Fantasy Baseball Today - 2023 Outfield Recap & Luis Severino to the Mets! (11/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 30, 2023

We're recapping the outfield, starting with one of the best Fantasy seasons ever from Ronald Acuña (3:45). Should you worry about Corbin Carroll's shoulder? ... Julio Rodriguez really turned up after a slow start (12:29). ... Juan Soto could be better outside of San Diego (18:26). ... Luis Severino has signed a one-year deal with the Mets (27:05). ... Josh Lowe might be undervalued (35:55). ... Will Fernando Tatis be better in 2024 (43:20)? ... Kyle Schwarber crushes homers but his batting average is awful (49:27). ... Will TJ Friedl take a step back (54:00)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, November 30th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we're diving back into our position recaps.

and given that outfield is so massive, we're going to spend all day just recapping the position, probably the top 24-ish, and then we'll spend an entire podcast next week previewing Scott's early 2024 rankings, and we'll get to as many names then that we don't get to today. Plus, we had a semi-interesting signing with Luis Severino to the New York Mets, the Cross Town rival New York Mets.

We'll get to that a little bit later on. Scott spent a lot of time, Recapping these players, diving deep, looking at some ADP, some early outfield ADP. And I really don't want to overstate this, but, and we've talked about it a lot already, it's just bad, man. It's just, in a five outfieler league, it just gets so bad.

Like, I'm doing one of my first NFBC slow drafts right now, and it's a 15-team, five outfielder league. And again, I just waited too long. It's not great. Yeah, we did talk about that. on the last episode when we were recapping the mock draft how one of my rules, especially in a five outfielder league this year, is going to be, when in doubt, go with the outfielder early on.

Like if you're weighing an infielder or an outfielder and you're kind of split on it, go with the outfielder because that's the position that is clearly the weakest going in. And I mean, another way to put it, I, you know, we've done, we've done all the infield position recaps already. first base, I see more than 12 players that I'm comfortable having as my starter. Second base, more than 12 players. Third base, shortstop,

more than 12 players that I'm comfortable having as my starter. In the outfield, it might be like 25. It's certainly not 36. And forget 60, if you're talking a five outfielder league. It's, yeah, there's really no comparison between each of the end field spots and then the outfield.

So that's not to say there is an upside throughout the out. You get that many players at a position. The more players you have at a position, the more names that are there, the more opportunities there are for breakouts and surprises. And I'm sure there will be some of those. And maybe you go into the season with a weak outfield. And it turns out to be not so weak. I think that's plausible.

But you obviously don't want to put yourself in a bad, position out of the gate if you could avoid it. Yeah, there definitely is some upside too. And we'll do an outfield prospect podcast next week with the Welsh. And obviously, we'll talk about Wyatt Langford and Jackson, Trio, two of the top five prospects in baseball. So there's a little bit upside later on. But just even in the mid tier, I just, again, I was taking notes today and I just kept finding something wrong with a bunch of different players. So I don't know. Let's get into it. And we'll start there. The outfield recap, again, we'll try and get through the top 24 today. and I'm going to present these to you, Scott, in trio,

so you can talk about all three players if you want. You could focus on one if you think he's more interesting than the other. Obviously, the names up top, you know, they're all really good, but we'll break him down. The top three, the number one outfielder, the number one player in fantasy this year, no surprise. Ronald Acuna, who just had a historic season, 41 homers, 73 steals.

He earned 71.4 worth of auction value in a 12-team rodeo league. The next closest was Matt Olson at $46.6.6. And I think last year when we talked about Aaron Judge having his historic season, I think he was somewhere around like the upper 50s or maybe he was a $60 player. $71 worth of auction value, just a ridiculous season for Ronald de Cunia. He scored 817 fantasy points on CBS. The next closest was Freddie Freeman at 666.5. We know it was utter dominance.

The number two player was Mookie Betts. finished fourth overall in Roto. 39 home runs was a career high. Also hit 307. Will he manage to maintain that massive batting average? I guess that remains to be seen. And the number three player was Corby Carroll, unanimous

National League rookie of the year. 25 homers, 54 steals. He was incredible. Scott, three awesome players, which should go in the top, I don't know, six or seven picks in, I would say all fantasy drafts this year. Yeah. I mean, for me, all three,

Acuna Betts and Carol are actually top five players, with Betts being number five for me. So no reason to veer too much from what we saw in 2023. I think it's pretty legit from all of these guys. It's really saying something in Acuna's case, because just to marvel a little more about how impressive of a season it was, in my opinion, the best Roto season of all time. a guy delivering what almost, would you say almost $75 worth of value?

71.4. 70. Okay. Rounded. Rounded up. But yeah. So some facts here. It was the third 30 homer 50 steel season ever.

And of course it was way more than that. It was a 40 homer 70 steel season. So nobody's come close to that. But those numbers kind of overshadowed. everything else Ronald de Cunia did, his 149 runs scored were the second most for any player since

1949. Oh gosh. And all of that, the 41 homers, the 73 steals, the 149 runs came with him sustaining a batting average, a 337 batting average that would have led the majors three of the past five years.

So in every way, that a player can be I mean, it was beyond studly what Ronald de Cunia did. And I don't know. Maybe he won't be able to do that again. Law of Averages says he won't.

But he was so far ahead. And in ways that are believable, I mean, obviously the 73 steals, it speaks to the rule changes that took effect, encouraging more base stealing, and nobody seemed to take advantage of it more than Acuna. He seemed to relish that. opportunity to run more.

And then the batting average, we've never seen him hit 337 before, but he basically cut his strikeout rate in half from the best it had been previously. He struck out 11.4% of the time. His low prior to that was 23.6%. So you can understand how it all came together for him. And, you know, at 25 years old,

it's a good chance he has more of those seasons to come. I will also say, changing to Mookie Betz here, you mentioned the batting average, can he do that again? I have my doubts about that. If I didn't have my doubts about that, maybe Mookie Bets would be my number two overall player. But him hitting 307, that's compared to, and again, we're talking about Mookie Bets now,

that's compared to the previous two years, he hit 269 and 264. And as somebody who doesn't make him particularly impactful contact and derives his power more from a high fly ball rate, it makes sense that Mookie Betts would end up with more of a middling batting average than what we saw from him this past year. That kind of fits the profile more at this stage of his career. It's not much of a base dealer anymore.

He did hit a career high in home runs. it was his second straight year setting a career high in home run. So at some point, you've got to wonder if regression's going to happen for Mookie Betts in that regard. Still, he's the lead-off hitter for the Dodgers, and he's been a first-round caliber player in Fannie FEC for so long. And he's second base eligible now. Probably going to be playing him in outfield regardless. But I'm not totally sanguine about Mookie Betz as a top five pick,

but I think weighing all the positives and negatives, he still comes out as a top five pick for me. The expected stats for what they're worth on Mookie Betts, 2.95XBA, he actually hit the ball the hardest of his career, 92.4 average exit velocity. But I think that kind of goes hand in hand. Will he maintain hitting the ball that hard? And if he does, then maybe he will maintain a very high batting average.

But, you know, previous years say that we probably shouldn't expect him to hit the ball as hard as he did again this season, at least just based on historical data that we have from him. Corby and Carol, I've talked about a lot down the stretch and even so far in the off season, just bringing up that shoulder injury that he suffered and dealt with a few different times throughout the season, had a torn laborman his shoulder back in 2021. Just wanted to bring up a quote here that I found after one of the incidents in July where he basically swung the bat and just dropped it and everyone thought his season was over. Quote, I took a swing and I felt a shift in my shoulder shocking tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hands go numb i was just holding it thinking

about it came out of the socket pretty much thought that the season was over the next day he was in the lineup so yeah i don't know maybe i'm overstating that but even just hearing a quote like that scott and tingling sensation felt like my shoulder came out of the socket thought my season was over that stuff scares me man and like the power did come down in the second half and like the power did come down in the second half. So I'm like, was that just natural regression or was that due to the shoulder? So I don't know. Well, it's crazy. The same thing happened again less than a week later. So he has that whole episode. We think, oh, okay, Corby and Carroll's done. Comes back. He's in the line of the next game, as you said. He hits a home run. Yeah. And then a couple days later,

he leaves again grabbing that shoulder and like, oh, the season's over. And then he's in the line up the very next day and then we don't hear about it again. You're right, the home run production. So that was July 4th when he was back in the lineup if I have this timeline right. And so July 4th to the end of the season, Corby and Carroll hits eight home runs in 75 games. It's not the kind of power production you want from a top five pick. And maybe there's reason to think everything isn't right with that shoulder. except he homers twice in the postseason.

Correct. You know? And the exit velocities were fine. It's not like there was a, it's not like his exit velocity tanked and that corresponded to the drop in home runs. So, you know, you got a 50 steel guy who's

probably in a worst case scenario going to hit you 20 home runs and it may be closer to 30. He played for four months counting the playoffs without that shoulder being an issue again, July, August, September, October. You have four months. I don't know.

I think it's kind of water under the bridge at this point, though I understand just the aesthetics of it make it hard to forget. Look, I might be on an island with that, and that's fine, but I just, I want to play it as safe as possible in the early rounds. I still think Corby Carroll is a first round pick. Don't get me wrong, but like Moogie Betts, Freddie Freeman, those guys just feel safer to me, and I'll probably have them ranked ahead of Corbyn Carroll this season.

The number four outfielder was Julio Rodriguez, who finished eighth overall in Roto. He hit 275 with 32 home runs, 102 runs, 103 RBI, 37 steals. Got off to this really slow start. The first three months of the year, he was batting 238. And then over the final three months, he hit 312 with 19 home runs, 19 steals,

and a 924 OPE. So it seems like all is good there and he turns 23 in December. Julio Rodriguez is obviously awesome. Kyle Tucker was the fifth best outfielder and he just hit 284, 29 homers. Finally got the counting stats up because he had the opportunity to bat in the middle of the Astros lineup. We've been waiting for this for years out of Dusty Baker. Obviously Dusty Baker no longer there. But 30 steals, 29 home runs for Kyle Tucker.

He's been between 29 and 30 home runs each of the past three years. The stolen bases have been on the rise each of the past three seasons as well. And then the number six outfielder was Cody Bellinger. He finished 12th overall in Roto. We spoke about him more in depth on our first base podcast. Feel free to add anything you want on Bellinger, Scott. But obviously, awesome seasons for Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Sucker. And again, likely to be top seven or eight picks, I would say, in fantasy.

Yeah, Julio Rodriguez is number three for me. So I would draft him ahead of Corby and Carroll. I would draft him ahead of Moogie Betts. It would be nice if he could avoid the slow start because there have been, you know, his rookie and sophomore seasons now. There's been a lot of panic in the air over Julio Rodriguez until the weather warms up and he just becomes an absolute monster. It would be nice if we could avoid that stage this upcoming season. He's just good right out of the gate. And who knows where his numbers end up if that happens, as it is, you know, a 32-home or 37-steel season.

it's not hard to see that turning into a 40-40 season. And that's why I think Julio Rodriguez is among that very special group of players, at the top of roto draft specifically in points leagues, he loses some value, that you have to take among the top five picks. Because if you can get a hitter like that who can deliver 40 to 50 steals, which is more possible now than we've seen in fantasy in a long time, That puts you so far ahead of the curve when it comes to balancing out your categories, that it's just something you have to take advantage of it.

You're crazy not to. So I'd like if Julio Rodriguez struck out less. I'd like if he was a bit more consistent from start to finish, but the totals are what they are and they're pretty spectacular. I want to highlight that he had a four-game stretch in mid-August. where he had no fewer than four hits in those four games. Four for six, five for five, four for six. His batting average went from 256 to 278.

Wow. And by the end of August, it was up to 286. So a two-week span, he brought his batting average up from 256 to 286. It ended up at 275, but like, that just kind of gives you inside the, a peek inside the streakiness for Julio Rodriguez. He kind of turned his whole season around with that stretch of games. That August, by the way, he hit 429 overall with an 1197 OPS. I mean, that was just a massive month, which really helped get his overall numbers back on track.

Kyle Tucker, anything you wanted to add on Kyle Tucker, Scott, I mean, seems like he's consistently around 25, 25, 35, 30, the past two years. And again, he finally got to hit in the middle of the lineup, 56 games batting third, 43 batting cleanup, 56 batting fifth. 56 batting fifth, which all helped him produce career best counting stats. So he's my number seven player for next year in Roto. You got the big base dealers in Acuna, Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, and Corbyn Carroll. You got Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, who are just spectacular hitters, who aren't total zeros for stolen bases. And then who, I think that's my top six.

and you'd be hard pressed to move me off that top six. Kyle Tucker's my number seven, but I'm less, I'm less committed to that, I would say, because, okay, yes, the home run stolen base combo is great. The stolen bases keep going up year after year for Kyle Tucker last three years,

14, then 25, then 30. So it doesn't seem like, it doesn't seem like he's shying away from that. But his sprint speed this year was only 32nd percentile, which means he was in the lower third as far as how fast he is, and he stole 30 bases. And it's been trending down. As the stolen bases have gone up,

the sprint speed for Kyle Tucker has gone down, and at some point, you have to wonder if the rubber's going to meet the road there, and he stops being such a base stealer. Also, he hit 288. this past year, that was compared to 257 in 2022. Now, given Kyle Tucker's strikeout rate,

I think the higher batting average is what we should expect from him, but there has been enough inconsistency there that I don't think you could etch it at stone. That's what you're getting from him. So, like, I do see some, I do see some reasons

to doubt Kyle Tucker. Given the hefty, price you're paying for him. Like, I don't think he's, I don't think it's, I don't think he's as straightforward as the numbers would suggest. But for now, I'm going with the numbers and taking him seventh overall next year, 2024. All right. The number seven outfielder was Juan Soto.

He finished 14th overall in Roto. He hit 275 with 35 homers, 97 runs, 109 RBI, 12 steals, and a 930 OPS. He had more walks and strikeouts for the fourth. straight year. We know that he got off to a slow start, but overall numbers obviously came out very good. Was helped out by a massive September where he hit 340 with 10 homers,

six deals, and 1156 OPS. Stackast numbers are still awesome. Subject to trade rumors right now, it seems more likely than not that Wansoto is going to be dealt. I got some, you know, the latest hot stove rumors coming up a little bit later on, but apparently the Yankees and Padres are swapping names and they're kind of trying to figure things out.

I'm sure other teams will try and get involved as well. The number eight outfielder was Adelis Garcia who finished 16th overall. Career highs across the board. 39 homers, 108 runs, 107 RBI. The problem, the steals went from 25 to 9. And that was pretty consistent for all the Texas Rangers under Bruce Bochie.

So I don't know that the steals are going to come back, but did some really nice things in terms of plate discipline, hit the ball really hard again, looked amazing in the playoffs. I think you know what you're going to get with Adelius Garcia, it's lower batting average and really, really good home runs and counting stats. And number nine was Luis Robert, who finally stayed healthy and mostly put it together. He hit 264, 38 homers, 20 steals, runs in RBI, leave a little bit to be desired. And I'm not

expecting the White Sox to be very good here in 2024 either, Scott. But, you know, some things about Luis Robert, just like the injury history, the plate discipline is really bad. I mean, he chases a lot. the swinging strike rate is really high. I love the player. I love watching him play. But like second round price tag for a guy who has warts like that, I don't know.

I'm a little bit scared off as my early feel on Luis Robert. But any thoughts on him, Adolius Garcia, and Juan Soto. Well, I think one of these things is not like the others. One Soto is, at least in the conversation to go in round one,

certainly round two, if not round one. And those other two, Luis Robert and Adolice Garcia. You know, the warts are a little more glaring there. I understand we've had our issues with Juan Soto. He's failed to live up to the hefty price tag the last two years. Mostly this has to do with batting average. He's not much of a base dealer.

His power production isn't top of the scales either. So for him to be a first round player in Roto leagues, five by five leagues. Points leagues are a different story because his plate discipline is second to none. But for him to be a first round caliber player in Roto Leagues, he really needs to deliver a high batting average. And we've seen from the last two years

that that's no guarantee. I do think there are plenty of 300 seasons in Soto's future. There's probably a batting title or two and one Soto's future. But since we can't pencil him in for a 300 batting average, in five by five leagues, I don't know that we should treat him like a first round anymore. For me, he's more like a mid-second rounder. But that could all change if he's traded

because I'm going to give you, I'm going to read off some stats for you here. Player A and player B. Let's do that fun thing. I don't know. Maybe that's not the way to handle this, but we're going to do it. So here's player A, 307 batting average, 1026 OPS. Player B, 240 batting average, 827 OPS. Player A is Juan Soto on the road last year. Player B is Juan Soto at home, hitting 240 with an 827 OPS. Petco Park, over the last three years, according to Stackcast, is the second worst place to hit overall.

And it seems like Juan Soto is susceptible to that. For his career, Juan Soto, who already... remind you is a career 284 hitter with a 946 OPS but his career in San Diego Juan Soto is only

a hang on let me get Petco up okay yeah for his career in San Diego Juan Soto 231 with a 783 OPS like it's it just doesn't seem like a good environment for him he goes to the Yankees

I mean that could be a total game changer you know it might be hard to pass him in the first round in that case. So definitely want to monitor Soto's off-season movement. A couple quick thoughts on the other two here before we move on. I think Louis Robert, obviously he's held back by supporting cast. The run-in-R-B-I totals aren't going to match up with everything else.

But, you know, he did deliver the 38 homers, the 20 steals. He more or less gave us what we were hoping to see if he could only stay healthy. But, you know, I don't think we should just assume he's going to stay healthy because he managed to stay relatively healthy playing 148 games. Remember, he hadn't even played 100 prior to that in a year. So that gives me a little bit of pause in addition to the run-in-R-BI concerns. Let me see where I rank him overall. Probably lower than the consensus.

I don't know. Where's Luis Robert going on average in early NFBC drafts? 27.7. Yeah, I have him 29th, so pretty much on part. though I have starting pitchers pushed down maybe more than early ADP does.

So that's the story with him. Adoli Scarcia, he's become a lot more power centric. He's more one-dimensional than I think we thought of him as the, we thought of him

being the previous two years. 39 home runs, that's great. Only nine stolen bases a drop from 25 the year before. Even though Stolenbazza were all the rage in 2023. Everybody was running more. Adoli Garcia was an exception. His plate discipline is still horrible.

Well, I guess the walks are improving. Pitchers are fearing him a little more. Yeah, no, he got a lot better. He cut the chase rate. He cut the swinging strike rate. He improved. It's still bad, but it's not as bad. You know, he hit 2.45, so he's a liability there.

The run in RBI production is good in the Rangers lineup. That helps to elevate him. I think beyond what the surface numbers look like. I don't know that, like I said, when in doubt go with the outfielder, but Adolice Garcia is probably a liability in batting average and not going to help much in stolen bases anymore. So I just don't know if I like the fit.

Those are two categories that you want to fill early in rotodrafts, and you're going to have to go pretty early for Adolice, Even I have him 40th overall, even though I don't really like him that much. I don't know. He's a tough one for me. Well, guess what, Scott? You like Adelis Garcia more than the early ADP because he's at 44.5. There's probably a few closers there going ahead of him in an FPC.

So far there, yeah, there's two. Devin Williams and Edwin Diaz. Yeah. So, I don't know. How do you feel about all? Dolis Garcia. You've always been more in his corner than I have. Fun player to watch. Love to rue for the guy, but it is an interesting skill set. I mean, I say all that. He just finishes the 16th

overall player in Roto, right? So he was amazing and he provides counting stats in one of the best lineups in baseball. But, yeah, I mean, what he's going to give you is home runs, runs in RBI. And again, kind of bad batting average. Not many steals anymore. it's got to be the right fit. I don't know. I think as of now, if he's like a mid-fourth round pick,

I'm probably not going to be as invested. If he still gave you like 20 steals, I'd be like, okay, yeah, I'm down to do it. But yeah, nine, not so much. Let's take our first break. When we return, we'll talk about Luis Severino to the Mets, a couple other hot stove rumors,

and then we'll get back into the outfield. We'll do that here on fantasy baseball today. Welcome back in. Let's break down the latest moves before we get back into our, our outfield recap. And as I mentioned, Luis Severino has agreed to a one year, $13 million deal with the New York. Metz spent the first eight years of his career with the Yankees. And now he joins manager Carlos Mendoza across town. Mendoza formerly with the Yankees.

Obviously, has some familiarity with Luis Severino. There is no way to sugarcoat it's got. Severino was awful this year, a 6.65 ERA that was seventh highest among pitchers. with at least 80 innings pitched, a 165 whip that was tied for the eighth highest. Everything just kind of went wrong. I mean, the strikeouts plummeted, the walk rate was elevated, he gave up 23 home runs, and only 89 in the third innings.

It's pretty crazy stuff. And I'm not really sure why. I don't know how to explain it. The fastball velocity was fine. Spin rates were all there. But for some reason that the whiff rate on the slider, it was just completely ineffective. It completely fell off.

Was he pitching hurt? I think that's entirely possible. He's dealt with a lot of injuries. He went on the IL with a strained lat right before the season. It's been an issue for him in the past as well. So I don't know. Maybe there's a chance that the Mets can kind of figure it out. And he pitches well for one year and then earns himself a multi-year deal,

kind of like the pitching version of Cody Bellinger. But I don't know how much we have to base that optimism off of right now. No, it's not much other than basically what you said, the individual pitch characteristics for Luis Severino were more or less the same as, as we saw in 2022. And I think it's worth reminding everybody, he was really good in 2022. You know, it was basically a three-year wait for Luis Severino with all the injuries. He hardly pitched between 2019 and 2021.

But then in 2022, where he actually threw more innings than in 2023. He had a 318 ERA, an E.R. even one whip, 9.9K per 9. It looked like the weight was worth it for Severino. And then this past year it was just a total dud with more injuries, didn't even get to 100 innings. I think I'd feel better about his chances of recapturing that prior form if he went somewhere other than the Mets who aren't exactly known as,

as, you know, magic makers. But it's a new front office, This is a new coaching staff. You know, maybe things could be different for the Mets. And maybe, you know, they ultimately were willing to pay him $13 million. Maybe they see something they can salvage with Luis Severino. Clearly nothing more than a late round flyer at this point. Because, you know, if he doesn't click right away,

you're probably going to drop him and move on to the flavor of the week, next flavor of the week on the waiver wire. But there is a chance. I'm saying there's a chance. Oh, there is a chance. Look, you mentioned it. 2022 was a strong season for him. 318 ERA, a 1.0 whip on the nose.

He was the SP 31 in head-to-head points per game. This is Luis Severino we're talking about, but, you know, he hasn't thrown more than 100 two innings since 2018. So we have a pretty big injury history and obviously coming off some big underperformance from Severino. We'll see if he can get it back with the New York Mets. Some other smaller moves. the red-signed reliever Emilio Pagan to a two-year deal,

the Royal signed Garrett Hampson to a one-year deal, and the Mets signed Joey Wendell to a one-year deal as well. And the latest hot stove rumors. Mentioned this earlier, the Padres and Yankees have exchanged names on potential players in a Wonsoto trade, but nothing is close to happening as of now. Apparently Anthony Volpe, Jason Dominguez,

Clark Schmidt, and Michael King were all mentioned. Obviously, the Padres are going to ask for the best young players from the Yankees, and I don't know, we'll see where it goes from there. John Morosi reported that the trade talks regarding Dillon Seas have intensified in the last two days and that a deal is increasingly possible prior to next week's winter meetings.

Just reading the T. Leaves, Scott, it sounds like your Atlanta Braves, the Dodgers, and probably the Baltimore's. I think those are probably the three most likely candidates for Dill and C's to get traded to as of now. but we shall see. The brewers are apparently looking to negotiate an extension with their top prospect, outfielder Jackson Chorio,

and Ken Rosenthal wrote that if a deal gets done, it's likely Chorio will be on the opening day roster, which would change things for his fantasy value quite a bit. Chorio is, I think, one of the five best prospects in all of baseball. He turns just 20 years old in March. This past season hit 282 with 22 homers, 44 steals. That was mostly in AA to get six games in at

AAA. The early ADP is 250.7. But if he signed this extension, Scott, I could see that number climbing 75, 100 spots for Jackson Trio. Yeah, hot take, I'm not sure it's contingent on the extension.

The extension would make it almost a foregone conclusion he's on the major league roster, but like they're not going to keep them. They're not going to be able to keep Jackson Chorio down until August. They're going to use up his rookie eligibility this year. And wouldn't they rather have a shot at getting an extra draft pick by, you know, he's got to be on the roster opening day and stay on it all season for him to be a candidate to earn them an extra draft pick. So I think there's a chance he makes the opening day roster regardless. And this, this just makes it even clearer that that's how the brewers are thinking. They just hope that the whole extra year of control thing doesn't have to factor into the decision making. This early ADP's got 250.5th outfielder off the board for Jackson Trio.

Do you think that climbs? Does that sound right to you? What do you think? Let me see where I rank him. And I could stand to rank him higher myself, I'm sure. I have him 54th. That's almost exactly what you said, right? Yeah, 55th in ADP. Yeah. I have Chorio 54th. I have White, Langford, 46th. This is a stretch of outfielders that gets really difficult to rank

because it's like just kind of just pick your favorites. They all have strengths and weaknesses, and it's not like any clearly outclasses the other. Obviously, Choreo, Langford, young guys like that have a ton more upside than the players you're ranking them alongside. But, you know, it's not like they're going to make good on it right away, in all likelihood. All right,

there have been some whispers of trade rumors on both Boba Chet and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Not sure that I'm buying it. Would be extremely surprising, I think, for either of those guys to be moved. There also have been some whispers of Randy and Rosarena being on the trade block. We know it sounds like the Tampa Bay Rays

want to cut some payroll. Tyler Glass now, seems like they're shopping him. Will they actually move a Roserana? I think he has either two or three more years of team control. That would surprise. me for Tampa Bay.

I don't know. I think we rate a Rosarena higher as fantasy players than he actually rates in real life. He's not a great defender. A lot of his values from speed, which is, you know, station to station. Obviously, stolen bases are more valuable

in fantasy than real life. So I could see him being moved. It's the raise M.O. not to be fearful when they feel like a player's maxed out his value and is going to be a financial detriment to them moving forward. They got a

great backlog of talent, as always. Got to see Jonathan Ironda get at bats somewhere. So I wouldn't surprise me if they moved a Rosarina as well. And I think the Braves have been mentioned as a possibility for him. They got to do something because they keep missing out on everybody

their link to. Yeah. Braves could use a left-fielder so that would make some sense. The winter meetings start next week, so giddy up should be fun. It sounds like there's a chance. Otani signs by the end of winter meetings. I've heard that multiple times. So yeah, we couldn't know by the end of next week. That would be some pretty crazy stuff.

And big thanks to everybody sending in those Spotify gift wrap tweets and X's. Love to see it. A bunch of people pointing out how much they've listened to us over the past year. And obviously we're super grateful and appreciative of that. So continue sending them in. It's awesome stuff to see. Let's continue on with our Outfield Recav, Scott. And number 10, 11, and 12.

We have Lane Thomas, Christian Yelich, and Josh Lowe. Lane Thomas coming off a career year. Obviously had some free reign with the Nationals, the team that's not really competing for much. 28 homers, 1001 run scored, 86 RBI, 20 steals, awesome year. Notice some things with him. The splits are massive. He was amazing against lefties, amazing at home,

terrible against righties, terrible on the road. Also took a pretty big step back in the same. second half. That's Lane Thomas. Christian Yelich, awesome year for him. He was solid last year, but then kind of really picked it back up this season. 278 batting average, 19 homers, 106 run scored, 28 steals, only three caught stealing. So incredibly efficient on the base paths. But again, like started to get dinged up with his back injury, fell off in August and September. So I just worry about that year over year for Christian Yelch. He's getting up there. Turns 32 in December. And Josh Lowe, this was the post-hype sleeper, which came to fruition.

292 batting average, 20 homers, 32 steals. He was one of just seven players to go 20 homers, 30 steals this past season. Cut the strikeout rate down tremendously. But we do kind of have that Tampa Bay race thing here, Scott, where doesn't play as much as other awesome fantasy players, right? Doesn't play against lefties, hasn't been great against lefties. So I don't think that's really going to change for Josh Lowe. I mean, well, he was still great for fantasy.

but I don't know if it'll change. I don't know if it'll change, but I think it could change. If they trade Randy or Rosa Rana, if they trade Randy or Rosa Rana, they are kind of anointing Josh Lowe as their new offensive leader, right? Is there somebody I'm overlooking?

Well, Jonathan Aronda, come on, Scott. Yeah, maybe someday. I mean, Brandon Lowe's been banged up a lot in recent years, so it wouldn't be him. Yeah. Yeah, it probably would be, I guess. Yandi Diaz is a, but, you know, better in real life than fantasy.

No, I think, I think Josh Lowe, or I'm sorry, Josh Lowe's going to make me second-guess, second-guess every low that ever comes across my screen ever again. Josh Lowe, I think, is amazing. And I do think, because of the playing time, concerns people are underestimating how impactful he could be in fantasy. I mean, 20 homers, 32 steals, high batting average. You know, getting to 32 steals with the batting average and the power, despite losing some playing time. I mean, what does that say about how Josh Lowe could be, how good Josh Lowe could be?

Could he be? Could he approach Corbyn Carroll numbers with true full-time at bats? It doesn't seem so far-fetched. Well, you have to imagine, look, he's still young. Maybe he'll be all right against lefties. I mean, he wasn't very good against him. This year he hit 238 with a 712 OPS. So if he plays more against lefties,

that'll drag down the batting average a little bit. I mean, maybe he could still hit 270 with maybe it becomes 25 homers and 40 steals, which is still a really awesome player. But I guess you're kind of looking at a class half full, which is entirely possible. But you kind of need to in the outfield, you know? Yeah, I hear that. You get past the first and second round types.

The problem, I see 5001 plate appearances. That was 51st among outfielders. And right. If it doesn't improve, then it still kind of puts a cap. I mean, I say all that he just finishes a top 12 outfielder, right? So, I don't know. Maybe I'm just, maybe I'm just judging harshly. Maybe.

And I know everybody likes exit velocity. I like exit velocity. His exit velocities are, you know, average exit velocity pretty middle of the pack. But expected batting average was 85th percentile. Expected slug was 81st percentile, in spite of the middling exit velocities, Josh Lowe. Stack has to like Josh Lowe, said he was, you know, pretty much who he presented himself to be. And so I think if you miss out on the studs, he should be a top target for it.

Even if you get some of the studs, you know, in a five outfield, really, you should, Josh Lowe should be a top target for you. On our first mock draft, that rotomock draft, where my outfield turned up pretty nice. I drafted Josh Lowe. I think he was my second outfielder, unless I'm remembering wrong. I think in a Roto League, I'd feel good about that.

Yeah, I haven't ranked 19th at the position, so I feel good about it. Yeah. Yeah, no, I like him a lot. Let's see, who else did we talk about here? We had Lane Thomas and Yellich. Yeah. My initial instinct was to bury Lane Thomas in my rankings

because strikes me as an overachiever, bad second half numbers. I ended up putting them 26th for next year. And early ADP has him 24th. So I'm basically in line with that. Outfield is so bad. You know, I said at the top, right, there are 25 outfielders I feel good about having as my starter.

And then I just said Lane Thomas is 26th for me. So he's the first outside of that. Like clearly he performed like a must start player in 2023. I don't really buy it. But once you get past those top 25, you know, you have to like build in opportunities for players to exceed expectations. And at least we just saw Lane Thomas succeed expectations. So I'm discounting him, but probably to about the same extent, everybody else is. And then as for Yelich, I think the fact that he took advantage of the new stolen base rules

has him as like a borderline elite outfielder. You know, there's the injury risk. He's obviously not the power hitter anymore. He's obviously not the power hitter he used to be. But he gets on base a ton. And if he's going to be like a 30 steel guy, guy instead of the 15 to 20 steel guy we had seen him be the previous three years then you know that that's pretty good that's pretty good that uh that covers up that makes up for a lot of those warts that have

been developing for yellich and injury risk sure but you know some good some good things he does too who do you rank higher between josh low and christian yellich i have yelich 17th and low 19th but i'm more excited about low i think i would take low ahead of yelich Yeah, I might have to think about that a little more. Now, if it's a points league, the walk difference there, I think moves yell at your head. And the volume, yeah. Just whenever he's healthy, he's going to play every day where, again, we can't say that for sure when it comes to Josh Lowe. Let's take our final break.

When we return, we'll try and finish out the final, I don't know what do we got here, 12 outfielders to talk about. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's continue on with our outfield recap number 13, 14, and 15. this past season. We had Fernando Tatis, Nick Castellanos, and Randy Arosa Rana.

Fernando Tatis, first year back from suspension, shoulder, and wrist surgeries still hit 25 homers, 29 steals, only 257 batting average, and a 770 OPS. We'll see if, you know,

maybe one year under his belt, another off season can kind of get back on track. But there are reasons to question it, obviously. The number 14, we mentioned Nick Castellanos, huge bounce back year, second season in Philadelphia, hit 272 with 29 home runs, 106 RBI with 11 steals. The RBI and steals were actually both career highs for him. That play discipline just continues to get worse and worse. I mean, he's always chased pitches, but we're talking about like a 43, 44% chase rate for Nick Castianos.

I mean, eventually it's going to catch up to him. And then number 15, Randy Orozerena, 254 batting average, 23 homers, 22 steals, three straight years going 2020 with an OPS between 773 and 815. He got off to that awesome start last year, was not nearly as good over the final five months. But when you look up at the end of the season, the past three years, Randy O'Rosurana has gotten it done. And I think that's what matters, at least from a roto perspective. Scott, your thoughts on those three? Well, I mean, they seem like they belong in different tiers, right?

Oh, yes. Tatis belongs in the stud tier. We're expecting him to bounce back. Is that the right word? He should be better than he was. He was pretty good, as it is. Coming back from wrist surgery, shoulder surgery, PED suspension, having missed basically the first month of the year,

25 homers, 29 steals. That's pretty great. He did only hit 257, but here's the thing for Fernando Tatis. His expected batting average was 281. It was 87th percentile. His strikeout rate was actually a career low. He hit the ball plenty hard. Not quite as hard as he was before, but pretty darn hard.

And I think it's more likely that the numbers improve than stay the same for Fernando Tatis. So he's a first rounder for me. And part of the reason he was as low as 13th this past year because he missed that time at the beginning of the year, I'm sure. So that's him. I would say Randy Rosarena belongs as kind of a second-tier outfielder, similarly ranked for me to Adolice Garcia and Christian Yellich,

right in between the two is where I have. have a Rose Arena. He's another one of those players, you know, Tommy Admin being one. I don't know. There were a couple examples I mentioned in the infield where because his stolen base output remained the same while the rest of the leagues improved, it kind of doesn't seem so special anymore. There are a lot more stolen bases out there and he's not as much of a standout in the category

himself, a Roserena stealing 20, bases this year. He had 32 in 2020. So he actually took a step back while the rest of the league was taking a step forward. And what's worse, he gets caught stealing a lot.

A team that values efficiency as much as the raise, presuming he is still with the raise next year. I don't know. They may not want him running so much. That's a little concerning for Rosarani because it's such a big part of his output. He's not a huge power source.

It doesn't generally end up with a good batting average. By the way, I don't think you gave the exact numbers. Second half, a Rosarina hit 220 with a 700 OPS. I have the numbers from the final five months, Scott. I mean, you just take out that first month. From May on, a Rosarana hit 236 with a 745 Ops. So this is what I mean, because I didn't speak very fondly of Adolice Garcia,

really Christian Yelich or Randy Rosarina, basically that entire tier of outfielders. once the studs are gone, I don't really like them that much. And this is supposed, we're still within that top 25 that I'd be comfortable having as my starter, you know?

So like, and I don't even like them that much. So it's, it's tough, you know? It feels like I'm giving a lot of benefit of the doubt to players I don't actually like because the position demands it.

So that's sad. And then Nick Castiano, he's outside the top 25 for me. Like he doesn't provide stolen bases, obviously. He's not much of a help in batting average anymore. Pretty good power source. Could have a nice RBI total in the Phillies lineup, but just kind of Hunter Renfro-like, you know?

More like, okay, this guy's good enough to fill out my lineup, but I don't really want him to be a prominent part of my lineup. And he turns 32 in March. I mentioned some of that plate discipline chasing pitches. I think eventually it really could catch up to him and kind of bottom out for Castiano. So maybe it's not 2024, but it could be soon thereafter. Last point on Randy Rose Arena,

I know I pointed out like awesome start, not great for May on, but again, it's just like by the end of the season, he's finished as a top 50 player each of the past three years in Roto. So in deeper leagues, he's actually a guy I like, because he's like a set it and forget it. You know you're going to get 20, 20 out of him. I know he's been inefficient, but I think he's still going to run, at least in 2024.

You know, he's just been pretty consistent, I guess, in that way over the past couple years. Number 16, 17, and 18, we have Kyle Schwerber, Yordon Alvarez, and Aaron Judge. Obviously, those latter two names, ranking a little bit lower because they missed a ton of games this past season. But we'll start with Kyle Schwerber. he hit 197.

But what he did with that was 47 homers, 108 runs scored, 104 RBI, a 343 on base percentage. He has 46 or more home runs, 100 plus run scored, 94 plus RBI, two years in a row. He also is betting 207 since the start of 2022, which is the third lowest among qualified hitters.

So I love the power. I love the counting stats. But in a Roto league, standard Roto, there's no way. I can't take on that batting average. In a points league, he's great. He's like a top 10 outfieler. He's awesome. Number 17, Yuron Alvarez, we say the same thing every year, Scott.

I mean, he's in contention for best pure hitter in the game, power and contact combined. Hit 293, 31 home runs, did that in just 114 games. But again, another year where he dealt with injuries. Now, you know, the past three years, 144 games, 135, 114. That's trending the wrong way, obviously. And then number 18 was Aaron Judge, who still managed to hit 37 home runs in just 106 games. His 150 game pace, still 52 homers, 111 run scored, 106 RBI, missed a bunch of games because of a fractured toe, only played, like I said, in 106 games this past season.

Lots of power here, Scott. What do you think on Schwerber, Alvarez, and Judge? Yeah. So, again, Schwerver's in a different category. And he's really difficult to build around in a Roto League. You already touched on this. I mean, such a great power source. But he's going to drag down your batting average.

And I've stressed a lot in recent weeks that batting average is something you have to fill early. So unless you get like, you know, surefire 300 hitters with your first two or two of your first three picks. Uh, it's, it's going to be, it's going to be hard to justify taking Schwabur as early as he's going to go. And, and maybe everybody in your draft will feel that way and he'll slip to round six or something. And you, you know, you won't be able to, uh, to be able to pass it up. Actually, I'm looking at his early ADP. What it is about round six, isn't it? It looks, it's the early eighth round.

Hmm. All right. And where does Yelich go? because I have Schwerber ranked spot ahead of Yelich. Yeah, maybe I'm higher on Schwerber than the consensus. I don't know. But it's tough. Like, it's tough to fit it.

I get it. I get the hesitance to draft Schwerber among those who are actually drafting right now versus me just ranking a guy where he should go in theory. Yeah, that's a tough one. I don't plan on having him a lot, even though it seems like I'm higher than the consensus on him. But Alverson Judge. Look, Judge was the number one player in fantasy next year.

I kind of feel like Alvarez is as close to being Aaron Judge as any player in baseball could be. Alvarez could have a year where he hits 315 with 50 homers. That's within his capabilities. So, like, the only reason they get pushed out of the first round next year, if they do get pushed out of the first round, is just injury concern. That's the only reason. And it's fair. I mean, like, as I've said a lot also,

there's like a round and a half worth of first round caliber players and somebody has to get pushed out. Maybe you push out those guys because they're not big base dealers and because they have that injury risk. But they could end up being hugely productive top five players in fantasy. In 2024, nobody should be surprised if they do. And I am more likely to take a chance on Alvarez or judge, the shallower the format is.

If you're playing a 10-team league, you know, even a 12-team points league, yeah, I want guys like that on my team. They have massive upside where the replacement value is going to be better. Once you get into, okay, 15 team leagues, ALN only, stuff like that, it's harder to take on the risk because, you know, if those guys go down, it's really, really hard to replace what you were expecting them to give you. So that's probably how I would approach Alvarez and Judge heading into 2024. The number 19 outfielder was Spencer Stier.

We spoke about him on our first base recap. Number 20 was T.J. Friedel. That's right. He finished 51st overall in Roto. You see what we're talking about? The 20th best outfielder was T.J. Friedel. Not to take anything away from T.J. Friedel. But number 21 was Brian Reynolds, who has also been very consistent

over the past couple of years. Friedel hit 18 home runs, 27 steals. Solid plate discipline. He makes a lot of contact. He also hits a lot of infield fly balls. It's a very weird profile. his 17% infield fly ball rate, fifth highest in baseball. Those are automatic outs.

This is not someone that hits the ball hard. In fact, he does the complete opposite. You know, very lucky to call Great American Ballpark Home because he hit extremely well there. He had 18 home runs with just 13 barrels. It's just, I don't know. The ADP for T.J. Friedel, he's going very low, so you don't have to worry about it, but he's just an interesting player.

Friedel's expected slug is second percentile. His expected slug. 321 is his expected slug. He actually slugged 467, so a huge difference there between what stat cast says Friedel should have been and what he actually was. Brian Reynolds, the other name I mentioned here, he finished 21st overall.

21st among outfielder's, 52nd overall in Roto, 22nd outfielder and head-to-pointed points leagues, 24 homers, 85 runs, 84 RBI, career high 12 steals. You like to see that from Reynolds. He's always someone we pegged as a player we thought could run more because he does have a little bit higher sprint speed.

He's been rock solid, Scott. And based on the expected numbers, they think that Brian Reynolds could be even better. He's a player that I have gravitated towards already, that I could see myself liking. He's not going to blow you away, but I think a very safe floor. If you get him as like your second or third outfieler,

I think that's awesome. I've been a Brian Reynolds backer for a few years now and mostly been dissatisfied with the results. Like, is expected batting average was 280. He only hit 263. And that's kind of what's frustrating about him is we've seen a couple times him deliver really good batting average. And if you count on that being part of Brian Reynolds' output,

then, you know, he'd be pretty much a stud. He'd be like a number two outfielder in fantasy. But it's been so up and down. It's not helped by a supporting cast. He's not helped by his home venue. He's also a pretty fast runner. He did have her career high 12 steals this past year,

but he didn't take advantage of the rules the way, the new rules the way I hoped he would and become like a 20 steal threat. Maybe he still does. I mean, maybe we see running increase around the league even more next year because players have now seen other players take advantage of it and know what they can do to manipulate that more.

It's still a possibility, but I see Reynolds as, you know, he's one of the 25 I'm comfortable having as a starter, but he's on the lower end of that group, I would say. A couple more words on Friedel here. When you consider how precarious that power production, is, it's hard to make a big investment. He's not in my top 25 for next year. It's hard to do because it seems like it could evaporate.

It could suddenly just disappear. And if the power production disappears for Friedel, maybe the at-bats do too, because it's not like with all those, the young players, the Reds are breaking in. It's not like Friedel has, I don't perceive him as having a ton of job security. He did a good job of getting on base this past. And if it continues, okay, he'll stay in the lineup. But, you know, it just seems like a lot of ways things could go wrong for him.

Sort of like Spencer Stier, his teammate, who's also finished in this range. You know, I wanted to, I don't know if I could pull this up fast enough, but I'm pretty sure T.J. Friedel led baseball in bunts for hits too. I feel like whenever I was watching a Reds game, they would talk about it. So, I mean, what happens if some of those go away as well, you know? Does the batting average come down too? It's just, look, you don't have to invest too much in him. He's like the 33rd outfielder off the board right now,

so it's not a huge investment, but I do see a lot of different ways where things could go wrong for T.J. Friedel. The final trio offers varying skill sets here, Scotty. And number 22 was Estuary Ruiz, who hit 254 with five home runs, but he had 67 steals, which were second most in baseball behind only Ronald Lecuna, the quality of contact was awful.

I mean, if we're being honest, almost everything was awful outside of the stolen bases this year for Estuary Ruiz, but he did have a lot of them. Number 23 was George Springer, who had 21 homers and 20 steals. He was one of 19 players to go 2020 this past season. Starting to get up there, 34 years old. The 732 OPS was a career low.

See the barrel rates consistently dropping. I mean, kind of. precipitously too, so he has a lengthy injury history as well. I mean, Springer is fine. I think he kind of just is what he is at this point. And then Anthony Santander, who hit 28 home runs, that's back-to-back seasons, 28 plus homers, and 89 plus RBI. So if you're looking for power at this point in the draft, then I think Santander is a fine option. If he needs speed, I guess it's Ruiz, but he is a weird player to build around and he even lost some playing time in the second half. So I don't know how legit the job security is for Estuary Ruiz.

No. I'm just going to say it. Estuary Ruiz was a bad major leaguer in 2023. Maybe for no player was there a greater difference between his fantasy value and his real life value because that Steele's output is so valuable, certainly in Roto Leagues and even in points leagues. I mean, it adds up to a decent point total. but he's a bad on base guy, no power, not such a good defender

for being as fast as he is, a pretty bad defender, actually. And even the athletics, as bad as they are, got to a point late in the year where they couldn't justify playing him every day. And if Estuary Ruiz isn't playing every day, it'd have to be a pretty deep roto league

where you're starting him, I think. I don't not like where he's going, in early drafts. I have him way down in my rent, 39th. I'm 39th in my outfield rankings. I have him low enough that I pretty much guaranteeing

I'm not getting him. And it would have to be an emergency situation. Like you really just totally fell asleep on, with stolen bases, I think, to make a play for him,

given all the concerns there. I like George Springer well enough. I have him. ranked just behind Brian Reynolds for next year. I think, you know, proven track record, a pretty good spot there with the Blue Jays, not as productive as he used to be.

But I think, you know, part of his disappointing home run output, Springer, was just that he was pulling the ball less early in the year. And he kind of got back to it later in the year, the power output increase. So I don't know that it's like, true decline from this guy.

And meanwhile, he started running more, had his first ever 2020 season. So I think George Springer is still a worthy starter in the outfield. And one of the last that I feel good about having is a starter, even though he only finished 23rd. I mean, that's about what I rank him in outfield for next year. But I think he's fine. Okay.

Any final notes on Anthony Santander? It just is what he is, you know, kind of one-dimensional. Slugger. I'm not going to be excited to draft him, but there will certainly be instances where I view him as worth drafting. Yeah, that's about it. All right.

We're going to wrap there for Scotty. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.