Fantasy Baseball Today - 2023 Starting Pitcher Recap! League-Wide Trends & Top Performers! (12/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 12, 2023

What did the league-wide trends tell us about pitching in 2023 (2:23)? ... Does Scott have an early idea for his 2024 starting pitching strategy (8:05)? ... Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell each won the Cy Young and finished top-3 in Fantasy (14:05). ... Should we worry about how many innings Zac Gallen threw this year (22:58)? ... Justin Steele broke out in a big way (27:59). ... Kyle Bradish was another huge breakout (31:43). ... Chris Bassitt continues to get the job done (38:05). ... Pablo Lopez took the next step with the Twins (45:32). ... We wrap up with the latest news, starting with this record-setting deferred money in the Shohei Ohtani contract (52:10). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. We've reviewed all of the infield positions. We broke down the outfield, which brings us to those mysterious starting pitchers.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, December 12th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White, and today on the show, it is our starting pitcher recap. We'll take a look at some league-wide stats, break down the top 20-ish starting pitchers from this past season, and we have some smaller moves to discuss. No show Hey Otani signing, if you want to hear about that. We did an emergency podcast over the weekend, so make sure to check it out. But we do have like Tyler O'Neill to the Red Sox, the Yankees and Dodgers made a small trade. So we'll break down those things towards the end of the show.

And Scott, I'm just going to jump right in because I have an absurd amount of notes for each player. Obviously, we're not going to get to all of those, but I want to try and dive a little bit deeper and see how far we can go on each of these names. Let's start with just some league-wide trends and a snapshot of pitching for the past three years. ERA over the past three seasons, starting in 2021.

4.27, if you remember, that was the last, season with the juiced ball. It was 3.97 in 2022. So a huge drop, we're like, wow, pitchers are back. They're awesome. And then in 2023, we had 4.33 ERA. That obviously included the pitch clock, shift restrictions, stolen bases are way up. And it looks like the ball was a little bit bouncier,

at least compared to 2022, you know, using like home run to fly ball ratio and all that kind of stuff. If you look at WIPP the past three years, it's been 1.3, 1.27, 1.1. point three one. So not huge changes there, but Scotty, that ERA has, that ERA has jumped around quite a bit over the past three years. And here we got 4.33 in 2020. The highest during that span. Yeah. And it was for slightly different reasons. I mean, home runs did go up again in 2023 from from 2022. But offense was being created in other ways too. There were more hits on balls and play. Obviously, a home run is out of place and more hits on balls in play with the shifting restrictions

happening. There was more action created on the base pass with stolen bases going way up. And so that had a negative influence on the state of pitching. And going even beyond, I think, what we saw at the juiced ball era, at least impacting the high end of the pitcher pool more than in the juiced ball era. Because during the juiced ball era, when offense was primarily created through home runs, you had some pitchers who could limit damage just by missing bats,

by keeping the ball on the ground. They're created a larger disparity, a larger gap between the halves and have-nots at the position. But that disparity shrank in 2023. This is the formation of the glob, the infamous glob that we talked, about so much during the second half of the season. And I don't know if it's entirely because the rule changes or, you know, with some of the high-end pitchers,

they just stopped striking out so many hitters, which was weird. So maybe it may have been more just something that happened to happen to the highest-end pitchers that made it. So all at once, just by some fluke, they stopped striking out so many batters and became less dominant for that reason. It may have been a confluence of events, is what I'm saying. You know, they've been cracking down harder on the sticky substance ban every year, and maybe it was that taking effect. It's hard to pin down exactly what happened to the state of pitching, but the bottom line is the top of the rankings wasn't nearly as dominant as we've seen in a long time.

But basically the entire approach to pitching has to change, unless you think it was just a total fluke one-off year, that as opposed to the start of a new trend. And, you know, as you pointed out, you know, starting pitching, it was less reliable. I mean, obviously up top, again, you mentioned that. There were more blow-ups this year. Again, it's the shift restrictions, posing batters getting on base,

and then just, you know, creating more offense. Stolen bases, a player moves over. And then more hits getting through. You obviously see that reflect. in the whip as well. And a much bigger middle class, which, you know, you kind of infamously called the glob throughout the season. And you brought up some interesting stats towards the end of the year,

kind of reflecting this as well. So if you use fantasy points per game on CBS, the head-to-head point scoring format, if you look at starting pitchers with 18 plus fantasy points per game, there were only two this year that average 18 or more. in 2022, there were eight of those. So four times that amount. So obviously there were more aces. They were better up top.

They were more reliable. Starting pitchers with 17 plus fantasy points per game. There were only two. The two that I already mentioned, that also averaged 18 fantasy points per game. I believe it was Garrett-Colon strider this year. In 2022, that number doubled from the previous one. 16, 16 starting pitchers with 17 plus fantasy points.

That sums it up right now, right there. Yeah. 2023, just two pitchers with 17 or more points. In 2022, it was 16. And that's the upper class is gone at the position. And I will point out because people will say, okay, well, if 2022 it was the deadened baseball, it makes sense that there was a higher number of dominant pitchers.

You go back to 2021, the last year of the juice ball era. And let's see, I'm counting one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. Like, there were a lot of pitchers averaging, averaging, averaging averaging 17 or more points that year, too. Yeah. So it really was an oddity for 2023. Yeah.

And then, you know, if we look at that middle class and we try and figure out, I mean, these are arbitrary numbers that I'm using. But if you look at starting pitchers that were between 11 and 16 fantasy points per game, there were 44 in 2022. There were 59 of those in 2020. So again, all of those pitchers that were not up top got pushed down into the middle, into that glob of starting pitcher. And that's kind of where we're at right now. Scott, since the season has ended, you've done your rankings, you've had a chance to look at things.

Have you surmised anything from pitching this past year? Have you used any of the data to figure out maybe what you want to do next year? Or if there's a constant theme among the pitchers that you found that were successful or anything like that? because I'm still kind of working through it myself, to be honest. Yeah, so I'm a little reluctant to make it all about 2023 because it was such an oddity and I can't pin down the exact reason why it changes. I have a bunch of theories and I laid out some of the potential variables already. And to be fair, with Major League Baseball, we never know.

We never know what could change. So I have nailed down the approach I want to take. take and I was satisfied with the way our first mock draft went using this approach. It does mean that my pitching rankings are going to be, there's going to be a clearer distinction between my pitching rankings and maybe the industry as a whole than usual. Mine are going to look kind of weird by comparison, but it is by design.

And it is with the, my mind on, my mindset here is to simplify things, to get back to basics at starting pitcher. to really fixate on what is the biggest difference maker there to give myself the best chance of standing out from the glob. And that's strikeouts. And it's not just an upside thing. It's partly that, yes, the pitchers who miss more bats, who avoid damage on contact by preventing contact altogether.

If more contact is causing more problems with the shift ban, best just to prevent contact altogether. And of course, we've always known that's the case. But it's also, strikeouts are the most predictable thing. Coming off a year where there were these extreme swings in performance by every pitcher at all levels, like they could dominate or get roughed up for eight runs is kind of the, I theorize it was kind of a, like, it was easier to, for things to kind of snowball and spiral out of control for them with so many more base runners.

And that's why you saw these extreme fluctuations from one start to the next. But coming off that year of so much unpredictability at starting pitcher, I want to know what I'm getting when I draft it. And strikeouts, I think, are the thing you can predict the most from year to year because it's something a pitcher has direct control over. strikeouts he gets. So if you target strikeouts, and I'm thinking specifically for Roto League, if you emphasize strikeouts above all else, you'll probably win strikeouts. Like, you can kind of take that to the bank. And it's very likely you'll end up with a better

ERA and whip too, just because, again, the pitchers who are missing more bats have the higher overall upside. If they're avoiding contact altogether, they're going to, they improve their chances of avoiding damage. So I'm emphasizing strikeouts. It's above all else in my pitching rankings. And that's why they're going to look a little weird. And while I agree with that, I think that that makes perfect sense. The problem that I've run into when, I've already done two drafts, like drafts that I'm actually going to play out,

is the pitchers that get the most strikeouts or have the highest strikeout rate, let's say, or the highest swinging strike rate, K-minus walk rate, stuff like that. A lot of them are pitchers that come with risks. I mean, obviously, look, all pitchers come with risk, but these are names that come with more injury risk, like a Tyler Glass now, or even like a Tariq Scouble, who we haven't necessarily seen do it over the course of like a full season,

like 180 plus innings or anything, or Freddie Peralta who has a history of shoulder troubles, right? So these are the kind of problems that I'm running into, like, yeah, we all like strikeouts, but obviously some of those names are really risky as well. And that's kind of where I was in, I don't know, more recent years, the past five or six years kind of looking for that, trying to find a market efficiency since the rest of the analytical world had caught up to the strikeouts thing that, you know, I was pushing many, many years ago. And durability was something that I really focused on in

recent years. And I had some success with it, not as much as I would have liked. And last year just basically destroyed it because the glob was so vast and so like hard to break free from that investing in durability just didn't give you any kind of advantage it felt like. Like my pitching performances in my leagues, particularly the roto leagues, were just so random. And I'm trying to break free of that randomness by giving my, myself more upside. And yes, there is some more risk

for each individual pitcher you take, obviously not throughout the rankings, you know, but you get to the middle stages of the draft. The reason those big strikeout guys are going there is because

there's more risk with them. But if you have to fall back on a glob guy during the season, like you're not really losing anything. That's my theory with it anyway. Obviously, the deeper the league is, if you're talking like some of those 15 team leagues,

okay, globy pitchers out there on the waiver wire over the course of the season. It's going to be pretty rare anyway. But if you're talking about a 12 teamer, yeah, those globy guys are going to be popping up constantly on waivers. All right. So let's get into the top 20 or so from this past season. We'll try and review as many of these names as possible. And I'll throw them your way, Scott, in terms of trios. Obviously, we can talk it out. There's a lot to say about each of these pitchers. But the number one pitcher this past season was Garrett Cole, who just wanted to the first Siyang of his career, the American League Siyang winner, now 33 years old,

263 ERA, a 0.98 whip, 222 strikeouts, over 209 innings pitched. And he did it in a different way, not as dominant as on a per inning basis. We saw the strikeout rate drop, the swinging strike rate came way down. I mean, we're talking about 11.7 percent lowest we've seen since 2017, which was his final year in Pittsburgh. So lowered the strikeouts, but what he did well was limit the home runs, which has been a huge problem with him for the Yankees over the past couple of seasons.

So he did it in a different way, but overall, obviously, it worked for Garrett Cole. The number two pitcher was Spencer Strider, who obviously the ERA was inflated, 386. The whip still solid at 109, led baseball with 281 strikeouts. All the peripherals say that he should have been much better than he actually was with that 386 ERA.

The home run rate doubled, more than doubled this past season for Spencer Strider. I do wonder if the innings jump from 2022 to 2023 maybe kind of affected him down the stretch and inflated that second half ERA. And then Blake Snell, who is the other Salympa in the National League, he just put up a 225 ERA, a 119 whip, 234 strikeouts,

just the second time in his career that he has had more than 130 innings pitched in a season. Think about that. I mean, Blake Snow has been around for a while now. The two times he's done it, he's won the Salle Young in each of those seasons. But man, there's a lot to talk about with the control being an issue, led the league in walks, 4.95 walks per nine. I know I'm kind of pointing out some of the bad things with Blake Snell.

Obviously, he was awesome. And his repertoire, like the secondary pitches are so, so good. Maybe that walk rate just doesn't matter. Currently a free agent, so we'll see where he winds up. But lots of talk about with each of these names, Scott, Garikohl, Spencer Shrider, and Blake Snell, your top three. Not your top three, the top three from this past season. Well, yeah, and I want to focus especially on Cole and Strider here because they're the two, right?

There were the two who finished with 17 or more points per game, and they also happened to be more than 18 points per game. And so since there were the two, think about this, because this kind of really sums up the state of pitching in 20203. They were far and away the best two pitchers for fantasy. And yet Garrett Cole had his worst year in like five years. his strikeouts were way down. And Spencer Strider had horrible ERA luck, an ERA pushing four, even though, as you say,

the ERA estimators were all more around three. So horrible ERA luck for one guy, diminished strikeout production for the other guy, and yet they were far and away the best two pitchers in fantasy. So that's kind of what we're looking at here with the entire pitching pool is, is there's just not that slam dunk starter out. He's just not available.

Now, I do think Strider needs to be the clear number one because you're hoping those ERA estimators are a better indicator of what he looks like forward than the actual ERA was. And somebody who watched a lot of Spencer Strider starts, I know he was often cruising. and then there would be an inning where a runner would happen to get on for some kind of fluky reason,

maybe a second run or two, and then there's like a three-run homer, you know? And just he'd have an inning that would ruin him. And a lot of times pitchers can overcome that. He's still early in his career. But the bottom line is he had 44 more strikeouts than anybody else. He also had three more wins than anybody else.

Not that wins are the most predictable thing, but you would think pitching for the Braves ahead of that offense. striders always going to get the run support to win a lot of games. So clear number one for next year, and I don't think you're going to see too much dissent as far as that goes. And normally I'd be worried about that decline in strikeout production for Cole. He's 33, you know, not a young guy. But where else do you turn here for the number two starting pitcher?

You know, other high-end types like Corbyn Burns saw their strikeout production go down. There isn't enough reason to turn away from Garrett Cole given what the rest of the position looks like. So I'm not sure I'm going to be the one drafting Garrett Cole in round two in all likelihood is what it'll be. But I do think he's the pitcher who needs to be drafted there if one is going to be. Yeah. And with Garrett Cole, while the strikeouts came down, I mean, the ratios were still elite, right? 263 ERA, 0.98 whip. And we're now talking about sustained excellence for Gary Cole. Since 2018, he has a 293 ERA and a .99 whip.

So he's just done it for so long. I think it's kind of the benefit of the doubt here as the SP2. I think some people might try and make the SP1 argument. That won't be me. But yeah, I think those two are very clearly the top two in ADP this upcoming season. With Blake Snell, I think we'll wait until he signs this offseason where we can kind of talk more about his landing spot because, look, if he goes to somewhere like Boston, I'm not sure that that's going to be the best thing for Blake Snell's

fantasy value with the green monster there. So we'll wait on him, but just wanted to point out how great he was. Allowed six earned runs on May 19th. He allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his final 23 starts. Two earned runs or fewer in 21 of 23 of those starts, a 120 ERA total over his final 23 starts. Well, and I do want to talk about him a little because it does seem like the changeup in curveball contributed to that. Like, he struggled with those two pitches to the point that his turnaround in previous years,

remember he had that dramatic turnaround late in the season in both 2021 and 2022. It was kind of from ditching that and just going fastball slider. But those pitches, the change up in curveball, took off for Snell this past year and gave him a rounded arsenal of dominant pitches. And that may have been enough to overcome the walk rate. I gave him a hard time all year for walking five per nine and saying, will we ever see a S.I. Young winner do that again. But I was surprised in putting together my rankings.

You know, if my focus is going to be on strikeouts, if I'm emphasizing that over everything else, I was kind of surprised that I ended up ranking Snell as high as I do. Not that he's third for me, but he's in the top 10, and I ended up taking him in our first mock draft as, what was it, my second starting pitcher? So I might end up drafting more Snell than I thought. And if nothing else, you know,

he's going to give you that big strikeout number. when he's healthy, and you can count on him helping to carry you in that category. When he's healthy, right? He's another one where he's, for the most part in his career, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. So, I mean, he did it in a contract year. Will he be able to do it again in 2024? I guess we'll find out on Blake's now. Let's take our first break when we return.

We'll get into the rest of the pitchers here. Zach Gallen was the number four starter. So we'll lead off with him, and we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's continue recapping the top. Top 20 or so starting pitchers from this past season. Number four was Zach Gallen, who just had a 347 ERA, a 112 whip,

and career best control that we saw from Zach Gallen this season. Did kind of regress in the second half, not as good in the postseason. I worry a little bit about the innings jumps. If you combine his regular and postseason, 243 and two-thirds innings this year for Zach Gallen. I mean, that is a huge jump year over year. Number five was Luis Castillo, who actually on today, December 12th, it is his birthday.

Happy birthday, Luis Castillo turns 31 years old, a 334 ERA, a 110 whip, has been rock solid since joining the Mariners. The control actually has gotten better over the past several seasons, and the swinging strike rate still elite. 14.7% swinging strike rate tied for third best among qualified starting pitchers for Lurface. Luis Castillo. And here's your surprise, Scott. Zach Eflin has your number six starting pitcher this past season. He had an ADP of 282 before the season. So a true league winner, career year, first season in Tampa Bay, 350 ERA, a 102 whip.

We are talking about pristine control here. 1.22 walks per nine. That was a career best. But he's now been under two walks per nine, three years in a row. So it seems like that is a legitimate skill. for Zach Eflin. Can he carry it over? Can he stay healthy?

He's had lots of knee injuries throughout his career as well. Three more big names, Scott. Zach Allen, Luis Castillo, Zach Eflin. One of these, probably not like the other

in terms of rankings. Well, yeah, I mean, I think after Spencer Strider and Garrett Cole at the top of the pitcher rankings, there are five others who, I think it's fair

to consider true aces, at least whatever that means in today's, context and Zach Gallen and Luis Castillo would be among them. Zach Eflin,

I can't put him there. I can't put him there. And what's funny about it is for as good as he was finishing sixth as the number six starting pitcher this past year, he actually underperformed his expected stats

quite a bit as well, like we said for Strider. Zach Eflin had a 350 ERA, that's compared to a 311 XERA and a 301 FIP. Yep. And yet, I'm a little skeptical. I'm a little skeptical. I'm trying to remember why I'm skeptical. I think just because it's, you know, Zach Eflin.

And there's, I feel like there's a ceiling to what he can do in terms of strikeouts. He did have more than a strikeout per inning in this first year with Tampa Bay. But I don't know. There are other pitchers I liked more. So he got pushed down in my rank. case. Yeah, no, I would agree with that. To me, it's really the workload. We haven't really seen this out of Zach Eflin much in his career. He's only exceeded 160 innings twice. And as I mentioned, he does have a long history of injuries to both of his knees. So I do kind of worry about that long

term for Zach Eflin. Was there anything you wanted to add on Gallin and Castillo? Because I saw you made a face when I mentioned how many innings he threw this past season, going from 184 in 2022 to two 243 and two-thirds this past season, kind of faded a little bit in the second half, wasn't as good, not as good in the postseason either. Gallin is a name, an early kind of standout for me, where I think I'm going to rank him lower, probably than the rest of the industry

and maybe versus ADP too, just because I'm kind of worried about that workload. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, I said there were, you know, the two at the top stridering coal, than five others, including Gallant. Gallin is the last of those five for me, and he's the one I'm most,

I'm most unsure of being an actual ace in fantasy, because in addition to those, that big spike in workload, that all those extra innings taken on in the postseason, that was average exit velocity is high. His swinging strike rate is low. He's just not, he just doesn't dominate in the way you'd normally think an ace would dominate.

It's really that workload. that's setting up apart more than anything else. So if you're factoring in some injury risk by him throwing four more, I think there's bust potential there with Zach Allen. I think it's possible. I'll still run 7th, but there's some bust potential there. Yeah. And Luis Castillo, for me, I really do think he's rock solid.

And looking at your ranks, you have Corbyn Burns at SP5. I think I'm probably going to have Castillo ranked inside of the top five. but I mean, we're splitting hairs, and we'll get to Corbyn Burns in just a little bit. But another name that I am a little bit skeptical of myself. Number seven, Kevin Gosman this past season, turns 33 in January. So getting up there a little bit,

he still has been, you know, one of the most consistent, I would say, over the past three seasons, a 316 ERA, a 118 whip this past year. 237 strikeouts second most in all of baseball for Kevin Gosman. Zach Wheeler just finishes the eighth starting pitcher. and he's getting up there as well. Turns 34 in May.

It is a contract year for him. He had a 361 ERA, a 108 whip. He has been a workhorse the past three years if you combined postseason and regular season. He's starting 188 and two-thirds or more innings in three straight for Zach Wheeler. He actually got better in the second half too. I really like Zach Wheeler.

Zach Wheeler might be like my SP3 ranked coming into 2024. He's just... He's four for me. He's four. He's so good. And then number of, Number nine is Justin Steele, who was a huge breakout this year.

He had an ERA similar to an ADP rather, excuse me, similar to Zach Eflin. So like a true breakout, that ADP was close to 300 entering this past year. And he had a 306 ERA, a 117 whip. Kind of does it in a different way, Scott. It's a two-pitch pitcher coming from the left-hand side. It's a really good slider. It's a high spin-ray fastball. But it's not big velocity.

I mean, we're talking 91, 92 miles per hour, but obviously just does a really good job hiding that fastball with deception and the control improved dramatically. Can he carry that over a year from year? I think that remains to be seen. So three more names here. Kevin Gosman, Zach Wheeler,

they're part of that group of that top seven. Justin Steele is somebody who won't be. You're right. That is true. Gosman is my number three because of the strikeouts. So when in doubt favor the strikeout guy, He had 237 and 185 innings. And no shortage of double-digit strikeout efforts. And was just really good, really good.

I think Kevin Gosman, if I'm going to pay up for an ace and not going to pay like the Spencer Strider, Garrett Cole costs because you would be giving up an MVP caliber hitter to draft one of them, I think Kevin Gosman is going to wind up being the ace, a lot of my fantasy teams. His, okay, so I have the actual number here. Eight double-digit swinging strike, sorry, eight-double-digit strikeout efforts

from Kevin Gosman's second-only to Spencer Strider. We talked about Wheeler. He did have a 361 ERA this past year, which was his highest in four seasons with the Phillies, but it was 308 in the second half. His expected ERA for the year was 321. His FIP was 315. I want to hold that ERA against him.

He's a workhorse, and he gives you enough strikeouts that, yeah, I think we can think of him as an ace. Steel, in a different category, I would say. But he got overlooked a bit in our first mock, and I ended up drafting him. What he did in 2023, I think, was basically his best Max-Fried impression. High ground ball rate, very low walk rate,

leading to a good ERA. Like, ERA was his specialty. And the strikeout numbers weren't that. impressive, but he was able to keep that approach going all season. I think the innings caught up with him toward the end, and his ERA went up a little bit, but it was still great. And I think he makes for a fine number two type starter in fantasy. I have him 21 in my rankings for next year, so he's in that range.

All right, let's continue on here. The number 10 starting pitcher was Kyle Bradish, who finished with a 283 ERA, a 104 whip, and he lowered the walks considerably year over year. 3.5 walks per 9 in 2022. Drop that down to 2.4 this past season. He also cut the home runs. For those who care, Enosaris's Stuff Plus metric, Kyle Bradish ranked second among all qualified starting pitchers

behind only Corbyn Burns. So the stuff definitely plays up. We saw the change in the pitch makes lower that fastball usage and through more sliders, more curveballs, and both of those pitches are elite for Kyle Braddish. The number 11 starting pitcher was Logan Webb, who put up a 325 ERA, a 107 whip, and he has become one of the preeminent, I would say,

workhorses in the game now. 216 innings pitch led all starting pitchers, put up the career best control of his career. Does it make sense? Career, best control of his career. Who's even talking here, Scott? And elite ground ball specialist, 62% ground ball rate for Logan Webb.

So he does give up hard contact, but a lot of it is into the ground. So obviously that helps. And then George Kirby, who is entering the prime of his career, turns 26 in February, just put up a 335 ERA, a 104 whip,

the best control artist in all of baseball. He walked 19 batters over 31 starts this year. And something interesting I noticed with Kirby, strikeout rate went up in the second half from 7.4 walks per 9 to 9 strikeouts per 9 so 1 per inning K percentage also went up

and I noticed that started using the splitter more and there was an interview with George Kirby where he said he found out how to use a splitter from watching Pitching Ninja interview Kevin Gossman so pitching ninja had Kevin Gossman

on his show. Kevin Gossman's talking about how he throws a splitter. That's how George Kirby figured it out, and then he started using his splitter 11% of the time in the second half. And it's a really good pitch for him. So I wonder if there's like sneaky strikeout upside if he starts to use that pitch more. So I don't know. That's like I'm kind of excited about George Kirby. But any thoughts on him like Logan Webb and Kyle Bradish, man? Braddish is an interesting one too. This is a fun group. Well, Logan Webb is my highest ranked for next season. And I think some people might be inclined to put him

among that group of seven at the top right there with Zach Allen. I mean, he was just what? Runner up for NL. I Young this past year was Logan Webb. And he does deliver the big workload,

more innings than anybody else in 2023. So this is one I'm going to be out of step with with everyone else because of the strikeout. So even though he had the major league leading 216 innings, Fewer than 200 strikeouts. So he just doesn't have the strikeout upside that I'm looking for in an ace, which is why I rank him only 15th for next year.

Still the highest ranked of these three, but probably not as high as everybody else is going to have Logan Webb. And I understand, like, he's probably good at run prevention without league-leading ground ball rate, great control, and he's done it for a few years now. But I want strikeouts. If I'm going to spend a lot on a starting pitcher, that means that's going to prevent me from drafting another starting pitcher. I want my investment in pitching to be devoted to strikeouts.

So I'm purposely downgrading Logan Webb for that. I really like Kyle Bradish. Obviously, he's not going to be as costly as Logan Webb next year. But I think it's going to surprise people how he's valued in fantasy. He was my biggest back when we did the breadsticks, my end of year rewards. Kyle Bradish, you might remember, was my biggest breakthrough. And over his final 18 starts, he had a 224 ERA.92 whip 9.6K per 9. You mentioned the stuff.

It rates high, and it rated high going into this past year, too. You know, Saris's stuff plus metrics. Kyle Bradish scored high on that then. And that's what kind of put him on my radar initially because I wasn't blown away by the numbers. But now the numbers back it up. and I think Kyle Bradish with a good home venue, a great supporting cast, I think he could be a really reliable pitcher

at a time when there aren't many reliable pitchers. So I'm high on Bradish for next year, 21st in my rank, or 22nd in my rankings, I should say. The thing with Kirby and the splitter is interesting. He's still, even in the second half, when he has to use it, still highly fastball reliance. So I don't know if I'm ready to predict that. changing so much. He does seem like the kind of pitcher I'm not going to be as invested in

since the strikeout rate is a little underwhelming. But he throws a ton of strikes and is able to work deep into games because of that. It's kind of the kind of pitcher I might have prioritized in the past, but I'm going to less so now. He's 17th for me. So I still haven't ranked ahead of Kyle Bradish. But not by much. Yeah, I think it depends how people want to build their pitching staffs because I agree with your premise of wanting to get pitchers with higher swinging strike rates and strikeout ability. But I mean, if you tell yourself you want to get one of these, I guess, workhorse anchors up top, someone who you know is going to be a positive contributor and whip like a Logan Webb or George Kirby and then kind of take your risks after that

on some of those like higher strikeout upside guys. I don't know. Like a Terrick Scoobal or Freddie Peralta. I don't even know if it's going to work out that. I mean, I have scuba ranked ahead of all these guys. I mean, I guess you could do the opposite. I'll have already taken him by the time. You could go like scubel and then back it up with a Kirby who's a little bit safer, something like that. It'll come down to roster construction, but the splitter thing is interesting. And it's something I want to read more about this off season and find out during spring training. Is this something that Kirby plans to use more? Because if so, then I do think that there's a little bit more strikeout upside than maybe meets the eye at first glance. 13 starting pitcher this past season. Not really sure how. It's kind of crazy. Chris Bassett was your 13th best starting pitcher

in fantasy. A 360 ERA, a 118 whip. Ah, I figured it out, Scott. 16 wins. That'll help with the ranking this past season for Chris Bassett. Say what you want about the guy. He's not a sexy starting pitcher. He doesn't give you all the gaudy strikeouts.

But he has been consistent. If you look at his ERA, eliminate the short in 2020 because that was like an outlier, very low ERA for him. He has been between 315 and 3.81 each of his last four full seasons. That's a solid pitcher. And that's kind of who Chris Bass it is. He also turns 35 years old in February.

So we'll see. For Amber Valdez, a tough one here, man. I'm trying to dig in and learn as much as I can about him to see what went wrong in that second half because it was bad, Scotty. a 345 ERA, a 113 whip overall. But if you remember, over his final 15 starts, Framber Valdez, a 455 ERA and a 122 whip. The control got much worse during that span as well.

He suffered a right ankle sprain on July 1st. And I kept referencing that because basically after that is when everything kind of imploded for him. He didn't blame it on that. I can't find any quotes about it, so it's just purely speculation on my part. but I kind of feel like maybe that contributed to Frambervalde's having a bad second half. Maybe it was just natural regression for him.

And then number 15 was Logan Gilbert this past season, who had a 373 ERA, a 108 whip. He has thrown 190 plus innings two years in a row. Problem for him, he gives up a lot of hard contact, has some issues with home runs. So I think he's probably going to be in like the higher three's ERA range. But the whip is good. The strikeouts are solid. I think he's in that kind of, you know, Justin. steel, Kyle Braddish,

solid SP2 range. That is Logan Gilbert. Scott. Any thoughts on him, Valdez? And Chris Bassett, your 13th best pitcher this past season. Yeah, you said Chris Bassett wasn't sexy.

None of these guys are sexy to me. And sexy is what I'm all about next year. I'm bringing sexy back, like Justin Timberlake. And so all three of these guys are probably going to be ranked lower for me than for the consensus. I'm surprised how much benefit of the doubt

from Ber Valdez has been getting. and really, Aaronola too. That hasn't gone like I hoped it would because I still like Aaronola quite a bit. I still think he's potentially sexy, but it's not so much Frumber Valdez. And what I noticed with Valdez

is his ground ball rate plummeted. I mean, it was still among the best in baseball at 54%, but he's usually up there with Logan Webb. I mean, 65, 70% even. And so I think, you know, he had success early in the year with the cutter was getting more strikeouts because of it looked like a potential Sy-Young contender

and I don't know if he just lost the feel for that pitch. Maybe it had to do with the ankle like you said, but he didn't, he was more vulnerable to damage because he wasn't allowing as many ground balls. Maybe that'll change, but if it changes, he's not getting as many strikeouts and therefore he's not sexy.

So I'm just not, look, he's in my top, what is he? I have him 18th for next year from Braveldez. but again, that's probably lower than most people are going to have him

and so I don't expect to draft him much. Gilbert. Gilbert feels like he is like he is perceived to be better than he is.

I feel like because he's less than a strikeout per inning. The RA was kind of high because of his vulnerability to the long ball. You know, he's,

He's somebody who you can trust to start, like a must-start player, and maybe he'll remain as durable as he's been so far. But I think he's closer to the Chris Bassett class than not. I rank him ahead of Bassett. But I'm not going to be especially eager to draft Logan Gilbert next year. I'm 27th. Yeah, I mean, this is what I'm finding to be so interesting about starting pitcher, again, is trying to find that pitcher that kind of blends the safety of innings.

with the strikeout upside or strikeout ability, and it's, it kind of feels like it's tough to find, right? It's got like... Well, then it's an ace, right? Exactly, yeah. You have to do one or the other, and I think it's more likely a Logan Gilbert

is going to sink back. Well, like, I feel like a Logan Gilbert type pitcher who's mostly excelling on volume, 185 innings, is not that much better than a gloppy pitcher. pitcher or at least the margin between, like, what it would take for him to drop into the glob is very small. And so maybe a high strikeout guy has more like just out and out bust potential than a Logan Gilbert.

Maybe a Cole Reagan's, for instance, has more out and out bust potential than a Logan Gilbert. But again, I think in a standard size league, 12 teams are fewer, as big as that glob is, you're going to be able to manage your way. through that if he busts. If you make a big investment in a Cole Reagan's or a Terrick Scuba and he busts, you're going to be able to navigate that easier than if you just don't go after those guys at all and have to make do with with Logan Gilbert's at the top of your rotation. And I don't mean to pick on Logan Gilbert by using it as the example, but you know,

just who we happen to be talking about right now. Right. I think I have to recalibrate my mind a little bit because the first two drafts I've done this offseason have been 15 team leagues. And I do play in a lot of 15s. And I know most people play in like 10 or 12 team leagues. And I play in a lot of 12 team leagues as well. So I think I just have to recalibrate. I'm thinking too much about like getting volume right now. Where am I going to get my volume from? And maybe that's why I'm putting a little bit more emphasis on those pitchers. But we still have some time, Scott. Maybe things will change again next year and, you know, the volume guys will have proven to be better. Like, Logan Gilbert is a glob pitcher.

It's not just the volume that he, that helps him stand out. It's the whip, too. He's so good at throwing strikes. He had a 107 or 108, excuse me, whip this past year, a year when whips were up across the league. So I don't want to give people the wrong impression. I don't want to say Logan Gilbert is part. of the glob, but I don't think he's going to distinguish you as much from the glob as a strikeout guy well. I'll save this for another day, but I think a topic point that I want to hit on is maybe the

possibility of whenever you take a quote unquote risky strikeout pitcher, you kind of pair him with one of these volume guys, but then even that, I don't know if that's the right way to do it. Again, I'm still kind of like working through my strategy for next year, but, you know, take like a Tyler Glass now, then maybe you take a Framber Valdez to kind of offset some of the volume concerns. Or that's just kind of how my brain is looking at it right now, but I'm not sure

if that's the right answer yet. We'll find out. The number 16th starting pitcher this past season was Pablo Lopez, who had a career year, first season with the Minnesota Twins, 366 ERA, a 115 whip, 234 strikeouts, tied for third best in all of baseball. The twins really helped him take that next step. We saw a Vlauble.

jump on the fastball. We saw a brand new sweeper, which was an awesome pitch for Pablo Lopez. And he's now managed to stay healthy for 180 plus innings two years in a row. So not saying that those shoulder concerns are completely behind him, but he's managed to stay healthy. So you feel a little bit more comfortable with that. Number 17, the aforementioned Corbyn Burns, who finished with a 339 ERA and a 107 whip. I can tell you, as someone who had Burns on multiple teams, it felt a lot worse than what the final numbers look like. The final numbers look okay. But while it was going on, it felt a lot worse than it actually was. We now have a three-year trend scout where strikeouts and walks are going in completely opposite directions for Corbyn Burns.

And that is something that scares me. I know he's entering a contract year, but I typically don't like to see something like that for Corbyn Burns swinging strike rate down to 12.2% this season, which again, it's good compared to others, but it's not Corbyn-Berns-like levels we've seen in the past. And then Kodi Asanga was the 18th best starting pitcher this past season. First year with the Mets, and he was very good. 298 ERA, 122 whip, just over 200 trycouts this past season. We know the control was a problem, Scott,

but did improve quite a bit in the second half of the season. So we've got an interesting group here. Pablo Lopez coming off the breakout. Corbyn Burns, Z is still trusted. as an ace, and Kodi Asanga, who just had a breakout first season with the Mets. And now we're talking. I like these pitchers more than the last trio. We'll start with Burns because he is the name we're missing from that top seven.

I have him fifth for next year. Sort of like Garrett Cole, he did take a step back with the strikeouts, and that would be more of a red flag if the rest of the pitching ranks looked better than they do. I think Burns has a bit more of an excuse, and maybe this is why it feels worse, is because he started so poorly, and we just tend to remember the start of the season more, I feel like, either the start or the end,

those of us who are still playing until the end. His velocity was down early on, his strikeouts were way down. The velocity normalized over time, and in the second half, Corbyn's had a 271 ERA, a 0.99 whip, and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings,

which sounds a lot better. It sounds ace-like. He only had a three-and-three record in those 14 starts. So it didn't feel as, like, because he only got three wins out of those 14 starts as good as they were. So it didn't quite have the fantasy impact that it should have, which is probably why he's down here at 17th.

But I think the ratios, if you're not comparing them to past Corbyn Burns, you're just comparing them to other starting pitchers. Corbin Burns still looks like an ace. And so I'm still ranking him like an ace at 5th for next year. Pablo Lopez. is great. He's better than this.

He's better than 16th where he finished. So Spencer Strider was obviously distant number one in strikeouts. We talked about Kevin Gosman, number two. Blake Snell, the N. L.S.I. Young winner, tied for third in strikeouts, with Pablo Lopez, 234. And there's a reason why Pablo Lopez had so many more strikeouts. He went for being a fastball change-up guy to interest. introducing this new sweeper that itself was a,

that itself was a huge swing and miss pitch to go along with that change up. And, you know, his expected ERA, his FIP were both much better than his actual ERA. I think he's going to pitch more to that ERA next year. Lopez for me, number 12 pitcher for next year. Kodai Sank is my number 13 pitcher for next year just because I like them strikeouts. And he proved himself to be one of the best bat messers in the game. with that ghost fork. His K-per-9 rate was tremendous.

He did walk too many guys, but it got better over the course of the season. ERA, all the numbers got better over the course of the season, but the walks most significantly, it's going to remain an issue for him. I think you're drafting Kodai Sango with the understanding that your whip might suffer a little bit because of it, but the strikeouts are worth it,

and I think he's going to keep the ERA down too. Yeah, that ghost forkball, by the way, for Kodi-Sing, just to put some numbers on it, a 110 batting average against 26.8% swinging strike rate on that ghost forkball. To put that in perspective, Spencer Strider led all of baseball with like a 19% swinging strike rate. Kodai Senga's ghost forkball, 26.8% swinging strike rate. It's just an amazing, amazing pitch, one of the best in baseball, and he was really, really fun to watch his first season with the New York Mets. Let's take our final break, Scott.

And when we return, we will talk about some of the news and notes. We'll wrap up on the starting pitcher side for now. We'll talk about some rankings coming up on the next couple of podcasts. But let's take this break and we'll get to some news and notes right after this. Welcome back in. Let's wrap up with some news and notes. I know we typically get some news and notes earlier on, but I didn't want to break up the starting pitcher action. Anyway, can we just quickly talk about this Otani deferred money thing?

because we did our emergency podcast the other day. We didn't have specific numbers yet. We heard reports unprecedented amount of deferrals in this contract. I mean, my gosh, Scott, $680 million of the $700 million that Otani is owed will be deferred until the end of the deal.

So Otani will be paid $2 million per year for the next 10 seasons, which wouldn't fly for most players in baseball, but it will be for Otani. Obviously, it makes a bunch of money on like sponsorships and all field stuff. But this is pretty insane. Like we've never seen anything like this. Seems like a very clear loophole in like the collective bargaining agreement.

And I have to imagine more teams are going to try and do something like this following what we just saw in this Otani contract. I would have to think so unless it's outlawed. I kind of think it should be outlawed because nobody seems happy. You can't let the Dodgers get away with it and then outlawed, right? That doesn't feel fair. Well, I don't know. At some point, you have to step in for the good of the game. And maybe it won't become so widespread.

So, I mean, initially, you know, I saw arguments from people who basically said it was a bad deal for Otani. I mean, obviously, it's better to get the full 700 million over 10 years than to get it over 20 years. but it basically comes out to more like a $450 million deal because of the time value of money basically. And I don't know how accurately you can predict it. Frankly, it feels like a pretty volatile time for the U.S. economy in general. So I don't know. I'm a little reluctant to state how much $680 million is going to be worth 10 years from now. you know, 10 to 20 years from now versus how much is worth right now.

I'm a little reluctant to speculate myself. But because it's kind of, okay, it was announced to 700 million, but it's not really 700 million because so much of is deferred. And because it gives the Dodgers a loophole around the penalties and kind of eliminates the opportunity cost of giving this big contract Otani because it's not going to prevent them from adding in the short term. It gives them a real competitive advantage there. It doesn't seem like the owners should be happy about it. Doesn't seem like the players should be happy about it. It doesn't seem like anybody really wins in this deal

except for the Dodgers themselves. And so that seems like a bad thing. And maybe if that is true, then maybe we won't see a glut of other players accepting deals like this. Maybe it was just a one-off with Otani who makes a ton of money in marketing. And it's, with, you know, endorsement deals and everything. And so it's not going to really be that upset about missing out on it in the short term. He's just a special player. And so these are special circumstances and not that many others would be willing to defer this much money for this long. But if it does become a trend, I think it's worrisome enough that it won't be for long.

That's my hunch. All right. Well, good for the Dodgers. They have Shohei Otani this upcoming season. Let's move over to a trade that happened last week. The Cardinals acquired Tyler O'Neill. No, that would make sense. The Red Sox acquired Tyler O'Neill

in exchange for right-handed reliever, Nick Robertson, and a lower pitching prospect in Victor Santos. And Tyler O'Neill is now 28 years old coming off yet another injury-riddled season. He hit 231 with nine homers, five steals, and a 715 OPS. He is just two years removed from having that massive season, 34 homers, 15 steals.

Now he gets to Green Monster in left field in Fenway. So could help whenever he's on the field. But even more so, Scott, I think this kind of throws a wrench in some of our excitement for the Red Sox youngsters because now you have Tyler O'Neill in left field, Jaron DeRan Center, roster resource has Willi Arbrew in right field,

Yoshita at DH, and no Ceylon Raphaela. Raphaela could play infield if they want to go that route. Maybe he plays shortstop. Trevor's story to second base. They could find ways to make it work. I'm not sure that they're going to force it,

but this Tyler O'Neill acquisition does kind of throw a wrench in things. Yeah, and I think Rafael is the loser here, as roster resource suggests. Ceylon Raphaela, great defender in centerfield. The minor league numbers look good, but all the scouting reports say his swing decisions are just not up to major league standards yet and swings at too many bad pitches.

we saw the strikeout rate. It was much worse during his time in the majors than it was throughout the minors. And it just still needs work on his offensive game. And so this buys them some time. Williard Brayu is the one I'm more excited about anyway. And he looked great during his time in the majors. And it doesn't sound like this O'Neill signing is going to impact his playing time.

So I'm relieved about that. But given O'Neill's health history, I don't know that you know, and maybe by seasons and Seidon, Raphael is the everyday player for the Red Sox in center field anyway, because O'Neill hasn't, has had trouble staying healthy. And another thing about O'Neill is,

you know, he had that huge breakout season in 2021, looked like he was becoming a fantasy stud. In the two years since then, not only has he had trouble staying healthy, he hasn't met those exit velocities he put up in 2021, not the average exit velocity, not the max exit velocity. There's a little weird.

You'd think the max would be there, at least for O'Neill. And maybe having the green monster, you know, right-handed slugger, it's, it's such an unusual hitting environment that it can have unpredictable effects. And maybe O'Neill will be revitalized in fantasy, but I'm pretty skeptical for all the reasons I've already mentioned.

The early ADP for Tyler O'Neill is 297. He's going just behind Tommy Pham and Sal Freelick, just ahead of Jake Frailey and Austin Hayes. Does that price tag interest you at all? Yeah. Yeah, I like them more than all the guys you mentioned there. Okay. Well, I guess the Royals are going to win the World Series in 2024, Scott,

because they signed reliever Will Smith to a one-year $5 million contract. Will Smith has won the World Series each of the past three years with three different teams. And I think it's a worthwhile gamble for the Royals. I mean, they just did something similar with A Rollis Chapman, and they turned him into Cole Reagan's at the trade deadline, so why not try it again? Will Smith got off to that great start with the Rangers this past season, but wound up with a 440 ERA.

The whip was still solid at 106. Did wind up with 22 saves. He's getting up there in age. The strikeout rate has been dropping consistently for Will Smith, but he has tons of experience, Scott. I think there's a chance he gets the first opportunity to close games out. for the Royals, a bullpen that also features James MacArthur, who looked solid down the stretch,

and Nick Anderson, who has some closing experience. So what do you think on Will Smith here? Well, Smith has become this generation's pitcher whose closing opportunities just won't die because he hasn't really deserved them for four years now, and yet he keeps getting them. The Royals were one of the few teams without a viable candidate to close, really. And their GM, J.J. Piccolo said, finishing games is definitely. why I think Will was so attracted to us, and there's opportunity here to do that. So he'll be bottom of the barrel closer, because I don't think it'll be a particularly good closer. I don't think the Royals will win many games, but he will add some clarity to a back end of a bullpen that had none

and get drafted in deeper rotisserie leagues as a result. By the way, we talked about Shohei Otani. I did want to mention, because when we did our emergency podcast for him, at least I talked about how he was coming back from Tommy John's surgery. I got it in my head that was the procedure he had. And to be honest, there isn't a lot of clarity as to what procedure he had. But based on the descriptions of the procedure he had, it sounds like it wasn't full-blown Tommy John surgery. It was that internal bracing procedure that like Reese Hoskins and Trevor Story have had. and so that that helps explain the optimistic timeline for him returning as a hitter.

I will point out that procedure, the internal bracing procedure, has less of a track record than Tommy John. And, you know, the two examples I gave, Reese Hoskins, okay, it worked out great, Trevor's story. It didn't look so great when he came back from it last year. Don't know if it was the procedure's fault. But I still think it's whether Otani looks like. like Otani at the start of next season is very much in question. A couple of news items to mention here. The Nationals signed Nick Senzel to a one year,

$2 million deal after being non-tendered by the Reds last month. And Senzel had some moments this year as like a waiver wire pickup, but he's now going from Great American Ballpark to Nationals Park. So obviously that's a pretty big downgrade. I don't think there's much to see there with Nick Senzel. The Tiger signed left-handed reliever, Andrew Chafin, to a one-year $4.25 million deal. did pick up eight saves with the debacks,

but then came crashing down. Don't think he'll factor into the back end of the Tigers bullpen. The Marlins acquired catcher Christian Betancourt from the Guardians for cash considerations. Betancourt hit 225 with 11 home runs and a 635 OPS. My guess, as of now, Scott, is that Betancourt is probably ahead of Nick Fortez as like the starter for the Marlins, I guess,

but probably won't matter in anything outside of two catcher leagues. They won't. Okay. After trading Betancourt away, the Guardian signed Austin Hedges to a one-year $4 million deal who offers nothing offensively, but perhaps he does steal at-bats

versus left-handed pitching as a short-side platoon with bow nailer. Max Stassie was traded from the Angels to the Braves last Friday, and then from the Braves to the White Sox on Saturday in exchange for a player to be named later or cash, not both. And if healthy, my guess is that,

Stacey and Corey Lee will form a catcher tandem for the White Sox in 2024. Sure. By the way, it's kind of funny. Like, the Braves have already ended up saving a lot of money that they took on in that Jared Kelnick deal. They've become like the facilitator for getting bad contracts to teams that will appreciate them. And so that's what that Stacey maneuver was about because it freed up. Didn't they were able to get rid of Evan Williams? Evan White that way.

Yeah, Evan White was in that deal. And they already got rid of Marco Gonzalez and the Pirates deal. Yep. Yep. That seems to be their role. There you go. The Braves, they just, you know,

keep on doing Braves things. The Yankees and Dodgers made a small trade. The Yankees acquired left-handed reliever Victor Gonzalez and infield prospect Jorbit Vivas in exchange for shortstop prospect and former first round pick,

Trey Sweeney. It hasn't really worked out for Sweeney so far. This was more so about like 40-man Ross Sermin. manipulation. Is there anything to add here, Scott? Do you have any thoughts on any of those? Nah, not really. They're, you know, Vivas and Sweeney both have some prospect appeal, but it, they're not like high end prospects. And non-transaction related, according to Brian Cashman, Aaron, Judge's toe injury is, quote, a resolved issue. Judge tore a ligament in his right big toe in

June last year. He missed nearly two months. Now it looks like he'll be the Yankees starting center fielder again with Alex Verdugo and left and Juan Soto in right. And lastly, Ronnie Maricio suffered an apparent leg injury in the Dominican Winter League. No other specific information as of now, but something we'll have to watch as the lead-up to spring training because we were pretty excited about Ronnie Maricio as a late-round sleeper next year. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today.

Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we'll be back again Thursday. Bye-bye.