Fantasy Baseball Today - 2023 First Base Recap! Top Performers & Early 2024 Rankings (10/24 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 24, 2023

First base looks like a juggernaut again (2:30)! ... Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman were both top three overall players (4:45). ... How do we project Cody Bellinger in 2024 (12:50)? Will Pete Alonso bounce back? ... What will Christian Walker cost in 2024 (18:30)? ... Yandy Diaz turned in a career year while Paul Goldschmidt took a step back (24:25). ... Spencer Steer and Justin Turner were both productive (31:55). ... Bryce Harper is BACK (41:33)! ... Where does Vlad Jr. rank heading into 2024 (45:32)? ... Who else ranks in the top-20 first basemen next year (54:22)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. How should we project Cody Bellinger in 2024? I have no idea, so hopefully Scott does.

Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, October 24th. I am Frank Stamfield, joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we're moving on. Up to first base. We'll take a look at the top 10 first baseman from this past season and break down way too early 2024 rankings. Scott, for a few years now, it felt like there was maybe a bit of a lull at first base, not as many elite options up top as we were used to, I don't know, maybe a decade ago.

But I think that might be changing. I think we might be back to a bit of a juggernaut here at first base. Yeah, the position had a resurgence of sorts in 2023, and really it was in the second half of 2023. Because remember around the All-Star break, we did a redraft for the rest of the season. And we were saying, wow, first base is scarce. You need to move up all the early round first baseman for the rest of season redraft. But then after that, we had Tristan Kossis and Spencer Torkelson begin to hit their stride. We had Bryce Harper, gain eligibility.

at the position. We had Cody Bellinger gain eligibility at the position and suddenly first base is looking very strong. You know, it's hard to say first base is the strongest position.

It's hard to say what position is the strongest, honestly, because I've only ranked infielders so far. I've been working on outfielders recently, but not far enough

into it yet to say how it stacks up. But across the infield position, and even catcher, which we covered in the last podcast, it seems like there's more than enough to go around. The hard part is going to be figuring out where you can get an advantage at these positions

because it's not like you're going to get left out in the cold in any of them except in maybe deeper leagues. And I think that makes sense, right? Based on a lot of what we said throughout this past season was that outfield was not great, right? Outfield was not a very deep position, especially in leagues where you had to start five of them. So that'll be interesting to see.

I guess we can find out from you soon how it was ranking outfielders, but it feels like that's not a very good position. Maybe infielders are great. You know, starting pitcher is kind of weird. But yeah, maybe, you know, just the infield positions will, I don't know, we'll feel great about those heading into 2024. Let's take a look back at first base

and we'll run through the top 10 from this past season. Starting with the top two, who finished as top three overall players in Roto this season. We know Ronald de Kuna was head and shoulders better than any other player, but then we get into Matt Olson, his teammate, second overall player in Roto this year. Of course, he was the number one first baseman. He was the third overall hitter in Head Dead Points Leagues. Turns 30 years old in March career year across the board, 283 batting average, 54 homers, 127 runs,

139 RBI. It almost, it sounds made up video game-like numbers. The 139 RBI led baseball by far. Pete Alonzo was second with 118. You know, I'm trying to figure out how he did it, Scott. He just, he always hit the ball hard, but he took it to another level. He was just like, in his own stratosphere

in terms of how hard he was hitting the ball. The question is, where does he go from here? Because he did kind of overachieve the expected numbers. What are you expecting from Madelson? It's hard to believe he could do this again, like exactly this. No Brave had ever hit 54 home runs before. No Brave had ever driven in 139 runs before. So there was a never-before seen quality to this Matt Olson season.

And then you have the 127 RBI. The fact he ended up hitting 283, I think that's going to be the most surprising number of all. Because for most of the season, Matt Olson's batting average hovered around 250. It was 321. in the second half. That's what got him up in the 280s. And we saw the strikeout rate drastically improve in the second half. And like what year was it?

His last year in Oakland, so that would have been 2021, I guess. Sounds right. He had a much lower strikeout rate that we'd seen for Molson before. And we thought, okay, if he's able to keep that up, then we're talking first round caliber hitter. But the strikeout rate regressed in his first season in Atlanta. And for the first half of 2023, it was also more typical of Matt Olson's whole career.

But in the second half, his strikeout rate dropped to 18.4% to go along with that 321 batting average. That's close to that 16.8% mark he had in 2021. So I guess my point is, if we're just talking about from a skills standpoint, Matt Olson didn't do anything that we hadn't seen from him before. But I just think, like, law of averages, the fact that the run-in-RBI accumulation was such an outlier and, you know, leading the majors and home runs, there just has to be some give in those areas.

Braves' lineup should still be great next year. Matt Olson, you know, maybe he can maintain a sub-20% strikeout rate again. but like those numbers just have to come down because there's no way they can be quite that good again. That doesn't mean he won't be a stud, but will he be the number two overall player in fantasy again? I think the odds are pretty low. Yeah, I think most people would bet against that.

And the early ADP has him as like a, you know, first round turn kind of player, you know, anywhere from like 11 through 14, something like that. Yeah, that's where I seem to. Yeah, which I think is fair for Matt Olson. and it's like, yes, the counting stat should come back, but think about the rest of that lineup. They're all still really young and still really awesome.

So, again, it should come back, but I don't know. If you're betting on anybody to put up 250 runs plus RBI, Madelson is probably the best bet heading into 2024. Freddie Freeman. Which would still be a decline of 16 combined runs in RBI to get him down to 250. Yeah. That just shows you how ridiculous.

It was. It really was. Number two, first baseman from this past season was Freddie Freeman, the third overall player in Roto. He was the second overall hitter in head-to-head points leagues. Now 34 years old, but I don't think it really matters. He just arguably had the best fantasy season of his career, batting 3.31. That was third best in all of baseball. 29 home runs.

131 runs scored second in all of baseball. 102 RBI. 23 steals, which was a. career high for Freddie Freeman, one of the most durable players in the game. He has missed. Think about this. 11 games over his past six seasons. 11 games in six seasons. That's all Freddie Freeman has missed. He is, if you just want the safest player possible in the first half of the first round, it's Freddie Freeman. And I can't really find a debate against it, Scott. Yeah. I mean, he's the safest bet for,

batting average in baseball still. And as much as we gushed over Matt Olson's combined run-in-R-BI production, Freddie Freeman's kind of got the same thing going on, batting second in the Dodgers lineup. He scored 131 runs, actually, four more than Olson. 102 RBI, which doesn't come close to 139, I guess, but it's still 102 RBI for a guy who scored 131 runs.

the fact that the stolen base thing for him has now been a two-season development. It's not just an isolated incident for Freddie Freeman. I think we can count on it being a part of his profile, at least for the near future. And yeah, he just feels incredibly safe. It's hard to say that what would be too early to draft Freddie Freeman. And I don't think we can say at this point that any pick would be too early. I guess maybe drafting him over Acuna would be ridiculous. But if somebody wanted to take Freddie Freeman second overall,

I don't rank them that high. I think there are some more prolific base dealers that belong ahead of him in five-by-five scoring. But in point scoring, do I have him second in point scoring? I can't remember if I have him or Mookie Bet second. But the point is it's justifiable from Freeman. because you know exactly what he's, you know he's maybe the least likely first rounder to fall short of first round production.

And it's, you know, what we're saying, he was the third best hitter in Roto this past year. I think he was second best. Or maybe was he third best also. I think he was third best in back-to-back years. I think Goldschmidt was second best last year behind Aaron Judge. Yeah, just so incredibly safe. I agree with you.

I think in Roto leagues, I probably would want to take. one of Acuna, Julio, Rodriguez, and Bobby Witt up at the top three. I've kind of made my case against Corbyn Carroll. We'll see where I fall, you know, once the calendar turns next year. But I think as early as fourth overall, you can make that case for Freddie Freeman heading into 2024. And yeah, you could probably take him second overall in a head-to-head points league. Let's move on. By the way, I just thought of something funny. So I said no brave in history had hit more than the 54 home runs, Matt Olson hit this past year. It's the Braves

record, which, you know, franchise record, what does that mean really? Well, the Braves are an organization that have been around, you know, since like the 1800s, right? And they're the organization that had both Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth play for them.

And yet Matt Olson is the franchise record holder. Single season home runs. Granted, Babe Ruth, it was the very last year of his career and he was basically horrible then, but technically true that he played in the Braves organization. Yeah, it's pretty crazy stuff. You know, if you look at Hank Aaron, just like his yearly home run total, it's just, it's more that he played for as long as he did. It's not like

he ever put up that crazy, you know, 50, 60 home run season. It's just like 40 after 40 after 40 for Hank Aaron. So yeah, good point by you and awesome season for Matt Olson. Number three first baseman was Cody Bellinger, who also has outfield eligibility, huge bounce back season entering this year. We didn't really know what to do with Cody Bellinger. Was there anything left in the tank? His ADP was 187.8. So I think truly one of the Premier League winners

in fantasy baseball this past season finished as the 12th overall player in just 130 games. 3.8 fantasy points per game. That was third best among first baseman this season as well. Turns 29 years old next July. So he's pretty much in the prime of his career. He hit 307 with 2.7 with 2. 26 homers, 95 runs, 97 RBI, 20 steals, an 881 OPS,

five category contributor, and that's the end of my analysis, Scott. I don't know what to say about Cody Bellinger. The one thing that stands out is, okay, he lowered the strikeout rate tremendously. He got it back to a similar mark to his MVP season in 2019. Everything else, I can't figure it out. The quality of contact, by every metric that we look at, was awful. what do we say about Cody Bellinger? Yeah, you're asking if I can predict what's going to happen for Cody Bellinger next year.

And he's a free agent on top of all that. Yeah, so just an added variable there. I don't think anybody can predict what comes next for Cody Bellinger. Anyone who says they can is lying. We're all just kind of guessing. I'm fairly optimistic because he has the track record he does. well, I guess that could be a positive or a negative, but I guess because we've seen MVP caliber production from him in the past,

we know he has that, and we know he has the makings of that. And because there was really no slippage in production over the course of the season, in fact, for as so-so as the stat-cast metrics appear for Cody Bellinger, they did get better over the course of the year. Like they began to catch up to the actual production as opposed to the production dropping down to the stat cast numbers. But he was one of the biggest overachievers, statistically. There's no way around that.

And how much did playing at Wrigley Field with, you know, the way its outfield fences are and, of course, the way the wind can aid home runs so often, maybe he just really felt comfortable there. And that helped him bounce back to this, level of production. It's hard to say. Certainly, if he ends up signing somewhere that is considered not so favorable of a

place to hit, we'll have to look on him with even more skepticism. But you mentioned the strikeout rate being down. That helps his chances of contributing a batting average like he did this year. He was a 20 steel guy. So even if he falls a little short in terms of power production, he's capable of contributing in enough ways that I don't think it's going to be a total loss but then again you can't look past what happened to him between 2020 and 2021 where he was basically useless in fantasy really hard to figure out what went right for him this year just as it was hard to

figure out what went wrong for him the previous three years the early indications are that these are the teams that will have interest in Cody Bellinger the Cubs the Giants the Padres and the Yankees, obviously the Giants with that, you know, big right field. I don't think we would love that. But the Codres either. The Coyankees would be fantastic. The Cankees. And I don't think there would be much pressure on him either because obviously there's

another MVP candidate and Aaron Judge in that lineup. And, you know, they've got a few other guys like Glaver Torres is fine. So I don't think there would be this huge pressure on him if he wound up with the Yankees. The Padres ballpark is not great, but that's another situation where there's so many other great hitters there. I think it could help, you know, propel him. So I don't know.

The only one that really kind of stands out to me as a negative is San Francisco. So we'll see here with Cody Bellinger in the offseason. The number four first baseman was Pete Alonzo. He finished 26 overall in Roto. He was the third best first baseman in head-to-head points leagues. He turns 29 years old in December. And he wound up hitting 217 with 46 home runs,

118 RBI, an 821 OPS. And the real thing that stands out here is His babbip plummeted 2.05 Babbip this past season. He did hit more fly balls than ever before. He had the lowest line drive rate of his career. So some of those things correlate to a low babbip, but not that low. 205 is like incredibly low. He also missed some time with getting hit by a pitch on his wrist.

And when he came back, he really wasn't great for a while after that. My guess is the batting average will bounce back here for P. Ptollonzo, and we get a pretty Pete Alonzo-esque season next year as well. Yeah, I think so too. And the batting average is the only thing you could knock for him. He still hit 46 home runs. I think it's still a pretty close call between him and Matt Olson. They've kind of traded off which of the two is the preeminent slugger at first base over the past four years.

Pete Alonzo doesn't have the supporting cast Matt Olson does. And so I'm definitely going to draft Olson ahead of Alonzo. But would it surprise me if Alonzo finished the year with the better batting average and or home run total? want to surprise me at all. So I don't think they should be drafted too many, too far apart from each other. All right. The number five first baseman was Christian Walker, who finished 29th overall in Roto, the fourth best first baseman in head-to-head points leagues.

He will turn 33 years old in March. So before opening day next year, he hit 258 with 33 homers, 86 RBI, 103 RBI. I said RBI twice. That would have been 86 run scored. Excuse me. 11 steals and an 830 OPS, pretty much identical seasons between 2022 and 2023. He increased the batting average.

You know, he stole a few more bases here. I have no reason to actually believe Christian Walker is going to fall off, Scott. But at 33 years old, it just kind of feels like one of those situations where you want to get out one year early before that kind of decline starts to happen. I don't know. Again, there's no reason for me to believe that's going to happen. but he's just kind of getting up there a little bit in age. Well, Christian Walker was the winner of the Oops I Did It Again award for 2023, which would make him the inaugural winner.

So, I mean, from that perspective, well, you're just following into the same trap that so many did this year, Frank, by doubting Christian Walker. He's proven it twice over, right? But I kind of agree with you. he's you know entering his mid 30s and although the production was the same the average exit velocity dropped two miles per hour from one year to the next now max exit velocity actually went up some which i think is more important when you're gauging a player's power potential uh strikeout rate

held steady the the drop in exit velocity was a little weird but i don't know what to say about it other than that i don't it it doesn't look like a clear uh a clear a clear dependent depiction of decline for Christian Walker when, you know, sizing up everything else. So I don't want to make too much of that. As for whether it's time to get out, as you say, get out at the risk of, you know, wait, at the risk of buying any year too late. It kind of depends where he's going, right? Yeah.

Like, I don't think. I don't think he's going to be drafted as high as fifth at first base. I know he's not going to be drafted as high as fifth at first base because there are a couple of obvious players who will go ahead of him who we haven't talked about yet. So he might not be drafted that much earlier than next year just given the surplus of alternatives at the position, in which case, I don't know that you need to be so careful.

I'm not saying you should hold out at first base because you know you could fall back on Christian Walker later. but if he's going around 8 or 9, I'm not going to be afraid to take him, that's for sure. Yeah, there's only been two drafts done over at the NFBC, but the early indication is around the 80s, 80 to 90 range for Christian Walker, which it actually sounds pretty good to me.

So again, I agree with you. I think it comes down to the market, right? Like, if he was a top 60 pick, I'd say, oh, that's probably too early for Christian Walker. But if he's going 25 picks after that and you're just trying to play the value game and okay, you want to take a second basement early, outfield or early starting pitch or whatever it might be,

and then, okay, you get to the seventh, eighth, ninth round, and Christian Walker is the best available, then yeah, I think that's probably a perfectly fine place to draft him again next season. Let's take our first break. When we return, we'll get back into the top 10 finishers from 2023. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, a little peek behind the curtain,

but we are recording this a few days in advance, so no news and notes. No playoff updates for now. We'll do that later on in the week when we talk first base prospects. Let's get back into the top 10 finishers from this past season. The number six first baseman was Yandi Diaz, 37th overall in Roto. The sixth best first baseman in Head to Head Points Leagues.

Does not turn 33 until August of next year. So seems all right for now. Career highs across the board, batting 3.30 with 22 home runs, 95 run scored, a 932 OPS. which was seventh best in all of baseball. Now, here's where I'd like to caution you on Yandi Diaz. 12 of his first 22 home runs came in the first two months of the season when his ground ball rate was 45.5% over the final four months

when he hit his final 10 home runs. His ground ball rate was 55%. And that's much more like the Yandy Diaz we've seen in years past. Obviously, Scott, it's going to come down to where he's being drafted, next year. So I don't really want to say I'm just completely out on Yandy Diaz. He's a much better points league and OBP player. But yeah, I think what we saw over the final four months is probably more of what we should expect. Yeah, I agree. He couldn't sustain that improved launch angle for long. And that's always been the issue for Yanty Diaz. And, and, you know, part of it, too,

is you mentioned career highs across the board, basically, specifically, the 22 home runs, the 330 batting average. Those both see. seem to be the upper limits of what Yandi Diaz is capable of reaching. And for him to have done it as a 31-year-old, he turned 32 late in the year, actually. That doesn't, you know, breakout seasons are not what you expect from 32-year-olds. Like, he's in the down swing of his career. Like, durability is in a strong suit. And he plays for the Rays, who, more than any other organizations,

I guess maybe the giants you could argue. They're not inclined to stick with any one hitter every day. Any amount of slippage there for Yandi Diaz could bump them from the lineup sometimes. So there are playing time issues on top of everything else. And I guess issues isn't the right word. They're playing time questions along with everything else. But more than anything, it's just I don't trust him to deliver on those 22 home runs again. So I think there are other first basemen we'd rather have.

we haven't talked about yet. Yeah, to be clear, Diaz crushes the ball. 93.4 average exit velocity, that's 98th percentile. The problem, again, is he always hits a lot of ground balls. And, you know, I said, I expect what he did over the final four months is more of what I should expect. He was still really, really good. He hit 339 with a 903 OPS, but more of like a 15 to 18 home run pace, which I think is probably what I would project for Yandy, D.S.

next season. The number seven first baseman was Paul Gulchman. He finished 45th overall in Roto. He was the ninth best first baseman in head-to-head points leagues. He is entering his age 366 season. He hit 268 with 25 home runs, 89 run score at 80 RBI, 11 steals, and an 810 OPS, which was his lowest since his rookie season. You know, we did see the strikeout rate kind of prop up a little bit here, Scott. But outside of that, I mean, the quality of contact was still really good. In fact, average XEVlocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate were all better than Paul Goldschmidt's 22 when he was the number two overall player in Roto. So I know he's old and obviously there is a risk there. But I think my early lean is that he could actually

bounce back at least a little bit based on what he did this past season. Oh, we could for sure. Yeah, I mean, if we think stat cast readings are a better indicator of pure skill, then he didn't lose much from his MVP-winning 2022 season to 2023, where he was mostly a disappointment for fantasy. So, yeah, he could bounce back. I think as a general rule, it's unwise to count on a 36-year-old. That's what will be at the start of next season. season to bounce back.

It's happened before. Remember, Joey Votto had a great MVP caliber return late in his career in his late 30s. And, you know, Paul Gulchman isn't as far removed from that as Votto. So it could happen. I just wonder if it's, like, if we should take this season as a warning, you know? Because we say, okay, the stat cast indicators are still basically the same from 2022. Well, he overachieved in 2022, according to Stackcast. So we're willing to look the other way then because the production was so good and because he's Paul Goldschmidt.

But maybe just by virtue of that, we shouldn't have been surprised by the decline we saw in 2023. I mean, he hit 268, his expected. batting average was 267 he he slugged 447 his expect to slug was 46 okay so that was a little bit under but the point is just because the data was similar to 2022 doesn't mean that the production deserve to be as good as 22 you know yeah and more likely than not you know age 36 season, are the skills going to improve? Or are they going to get worse? More likely, they're going to get worse.

Maybe there will be some bounce back in the production. I don't have them buried in my rankings or anything. But I don't consider Paul Goldschmidt a top tier first baseman for next year. I would agree with that. But would you agree, Scott, that based on the stat cast readings from this past season, he should have had a better season. Obviously not as good as 2022, but maybe closer to 30 home runs. And the county stats were kind of weird

because obviously the Cardinals, you know, they underachieve this year as a team and, you know, they were kind of out of it by like August. So I don't know, maybe that kind of factored into the team's overall output as well. But I can't, I kind of feel like he should have been closer to like a 30 home run, maybe, you know, 95 run, 100 RBI kind of hitter. But I don't know. Maybe I'm just making the positive case for him.

Like I said, he was about 40 points, 40, yeah, 40 points under his expectant. slug. So give him an extra 40 points of slug. Does that translate to five more homers or whatever? Probably. But it is interesting that the second half splits were so much worse than the first. If you buy the idea that he's on the decline, you know, that kind of backs up that idea. I just, you know, I thought I was going to be more optimistic about Goldschmidt than it turned out I was when I dug into the numbers more. I'm a little, I'm a little worried. that this is just the start of a decline as opposed to being a blip.

And I'm just completely playing devil's advocate because I don't know that I'm going to draft a lot of Paul Goldschmidt next year, but just for the sake of, I guess, his stack cast numbers making the case for him. The number 8th first baseman from this past season was Spencer Steer, who will have first base eligibility again in 2024.

He finished as the 49th overall player in Roto, the eighth best first baseman in head-to-head points leagues. He turns 26 years old in December. So smack right there in the middle of his prime years. He hit 271 with 23 home runs, 86 RBI, 15 steals, and an 820 OPS. Very solid plate discipline across the board. 10% walk rate, 21% strikeout rate. Does not hit the ball hard at all.

But he kind of does the pull side thing. 19 of his 23 home runs. to the pull side this past year. He is much better against lefties and he is against righties. I know you've kind of shared some skepticism in Spencer Steer. Again, it'll come down to like what the market says and what the ADP is. But my early lean is I kind of like the player. I like the plate discipline.

I like the power and speed. And I like the lineup. I think they're all just kind of get better together. So I don't know. What are your thoughts on Spencer Steer? Yeah, I mean, it could go that way. but I do think there are a lot of

a lot of ways things could go wrong for Spencer Steer too and the best thing he has going for him is that he's triple eligible he's got first base, he's got third base, he's got outfield and not many players

of his stature are going to have that. He also plays in the most homer friendly park so that can help to mask his deficiencies his skill deficiencies let's say.

for what it's worth, it didn't so much matter this past year. I think he actually hit more home runs on the road than at home. But in the long run, that's probably not going to be the trend. Probably he will hit more home runs at home than on the road. And as I said, that'll help make up for the low exit velocities. Maybe my biggest concern for Spencer Steer, even more than just the regression, that the data says will happen

is that he plays for a team that is breaking in what looks like a lot of young studs offensively all across the infield. They had Ellie De La Cruz taking over as their short stop. They had Noel V. Marte taking over as their third basement. They had Matt McLean taking over as their second basement. They got Christian and Carnas. Stran taking over as their first baseman.

They are all more talented, just in terms of raw talent, I would say, than Spencer Stier. So he's been bumped out of the infield completely by those four. I haven't even mentioned Jonathan India. Who knows if he's going to be back next year for the Reds, but if he is, presumably they'll need to find a bat's for him somewhere as well. So Spencer Stier did get a lot of time in left field later in the year after all those players were called up. But it's not like, I mean, the Reds have a lot of interesting players in the outfield, too. I don't think they outclass steer on a pure talent level the way those infielders do,

but they're good enough to deserve at bats. So is it possible that Spencer Steer becomes more of a utility player who starts more often than not, but not quite every day? That seems like a possibility to me, particularly if there's any sort of, slippage in the production like the data says there could be. So that's my biggest concern with him and why I don't think, I mean, I don't think anybody is going to draft him number eight at first base because we still haven't gotten to Bryce Harper or, you know, a few others who obviously deserve to go ahead of

Spencer Steer. But I think, I think, I don't know, he might be even lower for me than he is for some other people. Those are all fair points and the fact that they have two outfielders who are, they look like strict platoon players in Will Benson and Jake Frailey. Spencer Steer much better against left-handed pitching this season. 313 batting average 928 OPS and against Ritees he hit 256 with a 780 OPS. With all that being said, I think there's a pretty good chance that they move Jonathan India this offseason and they don't bring back Joey Vado. And if that's the case, then I think there's just a pretty clear opening at D.H for Spencer Stier or, you know, they can move them around in the outfield, whatever it might be.

Yeah, probably they would move steer around and give other players days off at D.H. Yeah. But if that happens, I think we'll feel a little bit better about his playing time. But obviously, we have all season to figure that out for him as well. Justin Turner was the ninth best first baseman, 50th overall in Roto. Getting up there in age quite a bit. turns 39 years old in November, but it didn't matter this year. Turn back the clocks a little bit.

Hit 276 with 23 home runs, 86 runs, 96 RBI, 4 steals, and an 800 OPS. He does have a player option where $13.4 million. And for the sake of what he just did, I really hope he returns to Boston because he took advantage of the green monster in a big way. He put up a career high, 41% pull rate. He also hit 2.93 at Fenway Park. It doesn't hit the ball all that hard, but obviously makes a lot of contact. I just think, Scott, like so many people are going to, I don't know, probably fade Justin Turner.

You'll be able to get him as like a corner infielder again or a utility bad. And because he's older and that's fine. But as long as he's in Boston, I think he's still going to be pretty productive. Well, I'm going to be among those fading, Justin Turner. You mentioned he's getting up there in years. he turns 39 this offseason, and I don't think anybody thought he was going to bounce back with these kinds of numbers.

After the way his last season with the Dodgers went, he looked like he was already sliding pretty hard into old age. I will also point out that while overall, the numbers were very strong from Justin Turner, obviously they made him a top 10 first base, men there were problems toward the end he had pretty bad uh planter fascia issue wasn't that it plantar fasciaitis i know it was labeled as like a heel injury but it wouldn't surprise me if it was a he could hardly play the field by the end of the year um had some real problems with mobility

it was an issue it was the whole thing and uh had a pretty terrible September, which isn't to say, like, that's going to be his problem next year, but when you're 39 years old, like, that stuff is going to happen more frequently. And I doubt, I doubt he ever gets as many as 558 at bats again. I mean, shoot, that was a career high. He got his career high and at bats at age 38. Yeah, that seems like an outlier. He's pretty safe to say that he won't get that many of bats again.

And I don't know. I mean, the player option, the option to return to the Red Sox is Justin Turner's decision. Player option. 13 million.

Does he think he can get more than that on the open market after the year he just had? Maybe. Oh, I mean, goodness. It's a $6.7 million buyout. So,

and it's a player option, really? That's what it said. Why wouldn't he take the near $7 million and then test the open market? Yeah, I mean, if that is the case, If I understand the terms correctly here.

Are you looking at Spot Track? I'm looking at baseball reference. Yeah, it says, 2024 player option contains a $6.7 million buyout. Yeah, that's what it. It says it on Spot Track as well. Right. So, and look, I mean,

he helped the Red Sox break in Tristan Kossus this year, but we think Tristan Kossis is ready to run now, right? Like, he doesn't need, He doesn't need any breaking in anymore. Meanwhile, they introduced Williour O'Brien, they introduced Seidon Raphaela at the end of the year. Their outfield is going to get Jaron Duran back. I think they kind of need to move Masataka Yoshita over to D.H. full time to accommodate all those outfielders. So I don't know that the abats are really there for Justin Turner.

So it wouldn't surprise me if he left the Red Sox at all. I think his best scenario in fantasy is coming back, but I don't think that's at all a given. And he's not in my top 20 for next year at first base, TBAH, even though he was just top 10. He's not in my top 20. Yeah, I mean, all fair points. I mean, the Red Sox have a lot of young kids

that looks like they need to get at bats as well. So we will find out where Justin Turner is playing next year. But if he is back with Boston for whatever reason, I think I would be kind of intrigued at the right price, obviously, like outside the top 200, whatever. I mean, you can draft anybody at that point, right? The number 10 first baseman this past season was Bryce Harper, who made the transition.

Obviously, started the year as the DH coming back from that elbow surgery, and then eventually took over as the first baseman. He finished 54th overall in Roto in just 126 games, just turned 31 years old last week. But obviously we're not worried about age. The guy is still awesome. He hit 293 with 21 home runs, 11 steals, a 900 OPS, and he just flipped a power switch in August.

Over the final two months, he hit 16 home runs with a 1067 OPS and a 21% barrel rate, which was second best in MLB during that span. I still think he's totally fine, and he's going to be worthy of like a second round pic next year. I agree. I mean, the fact he missed the first month of this season because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery came back quicker than any players ever come back from Tommy John surgery.

And so it clearly limited his power production over the first three months he was there. So missed a month, was not himself for the next three months, only became himself for the final two months. And yet he was still a top 10 first basement in fantasy. I mean, that says, a lot. Right there, of course, what we've seen from him this postseason, you wonder how he

doesn't hit 50 home runs every year because it just looks like he can do it whenever he wants to do it. Seems to have that superhuman quality that we've seen for very few players over the year. But in addition to that, he's a viable base dealer. He is an incredibly disciplined hitter, almost always has an on-base percentage over 400, which helps to boost him in points leagues even further. There's an impact on Roto Leaks 2 on runs scored. But, like, there's just, he's just one of those hitters who does everything well. And he's going to get pushed into round two,

but it wouldn't be at all surprising if he performed like a first rounder next year. All right. Let's take our final break. And when we return, an early look at 2024 rankings. here on Fantasy Baseball today. Never too early for 2024 rankings. Let's take a look at first base and the top five for next season, according to Scott White.

Number one is Freddie Freeman, followed by Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonzo, and a name we have not mentioned yet today, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who I'm sure will be a very polarizing player this offseason. He finished as the 62nd overall player in Roto, turns 25 years old in March.

He is in the prime of his career. And I don't want to write off a soon-to-be 25-year-old. But man, 2021 just looks like the clear outlier at this point. His OPS by year, 772, 791, 1002, 18, 788. One of those things is not like the other, Scott. And it turns out that was the year where he played. in multiple minor league ballparks, which were extremely hitter-friendly.

So, again, I don't want to count out the possibility of him bouncing back and being like a top 10 to 15 player. I think that's possible, but it looks like everything is kind of working against him right now. Well, I think the biggest wrinkle to what you just laid out there is the data, right? What Statcast says he should be. He was the winner of the biggest underachiever award for 2023 was Vladimir Guerrero because his batting average was 37 points or sorry 27 points below his expected batting average 264 versus 291.

He slugged 444 compared to 490, 50 points less than his expected slug. and you know if you're looking at ex woba the gap between that amazing 2021 season in 2023 was actually about the same as the gap between 2023 and 22 like 20202 was the lowest and yet his production took another step back in 2023 even though um the data all said he should have been much closer to a first round californ about much closer to that that 2020 performance when he was the best player in fantasy. He has a long career ahead of him and the skills are obvious by all that red on the stat cast page. So to say Vladimir Guerrero is never going to have another year like that 2021 season, I think is, I think it's full hardy.

But I can't honestly sit here and say after the way the last two years have gone that that's who he'll be in 20, I have to lean no. So it's going to be divisive. He's going to be a divisive player for this upcoming season. As you already said, from what I've observed, and I haven't studied the very few mock drafts that are out there as closely as you have, but from just by gaug it, just by taking the pulse of people who are really into fantasy baseball, I think that's going to be the stock opinion for next year. That, yeah, we think Vladimir Guerrero is really talented,

but he's burned us twice in a row and burned us especially badly this past year. So I don't want to be too invested in him. I mean, 3.03 points per game from Vladimir Guerrero. Spencer Stier was 2.99. I mean, it wasn't, he was a lot closer to the Spencer Steers. and Alec Bome was 2.92, who he was much closer to those guys in terms of per game production,

Vladimir Guerrero, this past year, than he was to, you know, the high-end types, like Cody Bellinger or certainly Matt Olson or Freddie Freeman. So, like, he really let us down. And I think people are fearful of making a big investment in him again. So at what point, I mean, I'm ranking him fifth here, obviously. Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, their first rounders, or at least borderline first rounders in Olson's case,

Harper's second round, Pied Lanzo, I'm saying his second round. So when would I actually take Vladimir Guerrero? When would you take Vladimir Guerrero? Round three? Probably somebody's going to take him there. And they may get a huge value. He didn't perform quite like a third rounder this past year,

for what it's worth. So it's possible that could still be a bad use of a third round pick. but how far are you willing to let him drop? I can't imagine it being much further than that. Yeah, it's a great question. And again, we're working off a very small sample size so far of average draft position data from NFBC, but the early indicators, 29.5 for Vlad Jr.,

which puts him right in the middle of the third round. Yeah, that's my leaning. And I don't know exactly who's going to be drafted around him I think Marcus Simeon's going to go in that same range. Probably Bobauchet, his teammate. They both underwhelmed this past year. He'll probably go about in that same range. Well, shoot, I haven't ranked ahead of Cody Bellinger,

but I think it's an honest question. Would you rather have Vladimir Guerrero or Cody Bellinger next year? He'll probably go in that same range. It's a tough one. Yeah, it's so fun to look at this early ADP. I mean, look, things are going to change drastically. I understand that. but just to give you an example,

Cody Bellinger is going almost 30 picks later on average than Vlad Jr. And you know who's going at the same exact spot? Royce Lewis, the same spot as Vlad Jr., which, man, people love them some Royce Lewis. He's a fun player, but oh, man, it's... We'll talk about that at third base. Yes.

That's crazy. I was convinced to move him up some from my initial inclination, Royce Lewis. But I still don't have him as high. some of people seem to. Third round for him seems very, very optimistic. Yes. By the way, there's really no argument.

Olson finished ahead of Freddie Freeman this year, but there's really no argument for drafting Olson ahead of Freeman next year, right? It'd be hard to make it. Yeah, I wouldn't. Yeah, I wouldn't make that argument. It's like Freddie Freeman is just so safe. And for me, and I think there's a lot of people who think this way when they draft, is the early rounds, they really just don't want to,

lose their draft. And I'm not saying Matt Olson is going to do that. But there is no one safer than Freddie Freeman. So if you just want that safety, yeah, I think he's absolutely like a top five to seven pick regardless of format this year. Six through 10 in your early first base ranks. You have Cody Bellinger followed by Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Walker. Here's a fun one.

Tristan Kossis, ninth. And then Yandy Diaz at number 10. Tristan Kossis, by the way, turns 24 years old in January. he hit 263 with 24 home runs in 856 OPS, and that is despite getting off to a pretty slow start. If you look at what he did over the final four months of the season, Tristan Kossis hit 299 with 18 home runs and a 953 OPS. He absolutely crushes the ball.

So some people might hear this guy say, whoa, top 10, Tristan Kossis, but I think he's absolutely deserving of it. Yeah, it's kind of an optimistic ranking. you gave the numbers over the final four months. If you just want to do second half numbers for Tristan Kosses, he slashed 317, 417, 617. He was basically who he dreamed of any Pasquantino would be this year. He did lose at-bats to left-handed pitchers,

but the exposure to them increased as the year went on. And I think it's a slam dunk. He'll be an everyday player for the Red Sox next year. so I'm ranking him ninth and I think he's going to be the next great player at the position I mean come next year come this time next year we might be talking about

Tristan Kossis is a round two pick I think that's within his skill set just looking at the plate discipline and the quality of contact you know who he looks a lot like Matt Olson that's exactly who he looks like right okay I've made Freddie Freeman

comparisons to him in the past I think the strikeout rate is a little bit too high, right? The 25% strikeout rate, but, you know, that was kind of like a prime Matt Olson. I think Kossis could hit for a little bit better, you know, 250, 260, 260, you know, 250, 260, seasons and stuff. But yeah, I think like an early season, early career Matt Olson, you know, 250, 260, 40 plus home runs. I think that's doable for Tristan Casas. 11 through 15 in the rankings, Spencer Torkelson, followed by Spencer Steer. All right, back to back Spencers. Vinnie Pasquantino. Wait, do I have it? Oh, man, I don't have it loaded up,

but I'll have to get it. Vinnie P. I don't remember what it was. Vinnie Pee, baby. Oh, yeah. Number 14 is Josh Naler. Number 15 is Christian Ancarnazio and Tran. So lots of names here that we have not talked about, Scott, lots of pretty young names as well. Guys should be really interested in Vinny Pasquantino. He's coming back from the torn labrum in his right shoulder. Josh Nailer broke out in a big way. Christian Encarnaccio and Strand finished incredibly strong. Spencer Torkelson got to 30 home runs. I mean, this is a really, really fun group.

And this begins the stretch of first baseman that I'm not, I'm not very confident in what order to put them in. Spencer Torkelson, he has some obvious drawbacks. He took a big step forward in the second half, sort of like Tristan Kossis did. but he is severely limited by his home park and that's not changing anytime soon home for for Spencer like if okay let me put it this way

Spencer Torkelson played every game on the road he would probably rank ahead of Christian Walker I think his upside is limited to being basically Christian Walker with his home park he hit 11 home runs at home versus 20 on the road, just to sum it up in one stat. So I think that limits his, I think that limits

Spencer Torkelson's upside to being Christian Walker when if he played most anywhere else, maybe he'd have the upside of like a Pete Alonzo. I think that home park's going to rob him of, maybe as many as 10 home runs a year. But he showed he is powerful enough to still be an impact fantasy performer there in the second half he had 19 home runs.

So, you know, that's just in two and a half months time. He really did seem to take a step forward and show the upside that made him the first overall pick in 2020. But there are only such heights he can achieve playing half his games at Comerica Park. Who else do we want to talk about here? Vinny Pass Guantino, obviously, he's coming back from the shoulder. You know, sometimes I worry, not every shoulder injury is created the same,

but I worry sometimes coming back from the shoulder injury that it could sap him of some of the power and he already has a pretty bad home ballpark in Kansas City as well so yeah I don't know a little bit skeptical on I guess Vinnie P yeah I wasn't sure how exactly to account for all that either because you know torn labrum we've in the shoulder we've seen we've seen players come back from that with no issue at all but that is that is a difficult joint to rehabilitate because it has such a wide range of motion that surgeries on it

are never straightforward as on the elbow, for instance. And, you know, it seemed like it may be, it may be caused Fernando Tatis some power coming back from that. But I keep coming back to what Vinnie Pasquantino was doing early in the year. Through May 10th, he was slashing 298, 383, 539, had more walks than strike. and was basically everything we hoped he'd be. The numbers didn't end up there, and we don't know exactly when the shoulder problem started for him,

but we know it wasn't classified as a torn labrum at first. It was defined as something more vague, and he was kind of in and out of the lineup for a while, and then he got shut down with this. So I think that brought his numbers down, and that what we saw through May 10th was really the true Pasquantino, And so I'm hoping he'll bounce back to that. Clearly, I'm not totally sure he will,

which is why I rank him as low as 13th. But I'm ranking him ahead of Josh Naylor. I mean, it's a close call probably between him and Josh Naylor. I'm ranking head of Josh Naylor because I think the upside is higher. But if somebody wanted to go with Naylor over past Guantino, I think that would be fine. Yeah, and the two names we haven't really talked much about in this group are Josh Naylor and Encarnasseh. I really like Josh Naylor, man. He makes a ton of contact.

He raised his launch angle this year. His max exit velocity is really impressive. He hit very well against left-handed pitching. And then Encarnazio and Strand, I mean, this is someone we were clamoring for all season. And when he got called up, a little bit of a slow start. His final 24 games, he hit 333 with nine homers, a 1055 OPS. I think the plate discipline needs some work, Scott. I mean, 29% strikeout rate.

I don't love that for Encanacio and Tran. but I'm very interested in both of those names. Yeah, and so I do think there is quite a difference between the points league rankings and the 5x5 rankings. We're talking about 5 by 5 rankings now, Roto rankings. Now where I have in Carnaccio and Strand 15th because of the impact he could make in the home run category, especially given what he's shown in September, but he's 18th. He's behind guys like Nate Lowe and Alec Bohm and Reese Hoskins. and points leagues because of that poor plate discipline.

I think it's going to hold him back in that format. Vinnie Pasquantino's plate discipline is so good that I actually have him ahead of Spencer Torkelson in points leagues. But I think that's debatable. Yeah, Naylor, I don't know what kind of... So I only have one spot behind Pasquantino here. I'm one spot ahead of Christian and Carnacian Strand.

I understand the justification for ranking him, higher, the data likes him, the production, you know, in terms of per game production for Josh Naylor this year, it was, if we just do the points league thing, 3.22, which was about the same as Christian Walker. It was better than Spencer Steer, better than Spencer Torkelson, better than a lot of the first baseman I rank Josh Naylor behind. And I don't know. I just have, he was stuck in a platoon for so long sitting against left-handers. That's a lot. That's a lot. I not happening anymore. Okay, maybe he's cleared that hurdle.

I think it just took him so long to become this that I'm just kind of, I just kind of have this instinct that tells me, okay, you can't really be sure he is this because we've seen so many versions of Josh Neda that were less than this, you know? So I'm just a little bit hesitant to buy into it completely. But I understand the enthusiasm for him. And not a perfect player either. He's kind of been injury prone. He's yet to play more than 122 games in a season.

So that's a potential drawback to Josh Naylor as well. The final five here, rounding out the top 20 first baseman for next year. Reese Hoskins at 16, followed by Ryan Mountcastle, Nate Lowe, Alec, Aleg Bohm, and Esoc Paredes. I'm just going to come out and say it's got not near, as exciting as the previous group here. And I guess potentially a tear break after that top 15. Reese Hoskins missed the season with a torn ACL.

He turns 31 years old in March. He's a free agent this offseason. We don't really know where he's going to play. But he's been pretty consistent. I think we pretty much know who Reese Hoskins is. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. Obviously, coming back from a pretty serious injury.

And we don't know if he's going to be back with the Phillies, if he's going to go somewhere else. There is this like catastrophic outcome for Hoskins, I think, where, okay, he's a really bad defender at first base and he bats right-handed at a position where most teams want a left-handed batter because, you know, left-hand batter are usually a left-handed thrower. And their left-handed throwers can't play many places. First base is one of the few places they could play.

So it's always, it's always a tough hurdle for right-handed sluggers who can only play first base. That's always a tough hurdle to clear to get them into majors. And so the fact Hoskins is a liability defensively, like he needs to be a stud hitter to justify him in an everyday role. I mean, you look at his war by year. Not very

good for even though he's obviously, we think of him as a productive fantasy player. So now he's on the open market coming back from a serious injury. Is there a chance he signed somewhere without the assurance of every day at bats? Seems

possible. I think it's more likely something that would happen in season. He signed somewhere for, I don't know, let's say one year, $12 million for like a prove it deal. And he starts off as a starter, but he's so bad, he just kind of falls into a platoon role.

It's something like that that would happen. I do agree there's a teardrop here. I think it's actually just before Christian in Carnacian Strand. So Josh Nailor at number 14 is like the last first baseman that I would be more or less happy to have as my number one first baseman. Not that I wouldn't be fine with Incarnaissance Strand or Hoskins or

Miles Castle as a corner infielder. I think they're all fine for that. But it does feel like you're putting yourself at a disadvantage if you make them your top first baseman. Of course, Boehm is more likely to be drafted as a third baseman. And Isok Perretti's maybe as well. I think the two, so we more or less know what to expect from Hoskins.

We don't know what team will be, and if that might affect him. But we more or less know what to expect statistically. I think same thing for Malcastle, who continues to be held back by that deep left field fence in Camden Yards. The data makes it seem like he should be a stud power hitter, but he's kind of a middling power hitter because of that fence, and I don't think that's changing.

We know what to expect from Bohm, I think, mostly, and we'll talk about him more at third base, I'm sure. It's really Nate Lowe and, Issock Peretti's that I think might be the most divisive. Nate Lo was pretty bad this year. It was pretty bad. Only hit 17 homers, 262 batting average. And that was just a year after, remember, he broke through with a 302 batting average in 27 home run.

So a big drop from one year to the next. His numbers against left-handers especially just plummeted. he managed to remain a pretty good fantasy asset because he was in that Rangers lineup and so 89 runs 82 RBI that helped a lot but he kind of has I think

like volume is such a big part of his value right now and because he was so bad against left-handers on a team with clear playoff aspirations at a position where you can find plenty of alternatives I wonder if he's going to slide into a platoon role next year and that'll make him not worth not worth drafting

even 18th where I have in their first base and then Isok Perettis just he was the he won the weirdo biggest weirdo award because of just

somehow hitting 31 homers even though he makes some of the weakest contact of any player who gets consistent at bats and he was a pretty good power hitter in 2022 as well so he may have just mastered that trick of pulling the ball in the air to maximize your power output. But I mean, if it doesn't, if that trick doesn't come through for him one year,

like, it's, it's going to be bad. You don't want to be caught holding the bag because he's probably going to lose a bat's very quickly on the raise and just be totally worthless for you. So that's why I haven't ranked as low as 20th. Isok Perretta is, even though he deserves much better than that based on 2023 production. Yeah, I think that makes sense for both of those names. Nate Lowe and Esauk Parade is. I think that there's enough interesting names

like just ahead of this group where I'm probably not going to dip into that and obviously I have to do a little bit more research. Maybe there's even some names after this group that I find more interesting as well. But I just can't- Justin Turner. You want Justin Turner over? Depends on the team, Scott. Let's see where he says.

He's next. He's next. Yeah. Actually, technically Salvador Perez is next, but you're obviously drafting him to catch. Yes, yes, 100%. All right, we're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.

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