Fantasy Baseball Today - 2021 Prospects and Dynasty Talk with The Welsh! (1/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 4, 2021

Scott White is back! But now Frank is gone. Scott is joined by Chris Welsh aka The Welsh to dive further into some of the top prospects for the 2021 season and beyond. The guys also evaluate some players from a dynasty perspective. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, at the wall, grand slam. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. This is Scott White. You know me, of course. though it's been a little while since you've heard from me. Took a couple weeks off, a little vacay for Christmas sometime with the family. It was good, it was good. You're not used to me hosting.

I don't do that very much, but that's because Frank's now taking some time off. Only a week. He deserves more, but we're giving him the week, and he'll be back. We're coming at you now with three shows this week. We'll be doing three a week for a while,

and then we'll keep increasing it up until the start of the season. I'm not alone, though. I'm joined by somebody else that you haven't heard in a while, even longer. And who is it? Is it the Welsh? Yes, it's the Welsh. It's Chris Welsh. Here, host of Prospect One podcast, the Prospect One podcast, host of the End This League podcast, and briefly host of this podcast, Fantasy Baseball today. Chris Welsh, welcome back to the Welsh. What's up, Scott? I love that. that almost everything you just said ended with like a question. I like it's like I was laughing when you started up you're like maybe have somebody else and you're like prospect one like everything

was with a question like my Twitter handle so I appreciate that and shout out to that Christmas tree that's still behind you too. Ah yes yes my wife was not so anxious to take down the decorations so we're all just living with them for a while including everybody watching on YouTube. Everyone watching on YouTube You can also check out this nice shirt I'm wearing. It's the rated rookie shirt. You see it, Chris? That's very nice. I like it.

From the old Don Russ trading cards. Raided rookie. I'm a rated rookie. We're going to be talking about prospects. That's why we have Chris Welsh here, host of the, what is it? The prospect one? Prospect one. I'm Ron Burgundy.

Yeah, right. Yeah, the N this league shows and most apt here for everybody is the prospect. one podcast, a fantasy prospect podcast that I've been doing for three years. And I took a kind of a week or two off and I'm kind of back in the fray of everything. And it's kind of goes through the entire landscape of prospects, whether it's dynasty, real world value. I live in Arizona. So, you know, when humans can be around other humans and baseball is actually happening where the public can go, I can go and check out a lot of these guys in person, build relationships and just get intangibles, Scott. There's intangibles.

Ooh, intangibles. Maybe something we'll talk about a little bit later. We are planning on talking about intangibles if I pace this properly. That is part of the host job. Well, if you base it, if I am succinct in the things that I say, because I am long-winded, and you and I can get into tangents, and this isn't necessarily the tangity place, and I love tangents. Yeah.

Well, you can get long-winded because you do a lot of prospect reasons. You do actual scouting. You live in Arizona. you see a lot of these players up close and personal. I do prospect rankings. I've done them for years. I do a top 100 prospects. I'm more of a prospect aggregator where I go and review everybody's list on the internet,

a lot of baseball America, a lot of MLB.com, really anybody, anywhere that I can find prospect information about. I read up on it. I take it in. I mix it up in a way that makes sense to people who play fantasy. and then I turn out my own list based on that. You're a great analyst. You're a great analyst. You're like the ATC projections of prospects in your aggregation.

But you're good. And I think that's what's really important. And that was something that when I started a prospect one, I wanted to differentiate because there are so many great outlets for prospect stuff. But the problem is, and you know this firsthand, is so many people would translate trying to learn prospects through baseball America or through MLB pipeline or something like that. And B.A. has made some adjustments to do more fantasy, but they're not.

They're real world baseball stuff. And it does not full translate. I remember episode one of Prospect One, I had Jonathan Mayo on. And like, Ahmed Rizario was like top four or something on their list. And I was having this conversation. I was trying to ask John, I'm like, can you confirm for me if you were thinking from a pure offensive standpoint, Rosario would not be remotely close to this? And he's like, yeah, he'd probably be outside the top 20. So that's the type of stuff that you've got to do.

so people like you, you do a great job with it. I've always enjoyed talking with you about this stuff. And I try to do the same thing. There have to be people that can decipher through and not just talk, you know, 80 scales and stuff like that. You have to be able to translate into fantasy the proper risk reward, who's got those intangibles, all that type of stuff. So you do a job at it is what I'm trying to say. Thank you. You do a good job too.

That's why you're here. All right. We're going to get into it here. We're going to talk about prospects, like I said. We're going to talk about some of the prospects who've been in the news lately. not so much for what they've done, but for just their proximity to other major happenings,

specifically three trades, major trades, three of the biggest moves of the off-season so far that happened while I was gone. Trades involving U. Darvish, Blake Snell, Josh Bell, prospect returns for each of them.

Prospect returns that the baseball analysis community at large seemed to think were pretty light for these three. I'm not so sure the Blake Snell return was light. I think that was actually pretty decent, especially given Blake Snell. There are some questions surrounding him

and his durability, his ability to pitch like a true starting pitcher. But Darvish and especially Josh Bell, I mean, what do you make of what those teams got back for those three players? Yeah, I mean, I think, I mean, you're being very PC about it and very nice about it because it's understating

like the level of anger that went all with all the trades. And the Josh Bell one was the worst of all of them. That was, you know, that was simply opening up roster spots, not fitting on the team, getting him out of here. It also shows you what the market is. That's always a funny thing that I get with any of these trades is you look and we all get up in arms and everyone's like, you know, fire and pitchforks. Oh, look at this trade. It's ridiculous. But then also realizing, that's the market, guys. The market for Josh Bell was so bad in openings that you could only get Will Crow and Eddie Yeen. That was it. And it's bad return. It's a really bad

return for a guy who set the set the baseball world on fire for half of a year. I know it was half of a year, but it was not less than two years ago. And Will Crow and Yeen are okay. You know, Crow is very much closer. I think he's a bullpen guy, ultimately. Eddie Yeen is someone to, to dream on a little bit, but just never, you know,

jumped off any radars, wasn't high on prospect list. I think he's right under 20 years old. Got a big fast. Unremarkable, unremarkable is what I'd say about those two pitching prospects. And considering, I don't know what to make because Josh Bell, it's not like this was a salary dump. He's making less than $5 million. That's not the Darvish trade.

It's not anything like the Darvish trade. I think, you know, this is what I worry about. And I had a really difficult time with this and you tell me was when I look at this, I go, man, okay, great opportunity. Let's get Josh Bell out of Pittsburgh. Let's get him around this organization. You know, Trey Turner hitting in front of him. I like some of the possibilities on it. But is this an indemnification of the player that he started to become?

I mean, he has been stacking on some pretty poor performances, a bad second half of 2019, a bad short in 2020. You know, we're all dealing with the, what can we truly make out of 2020? Do we buy in completely? Do, you know,

is every player who underperform going to be great? Is every player that overperformed real or, you know, so we have this battle of going through all those, but a guy like Josh Bell, not a 2020, a bad end to 2019 and traded for practically nothing. Is a change of the scenery just enough for it? So I ended up not moving him at all in like anything.

Even though I like the destination more, I really think we have a wait and see situation because everything fell apart. This reeks of him being more of this like opportunist at that 2019 start than anything else because he really hasn't performed remotely close to this in any step. And I want to be cautiously optimistic, but I got him post 100 pretty further back than that, to be honest with you. I like the new destination. but I'm not super hopeful. And that's why he's not like a startable 12-man first baseman, even though the spots better. I mean,

the pirates clearly sold low. And if they were willing to sell low on a guy that was costing in less than $5 million as few assets as they have, I mean, that's, he did say after the trade, I mean, he blamed the easy things to blame. He blamed, you know,

not the typical buildup to the season. He didn't have typical access to video. So a swing got long and whatever. And, you know, first baseman, obviously, power hitting first baseman. they're pretty easy to find for cheap but this was still I'd also say I'd also throw into you and let me get your take on this like the pirates evaluation at least maybe in the player development standpoint where they

make moves it's it's not glowing so there's also that that's like what's in my back of my brain too it's like Chris Archer you know the Chris Archer trade Austin Met you know like the things that they've done have been silly and the way that they've also put you know they push back a lot of prospects the way they brought guys up to develop them I don't know. The player development across the board is a major question to me. It felt like very hand-washing. Like, in the real world, not when we're talking fantasy,

sometimes you need a new scenery, a new destination. And that's what it was. And they wanted to give it to Colin Moran. And they had no room for him left. Meanwhile, Darvish, he is making a lot of money, but he almost won the Cy Young this past year, second to Trevor Bauer and the Padres were able to get him. They did give up Zach Davies.

Oh, no. I mean, I feel like Zach. Davey's he lost fantasy value in this deal and he you know fantasy wise for 2021 his was the only value that really changed and I think so just because it doesn't look like the Cubs are going to be competing that hard so my only argument might be like Davies I think was the first chopping block type of guy in that rotation um with the Padres that he very well likely could have moved into a bullpen roll where with the Cubs seems like he's locked into a rotation the full year through so I get that's a good point.

To the prospects, though. Did the Cubs get anyone in this deal that you think is really going to make an impact here in the foreseeable future? In the foreseeable future, no. That was not anything that they did. This one was a surprising one. And then there's a little bit of like having the Snell trade there as a balance, you know, and being able to compare the two, it's like wildly different and how much better the Padres trade looks, or at least what the Tampa Bay return was,

than what the Cubs got because there's a big salary issue, I think that was with this 34 years old. Original presciado is the guy that I would really be in on. He's a big tall, lengthy shortstop. He actually, his body type looks a lot like O'Neo Cruz right now. He just hasn't, he has not filled out whatsoever. I'm assuming he's probably going to move eventually to some type of an outfield spot, but they'll keep him there.

Still learning pitch recognition, big power, which is nice. He's the guy that they bought on it. And you know what? I liken this to this trade I likened to the one with David Price years and years ago back with the Willie Adomis. Remember when they traded David Price and everyone was like, what did the raise? What did we get for David Price? And it was Willie Adomas. And no one had really heard of him. And Willi Adomas was that, you know, low A guy that, you know, future dreams on. Did it pan out? Not really. But he got to the majors. He's a starting caliber shortstop. But yeah. He's there. And we pretend to like him every year for a little period of time. But Presiata, um, Presia. would have been one of those guys that would have probably played in the AZL, which is the rookie ball league that's out here in Arizona. They call it the Fire League. He would have played this past year if there was something. So he'll probably play this coming year. Maybe he would have, um, it's always tough with some of those international guys. That's the big get. Owen Casey is

also someone that the Padre is drafted this year. He's a Canadian outfielder, big power. I don't know where the hit tools really going to develop to. So what I, what I've said is the Cubs did a really good job being able to scout the lower levels of the Padres. The Padres obviously said, hey, listen, you're not getting, you know, we all dream. When Darvish was going to go to the Padres, we're all like, all right, so they're going to get Abrams and who, you know, they're going to get Gore and who. They didn't get it, they're getting remotely close to that. But they did a good job about with scouting the lower levels to find the guys at the pot,

because the Padres are obviously willing to trade from depth, um, that wasn't close to starting. You know, they're not going to trade Robert Hassel or CJ Abrams. And they did a good job scouting. They got, they looked at Mania, they looked at Presiato, Casey, who they just drafted. They bought a bunch of low-in lottery tickets. I don't know how much they're going to cash out. They're like $5 scratchers to me. Presciato might be the $10 scratcher. The others, Mania and Casey, $5. How much can you really win? Not unless you get those $20 or $30 ones.

You're not going to have the big payoff. Reginald Preciato. He's a 17-year-old. Owen Casey. He's an 18-year-old guys who aren't really breaking anyone's top 100 list anytime soon. Well, also, they have no pro ball experience. Of the five people that got traded, you take Davies out here. Santana was the only one that had any pro ball experience. Casey was Canada, just got drafted, Mania and Presciado, both had not stepped and played in the AZL or done anything. So it's a, it's a wild trade for Darvish in that it's so, so far off. And it just doesn't look as good, not remotely close as the snow one. Like you kind of alluded to, like I like the snow one kind

as well. Let's get to the snow one. Because the snow one, uh, they got, I mean, they got one guy who everybody knows. Luis Petino, obviously, he came up for the Padres last year, pitched out of relief. Didn't pitch well, but very young, and they think his futures is a starting pitcher. He's a top 10, I'm sorry, top 20 pitching prospect by virtually any list, I would say. Luis Petino, definitely the biggest prospect that moved between these three deals. And I guess that makes Snell by itself the best return. But Luis Petino wasn't the only good prospect that was traded in this deal, right? I well there's different takes on this so like he's not a prospect anymore but francisco me he was someone

that was involved in this trade and people loved him for a long time i've always been dicey on him he just has never had a real home his bat his regret my guy in this trade though is cole wilcox and i love cole wilcox he was just drafted out of georgia he's got a big fastball he's got a power slider and he's got a change up he's got three pitches collegiantly pitching probably one i mean one of the better arms in the draft, he fell to, I think it was the third round. I think it was the 80th overall pick. And the Padres were able to sneak in and do a big old signing bonus later on and be able to move their cap stuff around. And I was like, this is a steal for them because Wilcox really, I mean, he's got too high invariants.

Like I think he could be a high in SP, you know, a number two on a team with his stuff if it develops properly. And he's collegially got that behind him. But also deliver a little wonky. There's some injury stuff. Might be a relief type of guy. So I haven't decided if I like the move to Tampa Bay because I feel like he fits the mold of a guy Tampa would love. Like, hey, we'll throw him out there two innings and he never gets to push to be a starter. So that wouldn't be great. But I think, and I think I tweeted about this, I think Cole Wilcox like five years down the line, we could look back on this and we're like, oh, that was the big piece out of this. I really like, I think from your head shaking, I think you like Will Cox as well. Yeah, well, it kind of reminds me of how they got Shane Baths from the Pirates and the Chris Archer deal. And like, it's not like, Shane Baz was a prospect.

Wasn't noteworthy in any way, but he was so overshadowed by the Austin Meadows and Tyler Glassnow acquisitions that he kind of just got, like Shane Baz may end up being a huge piece that makes that deal look even worse for the Padres. Did you get the shakes? When you just repeated that,

I was like, oh my God, I forgot it was Meadows and Glassnow and Ba'Bah. It's actually Boz. And Boz in there, it's hard. It's hard to hear that. It's hard to hear that.

But I, I really like the comp too as far as the trade goes because the other one, Blake Hunt, who's a catcher, I've seen him a couple times out here. He's never been overwhelming. But Eric Long & Hagan from Fan Graves made a statement after the trade saying that he would be a top hunt, would be a top 100 prospect on his upcoming years list because of how well he had developed over the time that none of us got to really see anything. Over fall instructional league, he was really, really pounding hit and 400 plus homers out.

this guy, Mason Thompson. This is the video that Eric had tweeted, but Long and Hagen said that Mason Thompson was dropping like 9699 in some of these fall in trucks, and Blake Hunt took one like 430. So the power had got real, better hitter, probably more apt to be a catcher. So that's another one of those underrated guys.

So you look across the board and you're like, they kind of solidified themselves in each spot. If you could reestablish Mejia, that's fantastic. If you don't, you got maybe two guys that are in your rotation. two years from now, and you might have your future catcher if he doesn't work out in Blake Hunt. So that's why it looks so good now. I didn't scoff when they made the trade. I was just like, oh, okay, this is another deal that the Padres were able to do without giving up the top end of their prospects.

They gave up Patino, though. So Luis Patino legit prospected by anybody's estimation. And if you're looking for somebody to kind of project down the line, Cole Wilcox, definitely a name worth knowing. The Padres obviously were on the receiving end of two of these deals. Snell and Darvish, two big pieces added to their rotation. We have a question here from Rich in St. Petersburg, Florida. How do the Snell and Darvish trades affect your thoughts on McKinsey Gore? I'm in a 14-team league league with keepers in a minor league spot.

I have to decide on keeping Gore for a 14th round pick or Kyle Tucker for a 10th round pick. So first, just generally on Gore. I mean, we had seen some reports, or at least I've seen some reports, that, you know, part of the reason he wasn't up contributing to the Padre's playoff run is because he wasn't, he didn't set the world on fire at the alternate training site. That's the impression I got. Did you get that impression too, or do you have a different impression? Yeah, there's a couple things. I think that's in there. Like, they revere McKinsey Gore.

And, you know, I repeat myself and I apologize to people. that listen to me, but like, I have, McKinsey Gore is a defining, he's the Wondie line. I remember Wondie Rodriguez and Wondie line. I define a lot of pitching prospect based on him because I was at his pro debut with the Padres. I followed him the entire AZL as he got in. I really, he was someone I coveted. And I remember me and Jim Callis were just kind of ooing and awing over him. And I got to follow it in the maturity and the command, curveball, fastball, change up.

He could do whatever he want. You know, Nick Ahmed came in rehabbing and he made. Nick looks silly swinging around his whole body on a curveball. And it just, he had all the stuff. Then he's had some splinter issues. And then you could kind of feel McKinsey Gore to me was one of those guys, maybe similar to Michael Kopeck where, you know, the results wouldn't always be there because he's just doing his work.

He's very focused. He's like, McKenzie goes a really intense dude like in person when he's pitching. And he's just doing his job. You know, and the minor league job sometimes is a little bit different than the major league job. And Kopeck is a prime example of that where two years of his final minor league stint. Copac didn't look good. And he was trying to work to develop his off-speed stuff. And then all of a sudden he got to the majors and everyone's like, where does changeup come from? Where's all this command? So that's kind of like my pre-take on McKinsey Gore. I think a little bit of what was going on definitely was maybe him not having a great feel for all the pitches. I also don't think that they were willing whatsoever to bring McKinsey Gore in a situation where he was in relief. And Luis Petino obviously was. So who's the first guy they brought up? Big prospect. They put him in relief. They put a couple of the guys. Adrian Morione was kind of playing a long role and a spot starter.

I don't think that's what they want to do at all with McKinsey Gore. He's going to be a straight starter when he's there. So what do they have to give Luis Bettino? I think they felt they could get more out of in one inning. McKinsey Gore can go deep. He can go deep into games. And he's got three plus pitches with command that I think it's a combo of maybe not lighting up and them feeling he, I don't know what it is, by the way.

I don't know if it was command or an off speed pitch. Maybe he was suffering blisters again because he throws that curve so much. I think it's part of that. And then them not wanting to put him in a role that does not define his future. He is a starter. And I have a little doubt about that. So I'm still a believer. I'm a staunch believer in McKinzegor.

Worth pointing out that his last actual minor league season, 2019 and 20 starts, he had a 169 ERA. 0.83 whip 12Ks per 9. Not bad. Yeah. For somebody who doesn't always. have the results to back it up, as he said. He certainly did in his last minor league season. I still have a lot of faith in him, too. And that trade, too, is really interesting because when I

first read that question, I didn't grasp the points. Because when I saw that, I was like, well, it's Kyle Tucker. I mean, it's still Kyle Tucker and the 10th, Rich, if you're saying a 10th for Tucker or a 14th for Gore, it's still Tucker. But when I saw the points, I was like, oh, yeah, it leans more towards pitchers. Because I looked at this and I was like, Rich, why do you need to ask us this? Oh, because it's points. I see it. But yeah, it's still Kyle Tucker in the down. It's still Tucker. I mean, that's a big discount for a guy who's already proven to be a big major league asset. So yeah, thanks for letting me, thanks for not letting me forget about the second part of that question. It's easy to do. Yeah. Okay, so the Padreys made another big acquisition. I guess it technically counts as a prospect because he's going to be a rookie in the majors this year. And it's on my list. Hassong Kim shortstop out of Korea. A guy, I think he's 25 years old. He's in his mid-20s. He had a near-th 30-30 season in Korea last year. I mean, the numbers, like, my,

might take whenever, I have a hard time judging these prospects, I guess rookies coming over from the Asian leagues, Japan more commonly, but more recently, we've seen a lot from Korea. And of course, the numbers are amazing. They wouldn't be coming to the majors if they didn't. Anytime you see a former major leaguer go over to those leagues,

they pretty much dominate. And if they don't dominate, it means they're washed. And we're not going to be seeing, back in the majors again. So, of course, Kim dominated over there. The fact that he got, I believe, was a four-year deal right away. Yeah, and I think like $6 million. And incentives, by the way.

I believe the incentives can get up to like $30 million on the four-year deal as far as a contract goes. But yeah, I think it's like in the $6.5 million or $6 million or something like that over four years per. So they're making a, the founders are making a pretty, you know, that shows confidence, I think. Yeah. I don't know what to make of them. I don't know what to make of them. Really, you know,

just lumping the Japan and Korean leagues together, the only two guys who've come over from there that I felt really good about, were you Darvish and Shohei Otani. Otani, I guess, hasn't totally panned out yet that we think he's really good. Yeah.

But others, you know, it's been a mixed bag otherwise. How do you think Kim's going to go here? Yeah, this one's really tough for me, just because the one thing that's changed, in my eyes. And you know, you've been on vacation a little bit here, Scott. But I've been scouring

the Twitter and seeing what people were saying is the negativity that's been around him as far in the fantasy community. And I'm so used to everybody getting all hyped up. And I think it's somewhere in there between. I'm impressed because you're right. Like there's a reason that these guys come over. They put up some gaudy numbers. But usually you're going to see them coming over in like the 28, 29, maybe 30 year old age. You know, they really massive. This is a 25 year old who's been in the league, I think six plus years, had a three, four, essentially a three, four, five slash last year, 30, 20, 100 runs, 100 RBIs, walk, I believe walks more than he strikes out. He's been hit power for a couple years, a little bit of a bigger body guy.

I don't see, he's got kind of that KBO power swing, but it's not as pronounced as like a park or anything like that. And I think that's what a lot of people are doing is a lot of people extrapolating. As you're talking about. Yeah, he was a 50 homer guy in Korea. Yeah. And then he came to the majors. and, you know, really, he had some home runs.

That's about all he did. But that's about all that he did. And he was doing it again in the KBO in this past year. Yeah. With Kim, I'm a little bit more, I'm a little bit more like direct in wanting to get my shares on him, especially in Dynasty because I think, you know, his swing and I think, you know, his propensity for hitting for good average is a great sign. A three, four, five guy walks more than he strikes out.

He's still young. Look at the commitment. I'm a buyer on Kim because I don't think he's going. going to be 30, 20 right off the bat or anything like that. But I think the swing plays. The biggest question is going to be how much is he going to be able to truly adjust to how pitchers are going to attack him? Now, the positive thing, at least I've looked at it, is I think the KBO, you're seeing more Americanized baseball come in there. You're seeing more players come in there. And I think that's also why you see some of the commitment. So in a redraft,

am I going to be aggressive about Kim this year? Probably not. You know, I think he could get around the hundreds as far as ADP goes. It is high. He's going around like 190 and NFBC as of right now, but he's second base, which I think is going to be a prime fantasy position for him to tackle, and he's Padre in that offense. The negatives are him being further down.

If he struggled, they could put him in the minor leagues, blah, blah, blah. I think there are struggles ahead because obviously, this is a huge new change, but I think from a skill set standpoint, he checks all of the boxes, the team made the commitment. It's a fantastic team for him to be with. And I love the second base to shortstop move, whatever it is, whatever it possibly could be.

And if there's a DH there, even better. So Dynasty, I'm way more aggressive, way more aggressive on my first year player. I've got him very high. In redraft, if he comes to me, I'm not going to shy away from it because I think he's going to do better regardless of he's hitting seven or eight in that lineup. I want to make that investment. But in Dynasty, is why I'm going to be way, way more aggressive to pull the trigger. So Haasung Kim. What I like about him is you mentioned the play discipline.

Didn't strike out much. That's a very big difference between him and Bionko Park. Absolutely. The speed seems legitimate. He was 23 for 25 in Steeles in 2020. In 2019, he was 33 for 37. So really high success rate there. And guess what? Padres kind of like to run.

They kind of like to run. And speed, of course, is huge in fantasy. And five by five play anyway. Like you need those steals wherever they show up. So it's mostly a question of how the power translates for me. And I've seen some scouting reports that say that that question is bat speed. And obviously that's going to impact how much power he ends up producing on this side of the Pacific. But like just from a prospect standpoint, top 100 list for fantasy.

Where are you slotting Hassankem? Hi. I'm slotting him really high. Top 25? Yeah, top 25. You got it. You got right where I have on him. It's funny that you say that too because one thing I want to point out, I did this on the last Prospect One podcast. I do think it's so funny how people are quick to slam a player that comes from the KVO

and just go, oh, KVO, KBO, KBO, and then be like, well, it's like double A, but yet give a complete pass to a 17-year-old or an 18-year-old. And it's like, this guy has been a professional for a while. Yes, there's a track record. But I think he, this is me, I think he's a bit different. You had Alex Fast on here not too long ago. And Alex did say he's worried about how some of the off-speed stuff is going to affect him.

That's the stuff that we've got to see translate. And that's why it may take a little bit. So to your question, as far as first year player goes, he is in the top four tier. If people should know this by now, but first year player, if you're playing a dynasty, this is your only taking the guys that just got drafted in the last year's draft,

Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, maybe J2 or international. Kim is in the top four tier to me. And I've got him, yeah, top 25, top 30 right in that range. Because here's the one thing. And I can never,

this is why prospect list, there's no certainty across the, board with it. Scott will fail, I will fail, everyone will fail is because every single person that comes in is going to process a list differently. Everybody attacks their dynasty league different. Some it's always chasing the young guys. Some only see prospects as assets. Some only want guys that are going to contribute sooner. So you have to find a way to balance all of that. And part of that balance for me is you have a 25 year old who's going to play second base for the Padres this year with a commitment and some of my thought process. Why?

would I not be in on him high? So I have him, I have him aggressive. And I don't know where you are going to have them on your top 100. But I would say, Scott, you better have them on the top 100. I will. I will. I don't know where either. That's kind of why I'm asking you. We're actually going to get into that. Because I've done my position by position prospect rankings already, which is kind of a preliminary offseason thing I do to get to kind of get a feel for the prospect pool for the upcoming season. I'm going to do my top 100 list. this week. This is the week for it. You're kind of here to help get me started. We're going to get started here in a minute with the top 10. So, you know, we've been kind of long-winded on maybe some names

here that you aren't as familiar with. We're going to get into what a top 10 should look like for prospect rankings entering 20-21. We're going to do that right when we get back on fantasy baseball today. All right, Scott White back with you here with Chris Welsh. We're talking prospects. I'm about to start putting together my top 100 list for 2021. I need your help getting started. Number one, lastings millage. You're good. You're good to go.

We're done. We're done. No, not quite. Now, this is a frustrating exercise because it's like, it's not just good versus bad. It's like you're really having to split hairs here to come up with exactly where players should rank. So, of course, no two lists are going to be identical. And like I said before, Scott, that's the big thing is,

because you can ask me this and I can ask you this and people can ask across the board is, what flavor is the prospect list that you're looking for? Because like I said, people will balance it where it's only about now. And that's okay. You know, my top 10, if you ask me, what's your top 10 for only 20, 21 value? It looks different than my dynasty one. I personally am someone that values the long run and buying in on the guys that can develop not only superstar power, but can develop great height for trade assets.

So, you know, you will see younger guys pop up on my list a little bit more because I'm built a little bit more like that as far as the long haul, but sometimes you don't care. And that's why you as a listener and a consumer have to be able to process lists a little bit differently, whether you're finding the person or being able to kind of identify with some of ours because these guys, a top 10 is not perfect. And it's going to, this one specifically, the top 10 actually is one that you kind of can get away with. Most of the name stands like one or two. are going to be roughly the same in some order. But then when you start moving, it really starts to change, you know, points league. Pitchers are going to come up. And it's just, it's a, it's a wild, wild game. And it is frustrating. And I understand it. And I have a one size fits all top 100.

So that I take the opposite. It sounds like you compared to other people in the industry who I've drafted Dynasty with. They kind of go the same direction with you where they're really into the 17 and 18 year olds that they think have superstar potential. And I'm just like, there's always a new wave of 17. and 18 year olds coming in. I'm picking and choosy though. You say that you are you're not wrong, but I kind of agree with you. I tend to think like my, because I do a top 500 list for Prospect 1, mine is roughly a for all, but there are guys that deserve the push. And, you know, specifically just one thing I would throw to you real quick, something I just did, which is an

interesting exercise and it's just releasing this week. This is kind of a cheap plug, but on Prospect one, I conduct, and I've done it for three years, this thing called, the P180P moks because there's no ADP system for prospects out there for people to process. So I've been doing them over the last couple of years. And I just have the first draft that is just released on our Patreon. And that is a, it's a prime example of how people move in and out of valuations because you will see guys that are closer to the majors, kind of get drafted near the top. Randy Rosarine is a perfect example of people valuing.

But then you're going to start seeing people pick their guys. and the young guys start to boost up, even if they're not deserve it. And that's kind of like my thing is, is enough of my scouting process is about figuring out the guys that I think have that star power. Marco Luciano would be one of those guys that I would give a pass to.

I gave it to Julio Rodriguez a couple years ago. You find those specific players, but people follow that trend, like a lot of the people you probably do mocks with. And then all of a sudden, maybe the guy doesn't have the same star power as Marco Luciano, but then you see the Maximo Acosta, Luis Angelikunya, who's Ronald Kunia's brother, they start coming up.

And you would be shocked at where these guys went in my ADP that I put together because people don't want to miss on the next guy. So it really is finding that happy media. It is. I tend to favor proximity because since it's a one-size-fits-all list, I'm not just catering to the deep dynasty leagues where everybody have deep farm systems. I'm doing any form of keeper leagues to some degree. even, you know, I'm sure single season users are looking at this.

For example, I had Jesus Luzardo ahead of McKinsey Gore and my prospect rankings last year just because he already had a job and we didn't know when Gore was coming up. And I really liked the talent for Luzardo. I felt like it was kind of splitting hairs there with Gore. I might be regretting that now. We'll see. But let's get into it.

Time's wasting. Don't feel like, we're going to try and kind of fly through this because we've got a lot more we want to get to here. If you interject, if you must, but it's not a moment. must. All right. Number one, I have Wander Franco. I think that's simple, straightforward, Ray Shortstop. Probably going to be up early this year. Should be a stud. Number two, I'm going McKinsey Gore there. I like you. I think he's far and away at the best pitching prospect. Agreed. I understand if you're talking a five by five league specifically,

you may not be motivated to put any pitcher this high. I get that. And if he was just another really good pitching prospect, I wouldn't either. But I think he, like you, I think he's obviously going to be a starter. I think he's, I think the chances of him failing are unusually low for a pitcher. And I think the job is, he's already within reach of the job. So I have, only thing I'd interject with on that is I don't think it's not a hot take. Listen, McKenzie Gore is the only pitcher I have inside my top 10. And I think there are a lot of prospect people that do not have a pitcher.

inside their top 10. So I'm not, maybe not even inside their top 20. He's the only one in my eyes that is deserved. And there's a lot of good guys out there. Two sounds very points leaky to me. But again, I'm with you in that he is so clear cut the guy. I understand your logic of like, hey, this guy is also so much better than the next. His valuation has to be near the top.

I just don't have him at two. But I understand the logic. I'm kind of heavier on pitching than people and anyone else in general. So that's, especially me in Dynasty. He will not be the only pitcher in my top 10 here. Number three, I'm guessing this would be your number two. It's Jared Kelnick of the Mariners, who Kelnick is spelled K-E-L-E-N-I-C. And while we're at it, Jared is spelled J-A-R-R-E-D.

Obviously, a lot of spellings of Jared out there. So Jared Kelnick, number three for me, would you have them number two? I don't have them at two, but I have them at three. Okay. Okay. Well, we'll see you have number two here because number four. I have the number one pick from this year's draft, Spencer Torkelson. Love Spencer. Spencer, I have at number four as well. Spencer's one of those guys that I can make an argument for him to be number one. I am one of the biggest Spencer Torkelson fans and proximity and everything across the board. Frankly, I want to put him at number one, to be honest with you. So I absolutely love it. It just feels like the floor is so high and the ceiling's high. It kind of feels like a Chris Bryant level prospect to me in terms of. That's a great comp. That's a really great comp because I totally agree.

The powers through the roof. And I've been around Spencer a little bit. He's a great guy. Good head on his shoulders. The bat, it gets compared to Andrew Vaughn. But I think it's a couple steps ahead. So like I can't be someone that values Vaughn over him. I think Torkelson, I love the idea that you say floor because he is floor in ceiling together.

Yeah. He's just one of my favorite prospects. He really has the least hit and miss, I think, of the top 10, which is wild why he's not number one. could argue. Number five, you just mentioned him. Another high floor guy, another proximity guy, expect him to reach the majors this year. It's Andrew Vaughn. So we still haven't gotten to your number two yet, right? We have not. Number three, we're not. We're still, okay, recapping here, we're number one, Wander Franco, number two, McKenzie Gore, number three, Jared Kellnick,

number four, Spencer Torkelson, number five, Andrew Vaughn. I have a feeling number six isn't going to be your number two either. Number six is Adley Rushman. Of course, the number one pick in 2019. And now, catchers, that's my problem right there. I just want to throw out. Catcher is my problem that he's a catcher. If he was a first baseman, I would have him above Andrew Vaughn in how you rank. And that may sound weird to people who aren't as in tune with prospect ranking, specifically fantasy prospect rankings.

Catchers tend to be suppressed because there is such a high threshold to meet to be a stand out there. Obviously, if you become a standout, you become very, very valuable. Catchers a terrible position. But it requires you playing more often than the average catcher. It requires you not hitting that sort of developmental hump that seems to afflict catchers because there's just so much on their plate, so much they have to learn. I just think Adley Rushman is an exception across the board. Like, he is like a generational catching prospect.

He's the McKinsey Gore of Catchers. he's the McKinsey Gora of catchers in that. And the only thing I would add is, you know, something maybe I need to consider as well is that, you know, there's a lot more movement that's going on in catcher. It's becoming the running back by committee of baseball right now, too, that teams are carrying two to three of them and running them through. Look at Joey Bart. Joey Bart already played first. So something maybe I should even consider because if I believe Rushman as a first baseman would be valued more than Andrew Vaughn, that might actually become a legitimate thing that can happen. I mean, teams are getting two to three catchers on the roster.

look what the Padres are doing. So keep that in the back of your mind if people are super, super anti-catcher. I'm pretty anti-catcher, but he is the exception to the rule. Of course, an exception to the rule not too long ago would have been Matt Wheaters for the Orioles. And we see how that turned down. My number seven, I think, is going to be your number two. I bet. My number seven is the other Mariners outfield prospect, Julio Rodriguez.

There he is. Yep. Absolutely. I'm, uh, if there's one, if there's a place. that anybody that has listened to Prospect 1 for last three years attaches me to in connection, it's Julio Rodriguez because I have been a long, long fan before he became stateside.

And then I live within 15 minutes of the Mariners facility. So I'm there a lot. I'm around him. He did an interview with me on Prospect 1. And I'm just, I'm a huge, huge, huge Julio Rodriguez fan. I think he's a generational talent. And he is my number two.

And he's going to be up soon, sooner rather than later, too. Well, yeah, that's the thing. I guess I have to defend while, I'm the low guy on Julio Rodriguez. I guess I have to defend why. He's the youngest of the names I've mentioned so far. He is the youngest. He'll be 20 on opening day. He may be 20 already. I'm not sure when his birthday is. He's already 20. He's already 20. He just turned 20, actually. He has barely reached high class A. I don't know what kind of progress he made at the alternate training site or how that's even going to be measured by the organization. But he barely reached class A, high class A. he did do great pair 30 for 65 with 11 extra base hits in 17 games he gives off kind of a Julio sorry a Juan Soto vibe in terms of like how quickly he's going to move which you were saying he'll be up soon I that's a good one I just expect him to breeze through the miners now he doesn't have Juan Soto's

plate discipline and he's not a speedster but he should hit and he should hit really well and if he lasts another year in the miners it's very likely he's going to be the number one prospect next year because all the guys ahead of him will have graduated. So Julio Rodriguez number seven. Eight and nine, I'm going to kind of lump them together. They're pitchers. They're pitchers who've already proven a lot in the majors. And that counts a lot for me.

As much as a rookie pitcher could prove in a 60 game season, Ian Anderson and Sixto Sanchez did. They are my numbers eight and nine here. Wow. I, you know, I'm glad I didn't do it. This would have been like redux of when I was on last time. And Frank's like, let's play a game. And we ended with very Luxie. And you and I both couldn't get that.

I was about to say, can I guess? And I wouldn't have guessed Ian Anderson. I would have guessed six, though. I kind of thought you might have put Nate Pearson in there. I'm, I'm bad with Ian Anderson man because I was an anti-Ean Anderson guy. I didn't think he would throw enough strikes and have enough command to stay. You're alone. You're in alone.

I've turned. Yeah, I've turned. Like, I'm high on him, but he's not in the same territory as 6-0. I love the 6-0 one. If you need to go for pitching, 6-0-1, 6-0-0-1 on my pitching board of all pitchers. So I'm with that one. Amazing strike-thrower 6-0 Sanchez is ground ball. You know, those two skills alone are going to carry him far.

Absolutely. And it looks like he has the stuff to become more of a strikeout guy. He had a couple of good strikeout performances in the majors. Yeah, Ian Anderson, man, like he, The walk rate ended up pretty high. I mean, obviously he dominated overall. The walk rate was kind of high, but just from watching him so much as a Braves fan

and in the playoffs, like, it's not because he didn't know where the ball was going. Like, he was in command of the strike zone. He just wasn't in it as consistently as maybe he should have as, as he was able to get away within the mind.

Not that it hurt him, but like he seems to really have a good grasp of the strike zone. So I'm not worried about that long term. Yeah. And, you know, maybe I'm giving a little bit too much credit to it. But, man, I got to tell you, the rookies that were able to perform at a high level this year, this weird year, and perform well in the playoffs. I'm specifically talking about Ian Anderson and Randy Rosarena. I give them extra bonus points for being able to maintain.

Ian Anderson wasn't just good down the stretch. He was good when it was important and he was good on the biggest stage you can possibly get in the playoffs. You have to give that credit. He deserves to be high up there. And then same with a rose arena as well. Yeah, I mean, I'll give it to you, man. I mean, from a proximity standpoint, he's locked into the rotation.

I think I'm not trying to put this on you because I think you kind of know this, but also you see it pragmatically that it's like it's kind of, you have a very floor list. I don't want to just say here and say it's a very safe list because prospects are not safe. But I think what you've done is you've picked proximity, safety that is attached to floor and you've built a list that I don't think is going to harm a lot of people. And there's plenty of upside. It's just there are missing some upside plays. You know, Julio's a little bit further down. There's still a guy who's in my top five.

You haven't said, you know, it's some of the long term upside, but you've built a very, very floor, a floor list that people are going to be happy with in 2021. Yeah, that kind of gets to my prospect philosophy. When I'm drafting in a dynasty league, I generally am not the guy who takes Wander Franco in round two, you know, in a dynasty startup. I'm not spending for the biggest, flashiest prospects. I am waiting for the prospect I get into discount or just whatever's left over because there are so many prospects out there. We don't really know how they're going to end up.

It's not like you put together a top 100 list and those end up being the best 100 players from that prospect. You know, number one is number one, number 100. Like number 100 could be the second best prospect from that entire. prospect class, you know? So it end up being the second best player. I mean, not prospect. So that kind of gets to my

my feelings on prospecting in general. Number 10, you mentioned him earlier, another Padres guy, C.J. Abrams. And now what's interesting about C.J. Abrams is he is the second shortstop I have here after Wander Franco. My shortstop's number two through number five. like I felt like I could have just drawn names from a hat.

Like I differentiating between C.J. Abrams, Austin Martin, Marco Luciano, who you mentioned earlier, and Bobby Witt. Like, I don't even really know how to prioritize those guys. I went with C.J. Abrams because the hit tool is so good with him. And speed is like 80 grade speed. So you know he's going to deliver. a healthy dose of steals on top of being a great hitter. If powers the question mark, powers what you cultivate at the major league level these days. Power comes along later, often. So I'll bet on the tools that are harder to cultivate, I guess.

I mean, I have some strict feelings on it just specifically. In my ASEL experience in 2019, I had wit, Abrams, and Luciano all here at the same time. I would watch a game with them together, and I got to compare them against. It was wild. It was absolutely wild. And Abrams is the lowest of those three for me.

But I mean, like you're saying, it's a tiered situation. Abrams first game. I was at his pro debut. I'm the only one in the stadium. What's he do? It's a home run. He's one of the fastest human beings I've ever seen. He hit 400 when he was out here in the ACL.

He's another worldly talent. But so is Luciano and wit. You know, Luciano is insane to me. And I would also say all three of those guys might not play that position. I think Abrams is clearly going to go to center field. He does not want to. I've asked him about it. He does not want to.

Witt, I think, is going to move off. And Luciano doesn't quite have the arm for it. And I think he's going to probably move off the position as well. So just ironically, all might not be that position. All great bets. Abrams is, again, to your point, he is the floor play. He's the best hitter of them. He is the best actual contact hitter with, I completely agree, 80 grade speed.

They're all great. But Luciano is the one that was in my team. top five. Luciano, MLB.com's right. I don't know who wrote that for MLB.com, but they say he has the potential to be, Luciano does, 300 hitting 40 homer shortstop annually,

which, you know, when you start throwing numbers around for prospects, usually prospect evaluators are very tepid in their actual projections of numbers. So to see a projection like that, 300 with 40 home runs annually, it gives you an idea of just, just how good Marco Luciano would be.

I was super skeptical of him until I saw him in person for like, I saw probably 10 games in the AZL and his power is ridiculous. And then he was one of the last prospects I saw before the pandemic hit when it was the very first game when the minor league season, the minor league spring training was about to start. It was the first game, Indians and giants. And he had gotten so much bigger. I mean, his arms had gotten bigger. The muscle was there.

And he was already, I think he hit nine homers in the AZL. he was already one of the best young power hitters I'd ever seen at that age. And he had got bigger coming into this spring training. I think he's a, again, you hate to throw all these generational talents. He's got some stuff. Let's see if the contact keeps going. But he was hitting off speed stuff when he was here. He was crushing him over the wall.

And he just got even bigger. So he's a, he's nuts. Oh man. So Marco Luciano is one of my honorable mentions here, who I considered from my top 10. And by the way, this isn't set in stone. You could maybe talk me out of this. I may change my mind anyway. But Marco Luciano's in the mix.

Of course, Austin Martin, who I mentioned, a draft pick this year for the Blue Jays. Probably not going to end up at shortstop. But I see kind of an Anthony Rendon like that there. Bobby Witt, not sure if I mentioned him. Honorable mention, Randy Arrowserena technically qualifies as a prospect. He's on the border of the top 10, Dylan Carlson, who of course know well from last year's prospect rankings. Alex Kierloff, who probably has a job for the twins already. Yeah, he's a Alex Kiel.

again, that's probably number two. If people were playing the Association Welsh game of prospects, number one is Julio. Number two is probably Alex Kirillov because he's another, he's another one of those guys that I got a chance to do an interview with. His dad's a hitting coach. He's super, super smart. He works on that craft.

He's got a fantastic swing that people are going to fall in love with. Loops up, big bat speed. He comes from a hitting family. I love Alex Kirillov. He's a buy for me big time this year because people aren't super excited about him. You only got that one little run in the playoffs. I've noticed that too. Kiroloff tends to slide when you're doing one of these dynasty startup drafts. Like I, for sure. I don't know if it's because he doesn't have speed. I don't know what it is, but he has a job. It seems like after they got rid of Eddie

Rosario in Minnesota. So he's borderline top 10 for me. And two more pitchers, Michael Kopeck and Nate Pearson, who you mentioned. So who would be in your top 10 that I didn't mention in mine? Obviously, you don't have you in Anderson, Sixthos Sanchez, or C.J. Abrams. I think those are the three where you have players other than I had. The only player that you didn't list inside your top 10 that I had was Kirloff. Kiroloff was the only player that I had in my top 10. I'm actually looking at it. I do have Abrams at 10, but I've got, oh, and Bobby Witt, too. You don't have Bobby Witt in there. So maybe you don't have Luciano. So actually, I'm messing up here. I think five through, yeah, my five through seven are Luciano, Kirillov, and Witt. So those guys are inside my top 10 and then

followed by Gore, Vaughn, and Abrams. All right. There we go. That's the start of a top 100 list. Let's do this rapid fire, you know, just for some of the, I guess some of the redraft players out there, go through some of these prospect names. And the exercise is going to be, will they reach the majors this year? Okay. And if so, if not, it's, you know, not worth asking you the second question.

but if so, is he worth selecting in a redraft league in anticipation of him coming up? So are you going to answer and then I answer? I just want you to answer. And if I disagree, I'll interject. Let's go quickly, though, because I still want to get a few more things. Let's do it. Wander Franco. Yes and yes.

Yep, agree. Jared Kelnick. Yes and yes. McKenzie Gore. Yes and yes. Spencer Torkelson. Yes. No.

I agree. I agree because I'm not super. confident in the yes and I'm not super confident it'll be soon enough to keep him stashed all that time. Yeah. Andrew Vaugh. Andrew Vaugh. Yes and yes. Okay. I probably have to be like a 15 teamer for me to. I 100% agree with that. It's got to be towards the back at a 12 team. I saw you have this really, I don't want to go into it, but you had this great conversation on Twitter about how people consider leagues and what formats and I'm 100% with you. I talk in 12 team for the standard consumer and for a 12 team, it's a little bit dicey on the second part, but I'm going to

just say yes and yes. Okay. Adley Rushman, the Orioles catcher. No and no. I'm thinking yes, but it'll be late in terms of him getting called up. Austin Martin, that was the Blue Jay's first round pick this year, very advanced hitter. I compared him to Anthony Rendon a minute ago. Probably not a shortstop, though that's where he's listed now. You see him coming up this year? No, I'm going to say no. Yeah, that's kind of a stretch. Royce Lewis, twin shortstop. Oh my gosh. Actually, that's who I compare Austin Martin to is Royce Lewis. I'm going to say yes and no, because I don't think it's going to happen too soon, but he will come up. Vidal Bruhan of the Ray's Speedster.

Yes, but no until he's there. Then it's a yes. Yeah. Like, that's another 80 grade speed guy. Yeah, exactly. You want that for the speed. Kind of reminds me of Raphael for call, actually. Jeter Downs.

I wrote Torn on. this man. I'm really torn. I'm a huge Geter Downs guy. I loved him since he was here with the Reds. I'm going to say no. So obviously the second part is no, but if he were, I would jump on it because he has lots and lots of tools that are fun to play with. But I just I'm going to say no. The thing about

Jeter Downs for me, I'm not sure he's actually going to run that much in the majors because he's not actually that fast. He was successful stealing bases in the miners. And I think he's a pretty good hitter. He's who's probably going to take over at second base for the Red Sox whenever there you know they got him in the uh in the deal with the twin who what deal was that that was

that was the uh vertigo trade or yeah yeah the radigo trade yeah the moogie bets trade no moogie bets and see now you're confusing me maybe it was the mokey bett either way he was a dodger and he went to the red sox and now i'm confused me too i'm pretty sure it was a vertigo trade Logan Gilbert, Future Mariners, Ace, which is the same trade. Now that I'm realizing, it's the same trade. The Verdugo trade is the Mookie Betts trade. No, no. Ace of Lacey.

No. Royals' first round pick. No. Big no for you. They're aggressive with the singer and... Yeah, but they still got... They brought in Boobitch, but they still got Daniel Lynch to come up, so... No, I don't think so.

Matt Manning, Tigers. The third of the Tigers young pitcher is the one we... didn't see last year. I'm going to go with no with the injury stuff. But I mean, he's just like he's not worth drafting right now with the injuries and he has to build back up. So that's why I say no. I think he'll be up. But I agree he's not worth a stash ahead of time.

Nolan Jones. Yeah. I totally interrupted. He's also, no, no. We did that to each other. He's also been working in the outfield with the Indians in the off season. So I think there's another home for him. and it could be a corner outfield spot,

which they have lots of room for. So that's why I would say yes, and I think it's going to be in the outfield. And is he worth drafting right now? No, but when he gets close in the call, then yes. I was thinking they don't really have a plan for second base yet, and maybe they stick Jose Ramirez there,

which it seems like they've wanted to do for a while. And then bring Nolan Jones up to play third. I think Tyler Freeman is the guy that's going to go. Tyler Freeman, you're going to fall in love with him once he gets closer. he's a super big floor guy high average kind of like madrigal doesn't strike out walks he's got some pop um i've loved this guy since 2017 and he is the future for that team for sure and i think he could come up this year i'm going to skip ahead a little here drew waters yes and no i you know what i want to say no across the board but i'll say yeah he probably does get something but no he's not worth

are you a big drew waters guy i'm i love the intangibles on him i just I don't know. I feel like he's going to be like Nixon Zell. He's just going to have like lots of streak, maybe like Key Boom again. Like he's got this great swing and he can run and all this type of stuff. But I'm just not sure it's going to click right away. Like the thing about Drew Waters Street, like he strikes out so much. And the power that he supposedly has hasn't really manifested. So a lot is weighing on just his ability to hit line drives. Like and there's not a lot of room. Look at Apache not going anywhere. Kuna's not going anywhere. And if they bring Ozuna back, there's no path that he would be a trade bait or something like that. I kind of hope he's trade bait as a brave fan because I just don't, I don't feel good. He's one of those prospects who like, I don't want to be the idiot who like leaves him out of his top 100, but I kind of want to leave him out of my top 100. Yeah, I've got them pretty high, but every time I look at it, I'm like eh. But I also, also with that with Paché, I was just like, nah, I just don't like where I have them.

And I continuously want to go down and down and down. I feel better about Paché because. he doesn't strike out. And that's just such a big advantage for any developing player. Like that is the single biggest. Like you get me a guy who strikes out a ton, I have concerns. You give me a guy who doesn't strike out much at all and he has like raw tools to go with it. I think there's a pretty good outcome there.

Yeah, I agree. Forrest Whitley. I'm going to say yes because they've got to at some point, but he's not worth drafting right now. He's been a mess. I'm close to out on Forrest Whitley, by the way. Yeah. Like he bounced back in there. AFL in 2019, but then he was hurt this year didn't really get to pitch at all.

He said in the AFL. Yeah, sorry, I mean to interrupt you. He was here the year before. The year he was here, the last year he was here was amazing. I remember James Anderson from Rotterwire and I were watching him pitch against Bobby Dalback. Our minds were just blown at how good he was. Then he's just falling apart.

He's had issues. He's had injuries. He had a personal issue. Then he came to the AFL and he's like, oh, I've discovered the problem. And he did this whole video. about it. Darren Sutton, he was like, it's how I was dipping my shoulder and I was dip my shoulder and I found better results. And then the minute he got back into spring, he was doing it again.

So I'm just, I don't know, man, he's tried. I think he's done driveline. He's tried all the stuff, but he has just, he's been a lost cause for two years. He has amazing stuff that isn't clicking. So maybe he'll be Kopeck like, but I'm about out. All right. A Marlins duo here.

Marlins have the makings of a great rotation already. They have more good pitchers on the way. their first round pick this year was Max Meyer, or 2020, I should say, was Max Meyer. And then they have another good pitching prospect on the way Edward Cabrera. Guy throws 100 miles per hour. What do you see? You see either of them contributing this year? And if so, we're stashing ahead of time.

Meyer, no, even though I love him. He's my number one pitcher from this draft class. I love Max Meyer. It doesn't sound like evaluators are in total agreement, whether he's going to be a starter or reliever. he has the big fastball and slider, like a slider, a mid-90 slider. Max Meyer has. He had two of the best pitches in this draft class. He's going to be a starter. I think he gets the height issues. He's like six foot, blah, blah, blah. He's six foot. And change up is just developing. But yeah, it sounds like they want to develop him as a starter, but that's going to make it

take more time. And that's why he won't be up. Cabrera, yes. And just not right away. You don't draft him in your drafts in March or anything like that. Wait till midway through the year. He legit could actually take a spot. Pay attention to it. They love Cabrera, but I just don't think I would speculate on, especially rookie pitchers. I'm really not going to over speculate unless their name is like McKinsey Gore at this point. Everybody else, I would just wait till they get the call. All right. Let's answer some questions. That might be all we have time for. Some questions from Twitter. Got one here from David Mendelson.

Hey, David. Which prospect that made their debut last year and didn't do well. Do you have belief in a strong turnaround next year in 2021? I assume. Ooh, strong turnaround. I feel like I'm obliged to say or obligated. People want me to say Joe Adele because I'm a little bit of a Joe Adele apologist. But like I was really turned off by how bad the start was. He did not look like he understood the pitches that were there. And I'm telling you this firsthand, you can go back, you can listen to my interview with him. He is one of the smarter prospects I've ever interviewed and talked to. He knows himself. He knows his game. He didn't like mess around with me of many profits. aspects gave me this cookie cutter when I would ask them about how they hit for power. Just be like, well, I'm just trying to hit in the gap and blah, blah, blah. He didn't, he wasn't screwing around. He would, he told me the truth. He's like, I've got this.

I know when I can push in for power and contact. He's got all the intangibles. I love all that stuff. He looks so unbelievably fooled by off speed stuff that I just don't know how long it's going to take. So I'm not going to say him. I guess the guy that I would pick, I'm pick Evan White with the Mariners. I've always loved this guy as well. The strikeout rate is very concerning, and this would make you freak out.

Probably maybe a heart palpitation there, Scott. 41% K rate last year. He only had 176 or 176 and 54 games, but he was an 87th percentile in EV and exit velocity, 96 percentile in hard hit, also in the 90 percent tile in barreling up the ball in barrel percentage. And he has, he is all the epitome of that is a first basement, especially a fantasy first baseman with power. He's a gold glove first baseman,

so he's not coming off of the position. I think he can adjust. I think he will adjust way, way over aggressive in his early stint. He was a rookie, but I've been around him. Smart guy understands hitting. He's played with a bunch of great dudes, great hitters that have been a little overly aggressive. But I think what works well for him is not being able to come off.

All of the analytical stuff on the hard hit stuff is there for him. Like I said, you know, exit velocity, launch angle. Every single pitch that was thrown to him, whether it was off speed, breaking or fastball, he had a teen's launch angle on. So I'm going to go with Evan White making a strong turnaround because it was so bad.

I'm going to cheat with my answer because he didn't pitch last year, but the last we saw him pitching the majors that the final line wasn't good. I'm going to say Michael Kopeck, you mentioned his minor league numbers were kind of underwhelming. That changed right before his debut in 2018, before he had Tommy John's surgery. He really found his control.

Last seven starts, a combined four walks between them, and it led to a 184 ERA. And then, by the way, when he got to the majors, his first three appearances were awesome. It was just the fourth one that skewed the line, and, you know, he found out he needed Tommy John's surgery right after that. So obviously, he wasn't all there as he struggled through that start. So I think Michael Kopeck's going to be a stud,

and I think he already has a job for the White Sox more or less. big into him. All right. This is from Mike Curland, who I think we had as a guest on the podcast, one of the shows I was gone this winter when I was taking all my time off. Mike Curland wants to know where do you get info, if any, about intangibles of a play. You mentioned intangibles a couple times already this show. And how do you implement this info into your analysis and or rankings at all? I mean, that's, you know, intangibles is kind of, it's kind of like literally been defined as that thing that you can't define that you can't put on a stat sheet. You know, they'll say those intangibles that you cannot quantify. And how do you get it? Well, you got to find people that are around the guys. I've been lucky enough and hopefully in the future I'll be lucky enough to have spent time, whether it's interviewing or being around these guys. You really do pick up stuff when you're around them on an everyday setting, whether it's, you know, things I'm looking for is obviously like professional. professionalism, how they handle around their teammates. Famous story I've told like Jason Rosario, who was a Padre, who's now a Red Sock,

the guy was, I mean, he was a knucklehead. He didn't care. He didn't run out of balls, got thrown out of games. He just, you know, he had a lack of desical attitude and that stuff sucks. But, you know, you're looking for guys like McKinsey Gore, intense going into starts, how people, they interact with fans or coaches and, you know, how they talk, how they talk about, how they talk about analytics, like Taylor Tremel. who's someone I absolutely love, but, you know, hasn't had a great run recently.

He hasn't. No, he's falling out of my top 100, probably. And the last, and, you know, two and a half years ago, when I interviewed him, it was super anti-analytics. And some people didn't like that. And those are things you can pick up just an interview. I asked him about it. He just shook his head. He's like, no, I'm not into that stuff. And I got the same thing from Alec Bohm last year, but that turned on the complete opposite side. So that's how I see intangibles. It's just the sources are you got to find the people that are around these guys and, you know, hopefully they can write it into stories about little tiny interactions. I'm very into the personal people side of players and to see how that can translate.

And I will report on those when I possibly can. But I mean, is there anything that you look in intangibles? Well, I only go by what I read since I'm more of a prospect aggregator. I can't rely on the first hand information so much. But yeah, it makes a difference to me.

What it tells me is what would you look for? I don't know what specifically I would list under intangering. but, you know, just non-baseball skill things. It just, it tells me a guy isn't going to beat himself. It says something about he, his floor is probably going to be competent major leager. Maybe not a starter, but a guy who deserves to play in the majors. And the ceiling, like it gives him a better chance of reaching his ceiling because he's not going to defeat himself. So that's, I factor it into my rankings.

It's not just a pure, okay, this guy's the 60 grade here. and a 55 grade here. So I'm going to rank him ahead of this guy who's a 50 and a 55. You know, it has some, I can't exactly quantify what it means for my rankings, but it does mean something to me. Yeah,

I think just throwing to you like, you know, when I say like Alex Kerlov's dad is a professional hitting coach, like that might be an intangible. You know, Bobby Witt comes from bloodlines. Like that might be like little intangibles to give you little credit. And I agree with your time.

Yeah. Yeah, sure. That definitely, they have they know what it takes to be good i guess uh scott mauer this is a guy who plays in my dynasty league and has from the beginning he wants to know do either of you avoid or downgrade raise prospects not named wander franco and i can tell you yes i do i am not as eye on vidal brujan because he plays for the raise and and you know since he's mostly a speed guy i'm not confident they're going

to make him an everyday player ever no matter how good he is if you think it's because of rotate he'll be rotational yeah just because they the everybody's a platoon player for the Xavier edwards the same way of course I know wonder Franco is going to play every day at least I'm pretty sure but even like a pitcher like Shane boss I know to call him boss now instead of bass we mentioned earlier like I think he might end up being

just kind of this multi inning dominant swing man type instead of a true so he's probably not going to be in my top 100 this year even though he was last year just because of the way I see the race handling their talent surplus there. Yeah, pitchers, pitchers to me like McClanahan and Baws and that type of Nicole Wilcox,

like I told you, that stuff worries me, especially if they're given that treatment. Hitters, I don't know, I don't think too, too much about it. The rotational stuff, that should be on the table. But Brandon Lau got out of it.

And, you know, some of these guys, like, they get through it. If the talent is there enough, they'll get through it. Like Xavier Edwards is going to get, be given a shot. That guy's, that guy's really good. great, great hitter, patient, doesn't strike out, runs. But pitchers with the raise, I do worry about.

Last question here from Sam Armstrong. Give us your hunches, right or wrong gut feeling. Who do you guys feel will produce this year or next year that isn't a top 50 prospect? I'll go first. My guy might be a top 50 on some lists, but he's not somebody whose name gets mentioned a lot on shows like this, where people are reviewing the very biggest prospects. And that's Tristan Kossis of the Red Sox. who when I first read the scouting report on him,

it sounded like Cody Bellinger, this guy with this high, a lot of leverage in his swing that's going to generate monster power that isn't showing up in the stats just yet. And then you read about the progress he made this year at the alternate training site and people were raving about his plate discipline.

They were comparing his setup to Joey Votto. I've seen video of him. His follow-through looks like Freddie Freeman. And I'm not saying Tristan Kassas is this like superhuman first baseman assembled in the factory and he's going to deliver like the best case scenario of all those first basemen. But what it tells me is that it's a superstar outcome potentially for him. And I don't know exactly what that looks like, like what what talents he's going to take from each of those first base comps I just threw out there. But I feel like the ceiling is really high.

And I feel like he's somebody you can still get, you know, I don't feel like his reputation is such that you're going to have to give up an arm and a leg form in a dynasty league. Yeah, I completely agree with you on Kossis. I don't know how to completely read this if it was production at a major league level. If I could throw out a couple, Lewin Diaz, I don't think is seen as a top 50 by most who was just up with the Marlins. I think he's going to make a run this year. I'd also throw out Tyler Freeman, who I said, who's going to be a guy that produces relatively soon and a hunch guy that I think can produce that's not on anyone's radars with the Dodgers is DJ Peters, who I've been talking about for a bit, who's got insane power.

And from a prospect perspective, I think two rookies that just got drafted, Robert Hassel with the Padres and Ed Howard, are guys that aren't in anybody's top 50. They're going to get on the scene big time. I have Howard a little bit over hassle. And then like a further down guy is Mason Martin with the Pittsburgh Pirates who hit 35 homers as like a 20 year old who,

you know, been working out a whole whole lot in the off season, already has the power there. It's pretty defined like struggle of what you have to work on and could go like a Bobby dollback way if he can just hit a little bit better. So I'll go with them. That's kind of a hunch.

Mason Martin and DJ Peters are more of my hunch guys. Hassel Howard are my long term. And then Lewin Diaz and Freeman for the next like year. You went a little deeper than me, but that's good. That's just a lot of names. All right. This has been good, Chris. We went too long.

Didn't get to nearly enough. But I think it was pretty good. So I appreciate you coming on. As always, Chris Welsh. Let's do it again real soon. Hey, thanks, man. I appreciate you having me on. I think we covered plenty of stuff. And hopefully people want to check me out on Twitter at Is It the Welsh? Prospect 1, the Patreon, patreon.com, ItlRME. Those are some places you can check me out and all the stuff.

And I'll talk to you again soon. All right. Scott White, I'll be joined by Chris Towers next time. Bye-bye.