Fantasy Baseball Today - 2023 Relief Pitcher Recap! Early Closer Predictions w/ Greg Jewett! (12/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 28, 2023

Please welcome Greg Jewett to help us recap relief pitchers (2:30)! ... Closers seem more stable than previous years (7:15). ... What is our strategy in saves plus holds leagues (16:35)? ... Let's recap the top-10 relievers, starting with Devin Williams and Alexis Diaz (19:51). ... Camilo Doval and David Bednar both broke out in a big way (27:07). ... Can Tanner Scott maintain his control gains (30:41)? ... What happened with Emmanuel Clase (36:00)? ... Jordan Romano and Raisel Iglesias both seem rock solid (40:21). ... News (42:31): Mitch Garver signed a two-year deal with the Mariners. ... Let's wrap up 2023 by predicting each team's closer on Opening Day (48:07)! To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Last podcast of the year, that means our final position recap of 2023. Welcome in to Fancy Baseball today on Thursday, December 28th.

I am Frank Stamphill. No Scott White. No Chris Welsh, both are off enjoying the holidays, but I've got a very special guest with me that I'll get to in just a second. Today on the show, we are recapping relief pitchers and taking a look at the state of closers in fantasy. We're going to make some early predictions on each bullpen and the latest news and notes. Mitch Garver signed with the Mariners. We'll get to all of that. But first, joining me today is a bullpen expert.

The owner of Reliever Recon, he writes for the athletic and contributes to baseball HQ. you, welcome back to the show. Good friend, Greg, Jewett. Thanks for hopping on. Greg. We really appreciate it, man. Of course, Frank. It's, you know, no need a long time and obviously respect everything that you do. So it's always an honor to be on the CBS flagship here. So, yeah, I think this is a third year in a row doing the closer review, preview. It feels like it was just yesterday, right? We've had you on three years in a row. And again, I can't think of anyone better. And for anyone out there, before you make the mistake of just assuming and Greg only knows about relief pitching.

It's not true. He is your reigning, defending, Tout Wars head-to-head champion, the man who ended my quest for the three-peat. And truly one of the great players out there, congrats on the win. Had to give you a shout out, obviously. Back-to-back years, we were facing off in the championship, but you got it done and a job well done.

You deserve it. I appreciate that, Frank. It's going to be a tough act to follow with the stretch you had there, But hopefully I can share well. I know Ariel's already gunning for me, but we'll see how it goes. I can tell you for certain that he is because we went out to lunch a few weeks ago. And yeah, he's like, oh, that Greg Jewett, I'm coming for him.

But we'll save that for another day. Make sure to follow Greg on Twitter X, whatever you call it nowadays, at G-J-J-J-J-J-T-B-E-W-E-T-N. That is G-J, the G-J, just back-to-back. It kind of like throws me off a little bit. G-J-E-W-E-T-T-Nine. Follow him on Twitter and on X. Let everybody know what you're up to and what you offer at the Reliever Recon Patreon

because it is a fantastic tool. There is so much there to use and learn from. And I am a subscriber as well. Look, as much as we do this every single day within the season, there is a lot to keep up with specifically in bullpens, usage, high leverage rolls, closers, saves, paying attention to all of it, and you guys do a great job. Well, I appreciate that. As Mike Curlin and a few other people that I've spoken to, we're kind of the niche specialist, I guess, is the best way to say it. I try and just be a cheat code.

And I've got wonderful people working with me. Name Markham, Aaron Pags, Don Relo, I can say his name now. So, you know, they do great work. And I'm bringing my little nepotism this year, bringing my son on board to do some more stuff with social media presence. But we just try and cover everything. You know, Nate does an in-season solds column. So, you know, the folks that play in that format, we don't just specialize on saves. Dom does the daily streamer for those that play in head-to-head leagues that can do daily transactions.

It's a tremendous resource that he tracks down those wins and saves better than anybody that I can think of. There's a couple of spin-off things on X now that have done. taking kind of what he does and running with it, which is cool. You know, it's always nice when that stuff happens. And then Aaron Pags, he heads point on all of our graphics. And he does a points league article, which is a lot of the CBS players do. So anyways, we try and cover everything. And then the closer charts that I make available, I update those daily. I try and track swing, strike percentage, strike percentage, which relievers might be changing in their roles and how

those things are coming down the pike. And, you know, as our notes are going to reflect, last year was a little calmer than it has been in years past. But, you know, our goal, and I'd tell you, probably the best thing we do is the fantasy Fab 5 on every Sunday. We tailor that for the folks in the end of BC, but we give our recommendations of relievers to either add now or try to get a week or two ahead of the curve and save you at those precious fad dollars, which, you know, I learned the lesson of that in my first main event experience this year.

It's managing that fab is always something that's been difficult for me. And it's something that we really try and hone in on it. And by doing those recap reports, too, it really gave us a feel of how much people will be going for as the year progressed. Yeah. And that fab five that you mentioned on Sundays, it's something that I read and I listen to every single Sunday before I do my fab. So it's a great tool.

And I recommend everyone checks it out. Again, that's we'll leave a recon over on Patreon. before we jump in, again, this is our final podcast of the year. Happy New Year to all, and thank you so much for the continued support this past year. It's cliche, but obviously it means a lot, and, you know, we couldn't do any of this without you. The listeners, people who watch us on YouTube, supporters. So thanks again. We really do appreciate it.

Everyone, make sure you have a happy and healthy new year. Let's get into the state of relief pitching first and foremost, and you kind of touched on it already a little bit, but this year was more stable than years past. I mean, we saw 12 relievers with 30 plus saves. In 2022, that was 10. In 2021, that was 9. This past season, we saw 23 relievers with 20 plus saves. Last year, that was 18.

The year before that, it was 19. So it feels more stable up top, but it also kind of feels like those could be famous last words, right? How much is something like that sticky? Is it we have new managers that took over, a Skip Schumacher who really kind of just leaned on one reliever and a closer in that role. Is a combination of, you know, relievers just pitching better? Or was it just kind of like a random variance thing?

And you don't really know what to expect heading into 2024. I don't know that's variance. But, you know, year to year, it's really hard to say what's going to be sticky and what isn't. But what we do, what we do see is, and one of the things that we, I try and focus on more than I never used to was the game finish. is like the guys who are finishing the game. I mean, it's really a simple step, but the guy who's getting the most ninth innings or finishing out a contest for his team.

And those were more streamlined. So, you know, we keep talking about how bullpens evolve and teams want to play their highest leverage relievers in the biggest moments. But, you know, and a lot of it is going to be contractual base too. Like, you know, Tampa Bay signed Pete Fairbanks to a very team-friendly deal. And now they didn't have to worry about manipulating arbitration. because they've got them signed for below market value, so they're going to use them in the ninth inning as much as possible.

Now, however many innings he logs is another no for another day. But, you know, it's situations like that that kind of make these things come a little more into fruition. And there was some key injuries at different points that kind of put people into those roles. Like nobody planned on Craig Kimball getting the amount of saves that he did. But when Jose Alvarado seemed to be really like making his mark, As the guy in that bullpen, he went down with the elbow issue for the first time and that opened the door for Kimbril. And he ran with it. He converted his first 16 save chances after a rough beginning of the year. He kind of settled in and did his thing.

So, you know, every team is going to have different circumstances. But you had teams like Baltimore and Cincinnati that were always like these crazy, we can't predict what's going to happen in those bullpens. You know, Felix Batista to calm things down. Cincinnati turned over the reins to Alexis Diaz for the season. And so, you know, as guys get a foothold and make these things happen, it kind of changes the landscape as we saw and things that you said, you know, is David Bednar going to give 39 saves again this year? We have no idea.

But at least the team gave them the chance to do it. You know, and so those are the things that we have to just kind of monitor. And a lot of it presented itself early in the season. The things kind of settled in. It was pretty much injuries that derail people. You know, Housley was one of the only guys that went in the first, I think, 12 relievers taken and that really didn't break even or provide a stable floor just because, but it was injury.

It wasn't performance base. It was just he was out. So will that translate, hopefully, but we'll have to see how all the plays out this season. All right, let's dive into, I guess, a little bit of strategy based on different formats. And we'll start with Roto, the classic five by five, where you have nine pitcher spots and you could divvy them up, six starting pitchers, three relievers, seven starting pitchers, two relievers, maybe you feel a little bit more confident in your two closers, and so you can choose to write it out like that. What is your ideal strategy? And has this new landscape changed it at all?

I mean, maybe, you know, in years past, you'd feel more comfortable, oh, I have to get two closers early. But maybe now the way that the landscape is set up, you say, all right, I can get a top 10 guy, and then I can wait a little bit, get a top 20 guy, wait a little bit. What's your strategy in Roto? I try and really heed to, you know, we can't say that like those 80th percentile numbers we like to quote are going to be the same year to year. But I try and just get myself in that. I'm trying to think of no matter what, 65 saves between my top two relievers. If I'm projecting 65 saves of those guys and I can kind of spackle in or figure out the rest. There might be a week where my starters have tough matchups or one or two of them is going to cores and I'm going to actually play a third reliever.

instead or I want to manage ratios for a week. However, you know, you can use that that last spot kind of the way that your matchups present themselves, I think has been the best way for me. And of course, you know, TAL provides unique matchups that we can change pitchers on Fridays, which most formats can. So it's kind of a, it changes a little of the strategy with that league as well. But for the most part, I'm thinking usually I prefer seven two if I can. But again, And there will be weeks where I go 6-3 and there's even, you know, some other weeks where it's 5-4 if I've got a bunch of two-star pitchers doing with good matchups. And then I'm just going to try and make a run of the week for get a couple of saves in the bank that I might not have planned on. And then I can just adjust as I move forward.

And you have to really track your standings and all those things. But, yeah, that's 7-2 is probably ideal. But again, your weekly matchups really dictate that. Yeah, I think that's a good point too. And especially later on in the season, you kind of. kind of decided for you almost, depending on which categories you need, right? If you see yourself falling behind in saves, and obviously I think you want a third or even sometimes getting a fourth reliever in your lineup. But, you know, if you're doing well in wins and

strikeouts and I think, you know, you're good in saves. And then you probably could look to go with a few less relievers, depending on where you are in your standing. So I think that's something that pay attention to more so in season. But okay, you like to get at least try to target for 65 saves between your top two relievers in that format. Head to head points. We've talked about a little bit. Tau Wars is definitely unique in what you mentioned. You could set your lineups on Mondays and Fridays. So I think that kind of changes the strategy a little bit. But a lot of people listening here who play on CBS, they play in points leagues where you can, you do have some starting pitchers that have relief pitcher eligibility,

those sparse out there. Cole Reagan's entering next season, Nick Pavetta, you know, guys like Frankie Montas and Chris Paddock. What is your strategy in that format? How much is it changed? Do you like to get maybe one closer you trust and then try to get a few sparse that you mix in? What do you think about head-ted points? Yeah, I had that on my mind. And, you know, this year in our auction, that was definitely.

And then I think after one of them went off the board, people like, oh, wait a minute, and they kind of scrambled at the last second, not realizing that we could get those relievers in that spot. So I won't be able to have that on my back pocket. this year, though I won't be competing with you for like Zach Eflin and things of that nature. So, yeah, it's a definitely, and again, as we said with the matchups, you know, you look at the thing, how many stars do I have? Do I need? Where can I, where can I get those points? I was fortunate enough to get Felice Battista last year. And then I thought I was doing myself a favor again, Christian Javier as my spark guy, but that didn't work out that

terrifically as the season progressed. But yeah, the names you mentioned, I was, I was fortunate to add Nick Povetta during Tau. That was a big pickup. And again, my guy, Dom, the bullpen guru at Reliever Econ, was touting him. I added him because I just wanted him to be in there to get those, you know, vulture starts. But, you know, they eventually put him in the rotation. And he had a pivotal start in our last match up there. But so they definitely have more value in that form of a setup. And I know people in Yahoo Headhags also like to use that too in their matchups. You know, if you can get a guy with reliever eligibility, that gets you a start or can

get you those extra counting stats and those matchups, it can be huge. So I don't want to overvalue them, but you can't ignore them either. Yeah. Specifically in the CBS format, Head to Head Points League, here are the top names that have starting pitchers as relief pitchers in 2024. Cole Reagan's, Michael King, who. who's now with the Padres, Nick Povetta, Ryan Pepio, who's now in Tampa Bay,

Chris Paddock, Nick Martinez, and Frankie Montas. I think those are the most notable names up top, if you're looking for Sparps. And I think something else that's kind of interesting too, because people have asked me about this in the past. If you play on Yahoo in a daily lineup, Head-Ted categories leagues, some people like to get relief pitchers

that have starting pitcher eligibility, because that adds another factor as well. So it'll be, I don't know, just throwing out like Robert Stevenson, if he just randomly had like starting pitcher eligibility, you can throw him in there in a Yahoo Daily Categories League and, you know, he can get you reliever stats too. So just kind of trying to find different ways to fill out your lineup. And as we get closer and more rankings list come out, I'll be able to go through Yahoo and find out which names have that eligibility. And again, once we do like our relief pitcher position preview,

I'll bring all those names to light. But it's something that people have asked about before. I think it's something that if you play in that format should be on your mind as well. Lastly, I do want to ask you a little bit about saves plus holds because it has grown in popularity over the past couple of years. You mentioned that you guys put out an article and you give out targets for solds saves plus holds. Some people play in leagues where they just have a saves category. They just have a holds category. But it has grown in popularity over the past couple of years. Do you have any specific strategy or relievers that you target?

Because for me, it was always, I didn't mind playing saves plus. holds because it puts more emphasis just on the best relievers. You can just draft the guys that are the most talented relievers. You don't have to worry about saves. They're not as scarce because obviously the holds factor in there. You could just focus on talent, which I do like that aspect of it. And obviously on good teams. Obviously, they're going to win more games. So more opportunities for saves and holds. But any strategy when it comes to those formats? Yeah. Well, you hinted at a couple of them. I mean, you want teams that don't have starting pitchers that go super deep into games. So, you know, Tampa Bay is always a team like last year. You would think San Francisco would have

been better for them last year, but they weren't. It was kind of a weird, they ran a different, they were at odd rotation. They weren't as bountiful as you would have thought they would have been for them with the Rogers Twins and Duval. But yeah, you want teams that are good and teams that play close game. That's the hard part is like you can't predict which teams are going to be because year to year like I can cite the Astros and usually they're pretty good and there's there was two years ago they had they were very scarce with save situations because they're blowing teams out and then last year saves are piling up for Ryan Presley. So on a year to year basis it's hard to predict all of those but in season you can kind of see those trends and zig pretty quick. But yeah,

you're usually targeting teams that are winning 80 they're projected to win 85 games or more You want to get the guys in those bullpen because they're going to be racking up the most holds in those situations. And the biggest key is if you get a team that has a very stable leverage layer, it's X in the 7th, Y in the 8th, and Z in the 9th, then you can get X and Y and still rack up the soles or the holds in a separate category as they go. And, you know, as you say that, you know, the last couple of years on the athletic, I do a weekly saves rankings, which, you know, I'm not a big fan of rankings. However, but we also do a separate column for a separate sheet for the solds.

And people say that they use those all the time. That's like, I'll be in there updating them at 7 in the morning. And there's already people like logged in because they bookmarked it from the week before. Because I update the same sheet over and over. I'm just like, these people are crazy. But, you know, if you're in an ultra-competitive league and you want to get the jump on the next guy that's going to be getting the seventh inning for a very good team, then that's a key thing to know when those situations are like that. All right, well, let's get into the top 10 from this past season, and this is based on the CBS 5x5 roto algorithm.

You might look somewhere else, maybe Razball, player, raider. Things are moved around a little bit differently, but if you play in a roto or a Categories league on CBS, these are the top 10 relievers from this past season. Worth mentioning, first and foremost, Felix Bautista was the top reliever in fantasy this year, but we'll miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. So we move one down further.

And outside of him, the number one reliever was Devin Williams, who had a masterful year, 153 ERA, 0.92 whip, 36 saves were tied for fifth most in baseball. Eight wins definitely helped that Roto ranking as well. A few things that I did want to point out that could potentially be worrisome. I noticed the fastball velocity has dipped down a little over one miles per hour of the past two seasons. Clearly it hasn't affected his stuff.

He's still amazing. But I think whenever we see these VLO drops, it's worth mentioning. And, you know, we've heard for years now that he could maybe be traded, You know, the brewers were still kind of up in the air on like what their situation looks like in 2024. Do they trade Corbyn Burns? If they do that, maybe they traded away at Devin Williams. So these are things that are kind of in the back of my mind. But your thoughts on Devin Williams' 2023.

His 2023 was fantastic. I'm thankful that we were a little bit higher on them than other sites. I think we believed in them. You know, the airbender, thankfully the changeup makes up for the VLO loss that you're referencing. you know, there was a couple of times. He was a little bit more hittable this year, if that makes any sense. But, you know, there's a couple of games you watch them where he gave up a home run or things that nature.

But that's going to happen. But from all the other, now, as you were referencing, he's entering the same arbitration window where they traded Josh Hader. So they may not do it initially, but there is definitely a chance if they trade burns before the season starts or if they're at the trade deadline and more. is not going to be vying for a postseason spot. They pretty much have to sell or trade burns. And if they trade burns, then they're likely going to turn around and trade Williams.

I mean, they have people in that bullpen that they could elevate their roles. They kind of got a nice pecking order built up behind them. So, you know, this would be it. You know, you don't want to, I've set on different places that if I was Texas, I don't know if I would overpay for Hater, I would rather trade for Williams. I'd be calling Milwaukee every day until they finally get sick of hearing from me and do a deal because, well, the Rangers have, they match up pretty well on prospect capital versus what they would need to get back for Williams. Then you can sign them to a long-term deal and then you're not worrying about overpaying for Hater. But that's another story for another day.

But yeah, there's a very good chance he gets traded. but the good thing is he should be the closer where he ends up, but there's a chance that the team just gets them and they want to use them in the eighth inning. Yeah, so there is, I guess, a slight risk because of that, but the early ADP, people don't seem to be worried because the ADP is 38.4 for Devin Williams, the top reliever being drafted in fantasy right now.

The number two reliever this past season was Alexis Diaz's first full year as the closer. Was a success, 307 ERA, 119 whip, 37 saves, the fourth most in baseball. Nine wins as a reliever, tied for third most among qualified relievers. Again, definitely helps out that final ranking here at the end of the season. Control has been an issue the first two seasons. I think you could say that for a lot of relievers. They throw hard, sometimes maybe a little bit erratic.

I noticed in the second half, he took a pretty big step back as well. 461 ERA, 5.6 walks per nine. The K-minus walk rate was a disaster. They were using him a lot. So how much does that worry you about Alexis Diaz heading into 2024? He's currently the ninth reliever off the board. What I'm worried about is, you know, Cincinnati, the only person he added to the bullpen was Emilio Pan. So I don't, you know, Fernando Cruz showed some good swing and miss stuff.

But, you know, he's like either he mows down the side in order or he gives up four runs. There's like no in between. That guy's pretty volatile. But there is upside, although he's 32 years old. So I don't, we don't know if a guy is going to be able to. repeat that sort of a season. I really think the uses patterns that you that you hinted at really wore him down. He looked very tired. And when they were fighting for a playoff spot, they were just putting them out there almost every day. And one of the stats I like the references was that you

talked about his final ERA. Through his first 66 outings, he had a 2.10 ERA. And then his last, from September 15th on, he just got obliterated in a couple of outings. And that just totally, and inflated his ERA by almost to run that last stretch of the season. But again, he was running on fumes. So I would hope that they give him a little bit more rest. Maybe having someone like Begon around will help him understand a little bit better about pacing and not throwing, you know, using too much energy in the first half and saving some for the second. And we forget that in his breakout season, he had a little bit of time off.

And that's why he finished the season so strong. So I just don't know if we just need. to manage his workload better or if it is a matter of the command issues that you're referencing. I like him. I just don't know where he's currently going in ADP. I might prefer to be elsewhere just because of the ratio risk that you were hinting at. All right. Let's take our first break. But first, a quick programming note that heads up starting next week. We will be releasing three podcasts per week. And then that will jump to four per week in February, five per week in March, so on and so forth. I'm very excited to.

to have Pitching Extraordinaire Lance Brozdowski joining us on next Tuesday's podcast. So make sure to check that one out. Again, three podcasts per week starting next week. Let's take our first break, and when we return, we'll continue recapping the relief pitchers here on Fantasy Baseball today.

Welcome back in. Let's continue on recapping relief pitchers from this past season. The number three reliever was Camillo Deval from the Giants. 293 ERA 114 whip. 39 saves tied for second most in all of the league.

Vilo remains top-notch. We're talking elite. I myself was nervous about Camillo DeVall entering last season, had some control issues in the past, and Gabe Kapler, I always kind of worry about Gabe Kapler. But to your credit, Craig,

I remember last year you were not worried about it. You were a fan of Camilo DeVal. And now he's the fifth reliever off the board. And I think he has earned that. I pretty much trust in him at this point. Yeah, and he also had a rough patch where he stopped throwing his slider. It was really weird,

which is like his, best swing and miss pitch. I don't know. There was something going on with him in Kapler. It was hard to explain, but he had been blue four saves in a row, but he still was able to save 39 games last year. So yeah, overall, I'll take the win on it. He was my preseason like number four. And our friend Lucas Beery said he had a lot of DeValle because of what I was saying on recon. So I appreciate that. I'm happy it helps out those that support us. I would like to see that slider be more consistent, but he's a guy that I think people remember the second half more than they should.

So, you know, he could end up being at a pretty nice price point, depending on where he finishes up as we get towards the early March and see where that really settles in. Yep. All right. The number four reliever was David Bednar from the Pirates. Awesome. Breakout season, a two ERA on the nose.

39 saves, again, tied for second most. You know, how much of that do we trust year over year? It's so hard to predict because the Pirates, they got off to a great star last year. Obviously, they fizzled in the second half. You have to assume they're probably going to be a little bit better again this year. They'll continue to improve. But, you know, how many close games will they have? It's just so hard to tell year over year.

The one thing we know, David Bednar is awesome. He's really, really good. And we've, like Devin Williams, we've kind of heard some rumors, some whispers here. The Pirates are going to trade David Bednar? He's under team control through 2027. I mean, they could look to do that and ask for a ton in return, or they could just continue to have one of the best closers in the game. how much of that trade risk.

I don't even know if it's risk, but how much does that worry you when it comes to David Bednar? It doesn't worry me too much. I just, I truly don't understand this front office why, A, he's from Pittsburgh. I mean, he comes out to the Steelers entrance song, the renegade.

So I mean, why wouldn't you offer this guy, you know he would give them a hometown discount? I still don't understand why they just don't offer him like a three or four year deal and then remove all. of the specter of these trade talks, but it's the pirate. So it's kind of up to them. But that would be something I would really appreciate.

I don't know. You know, a six one way half a dozen the other, they could trade them. I said two years ago they wouldn't. So luckily I got lucky there. And last year I said they wouldn't. This year, I don't know. I truly don't know what the direction this team is going to take. Maybe some of that depends on the arrival time of skeins and however the other stuff

goes. But if they're doing well in building, you would think they'd want to finish strong in the second half and use him as a building block moving forward. I don't know. It's a coin flip right now. Yeah, eighth reliever off the board for David Bednar. And I think if we had that assurance, if he had that contract extension, he probably would be going even higher, maybe even like a top five or six reliever, but maybe just that sliver

of doubt that some people have. When he's on the field, he's amazing. But again, there is that slight risk and doubt that David Bednar could be traded. The number five reliever this past season might surprise some people. Tanner Scott of the Marlins, 231, ERA. a 0.99 whip. He had 12 saves, nine wins, 104 strikeouts were third most among relievers.

He took over in the second half as the Marlins closer. And as I mentioned up at the top, Skip Schumacher comes in for the Marlins does a great job, and he basically just relied on one guy. It was A.J. Puck earlier on in the season, you know, he started to fade and then they went to Tanner Scott. The biggest key with him, as I'm sure you know, Greg, is the control. It improved dramatically.

We're talking the first six, years of his career, 5.8 walks per nine. This past season, 2.8. How much can we trust that is the question with Tanner Scott? You would think there's going to be a little migration to the mean, but man, from August 1st on, he had a 33 to 3 K to BB. I mean, that number just jumps off the page. I mean, I know we've let people sucker us in before. He's another guy too. You know, we want to talk about a trade risk. I mean, he will be a free agent at the end of at the end of the season. So. depending on how the Marlins are doing, he could be somebody that's moved at the trade deadline. But if you can get 20-ish saves before they move him and his role might change, I still think that would be a win from a fantasy standpoint, especially, you know, as you reference with the strikeouts, he led NL relievers and strikeouts and was third overall. So, I mean, I think five relievers last year had 100 plus strikeouts and he was one of them.

And those don't just, they don't fall out of trees anymore. It's not commonplace. He is the 17th reliever off the board in early ADP. Does that sound like a fair price tag for you on Tanner Scott? Yeah, you know, especially if you, you know, we talked about the, you know, our strategy for closers, but I mean, like when you're cobbling together, if you take like a manual clause A because you think you're getting a stable, save person, and now you can get Scott for strikeout upside, they're like a nice little package deal because you kind of get the best

of both worlds with two closers when you combine them together. You know, so now I'm getting towards my, even if Scott gets 20 saves, I'm getting towards that 65 threshold that we talked about. And Scott's strikeouts pick up for where clauses don't, you know what I mean? So how you mix and match those two closers really can depend on how you do things. Or if you take a guy with better strikeouts and then you add Scott to him, that can help you if you take like a George Kirby as your second starting pitcher who doesn't get the amount of strikeouts that else.

other number two's might. So how you build your team really factors in all these things. All right. The number six reliever was Craig Kimbrel this past year. He was on the Phillies, now signed with the Baltimore Orioles. Getting up there in age turns 36 in May, but still had a fine season. 23 saves, eight wins with the Phillies. Pretty shaky in the postseason.

I know let a lot of Phillies fans down, unfortunately. But the ADP, since he signed with the Orioles on December 6th, 119.8, as the 18th. relief pitcher off the board. And I swear I'm not just saying this to give myself a pat on the back. But the day he signed, I'm like, he's moving up inside the top 150. There's no doubt in my mind. Because he's going to be the closer for the Orioles. How confident are you with Craig Campbell, excuse me, in Baltimore? We were in lockstep about that because when I wrote about that on recon, I said you can already look at where his men pick is and you just move it up into that range.

You know, the funny thing is, is we want to poo-poo on Kimball, but he was one of two relievers last year with 20 or more saves and 90 or more strikeouts, him and Felix. Wow. So, you know, he's not perfect, and I think you're going to need make sure that you have a portfolio that's not risky with ratios. But, you know, if he gives me a 1.15 whip and he gets me 25 saves with the Orioles, I'm going to be happy. Now, the Orioles do have a very deep and fluid bullpen.

So his struggles last year were mostly against left-handed hitters. So, I mean, they've got three lefties in that bullpen right now, depending on what they do with D.L. Hall that can all help them. So, like, if the lefties are up in the eighth inning, they can use those guys to mitigate him and save Kimbril and kind of smooth out his matchups. And I think that bullpen's also deep enough where, you know, Kimbril showed, I think, you know, he's 36. Of course he's going to get tired during the postseason. And I think the Orioles can do a little better job of managing his workload.

I don't think their bullpen was as thin as the Phillies was near the end of the year. You know, again, with the injuries the Phillies had and the other stuff, I think it was just a little bit of erosion with his age. So, you know, he's not perfect. But for what Baltimore needs is a one-year fill-in to get back to the mountain, I think that was a savvy signing. He just feels like, for me, he's the typical RP2 that I like to target. Typically, I like to get someone in like the 5 to 10 range, one of the Bednar's, maybe Alexis Diaz, maybe even like a Ryan Presley.

I know he goes a little bit outside the top 10 and then come back a little bit later on and get like Craig Kimbril as my two. He just feels like that prototypical second closer and fantasy in a Categories League. The next two, I'm going to throw two names your way here because I do want to get to some news and notes and some other things with bullpens. But seven and eight, actually pretty polarizing, I guess you could say. Number seven was Emmanuel Class A with the Guardians. Number eight was Josh Hader, who is currently a free agent. Class A led the league in saves. 44 saves.

Also led the league in blown saves with 12 blown saves this past season. The strikeouts, the swinging strikes, they plummeted this past season. The swinging strike rate on his slider went down a lot. The velocity dropped a little bit on that slider about one mile per hour. And we have heard some whispers, you know, Emmanuel Class A's name being kind of thrown out there. and some trade rumors. So look, I still think he's one of the most reliable guys,

but it was kind of a weird season for Emmanuel Class A. And then Josh Hater bounced back tremendously, right? He had an ERA over 5 in 2022. This year, a 128 ERA, 33 saves. We're waiting to find out where Josh Hater is going to sign. My guess is that he will be the closer no matter where he goes, the Dodgers, the Rangers, whoever else wants to get in the mix. Give me your thoughts here on what the heck went wrong with the manual Class A?

and I say that he led the league in saves. And I don't know, maybe some predictions on where Josh Hader could wind up. Well, Clazé, the cutter Velo is down slightly. So I think that's something we want to watch. You know, at the beginning of the year, oh, it was cold weather, and we thought it would take him a little time to build up. But it never reached, he didn't average triple digits for the first time. Now, again, he's only entering his age 26 seasons.

So it's, you know, I'm not going to downplay the guy. You know, I just don't think that, I think, we we kind of hope at the second half of 2021 he like the slider was like really really dancing he was getting a lot of swings and missiles I was like hey if he throws more sliders you might see more strikeouts and then he's kind of plateaued I mean he's his his K percentage is his K percentage I don't think there's really room for growth there but you know Eno Saris rated his slider highly and his best pitches of the year column which I was a little bit surprised since as you as you cited his slider was not as effective last year. But, you know, this is almost like the thing where everyone kind of like,

you know, we moved, we pushed them too high last year and I think he might be a little bit too low this year. But, you know, you can buy the dip and, and hopefully you can pay off. The Hater rules will be interesting where he goes. I think the thing that surprised me the most was that he matched his career high in appearances with 61. You know, I think we, we feel like our closer should be a little bit more durable or maybe get, you know, you know, you. You know, you look at steamer projections, it's always, you know, 65 innings. You know, he's not a multi-inning pitcher anymore. There was a couple of times you refuse to go in when the Padreys are not in the playoffs,

and I think that rubbed a few people the wrong way. I mean, once he gets his contract, you would think he wouldn't be saying, I don't feel like pitching today, but I just think you have to weigh that in there. You know, he's not as bad as he was in 22, and he's probably not as great as he was last year. Just kind of plan for somewhere in the middle of those two seasons, and you'll be okay. but where he goes will definitely set the template for his safe floor. You know, everyone thought it was going to be Texas. There's been whispers about L.A.

And there's originally people were saying no about the Phillies, but suddenly it seems like since they got spurned by Yamamoto, that the Phillies are kind of back in thinking they can shorten games with their bullpen. And then if they have a stable force at the back end like Hater, they can use Alvarado wherever they want. So the Phillies are my dark horse in this scenario. I think the team to watch too is the Cubs because obviously has some familiarity with Craig counsel as well. And look, Aouselai did a great job. And I think he could probably be fine as they're closer to open the year.

But man, if you can have Aouselai as your eighth inning guy and Hader as your closer, why not? Right. And, you know, the Cubs haven't really made a splash yet this off season. I think that is a direction they could go as well. Yeah, that's a good call. Yeah. And you know he's got ties with counsel. So he'd be comfortable going there. When he first got traded, there was a lot of personal issues going on when he went out to San Diego. And I think that really skews his numbers from that season. And I was on record with the athletic saying, you know, don't worry about this. It's just a blip.

Quick follow up. Who would you draft first right now? If you're on the board, you need to close her. You're going Josh Hater or Emmanuel Class A? Probably Hater, just because I want the strikeouts. Yeah. Fair enough. All right.

Number nine and ten from this past season, Jordan Romano with the Blue Jays and Ryssel Eglacius of the Braves. Romano, 36 saves. Was on the IL for 17 days due to lower back inflammation, but velocity and pitch mix was fine. Really kind of seems like he settled in as a pretty safe, you know, top 10, top 12-ish closer at this point. And, uh, Ryssel Iglesias, solid season with the Braves,

275 ERA, whip a little bit elevated, 119, but he had 33 saves, K-minus walk rate still good, swinging strike rate 11th best among qualified relievers. The only thing that is, worries me a little bit about Ryssela Eglacius. The Braves bullpen is really, really good. So there are many different options there. And I guess if he falters, they could go in a different direction.

But any quick thoughts here on Romano and Rysel Iglesias? Not too much. You know, the Braves are one of the most stable bullpen places around. I mean, they let Kenley Jansen stay in that role for too long. They let Will Smith. I mean, I understand your worries. My worries with Rizel is that there's a lot. any flare up with that shoulder. But, you know, for him, if he stays healthy for a full season,

that can be the first time he gets 40 saves in his career. I mean, that's, you know, we all know how good Atlanta is. It's just a matter of him being available. If he's available all season, I think he can finally break that threshold. And again, it's, he's, he's kind of undervalued in early ADP. So it just kind of depends. But again, if I have Rizel, I don't want my second closer to be a risky one. I want to think. be somebody that I can rely on for 25 saves. All right. Well, I guess, you know, I'm thinking about it now. I did a draft champions out at first pitch, Arizona. Mind you, this is the first week of November. I didn't have any rankings done or anything. Everyone's kind of flying blind at that point.

And I got Iglesias, I think, in the sixth round of a 15-team league is my first closer, which is fine. But now hearing you say that, my second closer wound up being Kyle Finnegan. So I'm like, probably not the best combination of relievers there, but he still got like half the draft to go, so maybe I can snag a few relievers later on as well. Let's quickly hit some news and notes before we make some predictions on each bullpen. And we got some catcher news.

The Mariners signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24 million deal, and not sure he'll actually play much catcher, but he has catcher eligibility for fantasy. Obviously, the Mariners have Cal Raleigh and Sebi Savala as their catcher tandem there as well. But I think an everyday DH role maybe kind of mixes in as like,

you know, a second or third catcher on the Mariners here, there. Playing D.H should actually help his value. I think he'll get more played appearances than the average catcher. Garver, the problem is health. I mean, it's not a matter of like how good he is. When he's on the field, he's really good.

I mean, he hit 270, 19 homers in just 87 games this year. He has a career 825 OPS, 123 WRC, WRC Plus. He just has not played more than 87 games since 2019. So I like the skill set. It's just, can he stay on the field? Greg, what are your thoughts on Mitch Garver to the Mariners?

Yeah, I agree with you. And it was weird. When I was looking up his numbers, he only hits like 217 when he's the DH. It's like he hits higher when he's a catcher. So, you know, some guys, that's just, you know, as he gets used to it, hopefully he'll acclimate to that role.

And he can, and of course, they've got Edgar Martinez up there. you can come in spring training and kind of talk him through some of that stuff, how to stay prepared. Yeah, you know, from where he's going, and anytime you can get a catcher, a catcher eligible player that's not going to be catching for the most part, then you're thinking you're doing well. So I'm not sure how much this will drive up his ADP just because of all of the risk issues. But, you know, in that range where you were talking about in our show notes about where he's going to go, I mean, he's a pretty alluring option, especially if you're waiting at catcher, which a lot of people like to do.

Yeah, the early ADP for Mitch Garver is 203.6, 17th catcher off the board. I think he'll climb up a little bit. We usually see once players sign, they kind of get a little bit of a boost. And I was looking at like the 170-ish range where you see names like Bo Nailer, Jonah Heim, Logan O'Hoppy, Caber-O-Ewees. Do you think Mitch Garver deserves to be in that range or maybe even ahead of some of those names? No, I think that's a pretty fair place to get them. And again, now it's build thing. You know, if I'm looking to get, I do like O'Hopi.

So that would be a tough choice between the two of them. But that's not a bad thing. Like if those two are in my queue and one of them goes, I can have the other as a fallback option. That's not a bad place to probably grab your first catcher in that little pocket you were referencing. And I think they could have similar skill sets too, Logan O'Hopi and Mitch Garver, middling batting average, maybe like a $2.50 kind of guy

and really good power from both of those as well. The White Sox signed Martine Maldonado to a one-year deal, which doesn't really matter for fantasy, but it'll be interesting to see how their catcher situation works out. They also traded for Max Stasi. They traded for Corey Lee during the season. So they do have some options here. I guess we'll find out which of those two winds up

on the active roster here on opening day. But again, Martineo Donato to the White Sox. The Blue Jays have made some moves. They signed Kevin Kiermeier to a week. one-year deal worth approximately $10 million, slated to be the starting center fielder, once again, for them. And they also signed Isaiah Kinear-F-Fleffa to a $15 million deal.

My guess is ICF Super Utility Roll, something like that. They have Davis Schneider at second base for now, Kevin Bizio at third base. So not really anyone that's either proven or has been great the past couple years, so maybe IKF works in a little bit. My guess, Greg, is that the Blue Jays are probably, probably not done this offseason.

They've got another move up their sleeve here. Yeah, their fan base were pretty upset if this was it. Yeah, for sure. The Guardians acquired outfielder Esteban Florial from the Yankees in exchange for Cody Morris, so a swap of former top-ish prospects. I don't know that either of them was really a top prospect, but they were prospects.

So maybe it could work out for either one. Again, Florial to the Guardians, Cody Morris, to the Yankees, and the latest on the rumor mill, the Dodgers, who have signed or traded for everybody this offseason, are interested in Teasca Hernandez. So could potentially be their corner outfielder because we know he's not going to DH to have Shohei Otani.

But if Teasca wound up with the Dodgers, that would be a pretty big boon to his value. So we'll see if that actually winds up happening. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll way too early predictions on each team's opening day closer. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in.

Let's make some way too early predictions on each team's closer on opening day. this Greg, I mean the ones that are obvious, I don't think we have to spend too much time on, the ones that are completely up in the air, all right, we can have a little conversation about it. We'll start in the National League and we're going in alphabetical order in terms of the city that they play in. So we will start with the Arizona Diamondbacks and very obviously Paul Seewald, right? Nothing else to add there really?

No, other than, you know, he's also on an expiring contract, so you might just want to handcuff him with Kevin Ginkle depending on the format of your league. All right. We already spoke about Ryssela Iglesias. The Cubs, as of now, it's Adbert Aalai, right? As long as he's healthy, which has always been his issue. Yeah. If he's not healthy, who would be your guests next man up in Chicago?

It should be Meriwether, but they didn't use him like that. When Alzale was on the IL, that was such a confusing. I think that's part of the demise of Davis and why he's not back as manager. For the Reds, we know it is going to be Alexis D.S. they did sign Emilio Pagan this off season, but very clearly Diaz just came off a great season. For the Rockies, question marks. Not really sure it matters.

I don't think they're going to be very good. And obviously, closes in Colorado. Doesn't usually work out very well. But my guess is the top two options, Tyler Kinley and Justin Lawrence. Correct. I leaned slightly towards Kinling just because they like to use Lawrence as the highest leverage guy.

And he can also do multiple endings, which Kinley cannot. But, you know, Kinley did have five. September. So I guess that's, we're playing a recency bias game. I just don't know if they're going to go out and do a free agent sign like they did last year when they got Pierce Johnson. You know, they kind of came in at the last minute and just got an upside guy. All right. The Dodgers, I think for now it's Evan Phillips. Do they sign somebody? Do they trade someone? You agree on Phillips? It's Phillips unless they sign Hater or trade for Claise.

Yep. Then for the Marlins, Tanner Scott, right? Yeah. You know, Bender will be coming back, he's coming back from surgery and we don't know how his command's going to be, but they should use Scott as much as possible unless they're, you know, to build up this trade thing if they're, they're going to move him at the deadline. For the Brewers, it's Devin Williams. If they trade Devin Williams, who would be the next man up? I think we differ here because I think it's going to be your rebate. And I know you like Joel Pioops, but that's another story for another day.

Yeah, or in about like 10 minutes from now when we give out some very late round targets. Look, you're the guy to know. So, like, if anyone would know, it would be you. And I've heard very good things about Aribay as well. But obviously, you know, Pai-Hamps has looked really good as well. Would he get the role? I don't know. Wait and see.

For the Mets, Edwin Diaz is returning from that knee injury from last season, but very clearly will be their closer. For the Phillies, assuming they don't sign Josh Hater, this one feels kind of open. Maybe. I don't know. Maybe you just trust Jose Alvarado, but I know Jeff Hoffman did some good things. Dominguez has some experience.

and Orion Kirkering came up from the miners. He has that nasty sweeper that he throws, and he has closer experience in the minor. So I kind of feel like maybe they're grooming him long term to wind up being the closer there. I think they are grooming him. Again, if Hader doesn't sign here, I think you're going to be stuck with the Rob Thompson floating closer,

which is the coin or the phrase he used to pen his, you know, what he was going to do it last year. And it was Alvarie. for a little bit, but then he got hurt, and then it was Kimbril. And then when Alvarado came back, he worked more as the highest leverage guy. Hoffman kind of came out of nowhere and became a leverage option. I think early in the season, they'll bounce back and forth between Alvarado and Hoffman until they feel like Kirkering's ready to go.

All right. It's good for me because I drafted him in one of my gladiators. So let's go. Also, awesome name, right? Orion Kirkering. I mean, that's just, come on. Yeah. And of course, me, you know, when they showed.

the video of his dad crying when he first went in there. That just, you know, that tugs at the harsh thing. So, yeah, for the kid. Yeah, for sure. The pirates, David Bednar, no surprise there. For the Padres, no more Josh Hader. They signed Yuki Matsui this offseason who has like 239 career saves in Japan. And they also have Robert Suarez.

You know, it's kind of interesting because, you know, Swares, righty throws hard. Yuki Matsui, lefty, smaller guy, doesn't throw very hard. But he has all this closing experience. and they just gave him, you know, a decent size contract. So what do you think? The Padres one is pretty interesting. If Schwarz is healthy, he'll start the year as the closer, how he performs, you know, is it big time Bobby from the playoffs or is it the Schwarz we saw last year that was a little bit too prone to giving up home runs?

You know, hopefully if he's at full health and he has a full spring and he's working okay, he should open in the role and we'll have to see how Matsui there's always an adjustment period for these guys coming over and if you remember when Suarez's first got here from Japan it took him like a month and a half to really adjust to the major league and there's a difference in the size of the baseball and we hear this you know I jokingly was saying in the group chat about Matsui I'm like yeah they're talking about he's 5-8 and his hand size

and one of the guys is like what is this the combines I'm like well it's it's a thing though because the the MLB baseball is bigger than heavier. So, you know, I think there might be a little bit of a growth curve for him. But, you know, maybe by June he's working his way into a shared safe pathway, especially if Schwarz is struggling. All right. For the Giants, it is Camillo.

Go ahead. I said there's not a lot of upside right now in that bullpen, so I don't know. Yeah. For the Giants, it's Camillo DeValle. For the Cardinals, we know Ryan Helsley started the year as the closer, got hurt, missed a ton of time, ended the year as the closer. Giovanni Gallegos still on that team? What's your feel for the Cardinals?

It should be Halsley. It's very weird. In the first half of the last two years, Gallegos has more saves than Halsley, but in the second half, it's not even close. I don't know if that's something with Marmel, the team. I don't know. It should be Halsley.

And I do like the keep an eye on that Riley O'Brien kid there. They had the video from Drive Line, and he was the closer in the P.E. for the Mariners to kind of pick them up in a, you know, under the radar acquisition. That's just, you know, in case something happens with Hellsley, that's somebody to keep tucked away in the deeper formats. All right. For the Nationals, we have Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey still in that bullpen.

Finnegan for the ups and downs, the way he started the year, still finished the season with 28 saves. Do you think he begins the year as the Nationals Closer? That's what the team's saying. And this, you know, at some point you think they have to trade him or Harvey. They've got to do something during that rebuild, and that's a good way to do it. So I think they let Finnegan start in a roll, and then they might flip them mid-season and then put Harvey back in there if he's healthy. But, you know, Harvey has the stuff, Kent, because he has the health DNA to be able to make 60 appearances.

That's what we want to know. All right, let's slide over to the American League for the Baltimore Orioles. They signed Craig Kimberl. He will be their closure. The Red Sox, we have Kenley Jansen. The White Sox, kind of like the Rockies of the AL. It's a mess. Does it even matter?

I don't know. Gregory Santos is hurt. Not sure he'll be ready for spring training. They have Garrett Crochet, who a couple years ago looked like, all right, maybe he could be the closer of the future. He's got some pretty nasty stuff. What do you think about the White Sox? I think you and I'll let other people get the gray hair.

But, yeah, you know, it's not a warm, fuzzy when they're saying Santos may or may not be ready for opening day. It's like, well, what does that mean? We don't know. Yeah, Crochet, if his velocity's up in spring, I could be interested. but yeah, the White Sox might be another tire fire this year. I don't know that I want to be there. They did have a guy in the NFL, Jordan Leisure, who did pretty well.

They picked him up in a trade during the season. So that would be a name in like keeper leagues to kind of keep tabs on and see how he does in in spring. And if he breaks camp with the team or gets an early call up. All right. For the Guardians, we know it's a manual class A. If he gets traded, Greg, who do you think would step in for the Guardians? Well, they said they got Barlow for high-lever situation.

So I think Barlow is the backup plan. if they decide to trade clause. And obviously does have some closing experience in Scott Barlow. So I think that's a name to watch there. For the Tigers, Alex Lang, you know, kind of some hiccups last year. The control, we know, could be very off and on. It's very spotty for him. Jason Foley, I think it'll find backup, but doesn't get too many whiffs.

Alex Lang to start the year? I don't know. So hopefully after this, you'll go check out the projections thing that I posted on Reliever Recon. But there's a sleeper here, and it's coming from the team president. And when they signed Shelby Miller, they said, you know, we got him because he could do multiple innings. We also think he has stuff for high leverage situations.

And in his contract, there were clauses for games finished. So I would think Miller went there because the team kind of hinted to him that there's a chance he could be closing games. So I think Miller is somebody that we want to track, especially if that split finger fastball he brought in last year really sticks. And we know the Dodgers helped guys add their arsenal and enhance. So this could be a situation where he picked up something from L.A. and takes it there and parlays it into a larger leverage role that he would never have gotten in in Los Angeles.

All right for the Astros. My guess is Ryan Presley to start. He's been pretty solid the past couple of years. But people seem very excited about Brian Abraeu. I know he has great stuff. But I think as long as Presley is kind of doing his thing, I don't know that it's going to happen for Abraeu. Yeah, but on the flip side of that, if you're taking Presley, especially in a draft champions, then I really think you just want to have Abreu his insurance.

You don't want to risk not having him there if that's part of your build. Fair enough. That's just me. I just, you know, again, he was one of the five that had 100 plus strikeouts last year. Yeah, no, there's no doubt. He's got nasty stuff. It's a good hand cup. As you mentioned, Brian Abraeu there with Ryan Presley.

for the Royals, the 2024 World Series champion Royals, because they signed Will Smith this offseason. They also brought in Nick Anderson, James MacArthur, pretty good finish of the season, kind of ended in the role. What do you think about the Royals on opening day? What I think is you're going to have to have a little patience because I think MacArthur is going to be like this year's Alesa Lai, where he doesn't start with a defined role. and then he proves to the team that he is the best pitcher in that situation, and then they finally figure it out by like June or July and then let him go with it. So I think they brought in the veterans just to make sure it's like, you know,

MacArthur's K to B, B, was ridiculous in September. I think it was 19 strikeouts at one point to no walks, and he got a couple of saves near the end there. Not to mention, one of his saves is going through the heart of the Astros order. It wasn't like he was getting saves against East Podunk. He was matching up with tough competitions. So, but, you know, I think they want him to earn it. And I think they brought in those guys, A, to help him understand how to be a major league reliever because he used to be a starting pitcher.

So, again, you can take MacArthur, but again, patience because this is going to be one of those things where, like, you drop them in May because you're pissed. And all of a sudden, he's getting saved in June. You're like, why did I drop him? Because, you know, I think a lot of people did that with Alzalai last year. For the Angels, Carlos Estevez, I think he got to the 30 save mark. but finish pretty rough. And they drafted Ben Joyce a couple of years ago. He throws extremely hard.

Do you think it's Estevez's role to start? And then they kind of see how it goes. What are your thoughts on the Angels? As they're currently constructed, they'll probably let him open in it just because of the money. I get the thing with Joyce because he's got the gifts and he throws 100. He wants to throw 105 miles an hour. But as a professional, he's yet to appear on back-to-back days.

As a professional, so I'm talking AA all the way up. He is not pitched on consecutive days yet. So that's my concern. It's like, how can I say this person is going to be a closer if he always needs a day or two days in between? To me, the arm to watch theirs, I don't know, again, all of these guys are like the same flaw. They throw hard, but their commands all over the place. Jose Sorgonos an arm I'm watching there too. I really want to see how he does in spring.

He had a very good September, and he kind of did the Deval Path where he's throwing. his sinker more than his four seam now, and that pairs well with his curveball. So if what he did in September 6, which was 11 to 1 K to B, B, maybe, maybe he could challenge Estevez early on. All right. Let's go to the Twins. Yohan Duran, there was some concern last year. Rocco Baldelli at times hasn't just leaned on that one closer, but he did last year.

I think we assumed the same in 2024. Yeah. And I put in the FtN draft guide, the Dick S column that I did, that if anybody take the Felix Batista pathway towards a breakout year. Duron's 2023 underlying numbers are very similar to Batista's in 2022. So, you know, I know we kind of see him in this way, but he only had one multiple inning outing in the second half last year. They really moved him into a leverage set role as opposed to the HLR.

All right, for the Yankees. My guess is Clay Holmes to start. They have been linked to Jordan Hicks, Robert Stevenson. some whispers of a Josh hater there, but do you think the Yankees go out and make a move? I think they have to. So,

and we spoke off air about this. If they sign Hicks, they kind of see him being a multiple inning option, so he would kind of be more towards the Michael King role that's vacated. You know, King started the year as the four, five out guy, and he grabbed a couple of vulture wins

and did stuff, and then they kind of stretched them out. I think they see Hickson that same light. I don't think they would bring Hicks in to be the closer. Now, if they went and added Robert Stevenson, Clay Holmes is in the last year of his arbitration window. So, you know, he's a free agent at the end of the season. So the Yankees, if they sign someone like that, then it might be, hey, we're looking at Stevenson that take over the ninth and do this going forward. And they can use homes in those high leverage situations, especially when they need ground balls in those big moments.

So it really depends on who the Yankee. Yankee sign and how they structure that bullpen. Homes has been solid. I just don't know if he has the swing and miss stuff that we want from our top end closers. All right for the Oakland A's. It sounds like they're going to give Mason Miller a shot, we think, right? Yeah, I got pan for that out at first pitch Arizona because I hinted that a beat writer was saying that. And now that it's coming to more the light. So can he do what Duron did his rookie year? I don't know. So it really It depends. It's like, will the A's use them strictly as a closer or will they use them sometimes to get five outs at the end of the game and then give them a couple of days off? So we don't know. But, you know, as much as we poo-poo the A's, I mean, Trevor may have 15 saves in the second half. So I mean, they do generate some. It's just a matter of, especially at home. So their home ballpark kind of helps. So I'm okay getting Mason Miller. If he was like my third closer as an upside play, I don't mind that. So we'll have to see all that plays out. Trevor got. could be the backup to them.

And they are also whispers about Erseg, but we don't know how that's all going to play out. All right for the Mariners. I think we assume it'll be Andrus Munoz. They do have some other interesting names in their bullpen. Matt Brash. I know prelander, Baroa is a prospect that people are pretty excited about as well.

What are your thoughts on the Mariners? Yeah, it's all about health of Munoz. You know, he missed time last year. So can, you know, can he, can he put in 65 innings? You know, there was a lot of injuries. issues early in his career and then he had that 2020 you 22 just massive breakout season last year he kind of regressed to the mean so will the will the real munoz stand up and what can we what can we count on him from moving forward that he's another one that's all

about the slider what's that slider look like in the spring because he his second half was not terrific all right for the raise it will be pete fairbanks for the rangers for now it's hose leclerc but again they've basically everybody predicted josh hater to sign with the Rangers this off season. They could trade for a Devin Williams. I think that's possible. So Jose LeClerc, if you're doing early drafts, I'll just say be very careful with him.

And then for the Blue Jays, Jordan Romano. Let's wrap up with this, Greg. I, for those people drafting now, very early drafts, some late round dart throws. People are doing these draft champions in Gladiator leagues where there are no waiver pickups. So you kind of just need to hit on some of these dart throws. I'll throw three names out there

and then you could throw however many you want to. But Orion Kirkering, who we mentioned with the Phillies, Ben Joyce with the Angels, and Joel Pyeamps with the Milwaukee Brewers, who are some names that you like as Darth Rose? I'm going to come out of left field with one of them here. I, whether it's now or at the trade deadline, the Red Sox are going to trade Janssen

or probably going to trade Chris Martin. So I think Garrett Whitlock is going to get himself back into the ninth inning at some point with Ball. Austin. And I think there's a chance, depending on when they trade Jansen, that he gets double digits and more. So even in a gladiator, I think Whitlock's in play, especially as like your last pick as a third reliever with upside. And in draft champions, I think he's even more all along, because he's not really, he said he's going at about the same. His price point in the drafts is kind of all over the place, but I like where he's going. I'll go on the opposite end. I'll go

with the early one of Jeff Hoffman that's going to bridge to Ryan Kirkring. I think Hoffman at his price point, again, too. I had a little note here about Hoffman. I cheated for you here, but he was seventh in the National League and whip with 0.92. Ninth in strikeout percentage, 33.2. And his last 23 games, he had a 0.65 whip

with a 26 to 5K to BB. I mean, you know, it's a 20-inning sample, but it's still pretty good. And, you know, he's, you know, no one's free in a draft, but he's going at a point where it's not a high level of risk if you're taking him to get, even if you get 10 wins plus saves, you're getting value at a guy that you can match up in there and help you win the tough week matchups. I do like Baroa.

I think at some point he's going to factor in that Mariners bullpen. I'm glad you brought him up. He's somebody I hyped early on. I do like Adner Uribe in Milwaukee. And I think there'll be a few more surprises, but, you know, I, I, I talked about Soriano and a few other people that I'm kind of keeping an eye on in these bullpins where there's a big gaggle of a mess. So we're going to have to see who emerges in those spring games.

Yes, awesome stuff there again from Greg Jewett, the owner of Reliever Recon on Patreon. He writes for The Athletic, contributes to baseball at HQ. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at G. Jewett 9. That's G.J.E.W. T-T-9. Greg, thank you so much. Anything else you'd like to promote while you're here? Oh, just again, you know, you guys make sure you're following everything Frank's doing. He's a better person than he is an analyst.

And, you know, we appreciate everything he does for the fantasy community. You know, you see him in person. He's the same happy, outgoing. It's tremendous. You know, he met my son, welcome him with open arms. And it's just awesome stuff. But, yeah, Reliever Recon, I mean, we've already put out, I don't even, I can't even count how many. But there's eight player profiles already on the site.

I do like the new collections tab on Patreon. I let you do stuff. And yesterday I published all 30 teams, my projections for the teams as currently constructed with three years worth of data. There's all kinds of, there's more charts than you can shake an eye at. But there's analysis in there. And we're just trying to give you pathways towards saves at this early stage. And I update those projections.

I think last year I did four machinations of them. So I'll probably plan on something similar. It's one thing to read the steamer things, but it's another to say this is the number that they've been producing and this is where I think they're going to get dispersed throughout the season. All right. Awesome stuff. We're going to wrap there for Greg.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. Happy New Year. Make sure you have some fun. Stay healthy as well. We'll be back again next week. Next year.

Bye-bye.