Fantasy Baseball Today - 12/12: Hot Stove Reactions! Plus Shortstop Thoughts (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 12, 2018

Paul Goldschmidt is a Cardinal (1:30)! Does his value change at all? And is Luke Weaver worth drafting (3:50)? Are we bullish on Nathan Eovaldi (7:00)? And could Adam Ottavino really strike out Babe Ruth every time (10:50)? ... More on the latest moves including closer talk and Andrew McCutchen's move to PHI (15:00), Billy Hamilton with KC (20:10) and some rumors we find interesting ... Taking an early look at Shortstop. What kind of hitter is Trea Turner (28:20)? Is Trevor Story legit (32:00)? How much do we like Corey Seager and Adalberto Mondesi (35:50)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo San Diego. What's going on? It's your hot stove edition. Consider this the winter meeting of me, Chris, and Scott. Guys, where are the winter meetings right now? Yeah. Cool. Is it technically winter?

No. You are asking, I've never experienced a winter at him, so I have to know it. It's like a week before winter. Most of December is fall. Isn't that weird? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Most of September is summer. most of March is winter

Yeah It's weird Most of June is spring And I'll tell you what The baseball stove is a lot hotter Than the weather right now I don't know who did that I think it was Chris right

Yeah Alright let's get into it And then we're going to take a look at Scott's shortstop rankings Talk about Trey Turner Trevor Story See if Scott can get Chris to like Corey Seeger and Alberto Mondesie Has not been easy

but Paul Goldschmidt got traded shortly after our last podcast to the Cardinals for Luke Weaver I mean Luke Weaver Carson Kelly and forever Andy Young and a draft pick Value up down of the same for Paul Goldsmith Scott White I think it's basically the same he had a history obviously Arizona being historically a great place to hit. He had a history of doing better there than on the road, but obviously things changed in Arizona last year with the Humidor, and his numbers were actually much, much better on the road,

like even more extreme than they had ever been the other way before then. So I feel like Star caliber players, they kind of take the path of least resistance to their best, to their usual numbers more often. often than not. So I think he's going to be fine in St. Louis. I think he showed over the final four months of last year that he's as good as ever and should still be a first round pick or at least a second round pick. Yeah.

Golchman had an OPS over 1,000 in his last 110 games after a 675 OPS in his first 48 games. He is 31 years old and only seven steals last year. So he's probably almost certainly not going to be a first round pick, but I'm sure we all would love to have Goldsmith in the second round. And we've talked a lot about him in the offseason. But what about Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andy Young, and a draft pick, Chris. What do you think about this return for the Diamondbacks? It's a light return from a baseball perspective, but it's interesting for fantasy.

Carson Kelly finally gets an opportunity to play every day. He is still only 24 years. old. You know, his prospect status has taken a bit of a hit as he's languished at AAA. He's been there for now three seasons. But, you know, he's a catcher with a pulse. And, you know, presumably 110 starts next season. So, you know, if he gets 110 starts, he could hit 15 homers and, you know, 275.

And that might be enough to make him a top 12 catcher. What happened to Luke Weaver last year? Luke Weaver went from a guy who in his rookie year in 2017, had a 205 ERA in his first 11 appearances. Then he absolutely bombed in his last two starts, 14 earned runs at 7 and 2 thirds. But he looked like completely legit, 65 strikeouts at 52 and 2 thirds in those first 11 starts. And then he comes out last year, 495 ERA, better as a starter, 466 ERA, down to 116 strikeouts and 129 in a third. Scott, is Luke Weaver salvageable? Well, I think that's really what this deal hinges on.

The Cardinals obviously didn't believe he could get them through the ninth after all that. So the Diamondbacks are taking a chance on it. As best I can tell from the data, he didn't do as good a job getting ahead in the count last year. Like, he still threw strikes at a pretty typical rate. But he seems like it doesn't seem like he has a varied enough arsenal to, get away with pitching behind in the count. I mean, most pitchers can't really pitch like that anyway. That's my theory right now anyway.

It wasn't just a small sample in 2017 that got us excited about him. And you look at his minor league track record for his minor league career, the ERA is barely over two. So I didn't have the strikeout rate. He has, he had a strikeout per inning. But not what he did in 2017. Right. Right.

I don't know that he's going to be like, I don't think he has. ace potential. Do you draft him? Do you guys draft Luke Weaver? Let's say you're doing a 20-ish round draft. Yes. 20 rounds? I don't know that I do. I think you're, I think you're looking for

for upside in the late rounds and I think he has some. I'm not super enthused about Luke Weaver, but we saw enough from him that yeah, I'll take a flyer. There's, I just think there's so many pitchers who you could say, oh, this guy has upside.

he's worth a flyer. Carlos Rodan, Reinaldo Lopez. I think I'd look to those types before I look to Weaver, but I do think there's still potential there. I'm glad he's going to get a chance now. This trade assures him that it didn't look like he was going to get that chance in St. Louis. So I would rather him be pitching for someone, and we'll see what it leads to. All right.

Would you guys rather have Luke Weaver or Nate Avaldi? I should really call him Nathan Avaldi. It appears... Oh, definitely, Avaldi. I'm kind of bullish on Avaldi next year. And let me just jump in. I just want everybody to know. We have a sound in the background.

In case you're hearing it, everything's fine. That's me crying. Yeah, that's Chris crying about the new Sonic the Hedgehog movie, which he thinks it just looks really weird. Or it's me crying because I don't think that there's a movie that looks worse than Aquaman. Like Aquaman just looks awful I'm not going to see it But yeah there's a there's a high-pitched sound

That you might hear in the background Don't worry about it everything's fine We've got it under control Scott you're bullish on native all That you signed a four-year deal for $68 million But dude where's my strikeouts Well I'm not that bullish I'm not as bullish as the Red Sox are on him

But And it depends how it depends what the perception It's up being I mean he did have a big postseason showing So maybe there's a potential for him to be overvalued on draft day but if he's going right around 50th at starting pitchers, I would be glad to take him because the way he changed his arsenal made, what are we always said about Nathan Evaldi?

Oh, he throws hard, but it's not a particularly effective fastball. He doesn't miss bats with it. He changed his primary secondary pitch, if that makes sense, to a cutter, which is closer both in shape and velocity to, his fastball. And what happened with that change is his swinging strike rate on the fastball itself went way up. So he learned a way to maximize his full arsenal. And I think that's what we saw

coming to fruition in the postseason. I think there's, I think you could classify him as a breakout candidate. Chris, what do you think, Evaldi, breakout candidate? Sure. In the same way that any pitcher can be a breakout candidate, I suppose. I'm not super enthused by Nathan Avaldi. It's a super limited track record of him being a useful fantasy option, really. Like, even when he was in Miami and he had, like, I think he had one season with, like, a mid-to-high-high-3sERA. He wasn't that good for fantasy. Last year, it was 45 innings or so with the Red Sox. 54.

What? 54, 54 innings, 333-ERA, 12 walks, 48 strikeouts, only three home runs allowed. You know he gets a lot of ground balls. He's probably not going to be a very good whip guy. And we should keep in mind this great story. Incredible what he did for the Red Sox. What in the ALCS when he came in on no day's rest? He came in on like no day's rest at one point, right?

Well, I'm not sure. But here's, well, okay, here's what happened. He had a start against the Yankees in the DS, seven innings, five hits, one run. He had a start at the Astros, six innings, two runs on six hits. And then he made four relief appearances in the World Series. In the first three, they're pretty conventional. Three in a third innings, one hit, no runs. Then he threw six innings in an extra innings game.

I think he took the loss, actually, but he gave up two runs and six innings pitched very well. Yeah, he threw six innings after throwing two innings. And this is a guy who's had two Tommy John surgeries, had elbow surgery. I think he had elbow surgery at the same. start of last season, right, to remove some loose bodies. I don't remember that, but you're always right about that stuff. I just, there's a lot of risk beyond just the fact that he just might not be that good. Like, if he goes, like, 200th overall, I'm fine taking him there, because there's no risk.

But if he starts to creep up or if there's someone in your league who likes him a lot and wants to take him in, like, the 13th or 14th round, I'm fine passing, too. Okay, it's Nate of Aldi. So what else has happened? I don't want to just go news item by news item, but what else has happened that you think has a big fantasy impact? We got McCutcheon, three years, $50 million to the Phillies. Brandon Morrow could miss the start of the season.

He was excellent last year. Again, 24 saves and 26 chances before going on the DL. Could miss the start of the season due to elbow surgery. Buster Posey might not be full go at the start of the season. He had off-season hip surgery. Kenley Jansen expected to be 100% for spring training. I think the most important thing is that Adamadovino thinks he'd strike out Babe Ruth every time. And he's 100%.

Correct. You know, I... That's what I thought. That's what I thought, too. In a time machine situation. If we're doing, like, if we're, like, stealing Babe Ruth from the orphanage when he's two years old and moving him into, you know, 1992 and bringing him up with my... Okay. Then Babe Ruth would be very good.

But in a strictly time, like, if... Babe Ruth just gets dropped into the middle of, I don't know, course field next year. And he's facing Adamadovino. First of all, imagine how terrified he is by like the scoreboards and all the planes and everything. You're introducing some variables here. He's just so thrown off.

An iPhone would absolutely terrify Babeo. At iPhone? Yeah, probably. All right. But what if you dropped Adamadovino in? to 1911. He'd be the greatest pitcher in the history of the world. Yeah.

He would strike out every single player. That's kind of what I thought. But I don't want to argue with Tim Kirchon. Tim Kircham was like, this is ridiculous. Babe Ruth would be amazing, no matter what. He's wrong. Of course. Of course.

It's ridiculous. Scott, what do you think? How many, what would, if he gave Babe Ruth 50 at bats against Adam, out of, you know, what would his batting average be? well i don't think adam adavino would literally strike him out every time but the broader point that adavino and chris are trying to make i think it's true like just the the way pitching has evolved over a hundred years is uh it would it would blow babe ruth's mind now i i think babe ruth would be like tim tibo i think that's what he'd be i think it'd be a poor man's madison bumgarner I think he'd hit 250.

No way. Not a chance. With all the shifts? No, he wouldn't hit... He wouldn't... He would strike out more than 75% of the time. Can we look up, like, what he did against, like, Christy Mathewson? It does matter.

This is the thing is that those dudes were throwing, like, 89-mile-hour fastball... Are they? I thought they were throwing pretty hard. Oh, I thought they were doing it. Here's... All right. Here's my thing on this round. have a velocity reading.

Here's my thing on this general topic. You look at like the world record for like the 100 meter dash in 1911. It was probably like a second and a half slower than it currently is. Any time that we can measure things like that, the amount of progress that has been made constantly improves. Of course. And in sports for some reason, people believe that like, 200,000. 110 pound Kevin McHale would be able to dominate the NBA in 2018. Like, it just progress moves forward.

But he was, but Babe Ruth was really big. Like, Babe Ruth's even a good size for today's game. I think Bay Ruth was like... He was like 6-2-something. 2,000 pounds. Ray Ruth was 6-2-215 pounds. He was like Paul Goldschmidt's size. Yeah, he's a big dude.

You know, he's not a huge... Stick it with the time machine scenario, right? Like if Babe Ruth had a year to face Adamadovino to, like, practice against him, then maybe he'd be fine. He hit 250. All right, so what other fantasy stuff? Scott, what's got your rankings in an upheaval? I don't know that anything has them in an upheaval.

Closer talk is always going to create the most movement. and there was a report just in the last couple days that the Diamondbacks are leaning toward using Archie Bradley as their closer, which is the first time I think I've actually heard that come out of management's mouth there. No, it wasn't that great last year, but we know how good he can be. And I would prefer clarity in that situation because prior to that there was none. Boxburger kind of imploded and nobody else really stepped up before season's end. So that's one thing.

Andrew McCutcheon, I'm surprised he got the deal he got with the Phillies. I didn't think he'd get a three-year deal anywhere. Yes. But I do, I'm still intrigued by the idea of him playing in a hitter's park for an extended period. I know it didn't lead to much with Yankees, but obviously it was a much smaller sample. It's going to get a full season to show what he can do there. I mean, Pittsburgh's and San Francisco, certainly, tough place to hit. Sure.

Yeah, well, I'm sorry. Let me just give the numbers on McCutcheon. He batted only 225 at Yankee Stadium, but he slugged 450. This is 11 games, so you don't want to make too much of it. I mean, five homers and 87 at bat. Five homers? I had two homers. Overall with Yankees.

Oh, yeah, no. At Yankee Stadium, he had two homers in 11 games. So he had Last two years His OPS at home and on the road Was nearly identical But his power was much better on the road Where his OBP would be better at home

That was the weird thing Yeah so McCutcheon Just Everybody knows if you listen to this podcast You know I'm not a McCutcheon guy But just the raw numbers Keep in mind he plays a lot of games He plays like 155 games every year

The last three years, haven't been great years for him. And he's been number 19, number 10, and number 20. Well, I'll go in chronological order. Number 24, number 10, and number 19. 2016, 17, and 18 in points leagues. Number 26, number 17, and number 33 outbuilder in categories slash rotisserie leagues. He's probably going to go underdrafted next year, because we're going to get excited about other guys and kind of pass on him.

But he hit 20 homers and stole 14 bases. And there aren't a ton of guys who do that. Even, you know, hopefully he won't hit 255 again. But I still think he's a useful fantasy option, especially, I mean, really in both formats. Well, it'll be T-Leaks. He's much better. This is a really good scenario for him because he's 32 years old and the numbers have obviously declined in recent years. But the batted ball profile has remained virtually the same.

So, I mean, going to a small park could be what brings that last bit of juice out of him. And just for context, in those early mock drafts that I've mentioned in previous podcast, his ADP was 153. I love him at that value. Yeah, even I like Andrew McCutche at that value. Can I mention a move that hasn't been made yet, but hopefully will be made that could have a huge impact on rankings? Can we get a Martinez somewhere? Where, who?

Jose Martinez, can we just get him somewhere? Well, it's the Dodgers are the latest team that's interested in him, which is not where I would like to see him go. That makes perfect sense. Does it? From the standpoint of what kind of team they are and how they view players, but

I would hate it. Yeah, right. He's a DH. And he just needs to be a DH. And can we get him to like the raise? Yes. Or something? That would be great. Or the white socks? Sure.

Let me tell you the rumor that I think would have the biggest fantasy impact. Jim Bowden saying that the Rockies are interested in trading for a first basement. And the ones that he said could possibly be on the list would be Carlos Santana, Ebene, Encarnacion, Jose Abraeu, and Will Myers. So it looks like... Jose Abrae would be amazing in Coorsfield. That would be so much fun. He could legitimately put up Nolan Aeronauter numbers in Coorsfield, I think.

given the fact that he hits 290 already every year he could hit 310 with 37 38 homers every year we're there it would be fun so hopefully that'll happen I'm going to just say some other headlines and you tell me if there's any fantasy impact if you care at all

well Brandon Morrow might miss the start of the season due to elbow surgery so that's important right sure could be I expected him to be the Cubs closer, so yeah. Is there another name that comes to mind?

Well, Pedro Strokes a free agent, and he was the one who filled in for Morrow down the stretch last season. I imagine the Cubs opening day closer isn't on their roster right now. Okay. More news. Buster Posey might not be full-go at the start of the season. I wonder where he's going, Buster Posey. 176th in those drafts, and there were somewhere he was after two hundred and

100. Touchin or Posey? Posey. Posey. Kenley Jansen expect to be 100% for spring training. I already said that one. All right. Other stuff.

Billy Hamilton, one year, $5.25 million to the Royals. Love it. Yeah. It's good news. It's good news. Team that actually wants to play him because for some reason they think it's

1984. I mean, they might have the league's top three base dealers in their lineup. between him Mondesie and Whitmeryfield. So that's interesting. I think Hamilton was such a disappointment last year. I mean, he didn't do the one thing you draft him to do, really.

He had less than 30 stolen bases, and obviously he had poorly like he always does. But I see no reason to think he can't get back to being a 40-50 steel guy, and now you probably don't have to pay a fourth, fifth, sixth round pick for him. Yeah, dude, if Billy Hamilton can just sit two, Let me tell you what he's done as a 250 hitter with more than 600 played appearances in 2014 and 2017. I mean, it's not like going to completely blow you away, but he was a top 20 outfielder, I think, both times in Roto.

You know, in Points League's, you can leave him. But just hit 250. He hit 234, I think, last year. 236. Just hit 250, Billy Hamilton. And it's a good fit for his skill set in that park too because he's a great defender. They have a big outfield.

So, you know, you would guess he probably hits ninth in that lineup. They might have a 280 team on base percentage. But just let him run. The way they let Whitmeryfield and Alberto Mondesie run last year. And the fact that they signed this guy, that actually,

it kind of makes me like Merrifield and Mondesie a little more, too. because this is clearly it seems to be an organizational philosophy that they want half the league stolen bases are going to come from Kansas City that's awesome

okay other stuff Carlos Carrasco signed a three-year contract extension only 37.25 million he needs a new agent right what was that all about it I mean it was it guaranteed an option year

that the team had for 2021 I believe and then added I think two years on after that. But the most he's going to make at any point is like 14 million per year. It's wild. Yeah, that's quite a deal for the Indians.

Detroit signed Tyson Ross to a one-year deal, 5.75 million. Tyson Ross. Cool. Yeah, no thanks. Oh, this is going to end up well. Philly manager Gabe Kapler says he's going to hold his players publicly accountable more often. Players love that. Sure.

Whatever. Thanks a bit. Okay. Tampa Bay is going to continue to use an opener. Dave Roberts and Clayton Kirshaw are both hopeful that Clayton Kirshaw can regain some velocity this year. Hittsburg's going to use an opener, or they're going to experiment with an opener. They mentioned that in recent days. Yeah, so that leads us to an email that we can read now from Jesse.

Jesse says, I guess, Chris, what did you say about openers if you? That I don't think it really matters all that much, and that Tampa Bay was really the only team did it all that often. Jesse says, I claim poppycock and shenanigans on two things Chris said. First, multiple teams experimented last year with the opener concept to finish the season, with the A's even starting Liam Hendrix in the wildcard game. No way the Rangers won't at least think about it with who they have. Chavez might end up with 15 wins, bold prediction.

Secondly, positional eligibility doesn't matter. I keep pace in my daily leagues because I can switch my players according to their pitching matchup with necessities. What did you say? That's a mischaracter. of my argument. I agree. Jesse.

Position eligibility does matter. It doesn't give you like it doesn't. It's not like, because I think the question was Jose Ramirez. And if he was second base eligible and third base eligible, would he be better than mooky bats and Mike Trout? It's valuable. It matters.

It doesn't fundamentally change how you value a player. And I don't think it matters as much as it did five years ago. And there's, there's not as much a difference between shortstop and first base and outfield anymore. There's one position where value really changed. Yeah, but players with multi-position eligibility can really

help you for sure. That's important, but yeah, it's like position scarcity is what Chris was talking about, right? Yeah, a little bit of both. Okay. What else we got here? Mickey Calloway said that Peter O'Brien has a chance to make the opening

day roster. As who? What? As the the stand-in until they're ready to call up. I'm legitimately confused right now. You mean Peter Alonzo. Yeah, Peter Alonzo.

Peter O'Brien is on the Marlitt. Peter Alonzo might be as their first basement. Okay, that's who I was referring. Awesome. So that makes more sense. I just assume the Mets had picked up O'Brien on a minor league deal or whatever. I think Peter Alonzo could be Reese Hoskins.

I think it's a similar skill set for me. Toronto released Troy 2 Lewitsky. The White Sox acquired Ivan Nova. Andrew Benintennie's going to lead off, and Mookie Betts is going to bat second. Cool. Cool, yeah, all right. Mickey Calloway said Edwin Diaz is the closer,

and it makes sense to keep him in that role. So that's good. Yeah. Baltimore is going to hire Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde to be their manager. Everybody hide. Yep. And Brian Cashman says Gary Sanchez is the Yankees

catcher. Until they trade him. There's not. There's some like rumors of the Yankees being involved with J.T. Romuto, but there's also rumors that it could be a three-way that they're involved with. So

Gary Sanchez is good. Just let him play. Oh, I would love to see Noah Cindergarde go to the Yankees. How fun would that be? I'm grateful for any new pitcher for Yankees fans to turn on inevitably. Yeah, we'll hate Paxton soon.

All right, Scott's shortstop rankings. Let's get into him in just a bit. But I'm excited about today's sponsor. Because I was looking at some pictures today because Facebook did a thing that made me very emotional. I put together like a photo album of my 2018. And I'm just getting older. I am getting older.

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looking young. And, you know, we're celebrities in our own right. So we should be using the forehims.com slash FBT skin anti-aging kit. Again, $20 off your first month, forhams.com slash FBT skin. All right, Scott. Just a few shortstop questions for you. I don't want to get too deep into these position rankings because it's almost January. We're going to be doing these for real pretty soon. But, uh, yeah, this is a little warm up. Yeah, just a little bit. Yeah. Crack your knuckles. What do you think about Trey Turner? What kind of a hitter is Trey Turner? I think Trey Turner is a poor, like a, he's a low-line drive hitter,

so he's always going to be, unless that changes, he's going to hit for lower average than we want him to. I think that should just be baked into the assessment of him now instead of just assuming year after year it's a fluke, he's going to have a huge breakthrough this year. So I think that means he probably doesn't need to be drafted in the first round in a points league. Now, in a roto league, obviously, he's one of the elite base dealers. And he needs to be drafted in the first round of that format.

But I'm not counting on more than like a 275, 280 batting average, more than like 15 homers. And mostly the steals are going to be what carries him. Yeah, and the steals were down last year. What's your question, Chris? So last year he batted second, 78 times. So he was hitting in front of Bryce Harper for most of those games. Presumably, Bryce Harper didn't miss much time last year. He only stole 16 bases or 17 bases in those games.

In 63 games batting first, he stole 22 bases. Now, he attempted 23 in both sample sizes, but still 23 bases in 63 games versus 23 steals or 23 steal attempts in 78 games, that's not nothing. You know, if he's batting leadoff or if they're more willing to let him run when they don't have a big bat like Bryce Harper behind him, that could make a difference. And then, you know, he batted fifth, sixth, and seventh in 17 games and only attempted, he tempted five steals in those games. So if he's batting first and he's not in front of Bryce Harper,

maybe he gets more opportunities to run. Well, what's the difference in your rankings with him, Scott, points versus Roto, or Turner? In terms of where he actually slots at the position? Because you have him fourth in points. Okay. Behind Lindor, Bregman, Machado, Turner. Would you move Turner ahead of any of those three, Lindor, Bregman, or Machado?

No. I think he's probably fourth in both, but it's a difference of where he... How early he goes among players overall. Like, he's a first rounder in head to head. He's a second rounder in head to head. I mean, he's a stud in both. But it's... I'm no longer assuming he's going to transform into a better hitter than the one we've already seen. Okay.

So as long as he keeps running a lot, and there's no reason to think that's going to change anytime in the near future, may actually go up, like Chris was saying. He's going to be a stud. All right. Last thing on Trey Turner, his 162 games steals pace in three seasons, because we haven't seen him play a full. Oh, we did last year. The first two were short in seasons. 96 games, 66. No, sorry.

How many games did he play? 3.98. Thank you. 73 steals, 76 steals, 43 steals. That was his 162 game pace for those three years. And last year he played exactly 162 games. So it was pretty easy to calculate that. Next question.

Do you believe in Trevor Story? What are you singing over there? In Life After Love. Oh, I thought you were going to go with Do You Believe in Magic? But instead you went with the chair. I went with the better song. Chris, do you believe in Trevor Story? That wasn't bad.

was it? That was pretty good. It was too good. I do not believe in what Trevor's story did last year. And I didn't believe in what Trevor's story was doing all season. And I looked like a big old dummy doing that. You still do. So, if the strikeout gains hold and if he continues to run,

those were the biggest changes last year. and it made him a stud. So if that happens, then I see no reason to think the other numbers won't follow suit. But it's a big if. I mean, a year ago at this time, we were saying if the strikeout gains hold for John Carlos Stanton, he's going to be an MVP caliber player again,

and they didn't and he wasn't. Right. So that's what you sort of attribute 2017 to. Why was 2017 so bad for Trevor's story? The strikeout rate was horrible. Right. But it was pretty bad. It was bad in 2016, and he was amazing. Yeah. That was the bigger fluke, I think. Okay. Understood. And how many steals would you project for Trevor's story? He had, what did he have last year?

That's the impossible thing to say. He had 27. 27. He attempted 33 steals in 157 games. Now, part of that was he was on base more, but not that much more, because he only attempted nine steals. in 145 games in 2017. I don't know how you answer that question. That's a huge question for him because if he can sustain those strikeout gains, then it's not going to matter.

He's going to be very good no matter what because of the power and the park that he plays in. But if he slips back to 30% strikeouts and all of a sudden maybe he's more of like a 265, hitter, then the stolen basis could be really key. It's a lot of ifs. I mean, I think the upside is legit. One way I could sum it up is I'm putting together my top 100 dynasty rankings right now.

And part of that process is I assign every player a score, a one to five score, five being the best, for present value, future value and confidence, how confident I am at them reaching their present and future value. Trevor's story is a 5-5-2, meaning my confidence level is only a 2 on that 1-to-5 scale. He's going to be the highest ranked player who's only a 2

in terms of my confidence level. I mean, it's a risk. It's a risk, but that's probably why you're going to get him in the second or third round instead of the first round. Chris, you got any ADP? Yes. I have two different sources in front of me. Which one would you prefer?

They both mostly agree. Source wide. In those nine, the two sources are those nine early mock drafts that are on fan graphs. And the other one is the National Fantasy Baseball Championship ADP, which is picking from only 15 leagues. So neither is more robust than the other. But he's in the 20 range in both. He's 22.8 in those nine early mock drafts. Man, yeah, that is a risk.

That is a risk for a second. round pick for sure. Scott, you think you can convince, actually, I don't know where Chris is on this. Corey Seeger, you have ninth, Alberto Monosie, you have 12th. Can you convince Chris to like them? I think Chris is going to like Corey Segar this year. I don't think Chris like Corey Seeger is a second or third round pick, but as a sixth or seventh round pick, I think he's fully on board. And I don't, I think the track record of position players coming back from Tommy John's surgery is favorable enough that I think everybody should steer into that. Part of it's part of the reason he's able to slide that far is because the positions improved as a whole so much. Trevor Storreys become this stud-level player.

You know, Xander Bogartes has started to live up to the potential more. I think there's a couple names of forgetting too. Bregman, Manny Machado, they're both eligible there. There's, like, why, it's kind of just the guy coming back from Tommy John surgery has to go behind all these guys because he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. So he ends up being a great value. Azor, do you have his point league ranks for the last couple of years? No, I don't. Corey Seeger, but I can get it for you.

Yeah, because my thing with him is, I think he's a lot better in. head-to-head than points or the head-to-head than Roto, excuse me. In 2017, he had a good year. He had 2.95, 22 homers, 85 runs, 77 RBI. He was the number 77 overall player in Roto and number 10 at shortstop. I think he can be better than he was in 2017, but he's still, there's a limit on how good he can be in Roto for a couple of reasons. One, it's never going to be a big home run guy

unless he changes his swing because he just doesn't hit the ball in the air very much. And two, he just doesn't steal bases. He's a little bit like the pre-big big breakout Freddie Freeman. This is Corey Seeger we are talking about. And he was number 10 in Roto in 2017. He was number six in points. And yeah, like Chris, he had 295, 22 home runs, four steals. and about one walk for every two strikeouts. He only drove in 77 runs. He doesn't have incredible plate discipline. He's going to hit for a high average, but...

Yeah, very safe batting average source. Yeah, but that's... One of the best line drive hitters in the game. That's kind of the only place that he's really stood out so far in his career. Okay, guys. How about Outer-Bertial Mondesie? So, Chris, is that you just don't... You think he's going too early,

or you just don't have much interest at all in Monaster? to see. So I, it's tough. I was, I think I was talking to Scott about this in the office the other day, where I was going through, um,

my rhodo valuation, uh, and looking at projections. And I kept trying to tinker with Adelberto, Mondece's projections to get him out of like the top 30 range. It's hard. If he's going to steal a lot of bait,

this is the thing with Roto. if you're going to steal 40 bases, it kind of doesn't matter what else you do. You're going to be a top 30 hitter. It's really hard not to be. And that's because they're so scarce. And if he steals 55 bases next year, he might be a second round type of player.

And there's a ton of risk in his profile. Yes. There is. I mean, he only became a hitter. what last year at triple a that was the first sign that he could hit some and horrible in terms of plate discipline but Mondesie had made the kind of contact

last year that it seems like it would sustain like it could sustain a high babb and the strikeout rate really wasn't as bad as I think the general assumption would be plus he has power. So I feel like this is, I feel like this is Billy Hamilton

who hits home runs. And he strikes out. I mean, Billy Hamilton used to go in round four himself. Yeah. So who did you, who you have him 12th, Monasey? Who did you put him ahead of?

Like who just missed the cut in your top 12? Well, I have him 12th in what points leagues. I think in Roto, I have him seventh. Ew. Okay. And it was kind of a similar, process Chris was talking about like okay I know Corey Seeger's better than

Adelbert L'Amondisi I know Xander Bogart's is so I wanted to rank them ahead of him but when push comes to shove based on the needs Mondesie has the potential to meet you can't draft him ahead of you can't draft him behind them. Why you have him ahead of Carlos

Correa in Roto yeah that's a spicy meatball it makes sense I mean it does but Carlos Correa has been in overwhelming fantasy option. Not two years ago.

Okay, but for most of his career, I think it's fair to say overall. He has not lived up to expectations. And now his back issues. I think he's less than a bigger than not. Yeah, I don't think I could do that. I just, I have much more faith in Carlos Correa than I do in Mondesi repeating. I understand the steals. Now, here's where it gets interesting.

Here's the shortstop eligible players who were drafted ahead of him on average in those nine early mock drafts. D.D. Gregorius, which he's not going to play early next year, right? Yeah, he's going to miss it probably at least a month and a half. Probably free that news. Right, right, right. Gene Segarra, who I like a lot, but fair. Glaber Torres, Corey Seeger, Xander Bogartz. I think he's in that discussion.

Yeah, I could see that, but I think Carlos Correa has first round potential. None of those other guys do. Carlos Caros Carrears going 48 spots higher than him. I don't think that's a premium that I'm going to be willing to pay. Sure, I could also understand that. Chris, Scott, anything else you guys want to look at with Scott's shortstop rankings? I mean, just generally speaking, I've talked about how many, more high-end short stops there are

and how I still consider Corey Seeger a high-end shortstop and I have him ninth, that should tell you that it's really less than ever before. It's a position you don't need to pay up for. So I would be thrilled to get

Carlos Correa. It is going right. Seeger, it is going rate. I probably won't be the guy who drafts Mondesi. But in a points league, I think he could be in a end up being a huge value because everybody's just going to assume he's this rhodo-specific guy

and even though big base dealers I mean two points of steel that adds up to big point production too so I think there's a lot of potential to get in the middle rounds a short stub who performs like a stud and that's not something we've

like there's more potential to do it at that position than at first base which is just crazy to think about I only got one more email to read here and then we will let everybody get on their merry way, and I'll read it right after this. All right, here we go at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. This email comes from Gangsta Santa. Ooh, yeah, Gangsta Santa.

Can Cole Hamels come close to replicating his 2018, just as 2018 with the Cubs? Over the full season of 2019, I'm looking to go back to back in my Dynasty League, could use a stable arm. Pitching cats, meow, are, Quality starts, strikeouts, ERA. I don't have to read all this.

Would you give up a guy like Dakota Hudson for Cole Hamels? Yeah, I don't think Dakota Hudson has enough upside to pass up. What I see is like a number three arm in fantasy. He had a 236 ERA and 12 starts with the Cubs, which isn't going to happen. But he's, he improved enough as a strikeout pitcher. And most of the really bad home run starts came when he was in Texas last year. that I think he's a mid-3 ZRA guy still and we'll eat a lot of innings

probably win a decent number of games too with the Cubs would you rather have Nick Povetta or Cole Hamels I'd rather have Cole Hamill's I'd probably rather have Cole Hamill's I probably won't draft Cole Hamill's very much though

Cole Hamill's I still leave Nick Povetta though Hamels or Chris Archer Archer for me Yeah Higher ceiling All right everybody Thank you for listening

Thank you gangsta Santa For Not terrorizing us And for emailing us instead Appreciate that And we'll talk to you next week Are you guys in next week? Yeah

I am All right I mean We'll talk about it up Next week baby When it's Oh gosh Just shut about that

I'm just end the show All right goodbye Bye Bye Where they're going to ask you get it