Fantasy Baseball Today - 2022 Starting Pitcher Recap! Early Strategy Talk (12/6 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 6, 2022

What is the current state of starting pitching (3:15)? ... Let's start with Verlander, Alcantara and Alek Manoah (7:50). ... What happened to Corbin Burnes in the second half (12:51)? ... Carlos Rodon proved he's legit (18:10). ... Gerrit Cole continues to struggle with home runs (21:31). ... News (31:18): Zach Eflin signed with the Rays while Kyle Gibson signed with the Orioles. ... Will Kyle Wright be undervalued (38:55)? ... Shane Bieber changed his pitching style in 2022 (43:00). ... Cristian Javier and Triston McKenzie have a lot in common (45:50). ... Will Spencer Strider be overvalued (51:45)? Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Last but not least, we have finally dated to pitching. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, December 6th. Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White.

And we're jumping into starting pitchers with a recap. of the top 24 from this past season and should be a lot of fun. Scotty, as promised, I am wearing a Santa hat. You are wearing a Santa hat. We are all sented out. What's going on, bud? Santa Baby.

Slip a stable under the tree for me. Is that your jam? It's fine. It's fine, Jam. I feel like we've talked about this a bunch of times. Your favorite Christmas song or holiday song is... Oh, I like really traditional stuff. Like, basically.

Christmas hymns. So, you know, like Hark the Herald Angels sing, stuff like that. That's more for me. The classics. The classics. Oh, you know what? I'm looking at our Santa hats here and we, I don't know, it's kind of odd that two, two, both of us are wearing red.

Only one guy should get to wear the red one, you know? Why? Like, one of us should be the elf, shouldn't we? Which of us should be the elf? I do not, I do not have an elf hat, Scott. so I'm out. That's too bad. That's too bad.

Here's the plan for the next two weeks, by the way. We're going to elongate our starting pitcher recap and early preview for next season because, frankly, there's so many pitchers to talk about. So today we're going to do a recap, as I mentioned, on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, we will get a pitcher prospect part one with the Welsh, and then next week we'll have early starting pitcher ranks, and then prospects part two, also with. with the Welsh. So that's the breakdown for the next coming weeks. But let's just jump in, Scotty, and we'll talk about,

I guess, a macro look at starting pitching, and then we'll just, like, jump into all the, these specific players. But, all right. League-wide starting pitching, and we've said this plenty of times, but much better than recent seasons, specifically starting pitchers.

4.05 ERA is the lowest we've seen since 2014. Who! Fangraphs has league-wide pitching stats dating all the way back to 1993. 1.26 whip among starting pitchers the best that we have seen since they started tracking it. Wow. Just puts it in perspective how much parity there is,

how many viable starting pitchers there were, and how deep this position really was this past season. It's kind of weird because strikeouts were actually down according to strikeout rate and K per 9, but balls in play were not nearly as dangerous. We know that home run to fly ball ratio was the lowest it's been since 2015. And Scott, again, as a result, better pitching overall.

And that's why our early strategy looks like we can at least pass on pitchers in the first three, maybe four rounds. And then really dive into the position because it's much deeper than we've seen in years past. Yeah. I mean, that's how I think we should approach it. I know I've been one of the more vocal people I feel like about drafting pitcher early in recent years. I didn't like it. for all my time doing fantasy, which goes back to the 2008 season,

I was basically the opposite end of the spectrum. I was like, don't pay for pitching. It's volatile. And there are a lot of redundancies there. And you're more likely to find an emergent option there in the middle rounds or even during the season than among the hitter ranks.

And then during the. during the juice ball era, which lasted from 2016 to 2020 or 2021. It definitively ended in 2022. We can say that much with it going back to home run to fly ball rate the lowest since 2015, which is the year before the juice ball era. So we'll say 2016 through 2021. We'll call that the juice ball era. And it was a topsy-turvy time in fantasy because pitchers were still volatile.

They were still fragile. They were still not safe investments, but they were where you could get the most differentiation. That was the position where you could distinguish yourself the most from your peers. And the hitter ranks were where there were all the redundancies and where investing early at a position wouldn't necessarily buy you a clear advantage there. So thankfully that era is over. and we can get back to a more traditional approach hitting versus pitching. I think it's going to take some people time to recalibrate. You know, 2016, we're talking about six years ago that this started.

For a lot of people, that covers their whole time playing fantasy baseball. So it's, you can take advantage of them having to recalibrate and maybe not pivoting as quickly. And, you know, the other thing is, Some people might look at last year and say, okay, well, it was just, you know, we shouldn't, we shouldn't undo everything. We shouldn't overturn everything we know about fantasy baseball because of one year. It could just be a fluke. But we know what's behind it. We know that there was a deliberate effort to deaden the baseballs. We know that humidors were installed everywhere. And we know what kind of effect a humidified baseball has, or the, the environment has on a humidified baseball. And so the reasons home runs were suppressed totally makes sense. All right. Well, there's there's there's no reason to think it was just a one-off unless unless baseball decides to change all those variables again. Which would not surprise me

one bit, Scott, because they have changed environments. They have changed baseballs. They have changed a lot year over year, even month over month over the past couple of years. So it's been tough to figure out. But obviously, I think we need to move forward with. the environment that we just saw and obviously we just broke that down. So let's get into the recap of specific pitchers and I've got the top 24 here from this past season and we're gonna go in clusters of three

kind of like we did for the outfield position, Scott. And let's start off with the top three. Justin Verlander, who we did an emergency podcast on earlier in the day. So if you want to hear more of a breakdown of his, it doesn't really change much with him going to the New York Mets but if you want to hear us talk about maybe the early value on a Justin Verlander and his ADP.

You can go check that out. But Verlander finished as the fourth overall player in Roto this past season, the top starting pitcher, and he was the American League's Salyung Award winner, a huge bounceback season coming back from Tommy John surgery. Sandy Alcantara. Sandy! The National League Salyng Award winner finished 11th overall in Roto. Just a ton of volume here.

It's got 228 and two-thirds innings for Sandy Al-Consora. by far the most in baseball. The next closest was Aaron Nola with 205 innings. Sandy, much better control command than we've ever seen before with him. And actually, Alec Manoa, if you eliminate Otani because he ranks very highly in Rodo because of his offensive production as well, Manoa was the third best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, 18th overall, 2.24 ERA, a whip just below 1, 25 quality starts that was tied for second most in baseball.

Three names here, Scott, three very different pitchers at three very different time periods in their career. Verlander, Sandy, Alec Manoa. Yeah, Alec Mano is the surprising one. I would have taken me, I would have guessed quite a few pitchers before I got to him finishing third this past year. And he's the one of these three who isn't going to, isn't really going to be in the running for number one overall pitcher next year. because I think there are reasons to expect regression, especially with the 224 ERA, because he's less than a strikeout per inning.

I think we got his, I think we got Alec Mnoy's absolute best case scenario in 2022. And while he's really good, while I'd be fine with him as my ace, there are at least a dozen pitchers I'd rather have than him. So Justin Verlander and Sandy Alconda, the two who finished ahead of him, are actually, depending on the scoring format,

one is my number Verlander is my number one pitcher in in 5 by 5 leagues, Roto leagues Alcantro is my number one pitcher for next year in points leagues Verlander we kind of got into this in the emergency pod

how early A to P he's going 11th among starting pitchers which I think is totally an ageist response the fact he'll be 40 last year I understand it sounds scary but I think given all

the risk factors for a pitcher ages is like very low on the list because it doesn't matter how old you are. You're very likely to get hurt. I think the best indicator that you won't get hurt that you hold to hold up over a whole year over a big workload is that you've done it before, especially you've done it lots of times before as Verlander has. So I actually consider it almost a mark in his favor that he's been around that long. He's proven his how, there's a better word, but durable.

He's proven how durable he is. So, yeah, I like Verlander number one for five by five leagues. Alcantra, what really sets him apart. You mentioned it, Frank, is the volume. And not just overall innings. This is an amazing staff for Alcantra in 2022. 14 times, 14 of his 32 starts, nearly half of them. he went not just six innings or more, not just seven innings or more, eight innings or more in nearly half his starts.

It is unheard of. It's like something from 30 years ago. And obviously in points leagues where innings are worth three points apiece, that's really valuable. Now, I expect Alcantra to regress in some areas too. He had a 228 ERA this past year. that's compared to a 292 XERA, 299 FIP, 329XFIP. So those three ERA estimators are very close in their estimates for what Alcantara should have done. And I think that's a fair estimate of who is still really good marks if his ERA was that,

but obviously it's not 228. So that's why Alcantra is not a clear cut number one in Roto leagues necessarily. And some people might try to ding Sandy Alcantra. for the lower K-per-9 and the lower strikeout rate overall. But because he throws as many innings as he does, 207 strikeouts this past season finished eighth among starting pitchers. So I don't know that we would expect him to throw 230 again. It just seems kind of hard to repeat that much volume,

but I still think he's the odds-on-favor to lead baseball in innings pitch again this upcoming season. Pitchers 4 through 6 this past year included Julio Arias, 21st overall in Rodo, Corbin Burns, who was 26 overall, and Dylan Sees, who is 28th overall in Roto as well. Julio Reyes got even better than he was in 2021. He now has 37 wins over the past two seasons.

That is the most in baseball. No other pitcher even has 30. Julio Reyes has 37. That is a massive total for him. Corbyn Burns, we know that he had a rough stretch in the second half, Scott. It was specifically a seven-start stretch from August through September,

where he had a 5.62 ERA and a 1.2 7 whip. I dug into it. There was nothing that I could really point to. I mean, maybe he was just unlucky. Swinging strikes were down a little bit during that time, but overall, still a fantastic year for Corbyn Burns. And then Dylan Sees really, really broke out. 2.2 ERA, 1.11 whip.

227 strikeouts were fifth most in baseball, really just leaning into that slider, which is one of the best, maybe the best in all of baseball. And it seems to be a formula that works for Dylan Seas. So three more pitchers here, Scottie, Julio Arias, Corbyn Burns, and Dylan Sees. So Burns looks like the odds-on favorite to go number one among starting pitchers last year. And I'm of two minds as far as that goes.

He did exceed 200 innings. He got to 202, which is a big milestone for a starting pitcher, particularly one who makes himself out to be an ace. That was an increase from 167 the year before. So I wasn't confident he could get to 200. but he's shown he can. That being said, his effectiveness

slipped a bit, as you mentioned. Was it related to that increase in innings? The fact it happened in the second half makes you wonder. It could have been just bad luck, like you say. But that's why I have him,

that's why I have Verlander, and I don't think just Verlander ahead of him, ahead of Burns heading into next year, is, you know, I'd rather see him, I'd like to see Burns do it more than once, and it's not like in terms of ratios,

he really stands out from somebody like a Verlander. But really good, obviously. Yeah, Aureas, you know, that's the wins. He pitches for the Dodgers, and he's probably the most stable starting pitcher the Dodgers have. So I would expect that to remain the case for Aureas, and to remain a big winner. The Dodgers are going to remain a big winner.

There's no doubt. he's also very reliable for ERA. He is one of those pitchers, Reyes, who is unusually good at limiting hard contact. And so you look at a number like X-FIP, it's never going to look that strong for him, but X-ERA has consistently been good for him. I'm normally not somebody who appreciates X, or who favors X-E-R-A for pitchers who counts on them. limiting hard contact year after year,

but the fact of Rias has already done it for so long, I would say he's an exception to that preference. And that preference may be weakening anyway, given that the ball's playing differently now and all forms of contact are less dangerous than they were before. That's another reason why I am, I'm pretty bullish on Arias. The downside for Rias is that he doesn't take on the biggest workload.

he's he's durable in terms of not going on the IL but he has yet to have even a 190 inning season much less 200 so that's going to push him outside of the the top 12 for me one thing i wanted to ask you scott about Arias and i guess the Dodgers pitching staff in general with the shift band coming this year these are pitchers that have routinely run really low babbs and that's why we see the ERA indicators much higher for someone like Kulio Reyes compared to his actual ERA. Any concern there that maybe the Dodgers have done a really good job maximizing the shift and getting the most out of their defense, which obviously helps their pitchers? Whereas maybe they can't do that as much moving forward without the shift.

Any thought? Well, I hadn't thought about it. It stands to reason that could be a factor. Like I said, all forms of contact are less dangerous. now. And Arias, he's not, he's not especially ground ball prone, right?

Plus, he's a left-hander, so you would think teams are mostly batting a bunch of righties against him, which would make for fewer end-field shifts. So, I mean, I don't have actual data on that, but it just stands to reason.

I would not factor that so much into my assessment for him, but it's something, it's kind of a, it's a broader idea worth considering maybe with other pitchers. Yeah, particularly ground ball-heavy types. Yeah, I agree with that.

I mean, I guess we could bring it up when we talk about Framber Valdez, but, you know, it's something worth considering, especially as many ground balls as Framber Valdez does get. Starting pitcher seven through nine from this past season, U. Darvish finished 29th overall in Roto. He was actually fourth best in fantasy points per game. Just a ton of quality starts, 25 of them. That was tied for second most.

Big bounceback year for U. Darvish's past season. Carlos Rodan now proved that he can do it nearly over the course of an entire year. So for those who are worried about Rodon's health like me, shame. Shame on you. And then Zach Gallen was number nine this past year. 34th overall in Rodo. Another one like Rodon, if you're worried about the elbow, the four on the shoulder. Multitude of injuries for Zach Allen, shame on you because he was ridiculous,

thanks by just an insane second half, Scott. 1.49 ERA, 0.74 whip, up over 10K per 9 for Zach Gowan. I looked into it. He did up his curveball usage quite a bit. It went from 19% in the first half to 26% in the second half. And that is a nasty, nasty curveball for Zach Gowan. Three pretty intriguing names here, Scotty. You, Darvish, Carlos Rodon, Zach Gellon.

Yeah. So Carlos Rodon is my favorite moving forward. I mean, he's the one who had the ridiculous strikeout rate. And he's now proven his durability two years in a row. Remember, he kind of fell off late in 2021, and there were some concerns as he entered free agency. That's why he signed a short-term deal with the Giants. Back on the open market, coming off a new career high innings. And without really falling off like he did before, he was, you know, his 12K per nine led the majors.

He actually led the majors in FIPP 2.25. So I think Carlos Rodan is the most, the one you could most safely call an ace of these three. Udarvish, his ups and downs are going to kind of hold him back. I think he's capable of doing this again. But we've just seen so much inconsistency from Darvish throughout his career. Remember going into last year, he had plenty of, we had plenty of concerns for Udarvish as well

because his 2021 second half was just a total disaster. He's no spring chicken. You dervish. No, it's not a young guy. So, yeah, that's what I have to say about him. Zach Allen, yeah, I was really concerned about Zach Allen. We both were.

Because of, yeah, I mean, and he was, he had that elbow issue and where it looked like he had some UCL damage at some point in 2021. and the swinging strike rate fell off over the course of the rest of the season. So to see him bounce back like he did, I have a feeling his value is going to be inflated quite a bit from the second half

and it's going to price me out of the Zach Gowan competition again because he wasn't, at least season long, strikeout rate, certainly swinging strike rate. They were still pretty modest. But he did pitch much better down the stretch, as he said, and the final numbers are very strong. 9.4 K-Per-9, you know, that's not so ace-like. But a career-best walk rate,

and certainly no health concerns for Zach Gallen right now. All right, let's move on to 10 through 12. From this past season, we had Garrett Cole, who finished 35th overall in Roto, Aranola, 37th overall in Roto, and Shane McClanahan, who was 38th overall in Roto. So Garrett Cole led baseball with 257 strikeouts. He also led the American League with 33 home runs allowed.

I think you can point to the ex-Phib Scott and the Sierra and say, man, Garrett Cole was unlucky, but this is now two years in a row where his ERA has actually been a decent bit higher than his ERA indicators. I think this is kind of just where he's going to live. Low to mid-3s ERA, a ton of strikeouts. Garic Cole is still really valuable. He's just not that standout SPW. that we have seen in years past. Arindola, big bounceback year for him,

3.25 ERA, 0.96 whip, 235 strikeouts. Those were fourth most in baseball. And his control was just otherworldly. 1.3 walks per 9. 70% first pitch strike percentage. So really taking advantage and getting ahead of hitters this past year.

Shane McClanhan is kind of a toughie to figure out, Scott, because everyone knows I loved Shane McClanahan coming into the year. You know, when he was being drafted around, pick 100. Now you're probably going to have to use a second or third round pick on him. He was still really, really good, but he dealt with a shoulder injury

last year, and after he returned, his final four starts, he had an ERA over five, his swinging strike rate was below 10%. They were tough matchups, two against Houston and two against Toronto, so maybe that's something to do with it, but I kind of want to hear or see more from

Shane McClanahan in the offseason and spring training before I'm looking to invest. So three awesome pitchers, but, you know, some mild concerns with some of them. Garrett Cole, Aaron Nola, Shane McClain. Yeah, I think the most concerning thing for Cole and why, for me, he's not really in the discussion to go number one overall next year. I still have them ranked high, but not number one overall, is because he is now the

clearest ERA liability among that high, high end group of starting pitchers at a time when ERAs are going down, Garrett Cole's coming off of ear with the 350 ERA. That's just, I mean, it's, that's bad. And the FIPP was 347. I mean, it was right there with it. He's, he remains home run prone as that's becoming less of a concern for other pitchers.

So it's kind of leaving Garrett Cole behind. Did lead the majors and strikeouts. So there's still a lot to like there. Yankees are going to provide him with lots of run support, you would imagine. and a chance to win a lot of games. But yeah, he's, he is clearly an ERA liability, especially given the amount that you'd have to pay for him,

the range that he's going to be drafted in. And I share our concerns for Shane McClanahan. You know, he hasn't taken on that big workload yet, and as the innings piled up this past year, his effectiveness really dropped off. maybe it was just the shoulder impingement. It was an ill-timed injury, and it impacted him. But the fact he suffered that injury as the innings began to pile up,

I think is not necessarily cause for relief either with Shane McClanahan. So he'll be ranked very high for me too, higher than he finished, 12th among starting pitchers. because he was certainly on pace to finish better than that if he hadn't missed that time toward the end of the year. But the concerns are great enough that, I mean, the concerns are great enough for a lot of those high-end guys that are probably just going to pass them all over, right? Whether you're talking age for Verlander or ERA for Greg Garrett Cole or durability for Shane McClainahan, like there are big enough question marks with that high, high-end group of starting pitchers that's just like, you know, there are a lot of really good ones after that because, of how much easier pitching has become with all the changes that we talked about. So we talked about that a little bit on the emergency podcast, Scott,

but maybe things will change in ADP and the way people are drafting. But right now, you can get someone like Justin Verlander or Zach Wheeler or Max Scherzer in the fourth round of drafts. It seems like I don't know why Wheeler is being undervalued, but those other two probably because of age, right? So are you still willing to pass on those guys, even if they're going at this cost? There's like a fourth round pick, something like that. Well, less likely Verlander, if I'm ranking them number one,

than a Zach Wheeler who you mentioned, who would, I don't remember exactly where I haven't ranked, but closer to 12th. But here's the thing. I, for, for Roto League specifically, had to head points a little different, of course. But for Roto leagues, 5 by 5 scoring, I wouldn't take any pitcher in round one or two. I don't care who is there with the 24th pick.

I'm not taking him. So if I wouldn't even consider any starting pitcher till round three, it's hard for me to say that in round four, I'd have to jump at whoever happens to be there, no matter how good he is. Because no starting pitchers worth taking until round three for me. And I'm saying it's not even a given. I take one in round three.

I think just based on our, I think you and I both kind of draft similarly and that we use like a tier-based approach. And it seems like there's a top seven or eight starting pitchers that are all within that top tier. If they're slipping into like the third or fourth round, then I'm going to be very tempted to do something like that. I generally agree. I mean, first two rounds,

it just doesn't seem necessary with how deep the elite starting pitchers are this upcoming season. But we still have some time to see how that kind of shapes out. As we get into like February and March. To put it in perspective, Alec Manoa, who you said finished third this past year, I'm ranking him 14th. Julio Arias, who you said ranked what, fourth?

I'm ranking him 17th. U. Darvish, who you pointed out ranked 7th, finished 7th, this past year. I'm ranking U. Darvish 19th. And the reason I'm doing that isn't so much because I think they're bad. Certainly, I don't think Julio Reyes or Alec Manoa's is bad. Darvish gives me a little more pause, but he's probably going to have a good year too. It's just because there are that many other pitchers who can slot in between them and be just as good, if not better.

And so that's a really deep class, unlike we're used to seeing in recent years at this position. position. And there's a really strong middle class at starting pitcher two, which was completely eliminated during the worst of the juice ball years so that you really had to have a standout starting pitcher or you might as well have not had a pitcher at all. And as a result of pitching being better and just this overall offensive environment, there are less standout hitters, truly elite standout hitters. You know, I mean, once you get into the third, fourth round, it feels like the hitters that you're getting in those rounds are not,

they don't stand out as much compared to the hitters. You'll get like two or even three rounds later. So it's also kind of jumbled up at that point. There's a clear drop off, I think, in the hitter ranks after. It's a little later than that. But it gets really gross at, I need to do a more, I need to do a few more amount drafts to get a better sense of winning.

exactly it is, but it might be as early as like round seven. It might be more like round 10. But somewhere in that range, if you're still shopping for hitters after that, is you're really, you're really not going to like what you get. It's either sell out for upside or settle for mediocrity. All right. Well, let's hit a quick break. But before we do that, you may have noticed that we are putting out some short form content recently on our YouTube channel, but we are also putting it on our TikTok account. So if you have TikTok, make sure to follow us at FBTPod. Again, we have all these 30-second, one-minute videos coming out.

I clip some stuff from our Verlander and Trey Turner discussion. So again, you can find that on TikTok. The link is in the podcast and the YouTube description. Let's take a break, and we'll be back right after this. All right, before we get back into starting picture recap, I do have some news and notes, some smaller signing, Scott, that we haven't gotten to in the past couple of days. Zach Eflin signed with the Tampa Bay raise on a three-year $40 million

dollar deal. And this past year, an ERA just over four, a 1.1-2 whip, that's actually pretty good. The underlying numbers look even better for Zach Eflin. We know he has that nasty curveball, 155 batting average against, and a 43.5% whiff rate. The question will be, can Tampa Bay work their magic and get the best out of Zach Eflin? It wouldn't surprise me. He's not a priority or anything in drafts, but I think he's just a name to remember considering he's now on Tampa Bay. Yeah, this is a weird one because that's a lot of money for Zach Eflin, for any team to give him, but especially the race. Was it 3.40, like you said, three years, 40 million. That's the biggest free agent contract in Ray's history.

They're giving it to Zach Eflin, a guy who's only once had an ERA under four, and that was 397 ERA in 2020. And it has a history of knee problems on top of it. And this is the guy that Rays are shelling out for. it's interesting. I mean, given that they're the rays, I'm inclined to think they see something here that the rest of us don't. And I will point out,

Zach Eflin had a 327XERA this past year despite having a 404 ERA. Started using the curveball more as the year went on, especially in relief, and that seems to be his best pitch. So maybe the rays are thinking they're going to encourage him to emphasize that even more and maybe

Zach Eflin becomes something pretty special but I'm not I'm not I'm not rocketing about my rankings or anything I'm not making them a huge priority in drafts he just he becomes kind of a fringe sleeper

for me I guess with this news all right well are you going to rocket Kyle Gibson up your ranking Scott because he signed a one year deal with the Baltimore Orioles and this past season through August, he was actually kind of serviceable as a streamer type 4.08 ERA, 1.20 whip. Final six starts, 9.73 ERA, 1.99 whip for Kyle Gibson. Honestly, it's got the, the biggest takeaway I have for this is that it might take away a starting job from somebody

more interesting for the Baltimore. Since they have, obviously, this isn't going to stop Grayson Rodriguez from, you know, getting. the call whenever they want them to. But, you know, does this allow them to keep Dio Hall in the bullpen or even someone like Kyle Bradish who flashed a little bit towards the end of the season? You know, those are the biggest takeaways for me on this. Yeah, probably not. I mean, first of all, I would say nobody's that interesting other than Grayson Rodriguez. So it's hard to get that stressed about it in fantasy. I mean, Kyle Gibson, who is not that interesting himself, might be more interesting than Kyle Bradish.

But, you know, they could kick out Tyler Wells, Austin both. They have other pitchers they can shed before they get to the more interesting ones. All right. Carlos Estevez signed with the Angels, a reliever who comes over from the Rockies. He does have some closing experience. So perhaps he can work his way into the mix. I don't think that they have a dedicated closer. I mean, Jimmy Hergett was closing down the stretch for them.

And he was okay. But, you know, perhaps this is some kind of open competition, but just a name to remember in deeper, Rodolese, Carlos Estevez. Other tidbits. You see the terms of that deal? Two years, 13.5 million for Carlos Estevez? Like, the relief pitcher market is crazy. Pointed it out a few times. But why is that guy getting $7 million a year?

What? I haven't looked into his home road splits, but maybe he's performed well outside of Colorado in his career. That's the only thing I could think of. the RP market's crazy. Yeah. It is. And I saw Liam Hendrix is being shopped, or that there's interest from teams in Liam Hendricks.

And maybe it's because his contract looks pretty good now, relatively speaking. Yeah. And look, if teams are willing to shell out some crazy contracts for relievers, who knows what some team might be willing to trade to get a Liam Hendricks. So we'll see what happens there. I mean, I guess if they traded him, Kendall Graveman would be, the next man up in Chicago, but we'll see what happens. I mean, obviously the Rockies, the White Sox have designs on competing.

So it's, you know, I'm not, I'm not sure it's going to happen, but it is something, it is an idea that has been tossed out there doing the other. Other tidbits worth mentioning here, Mookie Betts could play more second base in 2023, according to manager Dave Roberts. Chris Bryant, quote, looks good. And the Rockies are optimistic that he'll be healthy for the start of spring training. He only played 42 games this past season due to plants our fasciitis. Sean Murphy is atop the Cardinals list of trade candidates.

And on Sunday night, we got a report that there was a trade close to being done for Sean Murphy. But no details came out after that. It's someone linked into the Braves and then that got squashed. It sounded like the Braves were the front runners at first. but then that got shut down. It doesn't really make sense. Which makes sense. Yeah, because they have Travis Darno and William Contreras.

I had no idea what was going on there. But yeah, I mean, a team like the Cardinals would make more sense for Sean Murphy with, yeah, your Molina, of course, being retired now. We'll have to wait and see, though. The Rockies have begun conversations with Cody Bellinger, who, again, was non-tendered by the Dodgers. He is an unrestricted free agent. He could choose to sign wherever he wants. I think the Astros have been. link to Cody Bellinger as well. So either way, that would be a pretty awesome rebound landing spot

the Rockies or the Astros for Cody Bellinger. Brian Reynolds has requested a trade from the Pirates, though we have heard his name pop up in trade rumors in the past. And Fred McGriff was the lone player elected to the Hall of Fame by the contemporary era committee on Sunday. Scott, any thoughts or congratulations to Fred McGriff? I mean, I have fond memories of Fred McGriff from his time with the Braves. When I really first got into baseball, he was their cleanup hitter. I don't think he's really a Hall of Famer.

This isn't as bad as Harold Baines, but it's closer to that level than being legit, I think. And I thought certain other players who were, who the Veterans Committee or whatever they're calling it now could have voted in, who were on the ballot for them, made a whole lot more sense. to be elected in the Hall of Fame.

So it's just kind of hard to take seriously after a while. Yeah. I'll tell you what, it's not looking too good for Barry Bonds and some of those other PED users from the 90s. Well, and yeah, I mean, Kurt Schilling has his own baggage, but he on performance is an obvious Hall of Fame too. And I don't think he has PED suspicions, right? No, no, no, no.

He's basically got everything but PED accusations. going on with Kerr Chilling. Let's get back into starting pitchers and we're going to get from, we're going to go from 13 through 24. And now 13 through 15 specifically, you've got Max Fried in this mix followed up by Framber Valdez and Kyle Wright's of two of your Atlanta Braves in this mix here, Scotty. Max Fried, kind of a Sandy Alcansra light. Awesome ratios just does not provide the same level of volume as somebody like Sandy Alcantra does. Framber Valdez set the single season record with 25 straight quality starts this past season. His velocity did take a jump,

and also he added a new cutter that he used 10% of the time, which was a really good pitch for him. So now he's got that demon sinker, nasty curveball, and a cutter that he can mix in as a third pitch, which definitely helps. And then Kyle Wright, speaking of a new pitch curveball that he threw this year, 34% of the time.

He's had it in the past, but it sounded like he reshaped the, pitch and he leaned all the way into it. It was his most used pitch Scott and it was a breakout season for the former first round pick in Kyle Wright. So three, you know, younger is starting pitchers here who really kind of took that next step. Max Fried, Framber Valdez and Kyle Wright. Now, these are three extreme ground ball pitchers. Valdez especially is kind of an outlier in terms of ground ball rate. And you brought up the possibility of maybe those guys suffering from the limited infield shifts next year. Of the three, if we're just talking about that variable specifically, I think Kyle Wright would be the most worrisome since he throws right-handed. And you would expect the quote-unquote shift band to help left-handed hitters more. And obviously, there aren't going to be as many of those in the lineup against left-handed pitcher like Fried or Valdez. But right is right-handed.

Plus, he's not as proven as those other two. and none of them are big strikeout pitchers, but I think Wright has had the lowest strikeout rate of the three. I'd have to double check that. It's probably pretty close. It got worse as the year went on for Wright. I know that much. So skepticism, a certain amount of skepticism is warranted for Wright.

He was the major's only 20-game winner, worth noting. And obviously, the Braves provide ample run support. because there seems to be no enthusiasm for drafting right based on early mock draft results there's a good chance I'm going to be investing in him a lot because I don't like I don't think the expectation is he's going to turn back into a pumpkin I think I think a half step back

particularly because of all the games he won is to be expected the shift issue maybe create somatic concern but I'd be happy to take him outside the top 30 starting pitchers. I understand we're talking about him finished. He finished much higher than that this past year, but that's not where he's going and drafts. Yeah, no, that's a fair point.

Why would you, you don't have to draft him there? And you still think he can be a valuable pitcher going outside the top 30, then, yeah, I can see it. Look, he still pitches for a great team in the Atlanta Braves. I did look into the BABIP of all three of these players while you were talking Scott, and none of them had like outlier low Babbips. They were all around like 275 to 285. So I'm going to keep my eyes out for that, you know,

one ground ball pitcher or multiple ground ball pitchers who have a really low babb. And I think that's who might suffer from this. I mean, that is a pretty low babbip, though. But it's kind of in line with their career marks for all three of them, actually. Well, but their whole careers happen during a time when there was a lot of shifting going on, right? True. Yeah. No, that's fair point. So. I don't know. I got to do a little. little bit more research into this and maybe talk to someone smarter than I am to see if

there might actually be anything here with the shift ban and Bavip increase moving forward. But yeah, I'll do some research and I'll let you know what I find. 16 through 18 in starting pitchers this past year, we had Shane Bieber finished 46th overall. Tony Gonslyn finished 49th overall and Tristan McKenzie 52nd overall. Two names here, Scott, who we are not used to being on this list or at least not this high up. Tony Gonselin, who really broke out 2.14 ERA, 0.87 whip. He was always talented, and he's someone I know you touted as a sleeper last year. He just finally was able to stay relatively healthy for 130 innings.

And then, of course, he got shut down with a strained forearm. So, you know, the question is, what do we do now with Tony Gonson? Trista McKenzie, another one where we've seen flashes of the talent. We just haven't seen him do it over a sustained period, over, or over the course of an entire season. And that's exactly what Tristan McKenzie did this past year. Shane Bieber really bounced back, Scott. I was worried about him. I had him on my bus list.

I was concerned about the shoulder the year before. He put all that to rest. The velocity, not where it was in years past. He's not the same pitcher that he was. He doesn't get as many swinging strikes. He doesn't get as many strikeouts. But I still found a way to be really, really productive this past year. So he's doing it differently.

But I trust it. I actually do trust it when it comes to Shane Bieber. Those other two a little bit tougher, Tony Gonslin and Tristan McKenzie. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, Shane Bieber's velocity decrease came at the optimal time for him because even though he was allowing more contact, it wasn't, it didn't cause a spike in the home run rate. And so that allowed him to succeed in spite of it. And because we don't expect the ball or the humidors to change back,

I think that's going to continue. I mean, Shane Bieber still pitches deep into games. He still has a really good control. And so that's going to keep the whip down. I think if you're just looking at, if you're just looking at the profile of what this pitcher's strengths and weaknesses are, Shane Bieber is really close to Alec Manoa. Like I see those two as comparable.

And I rank them back to back because of it. Manoa. I know I keep talking about my rankings, and we're supposed to be doing that next week. It's hard not to relate it back to that. But I see those two is really comparable. Flyball guys with pristine control who consistently work deep into games.

I think both are probably more likely to have a low 3 ZRA than the 288 mark. Shane Bieber finished with, the 220-ish mark that Alec Manoa finished with. But I think they're both similar. And I'll talk about Tristan McKenzie in relation to somebody in the next group. All right. Well, let's move on to that next group. 19 through 21 in starting pitcher this past year.

Nestor Cortez finished 53rd overall. Christian Javier, 54th overall. And Max Scherzer, 55th overall. So again, two names were not necessarily used to. Max Scherzer a little bit lower here because he only threw 145 in a third innings. That was actually the lowest of any full season in his career. Slowly starting to add up. He missed a good amount of time with an oblique injury this past year.

That is Max Scherzer. Nestor Cortez has now made 42 starts since the beginning of 2021. During that time, a 261 ERA 0.98 whip. And I think I know what you're gonna say, Scott. Him and Tristan McKenzie, very similar pitchers. They're fly ball pitchers, they don't give up a lot of hits. And they do a good job of limiting hard contact and home runs. And that's really how they've,

kind of made it here. Same thing for Christian Javier. I guess we could just put all three of these together, right? Actually, is what I was going to say. There you go. Yeah, Christian Javier, another one where he's a flyball pitcher, but he doesn't give up a lot of hard contact, and he limits home runs. He also has this like invisible

fastball, creates great deception with it, a ridiculous slider. He doesn't really need a third pitch. He's proven now that he can get by on those two really, really awesome pitches. So these are new names to this list, Scott, ranked this highly and finishing this highly, but I have a good amount of confidence in each of

them, Christian Javier, Nester Cortez, and the aforementioned Trissa McKenzie. Yeah, Javier and McKenzie were the two I wanted to compare to each other for exactly the reasons you laid out young guys who are coming off their first season of being true fantasy standouts who have ridiculously high fly ball rates. And so in years past, during the juice ball era, I might have been a little scared off by those fly ball rates. I mean, you look at ex-fip, which treats it rather than... So FIPP takes into account home runs against a pitcher,

strikeouts, walks, home runs, ex-fip, strikeouts, walks, and fly-ball rate. So it kind of measures a pitcher's home run, the threat, the threat of home runs off a pitcher versus the home runs actually hit. So that's why I leaned more on an ex-fip during the juice ball era, but I'm kind of shying away from that now because fly balls aren't as often becoming home runs. So Christian Javier, 254 ERA, but 353 X-FIP, you're like, oh, no, look at that X-FIP. Christian Javier is going to come crashing back down the earth. I don't think that's the case. I think he's just kind of a,

his track record alone says he's kind of freakish in terms of avoiding home runs despite all the fly balls he gives up. And yeah, I think in this era, especially, he's going to be a real standout. One way that he stands out from Tristan McKenzie compared to last year is the strikeout rate. He had 11.7 K-per-9 did

to Christian Javier, but McKenzie, well, it's it wasn't anywhere close to 11.7. It was 8.9. He didn't even have a strikeout per inning. So I think Christian Javier is going to be somebody who I'm pretty invested in next year. I think he stands out from a few of these guys we've mentioned in front of him,

Gonsolin, McKenzie, Cortez, and Kyle Wright keep going up the list. I mean, I think he's probably closer to, no, we'll say he's ahead of that group that I just mentioned. Gonsal and McKenzie. Yeah, I'd take Javier over all of them. Yeah, look, on a per running basis, Christian Javier was ridiculous last year.

He just didn't provide as much volume as other pitchers, but now that Verlander signed with the Mets, we know that he's not going back to Houston. No, Christian Javier, this could be his first full year as a starter where they just kind of leave him in that role. You don't have to worry about it. And maybe he can get up to like 170, 180 innings this upcoming season. Max Scherzer just kind of quickly touched on him, Scott.

How concerned are you about these injuries kind of piling up here? 145 in a third innings, again, his lowest of any full season of his career, pushing closer to 40 years old. Your thoughts? So, spoiler alert for next week as well. I rank Scherzer second At least in 5 by 5 leagues I already mentioned

he'd be behind Alcantara also in points leagues but yeah not really none of the injuries he's had in recent years have anything to do with his arm and we haven't seen the skill level diminish at all now is it possible that all these aches and pains

go along with his age and that we're not really going to see we're not really going to see them stop. It's possible. But among all the worries we have for starting pitchers, non-arm injuries still seem relatively low on the list to me. You know?

I mean, who, what pitcher do you not worry about getting injured, you know? Yeah. I think Scherzer's recent battles with injuries, especially given the classification of the injuries is just not something worth worrying about that much. All right, let's wrap up here. 22 through 24 starts with Tyler Anderson, who was 58th overall in Roto.

Spencer Strider was 65th, and Brandon Woodruff, it was 70th this past season, mostly because he did miss some time and he was limited to 153 and a third innings, but he was still really, really good on a per inning basis when he pitched. Again, this is Brandon Woodruff. Career high, 14% swinging strike rate for him.

The other two, we know Tyler Anderson, signed a three-year deal with the Angels. We're hoping that he can learn from, not learn, but continue on with what he learned from the Dodgers this past season, leaning into that change-up, which was a truly elite pitch this year and getting the best outcome we've ever seen

from Tyler Anderson before. Spencer Strider, Scott, I mean, man, you want to talk about? about breakout this year, 200 strikeouts in exactly 130 in the quickest to ever do it. In all of Major League history, actually beat out Randy Johnson by like two-thirds of an inning. Just ridiculous season for Spencer Shrider, 13.8K per 9

that was highest among pitchers with at least 130 innings. He's a lot like Dylan C's. He's got the slider, he's got the fastball, some control problems, but potentially better than Tillen C's. So three very different names here, Tyler Anderson, Spencer Strider, Brandon Woodruff. So, Strider and Woodruff are a lot better than Tyler Anderson,

despite the way they've finished this past year. I mean, Woodruff has had, actually had some trouble staying healthy, though it's not the ways you normally think of for a starting pitcher, I guess it's, I don't know that none of them have been arm injuries, like in the case of Scherzer's of the past couple years, but it hasn't been traditional elbow shoulder stuff that's kept Woodruff sidelines. So is it something to hold against him really? I mean, he has yet to reach 180 innings in a season.

Was that 153 in a third this past year? We're talking about performance. I mean, it doesn't get much more consistent than Woodruff. It's definitely been ace like the last three seasons. And I'd be fine taking him as my ace. But yeah, he's had trouble lasting a full season. I think we've seen that from him. and Strider is really the big ticket item.

I mean, early ADP, he's going ahead of what I consider the number one pitcher, Justin Verlander. So you're not going to be able to slip Strider by anybody. I think it's fair to say. And that's disappointing because I love Spencer Strider. And I'd like to be able to draft a lot of him. I just think he's going to be drafted for his very best case scenario. and a guy who's career high innings

is the 131 and 2 thirds he threw this past year, I just, I can't treat him like a top 10 pitcher. I can't. I don't care how good I think he is. He just, you have to be, like, availability is the most important quality

a pitcher can have. Resilience. That was the word I was looking for before with Verlander. You need to be resilient, and you need to prove resilient. and you have to prove resilience at pitcher for me. I can't just presume it for you,

especially a guy like Strider who throws as hard as he does and who is injured toward the end of last season. So that's why he's going to be hard to invest in, as good as I think he is. By the way, he's changing his number to 99 next season. Excuse me, that is an Aaron Judge-only thing. No. Yeah.

Spencer Strader's doing it. Well, screw you, Spencer. Strider. You might have to order a little jersey. I'm kind of like 99. You know, that's, it's, I'm kind of over it. You know, the, the, the, um, the uniform number meant to get attention, you know, like, look at me.

I'm wearing 99. How many guys have done that before? Not many. Like, can't you just pick a more traditional number? he seems like an attentiony type guy too I mean he's got the mustache going on I can forgive Spencer Strider for most things but I'm just like saying as a trend

yeah this this this this showy uniform number trend I think it's I think it's uh I think it's worn out it's welcome overall you know yeah I mean I could see that I didn't really think that way I don't know I guess because I'm

so tied to like Aaron Judge wearing 99. It just kind of makes sense. Like he's such a big dude and like, I don't know, just seeing 99 on his back. He doesn't seem like a look at me kind of guy either. No, not really. So, yeah. Like I think of Turquendell.

He wore 99. You don't even know who Turkwindel is. Can't tell you much about that guy. Mani Ramirez wore 99 when he was with the Dodgers, right? Right. Yeah. Little Mani Wood action. Yeah.

Kind of attention seeking. Danny Ramirez for sure. I would definitely put him in that category. All right. Top 24 from this past season, we just kind of ran through it. Of course, as we get closer to the start of draft season,

when we do our full position previews and our starting pitcher previews, we're going to go more in depth on all of these players. But just a nice little recap for now. And of course, next week, we will have an early look at Scott's rankings. And maybe I'll try to get a guest on here, Scott. and we can kind of have you guys debate pitcher ranks a little bit because frankly,

I don't have any pitcher rankings yet. So I've got to get on that. I've got about a month or a month and a half to get that done. It's messy. The downside to that high-end tier of starting pitchers at being so plentiful is that I think there's a lot of room for debate, a lot of room for disagreement. I mean, the fact that the pitcher being drafted 11th overall right now, for however long that last, is my number one.

Like, it makes me want to slap myself and say, come on, man. You can't be that far off the consensus. And yet, I think for Lander's the safest bet for next year, sorry. Hey, you don't have to apologize to me. But we're going to wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank, thank all for listening and watching fantasy baseball. Today will be back again on Wednesday night. Thursday morning.

Bye-bye.