Fantasy Baseball Today - 2021 Rankings Debates! (1/8 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 8, 2021

Chris Towers will have rankings this year! No doubt, they'll be different from Scott White's. Chris takes an early look at Scott's rankings and the two debate over players that might be ranked too high or too low for 2021! Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello there and welcome to another episode of fantasy baseball today. I'm Scott White, joined by Chris Towers, and this is an extra special episode of fantasy baseball today. We are going with no notes. No notes. It's anarchy. It is complete anarchy. We're completely freewheeling it here. nothing to guide us.

They have left the substitute teacher without a lesson plan and it is certain to end in disaster or maybe not. Maybe it'll be the best show we've ever done. We'll prove how talented we are and we won't have to try so hard going forward. Scott,

were you the kid who, when that situation happened with the substitute teacher? Were you the kid who raised your hand and said, excuse me, we were supposed to be doing this? No. Okay.

I'm just asking. I just thought it was worth asking. I probably would have been thinking that, but I would not have been bold enough to say that. I may have said it in private. Were you the, if I did? Were you the, excuse me, miss, you forgot to collect homework.

Were you that kid? No, definitely not that kid. Okay. No. I could, I just, I could see you being that kid. I was too shy to be that kid, I think. I probably still am if I was still a kid. But I'm not.

I'm a grown-up, and I am a grown-up hosting a podcast about fantasy baseball. So I don't know. I don't know what that means. But we're going to talk about rankings today. We're going to talk about rankings. Chris is doing rankings. Again, not his first time doing full fantasy baseball rankings,

but it's been a couple years. It's been a little while. He's had some role changes over the years. and now he's back in a role where he's going to be doing some fantasy baseball rankings. And he hates it, is what I understand. He hates doing fantasy baseball rankings. I mean, look, it's not just fantasy baseball rankings.

The whole process of rankings, it's just, it doesn't work super well with my brain. It's a lot of, like, it's very tedious, and I'm good. I'm a big picture guy. I like to look at a big picture, and rankings, you've got to look at a very small picture. Manusia.

But I'm looking forward to the process. You know, I think it does, it makes you a better, it makes you a better analyst to have to, you got to justify your things. And so, you know, eventually I'll do that. And it can be really hard to justify sometimes. The small distinctions between players and the rankings can be this very subtle, inexplicable detail in your mind that, you know, you can't really justify to another person.

You just know it's right. And so that's where we land today. The exercise today is you in gearing up to create your rankings are going to challenge me on my rankings that already exist. Yeah, and it's not necessarily me telling you that you're wrong. Because I'm not prepared to tell you that you're wrong yet. I will eventually tell you that you're wrong. But it's more like this thing jumped out at me.

What's up with this? that kind of thing. Yeah. Well, I'm not prepared to justify that I'm right necessarily either because you sent me this list. Again, no notes.

You sent me this list about 10 minutes before we started recording. And these rankings I've mostly put together in October. So they're not top of mind. I've adjusted them some since then. But I think it's a good exercise.

I think this is, it's always good to be challenged on your assumptions. Yes. And, you know, I'm sure the, the listeners have some questions about some of these guys, too. So...

I'm sure they do. How do you want to start it? Well, you've given me two players of each position. So we'll start at the boringest, or maybe the second boringest after relief pitch. We'll start with catcher. We'll start with catcher. And the two players you're challenging me on here are Austin Nola

and Joey Bart. So fire away. Yeah, so Austin Nola, you have... and this is your rotissory rankings, you have Austinola 8th at catcher. And I think that's really interesting because we're looking at a player who has played 127 games in the majors

and has an 808 OPS, which is, frankly, for a catcher, quite good. But he is old. 29-year-old rookie, 30-year-old second-year player in 2020, which means he will be a 31-year-old third-year player in 2021. And he, frankly, was not a good

hit her in the minor. 679 OPS. I think he transitioned to catcher pretty late in his career. I want to say he started out as an infielder and transitioned to catch her about five years ago.

That could explain why. But even, you know, in AAA, which he did not really reach until later in his career, he has a 737 OPS. So I guess my question is, what changed? Why isn't this

a lesser version of what happened with Mitch Garver last year. Why isn't it a lesser version of what happened? Yeah, he's not as good as Mitch Garver was in a small sample size, but it's a, you know, it's a small sample size from a guy who didn't have the track record to back it up. I don't know why you're throwing Mitch Garver into this mix, okay? Mitch Garver is his own separate situation.

I'm not ready to make a conclusive statement on Mitch Garver and how good he is or isn't. But I will say for Austin Nola, I had big doubts about him going into last year. wasn't projected to be a starter going into last year. Remember, Tom Murphy hurt his foot and never came back from it. And so Nola held the job for the Mariners and did so well in it that the Padres acquired him for their playoff run. He got better. He got better in basically every way so that the expected stats matched up with the actual stats he was putting up. He cut down on the strikeouts, more exit velocity.

I mean, just really every way hitter can improve he did with increased exposure. And of course, it was a small sample. And of course, some skepticism is deserved because of that. But there's also the matter, and I hope this doesn't end up being the rationale behind all of these rankings. Who the heck am I supposed to put ahead of him? Because here's who I have, here's who's ahead of him right now. J.T. Real muto. real muto. I got to get used to saying his name

the correct way. J.T. Real Muto, obviously. Wilson Contrera, Salvador Perez, Gary Sanchez, Travis Darno, Yasmani Grundahl, Will Smith, and then Austin Nola at number eight. Who that I have behind him? Do you think

I could justify putting ahead of him? Why not James McCann? Who has been just as good over the last couple of seasons in a, you know, larger sample size. It's not a huge sample size, but we're talking about

587 plate appearances to roughly 400. And he's one spot behind. So like we talked about, the differences between these guys could be pretty slim. It is pretty slim. And in fact,

when I first made out the rankings, I suspected James McCann was signed to be a starter somewhere, but it wasn't a given. So that made it pretty easy to distinguish between. They're basically neck and neck. They're basically neck and neck.

their success has mostly been recent and 2020 was more validating than 2019. It's not a huge difference for me, Nolo, over McCann. But the point is, like, catcher really Peters out after that. I do have Mitch Garver there a couple spots behind if you want to go the upside route and just gamble on a bounce back season when things went very wrong for Mitch Garver in 2020. And maybe that's what I'll end up doing in shallower leagues. but you know kind of the more cautious approach of rankings. Yeah, I'm going to have Nola and James McCann ahead.

And I would even throw in Christian Vasquez. I think there's kind of, you know, I think McCann, Vasquez, and Nuller are kind of a three-person tier. They seem like the same guy to me. But. The progression their career has taken in terms of becoming relevant. Yeah. You know, we're talking about, you know, basically two good seasons for all three of them

with an OPS in the low 800s. I guess my only thing with Nola would be that just the sample size is smaller for him than either of the other two. It seems a little less sure. But you're right. This is one of the things that I like about this exercise is I'm going through it.

And I would probably put Garver, McCann, and Vasquez ahead of him, but I don't know how much further I could go just because, you know, it does seem like there's probably a teardrop at 11. Yeah. So then the other guy, who I think is,

probably too low, although there's not necessarily a good justification for it, would be Joey Bart, who's 22nd. Where would you, have you known that Joey Bart was going to play all last season? Where would you have ranked him? In the top 15, I don't remember exactly where, you know what, when he first got called up, I think I probably had him in the top 10, just because catcher being what it was, give me the impact guy, and if it doesn't work out, I'll move on to, to somebody boring.

So probably had him in the top 10 then. But, you know, the biggest thing here is Buster Posey, and he's going to be back. He sat out all of 2020, and that's what allowed Bart to come up. And Barr was terrible. Bart needs more time in the minors, clearly. They signed recently the Giants signed, I can't remember who, but somebody to be the backup catcher to Posey. So there's really no chance Bart is making the opening day roster.

So that's the biggest thing. Bart is down there. Actually, he's not where I thought he would. 20 second. He's 22nd, yeah. So how much would you need to see from him in the minors? Let's say Brandon Bell, who's been, you know, there have been some rumors about him.

I think he's an expiring contract this year. Let's say Brandon Bell gets traded, you know, before the season. What would you need to see from Joey Bart to move him up into your top 15? could he do anything to move into my like if he was assured at bats yeah that's what I mean

if Buster Posey was going to play first base full time which would presumably be what would happen if Braynambach got traded you know as bad as he was so I have the the diamond backs tandem of Dalton Varsho and Carson Kelly right ahead of him and I could see maybe moving Bart ahead of them

just because they're going to be eating at bats stealing at bats from each other. But then, like, there's some pretty interesting catchers in that 15 to 20 range, including Posey himself, which I'd obviously have to take ahead of Bart. Jorge Alfaro, he's always interesting. Tom Murphy, who's going to be back for the Mariners,

without Austin Nola there. Big power for him. Sam Huff, Rangers prospect, who got called up late and has a big power about himself. Some prospect list gives him, like, give him like a 70 power grade. So I'm not sure I, as inept as Bart looked at the plate last year, he was awful, awful.

Yeah. I don't think he deserves any benefit of the doubt if he has a job. I mean, he needs to go down. He needs to produce big. And then we'll revisit. But no, I'm not, I'm not, I think it's a vote of confidence that in a two-catcher league, I have him as being drafted. That's, that's probably fair.

Yeah. All right. So let's move on to first base, where you have Pete Alonzo and Vladimir Guerrero. Those are the two you're challenging me on. Yeah. And I think Vlad, at what point does he have to start producing to be worth? Like, is this, this is the last year that we're giving him the benefit of the doubt like this, right? He's coming off a year, a year, 60 games.

He played every game. 262, 329, 462, 329, 791. OPS. Nine home runs, 33 RBI. That's, I mean, really it's like a 22 homer,

probably 85 RBI pace, maybe. It feels like we're still giving him a lot of credit. Yeah, he's only 22, or will only be 22 on March 16th, so he won't be 22. It'll be 22 on opening day.

But he hasn't shown it yet. And, you know, you've got him at 11 at first base in front of some guys who you know frankly have Max Muncie Mike Mastakis Miguel Sinoe Eric Hosmer

you know I think it's the one small sample size season where he's really performed at a significantly higher level and by the way it was really just for a couple weeks in September he kind of Hosmer went back to his old habits of the high ground ball rate and everything so I'm really I'm really not a fan of Hosmer moving forward

as encouraging as he was to start out 2020. I think that's fair. But I think you could even go Carlos Santana, Reese Hoskins, Josh Bell. These are all guys who have done more than Vladimir Guerrero for sure. So, yeah,

have you seen anything that makes you encouraged by him so far beyond just the pedigree? Well, I think the number that's cited often is peak exit velocity as opposed to average exit velocity, which is, you know, very impressive. Like, he's, he kind of stands out among all hitters, Vladimir Guerrero does for that. So that's, that's the number you often see cited.

But honestly, the reason I rank him, it's interesting that you're wondering, do I have Vladimir Guerrero too high? Because I'm sure within the industry, I'll be among the lowest on him, if not the very lowest. This ranking is partly because it's as low as I feel like I could justify ranking him, given how high everyone else is ranking him. Like, I know I'm not drafting him as my number 11 at first base. It's not going to happen. I don't want to be so far out on an island that if he does break through,

it's just absurd looking back on it and I'm laughed out of the room, I guess. I don't know. I don't know. I don't feel like I can justify ranking him lower because the consensus is, I'm already defying the consensus by so much. Yeah, it's interesting. He is, you know, like I said, the 791 OPS in year two was, is his best so far in two years. And then you look at, you know, the depth charts projections on fan graphs. And they have him hitting 300, 371, 520. And Steamer has him hitting, well, I guess it's the same projection.

I didn't realize that's how they did it. All right. So yeah, Steamer has him hitting 300, 371, 520. Man, that's a lot of wishing on something that we haven't seen. Because you're right. You have him 91st overall. Based on the Steamer projections, he would be the 25th best player in Rhodos scoring. and his 80 P and NFC drafts is 56.

I think you're right. You know, this is not one that I necessarily think you're wrong on or questioning. I think it just was worth discussing because you can only go, and you can only go so far in, you know, wishing on a player. At some point you've got to see that player become what he's supposed to be. And, you know, he's a great contact. hitter improved in year two just like we wanted to see the exit velocity was elite last season average and max um but he still he hits the ball on the ground too much his ex wobo was only 321 he actually

outperformed his ex woba last season which is not what you would expect uh from a guy who doesn't have speed and so i i think it's almost too high for flat america I hear you. Makes me think he's not going to be on any of my teams either. I guess a way to justify it further. You made me think of it with something you said there that there is, you can't just hope for the best case scenario

except once you reach a certain point in the draft you can. I mean, you're investing too much not to get something more assured until you reach a certain point of the draft. where it's worth pursuing upside. Yeah. And I think where I have Guerrero ranked is about that point

where I'm willing to, you know, give up the safe pick to get the upside. So that's, you know, Max Muncie, Mike Mustakis. Yeah.

Neither one of them are going to produce like a second, third rounder, you know, so I think that's... At least not for our first basement. Muncie could as a second basement as possible. And a points league maybe,

but, you know, the batting average is going to hold them back in Roto. Anyway, so let's talk about Pete Alonza. That's the other one you're challenging the ranking here. Yeah, and that's one where, again, I'm not sure if it's too high or too low. Sixth at first base. Sixth of the first base. Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, DJ LaMayhew, probably more, probably be drafted at second base, mostly.

LeMayhew and Will. Jose Brayu and Luke Void. I mean, those are the two interesting ones of Brayu and Voight, who were nowhere near this high in my rankings, you know, except for what happened in the most recent 60 games. Yeah. So yeah, Freeman, Bellinger, LeMayhew, Abrae, Voit, and then Pete Alonzo. And it feels like there's definitely, I would guess your tiers probably would have a drop after Abraeu.

But I don't want to speak for you. I don't know if you've done that yet. But just looking at it, I would guess you're a little more skeptical of Voight than a Brayu. A little. It's pretty close because the thing is, Abraeu had a, firm track record. Voight, we didn't really,

we still didn't. There was a lot of reason to believe Voight was good, but how good and even what good looked like for him. I mean, frankly, I'm still not sure about that because the good void we saw

in 2019 was different from the good void we saw in 2020. Was different from the good vote we saw in 2020. Or from 2018. Yeah, the late season 2018 one, yeah. So, You know, how it, in terms of how they produced in 2020, it's a clear, it's clear a Brayu and Voit belong in the top tier with like LeMayhew and even, you know, you could even justify putting them, tearing them with Freddie Freeman. In terms of how I'm going to, when I make out my tiers and how I'm going to draft, probably going to have zero shares of a Brueu and Voit. Because I would tier them with Alonzo and Olson, who I have.

just behind Alonzo. I think those two are very similar, by the way. And I said that going into 2020, Alonzo and Olson, both underachieved. Olson, I think, more significantly. But I expect they'll be underdrafted while Abrae and Voigt will be overdrafted. And, you know, I just don't see the justification

for ranking Alonzo any higher, given how drastically a Brayu and Voit outperformed him in 2020. Yeah, I guess it just comes down to what's really tough about Pete Alonzo is the level he performed at in 2020, well, you want to say it's only 57 games, but really it was the second half of 2019 where he performed at that level as well.

you know, he hit below 240, I believe, and after the All-Star break, and he was more like a, you know, high 30s, low 40s homer guy than the 53 homer guy. He hit for the full season. And so, you know, we're coming up on probably 120 or so games for Pete Lonzo, where he kind of looks like Reese Hoskins, like a better Reese Hoskins.

I mean, I still think Olson's the closest comparison. I seen them both as 250 to 260 hitters with, 40 to 45 Homer potential. I don't see Alonzo hitting 53 again. Yeah. But I think what I'm projecting him for

you know, I think this is the appropriate point to rank him. We got to move on to second base. Second base, you're challenging me on Jeff McNeil and Jake Croninworth. Yeah, why do you hate Jeff McNeil? You're so low on Jeff McNeil, Scott.

You have Jeff McNeil tent. There was no power. There was no power in 2020. And, you know, that was the big question. Entering 2020 was that big second half power surgery saw in 2019 that elevated him to near elite status in fantasy, would he follow up on it?

He did not. He did not at all. And because it's a 60-game sample, I can't, I still can't say, okay, Jeff McNeil's not a power hitter. I really don't know. But there are more doubts now than there were at this point last year.

And you kind of can say it, right? Because you got 63 games in 2018. You got 60, how many did he play in 2020? Do you play all 60? However many he played, roughly 60-ish. And then you look at the splits. And he had seven home runs in 75 games in the first half of 2019.

And then 16 in the second half. of 2019. So you basically have the one half season, and really even then it was 57 games. You have kind of two roughly 60 game samples of him hitting four and three home runs, one of him hitting 16, and then an 87 game sample

of him hitting 7, or a 75 game sample of him hitting 7. Here's the thing that people always overlook with Jeff McNeil, though, is 2018, his final minor league season, actually the year he got called up.

He had 19 home runs in 339 minor league of bats, 88 games. He had 19 home runs. And that was, you know, he did spend part of that at the PCL. But that was pre-juiced ball.

And 14 of the 19 home runs came at double-A before being promoted to the PCL. So, like, he showed power in the minors, too. It's not like that second half in 20, 19 was just completely out of nowhere. But it's been,

it's been, because you know what's weird about it? Even the four home runs he hit in 2020, they came on four consecutive days in September. So there was just nothing, nothing, nothing than four days in a row. Here it comes for Jeff McNeil. And, you know, the season ended before we saw where it went.

So I don't know. He's a really good contact hitter. I can say that for sure. but I don't know what else I can say about him and I'm worried about you know I want to limit my investment in him I don't I don't want to draft him like he's a difference maker

I want to draft him more like he's a fallback at the position because that's all I'm confident in him being so 10th at second base is where I have him I'm not sure we said that but 10th between Max Muncie and Mike Mustakis both of whom we mentioned at first base Yeah. So the other guy I wanted to talk about was Jane Croninworth.

And I guess I have to ask, you have him 13th in the rankings you sent me. Is that accounting for the Kim signing for the Padres and the assumption that he won't be playing every day? No. It was not accounting for that. I had him there before that signing ever happened. And I expect he will play close to every day. It sounds like that's the plan. he's going to be kind of moving around a lot

actually either he or Kim will be moving around a lot I don't think they've totally decided who but they're they're both going to play a lot so you think it's too low I think it might be too high given the playing time concerned but I'd like to I'd like to be talked into it because this is another guy

who you know the sample size is pretty small another late career breakout and he's only 26. So it's not quite the same. He'll be 27 by opening day. But he basically had one half season in 2019 as a 24 year old.

And then the 54 games last season where he was really, really good for the Padres. Although not necessarily in a way that's all that conducive to fantasy performance or to fantasy production. So I just wonder, is this

a Is this a 10 to 12 homer, 10 to 12 steel guy who's not playing every day? Or do you think he's better than that? I think it's kind of irrelevant given the position. Look who I have two spots behind Cronworth. David Fletcher, who he'll be lucky to be a 12-12 guy, you know. And you have him, you know, one spot behind Tommy Lestella, who has been very up and down.

so yeah it's a I think it's an interesting yeah it's an interesting spot because I can be talked into a couple of those guys how high do you think Kroninworth could what do you think the range could be well here's the other

part of it why it's easy to see a glass half full in my mind is because you look at the expected stats for Krona worth this year he hit 285 he slugged 477 his expected stats worth 324 top 2%tile and top 2% of the league

and a 5x slug was 541 versus the actual slug of 477 so he greatly like he that's Marcelo Zuna levels of underachievement and obviously it was a tiny sample that goes for for all of it but he looks like he should have been better than he's was. I mean, it's not just those numbers. If you dig deeper in the numbers, how hard he hit the ball, how little he struck out, how much he walked. I mean, the really good signs here for Jake Croninworth that suggest to me he hasn't peaked yet. I'm not super confident in it, but I'm ranking him only 13th at a very weak position. And I don't think it's taking a big swing for him considering. The couple guys who I rank lower that I think have a strong case to rank higher

or Nick Madrigal at 16. Who didn't hit very well when we saw him last year and he didn't run much at all? I expect him to hit well. I don't know how much he's going to run. And then the other guy is Dylan Moore

who, you know, I have the fantasy point per game numbers up right here. He was second. He was behind only DJ LaMayhew last year in fantasy points per game. But is Dylan Moore. Like where did that come from? I have no faith in him at all.

He's not young. He was not on anybody's radar at any point in his career before that. So I'm very skeptical of him. But I could understand drafting him ahead of Coronaworth, especially since he appears to be a base dealer. All right. I think that's, I could also just,

time of us, Stella. We'll see where he signs. We'll see if he's playing every day. Of course. But he mostly backed up that shocking 2019 outbreak. That was another guy who just came out of nowhere. Had hit for like,

had like five home runs as a professional or as a major leaguer before hitting 16 in 2019. And then, you know, largely backed it up last season. So we'll see where he lands, but he's someone who I could see being ahead of Croninworth. I have him ahead of Croninworth.

I'm one spot ahead. Well, that's why I could see him there. Okay. All right. let's do one more and then we'll take a little break here. Third base, Yoan Moncada and Cabrion Hayes are the two.

So Moncada, I almost want to just give him a pass completely for 2020. The problem is I understand why they're skepticism about Yohan Makata. He had 200 games

of being a low batting average, super-toolsy, high-strikeout guy in 2017 and 2018. Then he breaks out in 2019, cuts the strikeout rate, puts all the tools together, becomes one of the best hitters in baseball, great fantasy option. Then 2020, he goes right back to what he was in 2018 and 2019, like almost exactly the same numbers. Walk rate went back up to where it was, strikeout rate went back up to where it was, batting average went down.

totally get why we could just look at 2019 as, well, that's the outlier. My problem is, I don't know. He talked openly about how he just never felt right after recovering from coronavirus. And Scott Kingery is another player who talked about that. We've seen it in Miles Garrett is a good example of that in the NFL of a guy who just said it, Kim weeks to get right. And in the 2020 MLB season, there weren't weeks to get right. You know, he didn't have time to take off and you had nine weeks.

Do you fall somewhere in the middle on that? Are you more skeptical or less skeptical? Well, I was kind of a skeptic, you don't remember. We had some epic arguments about Yohan Makata, the two of us, specifically heading into last year. I thought it was a volatile profile to begin with and didn't, you know, the required investment was much higher. It was like,

I don't know, how early was he going last year, at least like round six. Yeah, in a Roto League. Yeah. And I just wasn't willing to do it, especially since it seemed like

he had to have an outlier strikeout rate for him to, that was a minimum requirement for him to be, to be even useful in fantasy. And then he didn't, like you said.

I mean, it wasn't just that. There was nothing redeeming about Yon Moncadas 2020. No. Like his everything was 19%. That's really bad. Everything just cratered the exit velocity. It was terrible. So you almost have to give him a pass because it was just too unbelievably bad.

And then he, you know, the COVID. Yeah, to put into context, his hard hit rate, his exit velocity, his max, his max, max exit velocity like they weren't just down his barrel rate they weren't just down from 2019 which was pretty much a career high across the board

it's worse than it had ever been you know this wasn't just like oh he just went back to being that guy who hit the ball hard but had struck out too much you know yeah no it's a good point so it's my ranking 13th here

is where I haven't did we mention that I gotta mention that we gotta mention where I actually have it 13th at the position. And like third base is weird. Third base is the hardest position to rank because virtually everybody underachieved at it in 2020. Remember it was considered

amazingly deep heading into the season. Like how could you go wrong at third base? You got to try and fit three third basemen on your roster. There's just so many to go around. And like nobody was good. Nobody was good. It was crazy. So, you know, just,

I bring that up because when I mention I have him behind, I have Moncada behind Gior O'Shella and ahead of Chris Bryant. I'm not even sure people listening can get a sense of what that means. But, you know, I have Josh Donaldson behind Moncada too, and then you get into less proven types like Brian Hayes, Alec Bohm, Justin Turner, who I think is about to fall out of usefulness and fantasy. J.D. Davis, Jamer, Candelari, Candelaria, Jamer Candelario. So I have Molkata at the tail end of that group, I guess, that toward the tail end of that group of underachieving third basement.

Some will have him higher, I'm sure. But I will have him higher. Yeah, it's, I thought he was overrated anyway coming off far and away his best season. And that's the biggest reason for it. Like he had to, he had to back up that. that season for me and clearly he didn't. Yeah, that's fair. So Hayes. What about Hayes? Brian Hayes. This is one where, so here's the difficult thing. We talked about this a little bit on the previous episode. You know, specifically about minor

leaguers, it's really hard to say who got better and who got worse in 2020. Because most of them we just didn't get to see play, the ones who did. You know, some of them were like a Brian Hayes where he played 24 games. And 24 games. games is, I mean, it's nothing. Some of them, Luis Patino, who we saw for, what, nine innings in the bullpen in a role that he won't be in. So there's going to be a lot of guys who looked better than they were, looked worse than they are, stuff like that.

And, you know, for Hayes, it's just you have him 16th at the position. You have them ahead of, you know, surprisingly, I think one Alec Bohm, who, you know, I think you like, you like, you know, I think you like, liked more certainly going into last season. He was your number four. They were probably 70 spots apart in my prospect. Yeah, he was your number four prospect, I think, going into last season or five.

Not that high, but like nine or something. He was top ten. And I was kind of alone in putting him that high. And, you know, obviously you love J.D. Davis. Or you did. Well, he disappointed. I did. He kind of went away from everything I loved him for last year.

So my question with Brian Hayes is So this is for the context For people who may not be aware 751 career OPS in AAA 752 career OPS in the minors Four hundred four hundred sixty one games Overall he put up an 1124 OPS last season

The majors 24 games How good of a hitter do you think he is Or does he Is he going to run enough let's say, to make up for whatever you think he might be lacking in the hitting department. Do you think he's an above-average major league hitter in 2021? Yes, yes. I am, my position on Cabrion Hayes has radically transformed based on those 24 games

because he was amazing. He was electrifying in those 24 games. He was, and I had a feeling, I had a feeling this might happen. I wasn't willing to rank him based on it, but I kept it in the back of my mind that this is a possible outcome for Cabrion Hayes, a guy who is ranked high among traditional prospect rankings, mostly for his defense, but largely because, you know, you were good defender because you're athletic, right? So there's a base level of athleticism there. And the contact rate was always good. And those same, one prospect that always stands out to me that shared those two same characteristics.

The scouts liked them. The contact rate was consistently high. The defensive rating was consistently high. Was Francisco Lindor. Come on. Don't that's not fair. When he got to the majors, suddenly it's like it all came,

together for him. And the same thing appeared to happen to Cabrian Hayes. He crushed the ball. He hit it to all fields. He crushed it to all fields. He had more over the fence power

than he ever showed in the miners. It was just, it was like, why, why did we not hear about this when he was coming up through the minor? I mean, obviously he wasn't producing like that,

but I just have a hard time seeing the guy who put on that kind of 24 game show going back to being like a 270 hitter with 13 home runs over a full season. It just does not compute for me. So, look, ranking of 16th at third base, obviously, you don't have to make a huge investment in him. There's not really much downside to taking him where he's going to go.

I just want to make sure I'm the guy who gets him because I'm very excited by what I saw from Cabrion Hayes in 2020. Would you like a wet blanket? Sure. not really but for the sake of the podcast sure you talked about max exevalo as a reason to buy into vladimer guerrero and k brian hayes of hitters of 350 hitters who had at least 50 bad at ball events last season ranked 121st in max exevalo at 110 now 121st out of 350's not bad it's like 65th percentile or something, but it's certainly not elite.

And it's not the elite rate that the 92.8 average exit velocity suggests. And so, you know, max exit velocity is kind of, it's a, I think the way to view it in this context would be it's a, it's a stand-in for like, you know, the, I mean, you know this, Scott, but, you know, raw versus game power on the scouting scale. you got, you know, a 55 game 70 raw power. That means a guy who's a slightly above average power header, but who is expected or could develop, you know, in, uh, and, you know, a one, that, that's kind of what the difference between like Max and Max Exevalo has the raw power stand in and it makes me think that maybe he overperformed just a little bit or, well, he obviously overreported.

Right, right, right. But even like the, the underlying. like the 92.8 eggs of my per hour average eggs of velocity and the underlying numbers. And so you know, and look, it's not him. It's not just him. You know, you had

someone like Dominic Smith only had a 110. And Glaver Torres actually was slightly behind Kibrian Hayesel the Glaver Torres didn't hit that well last season. But yeah, that would be the the wet blanket I would throw is that he obviously overperformed and, you know, I think the, the underlying stats, man,

Glaver Torres has never been good at Max Exivilo. He's never been good at average AXAVilo either. Playing Hancasternian helps, playing the Ores. I mean, has Mookie bets? I don't know that there are some players like that who just, you know, it's obviously not a perfect system. Yeah, I mean, look, it's a, it's a measurement of one aspect of a game. but you can overcome it. Yeah.

Yeah, Mokey ranked 22nd in 2016 in Max Exit Velocity. He only ranked 92nd in average eggs of velocity that year. So. Yeah. So, yeah, really, look, obviously, I can't say for sure who could Brian Hayes is going to be.

My mind is open to a new world of possibilities based on how good he was in those 24 games. I think he hits seven home runs, I mean... Five home runs and 24 games. Okay, five home runs and 24. And with a lot of doubles and triples, right? Yeah, seven doubles, two triples. Okay.

A lot of extra base heads and more over the fence than... A pace far different than he ever showed in the minor. So... But the thing is, like, you don't have to... I have him ahead of Alec Bohm, who has his own power concerns. He had four home runs and his 160 at Bats. Justin Turner, who, as I said, I don't know that he's going to be an everyday player anymore. The Dodgers seem like they're interested in moving on.

So we'll see. And J.D. Davis, who, you know, I'm not totally turning the page on him, but there's a lot more reason to doubt his offensive profile now. So it's just like, I don't know, it just seems like a no downside play at this point. And you're probably talking about like round 15 in a 12 team draft. I'll do it. That's fair. Every time. Every time.

All right. we're going to take a break. And when we get back, we'll talk about Shortstop. Chris is going to challenge me some more on Fantasy Baseball today. All right. We are back. We're looking at my rankings. Chris is telling me what's wrong with them.

We're going to move on to Shortstop. It occurs to me, though, speaking of Shortstop, that we haven't mentioned the big trade that happened? It's by design. It's by design. I just, you know, for people who may be confused, we did an emergency podcast about 15 minutes long when the Francisco Lindorz and Carlos Carrasca when they got traded to the Mets. So if you're looking for analysis on that, you can find it separately in the same feed there.

We broke it down as much as it could be broken down. And so now we get to look at more rankings on this podcast because of that. So that's with big breaking news, that's something we're going to be doing more often. But on this one, we are talking about my rankings. get back to it shortstop, Xander Bogart's, Marcus Simeon, you don't like where I have either of them. Yeah, I mean,

Zander Bogartz, it's kind of tough because the top of shortstop just seems really strong, and you also have two guys in Tim Anderson and at Alberto Modesey who, to a certain extent, a lot of their value in fantasy doesn't just come from the fact

that they're good hitters or in Modese's case at all from the fact that he's a good hitter, but whereas Zander Bogartz, it's kind of all the bat. You know, he is one of the best hitters in baseball. But Xander Bogart's behind Corey Seeger is really interesting to me. Because, you know, Zander Bogartz, we've seen him basically the last three seasons in particular,

has really just been one of the best hitters in the game. You know, took a big step forward in 2018, took another step forward in 2019, took a small step back in 2020, but I think still had a very, very good season. Isn't he kind of... I guess why Corey Segar over him? I'm all in on Corey Seeger. He was...

As amazing as he was last year, the expected stats say he should have been even better. I mean, he hit like Mike Trout, basically, and it continued into the play. He was one of the biggest stars of the playoffs. I guess Randy Aras Arena was the only one who topped him. I just think, I think this time next year, he's very likely to be a first round pick. And so, you know, it looks like a bigger separation in these roto rankings because I have Tim Anderson and Adelberto Mondeci in between.

They're elevated in that format, obviously, because they're going to contribute in stolen bases. In a points league, Xander Bogart's is right behind Corey Seeger for me. So that makes it maybe a little less glaring. They'll probably both be third round picks. Maybe Bogarts will slide to round four. I don't know. But they're being drafted very close together.

And I just think the ceiling for Seeger is higher at this point. Bogarts is safer, has a stabler track record. But I don't really, I don't really worry about Seeger taking. a big step back. I mean, when he's been healthy, he's been an early round stud himself and I think just took another step forward in his development in 2020. The only concern I would have would be, I do think Corey Seeker probably has a bit of a lower floor. Just because, you know, who he was

before last season. And obviously I was, you know, right there with you last season and loving him and thinking he was, you know, hugely undervalued. But, you know, who he was before that was, you know, more like a 22 to 24 homer guy, you know, didn't hit for quite as much bad. But then I started thinking about it and it's like, well, that's kind of who Corey Seeger was, or Zander Bogartz was before 2019 too. Right. So I, do you worry for Zander Bogartz, is there a little bit of a discount because of the lineup he's in? You know, the lack of counting stats last season was, you know, definitely a concern.

He was not on anywhere close to 100 run or RBI paste. Does that come into it at all? It didn't, but if you wanted to, if that makes the case better, sure. I'm just here to help for me. I'm just here to help, Scott. Let's move on to Simeon, though, because we're rapidly running at a time here.

Yeah, it just feels pretty low for a guy that you really liked. How much is there just 28, was a bit of a... 2019 was a bit of a fluke. How much is just how bad he was in 2020 playing into it? Do you think he's going to be better? I think there's a chance, but I'm not confident.

I mean, 2019, because what happened to... What Simeon did in 2020 makes 2019 look like a complete fluke. I mean, obviously it was heading into the season. I just...

I had hoped that there were some permissible, minute change is made that now I have real doubts about. So, you know, I have him just ahead of Jake Croninworth, who's also eligible at this position, and who we talked about. And Cronoworth is triple eligible? I believe so. First, second, short? I believe that's right, yeah.

So I have Cimeon just one spot ahead of him. So we're not talking about, we're not talking about like the stud range of players here, you know, at shortstop. We're beyond the studs here where I have Simian ranked. I have him behind D.D. Gregorius, behind Danesby Swanson. Really the start of a tier, probably. I'd probably tear Swanson and Gregorius together. And then below that, you get Simian and Croninworth, Chris Taylor,

a couple guys behind them, maybe. So it's, I'm not bearing him in the rankings, but I'm not investing in him either. because I just, I'm torn between the 60 game sample, is it completely meaningless, and pre-2019 looked a lot like the 60 game sample, you know? Sure.

All right, so let's move on to starting pitcher. Obviously, a lot of names Chris could have chosen here. He stuck with the two-per-position rule and went with Kinta Maeda and Denelson Lament. And Lament, I think I'm just, just going to be the low guy on LaMette. I'm worried about the injuries. I'm worried I don't quite buy the production jump that we saw.

I mean, we're still talking about a guy. I mean, it was less than six innings per start. The numbers were incredible. 12K per 9, 2.09 ERA with peripherals that largely back it up. He threw fewer innings in 2020 than he did in 2019. It was only four fewer innings, mind you. But it was still, you know, but that's the sample size we're talking about.

Right, but that's the sample size we're talking about. 2019, he was coming back from Tommy John's surgery. And before this, he had really been, you know, a low to mid-fours ERA guy. It was not a huge sample size either way, but neither was last year. And I actually don't need you to justify it because I totally get why.

You and everyone is in on Denelson Lament. Huge strikeout rate was awesome last year, great supporting cast. But for me, he's currently not healthy, which is a bit of a red flag for a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery in the very recent past. And I just, his profile, he throws two pitches. I know there seems to be some controversy

about whether he throws two different breaking balls. I don't think he does. I think it's just one breaking ball. I just, I don't know. I think that profile can go wrong. really easily. Like, I think we just saw, like, the 95th percentile outcome for him. And given the injuries, it's just I can't see any way I can draft Denelson

Lemette in the range that he's going to go in. But I get why people like that. What's funny is I tried to dial it back a little because I'm concerned about the health. I'm concerned that just one day we're going to wake up, like with Mike Clevenger this offseason and Nelson LeMet going in for a second, Tommy John. You have 19. Yeah. I want to rank him like 15th based on what he did.

So I'm kind of trying. I'm kind of trying to rank him so that I don't get him. Or if I do get him, it's like he's my number four because I went so aggressively at starting pitcher, you know? Yeah. And then so we'll just, Kent to my head,

just feels a little too rich for me. I think he barely averaged six innings per start last season. That was obviously a career high, even when you take out the relief pitch appearances. I think he's very good, I agree with you. He did have a 270 ERA last season with peripherals that totally matched it up. Has always been a good swing strike rate pitcher.

I have concerns about him being able to do it for a full 33 starts. Well, not... What's that? He's, of course, never done that before. The Dodgers never let him do that before. And that's always the question. Yeah.

You know. Yeah, I mean, the six innings, the start thing, a couple things. First of all, the pitch count was always low when they pulled him after six innings. And I think that shows he could have gone deeper if the twins needed him to, but they just didn't need him to. Sure. And also, there's not really anybody behind him or not many that I trust to be more than a six-inning pitcher. Lance Lynn, sure. because he's a few spots behind Maida,

but I don't think he's as good as Maida. And you know, you could go further down like a Framber Valdez, Zach Wheeler. Okay, yeah, they're more reliable than Kenta Maida for the innings, but obviously a lower class of starting pitcher. So, yeah, it was a bit,

it was a bit alarming to rank Maida's high as 11th. It was kind of a statement ranking, but it's partly because I, I'm not confident with what Walker Bueller, how the Dodgers are going to use him, so I had to put somebody ahead of Bueller. Yeah. And Jack Flaherty, you know, I think Jack Flaherty's fine, but he was, you know, the numbers weren't good.

The numbers weren't good. I think he's fine. He missed a lot of time because the Cardinals were shut down for so long. Yeah. And the numbers didn't end up in a good place. But peripherally, he still looks strong. Did he have COVID? He didn't have COVID.

I don't think he had COVID. Okay. I don't think he did. No, he didn't. So many of the Cardinals did. I lost track. Yeah, I don't think he did. Yeah.

But they got shut down for a long time, and he had to kind of ramp up all over again. So it totally messed up his season. Yeah. I think he's fine, but I don't know. I just feel more comfortable with Kintamaida. He was dominant, more dominant than I think most people will realize. I think he had the second best ex-fip or swinging strike rate or something like that among all qualifiers.

Yeah, he has 17.4% swinging strike rate, which is absurdly high for a start. pitcher. It was better than Shane Bieber's. Yeah. I would say I would probably go Flaherty and Bueller

over him. But yeah, I think it's probably more just one of those ones where I'm just not going to draft my Ada too much. I think Flaherty and

Bueller you're going to be in the majority on doing that. Yeah. I think those are the two that would be the easiest to rank over him.

I think that's just the knee-jerk thing to do actually. I think that's right. Outfielders, Trent Grisham and Teosker Hernandez, a couple of players

who weren't really being drafted in standard mixed leagues at this time a year ago. And they are, I mean, Grisham is what, 19th at outfielder? For you?

Let me check. Yeah, 17th. 17th in this format. Another one where the minor league track record doesn't quite back up what he did, although it's not, you know,

a huge outlier, necessarily, especially if you just look at 20, he had a really good 2019 season and you know there were some reports that I saw that he had you know the one of the reasons the Padres went after him in the trade for Luis Arias was you know he had posted really impressive you know underlying batted ball data in the minor league parks where he had played it it just feels what do you expect him to be

it's like what's a comp a comp hmm well okay let me just first of all say before I answer that question that's harder to answer sure it's roto yes he runs yes that makes a huge difference yes that makes a huge difference he stole 10 bases in that limited sample was a 10 10 10 guy if you project that out that's like a 20 25 25 season

or something like that yep almost exactly yeah So that's the biggest thing here is he runs. Okay, yeah. One of the things that's hard about that is he basically had one season in the minors where he ran like that. He had 12 stolen bases in 97 games, 13 if you include the majors in 2019, so 13 and about 140-something games, and then 11 and 107.

But going back to 2017, he had 30s. in 133. So it is a lot riding on the stolen bases. That is, I guess, the one concern I would have. Is he, like, if you just project out his numbers, are they that different from Kyle Tucker's? I mean, he's kind of a less hyped version of Kyle Tucker, I feel like. Worst batting average.

It was, but, you know, he underachieved his expected batting average by like 12 points. Yeah. No, it's not much worse, but Kyle Tucker did have a much stronger track record in the minor. Of course. And I didn't rank Kyle Tucker ahead, and, you know, nobody could change my mind on that. But I'm just saying, like,

if you take Grisham's numbers at face value and there's potential to believe he's a little better than that, even, there's obviously no reason to quibble over this ranking. And, you know, maybe, maybe it was a fluke, but there were a lot of people believing in him going into the year, too. And I think clearly he made a strong case that he's here to stay. So, yeah, I feel good about that one.

Trent Grisham 17th in Roto. All right, relief pitcher. Last position here. Trevor Rosen, obviously talking about relief pitcher rankings. It's going to be really hard. There's a lot of free agents out there, including one of these guys. Trevor Rosenthal and Craig Kimbril.

Yeah, obviously if Rosenthal doesn't sign as a team's closer, you will move him a lot down. I have an eighth right now. But in between Kirby Yates, also a free agent. By the way, Kirby Yates is behind Brad Hand also a free agent. And Kirby Yates, the Dodgers are interested in him, which would be very bad for his value. Well, or very bad for Kenley Janssen's value.

I don't think they're going to take Kenley Janssen out of the role. He deserves to be out of the role They keep toying with it in the playoffs Because they clearly don't have a lot of faith in him at this point But they never did it You know, they haven't like just taken him out yet And they haven't had a Kirby Yates yet They had a Blake Trining

Oh come on He's good No comparison Um Yeah Rosenthal though man Like he this was a guy who I mean he wasn't out of baseball

But he was certainly a forgotten man before 2020. So how much of it is just you just buy the way the stuff plays up in the bullpen? You know, 14.4K per 9 in 2020, 23 games. But, you know, the performance, even as a reliever, was a pretty big outlier compared to recent season.

seasons. Yeah. No, he was, he was amazing. He was the best we've ever seen Trevor Rosenthal be. And that's saying something because, you know, he was a noteworthy closer for having the injuries before. Really, control was, even when he was good, control was a major problem for him. And it's just like he figured that out last year. Uh, it wasn't a problem for him anymore. He was still throwing 100 miles per hour like he was before Tommy John surgery. It was, It was Tommy Johnny had, right? 38 strikeouts in 23 and 2 3rds innings, man. Like, 2020 was not a good year for,

there weren't a lot of like stud relief performances, especially from pitchers in line for saves. So Rosenthal, I think he ended up being the top closer and the top relief pitcher in one of the formats. I should have, that's the thing I would have looked up and put in notes that I don't have. I may be wrong about that, but if memory serves, if he wasn't number one,

it was very high up. It wasn't point, so it might have been row, though. Yeah, I don't know. I could be completely wrong. But, you know, if you use kind of my starting point for rankings is, okay, where these guys finished last year? And then adjust from there. And it was, you know, it was pretty easy to justify Rosenthal this high,

considering that. You know, there's so much volatility of relief pitcher anyway. these guys don't have they don't last long yeah they're not they're not one thing for very long

yeah tip generally speaking and so like I don't need a long track record really to to influence where I rank them because like who knows

it's it's fleeting that's fair closers are fleeting relievers are fleeting I will point out one thing about the other closer that I picked, Craig Kimbrel. I was high on him coming into last year.

His numbers overall were very bad. 528 ERA. Really bad control. But, but... But... He basically had five bad outings to start the season. He basically had, like, a bad week and a half. His first appearance was on July 27th.

His fourth appearance was on August 4th, or August 6th, excuse me. In those four appearances between then, he gave up seven earned runs. in three innings. That's real bad. Five walks in those three innings, only two strikeouts. From that point on, his final 14 outings, 12 and 2 thirds innings, 142 ERA, 26 strikeouts, still a decent number of walks,

but not nearly as bad. It was around a 14% walk rate. I will just point out, Craig Kimberle, we said this at the start of last season that we would have to watch out for guys who had really bad stretches and otherwise performed. well or, you know, vice versa. I think Kimberl is better than his numbers indicate. 2019 obviously was a disaster,

but I think he had a very good excuse for why it was. He didn't get to pitch until July. Through no fault of his own, I will be drafting quite a bit of Craig Kimbril again in 2020. And, or 2021, excuse me, I'm going to make that mistake a lot. And one thing I really like for, Craig Kimbril, the Cubs have a very high, a very strong incentive. to get him a lot of saves this season.

Yeah. Because they would love to trade him by July. Yeah, you'd think so. That's a good point. My thought was, I agree with your breakdown of Craig Kimball's season. I think he proved he's still good in a very under-the-radar way. The Cubs and David Ross were so reluctant to move him back into the role that I just wonder if they're going to feel the same way.

But maybe that trade angle will make it easier to justify. and then I can move them up in my rankings. But he's 14th for now, and we are done for now. I think, I think, I think we did pretty well. I think that was fun. I hope people enjoyed it. Contrary to popular belief,

we're actually pretty talented. And we don't need notes. Well, you need notes. Nobody. We don't. I'm a hack. You do? No, I'm a hack.

You're talented. I'm a hack. Oh, please. Whatever. Just look at that shirt. Pictures of your dog all over. Yeah. Check out.

YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. check out that's Stevie Nick's that's the puppy and there's like a hundred of him on my shirt. Yeah. Yep, talent right there. All right. We'll see you later. Bye-bye.