underlying numbers to back up much of what he did last year. I don't know if he should necessarily be a top 10. end player again, but the underlying number suggests it was not a fluke.

And he's getting what should be a pretty nice ballpark upgrade in the move from Oakland to San Francisco, so, or sorry, Sacramento. So I, I think Brent Rooker, you could make a case for him as a top 40 player in 2025. I've got him 58th right now. And his ADP is what, 75? 74.4. Yep. Yeah, so I think that's an easy one.

If you want to, you know, it's a little frustrating going through your draft, taking utility only player early and then getting to like the 12th round and by far the best player is a shortstop. And you've already filled up your shortstop in middle infield positions. I get it. That can be a frustrating situation. Most of the drafts happening right now are drafting benches. So you can still draft those guys. Like it's when we do our little mock draft drafts, most of the time we don't draft benches, especially at this point in the year.

And especially in our roto league. So like there's no way around that if you take a utility only player in those drafts. And it's also true of the gladiator drafts on NFC. I get that. But yeah. In most of your drafts, if you have a bench spot, if the best player available doesn't have a spot in your lineup, just take them. Because you're not going to start the same team the whole year. Well, I think people overthink that.

It's easier to say for Rooker especially because he's going to pick up outfield eligibility in short order, it sounds like. So it's, you know, Marcel Ozuna, you don't expect to ever take him out of that utility spot. Like maybe he could get first base if Matt Olson gets hurt. That's basically the only way I could see it for Ozuna. But I'll tell you, to further your point, I last year in the very early mock drafts we were doing, I was getting Ozuna in every league. and then once we started drafting leagues that counted, you backed off. I started passing up him because I saw J.D. Martinez and Iloi Jimenez

and Byron Buxston going later. And it's like, well, I don't want to miss out on my opportunity to draft one of them for my utility spot. And of course, the only one who was really worth starting all season and significantly outperformed his draft position was Marcelo Zuna. Yeah. I do want to address the, the unexpectedness of it all.

This is a guy who is by baseball standards, middle-aged, and he just had a huge breakout out of, it was pretty good, I guess, in 2023. Yeah, he was a must-star player in 2023. And you say the underlying numbers totally back it up. I mean, he batted 293. Mostly. Mostly.

He batted 293, expected batting average was 266. He still struck out 29% of the time, which I think presents a lot of batting average risk. And I've been down this path before where you get the 30 year old with the surprising breakout. Oh, the underlying numbers back it up. And then the next year, he just turns back into a pumpkin. He could be Luke. But like if all he does is turns back into the 2023 version of him, that's still a pretty useful player.

Right. He still had 30 plus homers. It should be a better lineup around him overall. So I get it. I think there is some downside risk. But I have him 58th also. That's what you said. So we're at exactly the same spot.

I love when that happens when we just haven't talked about it at all and we end up with the same exact spot. Yeah, I'm with you guys. And in fact, the player for me, the undervalued player in the top 100, is Marcel Ozuna with an ADP of 69.8. So going just ahead of Brent Rooker, he has finished as a top 30 overall player in Roto

and a top 30 hitter in head to head points two years in a row. In those two seasons, 39 plus home runs, 100 plus RBI, 900 plus OPS, quality of contact was elite both years, expected stats back everything up. And I understand he's had lots of inconsistency in his career. Maybe everything just falls apart at 34 years old. We've seen that happen before in Marcel Ozuna's career. But for a guy to have been this good two years in a row going outside of the top 60 picks right now,

entering a contract year, I'm going to do it. I'm just, I'm not really going to think about it. So I think in a lot of drafts, if I see OZuna outside the top 50 or top 60, I'm just going to pull the trigger. I know it kind of presents some weird roster construction, especially if you play

in a deeper league. I totally understand that. But if you were someone that just believes in banking stats, let me bank the stats, OZuna feels like that guy. Yeah. I agree. Me too. on my long list that they're down to one name.

We're all in agreement there. He didn't make my list for the newsletter on Wednesday, but only because I made the case with Brent Rooker. But I think Ozuna and Schwabur are also both being undervalued. I think, you know, John Carlos Stan and Cal Monsardo are extremely cheap. And I think I mostly view them as at least when Stan's healthy starting caliber utility guys as well.

So I think you could look at a case where half of a 12 team league is starting UTL only guy on opening day. I was this close to choosing Manzardo as my player outside the top 300, but I figured I can't give out two utility players. That just felt a little bit too weird.

Honorable mentions in the top 100, just give me names if you guys have anyone. Trey Turner at 25. That wasn't just a name. Yordon Alvarez, if we're talking about players that early, Adley Rutchman, just because he's the number three catcher. I think there's no world in which I would take Yanor Diaz ahead of him.

And talking about those, sorry, I know you said just names, but I want to mention one more thing. Those institutional factors that drive prices down, Anthony Santander is 97 coming off of a 40 homer season. It's just because he hasn't signed. And as soon as he signs, unless he signs, I don't know, with the Marlins or something, like he's going to jump 15 spots. it doesn't really ever make sense when these guys are this undervalued because they're unsigned. Like Anthony Sundanderer's going to have a job next year, guys.

He's not going to be unemployed. Yeah. For me, Austin Riley at 31.8 and Logan Webb at 97.9. Yeah. I don't think I want Logan Webb, but should he really go 12 to 15 picks after Aranola and Luis Castillo? Also after Tanner Bybee?

He's number 76 for me overall. So, yeah. All right, let's take a quick break. and when we return back into undervalued players right after this. Happy holidays to all and our gift to you. Undervalued players based on early ADP

and we are getting into the 100 to 200 range and Chris we will start with you. Sandy Alcantara who is currently going one 60 Homer. Sure. Homer. I famously overrate the Marlins. I think we can all

agree. But no this is a guy who was the last time we saw him healthy was being drafted as a top 40 pitcher or top 40 overall player he wasn't worth that the last time we saw him healthy in 2023 but i think the thing to keep in mind about the way that season went was he wasn't great early on he was basically exactly what everyone hoped he would be from the start of july on it was a low 3 z a a very good whip We know wins are probably going to be tough to come by for the Marlins, but this is one guy coming back from Tommy John's surgery.

I don't really expect to be limited or babyed at all. I think if he's healthy, they're going to let it rip. And Sandy Alcantra should go back to being 180 inning guy with decent but not great strikeouts. Like the overall package, I get it. He's not an ace, probably. We've seen Ace upside from Sandy Alcantra, though. like nobody can deny that and i think he's a pretty good bet for like a mid three zara and production that honestly won't be that dissimilar from logan web who you mentioned might be undervalued

but it's still going what 50 spots ahead of him so i think alcantra is weirdly being overlooked right now some names going just ahead of him sandy versus ryan peppio who would you rather have I think it depends on what your approach is with your pitching staff and what you need because I think Pepio probably has more per inning upside as a strikeout pitcher, but I would take Alcantra. What about Sandy versus Robbie Ray? Again, Sandy. Yeah, I've Sandy ahead of those guys too, though my overall ranking isn't so different from ADP.

Obviously, he's not going to give you the big workload coming back from Tommy Johnson. You're not going to have a 220 inning workload. He was a complete game machine, and that drove a lot of his value. But it's not like you have to draft him like he's the top 10 pitcher anyway, either, clearly. All right, Scott, over to you, an undervalued player in the 100 to 200 range. So we've talked about this one before, I think. Yes, absolutely. Bo Bichette was the obvious standout here.

He's going 144th on average. 72 spots lower than I have him. I am exactly twice as high as the consensus on Bo Bichette. And I think it's as simple as people are taking his numbers last year of face value. It was a really bad year. But a guy who, through the first five years of his minor league career, hit 299, I don't think the 225 batting average when he was dealing with,

I believe it was a hamstring. injury that just wouldn't let up. Calf. Calf injury? Okay. Yeah, it was just a lost season for Boba Chet. He's still in his prime. He has that one blemish on the track record now, at least in the batting average department.

I've, in previous years, I was kind of a downer on Bichet because I thought people were expecting too much from him power-wise and certainly speed-wise. He hasn't been a plus base dealer in several years now. But that, like, I expect him to hit at least $2.90 with 20-plus homers. And so to me, that's pretty easily a top 100 player. And yet he's going closer to 150 behind Anthony Volpe. Behind Adoli. Might just be a stolen base guy.

Right, right. Bichette might hit twice as many home runs as him and have 60 points of batting average on Volpe. He's going behind Adoli-Skarsia, who also is coming off a down season. It might be done. I think there's a lot more reason to believe Adolice Garcia has done than Bichette, considering again, Bichette is 20. The thing with Bichet, how many players are, like you said, 299 hitters with, I mean, you look at the per 162 game averages because he only played three full seasons before in his first five. One of them was COVID.

One was when he got called up. But from age 21 to 25, 299 averaged 102 runs, 27. homers, 96 RBI, 16 steals per 162 games. How many guys do that from age 21 to 25 and are just done being good players at 20? The hit tool being that good specifically. Because you'll find guys who had like a big power numbers to start their career and then fell off quickly. But not ones who could just were this good at hitting all around. Yeah.

It's clearly undervalued. I have him 70 spots ahead of his. ADP as well. I think the downside here is that his right leg is just shot. So last year he dealt with a recurring right calf strain. He's had lots of issues with the knee, his right knee. He's been on the IL twice because of that. He went on the aisle once because of a right quad train. So there's clearly been something going on with his right leg. He's had an entire offseason to get right. He's entering a contract year at 27 years old. I am closer to you guys in believing that he isn't undervalued player and the biggest note of all, he cut his hair.

Remember when Vlad Jr. cut his hair last season? What happened? It's a whole team philosophy. Though, man, that long hair looks so good on Bo Bichette. It makes me sad. He is no longer Flo Bichette. Remember when Jacob de Grom had the long hair and it was just this nasty mess of hair on his head? like Bo Bichette looked swath You know, like, yeah Yeah, um

Yeah I The Blue Jays know Bo Bichette better than any other team One would assume And they came out very early in the off season And killed my dreams By saying there's no way we're trading Bo Bichette

So if if they don't want to cash in now I, that seems to me like they're not that concerned about the leg. All right. Undervalued for me in the 100 to 200 range is Tommy Edmund with an ADP of

190 and very simply there's just no reason in my mind that he should be going 30 picks after Lane Thomas and Colton Couser and I get that these players are at different positions but I think we're expecting a similar skill set. Luis Renhifo,

Bryce and Stott Andres Jimenez are all going 20 to 25 picks ahead of Tommy Edmund and I expect a very similar skill set to all of those names that I just mentioned. Couser is little bit different. He's more of just like a power guy. Maybe he chips in a handful of steals, but just overall value. I don't think he should be going that much higher than Tommy Edmund. In 37 games with the Dodgers, he hit six home runs with six steals, had that awesome

postseason, hit over 300, two homers, five steals, won the NLCS MVP. And they gave him an extension this offseason. So as long as Edmund is healthy, I think he's past that risk issue. He's going to play every day. They need him to play every day. He's, a great defender and the Dodgers need that as well. I think he returns back to his 20, 22, 23 form. 12 to 14 home runs, 30 steals, a batting average that doesn't kill you to 60-ish range.

I think the problem is he could bet ninth in that lineup. There's also a chance that he bats 6th, 7th. And it's a pretty, you know, stacked lineup. So, yeah, I just, I love this value here. 190, I feel like he should be a top 150 player right now. only thing I want to add, I don't understand why Lane Thomas is being drafted as high as he is.

I know we're being positive. Like, Lane Thomas is going like 70 spots ahead of Cedric Mullins right now. I genuinely don't understand what people see in Lane Thomas. That's all. That's my one thing. We can move on.

Okay. Wanted to give an honorable mention to Nick Castellanos. I know another just kind of boring player, but he got up to a really slow start and from May 29th on he hit 284 with 17 home runs and 64 RBI last year his ADP was 102 now it's 175 so yeah he feels like a pretty just kind of boring get me my 25 home runs to 60 hitter which yeah and a five outfield of the league I'll take some of those guys so an honorable mention for me is brandon nimmo who is another one I have about 70 spots higher than the

consensus. I don't know why he deserves to go so far behind Riley Green and Brian Reynolds. I feel like it's a very similar profile, unless you're taking his 224 batting average last year of phase value, but it's sort of like Boba Chet, where it was a total outlier. And the underlying numbers don't really support that kind of decline. So I think he bounces back with batting average and he's a base stealer now, 15 for 15 last year. And that kind of. category. I think Nimmo's severely underrated. All right. Let's get into the 200 to 300 range and undervalued player. And Scott, right back to you. All right. Carlos Correa is my choice here. He's going 256th on average, which is 136 spots lower than I have him, which is probably going to force me

to move him down some. But I think it's silly because he was terrific last year. At this time, last year, there were legitimate performance concerns for Carlos Correa because it wasn't just that he couldn't stay healthy. He hit 230 with a 7-11 OPS in 2023. So it seemed like he was losing something skill-wise. But bounced back last year with a 905 OPS in the 86 games he played was a stud on a per-game basis. I know we're doing, I know we're doing, I know we're doing Roto rankings here, but by point per game average, I don't have it ready to go, so maybe I shouldn't have brought that up.

But it was 3.33 points per game. Carlos Kui had last year. Yeah, it's comparable to, I don't think Trey Turner was that high, 3.33 last year. It was about the same. That's about a top 40 player probably. Right.

Per game basis, he did have the planter fasciitis, that limited him to just those 86 games. And of course, he has a history of injury. And he deserves to be downgraded some because of that. I thought I had downgraded him some because of that by ranking him only 120th. But it's clear from this early ADP that people just don't want anything to do with him. And it's a shame because he's still good. He is, I think, based on talent and ability, I think clearly still a top 100 hitter.

And probably that's underselling him, right? Like this was a 905 OPS last year. Full season rates, you know, he's unlikely to play 162 games, but his rates last year, 26 homers 100 RBI, 100 runs. Like he's a legitimate, a legitimate impact difference making type player. I get the injury concerns, but man, people just treat these guys like if they have injury concerns, just can't draft them. And I just, I don't get it.

Like in these formats where you don't have IL spots, that hurt. It's a little tougher, yeah. But even then when you're talking about like your 260th player, that's someone who's going to be on your bench pretty often anyway. You know, like you're not drafting must start guys in this range. You might as well get a guy who when he's active, you're going to feel very good about drafting. I've got Carlos Correa 202.

So I don't know if I have him quite as high. Scott, but nearly ahead of ADP. You're a downer. If you look at the past four years for Correa, it's an 834 OPS or better in three of those. 2023 really stands out as the outlier bad season for Carlos Correa. So, you know, it kind of reminds me of Brandon Lau,

who, again, is kind of being buried in this range. And I consider choosing him as the undervalued player here, because Brandon Low's ADP is 250. You know he's going to miss time, but when he plays, he's still a not as good as Correa, but strong per game producer. Correa's dropped about two rounds since last year,

despite how good he was when he played last year. Yeah, that's really the difference. Yeah, because that performance concern should be off the table now. It's just the availability concern. Another shortstop who's being drafted in this range, surprisingly, is Tyler Fitzgerald. And he's almost two I picked here, 15 home runs, 17 steals in just 96 games last year,

and expected to gain eligibility at second base early in the season, a weaker position. I wonder if it's just there are so many short stops. Again, 15 team leagues with a middle infield spot, which is what these ADP numbers are mostly based on. I wouldn't think that would be a factor, but it is surprising to see all these interesting shortstop. short stops dropping this far down the rankings.

Not that there aren't concerns about Tyler Fitzgerald. I was talking him down all of last season, but 250th overall. I mean, come on. Yeah. Power speed guy potentially. Chris, over to you, undervalued 200 to 300. Yeah, Evan Carter, who was being drafted as a top 120 player a year ago. And I get he was bad last year.

And I get that he suffered an injury. And there are concerns about both performance and end injury and ability to stay healthy. But I don't think 45 games should dramatically change the way you view a player at this point in his career. He's 22 years old. He's still a supreme athlete. He still has a very good approach at the plate. There are questions about the power. There should have been questions about the power this time last year, too.

I think the entire Rangers offense is likely to be much better in 2025 than it was in 2024. We're expecting the Semenian bounce back all of us. I think I expect pretty big bounce backs across the board in a lot of ways. So I understand being skeptical of Evan Carter. I understand being worried about drafting him as a starter. 280, right? 278.4, you're barely drafting him as a starter at that point. So I don't, I think this is an overreaction to a bad, what effectively is a bad month

and a half worth of games and an injury that, I don't really have any reason to believe that this injury is just going to ruin Evan Carter's career. It's not like he needed surgery. It's not like, you know, it's some debilitating. It was a stress reaction in his back. So I think people are way overreacting. Evan Carter should be moved down the rankings. But I've got him inside the top 200 just barely.

He's going almost 90 spots later than I'm drafting him. All right. I think maybe one name that we will all agree on being undervalued is Spencer Arrogati who has an ADP of 219.4 and I totally get full season statistics are more predictive than partial season

but progress does exist for young players and I think we saw a lot of progress from Arrogati over his final 15 starts a 331 ERA 11K per 9 3.1 walks per 9 early in the season the walks were untenable

if we get three walks per nine with that many strikeouts, that is very doable. That can work for Spencer Arrogati, who has three pitches with a whiff rate over 37%. He's got a nasty curve, nasty sweeper. The fastball gets hit hard. I mean, that's something he needs to kind of work on in the off season, but he's 96th percentile in extension.

He has a great vertical approach angle. He's got good spin on the fastball. And just organizationally, He's on a good team. He should get run support. They're a really smart pitching organization. They did great work with Kikuchi, did great work with Hunter Brown and Arrogati in season. So I think he's going to continue to get better.

And right now at the ADP, he's going 30 picks after Taj Bradley. I just don't get that. Yeah. 40 picks after Brandon fought. It's weird because we usually overrate the late season breakout. And like, Taj Bradley had a similar stretch early on. But like from what, July on, Todd Bradley was pretty useless.

Yeah. So him going against Argeti, like I think the talent's pretty similar. I think Spencer, Iguerite might be closer to having figured it out than Todge Bradley. So yeah, I don't get that. Yeah.

40 picks after Brandon fought and 50 picks after Shane Boz as well. I know Boz is a former top pitching prospect. But to me, these are all kind of young breakout hopeful pitch. and some of them are going 50 picks apart. And the thing with the raise that you have to keep in mind, and this is something that there's been some really good research on, I think baseball perspectives had a really good piece recently about,

not just like the park factors of George Steinbrenner Field having less advantageous dimensions, but also just tropical field led to a huge increase, not just in strikeouts, but like pitchers had much higher stuff plus, ratings at Topicana, both raise pitchers and away pitchers. And so there was something about the environment of Topicana field that made

pitchers stuff play up in a way that is almost certainly not going to happen in a very different environment. So I think downgrading the raise as a whole makes sense. I would take Argeti ahead of Bradley for sure and

maybe boss, honestly. There have long been insinuations of Tropicana field, not having a very good, what's it called back. Hitters eye. Willie Adamas talked a lot about how he just could not see the ball at Tropicana Field. All right, guys, we're kind of up against it here. But if you want to just rattle off a few other names, don't go too in depth on analysis,

but any other names outside the top 300 that you think are undervalued right now. So I managed to pick a pitcher for this stretch. Cody Bradford. He's going 341st on average. That's 104 spots lower than I have him. He had the 12th best walk rate among pitchers with 70 innings. High fly ball rate. So a low batting average against it led to that combination.

The elite control and the high fly ball rate led to a 101 whip. And more than 8K per 9. So it's a very similar profile for Cody Bradford as like Bryce Miller and Bailey Ober and Shoda, Ina. And it's one that can work in fantasy. Some ERA risk, but the whip could be elite. And there's enough strikeouts. And I don't think he needs to be drafted alongside those guys.

But I am excited in a general sense for Cody Bradford. And there's no way I'd let a draft end this year with him still on the table. Chris? A guy who's going almost as late as Cody Bradford, who I think we would all agree is more talented. Jesus Lazzardo, whose ADP is 447 as a 327th player off the board. Last year, his ADP was 86.9. And I was out on Luzardo at that price. I thought there was injury risk that wasn't being accounted for.

I thought there was performance risk. He's a guy who like the difference between how good Jesus Lazzardo is when he throws 95 and when he throws 96 is really big. And so I was skeptical of him there. I understand being skeptical of him now. but it's a guy who when he's been healthy the past couple of years has been a true must-start pitcher. The Cubs are apparently in on him,

so he should get a better team. I will gladly take his as azzardo on my bench, yes. I have no idea if he will stay healthy. He's been on the aisle multiple times with forearm, elbow stuff. He was shut down last year with a lumbar stress reaction in his back. This is the exact late-round flyer you want to take a shot on, someone who you know has big upside. His 50 starts with the Marlins, the two years prior.

348 ERA, 115 whip, 10.6K per 9, 14% swinging strike rate. So that's SP2 upside for fantasy, and you're getting him outside of the top 400 picks right now. And he's going to get traded. Like, I feel pretty confident in that. You'll see a big bump in ADP once he winds up on a better team. I do believe that for Lazzardo as well. For me, just wanted to give a shout out to Jose Sorriarch.

He was another reliever turned starter who fared very well last season. 342 ERA, 120 whip. 60% ground ball rate was third highest among pitchers with 110 innings. Too many walks, not enough strikeouts. I think there is more strikeout potential here, though. He throws very hard. He has a curveball with a 40% whiff rate and had a 14.8% swinging strike rate as a reliever in 2023. I don't think he gets all the way back there, but can he bump his swinging strike rate up to?

to 11, 12%, and he's like an 8K per 9, 8.5K per 9 kind of guy. If he does that, then yeah, I think he could be a pretty valuable pitcher and obviously going extremely late right now. Just wanted to give some honorable mentions. Kyle Manzardo hit really well when he returned last season. If progressive field plays up for left-handed power again,

I think we can get 25 home runs from him. He was on my list. Andy Paez, if the Dodgers don't sign another outfielder, I think is pretty interesting. Jonathan Aranda, Scott, I'm in, I'm with you. Give this guy a chance to play in Yankee Stadium South, please, because I think big things can happen. And Joey Cantillo, just kind of intrigued.

He has two pitches with a whiff rate over 42%, elite extension, and the Guardians do really well with pitching development. I don't know if he's going to start. I don't know what his role is, but some interesting skills there. So just wanted to mention the name. Anyone else? Well, we didn't mention Jurexon ProFar. Not that he's in this beyond 300 range.

He's going 211th. But that's like 90 spots lower than I'm drafting him. Yep. I agree with that one. And I don't know. There's a lot of them. I know I don't want to go through them all. There's too many names to mention.

If you want to find them out, subscribe to the newsletter and read Chris's work. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye.

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