Fantasy Baseball Today - 15 Bounce Back Candidates Including Marcus Semien & Bo Bichette! (12/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 5, 2024

Let's start with the Braves and Matt Olson (3:40). ... Austin Riley feels like a lock to bounce back (8:40). ... What about Ozzie Albies (11:59)? ... Marcus Semien should get back on track but he's getting older (19:34). ... Luis Robert is a difficult case (25:10). ... What to expect from Kevin Gausman (31:17)? ... Can Bo Bichette bounce back in a contract year (35:26)? ... News (42:12): Aroldis Chapman signed with the Red Sox. ... What is this Golden At Bat (48:50)? ... Let's do some rapid-fire bounce-back candidates including Zac Gallen, Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena (52:45). ... What about Adley Rutschman, Royce Lewis and Cody Bellinger (57:45)? ... Lastly, Nolan Jones and Josh Lowe (1:01:45).  Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Matt Olson, Marcus Simeon, Zach Gallen. What do they all have in common?

They were bad in 2024. Well, actually, they kind of let us down. They weren't completely bad, but they let us down based on where they were drafted. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, December 5th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. We finished up all our position of recap. So today on the show, we are evaluating 15 bounce back candidates. We got some news.

Our oldest Chapman signed with the Red Sox and the talk of the baseball world. Not Juan Soto, the golden at bat. Do you love it? Do you hate it? We'll talk about it. Anyway, let's start with the basketball. bounce back candidate. So I looked at players being drafted in the top five rounds last year, top 60 picks in ADP, who had down seasons, and as a result, they are being drafted later,

entry 25, and in some cases, much later than they were being drafted last year. I didn't include guys like Julio Rodriguez and Corbyn Carroll because they're still borderline first round picks. I think in general, we expect those guys to bounce back. And let's add a wrinkle here. The bounce back o' meter. One means this player virtually has no chance of bouncing back and 10 means you are completely confident they will bounce back in 2025. Are you ready? Yes.

Yeah, I'm ready. All right. I had to get ready for a second, but I think I'm there. All right, Scott. Well, you better be ready because we are starting with your Atlanta Braves, a trio. We can honestly talk about almost the entire Braves lineup. Lots of letdowns in 2020.

but the trio of Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ozzy Albee. So Matt Olson's ADP last season was 15 early second round pick, you know, borderline first second round pick. His early ADP for 2025 is 34. So it's not a huge fall, but when a player drops two rounds that early in the draft, it matters, obviously from one year to the next. So Olson has kind of had this like reverse Aranola thing going on. He had this weird, odd, even year thing.

He has monster seasons in odd years. He lets us down in even years. I don't think that there's anything actually to that, but it does happen. He went from being the number two player in fantasy in 2023, all the way down to 65th this past season. So I think that's the floor versus the ceiling. Scott, we will start with you.

What are the chances of Matt Olson bouncing back 1 to 10? I would put the chances of him bouncing. bouncing back at, let's say seven. It's kind of hard before we've calibrated this meter to know exactly what the numbers mean. But seven sounds about right between seven and eight. Let's say seven point five for Matt Olson. I mean, the thing to keep in mind. And I just did this exercise for the newsletter tomorrow with some pictures.

And the numbers don't mean anything. Well, you know, they should mean something relative to each other, right? Personally, I think the chances of Matt Olson bouncing back to being the number two player in fantasy are basically zero. Like I would say that to one. Okay. Bouncing back to what he was in like the problem is 2024 wasn't that different from 2022. Are we going to get the good medals or bad Maddles? Is like this how I was approaching this.

The 30 homer 250 hitting version or the 35 to 40 homer. 270 hitting version. I think that like I'm with you on a seven on the latter, but, you know, he is 31 or will be 31. I don't know when his birthday is. It's in March right after opening day, two days after opening day, I believe. He got a little bit worse at basically everything in 2024. Didn't hit the ball quite as hard, struck out a little bit more, walked actually a significant amount less that we care less about that. But it is to say that unlike Michael Harris and Austin Riley and I don't know about Ozzy Albies actually I haven't looked

that as deep into that one yet but like Austin Riley and Michael Harris their quality of contact numbers their underlying stuff looks almost identical to 2023 there was very little difference in the skill set for those two guys so I'm very confident

that Austin Riley and Michael Harris are going to bounce back I'm buying those Matt Olson it's always been a volatile skill set. There's always been a lot of swing and miss. There's been a, you know, a little bit of fluctuation in the quality of contact from one year to the next. And so it's always been the case that you just don't know from Matt Olson that makes it harder to be confident in the bounce back. But I'm pretty confident that Matt Olson's going to be very, very good. Just yeah. Well, I think the most

encouraging thing, the main thing to cling to here with Matt Olson is just that we've seen this from him before more than once, in fact, where we think he's an out and out stud. And then he follows it up with a year where he just seems kind of lost all year, but then comes on strong late and manages to salvage his numbers, make them at least respectable as he did this past year. Final 47 games, Matt Olson hit 295 with a 960. 4 OPS. That's not that much. It's from 2020 for 3.

Much lower strikeout rate, which usually accompanies metals and stretches. So I think he just gets, I think he's just a really, a fussy kind of hitter that it doesn't take much to make him spiral. But like the tools are there for him to be a top five power hitter in the game. And I don't see any reason to believe that skill is diminished. And so it's just, is he going to have another one of those years where he's kind of struggling to get right? Or is he going to find that earlier this year, maybe even from the get-go?

And that's impossible to predict. But there is 50 homer upside. And the good thing is the downside is like 30 homers. Yeah. And so I think it's a good time to invest in him. not that people have totally abandoned ship and his draft stock is at an all-time lower or anything like that,

but it's certainly lower than last year and hard for him not to live up to it. What about Austin Riley? Chris, you already shared your thoughts. You sound confident in this bounce back. The ADP last year was 19. It's dropped down to 31, so not a huge drop, but we're into the middle of the third round.

You got off to a really slow start, but from June on, he hit 275 with 16 home runs an 870 OPS. Quality of contacts still looked amazing. His season unfortunately ended with a fracture right hand in August, but he's in the prime of his career. 2021 through 2023. We're basically identical years.

Chris, what's the number for you? Is it a 10 that Austin Riley just gets back to that level? I don't think I'm going to give out any tens. That's hard. That means I'm 100% confident. I'm not 100% confident in anything. If there was a player, on the fantasy football podcast.

Doesn't he only give out tens and ones? Isn't that all he does? Yeah. So you're going to the other extreme. I'm going to be a little more nuanced than that. But it's a nine. You know, like 2021, he had a 366 X Woba. 2022, he had a 378 X Woba.

2023, he had a 365 X Woba. 2024, he has 361. It's basically like my read on Austin Riley is he had a bad April, nothing really concerning about it. He was just bad. And he had that oblique injury in May. Remember, he never went on the IL,

but he missed like two weeks as a result of it. Then he came back, kind of scuffled again for a couple of weeks. On June 14th, I believe it was. He homered for the first, in the first of what was three consecutive games with a homer. and from that point on, he was on a 45 homer pace with a 292 batting average until he fractured his hand. I see absolutely nothing to be concerned about with Austin Riley.

Scott, I don't want to speak for you, but I imagine you are right there with me. Yeah, my read on Austin Riley, it's a similar one to Julio Rodriguez, actually, where we're used to seeing the slow starts from him and then he catches fire midseason. and the numbers end up MVP caliber or close to it. And I think sort of like with Julio Rodriguez last year, he happened to suffer this injury during that point in the year when he's normally making up all the ground. And so the final numbers aren't where we're used to seeing him.

But I think Austin Riley is fundamentally the same player we've been taking in round two the past couple years. and if he goes much later than that, I think you should attack. In a vacuum, who would you guys rather draft in the third round, Austin Riley or Matt Olson? Riley. Riley, because I'm going 10 for Riley.

I'm going to go 10 for Riley versus 7.5 for Olson. I'm with you, Scott. I think of 10. I have complete confidence that Austin Riley is just going to go back to being himself. I'm just leaving a little room for uncertainty. Ah, come on, Chris. Come on.

That's not. I'm not trying to be fun, you know? Okay. I respect that. Fun is overrated. Exactly what we want to say on a podcast. Come on, guys. Ozzy Albies, let's talk about him.

His ADP last year was 23. It dropped down to 52 so far heading into next season. And Albies feels like another player where you draft him coming off these injury riddled down seasons and you profit. We've seen this before. He had an injury marred 2022. Awesome 2023. I don't think he gets all the way back to that 20-23 level because that was truly a special year.

But, you know, he missed time this past season with a fractured right toe, a fractured left wrist. Kind of just feels like fluky stuff for him. He'll be 28 years old in January. It's the prime of his career. Scott, what do you think the chances of Ozzy Albi's bouncing back not to 20-23 levels, but let's say, you know, 270 hitter, 25 home runs, 15 steals.

That, you know, that kind of median projection, something we expect out of Ozzy Albies. Yeah, I think that's probably what you should expect. He's 27 years old, apart from those two years where broken bones got the better of him. He's basically always delivered on that. The one little bit of hesitation, and I hesitate to say it even, because I don't want to discourage people from drafting Ozzy Albies where he's, you know, they're likely to get him,

is that those two years where he had a couple broken bones and this significant time and the numbers were down were also the two years where the ball wasn't carrying as well. There's always been a lot of blue on that stat cast page and you wonder is Ozzy Albiz more vulnerable. He sells out pretty hard for home runs with his approach, especially from the left side. And would a debtor ball if we get that this year,

and he stays healthy, would it lead to a very disappointing season? So that's the only hesitation with Ozzy Albies. That's the only reason why I'm going to go with just an eight here. But I think given the consistency of his career, the fact he's still in the prime of his career, the fact that his injuries were of a fluky nature, the fact that second base is so weak. Yeah.

I'm just going to ignore those two points left on the table, and I'm very high on drafting Ozzy Albies this year. I will probably go more like a six. I'm debating still whether I want him to be my number four, second baseman, or my number five. Because the one thing I will say is among the top five at second base. And I'm debating him versus Marcus Simeon, who we're going to talk about a little later. The one thing is I feel like Ozzy Albies has the most fragile skill set of that group.

Mookie bats, Cotel Marte, Jose Al-Tuv, Marcus Simeon, Ozzy Albies are that top five. And it's because of what Scott said. There have been, Ozzy Albies in his, he's been in the majors for eight years, but he's played seven seasons from start to finish, not counting injuries. two of those seasons have seen a home run to fly ball ratio below 12% league wide. And those are the two bad years for Ozzy Albiz. And it might just be that he is a little more, that the margin for error here is very, very slim.

And in a debtor ball era or a debtor ball season, he might just be a little more prone to disappointing. And that's also true of Marcus Simeon, right? His only two bad seasons in the past five were also 2022 and 2024. And it's a very similar skill set. The difference is Altuve has the not very high quality contact thing going for him too. So he's just managed to make it work. Yeah.

Are all like that. Altuvae obviously has the park that is like perfectly suited for his approach. But anyway, go ahead. But I think the bigger difference. is and maybe I don't know I feel like Semion one has just shown a higher floor

for the homers you know he's hit 26 and 23 in the two bad years and it's just because of where he hits in the lineup because he just never misses a game like he's missed four games in the past five years

something like that yeah four in the last four years it does feel like there are fewer ways for things to go wrong for Semyon than Albi's, but that's also one of them's 34, one of them's 28. So I don't know how true that actually is. That's the bigger variable for me. I get what you're saying, where it's assuming they're,

if we're presuming no age related decline, there's probably a higher floor for Simeon than all these slightly. But there's seven years difference here. Yeah. Yeah. I'd, I'd want to protect against the age-related. decline. I'm betting on the Albies bounce back, but where that actually lands and whether I'm actually likely to draft him, I've kind of not been like an Albi's drafter over the years anyway.

So that might just be continuing. What's that? You missed out on a lot of numbers. Yeah, in the good years for sure. Yeah. All right. We are going to talk about Marcus Semi and a little bit more in just a bit, but we got to take our first break before we do that. Chris mentioned he wrote about this in his newsletter. Make sure to sign up for said newsletter at cbsports.com slash newsletters or scan the QR code if you're watching on YouTube and you can sign up for free. Let's take our first break. When we return, we talk about Marcus Semyon right after this.

So Marcus Semyon's ADP last year was 29. It's all the way down to 90. There's almost a 40-pick difference between where Semen and Albi's are being drafted right now. obviously the batting average OPS were both really bad. His lowest since 2020. The stolen bases continue to drop for Marcus Semyon, but you look under

the hood, there's not really that much that's different. You guys kind of broke it down. You mentioned the age here. Chris will start with you. Where are you at on the bounce back O meter specifically for Marcus Semyon? Well, as I said, I'm waffling on Semyon versus

Albies, which means I'm either way lower on Albi's than the consensus or way higher on simian than the consensus and i'm way higher on simian than the consensus he's in that 55-ish range along with all these i don't know man if like your disaster everything went wrong oh no things are falling apart season still ends with 101 runs 23 homers 74 rbi and 14 or eight stolen bases like that's pretty awesome i know the batting average was bad and look maybe the batting average might be a liability moving forward i think that's perfectly reasonable, but there wasn't much reason to think that there was a huge skills-based

decline for Marcus Simeon. I tend to think, yeah, I'm going to go with like a seven. I'm a little more confident that he bounces not all the way back because when Marcus Simeon is right, he's a he's been a top five player in fantasy. I don't think he gets back to that, but bouncing back to 2023 in like with the Braves a Rangers lineup that I do expect to be much better in 2025 than it was in 2024 I'm I'm pretty confident and I'm going to end up drafting Marcus Simian a lot this year I think so I'm also going seven but since our meters are maybe calibrated a little differently here I'll point out that seven is the lowest score I've handed out so far is it there are what it's not just the age the age the age is

part of it, 34 again, Marcus Simeon. But he struck out just as infrequently. He hit the ball just as hard. There wasn't, beyond just the top line performance, there wasn't a lot of signs of age-related decline there. Sometimes those signs aren't so visible. But since they aren't visible, it's not like I feel confident. Simeon's just gotten old.

But here's the thing. Stolen bases. Yeah. Last three years, 25, 14, 8. So you mentioned Marcus Simeon might just be a liability in batting average now, hit 237 this year, has hit below 253 of the past five years. I think it's fair to say he probably is a liability in batting average,

certainly for the range he's going to be drafted. If he's a liability in stolen bases also, and you know, you get a lot of stolen bases at second base. going to give you single digits, you know, probably more like a 25 homer guy than 30 homer guy. It's going to score a lot of runs. So, like, I'm not saying, like, I have Marcus Simmy as a top five first basement. Sorry, second basement. Top five second basement.

Like, I do think if I don't get all bees, I'm happy to take Simi and fill that weak position with the guy who I'm giving a seven on the bounce backometer or whatever we're calling it. but I don't know that the ceiling anymore is where you want it to be for a top five player. If he's not, if he's, if he's not going to be a help in steals and not going to be a help in batting average, in fact, going to be a hindrance in both. I don't know that there's enough else there to say, okay, he's top five by default at second base, but is he really top five? Is that, is that a Bruce Bochie thing? I was just going to say, like, I will point out it.

It's not. It's not for a lack of athleticism. He's still 81st percentile on sprint speed, which is like right in line with where he's been each of the like handful, past handful of years. So it kind of feels like a bocchi thing. And I don't know, maybe it was just by design.

It kind of worked out that way. I don't think he bounces all the way back to like 20 steals, but I still think he could give you like 15. Well, butchie's still there, right? Yeah. Yeah. No, that's why I'm at. He,

Mark Simian still writes out as an elite defensive second baseman, one of the best in baseball, would probably be the best if Andres Jimenez wasn't there. Still just as athletic by the measures that we typically look at, sprint speed, stuff like that. The bat doesn't seem to have slowed down much. So it just, he could steal 20 bases again if they want him to. I just don't know if they want him to.

Well, I don't know if he wants to either. is the thing. Like, stealing bases hurts. I remember Whitmerfield talking about this in the second half. It was a disappointing year for him stolen base-wise,

and he just stopped running in the second half, and he said, Yeah, I just didn't feel like it. We were out of it. Why put myself through that kind of thing? Like, it's, it's stolen base,

stealing base is a young man's game. I'm not saying older guys can't steal bases, but I think they think about it a lot more. They hesitate more with it. Let's talk about Luis Robert And this is a tougher one His ADP last year was 32

It's all the way down to 84 Kind of up in the air Because he could be traded And if that happens It's very likely to a better team Than the White Sox And as a result The ADP will climb quite a bit

But as things stand right now Obviously Robert took a huge step back The batting average fell The OPS went from 857 Drop 200 points All the way down to 657 He's had trouble staying on the field.

I don't really know what he bounces back to, like his career. He's kind of succeeded in different ways. He stole a bunch of bases this past season. So I don't really know what he bounces back too. So Scott, I will throw it your way. One to 10 on the bounce back home meter, Luis Robert. Oh, boy. Oh, boy.

This is Chris's guy. I feel bad taking it. I'm going to go six. I'm going to go six. I might, I probably would bump it up if he's traded. but it's just such a dreadful situation with the white socks. They're probably going to trade away their best play. If Louise Robert isn't traded,

Garrett Crochet almost certainly is. And so it's only going to get worse. It's not like they have this great backlog of talent and the miners ready to liven things up. Louise Robert is just running out the clock there. And obviously he missed a lot of time with injuries. He tends to miss a lot of time with injuries. But even when he was healthy,

he just wasn't ever that impactful for fantasy. And I don't think the skills have diminished, so I'm not sure what to make of it. Was it just that, okay, he wasn't feeling right for a long stretch of the season, never got enough time to get going, didn't get those reps? Maybe, but again, you can't count on him

to get an abundance of playing time any year. and then even if he does, the run-in-R-B-I production is going to be so lacking because that team is clearly losing 100-plus games again. And I just, I have Louise Robert 22nd among outfielders for next year,

which is kind of the last before you get into the Brian Reynolds, Spencer Steer types, that are clearly not top-tier players. So I'm given Louise Robert that chance of bouncing back, which is why he went six. But I'm pretty confident somebody's going to outbid me for him

because I'm pretty sure Chris, for instance, is higher than a six. I'm growing a little more cautious about my Luis Robert ranking. Like now that I'm starting to finalize things, he's more like 19 in outfield, so we're not as far apart. He's a top 70 player for me overall. So I'm higher than his current. ADP and I'm mostly operating under the assumption that he gets moved. There has been some reporting that suggests that the White Sox are, I think, rightly viewing

him as the kind of player that you need to be bowled over to move. That's why opposing teams are apparently not offering them that kind of thing. I feel like there's that impasse, yeah, which is why, because he's signed through this year and then he has team options for 26 and 2020. Very, we're like 18 million or something. Very reasonable. So there isn't the same urgency to move him as crochet, especially coming off a down year where his stock is low.

That's why I'm ranking him as if he won't get traded. He could, but I'm right now operating as if you won't. And look, the other thing to keep in mind is like, he stayed healthy in 2023. Kind of. It's kind of like Tyler Glass now last year where like,

oh, he got to a career. high innings, but it's like he suffered a significant injury. It just so happens that the injury happened at the end of the year. Luis Robert, it was a sprained MCL, I think, in, in 20203, but it happened in September. So he still got to 145 games. He stayed healthy until then. If that happens in May, he probably plays 100 games again in 2023. So it, there's a lot that can go wrong for Luis Robert. There's a lot that can really, really go right. And I think he does have. if he went 3535 this year. Oh, yeah.

I wouldn't be surprised. He has that kind of upside. And we were drafting him as if he had that kind of upside not long ago. Here's another point to bring up that that kind of bolsters my point about him just not being as into it. Yeah. Strikeout rate over the last four years, his first extended year, 2021. 20.6 strikeout rate. Big improvement from his rookie season.

Following year, 19.2. 2023, 28.9. Big jump. And then last year, 33.2. Which is kind of untenable. And to me, suggest, yeah, he's frustrated. You know, and I hate, like, armchair psychology stuff with sports. Because, like, we don't know these guys.

I don't want to assume anything. But, like, his zone swing rate went from 78% in 20% 23 to 73% last year. His chase rate went from 41% to 36%. He also just stopped swinging, even though he wasn't getting pitched down. This wasn't a situation where he was the only player in the lineup and they just stopped throwing him strikes.

His rate of pitches in the zone was basically identical, it was within a point. So I kind of buy the, frankly, reasonable view that Luis Robert was too good to be there last year. And he wasn't particularly motivated. And I'm hoping that he gets traded. I will be a seven if he gets traded. I will be a six if he doesn't.

So I'm with you, Scott, on that. All right. Let's talk about two Blue Jays here. Kevin Gosman and Bobauchet. So Gosman's ADP last year was 37. And it's all the way down to 151. Boba Chet was 38. And now it's all the way down to 144.

So huge drops for both of these guys. Kevin Gosman, he had that. shoulder injury in the spring right before the season started. Maybe that affected him more than we thought. You know, the velocity dropped off a little bit. The strikeouts went way down for Kevin Gosman. And then Boba Shed just dealt with, you know, two bad calf strains. He had neck spasms. He had a bruised forearm, a fractured finger towards the end of the season. So it's like, what could go wrong did go wrong for Boba Shet this past season. He's also turning 27 in March. he's entering a contract year.

So, you know, could be some extra motivation there. I'll split these two up. Who wants Gosman? Can I get Goshen? You could have Gosman. I wanted Bashman. So that works out perfectly.

Chris, one to ten on Kevin Gosman. So I'm writing about him for tomorrow's newsletter. I'm doing it slightly differently. I'm doing a chances of a comeback with a percentage because, you know, that's way different.

It's very scientific. And I will, use the same scale how I'll convert it to a bounce back o meter 1.5. I am extremely out on Kevin Gosman. He is my 211th ranked player in my overall rankings right now. And I would guess that's like outside the top 70 pitcher or starting. 191 for me. I so the biggest thing and look, maybe I think he, this is one of those ones where it's like, how can you say he wasn't healthy when his velocity wasn't down that much and he made 31 starts? And it's like, you can be healthy enough to pitch and not healthy.

And I think that's probably where Kevin Gosman was last year. Like you see it in his arm slot. It dropped a little bit. That's something you see a lot when pitchers aren't 100% healthy. And that might be something where he has to compensate by lowering his arm slot. maintain the arm speed, but what happened to Kevin Gosman last year is the shape of his pitches and his command was just not nearly the same.

Even though his walk rate wasn't up, he threw way more of his fastballs, middle, middle, and low. And his splitter did not have the same depth to it. He was getting about two inches less of vertical break on his splitter. And that's the ball game for Kevin Gosman. It always has been. to pitch north-south to be effective. He needs to put the fastball high. He needs to make the

splitter look like the fastball until it drops off the bottom of the table. And you see it in the whiff rate. It went from 43.2% to 33.5% last year. It was still an effective pitch overall. But if you're not generating chases, if you're not generating whiffs with a splitter, especially, this is the thing that's really tough about splitters. It's really hard to throw it for strikes. Most pitchers can't. And Kevin Gosman didn't really ever throw the splitter for strikes. He throws it out of the zone and guys think it's the fastball and they swing over it. And it's a really effective pitch for him. But when he's lowering the arm slot, the pitch doesn't move the same. It doesn't have the same depth. Maybe he gets it back. I don't want to bet on a 34 year old bouncing back that way.

Not when there are this many pitchers that I feel good about. I don't know. I could see it happening, you go from a 31% strikeout rate to a 21% strike rate going from elite to legitimately below average as a 33 year old the number of guys who get that back is pretty slim off the top of my head just of verlander i can't think of too many others who have done that so i i think age i think skill everything points to decline for for kevin gossman scott bobichette on the bounceback o meter. Yeah, first, just real quick, I want to say, I more or less agree with Chris.

I think there's a chance that the injury early on screwed up Kevin Gosman and he had to compensate and maybe he can get back the former arm angle. But a pitcher in his mid-30s when he shows that kind of swing and miss decline, I'm probably going to bet against him. As for Bo Bichette, It's funny, the last couple years I've been the downer on Bichette.

I've been trying to steer people away from him, and he tended to be still a top three, four round pick, at least in Roto leagues. This year, it looks like everybody's out on him. His early ADP on NFBC is 144. I'm at 72, so I'm twice as high on Bichette as the consulate. census. Like 72 is a big downgrade from where we're used to seeing him drafted. So I thought I was in the clear. But it's it seems like people are just decided he's done. And I don't I don't really see that. Obviously he had a terrible year. But when I dig into the skill indicators, I don't see a lot of reason for pessimism there.

He did have ongoing CAFinge issues this year that I suspect. had, uh, are, are partly owed to his bad production. He has kind of tended the past couple years to be more and more opposite field minded, which I think has compromised his power.

That's some of the argument I had been making against him the past couple years. He also doesn't run as much. So I don't know that he's going to bounce back as this power speed threat. But I think there's a good chance the batting average bounces back. He'd always been a reliable 290, 300, type of hitter and i think it could absolutely still be that and if he stays healthy and he's doing that he probably gets back to 20 homers at least and is a must-star shortstop again so you want a hot take prime of his career a guy who had been so reliable until last year i'm going to bet on a bounce back with

like uh uh an eight but yes your hot take chris win eight all right chris nine yes lobesheco twice here wow that's going to be one of my bold predictions So contract year, the athleticism has slid, slid for sure. I don't think there's any question about that. But that's one of the things you see in contract years. We saw with Willie Adamas this year. I think we're going to see a much more aggressive Boba Shed on the base paths. I think he's going to get back to hitting 290.

I have him right in the same range of Scott. I think I might just have to move him down. just so I draft other short stops. Like if I rank him 74th where I have him currently, that might just be too much Boba Chet on my teams. Yeah, I understand. I feel quite confident that we're going to see a much better version of Bobachette. I also kind of feel like early ADP,

this is one of the downsides to early ADP. One is that it's all coming from one source. And so the peculiarities of that. format or weighing heavily on it. But the other thing is there, there's a lot of copycat right now. It's just Bobauchette keeps going 144th, thereabouts, because that's where he keeps going.

But then when you get a lot more voices chiming in, I don't think the people actually drafting Boba Chet 144th believe he's the 144th best player. So I do think he's going to come closer to where we haven't ranked, Chris. Maybe not all the way. There was someone I was looking at. Oh, Bobby Miller, who I guess we're not talking about here, but I did write about my bouncebacks. And is he on the list?

No, I only included players who were drafted inside the top 60s. He wasn't quite there. He's like 404 in this very early ADP. And like you said, the peculiarities of the format, most of the drafts that are happening right now are these like draft and holds or gladiators, like these drafts where. that's your team for the whole season. Like I drafted one. I think Frank you've done one where you just draft 23 players. And that's the team you have the whole season.

And so in that league, yeah, I don't know if I want to take Bobby Miller. I don't know if I want Boba Shet to be my shortstop there. But in a league, in a 12 team league where you have more flexibility and you have a more robust waiver wire or a waiver wire at all, I think Boba Shett is a very strong bounceback candidate. So you heard it here first. Draft Boba Shett in 2025. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll hit some news and notes and the rest of our bounce back candidates

right after this. Welcome back in, some quick news and notes. The Red Sox signed a roll to Chapman to a one-year $10.75 million deal on Tuesday. Chapman will be 37 years old on opening day. The ratios took a hit last season, but he still striated. strikes out as many as any reliever out there. 98 strikeouts were 7th among relievers. And I will ask you guys an impossible question here on December 5th.

Who will lead the Red Sox in saves next season? I will take a Roldas Chapman. If I have to name one person, I will take the field if I'm allowed to do that. Am I not allowed to do that? A Roldus Chapman. Well, I wasn't going to take quite the field, but I was going to say somebody who's not there yet. if yeah among their options now Chapman would be my choice to close

but I think there's a reason why the last two years the team he's been on didn't really want him to close and you know he walks a lot of guys still misses a lot of bats but not as overpowering he's used to be and I think there's a good chance they bring in a Kirby Yates or bring back Kenley Janssen or something like that and it

if it is Jansen it may be more of a mix and match kind of thing but it's possible Chapman's the closer because right now he appears to be the best suited for the role. And for the record, I did look at Leon Hendricks rehab assignment, stack has data. He was averaging like 91, 92 with his fastball. So like if he comes out in spring training, it looks great. I could see him taking back that role. But I think right now you have to bet on Chapman.

Yeah. The only other name I would have mentioned was Justin Slayton, who doesn't have closer experience, but just had a really good season in the Red Sox bullpen this past year. The Red Sox also have other lefties in their bullpen, so they don't just need Chapman to be that lefty specialist. That's something that also helps his case for getting saves next season. Korean infielder Ha-sung Kim, no relation to Ha-Sung Kim, was posted for MLB teams on Wednesday.

He'll be 26 years old in January. He's a career 304 hitter in the KBO coming off the season with 11 homers, 90 runs scored, 30 steals, and 841 OPS. For context, you know, the, the, previous two hitters to come over from Korea, Zhang Hu Li, Hassan Kim, they put up much better numbers in the KBO. So I don't want to say that

like Heisenkim can't be a great player, but I think the chances are he might just give a little bit of batting average and some speed. Hassan Kim had a 199 isolated slugging percentage in his time in the KBO. Heisung Kim had a 99. That's less than half. Yeah.

And Hassan Kim has become a 136. six iso guy at the major league level. So yeah, I think I don't want to say best case scenario, but like the non-2020 version of Andres Jimenez is kind of what I'm hoping for where like could still 30 basis as an everyday player. He's very good defender by all accounts, very fast. I was going to ask because. Yeah, he's one of a couple of gold gloves out there.

If he wasn't, I'm not sure he'd even be in line to start for a major league team, this high on Kim. Yeah. His son Kim. It's going to be fun to make that distinction throughout the year. But like what Andreas Jimenez did last year, 252, nine homers, 30 stolen bases,

that feels like a reasonable expectation if Kim is an everyday player. I think even less power. Like you said, I mean, he had 11 home runs in the KBO. Like maybe it could be like five to seven home runs, but we'll see.

Yeah, like based on what I've heard about, his fielding, like, he probably will get a chance to start somewhere. So there is, I think they've had a similar, uh, dead ball. No, no. Offense is still okay in the KBO. 772 league OPS last year. So yeah, I was wondering if maybe there were some adjustments to be made there, but now it, yeah, I, I, I, expectation shouldn't be super high, I would say.

Again, the name there is high sunk Kim. And I think for deeper leagues, ALN only, depending on where he winds up. We shall see. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said Jordan Romano is expected to be fully healthy entering next season. He added that it was a mutual decision for both sides to allow Romano to explore the open market. And apparently the Blue Jays are still heavily pursuing a reunion with Romano.

Dodgers reliever Evan Phillips is feeling, quote, fine and should be ready for spring training after he dealt with arm fatigue in the NLCS. The Dodgers bullpen feels pretty open for saves right now. There's obviously Michael Kopeck. I still think there's a pretty good chance they either bring back Blake Trinan or bring in another veteran to kind of muddy the waters there.

Dalton Varsho might not be ready for opening day following right shoulder surgery that he had in September. Trevor Rogers has been training at driveline baseball this off season in hopes of regaining some velocity. This past season he averaged 91.9 on the fastball.

Back in 2021 and 2022 when he was at his peak, it was 94.5. So this will be an aim to watch in spring training. He has a long way to get back to where he was before. But if he comes out firing 95 miles per hour, there will be some sleeper appeal there with a Trevor Rogers. So just keep that in mind. Rangers GM Ross Fencer Maker, that is a great name,

confirmed that Kyle Higashioca and Jonah Heim will split catcher duties in 2025. The stove feels like it's starting to heat up as we inch closer to the winter meetings, which start up this Sunday. specifically the Juan Soto talks they're also starting to heat up offers have now exceeded $600 million and ESPN's Alden Gonzalez reported Soto could sign by the end of this week

so stay tuned. We'll have an emergency podcast whenever that happens. And per John Morosi, the Cubs and Reds are among the viable candidates to acquire Garrett Crochet this off season. I don't know that the Reds would be the best landing spot for Garrettoch but I think the Cubs would be pretty good. And the Padres, apparently are a strong contender to sign Roki Sasaki,

which we all just kind of assumed it was the Dodgers, but obviously the Padres, they have some ties, they have Udarvish, so we'll see where Roki Sasaki signs up. Before we get back into Bounceback candidates, it is time to talk about, all right, we'll just quickly mention because maybe some people haven't heard of what's going on here. And I don't think it's going to happen, by the way. But this golden at-bat rule that's kind of made waves on the internet

and everyone's so angry about it. And I completely understand why. If you don't know, this is a rule that's being discussed, whispers about it. Each team could choose one at- Asgust is a good word for it. Each team could choose one at bat in every game to send his best hitter to the plate, even if it wasn't that guy's turn to hit. So it completely changes like everything about baseball.

but I think it's a fun concept for like an all-star game, a tournament, something like that, but like major league games. It's not going to happen. What are we doing? And like, so like what? If your number three hitter makes an out in the ninth inning,

can you send him back up? Like what are like that? Yes. Well, theoretically two of bats in a row. And they haven't, they haven't sorted. They're not that far into the discussing it that they've worked out those details, which tells me this.

was Rob Manfred floating out a trial balloon to see the kind of response it would get. And the response has been intensely negative, rightfully so. I see it as a like a wisdom of repugnance situation where if I try to explain what's bad about this, it sort of undercuts the point because it's just there are so many things. it is so disruptive to the core tenets of baseball that to fixate on anyone, I think, like I said, kind of undermines the whole point. And so I just, we all get it. It's yucky. We don't want it.

And I don't think, I think the trial balloon has failed. I'm going to quote one of the best television shows I've ever seen and or Disney Plus's. and or the pace of repression the pace of oppression outstrips our ability to understand it and that is the real trick of the imperial thought machine it's easier to hide behind 40 atrocities than a single incident that's what they're doing they're throwing this out there to confuse us and get us talking about something that's never going to happen so they can slide some other dumb thing in that's slightly less offensive look i want to be my take i want to be fair here because i don't be fair no i want to be fair.

I think there to Rob Manfred. There have been huge changes in baseball. I think a lot of the changes have been very good. And most of the time when I heard them initially, it made me uneasy. Like the idea of the game having a clock, it doesn't really have a clock. It could still technically go on forever. But, you know, there is a time limit for players to do something now. And that was always like a sacred thing.

You couldn't get baseballs the game without a clock. And so, of course, it made me uneasy to hear it at first. And it made a lot of people uneasy. But like as soon as we saw it implemented, almost universally, almost universally, even old crusty commentator types were like, oh, yeah, this is better. The game became so much more washable in 2023 between that and the renewal of the stolen bases with the disengagement limits. And so like, I want to give some deference to that. his instincts have been mostly good with these things. This one's bad.

This is more than just making me uneasy. This is just awful. And, you know, like I said, it's not, it doesn't sound like it's far enough along yet that like it's definitely going to happen. And I ultimately don't think it will. Go away, Golden at Bat. Come back to us.

Bounce back candidates. We have eight players to talk about in 10 minutes. So. We got this. You will each get one player per minute and give us your thoughts. Let's start with Zach Gallen, whose ADP last year was 43. It's down to 115. Obviously, we saw a big rise in the whip and the walk rate.

Those were a problem this past season. And we will start with Scott. One to 10 on the bounce backometer for Zach Gallen. You were on the clock for a minute. I'm going to say that's an even five for me for Zach Gallen. I have him ranked outside my top. top 30 at starting pitcher, which is still surrounded by some good pitchers, but it's going to surprise people just given where Zach Gowan has historically ranked. Part of it is what is he

bouncing back to? Because three of the last four years now, he's had an ERA in the mid-3s to low fours. And so are we putting too much emphasis on his early career? Are we putting too much emphasis on that 2022 season when he was the fifth runner-up for Cy Young and the NL, fourth runner-up. I think there was a lot of weirdness in the second half for Gowan. That is hard to explain, and he's had elbow issues like ligament sprains in the past, and I wonder, is that at play? Because any time you see weirdness in a pitcher's performance, that's hard to explain a lot of times it manifests as injurious.

later. But I think even if that's not the case, even if that's a red herring, I just don't know that Zach Gallen deserves to be treated like we've been treating him the past couple years. You can't keep getting away with it. Scott, you exceeded your minute. You can't keep getting away with this. Barely. I had a timer going. It had it beeped for like five seconds. Let's talk about Adela Garcia. His ADP last year was 43. He's all the way down to 136. He had that huge 2023. He won the World Series. He was awesome in the postseason. This past season put up a dud. The ADP, the OPS took a huge step back. The power also took a step back. Had some knee troubles. So perhaps, you know, that's lingering a bit here. Chris, you are up. The bounce back O meter on Adoles Garcia. Yeah, I think the biggest

distinction here is like, we're talking about Boba Chet, right? He turns 27 a couple days before the start of the season, I believe. Adoles Garcia turns 32, right around the same time. And And so that's the biggest thing. It's just it's so much easier by a bounce back for a 27-year-old than it is for a 32-year-old, especially one like Adolios Garcia who posted the worst quality of contact metrics of his career, actually not the worst strikeout rate, but still pretty bad. The lowest sprint speed of his career by far. He was down to, I think, 36 percentile.

It just all points to a guy who's not the same physically. and he was always kind of dancing on a knife's edge with his skill set. He would go through these stretches where he was really good. He would go through these stretches where he was really, really bad. I'm going to put a two on this one. I think he's just an all or nothing slugger who steals the occasional base now. Look at that. A minute on that dot.

I know your timing yourself. I had a timer going. I see you doing it. I do worry about the knees again for Adola Garcia. He has now sprained patella tendon in both of his knees to, kind of like towards the end of the last two seasons. Let's talk about Randy Orozarena. His ADP was 44, not 144.

44 last year. It's down to 128. It was a pretty typical a Rosarena season. He went 20-20 again, except for batting average. The batting average went from 254 to 219. So Scott, basically, I'm asking, do you think Randy Rosarana can bounce back to that,

you know, 250-260 hitter he's been in the past? I think it can. I'm not totally sold on the idea that he will, which is why I'm going to put him as a five on this meter, same as gallon, and I'm ranking him in the same sort of middling way. The reason it looks like I'm about 20 spots, I have him 104th in my overall rankings, Rosarena.

So it looks like I'm a little ahead of the consensus. And part of it is because he did hit 254 over the final four months. So those first two months when the ball was carrying the worst, he at 158. and in the final four months he basically looked like Randy Ronda Ronda still managed to eke out a 2020 season

for hitting 158 over the first two months and so I've always felt like his performance he was kind of on a knife's edge there like the underlying stats didn't really back up the production and I was always wary of a rosarina

but I feel like everybody has kind of caught up and surpassed me now and I'm like well there's still some things to like here with them. So five. Oh my good goodness gracious. Scott, you're in trouble once again. How could you do this? It beeped for like two seconds. I got you. I'm timing it. What a hard out. I see. Let's talk about Adley Rushman.

Adley Rushman's ADP was 50 last year. It's down to 66, so it's not a huge drop. But I think people just want to know if Adley Rushman is going to bounce back. And Chris, to that you would say? Yes. All right. There we go. No, I mean, on June 27th, Adley Rushman was hitting 300 with like a 730 OPS. He was having an Adley Rutchman season. 830. 830 OPS. 830 Ops.

From that point on, he hit 189. And this is not an arbitrary endpoint. He took a foul ball off his hand while catching. They call him the tools of ignorance for a reason. His quality of contact was way down. Everything. Like, it just seems like he got hurt. And he played through it because he's a tough guy.

And that's commendable and great. but I think he's going to be fine. A 10, 9. I said I wasn't going to do any tens, 9. But if you want a dark horse MVP candidate, put a couple bucks on Adley Rutchman. I'm sure he's got super long odds right now. He's the best player.

One of the best teams in baseball. Second best player, maybe. I don't know. He's great. I'm zero concerns whatsoever. These last four players, I will admit, I don't know if they're really bounce back candidates.

I don't know what they're bouncing back too, but they are going much later in drafts this year than they were last year. So let's talk about Royce Lewis. The ADP was 50. He's down to 100, so the ADP has doubled through the first half of last season, like just his career up to that point.

He played 94 games, hit 303 with a 945 OPS, and then he was awful in the second half. Scott, we know there's an extensive injury history. where is Royce Lewis on the bounceback o meter for next season? Yeah, this is going to sound like a cop out. It's another five for me, mostly because like you said, I have no idea what to expect from him going forward.

So I'm just going to go, I'm going to straddle the fence. I'll give the exact numbers. So he's now played 152 major league games in his career and the final 58 of them. So over a third, 207 with a 620. Yes, that was the longest stretch of health for Royce Lewis as a major leaker. And it was terrible. And I don't think he's that bad, obviously.

But it was hard to believe he was as good as he looked prior to that in between all the injuries. It was almost superhuman what he was doing. And so I only have him ninth among third basement for next year, which isn't a particularly deep position. I mean, I'm baking in some injury risk there too. but mostly I'm saying I just I don't know who he is I don't know that he has top 50 type upside let's talk about Cody Bellinger another one it's like bounce back to what his ADP was 55 last year it's down to 124 I guess Chris I'll ask is there any chance that he can bounce back to that awesome 2023 version we saw where he hit 307 26 home runs 20 seals in 881

OPS I didn't really understand how that happened so I I guess I can't really say No, because he could just do the thing that I don't understand again. And look, like the rumors that he could get traded and the Yankees have been linked to him. Like, okay, I could get excited about Cody Ballinger on the Yankees. I think that could work out pretty well because he no longer seems to have huge raw power anymore. That seems to have gone away. But aiming for that short porch, that could work out really well. I just, I kind of think he's like a dead zone hitter where like he doesn't quite hit the ball hard enough to rack up a lot of extra bases.

He doesn't quite pull the ball enough to hit for power. It's just like it kind of seems like he's just blah across the board. And I think what he did last year is probably about what I'm expecting. So I'll say a five, I guess. I don't know. These last two are a little. a little tougher. Nolan Jones, if you can believe it,

his ADP last year was 56. It's all the way down to 242. He followed up his breakout season where he hit 297. He went 20-20, 931 OPS with maybe the biggest dud of all. Scott, there were lots of injuries involved here. There was a knee.

There were back injuries multiple times. Nolan Jones on the bounce back o meter. I got to say, I'm pretty pessimistic here. and I don't know that I have a super scientific reason for it. I just look at a guy who has strikeout issues, contact issues overall. He's had platoon issues. Is that even true? He didn't have his good year.

Has he had platoon issues? Maybe that's not an issue for Nolan Jones. I look at a guy who the guardians gave up on and who's, prospect stock plummeted when he was in their system. And it's really just that one year in Colorado that we're hanging our hat on here, which he followed up with a complete stinker. I'm not sure there's enough positive here for me to give him more than like a three on the Worryometer. Now, or on the bounceback a meter.

Now, is a three worth the 240th pick overall? Yeah, sure. No reason not to take that risk given what Nolan Jones showed us in 2023, but I'm not optimistic. He'll bounce back to that. Honestly, doesn't really have big left-right splits so far in his career. You know, the OPS is off a little bit, but very similar batting average so far for Nolan Jones there. And Chris, you will take us home with Josh Lowe, who had an ADP of 98 last year. So I cheated a little bit on this one.

But he was all the way down to 166 so far, another big breakout, and then had a dud. and derailed by injury. I mean, oblique put him on the IL twice this past season. What does he bounce back O meter for Josh Lowe? Yeah, I mean, I think it's fair to wonder if he was ever healthy last year because he had that.

It was a hip injury, oblique injury in spring training right before the start of the season. That, you know, that's just a bad foundation for a season. So, look, maybe last year's the fluke in 2023 is the baseline. I thought 2023 was a fluke at the time. I think he's a platoon bat. I think he's probably like a safe source of stolen bases,

but how much do we really care about that at this point? You know, like he's a guy who's got real contact issues, probably just won't play against lefties. I don't see a ton to be optimistic about with Josh Lowe. Like it feels like he could be a 30 stolen base guy who's not a zero for power and those are rare. But it just, it seems unlikely that he's a must-start player at any point. It feels like when Austin Meadows had that huge 2019 and then was terrible the next year.

Like everybody was kind of buying into Austin Meadows as a stud after that 2019. And then he fell off the next year. And it's like, well, could he get it back? And the question I have in the case of Josh Lowe also is, Arthur raised that committed to letting him get it back. Like if he played in a different organization that I trusted to play him with regularity, I'd be more optimistic about Josh Lowe

heading into next year, but he's kind of just a non-factor, you know, maybe in a roto league to fill out a five-man outfield. I'll throw a late-round pick at him and hope for the best, but I don't have really any expectations for him next year. I don't think that he can get back to 2023 levels, but the fact that they're playing in Steinbrenner field, that short portion right field,

I could see, you know, 250 to 260, 15 to 20 home runs, 25 to 30 steals, it doesn't blow you away, but that could be pretty useful as like a third, fourth, fifth outfield or something like that. And the ADP is 166,

so it's not like super low. But I could also see him getting 220 bats, you know? Yeah. I just think you've never healthy last year. So I think I'm a little bit more optimistic on him. Okay. Yeah. I don't know.

He's basically being drafted around Parker Meadows. I think I'd just rather have the guy who was good last year, you know? For a portion of the, like, he was good in the second half when he came back. But he was really bad. That's a lot more than Josh Lowe was. Yeah. Again, I just, I think he was never healthy, but we'll see. Maybe he's going to be a pretty polarizing player.

I got low around 200. You know, I have him back to back. I have Meadows 218, low 219. Okay, so you guys are not getting Josh Lowe, at least based. on this early ADP. All right, we got it done. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank.

Thanks as always for tuning in some fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.