Fantasy Baseball Today - 2021 Outfield Recap! Are We Buying Cedric Mullins & Tyler O'Neill? (11/02 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 2, 2021

Before we get into the outfield, we have some quick news and notes (2:14)! Bob Melvin will be the manager of the Padres and Charlie Morton had surgery on his fractured fibula. ... Outfield, year in review (7:05)! Let's start with the likely AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. ... Teoscar Hernandez was ridiculous (10:56). Are we buying the improvements? Is this the best version of Bryce Harper (13:27)? ... Nick Castellanos finally broke out (19:47). How much will Cedric Mullins regress? ... Aaron Judge finally stayed healthy (25:!4). ... Starling Marte is a free agent Tyler O'Neill finally put it together (31:23). ... Kyle Tucker is a five-category stud while Mitch Haniger managed to stay healthy (36:56). ... Yordan Alvarez's knees are healthy and Bryan Reynolds looks legit (41:13). ... Who are the real J.D. Martinez and Randy Arozarena (45:24)? What went wrong with Betts, Yelich and Bellinger (53:55)?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris and Adam.

The outfield position in 2021, lots of breakouts, and lots of busts. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, November 2nd. Frank Stamphill joined. by Scott White. There will be baseball in November. It's already November. Look at that. And as you can tell, it's Outfield Week here on the podcast. Today, we'll recap the position. We'll take a look at the top 20, top 25, and figure out what went wrong for three names in particular that were drafted in the first 15 picks this past season. And whoever we don't get to today, we'll talk about on Thursday's podcast when we take a look at Scott's early rankings for 2022. Scottie, I know that your

30 ranked outfielders are currently live on the site. CBSports.com, how is the position looking early on? What's the diagnosis here? It's hard to break down outfield because it's so big and it's so varied, right? Like, obviously there are just a lot of people who play the position, but there are so many different types of players who play the position. You'll find the extreme power guy. You'll find the speed guy.

You'll find the good across the board guy, the low strikeouts. guy and they're all still there. I don't know that outfield ranks is particularly deep or shallow. I don't know. It's just another really big position. Yeah, we were talking before the podcast started a little bit about pitching because your pitching ranks just went live on the site as well. Pitching.

Pitching's changed a lot. That's changed a lot. I'll have a lot to say about that one. Yeah, it's super deep. And I don't think that we're feeling the same way about outfielders early on. but we'll talk about it. I want to hit some news and notes here up at the top before we actually get into the outfield position.

Some things that are going on that I think are worth mentioning here. The Padres have their new manager. In Bob Melvin, who spent the last 11 seasons with the A's, I didn't know he was available. I guess maybe his contract just ran out in Oakland, but yeah, he's going to be the manager of the Padres, and I think it's a great hire. I know the Padres had to get permission to interview him,

and the athletics granted them permission to interview him. So, um, weird. Yeah, I mean, that you don't, I guess you don't see that as much with a manager as high profile as him. Uh, you see it a lot with like, you see it a lot when a, when a guy is interviewing for a job, that's a higher position than the one he already owns. Like an assistant GM interviewing for a GM job. Uh, but just a lateral move manager to manager. Yeah. Um, I, I think some. people think the Padres, or I'm sorry, the athletics should have gotten compensation for that, given that Bob Melvin is a multi-time manager of the year, has been there a long time,

obviously had a lot of success. But that's not what happened. So, yeah, new manager there, new manager in Oakland. I'm guessing Mike Schultz not going to be a manager at all because San Diego is the spot I pegged him for. But we'll see. We'll see. Yeah, I mean, there's still a few other job openings available. Maybe Mike Scheld takes a year off. We've seen that happen many times in baseball and then bounce back to next year and potentially get a job.

So we'll see. A few more vacancies still available here in Major League Baseball. The Mariners will not pick up Kyle Seeger's option, which was expected. Charlie Morton underwent surgery to repair the fractured fibula he suffered in game one of the World Series.

Should be good to go for spring training. So obviously it was unfortunate for multiple reasons. Our Braves, obviously. Our Braves. Hey, I bet on the Braves, they are. I am now a part of Braves country. I don't know if that's like what you call them, but I am part of it. So how are you feeling about it with somebody who has a financial stake in the outcome of this series?

Not great. Not great, huh? No, I don't. That doesn't make me feel any better. Well, look, those bad, those bad feelings are coming back, Frank. I think that the, I think the pitching, the starting pitching obviously favors the Atlanta break. But obviously, I also think that momentum is like a real thing in sports and as especially within a seven game series.

So obviously there was a huge momentum shift, Grand Slam for the Braves in that last game. And then the Astros come all the way back. They win. And now they're going back home. So yeah, they win game six. Then then it's it's not looking so good for game seven. Well, that's what feels bad about it is, is that they get the grand slam the Braves do from Adam Duval in the first inning.

They're up four to nothing. and what could be the clenching game, right? And then they can't hold on to that lead for two winnings. So that, yeah, I mean, the momentum, you mentioned that. And just, you know, obviously, you know, every fan base feels like it's gotten the short end of the stick, right? And something I always try to comfort myself with is, you know, a league of 30 teams, you know, in theory, your team should only win once every 30 years, right? You should get two or three championships from your team in your lifetime.

If things are equally distributed, of course, things aren't equally distributed, but just in terms of what's fair to a fan base. I try to comfort myself with that. And, you know, the Braves have won a championship within the last 30 years. but there have been the entire fan base so many close calls particularly in recent years

and of course none greater than 28 to 3 the Falcons lead over the Patriots in the Super Bowl and losing a 3-1 lead to the Astros in the World Series

wouldn't be nearly as bad as that for what it's worth but it would still be really bad obviously and you know I'm trying not to go to that dark place I'm trying not to

but it's hard not to. It feels like a movie you've seen before, and I feel good that Max Fried is going on the mound on well-rested, and all the big bullpen arms are well-rested, and you can't say the same for the Astros, but we'll see. We shall see. Let's go, Max Fried. Awesome year. Let's see if he can come up in the biggest moment of all. Jameson Tyone also underwent surgery on his ankle and is expected to miss five months. We spoke about that earlier in October.

Not really sure why the Yankees waited. long for him to have surgery, but alas, here we are, and he's probably going to miss the start of the regular season in 2022. All right, so you're in review, the Outfield Edition, the way that we've done this on other podcasts is half the podcast about has been reviewing the position from the past year, and then the other half is looking at rankings. Today's entire podcast is just a recap of the position. So again, let's jump right in. The number one outfield of this past year will not have outfield eligibility in 2022. And that is Shohei Otani.

257 batting average, 46 homers, 103 run scored, 100 RBI, 26 steals, the fourth overall player in 5 by 5 Roto this past season, likely to win the American League MVP and likely to be a mid-first round pick again next year. I know that we're kind of cheating here because it's an outfield eligibility next year, but we're not going to do a utility-only podcast,

so let's talk about Shoaheotani now. Okay. I'm a little bit more concerned about the second half. I think the full season statistics are fair. Probably regresses. Like, even if he gives you 35 homers, 20 steals, he's still going to be worth a first round pick next year. But I will point out the second half numbers,

like he had nobody in his lineup, nobody in the Angels lineup. It could have just been like lineup protection, nobody else around. He was still walking a ton. The strikeouts were also up as well. Scott, I think you're a little bit more optimistic on Shoahoe O time.

for next season. Yeah, I am. It was a bad second half, but, you know, in terms of the actual skills, I don't really see anything that diminished there. You could make the argument, I guess, maybe that he wore down from all the work he was getting between being the starting pitcher every six, seventh turn. It seemed like it wasn't a very consistent track. was on pitching. But, you know, he made a bunch of starts and then also playing every day

as a hitter for really the first time doing, you know, in the past when he was pitching, he would not be in the lineup the day before, you would not be in the line of the day afterward. He got a lot of extra rest built in. And he didn't even complete the season because he ended up and he needed Tommy John surgery. So that workload is what allows him to be a first rounder in fantasy now, as opposed to like a mid-round guy who, who's not going to get all the abats you need. So it's a good thing. But, you know, it may come, it may turn into something

where he wears down in the second half consistently. But that's just a theory at this point, because we've only seen it once. And, you know, just the power speed combo. I mean, other than Tatis and Acuna, who, of course, have their own concerns, you don't have another power speed combo like that out there, a guy who goes 40, 20, potentially even 45, 25, you know.

that's so rare. Plus, I know Tatea and Acuna are super fun to have on your fantasy team, but look, it's supposed to be fun. And having Otani on your fantasy team is really fun. I had them on a few of my teams this past year. You know, I will remind everybody that I believe it was the podcast Points League. The first month of the season, I traded Kestan Heura to won Chris Towers for Shohei Otani.

Oh, man, I forgot about that. Crazy. It's just like, you know, he thought he was selling high on Otani. You know, he thought he was buying low. And those things were technically true. But man, yeah, that really worked out. You want to have fun, draft Shohei Otani. I think overall, he's going to be just fine.

The number two outfielder this past season was Fernando Tatis. Yes, he will have shortstop and outfield eligibility. Next season, he hit 282, 42 homers, 99 runs, 97 RBI, 25 steals. He was the fifth overall player. And he played something like 130 games. We spoke about him extensively on the shortstop podcast, so we're not going to do that again today. We're going to move on to number three.

Teosker Hernandez, the number three outfield. They're 296 batting average, 32 homers, 92 runs scored, 116 RBI, 12 steals. He finished as the eighth overall player. Scotty, we've talked about it before. We're taking big Ls on Teoska Hernandez, but it is just continued improvement year over year, making more contact and hitting the ball hard. 25.6% line drive rate since the start of 2020, sixth among qualified hitters for Teoska Hernandez.

You do that in conjunction with great lineup, great ballparks to hit in, the counting stats are going to come, and that's how we got to this point with Teoska Hernandez. Yeah, I mean, the biggest thing you mentioned the contact, he went from being a guy who strikes out every third plate appearance to every fourth plate appearance. I mean, big improvement in that category.

which, you know, if you had told me that going into the season, I might have been a little more sanguine about him, but, you know, it's hard to predict skill changes like that. And so he caught us by surprise. But, yeah, in terms of how he impacts the ball, you know, if he's only going to strike out a quarter of the time, it's going to lead to big production. And the fact that he also steals some bases,

had a dozen of them this past year. that that that's enough to to put him over the top and make him a legitimate early round pick and you know you factor in the lineup he's in as well that's still going to be a great one next year with the blue jays so he had 116 rBI 92 runs scored i mean you get you combine for over 200 of those that makes a big deal too you know it doesn't get talked about as much because you know it's it's it's not something of has direct control over, but we know the Blue Jay's line up's going to be great next year, too. Yeah, with or without Marcus, I mean, obviously it would take a bit of a hit. There's no doubt about that, but I think either way, they're still going to be really, really good. And they have a few more prospects coming soon, too. So, yeah, I think no matter what, they're set up for the next couple of years. I mean, more than that, like, the next decade, if they could keep everyone together. Not the easiest thing to do. I'm very interested to see where the ADP

settles in for Teasca Hernandez, because I think he's probably going to be like a third or fourth-round pick and that's very deserving. But yeah, that's just a guess as of now. I'm very interested to see where that comes in. Number four at the position was Bryce Harper. Maybe, maybe the best version of Bryce Harper that we have ever seen. 309 batting average, 35 homers, 101 run scored. Only 84 RBI, obviously, again, doesn't really have control over that.

13 steals he finished at the 10th overall player in 5x5 roto the past two years. I mentioned might be the best version. Two straight seasons of at least a 297 expected batting average. So to have your XBA be that high, obviously, you know, 20, 20, shorter season, not really a full season. But he is doing something right

right now and he's making more contact and he kind of dealt with some injuries in May. But from June 1st on, in 1104 OPS, that was first among qualified hitters, what do you think, Scott? Is this the best version of Bryce Harper that we've seen? Well, he's been league MVP before, obviously, in 2015. But this is

you know, you look at the underlying numbers. This is basically that guy again. And it was the same in 2020 as well. So yeah, we're looking at a little bit of a history of Harper back to performing at an MVP level. So I would say this is the hardest I'm buying into him since that MVP 2015 season where he was in the discussion to be the top overall player in fantasy, the following year, obviously let everybody down that year. And I'm not saying

he's the top overall player now, but this is the first time and a long time I'm entertaining Harper is like a first round pick potentially, because he does provide the speed 13 steals this past year. And you know, even in points leagues, he's

emerged as he's always been a good on-base guy, but now with the low strikeout rate too, his plate discipline really stands out for points league. you know, that's, that makes a difference in that format. Obviously, he was right behind Juan Soto in terms of head-to-head points per game, 3.88 versus 3.87.

And you can understand why. I think Harper definitely back to being, if he ever stopped being, then he's back to being a true stud in fantasy. Yeah, I think he's a lock for, you know, probably more so the late first round, but regardless of format. Points Leagues, you mentioned it, walks a ton, going to get on base, he's going to score a bunch of runs, he's going to hit home runs.

And the steals, while he doesn't excel in that category, he has provided at least 13 steals or has been on pace for 13 steals over a full season in five of the last six years. So that's not nothing when you combine that with 30 plus homers and all those counting stats. So yeah, I'm very excited to buy back in on Bryce Harper. Number five at the position was Juan Soto, 313 batting average. 29 homers, 111 run scored, 95 RBI, 9 steals. He was the 11th overall player.

I mentioned what Bryce Harper did from May 1st on. Juan Soto, OPS, actually from June 1st on, was 1078. He was second behind only Bryce Harper during that time. He got off to a bit of a slow start. Juan Soto did. He was dealing with, I believe it was a shoulder injury early on in the season. It seemed like it hampered him, but just walks so much. makes a lot like a crazy amount of contact.

The only thing is I wonder if the home run upside's kind of capped Scott because he just hits so many ground balls, you know? So like near 53% ground ball rate this year. Oh, I wouldn't say it's capped. I mean, he's only 23. And he just turned 23 like a week ago. The upside could be massive. You know, if he just pulls the ground ball rate down

into the 40% range, like 45%, we could be talking about, you know, 40 home runs. It's just, I'm not going to project that because he hasn't done it. He's done it less often than he hasn't. I would say that of the hitters

expected to go in the first round, with the exception of Trey Turner, right? Juan Soto has demonstrated the least power so far, if you followed that sentence that I said very slowly. Makes sense. Yeah, I mean, career high is only 34.

He had 29 home runs this past year. So you're talking demonstrated power, basically the 30 homer range, while a lot of the guys were talking about going in the first round and more like 35 to 45, right? But just in every other way a hitter can excel, Soto really stands out. I mean, 525 on base percentage in the second half of the year. That was 87 walks versus 41 strikeouts. He walked more than twice as much as he struck out in the second half.

That's crazy. Yeah. We haven't seen an on-base. I genuinely think we haven't. I looked at some of the history of this. I'm not sure we've seen an on-base guy as good since Barry Bonds. You know, Joey Vado's obviously had some great years in terms of on-base ability, but I think Juan Soto surpasses even him,

and he's still in his early 20s. So, you know, I'm not really inclined to nitpick the home runs, and I think there's a very good chance with everything he's demonstrated at this point in his career that he's going to get better and better still. But that's probably what makes him more like a mid-first rounder, instead of somebody who's in contention to go number one overall. Now, he probably is in contention to go number one overall in points leagues because that walk-to-strikeout rate is just, you know,

all those free points from the walks, hardly losing any points from the strikeouts. That's going to be enough to push him to the top of the points league rankings. But he drops behind some of those base dealers in, in traditional 5 by 5 leagues. Number 6th of the position was Nick Castellanos finally had that breakout that we were hoping for 3.09 batting average,

34 homers, 95 runs, and 100 RBI. In only 138 games, he was nicked up for parts of the season. He finished 18th overall in 5x5 Roto. And this is our latest example, Scott, of trusting the process, at least when looking at expected numbers.

So we had the small sample size, 20-20, and his expectations, the numbers according to Stackass were much better than the actual numbers. I remember a couple of years ago that was Marcelo Zuno was a similar example. Last year coming into 2021, that was Nick Castellanos. Strikeouts come way back down. It's going to be interesting to see where he lands because he's expected to opt out of his contract.

I didn't realize his splits were this stark. 11.09 OPS at home in Great American Ballpark. 7.72 on the road. so obviously that is a great great park to hit in. I think that's going to change his value where he lands up. Yes, yes, it will. And part of the reason we were so excited about him and projecting him for a break through,

there wasn't just what the stat cast numbers said, but also him getting out of Detroit, which seemed to be the worst possible park for his swing, his tendency to drive the ball to right center. and going to a very small park in Cincinnati. It is surprising to look and see that the splits were quite that extreme, but he hit 309 versus a 289 XBA. He has slugged 576 versus a 522XBA.

You know, it still seems like, which obviously Park does factor into the expected stats, but, you know, my point is there is a good chance that we just saw the best version of Nick Castellanos that we've ever seen. So I'm ranking him much lower than his finish, expecting a step back, because I don't think he'll be in Cincinnati, wherever he goes. I will point out, though, that what first got us excited about Nick Castellanos

was when he got traded to the Cubs for the final third of the 2019 season. That's when he first got out of Detroit. with the Cubs in those 51 games, he hit 321 with 16 homers and a 1002 OPS. And the Cubs don't play in a park that's as extremely hitter-friendly as Cincinnati's is. It's pretty neutral, maybe even tends toward pitching a little bit. Wrigley Field does.

So, you know, maybe it was more, despite what the 2021 splits say, maybe it was more about Detroit holding back Castellanos than Cincinnati elevating him. still, it seems unlikely he's going to repeat quite the numbers he had in 2021. Number seven at the position was Cedric Mullins. He hit 291. 30 homers, 91 run scored 30 steals. He was the 20th overall player, and he was the breakout of the year.

His ADP in the preseason was 440.7. So an afterthought, plate discipline looked fine. Did see a big jump in his home run to flyball ratio. Camden Yards could definitely help out with that. He did outperform his expected stats. by quite a bit, and he slowed down in the second half. Line drive rate dropped about five percentage points, infield fly ball rate more than doubled

from the first half to the second half, and that has been an issue for him basically at every level. Minors, majors, lots of infield fly balls. So he's going to take a step back. The question is how much of a step back? Is he a 280, 290 hitter, or is he a 260-2-70 hitter?

Because obviously that's going to change, how many runs he's going to score, and so on and so forth. I think the power definitely comes down too. So if he's like a second round pick, Scott, I just, I can't imagine investing that high of a pick in Cedric Mullins. Second round, no. But I think it's going to be impossible to pass him up in the third round of a Roto League,

just by virtue of him being the majors only 30-30 guy this past year. And the steals especially, which weren't as surprising as the home runs. I mean, we didn't see him becoming a power source, really. but he's always been a guy who could run and steal some bases. So that might be the most trustworthy part of his stat line. Given that his expected batting average was in the 260 range all year and he ended up hitting 261 in the second half, it's one of those situations where I'm kind of thinking

maybe the second half was more indicative of who he actually is, even though full season statistics tend to be. to be more indicative than partial season statistics. Just because they tend to be, it doesn't mean that's always true, obviously. And I think if nothing else, just because it was such an out-of-nowhere season, the prudent approach is to think,

okay, probably like a 260 hitter, but still with good power and speed. I mean, hitting 261 in the second half, he still had 14 home runs, 14 steals. So actually a better pace even than the first half in those two categories. And that would justify a third round pick in five-by-five leagues for sure. A little lower probably in points leagues.

Number eight at the position was Aaron Judge, he finally stayed healthy. He played 148 games his most since that near MVP 2017 season. He hit 287, 39 homers, 98 RBI with six steals. The counting stats, not where they technically, not where we would expect them to be, but the Yankees lineup just, they really underperformed a lot of them. So as a result, his counting stats were not great. And he actually slightly underperformed his expected numbers too. So drops to strike out rate a little bit.

I think we kind of know who Aaron Judge is at this point, Scott. He's 285 plus, really good power. He'll chip in a handful of steals. But he just needs to stay healthy. That's the biggest key for him. Well, yeah. And are we going to trust him to stay healthy? Because he finally had a season where he basically did,

played 148 games. It wasn't a 52 homer season like the last time we saw him healthy, but obviously 39. I mean, that's nothing to sneeze at. And he actually, you mentioned the strikeout rate was down. It was down quite a bit from his peak. It was basically as big of a drop as we saw from Teoska Hernandez this past season. And it hasn't come at the expense of him producing these outlier, 99th percentile, exit velocities and hard hit rates. So he does seem to be a better all-around hitter now,

even if nobody's counting on him to hit 50 home runs again. It might not be outside of the realm of possibility, you know, if he's still hitting the ball as hard as he ever has. I think the past injury risk and the fact that he somehow, with a 3.73 on-base percentage, scored only 89 runs, drove in less than 100 as well. That's weird. I don't care what lineup you're in.

That's weird to produce the stat line. Judge did and to finish with only 98 RBI 89 runs scored. Strikes me as a fluke. If he stays healthy next year in the same lineup, I don't expect those to be as low again. So I guess I'm pretty high on Judge going into next year. It's just him, Teoscar Hernandez, Jordan Alvarez, George Springer.

I think they have a lot of the same pros and cons, and deciding between them, that's going to be tricky. I rank Aaron Judge for next year the front of that group, which again was Judge, Jordan Alvarez, Teosker, Hernandez, George Springer, but they're all in a row there. They'll all probably go on like the third, fourth round range. and, you know, am I going to be so eager to draft judge that I'll be at the front of the procession taking him ahead of any of those other guys? Probably not.

But he is my favorite of that group. And a common theme amongst those four players specifically is they've all dealt with injuries to a certain extent in the past. So that's something he needs to factor in as well. George Springer getting up there in age a little bit and dealt with more injuries this past season. I think, man, he's probably the one that I'm worried about most just because of where he's at. He's the one I rank the lowest. Yeah, I think that makes sense too.

Before we hit the break, I want to remind everyone Saturday on CBS, it's a college football doubleheader beginning at noon Eastern with two armed forces meeting in the commanders, classic when Army takes on Air Force. Then at 3 Eastern State Farm College Football today catches you up on all the day's action, leading up to the SEC on CBS when 12th ranked Auburn meets 13th ranked Texas A&M, a college football doubleheader this Saturday on CBS.

And just wanted to give everyone a heads up that our second FBT and FBT and 5 podcast will be that are released later this week on Thursday. They won't be in your feet in the morning like they normally are. They're going to have to, we're going to record in the afternoon Thursday, so they're going to come out sometime, you know, 4, 5, 6 p.m., something like that. So just a heads up. Sorry for the inconvenience for that. And notice the hat that I'm wearing here, Scott?

This is a nice little fantasy baseball today hat that I am wearing. And anyone else who's watching, or even if you're listening, if you want to get some fantasy baseball today merch, some fantasy football today merch, you can go to store.cbsports.com to get your very own hat, shirt, they have hoodies, they have sweatpants, they have glasses, they have all different kinds of things. I like it. Yes. I like it.

Add that to my Christmas list because I can't get them. for free apparently. But no, I couldn't tell what it was because I got you, you're just a tiny thumbnail on my screen. It looked like a Buffalo Bills hat from where I'm sitting. I would not be wearing a Buffalo Bills hat. I'm a Jess fan.

They stink. I realize that awesome win this past week, by the way. But yeah, I would not be wearing a Bills hat. Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll talk about the rest of the top 20 or so at the position, and then we'll talk about Mookiee Betts and Christian Yelich and Cody Bunger a little bit later on here on Fantasy Baseball today.

All right, number nine at the position, was Starling Marte. He hit 308 with 12 homers. He led all of baseball with 47 steals. And he did that in just 120 games. That is an insane rate of stealing bases for Starling Marte. I don't want to overreact. I think he's still going to be a very good player, very productive player, Scott. But another one who's dealt with injuries. He's 33 years old. He's coming off of a, some might call it a career year. And he does it in a contract year. So we'll see where he winds up, but I don't want to overreact too much to the season. Yeah, well, it's certainly a career year for the number of steals he had.

It equal to career high, but it was more of an outlier than it was the last time he had 47 steals back in 2016. And in fact, Starling Marte and Whitmery Field were the only two players in the league who had even 35 steals, much less 40, much less 47 in Starling Marte's case. So clearly a big benefit in the most sought-after category. But can you guarantee, can I sit here and guarantee to you he'll do that again next year? No, I can't because that's not what he's, it hasn't been quite that good with this deals year after year. And his power, you know, it isn't even the same as a couple years ago when he was a 23 homer guy for the pirates.

He's a free agent. We don't know where he's going. he's 33. He's had some health issues in recent years. Because he was an outlier and such an outlier in stolen bases this past year and is certain to give you a sizable total in that category, no matter what it is,

can't see him really slipping past round three in roto leagues. It'll be easier to let him slide in points leagues, even though I'll point out he averaged 3.77, head-to-head points per game this past year, which among the outfielders we've talked about so far, only behind Harper and Soto. So the year he had, which certainly made him productive in points leagues as well,

but because you don't have to roll the dice for stolen bases specifically in that format, it's probably going to slide a little bit. I think when it's all said and done, we'd probably see a similar valuation between Cedric Mullins and Starling-Marté. they do things a little bit differently. There's some trade-off for Mullins.

I think you're going to get less batting average, probably a little bit more pop, but obviously the opposite for someone like Starling Marte. And again, I do want to see where he winds up in free agency. So I think that could obviously determine some of Starling Marte's value. Number 10 at the position was Tyler O'Neill, another massive breakout this past season. 286 batting average, 34 home runs, 89 runs scored 15 steals, and his ADP before the year,

353.8. finally reached that potential. He still is just 26 years old. A freak athlete, 97th percentile in barrel rate, 98th percentile in sprint speed. If you've ever seen Tyler O'Neill, you know that he is built like in Adonnas. He's super powerful.

He is super, super fast. The problem, he strikes out quite a bit, Scott. So I have a feeling I know how you might feel about Tyler O'Neill. How do you actually feel? Well, I don't know exactly how to feel about Tyler O'Neill. to be honest, because, I mean, you could strike out more than 30% of the time if you're impacting the ball the way like an Aaron judge does. And, okay, O'Neill's not exactly as high as judge in that regard, but he's pretty close.

He was 93rd percentile and hard hit rate, 94th percentile, an average exit velocity. Statcast loved him in spite of the strikeout rate, 274XBA, 570x slug. his season long numbers were about in line with that. So, you know, obviously striking out that much presents

a higher margin for error, but I'm not really seeing much reason to dismiss Tyler O'Neill. I mean, the biggest issue for him was the Cardinals just never gave him much of a chance. And he didn't make, for the most part, he didn't make good on the chance.

he got, right? So it's kind of a two-way street there. But, you know, definition of a post-hype sleeper this past year, because I think people had just given up on him ever transforming into an impact player in fantasy. And lo and behold, he did. And in a way that I think is mostly sustainable. So I don't rank him next year as high as he finished, 10th at the position. But, I'm really high. I'm 23rd. All right. Yeah.

I mean, I think I want to see that he could say healthy too. He played 138 games his past season, which is a pretty good amount, but that was his most by far. And again, he's bounced between the minors and the majors, but he's dealt with some stuff before, too. Yeah, I don't know that was all health,

but yeah, it wasn't all health. Yeah, yeah, it wasn't all health. But I, yeah, I do want to see that that he can do it over to the course of a full season. We kind of have a Teasca Hernandez kind of thing going with Tyler O'Neal where if he just cuts down the strikeout rate by like three to five percentage points,

we could see an even better season, like maybe 40 homers and 15 plus steals, something like that from Tyler O'Neill. Number 11 at the position was Kyle Tucker, 294 batting average, 30 homers, 92 RBI, and 14 steals. This dude is an absolute stud, Scott. And I know that obviously you've watched a lot of him

throughout the postseason two. He just gets it, man. You watch him, his approach at the plate. I mean, he's super aggressive in the playoffs so far, like early in the count, but he can hit righties, lefties, he has power, speed. He got it to an awful start in April, but from May 1st on, a 986 OPS that was third among qualified hitters.

Kyle Tucker's awesome, man. And if that's someone where if he goes in the second round, I'll be all right actually investing that high of a pick on him. So my favorite two stats for Kyle Tucker probably, I would say, and I'm just deciding this on the spot. But he hit 181 with a 610 OPE. in April back when, you know, April was a miserable month for hitting as a whole. Everybody sucked in April, including Kyle Tucker.

So from May 1st forward, Kyle Tucker ended up hitting 320 with a 986 OPS. He also had 12 of his steals in those final five months. So he was just, yeah, he was a first round caliber bat for the final five months of the season, I would say. And then the other stat I love for Kyle Tucker is he struck out only 16% at the time. You don't see that much from a power hitter, especially not one this young. I didn't think he had it in him, to be honest. It really changes my perception of just how good it could be making contact at that rate. So I'm sure we'll see him drafted in the first round of some 5x5 leagues,

just because he's a guy who can steal bases and do other things. to me he belongs more in the second round but that's still that still tells you just how how much he's improved this year yeah he looks like a stud he looks like a stud for a long time to come yeah for sure number 12 with the position was

Mitch Hanninger 253 batting average 39 homers 110 runs 100 RBI and he's dealt with so many injuries the past couple of years he had a few surgeries since 2019 basically, but he finally managed to stay on the field. He played 157 games and reminds us of the talent that he possesses. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard,

but expected numbers basically line up with the actual numbers. Where are you at on Mitch Hanigar? So I'm not really sure where I'm at Mitch Hanigar because he missed so much time, and he kind of came back a different player. He was a more disciplined hitter before he got hurt. but he hit for a lot more power coming back, nearly a 40 homer season,

despite playing in the toughest division for hitters. So I'm not really sure what I should really take at face value there because it was so different from what we've seen before. I think that's probably the high mark for him in terms of power. and if he can't repeat that year after year, is there enough else to get excited about, really? I mean, obviously, he's going to be drafted as a starter in every fantasy league, but is he more like a number two, number three guy or borderline number one, number two guy?

And I think it's probably the latter. I have Mitch Hanigur. It's my 26th outfielder going into next season. Yeah, I think that sounds about right. Again, at least with other power hitters, you can lean on the, how hard they hit the ball or, you know, their stat cast numbers. And again, like, Hanaker, he doesn't really stand out there. But I think he is a very talented player.

But I'm probably more in line with where you have him ranked as of now. Number 13 at the position was Whitmerfield. And we talked about him on the second base podcast. He played exactly 20 games in the outfield this past year. So he will have outfield eligibility in 2022. Brandon Lau was 14th at the position. He will not have outfield eligibility next year. season, he only played 16 games at the position, and we talked about him on the second base

podcast as well. So let's move on to number 15. And that was Yerdon Alvarez, 278 batting average, 33 homers, 92 runs, 104 RBI. No knees, no problem. But seriously, his offseason knee surgeries, they worked. He looked great all year. He got to play, you know, I think it was like 30 games in the outfield. He legged out a triple in the world series. He's been running around. He's making plays. As of now, I don't really have many concerns over the knees, although, you know, obviously, needs are very important. So you never just completely forget about it. But yeah, it's got just a professional hitter, lots of line drives. He can hit both lefties and righties. He goes to all fields. Still just 24 years old. I don't think that we've seen the best

of Yurton Alvarez yet. I don't think we have either, given how young he, well, hang on. I should take that back. I do think we've seen the best of Yord now. for us because it seems unlikely he's ever going to be able to top that rookie season, which, you know, was only two-thirds of a season, half a season, really, more like 2019 when he hit 313 with the 1067 OPS, 27 home runs and 87 games. I mean, that's, it's going to be difficult for him to meet those numbers. And this past year showed how difficult it is to meet those numbers because they were considerably down from there, 877 OPS, 27. 77 batting average. You know, still great numbers. He had 33 homers, drove in 104 runs, scored 92. Definitely an early round bat, but is he going to be a first round caliber bat? Like, he looked like he might be coming up.

It's tough to say that. It's tough to say that. So I have him right there, as I mentioned earlier with Aaron Judge, with George Springer. I think those three are very similar, and they come with similar risks. more power focus than anything else, but capable of hitting for at least a respectable batting average as well. And I guess that's about all I have to say about that. All right.

Well, let's move on to, we've got 16 through 25. Let's move a little bit quicker through the, Scott, so we could talk about those three big names that struggled this past season. But number 16 was Brian Reynolds, and he hit 302, 24 homers, 93 runs, 90 RBI, 5 steals, another huge profit, you know, in the mold of a Cedric Mullins of a Tyler O'Neill. His preseason ADP was outside of the top 300.

Really good play discipline. Hits a lot of line drives. And I think he proved that 2020, that short in season was an aberration. And this is probably maybe not exactly who the player, exactly the player he is, but I think closer to the player he is, obviously than 2020 was. Yeah, so he's a really difficult one to rank because, you know, basically we saw him do this in 2019 and then he did it in 2021

okay obviously the 2020 season there stands it's the one that's not like the others right so it's the one I feel like we can write off great live drive hitter low strikeout rate you expect a high babb you expect a high batting average the power him hitting 24 home runs in 159 games

that's great he scored 93 rounds drove in 90 and a pirates lineup you know That's really good too. But not much of a base stealer and having only that 20 to 25 Homer Power versus 30 plus, at least based on what we've seen so far, and the underlying numbers would seem to support him having that power ceiling. You know, I think he's going to slide in five-by-five leagues,

and I think you're going to want to let him fall to you rather than reach for. him. I think Brian Reynolds is great. I think he seems like exactly the sort of player that's going to get undervalued in that format. But that's why, because he doesn't seem to have quite the power ceiling of some of these other guys. Yeah. And he probably is just in a vacuum, better in a points league. Really good play discipline. Yeah. 11.6% walk rate, 18.4% K rate. So walks quite a bit and makes a good amount of contact. Again, that is Brian Reynolds. Number 17 at the position, J.D. Martinez. He will have outfield eligibility next season. 286 batting. average 28 homers, 92 runs, 99 RBI.

Another one proving that these short in 2020 was more of a fluke. But also, who is the real J.D. Martinez at this point? Because he had an awesome April, the only hitter who was awesome in April. 351 batting average, nine homers, and 1169 OPS. From May 1st on, 273 batting average, 805 OPS. It's a good player. It's not a great player. He's 34 years old. He's getting up there in age.

Scott, who is a real J.D. Martinez? I wish I could say for sure. I'm definitely concerned about the way he performed from May through the end of the season because he is 34 years old now. And yet, in terms of how hard he impacted the ball, what his expected numbers look like on stat cast, very much in line with what we saw in previous years, in 2019 especially.

So you don't really see the age reflected in that The same way you do in the base numbers And so I wonder What I wonder what to make of it But you know I'm being a I'm ranking him a little more cautiously I have him as my 20th outfielder going into next season I do have him ahead of Brian Reynolds But that was a very close call between those two

All right let's move on to number 18 Randy a Rosa Raina Coming off that historic postseason run last year. Hits 274, 20 homers, 94 run scored, 20 steals. 2020, seems like it might have been a little bit underwhelming, but his ADP was 58.2.

He finishes the 50th overall player in 5x5 Roto. He definitely takes a step back in points leagues because he doesn't walk all that much. Actually, I think his walk rate might be okay, but he strikes out a lot, like a near 30% strikeout rate. Crushes lefties,

he's okay against righties. What do you think, Scott? I think you can only rank him so low because of that power speed combo. Obviously, you can rank them lower in points for the reason you mentioned, but if you're talking about traditional five-by-five league, you know, I have him 27th right after Mitch Haniguer. I think it was a little underwhelming overall after that crazy postseason performance and really finished the regular season as well in 2020.

But, I mean, his expected baddesty, average was 216, is expected, back to his expected slugging percentage, 358. Obviously, he outperformed those marks significantly. Those are, yeah, like, those are awful.

Yeah. Real bad. Yeah, it does, it does suggest that, um, he's, it does suggest that the floor is much lower than we saw. I also,

because of that, he kind of has like this Javier Baez vibes, Scott, where yeah, I kind of think that, just because of the athlete that he is, he's going to be able to outperform these expected numbers.

But, you know, if the strikeouts get out of control and, you know, he still hits a good amount of ground balls. Yeah. Then, you know, maybe we do see that,

that very low floor for Randy or Rosarena. But he is a great athlete, so there's a chance that he could just overcome all of those numbers. Yeah, there is. I'm not, to be clear, I'm not projecting a 216 batting

average for 350. Right, right. Slugging for him next year. but that like you don't there aren't many hitters who under perform or who outperform those marks like arrows by as much as aeros arena did this past year who I want to see I know the steamer projections are out I think you know maybe the prudent thing to do is project more like a 250 to 260 hitter rather than the 274 that he just hit yeah so steamer has a rosarina 257 batting average 25 homers 19 steals power Might be a little bit optimistic there, but yeah, probably closer to like a 260 hitter, I would say.

Adoli's Garcia finished 19th at the position, 243 batting average, 31 homers, 90 RBI, 16 steals. He did not have a preseason ADP, so really genuinely came out of nowhere. But strikes out a lot, doesn't walk very much. He was great in April and May. He had a 667 OPS from June on. I'm not, yeah, I'm not going to be very excited. about Adelaus Garcia for next year. I'm not either,

but he did hit 31 homers and steal 16 bases. He did? And so you have to respect that. You have to respect that when you're approaching him in drafts next year, particularly those 5 by 5 leagues. He's another guy who you can downgrade quite a bit in points leagues because you don't have to sell out so hard for stolen bases. but there's usually a reason why

if a guy's making noise as a 28 year old rookie there's usually reason why he was held back for that long and his plate discipline is pretty awful I think on a rebuilding club like the Rangers they'll get plenty of chances but it could be ugly at times so I rank him let's see in Roto leagues I have Adolice Garcia

gosh I got a scroredo scroll down quite a bit. 40 nice. Ooh. That sounds about right though. I'm making noises like I would disagree with it, but no, I think that probably sounds about right. So just to put that in context, I have them between Adam Duval and A.J. Pollock.

Well, it's funny you bring up Adam Duval because 20th through 22nd in the outfield position this past year. I'm just going to lump these three together and you can talk about them, Scotty. They're all power sources at this point in their career. and they're kind of at different points of their career. But Hunter Renfro hit 259 with 31 home runs. Adam Duval hit 228 with 38 home runs, 113 RBI. Duval has 54 home runs since the start of 2020.

That is the fourth most in all of baseball. John Carlos Stanton will have outfield eligibility next year. He finishes 22nd at the position. 273 banding average, 35 homers, 97 RBI. His 139 games were the most that he has played since 2018. 18 rather. So lots of power here, Scott. Renfro, Duval, Stanton. Yeah, I mean, Stan's obviously my favorite. And he was, he kind of had the same issue as Aaron Judge that even though he reached base of that

354 clip, he scored only 64 runs. No idea how that happens. But he had a great season otherwise. But that obviously pushed him down the rank. He's quite a bit. still impacts the ball as hard as anyone. And no reason to think his skills have diminished in a meaningful way. So I have him, I actually have him a spot ahead of Hanager. He's my 25th outfielder for next season. The others, I'm not terribly high on any of them. Chris Bryant is ranked the highest, but you're mostly drafting him for the third base eligibility.

It's kind of a boring player at this stage. of his career. Ryan Mountcastle and Jared Walsh, well, they're not going to have, oh, Walsh won't have outfield eligibility, yeah. Mount Castle, you're kind of drafting for the first base eligibility more likely. Yeah, than starting him in the outfield.

But he's ranked quite a bit lower than both Stan and Bryant for me, just because, yeah, was only one-dimensional in this rookie season with the power, and I'm not even sure how reliable. that dimension is for him. All right. Yeah.

Again, so 20 through 22, Renfro Duval Stanton, 23 through 25 at the outfield position this past year. Jared Walsh, who will not have the outfield eligibility, Ryan Mouncastle, who will have it, and then Chris Bryant, who will have it as well. You can hear more about Walsh and Mountcastle on our first base podcast, and you could hear Chris Bryant on our third base podcast. Not, you won't hear Chris Bryant on the podcast.

We didn't have them on. We spoke about Chris Bryant on that podcast. Too bad indeed. Also a free agent. Let's see where he lands. What went wrong? Three names drafted inside of the top 15. All let us down.

And obviously, look, Yelich and Bellinger were like in a class of their own. I don't, it's not even fair that I'm lumping them in the same conversation as Mookie Betts. But Mookie Betts let us down. His ADP was three overall. He was an early first round pick. He finishes the 82nd overall player.

Still hit 23 homers, 10 steals. He was bothered by a hip injury for most of the season. and Scott, I think that's, you know, that's a common theme here. Yelich lingering back injury. Bellinger had shoulder surgery last offseason. It seems like never got anywhere close to the player that we've seen in the past, the MVP type player. So, like, what do we do?

What do we do with Mookie Betts, Yelich, and Cody Bellinger? Well, Mookie Betts, I think, is the least concerning. Yep. It's obvious his struggles, if you could even call them that, were tied to his hip issue, having bone spurs in his hip, and he's supposed to get that operated on in the offseason. And so he, in theory, should come back as good as new next year. And he's still on the right side of 30.

So, you know, I don't think there's any reason to read regression into his season, read decline, I guess I should say, into his season. I do worry that particularly after a year in which he had some trouble staying on the field, I do worry that maybe the Dodgers won't ask him to run as much as he's been asked to previously in his career. And if you lose the steals output from Mookie Betts, I think he's pretty clearly not a first rounder. And in fact, I don't have him going in my first round next year. I'm going right at the start of the third round, partly because of that fear. that's really my one concern with him.

And he's just, there are just other players who deserve to be in that same discussion that he used to be in. Yelich and Bellinger. So I have them both ranked at the very end of my top 30 among outfielder's next season. Worth noting Bellinger is going to be outfield only to begin next season. I don't have first base eligibility anymore. I do have a little more optimism for Bellinger, even though he was completely useless this year.

Right? Yelage wasn't good, but he was at least usable at times, right? Bellinger was just completely useless, and the Dodgers ended up removing him from the lineup, at least on an everyday basis towards the end of the season. But he had some big moments in the playoffs to kind of remind you just how good he can be. And I think between the issue with the shoulder, between some questionable, mechanical adjustments he made he's just he's just gotten lost

at the plate and I think he can be found again you know like I think he could lock it in and come back next year and be an MVP caliber bat and a great value for your team and whatever probably worth the risk

toward the end of the top 30 outfielders I'm less sure about because of the back issue I mean that that's a thing that can really stick with a guy over the course of his career and I remember at one point I had that concern for Carlos Correa

as well fortunately it hasn't played out that way for him it's also a few years younger than Yelich is now but I think back to a guy like Todd Hilton who just he developed back issues in the middle of his career and wasn't much of a power hitter really

ever again so I hope that's not the case for Yelich but you know last year we were giving him a pass because it was a short season and the strikeout rate was way up for some reason and it's just kind of weird all the way around.

Strikeouts weren't nearly as bad this year and yet the production was still awful. So it's concerning. On a positive note, he still impacted the ball really well. Not as good as in his MVP or MVP runner-up seasons, but it was still hard content. It was still high exit velocity, high hard hit rate. And that gives me some hope, but if he's doing that, then why is the production not following?

And I don't have an answer for that. The batted ball date is a little bit tough because he always was among the league leaders in how hard he would hit the ball, how hard he would impact the ball. And, I mean, for example, even in the short season, he had a 94 mile per hour average exit velocity and then coming into this year, they said because of the change in the baseball that you were going to see inflated batted ball numbers, but that it wouldn't really mean as much. So he went from 94 last year to 91 miles per hour this year. And 91 is still a very good mark, but I mean, that's the thing. It's a good mark independently, but compared to the rest of his

career, it's a big drop and it's even bigger than it appears because of the ball change, like you're saying. Yeah. And I look at the hard hit rate, 48.8%. I mean, that's great in a vacuum. But, you know, he was over 50% in his best seasons. So, you know, part of this, too, is that his launch angle was way down again, which was a problem for him in his Marlins days. You could see the impact, the kind of impact he was making.

And it seemed like he had more potential than what he was delivering. Yeah. And then he improved his launch. angle during his time with the Brewers, it was back down last year. But even in those years with the Marlins, when he was putting the ball on the ground too much, he was still hitting well.

He just wasn't hitting for much power. And this year he wasn't hitting well in any regard. So maybe between the reduction in exit velocity and the reduction of launch angle, it just kind of made for a worst case scenario. But even if you accept, that premise, that still changes whatever the upside is, hypothetically, if that makes sense. Yeah.

So I don't know. I'm not really counting on Yelich being a high-end contributor in fantasy. I always want to leave open the possibility. But it seems like a long shot at this point. I think he's a player. You need to watch in spring training. And we have to see something. We have to see some kind of glimmer of the player he used to be.

in order to give us some kind of confidence because like it's just, it's tough right now. Nine homers, nine steals, a 736 OPS this past season. I mean, that's a league average bat. It's just, you know, I don't know where the ADP is going to settle in for them. And I think partially what you said

about the launch angle being down could be blamed on a back injury too. Like we've seen that before where, all right, someone, you know, they're dealing with back injury, all of a sudden they can't get any loft on the ball. So it definitely could be the reason for that, but yeah, I think, you know, if I'm going to do some very early drafts

because I'm just, I'm crazy, whatever. I'm going to do some drafts in like November and December. I'm not going to draft Yelich until I see him in spring training and I see something. I need to see something out of him. So we're going to wrap there. That is our outfield recap. And again, next time we will take a look at Scott's top 30 outfield rankings and talk about some players we didn't talk about today.

Mike Trout, he wasn't even on this list. We will talk about him the next time that we are here. So for Scottie, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy Baseball today will be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.