Fantasy Baseball Today - 12/19: Roto Draft Recap and More Free Agency News (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 19, 2018

Starting with the news, we react to the trades of Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana (5:10). Was last year just an unlucky year for Santana? And we compare Charlie Morton to J.A. Happ and discuss their values (12:50) ... Reviewing our 12-team Roto draft (17:50)! Find out how high Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ronald Acuna were drafted. Also, how did we draft RPs (24:35) with this weird bullpen landscape? ... A general discussion about hitting vs. pitching in 2019 (31:31), plus our favorite and least-favorite picks from the draft (43:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everybody. I just wanted to give you a quick programming update before we start today's show. This will be our final show of 2018. We won't be in next week. And then we'll come back in early January and start up our 2019 fantasy baseball coverage. But I will be on paternity leave for the month of January. So it's going to be Scott, Heath, and Chris taking over and helping you out with your fantasy questions and getting you caught up on everything else in the fantasy baseball world. So with that said, have a great holiday, everybody. Enjoy today's show.

Enjoy the new year, and I will talk to you in February. Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With Fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. And welcome back to Fantasy Baseball today.

We are reviewing a 12-team mock draft. Wait till you hear where Ronald. Lecuna went in this one. It is a roto draft, and he went pretty early. So get your thinking cap sign. How early did he go? You go first overall? You go fifth? He go tenth. A little later than that. We'll tell you in a bit. We got a lot of news and notes to get to as well.

Trades, signings. Scott and Chris are here. I'm Adam. Hi. Hi, guys. Chris, are you okay? Why wouldn't I be? Well, you just, you got blasted via email by Thomas. No, I didn't. No. You didn't get blasted? No, no, because if you're objectively wrong about something, your criticisms don't land.

Thomas, you now know what it's like to argue with Chris Towers. It's just not worth it. Not right, Scott. That's right. That's right. Thomas, I don't. I have a do not engage policy for Chris on Twitter. Oh, on Twitter, yeah.

I break it every now and then. Tommy did not appreciate Chris's comments about Babe Ruth striking out all the time against Adam Ottivino. Chris Tower's disrespect to Babe Ruth, he wrote a really long email. One of the highlights was, I don't feel Chris Tower shows respect for his elders, including some of the comments to Heath, regardless if you're kidding or not, it makes you look bad. You honestly don't think Babe Ruth would have evolved, too. There's more to baseball than advanced. Man's stats.

I could care less if you have the highest IQ in the room. It means nothing. That's pissed me off. Why do you think Chris has the highest IQ with the room? I mean, let's... Come on. Anyway, Tommy went out with his very long email, and then he mentioned Tony LaRuso. You know the thing that annoyed me?

The thing that offended me most? What was that? Have you ever watched Ken Burns baseball? No, I haven't. Scott, you haven't either, right? No, I haven't. Heath hasn't. I've watched it several times.

It's delightful. And yet, he casts aspersions on my knowledge, as if I can't queue up Netflix. My guy, I'm a Ken Burns fan. We call ourselves Burnsheads. No. I watched all of his Vietnam documentary, the Civil War documentary. Amazing. I've watched it like five times.

Don't come at me with some Ken Burns. stuff. I've got the book. I've got the Ken Burns baseball copy paper. I think Scott Adam and Heath are you to make Chris Towers watch the history of baseball by Ken Burns in its entirety. And if you honestly don't love it, why on earth are you a fantasy baseball analyst? I don't know why you guys are fantasy baseball analysts if you haven't watched it. That's objectively the most important thing you could watch as an analyst. Yeah. Last thing was, where's the part about Tony LaRuso? Did you see how Tony Laruso put that obnoxious idiot from the show High Heat in his place? That's kind of how I feel about Chris right now.

And then after all this from Tommy, this big long email, I should only read about 20% of. Who's Tony Laruso, first of all. Yeah, he did write LaRuso. He did write. Okay. All right. So the karate kid. Yes.

Okay. All right. Just making sure. Chris writes, yeah. But Tony LaRuso was wrong, though. That was it. And that just set Tommy off. Wow.

You are such a. punk, Tony LaRuso, he notes again, was wrong. Ha, L.O. Okay. So who makes the final call on something like this? Is it Adam or does CBS have input into this show in its content? You just prove my point. You're immature and you're not a baseball man. You do not respect the history of the game, and obviously you don't respect the show.

Roasted. It's actually, it's the kid who plays Young Shelton. Actually, he's the one who has final say on all programming decisions. Tommy, I like you, and I agree with you about Chris. He's just awful. But, you know, but we love him. But now you know what it's like to argue with Chris. It's never fun.

However, that was a great email, and we thank you for it. News and notes. Edwin and Carnaccio is on Seattle. Carlos Santana and Jake Bowers are on Cleveland, and Yandi Diaz is on Tampa Bay. How about that? And Yonder Alonzo is on the White Sox. Scott, what do you think about it?

That was a really weird three-team trade because, first of all, it seems off-brand for the Mariners this off-season, who were under the assumption of rebuilding, and they acquire the oldest player in Edwin and Carnaccio. I've got to think he's going to be on the move again this off-season. And it's also weird because I feel like the Indians got the best two players. Jake Bowers and Carlos Santaghan, the best two assets, I should say. Why did they just give away Jake Bowers? I know they like Yandi Diaz, but that was so surprising. to be. Yeah. Yandi Diaz is a super raised player. There's like a ton of

like below the surface analytics kind of stuff that suggests that he could be really good. He hits the ball pretty hard. Hits the ball on the ground too much but overall, you know, has some versatility in the field, has I think he can run a bit, but for the most part it's like one of those the rays think they are and probably are small. smarter than most teams, and they view him, I think, as a player that they can figure out. Well, but you figure him out and maybe he becomes Jake Bowers? Yeah, I mean, Jake Bowers wasn't that good last year.

It is worth of no. He wasn't, but there were good signs and obviously a more attractive pedigree. So, I don't know. I think he's better than John D.S. Jake Bowers' last two months were just awful. August and September, pulling it up now. he had a 153 batting average, 290 on base, which is good, 29 walks in 49 games. But 56 strikeouts, he had a 550 OPS.

All right, so what do we think about Carlos Santana and Ebben Encarnacion? And Encarnacion last year finished as the number 10 first base been in points leagues, number 6 in Roto. He missed some time. He played 137 games. And he now has seven straight seasons with 32 or more homers and 98 or more RBIs. Carlos Santana was actually the number Number five first baseman in points leagues Ridiculous. Number 16 in Roto.

Part of that is first base being bad. Part of that is him walking more than he struck out. I mean, he's always up there in points leagues. It was his worst season in as long as I can remember. But obviously it wasn't a disaster or he couldn't have finished as high as he did in points. I think it's a good thing that he's going back where he's comfortable, back where he knows he's appreciated.

I suspect he'll be a top 10 for first basement in points leagues again, though, you know, the ceiling is, is of course, limited because he's not going to hit for average. Yeah, was last year for Santana just a bad luck season? He batted 229, 24 homers, and I will mention he was much better at home. He batted 195 on the road, and obviously, and then you go back to 2000. He was much better on the road when he was with Cleveland Yeah, I feel like the bad ball profile If I can get it pulled up in time I'm not sure going off top of my head

I feel like it was pretty much the same as it always is And so it was just like He was within the range It was Carlos Santana falling within his range of possible outcomes And it just happened to be on the low side of that range And I suspect he'll be Back to normal this year not that he was that far off.

Who are you more optimistic about a 32-year-old Santana, who'll be 32 in April, or Encanacion who will be 36 years old next month? I rank Incarnacion higher. He was better last year. He's been better for ever since he became a starter in Toronto. The best version of him is better than the best version of Carlos Santana. And I feel like Incarnazion, he's at that age now

where any year it could all just end. I mean, the strikeout-out walk ratio has been getting worse now for the last two or three years. He is showing some signs of age, but he hasn't, his production hasn't dropped to the point that he's below Santana yet. It'll be interesting to see where he winds up because I don't think it'll be Seattle. Right, right. And Santana, in the roto draft, we're going to talk about, Santana went in the 16th round. pretty, you know, fairly late. And Incarnazio won 1003rd overall, right around there, like end of round 9.

So that seems like pretty fair value. Both those seem fine. Yeah, two picks ahead of Josh Donaldson for Eben Encarnacion, and he's a lot better than Donaldson last year, obviously. Other news items. So what else, what else stood out? Well, first of all, Yanni Diaz, is he worth drafting now with the raise? He went in the 21st round of this Roto League.

Yeah, he's worth, he's worth drafting right around 250th overall. You think? That's almost exactly where he's. You're buying what the rays are preaching here, that they're going to, I guess, fly ball revolutionize them. Is there any such thing? Is there any such thing as a bad pick at 250th overall? Let's just look at some of the players.

That's just some of the names mentioned in the same range. Ty Butry Pottry Possible closer Yeah Elias Dias Omar Narvaez I mean

You're picking Number two catchers In a two catcher league Ryan O'Hern Oh he was good last year Yeah Good showed a lot of power Down the stretch last year

I remember Carlos Rodon Jake Garrietta Tyler Skaggs Yeah exactly I would Ross Stripling I'd rather have all these guys Tyler Skaggs is that late My goodness.

What a steal. Not, probably not going to make a difference. What? Tyler Skaggs? What? Come on, Tyler Skaggs is good. Michael Franco didn't get drafted, so.

I mean, I get what you're saying, that you're talking, around pick 250 or something that happens to be right before the very end of this draft. And so if you know it's the end of the draft and everything that isn't drafted is going to be on waivers, I guess there's a case.

there's a case to be made that there is no bad pick there. But if it was a two, if it was picked 250 in a, you know, 360 pick draft, then yeah, I think there are bad picks that pick 250. Michael Brantley to Houston, two years and $32 million. It's a nice,

nice little addition there for the Astros. You should fit in well. Yeah. What do you think? I would guess he gets more time off in Houston than he would otherwise. I guess the more interesting question is what does it mean for Kyle Tucker. Kyle Tucker.

I don't know what it means. There are rumblings that he is going to be the main piece in a J.T. Real Muto deal, but there have been many a Real Muto rumbling, and none have come to fruition yet. So I'll believe it when I see it. And we've got some pitcher signings. Charlie Morton to the raise. Jay Hap, re-signs with the Yankees. Lance Lynn, $30 million over three years with the Rangers.

Matt Harvey to the Angels. Morton, Hap, Harvey, and Lynn. Who do you like better next year? Charlie Morton with the Rays or Jayhap with the Yankees? Morton. Yeah, it's not even close for me. Yeah, it's just, I mean, Charlie Morden's really good. He just doesn't get.

of you innings, you know, he gets hurt all the time. Career high is like 172 innings, but Charlie Borton, the last two seasons, I mean, 313 ERA last year, 2017, he had a 362 ERA. Last year, he struck out 201 batters in 167

innings. Omg. Where did he go? This is going to be, you know, if things play out the way I expect them to, this is going to be one of the best free agent signings. They got a player,

who is coming off by far his best season, but, you know, two years, really three years of showing improvement. And they got him at a discount somehow. So that was good on the race. I mean, I don't think Hap's a bad pick. You know, I'm a little more skeptical of what he did last year because other than the fact that he got a higher swinging strike rate on his fastball, I don't really know what was behind it.

Did you see? I noticed his bad ball. They're both in the 30 to 40 range for me. Yeah, and they were similarly drafted in the Roto draft. 12th round for Morton, sorry interrupt you there. 12th round for Morton, 14th round for Hap, 12-team league. But what I couldn't believe with Hap was that he became like this flyball pitcher with the Yankees. And that doesn't really help typically.

And at Yankee Stadium, it had a 272 ERA. He gave up eight homers in 39 and two-thirds. Three of them were in one terrible start. Otherwise, he was pretty good. but his ground ball to fly ball ratio with the Yankees. It was only 63 and 2 thirds innings. Was his career low, ground ball to fly ball ratio? So strange.

I don't know if that was an intentional thing with the Yankees or if that was just a fluke. Yeah, I mean, it's hard to figure. Remember he had that half season with the pirates where he dominated and was throwing his four seamer a lot more. and then he signs a big deal with the Blue Jays that offseason and doesn't throw his foreseamer so much anymore, even though it was so effective with the pirates. There isn't a lot of consistency with the production or the underlying profile for year to year.

I feel like he must be like a tinkerer or something, and you never really know what you're getting from J-Hap. All right, that's J-Hap. and Matt Chapman had shoulder surgery. He's expected to swing a bat in five to six weeks. It's a guy who really emerged last year and thinks that he had shoulder surgery. Anything else big guys? Justin Bored of the Angels.

Like I said, Yonder Alonzo going to the White Sox, James McCand to the White Sox, Ian Kinsler to the Padres. Anything else big here? I'm a little interested in seeing what this Ian Kinsler move does for Fernando Tatis, if it means, if it delays his arrival for the Padres, they can play. Right. There was a report that it wouldn't change his timetable. Let me see if I can find that. Yeah.

But they introduced what seemed like their second basement of the future down the stretch last year. Louis Sirius. There you go. Luis Sirius. I was looking through. all the Louises. I was, you know, moderately excited about him, but he can play shortstop.

It sounds like that might be the plan in the short term, but Tatis is even more exciting. I don't know that it's outside the Roman Pillar possibility Tatis or Kinsler himself could play third base. I think that was the report that I saw. Let me see if I can

find it. You guys can keep talking. Oh, yeah, no. Scott? Talking. Yeah, that's all I got. Okay. So that's all I care about. Let's talk about the Roto Draft. It's a lot more fun. Have all of you sat there and thought about where Ronald O'Cuna was drafted? You're not going to believe it.

We're going to tell you about it right after this quick break. All right, so our Roto draft was 12 teams. It's 23 rounds. We only drafted starting lineups. Two catchers, first, second, third, and short. Middle infield, corner infield, five outfielders, and nine pitcher spots. This is 5 by 5 with your typical category. So batting average instead of on base. And yeah, you know how it goes.

All right. So first of all, Okunia went fifth overall to donkey lips. Who we talked about in our previous draft review. He's a wild card. The mic. A friend of the pod donkey lips. It's actually donkey teeth. Donkey lips was from sleut.

Oh, donkey teeth. My bad. Donkey teeth. Are we sure that's appropriate? What? I'm not sure of anything. No, but that's his name. Raspal does, to be honest.

Well, you never, you don't know who these people actually are. They all go by pseudonyms. So anyway, we should start doing that. He took, uh, he, he, he, he, okay, Burr, what did you call yourself, Burns? Chris. Excuse me? The Ken Burns. Um, Burns head?

Burns head. That's your new name. All right. He took Acuna 5th, and he took Vladimir Guerrero with the fifth pick of the third round. Bah. I mean, it could work out. Like, I actually, I think the Vlad one might be, I don't know. I think you can defend both of them.

I don't know that you can really defend Acunia. because what are the range of, what are the, what's the range of possibility for Acuna? Can I ask this question first though?

You're passing up Max Scherzer for him. You're passing up Nolan Aronado for him. You're passing up J.D. Martinez for him. Alex Bregman, Trey Turner, Jose Altuve, Bryce Hart. Like,

okay, maybe Harper has proven to be pretty risky. But most of those guys, they're locked into first round production. I think the, the thing, the way I would view it at least is, especially in a roto league, the only guy drafted after him in the first round who might steal bases, I mean, there's three.

But in terms of like, Trey Turner's not going to hit overall the way Ronald Lucuna does. So that's a steals only guy. So it's Alex Bregman, Jose Al-Tube, are guys who can give you elite hitting production and steal some bases. Now, Altuva is coming off a down season. I think he's a great value at the end of the first round. And then Bregman, as if we're talking first round caliber player, he has, what, two more months of track record

as a first round caliber player? Like, basically, Akunia started playing like a first rounder in July, and Bregman started doing it in May. Is that the difference? He had a really good second half of 2017. Gregman was that caliber in the second half, 2017, too. Okay. Wait, before we even answer this, does Acuna make it back to Donkey Teeth in the second round?

No. According to my rankings, yes. But maybe not. I mean, I haven't drafted. But here's the thing. Are we sure Acuna is a big base dealer? He stole 16 and two-thirds of the season last year. That's...

No, we're not sure. That to me is not a reason to reach for him. He attempted basically one steal every five games. So you could see him getting to 30 steals. 30 steal attempts. 30 steals is a possibility. I would not count on more than 25 from Acuna personally. No.

And I would not pass up Nolan Aeronado. Every year contends for the triple ground. Right. Like that's, it's all downside to me at this point. Like, it's just, it could work out. Ronald Acuna could be a first round caliber player, but why take the chance he isn't when, I don't know, that's just, I don't operate that way in the early rounds.

Early rounds is not the time to reach. I just think there's more upside. Especially, this is specifically for a ROTA league. I think in head-to-head league, he wouldn't be worth that. but, you know, like steamer projections on fan graphs has him for 280 batting average, 29 homers, 25 steals, 95 runs, 81 RBI. That's probably a first round player. It's pretty good.

I don't know if it's going to be as good as there. That's not that far off from like peak McCutcheon. Well, that's the downside of projections, though. They only give you one result. And you just, are you going to trust that result? are you going to trust the rest of the range? Like where? I don't think there's any questions for most of the other players

who went directly behind him. J.D. Martinez, if you don't want Nolan Aronado. But again, where's the sophomore slump? It's about steals. It's about steals. When he came back from an injury, Ronald Acuna, his last 82 games after coming off the DL, he had a 968 OPS.

He was good in every category. He hit 21 home runs in 82 games. He stole 14 bases. If he wasn't the number one overall hitter, he was close. He was amazing. All right, so there's that. And then Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in round three. Fifth pick of round three.

Does he make it back to Donkey Teeth in round four? That one I thought was more realistic than Acuna. Maybe. But if... Look, I want to do Acuna in the first round. I could see maybe doing Guerrero in round three. But... you know,

Juan Soto went directly behind. That's, that's the one where it's like, Vladimir Guerrero could be anything. You could even be Juan Soto, right? Like, you're kind of hoping, like,

if Vladimir Guerrero has exactly the same season that Juan Soto did in 2018, it'll be a huge success. Yeah, that would be amazing because Juan Soto was one of, like, the seven best hitters in baseball last year.

Yeah, right. It's, and he's the same age. I think round four is more realistically when I'd be looking for Guerrero, but I don't, I don't, I don't mind it as much as the Acuna pick.

So, Scott, what trends did you notice in this draft, if any? So one thing I'm noticing, and it's hard to tell if it's just because it's early, you know, we're still in the middle of the off season, a lot of players haven't signed, we really don't know how the closing rolls are going to shake out still. So the ones, the relievers that we have a pretty good idea are going to be closing are going to go earlier just because, you know, do you want to guess who between Kenebill and Jeremy Jeffers is going to be closing in Milwaukee, you know? Yeah. But the thing is, I, that was, we were guessing that all of last year, too.

You know, I feel like we really started to see a change in the way managers, manage their bullpins to the point that there will be a lot of timeshare situations in the 9th inning, if not full-on committees. So I'm not sure

it is going to change that much. My guess today is that only two-thirds of the teams going into next season will be able to point to a guy and say, that's the closer for this team

going into next season with true conviction. I'm glad you mentioned that. That's a big adjustment I made in my drafting, Scott. Go on. Yeah. So if it's 20 of the 30 teams, that's less than two for sure closers for every team. So it really, it's going to put a premium on the guys that we know are closers. And I think we're seeing that.

I approached it that way. I don't know if you guys did. That was going to be my next question. Because I took one of the hardest choices I had to make was Paxton versus a role as Chapman. and I knew whatever I did, I was going to regret it. So I took Paxton, Chapman went before my next pick. That was round seven in this 12-team league. Rounds eight and nine, I took Sean Doolittle and Brad Hand.

And, you know, not only is it like there aren't that many closers that we know are the closers, but I just don't know how many good closers there are in general. And okay, so whereas in a league like this, 12 teams, five categories, nine pitcher spots, Every year I've done this, I have tried to go six starters, three closers, and I've always pretty much just wanted job security, not necessarily like the elite closers. So I would usually spend like a round 11, round 13, round 14, those maybe would be my three closers. But here going rounds eight and nine to get two closers and then not even not taking one unless I got an amazing value of the rest of the way. Because my thought process is if we were playing this out, there's so much turnover at the position. I'm always active on waivers.

I will get more save sources throughout the season. And I don't have to win the category. But I do want two guys that I can depend on, that are the guys for their teams, that are good. And I think I accomplished that with Doolittle and Brad Hand in rounds eight and nine. What did you guys do about Closer? I kind of handled it the same way. I mean, there is always going to be chances to pad your save total. in a 12 team league anyway, with pitchers off the waiver wire.

Particularly if it is a timeshare situation for a lot of these teams, that means the number of players contributing some amount of saves is higher, possibly more than will fit on every team's roster. So it's still something you can supplement pretty well off the wafer wire. But, you know, if I have, if I'm getting, if I know I can get 40 saves from one lineup spot, then that frees me up to do more with the other lineup spot. So I took Blake Trinan in round seven of this league.

Part of it's because I thought it was kind of crazy he was available in round seven. But, you know, in years past, I wouldn't have taken a Craig Kimball or oldest Chapman there. Whoever happened to be the elite closers at the time, I wouldn't have done that. I just would have rejected it outright because whatever. You know, Fernando and Rodney is going to get 30 saves for somebody, and I can get him for nothing. But I don't think you can count on that anymore. So I got Trinen in the seventh round,

and after that I took Wade Davis in round 13. And after that, he was one of the last known closers to go off the board there in round 13. I ended up getting Will Smith, who I would think is the favorite for the Giants in round 17. and then I got Jeremy Jeffers in round 20 who may or may not get half the saves for the Brewers. So I'm in really good shape with saves, I feel like going into the season. But if I didn't take Trinan in round seven,

I'd be a little concerned. Chris? How did I approach relievers? Yeah. I approached pitchers, I think, in a pretty interesting way overall. And my first two pitchers were my first two picks, and then I didn't pick a pitcher again until round 13. when I took, or actually, around 14 and 15,

I took Erotus Viscayano and Corey Canable. And I don't know if those are going to be the closers. Probably not. But I'm not going to invest in a position that has this much uncertainty. Okay. So you'll just play the waiver wire? Yeah, I mean, I'm going to target some guys. Like Drew Steckenrider I got later.

He's probably the closer in Miami. I got guys who can get over strikeouts. I got guys who can beat. pretty decent pitchers, and I hope they get saves. And if not, we'll figure it out. All right, that's closer. So then let's talk about overall strategies here and what you did in this roto draft. That's very interesting, Chris.

You went with Scherzer and Kluber with your first two picks and then didn't take another pitcher until, what, what did you say? Around what? 11? 14. 14? What was I thinking 11? You happy with that? Let's look at your pitching staff.

Scherzer Kluber Uh, wow, not Uh, Hill Heaney, Jimmy Nelson And then some relievers This guy, Ae No, Steckenrider Junjun Riu as well Canabel.

Oh, Junjun Riu. Actually, I think I got pretty talented pitchers. I don't know if they're going to be good, but Yeah, yeah, you did. I'm not, I'm not upset with this pitching staff. It, it has to be a real strength for you, though. I feel like looking at the, the lineup because

I mean what you what you did by by taking Scherzer and Clover with your first two pigs your best three hitters on a roto team are now Soto Carpenter and Sanchez which I'm got to even include Soto in there who knows what to expect for many of them

sure considering how how between 16 hitter spots how much offense you need in a roto league I don't know. I'd be uncomfortable with that.

I did not necessarily learn my lesson from last year when I had maybe the worst hitting in our Memorial Magazine Roto League, and I had great pitching, and I had a terrible team. But I think question now is what is the state of hitting versus pitching? Because when I started doing this,

like eight to ten years ago. I don't remember what it was then, but let's say five years ago. It was like, yeah, there's so many pitchers. Pick them up off waivers. You got a, you know, hitting is not as easy to find. And then like two to three years ago, it sort of switched where the hitting was very easy to find on waivers and the pitching wasn't. But then last year, did we switch back? Because that's sort of how I felt in this draft.

I think we're still in the middle of a major usage revolution for pitchers, and I don't know exactly where it's going to land, but we're seeing changes every year. A lot of it has to do with bullpen management last year, and of course there was the introduction of the opener, which threw off win potential for a lot of pitchers. and I still feel like the true aces, the 200-inning guys who also happen to have the best ratios among starting pitchers. I mean, there's such a big gap between them and everybody else that they are worth an early-round investment.

But the way power production has kind of leveled out among the entire hitting pool, the real stand-out hitters. And certainly the trustworthy, bankable ones like the Nolan Aeronados of the world, who you feel really confident aren't going to pull the rug out from under you. I think they're also worth an early round investment in. So I'm not specifically targeting hitting or pitching early. I'm probably going to take hitters with my first two picks and then just take the best of what's available after that. But what about later in the draft? You know, like what's deeper, hitting or pitching?

Because I felt like the pitching was better late in the draft. You thought pitching was deeper? Well, it's a roto league where there's a lot more hitter spots to fill than pitcher spots. So that was probably, it would make sense that that would be your filling in this, feeling in this draft. But you look back at the head-to-head points draft, we did in October, and it was just the opposite. Like, there were a lot of scrub pitchers going late, Annabal Sanchez, Clay Buckholz. we didn't even have a chance to get that far into the pitching ranks in this draft. So, Chris, I like to, I think that a good way to approach drafts is to think about what you anticipate being on waivers throughout the year, what you can get away with, you know, in terms of what's shallow, what's deep.

Do you think that hitting or pitching is noticeably shallower or deeper than the other, or, you know, or what? No, I don't think there's a big difference. I think pitching is going to always be a little more difficult to predict. And I think the predictable guys, and I think Scott made this point, I think the predictable guys at pitcher tend to be more valuable as a result because I think there are fewer of them. You know, last off season, we talked all about the big four. And two of them got hurt.

One of them was a little disappointing. So if you can get a couple of the really, really big cornerstone pitchers, I think that puts you in a really good spot. I mean, three of the big four were absolute monsters, though, at the end of the day. Right. Yeah, no, they were all. Kershaw was probably still a top ten pitcher, right? Kershaw?

Chris Sale. Oh, sale? Because he missed like a month and a half. He missed some time at the end, which I'm sure. His owners don't remember fun. but, you know, he was fourth in AL-Sai-Young voting. So of the big four, three finished

at least top four in Cy Young voting. So why on earth did you draft two pitchers with your first two picks, Chris? Because I didn't want to invest in another pitcher. I didn't want to invest, I don't want to invest in the upper middle class of pitchers. So it's either punt pitcher entirely or get one or two of the cornerstone guys

to build around. and then Target it late in the draft with upside guys who probably aren't going to stay healthy but See I kind of feel like The guys in the sixth round aren't either

I kind of feel like I'm going to do the opposite this year I mean I haven't totally landed On what I'm going to do But I want Cornerstone safe Studley standout hitters Which is why I'm saying

I'm probably going to take two With my first two picks and then I feel like beyond that there's not a lot of differentiation among hitters anymore. Like, how confident am I that, Adio Hades, Aio, how do you say, Aahio Swares? Yes. How much, how confident am I that he's that much better than Josh Donaldson? It could be, it could be completely reversed in Donaldson's,

much better. So I would rather make sure I would rather make sure I get the true standout hitters and then load up on pitchers so that I can be sure my pitching staff's good because I feel like

there's a lot of fallback hitters at basically every position but maybe second base. Everybody go through your first five picks see how we built our teams. And then we'll give our two favorite picks and our two least favorite picks from our squads.

We'll just go in order. I had the fourth pick. I took Jose Ramirez. It was Trout, Betz, Lindor. I took Jose Ramirez fourth. I took Charlie Blackman in the second round. Luis Severino, Noah Cindergarde,

and Joey Vado. Those are my first five picks, which is pretty typical for me to have three hitters and two pitchers in five picks. Jose Ramirez, Charlie Blackman, Severino, Cinderguard, and Votto. Chris was next. He had the sixth pick. What were your first five picks?

Yeah, I want Max Scherzer in the first round. Corey Kluber in the second. Juan Soto in the third. I'm actually, I'm mad. Scott kind of threw off my whole plan with his fourth round pick because I've pooed Adelberto Mondesie and I really wanted him there and Scott sniped him. So I was left really scrambling. I ended up taking Matt Carpenter in the fourth round. Don't necessarily love that. And then Gary Sanchez in the fifth. Wow. That would have been the stunter of the draft.

Yeah. I was mad. I was upset. As much shade as he's been throwing at Alberto Mondesie's way. Bondesee's going to be the most interesting player. Yeah. And I just, I think it's a math problem. And the more I look into it,

the more I realize that they're going to let him run. It may not be 65 bases like he was on pace for last year, but if it's 40, well, you've got the, that's really, it's just too, in this format,

it's just too necessary. Like, yeah, and I had to, they're too scarce, the number of players who can do that. Yep, right.

Well, I think I got one. Yeah. But he's a, a real unsure thing. And that was Malick Smith. we have basically a half season of him being really good. So, yeah, that kind of threw off.

I got sniped twice in the first five rounds at four and five in that. I would feel better about my team if I had ended up with the guys who went literally one spot ahead of the guys that I took, which were at Alberto Modese instead of Matt Carpenter in the fourth round, and Cody Ballinger instead of Gary Sanchez in the fifth. I like Sanchez in the fifth, though. I don't mind that. Why is Mondesie in this draft going two rounds ahead of D. Gordon? Well, I mean, D. Gordon stopped running last year.

He'll run. He's got getting on base. He'll run. He had like seven more walks than I did last year. I mean, Mondi see was on like a 25 homer pace last year as well. So he's kind of, I don't know. he's different from the Gordons and certainly Billy Hamilton. And D. Gordon's going to be 31.

Other guys who are not Billy Hamilton. Big steel totals in the early rounds because that's not all he does. Like he could be an all-around contributor. But D. Gordon might be a one category guy next year. He might be like the sixth best in the league at that category. All right, Scott, where were your first five picks? Nolan Aeronado, Jacob de Grom. So I actually did take a picture pitcher.

in round two in this draft. Trevor Story in round three, then Ad Alberto Mondesi in round four. Get away with taking back-to-back short stops. I'll leave with the middle end field spot. And then Scooter Jeanette in round five. Pretty interesting team. Aronado de Grom,

who is Story, Monastery, and Scooter Jeanette. Okay, so you got your steals there with Story and Mondicee. I think we all wanted to get some steals early. I was happy. I got Jose Ramirez is my first pick, and then I was the one who took D. Gordon with my sixth pick. Yeah, overall strategy for me, I had two really well-thought-out strategies. Get as many Yankees as possible.

I think I have four. Always like that. No, I have five. And get as many guys coming off bad years as possible. This appears to be another lesson that I haven't learned. But I like bounce-back players, and I'm hoping it works out for me this year. I have Blackman. Gordon,

Price, actually, my favorite pick. Posey, Miguel Cabrera, Elvis Andrews. I took them back to back in rounds 12, 13, and 14. So we'll see how that works out. Zach Godley. You are going to be so good in 2013. I know. I know.

I'm going to kill it. It's going to be unbelievable. I'm going to kill it. All right, your two favorite picks, two favorite picks on your squad and two least favorite, Scott. So I am going to go with that Alberto Mondesi as one of my favorite picks because I

kind of had the same process as Chris. When I was first doing my position by position rankings, I started putting those together in September to kind of give everybody a little foretaste of what to expect in 2019. And so I was

kind of just looking within the positions themselves and I was like, okay, Mondesi, don't have nearly as much confidence in him as Xander Bogart's or Carlos Correa. he needs to be like 10 at short stuff. But then when I start doing the combined rankings, mixing all the positions together

and really considering what actually seeing there, what other options there are for big stolen base totals, I had to move him way up. So I actually have him going in the third round. So to get him in the middle of the fourth when he's a trendy name, I think was really exciting. It had made it a lot easier because I knew I didn't have to stress about steals the rest of the draft.

My second favorite pick was also one of the ones you've already heard. Trevor Story in round three. I feel like he's a second rounder. And I know this is a kind of player that's burned me in the past when I put too much confidence in the skill indicators. But the idea behind skill indicators, the whole reason we care about things like strikeout rate, and line drive rate and all of that is because they're supposed to be more predictive than the raw stats. So just because I've gotten burned on occasions in the past doesn't mean I should totally do away with that process. And I mean, story cut way down on the strikeouts last year.

Between that and the stolen bases, you know, otherwise everything, he was the same player he always was. Those two things changed. Otherwise, he was the same guy. So unless the strikeouts were a total fluke, unless the steals were a total fluke, he should be pretty darn studly again. And I feel like taking in the second round would bake in enough caution

because he really was more like a first round player in 2018. So the fact that I got him in the third round... Your two favorite picks are guys that don't have a huge track record and are a little risky. Your two favorite picks are ones that we've already established Are going to be two of the more controversial picks In drafts, Story and Mondes I know Scott really likes his opinion

I know but the thing is they both have first round upside I mean Akuna has first round upside And somebody took them in round one Story of Mondesie I think also both have first round upside I got them in three or four I'm not gonna complain about that Chris Towers two favorite picks There's a lot of pitching up values that

I got, but I'm going to go with consecutive picks that I made in rounds nine and ten. I think these guys were really overlooked. Nelson Cruz in the ninth round and then Malick Smith in the 10th that we already mentioned, Smith. Coming off a 40, 40 steel season and you think, well, okay, he's never done that before, but his 162 game average for his career, now it's parts of three seasons, but it's 40 steals and a 277 batting average. If he just does that, that's a value in the 10th round, regardless of what else he does.

And he's probably going to be hitting at or near the top of the lineup. So even in a bad lineup, you would expect more than the 65 runs he scored last year. I think he's a good player. I think he's a good hitter. I've been waiting for this kind of breakout from him. Even if he doesn't hit near 300, even if he comes back to being like a 275, 280 hitter, I think he's a great value in the 10th round. Okay, who were your two?

Nelson Cruz also in the ninth round. Maybe we saw the start of him slipping last year. He was 38 for most of the year. He was 38 for about half this year. Still hit 37 homers, though. Still walked a decent amount. Had to his lowest strikeout rate since 2014. He only hit 256,

but really it was just his batting average, or his batting average on balls in play was lower than we've come to expect. His infield fly ball rate was up a little. bit, but that doesn't explain most of this. I think the skills are still pretty intact. Yes, he's a DH only player, but in the 10th round,

or the ninth round, you've baked in more than enough of the negatives for him. Like, he went right after Hazers Aguilar, who had a really good half season last year. Nelson Cruz has been doing that for half a decade, maybe longer. Yeah, yeah. All right, Nelson Cruz.

And my two favorite picks, D. Gordon in round six, I guess I have faith in him than you guys do. And David Price in round 11. I had said on a previous podcast that I was not going to take David Price. I thought he would be like a round eight pick or something like that. But he may have found something last year. He pitched brilliantly down the stretch.

He was great in the playoffs. Round 11 for David Price. I think he has tremendous upside. Not a lot of risk at that point. Yeah, I was happy about that. My two least favorite picks were my first baseman, Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera. I don't know. My least favorite, I thought my picks were like kind of safe.

So I don't know that I have obvious least favorite picks. I have an okay team. And just like you, Chris, there were a few picks that went right before me. That would have made me feel much better about my team. But it might depend on Votto in round five and Miguel Cabrera in round 13. I need some thump from those guys and they might just be done. So I didn't feel good about either of them. Votto in round five and Cabrera in round 13, I will nominate as my least favorite.

Chris, who are you two of these favorite picks? Probably Matt Carpenter in round four. That was a panic pick, to be honest. I think he's great. But if he's not 2018 great, if he's just pretty good, somewhere between 2018 and 2017, it's going to be really hard for me to get value on that pick. And he's at a point where he could decline.

So, you know, 33 years old just turned at 23 days. ago. Congratulations. Happy birthday, Matt Carpenter. And my other least favorite pick, it's not a high pick, but Raphael Devers in the 12th round. Another one where I don't necessarily love.

I love that pick. I loved it. I don't love what he's shown in the majors. I think he was riskier than the price point led on in 2018. I don't love it. They were probably sure.

things and with the makeup of my offense, I probably needed a couple more sure things, but you know, it's an upside play for sure. Scott White, who'd you screw up on two bad picks, two least favorite picks? Oh, I had a couple screw-ups at him. I am just a royal screw-up all the way around. Okay, so my screw-ups here, my least favorite pick. It was round 16, and so you could make the argument, how bad could you really go at round 16? What a humble brag. What a stunt from our guy, Scott White. My least favorite pick was my 16th round pick.

Oh, it's a terrible pick. Yeah, it's a bad pick. Yeah, it's a really bad pick. There you go. Markakis. I'm looking at the names to see who I could have gotten instead. Fraudmille Reyes went a whole round later, so I had another shot at him after Markakis.

and that that i think would have been a more exciting pick i mean the the big thing is he he turned back into nick markakis yeah not at all exciting nick markagas in the second half we don't even know where he's going to be playing if he's going to have an everyday job he might not be like he that might be a reach at 20 you know i decided i needed more batting average and it that's a hard category to fill late. And, you know, the few seconds I had to make the pick, I, I panicked. Okay. So Nick Marcakegis is my least favorite.

And another one I didn't really like very much. I mean, I really liked my draft. So I, you know, I hated the head-to-head one we did in October. I think a scooter, Jeanette, and round five. I don't think it's bad. I mean, he's one of the few standouts at second base. And obviously he helps keep me from needing. late round batting average help.

But I think J.D.T. Real Mutu going a few picks later was a little bit better. The scarcity at catcher, I mean, there is in a position that really compares to catcher in terms of scarcity, even though second base is pretty scarce itself. And, you know, I had a shot at other decent second baseman like Ozzy Al-B's. Not the case at catcher. You want an alarming stat for ScrooJet? Please. He had a 775 OPS in the second half last season with a 3.39 bad-up.

I think he was playing her. He had a weird year. There was a lot of ups and downs in his season. Didn't he have an injury though? He did have some kind of shoulder situation going on, but it was hard to pinpoint exactly when it started or what exactly it was. And yeah, I'm going to take the full season line on faith.

especially since he was, you know, awesome in 2017, too. Fellas, you have yourselves a wonderful holiday, a great new year. Everybody will be back. I won't be. I'll be on paternity leave, but the other guys will be back going into next year in January. So enjoy that. And, yeah, thanks so much for listening here in 2018. It's been an awesome year of fantasy baseball.

We're going to do it again in 2019. Adios, everybody. Happy holiday.