Fantasy Baseball Today - 2020 Lessons Learned; Bellinger vs. Freeman (09/23 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: September 23, 2020

Before we get into the Fantasy talk, Scott deserves a congrats on the Atlanta Braves clinching the NL East! Who do we have in the World Series?... For our OMGG Tuesday standouts, what happened to Brady Singer and is Nick Pivetta back (5:10)? ... On to news and notes, Justin Turner was out with a hamstring, J.T. Realmuto finally returned and Mike Clevinger is due back Wednesday (10:30)... Our email of the day asks whether or not six-inning performances in seven-inning doubleheaders should be considered complete games (15:14). Should they? ... What are some of the lessons we've learned in 2020 (24:09)? How do the league leaders compare to 2019 at this point in the season? Were there more early-round busts for pitchers or hitters?... For 2021, how high should Trea Turner be drafted (42:20)? Would you rather draft Cody Bellinger or Freddie Freeman? What has fueled Gerrit Cole's turnaround? ... Who were Tuesday's surprises and who should you stream on Wednesday (52:23)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our new YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and son. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Brady Singer stinks. Nick Povetta is back. And are we drafting Freddie Freeman ahead of Cody Bellinger in 2021? Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Frankie Stamps and Scotty Dubbs here on a Wednesday, September 23rd. Got a fun show plan for you guys,

but first and foremost, and girls out there that are listening, congrats Scott, on the Braves clinching the National League East. You know, I saw some amazing trivia on Twitter.com today. I believe this comes from the Braves current beat writer

for the Atlanta Journal Constitution, a young fellow by the name of Gabe Burns. And if I was asked this, trivia question, I would have gotten it wrong. But I would have gotten it wrong on two counts.

Did you know that the Braves have more division titles than any other team in history? They have 20. Both of those I would have gotten wrong. I would have guessed a team other than the Braves. I would have guessed a number higher than 20. Divisions have only been around for so long.

Interesting. The Braves hold the record with 20. Yeah, no, there's no way I would have got that. 14 straight 14 straight if you eliminate the strike short in 94 season where the season never

technically ended of course the expos were in first place at the time so you know some people say it was 11 straight to the Braves one some people say 14 straight but it was the stretch of 14 in 15 years and that obviously contributes to a lot of that 20 but now they have three in a row

so a brand new streak beginning well Scott I'll throw another question back your way and I don't know if you the answer, but obviously, like, whatever. I'm young, so I don't know that I should know the answer to this. But when did, when did division start being a thing in baseball? I, I don't know. I don't know. Because I would have probably just automatically thought the Yankees is because, like, they were so successful. But, yeah, and they obviously have by far the most World Series titles.

They are at 19 right now. So they could theoretically tie that record. keep pace with the Braves, I guess. But, you know, the Razor in the lead right now. And it's not, it's looking like the Razor going to keep that lead. So, um, according to- I don't know. I think it was in the 60s, but I don't really know. According to Google,

the Google machine says, 1969 is when division play started. As part of the 1969 expansion, each league was to be split into two divisions of six teams each, with each league holding a best of five league championship series to decide the pennant. All right.

So there you go. You learn something new every day. Scott, I'm going to put you on the spot. Speaking of divisions, teams making playoffs, the Atlanta Braves. Who you got in the World Series as of today? Hmm. I haven't thought about this since our initial predictions when I had the twins beating the Dodgers. Don't feel as good about that now.

I mean, you know, it's okay. I think that could certainly hold up. You know what? I'm going to stick with it. Twins over Dodgers. Why change things when they're both certainly going to be in the hunt? I believe I had the Astros and the Dodgers before the season started. I got a fact check that and make sure.

But yeah, I don't feel great about Houston. I'm going to do the old switcheroo. Like pitching wins in the postseason, you know, their lineup is not great, but that pitching, Cleveland. I'm going to say Cleveland. I'm going to say Cleveland and the Dodgers. and I think the Padres and the Reds are very sneaky as well in the National League. I mean, the Indians lineup isn't great, but Jose Ramirez is making a pretty strong push here for ALMVP to close out the season.

I believe he leads in war now. He leads the league in war, the AL. So, you know, lately that award's been going to the war leader. So that's interesting. That's interesting. You know, really sheds some. light on just how big of the season he's had from fantasy perspective, too, because stolen bases, I doubt they contribute much to that high war. And obviously, they're very valuable in

categories. I mean, they're valuable in points leagues, too. And Ramirez has provided plenty of those on top of everything else. A little actual baseball talk. We don't do that enough probably here on fantasy baseball today. Speaking of today, on the show, 2020 lessons learned some 2021 early round chatter. I mentioned Freddie Freeman. Should he go ahead of Bellinger? Talk about that a little bit. Whoa there. Some Tuesday surprises. And then team name Wednesday because I said I was going to do team name Tuesday yesterday. And somehow I forgot it. So boom. Hey Scott, what do you call Brady Singer in a public place? Brady Singer in a public place? I don't know. The masked singer. Oh my goodness gracious. No chance that I came up with that joke on my own. It was sent in from Mark

in Kansas City. He emailed that in Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. So thank you for that, and he is potentially both of our, oh my goodness gracious, players of the night, but Brady Singer,

going up against the Cardinals, his first of two starts in the final week of the season, and it seems to have been a theme the past couple of weeks where pitchers is just letting you down at the wrong possible time. Maybe it's our own fault

for trusting Brady Singer at this time of year, but only lasted three innings, three hits, three earned, five walks. Ayah, aye, aye, Scott. Brady Singer, what happened here? I'll get into Brady Singer, but I'm trying to understand the joke. The mask, I understand the Mask sceneer, singer is a reality show phenomenon,

but Singer in a bit like, is that all, is that the joke? Or is there something to, is there a play on the word mask having to do with being in public? I just thought it was a play. the show, but... Okay. All right. Just making sure. Just making sure I wasn't missing something there. Okay. Brady Singer, he walked five tonight. He had walked...

He had walked five in his previous six starts, like a total of five in his previous six starts, and then walked five tonight. So very uncharacteristic. Obviously not something we were anticipating. It wasn't great. It wasn't great. Fortunately, he should have a second start to make up for it. Hopefully he will. He stuck with the approach of going fastball slider and, you know, tunneling those two pitches.

It didn't lead to a lot of swinging strikes. In this start, it's worth noting it had in the previous two. You know, I wish it had gone better. I think there was a lot to back it up that call. I wish it had gone better. That's what happens sometimes. Yeah, sometimes that. Is how it unfolds, unfortunately.

How the cookie crumbles. That is how the cookie crumbles for Brady Singer, and hopefully it does not crumble your fantasy seasons. I did want to highlight someone who performed well against Brady Singer in the start was Dylan Carlson. He had three hits. He finished a home run short of the cycle, and he now has six hits in five games

since being recalled by the Cardinals. So, all right, all right, a little, you know, let's finish strong here, Dylan Carlson. Give us something to be excited about heading into the 21. 21 season, but all right, I'm kind of interested. Scott, is there anyone else you wanted to highlight outside of Brady Singer for your

Tuesday standout? Yeah. Let's highlight Nick Povetta. Obviously, not going to get much used out of him this season, but based on the way his first start went with the Red Sox, they had kind of kept him on ice since

acquiring him from the Phillies, Povetta. For those who don't remember heading into last year, I think, He was one of the most hyped pitchers in the fantasy baseball world right up there with Shane Bieber. Actually, I feel like they were kind of competing for everybody's favorite breakout candidate at starting pitcher. One worked out, clearly, one not so much. Povetta had a great debut here, though, with the Red Sox, five innings, one earned run, struck out eight, three walks, but struck out eight and five innings with 14 swinging strikes. Seven of them came on the slider, which has been his best pitch.

it much more often in this start. You know, there may be more changes happening than that, but that's one that's pretty plain to see. Throwing your best pitch more often is usually a formula for success. And there's definitely upside here. He kind of got, you know, kind of got forgotten in Philadelphia. You know, because he didn't, he underperformed, obviously. But there is upside here.

And it would be interesting to see. how much buzz there is on him heading into next season, what the media writes about him, what the leadership, Red Sox leadership is saying about him, if we can get a good buzz going again for Nick Povetta. Yeah, and he should have a spot in their rotation because the Red Sox need all the help that they can possibly get. I know Tanner Hauke has looked pretty good for them

down the stretch these past couple of starts. Nathan Avaldi constantly banged up, see when they get Chris Sale back next year as well. But yeah, Nick Povetta came over in the, I believe it was the Brendan Workman trade. Is that correct? I think so. I think that makes sense.

Yeah, once upon a time he had a ton of upside. You mentioned the swinging strikes in this start. I joked at the top that we're back, here we are with Nick Povetta, but yeah, let's see what happens in spring training next year and heading into the 2021 season. I'm slightly interested here. Some news and notes. Jorge Polanco sat out Tuesday's game

against the Detroit Tigers with ankle soreness. It's been quite a disappointing season for Jorge Polanco. Justin Turner was scratched Tuesday night with that lingering hamstring injury. He's already had an aisle stint because of the hamstring. Mike Yistremski with the calf, Nelson Cruz with the knee, Michael Conforto with the hamstring,

and Chris Bryant with the obfrey. with the oblique, we're all out for their respective teams on Tuesday. J.T. Real Mutu finally returned for the Phillies. And oddly enough, he started both games of a doubleheader. Like, this guy's been dealing with a hip issue. I get it. Like, okay, the Phillies want to put themselves in a position to win games,

but it's like, the guy has missed so much time. You're going to start him in both games of a doubleheader, his first day back. I just thought it was interesting, but J.T. Real Muto is back. Mike Clevenger is also back. has been clear to start on Wednesday against the Angels. Scott, if you have Clevenger in a daily lineup league, would you get him back in the lineup?

I would. Yeah, I would. I mean, it's possible, particularly with you, if you're talking about championship caliber teams, that their pitching staff is so loaded, there's no need to take the risk. But I think the general fantasy player would want to get Clevenger back in his or her lineup based on the way he's pitched recently. Catele Marte returned from the IEL on Tuesday.

He was batting second for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Dylan Moore was placed on the seven-day concussion IEL. On Tuesday, he was hit by a pitch late in Monday's game. He'll miss the rest of the regular season, but what a surprise year it has been for Dylan Moore. And after missing two games over the weekend, Alex Verdugo was back in the lineup for the Red Sox. Sonny Gray returned on Tuesday against the Brewers

and pitched five strong innings. He allowed just one run with eight strikeouts, 10 swinging strikes on 80 pitches. Slider usage was down in this return. Looking at that pitch in particular, Scott, for Sunday grade, I was trying to figure out like, all right, what's gone wrong for him this season? On his slider, which was a fantastic pitch for him in 2019, he is allowing a 56% line drive rate on his slider in 2020. that number was just 16.5% in 2019.

So, I mean, that is just an absurd number when you hear it. It's just off the charge. That means half the time that they are putting his slider in play, it is a line drive, which I just thought was very interesting. Yeah, it'd be interesting to break it down further because at the start of the season when he was dominating, he was throwing the slider about as much as last year. He was getting good whiff rate on it,

and then he stopped getting the whiff, so he stopped throwing it so much more recently. it didn't happen right away, but, you know, obviously those two starts came right before the IL, and he wasn't so great without the benefit of that slider. He didn't throw the slider much in this start, like you said, but it was more effective for him. He threw just seven, he got three whiffs on it. I mean, that's a good, has a really good whiff rate, obviously. And maybe he's working to regain the trust in that pitch. Maybe it was a product of his, his back not feeling quite right, him not getting the same result with that pitch. So it's still very much a key to his success.

He referred to it as the cheat code, the way the Reds helped him learn to maximize its effect last year. It's always been a good swing and miss pitch for him. But I think the Yankees philosophy was just throw your slider more like I was talking about. On the top of the show, that's generally a good strategy for pitchers, throw your best pitch more, and I think that's the stance the Yankees took with with Gray regarding his slider, but then he joined the Reds. And, you know, it turns out him getting the most out of that pitch wasn't that simple. So it's a big deal to Sunny Gray, that slider.

And, you know, hopefully this is evidence that he's starting to regain it. Hopefully, we'll get to see him in the playoffs because the Reds make it. I will mention that if you were started Sunny Gray in the hope of two starts, it doesn't sound like that's going to happen now. They're planning to bring Trevor Bauer back on short rest to make a second start. They're obviously fighting for a spot in the playoffs and see that as the better way of achieving that. So just this one start for Gray, fortunately it was a good one. Shamey couldn't get a win out of it, but, you know, it could have gone much worse, obviously.

Scott, I know that you are working on some early, very early 2021 rankings, but if you had to rank the three Reds pitchers as of now heading into next season. Trevor Bauer, we don't know if he's going to be back with the Reds yet. He is a pending free agent. Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Sunny Gray. How would you rank those three? Just in the order you name them. I'd go Bauer. Bauer, I have, I believe, oh, let me think through this. I think I have, I think I'm seventh heading into. next year and Castillo would be like 13th and then gray would probably be just a little behind him, 15th, 16th, something like that. Trevor Bauer, man. We're going to do this again. He's going to be a second third round pick. It was easier to draft him in 2020 because you're getting him in, you know, fifth, six, sometimes seventh round, but, man, back in the second third round, he deserves it.

He deserves it, but I will, I'll just remind people of the risk, but we have a lot of time. If not for that risk, I'd probably rank him fourth. I mean, I share the concern there that he's just going to, different approach last year than he used the year before and a different approach again this year. So, like, we don't even know that he's going to stick with this next year. It's just the way he is. And it opens up a new can of worms, obviously,

when he changes his pitch selection like that. That's exactly what I was going to say, too. I was like, different pitch mix this year. He's going to have a different pitch mix. Next year. Is it going to work? You'll have to wait and see. You want to spend a second or even a third round pick on Trevor Bauer to find out.

Hey, all the power to you? I'm probably not going to do it. But let's see where that ADP settles in the off season. Email the day. This one is from Jake. He needs a little bit of help here, Scott. He's in a head-to-head points league. Championship matchup.

This is an interesting question. He said that his league is currently debating it. Should Aaron Nola get points? I guess they get some kind of point bonus for complete games in this league. Aaron Nola got points for a complete game on Tuesday, throwing only six innings because it was the first leg of a double header. And the nationals were the home team, and they were winning. They did not need to bat in the bottom of the 7th.

So Aranola got credited for a complete game. Should that count? Should this... Whoever has Noel on their team, should they get the bonus points for a complete game here, Scott? No. They shun it.

It's not... I don't think it's officially considered a complete game by Major League Baseball. I don't think so. I know, like, if some... It came up, you know, if somebody threw a no-hitter in one of these seven-in-in-game,

it wouldn't be... It wouldn't officially be a no-hitter. So I assumed the same went for a complete game. Like, colloquially, we might call it a complete game, but it wasn't officially. I'm not positive, though. Not positive. You think it would have come up before now?

So I'm trying to figure out now. I know that Garrett Cole, did he pitch in actual complete games here where they just... I think, yeah. So he hasn't... Garrett Cole has not pitched more than seven innings. And the reason I bring this up is because I know he was credited for a few complete games this season.

He has not pitched more than seven. seven in any start this season. Yet according to baseball reference, Garrett Cole has two complete games in 2020. So while I think this is very frustrating, and I understand if I was going up against Aaronola and he just pitched not great for six innings and got credited for a complete game,

I would be frustrated. But I think if this has been the rule all season long in your league, and baseball reference is counting these complete games, quotation marks, complete games for doubleheaders as actual complete games, I think you have to leave it. I think if that's been the rule all season

and no one's brought it up until now, it's frustrating, but I think those are the rules. You kind of have to play by them. There's no reason you change that if that's, if your league, I'm looking in the league, I'm looking in the league that where we do have complete games is a category, it's a points league, but complete games are worth a certain

number of points. And maybe it's just one of those stats that doesn't show up immediately in the live scoring, since it's uncommon like that, but don't have him, they don't have Nola with a complete game. So, I don't know. Yeah, obviously

if it's gone to Cole before, like there's no reason to change it now. Like, that ship is sailed. If you wanted to make an exception in your league that those aren't going to count as complete games, then you should have done that, you know, back in mid-July. Yeah, so I'm looking at my home league as well.

It's a points league, and we get bonuses for complete games, and I had Aaron Nola in my lineup, and I didn't get any bonus points for a complete game. So, look, it could be league-specific. See if by tomorrow, if it's on his baseball reference page, that, you know, if Nola was credited for a complete game, I guess you leave it, but you just heard, in leagues that I play in, in leagues that Scott plays in,

he wasn't credited for a complete game. So it's kind of a weird situation here, but I think if he actually does get credited for it, I think you have to leave it. Speaking of Aaron Nola did not get any help from his defense on Tuesday as they committed two errors behind him. Nola allowed five runs total in the start. Only three of those were earned.

And he allowed all five of those runs in the first two innings of this start and retired 10 of his final 11 batters faced, 13 swinging strikes on 94 pitches. Scott, do we still feel as strong about Nola as a borderline top five, or even consensus, top five starting pitcher heading into 2021? He's slowed down, you know, three of the past four starts here, hasn't been the same Nola we had earlier in the season. Should we consider names like Kershaw, G. Alito,

maybe even Trevor Bauer, ahead of Aeronoa. I still have Aaron Nola 4th heading into next season I have Gielito 5th Oh you move Shurzer down Yeah I move Shurzer down And it's a narrow margin

I could be talked into Shurzer Right now I have Shurzer 8th So I have him behind Bauer Darvish Jolito Nola I mean when we did our mock two weeks ago we had him About that far down too It's

36 years old has had some trouble staying healthy the past two seasons and he was dealing with a hamstring injury earlier this year. And while you're happy it's not an arm issue, it's still a sign that his body is not bouncing back the way it used to. You know, and while the strikeout rate's good, the stuff looks good this year.

He has allowed a lot more base runners. He's gotten hit harder. Maybe there's some subtle signs of decline there. you know eventually these guys reached an age and it just just falls apart on them look at what look how that played out for justin verlander this year so yeah i i mean i have shurs are going in the second round but i have him only is my eighth pitcher i have nola fourth even after this start nola is fifth in the majors in ex-fip ahead of him or degramman beber of course also Kinta Maida and

who's the other one? Darvish, I think. So he was third going into the start and ex-fipnola was. Now he's fifth. Now the numbers still look really good overall. They look really good overall. He managed to salvage a quality start today.

So that was nice to see after rough first couple innings. I think he's still really good. And I was just playing devil's advocate because I think that Aranola should be in the top five assuming that this improved change-up that he has flashed in 2020 carries over to 2021, I absolutely think that he deserves it.

He's using this change-up nearly 28% of the time this season. I've mentioned this before. It's really helped his other pitches play up. His fastball is not a great fastball. It's pretty straight. Has had issues commanding it at times in the past. It's like 92 miles per hour. His curve ball was his bread and butter pitch for a long time.

But now this change-up has really, really come into its own. So three, two plus plus pitches here for Nola and then, you know, a solid fastball there to back things up. So I think that he deserves to be in that top five conversation. All right, Scott, some 2020 lessons learned. You tell me if we learn anything from this. But I looked at the first 50-ish games of 2019. Compared it a little bit to what we have at this point in the season.

Of course, I could have just waited until the end of the the season and done this for 60 games, but whatever. Let's talk about some lessons we might have learned at this point. In 2019, Kirby Yates was your saves leader at this point with 20 saves. Shane Green had 16, a roll of Chapman and Kenley Janssen had 14. You had 14 different relievers with double-digit saves. First, 50-ish games this season. Brad Hand leads baseball with 14 saves. So that's down a little bit from where Kirby Yates was at. Liam Hendricks has 13 saves Ryan Presley has 12

Alex Colome has 12 you have nine different relievers with 10 plus saves so I didn't think it could get worse but somehow that number has actually gone down from 2019 to 2020 Scott anything to see here regarding relievers

I don't think so there was a crazy amount of turnover at this role like the first two weeks of a season. Remember how every day we had to go through so much bullpen stuff and I was writing bullpen reports for the website weekly, it seems like, when normally I'm not doing it that often. But there has been a lot less drama, really since, I'm not exactly sure when, but pretty much, I think basically for all of September, the bullpen drama has really quieted. So I don't know that there's really been any kind of paradigm shift happening this season.

Of course, it's hard. It would be hard to detect that anyway, just because the season's so short. I mean, obviously there are outliers all over the place, and nobody really knows what to make of them. But no, I'm not really, I don't really have any broad takeaways on the relief pitcher position or the closer role based on what's happened this season. I assume that the plan as of now, Scott, heading into 2021, is to chase saves late in drafts once again and try to find them on the waiver wire. That's always my plan whenever I've strayed from that plan because I thought there was a particularly trustworthy class of closers or particularly high end with strikeouts specifically.

Whenever I've strayed from it, it's blown up spectacularly. so yeah I mean that now I don't think it makes sense to do that a good a good example my tout worst team um I made very little investment in saves in that tout wars team 15 team roto so like you know everybody's interested in everybody who emerges as a safe source because there's just not enough to go around in that kind of league the closers I drafted I believe memory serves was Brandon Kinsler, Wade Davis, and Hunter Harvey.

Those are the save sources I drafted. Obviously, only one of them has given me a single save. But just by playing the Waverware, I'm first in saves. I'm first in saves and not in jeopardy of losing it this final week.

So you can always, you can always find that, you can always fill that category on the fly, even in a deeper league like that. Looking at the five-by-five pitching categories, this is actually crazy how eerily similar this is. But in 2019, at this point, your leaders,

Junjin Ryu, 1.65 ERA, Justin Verlander and Domingo Hermann had eight wins each. Verlander had a 0.73 whip, and Garrett Cole had 100 strikeouts. That was last season. In 2020, at this point, Shane Bieber, 1.74 ERA, so 0.09 off from where Ryu was at.

Shane Bieber has eight wins, the same amount as Verlander and Domingo Hermann. Clayton Kershaw, 0.75 whip. that is 0.02 away from Verlander, and then Shane Bieber has 112 strikeouts, 12 more than Garrett Cole. Don't really think there's much to see there, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

Same thing with hitting. Oddly, very similar. First 50-ish games of 2019 versus 2020. Christian Yellich, your leader. 21 home runs at this point. Luke Voigt, your leader, this season. 21 home runs. Cody Bellinger, 47 runs scored.

Fernando Tatis, 47 runs scored. Cody Bellinger, 48 R. RBI, Jose Abraeu, the man. 56 RBIi. Cody Bellinger, 386 batting average, DJ LaMahue, 356. So a 30-point difference there. And then Adelberto Mondecee was your leader with 18 steals. Last season at this point,

Adelberto Mondecee is your leader once again in steals with 20, but he's batting below 210. So it comes at a price for the steals with Adelberto Mondecy. Scott, anything to see there. I mean, it's just crazy, like how spot on it is year over year. Yeah, it is crazy. It is crazy. Very surprising.

Obviously, Ryu didn't finish with a 165 ERA last year. Burlander didn't finish with a .73 whip. Verlander and Hermann didn't win 24 games or whatever it would have translated to. So, like, regression came for those league leaders, as I suspect it would for Bieber. for for Void, for for LeMayhew. I mean, anybody hitting over, I don't know, anybody hitting over like 315. I'm going to expect their batting average to regress.

But yeah, it's surprising that the leaders, from one year to the next, that the number that leads the league is that close to the same. All right, let's do a little exercise here. I'm looking at NFBC ADP from July 2020 this year. I'm going to read you the first 30 starting pitchers drafted for each name that I bring up, Scott. You just tell me, was this player a bust,

regardless of circumstance, regardless of injury, COVID, whatever it might be. Was this player a bust? Are you ready? Okay, so I have pretty... I don't throw that term around loosely, just to preface this segment. I'm not somebody who, oh, he disappointed me a little,

so I'm going to call him a bus. No, that's fair. As long as we're consistent for both, pitchers and hitters, that's fine. Yeah, I don't interpret a bust as somebody who has to live up to exactly their draft position. If, you know, if they didn't wreck you by drafting them where you did, they're not a bust. Okay. Garret Cole.

Not a bust. Jacob Grom. Come on. Not a bust. Justin Verlander, bust. Yes. Max Scher. That's an interesting one.

Be curious to see exactly where he ranks at starting pitcher, where his production ranks. I'm going to say not a bust, but... I agree with that. It's enough to get me thinking about it. How about Walker Bueller, bust? I think so. I think not really his fault, just the way the Dodgers...

Their refusal to stretch him out the way... The way any team would stretch out any pitcher. The Dodgers just don't like to play it that way with Bueller. And I'm really worried about him next year, too, because right now he's sitting at less than 40 innings. Presumably he's going to get some in the playoffs. But are they going to increase, are they going to let him have a 130, 130, 120 inning jump last year

to get to 180? Or next year, I mean, I have my doubts. Mike Clevenger. It was looking that way for a while, but I'm going to say not a bust. Jack Flaherty. Yeah, probably a bust just because he missed all that time and it took him so long to build back up. Like I, again, kind of like Walker Bueller, no fault of his own.

Shane Bieber, obviously amazing. Stephen Trosburgh, bust. Luis Castillo, not a bust, right? Not a bust. Clayton Kershaw, amazing, Lucas Yolito. Not a bust. Not a bust. Charlie Morton, bust.

Yeah, that's a bust. Patrick Corbyn. This is an interesting case. I think he's, I think now, you look at his numbers now, you've got to say he's a bust. think so, too. How about Blake Snell? I want to go as... Well, where was he drafted exactly? I know I had him...

His ADP was 46, so he was a borderline fourth, fifth round pick. I don't think that he is a bust. Maybe in a points league. I certainly feel worse about him now than I did coming into the season, which is saying something because I had him on my bust list. He hasn't had a six-inning start all season. I mean, the skills are still there.

He had 22 whiffs in his 5 and 2 3rd innings today. But yeah, that's a real concern. It's hard to be a front line pitcher if you're never going to be in position for a quality start or at least very rarely. So is he a bust? Nah, a little shy of a bust. Chris Paddock.

Look the actual numbers there. Sometimes get so into the start by start for somebody that you lose sight of the overall number. numbers. I'm going to say 4.23 ERA 114 whip 55Ks and 55 in a third innings. And he's averaged

less points per game than Zach Eflin and Jaime Borea. Of course, Zach, of course, Blake Snell's in that same range too. He's right there in terms of points per game. Ah, the inconsistencies abound.

I'm going to say bust for Chris Batic. Bust for Chris Paddock. All right, let's do these names a little bit quicker. You Darvish, not a bust. Zach Granky bust? No. Not a bust for Granky.

Aranola has been amazing. Tyler Glass now, not a bust. Not a bust. Jose Barrios? I'm going to say, you always stop on the hard ones. I guess it's the point. He's rebounded pretty nicely, not a bust. He wasn't really being drafted like an ace.

Trevor Bauer is not a bust, although he was in my bus column. Brendan Woodruff, not a bust. How about Frankie Montas, definitely a bust? Definitely. Blown up again. Sunny Gray. Not a bust, right?

No. Corey Kluber, a bust. No fault of his own, but just got hurt. James Paxson got hurt, bust. Lance Lynn, not a bust. Mike Soroka got hurt, not his fault. But a bust.

Carlos Carrasco, not a bust. So that is the top 30-star starting pitchers. We have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. 11 out of 30 that we considered bust. Let's quickly do the same thing with the top 30 hitters that were drafted in the same time frame in July, according to the NFBC. Ronald Le Cunia, not a bust. Christian Yelich. Got to call them a bust, I'd say. It's one of those things where, and the same could be applied for those pitchers. If given four more months, maybe they would prove not to be a bus, but

we're not giving four more months. So I'm going to say bust for Christian Yelich. And Cody Bellinger. Yep, bust. Mookiey Betts, not a bust. Trout, not a bust. Lindor. Interesting case. I'm not going to call him a bust. He's kind of underwhelmed relative to those outlier performances that you see from other hitters. But he's done normal Francisco Lindor things. And in fact, his stat cast data is pretty much the same as the last four years. I'm going to love getting Francisco Indoor in the second round in 2021 drafts. Trey Turner, not a bust. Trevor Story, not a bust.

Jose Ramirez not a bust. Juan Soto, not a bust. No one in Aronado, a bust. Alex Bregman. Yeah, Bregman too. Bregman and Aeronado both busts. Fernando Tatis is awesome. Bryce Harper, not a bust, right?

No. J.D. Martinez bust. How about Raphael Devers? He's rebounded nicely. I don't think he's a best. Yes, not a bust. Freddie Freeman is awesome. Starling Marte has been, I think, solid enough.

Fine, yeah, he's been fine. Claibor Torres is a bust. Adelberto Mondesie. I don't, like, you drafted him for steals. He gave you 20, but he's batting, like, 20. He's probably... You drafted him much later in a points league than a roto league, and in a roto league,

he gave you what you wanted from him. So I'm inclined to say not a bust for Ad Alberto Mondesie. Okay. That's an interesting one. Ozzie Albies has missed a lot of time. I guess he's a bust. Well, his numbers look great now. He's been...

Yeah. But yeah, I mean, just from the time he missed, how much he was able to contribute to your team. That's a tough one. I... Well, you know, I call Jack Flaherty a bus. So I guess I should call Ozzy Albies a bus too. Javier Baez, easy one.

Pete Alonzo. Bust. Anthony Rendon. No. Not a bust. Not a bust. Ketel Marte. Bust, right?

Bust. Jose Altuvae bust. Right. We're piling up busts here all of a sudden. Kestin Hira. He's giving you some counting stats. The batting average is quite bad. 2.15.

He has 13 home runs. 32 RBI. runs, three steals. I think you got to call. I think you got to call him a bus. I don't know. That's borderline. 13 home runs.

You've got the final call, Scott. I am going to say, I'm going to say bust. How about Jonathan V.R? I could debate that forever. Oh, VR is definitely a bust. He does have 12 steals, which is what you draft him for.

but he has 13 runs scored. He got traded and he doesn't play that much anymore. Right. Which was always the bust case for him, I'll point out. Finally happened. J.T. Real Muto, missed some time, but not a bust. And Zander Bogartz, well, not spectacular. He hasn't hurt you either.

286. Not a bus. 10 homers. Not a bust. Bogart's not a bust. Real Mutto, definitely not a bust. I mean, he's by far the number one catcher. Okay.

One, two, three, four, five, six, 17, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. 13 busts in the first 30 hitters drafted, 11 busts in the first 30 starting pitchers drafted. Scott, would you say that this further enhances your strategy for both this season in 2020 and heading into next year, which you've already stated you will go back to the well with starting pitching and being aggressive on them early? Does this further reinforce that, yes.

I don't know if this means anything too. me to be honest because if it was more pitchers busting than hitters that that's what i'd expect it's not it's not a it's the reason i go and i'm even going to go further with drafting high-end pitchers early is just because that's your only chance to get them and the alternative is terrible um but they're riskier apparently you know this is evidence that maybe they're not but it's it's a small sample both in terms of it being one year and it being a really weird year. And like I said, guys like Yelich, Bellinger,

you know, I might expect them to bounce back over a full season. You might say that for some of the pitchers too, like Flaherty, Bueller. But, yeah, I don't think it changes anything, but it's interesting because I'm sure most people listening would expect it to be the other way around.

We're going to take a quick break, but I just want to remind everyone to join our Facebook group for some off-season fun. There's some people asking some keeper questions or some dynasty talk, some strategy as well. Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. The link is also in the episode description. We're going to take a quick break.

When we come back, we will take a look at Tuesday, some early round studs, some surprises. We'll do that here, fantasy baseball today. Some early round studs from Tuesday. I don't think we need to spend too much time on this, but I want to highlight some of these names that have been really great, just all season long. Trey Turner went three for six in two games, added two more steals. He is now up to 12.

He is betting 3.39 with 10 home runs, 27 years old. It looks like the best version of Trey Turner that we have ever seen before. Scott, I will ask you the same question that I asked you about Jose Ramirez yesterday in Roto Leagues, maybe even in Points League.

Should we consider drafting Trey Turner ahead of Christian Yelich and Cody Belanger? I'm not moving on Yelich because the quality of contact has been so high for him this season. And I think it's been a combination of bad, bad bit luck and a bloat, and a bloated strikeout rate, both of which I 100% would expect to correct over a full season. So I'm really not moving on him.

I have more uncertainty with Bellinger. And as I was going out, as I was going and making out my first two rounds for next year, I found I kept moving him down, moving him down. I finally did drop him behind Trey Turner. I think he's right in between Trey Turner and Jose Ramirez, Bellinger, going 12th overall. And it's interesting because you brought up Bellinger versus Freddie Freeman. I don't know if you want to get into that now.

But yeah, let's do it. It got to a point where, you know, I kept dropping Bellinger one spot after another. And now, you know, I think there's just that one player, Jose Ramirez separating him and Freddie Freeman. So it's worth asking the question, do I really value Bellinger more than Freeman? You know what? As we're having this, I want to check something.

This may be a moot point. Well, it may not be totally moot, but Bellinger, hmm, he's definitely going to be outfield eligible next year. He needs two more appearances at first base, at least on CBS to be first base eligible. So he has, what, 18 appearances there already? Yeah. I would imagine, and I haven't heard anything from CBS yet in particular,

but I would imagine that we should lower the position eligibility requirements from this year for 2021. Yeah, I'm not optimistic that's going to happen. There's certainly a good argument for it. They didn't lower it from five in season. And look, it won't take him long to get five appearances next season at first base, I don't imagine. So, you know, even if he doesn't technically start out with first base eligibility, it's probably fair to think of Bellinger as being a first, as being first base eligible still. Regardless, I mean, you could still compare him and Freeman on their merits as a hitter.

And look, this is the best we've ever seen. Freddie Freeman B? He's hitting like 350. As I just said earlier, anytime somebody's batting over like 315 and I'm being I'm being pretty generous there by saying 315. I expect that number to regress.

And Freddie Freeman and batting average has been so consistent year after year that especially, like, he'd probably hit over 3.3. 300 if the next four months happened. But he wouldn't be this good. I think right now he's second and head-to-head points per game among all hitters, second only to Juan Soto.

And I just don't see that holding up over a full season. And these are the kind of hunches we're going to have to play when we're putting together 2021 rankings because like it's just, it's just, it's really unfair to assess players on just two months of data. because they can get warped in this way. But I feel like Freddie Freeman's numbers are warped by the small sample, just judging by his track record.

You look at the stack has data, it backs them up. But I feel like that's worse. I think as closely as I've paid attention to it over these two months, it's become crystal clear to me that that is as much symptomatic as causal, maybe even more so.

Like a player, and that's why. what it's meant to be, too, by the way. That's been brought up by countless emailers. I feel like I'm rambling at this point, but the point is, I don't think Freddie Freeman is going to be as good in 2021 as his 2020 numbers are, and I will still bank on Bellinger finishing ahead of him. What came first? The chicken or the egg? Statcast numbers or real-life numbers? Either way, it doesn't matter for Freddie Freeman because they are all awesome.

his real-life numbers and his stat-cast numbers. You know, it was just something I was thinking about today. I think it comes down to what kind of drafter you are. If you, in your early rounds, want safety, I think Freddie Freeman is the way to go. If you want to swing for, okay, who in this early second round range has the ability to finish as the number one player in fantasy, then I think Cody Bellinger is your call.

But I think it comes down to what kind of drafter you are because this is now two of the past three seasons where Cody Bellinger has not looked all that great, And they are sandwiched around an MVP season, where he was phenomenal. So take your pick. But as of now, I am leaning with Freddie Freeman. Juan Soto had a... It's the thing.

Yeah. You're not going to talk me out of it. At least not today, Scott. I'm leaning with Freddie Freeman. Juan Soto had a... The search for a home run and stolen base combination continues. Someone sent us in actually Charlie is his name. He submitted.

of this as an alternative for sweet and savory. Juan Soto had a schmoke and a pancake. Shout out to Austin Bowers, gold member. In game two, he had his 12th home run and his fifth steal of the season. Wonsoto was a mid-first round pick. I don't think there's anything to see there. For the Yankees, I will spare everyone my yelling Bronx bombers into the microphone, but they did put up 12 runs.

Aaron Judge, Hicks, Glaibor Torres, Gia Warshela, Kyle Higashio, all had multiple hits on Tuesday, but the story of the game was the continued excellence of Garrett Cole. Seven innings of one-run ball, zero walks, seven strikeouts, 14 swinging strikes on 108 pitches.

We mentioned that he got off to a slow start last season that seemed to be the case this year as well. Over his last four starts, he has lowered his ERA from 3.91 to 2.84. Why? Kyle Higashioka has been his personal catcher

for all four of those starts. So, I don't know how much that actually matters, but I'm kind of starting to think that it does, considering that Gary Sanchez, not known as a great catcher, Scott. Yeah, his ERA was higher through, I think the same number of starts with the Astros.

It was much higher. I mean, the ERA looks good now. So, yeah, I haven't really seen any reason to worry about Garak Cole this season. He's become a little more home run prone in a home environment where it's worse, even worse to be home run prone. and has been, you know,

slightly worse version of the Garrett Cole we saw last year. But like all the ways he falls short of last year, he's within shouting distance. It's another, it's another situation where like, give him four more months. And it's very likely he's going to meet or exceed those ratios he had last year because it's just,

he's not far off, you know. I put up a poll. very late last night, early morning. And I asked, who is your SP won overall in 2021? The options were Shane Bieber, Jacob DeGrom, Garrett Cole, and other. Would you like to guess who won and with how much percent of the votes got? Unless you voted and you didn't know the answer. I would guess Shane Bieber won with 45% of the vote.

Wrong. Jacob de Grom with 54% of the vote. Wow. Shane Bieber did come in second. 32.7% Garrett Cole, just 11% of the vote. So, they lost to Other? No, Other had 2%. Bad math on my part, sorry.

But I think that's just a little recency bias because Jacob de Grom had 14 strikeouts on Tuesday. Let's see what Shane Bieber does when he pitches on Wednesday. I'm surprised because in terms of fantasy production

with the difference in Wednesday, and losses. She Bieber's a diss at first at starting pitcher this year. I do think it's closer than obviously the results are, but I wouldn't expect people voting. Randos voting in a Twitter poll to think of it in that way. I will have Jacob de Grom as my SP1 overall. So it's going to be a great offseason because look at this. We're already finding so many things that we disagree on. Freddie Freeman, first first baseman that should be drafted, Jacob DeGrom, your SP1 overall in 2021.

Marcel O'Suna had four hits on Tuesday, including a double dong. He now leads the National League in home runs with 17 and in RBI with 53. He is batting 327. You know, let me just hit it up. Oh my goodness gracious. Marcel O'Suna, you deserve that because you have been fantastic.

Scott, did you know that entering Tuesday, Ozuna was the number three outfielder in Roto and number six outfielder in head-to-head points per game? I did not know that I like to hear it Guy is a beast A few surprises that I wanted to mention from Tuesday Whoa there! Blake Snell

Mentioned the name earlier But 108 pitches Wow, that was a season high for Snell I don't know if there's any rhyme or reason to this Perhaps they're just kind of building him up for the postseason Get that arm ready So that he can pitch deeper when they need him most But that was interesting

Austin Voth, seven innings of one-run ball, seven strikeouts, Stephen Brault. All right, seven shutout innings against the Cubs. He has now allowed one run over his last two starts. That is 16 innings worth. And I already mentioned Nick Povetta. Griffin Canning at the Padres, 10 strikeouts over six innings. Canning, Bralt, Voth, Snell. Anything that you wanted to add on those four performances?

Well, canning's been pretty interesting lately. And I wish we could see more from him. He had 20 swinging strikes. And this was a tough match. This was against the Padres. 20 swinging strikes contributing to those 10 strikeouts. And yeah, I wonder how much his elbow has affected, like from the beginning, obviously, since there was concern he might have Tommy John surgery at some point.

You wonder how that elbow is affecting him. The slider hasn't been. the go-to form this year. But, you know, he got five whiffs with it in this start. And I just wonder if he's getting a better comfort level on that. With that, if he's working to develop some of his other pitches more since he can't rely on the slider so much. I like the direction canning is trending.

Actually, got the ERA below four with this start. That's probably the most notable one. It's been crazy. The back-to-back starts for Stephen Brault. but because I think the previous one was a complete game shutout, right? Yes, it wasn't a shutout. He allowed one run in that start, but yes, complete game. Yeah, two awesome starts in a row for Stephen Brault.

But he's been around for a long time and has been useless for a long time. I don't see much happening here, throwing more changeups, fewer sliders, but it's not like the changeup. It's getting a lot of whiffs for him in general. So I don't see a lot to get excited about here as good as those last two starts have been. I'm going to keep throwing polls on Twitter. So if you want to get involved at Roto underscore Frank,

I just put up who do you draft first, Freddie Freeman or Cody Bellinger? So it's going to be interesting to see the results. Oh, I think that's going to be Freddie Freeman. You think so? Yeah. So far there are 10 votes and it's 50-50. For your polls, I will always choose the guy.

not me personally, but I would expect the winner of the poll to be the guy who is doing better right now. Yes. It's funny. The recency bias is like, people get a little crazy with it sometime. Team name Wednesday.

This one's from Matt. Hauke Alugo. Oh, okay. I get it. Yeah, I like that. By the way, speaking of Seth Lugo. That's a nice call by you, Scott. Very nice call.

They may have dropped the ball on Brady Singer, but... Very nice call. Yeah, I was breathing a sigh of relief when Seth Lugo spun those six and a third one-run innings against the raise, striking out seven. After that disaster is outing

where he gave him four home runs, didn't know if he was falling apart. Clearly not. Hopefully his second start this week goes as well as the first. I'm telling you, man, the first start after a pitcher that you know it's actually pretty good.

The first start after that pitcher gets rocked. I feel like they always bounce back. I have to remember that for next year. Maybe I'll find a way to do some research on it in the offseason, but that happens way too often where a pitcher gets rock, first start back, they bounce back. There's got to be something there.

I mean, Austin Nola didn't exactly bounce back, right? It was okay. He had a quality start. His defense kind of messed up. I'm sure we could come up with countless exceptions, but I just wonder if that's a confirmation bias thing. You got going on there, Frankie Boy. Yeah, it might be like the contract year debate as well.

It's like we only highlight the people who have great years in their contract years. Do we ever remember the people who have bad contract years? Yeah. All right, we'll see. This one's from Chris. Never mind the Pollux. Here's the Mountcastles.

Okay. What is that? I don't know. It sounded good. That was from Chris. Chris, if you want to email us back or if anyone else knows what these are, please let us know.

This one was also from Chris. Scoopal, Scoopo do! Ah, yes. Classic. Watch a lot of Scooby-Doo growing up, actually. This last one's from Jared. Another one. I have, please, someone informed me.

There's a million names in this one, too. Riu-Nola-U, Kana Betz Turner is da-Bomb. I don't even know if I'm reading it right. Riu-Nola, U-Kana, Betz-Turner is de Bome. Yeah. And there's no way to Google that, because I just copy and paste that into Google,

and it's like, Google just says like, it almost sounds like a sentence. You know, I try to do this. I have tried to do this before with some of my teams, just string together a bunch of names and hope to get a workable sentence out of it. It's always a strange.

A big stretch. And pretty much nobody understands it but you. So it's a lot of effort. I like the effort. It's probably misplaced effort. Continue to send these in some team name. Tuesday, Wednesday. Doesn't matter what day.

Send in some funny team names. We'll read them throughout the off season. Wednesday to stream or not stream the must starts that I have here, Shane Bieber and Lucas Gialito are going up against each other. Zach Rankie hasn't been great recently, but he's at Seattle. I like the matchup. I think it's must start.

Kyle Hendricks was fantastic his last time out. Going up against the pirates, love the matchup, must start. Tyler Glass now is at the Mets. Max Fried versus the Marlins, Kentimaita versus the Tigers, and Trevor Bauer versus the Brewers. Scott, Masahiro Tanaka at Toronto,

yay or nay? I'd rather not, but he's been solid this year, so you need another starter. I think it's okay. it's just, I'd rather not have to be in, I'd rather not have to do that. Jaime Berea his last time out, he was pretty good.

He's at the Padres on Wednesday. Yeah, I still don't trust him. I know he's been pretty good, but I'd rather not. Zach Eflin at the Nationals? Nope. Eric Fetty versus the Phillies. No. Alex Young versus the Rangers.

No way. Sixtho Sanchez at the Braves. I actually think I'd do that. I trust the pitcher that much. And he was great in his first outing against the Braves. It's only had one bad start. It was his most recent one. You know, the old Frank Stamphelsary.

It's been put to the test so many times. Yeah, I'd go Sixtho Sanchez. I would. Let's go, Sixtho. Make me look smart. Something I have never said before in my life. Dean Kramer at the Red Sox. It just depends what you need more.

If you're chasing totals or if you're preserving ratios, that old boring answer. Nathan Avaldi on the other side versus the Orioles. I'll go with the same answer. Casey Mize at the Twins. No. Carlos Martinez at the Royals. No.

Danny Duffy versus the Cardinals. for the 18th time this season. I feel like he's been hanging by, like, he's been, he's been on the verge of disaster for a long time. It finally happened last time out. Let's avoid Danny Duffy. Sean Mania at the Dodgers. Not with that matchup, no.

You want to do it? You want to do it? He's been so good, man. I think his last time he was out in Corse Field and he was good there too. Yeah, well, uh, Rockies are pretty bad. I'm going to give you the Scott White answer.

Depends what you need. If you're chasing totals, that's the smart answer. That is the Frank. I second that. The last but not least, Julio Arias versus the A's. Depends what you need.

I'd lean yes on Arias. But there are some instances where I might say no. All righty. He is Scott White. I have Frank Stamble. for listening and watching fantasy baseball today on our YouTube channel. We'll be back again tomorrow.

Bye-bye.